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  • Publication Date: 03-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Abstract: The United States and its allies face a diverse set of challenges to collective security. These include regional or state-centered threats (such as regional aggressors); transnational threats (including terrorism, international crime, drug trafficking, and illicit arms trafficking); the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery; and the spread of dangerous technologies (including non-safeguarded, dual-use technologies). Additional challenges include threats to the environment and public health (e.g., new infectious diseases), and from foreign intelligence collection, failed states, and other states that tolerate or actively engage in human rights abuses, ethnic cleansing, or acts of genocide that can endanger regional stability by sparking civil wars and refugee crises.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: United States, Australia/Pacific
  • Author: John Van Oudenaren
  • Publication Date: 03-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Wilson Center
  • Abstract: Conditionality has become an increasingly prominent feature of international politics in recent years.1 Once mainly associated with the macroeconomic stabilization programs of the IMF, since the collapse of communism it has been used by the EU, NATO, the OECD, and the Council of Europe to promote a variety of political, economic, and social objectives – everything from abolishing the death penalty to privatizing national monopolies. With increased use has come increased controversy. Critics of conditionality argue that it is often applied in ways that ride roughshod over national sovereignty, ignore local circumstances, and impose economic hardship. Others note the frequent inability of recipients of conditional aid to fulfill commitments to international donors. Even when measured by its own narrow objectives, they argue, conditionality often fails.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Stephen Blank
  • Publication Date: 02-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Wilson Center
  • Abstract: As part of NATO's and Europe's continuing and open-ended processes of enlargement and military-political integration, in 1999, NATO presented aspiring members with a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to guide them in their activities preparing their governments and armed forces for membership in NATO. The MAP, if fulfilled according to NATO's requirements and approbation, allegedly would make the aspiring members' military forces more nearly congruent or interoperable with NATO forces. With this document, NATO has arguably created its own version of the EU's acquis communautaire “against which the Alliance can assess the technical preparations and capacities of the nine MAP partners and judge their readiness for membership.”
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Ellen Laipson, Michael A. Ledeen, Michael J. White, John Gannon, Eugene J. Carroll, Richard P. Cincotta, Johanna Mendelson Forman, Michael Hanssler, Liliana Hisas, Leslie Johnston, Gavin Kitchingham, Gayl D. Ness, David Rejeski, Ervin J. Rokke, Judith Shapiro, Aleksei V. Yablokov, Arno Weinmann
  • Publication Date: 01-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Wilson Center
  • Abstract: In January 2001, the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), a center within the Central Intelligence Agency that provides the agency's director with mid- and long-term strategic thinking and direction, published Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts. This unclassified and public report, which expanded on the NIC's previous effort Global Trends 2010, takes a look at the world over the next 15 years from the perspective of the national security policymaker.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Environment, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Richard A. Matthew
  • Publication Date: 01-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Wilson Center
  • Abstract: Environmental and social factors are generating high levels of conflict and insecurity in Northern Pakistan. Several factors make this case an important subject for analysis and discussion: (a) the strategic location of the region; (b) the potential for far-reaching and even global consequences should conflict spill across the borders and into countries such as Afghanistan and India; and (c) the similarities between this case and many others in the world. The article concludes with policy suggestions for both domestic and foreign parties concerned about the situation.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Environment, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Afghanistan, India
  • Author: Marc J. Cohen, Ellen Messer, Thomas Marchione
  • Publication Date: 01-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Wilson Center
  • Abstract: Ensuring food security—especially in Africa—depends on breaking cycles of hunger and conflict. Whether one believes that (a) environmental scarcities (including food insecurity) can cause conflict, or (b) that conflict is primarily caused by political factors, it is indisputable that access to food is always disrupted by conflict. Much has been written about the linkages between environmental scarcities, hunger, and conflict. This article (a) highlights certain gaps in the information about the steps that lead from hunger to conflict, and then (b) suggests policies and actions to break these connections.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Environment, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Margaret E. Keck
  • Publication Date: 01-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Wilson Center
  • Abstract: More than a decade after images of flames devouring the rainforest focused international attention on the Brazilian Amazon, the fires continue to burn. This article traces the history of conservation efforts in the Brazilian Amazon and then argues that repeated failure to understand or accommodate the political factors at work in the Amazon undermines environmentalists' efforts to protect the rainforest.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Environment, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Brazil
  • Author: Thomaz Guedes da Costa
  • Publication Date: 01-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Wilson Center
  • Abstract: As Brazil implements its System for Vigilance of the Amazon (SIVAM), the country's leadership continues to tout the system as a major effort towards achieving its national security objectives—especially (a) preserving the countr y's sovereignty over its territories in that tropical forest region; (b) assisting in Amazon law enforcement, particularly in deterring illegal flights associated with contraband and narco-trafficking; and (c) providing environmental information aimed at promoting sustainable development and the preservation of natural habitats in the Amazon. But while official arguments promise SIVAM will contribute to all three objectives, the lack of: (a) transparency in the program's development and implementation; and (b) greater participation by non-official organizations in how SIVAM will gather, process, and disseminate information threatens the environmental and human security value of the system.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Environment, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Brazil
  • Author: Patrick Clawson
  • Publication Date: 12-2001
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
  • Abstract: Like that of its predecessor, the Bush administration's policy toward Iraq appears to focus on the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the hands of Saddam Husayn's regime. Some suggest that U.S. policy should emphasize the resumption of inspections, suspended since 1998. However, there are strong reasons to doubt that inspections would reduce the threat of Iraqi WMD.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries
  • Author: Michael Eisenstadt
  • Publication Date: 12-2001
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
  • Abstract: Psyops and propaganda activities that aim to diminish Saddam in the eyes of his supporters, exacerbate existing strains between his inner circle and the military, stir up popular discontent, and embolden opponents of the regime are a crucial component of any policy that seeks regime change in Baghdad. Such efforts could keep Saddam on the defensive and create an atmosphere of crisis and tension, forcing the regime to divert assets to deal with internal security, and leaving fewer resources available for clandestine technology procurement or trouble-making elsewhere. Such efforts could transform the psychological environment in the country, creating an atmosphere in which a coup or uprising might occur.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Arab Countries