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  • Author: Steven Philip Kramer, Irene Kyriakopoulos
  • Publication Date: 03-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: When political observers talk about European security, they invariably refer to the challenges Western Europe faces on its peripheries from a renationalized Russia, conflicts in the Balkans, and Islamic fundamentalism in North Africa. Rarely do they imagine that the greatest dangers to the new Europe may come from within, that the kind of stability Europe has enjoyed since World War II could be merely a passing chapter in history, not a transcendence of history. Without suggesting that there is necessarily a worst case ending, this study will argue that there is indeed a series of crises converging on post-Cold War Europe that threaten its stability and that need to be addressed by European policy makers and taken into account by Americans.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, War
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, North Africa
  • Author: Mark Roberts
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: In her book, States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China (1979), revolutionary authority and sociologist Theda Skocpol states: The repressive state organizations of the prerevolutionary regime have to be weakened before mass revolutionary action can succeed, or even emerge. Indeed, historically, mass rebellious action has not been able, in itself, to overcome state repression. Instead, military pressures from abroad … have been necessary to undermine repression.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Religion
  • Political Geography: Russia, China, Middle East, France
  • Author: M.E. Ahrari, James Beal
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The dismantlement of the Soviet Union also brought about the liberation of six Central Asian Muslim republics—Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan (figure 1). Although Azerbaijan is part of the Caucasus region, it is included in this study because: The independence of that country, like that of the Central Asian states, was brought about as a result of the dismantlement of the Soviet Union. Azerbaijan, like its Central Asian counterparts, is a Muslim state, and faces similar politico-economic problems. Azerbaijan's conflict with Armenia involving Nagorno-Karabkh reminds one of a number of conflicts in the Central Asian region. These include a seething ethnic conflict in Kazakhstan (involving the Khazaks and the Slavs), the ongoing civil war in Tajikistan "along ethnic, national, and religious lines (since the Russian forces are "also involved in this civil war), and the ethnic conflict in the Fargana valley that cuts across the borders of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Like the economies of its Central Asian neighbors, the Azeri economy was largely dependent on the economy of the former Soviet Union. Consequently, like its other neighbors, Azerbaijan is also busy establishing economic self-sufficiency, along with strengthening its religious political, linguistic, and ethnic identities.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Religion
  • Political Geography: Central Asia, Middle East, Soviet Union
  • Author: John Leslie, Paul M. Lubeck, Georgi Derlugian, Elaine Thomas, Maria Todorova, Philip G. Roeder, Andrew Bell-Flailkoff, Nirvikar Singh, Daniel Chirot, Beverly Crawford, Ronnie Lipschutz
  • Publication Date: 03-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: This paper looks at the relationship between the rise of Islamic radicalism and changes in the global political and economic order. The author suggests that the major independent variable explaining whether Islamic radicalism can take power in a given state is the degree to which the state is able to articulate and then successfully pursue a national agenda. The success of such an agenda is in turn dependent upon the position of the state in the context of the global order. Thus, the author makes the claim that the creation of an integrated, global market exacerbates rather than suppresses Islamic radicalism because it interferes with the ability of any given state to pursue its own agenda. Economic liberalization weakens state authority, exposes its citizens to global competition and creates social and economic dislocation, providing an opportunity for Islamic radicals to position themselves as an alternative to further global integration.
  • Topic: Security, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Nationalism, Sovereignty
  • Author: Thomas Chronopoulos
  • Publication Date: 12-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Studies of Social Change
  • Abstract: In the period between 1758 and 1834 repertoires of contention in Britain changed from parochial, particular, and bifurcated to cosmopolitan, modular, and autonomous. In other words, eighteenth century actions "that included a good deal of ceremonial, street theater, deployment of strong visual symbols, and destruction of symbolically charged objects" through the course of time lost their relative predominance and instead "demonstrations, strikes, rallies, public meetings, and similar forms of public interaction came to prevail during the nineteenth century." These new routines for the eighteenth century contentious events are the ones that ordinary people in the United States and Western Europe still to this date principally employ to make claims. This conclusion merges from a systematic study of more than 8,000 contentious gatherings, in Southern England (1758-1820) and Great Britain as a whole (1828-1834).
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, England
  • Author: Yagil Levy
  • Publication Date: 12-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Studies of Social Change
  • Abstract: Observation of state-military relations in Israel reveals an apparent paradox: Within a period of about seventy years, the more the militarization of Israeli society and politics gradually increased, the more politicians were successful in institutionalizing effective control over the Israel Defence Forces (IDF, and the pre-state organizations). Militarization passed through three main stages: (1) accepting the use of force as a legitimate political instrument during the pre-state period (1920-1948), subsequent to confrontation between pacifism and activism; (2) giving this instrument priority over political-diplomatic means in the state's first years up to the point in which (3) military discursive patterns gradually dominated political discourse after the 1967 War. At the same time, political control over the IDF was tightened, going from the inculcation of the principle of the armed forces' subordination to the political level during the pre-state period to the construction of arrangements working to restrain the military leverage for autonomous action.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Stephen M. Saideman
  • Publication Date: 11-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California
  • Abstract: Is secession contagious? If so, can it be contained or quarantined to limit its spread? These two questions must be addressed to understand the challenges posed by ethnic divisions within and between states today. The end of ideological competition between the United States and the Soviet Union has not ushered in an era of global peace, but instead a period characterized by ethnic conflicts within many states. The coincidence of the disintegrations of the Soviet, Yugoslav, and Czechoslovak federations suggests that secession does spread with potentially nasty consequences.
  • Topic: Security, Ethnic Conflict, Nationalism, Politics, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: United States, Eastern Europe
  • Publication Date: 02-1994
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: Not even one child's death from firearms is acceptable or inevitable. What will we do about it? We gathered at The Carter Center, 26 people from various fields and disciplines, all concerned with protecting and lengthening the lives of children, to seek a path forward amid the carnage of our children caused by firearms. What could be done to stem the hemorrhage in the streets? Could we do enough to make a difference? Could we do anything at all? Author Norman Cousins has said that the greatest t the United States has given the world is to demonstrate that it is possible to plan a rational future. It is easy to lose hope when faced with a situation as horrible as thousands of children dying from firearms. Yet even here, we affirm that it is possible to plan a rational future. Our gathering was framed around a modest focus on: 1. Children, not all people; 2. Firearms, not all violence; 3. Initiatives that could make an urgent and significant impact in the next five to 10 years; 4. Things we could work on immediately.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Civil Society, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 12-1994
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Defense Information
  • Abstract: The end of the Cold War has had a major impact on global trade in conventional armaments, just as it has on most facets of national security and defense. The nature of global demand for arms has shifted from the context of rivalry between superpowers and their associated client states to providing for national defense within the context of regional security needs. While these changes have led to a decline in total global demand for arms, countries continue to seek to acquire substantial amounts of increasingly sophisticated weapons. Ironically, in many respects, the post-Cold War world is more unstable than the Cold War era, and is characterized by increased violence, by increased proliferation of military technology, and by the potential for these trends to continue. In this context, while the nature of the political-military issues that the U.S. and friendly nations now confront has changed, arms exports will continue to be a means of advancing U.S. national security and foreign policy objectives.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Keith Krause, Ken Epps, Bill Weston, David Mutimer
  • Publication Date: 01-1994
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Defense Information
  • Abstract: The global proliferation of conventional weapons has earned a prominent place in the post-Cold War foreign policy agenda. The human and material toll of the relatively unconstrained flow of conventional weapons is large: the vast majority of the 20 million war-related deaths since 1945 have been in conflicts fought exclusively with conventional weapons, and the thirty-nine major ongoing conflicts in 1994 have been fueled by arms, especially light weapons, that have been amassed in the world's arsenals. Conventional proliferation is perhaps the last remaining important issue on the arms control and non-proliferation agenda that has not been comprehensively addressed.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Canada