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1621. Obama's Foreign Policy: Is this change we can believe in?

Author:
Camille Grand, Ivan Safranchuk, David Calleo, and Shen Dingli
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
For several months following the election of November, 2008, most Americans took great pleasure in their charismatic new president. A series of soaring speeches, frank interviews and pragmatic initiatives made real changes for the better seem possible. Of course other presidents have begun with high hopes, only to be ensnared in multiple dilemmas inherited from their predecessors. By the summer of 2009, Obama's own prospects begin to seem more problematic. Disagreements have surfaced between the Presidency and the Congress and rumours proliferate about splits within the ad ministration's own ranks. Fear grows that the president – attempting simultaneously to overcome a severe financial crisis, address long- neglected needs of the domestic economy and win two intractable wars – has overreached himself.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States

1622. Good, But How Good? Monitoring and Evaluation of Media Assistance Projects

Author:
Andy Mosher
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
During the early '90s, international media assistance was transformed from a small field to a multimillion-dollar global endeavor. While how to gauge the impact of this wave of assistance was always a concern, the so-called media missionaries' strong sense of purpose and their limited understanding of social science techniques often led them to give short shrift to monitoring and evaluating their media development programs. Since then, things have changed. Interviews with more than a dozen donors, media assistance implementers, and professional evaluators indicate that the importance of monitoring and evaluation has become more widely appreciated. Monitoring—the tracking of programs and activities as they proceed, and the marshaling of the resulting data—has become more rigorous over time. And evaluation—the assessment of a program's impact—has become an integral part of virtually every assistance program, according to those who design and implement them.
Topic:
Economics, International Affairs, Mass Media, and Foreign Aid

1623. Reinforcing Treasury's Strategic Roles in International Affairs and National Security

Author:
Jeremiah S. Pam
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
At this time of the U.S. Treasury's Department's extraordinary prominence in domestic affairs, it is possible to overlook the critical functions that the Treasury performs in U.S. international policy. This would be a significant oversight at any time, as Treasury has long made more international contributions, of greater importance to U.S. policy, than has often been widely understood. It is even more of an oversight in the post-9/11 international environment, which has presented new challenges that have sorely tested many of the United States' more well-known foreign policy and national security institutions.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Affairs, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

1624. Digital Media in Conflict-Prone Societies

Author:
Ivan Sigal
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
The complex relationship between media and conflict is longstanding. Traditional mass media have been used to amplify and extend viewpoints and ideologies, to persuade audiences at home, and to influence opposing sides in conflict. However, both media and conflict have changed markedly in recent years. Many 21st-century wars are not only about holding territory, but about gaining public support and achieving legal status in the international arena. Governments seek to hold onto power through persuasion as much as through force. Media are increasingly essential elements of conflict, rather than just functional tools for those fighting. At the same time, newer media technologies have increased communication and information dissemination in the context of conflict. In particular, the growth of citizen media has changed the information space around conflict, providing more people with the tools to record and share their experiences with the rest of the world.
Topic:
Peace Studies, Science and Technology, War, International Affairs, and Mass Media

1625. On the measure of power and the power of measure in International Relations

Author:
Stefano Guzzini
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Power is a central concept in theories of International Relations. Its explanatory role shows in such a key concept as the 'balance of power' which predicts that allied groups of states will tend to balance their respective powers. But it also plays an important role for understanding the outcome of conflicts, since here 'power' has often been likened to a 'cause': getting someone else to do what he/she would not have otherwise done. Knowing power distributions therefore is said to explain state behaviour and the outcome of their interaction. Such power analysis must assume the measurability of power. Unfortunately, as this Working Paper argues, such measure is of no avail, not because we have not yet thought enough about it, but because it is not possible. There are two main reasons. First, because of the missing fungibility of power resources, no standard of measure can be established. And secondly, for understanding power phenomena and the very value of such resources in the first place, we need to analyse legitimacy, which is, however, not reducible to any objective measure. Still, since power as a measurable fact appears crucial in the language and bargaining of international politics, measures of power are agreed to and constructed as a social fact: diplomats must agree first on what counts before they can start counting. The second part of the paper therefore moves the analysis of power away from the illusion of an objective measure to the political battle over defining the criteria of power, which in turn has political effects. In other words, besides understanding what power means, one has also to assess what its understanding, if shared, does. Being tied to the idea of responsibility in our political discourse ('ought implies can'), the act attributing power to actors asks them to justify their action or non-action: it 'empowers' certain actions. The paper illustrates such interactive effects by discussing the present debate about US power, showing the way we conceive power, if it becomes shared, implies and legitimates particular foreign policy action.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States

1626. Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates

Author:
Arvind Subramanian, Simon Johnson, William Larson, and Chris Papageorgiou
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper sheds light on two problems in the Penn World Table (PWT) GDP estimates. First, we show that these estimates vary substantially across different versions of the PWT despite being derived from very similar underlying data and using almost identical methodologies; that this variability is systematic; and that it is intrinsic to the methodology deployed by the PWT to estimate growth rates. Moreover, this variability matters for the cross-country growth literature. While growth studies that use low-frequency data remain robust to data revisions, studies that use annual data are less robust. Second, the PWT methodology leads to GDP estimates that are not valued at purchasing power parity (PPP) prices. This is surprising because the raison d'être of the PWT is to adjust national estimates of GDP by valuing output at common international (PPP) prices so that the resulting PPP-adjusted estimates of GDP are comparable across countries. We propose an approach to address these two problems of variability and valuation.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and International Affairs

1627. Beyond Optimism and Pessimism: The Differential Effects of Nuclear Proliferation

Author:
Matthew Kroenig
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
What is the effect of the spread of nuclear weapons on international politics? The scholarly debate pits proliferation optimists, who claim that “more may be better,” against proliferation pessimists, who argue that “more will be worse.” These scholars focus on the aggregate effects of nuclear proliferation, but never explicitly consider the differential effects of the spread of nuclear weapons. In other words, they do not examine whether nuclear proliferation may threaten some states more than others. I propose a theory of nuclear proliferation that examines the differential effects of nuclear proliferation. I argue that the threat nuclear proliferation poses to a particular state depends on that state's ability to project military power. The spread of nuclear weapons is worse for states that have the ability to project conventional military power over a potential nuclear weapon state primarily because nuclear proliferation constrains their conventional military freedom of action. On the other hand, nuclear proliferation is less threatening to, and can sometimes even improve the strategic environment of, states that lack the ability to project power over a potential nuclear weapon state, because the spread of nuclear weapons disproportionately constrains other, more powerful states. This article contributes to our understanding of the consequences of nuclear proliferation and contains important implications for nuclear nonproliferation policy.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and International Affairs

1628. International Journal of KOREAN STUDIES Volume XIII, Number 2 Fall/Winter 2009

Author:
Hugo Wheegook Kim
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The Korean peninsula continues to be a geostrategic and economic nexus for Northeast Asia. As such, relations involve economic, social, historical, and larger regional issues, as well as the nuclear issue. While the specifics are yet to emerge, this article surveys the Obama administration's strategic approach to the region and the peninsula, concluding that it is working with a broad tradition of U.S. approaches to the region: engage China, uphold traditional alliances, and contain the North Korean threat. The economic crisis has affected the specifics of this grand strategy, but not the overall U.S. approach to East Asia.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States, China, East Asia, North Korea, and Northeast Asia

1629. Problems to partnership: a plan for Australia-India strategic ties

Author:
Rory Medcalf
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Strategic ties between Australia and India keep falling short of expectations, despite strong growth in trade. Controversy over the welfare of Indian students has added to differences over uranium exports to cloud what should be promising links between two countries with many common concerns. The relationship will weather recent turbulence. But without major diplomatic initiatives soon, the prospects for a truly strategic partnership between these Indian Ocean democracies will be set back for years.
Topic:
Education, International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
India, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

1630. Piracy off the Coasts of Somalia

Author:
Bjoern Moeller
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The piracy problem off the coasts of Somalia veritably exploded in 2008, due to a mixture of push and pull factors. The general misery in the country pushed Somalis into piracy, and the high earnings from successful pirate attacks pulled businessmen into the pirate business. The international community has sent several patrols to the area, but the decisive factor is what happens on the ground in Somalia.
Topic:
Crime, International Law, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia