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2851. How Shareholder Reforms Can Pay Foreign Policy Dividends

Author:
James J. Shinn and Peter Gourevitch
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Corporate governance—the rules that govern the relationship between managers and shareholders—belongs on the foreign policy agenda of American decision-makers. The vigorous debates underway about corporate governance, both at home and abroad, present an opportunity for the United States to advance its foreign policy goals of enhancing free trade and financial stability.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

2852. Monetary Policy Rules and the International Monetary Transmission

Author:
Leonor Coutinho
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper analyses alternative monetary policy rules for the ECB, using a two "country" model of the euro area and the US, that assumes monopolistic competition, sticky prices and optimizing agents. The alternative rules analyzed for the ECB are ranked by their ability to stabilize consumption, output, and inflation and maximize consumers' welfare. The analysis contributes toward understanding the trade-offs faced by policymakers in open economies and provides some support for the current design of the ECB's operational framework. The results suggest that stabilizing money-growth, in addition to inflation, gives an additional degree of freedom to stabilize output. Although price stability is likely to remain the primary objective of the ECB, monetary policy must "without prejudice of price stability (...) support the general economic policies in the Community..." (Article 2). Hence monitoring money, under certain assumptions about the shocks hitting the economy, may deliver a better outcome in terms of output stabilization which should allow the ECB to fulfill its secondary but nonetheless important commitment.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

2853. Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries

Author:
Roberto Perotti
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on GDP, prices and interest rates in 5 OECD countries, using a structural Vector Autoregression approach. Its main results can be summarized as follows:1 ) The estimated effects of fiscal policy on GDP tend to be small: positive government spending multipliers larger than 1 tend to be the exception; 2) The effects of fiscal policy on GDP and its components have become substantially weaker over time; 3) Under plausible values of the price elasticity, government spending has positive effects on the price level, although usually small; 4) Government spending shocks have significant effects on the nominal and real short interest rate, but of varying signs; 5) In the post-1980 period, net tax shocks have positive short run effects on the nominal interest rate, and typically negative or zero effects on prices; 6) The US is an outlier in many dimensions; responses to fiscal shocks estimated on US data are often not representative of the average OECD country included in this sample.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2854. Making EU Trade Agreements Work: The Role of Rules of Origin

Author:
Paul Brenton and Miriam Manchin
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
A key element of the EU's free trade and preferential trade agreements is the extent to which they deliver improved market access and so contribute to the EUs foreign policy objectives towards developing countries and neighbouring countries in Europe, including the countries of the Balkans. Previous preferential trade schemes have been ineffective in delivering improved access to the EU market. The main reason for this is probably the very restrictive rules of origin that the EU imposes, coupled with the costs of proving consistency with these rules. If the EU wants the 'Everything but Arms' agreement and free trade agreements with countries in the Balkans to generate substantial improvements in access to the EU market for products from these countries then it will have to reconsider the current rules of origin and implement less restrictive rules backed upon by a careful safeguards policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

2855. The Development of European Citizenship and its Relevance to the Integration of Refugees

Author:
Joanna Apap
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Achieving an integrated Europe involves political and social unity as much as economic integration. Thus, the issue of European citizenship is central to the debate about European integration. Union citizenship needs to be distinguished from national citizen ship. Every citizen of the Union enjoys a first circle of nationality rights within a member state and a second circle of new rights enjoyed in any member state of the EU. The presence of immigrants in Europe also raises wider questions for government policy in the field of citizenship. There are various issues that arise in the European context with respect to the boundaries of citizenship. One of the main questions in this regard is the extent to which the division between European Union citizens and third country nationals will continue to prevail.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

2856. Enhancing the Effectiveness of the EU's Foreign and Defence Policies

Author:
Anand Menon
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The following report discusses ways of enhancing the EU's effectiveness and impact as an international actor in the light of debates currently taking place within the Convention. Its central recommendations can be briefly summarised: Clarify and discard the more extreme variants of arguments pressing for a significant EU military capability. . Create a Commissioner for External Affairs to whom other Commissioners responsible for discreet aspects of this portfolio would report. . Recreate the Political Committee, composed of Political Directors. Create a Council of Defence Ministers. Reinforce the role of the High Representative in several ways: increase the financial resources at his/her disposal; allow him/her to chair the COPS. Create an EU Security Council comprising the HR, the Secretary General of t the Council, the Commissioner for External Relations, the Presidency (in order to ensure coherence with EU internal action), the chief of the EU military staff and senior representatives from the troika.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2857. The Kyoto Protocol and the WTO: Institutional Evolution and Adaptation

Author:
Thomas L. Brewer
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Questions about the interface between the multilateral climate regime embodied in the Kyoto Protocol and the multilateral trade regime embodied in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have become especially timely since the fall of 2001. At that time, ministerial-level meetings in Marrakech and Doha agreed to advance the agendas, respectively, for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol and for negotiations on further agreements at the WTO. There have been concerns that each of these multilateral arrangements could constrain the effectiveness of the other, and these concerns will become more salient with the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol. There are questions about whether and how the rights and obligations of the members of the WTO and the parties to the Protocol may conflict. Of particular concern is members of the WTO and the parties to the Protocol may conflict. Of particular concern is whether provisions in the Protocol, as well as government policies and business activities undertaken in keeping with those provisions, may conflict with the WTO non-discrimination principles of national treatment and most-favoured nation treatment.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2858. The Wider Europe as the European Union's friendly Monroe Doctrine

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The 'Wider Europe' may, and certainly should, become one of the big next issues on the policy agenda of the European Union following the enlargement decisions to be taken in Copenhagen in December. Indeed the practical concerns raised by the forthcoming enlargement for the EU's periphery to the North, East and South are already crowding in. A new vocabulary is sprouting up in Brussels, call it as you wish: 'Wider Europe', or 'Proximity Policy', or 'Neighbourhood Policy'. What is certain is that the Wider Europe will not go away.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2859. Changing Conceptions of Security and their Implications for EU Justice and Home Affairs Cooperation

Author:
Joanna Apap and Malcolm Anderson
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
From the initiation of the debate about Europol in the late 1980s, some law enforcement agencies and political thinkers developed a concept of security that links together broad categories of activities: terrorism, drug trafficking, organised crime, transborder crime, illegal immigration, asylum seekers, and minority ethnic groups. This conception represents a variety of very different problems as elements of one general security threat. In addition, there has been a blurring of the distinction between internal and external security, as the threat of a conventional military attack on Western Europe has declined. This idea has been sharply criticised, by those such as Didier Bigo, (who has labelled this concept a security continuum,)1 for linking very different activities, profiling of groups and criminalising illegal immigrants. It is also objectionable on grounds that it categorises difficult problems as security threats too quickly and too emphatically. A crucial element in the merging of internal and external security has been the re-classification of undocumented immigrants and asylum seekers as problems of security. But the linkage between security fields lies at the core of the redefinition of the West European security following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Integration of the tasks and functions of police services, immigration services, customs and intelligence services, is sustained by the gradual re-shaping of the security continuum under the pressure of events, such as, most dramatically, the terrorist attacks of September 2001.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2860. Conflict Resolution for Moldova and Transdniestria through Federalisation?

Author:
Michael Emerson and Bruno Coppieters
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
At a meeting in Kiev on 1-3 July 2002, the mediators for the Moldovan- Transdniestria conflict proposed, at the initiative of the OSCE, a draft agreement on the constitutional system that would regulate the distribution of competencies between Chisinau and Tiraspol. This draft agreement defines the Republic of Moldova as a “federal state”. The implementation of the agreement would be monitored and ultimately guaranteed by the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the OSCE.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2861. The World Trading System: In Dire Need of Reform

Author:
Sylvia Ostry
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Over the decade of the 1990s, the deepening integration of the global economy accelerated as trade, financial flows, and foreign direct investment were liberalised. This deepening integration is, in part, a "natural" phenomenon, fed and now led by technological changes in information, communication and transport and is driving in the direction of a single global market. But, of course, governments have played an important role and international economic policy has facilitated - or perhaps even catalysed - the momentum. And the "natural" and "policy" forces are interrelated in a complex fashion that reflects the nature of the policy process . This process differs in different policy domains - for example trade versus financial or development policy. Yet it's important to underline that trade policy has indeed played a major catalytic role in fostering global integration.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2862. Georgia's Pankisi Gorge: Russian, US and European Connections

Author:
Jaba Devdariani and Blanka Hancilova
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Georgian government fails to exercise effective control over parts of its territory. In the last decade, Georgian statehood has been threatened by a civil war and secessionist conflicts. Its government has failed to reform its armed forces and has lost control over the Pankisi Gorge, a sparsely populated patch of the Caucasus Mountains on the border to Chechnya. Some hundreds Chechen fighters including several dozen Islamic extremists connected to the al-Qaeda network are believed to be hiding in that area. After the attacks on the United States on 11 September, the risks posed by failing states in the propagation of international terrorist networks are being taken more seriously into consideration. 2 The US decision to send up to 200 special operation forces to Georgia in March 2002, in order to train Georgian forces to regain control over the Pankisi Gorge, proceeds from this logic.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2863. Budgetary Implications of Enlargement: Agriculture

Author:
Johan F.M. Swinnen
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) accounts for 45% of the total EU budget. Will its extension to Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) break the EU budget? The 10 CEECs currently negotiating for membership would increase the number of farmers by 120% and would increase the area under cultivation by 42%. It is thus widely expected that enlargement will dramatically increase the cost of the CAP.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2864. Supervising the European Financial System

Author:
Karel Lannoo
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The EU's financial sector has been undergoing an almost continuous wave of de- or reregulation since the late 1980s. The Single Market programme with minimal harmonisation and home country control was implemented in successive periods for banking, insurance and the securities markets. By the end of the 1990s, however, under the impact of EMU, it was clear that this was not sufficient, and a Financial Services Action Programme set a schedule for the adoption of 42 directives to create a truly integrated financial market by 2005. Moreover, a Committee of Wise Men under the chairmanship of Alexandre Lamfalussy made proposals to ease the adaptation of EU financial regulations to market developments.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2865. Europe as a Global Economic Actor

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The three years since the start of EMU have been characterised by an extraordinary degree of volatility in global financial and other markets (oil, etc.). Most official comments have so far focused on the fact that Europe has remained an 'island of stability'. But this self congratulatory tone cannot mask the fact that EU institutions have generally not been in the forefront of the efforts to stabilise the global economy. This is partly understandable as most of the volatility originated outside the EU. But just 'putting one's own house in order' does not seem to be sufficient when global economic (or political) stability is at stake, as recent events amply demonstrate.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2866. The European Union: Teleology and some Challenges of the Eastern Enlargement

Author:
Gabriela Martin Thornton
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, quickly followed by German reunification, scholars of the European Union have emphasised that one of the most salient consequences of these events would be the enlargement of the European Union. Many have claimed that enlargement would mean galvanising the German power within the European Union, by placing Germany at the geographical heart of Europe. Enlargement was perceived either as undermining the Franco-German relationship, or even more, as replacing it by increased German connections with Eastern European countries (Braun, 1996, p. 158). The IGC in Nice struggled to reform the EU institutions in order to accommodate future members. The Treaty of Nice has generated fear within certain Western circles. Some political analysts already announced the end of Jean Monnet's “Europe”, the triumph of Germany, and with the future inclusion of Central and East European countries (CEECs), the birth of a “Europe” less “European”. Since Nice, a sea of metaphors has sparkled over the Western European newspapers with regard to “the return to Europe” of the CEECs. Nonetheless, many scholars seem to agree with Stanley Hoffman who points out that the expansion toward the east is seen as necessary in order “to provide stability in the more troublesome part of the continent and in order to protect fledgling democracy there.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Berlin

2867. The Application of Justice and Home Affairs and the position of Minorities: The case of Hungary

Author:
Judit Tóth
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
When one considers the substance of European Union (EU) official documents in a simplified way, national and ethnical minorities may appear in three contexts. The first belongs to external relations (common foreign and security policy), which cover minorities as a matter of human rights in third countries. These documents call upon the (third) countries concerned to respect human rights and international and European standards on minorities' rights that are also endorsed by the EU. In this regard, the legislation being developed in view of a common European migration policy contains provisions about the respect of minority rights in order to prevent further migration waves.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

2868. The Schengen Challenge and its Balkan Dimensions

Author:
Péter Kovács
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The subject of this paper is undoubtedly of paramount importance for a number of Central and East European countries. The image of a “Schengen Fortress” in statu nascendi is disappointing even for those who are enthusiastic about the accession of their countries to a unified Europe. There is a widespread fear – rational or not – that cross-border human contacts and travel possibilities from East to West will become more difficult than they were in the years following the fall of the Berlin Wall. The same feeling can be detected even in the Balkans, where certain countries also show symptoms of the “Schengen Fortress”.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

2869. Russia's engagement with Justice and Home Affairs: A Question of Mutual Trust

Author:
Olga Potemkina
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Does Russia need international cooperation? This question may seem rhetorical, to which one would give a positive response, but the findings of a public opinion survey conducted by the independent Russian research organisation ROMIR clearly suggest otherwise. In April 2001, a total of 1,500 Russians were polled in 160 locations in 94 villages, towns and cities, in 40 regions, territories and republics of the Russian Federation. The questions asked concerned several key aspects of EU-Russian relations and the need for increased cooperation with international organisations.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

2870. Russia and the EU: The Kaliningrad Dilemma

Author:
Yuri Borko
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Strictly speaking, there are two groups of problems related to this topic. Firstly, there are some particular issues arising from the enlargement process; namely the movement of goods and people between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia, including visa regime, energy supply of the region, trans-border cooperation and fisheries. To solve these problems or not to solve them is like Hamlet's dilemma “to be or not to be”. These problems have to be solved by the Union and Russia, with the participation, at least jointly, of Poland and Lithuania.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Poland, and Lithuania

2871. Border Countries in an Enlarging Union: Some Reflections based on the Italian Experience

Author:
Ferruccio Pastore
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In order to understand the Italian perspective – or rather the Italian perspectives – on the shift eastward of EU external borders, it is useful, if not necessary, to anticipate briefly a few schematic concepts about the meaning of borders in Italian history. This will enable us to achieve a better understanding of current Italian attitudes in the European debate on border management issues in the framework of the enlargement process. But a rapid overview on the recent transformation of the nature and function of borders in the Italian case will also allow us to draw some tentative lessons for the ongoing enlargement process in the field of Justice and Home Affairs.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

2872. Basel II: The Remaining Issues

Author:
Moritz Meier-Ewert
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In January 2001, the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision (BCBS) presented its latest proposals for a revised Capital Adequacy Accord. The aim of this revision is to address some of the perceived shortcomings of the 1988 Accord, which is currently being applied. These new proposals include a number of important improvements, but unfortunately there is a serious risk that in some areas they are overshooting their target. As a result they could have adverse consequences not only for the structure of the banking industry, but also for developing countries and for systemic stability. Indeed, if implemented in its current form, the Accord could lead to a serious round of consolidation in the banking sector resulting in the domination of the market by a handful of internationally active banks, widen the amplitudes of business cycles as well as increase the frequency of financial crisis through enhanced procyclicality, and effectively cut off a number of developing country borrowers from bank-finance.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2873. The Convention on the Future of the EU

Author:
Eric Philippart
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In December 2000, the Heads of State or Government reckoned that once the institutional changes proposed in the Treaty of Nice were ratified, the Union would be ready for the accession of new member states. Acknowledging that the post-Nice design was certainly not optimal, they also agreed in a Declaration annexed to the Treaty to convene an Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) in 2004. It stipulated that Treaty changes would only be decided after two intermediary phases aimed at deepening and widening the debate on the future of the European Union: an 'open reflection' phase encouraging wide-ranging exchanges of views in multiple national and European fora, to be followed by a phase of 'structured reflection' scheduled for 2002-3. The format of the second phase was to be defined during the European Council bringing the Belgian Presidency to a close. On 15 December 2001, the Laeken 'Declaration on the Future of the European Union' was indeed adopted. No less than 56 substantive questions were proposed as a starting point for the debate to be conducted by an ad hoc structure made of a Convention flanked by a Forum. The Declaration not only defined the mandate and the institutional contours of the new structure, it also provided a number of indications on how it should proceed in terms of deliberation, drafting and decision-making.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2874. Infringement of the European Convention on Human Rights by Belgium

Author:
Joanna Apap
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The judgment in the case of Conka v. Belgium of 5 February 2002 by the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg whereby Belgium was founded guilty of infringing the European Convention on Human Rights, has much wider implications than one might think on a first reading.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe and Belgium

2875. The Assignment of Tasks in an Evolving European Union

Author:
Guido Tabellini
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
How should tasks be divided between the EU and its member states? And what institutional reforms are needed to insure that these tasks (but only these tasks) are efficiently performed by the EU? This is the main problem to be addressed at the upcoming European Convention. This paper argues that EU tasks in the first pillar should not be expanded further, though some changes in the direction of both more and less intervention are desirable. The single market remains to be better enforced, and this might require further centralization of tasks. On the other hand, EU meddling with redistribution should be scaled back; this would imply reforming and reducing EU intervention in agricultural policy, structural funds and the social charter. In other words, EU intervention in the first pillar should mainly aim at making sure that the single market works as effectively as possible, and at fostering competition between EU member states. Redistribution should remain a national prerogative. EU tasks should instead be expanded outside of the first pillar, namely in foreign and defense policies, in internal security and immigration. The paper ends with a discussion of what institutional reforms might be needed to accompany this allocation of tasks and increase accountability of EU decisions. Appropriate reforms should keep in mind the distinction between "bureaucratic accountability" (i.e. the control of appointed bureaucrats with a narrowly defined mission) and "democratic accountability" (i.e., the control of elected politicians with an open mandate). The former type of accountability is the most relevant in Europe today, given the lack of a true and complete European polity, and this has relevant implications for task allocation and institutional reforms.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2876. Finding the Balance: The Scales of Justice in Kosovo

Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
An independent, effective, and transparent justice system will be the cornerstone of a stable and democratic society in Kosovo. Ensuring that such a system is developed in a sustainable manner must be one of the top priorities of the United Nations Interim Administrative Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and the Provisional Institutions of Self- Government (PISG). In this report, ICG argues that although progress has been made, serious obstacles and challenges remain.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

2877. A Half-Hearted Welcome: Refugee Return to Croatia

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Seven years after the end of the war, the issue of refugee return continues to be contentious for Croatia. The government that came to power following parliamentary and presidential elections in January and February 2000 inherited an unsatisfactory legacy of discriminatory laws and practices from its predecessor, to the detriment in particular of ethnic Serb displaced persons and refugees. It found that once the universal international relief that greeted its victory over the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) had worn off, international pressure to remove obstacles to refugee return and reintegration had not ended.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Croatia

2878. The Meanings of Palestinian Reform

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since U.S. President George W. Bush's 24 June 2002 statement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Palestinian reform has emerged as a key ingredient in Middle East diplomacy. In his statement, the president publicly identified “a new and different Palestinian leadership” and “entirely new political and economic institutions” as preconditions for the establishment of a Palestinian state. In early July, the Quartet of Middle East mediators (the European Union, Russian Federation, United Nations, and United States) established an International Task Force for Palestinian Reform “to develop and implement a comprehensive reform action plan” for the Palestinian Authority (PA). The September 2002 statement by the Quartet underscored reform of Palestinian political, civil, and security institutions as an integral component of peacemaking. The three phase-implementation roadmap, a U.S. draft of which was presented to Israel and the Palestinians by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State William Burns in October, provided details on this reform component.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and United Nations

2879. Iraq Backgrounder: What Lies Beneath

Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This background report reviews the mechanics of Saddam Hussein's rule, looks at the political dynamics that govern relations between religious and ethnic entities, and describes the various opposition groups and their potential role. It does not seek to predict the course of events in Iraq or to argue for any particular course of action. This is the first in a series of reports and briefing papers that ICG intends to issue on the challenges posed by Iraq, including the state of the country more than a decade after the Gulf War; regional attitudes toward a possible U.S. military offensive; the status of Iraqi Kurdistan; and Iran's posture toward a U.S.-led war and Iraq after Saddam Hussein.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan

2880. Indonesia: Resources and Conflict in Papua

Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The struggle over land and natural resource rights is a key aspect of the conflict in Papua, formerly known as Irian Jaya, that pits the Indonesian state against an independence movement supported by most of the indigenous population. It is thought to have cost many thousands of lives since the 1960s, mostly Papuan civilians killed by the security forces. Among the most recent victims were three employees of the giant mining company, PT Freeport Indonesia, killed in a well-planned attack on 31 August 2002.
Topic:
Environment, Government, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Papua

2881. Bosnia's Alliance for (Smallish) Change

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Put together under the tutelage of representatives of the international community in the aftermath of the November 2000 general elections, the ten-party coalition known as the Democratic Alliance for Change has governed the larger of Bosnia Herzegovina's two entities and led the state-level Council of Ministers since early 2001. Intended by its sponsors and members to sideline the three nationalist parties that had fought the 1992-95 war and ruled their respective pieces of BiH thereafter, the Alliance was also expected to undertake thoroughgoing reforms and to provide proof that implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords might yet produce a viable state.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Eastern Europe

2882. Macedonia's Public Secret: How Corruption Drags The Country Down

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Corruption in Macedonia, especially at high levels of government, is endemic. It has evolved from passive exploitation to active coercion and acquired the capacity not only to retard economic progress but also to feed organised crime and, in turn, political and communal instability. In effect, the state has come to function in important respects as a “racket”, while the racketeers thrive in a culture of impunity.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Macedonia

2883. Kyrgyzstan's Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
ICG's first report on Kyrgyzstan, published in August 2001, highlighted the potential for crisis facing the country. International attention was then rarely focused on Central Asia but since September 2001 the region has suddenly registered on policy-makers' agendas. Nearly 2,000 U.S. and Coalition troops are now located at Manas Airport near Bishkek, as part of the forces active in Afghanistan, and Kyrgyzstan is playing a key strategic role in the region. Stability in this country is now of fundamental concern to the international community but, since early 2002, it has declined sharply.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, and Kyrgyzstan

2884. Fighting to Control Yugoslavia's Military

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica's 24 June 2002 sacking of Yugoslav Army (VJ) Chief of the General Staff Nebojsa Pavkovic was necessary, welcome, and long overdue. The EU, U.S., and NATO acclaimed the move as an effort to assert civilian control over the military, and Kostunica indeed deserves credit for removing a significant obstacle to the country's reintegration with Europe. Nonetheless, the action was probably more the result of the ongoing power struggle between Kostunica and Serbian Premier Zoran Djindjic than a genuine effort to bring the military under civilian control or dismantle the extra-constitutional parallel command structures that the post-Milosevic leadership of the country has created within the VJ.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, United Nations, and Serbia

2885. The Afghan Transitional Administration: Prospects and Perils

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Emergency Loya Jirga, or grand national assembly, held from 10 to 21 June 2002 in Kabul was a small but critical step in Afghanistan's political development. It was an opportunity to accord national legitimacy to the peace process begun at Bonn in November 2001 but it produced mixed results. From a narrow perspective, it was a success: representatives from across Afghanistan came together to elect, or rather anoint, a head of state, and the major armed factions kept their hats in the political ring rather than resort to violence. Given the last three decades of war and turmoil, this is significant.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

2886. The Loya Jirga: One Small Step Forward?

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The immensity of the task of rebuilding Afghanistan into something resembling a coherent state cannot be over-estimated. Nearly three decades of political instability – including many years of savage warfare, the wholesale destruction of political and physical infrastructure and the inflammation of ethnic divisions – are layered on top of a nation that was among the poorest and weakest governed even in its "golden age" before King Zahir Shah was deposed in 1973. Afghanistan's transition back to a minimum level of political and economic stability will require many small but crucial steps to keep it on course.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

2887. Implementing Equality: The "Constituent Peoples" Decision in Bosnia Herzegovina

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In July 2000, the Constitutional Court of Bosnia Herzegovina made an historic ruling requiring the two entities, the Federation of BiH and Republika Srpska (RS), to amend their constitutions to ensure the full equality of the country's three “constituent peoples” throughout its territory.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

2888. A Kosovo Roadmap (II): Internal Benchmarks

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since Kosovo became an international protectorate under United Nations administration in June 1999, much has been done to stabilise the province and set up a functioning administration. Yet nothing has been done to address the central question that lay at the heart of the conflict in Kosovo, and which remains the issue of overriding importance for the province's inhabitants: the issue of final status.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

2889. A Kosovo Roadmap (I): Addressing Final Status

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since Kosovo became an international protectorate under United Nations administration in June 1999, much has been done to stabilise the province and set up a functioning administration. Yet nothing has been done to resolve the question at the heart of the conflict in Kosovo, and which remains the issue of overriding importance for the province's inhabitants: the issue of final status.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

2890. Belgrade's Lagging Reform: Cause for International Concern

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For more than a decade Serbia was the driving force behind much of the instability in the Balkans. Following the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic on 5 October 2000, it was hoped that Serbia would promptly reform the external policies of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) that had caused such disruption. To date, these hopes have been substantially disappointed.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

2891. Aceh: Slim Chance for Peace

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Indonesia's efforts to end the separatist rebellion in Aceh entered a new phase in April 2001 with the launching of a military offensive against the guerrillas of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM). Three months later, the government passed a law conferring “special autonomy”, or limited self- government, on the province. This briefing paper charts recent events in Aceh, updating two ICG reports in 2001 which analysed these two strands of Indonesian policy: military force and the offer of autonomy.
Topic:
Government and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

2892. The IMU and the Hizb-ut-Tahrir: Implications of the Afghanistan Campaign

Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001 and the U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan have intensified the scrutiny of Islamist movements across Central Asia. Of such movements, two – the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Islami (“Party of Islamic Liberation”) – have been of greatest concern to the governments of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and to the broader international community.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan

2893. Center-periphery Relations in the Afghan State: Current Practices, Future Prospects

Author:
Barnett Rubin and Helena Malikyar
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
After decades of violence during which Afghanistan's weak institutions broke down even further, the Bonn agreement of December 5, 2001, provided elements of a road map for rebuilding governance and security in the common interest of the people of Afghanistan and the rest of the international community. The agreement provided a timetable for key political benchmarks to be met by the interim and transitional Afghan governments, such as the convening of the Emergency Loya Jirga, the appointment of the constitutional commission, the adoption of the constitution by another Loya Jirga, and general elections by June 2004.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

2894. The Cost of Multilateral Action

Author:
Shepard Forman, Maurizio Iacopetta, Charles Grayboy, and Yoram Wurmser
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This explanatory note accompanies five tables developed and prepared over the past two years by graduate assistants at the Center on International Cooperation (CIC), New York University. Together, the tables describe CIC's preliminary efforts to aggregate the costs of international public goods and services provided through intergovernmental organizations. It does not account for bilateral funding nor for expenditures from non-governmental and other private actors. While the data is partial and subject to methodological deficiencies, it does provide a framework for estimating annual expenditures associated with the provision of goods and services through intergovernmental organizations as well as an indication of their distribution across sectors and regions. Reporting our findings at this early stage of the work is intended to encourage commentary on both the methodology employed and the findings to date, as well as to stimulate further research on the costs and financing of the international public sector.
Topic:
Government, International Cooperation, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
United States and New York

2895. The Looming Japanese Crisis

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
After more than a decade of economic stagnation and minimal structural change, Japan stands on the brink of outright financial crisis—the only debate is whether the Japanese government can dodge its imminent economic threats for another six months at most, or ride the wave of global expansion to throw still more money at these problems with decreasing effectiveness until the public debt becomes unsustainable (which should be no later than 2005). Either way, volatility in Japanese asset markets will be extremely high for the next 36 months, with significant declines on average in asset prices and the yen.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, and East Asia

2896. Support the Ex-Im Bank: It Has Work to Do!

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Ben Goodrich
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The US Export-Import (Ex-Im) Bank is again at the center of controversy, as Congress debates the terms for its charter renewal. This policy brief critiques provisions of the House and Senate versions of the reauthorization bill and summarizes three justifications for Congress giving adequate support to the Ex-Im Bank. Box 1 provides a capsule description of the Ex-Im Bank's operations.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

2897. Sovereign Debt Restructuring: New Articles, New Contracts – or No Change?

Author:
Marcus Miller
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
It was at the National Economists' Club in November 2001 that Anne Krueger, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, threw down the gauntlet. “There is,” she said, “a gaping hole [in the international financial architecture] – we lack incentives to help countries with unsustainable debts resolve them promptly and in an orderly way. At present the only available mechanism requires the international community to bail out the private creditors. It is high time this hole was filled.”
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

2898. Six Practical Views of Central Bank Transparency

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In the span of fifteen years, central bank transparency has gone from being highly controversial to motherhood and apple pie (one can insert analogous certitudes by country here). It is now an accepted broad goal to which all central banks pay at least lip service. Yet, like many other broad concepts in economic policy, such as “fiscal discipline” or “price stability,” what central bank transparency actually means remains rather open to debate. With the widespread adoption of inflation targeting, seen usually as an expression of increased central bank transparency, it is worthwhile to try to apply some clarity and rigor to this central banking concept du jour.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

2899. The Future of North Korea

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Korean peninsula has entered a period of considerable change and uncertainty. This paper attempts to sketch out how internal and external forces may shape outcomes in North Korea over the next several years. The range of plausible outcomes is huge, and the paper identifies four possible end states: successful reform and engagement, “muddling through,” elite conflict that could affect the nature of the state, if not the regime, and finally, mass mobilization that could threaten the regime itself. This analysis proceeds under a number of assumptions.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and North Korea

2900. Moral Hazard and the U.S. Stock Market: Analyzing the “Greenspan Put”?

Author:
Marcus Miller, Paul Weller, and Lei Zhang
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
When the risk premium in the US stock market fell far below its historic level, Shiller (2000) attributed this to a bubble driven by psychological factors. As an alternative explanation, we point out that the observed risk premium may be reduced by one-sided intervention policy on the part of the Federal Reserve, which leads investors into the erroneous belief that they are insured against downside risk. By allowing for partial credibility and state dependent risk aversion, we show that this 'insurance'—referred to as the Greenspan put—is consistent with the observation that implied volatility rises as the market falls. Our bubble, like Shiller's, involves market psychology, but what we describe is not so much 'irrational exuberance' as exaggerated faith in the stabilizing power of Mr. Greenspan.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States