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  • Author: Jon Faust, John S. Irons
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use smaller information sets and less elaborate approaches to identification than do macroeconometricians, their striking results could be the result of simultaneity and omitted variable biases. Alternatively, political whims may provide the instrument for exogenous policy changes that has been the Grail of the policy identification literature. In this paper, we lay out and apply a framework for distinguishing these possibilities. We find almost no support for the hypothesis that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Political Economy, Politics
  • Author: Neil R. Ericsson, Sunil Sharma
  • Publication Date: 07-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This paper develops a constant, data-coherent, error correction model for broad money demand (M3) in Greece. This model contributes to a better understanding of the effects of monetary policy in Greece, and of the portfolio consequences of financial innovation in general. The broad monetary aggregate M3 was targeted until recently, and current monetary policy still uses such aggregates as guidelines, yet analysis of this aggregate has been dormant for over a decade.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Barry D. Watts
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Since the end of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, there has been growing discussion of the possibility that technological advances in the means of combat would produce ftmdamental changes in how future wars will be fought. A number of observers have suggested that the nature of war itself would be transformed. Some proponents of this view have gone so far as to predict that these changes would include great reductions in, if not the outright elimination of, the various impediments to timely and effective action in war for which the Prussian theorist and soldier Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) introduced the term "friction." Friction in war, of course, has a long historical lineage. It predates Clausewitz by centuries and has remained a stubbornly recurring factor in combat outcomes right down to the 1991 Gulf War. In looking to the future, a seminal question is whether Clausewitzian friction would succumb to the changes in leading-edge warfare that may lie ahead, or whether such impediments reflect more enduring aspects of war that technology can but marginally affect. It is this question that the present essay will examine.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, Government, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Soviet Union, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Robert A. Pastor
  • Publication Date: 03-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: Independent candidates and representatives from 27 political parties contested more than 2,000 municipal and Parliamentary postions in elections in Haiti on June 25, 1995. In the pre-election period, the Provisional Election Council (CEP) judged the qualifications of nearly 12,000 candidates, and disqualified about one thousand without explanations. The process was so prolonged and contentious that the ballots had to be changed up to the last days, and there were numerous mistakes. The CEP's erratic performance led three parties to boycott the election, and virtually all to question the CEP's judgment and independence. The unresponsiveness of the CEP to legitimate complaints raised by the political parties sowed seeds of distrust in the electoral process.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: United Nations, Latin America, Caribbean
  • Author: Mustafa Emirbayer, Jeff Goodwin
  • Publication Date: 10-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Studies of Social Change
  • Abstract: In 1980, Jack Goldstone wrote an influential review essay entitled "Theories of Revolution: The Third Generation." Goldstone noted that a "third generation" of theorists had emerged during the 1970s, one that placed special emphasis on the causal role of political and economic "structures" in social revolutions, especially states, transnational forces, and peasant communities. (By contrast, "second generation" theorists emphasized the role of diffuse "social strains" and their social-psychological consequences) Today, it seems increasingly apparent that this third generation, despite its impressive theoretical contributions, has largely run its course. In fact, as John Foran has recently noted, "the first signs of a new school may be appearing on the intellectual horizon." This new perspective, Foran and many other scholars agree, ought to focus much more attention on culture and ideology (as well as on agency) than did the third generation, but without losing sight of the important role played by political and economic structures.
  • Topic: Government, Politics, Science and Technology
  • Author: Yagil Levy
  • Publication Date: 12-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Studies of Social Change
  • Abstract: Observation of state-military relations in Israel reveals an apparent paradox: Within a period of about seventy years, the more the militarization of Israeli society and politics gradually increased, the more politicians were successful in institutionalizing effective control over the Israel Defence Forces (IDF, and the pre-state organizations). Militarization passed through three main stages: (1) accepting the use of force as a legitimate political instrument during the pre-state period (1920-1948), subsequent to confrontation between pacifism and activism; (2) giving this instrument priority over political-diplomatic means in the state's first years up to the point in which (3) military discursive patterns gradually dominated political discourse after the 1967 War. At the same time, political control over the IDF was tightened, going from the inculcation of the principle of the armed forces' subordination to the political level during the pre-state period to the construction of arrangements working to restrain the military leverage for autonomous action.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Mustafa Emirbayer, Ann Miscbe
  • Publication Date: 01-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Studies of Social Change
  • Abstract: The concept of agency has become a source of increasing strain and confusion in social thought. Variants of action theory, normative theory, and political-institutional analysis have defended, attacked, buried, and resuscitated the concept in often contradictory and overlapping ways. At the center of the debate, the term "agency" itself has maintained an elusive, albeit resonant, vagueness; it has given rise to a long list of associated (and often equally vague) terms, such as selthood, motivation, will, purposiveness, intentionality, choice, initiative, freedom, and creativity. Yet despite the growing numbers of recent theorists -- ranging from Jeffrey Alexander, Anthony Giddens, and Pierre Bourdieu to Jurgen Habermas and James Coleman -- who have addressed the so-called "structure and agency problem," the concept of agency itself has been surprisingly neglected. In the struggle to demonstrate the interpenetration of agency and structure, most theorists have failed to distinguish agency as an analytical category in its own right -- with distinctive theoretical dimensions and temporally variable social manifestations. The result has been a flat and impoverished conception that, when it escapes the abstract voluntarism of rational choice theory, tends to remain so tightly bound to structure that one loses sight of the different ways in which agency actually shapes social action.
  • Topic: Government, Politics, Science and Technology
  • Author: John W. Slocum
  • Publication Date: 07-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Cornell University Peace Studies Program
  • Abstract: Practitioners of the late lamented science of Sovietology have been roundly criticized for failing to predict one of the most momentous events of the twentieth century—the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Anxious to avoid a repetition of past mistakes, post-Sovietologists have in turn devoted a good deal of attention to the question of whether the USSR's largest successor state, the Russian Federation, is itself in danger of breaking apart. Like the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation is a multinational state with ethnically-defined territorial subunits; political elites in these subunits, faced with massive political, economic and social uncertainty, may be attracted by the idea of political independence. During the first half of the 1990s, post-Soviet Russia has indeed experienced more than one crisis of center-periphery relations. The present study, however, suggests that the likelihood of a general disintegration of the Russian Federation peaked in the early 1990s and is now decreasing. In view of this analysis, the war in Chechnya is an exception to an overall trend toward consolidation, rather than an indicator of a general breakdown in center-periphery relations.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, Nationalism
  • Political Geography: Russia, Soviet Union, Chechnya
  • Author: Kenneth Prewitt, Susan Raymond, Young Gul Kim, Rodney Nichols, Jorge Allende, Arima Akito, Jesse Ausubel, Edward Ayensu, D. Allan Bromley, Praveen Chaudhari, Umberto Colombo, Yuri Gleba, Mark Horn, Coe Ishimoto, Geraldine Kenney-Wallace, Jan Nilsson, Geoffrey Oldham, R. K. Pachauri, Heinz Riesenhuber, Zehev Tadmor, Greg Tegart, Raimundo Villegas, Guillermo Cardoza, Diana Wolff-Albers, William Padolina
  • Publication Date: 11-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: New York Academy of Sciences
  • Abstract: In the fall of 1995, with assistance from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the New York Academy of Sciences organized a meeting on international collaboration in science, engineering, and medicine. The meeting was held at the Rockefeller Foundation's conference center in Bellagio, Italy from October 30 through November 2, 1995. The Academy gathered together a group of experienced international leaders to examine changes in the context and con– tent of global research cooperation and the efficacy of existing institutional mechanisms to facilitate future scientific activities. The meeting resulted in a summary report presenting the consensual views of the participants, and the New York Academy of Sciences is currently exploring a range of follow–up options with its institutional partners. Copies of the report can be obtained by contacting the Academy at the address listed below. The critical question under review at Bellagio was to assess current disparities among research opportunities, needs, and institutions and to determine the need for a more extensive international review. Discussions were based in part on extensive preparation. Prior to the meeting, all participants prepared personal statements summarizing their views of future directions for scientific collaboration, key lessons from past experience, and fundamental characteristics of successful collaborative mechanisms. These statements together with a summary issues paper produced by the New York Academy of Sciences, the meeting agenda, and biographical information on participants are collected here. The statements appear as originally distributed; none have been revised in light of the meeting's discussion. With 25 different perspectives it is to be expected that a diversity of views are represented here. However, the commentaries fall broadly along four lines of inquiry.
  • Topic: Government, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: New York
2860. Not Even One
  • Publication Date: 02-1994
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: We gathered at The Carter Center, 26 people from various fields and disciplines, all concerned with protecting and lengthening the lives of children, to seek a path forward amid the carnage of our children caused by firearms. What could be done to stem the hemorrhage in the streets?
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 08-1994
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: The national elections on August 21, 1994 will be an important milestone in Mexico's political opening. During the last four years, the Mexican Congress approved a number of important reforms to the electoral process. Yet the Mexican population remains highly skeptical about the integrity of the elections. Opinion polls show that nearly one-half of respondents expect fraud, and more than one half expect post-electoral violence.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: Latin America, North America, Mexico
  • Author: Richard Joseph
  • Publication Date: 05-1994
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: On May 13-14, 1994, a group of 32 scholars and practitioners took part in a seminar on Democratization in Africa at The Carter Center. This consultation was a sequel to two similar meetings held in February 1989 and March 1990. Discussion papers from those seminars have been published under the titles, Beyond Autocracy in Africa and African Governance in the 1990s. During the period 1990-94, the African Governance Program of The Carter Center moved from discussions and reflections to active involvement in the complex processes of renewed democratization in several African countries. These developments throughout Africa were also monitored and assessed in the publication, Africa Demos.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Africa, North America
  • Author: Jimmy Carter
  • Publication Date: 12-1992
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: The Conference for Global Development Cooperation, convened by former President Jimmy Carter and United Nations Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali, was held at The Carter Center in Atlanta, Georgia on December 4 and 5, 1992.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, Third World
  • Political Geography: United Nations, Georgia
  • Publication Date: 11-1992
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: Robert Pastor, Director of the Latin American and Caribbean Program at The Carter Center and Executive Secretary of the Council, opened the conference with a reference to Mexican Nobel Laureate Octavio Paz who once said, "A nation without free elections is a nation without a voice, without eyes, and without ears." Pastor noted that the right to free and fair elections is a universal right enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations and the Charter of the Organization of American States. In the spirit of honoring that right, the Council was formed in 1986 to lend support and assistance to the democratization movement in the Americas.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, United Nations, Latin America
  • Author: The Conference Center
  • Publication Date: 07-1992
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: In the two years that have elapsed since The Carter Center hosted "Investigating Abuses and Introducing Human Rights Safeguards in the Democratization Process," the issues we discussed then have become even more pivotal as our views of governance and the rights of individuals and of state sovereignty itself are being fundamentally transformed. It was our view that, although the Center did not previously publish the seminar proceedings, making them available at this time would serve to further inform those who are working in this field by providing insightful observations by many human rights activists, journalists, and academicians who were involved directly in political transitions in their own countries and by others who studied these events from the outside.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, Human Rights, International Cooperation
  • Author: Jesus Velasco
  • Publication Date: 01-1992
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: During the late 1960s and early 1970s, the U.S. Congress became very concerned about the increasing role played by the President in foreign affairs. On November 7, 1973, and as a mechanism to diminish the power achieved by the Chief Executive in international matters, Congress passed the War Powers Resolution (WPR) over Richard Nixon's veto. The basic aim of the law was to prevent the President from unilaterally introducing the armed forces abroad without congressional authorization. In so doing, Congress sought "to fulfill the intent of the framers of the American Constitution."
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Government
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 05-1990
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: During the entire electoral process, the political system in Nicaragua gradually opened so that by election day, the major political parties acknowledged that they had an adequate opportunity to explain their positions to the Nicaraguan people. The Council of Freely-Elected Heads of Government shared the conclusion of the parties: the Nicaraguan people were free to vote their preferences in a fair election, and the official results reflected the collective will of the nation.
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, Government, Peace Studies, Politics
  • Political Geography: Latin America, Central America
  • Publication Date: 02-1989
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: The aim of the inaugural seminar of the Governance in Africa Program (G.A.P.) was to bring together a diverse group of scholars to reflect on some of the central issues which confront the continent. The program takes its acronym from the increasing gap between the democratic and developmental aspirations expressed during the anti-colonial struggle and the monopolization of power and the deepening economic predicament today.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Jimmy Carter
  • Publication Date: 04-1988
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: The United States faces a competitiveness crisis. The indicators are abundant. An alarming number of American students and workers do not seem to have the skills needed to succeed in the more demanding jobs of the modern economy. Many American inventions never make it from drawing board to marketplace, or arrive too late - long after aggressive foreign firms have captured customer loyalty. Some American products have been improperly designed or priced too high to compete with top-quality foreign imports. Partly as a result, not enough American companies have penetrated foreign markets with U.S. goods and services.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States