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3091. Israel — Sharon Victory

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Likud leader Ariel Sharon's resounding victory in last Tuesday's election for prime minister has produced a chaotic political situation. The Knesset is likely to remain as dysfunctional as it was before the election campaign and Sharon will face immense difficulties in his attempts to form a government and pass the budget. Even should he succeed, it is possible that the government will fall before the next scheduled election, and that he will face a credible challenge from former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

3092. Ukraine — Kuchma Cornered

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Opposition deputies, led by former justice minister Serhiy Holovatiy, have called on President Leonid Kuchma to resign over his alleged involvement in the murder of a journalist. The scandal has provoked popular protests and divided Kuchma's non-left majority in parliament, although the work of the reformist government has not been adversely affected. The case has highlighted the absence of the rule of law and the executive's control over supposedly independent state organs. Kuchma's fate depends on his ability to retain the support of oligarchic interests, some of which have already defected. His departure would enable the popular Yushchenko to campaign for the presidency while enjoying the benefits of incumbency, albeit in a temporary capacity.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

3093. United Kingdom — Mandelson Departure

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Peter Mandelson, resigned in acrimonious circumstances last week. Mandelson was a key figure in the reconstruction of the Labour Party in the 1990s and the most prominent partisan of early euro entry in the UK cabinet. While Mandelson's departure will be felt within the Labour Party and comes at a critical time in the Northern Ireland peace process, the most substantial impact is likely to be on the internal debate within the cabinet over euro-area entry, with the consequence of a diminishing likelihood of an early referendum on the issue.
Topic:
Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and North Ireland

3094. Philippines — Macapagal-Arroyo Elevation

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Newly inaugurated President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo installed herself in Manila's Malacanang presidential palace on January 22. Macapagal-Arroyo's elevation from vice-president to president represents the culmination of a long campaign by opposition politicians and civic figures to unseat Joseph Estrada from the presidency. While Macapagal-Arroyo's administrative style is likely to differ markedly from her predecessor, her accession also represents the return to political prominence of elite groups closely associated with the presidencies of Corazon Aquino and Fidel Ramos. The ouster of Estrada significantly diminishes the political and economic uncertainty and instability which has plagued the country for several months. However, as the euphoria of 'people power' fades, factional politics within the new administration, and the regrouping of pro-Estrada forces in a new opposition, are likely to present Macapagal-Arroyo with significant challenges.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Philippines and Southeast Asia

3095. CIAO: Russia: Weimar Analogy

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Striking parallels exist between post-Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany (1918-33) with regard to their international position, socio-economic conditions, sense of defeat and humiliation, and political situation. The analogy implies that a fascist regime is likely to come to power in Russia. However, the underlying causes of economic distress, the structure of the political system, and the cultural context in post-Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany also differ. Thus, contemporary Russia has weak fascist movements. The regime that emerges will probably be authoritarian and nationalist in character, and may to some extent exhibit fascist tendencies, but is very unlikely to be fully fascist in the classical sense.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and Germany

3096. Privatization and the Distribution of Assets in Brazil

Author:
Roberto Macedo
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
This paper focuses on the Brazilian privatization program undertaken in the 1990s, one of the largest in the world, as a result of which over US$71 billion worth of equity capital and US$17 billion of debt owed by the former state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were transferred to private owners, both at the federal and state levels.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Latin America

3097. Natural Resources, Human Capital, and Growth

Author:
Nancy Birdsall, Thomas Pinckney, and Richard Sabot
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In this paper, we present evidence that among developing countries, those that are resource-abundant invest less in education. We then discuss the economic processes behind this evidence. We describe a virtuous circle in which rising private returns to human capital and other assets lead to increased work effort and higher rates of private investment immediately, including among the poor, and generate higher productivity and lower inequality in the future. With resource abundance, however, governments are tempted to move away from the policies that generate this virtuous circle. Dutch Disease and related effects tend to lower the rate of return to the agricultural and human capital investments available to the poor. Resource rents accumulate in the hands of the government, and/or a small number of businessmen, further reducing incentives to invest. Staple-trap effects lead to the subsidization of capital, thereby taxing labor. The labor market in the resulting capital-intensive economy offers little benefit for moderate levels of education. The government may try to assuage the poor by directing some proportion of resource rents to populist programs that create new fiscal burdens but that do not enhance productivity. In short, resource abundance tends to break the virtuous circle linking education, growth and inequality in several places: the choice of development strategy, the level of inequality, the lack of incentives for investment in education, and the creation of a welfare state. We illustrate this breakdown by contrasting the cases of Korea and Brazil, and, since resource abundance need not be destiny, we conclude with policy lessons for resource-abundant developing economies.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, Government, Political Economy, and Third World
Political Geography:
Brazil and Korea

3098. Democracy Assistance and NGO Strategies in Post-Communist Societies

Author:
Sarah E. Mendelson and John K. Glenn
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, Eastern Europe and Eurasia have been host to a virtual army of Western non-governmental organizations (NGOs)-from the United States, Britain, Germany, and elsewhere in Europe-all working on various aspects of institutional development, such as helping to establish competitive political parties and elections, independent media, and civic advocacy groups, as well as trying to reduce ethnic conflict. Little is known-although much good and bad is believed-about the impact of this assistance, carried out on a transnational level in cooperation with local political and social activists. This study, based at Columbia University, was designed to address this gap.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, International Organization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

3099. Naturalization in the Wake of Anti-Immigrant Legislation: Dominicans in New York City

Author:
Audrey Singer and Greta Gilbertson
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The motives of immigrants who seek to naturalize in the United States are a source of current controversy. Recent events, such as the passage in 1996 of anti-immigrant laws, appear to have increased the benefits of becoming a U.S. citizen and the costs of remaining a legal permanent resident. Critics of recent policies have argued that the laws pushed immigrants to naturalize in order to retain social welfare benefits, thus cheapening the value of U.S. citizenship. Most of the debate on this issue, however, is based on rhetoric rather than observation. The extant literature provides little insight into how these recent developments influence immigrants' propensity to naturalize through shaping their perceptions of citizenship. How immigrants understand and view the costs and benefits of U.S. citizenship are important, because they are likely to be the most proximate determinants of naturalization decisions (Alvarez 1987; Yang 1994).
Topic:
Government and Migration
Political Geography:
United States and New York

3100. Arrogance of Power Reborn: The Imperial Presidency and Foreign Policy in the Clinton Years

Author:
Gene Healy
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In his classic 1973 book The Imperial Presidency, historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr. warned that the American political system was threatened by “a conception of presidential power so spacious and peremptory as to imply a radical transformation of the traditional polity.” America's rise to global dominance and Cold War leadership, Schlesinger explained, had dangerously concentrated power in the presidency, transforming the Framers' energetic but constitutionally constrained chief executive into a sort of elected emperor with virtually unchecked authority in the international arena.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and America