Topic: Government - CIAO Search Results

2601. Can India and Pakistan Seize the Moment?

Author:: Teresita Schaffer and Paul A. Longo
Publication Date:: 07-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Two months after Indian prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's offer to extend “the hand of friendship” to neighboring Pakistan, the two countries are exchanging ambassadors and have begun restoring transport links, but discussions on their underlying dispute have yet to take shape. The next few months provide a crucial opportunity to begin a serious peace effort. Should this window of time pass by without progress, however, internal politics in both countries may rule out another try for a year or two.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and Middle East

2602. The Changing Face of Russia-South Asia Relations

Author:: Kavita Sangani and Teresita C. Schaffer
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Russia is broadening its relations with South Asia, as illustrated in the recent visits by Pakistan's President Musharraf to Russia and Russia's President Putin to India. Russia's long-standing ties with India are still driven by important defense links and shared hopes to create a multipolar world. Both countries are trying to breathe new life into their much-diminished economic relationship. Russia's new interest in Pakistan is driven largely by concerns about Islamic extremism and Central Asia. At a time when Russia's priorities are to a large extent internal, South Asia is a relatively accessible area for engaging in global geopolitics, but Russia is unlikely to become a major player in India- Pakistan diplomacy in the next few years.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, South Asia, and Asia

2603. The HIV/AIDS Crisis in India

Author:: Mandavi Mehta
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: India is poised on the verge of a sharp escalation of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, with profound consequences for the state's society, economy and polity. This crisis will not affect India alone. In an increasingly interconnected world, the effects of such an epidemic will be globally felt, both directly in terms of the spread of infection, and indirectly in terms of the overall security and economic and political health of the region.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and South Asia

2604. Opportunity Lost? Indian Budget 2003–2004

Author:: Amir Ahmad and Teresita C. Schaffer
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: India's budget for fiscal year 2003–2004 will make some contribution to short-term growth but continues the piecemeal approach to economic policy apparent in the last two budgets. With four key state elections during the first half of 2003 and national elections due in 2004, we can expect India's economic policy to muddle through rather than taking bold initiatives. India's growth, under these circumstances, will depend largely on the weather and on a few major investment decisions, and it is not likely to surge ahead in the immediate future.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: South Asia

2605. India-Pakistan Trade: Creating Constituencies for Peace

Author:: Kavita Sangani
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Bilateral trade between India and Pakistan is extraordinarily low—less than 1 percent of their global trade. Their volatile political relationship has overwhelmed attempts to encourage trade between the two countries, and has also impacted economic integration in the South Asian region as a whole. There are both political and economic obstacles to expanding trade between the two countries. Greater economic co-operation could, however, provide mutual economic benefits, such as lower prices for consumers, much-needed revenue for the governments, and cost-effective gas import to India via Pakistan. Perhaps most importantly, it could generate new linkages between the two business communities, thereby nurturing constituencies for peace in the region.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: South Asia, Middle East, and India

2606. The Istanbul Bombs: Challenging The Turkish Model?

Author:: Bulent Aliriza
Publication Date:: 12-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The four massive truck bombs which targeted two synagogues on November 15, and just five days later, the British Consulate and a British-based bank in Istanbul, claimed fifty five Turkish and foreign victims – including the British Consul General - and wounded hundreds more, while causing millions of dollars of material damage. Beyond their immediate impact, the terrorist attacks caused incalculable collateral damage to the sense of security of the Turkish people by undermining the prevailing domestic tranquility. At an even wider level, the terrorists responsible for the outrages, who demonstrated once again that they would not draw the line at killing fellow Moslems in the misguided pursuit of their goals, also dragged Turkey into the frontline of their war.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

2607. Turkey, The United States And Iraq: Continuing Differences

Author:: Baris Omali
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: On October 7, the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA), dominated by the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) approved a resolution authorizing the government to send Turkish troops to Iraq. After the 358 to 183 vote, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan commented that Turkey had “come to the decision that it can't totally fulfill its duty as a neighbor in this big transformation process of Iraq with only political, humanitarian and economic support, without military contributions.” Although over 60 percent of the Turkish public were opposed to deployment, Erdogan committed his personal prestige and unchallenged authority over JDP parliamentarians to ensure a positive vote in contrast to the parliamentary reverse on March 1.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

2608. Reforming for Europe

Author:: Seda Ciftci
Publication Date:: 08-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: As Ankara struggled through its typically hot summer, the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) was hard at work. The Justice and Development Party (JDP) government, which has 366 seats in the 550-member TGNA, pushed through major legislative packages tied to European Union (EU) requirements for eventual Turkish membership just before its two-month legislative break on August 1. Parallel to its efforts related to its declared primary objective of EU membership, the government also managed to successfully conclude the fifth IMF review, leading to the release of a $500 million tranche and the easing of the debt repayment schedule by the IMF, while endeavoring to repair the crucial relationship with the US.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

2609. Seeking Redefinition: U.S.-Turkish Relations After Iraq

Author:: Bulent Aliriza
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: It has been three months since the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) failed to muster the appropriate number of votes to allow the United States to open a northern front through Turkey against Iraq. In retrospect it is clear that the March 1 vote reflected the public opposition to the imminent conflict, the perceptible ambivalence of the powerful military establishment and its reluctance to provide an unambiguous recommendation - in particular at the National Security Council (NSC) meeting one day before the vote - and the attitude of President Ahmet Necdet Sezer. It also reflected the inability of the governing Justice and Development Party (JDP) to overcome its deep misgivings about the war to give a sufficiently clear lead.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

2610. Cyprus: Turkey's Other Difficult Decision

Author:: Seda Ciftci
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Overshadowed by the surprising failure on March 1 of the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) to permit the deployment of American forces to open a northern front through Turkey in the likely war with Iraq, and the resulting strains in the US-Turkish relationship, the Cyprus issue has also reached a diplomatic climax. On March 4-5, the Turkish Cypriot leader, Rauf Denktas, who has been under increasing pressure from United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, came to Ankara seeking support. Proclaiming himself satisfied with his talks with Turkish leaders, Denktas now heads into a crucial meeting at The Hague on March 10 with Annan and newly elected Greek Cypriot leader Tassos Papadopoulos. The governing Justice and Development Party (JDP), which has been promoting a settlement of the Cyprus problem, now faces the prospect of the collapse of the UN-sponsored efforts as well as additional complications in Turkey's relations with the European Union (EU). However, despite JDP Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdogan's complaints about the difficulties of dealing with the Iraq and Cyprus issues at the same time, he cannot avoid the urgent decisions that will redefine Turkish foreign policy.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: America, Turkey, Middle East, and Cyprus

2611. Issues Matter: Social Attributes, Political Predispositions, and Issues Influence Voting

Author:: Robert B. Smith
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:: To clarify the relative impacts of economic and social issues, this study analyzes a 1992 election night survey assessing how social attributes, ideological selfdesignation (liberal, centrist, conservative), party identification (Democrat, Independent, Republican), and the issues influenced the voters' choices. Residents of coastal regions, women, paid workers, and first time workers leaned toward a liberal ideology whereas ethnic minorities, older people, and poor people espoused a Democratic identification. Ideology had a direct effect on party identification, which had a very strong direct effect on vote. A latent structure analysis of the issues produced a Left-Center-Right classification. The Right is more ideologically consistent than the Left; Clinton got much of the Center's vote and this led to his victory. The issues, combined and separate, influenced the vote. The economic issue had a stronger effect on the Clinton vote than issues of health care reform, the environment, and lack of concern about a candidate's character. The character issue may be rooted in women's health issues: pro-life respondents may disparage the character of pro-choice candidates. The economic issue had little effect on the Perot vote (relative to that for Bush), whereas reform, the environment, and lack of concern about character distinguished Perot voters from Bush voters. Interactions among the issues indicated that Democratic advocacy of environmental protection somewhat weakened the effect of a negative campaign directed against Clinton's character.
Topic:: Demographics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States

2612. Mirror Images of Religious Fanaticism: India and Pakistan

Author:: Ehsan Ahrari
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:: Two heartrending bylines from South Asia,reported in the New York Times on February 23, 2003, made me think how much India and Pakistan are mirror-imaging one another when it comes to the rising spirals of religious intolerance, indeed, fanaticism. The chief focus of this fanaticism in India has been on Muslims, and to a lesser extent, on Christians. In the case of Pakistan, religious intolerance involves Christians as well the followers of another sect of Islam, Shias. The byline from New Delhi read, "Hindu Group in India demands a temple," and the one from Islamabad read, "Gunmen kill seven worshippers at a mosque in Pakistan."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: South Asia

2613. Disenchanted Conscription: A Military Recruitment System in Need of Justification

Author:: Anna Leander
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The Economist's point of view is a widely shared one. It also seems warranted by current trends in policy-making in developed democracies. The US, the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain, and Portugal have abolished or are phasing out conscription. Even France, mother of citizens armies through the revolutionary levée en masse, just saw (literally as the event was broadcasted as a main feature of the evening television news) its last conscript leave the armed forces. The Nordic countries and Germany have not abolished conscription, but conscripts make up a shrinking share of the armed forces, which governments plan to shrink even further. For many observers this confirms that they simply lag behind. They will soon be brought to reason and abolish conscription. But this is a simplistic understanding of what determines the fate of conscription.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, and Portugal

2614. The Plight of African States and Good Governance

Author:: Sadaharu Kataoka
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: Promoting good governance and improving governance in Africa has drawn increasing attention from the international community as a new approach to solving a variety of problems such as military conflicts, poverty, and sluggish economic development. The question of how to achieve good governance came under the spotlight in the 1990s following the end of the Cold War era. Establishing good governance, along with democratization, has now come to be recognized an issue related to the "conditionality" imposed by donor countries on recipients in exchange for financial assistance.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Africa

2615. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Urban Dynamics in Chengdu, 1975–2002

Author:: Douglas Webster, Jianming Cai, Binyi Luo, Annemarie Schneider, and Karen C. Seto
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Chengdu, the provincial capital of Sichuan, has undergone rapid transformation during China's post-reform period between 1978 and 2003. One of the leading cities in southwest China, Chengdu is second only to Chongqing in population. Chengdu anchors one end of the Chongqing-Chengdu urban corridor, the fourth most populous urban cluster in China. Although the upgrading of Chongqing Municipality to the equivalent of provincial status in 1997 has increased the city's profile and potential as an administrative, land transportation, and manufacturing center, it is expected that Chengdu's regional and strategic importance as a service and high-tech center will increase in the future. With increased economic specialization among Chinese cities, it is expected that Chengdu and Chongqing cities will increasingly complement each other in terms of function, both enhancing their developmental prospects as a result. Further, the development of western China is a major objective of the Tenth Five Year Plan. The “Go West” policy was introduced in 1999.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Chongqing, and Chengdu

2616. Tax Reforms for Enhancing the Stable Development of the Chinese Financial System

Author:: Lawrence J. Lau and Guijuan Wang
Publication Date:: 09-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The Chinese economy has had the highest rate of growth in the world in the past two decades. However, despite its rapid growth and the significant improvements in its financial system, serious risks and problems still exist in both the commercial banking sector and the stock market, that may potentially threaten the stable development and growth of the entire economy. In this paper, these risks and problems in the stock market and the commercial banking sector are identified. Possible solutions are then discussed. Finally, tax reforms are proposed that have the effects of (1) eliminating the double taxation on cash dividends from corporate profits; (2) encouraging the substitution of new equity for existing debt by corporations, which can lower the P/E ratios without lowering the stock prices and improve quality of commercial bank assets by reducing the probability of new nonperforming loans; and (3) attracting new and longer-term investors, both domestic and foreign, to the Chinese stock market. It is also shown that the proposed tax reforms will not result in a significant reduction in total fiscal revenue.
Topic:: Economics and Government
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2617. Farmer's Willingness to Pay for Power in India

Author:: Rafiq Dossani and V. Ranganathan
Publication Date:: 07-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Electric power for rural pumpset usage is subsidized by all the states in India, the subsidy being estimated at 1.1 percent of GDP. Users are charged a highly subsidized, flat, annual fee that varies with pumpset size. This fixed charge has encouraged waste and raised subsidies over time. Unwilling to bear these costs any longer, states have proposed a range of strategies, including independent regulation, metering of agricultural pumpsets, and raising prices.
Topic:: Economics and Government
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

2618. The Politics of China's Shareholding System

Author:: Mary Comerford Cooper
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This paper considers two questions. First, why did the Chinese government establish stock markets? Second, how have political interests shaped the key features of these markets? Based on both interviews and statistical analysis, the paper argues that China's top Party-State leaders attempted to create stock market institutions that allow the state to maintain control over listed companies, and over “the market” as a whole.
Topic:: Economics and Government
Political Geography:: China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2619. Local Governments and the Chinese Stock Market

Author:: Mary Comerford Cooper
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This paper examines a key aspect of the politics of stock markets in China—the distinct differences in interests between central government leaders and local governments. Central government leaders have a powerful incentive to promote macroeconomic stability and good performance of the stock market. Local leaders, for their part, are less concerned with the overall performance of the stock market than with gaining access to the stock market for companies under their own jurisdiction. The paper demonstrates that company listing brings tangible economic benefits to municipalities. Listed companies are associated with higher levels of gross domestic product (GDP), budgetary revenue, and industrial and commercial tax revenue. Therefore, it is not surprising that local officials put substantial effort into lobbying for the right to list additional companies on the national stock exchanges.
Topic:: Communism, Democratization, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2620. Sociological Dimensions of China's Economic Transition: Organization, Stratification, and Social Mobility

Author:: Andrew G. Walder
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Despite skepticism about official economic statistics, there is little doubt that China since 1978 has undergone an economic transformation of historic proportions. This outcome stands in stark opposition to arguments that were once widely accepted in several scholarly communities, and which are still highly influential even today. In the early 1980s there was wide agreement that “partial” reform, under a single party dictatorship that sought indefinitely to preserve public ownership, was a recipe for failure. China specialists, students of comparative economic systems, and economists who advised governments and international agencies about postcommunist restructuring in Eurasia were initially in broad agreement on this point.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2621. International Organizations and Democratization: Testing the Effect of GATT/WTO Membership

Author:: Mary Comerford Cooper
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Does the World Trade Organization promote democracy? A large part of the heated and protracted debate over China's application for WTO membership revolved around this question. Prior to China's WTO accession in December 2001, this debate had dragged on for nearly fifteen years. While one side argued that WTO membership would promote democratization in China, others argued that the wealth generated through economic integration would provide the resources to maintain authoritarian rule. Only time will tell whether WTO accession will contribute to pressures for democratization in China. In the meantime, however, this paper examines the empirical basis for these competing claims about the effects of GATT/WTO memberships on domestic political systems. Based on statistical analysis of a global data set, this paper concludes that members of the international trade regime are more likely than nonmembers to be democracies. However, there is little evidence that WTO membership in itself can promote democratic transition. Instead, it appears to be the case that democratic countries are more likely to seek to join the WTO.
Topic:: Communism, Democratization, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2622. Politics and Property in Transitional Economies: A Theory of Elite Opportunity

Author:: Andrew G. Walder
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Command economies gave communist-era elites administrative control and material privilege but severely restricted money income and private wealth. Markets and privatization inject new value into public assets and create unprecedented opportunities for elite insiders to extract incomes or assume ownership. These opportunities vary with the extensiveness of regime change and the barriers to asset appropriation. Within these limits, they further vary with the concentration and form of economic assets and structural changes induced by reform. Elite advantages are smallest where regime change is extensive and barriers to asset appropriation are high, and in small-scale economies that grow rapidly. In China, there has been no regime change and privatization has been delayed and slow. In the rural economy, elites keep their posts as a source of economic advantage, while low entry barriers to household enterprise and rapid growth have created new entrepreneurial elites. After two decades, rural officials nonetheless enjoy large net income advantages that grow along with the expansion of labor markets and private entrepreneurship. These are not generic outcomes of market reform, but the product of market reform in distinctive political and structural conditions.
Topic:: Communism, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2623. Electricity Restructuring

Author:: John A. Riggs and Paul Runci
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: Over the July 4th weekend, seventy current and former government officials and experts from industry, academia, and consumer and environmental public interest groups met to discuss the state of the U.S. electricity industry. The lack of progress in addressing critical electricity issues will increase costs and reduce performance in the electricity sector over the next several years. The long-term future of electricity supply and demand is also clouded by the absence of clear and stable government policies.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

2624. Journalism, Security and the Public Interest

Author:: Adam Clymer
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: In the wake of the national trauma of September 11, 2001, if there was one nostrum that dominated national commentary, it was “nothing will ever be the same again.”
Topic:: Government and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States

2625. The Rise of Netpolitik: How the Internet Is Changing International Politics and Diplomacy

Author:: David Bollier
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: In the midst of her travels as Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright decided to venture off the standard diplomatic tour and visit the local market in Bakhara, Uzbekistan. “For all intents and purposes it could have been in the fifteenth century,” she recalled. “It was a big camel market, with rugs that looked liked they had been hanging there for a long time. Dust and all that.”
Topic:: Diplomacy, Government, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology

2626. Balancing Policy Options in a Turbulent Telecommunications Market

Author:: Robert M. Entman and Dale N. Hatfield
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: In 2002, the Aspen Institute Conference on Telecommunications Policy deviated from its traditional single annual gathering in Aspen by holding two meetings—one on spectrum policy and the other on broader telecommunications issues. The first convening, held last spring at the Aspen Wye River campus, focused on reforming spectrum policy; a subsequent meeting was held in the usual August time slot. This summer meeting went beyond the issue of spectrum policy to delve into more pressing issues surrounding an industry experiencing more than its of share of troubles. This report is a synthesis of both convenings, with an emphasis on the larger context provided by the summer colloquy.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Government, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology

2627. China's New Leadership: Paradoxes, Characteristics and Implications

Author:: Cheng Li
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: In his seven-decade-long academic career, the great British historian, Joseph Needham, tried to explain what Sinologists later called “the Needham Paradox.” It was a paradox that, while traditional China had many talented people and was advanced in science, the country declined during the middle part of the last millennium. According to Needham, a primary reason for the decline of China was that the country “lost its edge” by suppressing technicians and merchants “whose power posed a threat to the Emperor.”
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2628. Taiwan's Approach to Cross-Strait Relations

Author:: Ying-jeou Ma
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: Civil war broke out between the Nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) Government of China and the Chinese Communist forces shortly after Japan surrendered to the Allied forces in 1945. Having occupied most of the country by mid-1949, the Chinese Communists proclaimed in Beijing the establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC) on October 1, 1949. The Nationalist Government retreated to Taiwan, an island of 13,969 square miles just 90 miles off the coast of the Chinese Mainland, in December that year and continued to call itself the Republic of China (ROC). Sporadic battles continued in coastal areas of the Chinese Mainland.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, East Asia, Asia, and Island

2629. Emergency Responders: Drastically Underfunded, Dangerously Unprepared

Author:: Warren B. Rudman, Richard A. Clarke, and Jamie F. Metzl
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: If we knew that there was going to be a terrorist attack sometime in the next five years but did not know what type of attack it would be, who would carry it out, or where in the United States it would occur, what actions would we take to prepare and how would we allocate our human and financial resources to do so? The tragic events of September 11, 2001 brought home to the American people the magnitude of the danger posed by terrorism on U.S. soil. Now, in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, the United States must assume that terrorists will strike again, possibly using chemical, biological, radiological, or even nuclear materials. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Government
Political Geography:: United States

2630. Better Safe than Sorry: Applying the Precautionary Principle to Issues of International Security

Author:: Marc Houben
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The strategic condition of the world is characterised by the fact that pre-emptive military action may be necessary. This condition is based on the realisation that legitimate national governments have lost their monopoly on the use of force while determined individuals and groups of individuals can lay their hands on weapons with which they can inflict huge, even irreversible damage to entire societies. Assuming that preemptive military action is here to stay and we should be determined not to let it escape democratic control. This paper seeks the procedures and checks that should be in place if pre-emptive military action is to be firmly embedded in democratic practices and institutions. To that end, it reviews the application of the precautionary principle in the environmental and food safety domains and assesses whether the procedural checks and practices used there can also have their utility in the international security domain.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Government, and War

2631. Public Opinion and Enlargement: A Gravity Approach

Author:: Erik Jones and Niels van der Bijl
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Popular support for enlargement of the European Union is a function of how close or how far removed the member states are from the candidate countries. In the absence of country fixed effects or special bilateral relationships (e.g. adjacency, historic rivalry, religious conformity), we can explain approximately 14% of the variation in attitudes across member states and with regard to specific candidate countries using factors related to trade, distance, and relative economic size and structure. Taking special bilateral relations into account we can explain approximately 30%. Once country fixed effects are incorporated, the level of explanation increases to 80%.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: Europe

2632. The Draft Constitutional Treaty's Voting Reform Dilemma

Author:: Richard Baldwin and Mika Widgren
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The ongoing Intergovernmental Conference (IGC 2003) must re-shape Giscard d'Estaing's draft into a Constitutional Treaty that can be signed and subsequently ratified by all 25 members of the enlarged European Union.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

2633. Reform of Corporate Governance in the EU

Author:: Karel Lannoo and Arman Khachaturyan
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This Policy Brief criticis es the European Commission's proposal to mandate compliance with a local corporate governance code and to set minimum criteria for these codes. It argues that the European Commission missed an opportunity to set a European corporate governance code in the mid -1990s, and that much of the proposals are simply reactive to events and new legislation in the US. Europe should have highlighted the strength of its diversity, and emphasised that the basic elements of corporate governance are better controlled in the EU than t hey are in the US, rather than embarking on a complex harmonisation exercise.
Topic:: Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe

2634. Decision-Making and the Constitutional Treaty: Will the IGC discard Giscard?

Author:: Richard Baldwin and Mika Widgren
Publication Date:: 08-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The EU's draft Constitutional Treaty proposes the most radical reform of EU institutions ever put forward - more radical than those in the Single European Act, the Maastricht and Nice Treaties combined. Many of the changes have been debated, but little notice has been paid to what is perhaps the most critical reform: the change in the EU's decision-making procedures.
Topic:: Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe

2635. Where is the transatlantic divide in public opinion on climate change issues? Evidence for 1989-2002

Author:: Thomas L. Brewer
Publication Date:: 07-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This paper is based on an analysis of the results of more than 40 public opinion surveys taken during the period from 1989 through 2002; special attention is given to surveys taken during 2000-02. The analysis concludes that approximately two-fifths of the public are seriously concerned about global warming. Another two-fifths are moderately concerned; shifts in the opinions of this moderately concerned group would likely alter the future course of government policies. The other one-fifth of the public does not consider global warming much of a problem, does not worry about it very much or not at all, and does not believe that carbon dioxide emissions are a cause of it. A substantial majority of the US public wants the government to do something about the problem of global warming, and they would like the US to participate in the Kyoto Protocol. Most respondents prefer mandatory rather than voluntary emission reductions by industry. A majority of the public supports US economic assistance to fund mitigation projects in developing countries. Gaps between the US public and US leaders are evident, with the public exhibiting more concern and more support for new policies. The level of US public concern is nearly as high as it is among European publics, where there is also opposition to current US policy.
Topic:: Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe

2636. The Deployment of Multinational Military Formations: Taking Political Institutions into Account

Author:: Marc Houben and Dirk Peters
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Multinational military formations exist in many forms, shapes and colours. Their size varies; their raison d'être varies; the type of military units involved varies; and the countries involved vary. In most cases governments take into consideration the economic, militarytechnical and operational arguments for participation in a multinational formation. They participate because it will save them money for example, or it enables them to maintain a critical capability, such as F-16 fighter planes. States thus usually take care to shape the units in a way that contributions complement each in technical terms and that the whole unit pays off in economic terms. Not often, however, is the compatibility of the political systems of the participating countries taken into account when a multinational unit is formed. Our contention is that more attention should be paid to the political/institutional compatibility of participating states when creating multinational units. Some political systems are more compatible than others and this fact has consequences for the effectiveness of jointly owned multinational units.
Topic:: Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe

2637. Caucasus Revisited

Author:: Michael Emerson
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Three years ago, after the Kosovo war and the launch of the Stability Pact for South East Europe, there was a spasm of interest in the idea of a stability pact for the Caucasus. However nothing came of this, since neither the region's leaders nor the international community were willing or able to do anything of substance, although a comprehensive proposal had been published by CEPS as a 'track 2' initiative. As a result, the de facto secessions of Abkhazia and Nagorno Karabakh have become more deeply entrenched, but only with the protection of Russia and Armenia, respectively, with which these entities have become increasingly integrated de facto. Since conventional diplomacy in the Caucasus under UN or OSCE auspices has failed to deliver solutions over a whole decade, we take a wider look here at the kind of solutions that may emerge for these so-called frozen conflicts of the European periphery. New developments external to the region are coming from the EU and the US: the widening of the Europeanisation process on the one hand, and the 'democratic imperialism' or Pax Americana coming out of Washington since 11 September 2001 and now the Iraq war. We explore below how these developments may affect the prospects for the Caucasus.
Topic:: Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe

2638. Optimizing the Mechanism for 'Enhanced Cooperation' within the EU: Recomendations for the Constitutional Treaty

Author:: Eric Philippart
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Policy development in the EU is often impeded by member states being either unwilling or unable to participate. One way to overcome that problem is to resort to flexible approaches accommodating diversity. Convinced that an enlarged Union would require more flexibility, the current member states agreed in 1997 to introduce a new safety valve in the treaties, named 'enhanced cooperation'. Thanks to that mechanism, a group of member states may be authorised to use the EU framework to further their cooperation or integration in policy areas under EU competence whenever it appears impossible to do so with all of the member states.
Topic:: Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe

2639. Reforming the Composition of the ECB Governing Council in View of Enlargement: An Opportunity Missed!

Author:: Daniel Gros
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: It is widely accepted that enlargement requires reform of the highest decision-making bodies of the European Central Bank (ECB). In particular, there are concerns that the Governing Council, which is composed of the six-member Executive Board of the ECB plus the governors of the participating national central banks (NCBs), will grow too large to work efficiently. In the absence of reform, it could end up having over 30 members - resembling more a mini-parliament than a decision-making body that has to manage a global currency in fast-moving financial markets. Moreover, the accession of a number of small countries is often perceived as a threat to the "power balance" in the Governing Council.
Topic:: Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe

2640. Constitutionalising the Open Method of Coordination - What Should the Convention Propose?

Author:: Gráinne De Búrca and Jonathan Zeitlin
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Within the Convention process, the final reports of no less than four separate working groups - those on Simplification, Complementary Competences, Economic Governance and Social Europe - have come out in favour of including the 'Open Method of Coordination' (OMC) within the Constitutional Treaty. The relevant sections of these reports are attached in an annex.
Topic:: Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe

2641. A Public Stability Pact for Public Debt?

Author:: Daniel Gros
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: There is an urgent need to link the excessive deficit procedure with the issue of sustainability and hence the evolution of public debt. This note shows that there exists a simple way to introduce the evolution of public debt in the Stability Pact, which so far has focused exclusively on deficits. The link starts from the Maastricht criterion for participation in EMU concerning public debt and its reference value of 60% of GDP. The Maastricht criterion on public debt stipulates that if public debt exceeds 60% of GDP, it must be 'sufficiently diminishing and approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace''.This note provides a numerical rule for evaluating whether public debt is indeed diminishing 'at a satisfactory pace'. This numerical rule is in accordance with the reference values in the Treaty and could be used as the basis for an 'excessive debt procedure'.
Topic:: Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe

2642. Georgia: What Now?

Publication Date:: 12-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Georgia's political crisis, which climaxed in the forced resignation of President Eduard Shevardnadze on 23 November 2003, is not over yet and could still lead to violence and the country's disintegration. Georgia, in other words, is still pre-conflict, not post- conflict, and exceptional international action is required to contain the potential for chaos. Washington, which quietly supported what U.S. media called the “Rose Revolution”, has promised aid for organisation of the presidential election on 4 January 2004, as has the European Union; other donors should follow suit, and the international community should maintain this support through the equally important and potentially more contentious legislative elections in the spring.
Topic:: Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Washington, and Georgia

2643. Indonesia Backgrounder: A Guide to the 2004 Elections

Publication Date:: 12-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Indonesia faces at least two and probably three national elections in 2004, including a presidential vote, but they are unlikely to bring fundamental change. Citizens are increasingly disillusioned with the half-decade of democracy and “money politics” they have experienced since the collapse of Soeharto's authoritarian New Order.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

2644. Afghanistan: The Constitutional Loya Jirga

Publication Date:: 12-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: When delegates to Afghanistan's Constitutional Loya Jirga assemble in Kabul on 13 December 2003, they will begin debating and ultimately deciding upon a draft document that is intended to establish a strong presidency while accommodating the other dominant figures at the country's centre. It is a constitution, however, that for the most part would fail to provide meaningful democratic governance, including power-sharing, a system of checks and balances, or mechanisms for increasing the representation of ethnic, regional and other minority groups. The manner in which the draft has been prepared and publicised, as well as its content, raise serious questions about whether it can become the first constitution in Afghanistan's history to command genuinely deep popular support and, therefore, contribute to national stability.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Kabul

2645. Kashmir: The View From Islamabad

Publication Date:: 12-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: More than five decades after independence, Pakistan is no closer to a resolution with India of the dispute over Kashmir. Pakistan and India have fought three wars, two of them over the status of Kashmir. They have been on the brink of war on several other occasions, including in Siachen in 1987 and in Kargil in 1999. From December 2001 to October 2002, the nuclear-armed protagonists came close to war once again when India mobilised along its international border with Pakistan following the terrorist attack on the parliament in New Delhi. Intense diplomatic and political pressure by the U.S., in coordination with other G-8 countries, averted what could have been a catastrophic clash.
Topic:: Security, Government, Regional Cooperation, and War
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, Kashmir, New Delhi, and Islamabad

2646. Kashmir: The View From New Delhi

Publication Date:: 12-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: For half a century Kashmir has been the major issue of contention between India and Pakistan. In India's view, the conflict in the state of Jammu and Kashmir constitutes a major internal security threat and is driven by Pakistani interference. No solution is possible, according to the Indian leadership, until Pakistan ceases its support for militants there.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, Kashmir, and New Delhi

2647. Kashmir: Learning from the Past

Publication Date:: 12-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: While its roots predate Indian and Pakistani independence, the Kashmir conflict's current directions can best be understood in the light of the nationalism and state building that followed the end of British colonial rule. Domestic factors, including the imperatives of regime legitimacy and consolidation, remain important influences in both countries.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

2648. Iraq's Constitutional Challenge

Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: As attacks against the occupying forces and suicide bombs against civilian targets intensify, the need for a new political formula that will increase the powers, legitimacy and representative quality of Iraqi governing institutions is becoming more urgent than ever. The response to date, reflected in United Nations Security Council Resolution 1511, has been to tie the transfer of the exercise of sovereignty to the drafting of an Iraqi constitution, its adoption in a referendum and ensuing national elections.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Politics, Religion, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Iraq, Arabia, and United Nations

2649. Building Bridges In Mostar

Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Making another attempt to unite the divided city of Mostar has become, unexpectedly but appropriately, a very high international priority in Bosnia " Herzegovina (BiH) in 2003. By late summer, it had come to be ranked by High Representative Paddy Ashdown among his four major projects for structural reform. In each case, the High Representative appointed a foreign chairman to lead commissions composed of domestic representatives and charged with finding statebuilding solutions in the symbolically or substantively important realms of defence, intelligence, indirect taxation - and Mostar. All aim to unify divided and dysfunctional institutions. The first three commissions, which have already reported and whose draft legislation is proceeding through the various parliaments, have also sought to empower the state over the entities and their respective national establishments.
Topic:: Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

2650. Nepal: Back to the Gun

Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: With the collapse of the ceasefire and peace talks between government and Maoist insurgents, Nepal appears to be in for months more of bloody fighting. There are prospects for eventual resumption of negotiations since neither side can realistically expect a military victory, and there are indications of what a diplomatic compromise might look like. However, the international community needs to urge all sides toward compromise and press the government to restore democracy, bring the political parties back into the picture and control the army's tendency to commit serious abuses when conducting operations. Similarly, the Maoists should discontinue targeted assassinations, bombing and widespread extortion.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Government, Regional Cooperation, and War
Political Geography:: South Asia and Nepal

2651. Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program

Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The announcement on 21 October 2003 of an agreement between Iran on the one hand and Britain, France and Germany on the other, is an important and welcome step in resolving the controversy surrounding Tehran's nuclear program. But it would be wrong to assume that it ends it. The challenge now is to use the breathing space provided by the agreement to tackle the questions – about its implementation, the future of Iran's uranium enrichment activities and Iran's own security concerns – that, for the time being, it has deferred.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Government, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:: Britain, Iran, France, Arabia, and Germany

2652. Macedonia: No Room for Complacency

Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Recent events require that policymakers revise substantially the conventional assessment that Macedonia is the foremost political “success story” of the Balkans. In fact, it is an underperforming post-conflict country still very much at risk, unable to tackle – operationally or politically -- its security challenges without upsetting an uncertain ethnic balance. Clear-eyed analysis of the dynamics driving unrest, from criminality and weak policing to an equally weak economy and corruption, is needed if a country that narrowly avoided war in 2001 is to secure long-term stability. Specifically, Macedonia cannot yet safely do without the presence of an international security force.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Macedonia

2653. Peacebuilding in Afghanistan

Publication Date:: 09-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Tackling conflict and providing security in Afghanistan requires a greater effort to deal with local disputes that frequently flare into violence and lead to wider problems. Although these attract less attention than the threat from the resurgent Taliban, they are important as they produce an environment of insecurity which destroys all quality of life for ordinary civilians and undermines the legitimacy of the Afghan Transitional Administration in Kabul. Local commanders often exploit these disputes to consolidate their positions, further weakening the authority of the central government.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Development, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Kabul

2654. Serbian Reform Stails Again

Publication Date:: 07-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The reformist zeal displayed by the Serbian government following the 12 March 2003 assassination of Premier Zoran Djindjic appears to have dissipated. A number of important and positive steps were taken while the shock of that political murder was still fresh. Increasingly, however, their impact is being counterbalanced by actions that bring into question the government's ability to press decisive political and economic reforms home so as to achieve the goal of integration with wider European institutions.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Serbia

2655. Indonesia: Managing Decentralisation and Conflict in South Sulawesi

Publication Date:: 07-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: What has been the impact of Indonesia's radical decentralisation program, launched on 1 January 2001, on conflict prevention and management? This case study of the district of Luwu in South Sulawesi finds results that have thus far been positive. But it remains an open question whether these results are sustainable – and whether Luwu's success is transferable to other parts of the country.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Indonesia

2656. Central Asia: Islam and the State

Publication Date:: 07-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: To avoid future instability, Central Asian states need to re-examine their policies towards Islam and step back from reliance on repression. Seventy years of Soviet rule in Central Asia did not crush Islam but it had a profound effect in secularising society and political elites. Nevertheless, after independence there was a surge of interest in Islam, including the emergence of political Islamist groups seeking to challenge the secular nature of these new states. The heavy-handed repression of early manifestations of political Islam led to confrontation, violence, and the appearance of extremist and terrorist groups.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Central Asia

2657. Algeria: Unrest and Impasse in Kabylia

Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In late April 2001, lethal provocations by elements of Algeria's National Gendarmerie triggered protracted and deadly rioting in Kabylia. That the unrest from Kabylia's Black Spring continues to this day reflects the political system's nation-wide failure to adopt reforms that address its deficit of democratic representation. Neither the regime, nor the Kabyle political parties nor the so-called "Coordinations" that lead the protest movement in the region has to date proposed a serious formula for ending the impasse. The recent invitation by the new head of the government, Ahmed Ouyahia, to the protest movement to engage in dialogue over its platform is a welcome, if belated, development. But more will be needed to enable the Algerian polity to resolve what is much more a national problem than the local or ethnic disturbance it is often mistakenly portrayed as.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, Algeria, and North Africa

2658. Baghdad: A Race Against the Clock

Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Eight weeks after victoriously entering Baghdad, American forces are in a race against the clock. If they are unable to restore both personal security and public services and establish a better rapport with Iraqis before the blistering heat of summer sets in, there is a genuine risk that serious trouble will break out. That would make it difficult for genuine political reforms to take hold, and the political liberation from the Saddam Hussein dictatorship would then become for a majority of the country's citizens a true foreign occupation. With all eyes in the Middle East focused on Iraq, the coming weeks and months will be critical for shaping regional perceptions of the U.S. as well.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, Arabia, and Arab Countries

2659. Bosnia's Brcko: Getting In, Getting On and Getting Out

Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: It is time to consider the future of Brcko District. In particular, it is time to chart an exit strategy for the supervisory regime that will serve both to preserve and extend its and the people of Brcko's accomplishments.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Bosnia, and Eastern Europe

2660. Taiwan Strait I: What's Left of 'One China'?

Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In the last decade, Taiwan has moved slowly but surely away from its commitment to the idea of 'one China', the proposition, long agreed on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, that Taiwan and the mainland are parts of one country. This has led to steadily mounting tension between Taiwan and China, for both of whom the issue goes to the heart of their sense of identity. While the prospect of an outbreak of war across the Strait remains distant, action is needed by all relevant parties to contain and reverse the situation.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

2661. Kosovo's Ethnic Dilemma: The Need For A Civic Contract

Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: A simple but effective formula exists for peace in diverse societies. It consists of a civic contract: the government recognises and supports special rights for minorities, and minorities acknowledge the authority of the government. No elements of such a contract currently exist in Kosovo. The Albanians remain reluctant to support enhanced rights for the Serb minority, and the Serb community does not recognise the authority of Kosovo's institutions. Moreover, Kosovo is not a state and the future status of the province remains unresolved. After four years of United Nations authority in Kosovo, the foundation of this civic contract and of sustainable peace has not been laid.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

2662. Myanmar Backgrounder: Ethnic Minority

Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Myanmar is one of the ethnically most diverse countries in the world and throughout its existence as an independent state has experienced a complex set of conflicts between the central government and ethnic minority groups seeking autonomy. While the world's attention for the past decade has focused on the struggle between the military government and the political opposition over national power, these underlying conflicts perhaps represent a more fundamental and intractable obstacle to peace, development and democracy.
Topic:: Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:: Central Asia

2663. A Marriage Of Inconvenience: Montenegro 2003

Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: It is time for new policies and new approaches on Montenegro. International engagement with that republic in recent years has brought significant positive results. It bolstered the pro-Western government of Djukanovic when it faced the threat from Milosevic. It has helped promote reforms that have set Montenegro on the way to becoming a modern democracy, with a market economy and an independent, effective criminal justice system. However, efforts to promote regional stability have been hampered by an unnecessary obsession with keeping Montenegro and Serbia in a single state. The international community's overriding interest in the region should be to find stable, long-term solutions. Cobbling together interim solutions that lack legitimacy for those who must implement them and that are unlikely, therefore, to be functional in practice, is not the way to build stability.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and Eastern Europe

2664. Afghanistan: Women and Reconstruction

Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The establishment of an Interim Administration for Afghanistan during the Bonn talks in December 2001 was heralded as offering Afghan women a chance to claim their place in public life and participate in the country's development after systemic exclusion under the Taliban. Creation of a Ministry of Women's Affairs, the commitment of substantial donor assistance to programs targeting women, and, most critically, the return of women to universities, schools, and government offices all portended a new day.
Topic:: Development, Gender Issues, and Government
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban

2665. Red Alert In Jordan: Recurrent Unrest In Maan

Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In successive incidents over eight days in November 2002, the city of Maan in the south of Jordan was the scene of intense armed clashes between security forces and elements of the Maani population. What began as a routine police operation rapidly escalated into incidents in which thousands of police, soldiers, and special forces fought militants in and around the town before subduing them. The clashes left six dead, many more wounded, over 150 arrested for questioning or prosecution, and property destroyed. As of early February 2003, over 45 people remained in custody and several others were still being sought.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, and Government
Political Geography:: Arabia and Jordan

2666. Aceh: A Fragile Peace

Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 9 December 2002, an agreement on cessation of hostilities in Aceh was concluded in Geneva, bringing hope that an end to the 26-year-old conflict between Indonesian government forces and guerrillas of the pro-independence Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka or GAM) was in sight. Since then there have been many positive developments, most strikingly, a dramatic drop in the level of violence.
Topic:: Development and Government
Political Geography:: Geneva, United States, Central Asia, and Indonesia

2667. Uzbekistan's Reform Program: Illusion or Reality?

Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Since October 2001, Uzbekistan has been a key ally of the U.S. in the military campaign in Afghanistan. A U.S. base has been established and a far-reaching Agreement on Strategic Partnership was signed in March 2002. Uzbekistan, however, sits uncomfortably in a campaign known as “Enduring Freedom.” It is one of the most authoritarian of the post-Soviet states, with a poor record on human rights and an economy that still owes much more to Soviet central planning than the market.
Topic:: Development and Government
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, and Uzbekistan

2668. Afghanistan: Judicial Reform and Transitional Justice

Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Afghanistan's legal system has collapsed. Never strong to begin with, it has been nearly destroyed by 23 years of conflict and misrule. There are few trained lawyers, little physical infrastructure and no complete record of the country's laws. Under successive regimes, laws have been administered for mostly political ends with few protections of the rights of individuals to a fair trial. Although the country has signed up to most international agreements on human rights, abuses have been widespread, and military commanders have enjoyed impunity.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Central Asia

2669. The Politics of Center-Periphery Relations in Afghanistan

Author:: Barnett Rubin and Helena Malikyar
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: The relationship of the central government of Afghanistan to the other units of government is in many ways a proxy for the relationship of state to society. It would not be so if the state were more institutionalized and in control of the territory and population of the country. But the current situation, where the direct administrative control of the government is largely limited to the capital city and environs, and in which the government relies on international support (“foreign” support to its opponents) to exercise that control, has precedents in other eras of Afghan history.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Asia

2670. Next Move in Steel: Revocation or Retaliation?

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Ben Goodrich
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In May 2003, the World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute panel ruled that US steel safeguards imposed in March 2002 are illegal. The WTO Appellate Body is all but certain to confirm the panel's judgment, probably by December 2003. Then the Bush administration will face an important choice. It can keep the safeguards in place, pleasing steel producers and important constituencies in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. However, doing so would further anger steel users, who have probably lost more business and jobs as a direct consequence of the safeguards than steel producers have gained. Maintaining the safeguards would also send a signal to the world's trading nations that the United States is not prepared to endure the political cost of eliminating steel protection. Furthermore, the administration would run the risk that, in the middle of a presidential election season, foreign countries will exercise their rights under the WTO to retaliate.
Topic:: Government and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia

2671. Rules Against Earnings Stripping: Wrong Answer to Corporate Inversions

Author:: Gary Hufbauer and Ariel Assa
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The tax-driven expatriation of US corporations is a troubling phenomenon. In a “corporate inversion,” a new foreign corporation, typically located in a low-tax or no-tax country, replaces the existing US parent corporation of a multinational enterprise (MNE). The US corporation then becomes a subsidiary of the new foreign parent. Since the US tax treatment of an MNE operating in the United States is significantly less favorable when the top-tier parent corporation is a domestic rather than a foreign corporation, the inversion transaction averts a substantial amount of US tax. Inversions have attracted adverse attention from tax specialists, media, the US Treasury Department, and Congress. In the wake of September 11, it seemed downright unpatriotic for US firms to invert as a way of skimping on their tax payments.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

2672. Steel Policy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Author:: Gary C. Hufbauer and Ben Goodrich
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: While the US steel industry has been in distress for decades, the “steel crisis” of 1999-2001 was particularly acute. More than 30 steel producing and steel processing firms fell into bankruptcy between 1997 and 2001, and most of the failures occurred after President Bush took office. During his presidential campaign, Bush promised steelworkers that he would not neglect them. As the crisis worsened, the steel industry and the United Steel Workers of America (USWA) pressed the Bush administration to make good on its campaign promise.
Topic:: Government, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and America

2673. Survival of the Best Fit: Exposure to Low-Wage Countries and the (Uneven) Growth of US Manufacturing Plants

Author:: J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, and Peter K. Schott
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper examines the role of international trade in the reallocation of U.S. manufacturing activity within and across industries from 1977 to 1997. It introduces a new measure of industry exposure to international trade, motivated by the Heckscher-Ohlin model, which focuses on where imports originate rather than their overall level. Results demonstrate that plant survival as well as output and employment growth are negatively associated with the share of industry imports sourced from the world's lowest-wage countries. Within industries, activity is reallocated towards capital-intensive plants. Plants are also more likely to alter their product mix (i.e. switch industries) in response to trade with low-wage countries. Plants altering their product mix switch to industries that are more capital-and skill-intensive.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

2674. Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms, and Industry Dynamics

Author:: J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, and Peter K. Schott
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper examines the response of industries and firms to changes in trade costs. Several new firm-level models of international trade with heterogeneous firms predict that industry productivity will rise as trade costs fall due to the reallocation of activity across plants within an industry. Using disaggregated U.S. import data, we create a new measure of trade costs over time and industries. As the models predict, productivity growth is faster in industries with falling trade costs. We also find evidence supporting the major hypotheses of the heterogenous- firm models. Plants in industries with falling trade costs are more likely to die or become exporters. Existing exporters increase their shipments abroad. The results do not apply equally across all sectors but are strongest for industries most likely to be producing horizontally-differentiated tradeable goods.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

2675. Improving The Sovereign Debt Restructuring Process

Author:: Brad Setser and Nouriel Roubini
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The recent debate on reforming the international financial system has focused on the need to improve the sovereign debt restructuring process, and in particular on steps that could limit the risk that litigation could disrupt or delay a sovereign debt restructuring. This debate increasingly has focused on the debt restructuring process in those cases where debt reduction is needed to produce a sustainable debt profile. Less attention has been given to those cases where a sovereign lacks the reserves needed to cover its near-term obligations and, absent international support, has a clear need for debt rescheduling to push out near-term maturities.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

2676. Executive Leadership and the Role of “Veto Players” in the United States and Germany

Author:: Ludger Helms
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: In recent comparative works on the constitutional structures of contemporary liberal democracies, the United States and Germany have been grouped together as examples of democratic systems with an exceptionally high degree of “institutional pluralism”. In other typologies both countries have even been classified as “semisovereign democracies”. Whereas such classifications are of some use, especially in the field of public policy research, they fail to pay reasonable attention to the fundamental difference between parliamentary and presidential government that dominated the older literature on comparative political systems. As the comparative assessments offered in this paper suggest, the difference between parliamentary government and presidential government does not only constitute very different conditions of executive leadership in the core executive territory and at the level of executive-legislative relations, but has also a strong impact on the role and performance of the various “veto players” that characterize the political systems of the United States and Germany, and which are at the center of this paper.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Germany

2677. European Corporate Governance Reform and the German Party Paradox

Author:: Martin Höpner
Publication Date:: 08-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: This paper addresses the current discussion on links between party politics and production regimes. Why do German Social Democrats opt for more corporate governance liberalization than the CDU although, in terms of the distributional outcomes of such reforms, one would expect the situation to be reversed? I divide my analysis into three stages. First, I use the European Parliament's crucial vote on the European takeover directive in July 2001 as a test case to show that the left-right dimension does indeed matter in corporate governance reform, beside cross-class and cross-party nation-based interests. In a second step, by analyzing the party positions in the main German corporate governance reforms in the 1990s, I show that the SPD and the CDU behave “paradoxically” in the sense that the SPD favored more corporate governance liberalization than the CDU, which protected the institutions of “Rhenish,” “organized” capitalism. This constellation occurred in the discussions on company disclosure, management accountability, the power of banks, network dissolution, and takeover regulation. Third, I offer two explanations for this paradoxical party behavior. The first explanation concerns the historical conversion of ideas. I show that trade unions and Social Democrats favored a high degree of capital organization in the Weimar Republic, but this ideological position was driven in new directions at two watersheds: one in the late 1940s, the other in the late 1950s. My second explanation lies in the importance of conflicts over managerial control, in which both employees and minority shareholders oppose managers, and in which increased shareholder power strengthens the position of works councils.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

2678. Portugese Ministers, 1851-1999: Social Background and Paths to Power

Author:: Pedro Tavares de Almeida and António Costa Pinto
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of regime changes in the composition and patterns of recruitment of the Portuguese ministerial elite throughout the last 150 years. The 'out-of-type', violent nature of most regime transformations accounts for the purges in and the extensive replacements of the political personnel, namely of the uppermost officeholders. In the case of Cabinet members, such discontinuities did not imply, however, radical changes in their social profile. Although there were some significant variations, a series of salient characteristics have persisted over time. The typical Portuguese minister is a male in his midforties, of middle-class origin and predominantly urban-born, highly educated and with a state servant background. The two main occupational contingents have been university professors - except for the First Republic (1910-26) - and the military, the latter having only recently been eclipsed with the consolidation of contemporary democracy. As regards career pathways, the most striking feature is the secular trend for the declining role of parliamentary experience, which the democratic regime did not clearly reverse. In this period, a technocratic background rather than political experience has been indeed the privileged credential for a significant proportion of ministers.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

2679. Ministerial Elites in Greece, 1843-2001: A Synthesis of Old Sources and New Data

Author:: Dimitri A. Sotiropoulos and Dimitris Bourikos
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: The study of Greek political elites used to be concentrated on parliamentary deputies. Ministerial elites were rarely studied. In this paper, we take a long-term view of the Greek ministerial elites, studying their socio-political profile from the mid-nineteenth century to the present. We find that this profile does not change so much with regime change, but instead follows political developments at certain time points within specific regime periods. At these points, new political leaders were ushered into power. Examples were Eleftherios Venizelos in 1911 and Andreas Papandreou in 1981. Changes in personnel were not accompanied by changes in geographical origin or professional outlook, which took much longer to effect. In the nineteenth century mainly landowners and state officials dominated cabinets. After the beginning of the twentieth century, however, liberal professions, particularly lawyers, were overrepresented among ministers. This pattern continued throughout the twentieth century. Both the predominance of lawyers and the changes in the profile of ministers over time are attributed to the type of state built in modern Greece, a clientelist, overcentralized and legalistic state which only recently has started its transformation, requiring a different, more modern type of politician.
Topic:: Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

2680. The Defense Monitor: Little Room in Politics for the Facts of the Matter

Author:: Philip E. Coyle, Rachel Stohl, Winslow Wheeler, Theresa Hitchens, Victoria Garcia, Colin Robinson, Krista Nelson, and Jeffrey Lewis
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Defense Information
Abstract:: Few things are more routinely abused than facts when people in government — any party, any branch — set out to make a decision. I've been reminded of this truth watching the current administration parry revelations that it manipulated “facts” about weapons of mass destruction as a pretext for the war against Iraq that Congress authorized a year ago this past week. But I'd learned it the hard way much earlier. During a 31-year career as an evaluator for the General Accounting Office and a staffer for four different U.S. senators from both parties, I spent a lot of time trying to use facts to influence decisions made by the U.S. government. The facts took a beating all too often.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: United States and Iraq

2681. International Law for an Uncertain Environment

Author:: Barbara Koremenos
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:: For the past twenty years, the theoretical literature on international cooperation has focused on overarching questions about whether cooperation is possible and how important it is. The seminal contributions of the 1980s increased our theoretical understanding of the possibility of cooperation. Yet we know empirically that cooperation is pervasive. Hundreds of multilateral agreements are signed each year. If we count bilateral agreements as well, the number jumps to thousands. This is not to say that cooperation is easy. In fact, given the challenges of successful cooperation, it is time for the theoretical literature to focus not on whether cooperation can occur at all, but on more focused questions regarding how the actual institutions of cooperation work and through what means they have their impact on state behavior.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Government, International Cooperation, and International Law

2682. The Preventive Use of Force: A Cosmopolitan Institutional Proposal

Author:: Allen Buchanan and Robert Keohane
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:: Since 9/11/2001 fears of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction have fueled a vigorous world-wide debate about the use of preventive force. “Preventive force” may be defined as the initiation of military action in anticipation of harmful actions that are neither presently occurring nor imminent.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Government, and Politics

2683. Democratic Politics in Latin America: New Debates and Research Frontiers

Author:: Gerardo Munck
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:: This assessment of research on contemporary democratic politics in Latin America is organized around the distinction between institutional and alternative approaches. Initially it considers institutionalism on its own terms and, through an assessment of the debate about the institutional causes of gridlock, draws attention to key strengths of this literature. Thereafter, some of the limitations of an institutional approach are addressed and the possibility of combining insights developed from institutional and alternative theoretical perspectives is emphasized. The suggested terms of integration, however, are not symmetric. With regard to causal theorizing, the need for institutionalists to borrow ideas, especially from the broader literature on political regimes, is underlined. With regard to theorizing outcomes, in contrast, the need for students of the quality of democracy to incorporate contributions made by institutionalists is highlighted. Throughout, various pointed suggestions to advance research are offered.
Topic:: Democratization and Government
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and North America

2684. Picking Up the Pieces: Comparing the Social Impact of Finacial Crisis in Mexico and Argentina

Author:: Manuel Pastor and Carol Wise
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:: After a committed process of macroeconomic stabilization that began during the mid-1980s in most of Latin America, many observers began to speak of the need for a “second generation” of reforms that could more firmly establish the bases for economic growth and correct for longstanding distributional inequities. By the mid-1990s serious reformers like Argentina and Mexico seemed to be on the cusp of tackling this distributional backlog by launching so-called second phase market reforms meant to correct for earlier shortcomings in the social realm (Naím 1995; Pastor and Wise 1999). However, in both cases, financial crises erupted: Mexico's crash of December 1994, which saw a forty percent devaluation of the peso and a massive outflow of portfolio capital; and, more recently, Argentina's 2002 meltdown, which while simmering since the Brazilian devaluation of 1999, finally caused the country's commitment to a fixed exchange rate to be abandoned.
Topic:: Economics and Government
Political Geography:: Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

2685. Authentication Report

Author:: James A. Lewis
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: How does a machine know you are who you say you are and what you are allowed to do? A car 'knows' you are authorized to drive it when you insert a metal key. An automatic teller knows who you are and how much is in your account when you insert a magnetic card and enter a Personal Identification Number. The machine isn't actually confirming your identity; it is accepting a token issued to you by someone else, who may have taken steps to confirm at the time of issuance that you are who you say you are.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Science and Technology

2686. The Spring 2002 Term of the Mexican Congress

Author:: Jeffrey A. Weldon
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The spring session of the second year of the 58th Legislature in Mexico, in comparison with most recent years, was more productive than average. Although there were a few major negative incidents, the strained relationship between the executive and legislative branches did not lead to complete paralysis on executive legislation.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: United States, Latin America, Central America, and Mexico

2687. Cyber Attacks: Missing in Action

Author:: James A. Lewis
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The first warnings of an “electronic Pearl Harbor” appeared in 1995. 1 They have appeared regularly since then. Before the conflict with Iraq that began in March 2003, there was speculation that the U.S. would experience cyber attacks in retaliation. Since the onset of the war, however, there have been no reported attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure or affected U.S. military operations in Iraq. Nor have there been any reports of cyber attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure or affected U.S. military operations since 1996.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and Iraq

2688. CERI: Public Administrations and Modes of Government in the Face of Europeanization: A Comparison between Southern Europe and Eastern Europe

Author:: Béatrice Hibou and François Bafoil
Publication Date:: 12-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: Enlargement today is a priority on the European agenda. Examining Portugal and Greece from a comparative perspective with respect to Poland, this Study analyzes the original and specific paths each of these national configurations have taken as regards administrative and institutional changes, particularly through the regional dimension, policy reorientations and modes of government. Given the large body of acquis communautaire that must be integrated, the nature of Commission involvement and the highly regulatory nature of European directives, this dimension emerges as the most significant in the process of Europeanization: public administration acts as a filter in this dynamic and nation-states are paradoxically strengthened by European integration. This comparison is an opportunity to underscore the importance of innovations and the singularity of modes of government, suggesting that certain arrangements put into practice in cohesion countries may provide sources of inspiration for the new entrants, which are faced with similar problems of administrative competence, bureaucratic blockages and political and state legacies that are remote from the European model of public administration, civil service organization and rules. With the effect of European constraints, a threefold dynamic is at work: a dynamic of delegation, or privatization, through the creation of agencies, offices and institutes, a dynamic of politicized (re)centralization, and a dynamic of political, institutional and social innovation. Thus components of these models are constantly borrowed and reshaped, hybrid constructions are formed and configurations take shape that are no less European than what can be found in the "heart" of Europe.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Europe

2689. CERI: Municipalities in South Africa: A Shifting-Pole Autonomisation

Author:: Ivan Crouzel
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: In South Africa, the transition negotiated in order to build a post-apartheid political order has brought about a deep-seated transformation of the state. A central issue of this radical reform had to do with the territorial arrangement of the new state. Constitutional negotiations resulted in a hybrid federal type of system that distinctly reinforced the power of local government, particularly to counterbalance that of the nine provinces. At the same time, a smoother form of intergovernmental relations was introduced with the concept of "cooperative government." In contrast to the centralized system that held sway under apartheid, local government has been strengthened by a new constitutional status, which in particular guarantees an "equitable share" of the national revenue. It also ensures that municipalities are represented nationally through intergovernmental structures involving the participation of local governments.
Topic:: Development, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

2690. Workshop on Security Sector Governance in Africa

Author:: Anicia Lala and Riefqi Muna
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
Abstract:: Security Sector Governance (SSG) in Africa was the theme of a workshop that took place from the 24-26 November, 2003, at Elmina, Ghana, under the auspices of Africa Dialogue and Security Research (ASDR), with the support of the Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform (GFN-SSR) and jointly funded by the UK Government (Africa Conflict Prevention Pool) and the Special Initiative for Africa from the Ford Foundation. Participation and speakers included academics as well as practitioners from both NGOs and Government. Also in attendance were representatives of various security sector areas, namely defence, police and intelligence from a range of regions, including Southern, East and West Africa, Europe and North America. The agenda covered a multitude of subjects within the governance theme, rendering the programme valuable, instructive and enriching the debates. Among the subjects were International and Regional Perspectives on Security Sector Governance, Governance of Police and Policing, Governance of Intelligence and Governance of the Armed Forces.
Topic:: Security, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Africa, America, Europe, and Ghana

2691. Security Sector Reform Policy Brief

Author:: Hilary Benn, Baroness Symons, and Adam Ingram
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
Abstract:: With the end of the Cold War, a new understanding of the concept of peace and security has emerged. A broader focus on the nature of sustainable peace and its building-blocks, such as social and economic development, good governance and democratisation, the rule of law and respect for human rights, is supplementing the traditional concept of collective security. Security is necessary for people to go about their lives without fear or harassment and it is the responsibility of the state to provide this security. Security sector reform (SSR) describes the process for developing professional and effective security structures that will allow citizens to live their lives in safety.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, and Government
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

2692. Security Sector Reform in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:: Owen Greene
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
Abstract:: The paper aims to outline some key issues and processes relating to security sector reform in Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper defines SSR in this regional context and then identifies and discusses some of the key issues and priorities for SSR in Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper then sketches the history of international assistance to promote SSR, in the three subregions: South America, Central America and the Caribbean. The paper ends with some short conclusions.
Topic:: Security and Government
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

2693. Balance of Power, Democracy and Foreign Policy in South America's Southern Cone

Author:: Farid Kahhat
Publication Date:: 12-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: The purpose of this paper is to assess the merits of two contending theories (balance of power and democratic peace) on the relationship between regime type (e.g., democratic or authoritarian) and foreign policy orientation (i.e., relative proneness towards conflict and cooperation) for the case of South America's Southern Cone between 1970 and 1995. I will argue that a balance of power perspective does not provide a persuasive explanation of changing patterns of inter-state conflict and cooperation within this region during the period under scrutiny. In turn, I will suggest that many attempts to test democratic peace theory beyond the industrialized democracies in the post-war era may be conceptually flawed.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: South America

2694. Policy Reform in the Mexican Telecommunications Sector

Author:: Miguel Ángel Valverde
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: In June 1990, Presidents George Bush and Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari announced their intention to begin negotiating a free trade agreement. Canada joined the negotiations the following August. The proposed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) provoked an intense lobbying campaign in the U.S. Congress, in what became a major political battle for its congressional approval.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa, Canada, Central America, and Mexico

2695. The World in their Minds. Geopolitical Thought and Inter-State Conflict in South America's Southern Cone

Author:: Farid Kahhat
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: The overall topic of this paper is the relationship between regime type (e g, democratic or authoritarian) and foreign policy orientation (i.e., relative proneness towards conflict and cooperation) for South America's Southern Cone from the 1970s into the 1990s. its specific purpose is to offer an explanation of the relationship between regime type and foreign policy orientation in the 1970s. I will argue that, unlike what we would expect from a balance of power perspective, political regime is indeed crucial to understanding foreign policy orientation in the case under scrutiny. But I will suggest that changes in foreign policy orientation within the region in the last decade or so might owe more to the vanishing of authoritarian regimes than to the return of democratically elected leaders. However, I will not make universal claims about authoritarian regimes. I suggest, rather, that the pervasive influence that a geopolitically driven discourse of international politics had over the military establishments within the region is crucial to understand the relative conflict proneness of the authoritarian regimes that prevailed during the 1970's.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Africa and South America

2696. Between Grassroots and Governments: Civil Society Experiences with the PRSPs

Author:: Susanne Possing
Publication Date:: 09-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The report focuses on civil society experience with locally identified priorities for poverty eradication, an area little examined and less discussed in the international debate on PRSP to date.In the three N/S PRSP Programme countries, Honduras, Nicaragua and Zambia, civil society organisations have been involved in efforts to identify national as well as local priorities for poverty eradication. Taking the point of departure in involvement of CS with PRSP planning and monitoring at both levels, the paper presents a range of challenges and dilemmas for civil society in its efforts to combat poverty. Special attention is given to civil society initiatives and response to PRSP in provinces, districts and communities.
Topic:: Agriculture, Civil Society, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Nicaragua, Honduras, and Zambia

2697. Conversion at Stepnogorsk: What the Future Holds for Former Bioweapons Facilities

Author:: Sonia Ben Ouagrham and Kathleen M. Vogel
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
Abstract:: This study examines the ongoing efforts to convert a former biological weapons (BW) facility in Stepnogorsk, Kazakhstan. The facility, known in the Soviet period as the Stepnogorsk Scientific and Experimental Production Base (SNOPB), was the USSR's largest mobilization facility dedicated to the production and weaponization of anthrax bacteria. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Kazakh government has demonstrated its commitment to nonproliferation and international security by opening and providing full transparency into the facility. The Kazakh government has issued mandates for a number of restructuring changes and conversion efforts at the facility. Subsequent U.S. and international assistance have played key roles in dis- mantling the facility and redirecting its personnel to peaceful purposes. Yet, the continuing economic and political instability in Kazakhstan maintains concerns regarding the threat of proliferation involving former BW personnel from the facility.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Government, Peace Studies, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: United States, Kazakhstan, and Soviet Union

2698. Sri Lanka: Continuing Negotiations by Other Means

Author:: Bidisha Biswas
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) pulled out of peace negotiations with the Sri Lankan government last March, putting even more stress on an already fragile peace process. Negotiations have continued, however, with a new effort to define an interim governing arrangement for the largely Tamil north and east of the country. Both sides are scrambling to show that the process can make a difference in the daily lives of residents and that they are committed to success. Nevertheless, one should not expect a speedy or smooth resolution of the conflict.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: South Asia

2699. India and Israel Move Closer Together

Author:: Armand Cucciniello and Pramit Mitra
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's short visit to India in early September, the first by an Israeli prime minister, highlighted the dramatic expansion in a relationship that started only 12 years ago. Before Sharon's early departure because of two suicide bombings back home, ministers from both countries signed six agreements covering visa requirements, environmental protection, combating illicit drug trafficking, and an initiative to begin an educational exchange program. The accent, however, was on the rapidly growing military supply relationship. Balancing its relations with Israel and its still important ties with the Muslim Middle East, especially its major oil suppliers, will be a growing challenge for India's policymakers.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: South Asia, Middle East, India, and Israel

2700. Maintaining a Balance of Power that favors Human Freedom: The Finnish Strategic Experience

Author:: Henrikki Heikka
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Why should anyone be interested in Finnish strategic thinking and the historical experiences informing it? After all, the country is one of the smallest and most peripheral in a continent that is rapidly marginalizing itself in international politics. While being safe and boring can sometimes be a result of a successful grand strategy – especially for a small state – the answer to the question above might lie in realizing that for half a millennium Finland's external security environment has been anything but safe and boring, and yet the country has managed to develop a republican/liberal political culture and to defend it against external threats.
Topic:: Civil Society, Government, International Political Economy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Finland

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS