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2841. Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries

Author:
Roberto Perotti
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on GDP, prices and interest rates in 5 OECD countries, using a structural Vector Autoregression approach. Its main results can be summarized as follows:1 ) The estimated effects of fiscal policy on GDP tend to be small: positive government spending multipliers larger than 1 tend to be the exception; 2) The effects of fiscal policy on GDP and its components have become substantially weaker over time; 3) Under plausible values of the price elasticity, government spending has positive effects on the price level, although usually small; 4) Government spending shocks have significant effects on the nominal and real short interest rate, but of varying signs; 5) In the post-1980 period, net tax shocks have positive short run effects on the nominal interest rate, and typically negative or zero effects on prices; 6) The US is an outlier in many dimensions; responses to fiscal shocks estimated on US data are often not representative of the average OECD country included in this sample.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2842. Making EU Trade Agreements Work: The Role of Rules of Origin

Author:
Paul Brenton and Miriam Manchin
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
A key element of the EU's free trade and preferential trade agreements is the extent to which they deliver improved market access and so contribute to the EUs foreign policy objectives towards developing countries and neighbouring countries in Europe, including the countries of the Balkans. Previous preferential trade schemes have been ineffective in delivering improved access to the EU market. The main reason for this is probably the very restrictive rules of origin that the EU imposes, coupled with the costs of proving consistency with these rules. If the EU wants the 'Everything but Arms' agreement and free trade agreements with countries in the Balkans to generate substantial improvements in access to the EU market for products from these countries then it will have to reconsider the current rules of origin and implement less restrictive rules backed upon by a careful safeguards policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

2843. The Development of European Citizenship and its Relevance to the Integration of Refugees

Author:
Joanna Apap
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Achieving an integrated Europe involves political and social unity as much as economic integration. Thus, the issue of European citizenship is central to the debate about European integration. Union citizenship needs to be distinguished from national citizen ship. Every citizen of the Union enjoys a first circle of nationality rights within a member state and a second circle of new rights enjoyed in any member state of the EU. The presence of immigrants in Europe also raises wider questions for government policy in the field of citizenship. There are various issues that arise in the European context with respect to the boundaries of citizenship. One of the main questions in this regard is the extent to which the division between European Union citizens and third country nationals will continue to prevail.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

2844. Enhancing the Effectiveness of the EU's Foreign and Defence Policies

Author:
Anand Menon
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The following report discusses ways of enhancing the EU's effectiveness and impact as an international actor in the light of debates currently taking place within the Convention. Its central recommendations can be briefly summarised: Clarify and discard the more extreme variants of arguments pressing for a significant EU military capability. . Create a Commissioner for External Affairs to whom other Commissioners responsible for discreet aspects of this portfolio would report. . Recreate the Political Committee, composed of Political Directors. Create a Council of Defence Ministers. Reinforce the role of the High Representative in several ways: increase the financial resources at his/her disposal; allow him/her to chair the COPS. Create an EU Security Council comprising the HR, the Secretary General of t the Council, the Commissioner for External Relations, the Presidency (in order to ensure coherence with EU internal action), the chief of the EU military staff and senior representatives from the troika.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2845. The Kyoto Protocol and the WTO: Institutional Evolution and Adaptation

Author:
Thomas L. Brewer
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Questions about the interface between the multilateral climate regime embodied in the Kyoto Protocol and the multilateral trade regime embodied in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have become especially timely since the fall of 2001. At that time, ministerial-level meetings in Marrakech and Doha agreed to advance the agendas, respectively, for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol and for negotiations on further agreements at the WTO. There have been concerns that each of these multilateral arrangements could constrain the effectiveness of the other, and these concerns will become more salient with the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol. There are questions about whether and how the rights and obligations of the members of the WTO and the parties to the Protocol may conflict. Of particular concern is members of the WTO and the parties to the Protocol may conflict. Of particular concern is whether provisions in the Protocol, as well as government policies and business activities undertaken in keeping with those provisions, may conflict with the WTO non-discrimination principles of national treatment and most-favoured nation treatment.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2846. The Wider Europe as the European Union's friendly Monroe Doctrine

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The 'Wider Europe' may, and certainly should, become one of the big next issues on the policy agenda of the European Union following the enlargement decisions to be taken in Copenhagen in December. Indeed the practical concerns raised by the forthcoming enlargement for the EU's periphery to the North, East and South are already crowding in. A new vocabulary is sprouting up in Brussels, call it as you wish: 'Wider Europe', or 'Proximity Policy', or 'Neighbourhood Policy'. What is certain is that the Wider Europe will not go away.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2847. Changing Conceptions of Security and their Implications for EU Justice and Home Affairs Cooperation

Author:
Joanna Apap and Malcolm Anderson
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
From the initiation of the debate about Europol in the late 1980s, some law enforcement agencies and political thinkers developed a concept of security that links together broad categories of activities: terrorism, drug trafficking, organised crime, transborder crime, illegal immigration, asylum seekers, and minority ethnic groups. This conception represents a variety of very different problems as elements of one general security threat. In addition, there has been a blurring of the distinction between internal and external security, as the threat of a conventional military attack on Western Europe has declined. This idea has been sharply criticised, by those such as Didier Bigo, (who has labelled this concept a security continuum,)1 for linking very different activities, profiling of groups and criminalising illegal immigrants. It is also objectionable on grounds that it categorises difficult problems as security threats too quickly and too emphatically. A crucial element in the merging of internal and external security has been the re-classification of undocumented immigrants and asylum seekers as problems of security. But the linkage between security fields lies at the core of the redefinition of the West European security following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Integration of the tasks and functions of police services, immigration services, customs and intelligence services, is sustained by the gradual re-shaping of the security continuum under the pressure of events, such as, most dramatically, the terrorist attacks of September 2001.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2848. Conflict Resolution for Moldova and Transdniestria through Federalisation?

Author:
Michael Emerson and Bruno Coppieters
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
At a meeting in Kiev on 1-3 July 2002, the mediators for the Moldovan- Transdniestria conflict proposed, at the initiative of the OSCE, a draft agreement on the constitutional system that would regulate the distribution of competencies between Chisinau and Tiraspol. This draft agreement defines the Republic of Moldova as a “federal state”. The implementation of the agreement would be monitored and ultimately guaranteed by the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the OSCE.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2849. The World Trading System: In Dire Need of Reform

Author:
Sylvia Ostry
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Over the decade of the 1990s, the deepening integration of the global economy accelerated as trade, financial flows, and foreign direct investment were liberalised. This deepening integration is, in part, a "natural" phenomenon, fed and now led by technological changes in information, communication and transport and is driving in the direction of a single global market. But, of course, governments have played an important role and international economic policy has facilitated - or perhaps even catalysed - the momentum. And the "natural" and "policy" forces are interrelated in a complex fashion that reflects the nature of the policy process . This process differs in different policy domains - for example trade versus financial or development policy. Yet it's important to underline that trade policy has indeed played a major catalytic role in fostering global integration.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2850. Georgia's Pankisi Gorge: Russian, US and European Connections

Author:
Jaba Devdariani and Blanka Hancilova
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Georgian government fails to exercise effective control over parts of its territory. In the last decade, Georgian statehood has been threatened by a civil war and secessionist conflicts. Its government has failed to reform its armed forces and has lost control over the Pankisi Gorge, a sparsely populated patch of the Caucasus Mountains on the border to Chechnya. Some hundreds Chechen fighters including several dozen Islamic extremists connected to the al-Qaeda network are believed to be hiding in that area. After the attacks on the United States on 11 September, the risks posed by failing states in the propagation of international terrorist networks are being taken more seriously into consideration. 2 The US decision to send up to 200 special operation forces to Georgia in March 2002, in order to train Georgian forces to regain control over the Pankisi Gorge, proceeds from this logic.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2851. Budgetary Implications of Enlargement: Agriculture

Author:
Johan F.M. Swinnen
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) accounts for 45% of the total EU budget. Will its extension to Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) break the EU budget? The 10 CEECs currently negotiating for membership would increase the number of farmers by 120% and would increase the area under cultivation by 42%. It is thus widely expected that enlargement will dramatically increase the cost of the CAP.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2852. Supervising the European Financial System

Author:
Karel Lannoo
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The EU's financial sector has been undergoing an almost continuous wave of de- or reregulation since the late 1980s. The Single Market programme with minimal harmonisation and home country control was implemented in successive periods for banking, insurance and the securities markets. By the end of the 1990s, however, under the impact of EMU, it was clear that this was not sufficient, and a Financial Services Action Programme set a schedule for the adoption of 42 directives to create a truly integrated financial market by 2005. Moreover, a Committee of Wise Men under the chairmanship of Alexandre Lamfalussy made proposals to ease the adaptation of EU financial regulations to market developments.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2853. Europe as a Global Economic Actor

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The three years since the start of EMU have been characterised by an extraordinary degree of volatility in global financial and other markets (oil, etc.). Most official comments have so far focused on the fact that Europe has remained an 'island of stability'. But this self congratulatory tone cannot mask the fact that EU institutions have generally not been in the forefront of the efforts to stabilise the global economy. This is partly understandable as most of the volatility originated outside the EU. But just 'putting one's own house in order' does not seem to be sufficient when global economic (or political) stability is at stake, as recent events amply demonstrate.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2854. The European Union: Teleology and some Challenges of the Eastern Enlargement

Author:
Gabriela Martin Thornton
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, quickly followed by German reunification, scholars of the European Union have emphasised that one of the most salient consequences of these events would be the enlargement of the European Union. Many have claimed that enlargement would mean galvanising the German power within the European Union, by placing Germany at the geographical heart of Europe. Enlargement was perceived either as undermining the Franco-German relationship, or even more, as replacing it by increased German connections with Eastern European countries (Braun, 1996, p. 158). The IGC in Nice struggled to reform the EU institutions in order to accommodate future members. The Treaty of Nice has generated fear within certain Western circles. Some political analysts already announced the end of Jean Monnet's “Europe”, the triumph of Germany, and with the future inclusion of Central and East European countries (CEECs), the birth of a “Europe” less “European”. Since Nice, a sea of metaphors has sparkled over the Western European newspapers with regard to “the return to Europe” of the CEECs. Nonetheless, many scholars seem to agree with Stanley Hoffman who points out that the expansion toward the east is seen as necessary in order “to provide stability in the more troublesome part of the continent and in order to protect fledgling democracy there.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Berlin

2855. The Application of Justice and Home Affairs and the position of Minorities: The case of Hungary

Author:
Judit Tóth
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
When one considers the substance of European Union (EU) official documents in a simplified way, national and ethnical minorities may appear in three contexts. The first belongs to external relations (common foreign and security policy), which cover minorities as a matter of human rights in third countries. These documents call upon the (third) countries concerned to respect human rights and international and European standards on minorities' rights that are also endorsed by the EU. In this regard, the legislation being developed in view of a common European migration policy contains provisions about the respect of minority rights in order to prevent further migration waves.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

2856. The Schengen Challenge and its Balkan Dimensions

Author:
Péter Kovács
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The subject of this paper is undoubtedly of paramount importance for a number of Central and East European countries. The image of a “Schengen Fortress” in statu nascendi is disappointing even for those who are enthusiastic about the accession of their countries to a unified Europe. There is a widespread fear – rational or not – that cross-border human contacts and travel possibilities from East to West will become more difficult than they were in the years following the fall of the Berlin Wall. The same feeling can be detected even in the Balkans, where certain countries also show symptoms of the “Schengen Fortress”.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

2857. Russia's engagement with Justice and Home Affairs: A Question of Mutual Trust

Author:
Olga Potemkina
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Does Russia need international cooperation? This question may seem rhetorical, to which one would give a positive response, but the findings of a public opinion survey conducted by the independent Russian research organisation ROMIR clearly suggest otherwise. In April 2001, a total of 1,500 Russians were polled in 160 locations in 94 villages, towns and cities, in 40 regions, territories and republics of the Russian Federation. The questions asked concerned several key aspects of EU-Russian relations and the need for increased cooperation with international organisations.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

2858. Russia and the EU: The Kaliningrad Dilemma

Author:
Yuri Borko
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Strictly speaking, there are two groups of problems related to this topic. Firstly, there are some particular issues arising from the enlargement process; namely the movement of goods and people between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia, including visa regime, energy supply of the region, trans-border cooperation and fisheries. To solve these problems or not to solve them is like Hamlet's dilemma “to be or not to be”. These problems have to be solved by the Union and Russia, with the participation, at least jointly, of Poland and Lithuania.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Poland, and Lithuania

2859. Border Countries in an Enlarging Union: Some Reflections based on the Italian Experience

Author:
Ferruccio Pastore
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In order to understand the Italian perspective – or rather the Italian perspectives – on the shift eastward of EU external borders, it is useful, if not necessary, to anticipate briefly a few schematic concepts about the meaning of borders in Italian history. This will enable us to achieve a better understanding of current Italian attitudes in the European debate on border management issues in the framework of the enlargement process. But a rapid overview on the recent transformation of the nature and function of borders in the Italian case will also allow us to draw some tentative lessons for the ongoing enlargement process in the field of Justice and Home Affairs.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

2860. Basel II: The Remaining Issues

Author:
Moritz Meier-Ewert
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In January 2001, the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision (BCBS) presented its latest proposals for a revised Capital Adequacy Accord. The aim of this revision is to address some of the perceived shortcomings of the 1988 Accord, which is currently being applied. These new proposals include a number of important improvements, but unfortunately there is a serious risk that in some areas they are overshooting their target. As a result they could have adverse consequences not only for the structure of the banking industry, but also for developing countries and for systemic stability. Indeed, if implemented in its current form, the Accord could lead to a serious round of consolidation in the banking sector resulting in the domination of the market by a handful of internationally active banks, widen the amplitudes of business cycles as well as increase the frequency of financial crisis through enhanced procyclicality, and effectively cut off a number of developing country borrowers from bank-finance.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe