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201. North Caucasus Weekly: Attempt on Ramzan Kadyrov's Life Reported

Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov on July 30 denied reports that he had been the target of an assassination attempt. “Those rumors are being generated either by the Wahhabis themselves or provocateurs straining for cheap sensationalism,” Gazeta.ru quoted Kadyrov as saying during a meeting with Chechnya's education and science minister, Anzor Muzaev. The Chechen president insisted that the situation in the republic is peaceful and stable. “Naturally, there is a circle of persons whom this [situation] doesn't suit,” he said. “This sort of verbiage has only one goal—to destabilize the situation in the region. These provocative fantasies are engendered by ideologists of the extremists and their henchmen. Jackals who don't have the guts to go into the woods themselves.” The Chechen president's press service also denied that there had been an attempt on Kadyrov's life, calling the reports “provocations aimed against the Chechen Republic and its president.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and North Caucasus

202. This section lists articles and reviews of books relevant to Palestine and the Arab-Israeli conflict. Entries are classified under the following headings: Reference and General; History (to 1948) and Geography; Palestinian Politics and Society; Jerusalem; Israeli Politics, Society, and Zionism; Arab and Middle Eastern Politics; International Relations; Law; Military; Economy, Society, and Education; Literature and Art; Book Reviews; and Reports Received.

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Palestine Studies
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
Reference and General Davidson, Lawrence. "The Attack on Middle East Studies: A Historical Perspective." MEP 15, no. 1 (Spr. 08): 149-60. Dueck, Jennifer M. "The Middle East and North Africa in the Imperial and Post-Colonial Historiography of France." Historical Journal 50, no. 4 (07): 935-50. Firestone, Reuven. "Contextualizing Anti-Semitism in Islam: Chosenness, Choosing, and the Emergence of New Religion." International Journal of Applied Psychoanalytic Studies 4, no. 3 (Sep. 07): 235-54. Kahtani, Hani M. "Islamic Architecture: A Reflection of the Political and Social Structure of the State in Islam" [in Arabic]. MA 30, no. 348 (Feb. 08): 27-40. Kirmanj, Sherko. "The Relationship between Traditional and Contemporary Islamist Political Thought." MERIA 12, no. 1 (Mar. 08): 69-82. Kurzman, Charles. "Cross-Regional Approaches to Middle East Studies: Constructing and Deconstructing a Region." MESA 41, no. 1 (Sum. 07): 24-29. Mahmud, Ahmad I. "The Concept of Terrorism: Ambiguous Terms and Suspicious Functions" [in Arabic]. ShA, no. 133 (Spr. 08): 48-64. Yusef, Ayman T. "The Western Stereotype of Islam: Between Extremism and Phobia" [in Arabic]. MAUS, no. 18 (Spr. 08): 117-46. Zurndorfer, Harriet T. "The Orientation of JESHO's Orient and the Problem of 'Orientalism': Some Reflections on the Occasion of JESHO's Fiftieth Anniversary." Journal of the Economic and Social History of the Orient 51, no. 1 (08): 2-30. History (tHROUGH 1948) and Geography Adorno, Massimo L. "De Clementi's Report: The Nineteenth Zionist Congress, Lucerne, 1935, as Viewed by an Italian Diplomat." IsA 14, no. 2 (Apr. 08): 288-300. Bernstein, Deborah, and Badi Hasisi. "'Buy and Promote the National Cause': Consumption, Class Formation and Nationalism in Mandate Palestinian Society." Nations and Nationalism 14, no. 1 (Jan. 08): 127-50. Coleman, Simon. "A Tale of Two Centres? Representing Palestine to the British in the Nineteenth Century." Mobilities 2, no. 3 (Nov. 07): 331-45. Dueck, Jennifer M. "A Muslim Jamboree: Scouting and Youth Culture in Lebanon under the French Mandate." French Historical Studies 30, no. 3 (Sum. 07): 485-517. Gal, Allon, and Isaac Lubelsky. "The Disintegration of the British Empire and the Nationalist Cases of India and Israel: A Comparative Analysis." IsA 14, no. 2 (Apr. 08): 165-83. Hametz, Maura E. "Zionism, Emigration, and Antisemitism in Trieste: Central Europe's 'Gateway to Zion,' 1896-1943." Jewish Social Studies 13, no. 3 (Spr./Sum. 07): 103-34. Hanania, Mary. "Jurji Habib Hanania: History of the Earliest Press in Palestine, 1908-1914." JQ, no. 32 (Fall 07): 51-69. Harel, Yaron. "Jewish Nationalism, Zionism, Journalism and Socialism under Faisal's Rule in Damascus" [in Hebrew]. Pe'amim, nos. 111-12 (Spr.-Sum. 07): 103-44. Kabalo, Paula. "Leadership behind the Curtains: The Case of Israeli Women in 1948." Modern Judaism 28, no. 1 (Feb. 08): 14-40. Keren, Shlomit, and Michael Keren. "Chaplain with a Star of David: Reverend Leib Isaac Falk and the Jewish Legions." IsA 14, no. 2 (Apr. 08): 184-201. Mrowat, Ahmad. "Karimeh Abbud: Early Woman Photographer (1896-1955)." JQ, no. 31 (Sum. 07): 72-78. Newsinger, John. "Liberal Imperialism and the Occupation of Egypt in 1882." Race and Class 49, no. 3 (Jan. 08): 54-75. Renton, James. "Changing Languages of Empire and the Orient: Britain and the Invention of the Middle East, 1917-1918." Historical Journal 50, no. 3 (07): 645-68. Wahrman, Jacob, Ron Shafir, and Dror Wahrman. "The Vanishing Station at Sejed: On the History and Significance of the Jaffa-Jerusalem Railroad" [in Hebrew]. Cathedra, no. 125 (Sep. 07): 31-52. Williams, Manuela. "Mussolini's Secret War in the Mediterranean and the Middle East: Italian Intelligence and the British Response." Intelligence and National Security 22, no. 6 (Dec. 07): 881-904. Palestinian Politics and Society Ahmed, Hisham H. "Hamas under the Spotlight." Against the Current 22, no. 6 (08): 26-30. Allam, Do`aa H. "Palestinian Crossings: A Complex Problem" [in Arabic]. SD 44, no. 172 (Apr. 08): 140-45. El-Astal, Sofián. "The Values of the Palestinian University Youth." Revista de Psicología Social 23, no. 1 (Jan. 08): 53-61. Azaar, Muhammad K. "Ambiguous Arab Concepts and Prospects: The Case of Palestine" [in Arabic]. ShA, no. 133 (Spr. 08): 114-26. Baqer, Ibrahim. "Does the Left Resist Compromise When the Homeland is Occupied?" [in Arabic]. MA 30, no. 349 (Mar. 08): 73-80. Barghouti, Omar. "Palestine: débâcle du mouvement national et conditions d'une renaissance." Alternatives Sud 14, no. 4 (07): 155-59. Biger, Gideon. "The Boundaries of Israel-Palestine Past, Present, and Future: A Critical Geographical View." IsS 13, no. 1 (Spr. 07): 68-93. Challand, Benoît. "A Nahda of Charitable Organizations? Health Service Provision and the Politics of Aid in Palestine." IJMES 40, no. 2 (May 08): 227-47. Crispino, Franck. "Importance de la preuve scientifique dans la création d'un Etat: l'exemple palestinien." Revue Internationale de Criminologie et de Police Technique et Scientifique 60, no. 4 (Oct.-Dec. 07): 455-60. Gross, Zehavit. "Relocation in Rural and Urban Settings: A Case Study of Uprooted Schools from the Gaza Strip." Education and Urban Society 40, no. 2 (08): 269-95. Hamdan, Lubna K., M. Zarei, R.R. Chianelli, et al. "Sustainable Water and Energy in Gaza Strip." Renewable Energy 33, no. 6 (08): 1137-46. Hart, Jason. "Dislocated Masculinity: Adolescence and the Palestinian Nation-in-Exile." Journal of Refugee Studies 21, no. 1 (Mar. 08): 64-81. Hasian, Marouf. "Tangled Rhetorical Histories and Competing Political Memories: Remembering Palestine." Review of Communication 7, no. 4 (Oct. 07): 388-95. Hassan-Bitar, Sahar, and Laura Wick. "Evoking the Guardian Angel: Childbirth Care in a Palestinian Hospital." Reproductive Health Matters 15, no. 30 (Nov. 07): 103-13. al-Houdalieh, Salah H. "The Destruction of Palestinian Archaeological Heritage: Saffa Village as a Model." Near Eastern Archaeology 69, no. 2 (Jun. 07): 102-12. Kayyali, Majed. "The Gaza Crisis: What Next for Fatah and Hamas?" [in Arabic]. SD 44, no. 172 (Apr. 08): 136-39. Legrain, Jean-François. "La dynamique de la 'guerre civile' en Palestine." Critique Internationale, no. 36 (Jul.-Sep. 07): 147-65. Lewis, Frank D. "Compensation and the Abandoned Property of the 1948 Palestinian Refugees: Assessment and Implications." Explorations in Economic History 44, no. 4 (Oct. 07): 520-37. Lybarger, Loren D. "For Church or Nation? Islamism, Secular-Nationalism, and the Transformation of Christian Identities in Palestine." Journal of the American Academy of Religion 75, no. 4 (Dec. 07): 777-813. Mavroudi, Elizabeth. "Palestinians and Pragmatic Citizenship: Negotiating Relationships between Citizenship and National Identity in Diaspora." Geoforum 38, no. 1 (Jan. 08): 307-18. Oliver, Kelly. "Palestinian Women Suicide Bombers: 'Débâcles amoureuses'?" Nottingham French Studies 46, no. 3 (Aut. 07): 17-31. Rabinowitz, Dan, and Daniel Monterescu. "Reconfiguring the 'Mixed Town': Urban Transformations of Ethnonational Relations in Palestine and Israel." IJMES 40, no. 2 (May 08): 195-226. Robinson, Glenn E. "The Fragmentation of Palestine." Current History 107, no. 704 (Dec. 07): 421-26. Sa'ar, Amalia. "Contradictory Location: Assessing the Position of Palestinian Women Citizens of Israel." JMEWS 3, no. 3 (Fall 07): 45-74. ---. "Maneuvering between State, Nation, and Tradition: Palestinian Women in Israel Make Creative Applications of Polygyny." Journal of Anthropological Research 63, no. 4 (Win. 07): 515-36. al-Sa`ed, Rashed. "Sustainability of Natural and Mechanized Aerated Ponds for Domestic and Municipal Wastewater Treatment in Palestine." Water International 32, no. 2 (Jun. 07): 310-24. Sakkar, Michel. "Palestine: le Hamas après le coup d'état de Gaza." CM, no. 64 (Win. 07): 147-54. Samuel, S., and C. Rajiv. "The Hamas Takeover and its Aftermath." Strategic Analysis 31, no. 5 (Sep. 07): 843-51. Sayigh, Rosemary. "Product and Producer of Palestinian History: Stereotypes of 'Self' in Camp Women's Life Stories." JMEWS 3, no. 2 (Win. 07): 86-105.Signoles, Aude. "Le Hamas, des islamistes au pouvoir." Maghreb-Machrek, no. 194 (08): 39-54.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and North Africa

203. Disaster in the DRC: Responding to the Humanitarian Crisis in North Kivu

Author:
Catherine Morris and Go Funai
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
This USIPeace Briefing discusses a recent event that focused on human security implications of resurgent violence which left hundreds dead, thousands displaced and millions destitute in North Kivu province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The conclusions and recommendations from this event highlight the importance of going beyond traditional short-term humanitarian interventions to adopt more comprehensive and sustainable solutions that effectively balance security and development.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, Humanitarian Aid, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

204. No Way Out: An Assessment of the Romani Community in Georgia

Author:
David Szakonyi
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
The Romani community is the most marginalized and disadvantaged ethnic community in Georgia. Although accurate estimates are hard to establish, the population is thought to number up to 1,500 persons, living in multiple small settlements across Georgia. Extreme poverty, unemployment, lack of education and health care, and isolation from larger society comprise several of the major problems the community as a whole is facing. The overall situation for the Roms in Georgia has significantly deteriorated since the Soviet period, leaving the population practically devoid of any means to lift themselves out of their often devastating circumstances.
Topic:
Education, Ethnic Conflict, Health, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, and Georgia

205. Elected Representatives/Political Parties and Minority Ethnic Communities in Northern Ireland

Author:
Aidan McGarry, Paul Hainsworth, and Chris Gilligan
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Initiative on Conflict Resolution and Ethnicity
Abstract:
The aim of the project is to examine the attitudes of elected representatives and political parties in Northern Ireland towards minority ethnic communities. It also explores the extent and nature of political parties' and elected representatives' engagement with minority ethnic communities. The research began on March 1st 2007 and ended on June 30th 2008.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Ireland

206. Privatization of Land and Indigenous Communities in Latin America: Tenure Security or Social Security?

Author:
Søren Hvalkof
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This working paper summarizes the discussions and findings of a recent study of the impacts of contemporary land privatization processes and individual titling programs affecting indigenous communities in Latin America, with particular emphasis on indigenous economies and production systems. The study was informed by case studies from Peru, Bolivia and Honduras and Mexico, with the main focus on the indigenous peasant societies of the highlands, where individualization schemes apply. The neoliberal policies of the 1990s promoted market based legal and administrative reforms, with a strong emphasis on developing a dynamic land market that would eventually have an impact on indigenous communal land tenure systems, whether they were the direct target or not. From the present study it can be seen that there are significant contradictions between indigenous communal land arrangements and tenure systems, and the market-based land and agricultural policy reforms being promoted by the multilateral donor agencies. In the conventional economic development discourse land tenure security is considered a prerequisite for economic growth. The study shows, however, that in relation to indigenous communities the question of tenure security is much more complex and closely related to the security of social reproduction, safeguarding of communal control and of the communal decision-making authority. It shows that privatization and individualization of land tenure per se has not generated the expected results.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Latin America

207. Conditions for Hospitality or Defence of Identity? Writers in Need of Refuge – a Case of Denmark's 'Muslim relations'

Author:
Ulrik Pram Gad
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
As one of the last decisions before it broke for this year's summer recess, The Danish Parliament, Folketinget, passed two bills to facilitate the participation of Danish municipalities in the International Cities of Refuge Network. On the face of it, it might be good news that yet another country opens its borders to writers targeted with threats and persecution.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, and Immigration
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

208. It takes two to Tango. Danish concepts of dialogue as counterterrorism

Author:
Ulrik Pram Gad
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Since 9/11, the terrorist is often awarded the position of the radical Other of Danish identity; the personified existential threat to Denmark (not primarily as a state but as a society). The strategy of the Danish government to counter terrorism describes itself as covering a 'broad spectrum' of efforts. It includes an 'active foreign policy' in relation to the Muslim world and an 'active integration policy' in relation to Muslim migrants. Both inside and outside the nation state efforts range from 'hard power' security strategies of elimination and control involving military, police, and intelligence operations to 'soft power' strategies of information, partnerships, and dialogue. The paper analyses Danish counterterrorism policies to identify the concepts of dialogue implied and the positions awarded to less-than-radical Muslim Others. The paper concludes that Muslims might in counterterrorism dialogue find a position for talking back – even if it is still a position circumscribed by control and securitization.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Migration, Terrorism, and Immigration
Political Geography:
Europe

209. Middle East Perspectives: Conference Proceedings from Gstaad, Switzerland

Author:
Shai Feldman, Shahram Chubin, Abdulaziz Sager, and David L. Aaron
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The Middle East and its security remains a vital ingredient in international security. The region's tensions, conflicts and stability are of fundamental concern to a wide range of actors, whose interests or proximity make it a priority. The novelty today is the increasing inter-relations of these conflicts and instability and the limitations of outside power influence. This, together with the appearance of new actors in the region, namely India and China, seems likely to transform diplomacy in the future. Regional dynamics, which are increasingly resistant to outside power influence or control, continue to shape the strategic environment. These dynamic forces, ranging from terrorism, sectarianism, and on-going conflicts, intersect and add to the region's instability and fragmentation. The conflict zone (from the Levant to Iran) overlaps the “energy ellipse” (in the Gulf), that is, the dependence of much of the world on this region for energy supplies. Superimposed on this is the related feature of the region, namely the emergence in the GCC of the 'super rich' states, carving out a new niche and economic identity with their newfound wealth. The region is thus complex: unstable, vulnerable, and wealthy in parts. Weak, shattered, or embryonic states (Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine) co-exist with strong states like Egypt, cautious ones like Saudi Arabia, and ambitious ones, notably Iran. What seems clear from the perspective of 2008 is the continuing need for international engagement, combined with a recognition that this engagement must be constructive and cannot substitute for local initiatives or substitute for local forces, which at best, can only be harnessed, not controlled.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, Oil, and War
Political Geography:
China, Iraq, Middle East, India, Palestine, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Egypt

210. Cutting or Tightening the Gordian Knot? The Future of Kosovo and the Peace Process in the Western Balkans after the Decision on Independence

Author:
Predrag Jureković, Ernst M. Felberbauer, and Frederic Labarre (Eds.)
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
The declaration of independence of Kosovo on February 17 th , 2008 has marked the last stage of Kosovo's path to state building and also has closed the last chapter on the disintegration of Yugoslavia. The declaration of independence and the subsequent enacting of the Constitution by the Assembly of the Republic of Kosovo were not annulled by United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). Therefore, the legality of this act was quietly accepted by UNMIK, despite the lack of agreement within United Nations Security Council (UNSC). In addition, a day before the independence was declared, the EU Special Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy Dr. Javier Solana, appointed Mr. Peter Feith as the Head of International Civilian Office (ICO) and the Council of European Union decided to deploy the EULEX Mission to Kosovo as envisaged by the Ahtisaari's Comprehensive Status Proposal.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Balkans

211. North Caucasus Weekly- Volume IX, Issue 46

Author:
Alexander Melikishvili
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
IN THIS ISSUE: Women Found Murdered in Chechnya Aushev: Moscow Should Talk to Rebels in the North Caucasus Assassination of Vladikavkaz Mayor: Business or Politics? Briefs Kadyrov Claims Demise of Insurgency: Rebels Respond with Wave of New Attacks By Mairbek Vatchagaev Lezgin Refugees from Dagestan Seek Refuge in Georgia's Kakheti Region.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

212. North Caucasus Weekly - Volume IX, Issue 45

Author:
Fatima Tlisova
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
IN THIS ISSUE: Medov Removed as Ingushetia's Interior Minister Human Rights Violations Remain Rife in Ingushetia Sulim Yamadaev Says a Chechen Unit Has Been Sent to Moscow to Kill Him Briefs Dagestan's Sharia Jamaat Expands and Reorganizes By Mairbek Vatchagaev Circassian Congress Calls for Unification of Circassian Republics in North Caucasus.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

213. North Caucasus Weekly - Volume IX, Issue 47

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
IN THIS ISSUE: Ingush President Makes Opposition Lawyer His Adviser Kadyrov Performs the Hajj Pilgrimage Sharia Jamaat Threatens Dagestani Police, Officials, Clergy KBR Authorities Again Vow to Catch Anzor Astemirov Militant Actions Shake Up Dagestan.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

214. North Caucasus Weekly - - Volume IX, Issue 48

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
IN THIS ISSUE: Rights Activists: Religious Repression Feeds Dagestan's Insurgency New Ingush Rights Council Flooded with Complaints Spain Agrees toExtradite Former Rebel Commander Briefs Chechen Interior Minister Tries to Play Down the InsurgencyBy Mairbek Vatchagaev New Tensions Surface in Ossetian-Ingush RelationsBy Valery Dzutsev.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

215. North Caucasus Weekly: Ruslan Yamadaev Murdered in Moscow

Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Ruslan Yamadaev, the older brother of Vostok (East) battalion commander Sulim Yamadaev and former State Duma deputy who received a Hero of Russia award in August 2004 from then President Vladimir Putin, was shot to death in central Moscow on September 24. As is typically the case with high-profile murders in Russia, Yamadaev's killing has sparked a flurry of competing theories as to who was behind the deed.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Moscow, and North Caucasus

216. Ethnic Coalitions of Convenience and Commitment: Political Parties and Party Systems in Kenya

Author:
Sebastian Elischer
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the role of ethnicity in shaping the character of Kenya's political parties and its party system since 1992. Drawing on a constructivist conception of ethnicity, it uses a framework of comparison derived from Donald Horowitz and distinguishes between three party types: the mono-ethnic party, the multi-ethnic alliance type and the multi-ethnic integrative type. It shows that although Kenyan parties have increasingly incorporated diverse communities, they have consistently failed to bridge the country's dominant ethnic cleavages. Consequently, all of Kenya's significant parties represent ethnic coalitions of convenience and commitment and, thus, ethnic parties. The paper further states that the country's post-2007 political environment is a by-product of the omnipresence of this party type.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

217. Kenya in Crisis

Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since the announcement of the contested presidential election results on 30 December 2007 giving a second term to Mwai Kibaki, Kenya has been in its worst political crisis since independence. Over 1,000 people have died and 300,000 have been displaced in violence with a serious ethnic character. As former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan conducts negotiations for a political settlement, calm has partly returned, but the situation remains highly volatile. To address the causes of the crisis, it will not be enough for the Annan team to broker a deal on the mechanics of a transitional arrangement between political opponents and schedule negotiations on a reform agenda. A sustainable settlement must address in detail a program of power sharing, constitutional and legal reform and economic policies that convinces the drivers of violence to disarm. For negotiations to succeed, the international community must enhance its pressure, including aid conditionality and threats and application of targeted sanctions against spoilers.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and United Nations

218. Sri Lanka's Return to War: Limiting the Damage

Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sri Lanka is in civil war again, and there are no prospects of a peace process resuming soon. On 2 January 2008, the government announced its withdrawal from a ceasefire agreement with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). This formalised a return to conflict that has been underway since 2006 but also presaged worse to come. The humanitarian crisis is deepening, abuses of human rights by both sides are increasing, and those calling for peace are being silenced. There is no present chance of a new ceasefire or negotiations since the government, despite pro forma statements in favour of a political solution, is dependent on hardliners and appears intent on a military decision. International actors must concentrate for now on damage limitation: protecting civilians from the war's worst effects and supporting those working to preserve Sri Lanka's democratic institutions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and War
Political Geography:
Asia and Sri Lanka

219. Political Murder in Central Asia: No Time to End Uzbekistan's Isolation

Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
There are strong indications that Uzbek security forces murdered one of Kyrgyzstan's most prominent journalists, Alisher Saipov, in October 2007 during the build-up to Uzbekistan's end of year presidential elections, most likely because of his involvement in Erk (Freedom), a leading exile opposition party. If this is the case, it would appear that the security organs, which are the key to keeping President Islam Karimov in power, are increasingly willing to move against any perceived danger, even if it involves pre-emptive strikes in foreign territory. This may be a sign not only of the ruthlessness of the regime but also of its increasing fragility. At the least it underlines the need for the U.S. and the European Union (EU) to resist the temptation to respond to Karimov's dubious December 2007 re-election with efforts at re-engagement, in the apparent hope of regaining or retaining military bases for Afghanistan operations or of outflanking Russia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan

220. Afghanistan: The Need for International Resolve

Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Afghanistan is not lost but the signs are not good. Its growing insurgency reflects a collective failure to tackle the root causes of violence. Six years after the Taliban's ouster, the international community lacks a common diagnosis of what is needed to stabilise the country as well as a common set of objectives. Long-term improvement of institutions is vital for both state building and counterinsurgency, but without a more strategic approach, the increased attention and resources now directed at quelling the conflict could even prove counterproductive by furthering a tendency to seek quick fixes. Growing tensions over burden sharing risk undermining the very foundations of multilateralism, including NATO's future. The U.S., which is demanding more commitment by allies, must realise that its unilateral actions weaken the will of others. At the same time, those sniping from the sidelines need to recognise that the Afghan intervention is ultimately about global security and do more.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban

221. Burma/Myanmar: After the Crackdown

Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The violent crushing of protests led by Buddhist monks in Burma/Myanmar in late 2007 has caused even allies of the military government to recognise that change is desperately needed. China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have thrown their support behind the efforts by the UN Secretary-General's special envoy to re-open talks on national reconciliation, while the U.S. and others have stepped up their sanctions. But neither incomplete punitive measures nor intermittent talks are likely to bring about major reforms. Myanmar's neighbours and the West must press together for a sustainable process of national reconciliation. This will require a long-term effort by all who can make a difference, combining robust diplomacy with serious efforts to address the deep-seated structural obstacles to peace, democracy and development.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and War
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Burma, United Nations, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

222. Special Report No. 211: Would You Fight Again?: Understanding Liberian Ex-Combatant Reintegration

Author:
Richard Hill, Gwendolyn Taylor, and Jonathan Temin
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The potential for renewed fighting is closely linked to poverty and hardship. Liberian ex-combatants most commonly cited reasons for considering a return to combat include poverty and economic disadvantage, followed by a lack of jobs, benefits, or training. Unemployment plays a role in the potential return to combat, especially for those who were previously employed. As expected, a greater percentage of unemployed than employed respondents can envision returning to war. However, one population that is significantly more likely to return to combat is ex-combatants who held a job before the war but are now unemployed. problems in gaining acceptance by family and community are also closely linked to willingness to consider fighting again. Respondents who have had difficulty reintegrating into their home communities and who perceive bias against ex-combatants seem more inclined to return to combat. Women may be especially prone to fight again to find relief from poverty. There were comparatively few women fighters and, therefore, relatively few women in the sample, but results suggest that women, particularly those without families, might be more likely than men to fight if it becomes financially necessary. Tribal tensions still exist and could lead to outbreaks of violence. There are still feelings, especially among members of certain ethnic groups, that ex-combatants from their tribe are not accorded full citizen status by members of other tribes.
Topic:
Civil Society, Ethnic Conflict, Human Welfare, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

223. Sudanese Universities as Sites of Social Transformation

Author:
Linda S. Bishai
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Education is an important resource for any country, but it is especially valuable in spreading the values that transform a wartime society into one with a culture of peace. Some of the structural inequities besetting the educational system in Sudan today stem from the colonial period and policies set during the early days of independence. Efforts to unify the country through an Arabic national curriculum caused resentment and alienation in the non-Arab communities and exacerbated civil conflicts. Sudanese universities have historically been the incubators of political change in Sudan, and student unions in particular have retained a tradition of vibrant—and sometimes violent—political activity. The education revolution implemented by the current regime in the 1990s overextended Sudanese universities, resulting in an extreme teacher deficit and the degradation of university resources and degrees. Various additional policies had the effect of intimidating university students and teachers, changing the atmosphere on campuses and leading to a nonreflective focus on exam results and to little intellectual exchange. In the interim period between the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the general election, a new openness allowed universities to begin to revive their historical intellectual traditions. This openness will be vital for securing peace with the South and for eventually reconciling Darfur and the East. A productive model has been illustrated by efforts to engage Sudanese universities with their local communities as sites for the development and sharing of public information, culture, and the acceptance of difference. The international community should advocate creative collaboration, research, and teaching exchanges both to and from Sudan, encourage international conferences involving Sudanese students and faculty, and pay active attention to restoring Sudanese libraries and research facilities. Sudanese education officials, university faculty, and civil-society organizations should work together to counter four key educational problems: the lack of exposure to critical thinking and research skills; the lack of vibrant extracurricular life; the alienation of universities from their local communities; and the recurring pattern of violent student activism.
Topic:
Development, Education, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

224. North Caucasus Weekly:Vostok and Zapad Battalions to be “Reorganized"

Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The deputy commander of Russia's army, Colonel General Vladimir Moltenskoi, announced on November 8 that the two Chechen-manned special force battalions of the Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), Vostok and Zapad, will be reformed into companies of the Defense Ministry's 42nd Motor Rifle Division, which isbased in Chechnya. According to RIA Novosti, Moltenskoi announced the reorganization at a meeting with Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov in Grozny. However, there was some confusion about the battalions' fate: Interfax quoted the Chechen president's press service as saying that Moltenskoi had said the battalions would be disbanded. Yet Moltenskoi told Interfax on November 8 that the units would not be disbanded but rather reorganized into companies within the 42nd Motor Rifle Division. Interfax on November 10 quoted Kadyrov's press service as saying that it had been stated during the meeting between the Chechen president and Moltenskoi onNovember 8 that the criminal investigation committee of the Russian Prosecutor General had ordered the Chechen Interior Ministry to bring Sulim Yamadaev to interrogators by force. Prague Watchdog reported on November 10 that the Chechen Interior Ministry had received a formal request on November 7 that Sulim Yamadaev be sent to the Gudermes district investigative unit for questioning. According to the website, Yamadaev is the principal suspect in the case of the murder of aGudermes district resident committed ten years ago.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

225. North Caucasus Weekly: Ingushetia's Parliament Confirms New Presiden

Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Ingushetia's parliament on October 31 confirmed Yunus-Bek Yevkurov as the republic's president, replacing Murat Zyazikov, who resigned the previous day (North Caucasus Weekly, October 31). According to Itar-Tass, 16 legislators out of the 18 who attended the session voted to confirm the 45-year-old colonel, while one voted against and one ballot was invalidated. The news agency reported that Yevkurov was born into an ethnic Ingush family in North Ossetia and graduated from the Ryazan Higher School of Airborne Troops in 1989. In 2004, he graduated from the Academy of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff, Russia's highest military education institution. In 1999, Yevkurov commanded a unit of Russian paratroopers that entered Kosovo and took control of the international airport ahead of the forces of other countries. As the Moscow Times wrote on November 1, Russian media reported that Yevkurov led the 200-man contingent that caught NATO off guard by racing from Bosnia to Kosovo to occupy the airport in Kosovo's capital of Pristina, an operation at the end of the Kosovo war that “risked a dangerous confrontation with NATO troops, who were also heading to the airport.” According to the English-language newspaper, it was later revealed that an armed clash was only averted because the local NATO commander, British General Michael Jackson, refused to be involved in a conflict that could “start World War III.” However, Itar-Tass, in its description of the incident, wrote that the Russian race to occupy the airport in Pristina “went down in the history of the Russian Airborne Troops as one of the most successful peacekeeping operations.”
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Bosnia, Asia, and Kosovo

226. North Caucasus Weekly: Zyazikov Steps Dow

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On October 30, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree ordering an early end to Murat Zyazikov's term as Ingushetia's president, Itar-Tass reported, citing the Russian presidential press service. Zyazikov, the former KGB general who headed Ingushetia for six and a half years, said that his resignation as Ingushetia's president was absolutely voluntary and connected to his transfer to another job. “I will be working in Moscow,” Interfax quoted him as saying. Zyazikov did not indicate what his new job would be.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

227. North Caucasus Weekly: New Ingush President Shows Signs that he'll Take a Different Approach

Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
“From the very first moment of his appointment, General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov has behaved like a man sent to the front line with a special mission,” the piece stated. “He cancelled the inauguration ceremony and the celebrations that are normally held when a new Ingush president takes office. On his first day he visited the central mosque to take part in the evening prayers. His predecessors have also made such visits from time to time, but only as guests of honor. Yevkurov plans to rely primarily on the people, rather than on the siloviki and the bureaucrats. He let this be understood when, on returning from prayers, he requested support from the elders of the Ingush teips.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Ingushetia

228. North Caucasus Weekly: Medov Removed as Ingushetia's Interior Minister

Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Russian Interior Minister Rashid Nurgaliev removed Musa Medov as Ingushetia's interior minister on November 24. Medov, along with Murat Zyazikov, who was removed as Ingushetia's president late last month (North Caucasus Weekly, October 30), were accused by the republic's opposition party of involvement in the August 31 murder of Magomed Yevloev, founder of the independent Ingushetiya.ru website (North Caucasus Weekly, September 5). Ingushetiya.ru's successor website, Ingushetia.org, reported on November 25 that Medov has been replaced by Colonel Ruslan Meiriev, a former employee of the police department in the Siberian town of Nizhnevartovsk. Newsru.com on November 25 quoted sources in the federal Interior Ministry as saying that Medov had been given a job in the ministry's apparatus in Moscow—which is in effect a promotion. The website reported that Meiriev had been introduced to the staff of Ingush President Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and Deputy Russian Interior Minister Colonel-General Arkady Yedelev.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Moscow, North Caucasus, and Ingushetia

229. North Caucasus Weekly:Chechen and Federal Authorities Declare Sulim Yamadaev a Fugitive

Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The ongoing conflict between the pro-Moscow government and the Vostok battalion of the Russian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) intensified on August 6 when the Chechen authorities announced that the battalion's commander, Sulim Yamadaev, has been put on the federal wanted list for various crimes, including an alleged murder. On August 7, the Investigative Committee of the Russian Prosecutor General's Office confirmed that Yamadaev had been put on the federal wanted list for the 1998 murder of a Chechen businessman, Itar-Tass reported.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

230. North Caucasus Weekly: Wanted Chechen Commander Leads his Battalion against Georgian Forces

Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Kavkazky Uzel reported on August 13 that members of the Chechen-manned Vostok battalion of the Russian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) were among the Russian forces that invaded Georgia. According to the website, the Vostok fighters were located in area of the Georgian town of Gori along with Sulim Yamadaev, the Vostok battalion commander. Yamadaev, who became a target of Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov's wrath following a confrontation and apparent shootout last April involving Vostok members and security forces loyal to Kadyrov, was put on Russia's federal wanted list earlier this month.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Georgia

231. North Caucasus Weekly: Police Disperse Demonstrators Protesting Killing of Website Owner

Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Police in Ingushetia's largest city, Nazran, forcefully broke up an anti-government protest on September 2, two days after police shot dead Magomed Yevloev, owner of the opposition Ingushetiya.ru website. Reuters reported that the protest started during the funeral of Yevloev, who died after being shot while in police custody. The news agency quoted Magomed Mutsolgov of the Ingushetia-based human rights group Mashr as saying police had arrived at around 5:30 a.m. local time to disperse a crowd of around 50 men who had been sleeping in Nazran's main square. Police and military vehicles were then deployed to block access to the main square, Mutsolgov told Reuters. Protest organizers later vowed to try and force their way back into the square on September 2. However, an Ingushetia Interior Ministry press official denied the police had forced the demonstrators to leave and insisted they had left peacefully. “We didn't even have to make any arrests,” Reuters quoted the official as saying.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

232. North Caucasus Weekly: Gunmen Target Zyazikov's Home and Cousin

Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Newsru.com reported on September 11 that unidentified attackers had fired grenade launchers and machine guns at Ingush President Murat Zyazikov's home in the Nazran municipal district village of Barsuki the previous evening. A home located nearby belonging to relatives of Zyazikov was also reportedly targeted. According to Ingushetiya.ru, there was no information on whether there were any casualties from the attack, which lasted around 20 minutes. Ingushetia's Interior Ministry, meanwhile, denied that such an attack took place, Interfax reported.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

233. North Caucasus Weekly:Attacks Continue in Ingusheti

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
A car belonging to an official believed to be a relative of Musa Medov, Ingushetia's Interior Minister, was blown up in Nazran on October 8. The opposition Ingushetia.org website reported that a powerful explosion took place 100 meters from the Interior Ministry building in Nazran while Itar-Tass quoted a source as saying that the explosion was an attempt on the life of Daud Medov, the deputy head of the Interior Ministry's vehicle maintenance department. According to Newsru.com, the blast was caused by an explosive device that was attached to the undercarriage of Medov's Lada Priora car and that the bomb went off when the car was parked outside his home and as Medov had left his home and gone outside. Neither Medov nor anyone else was hurt in the blast, but the car was burned out.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

234. North Caucasus Weekly: Suicide Bomber Targets Ingush Interior Minist

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
A suicide bomber attacked the motorcade of Ingush Interior Minister Musa Medov on September 30. The Moscow Times reported on October 1 that the male bomber attempted to ram a Lada hatchback packed with explosives into Medov's convoyin downtown Nazran at 8:20 a.m., local time, but the car exploded before it collided with the minister's armored Mercedessedan. According to Gazeta.ru, Ingush prosecutors said Medov and his bodyguards were unharmed, while five by standers were wounded and several houses in the vicinity of the blast were damaged. Kommersant reported on October 1 that amongthe injured were a taxi driver and his passenger who were driving by when the bomb detonated and two women living in apartment buildings nearby.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

235. North Caucasus Weekly:Opposition Website: Ingush Rebels Seize Village

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Ingushetia.ru reported on October 16 that rebel fighters had seized two villages in the republic. According to the opposition website, the militants had blocked the entrances to the villages of Muzhichi and Yandare from the Rostov-Baku federal highway and had set up their own checkpoints. Yet sources in Ingushetia's Interior Ministry called the report “disinformation,” while the republic's prosecutor, Yury Turygin, told Interfax that neither he nor the Interior Ministry nor any other republican law-enforcement bodies had received any information about “bandits” having seized villages.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

236. Sudan's Southern Kordofan Problem: The Next Darfur?

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended Sudan's generation-long North-South civil war in 2005 is at risk in Southern Kordofan state, where many of the same ingredients exist that produced the vicious Darfur conflict. Both parties to that agreement, the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), who together form the Government of National Unity in Khartoum, have been guilty of mistakes and misjudgements there as they manoeuvre for partisan advantage in advance of national elections scheduled for 2009. Any strategy for addressing the problems must recognise that time is short. Concrete progress on integration and reform is essential to address the prospect of what could be a devastating new conflict. Rapid interventions are needed, well before the national elections.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

237. North Caucasus Weekly: Rebels Reportedly Kill Dozens of Servicemen in Ingushet

Author:
Mairbek Vatchagaev
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Following the capture of the foothill villages of Muzhichi and Yandare in Ingushetia on the evening of October 16 (North Caucasus Weekly, October 16), militants from the Ingush Jamaat “Shariat” carried out another series of high-profile actions against Russian troops. According to various sources, more than 50 Russian military personnel were killed and wounded in two assaults by the militants on the Galashki Highway on October 18, which would make this the most audacious attack by the jamaat members in Ingushetia to date. According to the media reports, the attack on the Russian military motorcade took place on the Alkhasty-Surkhokhi road in Ingushetia's Nazran district at ten in the morning. According to Ingush Prosecutor General Yury Turygyn, only two soldiers were killed and five were wounded in the attack. All of them were from Interior Ministry detachments based in the village of Alkhasty (RIA Novosti, October 18) According to Turygyn, the assault was carried out by members of “illegal armed formations” with the purpose of destabilizing the situation in the region. Turygyn, however, was apparently referring to the casualties in an attack on another column of servicemen that had occurred earlier on October 18, and the Regnum News Agency quoted a source in the Interior Ministry department forIngushetia's Sunzha district as saying that all the soldiers in the column targeted in the second attack were killed except forone and that the total number killed was around 50. The surviving serviceman was transported to the Sunzha Central District Hospital, the source said (www.regnum.ru/news/1071507.html). Thus, according to the Ingush police, two attacks took place, not one, as the Ingush Prosecutor General's Office claims.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

238. Oil for Soil: Toward a Grand Bargain on Iraq and the Kurds - Middle East Report N°80

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A long-festering conflict over Kirkuk and other disputed territories is threatening to disrupt the current fragile relative peace in Iraq by blocking legislative progress and political accommodation. Two events in particular stand out: a two-month stalemate in July-September in negotiations over a provincial elections law in which Kirkuk's unresolved status was the principal obstacle and, during this period, a campaign by the Iraqi army in and around the Kurdish-controlled disputed district of Khanaqin. To avoid a breakdown over the issue of Kirkuk, the current piecemeal approach should be discarded in favour of a grand bargain involving all core issues: Kirkuk and other disputed territories, revenue sharing and the hydrocarbons law, as well as federalism and constitutional revisions. Despite some progress, Iraq's legislative agenda, promoted by the U.S. in order to capitalise on recent security gains, is bogged down. The main culprit is a dispute over territories claimed by the Kurds as historically belonging to Kurdistan - territories that contain as much as 13 per cent of Iraq's proven oil reserves. This conflict reflects a deep schism between Arabs and Kurds that began with the creation of modern Iraq after World War I; has simmered for decades, marked by intermittent conflict and accommodation; and was revitalised due to the vacuum and resulting opportunities generated by the Baath regime's demise in 2003. In its ethnically-driven intensity, ability to drag in regional players such as Turkey and Iran and potentially devastating impact on efforts to rebuild a fragmented state, it matches and arguably exceeds the Sunni-Shiite divide that spawned the 2005-2007 sectarian war. Stymied in their quest to incorporate disputed territories into the Kurdistan region by constitutional means, Kurdish leaders have signalled their intent to hold politics in Baghdad hostage to their demands. At the same time, the Iraqi government's growing military assertiveness is challenging the Kurds' de facto control over these territories. Rising acrimony and frustration are jeopardising the current relative peace, undermining prospects for national unity and, in the longer term, threatening Iraq's territorial integrity. Rather than items that can be individually and sequentially addressed, Iraq's principal conflicts - concerning oil, disputed territories, federalism and constitutional revisions - have become thoroughly interwoven. Federalism cannot be implemented without agreement on how the oil industry will be managed and revenues will be distributed. Progress on a federal hydrocarbons law and a companion revenue-sharing law is inconceivable without agreement on the disposition of disputed territories that boast major oil fields, such as Kirkuk. And the constitution review has faltered over failure to settle all those questions, the solutions to which will need to be reflected in amendments reached by consensus. How to move forward? If there is a way out, it lies in a comprehensive approach that takes into account the principal stakeholders' core requirements. A sober assessment of these requirements suggests a possible package deal revolving around a fundamental "oil-for-soil" trade-off: in exchange for at least deferring their exclusive claim on Kirkuk for ten years, the Kurds would obtain demarcation and security guarantees for their internal boundary with the rest of Iraq, as well as the right to manage and profit from their own mineral wealth. Such a deal would codify the significant gains the Kurds have made since they achieved limited autonomy in the wake of the 1991 Gulf War and especially after April 2003, while simultaneously respecting an Arab-Iraqi - as well as neighbouring states' - red line regarding Kirkuk. This package entails painful concessions from all sides, which they are unlikely to make without strong international involvement. The UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) has been providing technical support on a range of issues and, since late 2007, has devoted the bulk of its efforts to the question of disputed internal boundaries. It will need stronger backing from the U.S. and its allies, which have an abiding interest in Iraq's stabilisation yet have played a passive bystander role that has confused Iraqi stakeholders and encouraged them to press maximalist demands. The U.S. should make it a priority to steer Iraq's political actors toward a grand bargain they are unlikely to reach on their own and to secure its outcome through political, financial and diplomatic support. There is little time to waste. As U.S. forces are set to draw down in the next couple of years, Washington's leverage will diminish and, along with it, chances for a workable deal. This serves no one's interest. The most likely alternative to an agreement is a new outbreak of violent strife over unsettled claims in a fragmented polity governed by chaos and fear.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Oil
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

239. The Justice Dilemma in Uganda

Author:
Scott Worden
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On February 18, 2008 the Ugandan government and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) reached agreement on an accountability and reconciliation accord that would provide for prosecution in Uganda of senior LRA leaders most responsible for atrocities committed over the course of the country's 20-year long civil conflict. The agreement also provides that lower level perpetrators will be held accountable by traditional justice mechanisms indigenous to Northern Uganda, where much of the violence occurred.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

240. Uganda/Lord's Resistance Army Peace Negotiations

Author:
David Smock
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Juba, Southern Sudan – Northern Uganda is one of the world's humanitarian disaster areas. Twenty thousand have been killed and up to two million have been displaced in Internally Displaced Person (IDP) camps over the last 20 years. This havoc has been created by the notorious Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), whose agenda and purposes have remained murky. Joseph Kony, the rebel commander, asserts that the LRA political program is based on the Ten Commandments, despite the fact that the LRA routinely violates most of them.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Human Welfare, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, North Uganda, and South Sudan

241. Darfur in Context

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
Until recently, Sudan could be described as a country at war and at peace. Since gaining independence from Britain in 1956, Sudan has suffered near continual civil war and has been ruled by a series of military dictatorships. While there are many different fronts to Sudan's current conflicts, the two crises that receive the most attention from international media are the genocide in Darfur and the North-South conflict. This Africa Action report outlines current circumstances and explains the linkages and distinctions among conflict areas across Sudan and addresses a series of misperceptions and myths that have impeded an effective international response to the crisis in Darfur.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict and Genocide
Political Geography:
Britain, Africa, and Sudan

242. Insurgencies in India's Northeast: Conflict, Co-option Change

Author:
Subir Bhaumik
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Ever since the British withdrawal from South Asia in 1947, India's Northeast has been scarred by sustained separatist insurgencies, mass agitations, ethnic riots and heavy-handed state response resulting in continuous bloodletting. The land-locked region, which is linked to the India mainland by the 22 km wide Siliguri corridor in northern Bengal, borders on Bhutan, Bangladesh Myanmar and China's Tibet Autonomous Region and Nepal is not too far away.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

243. Internal Displacement, Migration, and Policy in Northeastern India

Author:
Uddipana Goswami
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The paper is divided into four sections: Migration; Illegal Migration and Policy Lacunae; Ethnic Politics and Internal Displacement; and State Responses to Internal Displacement. In the first section I discuss the colonial policy environment, altered administrative boundaries and concepts and how all this aided/abetted large-scale migrations into the Northeast. Demographic patterns were fast changing under the colonial administration's policy of importing more migrants to people a frontier region, and this approach did not lapse when a post-colonial government was ushered in.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict and Migration
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

244. Faces of Islam in Southern Thailand

Author:
Imtiyaz Yusuf
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Several commentators and analyst have talked about the on ongoing unrest in southern Thailand from the perspective of the engagement of international terrorism, security issues, center ‐ periphery relations, organized crime and the drug industry. But none of them have written about the role of religion and ethnicity in the crisis. This monograph argues that the roots of the crisis in southern Thailand lie in the role of religion viewed from the point of ethnic identity. The phenomena of ethnification of religion is very much evident in Southeast Asia where religions function along ethnic lines; here a Malay is a Muslim, a Siamese/Thai a Buddhist and a Chinese either a Christian or Taoist/Buddhist syncretic. Thus ethnoreligious constructs shape identities. Hence, it is important to look into the blending of ethnicity and religion and how the constant transformation of these two factors alter the shape of the ongoing crisis in southern Thailand.
Topic:
Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Religion, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
China, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

245. Engagement with the Muslim Community and Counterterrorism: British Lessons for the West

Author:
H.A. Hellyer
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Historians will undoubtedly record that the events of September 11th, 2001 were a turning point for policy makers and politicians in the United States of America. America faced a new kind of security threat, the response to which would spark a series of difficult chain-reactions and challenge core national values. More than six years on, America is still grappling with the question of how to respond, both domestically and internationally, to the terrorist threat.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, America, and Europe

246. Breaking the Kosovo Stalemate: Europe's Responsibility

Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The preferred strategy of the European Union (EU) and the U.S. to bring Kosovo to supervised independence through the United Nations Security Council has failed, following Russia's declared intention to veto. With Kosovo Albanians increasingly restive and likely soon to declare unilateral independence in the absence of a credible alternative, Europe risks a new bloody and destabilising conflict. To avoid chaos on its doorstep, the EU and its member states must now accept the primary responsibility for bringing Kosovo to supervised independence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

247. Sri Lanka's Muslims: Caught in the Crossfire

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Throughout much of the 25-year Sri Lankan conflict, attention has focused on the confrontation between the majority Sinhalese and the minority Tamils. The views of the country's Muslims, who are 8 per cent of the population and see themselves as a separate ethnic group, have largely been ignored. Understanding their role in the conflict and addressing their political aspirations are vital if there is to be a lasting peace settlement. Muslims need to be part of any renewed peace process but with both the government and LTTE intent on continuing the conflict, more immediate steps should be taken to ensure their security and political involvement. These include control of the Karuna faction, more responsive local and national government, improved human rights mechanisms and a serious political strategy that recognises minority concerns in the east.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Asia and Sri Lanka

248. Political Progress in Iraq During the Surge

Author:
Timothy Carney
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The military surge that was launched in February 2007 has improved the security situation in Baghdad and adjacent regions. It has curbed sectarian violence in the capital and reduced the freedom of action and the support base of insurgents and terrorists in the central governorates. The rationale for the surge was to provide an opportunity for political agreements to be negotiated among Iraqis, but political progress has been stalled and has not matched the security improvements. A political settlement is essential for sustaining the security gains and for longer- term stability. Despite the declaration of a national reconciliation plan by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki in June 2006, by the fall of 2007 only limited progress had been made toward reconciling the differences between the political groups and forging a national agenda. The dominance of sectarian political groups has fueled polarization, and the inability of the government and Parliament to adopt crucial legislation is a measure of continuing distrust between the groups. Serious political dialogue between the sect- based parties has proved difficult and the results are limited. At the same time intra-sectarian rivalries are increasing, particularly in the southern governorates, where the Sadris and the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq vie for political and economic control of the region. Iraqi institutions have lost ground in the past year. Iraqi ministers from Sunni, Shia, and secular groups have withdrawn from the cabinet, adversely affecting the performance of the government. The sectarian blocs that entered Parliament in December 2005 have lost their cohesiveness. The Shia United Iraqi Alliance has unraveled, and the Sunni Tawafuq coalition is strained. The emergence of tribal forces in Anbar governorate presents opportunities and challenges to the Sunnis and the Shia alike. As the sectarian blocs weaken and the Anbar tribes seek a political role, new alliances are beginning to emerge, and some may succeed in crossing sectarian and regional divides. The debate in Washington has been restricted to the level and duration of U.S. troop presence in Iraq. In the coming months, the debate should turn to means of supporting the political process and strengthening governance in Iraq as a path to stability. Bottom-up approaches to reconciliation and accommodation do not obviate the need for a broader political settlement. The United States should support a sustained international mediation effort led by the UN Security Council resulting in an Iraqi compact endorsed by Iraq's neighbors and the international comm unity. Iraqi efforts to develop cross-sectarian political alliances and national platforms need to be encouraged. The incorporation of the Anbar tribes into national politics is important to sustaining security gains. A competent national government in Baghdad is essential to the long-term stability of Iraq. A weak government will be unable to ensure the internal and external security of the country or manage revenues. More effort and resources are needed to strengthen the competence and effectiveness of the Iraqi government.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

249. Jamestown Foundation: August 2007

Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
A person claiming to belong to the Chechen extremist group Riyadus-Salikhin (Gardens of the Righteous) called the North Caucasus Service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty to claim responsibility for the bomb explosion that derailed the Nevsky Express passenger train traveling from Moscow to St. Petersburg on the evening of August 13, RFE/RL reported on August 15. According to the Prosecutor General's Office, the bombing, which derailed the train near the city of Novgorod, about 500 kilometers north of Moscow, and injured dozens of people, was caused by a homemade bomb equal to two kilograms of TNT.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia and Moscow

250. Chechnya Weekly: Rebels Reportedly Becoming More Active

Author:
Andrei Smirnov and Mayrbek Vachagaev
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Kavkazky Uzel reported on July 4 that the “armed formations of the separatists” have become noticeably more active in recent days, with armed clashes between the rebels and security forces taking place in Chechnya's mountains and foothills. “In Chechnya, rumors are actively being spread that in the coming months the militants may launch a series of large-scale offensive actions for the purpose of demonstrating their real capabilities,” the website wrote. “Some time ago, information appeared that the separatist leader Dokka Umarov demanded that members of the republic's law-enforcement bodies quit their jobs, promising 'amnesty' in exchange.” Kavkazky Uzel quoted a Grozny resident, identified only as Sakhab, as saying: “Several weeks ago, leaflets with an appeal from Dokka Umarov to the employees of the police force were found in various places. Apparently, they said that those policemen who do not quit their jobs soon will be destroyed. Those who 'come to their senses' were promised amnesty.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia