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5191. The US Economic Outlook

Author:
Martin Neil Baily and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Oil prices have risen and are expected to remain high. Slow job and wage growth result in slow income growth. Low interest rates kept housing and auto sales strong after 2000 – borrowing future growth. No new stimulus from monetary or fiscal policy. The Iraq war and the terrorism threat may be a drag on confidence. Because 9/11 did not have significant macroeconomic effects, the impact of the war and terrorism seems to be mostly on oil prices No new stimulus from monetary or fiscal policy.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

5192. The Chinese Economy: Prospects and Key Policy Issues

Author:
Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5193. Global Economic Prospects: Slower But Still Solid Growth in 2005; Worries About Growth and Inflation for 2006

Author:
Michael Mussa
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
After surging to the highest growth rate in a generation, world real GDP is set to slow from a rate of just over 5 percent for 2004 to about 4 percent for 2005 and a tad slower for 2006. The economic slowdowns in several important economies in the second half of last year, including much of continental Europe and Japan, already make it clear that year-over-year growth will slow for 2005. But the continued strong growth of domestic demand in other countries, most notably the United States and China, virtually assures that global growth this year will not fall below potential.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Europe, Israel, and East Asia

5194. Will Globalization Survive?

Author:
Martin Wolf
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Ours is not the first age of globalization. The decades before the First World War were remarkably similar to our own era. Under the aegis of the United Kingdom and stimulated by a host of technological advances, the world enjoyed an era of liberal trade, remarkably free movement of people, and almost entirely free movement of capital. The world also enjoyed an unprecedented rise in prosperity. According to the economic historian, Angus Maddison, real GDP per head rose at a rate of 1.3 percent a year in the world as a whole between 1870 and 1913. This is not far short of the improvement of the past three decades. As table 1 shows, only Asia and Africa, both victims of colonialism, failed to share in the rising prosperity.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, and Asia

5195. What Bond Markets Can Learn from Argentina

Author:
Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Argentina has completed the largest and most complex sovereign bond restructuring in history. Before the debt exchange, it owed about $82 billion in principal and $20 billion in past due interest. Hundreds of thousands of creditors held 150 kinds of defaulted instruments issued in six currencies under the laws of eight jurisdictions. Creditors owed just over 76% of the total, or $62 billion, got $35 billion in new performing bonds. Other performing debt includes $40 billion in domestic and about $30 billion in multi-lateral obligations. Argentina left behind almost $25 billion in defaulted principal and interest.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

5196. China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy and Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
According to a popular argument put forward by three Deutsche Bank economists (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber, here after DFG), one needn't worry about the sustainability of either the large US current account deficit or the undervalued exchange rates of a group of Asian economies (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber 2003, 2004a, 2004b, 2004c; Folkerts-Landau 2004). In their view, the United States and the Asian economies have entered into an implicit contract—the so-called revived Bretton Woods system (hereafter BW2)—that can comfortably carry on for another decade or two, with significant net benefits to both parties.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

5197. Outsourcing and Offshoring: Pushing the European Model Over the Hill, Rather Than Off the Cliff!

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Once again a specter is haunting Europe—not in the shape that Marx saw it but in the form of outsourcing and offshoring, which allegedly will empty Europe of the highly skilled high-paying jobs of the future. This working paper argues that the specter needs to be dispelled. Today, Europe faces challenges in the form of low productivity growth and low labor utilization/high unemployment. Outsourcing and offshoring, far from being a blight, are powerful tools to help solve the productivity growth problem and may also—provided the right structural reforms are implemented—assist in solving Europe's low employment problem.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Third World
Political Geography:
Europe

5198. The Potential of International Policy Coordination

Author:
John Williamson
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
International economic policy coordination is an idea that is not nowadays at the top of the international agenda. The usual idea these days is that if each country pursues its own national interests, then the world will do as well as possible: There are no exploitable bargains of the type "it will pay [both][all] of us to change policies simultaneously even though if one of us made the change individually we would suffer" available. Even if there are no opportunities of that type (let us call them type A) available, there might still in principle be the chance of gaining by subscribing to a set of rules: Country X might expect to gain more over time from countries Y and Z respecting the rules than it would lose at other times from being obliged to modify its behavior according to the rules. Let us call these type B gains.
Topic:
International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and East Asia

5199. Reflections

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
My reflections on the new operating procedures that were adopted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on October 6, 1979, derive from my responsibilities at the Federal Reserve Board at the time. Those responsibilities included preparation of the international component of the staff forecast, analysis of economic and financial developments in other countries, and assisting the Chairman and members of the Board (primarily Henry C. Wallich) with international responsibilities in connection with their attendance at international meetings. Therefore, mine was and is an international perspective. I was not involved in the design of the new operating procedures, although I was informed that the project was under way.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
United States

5200. Managing Energy Insecurity

Author:
John Browne
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
It is great to be in Washington again and a privilege to be invited to speak here for the first time. You asked me to talk about energy security, and I think the basic question is whether, to use the words of one of your recent papers, there is "a gathering storm" around energy supply, and what, if anything, should and could be done to avert that storm.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Washington