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101. The Extraordinary Gamble: How the Yugoslav Tribunal’s Indictment of Slobodan Milošević During the Kosovo War Affected Peace Efforts

Author:
Jacqueline R. McAllister
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
On 24 May 1994, the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY or Yugoslav Tribunal) made history by becoming the first international court to indict a sitting head of state: Yugoslav President Slobodan Milošević. Since Milošević’s rise to power roughly a decade before, forces either directly or indirectly under his control had unleashed a reign of terror first in Croatia, then in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and finally in Kosovo. Indicting Milošević was no small feat: he did everything in his power to cover his tracks. Moreover, in order to secure crucial evidence (e.g., intelligence and satellite imagery linking Serb forces to crime sites) and the support necessary to actually put Milošević on trial, the ICTY required the backing of Western powers, which—until the Kosovo War in 1999—viewed Milošević as a vital, yet unsavory guarantor of peace in the region. Reactions to the indictment were mixed. While the Yugoslav Tribunal’s supporters heralded the indictment as a legal triumph that brought Milošević to his knees, its critics emphasized that, at best, the indictment was irrelevant and, at worst, an extraordinary gamble that had the potential to thwart an end to hostilities.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Law, Humanitarian Intervention, and Ethnic Cleansing
Political Geography:
Europe, Yugoslavia, and Central Europe

102. Gender Based Violence In The Kosovo War

Author:
Atifete Jahjaga
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Our first question is about the ethnic cleansing that happened during the Kosovo Campaign. It is estimated that 20,000 Albanian men and women experienced sexual violence between 1998 and 2000. Many survivors of sexual violence have been hesitant to speak up, and there were also many mass killings that are only now being discovered. How, in a general sense, did you approach these issues as president given the lack of information, and how has the lack of information made the justice process more difficult?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Law, Humanitarian Intervention, and Ethnic Cleansing
Political Geography:
Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Armenia

103. How We Succeeded In Kosovo

Author:
Wesley K. Clark
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The countries of Southeast Europe contain numerous ethnic groups that are united by shared geography but divided by language, history, and culture. These nations are located at the crossroads of Asia and Europe, and, for centuries, were subjected to Turkish invasion, Austro-Hungarian resistance, Russian Pan-Slavism, Venetian culture along the Adriatic coast, and the respective weights of Islam, Roman Catholicism, and the Eastern Orthodox Church. Melding these groups into the state of Yugoslavia at the 1919 Versailles Peace Conference proved only a temporary solution: with the death of Yugloslav President Josip Tito in 1980, the fractionating forces became dominant, and by 1991, Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, and Bosnia were each struggling to secede or survive against a Serb-dominated Serbia-Montenegro.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Humanitarian Intervention, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

104. Oral History And The Rwandan Genocide

Author:
Erin Jessee
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Erin Jessee is Lord Kelvin Adam Smith Research Fellow in History at the University of Glasgow. She has over a decade of experience conducting oral historical and ethnographic fieldwork in confict-afected settings, particularly in Rwanda, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Uganda. She is the author of Negotiating Genocide in Rwanda: Te Politics of History, which was published in Palgrave Macmillan’s Studies in Oral History series in 2017. She has also published several articles in notable journals such as Memory Studies, Conflict and Society, History in Africa, Oral History Review, and Forensic Science International, among others.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Genocide, International Cooperation, International Law, Humanitarian Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Rwanda and Global Focus

105. Unsettled Memory: Genocide Memorial Sites In Rwanda

Author:
Amanda F. Grzyb
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In March 2012, the errant roots of a nearby tree broke through one of the mass graves at the top of the Bisesero memorial, a remote site in the western province where Rwandans have laid to rest approximately 50,000 victims of the 1994 genocide. With material support from district leaders, genocide survivors from the Twumba sector labored for weeks to remove approximately 10,000 bodies from the water-damaged tomb. They put the remains in large wooden coffins on the floor beneath thousands of skulls and bones stacked on the shelves of a corrugated metal shed where they had been awaiting incorporation into the unfinished memorial exhibit for more than a decade. Attempts to repair the tomb caused additional structural damage and eventually the remaining bodies also had to be removed, again by local survivors.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, Sectarian violence, Humanitarian Intervention, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

106. Lessons From A Life In Rwandan Politics

Author:
Theogene Rudasingwa
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Theogene Rudasingwa is former Ambassador of Rwanda to the United States. He previously held positions of secretary-general of the ruling party, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), and chief of staff for President Paul Kagame. Dr. Rudasingwa is a graduate of Makerere University Medical School in Uganda and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in the United States.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Genocide, International Affairs, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

107. End U.S. Military Support for the Saudi-Led War in Yemen

Author:
Enea Gjoza and Benjamin H. Friedman
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
The Yemeni Civil War is in its fourth year, and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and their allies are not close to a victory over the Houthi rebels.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Military Spending, Military Intervention, and Peace
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and North Africa

108. Disentangling from Syria's Civil War

Author:
Benjamin H. Friedman and Justin Logan
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
The United States intervened in Syria’s civil war in two ways: (1) anti-Assad efforts—through aid to rebels to help foster regime change and with airpower, troops and support to a militia—and (2) anti-ISIS efforts—through aid to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to destroy the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate. The first mission was an ill-considered failure, the second a success.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Military Intervention, and Peace
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iran, and Syria

109. Exiting Afghanistan: Ending America's Longest War

Author:
Benjamin H. Friedman
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
The war in Afghanistan—now America’s longest at nearly 18 years—quickly achieved its initial aims: (1) to destroy the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization and (2) to punish the Taliban government that gave it haven. However, Washington extended the mission to a long and futile effort of building up the Afghan state to defeat the subsequent Taliban insurgency.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Asia

110. THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE UNITED NATIONS POLICE TO THE PROTECTION OF CIVILIANS IN SOUTH SUDAN

Author:
Josias Marcos de Resende Silva
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:
On 8 July 2011, the Security Council established the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) to consolidate peace and security, and to help implement conditions for development. On 15 December 2013, violence broke out in the capital Juba and spread to several other locations, resulting in a countrywide armed conflict. The crisis had disastrous consequences for human rights in many parts of the country, especially in areas of greatest military confrontation. During the hostilities, UNMISS estimates that thousands of people were killed. Both parties to the conflict failed to comply with international humanitarian and human rights law directing attacks on civilians based on their ethnicity. As a result, a large number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) sought refuge in UNMISS bases.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Conflict, and Police
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

111. Transitional Government in Post-Conflict Yemen

Author:
Rafat Al-Akhali, Osamah Al-Rawhani, and Anthony Biswell
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
This policy brief offers recommendations to maximize the effectiveness of governance in post-conflict Yemen – whatever the composition or structure of the government. It presents three case studies on government models previously introduced in Yemen, Tunisia and Lebanon after periods of instability. These case studies offer useful lessons on the challenges, risks and opportunities of forming transitional governments in post-conflict contexts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, Government, Peacekeeping, Transitional Justice, Conflict, Peace, and Transition
Political Geography:
Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

112. What Is the Endgame in Syria?

Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
World Politics Review
Abstract:
What does victory on President Bashar al-Assad’s brutal terms look like? How has the rise and fall of the Islamic State changed Syria’s political map? How will U.S. President Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from northeastern Syria and the subsequent Turkish invasion of the area change the situation?And what about reconstruction, let alone reconciliation? This WPR report provides a comprehensive look at those questions and several others that will determine what’s to come in Syria, with impacts far beyond the Middle East.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Proxy War, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

113. Migration and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: The Effect of Returning Refugees on Export Performance in the Former Yugoslavia

Author:
Dany Bahar, Hillel Rapoport, Cem Özgüzel, and Andreas Hauptmann
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
During the early 1990s Germany offered temporary protection to over 600,000 Yugoslavian refugees fleeing war. By 2000, many had been repatriated. We exploit this natural experiment to investigate the role of migrants in post-conflict reconstruction in the former Yugoslavia, using exports as outcome. Using confidential social security data to capture intensity of refugee workers to German industries –and exogenous allocation rules for asylum seekers within Germany as instrument– we find an elasticity of exports to return migration between 0.08 to 0.24. Our results are stronger in knowledge-intensive industries and for workers in occupations intensive in analytical and managerial skills.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Political Economy, Migration, Refugee Issues, Refugees, and Exports
Political Geography:
Europe, Yugoslavia, and Germany

114. Addressing the Threat of Violent Extremism in Southern Africa

Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
On 27 November 2019, the EU Delegations to Mozambique and South Africa, the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD) and the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) co-organised a seminar in Pretoria on ‘Addressing the threat of violent extremism in Southern Africa’. The event was financed by the Service of Foreign Policy Instruments (FPI) and also supported by the Finnish Presidency of the Council of the European Union, both having also contributed to this report. The seminar was a first of its kind in Southern Africa, bringing together the diplomatic community, United Nations agencies, government officials, practitioners, policy makers and researchers to discuss the emergence of violent extremism in the region and the necessary measures to combat this phenomenon. Specifically, the seminar provided an opportunity to further understand the drivers and root causes of violent extremism in Southern Africa through a regional approach that takes into consideration context specificities, while also acknowledging transnational spill-over factors and linkages with organised crime and illicit trafficking. Discussions placed a special emphasis on Northern Mozambique, given the risk of the region becoming a hotspot for radical extremism in Southern Africa, and the impacts an escalation into a full-blown security crisis could have on political stability and social and economic development in the country and the entire region. The final panel explored conflict sensitive prevention and mitigation strategies, which could be a basis for EU’s engagement with governments and regional organisations, underpinning future EU assistance. This report summarises the main takeaways of the conference and makes recommendations for follow-up actions, including supporting a regional dialogue within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the EU on how to tackle the growing threat of violent extremism in the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Violent Extremism, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:
South Africa

115. Traditional Methods of Conflict Resolution

Author:
Jude Nsom Waindim
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Long before Africa was colonised, and way beyond the advent of slave trade, African societies had institutional mechanisms as well as cultural sources to uphold the values of peace, tolerance, solidarity and respect for, and of, one another. These structures were responsible for “peace education, confidence-building, peacemaking, peacebuilding, conflict monitoring, conflict prevention, conflict management, and conflict resolution”.1 If these mechanisms were effective in handling and managing conflicts among the people, it was largely because they reflected the sociopolitical orientation of the African people, addressing all the social, political and economic conflicts among a people who lived a communal way of life. Thus, it was customary as well as common currency to happen upon people sitting down informally to discuss and agree on important issues.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict, Peace, and Tradition
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

116. "The Ambivalence of the Sacred": Religion, Conflict Resolution, and Peacebuilding in Northern Nigeria, 2000–2015

Author:
Jacinta Chimaka Nwaka
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Nigeria is one of a few African countries where religion has largely been associated with conflict. The dominance of the two major Abrahamic reli- gions—Islam and Christianity—on each side of the divide has made religion one of the more potent factors in the contention for political, economic, and identity spaces in the country. Although the use of religion for identity con- struction, power legitimization, and economic achievement characterized the colonial and immediate post-colonial period, it was not until the late 1970s that religion became highly disruptive, with the onset of religious vi- olence into the country.1 While these eruptions appeared to be restricted to the core northern cities, the re-democratization process associated with the post-Cold War period generated new tensions as politicians mobilized group identities for contested positions. Thus, other northern Nigerian cities that were hitherto known for peace became susceptible to violence. It was in the wake of this development that Plateau and Kaduna states became the epicenter of violent clashes of a religious nature. Various strategies have been adopted by both governmental and non-governmental bodies to ad- dress these conflicts. While some of them have been successful interven- tions, others have failed to stem the tide of conflict. Can religion, which is claimed to be a factor in these conflicts, become part of the solution? The current study seeks to identify the role(s) of faith-based actors in conflict resolution and peacebuilding in Plateau and Kaduna States of Northern Ni- geria between 2000 and 2015. The aim is to explain the conditions that have accounted for the success or failure of their intervention. Beginning with Johnston and Sampson, who identified religion as a missing dimension in statecraft, various authors have highlighted numerous ways through which religious actors can have a positive influence on the peace process.2 According to Johnston and Sampson and Appleby, religious actors are better positioned than politicians to reach out to local and regional ac- tors.3 This is because they are often believed to be in possession of moral and emotional qualifications as well as professional approaches that com- mand the respect and confidence of the parties to a conflict. In his study of religious actors in peace process, Weingardt believes that while all actors involved in conflict resolution and peacebuilding ideally have these qual- ities, they are more common with religious actors.4 He further explained the three dimensions of the confidence and trust which faith-based actors enjoy from the conflict parties. The existence of religious thinking in all cul- tures can be used to justify the call for peace and non-violence. Religious actors are often seen as those who go beyond mere resolution of conflict to address issues of morality, reconciliation, forgiveness, and responsibility, which underlie conflict resolution and are often perceived as those moti- vated by selfless interest. Though these may be at the level of perception rather than reality, Weingardt is of the opinion that such perceptions are informed by the respect generally accorded to religion and religious val- ues.5 The importance of legitimacy and leverage was equally underscored by Aroua and Bercovitch and Kadayici-Orellana, who assert that religious leaders with deep understanding of religious beliefs and ideals are better, placed to promote inter-religious dialogue by transferring codes from one value system to the other.6 In some cases, their influence over conflicting parties, or at least one of them, may become the basis for opening a com- munication channel. Other scholars further emphasize the role of religious organizations in pro- moting peace. According to Smock, they are very effective in delivering aid and development projects, which is considered an important aspect of the peace process.7 Their effectiveness, as observed by Bouta, Kadayici-Orel- lana and Abu-Nimer derives not only from the trust and confidence they command, but also because faith communities are less expensive, having with them, in most cases, a network of volunteers who may not just be committed but who are also ready to make enormous sacrifices informed by their religious beliefs and values.8 Although aid and development are at the pragmatic level, they help immeasurably in addressing the root causes of conflict.9 In addition to what religious actors can do, available literature points to several conflicts that have been mediated by faith-based actors. Among the outstanding cases are: the successful mediation in Mozam- bique by the Rome-based Community of Saint Egido, which helped to end the country’s civil war; and the Lome Peace Agreement of 1999 through the instrumentality of the Inter-Religious Council of Sierra Leone; (2001).10 There have also been cases where mediation by religious organizations in peace processes was not successful. For example, Saint Egido failed in its effort to resolve the conflicts in Algeria, Burundi, and the Democratic Re- public of Congo.11 Religious leaders in Liberia were unsuccessful in their attempts to intervene in the country’s first civil war.12 In the widespread pro- tests and riots that followed the cartoon published by a Danish newspaper, Jyllands-Posten, seen as depicting Prophet Mohammed as a terrorist in 2005, an attempt by the Catholic Relief Services (CRS) to initiate interreli- gious dialogue in Maiduguri also failed. Despite ever-growing interest in the field of faith-based actors in peace- building, one crucial question has remained unanswered: under which con- ditions can religion contribute to peace? Bercovitch has called attention to the need to go beyond the discussion of what success in conflict interven- tion means or may mean to understand the factors that could potentially contribute to such success. This view was re-echoed by Susan Hayward, who noted that “there is a pressing need for greater monitoring and eval- uation of religious peacebuilding work...to understand better which inter- ventions led by whom, and in which situation have the greater effect.”13 The need to establish the constructive role of religion in the peace process has become crucial in the present era, when those involved in the negotiation and peacebuilding processes continue to marginalize religious actors, often considering them to have no constructive role.14 This study is located within this existing scholarship. It uses data from field-based primary sources in qualitative research - in-depth interview (IDI), Focused Group Discussion (FGD), official documents and extant secondary source materials, to explore the conditions that explain the successful or failed interventions of faith- based actors in three outstanding conflicts in Plateau and Kaduna States namely: the Jos and Yelwa conflicts in Plateau State and the Kaduna conflict in Kaduna State between 2000 and 2015.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Religion, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Nigeria and Africa

117. Diplomacy, the Eritrea-Ethiopia Peace Deal and its Implications

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
On 5 June 2018, Ethiopia’s ruling coalition; Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) under its new leader, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared that it shall accept the terms of a peace agreement with neighbouring Eritrea. The announcement came as a shock both to the international community and analysts who follow politics in the Horn of Africa. Beneath the declaration were years of silent diplomatic undertakings which have been given relatively lesser attention as the charismatic nature of Ethiopia’s new Prime Minister has taken centre stage. This Brief shall emphasize the role of diplomacy in the build-up to the announcement as well as the unique nature of Prime Minister Ahmed; in doing so, it is intrinsic to capture the historical context of the border conflict, an alternative explanation to diplomacy as well as the rewards of the peace deal and its challenges (implications). The Brief concludes by making a case for diplomacy as it still remains a viable factor in terms of conflict resolution in Africa.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

118. Egyptian Mediation in Gaza is a Strategic Asset by its Own Right

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It is in Israel’s interest to solidify the Egyptian role in Gaza, in the context of “conflict management” as a governing policy concept. Egyptian participation in the efforts to stabilize the situation in Gaza serves as an important component in the vital Egypt-Israel relationship. It also helps erode Hamas’ pretensions of Jihad.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Terrorism, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, Peace, Hamas, Strategic Stability, and Mediation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt

119. The Israel-Jordan Treaty at 25

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It is a crucial accord, but needs attention and maintenance.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Jordan

120. Beyond the Binary: Securing Peace and Promoting Justice after Conflict

Author:
Nelson Camilo Sánchez, Rodrigo Uprimny, Howard Varney, Michael Schwarz, Tatiana Rincón-Covelli, Claudio Nash, Tara Van Ho, and Oscar Parra
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
The main objective of Beyond the Binary is to place on record the need to formulate answers to the question of the role that criminal action and punishment should play in negotiated political transitions from war to peace. Discussions on the meaning and scope of concepts such as justice, accountability, and victim satisfaction continue to be fervent topics in specialized circles of what is now known as “the transitional justice field,” and in societies suffering from mass violence. Instead of solving the practical and theoretical dilemmas of these interpretative disputes, the experience and knowledge accumulated over the more than three decades that this field has been in existence have served only to deepen the debates and to adapt more of these discussions to new and constantly-changing scenarios and contexts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Latin America and Global Focus

121. Participation in Transitional Justice Measures

Author:
María Paula Saffon and Viviana Tacha
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
This book offers a comparative and critic study about the experiences of participation in the transitional justice. From a detailed study of 35 experiences of transitional justice corresponding to 20 countries, the document explores the different stages who have allowed to the victims and the civil society take part in the promotion, adoption and implementation of truth, justice, reparations and no repetition guarantees steps.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Transitional Justice, and Justice
Political Geography:
Latin America

122. Sudan demonstrations between ad-hoc economic measures and far-reaching political changes

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The conflict in Sudan is now between two competing visions: where Bashir believes no political change is needed to address the crisis, the protestors are adamant that it can only be resolved with his departure. The question is which of these two positions will be victorious.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Sudan

123. Spring 2019 edition of Contemporary Eurasia

Author:
Ruben Safrastyan
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contemporary Eurasia
Institution:
Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia
Abstract:
TRANSFORMATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST 1. LILIT HARUTYUNYAN PALESTINIAN REFUGEE CAMPS IN LEBANON: GOVERNANCE AND VIOLENCE .............................................................................. 5 2. LEVON HOVSEPYAN DIMINISHING INSTITUTIONAL AUTONOMY OF TURKISH ARMED FORCES: IS POLITICIZATION AND TRANSFORMATION OF ITS INSTITUTIONAL IDENTITY ON THE WAY? ............................................................................................. 20 3. ARAKS PASHAYAN SAUDI ARABIA ON THE ROAD TO MODERNIZATION: REALITY OR MYTH?. .................................................................................... 34 SMALL STATES BETWEEN GREAT POWERS 4. MAXIMILIAN OHLE, RICHARD J. COOK, ZHAOYING HAN & RYSBEK MAMAZHANOV CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE: WHAT IS BISHKEK’S HEDGING STRATAGEM? ................................................................................ 45 5. BENIAMIN MAILYAN IMPERATIVES OF GEORGIAN DIPLOMACY AND THE COOPERATION OF TBILISI AND BEIJING ................................. 63 CONFLICT RESOLUTION 6. YULONG DAI STRATEGIES ON TERRITORIAL ACQUISITION- A CASE STUDY ON THE PEDRA BRANCA DISPUTE ........................................... 76 4 7. NAREK SUKIASYAN TERRITORIAL AUTONOMY AND SECESSION AS STRATEGIES OF CONFLICT MANAGEMENT: CASE OF NAGORNO KARABAKH .................................................................................... 90 FIELD PROJECT RESULTS 8. BEATA BOEHM THE UN “SOCIAL RECONSTRUCTION PROGRAMME” IN UNPA SECTOR WEST, CROATIA ............................................... 104 BOOK REVIEW MATTHEW CROSSTON CHINA'S ONE BELT, ONE ROAD INITIATIVE AND ARMENIA by MHER SAHAKYAN ................................................................................ 126
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, United Nations, Governance, Armed Forces, Violence, Modernization, and Palestinians
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, Armenia, Saudi Arabia, Georgia, Lebanon, and Nagorno-Karabakh

124. Palestine and the Arab–Israeli Conflict: 100 Years of Regional Relevance and International Failure

Author:
Karim Makdisi
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This paper asserts that the Arab–Israeli conflict, and in particular the question of Palestine, has been the major issue of regional concern across the Middle East for over a century. It claims that the failure to resolve the question of Palestine will continue to impact on the region’s stability and its geopolitical dynamics and to shape popular opinion while limiting Arab leaders’ options. It first situates the Arab–Israeli conflict as a core regional issue in historical context – which is crucial for understanding where we are today – before critically reviewing the Oslo “peace process” and its failure to deliver a just and sustainable peace within the framework of a “two-state solution”. It suggests that this failure has resulted in the ramping up of lingering regional problems (e.g. southern Lebanon, the Golan Heights, refugees and in Palestine itself) and the rise of new challenges and frameworks (e.g. the Resistance Axis and the BDS movement). It concludes that the time has come for the international community – including the European Union, which has contributed to the failure of the two-state solution – to consider alternative paradigms and actions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Refugees, Syrian War, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria

125. Enhancing Peacekeeping Training Through Cooperation

Author:
Adriana Erthal Abdenur, Giovanna Kuele, and Ariane Francisco
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
There is growing recognition at the UN and among member states that peacekeeping must be made more effective, especially in face of major budget cuts and wavering leadership by traditional actors. Against this backdrop, how can member states improve the quality of pre-deployment and mission preparation for UN peacekeeping? This policy brief focuses on one area in which innovation has become more urgent than ever: enhancing the effectiveness of peacekeeping through better training. More specifically, we analyze the emerging configurations, innovations, and challenges of international cooperation for peacekeeping training centers (PTCs), drawing on the case of Latin America.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Peace Studies, Regional Cooperation, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Training, and Peace
Political Geography:
Latin America

126. Gender and Mediation in Guinea-Bissau

Author:
Adriana Erthal Abdenur
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
On July 10, 2017, the President of Guinea Bissau, José Mário Vaz, met politician Domingos Simões Pereira, who had served as Prime Minister from 2014 to August 2015. Although Pereira remained head of the country’s major political party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cabo Verde (PAIGC), he had been dismissed (along with the entire cabinet) by the president in August 2015 during a power struggle between the two men. In a public statement, Vaz had justified the dismissal by referring to a “breach of trust. ” For two years following this event, Vaz and Pereira had refused to speak to each other over differences regarding the implementation of the Conakry Accord, which sought to address some of the root causes of the country’s recurring political instability. Given the personal acrimony involved, as well as political differences, the meeting between Vaz and Pereira came as something of a surprise to observers. Yet behind the scenes, a small group of women facilitators had worked intensely for months to bring the two men in the same room. The meeting resulted from their persistent yet discreet efforts to help lessen tensions around the impasse by promoting dialogue among the key actors. This policy brief addresses the origins and development of the Group of Women Facilitators (Grupo de Mulheres Facilitatoras – GMF), focusing on the period from May to November 2017. Although the brief does not offer a systematic evaluation of the initiative, the general impact of the GMF during these six months on the Conakry Agreement debates and, more broadly, on Guinea-Bissau’s political scene are assessed in light of the objectives the group set out for itself in May. The analysis draws on a combination of desk review of policy documents from the Guinea-Bissau government, major international organizations such as the UN and ECOWAS, and civil society entities in GuineaBissau, as well as semi-structured interviews with group members and other stakeholders carried out in Bissau in November 2017.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Gender Issues, Peacekeeping, Women, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea-Bissau

127. Victims and press after the war

Author:
Vivian Newman Pont, Maria Paula Ángel, and María Ximena Dávila
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
The drive to conduct this research was born out of the tension that developed on May of 2017 in the context of the journalistic coverage of the exhumations of those who died in the Bojayá massacre. Thus, this document has the purpose of asking and answering, from a socio-legal perspective, the following question: How can the events related to the armed conflict and to the transition to peace be narrated without violating the right to privacy of the victims? Or, how can a journalist record a dramatic event or recount an injuste that moves readers while respecting the limits of the private lives of the victims? To answer the question, this document examines the tensions between rights that can arise out of narrating the transition to peace as part of the journalistic profession, with the hope that the conclusion set forth is valid not only for the Bojayá case, but also in future transition years, as both victims and society in general benefit from a free and responsible press and the respect for private lives.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, War on Drugs, Freedom of Expression, Peace, Repression, and The Press
Political Geography:
Colombia

128. Searching for a Historic Agreement between Serbs & Albanians on Kosovo: From Ambiguities to Clarity

Author:
Dimitris A. Moschopoulos
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The paper takes as starting point the call by President Vucic of Serbia for a dialogue on the future of Kosovo with a view to reaching a historic agreement between Serbs and Albanians that would help his country deal with the Kosovo issue and would make it possible for it to secure a future in the European Union. The author attempts an assessment of various efforts for settling the dispute between Serbia and Kosovo, including the Ahtisaari Plan of 2007 and the Brussels Dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina currently going on, and tries to clarify some ambiguities and misunderstandings still prevailing about basic parameters of the conflict and of the European integration of the two sides. An analysis of the principles set by Mr. Vucic to guide the debate between Serbs and Albanians, namely that (a) Serbia does not covet what doesn’t belong to her and will not relinquish what belongs to her, and (b) the protection of the Serbian religious and cultural heritage in Kosovo is of paramount importance to Serbia, leads to the conclusion that the envisaged agreement should have (a) Serbia recognize that it does not own Kosovo’s statehood, which rightfully belongs to Kosovo, and (b) Kosovo accord an exceptionalism status to the Serbian religious and cultural heritage in its territory. The author further argues that the ideal agreement between the two sides turns out to also be a possible one.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Religion, Treaties and Agreements, and Culture
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

129. Looking into Eurasia - A review of 2017: the year in politics

Author:
Anne De Tinguy, Bayram Balci, David Cadier, Isabelle Facon, Clémentine Fauconnier, Marie-Hélène Mandrillon, Anaïs Marin, Dominique Menu, and Ioulia Shukan
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Looking into Eurasia : the year in politics provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stake
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Economics, Globalization, Human Rights, Nationalism, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Territorial Disputes, Global Markets, Finance, Europeanization, Memory, and Borders
Political Geography:
Russia, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus, and European Union

130. Taking stock of international law responses to resource wars

Author:
Lys Kulamadayil
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
In the last 20 years, a significant body of literature has evolved around the phenomenon of resource wars. The term “resource war” is used to describe different linkages between natural resources and conflict. It refers to: (1) conflicts that are fought over access and control of scare, or valuable resources; (2) conflicts sustained through the trade with resources; (3) conflicts that involve the looting of the natural resources by an occupying power, and finally; (4) conflicts where the destruction of the environment or of industrial facilities serving resource exploitation is used as a strategy of warfare. Resource wars certainly have diverse legal implications, yet international law norms have primarily developed in response to the following sets of issues.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, Natural Resources, Conflict, and Law of Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
United States and Sierra Leone

131. To Achieve Lasting Security, Invest in Young Peacebuilders

Author:
Ghazal Keshavarzian
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Elevate Children Funders Group
Abstract:
Young people are often among the most affected by conflict. But to engage with them solely as victims or perpetrators of war obscures the vital role they play in peacebuilding, writes Ghazal Keshavarzian of Elevate Children Funders Group and Catherine Thompson of Peace and Security Funders Group.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Youth, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

132. Ako-na-Uche versus Nzogbu-nzogbu: Interrogating the Rupture between Igbo Elite and their Lumpen in Igbo Nationalism

Author:
Chikodiri Nwangwu
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
Post-war Igbo ethno-nationalism has witnessed two distinct but interconnected generations. Both of them emerged as a response to the ineffective and objectionable implementation of post-war peace-building initiatives as well as the progressive victimisation of the Igbo since the end of the Nigerian Civil War in 1970. While the first generation is championed and dominated by conservative Igbo petty bourgeoisie, the second is revolutionary and commonly associated with populist youth-led lumpen neo-Biafran separatist movements. In line with the philosophy of akona-uche, the former seeks mainstream inclusivism through democratic and non-confrontational approach in its response to the perceived widespread victimisation of the Igbo. On the contrary, the latter is inspired by the principle of nzogbu-nzogbu and seeks radical separatism as the most sustainable solution to the Igbo question in Nigeria. The reinvention of the nzogbu-nzogbu approach to Igbo nationalism in 1999 has attracted substantial public and scholarly attention. However, extant studies are mainly awash with explanations of the recurrent agitation for Biafra. There has not been any systematic investigation of how the fissure between the lumpen and aristocrats (Oha-na-Eze) of Igbo extraction undermines the pursuit of Igbo nationalism. Using the Marxist social class analysis, the study found that the Igbo question will remain a wild goose chase until the contradictions in the material conditions of the Igbo petty bourgeoisie and their masses are conscientiously harmonised.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Nationalism, Peacekeeping, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

133. Southern African anchor state: A renewed strategic commitment to South African conflict management as a central function of smart power

Author:
Priyal Singh
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This paper considers the potential future role of South Africa as an anchor state in Africa, whose legitimacy and credibility – in spite of domestic constraints – is underwritten by a strategic commitment to maintaining regional peace and security. To achieve this, the paper draws upon the “hard” and “soft” power dichotomy first alluded to by Joseph Nye, to frame an understanding of current South African international relations against a conceptual backdrop largely influenced by liberal institutionalism – as well as certain constructivist propositions, to a lesser extent. The paper considers three distinct periods in the evolution of the country’s foreign policy thinking, before discussing the most significant aspects of the current international peace and security order from the perspective of a system facing fundamental ontological change, and one which subsequently necessitates new approaches and strategies by international stakeholders. Finally, the paper puts forward an argument that privileges the idea of a renewal of aspirational South African leadership in the region. This is specifically premised on a central commitment to conflict management and the subsequent maintenance of peace and security through better application of the country’s “smart power” reserves, as well as in terms of the demands and opportunities associated with an international system in flux.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Leadership, Crisis Management, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

134. In Praise of Conflict Management

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Amidst violent events, it is easy to be tempted to seek decisive “solutions” to the Palestinian problem(s) – in both the PA areas and in Gaza – through drastic military action, or through equally dramatic concessions. But given the lessons of recent history, as well as the unpredictable nature of regional events, it makes sense to adhere to “conflict management” and piecemeal arrangements. This is not as a cowardly choice by hapless political and military leaders, but as a rational choice in irrational circumstances; even more so when the Iranian challenge looms larger than ever on Israel’s immediate horizons. Patience has its own merits.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

135. Justice through Transitions: Conflict, Peacemaking and Human Rights in the Global South

Author:
César Rodríguez and Meghan Morris
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
The chapters in this volume illustrate many complexities of transitional justice processes from the perspective of young human rights advocates involved in these struggles, many with their own complicated personal connections to the search for justice. These advocates hail from countries that have divergent relationships with the notion of transitional justice, from places deeply embedded in its norms and processes, such as Argentina and Colombia, to countries undergoing various kinds of transitions on very different terms, such as Turkey and Mexico. All of the chapters, however, write the messiness of seeking justice through transitions, spanning from the personal and intimate to the national and global. Together, these chapters beautifully illustrate both the pain and the political possibilities that come from the inability to leave history in the past, as well as the creativity of individual and collective efforts to seek justice through transitions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, Transitional Justice, Justice, and Transition
Political Geography:
Global South

136. Four ways in which the Syrian regime controls refugee return

Author:
Samar Batrawi and Ana Uzelac
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Syrian society is more socially, politically and geographically fragmented than ever before. None of the social problems that caused the 2011 protests have been resolved. Nevertheless, during recent months the Syrian regime has been trying to foster the image that Syria is entering a post-war phase in which a unified and stable Syria can flourish under President Bashar al-Assad. The fact that more than half of the country’s pre-war population is living in exile and has no part in this new social contract of sorts is conveniently omitted from the image presented of this ‘new’ Syria. These refugees will likely continue to live in precarious conditions, with few prospects for safe and voluntary return.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Security
Political Geography:
Syria

137. How Will the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria Change Dynamics of the Conflict?

Author:
Murat Yeşiltaş and Omar Özkızılcık
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
On December 19, 2018, U.S. officials stated that the Pentagon has an order to move troops out of Syria as quickly as possible, and began to inform partners in northeastern Syria of their plans to begin an immediate pullback of American forces from the region where they have been trying to wrap up the campaign against the Daesh. Shortly after the Washington Journal report, President Trump wrote on Twitter, “We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency.” In a statement, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders confirmed, “We have started returning United States troops home as we transition to the next phase of this campaign.” She pointed out that “[t]hese victories over ISIS in Syria do not signal the end of the Global Coalition or its campaign.” Additionally, U.S. officials told Reuters that all U.S. State Department personnel are being evacuated from Syria within 24 hours and U.S. troops will pull out of Syria in a time frame of between 60 to 100 days. This development came after Turkey’s military decisiveness to clear its border of the terrorist threat, Turkey’s airstrikes against PKK positions on the Sinjar and Karajak Mountains in Iraq, and the phone call between President Erdogan and Trump. The decision by Trump will be a turning point in the Syrian conflict, but how this development will reshape Turkish-American bilateral..
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Syria

138. Cyprus’s elusive reunification: so near to a solution, yet so far

Author:
William Chislett
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:
UN-brokered talks to finally reunify Cyprus after 43 years offered hope, but obstacles remained and any deal would have to be approved in referendums on both sides. Greek Cypriots rejected the settlement put forward by the United Nations in 2004. The reunification of Cyprus is one of the world’s longest running and intractable international problems. The latest talks in Geneva in January 2017 between Nicos Anastasiades, the Greek-Cypriot President, and Mustafa Akıncı, his Turkish-Cypriot counterpart, after 20 months of negotiations, made significant progress. The issues of territorial adjustments and security and guarantees are the most sensitive and core issues yet to be resolved and ones that will determine whether a solution can be reached and approved in referendums on both sides.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus

139. Planning Post-IS Iraq: Competing Visions Within the Shia Block?

Author:
Irene Costantini
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The Shia Block is realistically the key determinant for national reconciliation to occur in Iraq. However, its internal divisions make it a problematic and non-unitary interlocutor for national, regional, and international initiatives. So far, the Block has outlined two separate and independent plans: al-Hakim’s “Historical Settlement” and al-Sadr’s roadmap
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Security
Political Geography:
Iraq

140. Normalisation in Ankara-Baghdad Relations: A New Era?

Author:
Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The Iraqi and Turkish leadership have restored direct contact, thus providing an opportunity for dialogue. However, the extent to which this can lead to a sustainable normalisation process and furthermore to a deepening of their relationship is highly questionable. This policy brief argues that the main problem lies with the fact that a win-win scenario of overlapping or complementary interests does not seem to be driving the leaderships’ actions. Instead, it is ad hoc developments external to their bilateral relationship that have a positive effect for the time being, such as the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey, and subsequently a concerted attempt between Russia, Turkey and Iran to stabilise the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

141. Regards sur l’Eurasie - L’année politique 2016

Author:
Anne De Tinguy, Bayram Balci, François Dauceé, Laure Delcour, Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, Aude Merlin, Xavier Richet, Kathy Rousselet, and Julien Vercueil
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Looking into Eurasia : the year in politics provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stake
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, Sovereignty, War, International Security, Regional Integration, and State
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Belarus, and European Union

142. Military and Democracy: Conflict Resolution in Reference with Constitutional and Political Development of Pakistan

Author:
Iqra Khalil and Naveed Ahmed
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
A strong army plays an important role for the defense and security of any country. Without a strong army, no country can survive smoothly. Unfortunately, in Pakistan, army remained dominant in the political and constitutional development since independence because of some loopholes in the political and constitutional system. Consequently, Pakistan had to face various military coups. In British India, Army neither tried to overrule the Constitutional and political decisions taken by the Government, nor took over the country and the same rule was followed by the Indian army after independence which ultimately strengthens their political institutions. Whereas Pakistan has to face various successful as well as unsuccessful coups which not only derail the political institutions but also destabilizes the social, economic and legal systems of the country. The purpose of this article is to critically analyze the role of army in the political and Constitutional development of Pakistan especially the role of courts in validation of the different coups imposed by military dictators. This article deals with the recent constitutional amendments and judgments delivered by superior courts and to look how far the judiciary can go to stop further military intervention in the political affairs of Pakistan?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Politics, Military Affairs, and Constitution
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Punjab

143. Post-conflict Stabilization in Africa

Author:
Anke Hoeffler
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
Post-conflict peace is fragile, about half of all conflicts break out again during the twelve post-conflict years. In Africa this risk is even higher. Using survival analysis this paper suggests that while it is difficult to find correlates of peace stabilization, there are some policy relevant results. How a conflict ends is important. Negotiated settlements are fragile but the chances of peace surviving can be significantly improved through the deployment of UN peacekeeping operations. The data suggest that many operations start before the end of the armed conflict, thus they should be viewed as ‘peace preparation’ operations. The paper recommends the use of additional case studies, given that the small sample size prevents further quantitative examination of these important issues.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Economics, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

144. The Kurds in a Volatile Middle East

Author:
Ofra Bengio
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
The Kurds challenge the self-perceptions of the nation-states in which they reside: Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq; and they have played a crucial role in combatting Islamic State. This study analyzes the rivalry and interdependence among the four parts of Kurdistan as well as the dynamics of their relations with regional countries and the international community. With the entire region in a state of flux, will the Kurds fulfill their dream for a state or autonomous existence of their own?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, Self Determination, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Middle East

145. Israel’s Inelegant Options in Judea and Samaria: Withdrawal, Annexation, and Conflict Management

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
In advance of the fiftieth anniversary of the Six Day War, Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror examines the two basic approaches to resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, and application of Israeli sovereignty over Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and the creation of a bi-national state (in practice). Amidror, the Anne and Greg Rosshandler Senior Fellow at the BESA Center, was national security advisor to Prime Minister Netanyahu and director of the Intelligence Analysis Division in Military Intelligence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Security
Political Geography:
Israel and Palestine

146. The Libyan Tragedy and Its Meaning: The Wages of Indecision

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
Overshadowed by the Syrian tragedy, the collapse of the Libyan state had dangerous consequences for Mediterranean security. It also demonstrated the cost of a hastily organized intervention followed by disastrous neglect and the rise of Islamist forces. Still, its latest chapter – the successful campaign to eradicate IS in Sirte – proves that when carefully chosen, limited military means can achieve strategic goals: and in that basis, measures should be taken to satisfy General Hiftar and his Egyptian backers.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
Political Geography:
Libya

147. The Haftar-Sarraj Rapprochement and Prospects for a Resolution of the Libyan Crisis

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Abstract The commander of Operation Dignity, Khalifa Haftar, shocked supporters even more than his opponents when he agreed to meet the Chairman of the Presidential Council, Fayez al-Sarraj, in Abu Dhabi on 2 May 2017, having previously refused to recognise him. This about-face may be attributable to the acquiescence of Haftar’s regional allies to direct international pressure. Reactions to the rapprochement between al-Sarraj and Haftar varied across the eastern and western fronts. Khalifa Haftar’s status in the east precludes serious opposition to his decisions, while in the western region a substantial segment of the population blessed the meeting in hopes that a détente would stop the deterioration of the security and economic situation. In contrast, western political and military factions were incensed, and some responded violently. Haftar’s acceptance of consensual agreement and reconciliation clearly grows out the waning possibility of assuming control of the country through decisive military action. From his standpoint, it therefore makes sense to attempt to impose his conditions through negotiations, which means the Skhirat agreement could collapse or undergo radical revisions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
Political Geography:
Libya

148. The Battle of Western Mosul: Stakes and prospects

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
This paper reviews the importance of western Mosul to all parties in the conflict: the Iraqi forces and their allies, on the one hand, and the Islamic State’s forces, on the other, and the obstacles to any of these parties resolving the conflict. It also touches on the extent of their forces and the clear dominance of the offensive forces, and it discusses the military strategies for the battle and potential outcomes in addition to the available options for the Islamic State (IS). It anticipates an end to the fight in favour of the Iraqi forces within a few weeks if the battle and its results progress at a similar pace to that of its first week. This will depend on any unaccounted for variables during the battle that would change the equation on the ground. It concludes by discussing the available options for IS after the battle ends, with the expectation that IS will fight until the end; while its commanders will inevitability lose the battle, this will not eliminate threats to security and stability in Iraq in the foreseeable future.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and International Security
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

149. Between Astana and Geneva: The outlook of conflicting agendas in the Syrian crisis

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Since the beginning of the Astana process, Moscow seems to be in a race against time to establish the foundations of a solution in Syria before arriving in Geneva: first, by reforming the opposition’s delegation to the negotiations, an effort Moscow has been working on ever since the military intervention in Syria began, and second, by redrawing the solution’s main parameters, which Moscow exerted great effort towards during marathon negotiations conducted with the former US Secretary of State, John Kerry. Through these negotiations, Moscow has been able to change the rules at Geneva by prioritising an agreement to change the constitution, followed by the formation of a non-sectarian representative government, and then calling for presidential elections with Assad’s participation, so ‘the Syrian people can decide his fate’.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil War, and International Security
Political Geography:
Syria

150. Weekly Conflict Summary

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Over the course of this reporting period, intra-opposition strife continued to harm groups in opposition-held territory, namely in Idleb and northern Aleppo. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Afrin initiated an offensive against opposition groups in northern Syria while advancing into Raqqa city to the east. Pro-government forces also advanced against ISIS in eastern Aleppo/western Raqqa and Homs. The situation around the US garrison at the al-Tanf border crossing continues to grow more complex as pro- government forces outflanked opposition groups advancing against ISIS in the area, reaching the Iraqi border to the north of opposition and US special forces positions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Security
Political Geography:
Syria and Kurdistan