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39501. The Waiting Room

Author:
Kim Lockwood
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
This here is nowhere. A circle of whiteness squared to still the furthest confines of the room. Passengers pass by with nothing to declare, papers and permissions all approved. As ceaseless movement breaks in waves of sound on sound, a static too thickly sewn to undo grounds us in a place of stark sensation where mattresses are spread thinly on the ground and belonging can't be found in our slow translations.

39502. The Impact of Asian Investment on Africa's Textile Industries

Author:
Tang Xiaoyang
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Asian investors' impact on Africa's cotton, textile, and apparel sectors may have profound consequences for the continent's industrialization and development. As southeast African countries seek to industrialize and build indigenous cotton-textile-apparel value chains, the interactions between Asian—particularly Chinese—investors and African companies become more and more complex. Indeed, Asian investors present both a challenge to and an opportunity for local industries, and southeast African countries need a clear vision and tailored policies to make the most of the opportunities. Asian investors' impact on Africa's cotton, textile, and apparel sectors may have profound consequences for the continent's industrialization and development. As southeast African countries seek to industrialize and build indigenous cotton-textile-apparel value chains, the interactions between Asian-particularly Chinese-investors and African companies become more and more complex. Indeed, Asian investors present both a challenge to and an opportunity for local industries, and southeast African countries need a clear vision and tailored policies to make the most of the opportunities.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

39503. Who Runs the International System? Power and the Staffing of the United Nations Secretariat

Author:
Paul Novosad and Eric Werker
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
National governments frequently pull strings to get their citizens appointed to senior positions in international institutions. We examine, over a 60 year period, the nationalities of the most senior positions in the United Nations Secretariat, ostensibly the world's most representative international institution. The results indicate which nations are successful in this zero-sum game, and what national characteristics correlate with power in international institutions. The most overrepresented countries are small, rich democracies like the Nordic countries. Statistically, democracy, investment in diplomacy, and economic/military power are predictors of senior positions, even after controlling for the U.N. staffing mandate of competence and integrity. National control over the United Nations is remarkably sticky; however the in influence of the United States has diminished as US ideology has shifted away from its early allies. In spite of the decline in US influence, the Secretariat remains pro-American relative to the world at large.
Topic:
Demographics, International Cooperation, and International Organization
Political Geography:
United States

39504. Rigged Cars and Barrel Bombs: Aleppo and the State of the Syrian War

Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As Aleppo goes, so goes Syria's rebellion. The city is crucial to the mainstream opposition's military viability as well as its morale, thus to halting the advance of the Islamic State (IS). After an alliance of armed rebel factions seized its eastern half in July 2012, Aleppo for a time symbolised the opposition's optimism and momentum; in the following months, it exposed the rebels' limits, as their progress slowed, and they struggled to win over the local population. Today, locked in a two-front war against the regime and IS, their position is more precarious than at any time since the fighting began. Urgent action is required to prevent the mainstream opposition's defeat: either for Iran and Russia to press the regime for de-escalation, to showcase their willingness to confront IS instead of exploiting its presence to further strengthen Damascus; or, more realistically, for the U.S., Europe and regional allies to qualitatively and quantitatively improve support to local, non-jihadi rebel factions in Aleppo. Any eventual possibility of a negotiated resolution of the war depends on one course or the other being followed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Arabia and Syria

39505. Examining China's Assertiveness through the Eyes of Chinese IR Scholars

Author:
Kai He and Huiyun Feng
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
China's assertive diplomacy in recent years has ignited intense debates among International Relations (IR) scholars. Some argue that China's assertive behavior is rooted in its perception of increasing power and capabilities. Others suggest that it is U.S. policies that triggered China's assertive reactions. Relying on an original survey of China's IR scholars conducted in Beijing in 2013 and using structural equation modeling (SEM), we empirically examine Chinese IR scholars' attitude towards Chinese power versus the United States, their perceptions of U.S. policy in Asia, and their preference for an assertive Chinese foreign policy. We find that both the power perception and policy reaction arguments make sense in accounting for Chinese IR scholars' attitude regarding China's assertive diplomacy. However, our research suggests that a more pessimistic view on Chinese power is more likely to be associated with a preference for an assertive foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
China and East Asia

39506. Water Pressures in Central Asia

Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Water has long been a major cause of conflict in Central Asia. Two states – Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – have a surplus; the other three say they do not get their share from the region's great rivers, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya, which slice across it from the Tien Shan, Pamir Mountains, and the Hindu Kush to the Aral Sea's remains. Pressures are mounting, especially in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The population in Central Asia has increased by almost ten million since 2000, and limited arable land is being depleted by over-use and outdated farming methods. Extensive corruption and failing infrastructure take further toll, while climate change is likely to have long-term negative consequences. As economies become weaker and states more fragile, heightened nationalism, border disputes, and regional tensions complicate the search for a mutually acceptable solution to the region's water needs. A new approach that addresses water and related issues through an interlocking set of individually more modest bilateral agreements instead of the chimera of a single comprehensive one is urgently needed.
Topic:
Agriculture, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

39507. Qatar and the Recalibration of Power in the Gulf

Author:
Lina Khatib
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Long a minor regional actor in the shadow of Saudi Arabia, Qatar wants to increase its influence. But Doha's expansionist foreign policy has been plagued by miscalculations, domestic challenges, and international pressure—all issues connected to Doha's relationship with Riyadh. As a result of these setbacks, Qatar's regional role has diminished, and for the foreseeable future, its external influence is likely to remain under the direction of Saudi Arabia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar

39508. Neoliberalism without Neoliberals Evidence from the Rise of 401(k) Retirement Plans

Author:
Michael A. McCarthy
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
This paper considers the rise of defined-contribution (DC) pensions – such as 401(k) plans – in order to contribute to the debate about neoliberalism. It challenges the generalizability of two common accounts: the weak state intervention thesis, which argues that neoliberal policy change is driven by state retreat and deregulation, and the state-managed transition thesis, which argues that neoliberal policies are both enacted and managed through new regulations. In contrast, this paper argues that the development of the employer-based pension system between 1970 and 1995 is an instance of “neoliberalism without neoliberals.” A battery of regulations was passed between 1974 and the late 1980s that were intended to make the traditional system of defined- benefit (DB) pensioning more secure. However, this legislation triggered a business shift to 401(k)s. The legislation worked in such a counterintuitive way because of three factors related to changes in “the balance of class forces” in American society: (1) new laws increased costs for firms, with small businesses being hit the heaviest, (2) employment in the manufacturing sector, labor's traditional stronghold, declined as a share of total employment, and (3) because unions were unable or unwilling to unionize emergent sectors of the economy, new businesses in them were not compelled to negotiate DB plans. In such a context, growing regulatory costs pushed many firms to adopt DC pensions for their employees. The outcome was a major policy shift, considered by many to be a defining feature of the neoliberal era.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
America

39509. Is China's Property Market Heading toward Collapse?

Author:
Li-gang Liu
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
China's property market has slowed significantly since the first half of 2014, with sharp declines in sales and a buildup in the inventory of new homes. This sharper than expected downturn—which has affected not only second- and third tier smaller cities but also first-tier megacities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou—contrasts with last year's buoyant sales and double-digit price surge. Compounded by fears of a default in the shadow banking system and the perception of a highly leveraged Chinese economy, the sudden declines in the property sector are being watched closely. Many commentators believe this could be a turning point for the sector, triggering a hard landing of the Chinese economy and even a financial crisis. Over the last decade, China's property sector has become an important pillar for the country's growth as well as the key source for elevated commodity prices. A property market slump would hurt other sectors, as well as drag down resource-rich economies that rely heavily on China to buy their exports.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, and Urbanization
Political Geography:
Japan, China, and United Nations

39510. Debt Sanctions Can Help Ukraine and Fill a Gap in the International Financial System

Author:
Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The escalating crisis in Ukraine has prompted the United States and Europe to impose the toughest economic sanctions against Russia since the end of the Cold War. Continued instability and military conflict in eastern Ukraine are straining Ukrainian finances. Despite a generous international support package, the government faces shrinking revenues, rising costs, and a spike in foreign debt payments over the next two years.
Topic:
Cold War, Debt, and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Asia

39511. The Federal Reserve Engages the World (1970–2000): An Insider's Narrative of the Transition to Managed Floating and Financial Turbulence

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper traces the evolution of the Federal Reserve and its engagement with the global economy over the last three decades of the 20th century: 1970 to 2000. The paper examines the Federal Reserve's role in international economic and financial policy and analysis covering four areas: the emergence and taming of the great inflation, developments in US external accounts, foreign exchange analysis and activities, and external financial crises. It concludes that during this period the US central bank emerged to become the closest the world has to a global central bank.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

39512. Demographic versus Cyclical Influences on US Labor Force Participation

Author:
William R. Cline and Jared Nolan
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper applies time series analysis to distinguish between cyclical and demographic causes of the decline of the labor force participation rate. Some public discussions suggest that the decline of US unemployment from its 2009 peak of 10 percent to about 6 percent by mid-2014 grossly exaggerates recovery because most of the decline reflects the exit of discouraged workers from the labor force. This study finds instead that one-half to two-thirds of the decline in labor force participation by about 3 percentage points from late 2007 to early 2014 is attributable to aging of the population. Although about one-third is found attributable to the lagged influence of high, and especially long-term, unemployment, going forward the potential rebound in the participation rate from recovery is projected to be approximately offset by further aging of the population.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, Labor Issues, and Population
Political Geography:
United States

39513. Oil Prices and Interstate Conflict Behavior

Author:
Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Anecdotal evidence suggests high oil prices embolden leaders in oil-rich states to pursue more aggressive foreign policies. This article tests the conjecture in a sample of 153 countries for the time period 1947–2001. It finds strong evidence of a contingent effect of oil prices on interstate disputes, with high oil prices associated with significant increases in dispute behavior among oil-exporting states, while having either a negative or null effect on dispute behavior in nonexporting states.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Oil, and History

39514. Does Clientelism Work? A Test os Guessability in India

Author:
Mark Schneider
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
Local brokers are thought to possess fine-grained information on voters' political preferences, material needs, and even social preferences. Research on clientelism assumes that brokers meet the most basic informational requirement of knowing voters' partisan preferences, if not their votes. This assumption drives theoretical predictions on the types of voters politicians should target with selective benefits, and whether or not a quid pro quo exchange of benefits-for-votes is an efficient electoral strategy relative to programmatic distribution. Nonetheless, existing scholarship does not test this assumption and analysis of variation in brokers' ability to identify voters' partisan preferences has not been conducted. To test this assumption, this paper develops a behavioral measure – guessability – based on whether or not village council presidents in Rajasthan, India correctly guess the partisan preferences of voters sampled from their local areas. I find guessability to be lower than existing theory and low-information benchmarks expect. Local leaders can identify the partisan preferences of voters who are most guessable either because they belong to core partisan ethnic groups or because they are integrated into their local co-partisan networks. However, they perform poorly at identifying those whose partisan preferences are uncertain and require monitoring to reveal. This has consequences for the targeting strategies parties and politicians pursue.
Topic:
Political Economy, Politics, Political Theory, and Sociology
Political Geography:
India and Rajasthan

39515. The State of REDD+ Finance

Author:
Marigold Norman and Smita Nakhooda
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper presents a thorough synthesis of available data to illuminate the current global state of finance for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+). It adds to a growing body of work that seeks to understand the size and composition of finance for REDD+ initiatives, as well as the delivery of climate finance more generally. The analysis shows that aggregate pledges of both public and private finance are significant, at more than US $8.7 billion for the period between 2006 and March 2014, but the pace of new pledges slowed after 2010. The public sector contributes nearly 90% of reported REDD+ finance, with the preponderance of funding concentrated among a relatively small number of donors and recipient countries. The paper analyzes early experience with performance-based finance, although such finance represents less than two-fifths of pledges to date. The extent to which new institutions in the climate finance architecture such as the Green Climate Fund will provide a new and effective channel for increasing support for REDD+ remains to be seen.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Cooperation, and Politics

39516. Self-Selection into Credit Markets: Evidence from Agriculture in Mali

Author:
Dean Karlan, Bram Thuysbaert, Christopher Udry, and Lori Beaman
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
We partnered with a micro-lender in Mali to randomize credit offers at the village level. Then, in no-loan control villages, we gave cash grants to randomly selected households. These grants led to higher agricultural investments and profits, thus showing that liquidity constraints bind with respect to agricultural investment. In loan-villages, we gave grants to a random subset of farmers who (endogenously) did not borrow. These farmers have lower – in fact zero – marginal returns to the grants. Thus we find important heterogeneity in returns to investment and strong evidence that farmers with higher marginal returns to investment self-select into lending programs.
Topic:
Agriculture and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa

39517. Pathways to Security Council Reform

Author:
Richard Gowan and Nora Gordon
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
In this paper, New York University's Center on International Cooperation (CIC) seeks to explore potential pathways to United Nations Security Council (UNSC) reform. We begin with an overview of the current context, which has been characterized by increasing international pressure for Security Council reform. The Council's abysmal performance in the Syrian crisis has fueled the mounting pressure for reform, which includes the French proposal to limit use of the veto and Saudi Arabia's rejection of a non-permanent seat. We then offer a brief history and analysis of previous reform attempts; an explanation of global perspectives on the issue of UNSC reform; background on the Intergovernmental Negotiations (IGN) on UNSC reform in New York; and an analysis of discussions on reform in and around the African Union.
Topic:
Security, International Security, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa, New York, and Saudi Arabia

39518. Rethinking Afghan Local Governance Aid After Transition

Author:
Frances Z. Brown
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The conclusion of the U.S.-led "surge" of 2009 onward and the closure of provincial recon¬struction teams and other local civil-military installations have affected how aid is delivered in Afghanistan's more remote and contested areas. The time is ripe for a recalibration of donor approaches to local governance and development in areas previously targeted by the surge. Specifically, foreign stakeholders should reexamine three central principles of their previous subnational governance strategy. First, donors should revise their conception of assisting service delivery from the previous approach, which often emphasized providing maximal inputs in a fragmented way, to a more restrained vision that stresses predictability and reliability and acknowledges the interlinked nature of politics, justice, and sectoral services in the eyes of the local population. Second, donors should reframe their goal of establishing linkages between the Afghan govern¬ment and population by acknowledging that the main obstacles to improving center-periph¬ery communication and execution are often political and structural rather than technical. Third, donors should revise the way they define, discuss, and measure local governance prog¬ress in contested areas, away from favoring snapshots of inputs and perceptions and toward capturing longer-term changes on the ground in processes, structures, and incentives. The coming political and development aid transition provides an overdue opportunity for Afghan governance priorities to come to the fore. At the same time, the ever growing chasm between Kabul's deliberations on the one hand and local governance as experienced in more remote, insurgency-wracked areas on the other presents renewed risks. In the short term, donors let the air out of the aid bubble carefully. In the long term, resolving Afghanistan's local governance challenges continues to demand sustained commitment and systematic execution.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

39519. Nordic-Baltic Support to Military and Security Capacity Building?

Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Support to Military and Security Capacity Building is expanding as a way to strengthen the resilience of states and enhance their ability to manage conflict and insecurity constructively. It offers new openings for Nordic and Baltic engagements and partnerships.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, NATO, United Nations, Fragile/Failed State, and Peacekeeping

39520. Governing Uranium and Nuclear Supply Chains: Why Private Engagement is Needed

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The expansion of uranium mining into states of weak governance calls for new forms of regulation from private and public actors. Companies along the nuclear supply chain can strengthen the global nuclear regulatory regime through engagement, material stewardship, and traceability approaches.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Markets, Nuclear Weapons, Natural Resources, and Nuclear Power

39521. Prepare for a 'multi-partner' world! Reordering Order

Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
If decision-makers are to cope with a rapidly emerging polycentric world characterized by compounding complexity and declining constitutionalism, new forms of statecraft are need - ed. Partnerships may well be the way forward.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Power Politics

39522. The Role of Human Rights in Climate Change Adaptation

Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Inconsistent climate change policies increase the vulnerability of marginalised populations and lead to resource conflicts. A human rights-based approach can help protect the adaptive capacities of climate vulnerable populations.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Human Rights, and International Cooperation

39523. Transforming armed non-state actors Disarmament, demobilization and reintegration

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
It is necessary to rethink the assumptions and theory of change of Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) programs in current situations of armed violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, War, and Armed Struggle

39524. A Difficult Balancing Act: Backing the Kurds in the fight against IS in Iraq and Syria

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Kurdish forces now provide the necessary boots on the ground in the framework of Operation Inherent Resolve. However, the strong backing of the Kurds presents a number of challenges and difficult balancing acts for Western and regional actors.
Topic:
Political Violence, Defense Policy, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

39525. Prioritising European Defence Cooperation: The next step for the common security and defence policy

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The European council's decisions on the common Security and Defence policy (CSDP) in December 2013 and the process that now follows should be used by EU member states as a means to progressively empower the CSDP within a short-term future.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

39526. After Ukraine: Keeping the Arctic Stable

Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The greatest challenge to the stability of the Arctic actually comes from outside the region itself, but there are still strong reasons to be optimistic about security in the Arctic region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Climate Change, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Arctic

39527. Social Accountability and Public Service Delivery in Rural Africa

Author:
Esbern Friis-Hansen
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Social accountability as a tool for development planning is gaining foothold in international donor circles. It is concerned with the responsibility and responsiveness of state authorities, as well as the ability of citizens to make claims and hold those who exercise power to account for their actions.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa

39528. Pursuing gender equality in land administration

Author:
Helle Munk Ravnborg and Rachel Spichiger
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Ensuring gender equality with respect to land rights is hailed as a key element of the recent land reforms, but actual results in this respect are limited. Achieving gender equality requires a comprehensive focus on land, family and other laws, including customary, pertaining to land and on their implementation on the ground.
Topic:
Civil Society, Gender Issues, Governance, and Reform

39529. Chinese Investments in Italy: Facing Risks and Grasping Opportunities

Author:
Marco Sanfilippo
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This paper analyses foreign direct investment (FDI) activities of Chinese multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Italy. Chinese investments in Italy present features similar to those in other advanced countries, while also showing some country-specific features. Italy is considered an attractive destination for Chinese investors not only because of its large market and its strategic position as a gateway to the Mediterranean, but also because it is seen as a valuable source of strategic assets in both traditional and advanced industries. The analysis of the Italian case is supported by the presentation of a number of detailed case studies, which exemplify the strategies followed by Chinese companies in the country and help summarise the main implications of this phenomenon. Evidence presented in this paper gives rise to a number of suggestions for policy makers on how to maximise the benefits from rising flows of FDI from China and other emerging economies.
Political Geography:
China

39530. EU Court Annuls Hamas Terrorist Designation

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The group's legal challenge will likely succeed for now, but the EU can reinstate the ban by relying on the plethora of evidence from European terrorism cases involving Hamas. In the latest sign of the legal troubles facing the European Union's designation regime -- the authority under which governments can freeze funds and economic resources of illicit actors -- the EU General Court is expected to annul the terrorist designation of Hamas on December 17. The judgment comes on the heels of a similar action in October that annulled the Council of the European Union's designation of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) on similarly procedural grounds. Although the new judgment is not expected to acquit Hamas of charges related to violence, it comes at a time when the group's terrorist and militant activities are on the rise. And like the LTTE, Hamas will surely point to the judgment as "evidence" that it is not a terrorist entity.
Political Geography:
Europe

39531. Palestinian-Israeli Incitement Can and Should Be Curbed, Especially Now

Author:
David Pollock
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Incitement by Palestinians and Israelis against each other should be penalized rather than explained away or dismissed. The omnibus spending bills just passed by the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives include one obscure yet potentially significant provision on the issue of incitement in the Israeli-Palestinian arena: a reiteration of the requirement that the Palestinian Authority (PA) act to end its official incitement against Israel as a condition for continued U.S. funding. This provision should be enforced, not evaded as has been the case until now.
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Palestine

39532. The Battle of Ideas 2.0: Combating ISIS Ideology at Home and Abroad

Author:
Matthew Levitt, Prince Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, and Hedieh Mirahmadi
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
An in-depth conversation on the challenges of battling jihadist ideology in the ISIS era. On December 16, His Royal Highness Prince Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein of Jordan, Matthew Levitt, and Hedieh Mirahmadi addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. HRH Prince Zeid is the UN high commissioner for human rights. Levitt is the Institute's Fromer-Wexler Fellow and director of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence. Mirahmadi is the director of World Organization for Resource Development and Education (WORDE), a nonprofit dedicated to preventing radicalization. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Political Geography:
Jordan

39533. The GCC in 2015: Domestic Security Trumps Regional Integration

Author:
Karen E. Young
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The conservative Gulf Arab states are functioning more cohesively again after a year of diplomatic tensions, but questions persist about political reform, economic integration, and demographic issues. The thirty-fifth annual Gulf Cooperation Council summit, held December 10 in Qatar, was probably the most efficient meeting the group has ever held. With the diplomatic schism between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain papered over three weeks earlier, Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani hosted the rulers of Kuwait and Bahrain, as well as senior substitutes for the ailing leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman.
Political Geography:
Kuwait, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and United Arab Emirates

39534. Syrian Air Force Operations: Strategic, Effective, and Unrestrained

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Absent more robust international intervention, the regime remains essentially unopposed in the air, allowing it to continue pursuing its strategic objectives and killing civilians with relative impunity. Prior to the ongoing civil war, the Syrian Arab Air Force (SAAF) was never considered a key component of the Syrian military. Routinely bested by the Israeli Air Force and equipped with a mostly aging fleet of Soviet-era aircraft, it was not seen as an important player in the regional military landscape. The war has changed that, however, raising the SAAF to a prominent role in the struggle to preserve the Assad regime. Since spring 2012, air operations have become a strategic element in the conflict, allowing the regime to strike anywhere in the country with virtual impunity, contributing to the opposition's failure to consolidate control of territory, and supporting a wide variety of military operations. Along the way, the air force has been involved in some of the worst regime attacks on civilians. The SAAF's central role in regime preservation and human-rights violations make it a logical and morally justifiable target for foreign intervention, whether in terms of direct allied air operations or enhanced assistance to the opposition.
Political Geography:
Israel and Syria

39535. Which Way Cuba? Political transformations, social deterioration and attempted dialogue

Author:
Armando Chaguaced and Borghild Tønnessen-Krokan
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper attempts to summarize the status of the Cuban reform processes at the end of 2013 (including some elements from early 2014). It is part of a project at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, where we are following both the economic reforms and – in this case – the political implications of economic reforms. The article will take as a point of departure reforms and changes that may be observed in the following areas: agricultural transformations, possible widening space for entrepreneurs, the Mariel Special Development Zone, the new cooperative sector, the emergence of a new dual state-private structure in the economy, a discussion of different Cuban agents of change, considerations about an evolving international context. Towards the end of the paper, we attempt to assess these empirical trends against the backdrop of some theoretical considerations for political transformations, partly with reference to other cases, before the paper draws up three possible scenarios for Cuba towards and even after 2018, when the great generational shift in the Cuban leadership is supposed to take place. This Report also contains an article going more in depth about the deterioration of social services in Cuba, written by the Cuban political scientist Armando Chaguaceda. Since this article is printed in Spanish, a summary in English is included in the present article. The key question behind this paper is whether and to what extent a promotion of economic pluralism is taking place in such a way that it may lead to political pluralism and de-concentration of power, or contrary, whether there will be a re-concentration of both economic and political power in the party, state and military nomenclature.
Political Geography:
Cuba

39536. Will the Next Israeli Election Be About Regional Challenges or Netanyahu's Leadership?

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The long-serving prime minister suddenly is no longer the presumptive favorite against a rapidly consolidating opposition, which will likely spur him to shore up his own right-wing base throughout the campaign season.
Political Geography:
Israel

39537. Jihadism on the Rise in Europe: The Dutch Perspective

Author:
Rob Bertholee
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
An intensive discussion covering the role of the Syria campaign, advances by the new generation of European jihadists, and steps the Dutch government is taking to understand and reduce the problem.
Political Geography:
Europe and Syria

39538. Jordan's King Abdullah Comes to Washington

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Friday's meeting offers an opportunity to discuss the kingdom's domestic challenges, the proposed no-fly zone in northern Syria, and the potential ramifications of ramped-up training of Syrian opposition forces on Jordanian territory.
Political Geography:
Washington, Syria, and Jordan

39539. Making the Iraqi Revenue-Generating Deal Work

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Leaders in Baghdad and Iraqi Kurdistan have taken a brave step toward reunifying the country through revenue sharing. The United States should support implementation of the deal.
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Baghdad, and Kurdistan

39540. Between ISIS and Iran: Bahrain Tweaks Washington

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Amid electoral boycotts and continued concerns about ISIS and Iran, King Hamad has reappointed a prime minister whom Washington regards as an impediment to political progress.
Political Geography:
Iran, Washington, and Bahrain

39541. What Difference Would an Iran Deal Make?

Author:
Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Implementing a nuclear agreement will be no easier than reaching one, and Washington will have little influence over what Iran decides to do over time about the deal.
Political Geography:
Iran and Washington

39542. Regional Nuclear Plans in the Aftermath of an Iran Deal

Author:
Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
While the purpose of multilateral negotiations with Iran is to reduce proliferation concerns, successful talks may in fact accelerate nuclear plans in the Gulf states and Jordan.
Political Geography:
Iran and Jordan

39543. Tunisians Elect a President

Author:
Sarah Feuer
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Regardless of who enters Carthage Palace in January, a free and fair election will represent an achievement worthy of international recognition. On Sunday, November 23, Tunisians will return to the polls to elect a president nearly one month after voting in a new parliament. The parliamentary election, widely praised by international and domestic observers, brought in a legislature dominated by the anti-Islamist Nidaa Tounes (Tunisian Call) Party, which won 85 of the parliament's 217 seats. Tunisia's main Islamist party, Ennahda (Renaissance), came in second place, garnering 69 seats -- a notable decline from the 89 seats it obtained in the 2011 election for a transitional assembly. Three smaller blocs -- the leftist Popular Front coalition, the centrist Free Patriotic Union, and the liberal Afek Tounes (Tunisian Horizon) Party -- will occupy a combined 39 seats, while a host of independents will fill the remaining 24 seats. Against this backdrop, the presidential election will mark another milestone in Tunisia's promising, if precarious, transition to democracy. In a region plagued by failing states, resurgent authoritarianism, and violence, the mere fact that Tunisia is holding a peaceful presidential election should give the United States and the international community reason to celebrate and, more important, lend assistance moving forward.
Political Geography:
United States and Tunisia

39544. The New 'Tri-Border' Region: Emerging Threats Along the Israel-Lebanon-Syria Frontier

Author:
Boaz Ganor and Hussain Abdul-Hussain
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A detailed discussion of the various factors fueling or constraining chaos on Syria's borders, including Arab tribal politics, Israeli security calculations, Iranian-Hezbollah military strategy, and a seemingly hesitant U.S.-led air campaign.
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Israel, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

39545. Policies and Politics Will Test U.S.-Israel Ties

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the Iran deadline approaches, violence flares up in Jerusalem, and respective election cycles ebb and flow, U.S. and Israeli officials will need to work harder than ever to manage bilateral tensions. In the coming weeks, a number of foreign and domestic developments will affect U.S. and Israeli policy, with each potentially testing the already tense bilateral relationship. One key date is November 24, the deadline for negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. President Obama has publicly said there is a "big gap" between the parties, making the prospects of a breakthrough unclear, but high-level U.S., EU, and Iranian envoys have completed two days of talks in Oman in a bid to reach such a breakthrough. If a deal is in fact made and the terms are not to Israel's liking, then the war of words with Washington may resume on this very sensitive issue.
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Washington, Israel, and Oman

39546. The 1968 Siege of Sana: A Houthi Historical Parallel

Author:
Asher Orkaby
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Locals tend to perceive today's conflict less as a struggle between external forces than as a continuation of long-running tensions between Zaydi tribal elite and the modern Yemeni state. The beginning of November saw Sana's airport, government buildings, universities, and even major city intersections firmly under the control of the antigovernment Houthi movement. Since the 1990s, the Houthi clan has gained the support of many northern Zadyi tribes, adherents of Yemen's branch of Shia Islam, which comprises around 30 percent of the country's population of 25 million. The attack on Sana caps a decade of armed political struggle between the tribesmen of the Houthi movement and the Yemeni government.
Political Geography:
Yemen

39547. Oman Ruler's Failing Health Could Affect U.S. Iran Policy

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The death of Sultan Qaboos with no clear successor would jeopardize U.S.-Iran diplomatic contacts, the latest of which will be the meeting tomorrow in Muscat between Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. On November 5, the Omani state television channel broadcast a video of seventy-three-year-old Sultan Qaboos bin Said, currently undergoing medical treatment in Germany. He greeted Omanis in anticipation of their national day, November 18, and expressed regret that he would not be back in Oman for the celebrations. No information has been given on what is wrong with the ruler but, though his voice was strong, he looked emaciated and frail. An unnamed diplomat in Muscat, the Omani capital, had been quoted in August as saying Qaboos has colon cancer.
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Germany, and Oman

39548. 'Jewish and Democratic': Implications of Israel's Self-Description, at Home and Abroad

Author:
Stuart Eizenstat and Ruth Gavison
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
What does it mean for Israel to identify as "both Jewish and democratic?" Watch a discussion with Ruth Gavison and Stuart Eizenstat on the hotly debated political, legal, and diplomatic consequences of Israel's core self-definition. On October 31, 2014, Ruth Gavison and Stuart Eizenstat addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Gavison is the Haim H. Cohn Professor of Human Rights Law at Hebrew University. Eizenstat co-chairs the board of directors for the Jewish People Policy Institute and has held senior positions in the White House and the Treasury, State, and Commerce Departments. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Political Geography:
Washington and Israel

39549. Reflections on Islamism: From the Muslim Brotherhood to the Islamic State

Author:
Shimon Shamir
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Israel's former ambassador to Egypt and Jordan discusses the changing face of Islamism for the Institute's annual lecture in honor of the late Zeev Schiff. In historical terms, Islamism is a modern movement. While its adherents claim that it is a purely indigenous effort to purge foreign elements that have penetrated Islam in the modern period, the irony is that Islamism itself was born of the friction between religious loyalties and modern, Western-dominated realities. From the start, the movement thrived in places where Western power and culture abounded -- many Islamist activists were Western-educated professionals who spent years in Europe or the United States, while many terrorist cells were formed by Muslims living in the cities of Germany, Britain, and Belgium. This Western connection facilitated the absorption of modern methods and instruments, including weaponry, Internet communications, aircraft, banking systems, smartphones, and so forth.
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, Israel, Germany, Belgium, Egypt, and Jordan

39550. Responding Effectively to the Military Challenges in Syria

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The moderate rebel force currently envisioned by Washington would take far too long to arrive on the battlefield and could be easy prey for ISIS and Assad. As the Obama administration's plans for raising a moderate Syrian opposition force become clearer, its approach seems to center on a lengthy recruitment, training, and deployment program initially dedicated to defense against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). If carried out, this plan promises a long delay before significant forces are on the battlefield. It would also limit their potential effectiveness in the near to midterm and perhaps commit them to a protracted enterprise in which defeat is likely.
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, and Syria