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42002. An Interdisciplinary Forum on Time and Globalization
- Author:
- Christopher Breu
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
- Abstract:
- How do globalization and temporality relate to one another? This was the question addressed by a 2011 workshop sponsored by Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition (IGHC) at McMaster University. In the past, globalization and temporality have both been characterized as moving forward independently of human volition, carrying all of us along in their flow. Now there are large literatures challenging this view, and showing how globalization and time are constructed and modified by humans. However, with some important exceptions (Harvey 1990, Sassen 2000, Appadurai 2005, Bauman 2000), the literatures on globalization and on temporality have developed separately from one another. It is important to bring these literatures into closer dialogue, because a great many urgent issues in contemporary human affairs involve interactions between temporality and globalization. These range from individual-level questions, such as managing the accelerated pace of everyday life, to large epochal problems, such as climate change, that may not always be readily apprehended, but are no less significant. The workshop participants, drawing on their backgrounds in a variety of academic disciplines, addressed the relationship between temporality and globalization in a variety of settings. Six of the papers presented at this workshop are gathered in this IGHC Working Paper. The assembled papers, individually and jointly, identify a number of themes of particular relevance to any comprehensive discussion of globalization and time. By way of introduction, it is useful to briefly consider how the most prominent of these themes are addressed by the contributors.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Human Development, and Time
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42003. Africa Capacity Indicators 2012: Capacity Development for Agricultural Transformation and Food Security
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
- Abstract:
- In Africa, the challenges impacting on the agricultural sector growth are multi-faceted. They include but are not limited to, an over-dependence on rainfall, weak capacity to respond to shocks, political governance, choice of crops, changing needs and changing food habits due to globalization, land degradation, land renting and sale to foreign companies. All of these contribute to an unnecessary level of food insecurity. The aforementioned are exacerbated by the low level of commitment to the sector in terms of policy and physical and human investment, especially in Agricultural Research, Extension and Education. This is coupled with the ineffectiveness and inefficiency in the supply side of the Agricultural Knowledge and Information System (AKIS) – institutional and process – and the absence of an organized and structured demand side of AKIS – the farmers.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Food, and Food Security
- Political Geography:
- Africa
42004. Women Count: Security Council Resolution 1325: Civil Society Monitoring Report 2012
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP)
- Abstract:
- The Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP) brings together 67 women’s organisations and networks and aims to bridge the gap between policy discussions and implementation and action on the ground on women, peace and security issues. GNWP’s work focuses on the following objectives: ▶ Enhance women’s capacities to use legal mechanisms available at the international, regional and national levels in order to protect their rights and ensure their participation in decision-making, peace building, conflict prevention and reconstruction; ▶ Enhance capacity amongst civil society, especially women’s civil society, to conduct effective monitoring, mobilize and advocate for effective policy implementation; ▶ Bring visibility to women’s issues and concerns on peace and security and amplify their voices at the national, regional and global levels; ▶ Support effective implementation of UNSCR 1325, 1820 and the supporting Women, Peace and Security resolutions particularly at the national level; ▶ Bolster Member State (MS) accountability in a range of ways and fora, which go beyond UNSCR 1325 anniversaries every October.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Gender Issues, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Women, Peace, and WPS
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42005. When is the Right of Secession Justified?
- Author:
- Neera Chandhoke
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- India International Centre (IIC)
- Abstract:
- In 1989–90, the Valley of Kashmir erupted in a series of violent protests. The scale and the intensity of the protests involving bomb explosions, closures, strikes, arson, attacks on government offices, bridges and buses, and murders, took everyone by surprise. It seemed to have even astonished the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) which had initiated and spurred the popular unrest in the Valley. For instance, on 1 March 1990, a crowd of more than one million from every part of the Valley, many wrapped in shrouds, gathered at the headquarters of the UN Military Observers Group in Srinagar and there was only one demand on their lips—freedom or azaadi. 1 If the JKLF was astonished at the intensity of anger against the Government of India (GOI), presumably the members of the Indian political establishment were also taken aback. The political elite seemed to have forgotten that the accession of the state to India in 1947 was disputed by many. They also seemed to have forgotten the special conditions on which the state had acceded to India. But now the people of Kashmir had stood up, spoken back to history, and refused to accept the way in which their state had been treated since 1947, through a combination of corruption, mis-governance, electoral mismanagement, closing off of the political space to new political agents, and violations of democracy by the Government of India and the regional government. This paved the way for the slide into political violence.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Nationalism, United Nations, Sectarian violence, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- India
42006. Hard Power in a Soft Package: The ‘True’ Conservatism of Obama Leadership in Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Matthew Crosston
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- Analyzing President Obama’s foreign policy and its global impact is no easy task. The early presidency of Obama has been marked by vicious attacks from the right, deep disappointment from the left, and something like indifference from the international community. This is understandable when the main argument is entertained: the ex- pectations of Obama’s global positions have not met reality mainly because they are more closely aligned with a cautious and considered ‘true’ conservatism, something no side (left, right, international) anticipated. The consequences of this becomes more than just about election results but has significant potential influence on the funda- mental debates between soft and hard power.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Elections, Leadership, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42007. The USA: Challenges of the Superpower
- Author:
- Ketevan Rostiashvili
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- Since the collapse of the Soviet Union function and mission of the United States in the contemporary world system is one of the most debatable problems of academic litera- ture. This article is an attempt to analyze most recent socioeconomic and political tendencies of the USA for better understanding the scale of ongoing transformation of the society. As the level of integration of contemporary world is very high, transfor- mation of the USA provokes tectonic changes and transformation of the world system, its structure and nature. This study argues that, although the US primacy in the world is significantly challenged and shaken by external and internal factors, the USA still preserves its traditional function of economic, financial, military and political superpow- er, but in a quite different environment. The article predominantly uses materials drawn from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA, The World Fact book 2012); U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the USA - 2012, the US Federal Budgets 2010- 2012, and other valuable literature and sources.
- Topic:
- Politics, Hegemony, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and Socioeconomics
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42008. Security Policy in the European Union and the United States through the issue of their Defence Expenditures
- Author:
- Theodore Metaxas and Emmanouil Marios L. Economou
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- This article aims to clarify how the level of defence expenditures affected security poli- cy in the post-World War II Europe and the United States till the present day. We first analyze theoretically the issue of a nation’s power through its defence outlays. We then proceed to the examination of how security policy was formulated during Cold War and afterwards for both Europe and the United States through their defence ex- penditures. By comparing European to United States defence budgets ceilings we found that the European military capabilities are undermined by the low level of the defence budget which is provided by the European Union member states as a whole, as well as by the lack of homogeneity in military means. By contrast, we noticed that the historically large US defence expenditures were one of the major reasons for the US global hegemony during Cold war and afterwards. We also examine the implica- tions that defence expenditures have on military industry, macroeconomic perfor- mance and geopolitics and the correlation that arises among them.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
42009. Has Sovereignty Eroded?
- Author:
- Binneh S. Minteh
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- This paper argues that globalization and interdependence has contributed to the “contingent maneuvering” of states with sovereignty from an economic perspective, whilst nuclear non-proliferation, security, survival, and rising nationalism established states as prominent actors on the global stage from a political perspective. The paper proceeds with an Introduction and Background Information of the State in part one. Part two gives a literature review of the state on the global political stage. In part three, the paper theorizes globalization and economic interdependence as the border- less source responsible for the decreasing power of states. Part four ponders how the contentious issues of nuclear proliferation, residual nationalism and non state actors contributed to the erosion of sovereignty for reasons of security and survival. And in part five, I ponder the theoretical implications and give concluding remarks.
- Topic:
- Security, Globalization, Nationalism, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42010. Constraints on Aid Conditionality: The case of the European Commission and the Palestinian Authority
- Author:
- Guy Burton
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- Donors tend to be perceived as more powerful actors than the recipients in relation to foreign aid. However, this article presents a contrary example through the donor- recipient relationship between the European Commission (EC) and the Palestinian Authority (PA) during 2006-07. Drawing on previous scholarship and the EC-PA case, the article notes the roles played by recipients, third parties and donors in limiting conditionality. In addition to these actor-oriented explanations, the article draws attention to the constraining effect that structure (in the form of constant and changing local political contexts and actor preferences) can play to limit aid conditionality. The article concludes with an observation on the continuing relevance of conditionality in general and a recommendation for further research on the role of structure in limiting conditions in relation to aid.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Hamas, and Palestinian Authority
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
42011. A Case Study of China’s Membership of the World Trade Organization: Implications on Sovereignty
- Author:
- Binneh S. Minteh
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- Since becoming a member of the World Trade Organization, China embarked on sever- al commitments to become a key player on the international economic stage. This pa- per is a case study of China’s membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the implications on Chinese sovereignty. Theorizing China’s historical evolution amid concerns of sovereignty, the paper looks at China’s Regime Commitment and Compli- ance in the WTO, major Compliance and Commitment Concerns with China in the Or- ganization. China may have complied with some of its commitments particularly in the service area. The paper distinctively concludes that China’s membership of the organi- zation has forced it to share power with other actor whilst protecting the interest of its citizens on the global stage.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Sovereignty, World Trade Organization, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
42012. Terrorism as Genocide: Killing with “Intent”
- Author:
- Ashlie Perry
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- It is plausible that terrorism can manifest itself as a form of genocide. Using Raphael Lemkin’s definition of genocide and the UN Genocide Convention’s definition of genocide, non-state and state terrorism are assessed as a form of genocide. Commonalities found in the definitions of both genocide and terrorism supports the argument. The psychology of terrorism and Lemkin’s psychology of genocide describe similar motivations of perpetrators. The September 11th attacks and the U.S. invasion of Iraq are used as case studies to illustrate that terrorism can result in genocide or genocidal acts. Framing acts of terrorism as genocide allows for prosecution in international courts and brings a new perspective to the concept of killing with intent.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Terrorism, United Nations, Violence, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42013. Iran at the Center of Chaos Scenarios
- Author:
- Atilla Sandikli and Bilgehan Emeklier
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
- Abstract:
- The Middle East region has undergone a rapid transformation period in recent years. Iran’s nuclear program may bring the US-Iranian relations to the verge of close combat. Any Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities may trigger a series of conflicts. Due to the sanctions imposed upon Iran because of its nuclear program, the country is getting more and more isolated and feels under threat. What could be the possible reactions of an Iran that sees itself as threatened? The US withdrew from Iraq and as a result of the popular movements, the Middle East administrations are changing hands one by one. The region has started to teem with uncertainties and risks. On one hand, there is a wish for freedom, democracy, human rights, rule of law, free market, and fair income distribution. On the other hand, an abundance of conflicts and blood is being seen. What will these developments bring about? Could Iran, as an important player in the area, transform this uncertainty into an opportunity for itself? This report named “Iran at the Center of Chaos Scenarios” focuses on paradigms which direct Iran’s geopolitical features and foreign policy, paying particular attention to elements of continuity, drastic differences and ruptures in Iran. There are certain scenarios on how Iran, which feels under threat, will evaluate and make use of sensitivities and opportunities appearing with the US withdrawal from Iraq and the Arab Spring. The report also pays special emphasis to the fact that Iran stands at the center of all these scenarios, potentially leading to chaos in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Social Movement, Geopolitics, and Arab Spring
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
42014. Turkish Societal Perceptions Concerning Combat Against PKK Terrorism
- Author:
- Salih Akyürek and Mehmet Ali Yilmaz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
- Abstract:
- During 2008-2009, BILGESAM conducted a thorough research in which 8,607 were polled from 17 different eastern and south-eastern provinces, along with a relatively high number of migrants of these regions in Istanbul and Mersin, and this research was presented under the title, “A Sociological Analysis of the South-eastern Question”. Later, results from this inquiry were incorporated into the, “What are the Kurds and Zazas thinking about? Perceptions on Common Values and Symbols” report and this report was presented to the public. Concerning the democratic opening process was BILGESAM’s publication of (Ret.) Ambassador Özdem Sanberk’s analysis, “Democratization, Political and Social Solidarity Opening for the Solution of the Kurdish Question” and the Wise Men Board report, “The Democratic Opening and Social Perceptions”. During the 2009-2010 period and within the eastern and south-eastern parts of Anatolia where a majority of Kurds resides, BILGESAM conducted a survey in 19 provinces and migrant-heavy Mersin, along with 5 provinces in the western part of Turkey, where 192 people in total were interviewed as to establish a comprehensive sampling as possible. Consequently, these interview results were published within the book, “Kurds in Turkey and Social Perceptions”. In order to ascertain the ethnic/religious composition of regional neighborhoods where Kurdish majorities reside, BILGESAM published the 2010 report, “The Ethnic and Religious Identity Composition of 19 Turkish Provinces in the Eastern and South-eastern parts of Anatolia”. BILGESAM, trying to partake in the resolution of the Kurdish Question has developed a comprehensive strategy that takes into consideration four different dimensions of the issue. This strategy was encapsulated in a Wise Men Board report and its contents made available for the public and decision-makers’ benefit in 2011 with the title, “Turkey’s Counter-Terrorism Strategy against the PKK”. Following up this report, and to complement its religious/ethnic lines of argument, was the “Conflict Resolution Approaches and the Kurdish Question in Turkey” report. With this new survey report, BILGESAM is continuing to follow the developments around the Kurdish Question. To understand and quantify the societal perception of the Turkish state’s counter terror operations and the democratic opening process, BILGESAM surveyed 2922 people via an online poll and is presenting its findings now in the “Turkish Societal Perceptions Concerning Combat against PKK Terrorism” report. This report tried to be as thorough as possible and many sub-layers of analysis were entertained for achieving a holistic analysis as possible. Among some of the sub-sections were: the desire for Turks and Kurds to live together in Turkey, the KCK arrests, the democratic opening process, counter terrorism and state policies, military operations against terrorism, foreign support for the PKK, the effects of terror acts in the regions and societal perceptions on solution proposals of Kurdish Question. The report “Turkish Societal Perceptions Concerning Combat against PKK Terrorism” was originally published in Turkish and presented to the public through a press conference that took place at BILGESAM headquarters in September 2012.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Terrorism, Minorities, and PKK
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
42015. Russia's Arab Spring Policy
- Author:
- Muharrem Erenler
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
- Abstract:
- One of the regions where Russia‟s interests are constant and historic is the Middle East, which has been being shaken by revolutions and insurgencies since January 2011. Being hesitant between supporting the desire of protestors to overthrow their long-ruling leaders and aligning with the stable authoritarian regimes of the Middle East, Russia has so far failed to adopt a consistent policy. Moreover, by following a low profile policy, Moscow seems indifferent to using the regimes changes as an opportunity to penetrate the region and revive its wading influence in the Middle East. Russia‟s inflexible foreign policy mentality, secondary importance of the Middle East in Russian foreign policy, perception of Arab Spring as a tool of outside powers, and the unrest it could arouse in motherland (as well as near abroad) could account for Moscow‟s reluctance to adopt a proactive role in reorganization of the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Geopolitics, Arab Spring, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Arab Countries
42016. Public Diplomacy: A Remedy for NATO's Image Problem
- Author:
- Emine Akçadağ Alagöz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
- Abstract:
- The new security threats that have appeared after the Cold War have showed that NATO still matters in helping to ensure global security. However, NATO‟s image has recently been deteriorating and its credibility has been damaged. That is why an effective public diplomacy seems indispensable to overcome this problem. Even though NATO has tried to implement an active public diplomacy since 2004 through its Public Diplomacy Division, the efforts seem to not yet be fulfilling. Thus, it is crucial for the Alliance to reshape its public diplomacy strategy.
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, Public Opinion, Alliance, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
42017. Bosnian General Elections of 2010 and the Post-Election Crisis
- Author:
- Karić Mirsad
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the 2010 general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and the post-election crisis. Currently, Bosnia‟s political system is the result of the Dayton Accord that stopped the Bosnian war in 1995. Bosnia is described as a country with a multi-party system that regularly holds free, fair, and competitive elections. The 2010 elections brought significant changes to the composition of legislative assemblies at the cantonal, entity, and state levels. SNSD1 continued to dominate among the Bosnian Serbs, while HDZ2 and HDZ 19903 received the highest votes in the Croat majority areas. SDP,4 as only self-declared multi-ethnic party, won the majority of votes among Bosniaks. SDA5 secured almost the same number of seats while the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina6 suffered the biggest loss. The phenomenon of each constituent people voting for their respective ethnic parties continues to characterize Bosnia‟s elections. Election results showed that there must be a wide range of political parties creating a parliamentary majority due to a rather complicated way of decision-making and law-passing procedures in Bosnia‟s political system. It triggered several waves of political crises since the leaders of political parties were not able to agree on a Prime Minister and other ministerial posts.
- Topic:
- Politics, Law, Elections, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina
42018. Nobody's Century: The American Proposal in Post-Imperial Times
- Author:
- Chas W. Freeman Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- We are entering a novel period in our history–one in which the United States will be both fiscally constrained and also unable to call the shots in many places around the globe. Let me try to set the stage for your discussions by raising some difficult questions for you to ponder.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Globalization, Hegemony, and World System
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
42019. Japan’s Approaches to DefenseTransparency: Perspectivesfrom the Japanese and Chinese Defense Establishments
- Author:
- John Fei
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Contemporary Japanese approaches to defense transparency are informed by history, relations with external states, the domestic political configuration of institutions, and state–society interactions. Analysts from the Japanese defense establishment agree that greater levels of transparency are inherently good, while their counterparts from China note the importance of political and diplomatic relations in increasing the credibility of defense transparency efforts. There is a consensus that expectations of defense transparency should be realistic, and the emphasis should be on bilateral efforts to promote defense transparency.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, and Asia
42020. Chinese Perspectives on Japan’s Defense Transparency
- Author:
- Teng Jianqun
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- In China, discussions of defense transparency usually revolve around China’s defense affairs and those of its counterparts, with little comment on the actions of other countries. This brief touches upon the basic evolution of Japan’s defense transparency and its current status, and analyzes three differing Chinese perspectives on Japan’s defense transparency.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, and Asia
42021. The Role of the Japanese Diet in Promoting Defense Transparency
- Author:
- Jeffrey Kwong
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- While it is clear that Japan’s legislative body, the Diet, is empowered in budgeting and oversight mechanisms, there is no consensus on whether the Diet wields actual power in influencing defense policy and whether the Diet’s role in defense policy approaches that of other democratic legislative systems. In this policy brief, we first outline the substantial budgetary and oversight responsibilities carried out by the Diet’s ruling coalition. Second, we suggest a framework to strengthen the role of the Diet in improving defense transparency. In particular, we look at the coalitional nature of Japanese party politics, changing ideologies in the midst of constant party renaming and reorganization, and the lack of party defense policy platforms. We also examine the relationship of Diet members to two important actors in Japanese politics: 1) the media; and 2) the ruling coalition; in particular, the Diet’s relationship to the Prime Minister.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Politics, Budget, Transparency, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
42022. Japanese Bureaucratic Transparency
- Author:
- T. J. Pempel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- This brief examines the issue of transparency during and after the period of political dominance by the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP) which ruled with only a brief nine-month interruption from 1955–2009. It highlights two related but analytically separate dimensions of governmental transparency—transparency in decision-making processes and transparency in official policies. The first concentrates on the public visibility of how agencies decide on matters under their jurisdiction; the second focuses on how visible actual government policies are to those most affected by them and to the general citizenry. I argue that Japanese agencies have been far more open on policy content than on the processes by which those decisions were reached. In addition, this brief examines recent changes designed to foster greater transparency in both process and policy, including a Freedom of Information Act, e-government provisions, enhanced roles for parliamentary inquiry, a greater role for nongovernmental organizations, and other measures. It also highlights the broad shifts in government attitudes toward transparency under the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which has governed since 2009.
- Topic:
- Government, Domestic Politics, Transparency, Bureaucracy, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
42023. China’s Energy Security Dilemma
- Author:
- Jenny Lin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- China’s “economic miracle” and its energy dilemma stem from the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 30 year old policy to achieve “wealth for country first.” Beijing has bundled economic development, energy, science & technology-related policies as matters of national security. As a result, China’s current sense of energy and economic insecurity may be analyzed as a product of its decades-long off-balanced policies towards development.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, Economic Development, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
42024. A New Narrative for the U.S.-Japan Alliance
- Author:
- Dana White
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- Former Congressional staff, Dana White, presents a new narrative for the U.S. – Japan alliance. The report addresses the Futenma issue and reallocation of U.S. forces in Japan as well as new areas for non-traditional security cooperation. In the Asian century, the fates of Japan and the United States are inextricably linked. Tokyo and Washington collaboration must adopt a whole of government approach to fare well in this century.
- Topic:
- Government, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and United States of America
42025. Counter A2/AD in Japan – U.S. Defense Cooperation: Toward ‘Allied Air-Sea Battle’
- Author:
- Sugio Takahashi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- The balance of power in the Asia – Pacific is rapidly shifting. The U.S. and Japan share concerns over China’s increasing military spending and lack of military transparency. This report analyzes the implications of Japan’s National Defense Policy Guidelines 2010 for Japan’s role in the Pacific and for the future of U.S. – Japan defense cooperation.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Military Spending, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
42026. Iran’s Nuclear Program: A Case Study in Successful U.S.-Japan Alliance Management
- Author:
- Vance Serchuk
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- Speaking at Suntory Hall in Tokyo during his inaugural visit to the Asia-Pacific region as President of the United States, Barack Obama in November 2009 affirmed his Administration’s commitment to “an enduring and revitalized alliance between the United States and Japan.” Noting the impending 60th anniversary of the alliance, President Obama pledged to “deepen” the ties between Washington and Tokyo as a cornerstone of a broader strategy of reengagement with the region. At the same time, Obama cast the U.S.-Japan alliance in global terms, noting Japan’s “important contributions to stability around the world—from reconstruction to Iraq, to combating piracy off the Horn of Africa, to assistance for the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America
42027. The Arctic and Natural Gas in Northeast Asia’s Energy Future
- Author:
- Isabella Mroczkowski and L. C. Russell Hsiao
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- The International Energy Outlook 2011 published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that world energy consumption will grow by 53 percent from 2008 to 2035. Asia’s rapidly growing economies will be the primary drivers of increasing global energy demand. By 2035, China’s and India’s combined energy use are projected to account for 31 percent of total world energy consumption. If current projections hold, by some estimates natural gas may make up to 60 percent of the region’s energy mix by 2035. New shipping routes and energy supplies in the Arctic have the potential to multiply the utility of gas in the region’s future energy mix.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- China, India, Asia, Northeast Asia, Arctic, and United States of America
42028. Healing the Legacies of Conflict in Afghanistan: Community Voices on Justice, Peace and Reconciliation
- Author:
- Emily Winterbotham
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
- Abstract:
- This paper synthesises the findings from AREU's Legacies of Conflect research project from across the Bamiyan, Ghazni and Kabul research sites, in search of broadly acceptable approaches to address the legacies of conflict and support reconciliation in the country. It also examines the political context for transitional justice and reconciliation and considers which policies might need to be changed or adopted. The research found that many Afghans continue to struggle with the legacies of their wartime experiences. They usually saw peace and justice as complementary, and not as alternatives to each other. Justice was often widely conceived to include processes of recognition and recompense, and not simply criminal trials or punitive measures. There was a widespread desire for a strong and caring government that could drive a justice process and also negotiate for a peace that would not only end the insurgency, but reconcile Afghanistan’s different groups. However, a widespread pessimism prevailed about the prospect of this occurring in the near future. In the meantime, certain initiatives—whether locally-driven or at the national level—have the potential to provide a measure of comfort to conflict victims while paving the way for a more enduring peace.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Peace, Justice, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
42029. Justice and peacebuilding in post-conflict situations
- Author:
- Lesley Connolly
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- After the 1991-2001 civil war, Sierra Leone employed a new model of transitional justice, concurrently utilising a Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and a Special Court. Encouragingly, this process incorporated special gender considerations, by expanding the mandate of both the TRC and Special Court to address sexual violence and encourage women to come forward and testify without fear of retribution. Both these institutions have been praised for successfully fulfilling their specific mandates and for aiding the country’s transition to peace. However, some parts of Sierra Leone’s society were left largely untouched by the process, as evidenced by widespread discrimination and gender inequalities which still occur today. It is proposed that this is not just a fault of Sierra Leone’s approach, but that it is an inherent flaw of the transitional justice process as a whole as the process is not suitable for use in addressing the root causes of conflict. For this reason, it is argued that a new mechanism of transitional justice, one which incorporates a peacebuilding process, would better address the needs of a post-conflict society. This would be done by focusing on transformation and promoting a long-term sustainable peace.
- Topic:
- Transitional Justice, Peace, Justice, Reconciliation, Truth, and Post-Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sierra Leone
42030. Being similar, different and coexistent
- Author:
- Jannie Malan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Remarkably meaningful sayings that have emerged out of real life in Africa highlight our inherent interrelatedness as fellow human beings. In the life situations where we happen to find ourselves, there are similarities that bind us together, but also differences that tend to drive us apart. When a group of us becomes concerned about who we are, and who others are, such an ‘identity’ search may tempt us to think that our own group is better than other groups. Various pressures from our cultures, groups and personalities can create and strengthen feelings and habits of being against other groups. It is possible, however, to be liberated from such polarisation and to become turned towards others. The valid belongingness to one’s own group can be retained and promoted, but dominating and discriminating own-groupishness should be rejected. A transformation from contraexistential to coexistential mindsets and attitudes can be experienced, and such inner changes can obviously lead to changed interaction with others. It should constantly be emphasised, however, that switching to coexisting does not at all mean going to the extreme of loving-kindness. According to the situation, coexistence may range from merely understanding each other, and perhaps agreeing to differ, to cooperating in real friendship or intimate love. Findings used in this paper were obtained from fieldwork research in communities who have managed to transform brutal, homicidal conflicts into peaceful cooperation. What they shared about the ways they talked things out, understood and trusted each other, changed their mindsets and attitudes, and began doing things together showed clearly that a realistic level of coexistence can become a lived reality where it was never expected. During follow-up visits they frankly shared their experience of new problems but also of sustained coexistential relations.
- Topic:
- Social Cohesion, Identity, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Africa
42031. SACU Revenue Sharing Formula: Towards a Development Agreement
- Author:
- Masedi Motswapong and Roman Grynberg
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- The South African Customs Union (SACU) Revenue Sharing Formula (RSF) has been revised substantively twice; once in 1969 and in 1994-2002 since the creation of the customs union in 1910 and each time the changes in the treaty were a reflection of the historic changes occurring in Southern Africa. The apartheid regime created a RSF that served to increase the share of revenue of Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland (BLS), leaving the South African share as a residual of revenues. As this made South Africa a residual claimant it was unsustainable and required reform in the post-apartheid era. The 2002 formula increased the share to the Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BNLS) and removed South Africa as a residual claimant but did not change the fundamental economic relationship between members. While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) supports orthodox fiscal adjustment imbalances this paper argues that the order of magnitude makes those adjustment implausible and a new political arrangement is needed between South Africa and Lesotho and Swaziland to create a viable way forward for Southern African Development Community (SADC). It is argued that even in the case of Botswana and Namibia a new developmental formula, based on investing SACU revenues for regional and national development projects is needed to relieve those countries that have suffered the effects of polarization.
- Topic:
- Development, Regional Cooperation, Regional Integration, Economic Development, Integration, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, and Botswana
42032. Turkey-NATO Relations at the 60th Anniversary
- Author:
- Sofia Hafdell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- After 60 years of membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Turkey’s role in the alliance stands strong amid new security threats and challenging regional change. It also largely corresponds to the New Strategic Concept of the 2010 Lisbon Summit, outlining the range of principles to which the members must adopt in order to continue effective cooperation and meet new responses, capabilities and partners (NATO, 2010). In light of this, Turkey’s strategic geography is crucial for the new security environment in the Euro-Atlantic region and beyond. Taking the recent examples of the intervention in Libya and the missile defense system, this policy update will highlight the importance of Turkey’s role within NATO regardless of initial foreign policy disagreements with the alliance and recent negative trends in Turkish public opinion towards the West.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Public Opinion, and History
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Mediterranean
42033. CHINA SPOOKING ALLIES WITH THE SEE-SAW BETWEEN SOFT AND HARD POWER
- Author:
- Richard Rousseau
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Chinese leaders spend considerable time and energy in assuring the international community that they have no reason to be afraid of China’s “peaceful rise” and rapid emergence as one of the most important economic and diplomatic players on the international stage. Many countries, however, equate China’s growing economic might with greater political influence and are less accepting of the benign image that Beijing now wants to portray to the world. Although China’s current policy may appear at first impression to be a rather soft variety of imperialism, it is still perceived by many as “hard” imperialism. There are now mounting signs that other countries, especially China’s neighbors, are not totally convinced of Beijing’s proclaimed benevolent intent. Those countries are presently taking measures to protect themselves in case China’s “soft” imperialism eventually turns out to be more aggressive or of the “hard power” variety.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Imperialism, International Cooperation, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Cambodia, Australia, and Myanmar
42034. Drones in Our World, part II: The Technicalities
- Author:
- Whitney Grespin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- In an effort to provide context for this series, this piece will focus on specific equipment competencies that have expanded the capabilities of drones.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Drones
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42035. No Life Left Untouched by Human Trafficking
- Author:
- Chrisella Sagers
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- A special session of the United Nations General Assembly made headlines last week with a disheartening announcement – 2.4 million people today, across the globe, are victims of human trafficking. Of those, 80 percent are being forced into sexual slavery, and 17 percent are enslaved into forced labor. Even the statistic of 2.4 million people does not truly reflect the impact that this phenomenon has; the number only represents the souls caught up at any given time, but does not track those who escaped their living nightmares and found freedom. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, human trafficking is “the acquisition of people by improper means such as force, fraud, or deception, with the aim of exploiting them.” Some prefer to dispense with the seemingly whitewashed term and refer to the practice as modern-day slavery. No country is unaffected. Because of the way traffickers transport their “goods,” the human cargo often follows the same shipping lines as illegal drugs. It is one of the world’s most lucrative forms of organized crime, creating a draw for cartels seeking to diversify as well as for individual pimps on the street. Women make up nearly two-thirds of the world’s trafficked persons, and it is shockingly easy to sell these women for sex. Madrid police began an investigation last month into a prostitution ring, in which the pimps violently forced the women into sex slavery. The victims were chained to pipes and beaten into submission, and if they tried to escape or failed to pay their pimps, bar codes were tattooed onto their wrists.
- Topic:
- Narcotics Trafficking, Sex Trafficking, Slavery, Sexual Violence, and Human Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42036. Get "Smart": Paving the Way To A More Efficient Alliance
- Author:
- Young Atlanticists
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen's concept of Smart Defense, defined as "ensuring greater security, for less money, by working together with more flexibility," will be a hot topic at the NATO Summit in Chicago. The Secretary General has stressed that to successfully maintain its strength amid shrinking defense budgets and economic austerity, NATO "must prioritize... must specialize... and must seek multinational solutions." The European Union, much of its membership overlapping with NATO, has endeavored to accomplish a similar task through pooling and sharing, but concerns over sovereignty have severely limited progress. This policy memo provides several recommendations on how NATO can overcome this roadblock to secure state participation in the Smart Defense initiative. As military cooperation remains a sensitive issue, the success of Smart Defense will depend on how well NATO packages and markets these projects. NATO leadership must prove Smart Defense’s utility and dynamism while demonstrating the financial and strategic benefits to be gained by swift and comprehensive implementation. In order to create attractive projects, NATO will have to focus on four policy areas: 1) rework its structure to facilitate a more cooperative environment, 2) provide mechanisms to ensure efficiency, 3) stimulate and secure connections between like-minded states, and 4) find creative ways to include non-NATO actors in Smart Defense projects. It is through these initiatives that Smart Defense’s prospects for success can be raised; a success which is vital if NATO is to become the more efficient and interoperable alliance that its members need.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
42037. Pakistan Remains A Question Mark in Lead Up to NATO Summit
- Author:
- Boris Macguire
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- After a decade of war in Afghanistan, world leaders will arrive at May’s NATO Summit in Chicago having finally articulated a plan to transfer control of security to Afghan forces. There has also been increasing pressure on President Obama and the alliance’s leaders to use the summit to announce a timetable for the second stage of the endgame process – the actual extraction of NATO forces. But Pakistan, which has perhaps the greatest stake in NATO’s exit and the endurance of a negotiated settlement with Taliban, has yet to publicly articulate a clear and unified position on the process. Instead, Pakistan has initiated a “strategic pause” in relations, appointing a parliamentary committee on national security to review the country’s official engagement with the United States and NATO. Until the results of the review and the status of U.S.-Pakistan relations are clarified, President Obama and NATO leaders will be severely restricted in their ability to formulate a realistic withdrawal timeline.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Europe, North Atlantic, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
42038. Filling the Values Vacuum: The Role of Western Business in Emerging Markets
- Author:
- James P. Cain
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Dubai markets itself as the place where “the developed world and the emerging world meet”. Judging by the diversity amongst the almost 500,000 visitors to the Dubai Mall one recent April Saturday, the label appears to fit. Teeming with Asians, Indians, Eastern and Western Europeans, West Africans, neighbors from the Gulf and even a few Americans, the mostly under-30 crowds displayed the commercial frenzy that has been in short supply in the West in recent years. Exploring the ground level of the Mall, just across from the famous Dubai fountains and the 163-story Burj Khalifa, I was delighted to discover that the most popular and packed restaurant concept did not showcase a Mediterranean, Italian, or French moniker but a uniquely American one—Texas Roadhouse. Hand-cut steaks, Texas-size rib combos, and country dinners filled patron’s plates while the line-dancing wait staff that propelled this Kentucky-based chain to popularity in the U.S. a few years ago delighted hungry customers this April afternoon. As growth, urbanization, and megacity development proceed in Asia, Latin America, the former Soviet states, the Middle East and even Africa, Western consumer and retail brands are being met with surprisingly robust popularity. At the recent Gulf Food show not far from the Dubai Mall, a medium-sized U.S. company was awarded “World’s Best New Halal Food”. There is an immensely important lesson here: as Western governments curb spending on foreign aid, development assistance and commercial programs, a “values vacuum” is developing into which institutions, cultures and governments are stepping to promote their own ideologies and cultural values, or lack thereof. Already the largest trading partner in many South American countries, China built and paid for a $105 million soccer stadium in Costa Rica, but only after government officials waived the country’s tough labor laws. Russian companies are gobbling up natural resources in Africa as well as energy, infrastructure and telecommunications assets in Ukraine and Kazakhstan. With influence from Venezuela and its ally Iran, the newly formed “Community of Latin American and Caribbean States” proudly excludes America and Canada.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42039. Greek Entrepreneurs to the Rescue: How to Reinvent the Greek Economy after the Sovereign Debt Crisis
- Author:
- Nasos Mihalakas
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Greek dimension of the EU sovereign debt crisis is by now well known to all. Investor anxiety over excessive national debt throughout the EU led to demands for higher interest rates from several governments with higher debt levels and current account deficits. This in turn made it difficult for some governments to finance further budget deficits and service existing debt. Unable to pay for its public debt, the Greek government turned to the EU for financial assistance. The first bailout package was approved on May 2010, which provided the Greek government with a three-year, €110 billion loan. In February 2012, the lending troika (EU, IMF, and ECB) eventually agreed to provide a second bailout package worth €130 billion. This second package included an agreement with banks to "voluntarily" accept a 53.5 percent write-off of some Greek debt, the equivalent of €100 billion, to reduce the country's debt level from €340 billion to €240 billion – or 120.5 percent of GDP – by 2020. So far, all the reforms forced upon Greece centers on how to reduce the government budget. These reforms include reducing the minimum wage for public (and therefore, also private) sector employees by 22 percent, cutting benefits to pensioners and health-care recipients, reducing the government payroll by laying off 150,000 public sector employees by 2015, privatizing government companies, and opening up some industries that were closed to competition. For now, Greece has been brought back from the brink of bankruptcy. Though safe for now, the country could find itself struggling to meet the strict conditions outlined in the second bailout agreement if key structural reforms don’t take place. It is not too late for the crisis to serve as an opportunity.
- Topic:
- Debt, Financial Crisis, European Union, and IMF
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
42040. South Sudan Women Face Human Rights Violations
- Author:
- Yobu Annet
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- A woman with her two-week-old baby was dragged out of her home at gun point in April at Hai-Mauna residential area over issues of domestic violence. In the process, Rose Mary Adare broke her finger as she was being flogged by the plainclothes, h armed men who were brought by the husband. “My husband has thrown me out of the house with my kids because he has a newly wedded wife. This has been his habit, chasing women out of the house, whenever he gets a new wife”, she said. As it started raining, the woman took off with her little baby and her two older children to a makeshift shelter that was just across what used to be her home. Michael Amule Joseph, Rose Adare's husband and the Commissioner General for the State Revenue Authority, drove off with the armed men, leaving onlookers wondering as to why a constitional post holder entrusted with a national responsibility had to drag the wife and the newly born baby out of the house at gun point. An eye witness says the arms scared the neigbours who intended to run to the rescue of the woman. “We wanted him to calm down so that we talk to both of them”, said a neighbour. Rose Adare had been married for a period of seven years, saying that the time has been hell on earth. “I tried complaining to my parents but they couldn’t help me out. When I approached Munuki Police station in order to help me, the police authorities advised me to settle the issues with relatives”. Lilian Riziq, the President and Chief Execitive Officer of South Sudan Women Empowerment Network, said it is unfortunate that South Sudan does not have family laws that protect women. They are always referred to the customary courts which are normally biased against the women, putting women on the wrong side in cases of domestic violence. A concerned citizen, who termed this a human rights violation, urged men not to behave inhumanely against their wives and children. “We are supposed to protect women but not to abuse them nor intemidate them when they say something. Why should armed men involve themselves into domestic issues? If the armed men have failed to maintain law and order, then, who will protect the civilians?” he asked.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Women, and Gender Based Violence
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
42041. Drones in Our World, Part III: Non-Kinetic Solutions
- Author:
- Whitney Grespin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Drone strikes on militants capture the negative headlines, but increasingly UAVs are winning fans amongst war fighters and civilians by other means. From providing eyes in the sky to taking on high-risk life support missions, the use of unmanned platforms is growing with no slowdown in sight. There are five fronts where UAVs are supporting the troops in ways that exploit their capabilities beyond offensive missions: surveillance/reconnaissance, intelligence, logistics, chronological reach back, and perhaps most surprisingly, community engagement. While context specific intelligence analysis is inseparable from its acquisition via surveillance and reconnaissance missions, it is separable for the purpose of this discussion about UAVs and how they are challenging traditional practices. UAVs can be both tactical and strategic assets – they are not only informing today’s missions, and they do not solely provide data that informs theater level decision making. These systems are achieving both tactical and strategic objectives, and they are sometimes doing so with the same machine in the same mission.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Drones
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42042. Women in Special Forces: The Debate on Combat Exclusion
- Author:
- Lani Hay
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Combat Exclusion Policy is a U.S. congressional policy based on a 1988 Department of Defense restriction on women’s military service that created the “Risk Rule” for assignment of women in the military, preventing women from being assigned to units that had the risk of exposure to direct combat, hostile fire, or capture. The policy has been revised over the past 24 years but still precludes women from being assigned to direct ground combat units such as serving at the battalion level, as infantry, and in the Special Forces. Women’s roles supporting military missions have significantly evolved during the past ten years of warfare in Iraq and Afghanistan. The realities of modern day warfare and currently fighting in an asymmetric environment have women fighting on the front lines in specialty positions such as medics, mechanics, and military police. Additionally, to avoid the Combat Exclusion Policy as written, women are being “attached to” and not “assigned to” battalions as intelligence officers and communications officers and yet are not getting any credit for being in combat arms. Not allowing women the opportunity to receive acknowledgement for their combat experience and contributions to front-line battalions ultimately denies them from choice assignments and hinders their career advancement opportunities. The recent partial lift of the Combat Exclusion Policy, currently under consideration, will now allow women to be “assigned to” jobs at the battalion level. However, it continues to prevent women from serving as infantry or in the Special Forces. This partial lift is the first time the Department of Defense has recognized the contributions that our female service members have been and will continue to contribute to our front line combat units, and indicates that future changes to this 24-year old Department of Defense restriction are being considered. This shows signs of progress, but until the Combat Exclusion Policy is completely lifted the military will not be able to establish a level playing field for qualified women to enter all military positions and specialties, which will greatly impact the realities and necessities of modern day warfare.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Military Affairs, Feminism, Military Service, and Civil-Military Relations
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42043. Missile Defense System Negotiations: Washington-Warsaw-Moscow Triangle
- Author:
- Richard Rousseau
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- When in March 1983 Ronald Reagan announced the initial plans to build a missile defense system purported to be able to “intercept and destroy strategic ballistic missiles before they reached our [U.S.] own soil or that of our allies,” he in reality proclaimed the end of the deterrence and so called “balance of terror” doctrines which had formed the basis of the relations between the United States and the Soviet Union during what is known as the Cold War. The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), more commonly known at the time as "Star Wars," reformulated the power equation that had underpinned the “détente" period (1971-80). This project was abandoned with the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union in1991, which marked the end of the Cold War. However, more than ten years later, President George W. Bush reactivated it, signing bilateral agreements with the Czech Republic and Poland for the deployment of a radar system and advanced land based missile interceptors. With the election of President Barack Obama, the missile defense system was transformed from a bilateral project to a multilateral one, directly involving European allies and the very structure of the NATO alliance. The Kremlin strongly opposed the Euro-American missile deployment project, first in the 1980s and again into the 21th Century. Today as in the past, Russia’s complaints and rhetoric remain basically unchanged. It claims that the shield would compromise the effectiveness of the Russian long-range nuclear arsenal, thus drastically alter the balance of power with the West. A turning point seemed to have taken place at the NATO summit in Lisbon in November 2010. Following a lively debate among diplomats, the European allies unanimously signed an agreement for the deployment of a missile defense system, which would provide “full coverage” of the Alliance area by 2020. More importantly, the final declaration of the summit heralded the birth of “cooperation with Russia in a spirit of reciprocity, maximum transparency and mutual confidence.” However, such good intentions and noble sentiments are regarded as mere words by some, as there is no serious likelihood that both sides will cooperate on a joint defense project of this nature.
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Missile Defense
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Poland, North America, and United States of America
42044. The Foreign Policy Case For Senate Reform
- Author:
- Paul Nadeau
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- In a famous story about the creation of the Senate, Thomas Jefferson and George Washington were debating a possible upper legislative chamber over tea, and Jefferson wanted to know why it was necessary to create an undemocratic body like the Senate. In response, Washington asked Jefferson why he had poured some of his tea into a saucer. “To cool it,” Jefferson answered, to which Washington replied “Even so, we pour legislation into the senatorial saucer to cool it.” The story (even if it might be apocryphal) illustrates that the slowness and deliberation of the Senate were intentional and designed to offset the popular passions that might govern the House of Representatives. The Senate’s rules were designed to emulate a gentleman’s club (such as the filibuster, which originated from the idea that gentlemen would have the good sense to limit the length of their speeches and that it would be rude to cut them off) but have become archaic as the body changed from a club to a typical legislative chamber. The rules of the Senate as they are currently designed have resulted in giving the opposition a trump card that is usually disproportionate to their legislative power. While its original structure incentivized moderation and compromise, the electoral system that populates its membership has incentivized partisanship. As a result the Senate has changed its form but not its function. The Senate can be deferential and deliberate or it can be factional and partisan, but it can’t be both.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42045. From Washington to Seoul: Advancing Nuclear Security Objectives
- Author:
- Olexander Motsyk
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- lexander Motsyk is Ambassador of Ukraine to the U.S. Being a career diplomat, Mr. Motsyk has worked for more than 30 years in the field of foreign relations. Prior to his assignment in the U.S. he served as Ambassador of Ukraine to Turkey and Poland. His diplomatic career also includes such positions as First Deputy Foreign Minister as well as Foreign Policy Advisor to the President of Ukraine. His work was marked by the Commander Cross and Star of the Order of Merit of the Republic of Poland (2010), The Order of Merit, II Degree (2006) and The Order of Justice, I Degree, of the World Jurist Association (2005). In this op-ed Mr. Motsyk discusses Ukraine’s contribution to global nuclear safety and security and importance of international cooperation to make the world a safer place to live in.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Safety
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42046. Partners in Democracy, Partners in Security: NATO and the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Young Atlanticists
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Arab Spring has created significant challenges and unprecedented opportunities for NATO and its partners in the Mediterranean region. New security issues have emerged alongside new regimes and regional instability looms. State failure, civil conflict, and institutional collapse could present a number of major security threats, among them the creation of a refugee crisis affecting NATO members, increased illegal arms trafficking, and a breeding ground for militant groups in a Somali-like setting near European shores. These threats highlight the need for NATO to set up a plan for fostering regional stability and developing good relations with new and emerging leaders. The changing nature of regional security and Arab governance demands a multi-faceted approach which requires NATO to draw on expertise beyond its own, especially in empowering civil society and youth groups that are the cornerstone of sustainable democracy. Such new challenges require new partnerships and this memo intends to convey two core recommendations: restructure the Mediterranean Dialogue (MD) to allow for a more incentivized and effective partnership, and partner with other institutional actors to enable NATO to offer a more comprehensive assistance package. NATO should play to its strengths while working with organizations that specialize in other tasks that are necessary to meet these goals. Only robust partnerships will allow NATO
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Civil Society, Refugee Crisis, and Arab Spring
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Middle East, and North America
42047. World Grows More Peaceful - Except for the Middle East
- Author:
- Dana McKelvey
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Institute for Economics and Peace's annual Global Peace Index (GPI) reported an increase in world peace after two consecutive years of decline. The change was driven by slight reductions worldwide in terrorist acts, military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, military sophistication, and aggregate number of heavy weapons per capita. As the sixth edition of the study, the 2012 GPI ranked the peacefulness of 158 nations, marking an increase from the 2011 ranking of 153 nations. As Professor Anne-Marie Slaughter of Princeton University remarked at the GPI’s release, the study has great potential for “draw[ing] correlations” and encouraging collaboration between think tanks, universities, policymakers, and civil society in their study of global peace. The IEP will distribute the study to the World Bank, the OECD, the U.S. Congress, American University, and Club de Madrid, among other leading organizations. Professor Slaughter explained that researchers defined peacefulness not only as the absence of war or violence, but also as the absence of fear. The study addresses three major themes: the level of safety and security in society; the extent of domestic or international conflict; and the degree of militarization. The IEP researched these themes in the context of both “positive peace,” a “culture of peace” that values human rights, gender equality, democratic participation, and open communication, as well as “negative peace,” or the absence of violent conflict. In its study of “negative peace,” the GPI used twenty-three indicators, spanning topics from deaths in organized conflict, to political instability, to perceived criminality. The IEP’s Positive Peace Index (PPI), which addresses 108 countries, used twenty-one indicators categorized into eight “pillars of peace” that researchers identified as key to a peaceful society. The IEP emphasized the contrast between the PPI and other studies’ extensive focus on conflict and civil unrest. According to the IEP’s executive summary, the PPI becomes especially important during state-building, as in the recent cases of Iraq and Afghanistan. “The pillars of peace,” the summary states, “provide a foundation for thinking about how to establish the optimal environment for human wellbeing and potential to flourish.”
- Topic:
- Security, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, and Middle East
42048. What a Tangled Web: India Caught Between U.S. and Iranian Interests
- Author:
- Felix Imonti
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- India is caught between the consequences of provoking a United States driven by its fixation upon the Iranian nuclear program and by an Iran that is a major supplier of oil, providing India with access to its vital interests in Afghanistan. The best that the Ind
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America
42049. Russia's Dangerous Nuclear Legacy
- Author:
- Richard Rousseau
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The state of Russia’s civilian nuclear power should be cause the entire planet to shudder: Radioactive waste deposal sites are full to the bursting point, and many reactors are outdated and fail to meet even the most basic of safety standards. In short, as one reads between the lines, a new disaster is pending. The now-famous disaster in Japan has taken on tragic proportions and caused massive public health problems. Explosions in Japanese atomic power plants are forcing world experts to question once more the future of nuclear energy, as well as the existing and engineered safety level for various nuclear facilities around the world. Is nuclear energy “outdated”? Is it a source of energy that should be abandoned out of safety concerns? The time has arrived once again for a cold-eyed and careful assessment of nuclear energy security in the world. This is especially pressing in the case of Russia. Currently, 10 plants and 32 nuclear units are online within the territory of the Russian Federation. In considering the larger picture of Russia’s energy generation, inherent risks, and dismal safety record, neither modern nuclear reactors nor uranium-based fuels should be considered as a panacea for the country’s energy development. There are severe limitations in the development of the Russian modern nuclear energy. These are well noted in the scientific community and the mainstream media.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Nuclear Power, Public Health, and Radiological Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
42050. Storm Clouds on the Horizon: A Possible New Cold War With China
- Author:
- Paul Nash
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- “Red China’s sub fleet can prove a major threat to American ships,” wrote Albert Ravenholt for the Chicago Daily News Service in 1964, referring to Mao’s underwater menace to American naval forces assembling in the South China Sea off the coast of Vietnam. The communist submarines, supplied by the Russians, were stationed on Hainan Island, at the southernmost tip of the Chinese mainland, across the Gulf of Tonkin. At the time, China was estimated to have between 30 and 40 in operation, the fourth largest fleet after the U.S.S.R, the United States and Great Britain. Nearly 48 years on, much has changed and yet much continues on the same trajectory. When Ravenholt, who set about becoming a reporter in Shanghai in the 1940s during the Second Sino-Japanese war, died at the age of 90 in 2010, China remained Red, even though its ideological hue had turned arguably more nationalistic after three decades of rising prosperity. China has modernized its military in tandem with its economic growth. It has committed itself to significant military spending, endeavouring to catch up to the West’s technological prowess by building advanced precision-guided munitions, anti-satellite and cyber-warfare capabilities. Last year, it unveiled the Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter jet, which is expected to go into service in 2017-19. It has also set up a land-based anti-ship missile system to limit the ability of other nations to navigate freely in regional waters, including those around the disputed Paracel and Spratly Islands, which it estimates may contain the world’s fourth largest reserve of oil and natural gas.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and North America
42051. Congress Considers New Sanctions on Iran - But Why
- Author:
- Paul Nadeau
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- It is not surprising that Congress can take a more aggressive stance on foreign policy issues than the Executive: Congress rarely bears the loss in foreign policy mistakes (consider where foreign policy issues rank on voters’ lists of priorities) and that consequently gives Congress an opportunity to demonstrate leadership, since high profile issues in most other issue areas carry considerably more risk. The result is that Congress will often take a position that is contrary to that of the Executive, most frequently by adopting a more extreme position, and then either assailing the Executive for a lack of leadership when the Executive does not follow or by taking credit when the Executive adopts Congress’s position. The most recent example is the issue of Iran’s nuclear program—which is likely the only current issue where there is genuine bipartisan support, famously evidenced in the Senate’s December 2011 100-0 passage of legislation sanctioning Iran’s financial sector. So far, international sanctions, and particularly the European Union’s sanctions of Iran’s oil sector, seem to have succeeded in damaging Iran’s economy and possibly even encouraging them to negotiate, though a breakthrough has been elusive. The problem is that while the sanctions may have succeeded in crippling Iran’s (already weak) economy so far, the goal of the sanctions program is supposed to have been to convince Iran to terminate its nuclear program. On that score, it’s unclear that additional sanctions may help the American cause and it might even undermine it.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
42052. Where did all the Spartans Go?
- Author:
- Felix Imonti
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Well, the Greeks voted on June 17th, but I am confused. What did the voters say? Before the election, polls revealed that 80 percent of the people supported membership in the European Union and the continued use of the Euro. When they voted, those same people cast 52 percent of their votes for parties opposed to the adoption of the austerity program that Greeks feel is being imposed upon them by the more powerful members of the EU—which translates into Germany. Accepting the economic program is an essential agreement in order to remain in the Eurozone. The New Democracy Party garnered the largest vote with nearly 30 percent. The leader of the conservative party, Antonis Samaras, pledged to keep Greece in the Eurozone and to negotiate modifications to the austerity package that Greece must accept in order to receive an additional 240 billion Euros. Somehow, people find the promises of Antonis Samaras unreliable. When the New Democracy Party was in opposition against the socialist PASOK Party—which had accepted the program imposed upon Greece—he rejected it. His reversal leaves his position in doubt among Greeks and the politicians outside with whom he has to negotiate. In short, is he for the austerity package or against it?
- Topic:
- Elections, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Eurozone
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
42053. Serbia's New President Eyes EU Membership
- Author:
- Alex Cooper
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The new Serbian president, Tomislav Nikolic, has been making waves in the international community since winning the May 20th run-off election against incumbent Boris Tadic. Since Nikolic and his center-right Serbian Progressive party and its allies won 73 out of 250 seats in the National Assembly, Nikolic has been making some controvsial statements regarding some of Serbia’s neighbors. Nikolic won with 50.21 percent of the vote, while Tadic won 46.77 percent. The shocking statements from Nikolic began with an interview the president did before the second round of elections on May 6th with the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. In the interview, Nickolic stated that a “greater Serbia was his unrealized dream” and “Vukovar was a Serbian town in which Croats should not return.” The Croatian President, Ivo Josipovic and other officials have spoken out against Nikolic’s comments. Josipovic and other leaders from the Balkans did not attend Nikolic’s inauguration due to the comments, and the Croatian president cancelled a trip to Belgrade that was supposed to take place at the end of June. During the war following Croatia’s claim to independence from Yugoslavia, Vukovar experienced severe damage from the Yugoslav army that was led by Serbs. After Vukovar fell to the Yugoslav army, over 200 Croats were killed. Many Croatians still view Vukovar's story as a difficult topic. This was the only controversial statement from Nikolic. He recently told Montenegrin state television, “There was no genocide in Srebrenica.” The International Court of Justice and the UN war crimes tribunal have both ruled the massacre of over 7,000 Muslim men and boys in 1995 as genocide. The massacre is the worst atrocity to occur in Europe since World War II. The international community has condemned the remarks by Nikolic. A spokesperson for the European Commission, Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen, said that the comments were “attempts to rewrite history.” Hansen also said, “The atrocities in Srebrenica in July 1995 were a crime against all humankind, and we should never forget it, and we should never allow it to happen again.” On June 14th, the Associated Press reported that EU officials would discuss Nikolic’s recent comments with the new president. While meeting in Brussels, Nikolic attempted to show that Serbia was prepared for EU membership. He claimed, “There is not better future for Serbia than membership in the Union.”
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, European Union, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Serbia
42054. Drones in Our World, Part IV: Adapting a Warfighter
- Author:
- Whitney Grespin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Aerial surveillance and remote sensing are nothing new in the world of combat reconnaissance, but they are new tools in the arsenal of the humanitarian relief and development communities. And they are rapidly evolving. Complex, disaster, and rapidly evolving environments all require the capability to promptly collect, analyze, and disseminate critical information that UAVs can gather and exploit in ways and quantities that other resources cannot rival.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Drones, Humanitarian Intervention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42055. Combating Energy Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Matthias Chika Mordi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- With its high poverty levels and low degree of industrialization, Africa arguably faces the largest development gap of any region. Beyond the usual misery indices and welfare evaluation metrics, we have fundamental challenges that impede meaningful sustainable development. Energy is an incontrovertible challenge across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Data from the World Bank and International Energy Agency (IEA) on energy poverty does not make for good visuals. Two out of three of SSA households—585 million people—live without electricity. In stark contrast, 99 percent of North African households have electricity supply. Only 14 percent of rural SSA households are linked to the grid. This compares unfavorably with Latin America where 74 percent of rural households are connected to power. The figures mask a more disturbing fact about electricity supply in most SSA countries: a high frequency of blackouts and unstable power supply. The World Bank estimates that SSA households experienced 91 days of blackouts in 2007. Beyond low electrification, energy poverty extends into inefficient and perilous forms of domestic energy for cooking attributable to a lack of modern fuels and clean cookers. According to IEA reports, more than 80% of SSA households—653 million people—use biomass for cooking, with devastating consequences for people and the environment. In 2009, more than 1.45 million African lives were lost to household pollution caused by inefficient biomass cooking stoves. Fewer people died from malaria.
- Topic:
- Development, Energy Policy, Poverty, and Industrialization
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa
42056. Foreign Aid a Critical Component of Mideast Stability
- Author:
- Robert Brada
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- A few weeks ago I found myself on the outskirts of a remote village in the Jordanian desert. One of my travel companions received a call on his mobile phone. It was a member of Jordan’s security services, saying we should call if we needed anything as they would have people nearby at all times. It was then I began to realize that the small projects I had come to observe had a global impact. I am not a traditional international relief worker. I grew up in a small town in Kansas, became a corporate finance lawyer, worked on the management team of a movie studio, and ran a startup healthcare services company. Perhaps this corporate background contributed to my skeptical view of the value of the U.S. spending overseas during bad economic times. During my two-week trip to Jordan and Iraq, however, I witnessed first-hand how seemingly minor development programs can help support stability and international values. Although Jordan projects an image of tourist-friendly calm, its location between Israel, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia makes it a strategically important player in any Middle East peace process – or conflict. All its borders, except those with Israel, are porous, and the country has received over 750,000 Iraqi refugees since 2003. Recently, over 140,000 refugees crossed from Syria as that country’s conflict has escalated. In the small town of Mafraq in northern Jordan, I met a Syrian woman and her three daughters who had fled their home the morning after Syrian forces killed all of the males in the home next door, including children. She has had no contact with her husband and sons since she left. The Jordanian people and government have responded compassionately, absorbing refugees into their homes and neighborhoods. A consequence of this kindness, however, is that communities are finding themselves overburdened. Jordan’s severe water shortage leaves most areas with running water only two days a week. Doubling or tripling the size of households turns water rationing from inconvenience into impossibility. The same is true for sewage, waste management, and public infrastructure as antiquated systems are pushed past their capacity. Even the free market works against the Jordanian hosts, as the swelling refugee population drives up the price of housing, food, and other commodities, while pushing down wages.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, Political stability, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Jordan
42057. China's Communist Youth League 90 Years On
- Author:
- Paul Nash
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- fter 90 years, China’s Communist Youth League is still going strong. Much has happened in that time. The nation has experienced political revolution, foreign invasion and a bloody civil war. It has experimented on a large scale with its economy, and its social structure, with devastating results. Then it reintegrated into global capitalism with astonishing success. And all along the Youth League has grown bigger and better organized. It seems to thrive on change, and always manages to find a curiously subtle way of militating against the pernicious influences thought to be imperilling the nation’s young people. Today, however, its members face something of a moral dilemma: what to make of Apple’s iPad. The Xinhua news agency and People’s Daily, the two principal media outlets representing the views of the Communist Party, have run a series of editorials assailing the American company’s practices in China. They have uncovered the “Five Sins of Apple.” The top three would sound agreeably familiar to an American Christian if they were not joined to an ideology perceived to spurn religion: hypocrisy, indifference, and impurity. According to these articles, the “bright Apple Inc.” flouts the copyrights of Chinese authors even as the United States condemns China for not protecting foreign intellectual property; Apple is indifferent to the pollution its local manufacturers produce; and the company allows erotic content to be propagated on its devices in flagrant violation of China’s strict anti-pornography laws. The Youth League jury, it seems, is still out—but not because it is torn between the iPad’s desirability and the evidence against Apple. Its members have become wary of such media campaigns sponsored by the government, recognizing their potential, or their intent, to divert public attention from more pressing domestic problems. If they approve their moral thrust, they also feel obliged to consider their message in full context, which includes the motives of their origination. After all, the league encourages it members to “seek the truth from all the facts.”
- Topic:
- Communism, Youth Culture, Youth, and Morality
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
42058. Millennials and Social Media
- Author:
- Evan Kraus
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- We hear a lot of talk about millennials, those 50 million Americans aged 18 - 29 who have entered our society with a bang. Like most past generations in their younger days, this group is idealistic, leans liberal and is excited about the future. Where millennials differ most from the generations who came before them is in their prodigious use of social media. According to Pew, 75 percent of millennials participate in social networking, and more than 20 percent have uploaded video of themselves to the web. It is that expressive nature of the generation, and their willingness to share in so public a venue, that defines the group. This idealism, combined with the expressive instincts of millennials, can have a profound impact on public policy. Take the Kony 2012 movement as an example. In March 2012, Invisible Children released a short film about Joseph Kony and his Lord's Resistance Army that urged its mostly young viewers to get involved in its publicity campaign. Within a few months, the video attracted more than 100 million views on YouTube and Vimeo, generated tremendous traditional media coverage and inspired the U.S. Senate to pass a resolution and the African Union to deploy troops, an unprecedented response to a fairly obscure issue in a remote part of the world. Of course, Joseph Kony has been a menace in Central Africa for more than a quarter-century and was indicted for war crimes by the Hague in 2005. But it took a simple, inspiring video plugged into social media to get millennials inspired and active. This is the central challenge for activists and leaders who wish to persuade millennials to adopt a similar response on other issues. By their very nature, foreign policy issues are nuanced and almost impossibly complex. The public in general, and millennials in particular, do not, as a group, have the patience to sift through every wrinkle and dependency. The age of the white paper or long-form reporting feature is largely over, replaced by the simple infographic or video-based story. It takes real talent, creativity and even a little bravery (just browse through the withering criticism aimed at Invisible Children to see why) to isolate the basic elements of an issue and express them in an interesting and compelling visual format with enough emotion and energy to inspire a supportive response. But this is the talent we must increasingly cultivate and celebrate in public affairs circles if we want the millennial public to get involved.
- Topic:
- Youth Culture, Social Media, Youth, and Millennials
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42059. Generation "U".: The Plight oof 75 Million Unemployed Youth
- Author:
- Arun S. Nair
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Consider this—globally, 75 million youth between 15 and 24 years of age are unemployed, according to a May 2012 report of the International Labor Organization (ILO). If all these youth were residents of a single nation, that would make it the 18th most populous in the world. The 75 million youth (an increase of around 4 million since 2007) comprise about 40 percent of the estimated 207 million unemployed people across the world. Many of those who have managed to secure some employment are not any better off. As many as 228 million youth who have 'jobs' live on less than $2 a day, a reflection of their poverty and under-employment. The ILO forecasts a bleak future too. The international body on labor projects that the global youth unemployment rate—seen at 12.7 percent this year (or higher at 13.6 percent if one includes those who have given up or put off their job search due to the poor prospects)—will remain at such high levels in the near future, that is at least till 2016. Such is the seriousness of the problem that some experts have already started describing today's youth as Generation 'U' (for Unemployed) or Generation 'NEET' (an acronym for Not in Education, Employment or Training), a far cry from the more popularly used term—'Generation Z' or 'iGeneration' (symbolizing their skills in being technologically advanced and connected).
- Topic:
- Debt, Youth, Unemployment, and Job Creation
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42060. Corporate Liquidity and Financial Fragility: The Role of Investment, Debt and Interest
- Author:
- Jan Toporowski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- The paper addresses the issue of how debt deflation may arise in a capitalist economy with a sophisticated credit system. It argues that the standard argument of debt deflationists, that debt-financed investment causes a build-up of unsustainable investment, fails to recognise that debt is back by credit. A corollary of this is that the rate of interest is not a factor in investment decisions. Financial fragility is caused by heterogeneity of balance sheets, debt financed operations in financial markets and insufficient debt-financed investment, rather than too much such investment.
- Topic:
- Debt, Markets, Investment, and Credit
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42061. Lange and Keynes
- Author:
- Jan Toporowski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- Lange engaged with Keynes in the matter of Keynes‟s macroeconomics, and over econometrics. Lange‟s interpretation of the Keynesian macroeconomic model laid the foundation for the neo-classical synthesis. But it was limited in its monetary economics. Lange also intervened in the Keynes-Tinbergen dispute over the scope and significance of econometrics. Lange collaborated in a paper that conceded Keynes‟s main point that empirical investigation could not determine theory, but insisted that theories could nevertheless be tested empirically. The paper was never publish and Keynes, unconvinced, planned to recruit Kalecki to his critique of econometrics.
- Topic:
- Socialism/Marxism, Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, and Keynes
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42062. Neologism as Theoretical Innovation in Economics: The case of 'Financialisation
- Author:
- Jan Toporowski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- The term „financialisation‟ is a recognition that finance has come to play a key role on the modern capitalist economy. But users of the term do not agree on its meaning and recognition of the growing scale of finance has not brought about an increased understanding of financial processes. The paper examines the reasons for increased turnover in financial markets. The main themes in the literature on financialisation are examined and shown to lack a coherent account of financial processes that goes beyond the evidence of financial activity.
- Topic:
- Debt, Finance, Credit, and Financialisation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42063. The Monetary Theory of Kalecki and Minsky
- Author:
- Jan Toporowski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- The monetary theory of Kalecki and Minsky is usually placed within the Post-Keynesian tradition, deriving from the monetary analysis of John Maynard Keynes. The paper argues that Kalecki and Minsky shared a common inheritance in Swedish and German monetary theory, rather than the Marshallian tradition. Thus the monetary analysis of Kalecki and Minsky emphasises the endogeneity of money through capitalist reproduction, rather than through the mechanisms connecting central bank money to credit creation in the banking system. This provides the link between the monetary theory of Kalecki and Minsky and modern circuit theory.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Banks, Economic Theory, and Keynes
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42064. The Impact of Information Technology Outsourcing on Productivity and Output: New Evidence from India
- Author:
- Grace Kite
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- Neither the literature on outsourcing nor the literature on the impact of information technology (IT) have previously quantified the effects of IT outsourcing. This is a particularly important omission in India, which has an IT outsourcing industry that is well placed to bring world-class applications of the technology to domestic customers. This paper provides econometric evidence which shows that there is a strong positive impact of IT outsourcing on output and productivity in India. It also demonstrates that in aggregate, IT outsourcing makes a substantial contribution to Indian economic growth.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Job Creation, Information Technology, and Outsourcing
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
42065. Where Romanticism was Female
- Author:
- Gisela Imgrund
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Bilgi
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- Universal texts have the potential to provide findings for the reader from any perspective at any period of time. So does the written heritage of Early Romanticism. Nevertheless, to understand the spiritual awakening in the 18th century in Germany, an outline of a social and political environment as prerequisites is here given. Several “departures” led to the movement of the Early Romantics at the end of the century. In its center were women. Early Romanticism has always been a challenge for each existing social order, a social disruption, demanding the whole human being in all his and her possibilities. For in the history of reception of Romanticism, those of the late phase have been more easily comprehended. They are happy by nature, Catholic, and they can be categorized, while the Early Romantics usually are dismissed as “crazy” and “confused”.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Religion, Women, and Spiritualism
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
42066. Is the Twin Deficits Hypothesis Valid in the case of Turkey?
- Author:
- Fuat Sekmen and Unsal Ozan Kahraman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Bilgi
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- This study deals with the relationship between the current account deficit and the budget deficit in Turkey. Artificial Neural Networks are employed to investigate this relationship. According to the results of the application the twin deficits hypothesis which indicates a positive correlation between the two deficits isn’t valid in Turkey. As this paper tries to analyze the factors accounting for the absence of this kind of correlation, it develops a flexible understanding which doesn’t refuse a hypothesis or a theory (the twin deficits hypothesis) completely, on the contrary, emphasizes the importance of investigating the conditions in which a hypothesis, theory or a model is valid.
- Topic:
- Economics, Budget, Finance, and Deficit
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia
42067. BRICS, Energy and the New World Order
- Author:
- Stein Sundstol Eriksen, Sverre Lodgaard, Arne Melchior, Karl M. Rich, Elana Wilson Rowe, and Ole Jacob Sending
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- When a Goldman Sachs executive introduced the ‘BRIC’ (Brazil, Russia, India, China) acronym in 2001, it was an innovative move, since continued success could not be taken for granted for all of the countries: only China and India had sustained high growth in the 1990s. Time has shown that the bet was a safe one: the BRIC constellation has been a rising star. In 2010, the category expanded to BRICS with the inclusion of South Africa, thereby covering all the major developing continents. BRICS is still in the making as an institution, but it may be here to stay, with annual summits held since 2009 and a stronger role in global governance through the G-20. In the geopolitics of energy, the BRICS play several roles, with increasing weight and significance. As large nations with rapid growth, the BRICS are increasingly important as suppliers or consumers of energy (Chapter 1). As emerging economies, they are part of a broader process of reallocation in the world economy, with a ‘New World Order’ emerging and energy affected via GDP growth, new trade patterns and transport-related energy demand (Chapter 2). In this emerging new order, the BRICS are also challenging the old powers in the field of security, and Chapter 3 examines the related implications for energy. While the old world was – at least in the economic field – a ‘hub-and-spoke’ system with Western Europe and North America at the core, a new pattern is emerging with increasing interaction along the rim. As an illustration of these new patterns, Chapter 4 examines the role of China and India in Africa, with the focus on energy and governance. With respect to timing, the focus on the giants rather than the dwarfs may have been a product of its era: Until 1980, there was broad development among poor nations, but the last two decades of the 20th century were a story of two tracks: a minority of important developing nations forging ahead and succeeding, and a large number of failures, especially in Africa. Perhaps that was why G-77 was no longer so much fun, and the rise of the giants seemed a more appealing concept. BRICS are large middle-income countries on the way up. The group is perceived, and perceives itself, as a symbol of development and the emerging world, challenging the ‘old world’. Is this perception true? has there really been a ‘decline of the West’? and have the BRICS been leading this change?
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, and BRICS
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil
42068. Peace Agreement Drafter's Handbook
- Author:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Abstract:
- The Public International Law & Policy Group’s (PILPG) Peace Agreement Drafter’s Handbook is a comprehensive guide on how to draft a peace agreement based upon comparative analysis of more than 60 peace agreements over a period of more than 30 years. This Handbook is intended to assist drafters, mediators, negotiators, and anyone else interested in the substantive and practical contents contained in peace agreements. PILPG designed this Handbook to facilitate drafting peace agreements quickly, efficiently, and effectively. The Handbook does not proffer advice on how to negotiate or otherwise reach an agreement. Rather, the Handbook is designed to facilitate the ability of parties and other actors to translate political agreements into legally-binding treaty language. Emphasis is placed on crafting provisions in such a way as to enhance their full and effective implementation, as well as the durability of the agreement itself. The Handbook sets out the essential components and core elements found in most peace agreements because approximately 60–70 percent of all peace agreements draw on similar components and language. However, every conflict is unique and drafters may have to adjust certain elements to enhance an agreement’s relevancy and applicability to a particular conflict situation or post-conflict environment. Therefore, each chapter should be considered as ad hoc, and reshaping the new agreement to address the nuances of each party’s needs will be necessary. Similarly, the comparative provisions and sample language provided in the Handbook are by no means exclusive, recommended, or mandatory. The purpose of the Handbook is to assist a drafter prepare a well-crafted agreement and enhance the durability of future agreements by drawing upon the best practices from prior agreements. The Handbook consists of several chapters, all of which follow the same basic format. Each chapter focuses on a particular section commonly found in peace agreements, such as ceasefires, economic restructuring, and property restitution. Each chapter first identifies the basic elements in that section of a peace agreement. For instance, in ceasefires, the basic elements include the identification and definition of prohibited acts, separation of forces, and verification, supervision, and monitoring. The primary notes found in each chapter provide a brief overview of a specific element. These elements are then addressed through comparative analysis. The analysis provides for the drafter language found in other peace agreements from which the most relevant to the drafter’s conflict can be selected. Each section then concludes with sample language.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42069. Post-Conflict Constitution Drafter's Handbook
- Author:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Abstract:
- The Public International Law & Policy Group’s (PILPG) Post-Conflict Constitution Drafter’s Handbook is intended to assist drafters of constitutions in post-conflict situations. The Handbook draws from PILPG’s experience in facilitating post-conflict constitution drafting processes, as well as comparative state practice, and is based upon analysis of over 150 constitutions from post- conflict and stable states. The Handbook is divided into sixteen chapters, each of which covers a core section in post-conflict constitutions. The chapters include: the Preamble, State Structure and Devolution of Powers, the Executive, the Legislature, the Judiciary, International Legal Obligations, the Electoral System, Financial Matters and the Central Bank, Human Rights, Minority Rights, Women’s Rights, Defense and Security, the Role of Religion, Customary Law, Natural Resources, and Extraordinary Measures. Within each chapter, the Handbook describes core provisions and provides sample language that may be used as a basis for constitutional provisions. In some instances, the Handbook provides several options that the drafter may choose from. The sample language is identified as “Option One” and “Option Two.” In others, the Handbook provides optional language that drafters may include. In those instances the sample language is identified as “Optional.” The intent of this handbook is to provide the drafter with options in structuring constitutional provisions. Since every post-conflict situation is unique, the drafter may change certain elements to enhance the constitution’s relevance and applicability to a particular context. The purpose of the sample language is merely to provide options from ratified constitutions to assist the drafter. The Handbook also contains two annexes. Annex I provides a list all of the constitutions cited in the footnotes and a link to their location on the World Wide Web. Annex II provides a compilation of all the sample language. PILPG is committed to supporting constitution drafters in fulfilling their roles, and, upon request, can provide additional assistance in considering particular provisions and language.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Peacekeeping, Conflict, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42070. Land Governance at the Crossroads: A Review of Afghanistan’s Proposed New Land Management Law
- Author:
- Liz Alden Wily
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan’s longstanding Land Management Law, last revised in 2008, is again under review. More than 100 amendments had been formally proposed by mid-2012. So far the proposed changes are mainly editorial and do not reform problematic fundamentals of the law. Some important issues still requiring urgent attention are discussed and examined in this paper.
- Topic:
- Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Land
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
42071. Fixing Afghanistan’s Electoral System: Arguments and Options for Reform
- Author:
- Andrew Reynolds and John Carey
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
- Abstract:
- Following Afghanistan’s deeply flawed parliamentary election in 2010, calls for electoral reform among both national and international actors have been steadily gaining momentum. One major focus of criticism has been the country’s use of the single non-transferable vote (SNTV) system, which many argue must be scrapped or overhauled before the next set of legislative elections in 2015. A new paper for AREU by international election experts Andrew Reynolds and John Carey explores how and why SNTV has been so damaging over the course of the last two rounds of legislative polls in 2005 and 2010. It argues that by choking political parties or other alliances of the oxygen they need to flourish, SNTV has left Afghanistan with a weak legislature, unable to advance coherent national policy programmes to deal with the country’s significant challenges. In addition, it highlights a raft of other problems that SNTV has either caused or exacerbated, exploring in particular the ways in which it has left the electorate struggling to see how their votes translate into meaningful representation. It goes on to examine possible options for reform, including an analysis of a new draft Electoral Law proposed by Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission in June 2012.
- Topic:
- Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Parliamentarism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
42072. Missing Import Price Changes and Low Exchange Rate Pass-Through
- Author:
- Etienne Gagnon, Benjamin R. Mandel, and Robert J. Vigfusson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- A large body of empirical work has found that exchange rate movements have only modest effects on inflation. However, the response of an import price index to exchange rate movements may be underestimated because some import price changes are missed when constructing the index. We investigate downward biases that arise when items experiencing a price change are especially likely to exit or to enter the index. We show that, in theoretical pricing models, entry and exit have different implications for the timing and size of these biases. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) microdata, we derive empirical bounds on the magnitude of these biases and construct alternative price indexes that are less subject to selection effects. Our analysis suggests that the biases induced by selective exits and entries are modest over typical forecast horizons. As such, the empirical evidence continues to support the conclusion that exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices is low.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Exchange Rate Policy, Imports, and Price
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42073. Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Treasury Yields
- Author:
- Daniel O. Beltran, Maxwell Kretchmer, Jaime Marquez, and Charles Thomas
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Foreign official holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased from $400 billion in January 1994 to about $3 trillion in June 2010. Most of this growth is accounted for by a handful of emerging market economies that have been running large current account surpluses. These countries are channeling their savings through the official sector, which is then acquiring foreign exchange reserves. Any shift in policy to reduce their current account surpluses or dampen the rate of reserves accumulation would likely slow the pace of foreign official purchases of U.S. Treasuries. Would such a slowing of foreign official purchases of Treasury notes and bonds affect long-term Treasury yields? Most likely yes, and the effects appear to be large. By our estimates, if foreign official inflows into U.S. Treasuries were to decrease in a given month by $100 billion, 5-year Treasury rates would rise by about 40-60 basis points in the short run. But once we allow foreign private investors to react to the yield change induced by the shock to foreign official inflows, the long-run effect is about 20 basis points.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, Foreign Direct Investment, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42074. Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies: What Lessons From the Global Financial Crisis?
- Author:
- Brahima Coulibaly
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- During the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, emerging market economies (EMEs) loosened monetary policy considerably to cushion the shock. In previous crises episodes, by contrast, EMEs generally had to tighten monetary policy to defend the value of their currencies, to contain capital flight, and to bolster policy credibility. Our study aims to understand the factors that enabled this remarkable shift in monetary policy, and also to assess whether this marks a new era in which EMEs can now conduct countercyclical policy, more in line with advanced economies. The results indicate statistically significant linkages between some characteristics of the economies and their ability to conduct countercyclical monetary policy. We find that macroeconomic fundamentals and lower vulnerabilities, openness to trade, and international capital flows, financial reforms, and the adoption of inflation targeting all facilitated the conduct of countercyclical policy. Of these factors, the most important have been the financial reforms achieved over the past decades and the adoption of inflation targeting. As long as EMEs maintain these strong economic fundamentals, continue to reform their financial sector, and adopt credible and transparent monetary policy frameworks such as inflation targeting, the conduct of countercyclical monetary policy will likely be sustainable.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42075. The Effect of TARP on Bank Risk-Taking
- Author:
- Lamont Black and Lieu Hazelwood
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- One of the largest responses of the U.S. government to the recent financial crisis was the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). TARP was originally intended to stabilize the financial sector through the increased capitalization of banks. However, recipients of TARP funds were then encouraged to make additional loans despite increased borrower risk. In this paper, we consider the effect of the TARP capital injections on bank risk taking by analyzing the risk ratings of banks’ commercial loan originations during the crisis. The results indicate that, relative to non-TARP banks, the risk of loan originations increased at large TARP banks but decreased at small TARP banks. Interest spreads and loan levels also moved in different directions for large and small banks. For large banks, the increase in risk-taking without an increase in lending is suggestive of moral hazard due to government ownership. These results may also be due to the conflicting goals of the TARP program for bank capitalization and bank lending.
- Topic:
- Governance, Interest Rates, Risk, Welfare, Capital, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42076. U.S. International Equity Investment and Past Prospective Returns
- Author:
- John Armmer, Sara B. Holland, David C Smith, and Francis E. Warnock
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- U.S. investors are the largest group of international equity investors in the world, but to date conclusive evidence on which types of foreign firms are able to attract U.S. investment is not available. Using a comprehensive dataset of all U.S. investment in foreign equities, we find that the single most important determinant of the amount of U.S. investment a foreign firm receives is whether the firm cross-lists on a U.S. exchange. Correcting for selection biases, cross-listing leads to a doubling (or more) in U.S. investment, an impact greater than all other factors combined. We also show that our firm-level analysis has implications for country-level studies, suggesting that research investigating equity investment patterns at the country-level should include cross-listing as an endogenous control variable. We describe easy-to-implement methods for including the importance of cross-listing at the country level.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Exchange Rate Policy, Investment, and Equity
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42077. When Good Investments Go Bad: The Contraction in Community Bank Lending After the 2008 GSE Takeover
- Author:
- Tara Rice and Jonathan Rose
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- n September 2008, the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed into conservatorship and dividend payments on common and preferred shares were suspended. As a result, share prices fell to nearly zero and many banks across the country lost the value of their investments in the preferred shares. We estimate more than 600 depository institutions in the United States were exposed to at least $8 billion in investment losses from these securities. In addition, fifteen failures and two distressed mergers either directly or indirectly resulted from the takeover. Since these GSE investments were considered to be safe investments by banks, regulators, and rating agencies, we consider these losses to be exogenous shocks to bank capital, and use this event to examine the relationship between community bank condition and lending during this crisis. We find that in the quarter following the takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the measured Tier 1 capital ratio at exposed banks fell about three percent on average, and loan growth at exposed banks with median capitalization was about 2 percentage points lower compared to other banks in the following quarter. Consequently, considering the set of community banks that incurred about $2 billion in GSE-related losses, and assuming that each bank reduced loan growth by 2 percentage points, the estimated aggregate lending drop among these banks would be roughly $4 billion.
- Topic:
- Investment, Lending, Banking, and Banking Crisis
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42078. Fiscal Consolidation in an Open Economy
- Author:
- Christopher J. Erceg and Jesper Linde
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper uses a New Keynesian DSGE model of a small open economy to compare how the e¤ects of fiscal consolidation di¤er depending on whether monetary policy is constrained by currency union membership or by the zero lower bound on policy rates. We show that there are important di¤erences in the impact of fiscal shocks across these monetary regimes that depend both on the duration of the zero lower bound and on features that determine the responsiveness of inflation.
- Topic:
- Economics, Economic Theory, Fiscal Policy, and Consolidation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42079. The Timing of Sovereign Defaults Over Electoral Terms
- Author:
- Nathan Foley-Fisher
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- I construct a database that maps the timing of sovereign default decisions into elected politicians' terms of office, that provides an empirical means of investigating political economy theories of sovereign default. I find no robust patterns in the timing of default decisions over terms of office. I also find no evidence in support of the political reputation theory of sovereign debt repayment. Finally, there is some tentative evidence that elected leaders who default are also those more likely to be re-elected. Motivated by anecdotal evidence, I use a stylised model of political leaders with career concerns to demonstrate how this can occur when politicians care about re-election.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Elections, Leadership, Economic Theory, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42080. How Do Laffer Curves Differ Across Countries?
- Author:
- Mathias Trabandt and Harald Uhlig
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We seek to understand how Laffer curves differ across countries in the US and the EU-14, thereby providing insights into fiscal limits for government spending and the service of sovereign debt. As an application, we analyze the consequences for the permanent sustainability of current debt levels, when interest rates are permanently increased e.g. due to default fears. We build on the analysis in Trabandt and Uhlig (2011) and extend it in several ways. To obtain a better fit to the data, we allow for monopolistic competition as well as partial taxation of pure profit income. We update the sample to 2010, thereby including recent increases in government spending and their fiscal consequences. We provide new tax rate data. We conduct an analysis for the pessimistic case that the recent fiscal shifts are permanent. We include a cross-country analysis on consumption taxes as well as a more detailed investigation of the inclusion of human capital considerations for labor taxation.
- Topic:
- Economics, Economic Theory, Human Capital, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42081. Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries
- Author:
- Samir Jahjah, Bin Wei, and Vivian Zhanwei Yue
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper empirically analyzes how exchange rate policy affects the issuance and pricing of international bonds for developing countries. We find that countries with less flexible exchange rate regimes pay higher sovereign bond spreads and are less likely to issue bonds. Quantitatively, changing a free-floating regime to a fixed regime decreases the likelihood of bond issuance by 4.6% and increases the bond spread by 1.3% on average. Furthermore, countries with real exchange rate overvaluation have higher bond spreads and higher bond issuance probabilities. Moreover, such positive effects of real exchange rate overvaluation tend to be magnified for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. Our results suggest that choosing a less flexible exchange rate regime in general leads to higher borrowing costs for developing countries, especially when their currencies are overvalued.
- Topic:
- Development, Exchange Rate Policy, Fiscal Policy, and Bonds
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42082. Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries
- Author:
- Lutz Kilian and Robert J. Vigfusson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- There is a long tradition of using oil prices to forecast U.S. real GDP. It has been suggested that the predictive relationship between the price of oil and one-quarter ahead U.S. real GDP is nonlinear in that (1) oil price increases matter only to the extent that they exceed the maximum oil price in recent years and that (2) oil price decreases do not matter at all. We examine, first, whether the evidence of in-sample predictability in support of this view extends to out-of-sample forecasts. Second, we discuss how to extend this forecasting approach to higher horizons. Third, we compare the resulting class of nonlinear models to alternative economically plausible nonlinear specifications and examine which aspect of the model is most useful for forecasting. We show that the asymmetry embodied in commonly used nonlinear transformations of the price of oil is not helpful for out-of-sample forecasting; more robust and more accurate real GDP forecasts are obtained from symmetric nonlinear models based on the three-year net oil price change. Finally, we quantify the extent to which the 2008 recession could have been forecast using the latter class of time-varying threshold models.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, GDP, and Price
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42083. U.S. Real Interest Rates and Default Risk in Emerging Economies
- Author:
- Nathan Foley-Fisher and Bernardo Guimaraes
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper empirically investigates the impact of changes in U.S. real interest rates on sovereign default risk in emerging economies using the method of identification through heteroskedasticity. Policy-induced increases in U.S. interest rates starkly raise default risk in emerging market economies. However, the overall correlation between U.S. real interest rates and the risk of default is negative, demonstrating that the effects of other variables dominate the anterior relationship.
- Topic:
- Economics, Interest Rates, Risk, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42084. Individual Price Adjustment Along the Extensive Margin
- Author:
- Etienne Gagnon, David López-Salido, and Nicholas Vincent
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Firms employ a rich variety of pricing strategies whose implications for aggregate price dynamics often diverge. This situation poses a challenge for macroeconomists interested in bridging micro and macro price stickiness. In responding to this challenge, we note that differences in macro price stickiness across pricing mechanisms can often be traced back to price changes that are either triggered or cancelled by shocks. We exploit observed micro price behavior to quantify the importance of this margin of adjustment for the response of inflation to shocks. Across a range of empirical exercises, we find strong evidence that changes in the timing of price adjustments contribute significantly to the flexibility of the aggregate price level.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Price
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42085. Individual Price Adjustment Along the Extensive Margin
- Author:
- Etienne Gagnon, David López-Salido, and Nicholas Vincent
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Firms employ a rich variety of pricing strategies whose implications for aggregate price dynamics often diverge. This situation poses a challenge for macroeconomists interested in bridging micro and macro price stickiness. In responding to this challenge, we note that differences in macro price stickiness across pricing mechanisms can often be traced back to price changes that are either triggered or cancelled by shocks. We exploit observed micro price behavior to quantify the importance of this margin of adjustment for the response of inflation to shocks. Across a range of empirical exercises, we find strong evidence that changes in the timing of price adjustments contribute significantly to the flexibility of the aggregate price level.
- Topic:
- Economics, Business, Inflation, Macroeconomics, and Price
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42086. Heterogeneous Workers, Optimal Job Seeking, and Aggregate Labor Market Dynamics
- Author:
- Brandan Epstein
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In the United States, the aggregate vacancy-unemployment (V/U) ratio is strongly procyclical, and a large fraction of its adjustment associated with changes in productivity is sluggish. The latter is entirely unexplained by the benchmark homogeneous-agent model of equilibrium unemployment theory. I show that endogenous search and worker-side horizontal heterogeneity in production capacity can be important in accounting for this propagation puzzle. Driven by differences in unemployed and on-the-job seekers' search incentives, the probability that any given firm with a job opening matches with a worker endowed with a comparative advantage in that job exhibits a stage of procyclical slow-moving adjustment. Consequently, so do the expected gains from posting vacancies and, hence, the V/U ratio. The model has channels through which the majority of both the V/U ratio's sluggish-adjustment properties and its elasticity with respect to output per worker can be accounted for.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Employment, Business, Unemployment, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42087. Commodity Price Movements in a General Equilibrium Model of Storage
- Author:
- David M. Arseneau and Sylvain Leduc
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We embed the canonical rational expectations competitive storage model into a general equilibrium framework thereby allowing the non-linear commodity price dynamics implied by the competitive storage model to interact with the broader macroeconomy. Our main result is that the endogenous movement in interest rates implied under general equilibrium enhances the effects of competitive storage on commodity prices. Compared to a model in which the real interest rate is fixed, we find that storage in general equilibrium leads to more persistence in commodity prices and somewhat lower volatility. Moreover, the frequency of stockouts is lower in general equilibrium. A key mechanism driving this result is a link between the ability of the household to smooth consumption over time and the level of storage in the stochasic equilibrium. Finally, the model is used to examine the macroeconomic effects of both biofuel subsidies for ethanol producers and, separately, subsidies designed to insulate households from high food prices.
- Topic:
- Economics, Food, Commodities, Economic Theory, and Price
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42088. International Relative Price Levels: A Look Under the Hood
- Author:
- Jaime Marquez, Charles Thomas, and Corinne Land
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the structure of international relative price levels using purchasing power parities (PPP) at the product-level from the 2005 World Bank’s International Comparison Program (ICP). Our examination is motivated by questions arising from two applications using economy-wide PPPs: the measurement of real effective exchange rates (REERs) and the correlation between prices and development. Specifically, how would our view on competitiveness be affected if one were to use PPP measures that exclude non-tradable categories? Is it the case that an increase in per-capita income raises the prices of non-tradable categories? These questions are not new. What is new here is the use of relative price levels (as opposed to indexes) at the product level for 144 countries that differ greatly in their level of development.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Exchange Rate Policy, Strategic Competition, and Price
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42089. Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting
- Author:
- Neil R. Ericsson and Erica L. Reisman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Global vector autoregressions (GVARs) have several attractive features: multiple potential channels for the international transmission of macroeconomic and financial shocks, a standardized economically appealing choice of variables for each country or region examined, systematic treatment of long-run properties through cointegration analysis, and flexible dynamic specification through vector error correction modeling. Pesaran, Schuermann, and Smith (2009) generate and evaluate forecasts from a paradigm GVAR with 26 countries, based on Dées, di Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007). The current paper empirically assesses the GVAR in Dées, di Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007) with impulse indicator saturation (IIS)—a new generic procedure for evaluating parameter constancy, which is a central element in model-based forecasting. The empirical results indicate substantial room for an improved, more robust specification of that GVAR. Some tests are suggestive of how to achieve such improvements.
- Topic:
- Economics, Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42090. The Return on U.S. Direct Investment at Home and Abroad
- Author:
- Stephanie E. Curcuru and Charles Thomas
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- A longstanding puzzle is that the United States is a net borrower from the rest of the world, yet continues to receive income on its external position. A large difference between the yields on direct investment at home and abroad is responsible and this paper examines potential explanations for this differential. We find that most of the differential disappears after one adjusts for the U.S. taxes owed by the parent on foreign earnings, the sovereign risk and sunk costs associated with investing abroad, and the age of foreign direct investment in the U.S.. Taken together, our results suggest most of the difference in yields should remain as long as there is a difference in tax rates between the United States and the countries in which U.S. firms invest, and U.S. investments are perceived as relatively safe. This has implications for the long-run sustainability of the U.S. current account deficit which will depend, in part, on the long-run behavior of this income.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, Foreign Direct Investment, Tax Systems, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42091. Liquidity Shocks, Dollar Funding Costs, and the Bank Lending Channel During the European Sovereign Crisis
- Author:
- Ricardo Correa, Horacio Sapriza, and Andrei Zlate
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper documents a new type of cross-border bank lending channel. The deepening of the European sovereign debt crisis in 2011 restrained the financial intermediation of European banks in the United States. In this period, some of the U.S. branches of European banks faced a dollar liquidity shock—due to their perceived risk reflecting the sovereign risk of their countries of origin—which in turn affected the branches’ lending to U.S. entities. We use a novel dataset to analyze the operations of branches of foreign banks in the United States. Our results show that: (1) The U.S. branches of European banks experienced a run on their deposits, mainly from U.S. money market funds. (2) The branches with curtailed access to large time deposits relied more on funding from their own parent institutions, thus shifting from being net suppliers to being net receivers of dollar funding from their related offices. (3) Since the additional funding received from parent institutions was not enough to offset the decreased access to U.S. funding, such branches reduced their lending to U.S. entities.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, European Union, Finance, Banking, and Liquidity
- Political Geography:
- Europe
42092. Gauging The Effects of Fiscal Stimulus Packages In The Euro Area
- Author:
- Gunter Coenen, Ronald Straub, and Mathias Trabandt
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We seek to quantify the impact on euro area GDP of the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP) enacted in response to the financial crisis of 2008-09. To do so, we estimate an extended version of the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a richly specified fiscal sector. The estimation results point to the existence of important complementarities between private and government consumption and, to a lesser extent, between private and public capital. We first examine the implied present-value multipliers for seven distinct fiscal instruments and show that the estimated complementarities result in fiscal multipliers larger than one for government consumption and investment. We highlight the importance of monetary accommodation for these findings. We then show that the EERP, if implemented as initially enacted, had a sizeable, although short-lived impact on euro area GDP. Since the EERP comprised both revenue and expenditure-based fiscal stimulus measures, the total multiplier is below unity.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Governance, European Union, Stimulus, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Europe
42093. A State-Dependent Model for Inflation Forecasting
- Author:
- Andrea Stella and James H. Stock
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We develop a parsimonious bivariate model of inflation and unemployment that allows for persistent variation in trend inflation and in the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. The model, which consists of five unobserved components including the trends) with stochastic volatility, implies a time-varying vector autoregression model for changes in the rates of inflation and unemployment. The implied backwards-looking Phillips curve has a time-varying slope that is steeper in the 1970s than in the 1990s. Pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiments indicate improvements upon univariate benchmarks. Since 2008, the implied Phillips curve has become steeper and the the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment has increased.
- Topic:
- Development, Labor Issues, Inflation, State Building, and Unemployment
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42094. Fiscal Consolidation in a Currency Union: Spending Cuts vs. Tax Hikes
- Author:
- Christopher J. Erceg and Jesper Linde
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper uses a two country DSGE model to examine the effects of tax-based versus expenditure-based fiscal consolidation in a currency union. We find three key results. First, given limited scope for monetary accommodation, tax-based consolidation tends to have smaller adverse effects on output than expenditure-based consolidation in the near-term, though is more costly in the longer-run. Second, a large expenditure-based consolidation may be counterproductive in the near-term if the zero lower bound is binding, reflecting that output losses rise at the margin. Third, a "mixed strategy" that combines a sharp but temporary rise in taxes with gradual spending cuts may be desirable in minimizing the output costs of fiscal consolidation.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Tax Systems, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Public Spending, and Liquidity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42095. Foreign Banks in the U.S.: A Primer
- Author:
- William Goulding and Daniel E. Nolle
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper describes the foreign banking landscape in the United States. It begins by establishing a vocabulary for discussion of the subject, and then identifies a number of important data-related issues. With that information in hand, the remainder of the paper focuses on identifying the most important underlying trends on both sides of the balance sheets of foreign-owned banks' U.S. operations. At each step, the investigation considers how foreign-owned banks compare to U.S.-owned domestic banks, and how two types of foreign banks operations in the U.S. -- branches and agencies of foreign banks (FBAs), and foreign-owned subsidiary banks (FSUBs) -- compare to each other. The banking sector in the U.S. experienced substantial swings in performance and stability over the decade surrounding the 2008-2009 financial crisis and changes in every major dimension of foreign-owned banks' assets and liabilities were even larger than for domestic banks. Changes were especially large at FBAs. For example, cash balances came to dominate the assets side of FBAs’ aggregate balance sheet, with the absolute level of cash balances larger than those of domestic U.S. banks beginning in 2011, despite the fact that total assets of domestic U.S. banks are five times the assets of FBAs. Further, the recent unprecedented build-up of cash balances by FBAs was almost entirely composed of excess reserves. Changes in FBAs' liabilities-side activities have also been large, with much funding coming from large wholesale deposits and net borrowing from their foreign parents and related offices abroad.
- Topic:
- Foreign Direct Investment, Fiscal Policy, Capital, Banking, and Funding
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42096. Interest Rates and the Volatility and Correlation of Commodity Prices
- Author:
- Joseph W. Gruber and Robert J. Vigfusson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We propose a novel explanation for the observed increase in the correlation of commodity prices over the past decade. In contrast to theories that rely on the increased influence of financial speculators, we show that price correlation can increase as a result of a decline in interest rates. More generally, we examine the effect of interest rates on the volatility and correlation of commodity prices, theoretically through the framework of Deaton and Laroque (1992) and empirically via a panel GARCH model. In theory, we show that lower interest rates decrease the volatility of prices, as lower inventory costs promote the smoothing of transient shocks, and can increase price correlation if common shocks are more persistent than idiosyncratic shocks. Empirically, as predicted by theory, we find that price volatility attributable to transitory shocks declines with interest rates, while, particularly for metals prices, price correlation increases as interest rates decline.
- Topic:
- Economics, Commodities, Interest Rates, and Price
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42097. Do Recessions Affect Potential Output?
- Author:
- Jane T. Haltmaier
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- A number of previous studies have looked at the effect of financial crises on actual output several years beyond the crisis. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the growth of potential output also is affected by recessions, whether or not they include financial crises. Trend per capita output growth is calculated using HP filters, and average growth is compared for the two years preceding a recession, the two years immediately following a recession peak, and the two years after that. Panel regressions are run to determine whether characteristics of recessions, including depth, length, extent to which they are synchronized across countries, and whether or not they include a financial crisis, can explain the cumulative four-year loss in the level of potential output following an output peak preceding a recession. The main result is that the depth of a recession has a significant effect on the loss of potential for advanced countries, while the length is important for emerging markets. These results imply that the Great Recession might have resulted in declines in trend output growth averaging about 3 percent for the advanced economies, but appear to have had little effect on emerging market trend growth.
- Topic:
- Economics, Global Recession, Global Markets, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42098. Banks, Sovereign Debt and the International Transmission of Business Cycles
- Author:
- Luca Guerrieri, Matteo Iacoviello, and Raoul Minetti
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper studies the international propagation of sovereign debt default. We posit a two-country economy where capital constrained banks grant loans to firms and invest in bonds issued by the domestic and the foreign government. The model economy is calibrated to data from Europe, with the two countries representing the Periphery (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) and the Core, respectively. Large contractionary shocks in the Periphery trigger sovereign default. We find sizable spillover effects of default from Periphery to the Core through a drop in the volume of credit extended by the banking sector.
- Topic:
- Debt, Sovereignty, Business, Banks, and Capital
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42099. Variance Risk Premiums and the Forward Premium Puzzle
- Author:
- Juan M. Londono and Hao Zhou
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper presents evidence that the foreign exchange appreciation is predictable by the currency variance risk premium at a medium 6-month horizon and by the stock variance risk premium at a short 1-month horizon. Although currency variance risk premiums are highly correlated with each other over longer horizons, their correlations with stock variance risk premiums are quite low. Interestingly the currency variance risk premium has no predictive power for stock returns. We rationalize these findings in a consumption-based asset pricing model with orthogonal local and global economic uncertainties. In our model the market is incomplete in the sense that the global uncertainty is not priced by local stock markets and is therefore a forex-specific phenomenon—the currency uncertainty’s effects on the expected stock return are off-setting between the cash flow channel and the volatility channel.
- Topic:
- Economics, Risk, Currency, and Stock Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42100. Sovereign Credit Risk, Banks' Government Support, and Bank Stock Returns Around the World
- Author:
- Ricardo Correa, Kuan-Hui Lee, Horacio Sapriza, and Gustavo Suarez
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We explore the joint effect of expected government support to banks and changes in sovereign credit ratings on bank stock returns using data for banks in 37 countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that sovereign credit rating downgrades have a large negative effect on bank stock returns for those banks that are expected to receive stronger support from their governments. This result is stronger for banks in advanced economies where governments are better-positioned to provide that support. Our results suggest that stock market investors perceive sovereigns and domestic banks as markedly interconnected, partly through government guarantees.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Governance, Risk, Credit, Bonds, and Stock Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus