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39661. China’s Evolving Reconnaissance-Strike Capabilities: Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is investing considerable resources into a military architecture that has the potential to alter the strategic fabric of the Western Pacific region. This includes the development of multiple redundant sensor capabilities for monitoring a vast maritime domain extending off of China’s coastline and deep into the Pacific. China’s expanding reconnaissance infrastructure is designed to support an array of precision strike capabilities for targeting ships at sea, command and control nodes, air bases, ports, and other critical facilities. The purpose of these reconnaissance-strike capabilities is to undermine the Unites States military’s ability to project power into the region during periods of crisis or conflict to meet its security commitments to its allies and coalition partners.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Weapons, Conflict, and Reconnaissance
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

39662. The Alliance: Toward a Stronger U.S.-Japan Partnership

Author:
Project 2049 Institute
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
For the first time in the history of our nation, the Asia-Pacific is more important for the United States than any other region of the world. That is today. Tomorrow it will be even more vital. Indeed, the Asia-Pacific is the new epicenter of global affairs, and it is here that profound strategic changes are unfolding that will transform the international system. As one of the region’s most prosperous, powerful and pivotally located countries, Japan will play a key role in steering the trajectory of future developments in the region. This report is the capstone paper for the U.S.-Japan Exchange Program (2012 – 2014).
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Alliance, and International System
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

39663. Able Archers: Taiwan Defense Strategy in an Age of Precision Strike

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
This study describes efforts currently underway in the People’s Liberation Army for conducting precision strike operations against Taiwan, and explores Chinese military-technical writings to better understand related plans and capabilities. It assesses Taiwan’s military modernization program, in particular, its efforts to deny the PLA air superiority. This paper concludes with a brief discussion on Taiwan’s future defense strategy and offers recommendations for policymakers.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Military Affairs, Weapons, Army, and Modernization
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

39664. Standing Watch: Taiwan and Maritime Domain Awareness in the Western Pacific

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
This paper provides a preliminary assessment of Taiwan’s naval intelligence capabilities and evaluates its role in a future U.S.-led architecture for joint Western Pacific maritime domain awareness. The study examines Taiwan’s capabilities for monitoring its surrounding waters and the potential role of Taiwan in assisting the United States improve its situational awareness during maritime operations. The paper concludes that it is in the American interest to integrate Taiwan’s capabilities into a joint infrastructure for shared indications and warning (I&W) and regional situational awareness.
Topic:
Intelligence, Infrastructure, Military Affairs, and Navy
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

39665. Perpetuation of instability in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (English)

Author:
Joyce Muraya and John Ahere
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
In the late 1990s, Zimbabwe became trapped in a ditch of multifaceted crises that were pronounced in the contest for political power between the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). This conflict revolved around the legitimacy of electoral processes, related institutions and the credibility of electoral outcomes. By 2007, the conflict had escalated to the extent that the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and countries neighbouring Zimbabwe decided to mediate between the two parties to end the standoff, which had begun to negatively affect the entire southern Africa region. Thabo Mbeki, former President of South Africa (1999-2008), was then mandated by SADC to facilitate dialogue between the parties. Mediation efforts led to relatively credible harmonised parliamentary and presidential elections held on 29 March 2008. These elections, however, did not come up with a clear winner, forcing the country to call for a run-off. This second round of elections, held on 27 June 2008, was tainted by allegations of electoral flaws and widespread institutionalised violence. The result was a predictable regression into the pre-29 March era, prompting SADC to mandate South Africa to facilitate negotiations for a political solution among the key political players. In the face of varying interests converging on the Zimbabwe situation, South Africa’s role became even more difficult. This paper analyses South Africa’s facilitation approach to the inter-party negotiation process in Zimbabwe – from Mbeki’s “quiet diplomacy” to current President Jacob Zuma’s assertive stance – amid competing domestic and international interests. The analysis is based on critiques of realities confronting South Africa throughout the process. The paper presents South Africa’s facilitation approach as a consequence of four streams: historical experiences, South Africa’s post-apartheid foreign policy, African conflict resolution approaches, and a diagnosis of the dynamics of the Zimbabwean conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

39666. Security regionalism and flaws of externally forged peace in Sudan: The IGAD peace process and its aftermath

Author:
Aleksi Ylönen
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
During 1983-2005 Sudan hosted one of Africa’s longest insurgencies. Throughout the conflict a number of competing peace initiatives coincided, but a process under the mediation authority of the Inter-Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD) prevailed. However, although initiated in 1993, the IGAD process only accelerated after the September 2001 attacks on the United States (US) and was consequently finalised through the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in less than four years’ time. Although it was presented as IGAD’s success as a conflict resolution body, in reality the organisation’s role in the making of peace in Sudan was to a large extent conditioned by the involvement of a narrow selection of Western stakeholders. This article examines the IGAD peace process in Sudan, highlighting the dynamics and relative roles of the principal actors involved. It argues that although the negotiations were portrayed as inherently sub-regional, and adhering to the idea of ‘African solutions for African problems’, a closer analysis reveals that the peace process was dominated by external protagonists. This resulted in the interests of Western actors, particularly the US, playing a prominent role in the negotiated agreement, consequences of which are currently experienced both in Sudan and South Sudan.
Topic:
Security, Insurgency, Peace, Regionalism, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

39667. Formal and informal land tenure systems in Afar region, Ethiopia: Perceptions, attitudes and implications for land use disputes

Author:
Kelemework Tafere Reda
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Land is a contentious resource in the pastoral areas of Ethiopia. Traditional pastoralism, which is both a mode of production and a cultural way of life, dictates communal ownership of grazing land on which individually owned livestock graze. Pastoral land in Afar has traditionally been administered by the local communities themselves. However, with a gradual incorporation of the pastoralists into the Ethiopian modern polity, there have been competitive interests over issues of land administration between local communities and the state which often led to conflict and instability. Government land administration policies often contravene the age-old pastoral customary institutions; and stakeholder relations have taken a bitter course following the expansion of commercial agriculture, land investments and development projects. Using data obtained through Qualitative Interviews and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) this paper analyses land administration trajectories and dynamics in Afar region. It assesses how contradictions between statutory and customary tenure systems shape relations between multiple resource users including the state, investors, local communities, and neighbouring cultural groups. It also examines the impact of multi-stakeholder land disputes on land resource management, thereby identifying appropriate policy options for effective land administration practices in the pastoral areas.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Land Law, Pastoralism, Land Rights, and Tradition
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

39668. The Nigerian State as an equilibrium of violence: An explanation of the Boko Haram insurgency in Northern Nigeria

Author:
Emmanuel Ikechi Onah
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This paper argues that the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria is a religious crisis that is flowing directly from the country’s political system. It is the political system in Nigeria that has brought about the present realities of corruption, poverty, and underdevelopment throughout the country. Religion has only served, especially in northern Nigeria, to ignite these realities into a violent flame. Boko Haram is the latest in the long list of religiously inspired violence that has flared up in Nigeria on account of deficiencies in the political system. For as long as these systemic deficiencies exist, religious disturbances such as the Boko Haram violence will continue to be there. Such violence has served fundamentalist entrepreneurs or groups and other such champions to call attention to the plight of their people. However, such violence most often only provokes the government into counter-violence. The cycle of violence and counter-violence then enables the government to keep the people in check, even without addressing their demands, and, to dominate and exploit society without hindrance. What the state must do to sustainably tackle this systemic violence is to use a combination of poverty reduction strategies, anti-corruption drives, development efforts, law enforcement and military engagement (where necessary), and dialogue to try and bring about lasting peace, particularly in northern Nigeria, but also throughout the whole country.
Topic:
Religion, Insurgency, Conflict, Violence, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

39669. Pastoral conflict in Kenya: Transforming mimetic violence to mimetic blessings between Turkana and Pokot communities

Author:
Ryan Triche
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Livestock raiding has been a source of conflict amongst and between pastoral societies in Africa for hundreds of years. However, more recently, these raids have become more violent and have triggered much more organised retaliations. Many times raids themselves are perceived as motivated by ethnic dimensions. The following paper looks at tensions and conflict between Turkana and Pokot communities in rural Kenya. The paper first traces the historical context of cattle rustling and livestock raiding between pastoral communities within Kenya. It then identifies contemporary factors driving exacerbated tensions: access to resources, profiteering, and weapons proliferation. The paper further explores the systemic nature of the conflict through analysing livestock raiding as a conflict spiral dictated by negative reciprocal actions. The spiral is ultimately maintained due to mimetic violence structures that are in place. It then offers prescriptions and potential solutions to the conflict, which are centred on transcending the relationship from mimetic violence to mimetic peace and reconciliation. Ultimately, by empowering local pastoral communities in the form of multi-ethnic coalitions, and promoting broad-based interest groups, cultural transcendence can reverse the conflict spiral into a relationship of mutual reciprocity and mimetic peace.
Topic:
Conflict, Violence, Pastoralism, Peace, and Land
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

39670. Terrorism and governance crisis: The Boko Haram experience in Nigeria

Author:
Efehi Raymond Okoro
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Terrorist acts by Boko Haram have attracted enormous scholarly attention in recent years. A majority of the studies have implicated Islam in the emergence and dynamics of the uprising. In contrast to this popular view, this article argues that, despite the strategic role played by Islamic religion in the uprising, terrorism and its security threats in northern Nigeria are more a product of a governance crisis including pervasive corruption, growing youth unemployment and poverty. It further argues that if good governance concurrently with development is not employed as a remedial strategy, the Nigerian State will further create a much more enabling environment for the growth of resistance from below. Thus, it concludes that good governance and credible leadership practices are antidotes to terrorism in Nigeria.
Topic:
Religion, Terrorism, Governance, Al Qaeda, Youth, Al Shabaab, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria