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39631. The Heterogeneity of FDI in Sub-Saharan Africa: How Do the Horizontal Productivity Effects of Emerging Investors Differ from Those of Traditional Players?

Author:
Birte Pfeiffer, Holger Görg, and Lucia Perez-Villar
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
It is generally accepted by policymakers that outward foreign direct investment (FDI) can contribute to economic development in host countries via knowledge spillovers to the domestic economy. Given that multinational corporations (MNCs) possess technological or managerial advantages, they can generate positive externalities through the diffusion of knowledge to domestic firms. This knowledge transfer can occur horizontally, if firms in the same sector benefit from the presence of multinationals, or vertically, if upstream or downstream domestic sectors gain from the presence of foreign investors. Yet, whereas the FDI literature has reached a certain level of agreement that vertical relationships with local suppliers generate positive productivity spillovers, the evidence on horizontal spillovers is still mixed and inconclusive, and estimates differ in terms of statistical significance and magnitude (Havranek and Irsova 2013).1 These inconsistencies derive largely from differences in the measurement of foreign presence and the type of data used – cross‐sectional versus panel – across studies (Görg and Strobl 2001). Further, there are determining factors at the firm and country level that enhance the realization of spillovers and need to be taken into account. Görg and Greenaway (2004) show that studies accounting for the heterogeneity of domestic firms, and especially their absorptive capacity, tend to report positive results.
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

39632. International Sanctions against Iran under President Ahmadinejad: Explaining Regime Persistence

Author:
Oliver Borszik
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper seeks to explain how Iran's regime persisted in the face of international sanctions during Mahmud Ahmadinejad's presidency, from 2005 to 2013. It reconstructs the interplay between the intensifying UNSC, US and EU sanctions and the targeted regime's strategies to advance the nuclear program and maintain intra-elite cohesion. Initially, the nuclear program was expanded due to high oil income in combination with explicit resistance to the presumed regime‐change ambitions of the Western sanction senders. At the end of Ahmadinejad's presidency, the decline of foreign exchange earnings from oil exports and the continued regime-change scenario contributed to the neglect of this regimelegitimizing strategy in favor of the maintenance of intra-elite cohesion. My main argument is that once the US and EU oil and financial sanctions curtailed the cost‐intensive further development of the nuclear program, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei used these sanctions as an external stimulus to contain burgeoning factional disputes.
Topic:
Regime Change
Political Geography:
Iran

39633. The Institutional Presidency from a Comparative Perspective: Argentina and Brazil since the 1980s

Author:
Mariana Llanos and Magna Inácio
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper focuses on the evolution of the institutional presidency – meaning the cluster of agencies that directly support the chief of the executive – in Argentina and Brazil since their redemocratization in the 1980s. It investigates what explains the changes that have come about regarding the size of the institutional presidency and the types of agency that form it. Following the specialized literature, we argue that the growth of the institutional presidency is connected to developments occurring in the larger political system – that is, to the political challenges that the various presidents of the two countries have faced. Presidents adjust the format and mandate of the different agencies under their authority so as to better manage their relations with the political environment. In particular, we argue that the type of government (coalition or single-party) has had consequences for the structure of the presidency or, in other words, that different cabinet structures pose different challenges to presidents. This factor has not played a significant role in presidency-related studies until now, which have hitherto mostly been based on the case of the United States. Our empirical references, the presidencies of Argentina and Brazil, and typical cases of coalitional as well as single-party presidentialism respectively all allow us to show the impact of the type of government on the number and type of presidential agencies.
Political Geography:
United States, Brazil, and Argentina

39634. A Ticking "Time Bomb"? ‒ Youth Employment Problems in China

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
<p>Chinas leadership currently seems to be extremely worried about unemployment, and particularly youth unemployment, even though the countrys official unemployment rate is rather low. Possible reasons for this are that (1) the youth unemployment rate is actually higher than stated; (2) the inadequate employment situation faced by many young people is actually worse than the incomplete measurements of unemployment indicate; (3) particularly graduates of tertiary education institutions face a job reality below their expectations; (4) the Chinese population is highly concerned about the labor markets development; and, (5) the state fears that frustration and discontent might trigger protests, as was recently the case in the Arab world and other countries. This paper analyzes the different dimensions of the inadequate employment situation of Chinese youth and provides evidence to support all five of these assumptions, although indications of direct actions being undertaken by unemployed young people in China in response are rather scarce. But aside from that, there are other forms of youth resistance as well. Many young people in the country vent their frustration over the internet, and opting out and cynicism can also threaten social harmony. Tertiary‐sector graduates make up approximately half of all young people entering the Chinese labor market every year and are the ones most affected by the currently unsatisfying job prospects. Though the unemployment of graduates is only short term in nature, a lack of job opportunities combined with declining opportunities for upward mobility carry strong potential to generate further uneasiness and disorder in China./p

39635. Sealing a Colombian peace deal: challenges of citizen ratification

Author:
Silke Pfeiffer
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
While a peace agreement between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the Colombian government seems to be within reach, a number of substantial and procedural issues might still cause controversies. One such topic is the question of how a potential peace agreement should be ratified. Both parties have made clear that ratification should involve direct citizen participation. The FARC's proposal for a broadly mandated Constituent Assembly is effectively not politically viable. Other constitutional options have practical, political and legal implications. A final formula will need to deal with the armed group's concern for the legal security of its members while rapidly generating a political mandate to proceed with implementation. The inevitable time lag between signature and ratification will most certainly become a political liability because the FARC is likely to refuse to lay down its weapons in this period. With low levels of trust between the parties and a society deeply sceptical of the guerrilla's intentions to abandon the armed struggle, all sides will feel the need to be protected against risks of non-compliance. The greatest risk related to citizen ratification remains non-approval, because large parts of the population continue to be sensitive – if not opposed – to the idea of granting wide-ranging concessions to the FARC. Mobilising a strong political and social majority behind the peace process and a potential deal is a priority if a final agreement is to survive popular scrutiny and become a foundation for lasting peace.
Political Geography:
Colombia

39636. Beyond terror: addressing the Boko Haram challenge in Nigeria

Author:
Kate Meagher
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Addressing the Boko Haram insurgency in northern Nigeria requires policymakers to look beyond Western security templates of Islamic terrorism to grasp the underlying causes of what is primarily a Nigerian conflict. This policy brief examines the four explanatory factors behind the insurgency: economic marginalisation, governance failures, extremist operations and security failures. Economic causes are traced to poverty, unemployment and extreme inequality between northern and southern Nigeria, while governance failures relate to national religious polarisation, political brinksmanship among religious elites, and rampant corruption in the face of mass poverty. The focus on extremist operations considers the shifting objectives and recruitment strategies of Boko Haram, which tend to confound clear policy analysis, while an assessment of security failures notes their role in driving rather than reining in radicalisation. Recommendations for international policy interventions focus on four areas of constructive engagement. These include diplomatic pressure on the Nigerian government to demonstrate adequate political will to address the insurgency, supporting human rights training and providing appropriate equipment for the military, providing more socially differentiated support for the generation of dignified livelihoods appropriate to both the educated and uneducated unemployed, and more concerted support for the compensation of Boko Haram's victims.
Political Geography:
Nigeria

39637. Boko Haram: origins, challenges and responses

Author:
John Campbell
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Boko Haram is a radical Islamist movement shaped by its Nigerian context and reflecting Nigeria's history of poor governance and extreme poverty in the north. The movement is unique in that it combines a sectarian, radical Islamic agenda with violence. Its stated goal is the establishment of a sharia state, but it shows little interest in actually governing or implementing economic development. It is based on the fundamentalist Wahhabi theological system and opposes the Islam of the traditional northern Nigerian establishment, which is broadly tolerant. Boko Haram and its more radical splinter, Ansaru, are steadily expanding their area of operations. Kidnapping has become a major source of revenue and is widespread, while attacks have occurred in Lagos and Kano. The government's response has been to treat Boko Haram as a part of the international al-Qaeda movement. Security service abuses are likely a driver of some popular support for or acquiescence to Boko Haram. The struggle between the government and Boko Haram has dire humanitarian consequences. Many people have been internally displaced in northern Nigeria and many refugees have fled to neighbouring countries. The international community may be asked to help provide humanitarian assistance in what is one of the poorest parts of the world.
Political Geography:
Nigeria

39638. Why Mpeketoni matters: al-Shabaab and violence in Kenya

Author:
David M. Anderson
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The massacre at Mpeketoni in June 2014 signalled a new departure for al-Shabaab in its violent attacks on the Kenyan state. Justifying the attack as retaliation for the extrajudicial killings of Muslim leaders and the general oppression of Muslims, and as an act of war, al-Shabaab dem-onstrated a keen awareness of the sensitive political position of Kenya's Muslim population. Having been founded in a nationalist context in Somalia, al-Shabaab appears now to be rein-venting itself in the context of Kenya's troubled domestic politics. Claims that the Mpeketoni violence was based on local politics only underline the success of al-Shabaab's “reinvention”. The Kenyan state has done little to win support amongst its own Muslim population for its cur-rent invasion of southern Somalia. Its efforts to contain al-Hijra, an al-Shabaab franchise now operating in Kenya, has involved heavy-handed policing, most recently in Operation Usalama Watch, and has seen the killing and “disappearance” of more than 20 Muslim leaders. Kenya's government now needs to rebuild trust with Muslim communities in its north-eastern border areas, and elsewhere, and to seek a consensus against radicalisation. This should involve a reconsideration of policing methods, the creation of opportunities for political dialogue with Muslim leaders, and a more sensitive, culturally appropriate and equitable approach to Muslim communities in general.
Political Geography:
Kenya and Somalia

39639. Turkey's new focus on Africa: causes and challenges

Author:
Ali Bilgic and Daniela Nascimento
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Although Turkey had no past colonial involvement with African countries, there has been an increasing revival of Turkey's relation with the continent since the end of the 1990s, which reached a peak after 2005. From then on, along with a focus on Central Asia, the Balkans and the Middle East, Turkish foreign policy started shifting its focus to Africa, and as a new donor country Turkey's political and economic relations with sub-Saharan African countries have intensified significantly. This policy brief analyses and discusses the main economic, political, and strategic motivations behind these shifts and priorities, as well as some of the perceptions and current challenges this change in policy faces.
Political Geography:
Africa, Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, and Balkans

39640. Russia's development assistance, with a focus on Africa

Author:
Andrey Makarychev and Licínia Simão
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
It was not until 2007 that the concept of development assistance became part of the Russian foreign policy toolkit. This policy brief explains Russia's development assistance policy – mainly towards Africa – as an effect of the country's global commitments and socialisation dynamics, on the one hand, and Moscow's growing interest in exploring the potential of soft power as an indispensable element of its diplomacy, since both aspects are interrelated. The policy brief also looks at the mismatches between Russia's normative discourse in its assistance towards Africa, and the economic and geopolitical interests it pursues simultaneously. This provides room for reflection on the specificities of so-called South-South cooperation, with which the BRICS grouping in particular is often associated.
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Moscow