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  • Author: Saori N. Katada
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
  • Abstract: The world has experienced many financial crises. Despite numerous research and policy efforts in prevention to present them at of large scale, the global economy has not seen economists' (and investors') Nirvana of financial globalization without the occasional crises. On the contrary, the increasing dynamism and changing nature of financial flows across national borders seem to have created a larger number of new problems for creditors, debtors and international financial institutions. That has typically been true for middle income countries in Latin America and Asia and, very recently, in Eastern Europe, which have been integrated into the international financial system. During the two decades between the late 1970s and the late 1990s, three major sets of financial crises originated from those middle income countries, intensifying concerns for international financial stability.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, Israel, East Asia, Latin America, Central America, North America
  • Author: Thomas D. Willett
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
  • Abstract: Two major views dominate policy discussions of the role of international capital flows in the global political economy. While both believe that high capital mobility is eroding national sovereignty, one sees this as a positive step, that constrains governments' tendencies to follow overexpansionary macroeconomic policies for domestic political gain and promotes convergence toward low rates of inflation. Advocates of this viewpoint would typically agree with Haggard and Maxfield (1996) that “Increased financial integration holds governments hostage to foreign exchange and capital markets, forcing greater fiscal and monetary discipline than they might otherwise choose” (p. 36). This view is implied by most of the currently most popular economic models. The second viewpoint sees international capital markets as capricious followers of fads and fashions that pose serious challenges to domestic financial stability. The statements of Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, Prime Minister of Malaysia are typical of this view.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Robert E. Ebel, John Taylor
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: This panel report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies considers an issue of critical importance to U.S. national security interests: Is the United States now pursuing a well-conceived and effective program of working with Russia to dispose of the vast amounts of separated plutonium that have become excess to the nuclear weapons needs of the two countries?
  • Topic: Security, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States
  • Author: Dr. Magnus Ranstorp
  • Publication Date: 06-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
  • Abstract: This article contains a careful description and analysis of the transformation of' Hizballah from a small rag-tag militia, skillfully combining terrorist and guerrilla warfare techniques with effective social action on the local level during the chaos of Lebanon's civil war, to a formidable, legitimate political, military and social force on the Lebanese scene in the 1990's, in what has been described as its 'Lebanonization' process. This so-called 'Lebanonization' process of Hizballah has become a trademark of the movement. It is visible in the close interrelationship between its political, social, and military activity which has extended its opportunities. It shows an ability to exercise pragmatic judgement within the conditions and limitations imposed on it by Syria's agenda and within the confessional nature of Lebanon's political make-up. It also demonstrates the limits of Hizballah's manoeuvring within the framework of the wider Iranian- Syrian relationship and the limits to its ability in presenting itself as an alternative oppositional force amidst sectarian politics and Syrian hegemony. Hizballah strongly emphasizes that it is entirely Lebanese in character rather than a foreign entity directed by Iran in order to reinforce its internal legitimacy within Lebanon.
  • Topic: Human Welfare, Politics, Terrorism, War
  • Political Geography: Iran, Lebanon, Syria
  • Author: C.J.M Drake
  • Publication Date: 06-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
  • Abstract: Ideology plays a crucial role in terrorist's target selection; it supplies terrorists with an initial motive for action and provides a prism through which they view events and the actions of other people. Those people and institutions whom they deem guilty of having transgressed the tenets of the terrorists' ideologically-based moral framework are considered to be legitimate targets which the terrorists feel justified in attacking. As an extension of this, ideology also allows terrorists to justify their violence by displacing the responsibility onto either their victims or other actors, whom in ideological terms they hold responsible for the state of affairs which the terrorists claim led them to adopt violence. While it is not the only factor which determines whether a potential target is attacked, ideology provides an initial range of legitimate targets and a means by which terrorists seek to justify attacks, both to the outside world and to themselves.
  • Topic: Security, Government, Peace Studies, Terrorism
  • Author: Imtiaz Hussain
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: Environmental concerns were seen by some as "a welcome guest in the free trade party" when they were first taken seriously in the early 1990s. Although they have since mushroomed in size and significance, the debate rages if policy measures are responding to demand. Trading behavior, for example, has not altered appreciably owing to the mounting pressures, but agreements increasingly acknowledge the need for safeguards. On the one hand is the problem of public pressure, very often of grassroots origins, upon policy-makers at all levels—multilaterally, internationally, regionally, nationally, and locally. On the other is the inquiry if policy impact is evolving differently, not only at various policy-making levels, but also in various parts of the world. How, indeed, have concerns and policy measures meshed? My broad response elaborates why environmental protectionism is chosen as a topic first, then explains the selection of cases for comparison, before turning to theoretical considerations, the empirical study itself, and finally drawing conclusions and implications, all in that order.
  • Topic: International Relations, Environment
  • Political Geography: Europe, Maryland
  • Author: Imtiaz Hussain
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: Conventionally viewing the state as a black box and focusing almost exclusively on its outward orientation, the Westphalia paradigm, I argue, has outlived its purpose and may even be misleading when applied to the more porous and democratic state today. Rather than measure state viability in terms of power balances abroad, three constituent elements extracted from the Westphalia literature are used to evaluate internal state viability instead: the relationship between nation and the state, the capacities of the state itself, and the state within a collectivity. Whereas the first is operationalized in terms of Buzan's four-fold typology, the second focuses on how two forms of internal divisions have been resolved-between city and country interests over policy-making, and between various classes in society through governmental income redistribution programs-while the third evaluates the propensity of the state to delegate loyalties to any supranational entity in the 1990s. Over 160 sovereign countries are pooled into 5 geographical regions for the analysis. The results strengthen the above argument, and generally portray the exceptionalism of West Europe: It is the global hub of established nation states, even though there are more state nations worldwide whose historical emergence accented internal development over external security considerations; viable states, measured in terms of established democracies, urban preponderance over policy making, and welfare redistribution; and transferring loyalties beyond the state.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Organization, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Westphalia
  • Author: Imtiaz Hussain
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: Given the historical depth of Franco-German enmity, or erbfeindschaft, how have integrative efforts in West Europe been shaped by this rivalry? Three sets of tensions are identified in addressing that question: the theoretical tussle to explain West European integration; the explosive historical relationship between the two countries; and their cooperative, complementary relationship in European Community policy-making. For analytical purposes, two hypotheses connect these sources of tension in the multifaceted, complicated subject mater of Franco-German relations. These are that when the Cold War was in full fury, both countries found cooperation a gar superior strategy than discord; and when the Cold War ended, disagreements increased without eliminating cooperation. Both are tested through a comparative study of agricultural and monetary policies of the Community, and prefaced by a rapid historical riffle of the ups and downs in that bilateral relationship. The conclusion is drawn that the Community interlocked the two countries in such a way as to make disengagement costly in spite of increasing divergences, and that this engranage was possible because of the Cold War context.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Cold War, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe, Germany
  • Author: Imtiaz Hussain
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: How do we reconcile economic competitiveness with trade regionalism? This exploratory investigation first takes stock of how competitiveness has been defined by both economists and political scientists, then extracts an inclusive model from the different literatures, and finally broadly assesses business transactions and trends across North America using that model. Beginning with the Ricardo-Viner and Hecksher-Olin explanations, various types of competitiveness articulated by Michael Porter, Mancur Olson, and David Mares are subsequently brought in. preliminary findings presented as hypotheses for future testing, suggest that: that evaporation of hegemony has resulted in multiple claims to competitiveness across North America, policy convergences are more widespread and common than ever before, regional-level cooperation provides an efficient means for all three countries to offset global competitiveness, and domestic interests, though still a potential veto force, are slowly embracing, rather than opposing, supranational efforts.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, North America
  • Author: Imtiaz Hussain
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: The proliferation of regional trading blocs in the 1990s raises a fundamental question: To what extent is policy-making shifting from the national government to a regional entity? The conversion of GATT into the World Trade Organization, also in the 1990s, further complicates the search for an answer since new or revitalized multilateral rules also exert influences upon policy outcomes. I apply that question to a study of farm policy, with the European Union and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as my cases. The next two sections profile the importance of agriculture and my rationale in selecting the two cases before pointing gout the organization of the remainder of the study.
  • Topic: Agriculture, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, North America
  • Author: Judith Mariscal, John B. Horrigan
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: Technology policy in the United States has undergone a dramatic transformation in the past ten to twelve years, as the government has increasingly played an active role in the high-tech sector and as the sector itself has faced growing competition from foreign competitors. Truths (or apparent truths) which once were unquestioned—that the U.S. government should only intervene in technology for national security reasons, that entrepreneurial high-tech firms operate best as "lone rangers" in the marketplace—have been closely scrutinized. The result of such scrutiny is that government and industry have changed their perceptions about their roles in a world in which the economic and competitive environment shifts rapidly. Another outcome is that technology policy has taken on increasing importance in U.S. policy circles. We see in the Clinton Administration plans to promote the information superhighway, proposals to overhaul the way in which the telecommunications industry is regulated, support for government-industry research consortia, closer linkage of trade and technology policy, and in general a much closer industry government relationship with the high-tech sector.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Imtiaz Hussain
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: Created to cultivate interaction between domestic and supranational economic arrangements/institutions, the North American Free Trade Agreement is in increasing need of arrangements/institutions which bridge political boundaries as well. The document's binational panels, for instance, have been authorized to review domestic duty determinations, but have also dragged domestic political practices, customs, arrangements, and institutions into the supranational arena, in turn exposing potentially deep differences across national boundaries. A comparative study of both basic and complex domestic political structures, affected directly or indirectly by NAFTA's dispute settlement procedures, reveals: that as reciprocal relationships increase, arrangements and/or institutions at both levels, domestic and supranational, become more vulnerable; and that different experiences across national boundaries may produce uneven degrees of integration. These findings lead to an explorative assessment of political integration stemming form the economic integration currently underway.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Trade and Finance, Politics
  • Political Geography: North America
  • Author: Imtiaz Hussain
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: Given the historical depth of Franco-German enmity, or erbfeindschaft, how have integrative efforts in West Europe been shaped by this rivalry? Three sets of tensions are identified in addressing that question: the theoretical tussle to explain West European integration; the explosive historical relationship between the two countries; and their cooperative, complementary relationship in European Community policy-making. For analytical purposes, two hypotheses connect these sources of tension in the multifaceted, complicated subject matter of Franco-German relations. These are that when the Cold War was in full fury, both countries found cooperation a far superior strategy than discord; and when the Cold War ended, disagreements increased without eliminating cooperation . Both are tested through a comparative study of agricultural and monetary policies of the Community, and prefaced by a rapid historical riffle of the ups and downs in that bilateral relationship. The conclusion is drawn that the Community interlocked the two countries in such a way as to make disengagement costly in spite of increasing divergences, and that this engrenage was possible because of the Cold War context.
  • Topic: International Relations, Cold War, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Germany, Maryland
  • Author: Imtiaz Hussain
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: Environmental concerns were seen by some as "a welcome guest in the free trade party" when they were first taken seriously in the early 1990s. Although they have since mushroomed in size and significance, the debate rages if policy measures are responding to demand. Trading behavior, for example, has not altered appreciably owing to the mounting pressures, but agreements increasingly acknowledge the need for safeguards. On the one hand is the problem of public pressure, very often of grassroots origins, upon policy-makers at all levels—multilaterally, internationally, regionally, nationally, and locally. On the other is the inquiry if policy impact is evolving differently, not only at various policy-making levels, but also in various parts of the world. How, indeed, have concerns and policy measures meshed? My broad response elaborates why environmental protectionism is chosen as a topic first, then explains the selection of cases for comparison, before turning to theoretical considerations, the empirical study itself, and finally drawing conclusions and implications, all in that order.
  • Topic: Development, Environment
  • Political Geography: Europe, North America
  • Author: Eugene Spiro
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: The EastWest Institute convened in partnership with the Kazakhstan Institute of Management, Economics and Strategic Research (KIMEP) International Conference on Banking Policies on December 9-12, 1998. The purpose of the conference was to present Kazakh officials, academicians and bankers with practices (best and otherwise) in CEE and the West on bank privatization and reduction of the state's role in banking; costs and benefits of foreign strategic investment in the banking sector; and issues related to bank supervision, regulation and deposit insurance.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Kazakhstan, Asia
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Signs of emerging alignments between groups of states in and around the CIS space are have become more notable in recent years. The development of subregional relations is an inevitable consequence of the geographical, political and economic changes brought about by the disintegration of the USSR.
  • Topic: Security, Government, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Renata Dawn
  • Publication Date: 11-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Since 1992-93, the EastWest Institute (EWI) has been organizing meetings of a 'Strategy Group for Strengthening Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe'. The Strategy Group brings together representatives of the Central and Eastern European Associates of the European Union and Ukraine (an d Western states and neighbouring countries where appropriate) to discuss the security challenges facing the region. The Strategy Group aims to foster the development of cooperative solutions to the problems facing Central and Eastern Europe. Participants in Strategy Group conferences and workshops come from diverse backgrounds, including governmental representatives, politicians, business people, academics and non-governmental representatives.
  • Topic: International Relations, Democratization
  • Political Geography: Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Maryland
  • Author: Dag Hartelius, Natasha Randall
  • Publication Date: 11-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Over the last year we have witnessed a deteriorating climate in Russian-Western relations - or at least this has been the perception. The Russian financial crisis has accelerated the trend in Russia to blame the West - in particular the US - for their troubles. In America and Europe a new debate has been spawned on what kind of Russia we are now dealing with. Old truths, or old perceptions, are being questioned and relations are being reassessed.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, America, Europe, Asia
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Interdependence, both political and economic, between the different parts of the Baltic Sea region is growing. This means that there is a strong case for cooperative strategies rather than policies based on zero-sum thinking. The positive outcome of the Latvian referendum should be regarded as a crucial building element to promote this cooperation.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, America, Europe, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, Maryland
  • Author: Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: In this report we wish to provide a brief account of what the EWI Baltic Initiative Fund has accomplished in its first year, and of some of the things we are hoping to achieve in the future. Our experience over the past eighteen months has convinced all of us at EWI that there is a job to be done, and that we have a real contribution to make. The very favorable responses we continue to receive from our Baltic partners encourage us to believe that our program is indeed worthwhile and fills an important need.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Maryland
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: On 19 September 1998, the EastWest Institute and the Pro Democracy Association hosted a Seminar on Regional Development Policies in Romania for representatives from the North-west Development Region in the town of Felix near Oradea in Bihor county. The participants included central governmental officials responsible for implementing the newly adopted Law on Regional Development, Members of Parliaments from the region, and representatives from regional and local institutions, local business and non-governmental organisations.
  • Topic: Development
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Maryland
  • Author: Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: The Communist dominated Duma sent a stern message to President Yelstin on September 7th by rejecting his nominee, Viktor Chernomyrdin, for the second time. The vote was 273 against and 138 for (with one abstention). While Chernomyrdin's showing improved substantially from the Duma's first ballot, he still fell far short of the 226 votes needed for Duma approval. Furthermore, his gains came largely from Zhirinovsky's nationalist faction, which has a crass history of trading votes to “the highest bidder.” Yelstin's opposition, on the other hand, benefited from the support of independent deputies comprising a group called “Regions of Russia”: their approval of Chernomyrdin dropped from 86% to 50% in the second round.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Allen Collinsworth, Robert Orttung, Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: At approximately 12.30 p.m. EST today, the Duma rejected Chernomyrdin's nomination as Prime Minister by an open ballot vote of 251-94 (with 105 abstaining). 226 votes are needed to confirm him. Chernomyrdin's own Our Home Is Russia party provided most of his support (64 votes). Zhirinovsky's party, the Liberal Democrats, abstained (49 votes). Analysts underscored the weakness of support for Chernomyrdin by noting that, in the first round of voting on the nomination of Prime Minister Kiriyenko five months ago, Kiriyenko polled 143 votes in favor. This was in secret balloting, however, which to some extent invalidates the comparison.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: The latest private reports from Moscow indicate that the Duma is very likely to reject Viktor Chernomyrdin's candidacy for Prime minister next week. Tomorrow, Aug. 28 th , at 3:00 pm, the Duma and the Federation Council will meet to decide whether to recommend a vote on Chernomyrdin's candidacy. Whereas Chernomyrdin's chances are bleak, the fluid nature of current Russian political situation makes it impossible to firmly rule out his confirmation as prime minister, a post which he very much wants.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Since our Aug. 20th report, the situation in Russia has developed dramatically. On Friday (Aug. 21st), the lower house of the Russian parliament (the Duma) overwhelmingly called for Yeltsin's resignation and changes in the government and the leadership of the central bank. The Duma also passed a non-binding resolution demanding nationalization of some banks and restriction of foreign participation in domestic capital markets. In response, the RTS index of leading Russian shares fell 5.56% to 81.76 on negligible trading volume of $4.2 million. Central bank head Dubinin announced plans to activate Russia's precious metals reserves (approximately $5 billion of $15.1 billion total foreign exchange reserves) to support the ruble. On Sunday, Aug. 23rd, in an action anticipated in our Aug. 17th report, Yeltsin dismissed Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and installed in his place Viktor Chernomyrdin.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Russian capital markets were already in what George Soros described as a “financial meltdown in . . . its terminal phase” on August 12th. Since then, capital markets have deteriorated significantly in reaction to measures announced by the Russian Government on Monday, Aug. 17th (summarized in Section II below). IEWS is actively evaluating the nature and extent of the crisis and trying to project its likely course.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Dr. Renata Dwan
  • Publication Date: 06-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Since 1992-93, the Institute for EastWest Studies (IEWS) has been organizing meetings of a 'Strategy Group for Strengthening Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe'. The Strategy Group brings together representatives of the Central and Eastern European Associates of the European Union and Ukraine (and Western states and neighbouring countries where appropriate) to discuss the security challenges facing the region. The Strategy Group aims to foster the development of cooperative solutions to the problems facing Central and Eastern Europe. Participants in Strategy Group conferences and workshops come from diverse backgrounds, including governmental representatives, politicians, business people, academics and non- governmental representatives.
  • Topic: Development, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Maryland
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Doubts were expressed as to the extent one could define the Caucasus and Central Asia as a single region, particularly for the purposes of exploring the potential for subregional cooperation to develop among its constituent states. External considerations (complex relationship between Russia and the states involved; presence of other outside actors; energy transit perspectives; influence of external conflict, i.e. Afghanistan) may point towards consideration of the Southern Tier as one region. However, internal perspectives, geographical, historical, political and cultural, suggest that treating subregionalism separately in the Caucasus and Central Asia might be a more realistic and potentially fruitful approach.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: New York, Europe, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, Maryland
  • Author: Eugene Spiro
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: The EastWest Institute is interested in the issue of banking supervision as one of the primary goals of our Economics Program since 1990 has been to support the establishment of a reformed, market-based banking system in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Former Soviet Union (FSU). As an integral component of our broader work in providing expert support to commercial bank managers and economic policymakers on the concrete aspects of implementing reform-oriented practices and strategies, we see the underlying stability and transparency of the banking system to be of critical importance. In Hungary as elsewhere, banks are indispensable to the smooth functioning of the economy, and the EWI has long subscribed to the view that the banking sector (e.g. in the context of privatisation) is a 'special' sector and requires special treatment.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Soviet Union, Maryland
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: The decision to enlarge the European Union to applicant countries in Central and Eastern Europe is by far the most important instrument to secure the process of democratic and market economic reform in the new, post-Cold War Europe. To implement and manage this decision is indeed a challenge to both the existing members of the Union and the applicants. In principle, the roadmap is clear. Together with the acquis communautaire , the 1993 Copenhagen criteria outline the main framework for the way to full membership. The Union has further developed its enlargement strategy in the Agenda 2000 presented in July 1997.
  • Topic: Economics, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe, Maryland
  • Author: Dr. Renata Dwan
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Since 1992-93, the Institute for EastWest Studies (IEWS) has been organizing meetings of a 'Strategy Group for Strengthening Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe'. The Strategy Group brings together representatives of the Central and Eastern European Associates of the European Union and Ukraine (and Western states and neighbouring countries where appropriate) to discuss the security challenges facing the region. The Strategy Group aims to foster the development of cooperative solutions to the problems facing Central and Eastern Europe. Participants in Strategy Group conferences and workshops come from diverse backgrounds, including governmental representatives, politicians, business people, academics and non- governmental representatives.
  • Topic: International Organization, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Ukraine
  • Publication Date: 02-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Security and Integration in Eurasia's New Boundary Zones: The Role of Sub-Regional Relations' is the second year of a project which the Institute for EastWest Studies (IEWS) is running with generous support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. This project explores the contribution made by intergovernmental sub-regional groupings to security and integration in the OSCE area. In 1996-97 a detailed comparative study of six Central and Eastern European groups was undertaken and the role they play in assisting states of the region in their democratic transition, in entering wider European integration processes and in increasing the stability and security of the the region. Two conferences were held and a book summarizing the conclusions of the six case studies will shortly be published. Cooperative relations with OSCE, EU and WEU have been established to help develop these international organizations' policies toward sub-regional relations.
  • Topic: Security, International Organization, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: New York, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, Maryland
  • Publication Date: 02-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Security and Integration in Eurasia's New Boundary Zones: The Role of Sub-Regional Relations' is the second year of a project which the Institute for EastWest Studies (IEWS) is running with generous support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. This project explores the contribution made by intergovernmental sub-regional groupings to security and integration in the OSCE area. In 1996-97 a detailed comparative study of six Central and Eastern European groups was undertaken and the role they play in assisting states of the region in their democratic transition, in entering wider European integration processes and in increasing the stability and security of the the region. Two conferences were held and a book summarizing the conclusions of the six case studies will shortly be published. Cooperative relations with OSCE, EU and WEU have been established to help develop these international organizations' policies toward sub-regional relations.
  • Topic: Security, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: New York, Europe, Eastern Europe, Maryland
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Confidence-building is a process aimed at increasing security and stability amongst and within nation states. It begins with the recognition of each state's legitimate claim to security and proceeds on the principle of equality of all states involved. Confidence, ultimately, is a matter of perception: transparency and inclusiveness are thus key elements in the building process.
  • Topic: Security, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Maryland
  • Author: G.B. Madison
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
  • Abstract: Globalization is a multifaceted phenomenon. In this paper I seek to discern some of the challenges it poses, as well as some of the opportunities it offers. To this end, attention is focused on three major aspects of globalization: the economic, the cultural, and the political. Particular consideration is given to the political-economic lessons to be learned from the recent East Asian financial (and economic) crisis; the homogenizing and civilizing ramifications of globalization in the realm of culture; and the relation between economic globalization, the threat it poses to the traditional notion of national sovereignty, and the prospects for the development of civil society, the rule of law, and democratic governance. The paper concludes by arguing that, as a result of the emerging global economy, we are witnessing the emergence of a new form of capitalism, qualitatively different from both 19th-century laissez-faire capitalism and 20th-century “managed” capitalism.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, Markets
  • Political Geography: East Asia, Asia
  • Author: George Galster
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Urban Institute
  • Abstract: As we approach the 21st century, the public seems increasingly disenchanted with the record of government, and less and less inclined to believe in the value of empirical analysis as a guide to action. Evidence of the loss of confidence in the public sector's ability to operate effectively and efficiently is found in opinion polls, falling rates of electoral participation, and the rising influence of "anti-government" politicians. In such an environment, it is useful to reflect on the historical role that applied social science has played in the public sector and the role it might play in the future.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Jeffrey S. Passel, Rebecca L. Clark
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Urban Institute
  • Abstract: This report provides essential demographic and economic information on legal immigrants residing in New York State and addresses significant shortcomings in the existing data for immigrants and in analyses of fiscal impacts of legal immigrants. It focuses on four major issues: the size of the legal immigrant populations; the characteristics of legal status groups, including both legal and undocumented populations; the incomes and taxes paid by immigrant populations and natives; and the economic adaptation of immigrants and their descendants.
  • Topic: Government, International Law, Migration
  • Political Geography: United States, New York
  • Author: Leighton Ku, Bethany Kessler
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Urban Institute
  • Abstract: This work was conducted under Subtask 2.2.12 of HHS Contract HHS-100-94-1009. Many constructive comments were provided by staff of the Department of Health and Human Services, including Linda Sanches, David Nielsen, Penelope Pine and Bob Tomlinson. We gratefully acknowledge data and advice made available by Ron North and Roger Buchanan of the Health Care Financing Administration and Charles Scott of the Social Security Administration. Many colleagues at the Urban Institute offered useful advice or data, including Brian Bruen, Rebecca Clark, Teresa Coughlin, Linda Giannarelli, Jeff Passel, Karen Tumlin and Wendy Zimmerman. All opinions expressed are the authors' and should not be interpreted as opinions of the Urban Institute or the Department of Health and Human Services.
  • Topic: Government, Migration
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Matti Pohjola
  • Publication Date: 11-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: There is substantial evidence that new information technologies are in many ways transforming the operations of modern economies. More than half of employees use a computer at work in the most advanced industrial countries. About 10 per cent of the value of all private investment in fixed non-residential capital is devoted to computers and peripheral equipment in the United States and some other economies. This share goes up to 25 per cent when investment in information processing equipment is included. Nevertheless, all spending on information technology, including hardware, software and services, does not amount to more than 3-4 per cent of nominal GDP in these countries. The share is, however, increasing rapidly, indicating that a steady state has not yet been reached.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Francis Kramarz
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: The rapid diffusion of computers has widely changed the consequences of computer use on the labour market. While at the beginning of the eighties knowledge of computers was an obvious advantage in a career, this same knowledge is now so commonplace that the inability to use these tools is widely seen in many industries as a professional handicap. In relation to such drastic transformations, changes in the North American wage structure during the eighties in favour of the better educated have been interpreted by many analysts as evidence of skill-biased technical change. Evidence outside the US, and in particular in Europe, seems to support the idea that similar transformations affected most other labour markets.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Tony Addison
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: Reconstructing Africa's war damaged economies is an urgent task. This is especially so in a group of countries - Angola, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, and Mozambique - which must also complete their economic and political transition from state socialism. Somalia, which shares their common history, must eventually be rebuilt. All of these countries must address their deep problems of underdevelopment and poverty. The challenges are therefore three-fold: to overcome underdevelopment, to make the transition from state socialism, and to reconstruct economies and societies.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets
  • Political Geography: Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Somalia, Angola, Eritrea, Guinea-Bissau
  • Author: Richard M. Auty
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: Since the 1960s the resource-rich developing economies have under-performed compared with the resource-deficient economies. This paper explains why and outlines the reforms that are required in order to achieve environmentally and socially sustainable resource-rich development. It argues that structural change in the resource-rich countries causes the tradeable sector to shrink vis-à-vis the nontradeables sector (that includes protected manufacturing) in a manner that is not sustainable. This adverse trend in the production structure is associated with policies to close the economy and create discretionary rents behind protective barriers that result in the cumulative misallocation of resources. The build-up of produced capital and skills is slower than in the successful resource-deficient countries. Overall, the inherently slower and less egalitarian economic growth trajectory of the resource-rich countries is intensified and the end result is usually a growth collapse. The collapse causes all forms of capital, including institutional, social and natural capital, to run down. Economic reform is therefore protracted and it may take in excess of one generation to restore sustainable rapid growth. The adverse features of resource-rich development tend to be more pronounced in the smaller countries. They are also heightened where the resource rents accrue mainly to the central government, as in the mineral economies and in the slow-reforming transition economies. Successful reform requires not only appropriate macro and micro policies, but also the construction of institutions to limit the scope for governments to misallocate resources. Part of the explanation for the superior performance of the resource-deficient countries is that their spartan endowment of natural capital acts as a constraint on government failure by placing a premium on the need to nurture scarce resources, including skills, institutions and social capital, and to achieve an efficient allocation of capital.
  • Topic: Economics, Environment, Government, International Political Economy
  • Author: Sergio Rebelo
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: Starting from the celebrated neoclassical (Solow) model of economic growth, this paper discusses new ideas in growth theory focussing on how to make sustained growth feasible. It first reviews models that broadened the notion of capital to include human capital and the state of technology. These extensions of the neoclassical theory are not very satisfying at a descriptive level because productivity growth is associated with either human or physical capital accumulation in a way that does not interact with the invention of new technologies.
  • Topic: Economics, Science and Technology
  • Author: Jonathan Krueger
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: The international community is increasingly turning to the use of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) to solve problems of global environmental degradation and transboundary pollution. One of the most important of these MEAs is the 1989 Basel Convention dealing with transboundary movements of hazardous waste. The Convention has been instrumental in helping to eliminate the dumping of industrialized countries' hazardous wastes on developing countries. However, the development of the regime has been slow and it is now tackling the more controversial issue of regulating 'recyclable' hazardous wastes. This briefing paper provides a short guide to the development and current status of the international effort to manage transboundary movements of hazardous wastes.
  • Topic: Environment, Globalization
  • Author: Peter I. Hajnal
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia International Affairs Online
  • Abstract: As the next millennium approaches, the international community faces the fundamental challenge of devising at the global level mechanisms for governance to reinforce, and at times replace, those that have operated effectively for several centuries at the national level. The end of the cold war has substantially eliminated a world divided among a democratic west, communist east and non-aligned south, highlighted a host of new transnational, human security priorities and led to the demise of the self-contained "national security" state. The advent of globalization in finance, investment, trade, production and communication has led many national economies to be integrated into a single global economy, whose healthy functioning is increasingly vital to the well being of citizens even in large, advanced industrial economies such as the United States and Japan. Finally, new openness and technology have meant that many issues once dealt with primarily as a part of domestic politics - supervising banking systems, protecting the environment, combating organized crime, drugs and disease, ensuring nuclear safety, and creating employment, have now come to require collective international action for their effective accomplishment.
  • Topic: International Organization, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Europe
  • Author: Ariel Dinar, Senai Alemu
  • Publication Date: 11-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia International Affairs Online
  • Abstract: Treaty-making, or negotiation/consultation processes on international water are guided usually by formal and informal rules, including international law, and accumulated experience, and are also affected by domestic politics. Generating a base-line agreement is a difficult task, which combines scientific uncertainty with political, economic, cultural and ideological issues.
  • Topic: Environment, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Dennis C. Blair, Robert L. Gallucci, John M. Shalikashvili, John J. Hamre, Sam Nunn, Paula Scalingi, Richard E. Combs, Janne E. Nolan, Henry G. Chiles, Theodore S. Gold, John D. Holum, Richard C. Macke, Joerg H. Menzel
  • Publication Date: 06-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia International Affairs Online
  • Abstract: The changing nature of technology and the proliferation of advanced commercialized technology are causing a transformation in the nature of threat and security issues and perceptions. The role of technology within the security environment has greatly enhanced the capabilities of both state and non-state actors. Concurrently, the use of technology has increased the vulnerabilities of states to the point where actors with a minimal amount of resources, such as transnational groups or terrorist organizations, can inflict significant harm on their victims. Although these actors are not capable of attacking the United States or its allies head-on, they may be able to exploit technology or use weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to present the United States or its allies with asymmetric threats and attacks. As a consequence, the traditional objectives and methods surrounding arms control and threat reduction must be adapted to in incorporate these new threats and to inject some certainty into an uncertain situation.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Les Bissell, Johanna Hjerthen, Balachandar Jayaraman, Elizabeth Karkus, John Leahy, Gerald Mulder, Pamela Chasek, David Leonard Downie, Kevin Baumert, Sean Clark, Joshua Tosteson
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia International Affairs Online
  • Abstract: In December 1997, the Third Conference of the Parties (COP-3) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) met in Kyoto, Japan to negotiate a protocol to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Two of the main features of the Kyoto Protocol are (1) legally binding requirements for Annex I countries to reduce collectively their emissions of six greenhouse gases by at least 5.2% below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012; and (2) flexibility measures, including joint implementation (Article 6), a Clean Development Mechanism (Article 12) and emissions trading (Article 17, which appeared as Article 16bis in the draft Protocol text adopted in Kyoto) to encourage countries to meet their obligations at the lowest cost. Although emissions trading (ET) provisions were included in the Kyoto Protocol, the Parties did not establish rules and guidelines for the trading system. Instead, Governments have been asked to address these issues at COP-4, to be held in Buenos Aires, Argentina on 2-13 November 1998.
  • Topic: Environment, International Cooperation, International Law
  • Political Geography: Europe, United Nations
  • Author: Bjørn Moller
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The paper is introduced by an analysis of the concept of region, followed by an application of this analytical framework to the Persian Gulf region. Several problems in this region are identified, including a seemingly open-ended arms race and a significant risk of war. As a possible remedy to these problems, the author proposes a policy of Common Security, intended to satisfy the legitimate security problems of all states in the region. As a consequence, he recommends efforts to ensure the strictly defensive nature of the military postures of regional states, to be implemented unilaterally as well as by means of arms control negotiations and regulations of the international arms trade. The paper concludes with a Postscript on the Iraqi crisis of 1997/98.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East, Persia
  • Author: Pirjo Jukarainen
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Spatial politics is 'alive and kicking'. Human aspiration to define, represent and master spaces has not ended. Claim about 'the end of the geography', due to the decreasing importance of spatial distance or location, is thus misleading. Albeit the mode of spatial politics is obviously changing, it does not mean that it would completely loose its significance. Northern hemisphere makes no exception in this respect. An analysis of the Nordic journal, 'Nord Revy' (later called 'North') shows that spaces are actively constructed and spatial development strategies are extensively formulated also in the name of 'northernness'. 'Northernness' gets multiple meanings and becomes 'real' within various spatial representations. This analysis covers about seven years of spatial development starting from the year 1990, thus somewhat revealing the overall spatial politics of the 90's.
  • Topic: Politics, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Marta Martinelli
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: In 1993 Bouthros Bouthros-Ghali expressed his admiration for the methods performed by a group of Catholic peace-lovers, called Community of Sant'Egidio, in their attempts at mediating a deep rooted conflict like the one in Mozambique. He said: " The Community of Sant'Egidio has developed techniques which are different but at the same time complementary to those performed by professional peace-makers. The Community has discreetly worked in Mozambique for years, towards a peaceful adjustment to the situation...It has practised its techniques characterised by confidentiality and informality, together and in harmony with the official work of international governments and inter-governmental organisations. Starting from the Mozambican experience the term "Italian formula" is used to explain this mixture, unique in its kind, of commitment to peace, governmental and not. Respect for the parties to the conflict and all those involved in the field is fundamental for these initiatives to be successful"
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Africa, Italy, Mozambique
  • Author: Béla Greskovits
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
  • Abstract: While reviewing various interpretations of the postcommunist transformation it is demonstrated that the manner social scientists think about postcommunism has much in common with the ideas of their predecessors who faced the emergence of capitalism over the past centuries. What explains the continuity of the major views? Why did the debate on the perspectives of capitalism and on the nature of its strengths and weaknesses reappear in the new historical case of postcommunist market society? This author argues that neither the specific historical nor the systemic context of capitalist expansion can account for the prevalence of competing interpretations. Rather the latter is the standard way social scientists think about systems and systemic change in general. But the trench-war between rival views of postcommunist market society also reflects the impact of new psychological, political, and institutional factors specific to the mass-production of social science ideas towards the end of the XXth century.
  • Topic: Communism, Economics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Sidney Tarrow
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
  • Abstract: While much research has focussed on the interest group process growing up around the institutions of European union, far less attention has been given to the contentious forms of politics appearing at the base of the process of European integration. Part of the problem lies in models of integration that either focus on single levels of the European Union — states or supranational entities — or on vertical policy networks and domains. But another important part results from the difficulty of systematically analyzing the reactions of ordinary people to EU directives. This paper both reports on a new, computer-assisted method of studying European contentious politics and draws on a case study of recent industrial conflict to demonstrate how supranational actors, national political elites, domestic social actors and the press are beginning to interact to produce a composite — and contentious — European polity.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Pierre Pestieau, Claudine Gouyette
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
  • Abstract: In general, when the concepts of efficiency and of welfare state are coupled, one first thinks of the effects of the welfare state, notably including the taxes it implies and the benefits it generates, on the efficiency of the economy. This topic has been widely discussed in recent works. One of the main charges addressed to modern welfare states is, indeed, that they would hurt economic performance and international competitiveness. Another charge just as widespread is that they would be inefficient in the provision of social services, and be responsible for the proliferation of transfer programs that are costly and miss their target populations. This charge is thus different from the first one, though not totally unrelated. It concerns the economic efficiency of the welfare state per se, and this is the topic of this paper.
  • Topic: Government, Political Economy
  • Author: Stefan Troebst
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Centre for Minority Issues
  • Abstract: Not too much of inside knowledge of the Balkans was needed to realise that the winter of 1997/98 turned the formerly autonomous Yugoslav province of Kosovo inhabited predominantly by Albanians into one of the most violent-prone crisis zones in Europe. In September 1997, a massive protest movement of Albanian students gained momentum; from November 1997 on, an underground "Liberation Army of Kosovo" (UÇK)) with an estimated strength of several hundred fighters increased the number of attacks on and assassinations of Serbian officials and police officers; and the regime retaliated first by police violence, show trials, long-term sentences, and nationalist tirades, then by bringing more and more security forces into the central part of Kosovo. In January 1998, The Economist depicted Kosovo as "Europe's roughest neighbourhood”.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Albania
  • Author: Pal Dunay
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The story of post-World War 2 European integration had started before integration theory gained popularity. One has to bear in mind, however, that the idea of European integration was launched with modest objectives in the 1950s. Except for some visionary statesmen, like Jean Monnet and some others, both the subject matters to be covered by integration and the geographical scope was limited. Six countries aimed at establishing a free trade zone and not much else was on their "plate" when they signed the Rome Treaty on 25 March 1957.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: John Lewis Gaddis
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The single most striking feature of the post-Cold War environment is the diffusion, not the disappearance, of threats. The half-century extending from 1941 to 1991 was, for the United States, one in which threats were both focused and obvious. From the time of the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor until the final collapse of the Soviet Union exactly fifty years later, we knew who our enemies were, or at least might be. As a consequence, we abandoned the isolationism that had characterized most of our history in favor of an unaccustomed but - as it turned out - highly effective internationalism.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: William I. Hitchcock
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: Ever since the end of the Cold War, analysts have engaged in long discussions about what sort of international order would replace it. Though these discussions have ranged widely in their assessments, they usually took as their starting point a common assumption: that the Cold War order and the basic structure of international relations it represented, was over and done for. From 1989 until about 1995, this assessment seemed accurate: the alliance was falling apart, war broke out in Europe, the western economies were in a tailspin, and the delicate architecture that bound Germany to the states of Western Europe seemed to be in jeopardy, overburdened by the arrival of a united, powerful Germany. Whatever order we had, it didn't seem like anything we had seen before.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: Yuri Nazarkin
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The starting point for this paper is the National Security Blueprint of the Russian Federation approved by Presidential Decree No. 1300 dated 17 December 1997. As the Blueprint itself clarifies, it is "a political document reflecting the aggregate of officially accepted views regarding goals and state strategy in the sphere of ensuring the security of the individual, society and the state from external and internal threats of a political, economic, social, military, man-made (technogennyy), ecological, information or other nature, in the light of existing resources and potential." It is a conceptual document of a general nature which is intended to be the basis for the elaboration of specific programmes and organisational documents in the sphere of ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: Fred Tanner
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The dynamics of European security has become considerably more difficult to comprehend in recent years. This is due primarily to two sets of developments. First an "amorphous threat-free post-Cold War security setting" has replaced the distinct Alliance-wide threat from the Soviet Union. Second, new risks and threats have increasingly affected European security from regions immediately adjoining Western Europe. Conflicts and notorious instability loom in the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Balkans and the Mediterranean region, including North Africa and the Middle East. As a consequence, security cooperation in Europe currently struggles to cope with these risks of non-military nature and ambiguous threat scenarios from the "out-of-area".
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: William C. Wohlforth
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The most important security threat Russia faces, and the main threat it poses to the rest of the world, is its own implosion. If traditional security has to do with the manipulation and managment of the use of military force by states, then Russia's major contemporary problems must be understood under the "new security" rubric. Because the world has never before had to deal with the breakdown of a nuclear superpower, the security challenges Russia presents are certainly novel. But if "new security" is supposed to encompass problems that are transnational in nature and challenge state-centric analysis, then it too does not capture today's Russian question. For at the root of Russia's security problems is the absence of an effective government. To be sure, all of these problems are made more complicated by globalization. Many of them would continue to pester world politics even if Moscow had a capable government. But the root of these problems and the reason they present such great potential dangers is the absence of a capable state in Russia.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: Thomas Risse, Sarah Mendelson, Neil Fligstein, Jan Kubik, Jeffrey T. Checkel, Consuelo Cruz, Kathleen McNamara, Sheri Berman, Frank Dobbin, Mark Blyth, Ken Pollack, George Steinmetz, Daniel Philpott, Gideon Rose, Martha Finnemore, Kathryn Skikkink, Marie Gottschalk, John Kurt Jacobsen, Anna Seleny
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The last decade or so has witnessed a resurgence in scholarship employing ideational and cultural factors in the analysis of political life. This scholarship has addressed political phenomena across a variety of national and international settings, with studies of European politics being particularly well represented. For example, the work of scholars like Peter Hall (1993), Peter Katzenstein (1996), Ronald Inglehart (1997), Robert Putnam (1994) and Daniel Jonah Goldhagen (1995) has improved our understandings of European polities, societies and economies. Yet despite a recent rise in interest, ideational and cultural explanations still meet with skepticism in many quarters of the discipline. Some scholars doubt whether non-material factors like ideas or culture have independent causal effects, and others, who accept that such factors might matter, despair of devising viable ways of analyzing their impact on political life.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Democratization, Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Nationalism, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, France, Latin America
  • Author: Kenneth Prewitt
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: Networking is ubiquitous, Networks are not. By networks we have in mind professional and scientific collaborations unrestricted by geography—a group of scholars taking advantage of improved mobility and communication to work across institutional and national boundaries. This report draws from a conference that inquired into the role of networks in research, training and institution-strengthening in sub-Saharan Africa—terms commonly, if loosely, associated with "capacity building." Although the conference focused on networks that were making headway toward their declared goals, the purpose was not to celebrate success stories. It was to be analytic, with the intention of identifying generic questions and preliminary answers, particularly lessons of use to those involved in building, maintaining, strengthening and funding professional networks.
  • Topic: Development, Third World
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Richard T. Carson, Donald R. McCubbin
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California
  • Abstract: Concerns about the sustainability of resource use have no doubt been raised since civilization began. The most famous proponent of these concerns is Thomas Malthus (1976), who, in 1798, predicted that population growth would outstrip the ability of agriculture to supply food, and mass starvation would ensue. More recently, the widely read Limits to Growth report, by Meadows et al. (1974), presented a model of resource use and development that predicted humans would face unprecedented pollution and starvation, if current resource use patterns continued into the future. Of course, both reports' most dire predictions have not come true for several reasons. They failed to account for improvements in technology, the power of market prices to ration scarce resources, and the public's demand for environmental preservation when confronted with a perceived scarcity of environmental goods. Although the dire predictions failed to materialize, many believe that environmental quality will deteriorate as the world's economies grow, unless there are significant changes in human behavior. In this paper we make a modest attempt, using air pollution data, to examine the linkage between economic growth, human behavior, and environmental quality.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Environment
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Rebecca Johnson, Fraser Cameron, Alberto Navarro, Thierry Tardy, Sophia Clement, Glenys Kinnock, Tom Spencer, John Palmer, Joao de Deus Pinheiro, Christian Kudlich, Paolo Foresti, Hubert Heiss, Peter Ricketts, Elie Marcuse, Johannes Swoboda, Patricia Chilton, Maj Theorin, Stelios Stavrides, Thomas Eckert, Karen Smith, Krister Bringeus, Alexandra Laignel-Lavastine, Ognyan Minchev, Janos Vandor, Eric Remacle, Pauline Neville-Jones, Vasilij Likhachev, Peter Truscott, Jannis Sakellariou, Jesus Nunez, Claire Spencer, Birchara Khader, Alain Gresh, Lotte Leicht, Tim Hancock, David Nyheim, Francisco Rey, Bronwyn Brady, Geraldine O'Callaghan, Peter Saveiys, Brian Wood, Kiflemariam Gebrewold, Bernd Hemingway, Alyson J. K. Bailes
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Information Service
  • Abstract: In his opening remarks as Chair of the conference, Tom Spencer, Chair of the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, congratulated the organisers on their excellent timing. The European Union was now in a phase of 'pragmatic' evolution of CFSP and he believed the next nine months presented opportunities for progress.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Ali Carkoglu
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Conflict and cooperation constitute the basis of much interest in political analysis. Nevertheless, political theory abounds in disagreement as to which predominates, which constitutes the norm and as to the reasons for their occurrence. Game theoretical models have been applied to these problems with some success. The proposed article aims to contribute to our understanding of the phenomena of creating cooperation, and thus regulating a situation of conflict between two actors by a third party. A third party will be introduced to a prisoners' dilemma game and conditions for its cooperation creating regulatory strategies will be derived. The impact of informational and institutional structures on the prospects for cooperative outcomes will be discussed. Applications to governments' policies in regulating domestic conflict and to a hegemon's problem of maintaining order in the international arena will be shortly discussed.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Law
  • Author: Christopher Chase-Dunn, Thomas D. Hall, Susan Manning
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: All world–systems with at least a chiefdom level of political organization exhibit a pattern of the rise and fall of large polities. Among chiefdoms this pattern has been referred to as "cycling". In state–based systems it is known as the rise and fall of empires. And in the modern system it is called the "power cycle" or the "hegemonic sequence." This paper reexamines the question of synchronicities of rise and fall in systems linked only by very long distance prestige goods trade. Earlier research found that increases and decreases in the territorial sizes of empires and the population sizes of cities were highly correlated in East Asia and West Asia/Mediterranean regions from about 600 BCE to 1500 CE. Though data were somewhat scarce for South Asia, it appeared that Indic civilization did not rise and fall in tandem with the East and the West. In this paper we report an improved test of the synchronicity of empire sizes and the different pattern found in India
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: South Asia, East Asia
  • Author: Young Jong Choi
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Japan's preference toward regional institutions has received a great attention in recent years in relation to the development of regional institutions in Asia (exclusively East Asia) and the Pacific (the broader Asia-Pacific region). Japan's policy toward Asia and the Pacific has often been characterized by "hegemonic defection" and Japan as a "reactive state". The former indicates the absence of Japan's leadership in regional institution building (Mack and Ravenhill 1995: 8). The latter portrays Japan as incapable of pursuing pro-active policies in regional affairs because of its consensus-oriented culture, historical legacy of colonialism, domestic political gridlock and most of all extreme dependence upon the U.S. security umbrella (Calder 1988; Hellmann 1988; Pyle 1992; Curtis 1993).
  • Topic: Diplomacy
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Jack E. Holmes, Kevin Joldersma, Aaron Keck
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: The author has studied U.S. foreign policy long cycles for two decades and has an extensive database covering 1776-1990. A good deal of attention has been paid to U.S. foreign policy in the post-1945 setting where the U.S. is a world superpower. Now that the U.S. has been freed from the immediate demands of the Cold War, it is important to study American policy over the long run, especially the period before 1945. This paper uses conclusions from the author's previous work to raise issues which have implications for the study of world long cycles. Particular attention is given to consensus (societal/governmental) variables since the U.S. is one of the few countries with a long history under the same written constitution. The American experience indicates that the U.S. is inclined toward independent action as sometimes dictated by domestic considerations. While it is clear that the U.S. will act as a superpower in part due to the nature of the international system, it is important to consider some uniquely American features which also have an important impact on policy. The author's work includes two books on long-term American foreign policy trends. The first one, The Mood/Interest Theory of American Foreign Policy, was published in 1985. It presented a general theory regarding how and why introvert and extrovert foreign policy moods alternate every two decades. This theory, as well as the dates of the cycles, is based on the work of Frank L. Klingberg (1952). Klingberg elaborates on his cycles in later works (1983 and 1996). Since the 1985 work contained a good deal of theory, it was thought that a more empirical study of these trends would be in order. Toward this end, the author created over 150 variables which have been given annual values for at least 150 years. These variables were based on the work of other authors and compilations of data. The resulting work, Ambivalent America, which has been the basis for several convention papers and is nearing completion as a book, raises a second set of conclusions which supplement those of the first book. At the same time, several authors have investigated world long cycles and raised a number of important issues. Most of these authors emphasize the period since the start of major European influence on the world while others go back prior to that period. With the exceptions of works by Klingberg and this author, however, similar attention has not been given to American trends. Pollins and Schweller (1997) do explore some issues relating to interactions of American and world cycles. The author believes that a conceptual comparison of American long cycles with world long cycles will raise some important issues, and that is the purpose of this paper.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Cold War
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Erik Melander
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: This paper presents a simple and straightforward model of the security dilemma in settings in which the parties lack secure second–strike capabilities with weapons of mass destruction. The model includes first–strike advantages and incomplete information as to the antagonist's preference ordering. Imperfect information is used to simulate mutual fear of surprise attack.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Government
  • Author: Layna Mosley
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: A central research problem in comparative and international political economy concerns the implications of economic globalization - and more specifically, of international capital mobility - for national economic policy choice. A large body of recent literature suggests that governments are, at least to some extent, constrained by relatively high levels of international capital mobility (Garrett, 1998; O'Brien, 1992). At the very least, the asset allocation decisions of financial market participants affect interest rate levels, and, therefore, the cost of borrowing for governments and private actors.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Tong Whan Park
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Though a half century has passed since the creation of a modern nation-state, Korea lags far behind Western European nations in the development of a civil society. It may be due to a number of factors, the most important of which could be the different path to modernization Korea has taken and the forced imposition of the nation-state system on a Confucian social structure. As such, the Seoul government's decision-making in general and foreign policymaking in particular have often lacked sensitivity to what the citizens may think and desire.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: Israel, Korea, Western Europe
  • Author: James C. Roberts
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: In 1969, Johan Galtung proposed that physical violence be measured as the difference between actual and potential life expectancy. Structural violence occurs when the cause of this difference is caused by the economic structure of society. Measuring actual life expectancy is not difficult but potential life expectancy cannot be observed, it can only be projected.
  • Topic: International Relations, Peace Studies
  • Author: Gerald M. Steinberg
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: Since the beginning of the atomic age in 1945, the possession and deployment of nuclear weapons has become the dominant factor in the international system. Those countries that acquired nuclear weapons have become (or maintained their status as) primary world powers, but as the number of such countries grew, the potential for the use of nuclear weapons also increased. In the early 1960s, President Kennedy warned that unless immediate and significant action was taken, within a decade there would be as many as 20 nuclear powers. The process of proliferation was seen as one of the most dangerous and destabilizing aspects of the nuclear era.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, India
  • Author: Charles Tilly
  • Publication Date: 06-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
  • Abstract: November 1830 brought London to one of its greatest nineteenth-century peaks of visible, vigorous, and often violent popular contention. When King William IV rode in state through Westminster from St. James to the opening of Parliament on 2 November, people who gathered along the streets cheered the king but jeered prime minister Wellington. Onlookers roared “Down with the New Police! No martial law!” (MC [ Morning Chronicle] 3 November 1830). Near Parliament, two people waved tricolor flags, ten or a dozen men wore tricolor cockades, and members of the crowd cried out “No police” or “Vote by ballot” (LT [ Timesof London], 3 November 1830).
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, London
  • Author: Charles Tilly
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
  • Abstract: How do diverse forms of political contention—revolutions, strikes, wars, social movements, coups d'état, and others—interact with shifts from one kind of regime to another? To what extent, and how, do alterations of contentious politics and transformations of regimes cause each other? These questions loom behind current inquiries into democratization, with their debate between theorists who consider agreements among elites to provide necessary and sufficient conditions for democracy and those who insist that democracy only emerges from interactions between ruling-class actions and popular struggle. They arise when political analysts ask whether (or under what conditions) social movements promote democracy, and whether stable democracy extinguishes or tames social movements. They appear from another angle in investigations of whether democracies tend to avoid war with each other.
  • Topic: Democratization, Politics
  • Author: Rodney W. Nichols, Susan U. Raymond, Margaret Catley-Carlson, Allan Rosenfield, Michael E. Kafrissen
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: New York Academy of Sciences
  • Abstract: Surely one of the oddest of all recent debates is well underway in the United States. At issue is whether, in the year 2000 the population of the nation should be counted nose-by-nose, on foot, by an phalanx of freshly minted, part-time, house visiting census-takers (who evidently missed 8.4 million residents the last time they tried in 1990) or whether a technique should be used that would employ statistical sampling methods to reach census conclusions. The majority of those most heatedly engaged in the public debate probably did not even like math in school; many would not be able to explain the likely accuracy of either method. But debate they do, in the time-honored tradition of policy making in democracies—largely because the coveted prize is not merely an accurate count of the number of individuals, but more importantly an advantageous decision on the number of voters in electoral districts.
  • Topic: Government, Health, Politics, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Peter Huber, Susan Raymond, Rodney W. Nichols, Kenneth Dam, Kenneth R. Foster, George Ehrlich, Debra Miller, Alan Charles Raul, Ronald Bailey, Alex Kozinski
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: New York Academy of Sciences
  • Abstract: As science and technology push the edges of understanding, innovation makes the once unimaginable merely quotidian. The flow—the torrent—of change inevitably meets the stock of laws and regulations that structure society. And, often, the legal system and the judiciary must cope with the resulting swirls, eddies, and, at times, whirlpools of ethical controversy and economic and societal choice.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Law, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States, New York, America
  • Author: Soodursun Jugessur, Susan U. Raymond, Stephen Chandiwana, Clive Shiff, Pieter J.D. Drenth, D. N. Tarpeh, Iba Kone, Jacques Gaillard, Roland Waast
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: New York Academy of Sciences
  • Abstract: This paper examines the eureka factor in science based development and underscores the increasing concern that Africa lags behind in S due to political and social instability coupled by low investments in technologies. The paper emphasises that African science should come up with a decisive policy for investment in new style education and capacity building for S that is relevant to the African experience and addresses problems of real concern to the community. Science led development in Africa should reduce replication of foreign technologies and invest in social capital of its scientists and its R institutions for sustainable economic development. The aim of the paper is not to offer prescriptive solutions but to highlight areas which should stimulate debate in small working groups examining how Africa can learn from its own experience as well as that of other nations in developing an appropriate system of innovation for science led development.
  • Topic: Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, Government, Industrial Policy, International Cooperation, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States
  • Author: Richard Danzig, John D. Holum, Rodney W. Nichols, Susan U. Raymond, Joshua Lederberg, Stephen S. Morse
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: New York Academy of Sciences
  • Abstract: Having lived through, and indeed taken a leadership part in, the American Revolutionary War and the War of 1812, Thomas Jefferson wrote to Noah Worcester in 1817, "You have not been mistaken in supposing my views and feeling to be in favor of the abolition of war. Of my disposition to maintain peace until its condition shall be made less tolerable than that of war itself, the world has had proofs, and more, perhaps, than it has approved. I hope it is practicable, by improving the mind and morals of society, to lesson the disposition to war; but of its abolition I despair."
  • Topic: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Helen I. Safa
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: What are the social consequences of export-led industrialization, and are they a deterrent to sustainable development? This paper explores these questions by examining the link between export-led industrialization, the feminization of labor, and the growth of female-headed households in the Dominican Republic in a community that has undergone a marked shift in economic base from sugar production, employing mostly men, to export manufacturing, employing mostly women. Employment in export manufacturing gives women greater economic autonomy and greater leverage in the household, which, combined with deterioration in male employment, raises women's resistance to marriage and weakens the role of the male breadwinner. While female-headed households have increased in number, the economic and emotional support provided by consanguineal kin, often living in extended families, has enabled these households to function quite adequately. Under these circumstances, the female-headed household should not be seen as a deterrent to sustainability.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Gender Issues
  • Political Geography: Caribbean
  • Author: Anthony T. Bryan, Roget V. Bryan
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: Regionalism in the Caribbean has emerged as a response to overcoming the development constraints of small size. The theories and strategies that helped to advance the process of Caribbean integration are undergoing a revision because of the process of globalization and the momentum toward free trade in the Western Hemisphere. The Caribbean countries now have to adapt rapidly to the new global liberalization process, based on reciprocal commitments. The way forward is not easy. The road map for the new regionalism in the Caribbean reflects a paradigm shift in the earlier theory and practice of integration. This paper explores the new face of regionalism within the context of second generation regional integration theories and smaller economies' agendas. The dynamic is much more complicated than originally conceived by Caribbean theorists and economists.
  • Topic: Development, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Organization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Caribbean
  • Author: Anthony P. Maingot
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: This study focuses on the complex interaction between local political, social, and economic exigencies and the imperatives of the global economy in Trinidad. Local systems operate according to the perceived needs of their elites and the moral codes and biases of the political culture. In Trinidad, the dominant biases have to do with racial competition. For more than five decades, efforts have been made to use the state to extend economic rights to underprivileged Afro-Trinidadians. In the mid-1980s, however, a shift in macroeconomic thinking led to liberalization and a growing gap between the traditional nationalist/statist ideology and the actual decisions of political elites. This paper explores this unresolved incongruity through a case study of Petrotrin, the national petroleum company that oversees the fast-growing oil and gas sector.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, Politics
  • Political Geography: Caribbean
  • Author: Willian C. Smith, Nizar Messari
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: This paper explores President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's record and his attempt to seek reelection on October 4 over the challenge of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, candidate of the Workers' Party (PT) and the left. These events are examined in the context of a central, inescapable dilemma of contemporary Brazilian politics: how to reconcile the exigencies of the market and globalization with the equally compelling needs to promote democracy while combating poverty, violence, and social exclusion. The paper concludes with analyses of various alternative politico-economic scenarios for Brazil following the October elections.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Economics, Globalization, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Brazil
  • Author: Alberto Cardelle
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: The increasingly diminished role of the state in Latin America has been accompanied by decentralization of health care delivery and an enhanced role of the private sector in delivery of services. Simultaneously, in the process of regional democratization, the number of organized civil society groups, NGOs, has expanded, increasing the alliances formed between NGOs and governments in the process of state reform. This paper examines the experiences of 20 NGO-government collaborative health care reform projects undertaken in Guatemala, Chile, and Ecuador. Assessments are made as to how factors, such as civil society-state relations, democratization, state reform, and international pressure, have catalyzed or constrained policies promoting the collaborations. The projects' implementation processes are analyzed with an emphasis on determining their sustainability, and various aspects of the collaborations — for example, funding, coordinated planning, and training — are evaluated. The paper concludes with a set of policy recommendations for future implementation of similar projects.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: Latin America
  • Author: Manuel Pastor, Carol Wise
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: Even as multilateral officials adamantly oppose the implementation of currency boards as a way of stabilizing exchange rates and inflation in the wake of the recent Asian financial crisis, Argentina remains committed to such an arrangement. This paper explores the political and economic conditions that prompted Argentine policymakers to adopt an economic management model in 1991 that is generally considered to be less flexible than other approaches now prevailing in Latin America. Short-term outcomes as well as longer-term patterns of economic restructuring now underway in Argentina are analyzed. The authors argue that, despite considerable success on the macro-stabilization front, policymakers still have their work cut out in terms of designing a set of second-phase measures to facilitate smoother adjustment at the microeconomic level.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Latin America
  • Author: Stephen Lander, Ambler Moss
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: The creation of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) was the bold centerpiece of the Summit of the Americas held in Miami in December 1994, and the FTAA recently received further impetus at the Summit of the Americas II in Santiago, Chile. This Agenda Paper, comprises two essays, one an overview of the process by Ambler Moss, “Moving Toward a Free Trade Area of the Americas,” and the other a look forward by Stephen Lande, “Launching Negotiations and Concrete Progress by the Millennium,” which assesses the progress made to date in working toward the FTAA and particularly examines the subject of “business facilitation” or measures designed to enhancethe flows of trade even as the FTAA is being negotiated.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Latin America
  • Author: Gisela Salomón
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: In June 1992, 172 governments meeting at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, agreed to work together to promote sustainable development. Five years later, in 1997, environmental problems continued to deteriorate. In this article, Gisela Salomón analyzes the difficulties faced by Latin American countries in implementing Agenda 21 and points to areas where progress has been made in sustainable development. The author expresses the need for governments to strengthen their political will to implement environmental strategies and to consider not only the economic aspects of development but social and ecological as well, emphasizing the importance of conscience-building, especially through education.
  • Topic: Development, Environment
  • Political Geography: Latin America
  • Author: T.V. Paul
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
  • Abstract: In this paper, I explore the impact of globalization on one of the fundamental functions of nation-states—national security. Contrary to the polar positions of the proponents and the opponents of globalization, I argue that national security still remains a core function of the nation-state, but the extent of security behavior varies depending on the particular situations of states. Largely under the influence of systemic changes propelled by the end of the Cold War, rapid technological changes in both the civilian and military spheres, and the resurgence of the American hegemonic power, the nature of security competition has altered somewhat, but it is premature to bury the nation-state or its role as the key provider of national security.
  • Topic: Security, Globalization, Government
  • Political Geography: America
  • Author: David Satterthwaite
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: In considering how the Istanbul Declaration on Human Settlements and the Habitat Agenda, the two key documents agreed upon at the Habitat II Conference, deal with poverty (and with other important issues, such as sustainable development1), it is easy to point to a lack of precision in some of the language used, the repetition, and the tendency toward long lists of "problems" with little consideration of their linkages (and often their underlying causes). But this might also be an inevitable result of any document that had to be endorsed by representatives of so many different governments. Where the wording on some controversial issue appears unclear or imprecise, this may be because any greater clarity or precision prevented agreement by some representative of a government or some group of countries, such as the Group of 77 or the European Union.
  • Topic: Security, Industrial Policy, Poverty, United Nations
  • Author: Andrew Moravcsik
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Formal international human rights regimes differ from most other forms of international cooperation in that their primary purpose is to hold governments accountable to their own citizens for purely domestic activities. Many establish international committees, courts, and procedures for this purpose. Why would governments establish an arrangement that invades domestic sovereignty in this way? Current scholarship suggests two explanations. A realist view asserts that the most powerful democracies seek to externalize their values, coercing or enticing weaker and less democratic governments to accept human rights regimes. A ideational view argues that the most established democracies externalize their values, setting in motion a transnational process of diffusion and persuasion that socializes less democratic governments to accept such regimes.
  • Topic: Democratization, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe
  • Author: Andrew Moravcsik
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Studies of international regimes, law, and negotiation, as well as regional integration, near universally conclude that political entrepreneurship by high officials of international organizations—“supranational entrepreneurship”—decisively influences the outcomes of multilateral negotiations. Studies of the European Community (EC) have long stressed their informal agenda-setting, mediation, and mobilization. Yet the studies underlying this interdisciplinary consensus tend to be anecdotal, atheoretical, and uncontrolled. The study reported here derives and tests explicit hypotheses from general theories of political entrepreneurship and tests them across multiple cases (the five most important EC negotiations) while controlling for the actions of national governments. Two findings emerge: First, supranational entrepreneurship is generally redundant or futile; governments can almost always efficiently act as their own entrepreneurs. Second, rare cases of entrepreneurial success arise not when officials intervene to help overcome interstate collective action problems, as current theories presume, but when they help overcome domestic(or transnational) collective action problems. This suggests fundamental refinements in the core assumptions about transaction costs underlying general theories of international regimes, law, and negotiation.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: J. Lawrence Broz
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Prevailing approaches to the politics of monetary policy in the United States are based on closed economy assumptions, which is appropriate for analyzing the period before about 1980. However, the opening of U.S. and foreign financial markets since the early 1980s has had a profound effect on domestic monetary policy and domestic monetary politics. The major policy effect is that the transmission channels of monetary policy now include the exchange rate. The major political effect is that the exchange rate has become a focus of concern for well-organized industries in the traded goods sector and, by extension, for Congress. This paper presents statistical evidence showing that the forces driving congressional activity on monetary policy have changed dramatically with the international financial integration of the U.S. economy. Exchange rates, as opposed to interest rates, now largely determine congressional attentiveness to monetary policy and the Federal Reserve.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Frances Hagopian
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: How do governments struggling to consolidate new democracies enact effective stabilization and adjustment policies, reform the public sector, and deregulate markets? And what has been the impact of economic liberalization on political institutions and systems of political representation? Treating economic and political transitions as mutually interdependent, this paper couples these questions to suggest a reformulation of the conventional wisdom about how economic liberalization proceeds and how political interests are determined. It challenges the assumption that neoliberal reform is most readily achieved in liberalizing polities when visionary political leaders surrounded by coherent economic teams with comprehensive programs in place act with a wide margin of autonomy from society. It also questions the contention that structures of political representation are the outgrowth of either economic organization or the product of state engineering. The paper makes two arguments. Its central argument is that economic reform is accomplished most readily when government reformers, acting through available clientelistic, corporatist, and party-based networks of mediation, negotiate the compliance of public and private sector representatives of social actors for the introduction of market-oriented reforms. They trade public resources or legislation favoring the representational status of political or social actors in the present for the agreement of those actors to accept diminished state resources for their organizations or constituents in the future. The use of specific networks of negotiation, moreover, influences the design of liberalization policies and helps to account for national differences in the pace and sequence of economic reform measures. The paper's second argument is that those systems of political representation that are strengthened as a result of the temporary advantages that accrue to them during the process of state retreat will endure even when they are incompatible with economic liberalism. This is so because the politicians and group leaders who manage these networks have the opportunity to design institutions that will allow them to accommodate themselves and adapt their power bases to economies in which the market plays a larger role.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: South America, Latin America, Central America, North America
  • Author: Kellee S. Tsai
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Our country does not permit the establishment of private banks. We must continue to investigate and impose discipline on non-banking financial institutions and other creditors that charge high interest rates. This is clearly one of the most important measures for ensuring order in the entire financial system.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Devesh Kapur
  • Publication Date: 02-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: In recent years, the World Bank has been at the vanguard in pressing for a circumscribed role for the State in developing countries. It therefore comes as somewhat of a surprise that the 1997 World Development Report (WDR - the World Bank's annual flagship publication), The State in a Changing World, underscores the continuing significance of the State in LDCs.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Organization, Third World
  • Author: Christina R. Sevilla
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Multilateral trade complaints are significant for politics because they serve as a stimulus for the targeted state to alter its status quo trade policy. This paper seeks to explain and predict patterns of multilateral trade complaints filed by states under the dispute settlement mechanism of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and its successor as of 1995, the World Trade Organization (WTO). A two-level model of complaint-raising is proposed, which argues that variation in the design of GATT and WTO institutions affects the costs to governments of filing complaints -- such as bureaucratic costs, information costs, and opportunity costs -- and these costs in turn affect state strategies for domestic oversight of treaty compliance by one's trading partners. Specific hypotheses drawn from the model are tested against a data set of over 300 multilateral trade complaints, from 1948-1994 under the GATT and 1995-96 under the WTO.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Organization, International Trade and Finance
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $14.2 billion in October, from $14.4 billion (revised) in September as exports increased more than imports.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 11-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $14.0 billion in September, from $15.9 billion (revised) in August as exports increased and imports decreased.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: No abstract is available.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States