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  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: The 1994 Benchmark Survey of U.S. Direct Investment Abroad was conducted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to obtain complete and accurate data on U.S. direct investment abroad in 1994. Reporting in the survey was mandatory under the International Investment and Trade in Services Survey Act.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Raymond J. Jr. Mataloni
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: The combined domestic and foreign operations of nonbank U.S. multinational companies (MNC's) continued to grow at a relatively fast pace in 1996. The growth in three key measures of MNC operations–gross product, employment, and capital expenditures — exceeded the average annual growth rate for 1989–95. According to preliminary estimates from the annual survey of U.S. direct investment abroad conducted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), worldwide gross product of U.S. MNC's (U.S. parents and majority–owned foreign affiliates combined) increased 7 percent, compared with a similar increase in 1995 and an average annual increase of 5 percent in 1989–95; employment increased 2 percent, compared with a 1–percent increase in 1995 and negligible growth in 1989–95; capital expenditures increased 5 percent, compared with a 7–percent increase in 1995 and an average annual increase of 4 percent in 1989–95.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Russel B. Scholl
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: The net international investment position of the United States—U.S. assets abroad less foreign assets in the United States—at yearend 1997 was a negative $1,223.6 billion with direct investment valued at the current cost of tangible assets, and it was a negative $1,322.5 billion with direct investment valued at the current market value of owners' equity (table A, chart 1). For both measures, the net positions were more negative in 1997 than they were in 1996.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: William J. Zeile
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: Since the surge in foreign direct investment in the United States in the late 1980's, much attention has focused on the role of foreign-owned firms in the U.S. economy, particularly in manufacturing. A question that is frequently posed concerns the degree to which U.S. affiliates of foreign companies are integrated into the U.S. economy through their sourcing behavior and value-added activity. A related question is whether U.S. manufacturing affiliates in comparison with domestically owned firms are more oriented toward producing for the U.S. market or for their home-country and other foreign markets.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Chantal Mouffe, Abdelwahab El-Affendi, Bert A. Rockman, Doreen Massey, Tony McGrew, Kimberly Hutchings, Niels Jacob Harbitz
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster
  • Abstract: Ideological disputes about the respective domains of the state and the market have convulsed much of the twentieth century. Yet recent research and experience suggest that the interaction between politics and economics, between the state and the market, is complex and systemic. An understanding of these systemic properties is crucial for effective democratic reconstruction. This is especially so in countries with a legacy of communism - such as the transition states of the former Soviet Union and East-Central Europe - where not only the market but the state, and indeed society, may have to be reconstructed, if not reinvented.
  • Topic: Gender Issues, Globalization, Government
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Soviet Union, Central Europe
  • Author: Chantal Mouffe, Abdelwahab El-Affendi, Bert A. Rockman, Doreen Massey, Tony McGrew, Kimberly Hutchings, Niels Jacob Harbitz
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster
  • Abstract: Does the power of the media threaten democracy (understood as the participation of the people in political debate and decision- making)? In answering this question we need to distinguish between three kinds of power: political, economic, and intellectual.
  • Topic: Gender Issues, Globalization, Government
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom
  • Author: William Minter, Chris Lowe, Tunde Brimah, Pearl-Alice Marsh, Monde Muyangwa
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Policy Information Center
  • Abstract: For most people in Western countries, Africa immediately calls up the word "tribe." The idea of tribe is ingrained, powerful, and expected. Few readers question a news story describing an African individual as a tribesman or tribeswoman, or the depiction of an African's motives as tribal. Many Africans themselves use the word "tribe" when speaking or writing in English about community, ethnicity or identity in African states.
  • Topic: Ethnic Conflict, Nationalism
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Policy Information Center
  • Abstract: The momentum for a comprehensive global ban on anti-personnel landmines is growing rapidly, and 1997 is a particularly decisive year. Africa is the most heavily mined continent, and African governments and non-governmental landmine campaigns are taking an increasingly prominent role in the global effort. The South African and Mozambican governments both announced comprehensive bans in February 1997, just as the 4th International NGO Conference on Landmines was convening in Maputo, Mozambique. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is being urged to quickly declare Southern Africa a mine-free zone, and non-governmental campaigns are gathering steam in many other African countries.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States
  • Author: William Minter
  • Publication Date: 03-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Policy Information Center
  • Abstract: This paper was prepared by APIC Senior Research Fellow William Minter for the Constituency Builders' Dialogue organized by the Africa Policy Information Center, held at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia, over the weekend of January 10-12, 1997. The Dialogue was designed as an opportunity for a diverse group of activists from different sectors of Africa advocacy work in the United States to step back, reflect and engage in dialogue on the strategic directions for grassroots Africa constituency-building in the current period. The Dialogue was made possible by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and by ongoing support from the Ford Foundation.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, New York
  • Author: Daniel A. Sharp, Ezra Vogel
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Assembly at Columbia University
  • Abstract: The American Assembly is embarking on the third and fourth phases of a project on "China/U.S. Relations in the Twenty-First Century: Fostering Cooperation, Preventing Conflict." The goal of this four phase project is to use the convening and consensus-building power of The American Assembly to produce a set of policy recommendations for the Clinton administration that will promote a constructive long-term relationship between the two countries.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Andrew Krepinevich
  • Publication Date: 08-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: This talk addresses two issues. First, given the level of American defense spending, are there enough resources available to sustain the U.S. presence in East Asia, over the long term, along the lines of the current commitment of approximately 100,000 troops? Second, even if there is adequate funding to maintain forward deployed troops, are these the kinds of investments we ought to be making, given the transformations we are seeing in the geopolitical environment and, I would argue, the military-technical environment? Will these investments, in other words, achieve American security objectives in East Asia over the next ten to twenty years?
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Israel, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Jennifer Amyx
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: This article focuses on the sankin kotai, or alternate attendance, system instituted in Japan during the Tokugawa period. Most traditional accounts of the sankin kotai system–which included an important hostage element–portray it as a product of Tokugawa statecraft devised primarily for the coercion and exploitation of daimyo, or territorial lords, and control over a feudal order. In addition, these accounts tend to take the distinctive stability of this era for granted. Given the chaos and bloodshed of the "warring states" period which preceded it, however, the phenomenon of 267 years of peace deserves a stronger explanation.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Japan, Israel, East Asia
  • Author: Paul Giarra
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: The conclusion of the Cold War has undercut presumptions about America's commitment to Asian security and the defense of Japan. The Cold War the need to contain the Soviet Union no longer exists as an inherent rationale and the organizing principle for an American national doctrine for overseas engagement. This is a major consequence of the end of the Cold War. The conclusion of the Cold War has undercut presumptions about America's commitment to Asian security and the defense of Japan. The Cold War the need to contain the Soviet Union no longer exists as an inherent rationale and the organizing principle for an American national doctrine for overseas engagement. This is a major consequence of the end of the Cold War.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, America, Israel, East Asia, Asia, Soviet Union
  • Author: K.C. Fung, Lawrence Lau
  • Publication Date: 05-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: China's presence in the world economy continues to grow and deepen. The foreign sector of China plays an important and multifaceted role in the country's economic development. At the same time, China's expanded role in the world economy is beneficial to all its trading partners. Regions that trade with China benefit from cheaper and more varied imported consumer goods, raw materials, and intermediate products. China also provides a large and growing export market. While the entry of any major trading nation in the global trading system can create a process of adjustment, the outcome is fundamentally a win-win situation. It is a simple but powerful lesson from economics that freer international trade and investments benefit all parties concerned.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Frederick Z. Brown, William Clinton, Jiang Zemin, William Itoh
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia Society
  • Abstract: Next week, when President Jiang Zemin comes to Washington, it will be the first state visit by a Chinese leader to the United States for more than a decade. The visit gives us the opportunity and the responsibility to chart a course for the future that is more positive and more stable and, hopefully, more productive than our relations have been for the last few years.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, China, New York, Asia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Moeen Qureshi, Meghan O'Sullivan, Michael Walton, Carol Graham, Moises Naim, Jacques Attali, Nancy Bearg Dyke
  • Publication Date: 12-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: As we start the final countdown to the new century, about one fourth of the world's population—1.3 billion people—live in absolute poverty, while almost another third are very poor by every measure. The blight of poverty thus continues to challenge the international community. Despite globalization, expanding markets, years of anti–poverty efforts and the hopes kindled in the embers of the Cold War, the number of the poor in the world has risen and continues to rise with population growth. The manifestations of extreme poverty and the growing gap between rich and poor, both within and between countries, pose an undeniable threat to the prospects for peace and security and raise concerns about inequity. Given the continued trend toward global interconnectedness, finding solutions to persistent poverty has assumed an unprecedented urgency. However, this pressing international issue is barely visible on the agendas of the industrialized nations, whose interests are affected and whose attention and resources will continue to be indispensable in the fight against poverty. To be sure, there has been progress in poverty reduction, particularly in the last decade as globalization, spreading capitalism and markets, and technological advancement have combined to reduce the percentage of people living in poverty and to create new middle classes. Infant mortality has been cut in half; life expectancy, on average, has increased by a decade. But recent developments in East Asia are a reminder that, even where development and poverty reduction have occurred, the possibility for reversal exists. And the persistently huge numbers of poor and pockets of extreme poverty testify to the unevenness of globalization and the need for new strategies and reinvigorated attention to the problem of poverty. The Aspen Institute International Peace and Security Program convened the conference on “Persistent Poverty in Developing Countries: Determining the Causes and Closing the Gaps” December 14, 1997, to discuss the current trends that affect poverty and suggest ideas for the most effective strategies for poverty eradication in the 21st century. Meeting in Broadway, England, the 24 experienced and highly respected participants from all regions of the world represented diverse professional and cultural perspectives that enriched the discussion.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Political Economy, Third World
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: John A. Riggs
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: The 14th Aspen PacRim Energy Workshop directed attention to continued strong prospects for growth in electric demand, and thus increased need for major additions to generation capacity. In particular, the meeting focused on the potential role of natural gas/LNG in the fuel mix for new generation capacity in the region. This Moderator's summary represents my views only in attempting to capture key points of the discussion; any errors or distortions are mine alone.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: David Bollier, Charles M. Firestone
  • Publication Date: 08-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: As use of the Internet has grown by leaps and bounds, it is clear that electronic commerce will proliferate rapidly in the years ahead. The number of Internet domains in the United States is more than 1.3 million. Most major companies now have Web sites, if only to market themselves, and many others are exploiting intranets to improve internal operations. As many as 163 million personal computers worldwide will have access to the Internet by the year 2000. As television and telephony migrate onto the Internet, wireless communication explodes, and countless other new applications attract users, one of the biggest challenges is understanding the economic and social logic driving change.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, Science and Technology, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 10-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Dr. LESLIE H. GELB (President, Council on Foreign Relations): Good evening. Welcome, members of the Council on Foreign Relations. Welcome, members of the Council on Foreign Relations Corporate Program and special guests, and our C-SPAN audience. We're here tonight to discuss and explore the substantive issues in the United States-Chinese relationship that will arise in the upcoming summit meeting between Chinese President Jiang Zemin and U.S. President Bill Clinton.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia
  • Author: Robert Rubin
  • Publication Date: 10-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: What I would like to do is use our time together this morning to discuss the importance of prosperity and growth in Asia to our own economic well-being and to discuss the challenges and opportunities in our relationship with China--subjects that are on a great many minds because of the recent financial instability in Southeast Asia and China's President Jiang Zemin's landmark visit to the United States.
  • Topic: Emerging Markets, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, East Asia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Pat Choate, Stuart Eizenstat
  • Publication Date: 09-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: September 29, 1997 Dr. LESLIE GELB: Good evening. Welcome to another in a series of Council on Foreign Relations great debates, which have been put together, advised, supported by a group of folks that I'd like to mention because they've worked with us so hard over the last couple of years doing these great debate programs, trying to bring more of the issues to you in the debating format and doing these policy impact hearings, these old-style congressional hearings where we try to prepare very carefully, to lay out a complicated set of facts and some policy alternatives.
  • Topic: Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Madeleine Albright
  • Publication Date: 09-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Secretary Albright: Henry, thank you very, very much for that introduction. I have to admit that as I got known to this new post--on which I'm very elevated--(laughter)--I had to call my predecessor, because I thought it was really important to touch base.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Dinah Lee-Kung, Samuel Berger
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: On Friday And Saturday, June 6 and 7, 1997, the Council on Foreign Relations hosted its second annual National Conference, drawing members from across the United States to discuss the future of U.S. relations with Asia. Continuing a Council tradition of involving a broad spectrum of professionals, the conference underscored the Council's push to engage the full range of regional perspectives in its intellectual work.
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Dr. LESLIE GELB (President, Council on Foreign Relations): Welcome to today's program on the United States and China: Strategic Partners or Adversaries? My name is Les Gelb. I'm President of the Council on Foreign Relations. And the Council, along with the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, has put together this panel because we think it's dealing with one of the most important, if not the most important, foreign policy question facing the United States. These Policy Impact Panels, as we call them, are designed to do two things. One, try to establish facts in a very complicated situation, because often we spend a lot of time wondering what the facts are or if they can be established. The second purpose is to lay out the policy alternatives, to give us a sense of what we can do about the problems or the facts.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia
  • Author: George Soros, Paul Krugman
  • Publication Date: 05-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Presider: Dr. LESLIE GELB: Welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations. Welcome, members; welcome, our C-SPAN audience; welcome, especially, to our two brilliant speakers tonight, George Soros and Paul Krugman. More about them later.
  • Topic: Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Publication Date: 03-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Ms. ELLEN FUTTER (President, American Museum of Natural History): Welcome to a panel discussion on 21st Century Surprises and Threats at the Council on Foreign Relations. I'm Ellen Futter, president of the American Museum of Natural History and moderator for this panel.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Ms. KAREN SUGHRUE (Vice President, Council On Foreign Relations): Ladies and gentlemen, we'd like to begin. Good evening. I'm Karen Sughrue. I'm vice president at the Council On Foreign Relations. I'd like to welcome you here tonight to the Policy Impact Panel, sponsored by the Council.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Benedicte Callan, Sean Costigan, Kenneth Keller
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: One of the great strengths of the U.S. economy is its capacity for innovation. Relatively young companies like Microsoft, Genentech, Intel, and Netscape bring verve to the American industrial landscape. The products they introduce transform the way we do business and the way we live. Older companies, like AT T, Ford, and IBM, prove that they can adapt new technologies to stay vital. Old or young, it is the commitment to research and development (R D) that has allowed these companies to come up with novel ideas, products, and processes. The American ability to foster high-technology industries is the envy of both advanced and industrializing countries alike.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Mickey Kantor
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: The challenges of the era of interdependence will constitute the greatest foreign policy test of the 21st century. The war over globalization and interdependence is at an end. Only the battles are yet to be fought. Those who cower behind walls of fear and fail to accept responsibility do so at their own peril, and will not turn containment into engagement, or mutual assured destruction into mutual assured prosperity. The approach of the new millennium finds us at the intersection of three epochal events: in politics, the end of the Cold War; in economics, the emergence of a global economy; and in technology, the rise of the Information Age. The intersection of economics, strategic issues, and political concerns is creating the glue which will bind together an updated U.S. foreign policy. Vast opportunities lie before us, and more than a few pitfalls. We face fewer serious military threats but an increasing number of competitors. The rise of competition, the need to create new opportunities, and the confluence of major economic and political changes create a need to intensely focus on U.S. priorities and goals. Despite this urgency, we have yet to fully articulate a foreign policy that matches the era in which we now live, especially the appropriate role of international economics. We need to direct our focus toward the lessons we have learned over the past five years. Seekers of universal truths or simple catch phrases should prepare in advance for disappointment. U.S. leadership in both the public and private sectors must accept the challenges represented by these enormous changes. Our willingness to take responsibility, clearly define our goals, and recognize our limitations but pursue U.S. leadership at every opportunity will dictate the success or failure of promoting a stronger United States and a less dangerous world. The goals and objectives are clear: U.S. leadership must pursue peace, stability, economic progress, basic human rights, and sustainable development. In order to address these goals we need to create foreign-policy tools and institutions that are pragmatic, practical, and resilient reflecting the speed with which events, opportunities, and challenges now confront us as a nation. There is no question that global economics has fundamentally changed the nature of foreign policy. Today, economics and foreign policy are no longer separable, and economic security and national security have become synonymous. We live in an interdependent, globalized world. No longer are we self-contained, nor is it in our interest to be so. We can no longer take for granted our global economic dominance and turn our back on foreign markets. It is self-defeating in the short run and impossible in the long run to ignore the problems which occur across the border or across the world, and we cannot overlook our responsibility as the world's remaining superpower. Driven by technological change, freed of Cold War conflicts and connected by economic and strategic interests, the era of interdependence demands negotiation, engagement, and leadership. Interdependence dictates that our foreign policy and economic future are increasingly connected to international trade. Interdependence dictates that terrorism, weapons proliferation, environmental concerns, the drug trade, and economic opportunity are now cross-border issues. These issues profoundly affect the everyday lives of people around the globe. Cross-border issues directly influence policies, laws, and regulations of the countries in question, raising issues such as the rule of and respect for law, regulation and deregulation, privatization, and other concerns heretofore thought to be strictly internal. This new era requires a redefinition of global leadership. Being the only remaining superpower does not simply mean that we are the strongest military power, nor does it mean only that we are the most economically competitive nation on earth. Both of those statements are true, of course. But holding the position of the world's only remaining superpower in the era of interdependence means that we have the opportunity to take advantage of the vast economic potential which is being created around the globe to the benefit of all Americans, and we have a corresponding obligation to rally other nations to pursue common long-term interests, such as strategic and political stability, economic progress, and sustainable development. There are other examples which support the notion of new multidimensional international relations. Brazil has dramatically increased its international standing and influence using its potential economic strategic position. During the Cold War and prior to the dramatic growth of economic power and industrialization, Brazil's strategic position would have been defined and dictated by its ability or inability to have an influence over strategic and political issues especially those concerning East-West relations. But today, and in the foreseeable future, not only do countries increase their influence based on economic potential and achievement, but economic considerations and relationships tend to bring entities together which in other circumstances could not or would not cooperate. The recent Middle East Economic Conferences and the participation of China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) are obvious examples.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Cold War, Diplomacy, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, America, Taiwan, Asia, Brazil, Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Author: Edward Lincoln, Kenneth Flamm
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: APEC, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, provides an opportunity for 18 countries with strong trade and investment ties to discuss a wide range of economic issues. APEC has scored two tangible achievements to date: a sweeping but vaguely worded 1994 pledge by its member states to open up to free trade and investment by 2010 and 2020, and a central role in the negotiation of the 1996 Information Technology Agreement (ITA). However, APEC is in danger of fading. When this year's summit begins on November 19, the United States must push for major reform of the APEC bargaining process if the organization is to have any chance of realizing its ambitious trade reform targets.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Organization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia
  • Author: Robert Z. Lawrence, Robert E. Litan
  • Publication Date: 10-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: The outcome of the fast-track debate that opened this month will determine whether the United States continues to lead the world toward a more open global economy or whether, for the first time since the end of World War II, it sends the opposite message.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Rodney W. Jones, Michael Nacht, Sergei Rogov, Kenneth Sr. Meyers, Steve Pifer, Nikolai Sokov, Alexei Arbatov
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: In his introductory remarks, Jones pointed out that key Russian interests in the terms of START II, which the United States shared and helped address in the early 1990s -- the denuclearization of Ukraine and the decoupling of Russian strategic forces from dependence on missile production plants in Ukraine -- faded into the background after START I entered into force and Ukraine acceded to the NPT as a non-nuclear-weapon state in December 1994. Russian criticism of START II thereafter focused on U.S. missile defense developments that could affect the ABM Treaty, on the heavy costs to Russia of implementing reductions, and on the unequal U.S. and Russian reconstitution potential under START II ceilings. By 1996, reactions to NATO expansion had become a further obstacle to START II ratification in Moscow.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Ukraine
  • Author: Brad Roberts, Richard Speier, Leonard Spector, James Steinberg, Hank Chiles, Rüdiger Hartmann, Harald Müller, Leonard Weiss, Ben Sanders, Valery Tsepkalo, Shai Feldman, Phebe Marr, Riaz Kokhar, Virginia Foran, Dennis Gormley, Michael Moodie, Gennady Pshakin, Wendy Frieman, Shah. Prakash, Munir Akram, Michael Krepon, Alexei Arbatov
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: It is a great pleasure to welcome you to this conference on "Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Enhancing the Tools of the Trade." Each year, preparing the agenda for this meeting and preparing my opening remarks, provides me the opportunity to survey our field, to take stock of recent accomplishments and set backs, and to anticipate the challenges ahead. In many respects the news in our field has been good. Since we met last, in February 1996: The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty has been opened for signature. The South-East Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone has entered into force for the regional parties, and the African Nuclear Weapon Free Zone has been opened for signature. The safeguards system of the International Atomic Energy Agency has been upgraded and the way opened for further enhancements, under the second part of the 93+2 program. In the area of export controls, multilateral regimes, including the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Missile Technology Control Regime, have added several new members and refined their rules... and China has strengthened its non-proliferation commitments by pledging not to assist unsafeguarded nuclear installations. In addition, there have been no new stories of significant leaks of nuclear materials from Russia or the other Soviet successor states, and U.S. cooperative programs to enhance security over such materials have gained considerable momentum. Reinforcing the norm of non-proliferation, the two nuclear superpowers continue to dismantle nuclear weapons and strategic missiles, and there are reasonable prospects for further reductions under the pending START II treaty and an anticipated START III accord. Looking at the threshold states... Pakistan is continuing its freeze on the production of fissile material, although Israel and India are apparently adding to their plutonium stockpiles. The North Korean nuclear weapons effort appears to remain frozen, as the result of the October 1994 Agreed Framework understanding with the United States. Finally, Iran's nuclear weapons program, according to recent testimony by U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency Director John Holum, has not progressed in the past two years, while Iraq's nuclear activities are being suppressed by UNSCOM, and Libya's nuclear program appears to be languishing.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Africa, Russia, United States, Iran
  • Author: Anna J. Schwartz, Stanley Fischer, Jerry L. Jordan, Leland B. Yeager, Francisco Gil-Diaz, Roberto Salinas-Leon, A. James Meigs, Lawrence Kudlow, William A. Niskanen, Michael Prowse, Bert Ely
  • Publication Date: 10-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: On Tuesday, October 15, 1997 the Cato Institute continued its 15 year tradition of exploring pressing and timely issues in international fiscal policy with its meeting Money and Capital Flows in a Global Economy. Speakers including Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan; First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Stanley Fisher; and the Bank of Mexico's Vice Governor, Francisco Gil-Díaz, convened to sort through the pressing issues relevant to global capital flows that face the world economy.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: South America, Latin America, North America, Mexico, Nagasaki
38835. Mixed Signals
  • Author: Peter A. Hall, Robert J. Franzese Jr.
  • Publication Date: 09-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: Plans for European Monetary Union are based on the conventional postulate that increasing the independence of the central bank can reduce inflation without any real economic effects. However, the theoretical and empirical bases for this claim rest on models of the economy that make unrealistic information assumptions and omit institutional variables other than the central bank. When the signaling problems between the central bank or other actors in the political economy are considered, we find that the character of wage bargaining conditions the impact of central bank independence by rendering the signals between the bank and the bargainers more or less effective. Greater independence can reduce inflation without major employment effects where bargaining is coordinated, but it brings higher levels of unemployment where bargaining is uncoordinated. Thus, currency unions like the EMU may require higher levels of unemployment to control inflation than their proponents envisage; they will have costs as well as benefits, costs which will be distributed unevenly among and within the member nations based on the changes induced in the status of the bank and of wage coordination.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Jeffrey Johnson
  • Publication Date: 05-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: This paper discusses academic-industrial relations in German chemical research from 1905 to the eve of World War II, considering four periods: the decade before World War I, the years of total war and postwar crisis (1916-1923), the renewed crisis (1929-1933), and finally the Nazi years. These periods saw, respectively, the creation of academic-style research laboratories with substantial industrial support; the emergence of industrially-funded organizations to subsidize chemical literature and educational institutions (as well as research); reductions in support for these organizations and in subsidies for contracted academic collaborators, but the expansion of postdoctoral fellowships funded by I.G. Farben; and finally the politicization and militarization of the academic-industrial symbiosis under National Socialism.
  • Topic: Industrial Policy, International Political Economy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Europe, Germany
  • Author: Rainer Karlsch
  • Publication Date: 03-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: Between the two World Wars, central Germany (the later GDR) was a preferred region for the foundation of new chemical plants. But after World War II, Soviet occupying troops dismantled 116 chemical plants in the Soviet Zone of Occupation. After the division of Germany became apparent, the Soviet Zone began a policy of self-sufficiency, but the chemical industry of the GDR dropped behind the West German chemical industry in the first postwar decade. After the "Sputnik shock" in 1957 and Khruschev's proclamation of an "economic race," the chemical industry in the Eastern Bloc moved into the center of the economic policy. In November 1958, the GDR enacted, as did the Soviet Union, a special chemical program. The main points of the program were the doubling of the chemical production within seven years, and an even greater increase in production of synthetic fibers and plastic. But the program failed. Decisive for the backsliding of the GDR's chemical industry was the uncoupling from the international division of labor and the integration into the East European economic zone. The GDR's Chemical Industry could find no real equivalent partner in Eastern Europe, and cooperation with the West was restricted for political reasons. The "opting for oil" of the Ulbricht-era became in the Honecker-era a policy of moving "back to coal." The maintaining of carbide chemistry finally ended in an energy crisis and an ecological fiasco.
  • Topic: Cold War, Industrial Policy, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Europe, Germany
  • Author: Akira Kudo
  • Publication Date: 03-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: This paper analyzes the Japan strategy of I.G. Farben in the inter-war period. It deals with export strategy as well as the licensing of technologies. It concludes that I.G. Farben suffered from a variety of difficulties in its Japan business, especially in the area of direct investment, and that, in spite of this, it succeeded in developing active business operations in Japan, especially in its exports of dyestuffs and nitrogenous fertilizer and in its licensing of the Haber-Bosch process for synthetic ammonia.
  • Topic: Industrial Policy, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Japan, Europe, Israel, East Asia
  • Author: Ashish Arora, Alfonso Gambardella
  • Publication Date: 03-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: This paper analyzes the evolution of the structure of the chemical industry in the US, Europe, and Japan. Differences in institutions, historical conditions, and resource endowments across the three regions reinforce differences in initial conditions. However, technological innovation, the internationalization of the industry, and the development and operation of markets, especially markets for technology, capital, raw materials, and corporate control, are powerful forces encouraging convergence. Convergence is less marked at the level of the firm than at the level of the industry, and is more marked between the industries of Western Europe and the United States.
  • Topic: Globalization, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Europe
  • Author: Mark Hallenberg, Jürgen. von Hagen
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: Large government budget deficits are a concern in most industrialized countries. Two literatures in political economy argue that differences in political institutions explain much of the variation in the success of counties in their efforts to run small deficits. One group of authors considers how differences among electoral systems affect the size of budget deficits, while the second group concentrates on the governmental institutions which structure the formation of the yearly budget. Among the "electoral institutionalists", a consensus is beginning to emerge which treats proportional representation systems as a cause of high levels of public debt. In contrast, "fiscal institutionalists" argue that the presence of certain institutions in the decision-making process at the cabinet level, such as a strong finance minister or negotiated spending targets, lead to smaller deficits than in cases where such institutions are missing. We indicate that these two literatures complement one another. Electoral institutions matter because they restrict the type of budgetary institution at the governmental phase which a state has at its disposal. A strong finance minister is feasible in states where one-party governments are the norm, and such states usually have plurality electoral systems, while negotiated targets provide an alternative in multi-party governments. In multi-party governments, which are common in states with proportional representation, the coalition members are not willing to delegate to one actor the ability to monitor and punish the others for "defections" on the budget. The empirical section of the paper indicates a strong relationship between one-party governments and strong finance minister solutions within the European Union states on the one hand and multi-party or minority governments and targets on the other. Pooled time series regression results also support our contention that it is the presence or absence of one of these budgetary institutions, rather than the plurality/proportional representation dishotomy, which has the greatest impact on debt levels.
  • Topic: International Organization, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Maurice Obstfeld
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: This paper studies the constraints placed by the Maastricht Treaty on the rates at which member currencies will exchange against the Euro at the start of stage 3 of economic and monetary union (EMU). The paper shows that the stage 3 bilateral conversion factors for EMU member currencies must correspond to closing market exchange rates as of December 31, 1998; furthermore, currency conversion rates into the Euro cannot be determined until that date. Moreover, official announcements about intended conversion factors will carry no credibility with markets, as market rates must be chosen over any prennounced rates according to the Treaty. Unless there is heavy official intervention in the runup to stage 3, EMU members' bilateral market rates will exhibit excessive volatility and may induce beggar-thy-neighbor policy behavior. On the other, hand, exchange-rate targeting may open the door to speculative currency crises. The only feasible solution appears a widely-publicized institutional reform to subjugate national central banks' policies entirely to the goal of intra-EMU exchange stability in the final months of stage 2.
  • Topic: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Lars Tragardh
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: According to Ole Wæver, a leading student of the travails of the "New Europe," Western Europe is probably the part of the world that currently exhibits "the most advanced case of border fluidity and transgression of sovereignty." So dramatic are the processes underway that they have led otherwise prudent political scientists to turn to the trendy idiom of "postmodernity," meaning in the context of IR theory first and foremost "post-sovereignty." Thus John Ruggie has argued that what he sees as "the unbundling of territoriality" - i.e. the incipient decoupling of sovereignty and (nation)state - constitutes "nothing less than the emergence of the first truly postmodern international form." Similarly, Saskia Sassen notes that in the process of globalization the notion of a "national economy" has come to be replaced with that of a "global economy." As a consequence, she argues that while sovereignty and territory very much "remain key features of the international system," they have been "reconstituted and partly displaced onto other institutional areas outside the state." Thus, she concludes, "sovereignty has been decentered and territory partly de-nationalized."
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Publication Date: 12-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Achieving the ambitious goals of the General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina (DPA) -- forging a unified state out of the shaky Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and resistant and unstable Republika Srpska -- is a complex and difficult undertaking which has not been made easier by the quest for a so-called “exit strategy”. Ultimately, success will be judged by the durability of the peace. But as the pre-announced departure date for the NATO-led Stabilisation Force (SFOR) approaches, it is clear that a self-sustaining peace is not yet in sight.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe
  • Publication Date: 12-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Prospects for lasting peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina have improved in recent months as a result of a clear shift in approach towards implementation of the peace plan on the part of the international community. The new-found resolve has been characterised, in particular, by a snatch operation in Prijedor in July in which one indicted war criminal was captured and another killed, and the seizure by the NATO-led Stabilisation Force (SFOR) of four transmission towers used by Bosnian Serb television's (SRT) Pale studio which had hitherto been used to broadcast ethnic hatred and obstruct implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA).
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Shepard Forman, Rita Parhad
  • Publication Date: 09-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center on International Cooperation
  • Abstract: This paper was prepared as background for the meeting on "Resources for Humanitarian Assistance," which was held on September 11-12, 1997 at the Pocantico Conference Center in New York. It reflects the aggregate set of responses of the primary intergovernmental and non-governmental humanitarian service providers to an inquiry regarding their financial, managerial, and staffing concerns, as well as discussions with them and with other experts in the field. Without denying the importance of longer term development assistance and its interconnectedness with humanitarian relief, this paper's focus has intentionally been limited to humanitarian assistance in complex emergencies, with the recognition that effective emergency aid must be understood within the broader humanitarian framework. The paper briefly analyzes the overall financial situation facing the humanitarian enterprise; examines the ways in which patterns of funding, as well as gross amounts, affect the delivery of assistance; and identifies several options which could strengthen the capacity and performance of the humanitarian system, including investment in preparedness measures and in staff recruitment and training.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: New York
  • Author: Cesare P. R. Romano
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center on International Cooperation
  • Abstract: The issue of the financing of international justice has been generally neglected by international research. Legal scholars have rarely ventured beyond generic calls for the widening of the jurisdiction of international courts or for the creation of new courts. The financing of international justice has usually been conceived as an essentially political and technical issue and, therefore, as outside of the scope of legal discourse. Economists, on their side, have never taken a hard look at the way international law works, aside from decisions that effect the functioning of the international economic system per se. It is not surprising, therefore, that there does not exist any serious study on how much international rule of law costs, how and if efficiency could be enhanced, and where and if additional resources could be tapped to enhance the functioning of the courts themselves and allow a greater use of existing means. Hopefully, the data presented in this paper, together with some general observations proposed in the conclusions, will elicit constructive criticism and new thoughts on these much neglected aspects of this particular area of international cooperation.
  • Topic: International Law, International Organization, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Stephen S. Cohen, Michael Borrus
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
  • Abstract: At the October 29, 1997, summit meeting between President Jiang Zemin of the People's Republic of China ("China") and President Bill Clinton of the United States, President Jiang announced his government's commitment to join the Information Technology Agreement ("ITA") and thereby eliminate China's tariffs on semiconductors, computers and other information technology products. President Jiang also agreed that, in the context of the negotiations concerning China's accession to the World Trade Organization ("WTO"), China would make further substantial tariff reductions.
  • Topic: Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia
  • Author: Timothy J. Sturgeon
  • Publication Date: 08-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
  • Abstract: This paper explores the implications of the following hypothesis: that a significant share of American firms are adapting to volatile and intensely competitive market conditions by "outsourcing" manufacturing functions to specialized merchant suppliers. At the same time, "brand-name" firms have reasserted control over product definition, design, and marketing functions, which are largely being kept in-house despite the spate of high-profile "strategic alliances" formed in the 1990s.
  • Topic: Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Dieter Ernst
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
  • Abstract: Far-reaching changes are currently occurring in the organization and location of the production of industrial goods and services, changes which are bound to have important implications for the welfare, the development potential, and the competitive position of different countries and regions. As competition cuts across national and sectoral boundaries and becomes increasingly global, firms everywhere are forced to shift from exports to international production. Today, dominance in a domestic market—even one as large as the U.S.—is no longer enough. Mutual raiding of established customer and supply bases has become an established business practice, with the result that firms are now forced to compete simultaneously in all major markets, notably in Europe, North America and Asia.
  • Topic: Globalization, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe, Asia, North America
  • Author: Dieter Ernst
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
  • Abstract: The "China fever" that has raged through the Japanese industry over the last few years, has drastically changed the locational patterns of Japanese investment within East Asia. The share of China in the investment of Japanese electronics firms abroad has increased by leaps and bounds: from the measly 0.6% of 1990 ( the year after the Tianmen massacre), it has now reached almost 7%, catching up fast with the 7.7% share of ASEAN.
  • Topic: Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Vikram K. Chand
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: Until recently, the monitoring of elections in a sovereign country by outside actors was extremely rare. The United Nations (UN) had significant experience in conducting plebiscites and elections in dependent territories but did not monitor an election in a formally independent country until 1989, when it reluctantly became involved in the Nicaraguan electoral process. At the regional level, the Organization of American States (OAS) occasionally sent small delegations to witness elections in member states, but these missions were too brief to permit any real observation of the processes, and failed to criticise fraud. Since the 1980s election-monitoring has become increasingly common in transitional elections from authoritarian to democratic rule. Non-governmental organisations (NGOs), domestic and international, were the first to become involved in election-monitoring in the 1980s followed by international and regional organisations like the UN, the OAS, and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in the 1990s. Election-monitors played a crucial role in transitional elections held in the Philippines (1986), Chile (1989), Panama (1989), Nicaragua (1990) and Haiti (1990). In addition, elections began to form a crucial element of UN 'peace-building' strategies in countries torn apart by civil strife such as Namibia (1989), Cambodia (1993) and El Salvador (1994). By the middle of the 1990s, international election-monitoring had thus become widely accepted, and fairly universal standards established for defining the term 'free and fair' elections.
  • Topic: International Relations, Democratization, Non-Governmental Organization, Sovereignty, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Europe, Philippines, Cambodia, Nicaragua, Chile, Namibia
  • Author: Geoffrey E. Forden
  • Publication Date: 09-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Security and Cooperation
  • Abstract: Future regional conflicts will almost certainly involve politically less stable nations or other regional actors using theater ballistic missiles armed with either nuclear, biological, or chemical warheads. The United States Air Force is attempting to deal with this threat by developing the Airborne Laser (ABL) with the goal of shooting down missiles while they are still under power and before they can release submunitions possibly containing highly toxic biological agents. This paper presents the results of an analysis of this system. It is based solely on information found in the open literature and using the basic physics and engineering involved in transmitting intense laser beams through the atmosphere. The ABL's potential capabilities and possible theaters of operation are discussed at a non-technical level.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Xiangli Sun
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Security and Cooperation
  • Abstract: This paper focuses on the impact of a comprehensive test ban on China's nuclear program and security policy. After a general review of China's nuclear doctrine and development, the study analyzes the relationship between China's nuclear strategy and its desire for testing, and explores the reasons China decided to join the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. By comparing the maturity of the nuclear programs of the nuclear states and the degree of their preparations for a cessation of nuclear tests, this paper concludes that a comprehensive test ban would place greater constraints on China's nuclear program than on those of the others. Efforts such as a deeper reduction of the nuclear arsenals of the principal nuclear powers, a no-first-use commitment by all nuclear states, and the adherence to the ABM treaty by its signatories would be critical to reducing China's concerns. The progress of international arms control negotiations in the above directions would further encourage China to make even greater contributions in the field of global arms control in the post–comprehensive test ban era.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Stephen J. Lukasik
  • Publication Date: 05-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Security and Cooperation
  • Abstract: The discussion begins with a conceptual framework for addressing the protection of infrastructure systems subject to attacks on their information subsystems. This includes treating the types of infrastructure systems, possible strategies for their protection, and the nature and scale of the attack. Three components of a protection strategy are identified: preventing attacks, limiting the damage in an attack, and ensuring rapid reconstitution of the target system following an attack. The paper concludes with a discussion of public and private responsibilities for infrastructure protection and the identification of a number of areas where public initiatives might be effective. These are ordered roughly in terms of the cost and difficulty of implementation. In addressing the subject, the analysis is from the perspective of minimizing government intervention in privately owned infrastructure systems.
  • Topic: Government, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Ashley Tellis, Michael Nacht, Rakesh Sood, Frank N. von Hippel, Morton H. Halperin, Victoria L. Farmer, Robert Joseph, Jaswant Singh, K.K. Nayyar, C. Raja Mohan, P.K. Iyengar, Ronald F. II Lehman, V.S. Arunachalam, Mark T. Fitzpatrick
  • Publication Date: 05-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for the Advanced Study of India
  • Abstract: Realization of the long term objective of achieving 'nuclear zero,' with India and the United States working towards this shared goal, is the main thrust of the paper. It examines the approaches taken by the two countries working together in achieving 'nuclear zero' in the post-Cold War world.
  • Topic: Arms Control and Proliferation, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States, South Asia, India, Asia
  • Author: Imtiaz Hussain
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: Conventionally viewing the state as a black box and focusing almost exclusively on its outward orientation, the Westphalia paradigm, I argue, has outlived its purpose, and may even be misleading when applied to the more porous and democratic state today. Rather than measure state viability in terms of power balances abroad, three constituent elements extracted from the Westphalia literature are used to evaluate internal state viability instead: the relationship between the nation and the state, the capacities of the state itself, and the state within a collectivity. Whereas the first is operationalized in terms of Buzan's four-fold typology, the second focuses on how two forms of internal divisions have been resolved—between city and country interests over policy-making, and between various classes in society through governmental income redistribution programs—while the third evaluates the propensity of the state to delegate loyalties to any supranational entity in the 1990s. Over 160 sovereign countries are pooled into 5 geographical regions for the analysis. The results strengthen the above argument, and generally portray the exceptionalism of West Europe: It is the global hub of established national states, even though there are more state nations worldwide whose historical emergence accented internal development over external security considerations; viable states, measured in terms of established democracies, urban preponderance over policy making, and welfare redistribution; and transferring loyalties beyond the state.
  • Topic: International Relations, Democratization, Development, Government
  • Political Geography: Europe, Maryland, Westphalia
  • Author: Miquel Ángel Valverde
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: This paper examines the theoretical discussion on interdependence, and its use for analyzing US-Mexican economic relations. It combines interdependence's premises with other perspectives on the position of North American economies in the global marketplace, arguing that NAFTA is an institutional response to these developments.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, North America, Mexico
  • Author: Miquel Ángel Valverde
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: In June 1990, President George Bush and Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari announced their intention to begin negotiating a free trade agreement. Canada joined the negotiations the following August. The proposed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) provoked an intense lobbying campaign in the US Congress, in what became a major political battle for its congressional approval. Some economic interests would win, others would lose with NAFTA. Congress members were worried about the loss of American low-skilled jobs and environmental issues. Regional interests were voiced loudly in the House of Representatives. A loose coalition of interest groups, including the AFL-CIO, public interest groups, and environmental organizations, coordinated opposition to the agreement. On the pro-NAFTA side was an ad hoc group of corporations, labeled USA-NAFTA, which included the National Association of Manufacturers and the US Chamber of Commerce. The Mexican government mounted an extensive lobbying campaign in favor of the trade pact. After intense congressional lobbying, President Bush obtained fast-track negotiating authority for NAFTA. Negotiations concluded in August 1992, and the following December, Presidents Bush and Salinas, as well as Canada's Prime Minister Mulroney, signed the pact, Presidential candidate Bill Clinton, under intense pressure from key constituencies of the Democratic Party, supported NAFTA "in principle," but only if complementary agreements on labor and environmental issues were included. Once in the office, Clinton negotiated these "side agreements" with Mexico and Canada, but still, strong opposition to NAFTA continued. In order to win congressional votes needed for the pact's approval, President Clinton engaged in a series of political compromises or "side-payments" with legislators, being able to form a congressional bipartisan coalition that allowed NAFTA passage.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Canada, North America, Mexico
  • Author: Mark Aspinwall, Imtiaz Hussain
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: How autonomous is a state in today's highly interdependent international economy to pursue policies that diverge widely from the international norm? does the degree of autonomy vary for different domestic sectors? We adapt and apply Benjamin Cohen's unholy trinity model (1993), to a comparative assessment of how France responded to globalization over agriculture and shipping, focusing on three dimensions—investment, transaction costs, and government policy responses. Although France is reputed to possess a strong state machinery (Katzenstein, 1987; Wilson, 1987; Skocpol, 1985), our analysis raises qualifications. On the one hand, regardless of government policy intentions, we find irreversible forms of disinvestments in both sectors, though different in nature—geographic for shipping, and functional for agriculture; on the other, we also find continued dependence upon the state–for internal and endogenous, as well as external and exogenous, factors influence policy-making, the nature of these factors are different for the two sectors. We conclude by drawing implications of our findings for state-society relations and European integrations.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Globalization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, France
  • Author: Sofía Gallardo
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: The concern for the quality of the environment reached significant proportions in the 1960's and 1970's throughout North America and Europe as other new social movements were emerging. Unlike some of the others, environmentalism has endured as a vital and major social phenomenon, one that has reoriented human perceptions, attitudes, and behavior.
  • Topic: Environment, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, Germany, North America
  • Author: Imtiaz Hussain
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: What factors made the attainment of a regional trading bloc a priority at the Summit of the Americas? Why was it so inclusive a gathering? What are the prospects and problems of an American Free Trade Association? How can regionalism in this part of the world be explained theoretically?
  • Topic: Development, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: America, North America
  • Author: Miguel Angel Valverde
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: The objective of this paper is to discuss some concepts and review relevant literature on interest groups in the United States, in order to provide a broad guide to the study of the topic. It aims to explore the main questions raised by their presence in the political arena as well as suggest some themes for future research.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Imtiaz Hussain
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: Why do policy outcomes invariably fall short of expectations? Almost all studies of this puzzling topic over the last generation have revolved around a study of the limits of rational behavior. Although this literature is extraordinarily enriching, as society becomes more complex, the gap between policy intentions and outcomes seems to be widening, and constrained rational behavior appears to be accounting for increasingly less of that gap. Three incompatible policy areas today are environmentalism, free trade, and regionalism. This investigation undertakes a comparative analysis of the principles and key dimensions of those three policy areas, then transforms Benjamin Cohen's unholy monetary trinity into an unholy developmental trinity to offer a theoretical framework within which this incompatible policy-mix may be explained.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Imtiaz Hussain
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: Asking "How have trade disputes over agriculture been settled in North America?", this study examines 11 appeals made to binational panels established under Chapter 19 of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement of 1989. By disaggregating the process of dispute settlement into complaints, rulings, country responses, and overall settlement, it reassesses an old debate (whether dispute outcomes are influenced by collective rules or the pursuit of self-help) and sheds new light. Whereas extant studies make the argument, through a study of appeals to G.A.T.T., that collective rules temper the blind pursuit of self-help, this study makes the argument that self-help is equally important an explanation. Whereas the former focus on outcomes which are non-binding, this study focuses on outcomes which are binding. Implications are drawn, at a time when domestic interests, nationalistic sentiments, and supranational pursuits compete to influence policy outcomes at all levels, for agriculture, integration in North America, and dispute settlement at the multilateral level.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Canada, North America
  • Author: Dr. Renata Dwan, Dr. Andrew Cottey
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: In 1997-98 the Institute for EastWest Studies (IEWS) is running two projects on means for strengthening cooperation in Europe. The 'Strategy Group for Strengthening Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe' is a series of meetings funded by the European Union's PHARE/TACIS Democracy Programme. Ten meetings and workshops will examine the diverse range of security problems facing the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and possible cooperative solutions to these problems. The Strategy Group brings together representatives of the Central and Eastern European Associates of the European Union and Ukraine (and Western states and neighbouring countries where appropriate). Participants in Strategy Group conferences and workshops come from diverse backgrounds, including (but not limited to) governmental representatives, politicians, business people, academics and non-governmental representatives. IEWS is joined in organizing this Strategy Group series by the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA).
  • Topic: Security, Development, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Maryland
  • Author: Eugene Spiro
  • Publication Date: 10-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: At the conference opening, György Surányi, President of the National Bank of Hungary, outlined Hungary's successful efforts to rejuvenate economic activity with the prospect of European Union membership approaching . Following the successful implementation of economic policies aimed at establishing a market economy, for the first time in 25 years Hungary is gradually moving towards sustainable economic growth. Real GDP gains of almost 4 percent per annum are evident without accompanying deterioration of the external accounts or increases in inflation.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Fritz W. Scharpf
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
  • Abstract: During the golden years from the 1950s to the mid-1970s, the industrial nations of Western Europe had the chance to develop specifically national versions of the capitalist welfare state - and their choices were in fact remarkably different (Esping-Andersen 1990). In spite of the considerable differences between the "Social-Democratic", "Corporatist" or "Liberal" versions, however, all were remarkably successful in maintaining full employment and promoting economic growth, while also controlling, in different ways and to different degrees, the destructive tendencies of unfettered capitalism in the interest of specific social, cultural, and/or ecological values (Scharpf 1991a; Merkel 1993). It was not fully realized at the time, however, how much the success of market-correcting policies did in fact depend on the capacity of the territorial state to control its economic boundaries. Once this capacity is lost, countries are forced into a competition for locational advantage which has all the characteristics of a Prisoner's Dilemma game (Sinn 1994). It reduces the freedom of national governments and unions to raise the regulatory and wage costs of national firms above the level prevailing in competing locations. Moreover, and if nothing else changes, the "competition of regulatory systems" that is generally welcomed by neoliberal economists (Streit/Mussler 1995) and politicians may well turn into a downward spiral of competitive deregulation and tax cuts in which all competing countries will find themselves reduced to a level of protection that is in fact lower than that preferred by any of them.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Organization, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Fritz W. Scharpf
  • Publication Date: 07-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
  • Abstract: Estimates of the comparative health of the North American and Western European economies and societies have had their fashion cycles - from Servain-Schreiber's warnings that Europe was falling behind, rather than catching up with, American technological leadership in the 1960s, to European exasperation over American trade and budget deficits in the 1970s, to anxieties over Eurosclerosis in the early 1980s and over the American loss of international competitiveness in the late 1980s. Presently, by all accounts, the sick man is again Europe, with higher unemployment and much lower rates of job creation over the last two decades or so. The main problem is a rising level of long-term unemployment that mainly affects unskilled workers and, in most countries, young job seekers with low levels of schooling.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: America, Europe, North America, Western Europe
  • Author: David Held
  • Publication Date: 05-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
  • Abstract: One of the most conspicuous features of politics at the turn of the millennium is the emergence of issues which transcend national frontiers. Processes of economic internationalization, the problem of the environment and the emergence of regional and global networks of communication are increasingly matters of concern for the international community as a whole. The nature and limits of national democracies have to be reconsidered in relation to processes of social and economic globalization; that is, in relation to shifts in the transcontinental or interregional scale of human social organization and of the exercise of social power. This paper seeks to explore these changing circumstances and to examine, albeit tentatively, their implications for democratic theory.
  • Topic: Democratization, Globalization, Politics
  • Author: Philipp Genschel, Thomas Plumper
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
  • Abstract: Recent research has shown that regulatory competition does not necessarily lead to downward pressures on regulation, but may at times also push the level of regulation upwards. Extending David Vogel's "California effect" argument, this paper shows that such upward pressure may not only result directly from the dynamics of the competitive process but also from international cooperation. Evidence from two case studies on international capital market regulation is used to identify the conditions under which cooperation in the shadow of regulatory competition is likely to succeed or fail. The successful multilateral standardisation of banking capital requirements in the BIS is compared to failed attempts to harmonise interest taxation across EC member states.
  • Topic: Government, International Cooperation, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: California
  • Author: Walt Patterson
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: Like the international dimension of electricity discussed in Working Paper 1, the liberal dimension of electricity has emerged only recently, at least as a recognized concept. However, whereas the international dimension is genuinely new, the dimension now characterized as 'liberal' needs closer examination. The language of policy discourse is not always consistent. Until the 1990s, policy analysts habitually referred to the electricity industry as 'conservative', in the sense that it was resistant to change and deeply wary of risk. However, those who first acted to 'liberalize' electricity were themselves 'conservative', in conventional political terms, notably the governments of Chile and the UK in the 1980s. That apparent irony in itself suggests that 'liberalizing' electricity is a more subtle and complex process than the term itself might indicate.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Environment, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Chile
  • Author: Bjorn Møller
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The paper features a general introduction to the concept of non-offensive defence (NOD) with a special emphasis on the offence/defence distinction and criteria of 'defensive sufficiency'. It is concluded with an assessment of the the post-Cold War relevance of NOD for various regions around the world.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Bjørn Moller
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The author argues that NATO membership is worth much less than assumed by the potential new members, hence that it should also cost less than demanded by NATO. Even though an enlargement of NATO is thus not particularly desirable, it is probably going to happen rather soon. Unless accompanied by various measures to ensure Russia of NATO's peaceful intentions, however, this enlargement will be viewed as a hostile move by Moscow, especially by the 'Eurasian' groupings. Eventually, Russia may take reciprocal steps that would negate whatever immediate security gains could be achieved through NATO membership. It is thus in the best interest of both present and future members of NATO to 'sweeten the pill' by taking Russian security concerns into account. A number of suggestions are made to this effect.
  • Topic: Security, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia, Moscow
  • Author: Pawel Wieczorek, Katarzyna Zukrowska
  • Publication Date: 03-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The public opinion polls show that decisive majority of Poles support Polish entrance to the NATO (80%) and the European Union (66%). This support derives mainly - as can be supposed - from association of the membership in the above mentioned institutions with priviliges linked with this status, what silently is accompanied by rather low financial consequences of integration. Awareness of real financial burdens tied up with integration can be considered as one of the basic arguments in support of preparing a reliable balance of widely understood benefits and commitments which are connected with the Polish membership in NATO and the EU.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe
  • Author: Bjorn Møller
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The 1991 Gulf War was accompanied by talk of a 'New World Order', not least in the USA. The implied promise was one of a greater respect for international law, a strengthening of the United Nations and a determined effort for arms control and disarmament, both globally and regionally. The paper evaluates developments since then, with a special focus on the accomplishments in the military sphere. In particular, it assesses the contribution of the United States to the creation of this new world (military) order. In conclusion, the US is found to be both part of the problem, because of its excessive military spending and penchant for unilateralism, and an indispensable part of the solution.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Law, United Nations
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Grzegorz Ekiert, Jan Kubik
  • Publication Date: 10-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
  • Abstract: The paper argues that a robust and assertive civil society has emerged in post-communist Poland during the first few years following the fall of state socialism. Civil society is defined as a specific social space and a set of specific social organizations. The most important factors shaping the character of this renewed civil society are the patterns of its institutionalization after 1989, the predominance of organizations inherited from the old regime, and the marginality of anti-systemic groups. The institutional patterns are shaped by the sectoral composition of the new civil society, the relationships among its various organizations, and by these organizations' links to such collective actors/institutions as political parties and state agencies. These patterns influence the quality of political participation and democratic performance.
  • Topic: Democratization, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Jonathan Kirshner
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Cornell University Peace Studies Program
  • Abstract: In contemporary International Relations theory, there exists a sharp distinction between international political economy and security studies. This is largely a false distinction, however, a product of peculiar circumstances associated with the cold war, and one which is becoming increasingly anachronistic in the post-cold war era. In order to understand international relations in this era, a re-integration of the discipline is necessary.
  • Topic: Security, Cold War, Globalization, Political Economy
  • Author: Norrin Ripsman
  • Publication Date: 07-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics, University of Pennsylvania
  • Abstract: Unlike the comparative political economy literature, the literature on foreign security policy treats democracies as a coherent category of states, focusing on their commonalities rather than their differences. Both classical and contemporary theorists of foreign security policy have emphasized that all democratic states--states that are characterized by popular sovereignty, where the ultimate source of authority resides within the people as a whole -- share certain constitutional, procedural and normative features which affect the nature and content of their foreign security policies in similar ways. Using this logic, traditional Realists have argued that public involvement in the policy process makes democracies slow to react to international threats, reluctant to spend on defense, incapable of secrecy and war-averse; consequently, they conclude that democracies are at a disadvantage in international politics, where balance-of-power policies are necessary. Liberals, on the other hand, argue that democracies enjoy certain advantages at international bargaining, devote more aggregate resources to implementing their foreign and security policies, and are less likely than non-democratic states to have their policies subverted to serve the particular interests of their leaders, private interest groups or foreign countries. Moreover, as democratic peace theorists have recently argued, shared political norms and common political procedures prevent democracies from waging war against other democracies.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom, Europe, France
  • Author: Clark Winton Reynolds
  • Publication Date: 08-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The process of regional integration is part of the reshaping of the international economic order at the end of the 20th century. Much if it is impelled by raw market forces, or what one may term 'silent integration.' In this process the increasingly liberalized movement of goods and services, factors of production (capital, technology, and labor through migration and as embodied in trade in goods and services), and tastes offers new prospects and challenges. There are opportunities for major increases in income and wealth for the most intrepid, skilled, mobile, and aggressive participants in the process. There are threats of lost income, power, prestige, values, and institutions for those left behind. There is a need to go behind the impulse of market forces, taking advantage of their dynamic but finding ways to manage interdependence so as to best reconcile differences among social groups, institutions, and values to ensure that the process of liberalized exchange produces gains that are equitable, stable, and sustainable.
  • Topic: Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Israel, East Asia, South America, Latin America
  • Author: Erika Maza Valenzuela
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper analyzes women's organizations in the anticlerical-and middle- to upper-class-segment of Chilean society from the late nineteenth century to 1930. It focuses on their leaders' positions regarding women's rights, especially the suffrage. The feminist organizations within the anticlerical segment developed later than the Catholic ones and they had less contact with women in the popular sectors. These organizations had varying degrees of anticlericalism. Some of their members were free thinkers, a few were Protestant, and many of them were Catholics who were critical of the clergy's influence in society and politics. This paper shows that, during the period studied here, the anticlerical leaders, both men and women, were opposed to granting women full suffrage rights. They argued that, before voting, women should be given their civil rights and access to secular education under state auspices. However, even after the Civil Code had been partially modified and the number of women with secular secondary education had become roughly equal to that of men in the mid 1920s, anticlerical leaders still only supported the vote for women in municipal elections. By enfranchising women only for local elections, anticlerical leaders-Liberals and Radicals-sought to 'educate' women politically while preventing them from tipping the balance of forces benefiting the Conservative Party in legislative and presidential elections. Catholic-Conservatives had been more inclusive of women in education, social life, and politics since the mid-nineteenth century, and for this reason they had a greater capacity to appeal for women's votes.
  • Topic: Gender Issues, Government
  • Political Geography: Latin America
  • Author: Brian L. Job, Frank Langdon
  • Publication Date: 10-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper deals with the history, formation, and objectives of APEC. It describes the tensions between the Anglo-Saxon and the East Asian APEC members and the clashes of interests between the large and small and developed and less developed nations, which show how precarious the formation of APEC was. Within the short term APEC does not seem destined to become an overarching regional, political, security, and economic institution. Indeed, certain forces within the region, such as increased arms acquisitions in some states, friction arising over trade disputes, protectionism, and investment flows, and tension between China and Taiwan, could hinder the objectives of the organization. It remains possible that the very process of finding common ground through APEC may contribute more to fostering community and to ensuring security in the region than the proposals actually agreed upon by all member nations.
  • Topic: Economics, International Organization
  • Political Geography: China, Europe
  • Author: Yoji Akashi
  • Publication Date: 08-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper presents the history of APEC in terms of the different goals and fears of the participants and their perceptions of each others' agendas. The author contrasts the Western approach, as exemplified by the US push to institutionalize APEC and introduce binding, formal agreements, with the 'Asian way,' which emphasizes consensus, consultation, and flexibility. By reaching a better understanding of why various key players acted as they did in the past, the author seeks to provide a guide to what should and should not be expected regarding the breadth, specificity, and enforcement mechanisms of future regionwide trade agreements in the Pacific Rim. Ministers of trade and foreign affairs from twelve nations of the Pacific Rim gathered in Canberra in November 1989 to discuss trade liberalization and closer regional cooperation in such specific areas as investment, technology transfer, and manpower training and to plan a new organization that they hoped would shape the future of the world's most dynamic economic region, embracing 1.9 billion people whose combined economies accounted for 24% of world output.
  • Topic: Security, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: East Asia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Nile Gardiner
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Studies at Yale University
  • Abstract: This paper examines recent debates in Britain surrounding the memory of the Second World War. Part one is an examination of the controversy sparked by the publication in 1993 of John Charmley's Churchill: The End of Glory, and Alan Clark's article in The Times, “A Reputation Ripe for Revision?”
  • Topic: Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: Britain, United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Martin Gargiulo, Mario Benassi
  • Publication Date: 09-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
  • Abstract: Research on social capital has stressed the advantages that networks can bring to managers and other economic actors. The enthusiasm with this "bright side" of social capital, however, neglects the fact that social bonds may at times have detrimental effects for a manager. This paper tries to correct the optimistic bias by looking at the "dark side" of social capital. Continuing benefits from social capital require that managers can adapt the composition of this social capital to the shifting demands of their task environment. This often implies the ability to create new ties while lessening the salience of some of the old bonds--if not severing them altogether. Available evidence, however, suggests that this ability may be encumbered by the same relationships purportedly responsible for the prior success of the manager. When and how this may happen is the central question we address in this paper. We argue that strong ties to cohesive contacts limit the manager's ability keep control on the composition of his network and jeopardize his adaptability to changing task environments. We test our ideas with data on managers operating in a special unit of a European high-technology firm.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Joshua Lederberg, Margaret Hamburg, Stephen Morse, Philip R. Reilly, Timothy Wirth
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: New York Academy of Sciences
  • Abstract: A crisis usually eliminates the time required to focus on the long-term: The urgent tends to drive out the important. Over the past several years, public policy perspectives on health care have often suffered from such myopia. In the United States, and in many other countries around the world, spiraling costs and shrinking budgets have focused health policy attention on perceived near-term crises over the allocation of (often public) resources. Because public resource allocation involves tax dollars, and because voters feel personally affected by changes in health services, the controversy enters the political arena. Moreover, politics itself is a very near-term business, with the ballot box and polling data providing its primary compass. In turn, this has added to the tendency to think of health care challenges in terms of immediate needs and to focus on the moment rather than on the consequences of today's changes in tomorrow's complex patterns.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Sidney Weintraub
  • Publication Date: 07-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: On December 20, 1994, Mexican financial and monetary authorities raised the band within which the peso was permitted to fluctuate by 15 percent. They expected a short-lived shock, some economic adjustment, and then back to business as usual with a modestly devalued peso. Mexico, after all, had a history of currency devaluations, particularly during the transitions from one administration to another. Beyond that, Mexico was not a world monetary powerhouse and what it did would not normally attract great or sustained international attention.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Latin America, Mexico
  • Author: Anthony T. Bryan
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: The challenges confronting the Caribbean with respect to trade with Europe and the Americas are essentially similar: the future of existing regimes of significant preferences, the need to plan for the long term without such preferences, and the development of a strategy to meet the transition. Unfortunately, the dialogue on these matters often has been characterized as a protocol for the Caribbean to “choose between friends.” Growth in the economies of the Caribbean will depend to a large extent on participation in or access to global trade arrangements. Ideally, a Caribbean strategy for participation should involve simultaneous access to as many pacts as possible. This paper is an overview of the legacy and the future of trade relations between the Caribbean and Europe, and between the Caribbean and the Americas, as these relationships constitute the Caribbean's most urgent global agenda.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Europe, Caribbean
  • Author: Gerardo Gonzalez
  • Publication Date: 05-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: This paper analyzes how Cuban entrepreneurs perceive the importance of their role in Cuba's reintegration into the Caribbean. In the context of recent Cuban-Caribbean economic relations, Caribbean entrepreneurs have taken the lead, and Cuban entrepreneurs are trying to conduct business under changing and challenging conditions. As the Cuban economy gradually adapts to new national and international realities, an increasing number of Cuban firms are beginning to participate directly and actively in Cuba's external economic relations.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Cuba, Caribbean
  • Author: Glenn W. Harrison, Thomas F. Rutherfod
  • Publication Date: 05-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: This paper examines the net economic benefits and government revenue implications for Chile of forming a free trade area with MERCOSUR as an associate member, forming a free trade area with NAFTA, and reducing its external tariff multilaterally and unilaterally. The research shows that NAFTA would benefit Chile, but Chile must obtain improved access in non-grain crops, one of its key export sectors, or NAFTA will result in losses for Chile. Chile will lose from the MERCOSUR agreement as presently constituted but can gain from participation in MERCOSUR by reducing its external tariff to between 6 percent and 8 percent. Such a lowering of the external tariff would lead to a reduction of costly, trade-diverting imports (on which Chile does not collect tariffs) from high-priced partner country suppliers. The paper indicates that Chile should continue to push for NAFTA membership, while moving toward broader multilateral trade liberalization. Additionally, collecting the value added tax at more uniform rates in Chile would reduce domestic distortions and enhance the effectiveness of trade policy reforms.
  • Topic: Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Luigi Manzetti
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: Some economists have argued that before governments privatize state-owned monopolies in public utilities, they should first try to promote competition. If this is not done, privatization does not produce gains in economic efficiency; instead, it fosters rent-seeking behavior by the new private ownership. Few empirical analyses of rent-seeking behavior for Latin America in post-privatization environments have been done — those that exist concentrate on economic issues and neglect important political motivations. The purpose of this paper is to fill that gap and address key issues of public policy by examining the cases of Chile and Argentina and providing a political explanation for why the Chilean and Argentine governments allowed rent-seeking behavior in important public utility markets. Based upon an analysis of these experiences, the paper then discusses the types of institutions most likely to avoid such negative consequences.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Political Economy
  • Author: Carter Garber
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: In this paper, economist and development finance consultant Carter Garber examines the process of complementing donations and commercial bank credit with private investments as a source of capital for international microenterprise finance. First, he describes the large expectations for private capital in the rapid growth of microenterprise finance. Second, Garber discusses the varied sources of private capital, especially those involving socially responsible investment. The third and central section is an examination of eight “socially responsible investment” mechanisms that currently channel $27 million of U.S. private credit to microfinance lending institutions. Garber demonstrates the variety of available mechanisms and examines their track record to date. The final section identifies policy changes that will be necessary for these types of private investment in microenterprise to grow fast enough to meet the expected demand during the coming decade.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Publication Date: 12-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: In fall 1996, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held a series of conferences at National Defense University to identify key global trends and their impact on major regions and countries of the globe. The exercise was designed to help describe and assess major features of the political world as they will appear in the year 2010.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, South America
  • Author: Robert Chamberlain, Alexandra Cousteau, Nathan Ruff
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: With the end of the Cold War, the United States military and intelligence communities have been searching for new enemies and new roles. The demise of the Soviet Union presented an opportunity to revisit traditional conceptions of security and consider new missions such as heightened counter-terrorist activities and protection of US firms against economic espionage. In this project, special attention has been given to the importance of environmental change. The exploration of linkages between environmental change and security has developed into a complex debate focused on two fundamental and interrelated questions: Is environmental change a "traditional" security threat? In any case, what role is best played by the military and intelligence communities?
  • Topic: Security, Environment
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Richard N. Cooper
  • Publication Date: 12-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: International treaties in pursuit of common endeavors can be classified into two categories: those that set mutually agreed national objectives and leave each signatory to pursue them in their own way; and those that define mutually agreed actions. The proposed treaty on global climate change falls into the first category with respect to greenhouse gas emissions by the rich countries. Stabilization of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases requires eventual engagement of developing countries. The proposed treaty, based on historical emission levels, does not provide a foundation acceptable to them. Indeed, there is unlikely to be any generally acceptable principle for allocating emission rights, potentially worth trillions of dollars, among rich and poor countries. This probable impossibility suggests a successful attack on greenhouse gas emissions, necessarily international in scope, must be through mutually agreed actions, such as a nationally-collected emissions tax, rather than through national emission targets.
  • Topic: Environment, International Cooperation
  • Author: Richard. Tucker, Nathaniel. Beck
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Scholars in international relations (IR) are increasingly using time-series cross-section data to analyze models with a binary dependent variable (BTSCS models). IR scholars generally employ a simple logit/probit to analyze such data. This procedure is inappropriate if the data exhibit temporal or spatial dependence. First, we discuss two estimation methods for modelling temporal dependence in BTSCS data: one promising based on exact modelling of the underlying temporal process which determines the latent, continuous, dependent variable; The second, and easier to implement, depends on the formal equivalence of BTSCS and discrete duration data. Because the logit estimates a discrete hazard in a duration context, this method adds a smoothed time term to the logit estimation. Second, we discuss spatial or cross-sectional issues, including robust standard errors and the modelling of effects. While it is not possible to use fixed effects in binary dependent variable panel models, such a strategy is feasible for IR BTSCS models. While not providing a model of spatial dependence, Huber's robust standard errors may well provide more accurate indications of parameter variability if the unit observations are intra-related. We apply these recommended techniques to reanalyses of the relationship between (1) democracy, interdependence and peace (Oneal, Oneal, Maoz and Russett); and (2) security and the termination of interstate rivalry (Bennett). The techniques appear to perform well statistically. Substantively, while democratic dyads do appear to be more peaceful, trade relations, as measured by Oneal, et al., do not decrease the likelihood of particpation in militarized disputes, Bennett's principal finding regarding security and rivalry termination is confirmed; his finding on common external threats, however, is not; his results on the influence of issue salience are even more robust.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations
  • Author: John W. Schiemann, Kenneth Benoit
  • Publication Date: 05-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Theories which explain the origins of institutions as the product of struggles for distributive advantage provide only a general framework with no conceptualization of the bargaining process and few applications to empirical cases. We address both problems and extend the distributive theory of institutional origins by drawing on a unique set of data to examine the creation of the Hungarian electoral law of 1989. Arguing that outcomes are shaped by four mechanisms arising from bargaining - time preferences, the credibility of threats and promises, mimicked fairness, and symmetrical division - we develop observable implications of these mechanisms and test them empirically by analyzing the bargaining which produced the multiple rules of Hungary's complex electoral system. Not only does the Hungarian case confirm the bargaining mechanism theory of institutional origins, but the theory also explains many curious features of the Hungarian electoral institutions, including its surprising combination of extraordinary complexity and unusual stability.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe
  • Author: David E. Johnson
  • Publication Date: 07-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: On November 30, 1995, Secretary of Defense William J. Perry testified before the House International Relations and National Security committees on the commitment of U.S. ground forces to the Former Yugoslavia. The commitment, crafted in Dayton, Ohio, had been avoided for some 4 years. Perry carefully discussed the mission, rules of engagement, and exit strategy for U.S. forces.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Yugoslavia
  • Author: Simon V. Mayall
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: At the end of the Cold War every country was forced to reexamine the fundamental assumptions that had formed their security policies for the last 45 years. Among the "victors" of the Cold War, few countries were faced with a more disparate set of new circumstances than Turkey. Unlike the United States and Western Europe, "victory" for Turkey had a very ambivalent quality. Almost overnight Turkey moved from being the buttressing flank of one strategic region, to the epicenter of a new one.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Religion
  • Political Geography: United States, Turkey
  • Author: Marc Sommers, Larry Minear, Ted van Baarda
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: The world's response to the Kosovo crisis dramatizes the increased role of international military forces in humanitarian action. Some people view this development positively as the harnessing of the military for humanitarian tasks; others are alarmed at the perceived militarization of humanitarian action. A workshop convened by the Netherlands Foreign Ministry in The Hague on November 15-16, 1999, assessed these different perspectives on the Kosovo experience in the light of research it had commissioned.
  • Topic: War
  • Political Geography: Kosovo, Netherlands
  • Author: Richard Jolly
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: John W. Holmes' talk for the first annual meeting of the Academic Council on the United Nations System ( ACUNS ) in 1988 was titled Looking Backwards and Forwards. I would like to put the emphasis in this article on looking forwards—from Copenhagen plus one to the year 2000, 2015, or even 2030. In short, I would like to direct attention to the world that the United Nations will need to face in the years ahead, and explore how human advance can be carried forward over that period, rather than dwell on the predicaments in which the world is at present caught up or through which the UN has struggled over the fifty years of its existence.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United Nations