Topic: - CIAO Search Results

38601. Turkey and the PKK: Saving the Peace Process

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The peace process to end the 30-year-old insurgency of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) against Turkey's government is at a turning point. It will either collapse as the sides squander years of work, or it will accelerate as they commit to real convergences. Both act as if they can still play for time – the government to win one more election, the PKK to further build up quasi-state structures in the country's predominantly- Kurdish south east. But despite a worrying upsurge in hostilities, they currently face few insuperable obstacles at home and have two strong leaders who can still see the process through. Without first achieving peace, they cannot cooperate in fighting their common enemy, the jihadi threat, particularly from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Increasing ceasefire violations, urban unrest and Islamist extremism spilling over into Turkey from regional conflicts underline the cost of delays. Both sides must put aside external pretexts and domestic inertia to compromise on the chief problem, the Turkey-PKK conflict inside Turkey.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

38602. TSG IntelBrief: Economic Drivers of an Iran Nuclear Deal

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: There are clear and compelling economic imperatives for Iran to accept a nuclear agreement with the P5+1 (U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany) by a November 24 deadline. The Iranian public has chafed under comprehensive sanctions since 2010 and expect President Hassan Rouhani to deliver a nuclear agreement that enables the economy to recover and grow. U.S. and other P5+1 officials stress the economic opportunities for Iran that will result, including the eventual re-opening of Iran's oil and gas sector to foreign investment. Major international firms are poised to re-enter the Iranian market in the event of a nuclear deal, although firms will initially be cautious due to lingering uncertainty.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Middle East

38603. The Islamic State

Author:: Richard Barrett
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The self-styled Islamic State is an accident of history, emerging from multiple social, political and economic tensions in the Middle East and beyond. It has challenged the territorial divisions imposed on the region following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire by carving out for itself a large area of territory. But ultimately, its impact will flow as much from its challenge to established concepts of government, national sovereignty, and national identity. The Islamic State is most notable for the violence with which it asserts control, but its ruthless tactics will likely prevent the group from ruling effectively and building broader support beyond the front line fighters who protect its security and the authoritarian killers who patrol its streets.
Topic:: Security, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

38604. TSG IntelBrief: The Death of the Free Syrian Army?

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The collapse of two prominent coalition-supported Syrian rebel groups at the hands of al-Qaeda-affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) has not just compounded doubts against the capabilities and loyalties of these groups but also doubt as to whether any "moderate" rebel group can succeed. This long-simmering uncertainty about arming and training rebel groups that aren't as cohesive or even as moderate as once hoped throws into question the prospects of an acceptable military solution to the almost four-year long Syrian civil war. The coalition-equipped rebel groups Harakat Hazm and the Syrian Revolutionary Front were overrun in northern Syria by JN-though most rebel groups have long cooperated with it and, unlike Washington, don't consider the group to be a terrorist organization. Reports of increased airstrikes against JN will further drive a wedge between most rebel groups and the U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA), that demands the primary target is the Bashar al-Assad regime and not extremist groups fighting it. The realities of settling the civil war exclusively, thus far, via rebel military might open up other avenues for non-military actors to assume a role in resolving the war; after all, there are an estimated 2.5 million refugees and another 6.5 internally displaced persons in Syria, with obvious needs that perhaps new Syrian civilian leadership might stand up to address.
Topic:: Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

38605. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State: An Accident of History

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The following IntelBrief is excerpted from The Soufan Group's recent long-form report on The Islamic State, which takes an in-depth look at the extremist group's operations across Iraq and Syria. From late 2011 up to today, The Islamic State has shown itself both tactically and strategically adept. After years of surviving as a persistently violent criminal/terrorist gang able to mount multiple synchronized attacks in urban areas in Iraq but little more, it achieved unparalleled gains when the collapse of government in northern and eastern Syria allowed it to expand across the border. At the same time, the sectarian approach of then-Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki had made the Sunni minority in Iraq ready to support any group that appeared to have the potential to reverse its increasing marginalization. It's accurate to say the group would still exist-but in nothing like its current form-had only one of those two catastrophes-Syria and Maliki-occurred; that both played out as they did made what has happened seem an almost inevitable accident of history.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

38606. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State: A Monopoly on Messaging

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The deliberate targeting and killing of journalists by The Islamic State (IS) and the resulting lack of outside reporting has created a nearly information-free zone for the group to fill with its own messaging. The group's embrace of the decentralized nature of social media has allowed its many thousands of cyber-supporters to create and operate their own ministries of propaganda. Abu Mohammad al-Adnani is the official spokesman for the group, but the notion of an official spokesman does not really apply to IS in the way it has applied to al Qaeda; the crowdsourcing of messages negates the need for a single point of contact.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Communications, Mass Media, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Iraq, North Africa, and Syria

38607. TSG IntelBrief: Ordered Chaos: The Structure of The Islamic State

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: For a group that feeds on chaos, The Islamic State (IS) itself is rigidly structured and organized. The growing bureaucratic and administrative demands on IS as it attempts to govern the areas it controls-while under increasing military pressure-will stress the group and its structure like never before. The group benefits from ruling over populations that have little experience in effective government services, meaning that the very conditions that helped fuel IS's rise now give it wide latitude to deliver sub-par services for at least the near-term without risking revolt, at least for reasons of shoddy governance. From the caliph-level down to the district level, the group has a repetitive three-office ruling structure that provides easy-to-understand lanes of responsibility and authority, which is vital for a growing organization whose sole membership requirement is belief in its cause.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:: Iraq and Syria

38608. TSG IntelBrief: Removing The Islamic State from Local Economies

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: Like a tumor, the Islamic State (IS) feeds off the vitality of its unwilling hosts, sustaining itself from the economies of the areas it controls Efforts to deprive IS of its million-dollar-a-day revenue will be as difficult as it will be vital, since the group takes a percentage of local economic activity; hurting those economies to deprive IS of money will be counter-productive The coalition efforts to defeat IS militarily must be sufficient enough to thwart its advances while remaining targeted enough to ensure the vulnerable population doesn't unite with IS in collective suffering Destroying mobile oil refineries is an effective use of air power to deny IS more finances but it will prove less effective against destroying the percentage IS takes from everyday transactions that it calls taxes In short, the solution is to remove IS from the money, not the other way around, which only will only weaken and radicalize already struggling populations.
Topic:: Economics, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Iraq and Syria

38609. TSG IntelBrief: From Bucca to Kobani: The Hybrid Ideology of the Islamic State

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The reshaping of what is now the Islamic State (IS) began among the detainee populations in military prisons such as Camp Bucca in Iraq, where violent extremists and former regime personalities forged mutual interests over years of confinement IS is now a chimera of Ba'athist and takfiri ideologies, with the organizational skills of the former helping channel the motivational fervor of the latter It is more than a marriage of convenience between the two seemingly at-odds groups; the former Ba'athists among the group and the religious ideologues now have visions of a return to Sunni glory that merges Usama bin Ladin with Saddam Hussein While at smaller unit levels there will be conflict between the two halves of the whole-as witnessed in the fighting between IS and the Naqshbandi Army after the fall of Mosul-the former regime officers who are now senior leaders in IS appear fully committed to the ideals and goals of the group, a result of a thorough radicalization that has extended from imprisonment years ago up to now These prison-hardened fighters were so important to IS that they undertook a year-long campaign (2012-2013) called "Breaking the Walls" to free what would prove to be the last pieces needed for expansion.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

38610. TSG IntelBrief: The Logic of Foreign Fighters as Suicide Bombers

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: While there is understandable concern that an unknown percentage of foreign fighters fighting for the so-called Islamic State (IS) might return to their home countries intent on continuing the fight, IS appears intent on using them in suicide attacks in both Iraq and Syria IS goes to great length to publicize the foreign fighters who die in suicide attacks, which greatly enhances the group in the eyes of unstable people looking for martyrdom, creating a feedback loop of death A recent statement by IS showed that 80% of the suicide attacks in Iraq between September and early October were committed by foreign fighters; this continues a trend of IS using their foreign fighters in suicide attacks while Iraqi fighters take on the role of traditional soldiers Along with Saudi nationals, who conducted 60% of the suicide attacks referenced above, fighters from North Africa consistently feature prominently in IS suicide attacks, which closely matches the suicide bombing statistics from the 2003 Iraq war, though now there are more suicide operatives from western Europe
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

38611. TSG IntelBrief: Lack of Trust Hinders Second Sunni Awakening

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: Coalition airstrikes are intended to blunt the momentum of the self-declared Islamic State (IS) and provide time for a popular Sunni uprising that might never happen given the understandable lack of trust among all sides The Sunni Awakening that helped diminish the precursor group to IS in 2006-2009 is the successful outlier in Iraq's history of tragic uprisings; and it will not likely be replicated since the conditions that allowed it to succeed no longer exist To that end, one of the foundational assumptions of the effort to dismantle IS-that the Sunni tribes will soon rise up and oppose IS in a second Awakening-is built on uncertain ground Sunni tribal leaders realize there won't be anything near 2007-levels of support (material, financial, training) if they oppose IS en masse, and after gaining next to nothing politically after the first Awakening, there is no trust in a different outcome for any second Awakening Reports of a failed Sunni uprising in eastern Syria are additional disincentives for both Syrian and Iraqi Sunni populations to fight IS, and additional incentive to wait and see what external factors will emerge to change the status quo.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

38612. TSG IntelBrief: The Fight the Islamic State Really Wants: Iraqi Shi'a

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: With apparent heavy losses in Kobani, Syria, the so-called Islamic State (IS) is stepping up efforts to ignite the one fight it wants above all: a full sectarian war with Iraq's Shi'a population IS will likely accept serious losses, as long as it can claim to be the Sunni extremist vanguard in the fight against the Shi'a; this means the group will focus on high-profile and high-casualty attacks against Shi'a symbols and populations With the February 2006 bombing the 'Golden Mosque' in Samarra, Abu Mus'ab al-Zarqawi finally got the fight he was looking for against the Shi'a and in doing so moved the IS precursor group AQI further up the list of the most feared and capable Iraqi extremist groups The new government of Prime Minister Haydar al-Abadi will be pressured to overreact to IS attacks and to let loose the Shi'a militia that battled with both Sunni extremists and innocents alike eight years ago; a heavy-handed sectarian response will be a disaster for the country, even if it is asking a great deal for those being attacked to show restraint.
Topic:: Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Arab Countries

38613. TSG IntelBrief: Jordan and the War Next Door

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: In neighboring Iraq, over 1,100 Jordanians are believed to be fighting for the so-called Islamic State (IS) according to Jordanian former Prime Minister Maruf al-Bakhit, with another 200 having already died fighting Although that's only 0.0203% of Jordan's 6.4 million population, and enough for serious concern, it's testament to Jordanian society that with the constant fighting next door such a small percentage have taken up arms for IS After the 2005 Amman bombings, al Qaeda in Iraq (the precursor to IS) was widely despised in Jordan; now nine years later, over a thousand Jordanians are fighting for the same group In his October 18, 2014 remarks, Bakhit stated that there were between 2,000-4,000 Jordanians who adhere to the violent takfiri ideology most famously espoused by the late Jordanian Abu Mus'ab al Zarqawi Along with the fear of a radicalized population after a decade of war raging across two of its borders is the fear of what happens next in Iraq and Syria According to Bakhit, a partitioned Iraq is too problematic to work despite its obvious appeal amid the current fighting, with resources unevenly distributed across the country and Baghdad far too mixed for one side to claim.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

38614. TSG IntelBrief: Saudi Arabia's Challenges

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: As King Abdullah remains out of sight, worries persist over Saudi Arabia's ability to handle its many domestic and foreign issues The Sunni-Shi'a divide is now seen largely in terms of competition for influence between Saudi Arabia and Iran But it is not just the Sunni-Shi'a tension which impacts the region as Saudi Arabia and Turkey also compete for primacy in the Arab Middle East; the three-way competition has been a key factor in the chronic conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen Common antipathy toward the self-declared Islamic State is the only glue that holds together the US-led coalition at this time: there's no consensus on how to defeat it, what to put in its place, and the role of Iran-issues made more complicated by questions about Saudi Arabia's internal decision process.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islam, Power Politics, Counterinsurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

38615. TSG IntelBrief: The U.S.-India Relationship Reinvigorated

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's September visit to the United States allowed for the "soft reset" of a strategic partnership that has been in search of greater focus in recent years The smiles and handshakes served to ease the anxieties that had been building on both sides and had contributed to increased squabbling in the bilateral relationship Mutual frustrations are likely to continue in areas such as intellectual property rights and multilateral trade negotiations, where there has been no reconciliation in the two countries' largely incompatible points of view The U.S. and India share clearly convergent interests in both combating Islamist militancy and in balancing against a rising China Although the partnership's full potential is far from realized, these two geostrategic issues are sufficient to keep the trajectory positive and to sustain widely-held hopes that ties between the world's two largest democracies will continue to deepen.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, South Asia, and India

38616. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State and the Divided Opposition

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The self-declared Islamic State (IS)'s strategy of exploiting and exacerbating divisions among its opponents ranks as one of its greatest weapons, and one of the coalition's greatest weaknesses Turkey's airstrikes against the Kurdistan Workers' Party in southeast Turkey are the latest example-and perhaps most damaging in the near-term-of opponents of IS fighting each other instead of the group IS was sustained during its weakest period (2008-2010) in part by exploiting real tensions between various groups-Sunni vs Shi'a, Sunni vs Sunni, Sunni vs Kurd, etc-that prevented an "everybody vs IS" opposition that remains the only way to defeat the group IS will continue to create/exacerbate/leverage the differences between the US and Turkey, Saudi Arabia/UAE and Qatar, the Kurds and various parties, so much so that focus is more on tactically keeping the coalition together and less on strategically strangling IS.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan

38617. TSG IntelBrief: Iran Nuclear Talks Intersect Regional Events

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: Iran is attempting to link greater cooperation against the so-called Islamic State (IS) organization to concessions by the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program Iran and the P5+1 remain far apart on the core issue of Iran's uranium enrichment program, increasing the likelihood that the talks will be extended beyond the current deadline of November 24 Iran requires a nuclear deal to satisfy public expectations and to increase its influence on regional events, including the US-led effort against IS A key Iranian goal is to dissuade the coalition from expanding the anti-IS campaign to include destabilizing the Assad regime in Syria.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, Germany, and Syria

38618. TSG IntelBrief: Coalition Under Stress: Iran Won't be Excluded

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: As if sustaining an effective coalition against the anti-Islamic State coalition weren't complicated enough, increasingly open Iranian support for Syrian and Iraqi Kurds has the potential to further destabilize the situation Geopolitical machinations have excluded Iran from the international coalition but geographical realities will ensure the country has a significant role to play in the future of both Iraq and Syria Iran is seeking to leverage its support for the Kurds as a way to bolster its beleaguered ally in Damascus, Bashar al-Assad, and increase Iranian influence in Kurdish regions at the expense of Turkey and the West Overt Iranian support for the Kurds-while reaffirming support for Assad-will further stress the coalition, inevitably increasing sectarian tensions among members already grumbling that Assad and not IS is the true enemy; all while the West remains focused on IS and how to avoid entanglement in Syria As a sign of Iran's surprising Kurdish influence, Turkish and Iranian officials met on October 9 to discuss the unfolding events in Kobani, remarkable in that neither country is a member of the coalition but both hold most of the cards to resolve the immediate crisis.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Affairs, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Syria

38619. Beyond Magic Bullets in Governance Reform

Author:: Diane De Gramont
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Domestic reformers and external donors have invested enormous energy and resources into improving governance in developing countries since the 1990s. Yet there is still remarkably little understanding of how governance progress actually occurs in these contexts. Reform strategies that work well in some places often prove disappointing elsewhere. A close examination of governance successes in the developing world indicates that effective advocacy must move beyond a search for single-focus “magic bullet” solutions toward an integrated approach that recognizes multiple interrelated drivers of governance change.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, Foreign Aid, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: South Korea

38620. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Future of Political Islam in Egypt

Author:: Ashraf El-Sherif
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The current turmoil in Egypt—including social strife, polarization, and violence—has cast shadows on the potential for Islamist integration as well as the regime's ability to achieve political stability. Shifting external and internal dynamics of Islamist organizations indicate five possible scenarios for the future of the Muslim Brotherhood. Its path will have far-reaching implications for political Islam and democratization in Egypt.
Topic:: Political Violence, Democratization, and Islam
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

38621. Accountability, Transparency, Participation, and Inclusion: A New Development Consensus?

Author:: Thomas Carothers and Saskia Brechenmacher
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Four key principles—accountability, transparency, participation, and inclusion—have in recent years become nearly universal features of the policy statements and programs of international development organizations. Yet this apparently widespread new consensus is deceptive: behind the ringing declarations lie fundamental fissures over the value and application of these concepts. Understanding and addressing these divisions is crucial to ensuring that the four principles become fully embedded in international development work.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, International Cooperation, and Foreign Aid

38622. Exploring the Prospects for Russian-Turkish Cooperation in a Turbulent Neighborhood

Author:: Dmitri V. Trenin and Memduh Karakullukçu
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Even though tensions over Ukraine will inevitably cast a shadow over the bilateral relationship, Russia and Turkey—a NATO member—continue to share a range of important interests. Indeed, there are a number of areas in which the two can work together in their common neighborhood, which stretches from the South Caucasus and the Levant to Central Asia and Afghanistan. A high-level working group on Russian-Turkish regional cooperation has sketched a forward-looking approach for Russia and Turkey in tackling regional challenges.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

38623. Ending Libya's Civil War: Reconciling Politics, Rebuilding Security

Author:: Frederic M. Wehrey
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: More than three years after the fall of strongman Muammar Qaddafi, Libya is in the midst of a bitter civil war rooted in a balance of weakness between the country's political factions and armed groups. With a domestic landscape torn apart by competing claims to power and with interference from regional actors serving to entrench divides, restoring stability in Libya and building a unified security structure will be difficult if not impossible without broad-based political reconciliation.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, and Governance
Political Geography:: Libya, Arabia, and North Africa

38624. Qatar and the Arab Spring: Policy Drivers and Regional Implications

Author:: Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: During the Arab Spring, Qatar moved away from its traditional foreign policy role as diplomatic mediator to embrace change in the Middle East and North Africa and support transitioning states. Regional actors viewed Qatar's approach as overreaching, and skepticism of Doha's policy motivations increased. Qatar's new leadership, which came to power in June 2013, is adapting by reverting to a more pragmatic foreign policy and addressing the fallout from its support for Islamist movements in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Qatar

38625. China's Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth

Author:: Yukon Huang and Canyon Bosler
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Much of the media coverage of China's economy suggests that the country is headed for a financial crisis. China's mountain of debt is decried, local government finances are labeled menacing, and a property bubble is called disastrous. But this picture is misleading. While China has serious debt problems, with prudent macroeconomic policies and productivity-enhancing structural reforms, the challenges should be manageable if underlying fiscal issues and growth-related reforms are addressed.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, and Reform
Political Geography:: China and East Asia

38626. Dr. Hans Blix: Non-Use of Armed Force in State Relations - an Evolving Norm

Author:: Hans Blix
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:: This World Leaders Forum program titled, Non-Use of Armed Force in State Relations - an Evolving Norm, features an address by Dr. Hans Blix, former Executive Chairman of the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission for Iraq, followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

38627. Dilemmas of Campaigning and Governing in the United States: A Conversation with Governor Lincoln D. Chafee

Author:: Lincoln Chafee
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:: This World Leaders Forum program titled, Dilemmas of Campaigning and Governing in the United States: A Conversation with Governor Lincoln D. Chafee, will feature a discussion with Lincoln D. Chafee, Governor of Rhode Island and the following participants: Introduction:David Johnston, Professor of Political Science, Columbia University in the City of New York Interlocutor:Ester Fuchs, Professor of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University in the City of New York.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States and New York

38628. Rached Ghannouchi: Islam, Democracy, and the Future of the Muslim World

Author:: Rached Ghannouchi
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:: This World Leaders Forum program titled, Rached Ghannouchi: Islam, Democracy, and the Future of the Muslim World, features an address by Rached Ghannouchi, leader of Tunisia's Ennahdha Party, followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
Topic:: Islam, Governance, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

38629. Children in the Age of Sustainable Development

Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:: Children are the common basis for sustainable development but often lack a participatory voice and societal influence. The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have proven that raised awareness, leadership, increased investments in Early Childhood Development, basic interventions in health, nutrition, care and protection and partnership with the private sector can prevent millions of children from dying from preventable causes like malaria, HIV/AIDS, diarrhea, pneumonia, and famime while providing an opportunity to secure children's wellbeing and development. This discussion seeks to unify the various aspects of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and identify a framework for children's development that underpins many of the targets and indicators under consideration.
Topic:: Development, Health, and Human Welfare

38630. Her Excellency Erna Solberg, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Norway

Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:: This World Leaders Forum program features an address by Her Excellency Erna Solberg, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Norway titled, To End Poverty, We Need Peace, followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
Topic:: Peace Studies, Political Economy, Poverty, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Europe and Norway

38631. His Excellency Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan

Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:: This World Leaders Forum program features an address by His Excellency Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan, followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Japan and East Asia

38632. His Excellency Dr. Mohamed Moncef Marzouki, President of the Republic of Tunisia

Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:: This World Leaders Forum program features an address by His Excellency Dr. Mohamed Moncef Marzouki, President of the Republic of Tunisia, titled The Arab Spring and the Tunisia Initiative on Creating an International Constitutional Court, followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
Topic:: Governance, Law, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

38633. The Value of Forest Ecosystem Services to Developing Economies

Author:: Katrina Mullan
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This paper assesses the scale of the potential co-benefits for residents of developing countries of protecting forest ecosystems in order to mitigate climate change. The objective is to improve understanding among development practitioners of the ways in which services provided by forest ecosystems can also make important contributions to achieving development objectives such as improvements to health and safety, and maintenance of food and energy security. This is achieved by reviewing empirical studies that estimate the value of specific ecosystem services derived from forests in order to evaluate and describe the current state of knowledge on how the wellbeing of local people is likely to be affected by the introduction of global mechanisms for avoided deforestation in developing countries. There are four main ways in which wellbeing can be affected: 1) forests provide soil protection and water regulation services, which in turn reduce waterborne diseases, maintain irrigation water supply, and mitigate risks of natural disaster; 2) forests provide habitat for birds, fish, mammals and insects that affect human health and income generation opportunities; 3) clearing forest through use of fire can lead to respiratory illness and property damage, particularly if the fires spread accidentally; and 4) tropical forests are particularly high in biodiversity, making them important locally as well as globally as a potential source of genetic material for new crop varieties and pharmaceuticals. Evidence on the size of these benefits suggests that while they are highly variable, households in or near forests and poor households benefit most from forest ecosystem services.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, Water, and Food

38634. Ecosystem Services from Tropical Forests: Review of Current Science

Author:: Katrina Brandon
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Tropical forests exert a more profound influence on weather patterns, freshwater, natural disasters, biodiversity, food, and human health–both in the countries where forests are found and in distant countries–than any other terrestrial biome. This report explains the variety of environmental services tropical forests provide and the science underlying how forests provide these services. Tropical deforestation and degradation have reduced the area covered by tropical forests from 12 percent to less than 5 percent of Earth's land area. Forest loss and degradation has reduced or halted the flows of a wide range of ecosystem goods and services, increasing the vulnerability of potentially billions of people to a variety of damaging impacts. Established and emerging science findings suggest that we have substantially underestimated the global importance of tropical forests and the impacts of their loss on human well-being.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Natural Disasters, and Natural Resources

38635. Who Pollutes? A Household-Level Database of America's Greenhouse Gas Footprint

Author:: Kevin Ummel
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This paper describes the creation of a database providing estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints for 6 million US households over the period 2008-2012. The database allows analysis of footprints for 52 types of consumption (e.g. electricity, gasoline, apparel, beef, air travel, etc.) within and across geographic regions as small as individual census tracts. Potential research applications with respect to carbon pricing and tax policy are discussed. Preliminary analysis reveals:
Topic:: Energy Policy, Environment, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: United States and America

38636. How Much Will Health Coverage Cost? Future Health Spending Scenarios in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico

Author:: Amanda Glassman and Juan Ignacio Zoloa
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: As Latin American countries seek to expand the coverage and benefits provided by their health systems under a global drive for universal health coverage (UHC), decisions taken today–whether by government or individuals-will have an impact tomorrow on public spending requirements. To understand the implications of these decisions and define needed policy reforms, this paper calculates long-term projections for public spending on health in three countries, analyzing different scenarios related to population, risk factors, labor market participation, and technological growth. In addition, the paper simulates the effects of different policy options and their potential knock-on effects on health expenditure.
Topic:: Health, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile

38637. Costing a Data Revolution

Author:: Gabriel Demombynes and Justin Sandefur
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The lack of reliable development statistics for many poor countries has led the U.N. to call for a “data revolution” (United Nations, 2013). One fairly narrow but widespread interpretation of this revolution is for international aid donors to fund a coordinated wave of household surveys across the developing world, tracking progress on a new round of post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals. We use data from the International Household Survey Network (IHSN) to show (i) the supply of household surveys has accelerated dramatically over the past 30 years and that (ii) demand for survey data appears to be higher in democracies and more aid-dependent countries. We also show that given existing international survey programs, the cost to international aid donors of filling remaining survey gaps is manageable--on the order of $300 million per year. We argue that any aid-financed expansion of household surveys should be complemented with (a) increased access to data through open data protocols, and (b) simultaneous support for the broader statistical system, including routine administrative data systems.
Topic:: Development, Human Welfare, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Asia and United Nations

38638. Trading Forests: Quantifying the Contribution of Global Commodity Markets to Emissions from Tropical Deforestation

Author:: Martin Persson, Sabine Henders, and Thomas Kastner
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This paper aims to improve our understanding of how and where global supply-chains link consumers of agricultural and forest commodities across the world to forest destruction in tropical countries. A better understanding of these linkages can help inform and support the design of demand-side interventions to reduce tropical deforestation. To that end, we map the link between deforestation for four commodities (beef, soybeans, palm oil, and wood products) in eight case countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea) to consumption, through international trade. Although few, the studied countries comprise a large share of the internationally traded volumes of the analyzed commodities: 83% of beef and 99% of soybean exports from Latin America, 97% of global palm oil exports, and roughly half of (official) tropical wood products trade. The analysis covers the period 2000-2009. We find that roughly a third of tropical deforestation and associated carbon emissions (3.9 Mha and 1.7 GtCO2) in 2009 can be attributed to our four case commodities in our eight case countries. On average a third of analyzed deforestation was embodied in agricultural exports, mainly to the EU and China. However, in all countries but Bolivia and Brazil, export markets are dominant drivers of forest clearing for our case commodities. If one excludes Brazilian beef on average 57% of deforestation attributed to our case commodities was embodied in exports. The share of emissions that was embodied in exported commodities increased between 2000 and 2009 for every country in our study except Bolivia and Malaysia.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Environment, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Malaysia, Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, and Bolivia

38639. Why Maintaining Tropical Forests Is Essential and Urgent for a Stable Climate

Author:: Rosa C. Goodman and Martin Herold
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Tropical forests have the highest carbon density and cover more land area than forests in any other biome. They also serve a vital role as a natural buffer to climate change ―capturing 2.2–2.7 Gt of carbon per year. Unfortunately, tropical forests, mangroves, and peatlands are also subjected to the highest levels of deforestation and account for nearly all net emissions from Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) (1.1–1.4 Gt C / year). Net emissions from FOLU accounted for only 11% of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or 14% of total carbon emissions in 2010, though these figures are somewhat misleading and do not reflect the full potential of tropical forests to mitigate climate change. First, net FOLU emissions have reduced only slightly while emissions from all other sectors have skyrocketed. Secondly, the FOLU net flux is made up of two larger fluxes —deforestation emissions (2.6–2.8 Gt C / year) minus sequestration from forest regrowth (1.2–1.7 Gt C / year). Additionally, intact tropical forests also appear to be capturing at least 1.0 Gt C/ year. Gross deforestation, therefore, accounts for over a quarter of all carbon emissions, and tropical forests have removed 22–26% of all anthropogenic carbon emissions in the 2000s. If deforestation were halted entirely, forests were allowed to regrow, and mature forests were left undisturbed, tropical forests alone could have captured 25–35% of all other anthropogenic carbon emissions. On the other hand, if climate change continues unabated, forests could turn from net sinks to net sources of carbon. Forestrelated activities are among the most economically feasible and cost-effective mitigation strategies, which are important for both short- and long-term mitigation strategies. Action is needed immediately to utilize these natural mitigation solutions, and we need coordinated and comprehensive forest-related policies for mitigation. An international mechanism such as REDD+ is essential to realize the great natural potential for tropical forests to stabilize the climate.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Reform
Political Geography:: Africa, South Asia, and Latin America

38640. Why should we care about 3D-printing and what are potential security implications?

Author:: Dr Gustav Lindstrom
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Additive manufacturing, also known as 3 dimensional printing, is not a new technology.The first 3D-printer was unveiled in 1984 by 3D Systems Corporation - some thirty years ago. Some might even argue that the origins of 3D-printing were foreshadowed in the early 1900s through the automated pointing machine used by German sculptor Max Kruse. However, it was only around 2010 that a growing number of businesses and households began to explore its potential, largely due to the introduction of less expensive models. From 2007-2011, sales of 3D-printers grew 200-400 percent every year.
Topic:: Security, Communications, Mass Media, Intellectual Property/Copyright, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Germany

38641. South Korea and China: A Strategic Partnership in the Making

Author:: Mr Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: President Xi Jinping's July 2014 visit to Seoul indicates that the strategic partnership between China and the Republic of Korea is moving forward against a backdrop of growing power competition and instability in the region. Both Seoul and Beijing have strong interest in close cooperation: Beijing wants to prevent a full-fledged trilateral alliance between the US, Japan and South Korea aimed at containing China's rising power Seoul needs Chinese support in its efforts to reach out to Pyongyang and work towards future reunification.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, International Affairs, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Beijing, Asia, and South Korea

38642. EU Sanctions Against Russia: Europe brings a hard edge to its economic power

Author:: Kristi Raik, Juha Jokela, and Niklas Helwig
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The EU has responded to the Ukraine crisis with a set of political and economic sanctions against Russia which constitute a qualitatively new step in the EU sanctions policy. The EU sanctions against Russia are exceptional and have strategic importance due to a combination of three factors: big power rivalry, the context of a major European crisis with global ramifications, and the costs of the sanctions for the EU itself. The EU has managed to maintain its fragile unity and has applied its collective diplomatic and economic weight in very difficult circumstances. The sanctions have not provided an alternative to diplomatic efforts to solve the crisis - on the contrary, hardening sanctions have been used as a way to put pressure on Russia to seriously engage in diplomacy. The impact of the sanctions on daily developments in Ukraine has been limited and uncertain, but the sanctions have imposed a long-term cost on Russia for violating key international norms. The policy process of Russia sanctions has exposed problems of leadership and coordination. The latest reform of the EU foreign policy machinery has streamlined the preparation of sanctions, but the current system still lacks the necessary resources to match the growing importance of the EU sanctions policy.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Power Politics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

38643. China's Public Opinion Management: Tightening the Grip in the Digital Age

Author:: Elina Sinkkonen
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The number of netizens in China is growing year on year and the increase in the use of mobile technologies to access the internet is the most notable trend of late. Around half of the Chinese population are now internet users. The Chinese leadership has tightened internet control since August 2013. In February 2014, China established Central Internet Security and Information Leading Group, headed by President Xi Jinping, to monitor Chinese cyberspace. Defamatory social media posts were criminalized, and the first sentence was imposed in April 2014. Despite stricter internet control, criticism of the state and politicians has often been tolerated in social media, whereas any content that promotes offline collective action is systematically censored. However, the idea that the development of the internet in China would lead to significant political change seems unwarranted in the current circumstances. Poll data released on September 9 show that almost 90 per cent of the Chinese respondents harbour negative views about Japan. Internet forums and increasing commercialization of the traditional media are contributing to this public opinion trend, which complicates the handling of China's turbulent relations with Japan.
Topic:: Politics, Communications, Mass Media, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

38644. How to Reform the UN Climate Negotiations? Perspectives from the past, present and neighbour negotiations

Author:: Antto Vihma
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: There is a pressing need to clarify, institutionalize and increase the efficiency of the work of the UN climate negotiations. This task starts with a systematic search for possible solutions and the political will to begin a long battle to push them through. At the next stage of maturity, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change should streamline its work programme, cut sessions, eliminate overlaps, and delete agenda items. These kinds of reforms will be politically fraught, and in practice need to be accomplished together with a package of substantive decisions.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: United Nations

38645. The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership:European Disintegration, Unemployment and Instability

Author:: Jeronim Capaldo
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:: According to its proponents, the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership will stimulate growth in Europe and in the US. Projections endorsed by the European Commission point to positive, although negligible, gains in terms of GDP and personal incomes. In a paradox, these projections also show that any gains in Trans-Atlantic trade would happen at the expense of intra-EU trade reversing the process of European economic integration. Furthermore, recent literature has pointed out several problems in the most influential assessment of the TTIP's effects. Projections by different institutions have been shown to rely on the same Computable General Equilibrium model that has proven inadequate as a tool for trade policy analysis. In this paper we assess the effects of TTIP using the United Nations Global Policy Model, which incorporates more sensible assumptions on macroeconomic adjustment, employment dynamics, and global trade. We project that TTIP will lead to a contraction of GDP, personal incomes and employment. We also project an increase in financial instability and a continuing downward trend in the labor share of GDP. Evaluated with the United Nations model, TTIP appears to favor economic dis-integration, rather than integration, in Europe. At a minimum, this shows that official studies do not offer a solid basis for an informed decision on TTIP.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and United Nations

38646. New Report Examines East Africa and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development

Author:: Solomon Dersso
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), composed of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda with its secretariat headquartered in Djibouti, covers northeast Africa, a region continuing to experience major changes, arguably more than any other part of the continent. This is the only region of Africa where colonially drawn borders have been redrawn. In contrast to other regions of Africa, this is also where the prospect of further redrawing of borders—with Somaliland seeking international recognition as a separate state—remains a real possibility.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Economics, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:: Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan

38647. Improving UN Capacity for Rapid Deployment

Author:: H. Peter Langille
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Rapid deployment of large peace operations into conflict zones worldwide is a demanding process. Within the United Nations system, the process is further complicated and frequently delayed by a long list of tasks, including the need to seek the support of member states for the deployment of their national personnel and resources. Yet, rapid deployment remains an important standard with specified response times and an objective that underpins many related reforms.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Peacekeeping, and Reform
Political Geography:: United Nations

38648. A Blueprint for a Comprehensive US Counterterrorism Strategy in Yemen

Author:: Danya Greenfield and Barbara K. Bodine
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: With the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the explosion of violent conflicts from Tripoli to Gaza, the Middle East is looking more unstable and unpredictable than ever. While the focus in Washington is centered on jihadist extremists in Iraq and Syria at present, the threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) against the United States continues. Top al-Qaeda leadership in Yemen is hailing the territorial gains of ISIS in Iraq, and some al-Qaeda operatives are imitating ISIS' techniques such as public slaughters of those deemed infidels, prompting fears of cooperation between two of the most active Islamist militant networks. Recent aggression by the Houthi movement, a Zaydi Shia rebel militia, against state institutions and tribal opponents has opened a new front of instability and security vacuum that AQAP is all too ready to exploit. Inattention to the interconnected nature of tribal conflict, terrorist activity, poor governance, economic grievances and citizen discontent is proving to be a dangerous combination for both Yemen and the United States. The Yemeni context may seem far from the current focus on Baghdad and Damascus, but getting the US strategy right in Yemen will have consequences for regional stability and core US interests throughout the Arabian Peninsula and beyond.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, Labor Issues, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Arabia, and Syria

38649. Reforming Tunisia's Troubled Security Sector

Author:: Bassem Bouguerra
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The December 2010 self-immolation of twenty-six-year-old itinerant fruit vendor Mohamed Bouazizi sparked popular protests in Tunisia that rippled throughout the Arab world. Like so many of Tunisia's youth, Bouazizi felt disenfranchised by the Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali regime. For over twenty-three years, a corrupt security apparatus allowed Ben Ali to rule the country with an iron fist. The public avoided criticizing the regime or even mentioning Ben Ali's name for fear of reprisal. During the Tunisian revolution, protesters demonstrated their anger at the security institutions that perpetuated the regime's hold on power by attacking police stations. With the fall of the regime, Tunisians began to publicly voice their opinions on previously forbidden issues such as politics, corruption, and police abuse.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention and Reform
Political Geography:: Arabia and Tunisia

38650. Do Drone Strikes in Yemen Undermine US Security Objectives?

Author:: Danya Greenfield and Stefanie A. Hausheer
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In a May 2013 speech outlining his counterterrorism policy and addressing the use of drone strikes, President Barack Obama insisted that the United States uses the "highest standard" of criteria when selecting targets. The United States, the president said, only strikes "terrorists who pose a continuing and imminent threat to the American people...and before any strike is taken, there must be near-certainty that no civilians will be killed or injured." More than a year later, the administration seems to continue brazenly violating its own standards while also failing to fulfill its pledge to increase transparency and oversight with respect to the use of drone strikes. The administration has yet to explain how strikes such as the December 2013 attack on a wedding convoy in Yemen, which resulted in fourteen deaths and twenty-two injuries, could possibly fall within the guidelines laid out in the president's speech. US drone strikes in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and elsewhere raise similar questions.
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States

38651. Diplomacy for a Diffuse World

Author:: Peter Engelke, Roxanne Cabral, Katherine Brown, and Anne Terman Wedner
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Globalization, urbanization, and fragmentation are reshaping the world order by diffusing power throughout the global system. In order to remain relevant, American diplomacy will require a fundamental retooling that includes a more deliberate and serious engagement with novel forces and actors. America's leaders must recognize that these forces and actors not only are buffeting foreign nations but also are at work within the United States itself, strengthening the capabilities of American cities, communities, individuals, and networks to reach beyond US borders. Building a stronger partnership between the federal government's diplomatic community and these nonstate actors will enhance America's leadership and standing around the world.
Political Geography:: United States and America

38652. ISIS War Game: The Coming Stalemate

Author:: Bilal Y. Saab and Michael S. Tyson
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: On September 10, 2014, President Barack Obama delivered a speech outlining the administration's strategy to "degrade and ultimately destroy" the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, also known as ISIS. Achieving success requires four key elements, Obama said: a systematic campaign of airstrikes, increased support to allied forces fighting ISIS on the ground, robust counterterrorism to prevent ISIS attacks against the West including the US homeland, and continued provision of humanitarian assistance to innocent civilians. Airstrikes against ISIS targets in Iraq and recently in Syria have supported the first, third, and fourth elements of this strategy.
Political Geography:: United States and Iraq

38653. Democratized Destruction: Global Security in the Hacker Era

Author:: James Hasik and Mark Revor
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The democratized innovations of today's hacker era have a dark side: democratized destruction, underwritten by advanced information technologies, and spread by highly empowered individuals with very undemocratic intent. The breadth, pace, diffusion, and potential for concealment of these advances may be creating new vulnerabilities for the same technologically advanced societies that spawned them. Fortunately, the United States and its allies have substantial experience with this mode of innovation and unique resources for developing countermeasures. In "Democratized Destruction: Global Security in the Hacker Era," Brent Scowcroft Center for International Security Nonresident Senior Fellow James Hasik and Lieutenant Colonel Mark Revor, a 2013-2014 Marine Corps fellow at the Atlantic Council, recommend three courses of action: leveraging capital investments with low marginal cost extensions; monitoring the global progress of open innovation; and supporting domestic grassroots developments in information-intensive systems.

38654. NATO's Cyber Capabilities: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow

Author:: Jason Healey and Klara Tothova Jordan
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: NATO's central missions of collective defense and cooperative security must be as effective in cyberspace as in the other domains of air, land, sea, and space.

38655. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Big Opportunities for Small Business

Author:: Garrett Workman
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: With Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations underway, there is an increasing focus on the prospective economic benefits and potential policy changes resulting from an ambitious agreement. While modernizing trade rules will benefit businesses of all sizes on both sides of the Atlantic, TTIP will be especially critical for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that often struggle with the numerous administrative, legal, and regulatory barriers to exporting that slow down trade and hinder innovation. Given their limited financial and human resources, small businesses stand to gain exponentially from a transatlantic agreement that streamlines regulatory and customs processes.
Political Geography:: United States, America, and Europe

38656. Confidence-Building Measures in Cyberspace: A Multistakeholder Approach for Stability and Security

Author:: Jason Healey, Klara Tothova Jordan, John C. Mallery, and Nathaniel V. V. Youd
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Confidence-building measures (CBMs) are an instrument of international politics, negotiated by and applied between states to strengthen international peace and security by reducing and eliminating the causes of mistrust, fear, misunderstanding, and miscalculations that states have about the military activities of other states.
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and America

38657. The Shale Revolution and the New Geopolitics of Energy

Author:: Robert A. Manning
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The shale revolution, the combination of computer-aided horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing known as “fracking,” already has had a profound multidimensional impact. After the breakthroughs in information technology (IT) and biotechnology, shale may be the most transformational technological change so far in the twenty-first century. This report argues that shale gas and tight oil has: begun to radically shift global energy markets and redraw the global energy map, forty years after the Arab oil embargo; dramatically shifted the outlook for US energy security and our national strategic calculus; altered geopolitics, making the Western Hemisphere—Canada, the United States, Mexico, Brazil—the new center of gravity for oil and gas production; turned the future of oil debate on its head; debate about whether or not “peak oil” has been reached is over. Now the issue is whether or not we are approaching “peak demand;” has altered market economics to slow the deployment of wind, solar, and nuclear energy and a transition to a post-petroleum economy; yet also reduced US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing coal as a source of electricity; strengthened the US economy with cheap gas prices triggering a resurgence in US manufacturing and; potentially repositioned the United States vis-à-vis the Middle East and Asia.
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Canada, Asia, Brazil, and Mexico

38658. Online Voting: Rewards and Risks

Author:: Peter Haynes
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In a world of near-infinite computing power, ubiquitous connectivity, cloud-based services, and big data, the fact that the vast majority of countries holds elections using paper ballots appears an anomaly.
Topic:: Government, Science and Technology, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States

38659. The Future of US Extended Deterrence in Asia to 2025

Author:: Robert A. Manning
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: US extended deterrence in Asia, involving the full spectrum from nuclear to conventional capabilities, faces an array of new challenges. Indeed, a dynamic, volatile, and more complex security landscape in the Asia-Pacific and globally has heightened regional security concerns and given deterrence and strategic stability a renewed importance in the period extending to 2025.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: United States, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

38660. Mexico's Energy Reform: Mexico "Ready to Launch"

Author:: David L. Goldwyn, Neil R. Brown, and Megan Reilly Cayten
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Mexico is poised for an energy renaissance. It has ample reserves of oil and natural gas, experience in energy production, promising economic fundamentals, and industrial expertise. In recent decades, Mexico has suffered from declining oil production, insufficient gas supply, and high electricity prices.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Oil, and Reform
Political Geography:: Mexico

38661. Avoiding the Blind Alley: China's Economic Overhaul and Its Global Implications

Author:: Daniel H. Rosen
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: PRESIDENT XI JINPING ANNOUNCED a sweeping overhaul for China's economy in November 2013, with pledges to make market forces decisive, treat homegrown and foreign investors with the same laws and regulations, and change the mission statement of the government. The reform program, known as the Decisions plan and presented at the Communist Party leadership's Third Plenum meeting, is comprehensive and marks a turning point in China's modern history. The degree of boldness also indicates that after 35 years of world-beating economic performance, China's development model is obsolete and in need of urgent, not gradual, replacement. To justify the risks, President Xi quoted an impassioned plea for policy modernization by his predecessor Deng Xiaoping: the only way to avoid a dead end – a blind alley – is to deepen reform and opening both at home and with the world.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Reform
Political Geography:: China

38662. Implementing Structural Reforms in Abenomics: How to Reduce the Cost of Doing Business in Japan

Author:: Jamal Ibrahim Haidar and Takeo Hoshi
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Improving the environment for business is an important part of the growth strategy of Abenomics. As the KPI (Key Performance Indicator) for this effort, the Abe Administration aims to improve Japan's rank in the World Bank Doing Business Ranking from the current #15 among high-income OECD countries to one of the top three. This paper clarifies what it takes for Japan to be among top three countries in terms of ease of doing business. By looking at details of the World Bank Doing Business ranking, we identify various reforms that Japan could implement to improve the ranking. Then, we classify the reforms into four groups depending on whether the reform requires legal changes and whether the reform is likely to face strong political resistance. By just doing the reforms that do not require legal changes and are not likely to face strong political opposition, Japan can improve the ranking to 9th. To be in the top 3, Japan would need to implement all the reforms except for those that require changing the laws and are likely to face strong political resistance, even under the unrealistic assumption that the other countries do not reduce the cost of doing business. Thus, in order to be one of the top three countries among OECD countries in terms of ease of doing business, Japan would most likely need to carry out all the reforms identified in this paper.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Japan

38663. Countering Sanctions: The Unequal Geographic Impact of Economic Sanctions in North Korea

Author:: Yong Suk Lee
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This paper examines how an autocratic regime domestically counters the impact of economic sanctions. A stylized model predicts that, as long as non-compliance is not too costly, the autocrat redistributes resources to the more valuable urban area when sanctions increase. Empirically, I examine the case of North Korea. I use the satellite night lights data to create average luminosity for each one minute by one minute cell between 1992 and 2010. I construct a sanctions index that varies based on the international response to North Korea's nuclear pursuit. I find that sanctions increase the urban-rural luminosity gap by 1.07%. Consistent with urban elite capture, Pyongyang, the center of power is best shielded from sanctions followed by province capitals. The hinterlands respond: luminosity near the Chinese border increases with sanctions. Sanctions that fail to change the leader's behavior increase inequality at a cost to the already marginalized hinterlands.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Sanctions, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:: South Korea and North Korea

38664. The Next Epoch in Cloud Computing: Implications for Integrated Research and Innovation Strategy

Author:: John Zysman, Kenji E. Kushida, Jonathan Murray, and Patrick Scaglia
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The advent of Cloud computing as the new underlying global infrastructure of computing presents distinctive new opportunities and challenges for Europe. Cloud computing is transforming computing resources from a scarce to an abundant resource, driving a wave of commoditization in previously high-end software and hardware. For Europe to gain independence from US-based global scale Cloud providers, our view is that it needs to move towards a distributed model of computing with federated governance. Distributed Cloud means the distribution of computation close to the geographic location of the data and the users, as opposed to the centralized model of today. Our research and innovation strategy recommendations reflect this view.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Infrastructure, and Governance
Political Geography:: Europe

38665. Cloud Computing: From Scarcity to Abundance

Author:: John Zysman, Kenji Kushida, and Jonathan Murray
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:: Cloud Computing is a revolution in computing architecture, transforming not only the “where” (location) of computing, but also the “how” (the manner in which software is produced and the tools available for the automation of business processes). Cloud Computing emerged as we transitioned from an era in which underlying computing resources were both scarce and expensive to an era in which the same resources were cheap and abundant. There are many ways to implement Cloud architectures, and most people are familiar with public cloud services such as Gmail or Facebook. However, much of the impact of Cloud Computing on the economy will be driven by how large enterprises implement Cloud architectures for their own private use. Lead users are already combining private and public computing resources into new hybrid delivery models. Cloud architectures are also poised to disrupt the Information Technology (IT) industry, broadly conceived, with a new wave of commoditization. Offerings optimized for high performance in an era of scarcity are giving way to loosely coupled, elastically managed architectures making use of cheap, abundant computing resources today.
Topic:: Markets, Science and Technology, and Infrastructure

38666. Strategies and Public Propositions in Games of Institutional Change, Comparative Historical Cases

Author:: Masahiko Aoki
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This paper argues that game-theoretic approach is incomplete for institutional studies, because comparative institutions as well as institutional changes involve a possibility of multiple equilibria. In order to solve the common knowledge problem, this paper proposes to unify game theoretic thought with an analysis of public representations/propositions to summarize salient features of the recursive/emergent states of play. From this perspective the paper tries to reconcile differences in three accounts of institutions, endogenous outcome, exogenous rules and constitutive rules accounts. Then, the unified approach is applied to comparative and historical cases of the Tokugawa Japan and the Qing China. Specifically it sheds new light into the coalitional nature of Tokugawa Baku-Han regime nesting the fundamental Samurai-village pact as well as the tendency toward decentralization of political violence and fiscal competence to the provincial level toward the end of the Qing China. From these new historical interpretations, endogenous strategic forces and associated public propositions leading to institutional changes through the Meiji Restoration and the Xinhai Revolution are identified and compared.
Topic:: Nationalism, Political Theory, and Governance
Political Geography:: China

38667. 2014 Financial Security Summit: Rapporteur's Report

Author:: Colby Farber
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The 2014 Financial Security Summit examined how policymakers, the financial services industry, advocates, and academics can advance new policies and products to make it easier for households to build financial security and to reinvigorate the American Dream.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States

38668. Adapting to Plenty: Effects of the Oil and Gas Boom

Author:: Bill White and Leonard Coburn
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The evolution from energy scarcity to abundance in the United States creates dislocations. Technology, infrastructure, laws, regulations, trade flows, and environmental and security policies developed during American energy deficits must be adapted to cope with its new energy prosperity. Significant improvements in oil and gas technology are leading to production increases outpacing projections. A need for infrastructure development follows energy production, necessitating adaptations. Laws passed in the 1970s during times of energy disruptions require reconsideration in a period of relative plenty. The shift of the United States and Canada from an oil and gas importing region to an exporting region has enormous global implications. Policies need to be readjusted in light of new realities, and the effects of the oil and gas boom in North America will require new thinking by governments, industry and consumers.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: United States and North America

38669. Impact Inventing: Strengthening the Ecosystem for Invention-Based Entrepreneurship in Emerging Markets

Author:: Alexander N. Pan
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: Over the past decade, a growing segment of social entrepreneurs and small and growing businesses(SGBs) has emerged that seeks to utilize the power of invention to create products and companies that improve the lives of people living in poverty around the world. We call this class of entrepreneur-looking to develop and disseminate tangible products that will be manufactured and sold at high volumes via market mechanisms-an invention-based entrepreneur.1 ANDE believes that invention-based entrepreneurs are supported or impeded by a number of environmental factors, or the entrepreneurial ecosystem in which they work. While ANDE and our members have made significant progress toward strengthening these entrepreneurial ecosystems in emerging markets, invention-based entrepreneurs have a unique set of needs that differentiates them from typical SGBs. Consequently, we believe we can improve the ecosystem to support the growth of this industry, and thereby unleash the full potential impact of these invention-based entrepreneurs.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States and South Africa

38670. Responding to Trends in the U.S. Electricity Sector

Author:: Dave Grossman (Rapporteur) and Sue Tierney, Chair
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: New federal regulations, changes in fuel prices and trends, the expansion of distributed energy resources, declines in U.S. electricity consumption, and advances in technology are all spurring utilities and regulators to respond and adapt. Discussions of the challenges and opportunities these forces present for the U.S. electricity sector – as well as how the industry and its regulators are adapting – formed the heart of the 2014 Aspen Institute Energy Policy Forum. This report summarizes and organizes some of the key insights from those discussions.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: United States

38671. The Affordable Care Act: Affording Two-Generation Approaches Health

Author:: Alan Weil, Shayla Regmi, and Carrie Hanlon
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The Affordable Care Act (ACA), signed into law by President Barack Obama on March 23, 2010, represents the largest transformation of American health policy in more than a generation. The law redefines how health insurance functions, significantly expands health insurance coverage, and accelerates changes already underway in how health care services are organized and delivered to patients. This transformation creates new opportunities for improving the health and well-being of vulnerable children and their parents. Ascend at the Aspen Institute promotes a two-generation approach to creating opportunity for vulnerable families. In Ascend's two-generation framework, health is an element of family and child well-being in its own right and a supportive factor in achieving the educational, economic, and social assets families need to thrive. This paper describes the changes in health care effected by the ACA and explores the unfinished business of developing a health care system that supports two-generation approaches.
Topic:: Health, Human Welfare, Privatization, and Governance
Political Geography:: America

38672. Fragmentation and Concentration in the New Digital Environment

Author:: Richard P. Adler
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: In 1987, back at the dawn of the Internet age, two studies were published that provided perceptive looks at the evolution of electronic networks and the impact that they would likely have on the way business is conducted in the U.S. and globally. Both studies concluded that rapidly evolving information technologies were helping to break down old hierarchical business structures in favor of new, more decentralized models of economic activity.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Communications, and Mass Media
Political Geography:: United States

38673. Report of the Ocean Community Strategy Roundtable

Author:: David Monsma
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: In 2013, the Aspen Institute published The Ocean Community Report, a study based on a 2012 roundtable discussion with oceans leaders at Fort Baker, California on the state of ocean conservation, as well as two research papers on marine protection advocacy, policy and management.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Maritime Commerce, and Water
Political Geography:: California

38674. The Weightless Marketplace: Coming to Terms with Innovative Payment Systems, Digital Currencies and Online Labor Markets

Author:: David Bollier
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The structure and character of commerce has changed dramatically since the arrival of the World Wide Web and various digital technologies, particularly mobile phones and large, interconnected databases. Consumers now have much greater market power and choice. Markets can more easily scale, often globally. Co-production and fluid producer/consumer interactions are routine. Transactions themselves have become far cheaper and more easily consummated.
Topic:: Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, Communications, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

38675. Was the ECB's Comprehensive Assessment up to standard?

Author:: Willem Pieter De Groen
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The Comprehensive Assessment conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) representsa considerable step forward in enhancing transparency ineuro-area banks' balance sheets. The most notable progress since the previous European stress test has been the hamonisation of the definition of non-performing loans and other concepts as well as uncovering hidden losses, which resulted in a €34 billion aggregate capital-chargenet of tax. Despite this tightening,most banks were able to meet the 5.5% common equity tier 1 (CET1) threshold applied in the test, whichsuggests that the large majority of the euro-area banks have improvedtheir financial position sufficiently to no longer constrainthem in financing the economy.Our own estimation based on the detailed results, however,provide a more nuanced picture, with a large numberof the banks still highly leveraged and in many cases unable to meet the regulatory capital requirementsthat will be introduced in the coming years underthe adverse stress test scenario.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Global Recession
Political Geography:: Europe

38676. The EU's Enlargement Agenda — Credibility at stake?

Author:: Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: It is a damning reflection of our times that one of the EU's most successful foreign policy achievements has never been under so much criticism. During the recent elections for the European Parliament, populist eurosceptic parties were in the forefront of those campaigning against the EU's enlargement agenda. Their attempts at equating further enlargement with the dangers of increased immigration from Turkey, the Western Balkans and even other EU member states were bolstered by the leaders of some long-standing member states, such as the UK, openly calling for restrictions on freedom of movement — one of the fundamental pillars of the EU.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Balkans

38677. Does ASEM work?

Author:: Jacques Pelkmans and Weinian Hu
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This CEPS Policy Brief is based on a larger study for the EEAS and European Commission, written by the same authors in the run-up of the Milan ASEM summit of 16-17 October 2014. The main idea of the study is to assess whether ASEM works and how, by verifying the factual evidence in detail. After all, ASEM has no institutions, no budget and no treaty, whilst dialogues and a loose improvement over time in Asia-Europe relations refer to process much more than genuine 'results'. The stocktaking covers all ASEM activities since the 2006 Helsinki summit. Summit and foreign ministers' declarations and ASEM calendar of activities (and interviews) are used to trace ASEM activities in the three ASEM pillars (political, economic, and peoples-to-peoples/cultural). All the 'regular' ASEM meetings at ministerial and other levels (many of which are only known to relatively few) have been mapped. Also the ASEM working methods, based on the 2000AECF framework and many subsequent initiatives, have been scrutinised, including whether they are actually implemented or not or partially. Such methods refer to how to work together in areas of cooperation (beyond the typical ASEM dialogue), organisation, coordination and ASEM visibility.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:: Europe and Singapore

38678. Russia's Punitive Trade Policy Measures towards Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

Author:: Michael Emerson, Denis Cenusa, Tamara Kovziridse, and Veronika Movchan
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: While EU and US sanctions against Russia over its aggression in Ukraine, and Russia's counter-sanctions, are much discussed due to their evident political significance, less attention has been given to Russia's punitive sanctions against the three Eastern European states – Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia – that have signed with the EU Association Agreements (AA), which include Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) provisions. This paper therefore documents these trade policy restrictions and embargoes imposed by Russia, and provides some first indications of their impact. The immediate impact on trade flows, especially for agri-food products, has been substantial, albeit with some leakage through Belarus. The main instrument for the Russian measures has been allegations of non-conformity with Russian technical standards, although the correlation of these allegations with movements in Russia's geopolitical postures makes it obvious that the Russian technical agencies are following political guidelines dressed up as scientific evidence. These measures also push the three states into diversifying their trade marketing efforts in favour of the EU and other world markets, with Georgia already having taken significant steps in this direction, since in its case the Russian sanctions date back to 2006. In the case of Ukraine, Russia's threat to cancel CIS free trade preferences infiltrated trilateral talks between the EU, Ukraine and Russia, leading on 12 September to their proposed postponement until the end of 2015 of the 'provisional' implementation of a large part of the AA/DCFTA. This was immediately followed on 16 September by ratification of the AA/DCFTA by both the Rada in Kyiv and the European Parliament, which will lead to its full and definitive entry into force when the 28 EU member states have also ratified it. However Putin followed the day after with a letter to Poroshenko making an abusive interpretation of the 12 September understanding.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Power Politics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia

38679. Financing Terror Bit by Bit

Author:: Aaron Brantly
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Terrorism is highly dependent on cash flows for the purchase of everything from munitions and supplies to domains and pamphlets. Traditionally, one of the more challenging aspects of organizing international terrorist activities is rooted in financial transactions. The transfer of money around the world has, in the last decade, fundamentally changed the way terrorist organizations raise money to support their activities. Digital currencies like e-gold, Bitcoin, Peercoin, and Dodgecoin provide complex yet efficient mechanisms for the transfer of funds, as well as the decentralized collection of donations in a more anonymous manner than conventional banking transactions. There is sufficient evidence to suggest that terrorists are considering and, in limited instances, using digital currencies such as Bitcoin to finance activities. While these tools have gained in popularity, in recent years their expansion into various terrorist organizations has been slow and deliberate and has not matched pace with transnational criminal uses of these same technologies.
Political Geography:: United States

38680. Full Text Issue

Author:: Abdul Basit
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The rise of ISIS-like terrorist groups in the Syria and Iraq conflicts and their ability to attract foreign fighters has created new challenges for global peace. While the return of these foreign fighters to their home countries is a threat to be monitored, it is imperative to understand the factors luring them to fight in Syria and Iraq to formulate counter-strategies. The desire to live in and defend the so-called 'Islamic state', participate in the 'end times battle', sectarian motivations and the search for an Islamic identity are some of the factors attracting foreign fighters to Iraq and Syria.
Topic:: Islam
Political Geography:: Iraq and Syria

38681. Contesting Buddhist Narratives: Democratization, Nationalism, and Communal Violence in Myanmar

Author:: Matthew J. Walton and Susan Hayward.
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: For the past few years, Myanmar's political transition has been hampered by violence between Buddhists and Muslims. A nation with an ethnically Burman and religiously Buddhist majority, the population also comprises a large minority of Muslims and members of other religions, and includes many different ethnic groups. As such, Myanmar society is complex and innately plural.
Topic:: Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Religion, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: Burma and Myanmar

38682. The Asia-Pacific Cooperation Agenda: Moving from Regional Cooperation Toward Global Leadership,

Author:: Charles E. Morrison
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In the past quarter-century Asia has seen vast changes, including increased economic growth, integration, and liberalization. The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) process, now marking its 25th anniversary, facilitated these changes through its institution of the first regular meetings of ministers and then leaders. But what role should APEC play in the future? With a continuing diffusion of power, what was once hailed as an imminent "Asian century" is much more likely to be a global one. This international system, however, will have a trans-Pacific core with much of the economic power and potential to provide global leadership for the further development of international norms, rules, and cooperation. Thus, we may be able to refer to an "Asia-Pacific century." Two questions arise: Is North America, with a relatively small share of global population and a declining share of global world product, still relevant? Will the nations on the two sides of the Pacific really be able to use their power effectively to assume global leadership? The answer to the first of these is "yes," and to the second, "it depends."
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia

38683. Built-Up Area Change Analysis in Hanoi Using Support Vector Machine Classification of Landsat Multi-Temporal Image Stacks

Author:: Jefferson Fox, Duong Nong, Miguel Castrence, Tomoaki Miura, James Spencer, and Qi Chen
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Vietnam is experiencing one of the greatest urban transitions over the last two decades after the embankment of "Doi Moi" policy in 1986. The urban transition is vividly manifested in social, economic and physical aspects. While the urbanization can boost the industrialization and modernization goals of the country, it can cause adverse impact on natural environment as well as society and economy. To support a sound urban development plan, it is important that data and analysis on urban built-up areas are accurate and timely available. In this study, the Support Vector Machine Classification Algorithm (SVM) was applied to the multi-temporal image stacks of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) from 1993 to 2010 to quantify the changes of built-up areas over three time periods, 1993-2001, 2001-2006, and 2006-2010 and across twelve buffer zones. Our SVM classification algorithm has produced a highly accurate map of land use/land cover change with the overall accuracy of 95%. The study showed that most of the urban expansion occurred in the periods 2001-2006 and 2006–2010. The analysis was strengthened by the analysis of population census and other socio-economic figures. Through out this study, an implicit correlation between the urban growth, the trend of spatial expansion and other relevant geographic and socio-economic factors can be proposed. Result of this study would allow urban planners and decision makers to timely evaluate and adjust accordingly the urban growth and be aware of the sustainable usage of the invaluable natural lands and other environmental, social and economical problems.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: Vietnam

38684. Quantify Spatiotemporal Patterns of Urban Growth in Hanoi Using Time Series Spatial Metrics and Urbanization Gradient Approach

Author:: Jefferson Fox, Duong Nong, Tomoaki Miura, James Spencer, Qi Chen, and Christopher Lepczyk
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The year of 2010 was the first time in human civilization that the urban population had reached 3.5 billion people or crossed the 50% mark and continued to grow with no sign of slowing down especially for developing countries in Africa and asia (UN,2011). In 1800, only few percent of the world population lived in urban areas, but quickly increased to 14% in 1900 and then 30% in 1950 (platt,1994). Clearly, urban areas have become one of our primary habitats; therefore, urban sustainability is becoming more important than ever.
Political Geography:: Africa and Asia

38685. Economic Analysis of Duck Production Household Farm Level in the Context of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1 in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Author:: Chinh C. Tran and John F. Yanagida
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Occurrence of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza subtype H5N1 usually results in the complete loss of the producer's entire flock due to high mortality rate and stamping out conducted to contain the virus. This study explores the expected economic impacts of HPAI H5N1 on smallholder duck producers in the Red River Delta of Vietnam. A conceptual model is developed to describe how a producer responds at each week of duck production to maximize profit and evaluate expected profits/losses of the producer in light of HPAI H5N1. The results suggests that in the case of no disease occurrence, the optimal time to sell ducks is at week 10 of the production cycle when ducks reach the age of 8 weeks. Maximum profit gained is US$805 for a producer with an average flock size of 794 ducks. However, the producer would suffer serious losses once the disease occurs. The expected investment loss is far higher than the maximum profit received at each production cycle and is estimated to be 3 times higher.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Infectious Diseases, and Food
Political Geography:: Vietnam

38686. Policy Implications for Prevention of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1 in Conjunction with Risk Factors in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Author:: Jefferson Fox, Chinh C. Tran, John F. Yanagida, and Sumeet Saksena
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The challenge is to develop the vaccination program that is more successful in containing and preventing the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza subtype H5N1 from recurrence in the Red River Delta, Vietnam and reducing vaccination costs. This study addresses the tradeoff between the current policy which implements an annual two-round vaccination for the entire geographical area of the Delta and an alternative policy which involves more frequent vaccination in higher probability areas for the disease occurrence within the Delta. The ex-ante analysis framework is used to identify the location of higher probability areas for the alternative policy and evaluate the accuracy of the analysis. The efficacy and cost analysis of vaccination programs are then implemented for the tradeoff between the current and the alternative policies. The ex-ante analysis suggests that the focus areas for the alternative vaccination program include 1137 communes, corresponding to 50.6% of total communes in the Delta and mostly located in the coastal areas to the east and south of Hanoi. The efficacy and cost analyses suggests that the alternative policy would be more successful in reducing the rate of disease occurrence and the costs of vaccination as compared to the current policy.
Political Geography:: Vietnam and United Nations

38687. Perceived Risk of Avian Influenza in Poultry Varies with Urbanization in Vietnam

Author:: Jefferson Fox, Melissa L. Finucane, Sumeet Saksena, Nghiem Tuyen, James H. Spencer, Nguyen Lam, Trinh Dinh Thau, Tran Duc Vien, and Nancy D. Lewis
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is an important public health concern because of its potential to cause widespread morbidity and mortality in humans and poultry and associated devastating economic losses. In this study we examined how perceptions of and response to the risk of HPAI in poultry vary across communes/wards in the north of Vietnam at different levels of urbanization (rural, transitional, urban). We conducted a quantitative household survey with 1073 respondents. Results suggested that the perceived risk of HPAI in poultry was highest in transitional and rural settings. Respondents in these settings were more likely than respondents in urban settings to agree that the process of change (in urbanization, agricultural practices, or natural habitat) increased the likelihood of an outbreak of HPAI in poultry. Compared with others, respondents in transitional areas reported that they do less planning and perceive vaccines to be more effective, while respondents in rural areas reported less perceived ability to separate infected poultry from others. We also found that the inability to respond is not necessarily because of an inability to perceive change but because, rapid and extensive change poses different challenges for poultry management as communes move from rural to transitional to urban settings. Our results suggest that public and animal health campaigns could be tailored in a way that recognizes the needs of poultry raisers in different settings.
Topic:: Health, Infectious Diseases, and Urbanization
Political Geography:: Asia and Vietnam

38688. Role of Urbanization, Land-Use Diversity, and Livestock Intensification in Zoonotic Emerging Infectious Diseases

Author:: Jefferson Fox, Duong Nong, Miguel Castrence, James Spencer, Sumeet Saksena, Nguyen Lam, Tran Duc Vien, Michael Epprecht, Chinh Tran, Melissa Finucane, and Bruce Wilco
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) continue to significantly threaten human and animal health. While there has been some progress in identifying underlying proximal driving forces and causal mechanisms of disease emergence, the role of distal factors is most poorly understood. This article focuses on analyzing the statistical association between highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and urbanization, land-use diversity and poultry intensification. A special form of the urban transition—peri-urbanization—was hypothesized as being associated with 'hot-spots' of disease emergence. Novel metrics were used to characterize these distal risk factors. Our models, which combined these newly proposed risk factors with previously known natural and human risk factors, had a far higher predictive performance compared to published models for the first two epidemiological waves in Viet Nam. We found that when relevant risk factors are taken into account, urbanization is generally not a significant independent risk factor. However, urbanization spatially combines other risk factors leading to peri-urban places being the most likely 'hot-spots'. The work highlights that peri-urban areas have highest levels of chicken density, duck and geese flock size diversity, fraction of land under rice, fraction of land under aquaculture compared to rural and urban areas. Land-use diversity, which has previously never been studied in the context of HPAI H5N1, was found to be a significant risk factor. Places where intensive and extensive forms of poultry production are collocated were found to be at greater risk
Topic:: Health, Infectious Diseases, and Urbanization
Political Geography:: United States and Asia

38689. From Catching Up to Forging Ahead? China's Prospects in Semiconductors

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: China's new strategy to upgrade its semiconductor industry (outlined in the "Guidelines to Promote National Integrated Circuit Industry Development," June 24, 2014), seeks to move from catching-up to forging ahead in semiconductors, by strengthening simultaneously China's integrated circuit (IC) design industry and domestic IC foundry services.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: China and Asia

38690. Bringing Back the Palestinian Refugee Question

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Palestinian refugee question, like the refugees themselves, has been politically marginalised and demoted on the diplomatic agenda. Yet, whenever the diplomatic process comes out of its current hiatus, the Palestinian leadership will be able to negotiate and sell a deal only if it wins the support or at least acquiescence of refugees – because if it does not, it will not bring along the rest of the Palestinian population. Refugees currently feel alienated from the Palestinian Authority (PA), which they regard with suspicion; doubt the intentions of Palestinian negotiators, whom they do not believe represent their interests; and, as one of the more impoverished Palestinian groups, resent the class structure that the PA and its economic policies have produced. As a result of their isolation, refugees in the West Bank and Gaza are making demands for services and representation that are reinforcing emerging divisions within Palestinian society and politics. There arguably are ways to address refugee needs, both diplomatic and practical, that are not mutually exclusive with core Israeli interests. This report examines what could be done on the Palestinian side to mitigate the risk that the Palestinian refugee question derails a future negotiation.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Refugee Issues, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

38691. Myanmar: The Politics of Rakhine State

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The situation in Rakhine State contains a toxic mixture of historical centre-periphery tensions, serious intercommunal and inter-religious conflict with minority Muslim communities, and extreme poverty and under-development. This led to major violence in 2012 and further sporadic outbreaks since then. The political temperature is high, and likely to increase as Myanmar moves closer to national elections at the end of 2015. It represents a significant threat to the overall success of the transition, and has severely damaged the reputation of the government when it most needs international support and investment. Any policy approach must start from the recognition that there will be no easy fixes or quick solutions. The problems faced by Rakhine State are rooted in decades of armed violence, authoritarian rule and state-society conflict. This crisis has affected the whole of the state and all communities within it. It requires a sustained and multi-pronged response, as well as critical humanitarian and protection interventions in the interim.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Post Colonialism, Religion, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Asia and Myanmar

38692. Mali : dernière chance à Alger

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Alors que le Nord du Mali connait un inquiétant regain de violence, les négociations de paix à Alger constituent une chance unique de sortie de crise. Mais après deux mois de discussions, la paix semble encore loin. Le gouvernement malien et les groupes armés engagés dans les négociations peinent à trouver un terrain d'entente. Des groupes influents et radicaux qui manquent à la table des négociations sont tentés de faire dérailler le processus par la violence. La résolution du conflit passe par l'articulation complexe d'intérêts divergents qui touchent à la sécurité du Sahara, à la nature de l'Etat malien et aux équilibres locaux entre des communautés divisées. Face aux affrontements armés, la tentation est grande d'aller vite et de signer un accord à minima garantissant la sécurité à court terme. La précipitation est mauvaise conseillère. Il faut se donner les moyens et le temps de construire les fondements d'une paix durable.
Topic:: Political Violence, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa

38693. The Cyber Extremism Orbital Pathways Model

Author:: Omer Ali Saifudeen
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The starting premise of this study is that internet-based communications possess unique characteristics that warrant the need to have a discrete pathway model to explain online radicalisation. This online radicalisation pathway model would especially apply to the growing communities of young netizens whose socio-psychological makeup is shaping a ―new normal‖ in the way we exchange information and interact. The proposed Cyber Extremism Orbital Pathways Model (CEOP) describes how online cognitive radicalisation can move towards real-world violent extremism. The model also elucidates the multitude of competing forces in cyberspace that promote or impede such radicalisation and what this means for online counter-radicalisation strategies. The CEOP model is based on inferences made from content and discourse analysis of extremist narratives on the internet and current studies about internet-based communications. The research took into account distinctive factors that made internet-based messaging more persuasive and this includes the effects of crowdsourcing. Finally, the CEOP model suggests how the same persuasive communication strategies used on the internet by extremists can be conversely used to counter online radicalisation.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Science and Technology, Communications, Sociology, and Youth Culture

38694. La Tunisie des frontières (II) : terrorisme et polarisation régionale

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Depuis le soulèvement populaire de décembre-janvier 2010-2011, la Tunisie surmonte avec succès ses crises politiques, mais le pays semble moins disposé à absorber le choc d'attaques jihadistes plus importantes. Malgré le dialogue national qui a fortement réduit les tensions et a fait débuter l'année 2014 sur une touche optimiste, l'inquiétude grandit de nouveau. Cette appréhension peut s'expliquer par la montée des violences à la frontière algérienne, le chaos libyen et l'avancée de l'islamisme radical au Moyen-Orient, mais également par le discours antiterroriste ambiant. Caisse de résonnance des conflits qui agitent la région, le pays a besoin d'aborder la question terroriste de manière sereine et dépolitisée, malgré les enjeuxinternationaux. La lutte contre le terrorisme et la lutte contre le crime organisé sont indissociables. Le gouvernement gagnerait ainsi à accompagner ses mesures sécuritaires par des mesures économiques et sociales destinées à ramener les populations frontalières dans le giron de l'Etat.
Topic:: Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Arabia

38695. Marijuana Policy in Colorado

Author:: Jeffrey Miron
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: In November 2012, voters in the states of Colorado and Washington approved ballot initiatives that legalized marijuana for recreational purposes. Alaska, Oregon, and the District of Columbia are scheduled to consider similar measures in the fall of 2014, and other states may follow suit in the fall of 2016.
Topic:: War on Drugs, Social Movement, and Law
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, and Colombia

38696. Review of Greenlight Pinellas

Author:: Randal O'Toole
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Under its “Greenlight Pinellas” proposal, the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority (PSTA), which serves Pinellas County, FL, wants to switch its major funding source from a property tax to a sales tax at a rate that will more than double its local tax revenues, and use the added money to build a 24-mile light-rail line and expand bus service. This proposal is extremely and unnecessarily expensive given that buses can provide a superior service to light rail, carrying more passengers more comfortably to more destinations at a far lower cost.
Topic:: Infrastructure
Political Geography:: United States

38697. The Role of Mortgage Finance in Financial (In)Stability

Author:: Mark A. Calabria
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Empirical research on the causes of financial crises has grown in recent decades. Early work, such as that by Kaminsky and Reinhart, helped establish the link between asset prices and banking crises. While this initial research focused on equity prices, subsequent research expanded the analysis to include residential property prices. This subsequent research is briefly reviewed here. After establishing the link between residential property prices and banking crises, I discuss the role of various credit policies, both for their impact on property prices and for the stability of the financial system in the face of declining property prices. The role of specific loan characteristics, such as loan-to-value (LTV), will be discussed first, followed by the role of institutional leverage. Policy recommendations conclude.
Topic:: Debt, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and Governance

38698. Full Text Issue

Author:: Arabinda Acharya
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, leader of ISIS, which is at centre stage of terrorist movements today, claims to be a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad. This is however deeply contested as the information on him is mostly from various online sources, the genealogy is unverifiable, and there are inconsistencies in publically shared information. A review of Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi's background and atrocities committed by the group under his leadership also show the contrast between ISIS ideology and the real teachings of Islam.
Topic:: Islam
Political Geography:: Iraq and Syria

38699. Nigeria's Dangerous 2015 Elections: Limiting the Violence

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Nigeria's presidential, parliamentary and state gubernatorial and assembly elections, scheduled for February 2015, will be more contentious than usual. Tensions within and between the two major political parties, competing claims to the presidency between northern and Niger Delta politicians and along religious lines, the grim radical Islamist Boko Haram insurgency and increasing communal violence in several northern states, along with inadequate preparations by the electoral commission and apparent bias by security agencies, suggest the country is heading toward a very volatile and vicious electoral contest. If this violent trend continues, and particularly if the vote is close, marred or followed by widespread violence, it would deepen Nigeria's already grave security and governance crises. The government, its agencies and all other national figures must work urgently to ensure that the vote is not conducted in an explosive situation as this could further destabilise the country.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Ethnic Government, Governance, Sectarian violence, and Self Determination
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

38700. A Coup Ordained? Thailand's Prospects for Stability

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 22 May, for the twelfth time in Thailand's history, the army seized power after months of political turbulence. This is not simply more of the same. The past decade has seen an intensifying cycle of election, protest and government downfall, whether at the hands of the courts or military, revealing deepening societal cleavages and elite rivalries, highlighting competing notions of legitimate authority. A looming royal succession, prohibited by law from being openly discussed, adds to the urgency. A failure to fix this dysfunction risks greater turmoil. The military's apparent prescription – gelding elected leaders in favour of unelected institutions – is more likely to bring conflict than cohesion, given a recent history of a newly empowered electorate. For the army, buyer's remorse is not an option, nor is open-ended autocracy; rather its legacy, and Thailand's stability, depend on its success in forging a path – thus far elusive – both respectful of majoritarian politics and in which all Thais can see their concerns acknowledged.
Topic:: Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:: Asia and Thailand

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS