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  • Author: Jeffrey J. Schott
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: The United States and Brazil are the largest economies in North and South America, respectively. A generation ago, both were relatively closed economies in terms of the proportion of their trade to gross domestic product (GDP), but for sharply different reasons. The US market was highly competitive except for some light manufactures (e.g., textiles, clothing, and footwear) and a few agricultural sectors with high border barriers. By contrast, Brazilian industry was largely uncompetitive and highly subsidized; important commodities like coffee provided the bulk of exports while a large share of the value of most industrial exports was attributable to export subsidies.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Brazil, South America, Latin America, Caribbean
  • Author: Yifan Hu
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: A growing number of countries have anchored their monetary policy to an explicit numerical rate or range of inflation since such an inflation targeting framework was first adopted by New Zealand in 1989. This paper empirically investigates issues associated with inflation targeting using a dataset of 66 countries for the 1980–2000 period.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: New Zealand
  • Author: Marcus Noland
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) or North Korea has been experiencing an ongoing food crisis for more than a decade. A famine in the late 1990s resulted in the deaths of perhaps 600,000 to 1 million people out of a pre-famine population of roughly 22 million. Since then, a combination of humanitarian food aid and development assistance has ameliorated the situation somewhat, but according to the World Food Programme (WFP) and other observers, as of this writing the country is once again on the precipice of another famine.
  • Topic: Human Welfare, Non-Governmental Organization, Nuclear Weapons, Poverty
  • Political Geography: Israel, East Asia, North Korea, Korea
  • Author: C. Fred Bergsten
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: The United States and Japan are the two largest national economies in the world. Since the early 1990s, they have been moving in opposite directions. The United States enjoyed an expansion of record duration from the end of the Gulf War in 1991 until early 2001, growing much faster than any other G-7 country and much faster than it had at any time since the Second World War. Japan's economy, by contrast, has been virtually stagnant since its financial bubble burst in the early 1990s and has clearly experienced its worst performance since its recovery from the ravages of the Pacific War.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Israel, East Asia
  • Author: Gary Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Drawing on the 1989 Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) extended dispute settlement provisions to cover more ground. In fact, within NAFTA there are six dispute settlement systems. NAFTA Chapter 11 is designed to resolve investor-state disputes over property rights; Chapter 14 creates special provisions for handling disputes in the financial sector via the Chapter 20 dispute settlement process (DSP); Chapter 19 establishes a review mechanism to determine whether final antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) decisions made in domestic tribunals are consistent with national laws; and Chapter 20 provides government-to-government consultation, at the ministerial level, to resolve high-level disputes. In addition, the NAFTA partners created interstate dispute mechanisms regarding domestic environmental and labor laws under the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation (NAAEC) and the North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation (NAAL C), respectively. This chapter examines the first four dispute settlement systems; the NAAEC and NAALC systems are evaluated elsewhere in this book.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Latin America, North America
  • Author: J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, Peter K. Schott
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: This paper examines the role of international trade in the reallocation of U.S. manufacturing activity within and across industries from 1977 to 1997. It introduces a new measure of industry exposure to international trade, motivated by the Heckscher-Ohlin model, which focuses on where imports originate rather than their overall level. Results demonstrate that plant survival as well as output and employment growth are negatively associated with the share of industry imports sourced from the world's lowest-wage countries. Within industries, activity is reallocated towards capital-intensive plants. Plants are also more likely to alter their product mix (i.e. switch industries) in response to trade with low-wage countries. Plants altering their product mix switch to industries that are more capital-and skill-intensive.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, Peter K. Schott
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: This paper examines the response of industries and firms to changes in trade costs. Several new firm-level models of international trade with heterogeneous firms predict that industry productivity will rise as trade costs fall due to the reallocation of activity across plants within an industry. Using disaggregated U.S. import data, we create a new measure of trade costs over time and industries. As the models predict, productivity growth is faster in industries with falling trade costs. We also find evidence supporting the major hypotheses of the heterogenous- firm models. Plants in industries with falling trade costs are more likely to die or become exporters. Existing exporters increase their shipments abroad. The results do not apply equally across all sectors but are strongest for industries most likely to be producing horizontally-differentiated tradeable goods.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Brad Setser, Nouriel Roubini
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: The recent debate on reforming the international financial system has focused on the need to improve the sovereign debt restructuring process, and in particular on steps that could limit the risk that litigation could disrupt or delay a sovereign debt restructuring. This debate increasingly has focused on the debt restructuring process in those cases where debt reduction is needed to produce a sustainable debt profile. Less attention has been given to those cases where a sovereign lacks the reserves needed to cover its near-term obligations and, absent international support, has a clear need for debt rescheduling to push out near-term maturities.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Plamen Pantev
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Austrian National Defence Academy
  • Abstract: The Pact of Stability for South East Europe was “born” after the end of the Kosovo crisis in 1999 as a concept of dealing radically with the Balkan instabilities, but also as a geopolitical compromise of the great power centres, involved in the treatment of the post-Yugoslav conflicts. The ripeness of launching this concept and policy had several dimensions: Most of the countries from South East Europe, especially those in transition to democracy and market economy, had a definite strategy of integrating in both the European Union and in NATO; A certain level of regional cooperation had already been reached in the years that preceded the Kosovo crisis in 1999; Influential external powers had already realised that the Balkans need to be treated in the long-term only in a benign way to overcome historical deficiencies and belated modernisation of the economy, society, politics, technology and infrastructure; The disgusting consequences of four post-Yugoslav wars – a development that did not happen to two other former federal structures in Central and Eastern Europe (the Czechoslovak and the Soviet) necessitated a comprehensive and encompassing approach to deal with the plethora of issues in the Balkans, and the EU gradually evolved to the understanding that an additional strategic instrument needs to be launched to cope with the risks and instabilities in the region of South East Europe on the way of its own expansion and of turning the Balkan Peninsula into an integral part of the Union.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, Development, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Balkans
  • Author: Dennis J.D. Sandole
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Austrian National Defence Academy
  • Abstract: My general goal in this presentation, as it is for all of us at this workshop, is to examine the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe: the "pearl of the German presidency of the European Union" adopted in Köln on 10 June 1999, the day that NATO's 78-day bombing campaign of Serbia ceased.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, NATO, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe, Germany, Serbia