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  • Author: Verghese Koithara
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Security and Cooperation
  • Abstract: The partition-bred conflict between India and Pakistan that began in 1947 went into remission in 1971 following India's emphatic victory in war that year. It reemerged in 1989 when serious disaffection in the Kashmir Valley gave Pakistan an opening to promote militancy. This created a dangerous situation because it was about the same time that both Pakistan and India also acquired nuclear weapons. There was a major confrontation between the two countries during March-May 1990. Since then there has been continuous tension with each attempting to coerce the other. In May 1998 both countries carried out several nuclear tests each. A year later, during May-July 1999, the two fought a two-month "limited war" in the Kargil region of Kashmir that caused over 1,200 fatalities. Kargil was a clear effort on Pakistan's part to test the deterrence value of its nuclear weapons. In December 2001 India resorted to an unprecedented military mobilization (Operation Parakram), holding out the clear threat of attacking Pakistan unless the latter stopped its sub-conventional operations.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, South Asia, India
  • Author: Michael May, Zachary Haldeman
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Security and Cooperation
  • Abstract: This report describes the results of some calculations on the effectiveness of penetrating nuclear weapons of yield 1 and 10 kilotons against targets containing biological agents. The effectiveness depends in detail on the construction of the bunkers, on how the bio-agents are stored, on the location of the explosions with respect to the bunkers, the bio-agent containers and the surface of the ground, and on the yield of the explosion and the geology of the explosion site. Completeness of sterilization of the bio-agents is crucial in determining effectiveness. For most likely cases, however, complete sterilization cannot be guaranteed. Better calculations and experiments on specific target types would improve the accuracy of such predictions for those targets, but significant uncertainties regarding actual geology, actual target layouts, and knowledge of the position of the explosion with respect to the target would remain. Aboveground effects of the nuclear explosions, all of which would vent to the surface, are estimated. They include intense local radioactivity and significant fallout, air blast, and seismic effects to kilometers distances. It is likely, however, that casualties from those effects would be less than the casualties that would result from the dispersal of large quantities of bio-agents.
  • Topic: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Tian Jingmei
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Security and Cooperation
  • Abstract: Since the Bush administration took office, and especially since excerpts of the Nuclear Posture Review were released, there have appeared in America some heated arguments about the Bush administration's changes to the Clinton administration's nuclear strategy, what consequences these changes would produce, and what influences they would exert on international and regional security. Different people have different views. The purpose of this working paper is to find solutions to these key issues. The effects of the Bush administration's nuclear strategy on China's security are also discussed.
  • Topic: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Politics
  • Political Geography: China, America, Asia
  • Author: Michael May, Tonya L. Putnam, Dean Wilkening
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Security and Cooperation
  • Abstract: During the week of August 18–23, 2002, the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) of the Institute for International Studies (IIS) at Stanford University hosted four summer studies sponsored by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. One of these studies, the Container Security study, examined how to apply existing technology and resources most effectively to prevent the transport of illicit nuclear materials for use in terrorist activities by means of international commercial shipping.
  • Topic: Security, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Barbara Koremenos
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
  • Abstract: For the past twenty years, the theoretical literature on international cooperation has focused on overarching questions about whether cooperation is possible and how important it is. The seminal contributions of the 1980s increased our theoretical understanding of the possibility of cooperation. Yet we know empirically that cooperation is pervasive. Hundreds of multilateral agreements are signed each year. If we count bilateral agreements as well, the number jumps to thousands. This is not to say that cooperation is easy. In fact, given the challenges of successful cooperation, it is time for the theoretical literature to focus not on whether cooperation can occur at all, but on more focused questions regarding how the actual institutions of cooperation work and through what means they have their impact on state behavior.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Government, International Cooperation, International Law
  • Author: Allen Buchanan, Robert Keohane
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
  • Abstract: Since 9/11/2001 fears of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction have fueled a vigorous world-wide debate about the use of preventive force. “Preventive force” may be defined as the initiation of military action in anticipation of harmful actions that are neither presently occurring nor imminent.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Security, Government, Politics
  • Author: Gerardo Munck
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
  • Abstract: This assessment of research on contemporary democratic politics in Latin America is organized around the distinction between institutional and alternative approaches. Initially it considers institutionalism on its own terms and, through an assessment of the debate about the institutional causes of gridlock, draws attention to key strengths of this literature. Thereafter, some of the limitations of an institutional approach are addressed and the possibility of combining insights developed from institutional and alternative theoretical perspectives is emphasized. The suggested terms of integration, however, are not symmetric. With regard to causal theorizing, the need for institutionalists to borrow ideas, especially from the broader literature on political regimes, is underlined. With regard to theorizing outcomes, in contrast, the need for students of the quality of democracy to incorporate contributions made by institutionalists is highlighted. Throughout, various pointed suggestions to advance research are offered.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: South America, Latin America, North America
  • Author: Manuel Pastor, Carol Wise
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
  • Abstract: After a committed process of macroeconomic stabilization that began during the mid-1980s in most of Latin America, many observers began to speak of the need for a “second generation” of reforms that could more firmly establish the bases for economic growth and correct for longstanding distributional inequities. By the mid-1990s serious reformers like Argentina and Mexico seemed to be on the cusp of tackling this distributional backlog by launching so-called second phase market reforms meant to correct for earlier shortcomings in the social realm (Naím 1995; Pastor and Wise 1999). However, in both cases, financial crises erupted: Mexico's crash of December 1994, which saw a forty percent devaluation of the peso and a massive outflow of portfolio capital; and, more recently, Argentina's 2002 meltdown, which while simmering since the Brazilian devaluation of 1999, finally caused the country's commitment to a fixed exchange rate to be abandoned.
  • Topic: Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, Mexico
  • Author: Helen Milner
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
  • Abstract: Why do countries delegate the distribution of foreign aid to international institutions? Specifically, why have the advanced industrial countries chosen to distribute part of their foreign aid through multilateral organizations, such as the European Union (EU), World Bank, IMF, UN, and regional development banks (RDBs)? The delegation of aid provision to an international institution is puzzling. Why would governments relinquish control over their aid if they are a useful instrument of statecraft? Governments delegate aid delivery to international institutions when their publics lack information about the consequences of aid and fear that their governments will deviate from their wishes concerning its use. By using the international organization to send aid, the government issues a credible signal to voters about the use of foreign aid. This signal leaves all actors better off by helping to solve a principal-agent problem in domestic politics. When publics are skeptical about the benefits of aid, governments are more likely to turn aid over to multilateral organizations in order to reassure taxpayers that their money is being well spent. Using data on about 20 donor countries of the OECD from 1960-2000, I investigate the sources of multilateral giving, showing that public opinion has the expected negative relationship to multilateral aid-giving.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, United Nations
  • Author: Jonathan P. Doh
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Government subsidies are a pervasive problem for international trade and economic development. Subsidies distort investment decisions, generally squander scarce public resources, skew public expenditures toward unproductive uses, unfairly discriminate against efficient industries and firms, and prompt wasteful overconsumption of some products over others. Despite efforts to limit subsidies through trade and investment policy disciplines, subsidization remains a constant on the global trade policy and international business landscape.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, North America