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  • Author: Heiko Wimmen
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: HW: Professor Peled, during the two years of Ariel Sharon's tenure as prime minister, Israel has seen a steep economic decline, and a rapidly deteriorating security situation. Yet Mr. Sharon enjoys more support than any Israeli head of government for a long time. What do you make of this paradox?
  • Topic: Government, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Palestine
  • Author: Burhan Ghalioun
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The failure to discover any traceable evidence of Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq doubtlessly creates a serious embarrassment for the American administration. But the US never made much of an effort to conceal that the purported existence of WMDs in Iraq was only a pretext employed to obtain the consent of some of its bigger allies to its global strategic outlook, and the acquiescence of smaller nations to its regional plans. The real objective behind the US strike against Iraq was not the destruction of WMDs – Iraq in its pre-war state was ill equipped to produce WMDs anyway – but to topple the regime of President Saddam Hussein. The Bush administration also clearly considered regime change to be more than a strategic aim in itself, but rather a prelude to a general makeover of the region, in the course of which many local regimes would have to change or be changed according to its strategic vision. Secretary of State Colin Powell made this abundantly clear when, in December 2002, he promised the peoples of the region a concerted effort on behalf of the US to achieve democratic change, fight unemployment and work for the improvement of women's position in society.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America, Middle East
  • Author: Robert Muggah
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The availability and misuse of small arms and light weapons is like a disease – a symptom and an outcome of human insecurity. Investments in improving security – a precondition of development – are strongly correlated with reductions in violence and poverty. But the development community has yet to fully wake-up to the wide-ranging effects of small arms. The issue is often treated as somebody else's problem, as too big and complex and therefore not amenable to a developmental response. But the effects are preventable. A concerted effort on the part of the development community to prevent and treat this veritable epidemic could yield substantial developmental dividends.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development
  • Author: Haider K. Nizamani
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The Pakistani society is rid with fissures on almost every issue and aspect concerning the nature of political system, nation-building, the meaning of the national identity and the means to ensure it. When it comes to the nuclear issue mid this cacophony and chaos, General Pervez Musharraf asserts that there is complete national consensus on Pakistan's nuclear program. Leaders of Jamaat-E-Islami, the most vocal political party in espousing the cause of nuclear Pakistan, argue that barring few individuals who are against nuclear weapons, the overwhelming majority of Pakistanis consider nuclear weapons essential for the country's security. Is there really a consensus in Pakistan regarding the nuclear option? Have people thought about their country's nuclear weapons program and policy? Have they thought about the likely costs of their country's nuclear program? Do they know who is in the control of the country's nuclear infrastructure? Such questions address the perceptual, doctrinal, command and control, and future dimensions of Pakistani nuclear weapons and policy.
  • Topic: Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Brazil
  • Author: Chung-in Moon
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The North Korean problem is composed of two inter-related issues, namely nuclear weapons and missiles. The current quasi-crisis on the Korean peninsula has resulted mainly from disputes over North Korea's nuclear weapons development that involves three dimensions. The first dimension is the suspicion on its past possession of nuclear warheads (one or two) before the signing of the Geneva Agreed Framework (Agreed Framework) in 1994. The second one centers on present nuclear issues related to reprocessing of 8,000 spent fuel rods stored in water pond and manufacturing and exports of plutonium as well as production of additional nuclear warheads, which were previously frozen by the 1994 Agreed Framework. The third dimension is the future nuclear problem associated with the development of highly enriched uranium (HEU) program. The United States claims that North Korea admitted its existence during its special envoy, James Kelly's visit to Pyongyang in October 2002.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Geneva, Israel, North Korea
  • Author: Rajesh Basrur
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The central question before us is whether it is appropriate for South Asians to learn from the US-Soviet experience of the Cold War. This raises other questions: Are the two sets of relationships comparable? Is there in South Asia a "cold war" essentially similar to the Cold War? Should the theoretical lenses we use for both sets be the same? Can we learn from the one about the other? Is the thinking and practice relating to nuclear weapons in the two sets comparable?
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States, South Asia, Soviet Union
  • Author: Joseph C. Folio
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
  • Abstract: During Fall 2003 the Schlesinger Working Group held two meetings (September 25th and November 3rd) to explore China's estimated political/ economic outlook and to determine what potential challenges might affect its projected future. The purpose of these meetings was not to predict a Chinese stumble or even collapse, but rather to examine events that could trigger a disruption of China's current, impressively successful economic trajectory, and to analyze what form that disruption could take. During the first meeting, participants identified potential disruption scenarios to which China remains vulnerable. The second meeting considered the implications of disruption for both China and the United States, and how these scenarios might affect U.S. policy. Working Group members did not attempt to assign probabilities for the identified potential disruptions or “failures.” Rather, they focused on the hurdles or challenges posed by these disruption scenarios, which the Chinese leadership would need to confront successfully in order to avoid losing control or endangering national cohesion. Participants generally agreed that any major disruption would most likely derive from an external shock that might negatively affect China's economic situation and possibly ignite collateral internal disruption via domestic unrest or leadership division. The group concurred that the Chinese leadership has sufficient strength and cohesion to manage most forms of internal disruption, or at least to adapt quickly and effectively to those that arise.
  • Topic: International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, China
  • Author: Paul G. Frost
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
  • Abstract: The Schlesinger Working Group on Strategic Surprises in Spring 2003 took on the topic, "The Unintended Consequences of an Expanded U.S. Military Presence in the Muslim World", holding its first meeting March 18, literally on the eve of war against Iraq. Its second meeting was held May 27, after the war ended, and as the difficulties of post-war reconstruction were becoming clearer. Core members and area/subject experts met to examine benefits and drawbacks, as well as scenarios that could stem from an expanded American military presence in the Middle East, South Asia and North Africa.
  • Topic: Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America, South Asia, Middle East, Arabia, North Africa
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
  • Abstract: This panel on global democratization is part of an ongoing ISD effort to focus policy debate on a topic of growing importance. The first in this series of panel discussions was held shortly after 9/11, and was entitled "Sustaining Global Democratization: a priority now more than ever". That title could serve well for this panel also, as the connected issues of democratization and nation building are more timely and urgent than ever. In the new National Security Strategy, the President commits the U.S. to "extend the benefits of freedom across the globe." Democratization is no longer on the fringes of the policy debate. Uppermost on the agenda of policy maker and analyst are the open questions relating to Afghanistan, Iraq and the West-Bank/Gaza. How our democracy promoting goals are to be pursued and achieved in these and other cases is far from clear. Panelists today and at subsequent forums will bring the benefit of their wide experience to these issues. The problems that we discuss are global in nature. Today's panel will for the most part focus on the Middle East. Other regions will be the focus of attention at subsequent forums.
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, War
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, Gaza
  • Author: Barbara F. Walter
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
  • Abstract: Between 1940 and 1996, governments were seventy percent less likely to negotiate with rebels seeking independence or greater territorial autonomy than with rebels seeking any other goal. Current theories suggest that this is due to the economic, strategic, or psychological value of territory under dispute. I argue that a government's decision to negotiate has more to do with the signal the government wishes to send to future challengers than with any specific characteristics of the land in question. If the government believes it could face multiple separatist challenges in the future, it will invest in a reputation for toughness now rather than face additional challengers down the road. If the government knows it will face such a challenge only once, there is less reason to invest in a reputation and negotiation is likely to result. An analysis of all self-determination movements between 1940 and 2000 demonstrates that governments of multiethnic states are far less likely to negotiate than are governments that preside over more homogenous populations.
  • Topic: Security, Peace Studies, Politics