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  • Author: Simon Chesterman
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: Transitional administrations represent the most complex operations attempted by the United Nations. The missions in Kosovo (1999—) and East Timor (1999–2002) are commonly seen as unique in the history of the United Nations. But they may also be seen as the latest in a series of operations that have involved the United Nations in 'state-building' activities, in which it has attempted to develop the institutions of government by assuming some or all of those sovereign powers on a temporary basis. Viewed in light of earlier UN operations, such as those in Namibia (1989–1990), Cambodia (1992–1993), and Eastern Slavonia (1996–1998), the idea that these exceptional circumstances may not recur is somewhat disingenuous. The need for policy research in this area was brought into sharp focus by the weighty but vague responsibilities assigned to the United Nations in Afghanistan (2002—) and its contested role in Iraq (2003—).
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Government, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Kosovo, Cambodia, Namibia, Eastern Slavonia
  • Author: Heiko Nitzschke, Karen Ballentine
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: This policy report provides a synopsis of the key findings from case studies on the political economy of armed intra-state conflicts, commissioned by the International Peace Academy's program on Economic Agendas in Civil wars (EAC W ). These findings offer lessons for improved policies for conflict prevention and resolution. Combatants' incentives for self-enrichment and/ or opportunities for insurgent mobilization created by access to natural and financial resources were neither the primary nor sole cause of the separatist and non-separatist conflicts analyzed. Nevertheless, extensive combatant self-financing complicated and prolonged hostilities, in some cases creating serious impediments to their resolu-tion. In all cases, however, these factors interacted to varying degrees with long-standing socio-economic and political grievances, inter-ethnic disputes, and security dilemmas brought about by weak and unaccountable systems of governance. Conflict analysis should avoid "resource reductionist" models in favor of comprehensive approaches that not only account for the complex interrelationship between economic and political dynamics, but also incorporate the political economy of both rebellion and state failure. Improved understanding is required of the role that combatant access to resources can play in shaping a permissive opportunity structure for separatist and non-separatist conflicts relative to other socio-political factors. Different resource endowments affect different sorts of conflicts and benefit combatant parties in distinct ways, depending, inter alia, on the mode of exploitation and how proceeds are managed by the state. "Lootable" resources, such as alluvial diamonds and illegal narcotics are more likely to be implicated in non-separatist insurgencies. They prolong conflict by benefiting rebels and conflict-dependent civilians, compromising battle disci-pline, and by multiplying the number of peace spoilers. "Unlootable" resources, such as oil, gas, and deep-shaft mineral deposits tend to be associ-ated with separatist conflicts, which are often caused by ethno-political grievances over inequitable resource revenue-sharing and exclusionary government policies. Given the importance of lootable natural resources and easily captured diaspora remittances in sustaining many of today's armed conflicts, improved international regulatory efforts to curtail these resource flows are both warranted and necessary. Commodity control regimes need to be strengthened and also complemented by more comprehensive efforts that address the financial flows connected with those resources. However, even the most robust resource control regimes are unlikely to have a decisive or even fully positive impact. Where conflicts are motivated by a mix of political, security, ethnic, and economic factors, curtailing resource flows to combatants may weaken their military capacity but not their resolve to continue fighting. In addition, regulatory regimes may have adverse humanitarian effects by increasing civilian predation by rebels or by stifling civilian incomes. When designing and implementing regulatory regimes, policy-makers need to distinguish between those who exploit armed conflict for profit and power and those who participate in war economies to sustain their civilian livelihoods. The offer of "economic peace dividends" may co-opt belligerents into ceasefires or more formal peace processes. Critically, however, economic inducements are unlikely to achieve these results in the absence of a credible military threat and may risk the creation of "negative peace," where justice and sustainability are deeply compromised and the threat of renewed conflict remains high. Policy-makers need to identify and adequately integrate economic incentives of combatants into a wider set of political and strategic inducements for conflict resolution and peace-building. Today's insurgents increasingly engage in illegal economic activities either directly or through links with international criminal networks. However, insurgency groups have not equivocally transformed into mere criminal organizations as they retain- albeit to varying degrees- military and political goals. While improved interdiction and law enforcement are important policy tools, casting rebellion as a criminal rather than a political phenomenon may risk mischaracterizing legitimate grievances, thereby foreclosing opportu-nities for negotiated resolution, and may lend de facto legitimacy to state actors, regardless of their behavior and role in the conflict. Poor economic governance and state weakness are the critical mediating factors between resource abundance and vulnerability to armed conflict; the first engenders popular grievances, the second makes separatist and non-separatist insurgencies politically and militarily feasible. Policy responses need to focus on structural conflict prevention efforts by, inter alia, designing and supporting tools and strategies for more effective, equitable, and accountable systems of resource management, complemented by longer-term strategies of economic diversifica-tion and poverty reduction. Contemporary intra-state conflicts have strong regional and even global linkages. By increasing the number of potential war profiteers and peace-spoilers and multiplying the points of conflict, these broader dimensions not only affect the character and duration of hostilities, but also complicate the prospects for conflict resolution and post-conflict stability. Both conflict analysis and policymaking need to address these regional dimensions by strengthening the economic management capacities of formal regional organi-zations and ad hoc alliances, complementing- and thus strengthening- national and global conflict management strategies.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Economy
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: The International Peace Academy (IPA), in collaboration with and thanks to generous support from the Permanent Mission of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, convened a high-level retreat on May 16-17 entitled From Promise to Practice: Revitalizing the General Assembly for the New Millennium. The retreat brought together, in an informal setting, approximately twenty-five permanent representatives and a very few deputy permanent representatives in addition to a member of the Secretariat and a key outside expert respectively over dinner and one full day of deliberations at the Greentree Estate in Manhasset, New York.
  • Topic: International Organization, Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Political Geography: New York
  • Author: Karin Wermester, Chandra Lekha Sriram
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: While the promise of conflict prevention has risen to the fore of international policy agenda since the end of the 1990s, its practice and effectivenes remain elusive. Following in the footsteps of peacebuilding, conflict prevention is a loose conceptual framework for the increasingly broad range of actors engaged in conflict-affected zones. The concept of conflict prevention expands the scope of peacebuilding temporally and spatially, calling for the early prevention of violent conflict and the prevention of further outbreaks through "structural" as well as "operational" initiatives. It promises cross-cutting approaches to mitigate the sources of potential conflict rather than merely the symptoms at arguably a lesser cost and with great potential for lasting peace than other forms of intervention. The challenge, of course, is that violent conflict can be hard to predict, especially in the early phases when efforts to prevent its escalation might be most valuable. More, it is harder to prevent effectively, and further to demonstrate that preventive initiatives have been successful.
  • Topic: International Organization, Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Author: Ian Anthony
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Information Service
  • Abstract: While states are responsible for honouring any commitments to one another that they make, it has become obvious that they are not always capable of doing so. Where the failure to implement agreed undertakings reflects a lack of financial or technical capacity rather than a deliberate effort to undermine the terms of an agreement it is preferable for all parties to offer assistance rather than criticism and punishment. During the period after the end of the cold war a new type of international cooperation has appeared as states have been willing to render practical assistance to one another in order to reduce common threats. In broad terms military activities have been of three types: facilitating the dismantlement and destruction of weapons; the establishment of a safe and secure chain of custody over weapons or other items; and demilitarization and conversion projects.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Gerrard Quille, Stephen Pullinger
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Information Service
  • Abstract: This is the first in a series of Discussion and Policy Papers - published by ISIS Europe and Saferworld - that will trace, analyse and contribute towards developments in the European Union's emerging strategy against the proliferation of weapons and materials of mass destruction (WMD). This first paper has been written for circulation at the EU's Inter - Parliamentary Conference on the 'Non - proliferation and Disarmament Co - operation Initiative' within the framework of the G8 'Global Partnership against Materials and Weapons of Mass Destruction', launched in Kananaskis, Canada in July 2002. The authors welcome the initiative by the European Commission to promote Parliamentary interest in this important area of non - proliferation.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Europe, Canada
  • Author: Catriona Gourlay, Catriona Mace
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Information Service
  • Abstract: In this first conference session speakers addressed the ways in which structural reforms could improve the integration and accountability of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). The draft constitution then under discussion at the European Convention was evaluated and the session aimed to identify further reforms that could be enacted in order to improve the integration and accountability of EU action in foreign affairs, security and defence.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Holger Anders
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Information Service
  • Abstract: Illicit trafficking and misuse of small arms and light weapons (SALW)1pose serious threats to international peace and security. SALW proliferation facilitates and fuels violent conflicts, causes grave human suffering and contributes to armed banditry and crime. Moreover, the excessive availability of SALW on licit and black markets hinders conflict resolution and greatly undermines sustainable development.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Author: Natalie Pauwels
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Information Service
  • Abstract: The role that the availability of lucrative natural resources including gem stones, minerals and timber plays in the incidence of violent conflict in several countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, is the subject of significant policy debate and academic research. Indeed, it is generally recognised that the trade in certain commodities has played a role in the continuation of several wars, providing resources to both rebels and governments to finance their military campaigns.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Environment, War
  • Political Geography: America
  • Author: Carl Conetta
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Project on Defense Alternatives
  • Abstract: The motivating premise of this study is that nations cannot wage war responsibly or intelligently without careful attention to its costs. The broader context in which "Operation Iraqi Freedom" was conducted -- that is, the campaign against terrorism -- makes attention to the repercussions of war even more urgent. Effective action against terrorism depends in fair part on an effort to win hearts and minds. Success in this effort turns significantly on issues of legitimacy and responsible action, especially with regard to the use of force. And the first principle of responsible action is to take account of its effects.
  • Topic: Human Welfare, War
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Carl Conetta
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Project on Defense Alternatives
  • Abstract: This report analyzes an important aspect of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF): the interdiction of Iraqi ground units by coalition air forces. Based on air campaign statistics, observations from the field, and the experience of past air campaigns, the report assesses the likely impact (in terms of combatant casualties) of coalition air attacks on the Iraqi army in the field. Our approach is a comparative one that views the OIF air interdiction campaign in light of the experience of the 1991 Gulf War. Among the issues we explore is the contribution of coalition air power to the catastrophic collapse of the Iraqi Republican Guard and regular army.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Charles Knight, Melissa Murphy
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Project on Defense Alternatives
  • Abstract: This briefing memo addresses trends in the incidence of terror in the post-Cold War period by comparing the number of international terror attacks on American interests with the overall number of terror attacks worldwide. We present the data year by year and as three year moving averages. We use data from the U.S. Department of State which is frequently cited as authoritative and usefully summarizes annual statistics.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Fred Dallmayr
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
  • Abstract: In the teeth of its modern despisers, religion has made a comeback in our time — for good or ill. Too often, the negative side is in the limelight. What Gilles Kepel has called the “revenge of God” on inspection usually turns out to be the ill will and vengefulness of religious communities and their leaders. The litany of contemporary religious clashes — or conflicts in good part spawned by religious motives — is long and depressing: Christians pitted against Muslims in Africa and the Balkans; Jews against Palestinians in the Near East; Hindus against Muslims in India and Kashmir; Hindus against Buddhists in Sri Lank, not to forget the old feud between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Globalization, Peace Studies, Religion
  • Political Geography: Africa, India, Kashmir, Sri Lanka, Palestine, Balkans, North Ireland
  • Author: Daniel R. Lynch
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
  • Abstract: There is no shortage of pronouncements that we are now at a key point in history. This critical moment has four defining characteristics: industrialization, the explosion in scientific and technical knowledge, globalization, and a missing emphasis on the public good.
  • Topic: Democratization
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Human Rights First
  • Abstract: This report examines a wide range of actions taken by the United States government over the last six months in response to the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. It updates our report entitled “A Year of Loss” published in September 2002, on the first anniversary of the attacks.
  • Topic: Government, Human Rights, National Security
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Hsien-Hen Lu, Julian Palmer, Younghwan Song, Mary Clare Lennon, J. Lawrence Aber
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
  • Abstract: By analyzing data from the Current Population Survey March Supplements, Living at the Edge explores the following questions about children in low-income families in the United States: What are the overall changes in the low-income and poverty rates for children over the past quarter century? How has the population of children in low-income families changed over the past decade? Which children are more likel to live in low-income famlies? How have changes in parental employment status affected the likelihood children living in low-income families? What are the state by state variations in child low-income and poverty rates, and how have these changed in the last decade? How does a more inclusive definition of family income and expenses affect our understanding of the poverty and near-poverty rates of children in low-income families?
  • Topic: Economics, Human Welfare, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Gilbert Rozman
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: Russia needs to open the Russian Far East for regional integration and make use of its dynamism and vast natural resources. Initiatives of the past decade have demonstrated great sensitivity to the dangers of foreign presence, but little forward thinking on their positive contributions. Putin has advanced beyond Yeltsin, but there is still no vision of regionalism. A reorientation of Sino-Russian relations from strategic goals associated with multipolarity to economic cooperation in a multilateral context offers hope that a new approach is coming. Under the umbrella of globalization including closer relations with the U.S., Putin can more easily pursue regional integration as well. In 2002-03, the nuclear standoff between North Korea and the U.S. put regionalism on hold, while energy security achieved a new profile that gave Putin the opportunity to weigh offers from China, Japan, and the U.S., while asserting control over oligarch Mikhail Khodorovsky and his oil behemoth Yukos. Clearly, Putin planned to take firm charge of managing all dimensions of regionalism, but it was less clear if he would encourage market forces.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Japan, China, Asia, North Korea
  • Author: Paul T. Christensen
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: Since the middle of the Gorbachev period, much has been written about the (re)emergence of civil society and the rapid appearance of social organizations in Russia and throughout the post-communist world. Of late, however, society and social organizations appear mainly as footnotes to the discussions of politics in the Russian Federation. This is not particularly surprising, given continuing struggles over “reform,” the ongoing war in Chechnya, the international community's preoccupation with terrorism, and not least given the absence of any dramatic social unrest or “mobilization from below.” This absence of discussion about society, however, is troubling for those interested in self-governance in Russia. Not only does this absence reflect the weak and threatened societal foundations for such governance, it also highlights the general lack of attention given to social conditions in Russia—by the Russian state, other states in the international system, and international institutions alike. Scholars who are concerned with social empowerment and democratization in the post-communist world have repeatedly noted the difficulty that civil society faces in carving out a space for itself across the region. Boris Kagarlitksy barely exaggerates when he writes that civil society in Russia “perished even before it had managed to appear,” and there is little doubt that Russian society remains largely excluded from politics.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Chechnya
  • Author: Andrei Ryabov
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: Not too long ago, the analysts studying the development of the Russian political process under Vladimir Putin attached foremost attention to efforts aimed to formulate the political priorities of Russia's second president and to ascertain his vision of the way the nation should develop. The actions and decisions made by Putin were analyzed primarily from that angle. For a long time, that way of analyzing today's Russian politics was regarded as perfectly operational: it is common knowledge that the political system in Russia is monocentric and the president is the principal political agent whose position largely determines the character and the thrust of political change. However, the two years that have elapsed since Putin's rise to power have compelled many experts to revise their attitudes. The reason is that despite the occasional changes in the system of government institutions made by the second president of the Russian Federation and his announcement of a continued market-oriented reform, what lies ahead remains uncertain. There are still doubts about the firmness of the stabilization attained under Putin, while the influence wielded by most of the key Russian political actors who arose back in Yeltsin's times has not diminished whatsoever. In this connection it has even been said that, in the final analysis, Putin will have to return to the policy pursued by his predecessor.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Stefani Hoffman
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: The Greek term “diaspora” was first applied to the dispersion and settlement of the Jews outside of ancient Palestine. Subsequently, the term was extended to the Greek and Armenian dispersion and to other migratory phenomena, although scholars continue to refer back to the original meaning. Indeed, particularly since the fall of the Soviet bloc and the acceleration of globalization processes, governmental bodies, NGOs, and academic institutions have devoted considerable attention to defining and studying the various migratory processes and the effects of clusters of immigrant populations on countries in the developed world.
  • Topic: Migration
  • Political Geography: Russia, Middle East, Israel, Soviet Union, Palestine
  • Author: John B. Dunlop
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: One perceptive observer of the Russian political scene, Francoise Thom, noted as far back as 1994 that fascism, and especially its “Eurasianist” variant, was already at that time displacing Russian nationalism among statist Russian elites as a post-communist “Russian Idea,” especially in the foreign policy sphere. “The weakness of Russian nationalists,” she emphasized, “stems from their inability to clearly situate Russian frontiers. Euras[ianism] brings an ideological foundation for post-Soviet imperialism.”
  • Topic: International Relations, Nationalism, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Eurasia
  • Author: Joshua Handler
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: The history of anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defenses is long and controversial. From the late 1990s and until today, what to do about missile defenses and the 1972 ABM Treaty has been one of the central problems in U.S.-Russian relations. Several times the United States and Russia appeared to have been on the verge of a new Cold War over this question. This paper reviews the history of the missile defense debate and offers some observations on a way forward. On balance, it may be best for the international community to downplay the Bush administration's missile defense plans and instead focus on promoting diplomatic solutions to the missile proliferation problem. Moreover, the international community should examine the possibilities of banning long-range ballistic missiles. This would make U.S. plans for a national missile defense (NMD) redundant, while at the same time improving international security in general.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States
  • Author: Alexei Malashenko
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: Despite the interest for Islam in Russia, for the Islamic factor in the country's domestic and foreign policy, and despite the growing number of publications on the subject, the Russian Muslim community remains largely a thing in itself, an enigma. In other words, there are more questions than answers here.
  • Topic: Government, Religion
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Louise Shelley
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: The globalization of the fruits of Russian organized crime and corruption have affected Russia's international image and undermined state capacity. The departure of illicitly gained billions quickly diminished the capacity of even a once formidable power. It deprived Russia of the resources it needs to rebuild the state infrastructure, service its debts and pay the salaries and pensions of its citizens. The failure of a former superpower to meet the basic needs of its citizens has served as a powerful lesson to the international community. This occurred, in part, because those who controlled the state's capital could move money abroad in enormous amounts and great rapidity.
  • Topic: Government, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Virginie Coulloudon
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: One of the main difficulties in examining corruption both under the Soviet regime and in post-Soviet Russia lies in its definition. Ever since Yurii Andropov launched systematic anticorruption campaigns in the late 1970s and raised the level of awareness of this social disease, all Soviet and Russian leaders have emphasized the necessity of eradicating corruption without really clarifying what particular phenomenon they had in mind. When analyzing Russian corruption, one is surprised to see how many forms it takes: from rule evasion and bribe taking to rent-seeking, abuses of power, embezzlement, bureaucratic extortion, and insider dealing. Adding to this already complex picture, the causes of such infringements of the law and endemic corruption are perceived differently in different contexts – whether under the Soviet regime or in post-Soviet Russia, or if such actions were motivated by the necessity to survive in an economically and politically hostile environment or merely by a thirst for personal gain.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Oleg Bukharin
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: Two factors were of critical significance in shaping the international peace and security agenda after the Cold War: the emergence of nuclear security and proliferation dangers in the wake of the Soviet collapse, and the unprecedented level of cooperation between Russia and other countries to address these problems. As a result of cooperative international and Russia's domestic efforts, important progress has been made in recent years in reducing nuclear arsenals, protecting Russia's nuclear materials, and preventing proliferation of nuclear weapons expertise from Russia. Much work, however, remains to be done.
  • Topic: International Relations, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Svante Cornell
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: Ethnopolitical conflict has, especially since the early 1990s, been a growing source of concern in the international arena. Having grown since the 1960s, it culminated after the cold war with the eruption of conflict in the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. Ethnic mobilization among minority populations in multiethnic states has often led to demands for self-rule or to secession. Especially in defined geographical areas where minorities are compactly settled, the creation of a separate state is seen as a feasible goal and control over territory often becomes a chief issue of conflict. Many theorists have found that solutions involving regional autonomy are effective in dealing with ethnic conflict. Ted Gurr, for example, has argued that "negotiated regional autonomy has proved to be an effective antidote for ethnopolitical wars of secession in Western and Third World States." Regional autonomy implies the introduction of ethnoterritoriality - linking territorial control to ethnicity. This is the case either when a region is explicitly created as a homeland for an ethnic group or when a minority group constitutes a large majority of the population of an autonomous state structure and perceives it as its own. Advocates of ethnofederalism argue that autonomy solutions are effective conflict-resolving mechanisms and that further federalization of multiethnic states along ethnic lines will help prevent ethnic conflict. In some of the literature, ethnofederalism has been characterized as what David Meyer terms a "cure-all prescription" for ethnic tensions. There is, however, considerable reason to argue that the institution of territorial autonomy may be conducive not to interethnic peace and cooperation but may in fact foster ethnic mobilization, increased secessionism, and even armed conflict.
  • Topic: Ethnic Conflict, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Europe, Caucasus, Soviet Union, Yugoslavia
  • Author: Sonia Ben Ouagrham
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: Since September 11th, the American anthrax-laced letters and the war in Afghanistan have revived the interest of government officials, researchers and the general public to the state and security of former biological weapon (BW) facilities in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). In the popular press, reports of the general economic crisis and the political unrest that characterize FSU countries tend to emphasize the proliferation threat from these countries. Very little is said, however, about the nuances of this threat, its nature and degree of probability. Some reports tend to overestimate the number of employees at former BW facilities, thus inflating the risks of brain drain. While at the same time, other major sources of proliferation, such as the diversion of pathogens or the illicit transfer of specialized equipment are usually ignored. The present paper aims to characterize more precisely the threat stemming from former BW facilities in the FSU by determining what type of resources are available at former BW facilities and to what extent they are accessible to states of concern or terrorist groups. Although the existing open source information enables us to determine more clearly the categories of personnel, the type of equipment and material that pose the greatest proliferation threat, it does not measure properly the extent of the threat, i.e. an inventory of past and present facilities, expertise, equipment and material. Nevertheless, we can conclude that specialized knowledge, equipment and dangerous pathogens are available at former BW facilities in the FSU and can become accessible to state or non-state actors wishing to start or develop covert BW programs. This is particularly true in Central Asia, where economic and security factors, associated with the geographic characteristics of this region all converge to form a chain of proliferation: seekers of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their related technologies, potential suppliers and deliverers.
  • Topic: Sovereignty, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Russia, America, Central Asia
  • Author: Dwight Ink
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: My comments on donor policies that increase vulnerability to corruption grow out of experience of directing the Agency for International Development programs in the Western Hemisphere, as well as assessing USAID missions in Africa, the Near East, and Asia. Following this work, I headed a non-profit organization, the Institute of Public Administration, which has been heavily involved in the transition of countries in Europe and Asia from dictatorships to market economies and democratic societies. I should point out, however, that my background is in management, not banking or economics.
  • Topic: Development, Non-Governmental Organization, Poverty, Third World
  • Political Geography: Africa, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Carolyn Barnes
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: This study seeks to better understand the ways chronic illness and death, possibly associated with HIV/AIDS, negatively affect households and the impact of microcredit in helping affected households. This is achieved through analysis of data from clients of Zambuko Trust and non-client micro entrepreneurs, using proxy indicators of HIV/AIDS affected households. It also investigates the vetting of members by loan guarantee groups and the ways these groups deal with individuals affected by illness and death. Since members of loan groups serve as gatekeepers to loans, the internal dynamics of these groups as well as the MFI's policies and loan term s and conditions are important to understanding any push factors that might exclude HIV/AIDS infected and affected individuals. Suggestions from clients and other key stakeholders are provided on changes that might assist microfinance institutions and their clients to address the negative effects of HIV/AIDS.
  • Topic: Economics, Human Welfare, Poverty
  • Political Geography: Zimbabwe
  • Author: Carolyn Barnes, Gayle Morris
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: Using three microfinance institutions (FINCA , FOCCAS, PRIDE) in Uganda, this paper focuses on the impact of microfiance program participation and profiles the clients who participate in these programs. The research covers clients and a non-client comparison group in rural Mbale district, the capital city of Kampala, and Masaka town and its periphery. The two-staged survey was conducted in late 1997 and repeated during the same months in 1999. The assessment conclude s that microfinance program participation has the following positive characteristics on client microenterprises: addition of new products and services, improved or expanded enterprise sites and markets, reduced costs of inventory purchases, and increases in sales volume. Household-level impacts include: began new enterprise, increased amount spent on durable assets and agricultural inputs, increased amount of cultivated agricultural land, and increased amount of household income from crops. The findings also suggest that microfinance programs help client households reduce their financial vulnerability through diversification of income sources and accumulation of assets.
  • Topic: Development, Emerging Markets, Third World
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Kampala, Masaka
  • Author: Marcela Tribble, Terry F. Buss
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: Effective citizen participation processes are now regarded as critical in insuring the successful implementation of federal program s in local com m unities. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's (HUD) Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) program, a $4.4 billion community/economic development initiative serving more than 1,000 entitlement communities presents an as of yet unrealized opportunity to involve citizens much more in developing, planning, implementing and evaluating local projects. The Secretary of HUD could greatly expand and deepen citizen participation under CDBG by linking merit pay for federal officials to improved citizen participation efforts, providing entitlement com m unities better incentives, funding demonstration projects, and promoting best practices nation-wide; in short, moving citizen participation much higher up on the national agenda.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Mumukshu Patel
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: On November 6, 2003 in a speech at the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), President George W Bush enunciated his Middle East Doctrine: democratization of the region as the first priority of U.S. strategy, irrespective of past policy considerations. It was the most ambitious policy overhaul for the region, since President Eisenhower's commitment to defend the Middle East against Soviet Communism. Following the Eisenhower doctrine all U.S. Middle East policy reflected strategic U.S. concerns: as long as states in the Middle East cooperated with the U.S., shunned Communism and later rejected theocratic regimes – at least nominally, the United States would ignore their domestic policies, and support them – via foreign aid, military technology and personnel etc. This was the status quo that characterized U.S. policy toward the Middle East.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Democratization
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Soviet Union
  • Author: Frank Fairbanks, Allan V. Burman, Gail Christopher, Patrick J. Kelly, Lyle Laverty, Keith Mulrooney, Paul Posner, Charles Wise
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: Wildland fire - related acquisition management programs of the five federal land management agencies are big business. For example, Forest Service wildfire preparedness and suppression contracting costs reached almost $800 million in FY 2002. Even at a lower level, these costs significantly affect other land management programs and their funding. Thus, searching for and taking advantage of methods to achieve cost containment of escalating wildland fire acquisition programs take on added value. That is the basic premise of this Academy report.
  • Topic: Environment, Government, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: As the title of this forum suggests, both the government and contractors can lose when outsourcing does not work. At the same time, the prevailing view expressed by the panelists was that outsourcing presents a promising opportunity for the public and private sectors to improve performance and minimize costs.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government, Industrial Policy
  • Author: Ryan J. Watson
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: Global debate and media awareness of the complex issues involved with post-conflict governance are at an all-time high. With the reconstruction of the Balkans still leaving much left undone, the United States and much of the international community are seeking to balance continued intervention in Afghanistan with the emerging challenge of rebuilding Iraq.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Balkans
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: This might well have been the greeting card on the desk of the nation's first Secretary of Homeland Security: Officially launched January 24, 2003 with 180,000 employees and a budget of nearly $40 billion, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is, at its inception, the third largest cabinet agency in the U.S. government. No U.S. government reorganization of this magnitude has been accomplished since the creation of the Department of Defense following World War II.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Don Kettl, Peter Harkness, Lisa Heinzerling, DeWitt John, Howard M. Messner, Robert Terrell, Christophe Tulou, Alfred M. Zuck
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: The New Source Review program (NSR) is a critic al tool enacted by Congress 25 years ago to protect public health and improve the nation's air quality. But, as applied to existing facilities, NSR is not working as Congress intended. Thus NSR should be fundamentally reformed and strongly enforced against past violations by existing facilities.
  • Topic: Environment, Government, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Camille Cates Barnett, Christine Becker, Peter Goldberg, Sandra J. Hale, Sara E. Melendez, Michael Rogers
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: A high-performance partnership is a mutually beneficial and reciprocal relationship among entities that share responsibilities, authority, and accountability for results. The partnership is high performance when it achieves goals and outcomes that are meaningful and could not be reached by an individual partner alone.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Government, Industrial Policy, International Organization
  • Author: Terry F. Buss, Stevens F. Redburn
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: Changes in society and emerging technologies offer new possibilities for meaningful citizen participation in public choices. A new set of computer-based processes will support sophisticated and game -like group decision-making. Advanced software design accompanied by sensitivity to the hum an/machine interactions that must be managed can lead to citizen-friendly software products and processes that ordinary people can use both individually and in a group setting to make complex choices.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Ivelaw L. Griffith
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: The two epigraphs — one by a noted scholar and erstwhile policyactor and the other by a respected policymaker with intellectual acumen — capture core elements of the twin realities of continuity and change that define the security scenario of the contemporary Caribbean. Proximity, vulnerability, and instability are not new features of the Caribbean or of Caribbean-United States dynamics; they represent some of the continuity from times past. However, they assume special character because of the terrorism tragedy that has “cast a pall across the whole hemisphere,” to quote Barbados Prime Minister Arthur.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, Latin America, Caribbean, North America
  • Author: Jerry Haar, Catherine Leroy-Beltrán, Oscar Beltrán
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: Despite compelling evidence that, for the most part , benefits from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have exceeded its costs in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, the policy debate continues in all three countries as to whether the accord has produced more “winners” or “losers.” In the case of Mexico, the focus country of this research project, both the Institutional Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Institucional — PRI) and the National Action Party (Partido Acción Nacional — PAN) have been supportive of NAFTA.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Canada, North America, Mexico
  • Author: Thomas Andrew O'Keefe
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: Almost from the day it was launched on March 26, 1991, skeptics have predicted the imminent collapse of the Common Market of the South (Mercado Común del Sur — MERCOSUR), while some economists have fretted about the project's supposed protectionist designs to create a trade fortress. The most memorable example of the latter was a 1996 report written by a World Bank economist that relied on out-of-date trade statistics and attributed to MERCOSUR policies that were actually pre-existing national automotive regimes. More recent tirades have tried to blame Argentina's economic meltdown on its MERCOSUR membership. A well-known economist from a New York City investment bank has even gone as far as to proclaim MERCOSUR dead. Given all the invective directed against efforts to integrate South America's Southern Cone economically over the past decade, it is not surprising that MERCOSUR is misunderstood by many in North America.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: South America, Latin America, North America
  • Author: Jerry Haar
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: The Latin American financial services sector has been profoundly affected by the sweeping economic, legal, and regulatory reforms of the 1990s. Conversely, the sector has extensively impacted the economic liberalization process that has been the hallmark of Latin American development from the late 1980s through the present. This paper highlights trends in the financial services sector; discusses the key drivers of change, both globally and regionally; illustrates how three of those drivers — mergers and acquisitions (M), technology, and customer demand — are revolutionizing this sector; and reviews the organizational and strategic responses by financial firms to an increasingly competitive environment.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization
  • Political Geography: Latin America
  • Author: Adam Isacson
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: Colombians had never seen President Andrés Pastrana as angry or as dejected as he appeared on television the night of Wednesday, February 20, 2002. His effort to end nearly 40 years of violence — a conflict with leftist guerrillas and paramilitary vigilantes that claimed over 3,500 lives in 2001 — had just received a fatal blow. More than three years of frustrating negotiations had come to nothing.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Colombia
  • Author: Gabriel Marcella
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: President Bush's sweeping support for Colombia underlines a remarkable turnaround in U.S. policy. Driven for years by the ambiguity of a counternarcotics-only approach, the United States has now adopted a more comprehensive recognition of Colombia's deeply rooted and complex security problem. Indeed, Colombia is a revealing paradigm for twenty-first century conflict. It is a surprisingly weak state under assault by a powerful combination of ungoverned national territory, insurgent terrorism of the left and right, international crime organized around drug trafficking, a deeply rooted counterculture of violence and impunity, ecological damage, and institutional corruption. Unlike the Cold War military and ideological confrontation between two superpowers, a country's debilities, rather than its strengths, breed the viruses that threaten the international community and the United State.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Colombia
  • Author: Joaquín Roy
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: The commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the birth of the Cuban Republic on May 20, 2002, provided an opportunity to review not only the survival of the Cuban regime, but also the whole history of the Cuban nation. 2 This event coincided with the historic visit of former President Jimmy Carter to Havana 3 and the reiteration of the unwillingness of the United States to terminate its embargo of Cuba, as expressed by President George W. Bush in an unprecedented speech in Washington and on a trip to Miami. 4 At the same time, friction has increased between Cuba and some influential Latin American countries, as in the special case of Mexico. The tension generated in the aftermath of the vote taken by the United Nations Commission for Human Rights in Geneva in April 2002, which criticized Cuba's human rights practices, revealed a definite crack in the comfortable linkage previously enjoyed by Castro with most countries of the hemisphere (with the notable exception of the United States). On October 23, 2002, when the European Parliament (EP) approved the award of the Sakharov Prize to Cuban dissident Oswaldo Payá for his record in the defense of human rights and especially for his leadership in the “Varela Project,” the overall panorama of the relations of the European Union (EU) with Cuba acquired a new look, signifying the confirmation of a long pattern of the EU's perceptions of and policy toward Cuba. 5 Cuba's decision to allow Payá to travel to Strasbourg to receive the award was taken simultaneously with the EU's announcement of the opening of a delegation in Cuba, while Castro surprisingly declared that Cuba would reapply to become a member of the Africa, Caribbean, Pacific (ACP) Cotonou Convention. It is time, therefore, for a historical review and a consideration of the most salient aspects of European-Cuban relations and some of the pending issues.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: Europe, Cuba, Caribbean
  • Author: Joaquin Roy
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: With the public announcement of a reshaped Plan Colombia in mid-2000, European attitudes toward involvement in attempting to solve the crisis of Colombia's endemic violence has oscillated from alarm to hope and, finally, to frustration. The overall scene has been dominated by a sense of powerlessness, mixed with realism and internal contradictions between member states and institutions of the European Union (EU).
  • Topic: International Relations, Government
  • Political Geography: Europe, Colombia
  • Author: Arne Melchior
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The article examines the currently expanding worldwide network of bilateral free trade agreements. Following regional integration in Europe and later the Americas, the process if East Asia has accelerated from 2002. A Distinctive feature of the current stage in the expansion of FTAs beyond geographical regions and into global space, hence challenging WTOs supremacy on inter-continental trade rules. Setbacks in the WTO Doha Round may stimulate a further move towards «global bilateralism». The more such agreements in place, the greater is the incentive for new ones. Even if political obstacles hinder some agreements, the process is currently accelerating. While it is rational for countries to pursue such agreements, they should in parallel work for multilateral trade liberalisation in order to reduce the discriminatory impact of FTAs. This is needed if we are to avoid that «Most Favoured Nation» treatment under the WTO actually becomes «Least Favoured Nation» treatment: Rules that only apply to countries that are left outside the «free trade race».
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Politics
  • Political Geography: America, Europe, East Asia
  • Author: Jens Chr.1 Andvig
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper studies the effects on corruption of having coexisting, contradictory norms for allocating different micro-coordination modes across society. One important reason for their coexistence is fast change, and links to Huntington's classical analysis of corruption are worked out. The notion of micro-coordination most is exposed and its usefulness for explaining corruption is argues through examples. The examples outlined are corruption in land allocation in Kenya, the economic transition in post-communist countries and the global telecommunications industry.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Kenya, Africa
  • Author: Daniel Heradstveit, David C. Pugh
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper looks at the rhetorical extension of the word “terrorism” to cover what used to be called guerrilla war, separatism, civil war, armed resistance and all other forms of political violence, down to and including non-lethal sabotage and vandalism. It begins by reflecting on how political power must be buttressed by legitimacy, which in turn involves the de-legitimisation of challengers. This is often achieved by assimilating political dissent to the “criminality” that by definition governments are created to combat. When governments use the term “order” to mean their own convenience, and the converse, this can effectively evoke the individual citizen's fear of personally suffering violence, even when he is in fact more at risk from the government itself than from its critics. In much the same way, “terror” no longer means government violence against citizens (as in the 19th century), nor solely violence against civilians by dissident groups; it has recently mutated to mean any armed resistance to the party deploying the rhetoric, even in conventional military forms. The terrorist label is the ultimate delegitimising technique, which may be employed to mobilise metropolitan populations to support a globally-coordinated suppression of resistance to the new world order.
  • Topic: Crime, Human Welfare, Politics, Terrorism
  • Author: Jens Chr.1 Andvig
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper seeks to explain the present high levels of corruption in the post-communist countries, i.e. the centrally planned economies where the communist party lost power as the outcome of a specific historical process where both the character of the former economic system as well as that policy shock itself played key roles. Among the possible explanatory factors the study focuses on the effects of production decline and the 'monetarisation' of the economy which started before the policy shock.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Government
  • Author: Leo A. Grünfeld, Andreas Moxnes
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: We identify the determinants of service trade and foreign affiliate sales in a gravity model, using recently collected bilateral data for the OECD countries and their trading partners, as well as new indicators for barriers to service imports and foreign affiliate sales. We emphasize the strong links between service FDI and trade, since a large proportion of trade is facilitated through foreign affiliate sales. Trade barriers and corruption in the importing country have a strong negative impact on service trade and foreign affiliate sales. We find a strong home market effect in service trade, and rich countries do not tend to import more, which may indicate that rich countries have a competitive advantage in service trade. Free trade agreements do not contribute to increased service trade. A full liberalization of international trade in services in our model, lifts exports by as much as 50% for some countries, and no less than 30%.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, Science and Technology
  • Author: Axel Borchgrevink
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The present study examines nine Fredskorpset exchange projects, in order to assess the degree to which the goals specified have been reached. The basis for the exchanges is the partnerships established between institutions in Norway and counterpart entities in the South. The projects studied encompass a wide variety of such partnerships, illustrating the flexible and innovative attitude that Fredskorpset has shown during its first two years of operation. By basing its work on such partnerships, Fredskorpset has avoided some of the weaknesses of traditional volunteer programs. In terms of achievements, there are variations among the projects. While individual learning of participants was strong in all cases, the degree to which institutional benefits were achieved varied. Well-matched partners with sufficiently strong institutional structures; thorough planning of exchanges; and participants selected in accordance with well-defined needs for professional skills were seen to be important factors for successful projects.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, Norway
  • Author: Daniel Heradstveit, G. Matthew Bonham
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The respondents feared an American attack, and regarded their membership in «the Axis of Evil» as a stab in the back after Iranian help in Afghanistan. This demonisation was seen overwhelmingly in terms of American geopolitical designs, ignorance and downright irrationality – an expansionist superpower that is dangerously out of control. The WTC attack initially caused a strengthening of Iranian national unity and a more coherent foreign policy, but most of the respondents regard «the Axis of Evil» as killing the nascent dialogue with the USA stone dead and coming as a godsend to the conservatives and the ultras.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, America, Iran, Middle East
  • Author: Axel Borchgrevink, Anníbal Ramírez Rodrígues
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Since 1997, FADCANIC has been implementing a training program for unqualified teachers working in primary schools of Nicaragua's Southern autonomous region of the Atlantic Coast. SAIH, the Norwegian NGO that has been funding this program, has commissioned the present evaluation. It concludes that the program has had a significant impact in terms of improving education in the region through addressing one of the most urgent needs of the educational sector, namely teacher qualifications. However, the evaluation also points out a number of other limitations for the sector, including lack of resources for materials, physical infrastructure and reasonable teacher salaries, as well as general social problems of the region. It recommends that the program is continued, and that even greater emphasis is put upon creating a teacher education appropriate to the multilingual and -cultural reality.
  • Topic: Development, Education, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Norway, Central America, Nicaragua
  • Author: Indra Øverland
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This article examines how various organisations divide and coordinate their conflict prevention and development aid in the Samtskhe-Javakheti region of southern Georgia, and how that coordination might be improved. There have been numerous early warnings of impending violent conflict and calls for conflict prevention in Samtskhe-Javakheti. Counter-claims have, however, been asserted that the region's problem is in fact not one of potential violent ethnic conflict, but rather one of poverty and peripherality, and that exaggerated, uncoordinated early warning might in fact inflate conflicts that were not initially acute. At one point it seemed that the Samtskhe-Javakheti case would provide an example of uncoordinated and one-sided focus on conflict prevention and early warning on the part of international organisations, and its potentially detrimental consequences. An overview of the activities of the organisations, however, shows the contrary. A critical, sensitive and deconstructive perspective is already incorporated into their approach, and their activities are well coordinated. More formalised institutions are nonetheless needed to ensure the inclusion of large multilateral actors such as the World Bank and Council of Europe in the process, and consistent coordination in other regions too.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Development, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe, Georgia
  • Author: Indra Øverland
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper argues that local media have been of great importance in the escalation of inter-ethnic conflicts in the former Soviet Union, and that conflict prevention by the OSCE in the region initially did not focus appropriately on media issues. During the past few years, however, media issues have increasingly come to preoccupy the OSCE, chiefly in connection with human rights issues and freedom of speech, but to some extent also as an element of conflict prevention. The importance of local media for OSCE conflict prevention is analysed in terms of the activities of the High Commissioner for National Minorities and Representative on Freedom of the Media, and OSCE annual reports.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights
  • Political Geography: Russia, Soviet Union
  • Author: Ian Anthony, Morten Bremer Maerli
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: In June 2002, the G8 countries pledged 20 billion dollars over ten years to their “Global Partnership against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction” (Global Partnership). Under this initiative, the G8 countries will support specific cooperation projects, initially in Russia, to address non-proliferation, disarmament, counter-terrorism and nuclear safety issues. Among priority concerns are the dismantlement of decommissioned nuclear submarines and the disposition of fissile materials.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Morten Bremer Maerli (ed), Allistair Millar(ed)
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This report summarises the conference “NATO Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policies in a Changing Threat Environment” convened in , Oslo, 12 May 2003. The conference was co-organised by the Fourth Freedom Forum, the Norwegian Atlantic Committee, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. It was co-sponsored by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Norwegian Ministry of Defence and the Ploughshares Foundation.
  • Topic: NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Norway, Oslo
  • Author: Morten Bremer Maerli
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: In accordance with Resolution 1441, unanimously passed by the UN Security Council, Iraq on November 7th, 2002, submitted a declaration of its activities concerning weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Copies of the declaration were forwarded to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and later to the permanent members of the Security Council. The declaration described the various methods used by Iraq in trying to produce nuclear material suitable for weapons, as well as the many sites involved in the nuclear program. In the nearly 12,000-page document Iraq claimed that it had no current WMD programs. However, intelligence analysts from the United States and other nations immediately began to scrutinize the document, and senior US officials quickly rejected the claims made by Iraq.
  • Topic: Security, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Arne Melchior
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper presents evidence from a limited survey undertaken among Norwegian ICT firms in 2001, supplemented with other statistical evidence. Corresponding to the limited production of ICT hardware in Norway, the hardware firms covered by the survey were dominated by sales outlets of foreign firms. While these firms are on average small and with a modest skill requirement, some of them are larger and more skill-intensive due to the provision of related software and services. Within-firm learning, higher education as well as sector- and industry-wide knowledge externalities generally matter to IT firms. Education is ranked third, and is more important for software and services than for hardware. Knowledge externalities are less important for foreign-owned firms. 2/3 of the firms surveyed produce various combinations of hardware, software and services, with software+services as the most frequent combination, composed by firms that are on average clearly larger than the sample average. Such firms rely more on learning within the firms and less on sectorwide knowledge externalities than other IT firms. Adaptation of products to individual customers is important for many IT goods, and implies that e.g. imported software frequently generates substantial domestic employment in related services. The survey tentatively suggests that such complementarities in production may be an important aspect of IT production. Norwegian IT exports are generally small, but pure software producers in the sample had larger exports.
  • Topic: Economics, Education, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Norway
  • Author: Jens Chr.1 Andvig
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper explores the apparently high incidence of corruption in those former socialist countries where the Communist Party lost power. It argues that part of the explanation of the high corruption incidence is to be sought in the simultaneous production decline which gives rise to a Schumpeter effect, where former bureaucrats are becoming corruption entrepreneurs. Another important factor is the swift change in the ruling norms giving rise to a Huntington effect an overshooting of the applicability of the market mechanism. An important driver of both effects is the monetation of the centralised multi-tiered bartering system of the old socialist economies. That process is briefly compared to older forms of market expansion into decentralised non-market agricultural economies as analysed by Polanyi and Marx.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Industrial Policy
  • Author: Jens Chr.1 Andvig
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The OECD's Anti-Bribery Convention may be regarded as the strongest international expression of the recent recognition of corruption as a major global issue. The convention aims to contain trans-border corruption by making it illegal for citizens and enterprises located in the countries that have signed the convention to get involved in corrupt transactions with officials abroad. Working out the convention the legal regulation of transborder corruption has become harmonised across countries. Given the initial success, the question has been raised whether the convention should be extended or modified in some way. New policy instruments have been proposed; greater precision in how to deal with middlemen has been urged.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Arne Melchior
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: International trade costs may be sunk and not proportional to sales. The paper explores this theoretically, by allowing firms to invest in sales channels or marketing in order to increase demand in each market. The returns to such investments will, ceteris paribus, be higher in markets with lower variable trade costs (e.g. transport costs). Firms will therefore invest and sell more at home than in foreign markets, and more in foreign markets with low variable trade costs. Sunk export costs will therefore amplify the trade-reducing impact of other trade barriers, and dampen the «home market effect» whereby large countries tend to be net exporters of differentiated goods.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
  • Abstract: The wars in which the Republic of Serbia1 took part during the nineties left behind a multitude of easily accessible small arms that soon appeared on the streets of all Serbian cities. The ready availability of uncontrolled firearms in any society is concern enough, but in Serbia's case this diffusion of small arms into society occurred against a backdrop of economic crisis, an unprecedented growth of criminal activity, and a nationalistic discourse of 'patriotic wars' in which violence, gun-use, militarism and machismo were mythologised to serve political ends.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Civil Society
  • Political Geography: Europe, Serbia
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
  • Abstract: Borders communities are more than just entry and exit points to a country. In the world of porous borders and transborder crime, these communities take on various aspects of the activities pursued in their environs. Some of these activities are clearly evident, such as the increase in youth appearing to be drug users. Other signs are more difficult to pinpoint, as one person's businessman becomes another's smuggler. These characteristics are exacerbated by the context of a post-conflict situation where tensions and isolation cause greater conspiracy theories rather than greater cooperation and coordination.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
  • Abstract: This policy document forms the first part of a process of work that focuses on community-based policing (CBP) and how it can be implemented in conjunction with small arms and light weapons (SALW) initiatives. The document will serve as a framework for the South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SEESAC) to guide the development and implementation of CBP in the region. It will also form part of a set of tools that the UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BCPR) is producing. The second phase of this work will provide an operational framework for the UNDP Country Office in Albania for implementing CBP in Albania.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development
  • Political Geography: Europe, Albania
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
  • Abstract: The Small Arms and Light Weapons Control (SALWC) project was undertaken in 2002-2003 by UNDP in co-operation with the Albanian government, at a programme cost to the international community of US$ 3.47.8 million. Its objectives were to help remove illegally held weapons and explosives from the population, to make the population more aware of the dangers of the illegal possession of such items and to enhance the ability of the authorities to control the private possession of arms and ammunition.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Civil Society, Government, Population
  • Political Geography: Europe, Albania
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
  • Abstract: This study was commissioned by the South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SEESAC). The purpose of the Ammunition Detection Study is to determine if there is evidence to support the SEESAC hypothesis that it may be more productive to specifically target the detection of ammunition for Small Arms and Light Weapons rather than the weapons themselves. SEESAC is a developing organisation, with a responsibility to identify information on the precise level of smuggling activity and also advise on measures to reduce cross border trafficking; clearly current search methodologies used to detect weapons and ammunition within the region are an important component of this advice. Following discussions with the SEESAC Team Leader a set of assumptions, to support the Terms of Reference (TOR), were agreed.Initial desktop research examined weapons and ammunition design and manufacture to determine if and why weapons can be more easily concealed than ammunition and what constituent parts are common or exclusive to one particular commodity. Further analysis was conducted to determine if ammunition and weapons are consistently transported together and examples of occurrences are provided. The investigation has involved visits to specialist organisations and national security agencies that have undertaken to provide data on suitable search and detection methodologies. (PDF, 30 pages, 1.02 MB)  Â
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics
  • Political Geography: Bosnia, Moldova, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Bulgaria, Balkans, Romania, Macedonia, Albania, Croatia
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
  • Abstract: In November 2001 the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe adopted a Regional Implementation Plan on Combating the Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons in South Eastern Europe, which provides a framework of approaches and measures to tackle SALW issues that can be adopted by the countries of the region and supported by international organisations and bi-lateral donors. The Implementation Plan included provision for the establishment of a regional clearinghouse to support its implementation, and on the basis of this mandate SEESAC was officially launched in Belgrade on the 08 May 2002 as a joint UNDP and Stability Pact initiative.
  • Topic: Arms Control and Proliferation, Civil Society, Government
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United States Agency for International Development
  • Abstract: This resource guide is a joint effort of USAID's Office of Democracy and Governance and Office of Education, responding to the need to promote greater policy and program linkages between the Agency's democracy and governance (DG) and education sectors. The specific goals of this DG and education resource guide are to raise awareness among education sector professionals at USAID about the role of the DG sector in shaping education policies and programs; to raise awareness among USAID DG professionals about education as an important DG issue; and to provide frameworks and best practice examples to help guide joint programming among USAID education and DG staff.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Democratization, Education, Government
  • Author: Jeffrey Clark, Lia Juliani, Ann von Briesen Lewis
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United States Agency for International Development
  • Abstract: The report which follows constitutes the final evaluation of the three year Office of Transition Initiatives operation in East Timor. It stems from an independent examination and analysis of OTI's program in that country, as it emerged from the violence of September 1999 and faced the multiple challenges inherent in constructing a new government and in defining a new nation. The evaluation, conducted in October and November of 2002, was undertaken through a big picture approach meant to capture the entirety of OTI's experience in East Timor. The evaluators concentrated on two fundamental questions: Is there evidence that OTI's interventions had impact? Did the interventions deliver on the stated objectives?
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Southeast Asia
  • Author: Matthew Pinsker, Scott Hancock
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Clarke Center at Dickinson College
  • Abstract: "Among historians," one scholar suggested just a few years ago, "the underground railroad has become a dead issue." As if to confirm that judgment, the most important recent study of runaway slaves contains only two index entries for the Underground Railroad. The authors of that widely acclaimed monograph, John Hope Franklin and Loren Schweninger, are candid about the reasons for this decision. "Although historians continue to disagree about various aspects of the Underground Railroad," they write, "few deny that even today it is shrouded in myth and legend."
  • Topic: Human Rights, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Hsien-Hen Lu, Younghwan Song, Mary Clare Lennon, J. Lawrence Aber
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
  • Abstract: By analyzing data from the Current Population Survey March Supplements, Living at the Edge explores the following questions about children in low-income families in the United States: What are the overall changes in the low-income and poverty rates for children over the past quarter century? How has the population of children in low-income families changed over the past decade? Which children are more likely to live in low-income families? How have changes in parental employment status affected the likelihood of children living in low-income families? What are the state by state variations in child low-income and poverty rates, and how have these changed in the last decade? How does a more inclusive definition of family income and expenses affect our understanding of the poverty and near-poverty rates of children in low-income families? This report helps document significant improvements in the child lowincome rate as well as the significant decrease in the proportion of children who relied on public assistance during the 1990s. However, Living at the Edge also finds a notable increase in the share of children who lived in near-poor families (those with incomes between 100 and 200 percent of the poverty line) among children in low-income families during the 1990s. Many disadvantaged groups of children, including those with young parents, minority parents, parents with limited education, or unmarried parents, were less likely to live in poor or lowincome families in the late 1990s than such children a decade earlier. The improvement in the child low-income rates of these disadvantaged groups was closely related to an increase in parental employment during the late 1990s. However, the low-income rate worsened for children whose more educated parent had a high-school diploma but no college education. For children of many disadvantaged social groups, parental employment appears to do less to protect them from economic hardship then it did a decade earlier. The groups that suffered the most in reduced economic security given parental employment status were those in the medium risk ranks (children in families with at least one parent between ages 25 to 39, children whose more educated parent had only has a high school diploma, and in father-only families). The report also notes that the official measure of poverty ignores the burden of medical and work related expenses as well as taxes and therefore tends to underestimate the share of children in near-poor and low-income families facing economic insecurity. Finally, we discuss the policy implications for our findings.
  • Topic: Economics, Human Welfare, Poverty
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Kenneth L. Leonard
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
  • Abstract: The 'active patient' is introduced in this paper. She is the same person as the rational peasant that we have known for at least three decades. She is a rational agent seeking health care in an environment characterized by market failures (particularly agency in the supply of medical quality) and imperfect institutional responses to these failures. We show evidence that patients significantly increase their welfare by choosing between various different providers and matching their illnesses to the resources that are available at these different providers. This paper suggests that continuing to view patients as passive participants in the health care market gives way to misleading policy suggestions and may in fact reduce the welfare of patients.
  • Topic: Economics, Human Welfare, Poverty
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Henning Hillmann
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
  • Abstract: Studies of state formation tend to emphasize the demise of localism through centralization. This article specifies empirically the social structural conditions that strengthen localism understate formation. The historical case is the creation of Vermont during the Revolutionary War and the local factionalism it involved. Probate records are used to reconstruct credit networks that provided the relational foundation for localism and factional identities. The evidence demonstrates that network segregation between factional regions intensified over time, and was supported by strong cohesion within these regions. Local brokers who forged cohesion within factions consistently attained important political offices while mediators between opposing factions increasingly failed to obtain offices. This structural process coincided with the shift of Vermont's domestic politics into national level conflicts between Federalists and Jeffersonians. Within this escalation local and national factions crystallized around equivalent pairs of binary categorical oppositions. T h e evocation of national politics directly resonated with local lines of conflict, and reinforced factional identities and localism.
  • Topic: Government, Human Welfare, Politics, War
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Subham Chaudhuri, Patrick Heller
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
  • Abstract: Under the “People's Campaign for Decentralised Planning,” initiated by the government of the Indian state of Kerala in 1996, significant planning and budgetary functions that had previously been controlled by state-level ministries, were devolved to the lowest tier of government—municipalities in urban areas, and gram panchayats (village councils) in ural areas. A key element of the campaign was the requirement that every gram panchayat organize open village assemblies—called Gram Sabhas—twice a year through which citizens could participate in formulating planning priorities, goals and projects. Using data from the first two years of the campaign, on the levels and composition of participation in the Gram Sabhas in all of Kerala's 990 gram panchayats we empirically assess the explanatory power of the dominant existing paradigms of participation—social capital, rational choice, and social-historical. The basic patterns we document, as well as our more detailed analyses of the impact that a range of spatial, socioeconomic and political factors had on the levels and social depth of participation, provide broad support for a dynamic and contingent view of participation, a perspective that recognizes the “plasticity of participation.”
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Human Welfare, Governance
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Vladimir Matic
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Public International Law Policy Group
  • Abstract: Nationalism remains a potent force in Serbia, strongly affecting the politicking within the political elite regarding final status issues in Kosovo. The democratic forces are not immune from Kosovo-related nationalism and have at times adopted hardline positions to diminish their vulnerabilities in the political struggle. Since the end of the Kosovo war the West has done nothing to dispel the perception in Belgrade that Serbia's legal claim of sovereignty over Kosovo remains valid in principle and of equivalent standing as an issue “on the table” with Kosovo Albanians' insistence on independence in the prelude to negotiations. Belgrade ignores the fact that, with virtually no Albanians in Kosovo willing to work with them, they have no Albanian partners in pursuing this goal. Kosovo Serbs also display considerable mistrust of Belgrade's concern for their interests. The EU and UNMIK have attempted to create a framework for progress on the issue, but success will hinge on the willingness of the United States to exercise diplomatic leadership to resolve the deadlock.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Albania
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Public International Law Policy Group
  • Abstract: The results of Serbia's December 2003 parliamentary elections accelerated concerns that the situation in the Balkans is seriously deteriorating. On 2 March 2004 the Public International Law Policy Group and The Century Foundation convened a roundtable of sixteen people deeply involved in Balkan issues from the region, Europe, and the United States to review the general situation in the Balkans and examine the approach of the United States and European Union (EU) to the region.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Politics, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Serbia, Balkans
  • Author: Vladimir Matic
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Public International Law Policy Group
  • Abstract: The assassinated prime minister of Serbia, Zoran Djindjic, appears to have won in death much of what he could not achieve in life. His concept of Serbia's way out of the domestic political and economic crisis through reform and membership in a democratic Europe has prevailed over one representing the past; Serbia is finally open to cooperation with the world. But the national consensus he was dreaming about does not yet exist. The prevalence and reach of networks of organized crime and corruption limit prospects for significant further structural change and more serious consolidation of the rule of law. The Serbian people have put aside for the moment their infatuation with radical nationalism rather than exorcising it from their society and intellectual culture. The success of such reform as has been implemented is far from secured. For the time being the joint efforts of the leading pro-democratization parties of Serbia and Montenegro have brought about the beginning of long-postponed changes in the army and initiated far-reaching reforms. This allows continuation of reforms in Serbian services and strengthening of the basic institutions of democracy. If continued, expanded and intensified, this course will take both Serbia and Montenegro irrespective of the final destiny of their Union closer to democracy and to the European Union and the United States.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Serbia
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Public International Law Policy Group
  • Abstract: As the situation in Iraq continues to stabilize, the people of Iraq will turn to the task of reconstituting an Iraqi state. One of the first steps in this process will be to design, agree upon, and implement a new constitutional structure. While drafting a new constitution is a difficult and contentious process for any country, the challenges are substantially magnified for Iraq given its complex mosaic of ethnic and religious identities, the history of repression under Saddam Hussein, the necessary presence of American forces, and Iraq's complex relations with its neighboring states.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, War
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: James Lilley
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Public International Law Policy Group
  • Abstract: You have clearly worked over the complicated relationship between Taiwan and China. I can only try to build on what Dr. Lin Chong--pin and Mr. Rostow have already described so lucidly. I would like to point out first that China chooses, for both tactical and emotional reasons, to place a special heavy emphasis on its relationship with Taiwan and to its point that Taiwan is part of China. Emotional, because this stirs up nationalism among a skeptical Chinese elite who have lost ideology. Tactical, because driving home the unity and sovereignty themes forces the U.S. on the defensive, i.e., the U.S. interferes in China's internal affairs, a cardinal sin in China's own lexicon. In reality, however, China has been practical. For almost fifty years Chinese propaganda has focused on Taiwan as a pure target, but objective circumstances have changed and so has China's strategy. China took over the Ta Chen Islands peacefully in 1954, its last significant territorial acquisition in the Taiwan Strait. Its later more militaristic approach against a well--defended Quemoy (Chin men) failed in 1958, and China retreated with much bluster and firing of cannons, many of them empty.
  • Topic: Politics, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Taiwan, Asia
  • Author: Peter R. Rosenblatt
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Public International Law Policy Group
  • Abstract: The title of my contribution to this discussion raises a point that is easy to overlook in discussions relating to the legal status of the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan. The range of options across the Strait is not confined, as the title of this conference suggests, to the reunification of China or Taiwan's independence, although either of these is obviously a possibility. A more likely option, in my judgment, is some future status for the ROC which involves neither incorporation into the People's Republic of China nor the challenging step of a declaration of “independence” as the Republic of Taiwan. This third option embraces a multiplicity of status shadings involving a continuing evolution of the ROC's current status of de facto independence. It is this option that I would like to address.
  • Topic: Politics, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: China, Taiwan, Asia
  • Author: Robert J. Vigfusson, Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: We investigate what happens to hours worked after a positive shock to technology, using the aggregate technology series computed in Basu, Fernald and Kimball (1999). We conclude that hours worked rise after such a shock.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: John W. Schindler, John G. Fernald, Prakash Loungani, Alan J. Ahearne
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: Do increases in China's exports reduce exports of other emerging Asian economies? We find that correlations between Chinese export growth and that of other emerging Asian economies are actually positive (though usually not significant), even after controlling for trading-partner income growth and real effective exchange rates. We also present results from a VAR estimation of aggregate trade equations on the relative importance of foreign income and exchange rates in determining Asian export growth. Although exchange rates do matter for export performance, the income growth of trading partners matters even more. In addition, we examine specific products and find evidence that a considerable shifting of trade patterns is taking place, consistent with a 'flying geese' pattern in which China and ASEAN-4 move into the product space vacated by the NIEs. Our results suggest that China and emerging Asia are both comrades (overall) and competitors (in specific products).
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Robert J. Vigfusson
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This paper studies how much of productivity fluctuations are industry specific versus how much are country specific. Using data on manufacturing industries in Canada and the United States, the paper shows that the correlation between cross-border pairings of the same industry are more often highly correlated than previously thought. In addition, the paper confirms earlier findings that the similarity of input use can help describe the co-movement of productivity fluctuations across industries.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States, Canada, North America
  • Author: Jon Faust, Brian M. Doyle
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This paper investigates breaks in the variability and co-movement of output, consumption, and investment in the G-7 economies. In contrast with most other papers on co-movement, we test for changes in co-movement allowing for breaks in mean and variance. Despite claims that rising integration among these economies has increased output correlations among them, we find no clear evidence of an increase in correlation of growth rates of output, consumption, or investment. This finding is true even for the United States and Canada, which have seen a tremendous increase in bilateral trade shares, and for the members of the euro area in the G-7.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Canada, North America
  • Author: Luis-Felipe Zanna
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: In a small open economy model with traded and non-traded goods this paper characterizes conditions under which interest rate rules induce aggregate instability by generating multiple equilibria. These conditions depend not only on how aggressively the rule responds to inflation, but also on the measure of inflation to which the government responds, on the degree of openness of the economy and on the degree of exchange rate pass-through. As an important policy implication, this paper finds that to avoid aggregate instability in the economy the government should implement an aggressive rule with respect to the inflation rate of the sector that has sticky prices. That is the non-traded goods inflation rate. As a by-product of this analysis, it is shown that "fear-of-floating" governments that follow a rule that responds to both the CPI-inflation rate and the nominal depreciation rate or governments that implement "super-inertial" interest rate smoothing rules may actually induce multiple equilibria in their economies. This paper also shows that for forward-looking rules, the determinacy of equilibrium conditions depends not only on the degree of openness of the economy but also on the weight that the government puts on expected future CPI-inflation rates. In fact rules that are "excessively" forward-looking always lead to multiple equilibria.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Joseph W. Gruber
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This study examines the impact of productivity growth on the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Canada. Recently it has been suggested that higher productivity growth is responsible for a shift in the U.S. Phillips curve that occurred in the late 1990s. This paper examines whether the Phillips curve in Canada shifted in a manner similar to that of the United States, and the degree to which higher productivity growth explains this shift.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Canada, North America
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: The United States faces stealthy adversaries who have demonstrated both motives and means to inflict grave damage on the U.S. homeland. The nation's strategy in response to this type of adversary is clear: engage the threat as far as possible from the U.S. homeland, on its turf. This approach requires a multi-agency governmental effort, with the Department of Defense playing a major role.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: John H. Rogers, Jonathan H. Wright, Jon Faust, Shing-Yi B. Wang
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: Many recent papers have studied movements in stock, bond, and currency prices over short windows of time around macro announcements. This paper adds to the announcement effects literature in two ways. First, we study the joint announcement effects across a broad range of assets--exchange rates and U.S. and foreign term structures. In order to evaluate whether the joint effects can be reconciled with conventional theory, we interpret the joint movements in light of uncovered interest rate parity or changes in risk premia. For several real macro announcements, we find that a stronger than expected release appreciates the dollar today, but that it must either (i) lower the relative risk premium for holding foreign currency rather than dollars, or (ii) imply considerable future expected dollar depreciation. The latter implies an overshooting behavior akin to that described by Dornbusch (1976). Second, we use a longer span of high frequency data than has been common in announcement work. A longer span of high frequency data contributes to the precision of our estimates and allows us to explore the possibility that the effects of macro surprises on asset prices have varied over time. We find evidence, for example, that PPI releases had a larger effect on U.S. interest rates before about 1992 than subsequently.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: David Bowman
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which a decline in market power could have contributed to the general decline in inflation rates experienced in developed countries during the 1990s.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Joseph E. Gagnon
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: Most macroeconomic models imply that faster output growth tends to lower a country's trade balance by raising its imports with little change to its exports. Krugman (1989) proposed a model in which countries grow by producing new varieties of goods. In his model, faster-growing countries are able to export these new goods and maintain balanced trade without suffering any deterioration in their terms of trade. This paper analyzes the growth of U.S. imports from different source countries and finds strong support for Krugman's model.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: Two years ago, we responded to attacks on America by launching a global war against terrorism that has removed gathering threats to America and our allies and has liberated the Iraqi and Afghan people from oppression and fear.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Economics
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Iraq, America, Middle East
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: Department of Defense (DoD) research, development, and acquisition policies, funding and program decisions, have a major impact on competition and industry transformation. DoD assessments of proposed business combinations (generally, domestic and foreign firm mergers, acquisitions, and joint ventures) must complement such policies and decisions to sustain credible competition in an evolving industrial environment.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Development, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: The Defense Science Board (DSB) Task Force on Joint Experimentation was established to examine the joint experimentation programs and activities at the Joint Forces Command (JFCOM) and to recommend ways to enhance the contributions of joint experimentation to transformation. The Task Force assessed the goals, process, and substance of JFCOM's experimentation program. The Task Force also provided an external review of the Millennium Challenge 02 (MC02) experiment.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Development
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: The Task Force was charged to examine the use of red teams in the Department of Defense and recommend ways that such teams could be of greater value to the department. Our Terms of Reference and task force membership are provided in Appendices 1 and 2.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Jonathan H. Wright
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: Recent empirical work has considered the prediction of inflation by combining the information in a large number of time series. One such method that has been found to give consistently good results consists of simple equal weighted averaging of the forecasts over a large number of different models, each of which is a linear regression model that relates inflation to a single predictor and a lagged dependent variable. In this paper, I consider using Bayesian Model Averaging for pseudo out-of-sample prediction of US inflation, and find that it gives more accurate forecasts than simple equal weighted averaging. This superior performance is consistent across subsamples and inflation measures. Meanwhile, both methods substantially outperform a naive time series benchmark of predicting inflation by an autoregression.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Jonathan H. Wright
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: Exchange rate forecasting is hard and the seminal result of Meese and Rogoff (1983) that the exchange rate is well approximated by a driftless random walk, at least for prediction purposes, has never really been overturned despite much effort at constructing other forecasting models. However, in several other macro and financial forecasting applications, researchers in recent years have considered methods for forecasting that combine the information in a large number of time series. One method that has been found to be remarkably useful for out-of-sample prediction is simple averaging of the forecasts of different models. This often seems to work better than the forecasts from any one model. Bayesian Model Averaging is a closely related method that has also been found to be useful for out-of-sample prediction. This starts out with many possible models and prior beliefs about the probability that each model is the true one. It then involves computing the posterior probability that each model is the true one, and averages the forecasts from the different models, weighting them by these posterior probabilities. This is effectively a shrinkage methodology, but with shrinkage over models not just over parameters. I apply this Bayesian Model Averaging approach to pseudo-out-of-sample exchange rate forecasting over the last ten years. I find that it compares quite favorably to a driftless random walk forecast. Depending on the currency-horizon pair, the Bayesian Model Averaging forecasts sometimes do quite a bit better than the random walk benchmark (in terms of mean square prediction error), while they never do much worse. The forecasts generated by this model averaging methodology are however very close to (but not identical to) those from the random walk forecast.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States