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  • Author: Barry D. Watts
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Since the end of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, there has been growing discussion of the possibility that technological advances in the means of combat would produce ftmdamental changes in how future wars will be fought. A number of observers have suggested that the nature of war itself would be transformed. Some proponents of this view have gone so far as to predict that these changes would include great reductions in, if not the outright elimination of, the various impediments to timely and effective action in war for which the Prussian theorist and soldier Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) introduced the term "friction." Friction in war, of course, has a long historical lineage. It predates Clausewitz by centuries and has remained a stubbornly recurring factor in combat outcomes right down to the 1991 Gulf War. In looking to the future, a seminal question is whether Clausewitzian friction would succumb to the changes in leading-edge warfare that may lie ahead, or whether such impediments reflect more enduring aspects of war that technology can but marginally affect. It is this question that the present essay will examine.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, Government, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Soviet Union, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Ralph A. Cossa
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The political, economic, and security environment of the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century will be shaped in very large part by the interrelationships among the United States, Japan, China, and Russia. To the extent these four nations can cooperate, a generally benign environment can develop in which the challenges sure to develop in the region can be managed. Conversely, tensions and conflict among the four will have a profoundly destabilizing impact regionally, if not globally.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: Russia, Japan, China, Asia, Northeast Asia
  • Author: Alan L. Gropman
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: At a dinner during the Teheran Conference in December 1943, Joseph Stalin praised United States manufacturing: I want to tell you from the Russian point of view, what the President and the United States have done to win the war. The most important things in this war are machines. The United States has proven that it can turn out from 8,000 to 10,000 airplanes per month. Russia can only turn out, at most. 3,000 airplanes a month .... The United States, therefore, is a country of machines. Without the use of those machines, through Lend-Lease, we would lose this war.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Vietnam
  • Author: Steven Philip Kramer, Irene Kyriakopoulos
  • Publication Date: 03-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: When political observers talk about European security, they invariably refer to the challenges Western Europe faces on its peripheries from a renationalized Russia, conflicts in the Balkans, and Islamic fundamentalism in North Africa. Rarely do they imagine that the greatest dangers to the new Europe may come from within, that the kind of stability Europe has enjoyed since World War II could be merely a passing chapter in history, not a transcendence of history. Without suggesting that there is necessarily a worst case ending, this study will argue that there is indeed a series of crises converging on post-Cold War Europe that threaten its stability and that need to be addressed by European policy makers and taken into account by Americans.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, War
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, North Africa
  • Author: Mark Roberts
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: In her book, States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China (1979), revolutionary authority and sociologist Theda Skocpol states: The repressive state organizations of the prerevolutionary regime have to be weakened before mass revolutionary action can succeed, or even emerge. Indeed, historically, mass rebellious action has not been able, in itself, to overcome state repression. Instead, military pressures from abroad … have been necessary to undermine repression.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Religion
  • Political Geography: Russia, China, Middle East, France
  • Author: M.E. Ahrari, James Beal
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The dismantlement of the Soviet Union also brought about the liberation of six Central Asian Muslim republics—Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan (figure 1). Although Azerbaijan is part of the Caucasus region, it is included in this study because: The independence of that country, like that of the Central Asian states, was brought about as a result of the dismantlement of the Soviet Union. Azerbaijan, like its Central Asian counterparts, is a Muslim state, and faces similar politico-economic problems. Azerbaijan's conflict with Armenia involving Nagorno-Karabkh reminds one of a number of conflicts in the Central Asian region. These include a seething ethnic conflict in Kazakhstan (involving the Khazaks and the Slavs), the ongoing civil war in Tajikistan "along ethnic, national, and religious lines (since the Russian forces are "also involved in this civil war), and the ethnic conflict in the Fargana valley that cuts across the borders of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Like the economies of its Central Asian neighbors, the Azeri economy was largely dependent on the economy of the former Soviet Union. Consequently, like its other neighbors, Azerbaijan is also busy establishing economic self-sufficiency, along with strengthening its religious political, linguistic, and ethnic identities.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Religion
  • Political Geography: Central Asia, Middle East, Soviet Union
  • Author: S. Neil MacFarlane, Larry Minear, Stephen D. Shenfield
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: This is a study of the world's response to internal armed conflicts in the Republic of Georgia. The principal features of that response on the humanitarian side were the delivery of emergency assistance and the protection of human rights. That response also included the establishment of peacekeeping operations, both by the Commonwealth of Independent States, with the United Nations' blessing, and by the United Nations itself. This report assesses the performance and effectiveness of humanitarian and peacekeeping activities and reviews the interaction between the two.
  • Topic: Peacekeeping
  • Political Geography: Georgia
  • Author: Wayne S. Smith, Cathy L. Jrade, Geaorge Monteiro, Nelson R. Orringer, Louis A. Pérez,Jr, Ivan A. Schulman, Thomas E. Skidmore
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: Thirty-five years ago, Cuba was at the center of a Cold War confrontation that brought us closer to the brink of a nuclear holocaust than we had ever been before. The 1962 missile crisis, eventually solved by diplomacy, was the highest point of danger in the troubled history of mankind since World War II. That terrifying experience alone should justify our efforts to understand how Cuba has reached its present moment in history.
  • Political Geography: Cuba
  • Author: Antonio Donini
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: As it struggles through the first decade of the post-Cold War era, the international community is confronted with an unprecedented increase in the number of internal conflicts and complex emergencies. With some 120 active wars and more starting each year than are ending, the world is a much less safer place than ten years ago. Never since the end of World War II has conflict-related displacement reached such levels. Fifty million refugees and internally displaced persons, or one in every 115 living human beings, require assistance. Tens of millions more do not show up on the statistics, such as the direct and indirect casualties of conflict and violent or forgotten crises. More than 90 percent of the casualties are civilians.
  • Author: Larry Minear, Thomas G. Weiss, William G. O'Neill, Robert Maguire, Edwige Blutansky, Jaques Fomerand, Sarah Zaidi
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: In his inaugural speech February 7, 1991, President Jean-Bertrand Aristide told representatives of the international community that Haiti “will be looking forward to a close cooperation of our countries with mutual support and assistance.” That cooperation would help the country fulfill its dreams of becoming “a democracy [that] will mean justice and well-being for all.