Search

You searched for:
Number of results to display per page

Search Results

  • Author: Bjorn Møller
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The 1991 Gulf War was accompanied by talk of a 'New World Order', not least in the USA. The implied promise was one of a greater respect for international law, a strengthening of the United Nations and a determined effort for arms control and disarmament, both globally and regionally. The paper evaluates developments since then, with a special focus on the accomplishments in the military sphere. In particular, it assesses the contribution of the United States to the creation of this new world (military) order. In conclusion, the US is found to be both part of the problem, because of its excessive military spending and penchant for unilateralism, and an indispensable part of the solution.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Law, United Nations
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Grzegorz Ekiert, Jan Kubik
  • Publication Date: 10-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
  • Abstract: The paper argues that a robust and assertive civil society has emerged in post-communist Poland during the first few years following the fall of state socialism. Civil society is defined as a specific social space and a set of specific social organizations. The most important factors shaping the character of this renewed civil society are the patterns of its institutionalization after 1989, the predominance of organizations inherited from the old regime, and the marginality of anti-systemic groups. The institutional patterns are shaped by the sectoral composition of the new civil society, the relationships among its various organizations, and by these organizations' links to such collective actors/institutions as political parties and state agencies. These patterns influence the quality of political participation and democratic performance.
  • Topic: Democratization, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Jonathan Kirshner
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Cornell University Peace Studies Program
  • Abstract: In contemporary International Relations theory, there exists a sharp distinction between international political economy and security studies. This is largely a false distinction, however, a product of peculiar circumstances associated with the cold war, and one which is becoming increasingly anachronistic in the post-cold war era. In order to understand international relations in this era, a re-integration of the discipline is necessary.
  • Topic: Security, Cold War, Globalization, Political Economy
  • Author: Norrin Ripsman
  • Publication Date: 07-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics, University of Pennsylvania
  • Abstract: Unlike the comparative political economy literature, the literature on foreign security policy treats democracies as a coherent category of states, focusing on their commonalities rather than their differences. Both classical and contemporary theorists of foreign security policy have emphasized that all democratic states--states that are characterized by popular sovereignty, where the ultimate source of authority resides within the people as a whole -- share certain constitutional, procedural and normative features which affect the nature and content of their foreign security policies in similar ways. Using this logic, traditional Realists have argued that public involvement in the policy process makes democracies slow to react to international threats, reluctant to spend on defense, incapable of secrecy and war-averse; consequently, they conclude that democracies are at a disadvantage in international politics, where balance-of-power policies are necessary. Liberals, on the other hand, argue that democracies enjoy certain advantages at international bargaining, devote more aggregate resources to implementing their foreign and security policies, and are less likely than non-democratic states to have their policies subverted to serve the particular interests of their leaders, private interest groups or foreign countries. Moreover, as democratic peace theorists have recently argued, shared political norms and common political procedures prevent democracies from waging war against other democracies.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom, Europe, France
  • Author: Clark Winton Reynolds
  • Publication Date: 08-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The process of regional integration is part of the reshaping of the international economic order at the end of the 20th century. Much if it is impelled by raw market forces, or what one may term 'silent integration.' In this process the increasingly liberalized movement of goods and services, factors of production (capital, technology, and labor through migration and as embodied in trade in goods and services), and tastes offers new prospects and challenges. There are opportunities for major increases in income and wealth for the most intrepid, skilled, mobile, and aggressive participants in the process. There are threats of lost income, power, prestige, values, and institutions for those left behind. There is a need to go behind the impulse of market forces, taking advantage of their dynamic but finding ways to manage interdependence so as to best reconcile differences among social groups, institutions, and values to ensure that the process of liberalized exchange produces gains that are equitable, stable, and sustainable.
  • Topic: Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Israel, East Asia, South America, Latin America
  • Author: Erika Maza Valenzuela
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper analyzes women's organizations in the anticlerical-and middle- to upper-class-segment of Chilean society from the late nineteenth century to 1930. It focuses on their leaders' positions regarding women's rights, especially the suffrage. The feminist organizations within the anticlerical segment developed later than the Catholic ones and they had less contact with women in the popular sectors. These organizations had varying degrees of anticlericalism. Some of their members were free thinkers, a few were Protestant, and many of them were Catholics who were critical of the clergy's influence in society and politics. This paper shows that, during the period studied here, the anticlerical leaders, both men and women, were opposed to granting women full suffrage rights. They argued that, before voting, women should be given their civil rights and access to secular education under state auspices. However, even after the Civil Code had been partially modified and the number of women with secular secondary education had become roughly equal to that of men in the mid 1920s, anticlerical leaders still only supported the vote for women in municipal elections. By enfranchising women only for local elections, anticlerical leaders-Liberals and Radicals-sought to 'educate' women politically while preventing them from tipping the balance of forces benefiting the Conservative Party in legislative and presidential elections. Catholic-Conservatives had been more inclusive of women in education, social life, and politics since the mid-nineteenth century, and for this reason they had a greater capacity to appeal for women's votes.
  • Topic: Gender Issues, Government
  • Political Geography: Latin America
  • Author: Brian L. Job, Frank Langdon
  • Publication Date: 10-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper deals with the history, formation, and objectives of APEC. It describes the tensions between the Anglo-Saxon and the East Asian APEC members and the clashes of interests between the large and small and developed and less developed nations, which show how precarious the formation of APEC was. Within the short term APEC does not seem destined to become an overarching regional, political, security, and economic institution. Indeed, certain forces within the region, such as increased arms acquisitions in some states, friction arising over trade disputes, protectionism, and investment flows, and tension between China and Taiwan, could hinder the objectives of the organization. It remains possible that the very process of finding common ground through APEC may contribute more to fostering community and to ensuring security in the region than the proposals actually agreed upon by all member nations.
  • Topic: Economics, International Organization
  • Political Geography: China, Europe
  • Author: Yoji Akashi
  • Publication Date: 08-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper presents the history of APEC in terms of the different goals and fears of the participants and their perceptions of each others' agendas. The author contrasts the Western approach, as exemplified by the US push to institutionalize APEC and introduce binding, formal agreements, with the 'Asian way,' which emphasizes consensus, consultation, and flexibility. By reaching a better understanding of why various key players acted as they did in the past, the author seeks to provide a guide to what should and should not be expected regarding the breadth, specificity, and enforcement mechanisms of future regionwide trade agreements in the Pacific Rim. Ministers of trade and foreign affairs from twelve nations of the Pacific Rim gathered in Canberra in November 1989 to discuss trade liberalization and closer regional cooperation in such specific areas as investment, technology transfer, and manpower training and to plan a new organization that they hoped would shape the future of the world's most dynamic economic region, embracing 1.9 billion people whose combined economies accounted for 24% of world output.
  • Topic: Security, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: East Asia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Nile Gardiner
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Studies at Yale University
  • Abstract: This paper examines recent debates in Britain surrounding the memory of the Second World War. Part one is an examination of the controversy sparked by the publication in 1993 of John Charmley's Churchill: The End of Glory, and Alan Clark's article in The Times, “A Reputation Ripe for Revision?”
  • Topic: Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: Britain, United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Martin Gargiulo, Mario Benassi
  • Publication Date: 09-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
  • Abstract: Research on social capital has stressed the advantages that networks can bring to managers and other economic actors. The enthusiasm with this "bright side" of social capital, however, neglects the fact that social bonds may at times have detrimental effects for a manager. This paper tries to correct the optimistic bias by looking at the "dark side" of social capital. Continuing benefits from social capital require that managers can adapt the composition of this social capital to the shifting demands of their task environment. This often implies the ability to create new ties while lessening the salience of some of the old bonds--if not severing them altogether. Available evidence, however, suggests that this ability may be encumbered by the same relationships purportedly responsible for the prior success of the manager. When and how this may happen is the central question we address in this paper. We argue that strong ties to cohesive contacts limit the manager's ability keep control on the composition of his network and jeopardize his adaptability to changing task environments. We test our ideas with data on managers operating in a special unit of a European high-technology firm.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Joshua Lederberg, Margaret Hamburg, Stephen Morse, Philip R. Reilly, Timothy Wirth
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: New York Academy of Sciences
  • Abstract: A crisis usually eliminates the time required to focus on the long-term: The urgent tends to drive out the important. Over the past several years, public policy perspectives on health care have often suffered from such myopia. In the United States, and in many other countries around the world, spiraling costs and shrinking budgets have focused health policy attention on perceived near-term crises over the allocation of (often public) resources. Because public resource allocation involves tax dollars, and because voters feel personally affected by changes in health services, the controversy enters the political arena. Moreover, politics itself is a very near-term business, with the ballot box and polling data providing its primary compass. In turn, this has added to the tendency to think of health care challenges in terms of immediate needs and to focus on the moment rather than on the consequences of today's changes in tomorrow's complex patterns.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Sidney Weintraub
  • Publication Date: 07-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: On December 20, 1994, Mexican financial and monetary authorities raised the band within which the peso was permitted to fluctuate by 15 percent. They expected a short-lived shock, some economic adjustment, and then back to business as usual with a modestly devalued peso. Mexico, after all, had a history of currency devaluations, particularly during the transitions from one administration to another. Beyond that, Mexico was not a world monetary powerhouse and what it did would not normally attract great or sustained international attention.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Latin America, Mexico
  • Author: Anthony T. Bryan
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: The challenges confronting the Caribbean with respect to trade with Europe and the Americas are essentially similar: the future of existing regimes of significant preferences, the need to plan for the long term without such preferences, and the development of a strategy to meet the transition. Unfortunately, the dialogue on these matters often has been characterized as a protocol for the Caribbean to “choose between friends.” Growth in the economies of the Caribbean will depend to a large extent on participation in or access to global trade arrangements. Ideally, a Caribbean strategy for participation should involve simultaneous access to as many pacts as possible. This paper is an overview of the legacy and the future of trade relations between the Caribbean and Europe, and between the Caribbean and the Americas, as these relationships constitute the Caribbean's most urgent global agenda.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Europe, Caribbean
  • Author: Gerardo Gonzalez
  • Publication Date: 05-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: This paper analyzes how Cuban entrepreneurs perceive the importance of their role in Cuba's reintegration into the Caribbean. In the context of recent Cuban-Caribbean economic relations, Caribbean entrepreneurs have taken the lead, and Cuban entrepreneurs are trying to conduct business under changing and challenging conditions. As the Cuban economy gradually adapts to new national and international realities, an increasing number of Cuban firms are beginning to participate directly and actively in Cuba's external economic relations.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Cuba, Caribbean
  • Author: Glenn W. Harrison, Thomas F. Rutherfod
  • Publication Date: 05-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: This paper examines the net economic benefits and government revenue implications for Chile of forming a free trade area with MERCOSUR as an associate member, forming a free trade area with NAFTA, and reducing its external tariff multilaterally and unilaterally. The research shows that NAFTA would benefit Chile, but Chile must obtain improved access in non-grain crops, one of its key export sectors, or NAFTA will result in losses for Chile. Chile will lose from the MERCOSUR agreement as presently constituted but can gain from participation in MERCOSUR by reducing its external tariff to between 6 percent and 8 percent. Such a lowering of the external tariff would lead to a reduction of costly, trade-diverting imports (on which Chile does not collect tariffs) from high-priced partner country suppliers. The paper indicates that Chile should continue to push for NAFTA membership, while moving toward broader multilateral trade liberalization. Additionally, collecting the value added tax at more uniform rates in Chile would reduce domestic distortions and enhance the effectiveness of trade policy reforms.
  • Topic: Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Luigi Manzetti
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: Some economists have argued that before governments privatize state-owned monopolies in public utilities, they should first try to promote competition. If this is not done, privatization does not produce gains in economic efficiency; instead, it fosters rent-seeking behavior by the new private ownership. Few empirical analyses of rent-seeking behavior for Latin America in post-privatization environments have been done — those that exist concentrate on economic issues and neglect important political motivations. The purpose of this paper is to fill that gap and address key issues of public policy by examining the cases of Chile and Argentina and providing a political explanation for why the Chilean and Argentine governments allowed rent-seeking behavior in important public utility markets. Based upon an analysis of these experiences, the paper then discusses the types of institutions most likely to avoid such negative consequences.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Political Economy
  • Author: Carter Garber
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: In this paper, economist and development finance consultant Carter Garber examines the process of complementing donations and commercial bank credit with private investments as a source of capital for international microenterprise finance. First, he describes the large expectations for private capital in the rapid growth of microenterprise finance. Second, Garber discusses the varied sources of private capital, especially those involving socially responsible investment. The third and central section is an examination of eight “socially responsible investment” mechanisms that currently channel $27 million of U.S. private credit to microfinance lending institutions. Garber demonstrates the variety of available mechanisms and examines their track record to date. The final section identifies policy changes that will be necessary for these types of private investment in microenterprise to grow fast enough to meet the expected demand during the coming decade.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Publication Date: 12-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: In fall 1996, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held a series of conferences at National Defense University to identify key global trends and their impact on major regions and countries of the globe. The exercise was designed to help describe and assess major features of the political world as they will appear in the year 2010.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, South America
  • Author: Robert Chamberlain, Alexandra Cousteau, Nathan Ruff
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: With the end of the Cold War, the United States military and intelligence communities have been searching for new enemies and new roles. The demise of the Soviet Union presented an opportunity to revisit traditional conceptions of security and consider new missions such as heightened counter-terrorist activities and protection of US firms against economic espionage. In this project, special attention has been given to the importance of environmental change. The exploration of linkages between environmental change and security has developed into a complex debate focused on two fundamental and interrelated questions: Is environmental change a "traditional" security threat? In any case, what role is best played by the military and intelligence communities?
  • Topic: Security, Environment
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Richard N. Cooper
  • Publication Date: 12-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: International treaties in pursuit of common endeavors can be classified into two categories: those that set mutually agreed national objectives and leave each signatory to pursue them in their own way; and those that define mutually agreed actions. The proposed treaty on global climate change falls into the first category with respect to greenhouse gas emissions by the rich countries. Stabilization of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases requires eventual engagement of developing countries. The proposed treaty, based on historical emission levels, does not provide a foundation acceptable to them. Indeed, there is unlikely to be any generally acceptable principle for allocating emission rights, potentially worth trillions of dollars, among rich and poor countries. This probable impossibility suggests a successful attack on greenhouse gas emissions, necessarily international in scope, must be through mutually agreed actions, such as a nationally-collected emissions tax, rather than through national emission targets.
  • Topic: Environment, International Cooperation
  • Author: Richard. Tucker, Nathaniel. Beck
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Scholars in international relations (IR) are increasingly using time-series cross-section data to analyze models with a binary dependent variable (BTSCS models). IR scholars generally employ a simple logit/probit to analyze such data. This procedure is inappropriate if the data exhibit temporal or spatial dependence. First, we discuss two estimation methods for modelling temporal dependence in BTSCS data: one promising based on exact modelling of the underlying temporal process which determines the latent, continuous, dependent variable; The second, and easier to implement, depends on the formal equivalence of BTSCS and discrete duration data. Because the logit estimates a discrete hazard in a duration context, this method adds a smoothed time term to the logit estimation. Second, we discuss spatial or cross-sectional issues, including robust standard errors and the modelling of effects. While it is not possible to use fixed effects in binary dependent variable panel models, such a strategy is feasible for IR BTSCS models. While not providing a model of spatial dependence, Huber's robust standard errors may well provide more accurate indications of parameter variability if the unit observations are intra-related. We apply these recommended techniques to reanalyses of the relationship between (1) democracy, interdependence and peace (Oneal, Oneal, Maoz and Russett); and (2) security and the termination of interstate rivalry (Bennett). The techniques appear to perform well statistically. Substantively, while democratic dyads do appear to be more peaceful, trade relations, as measured by Oneal, et al., do not decrease the likelihood of particpation in militarized disputes, Bennett's principal finding regarding security and rivalry termination is confirmed; his finding on common external threats, however, is not; his results on the influence of issue salience are even more robust.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations
  • Author: John W. Schiemann, Kenneth Benoit
  • Publication Date: 05-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Theories which explain the origins of institutions as the product of struggles for distributive advantage provide only a general framework with no conceptualization of the bargaining process and few applications to empirical cases. We address both problems and extend the distributive theory of institutional origins by drawing on a unique set of data to examine the creation of the Hungarian electoral law of 1989. Arguing that outcomes are shaped by four mechanisms arising from bargaining - time preferences, the credibility of threats and promises, mimicked fairness, and symmetrical division - we develop observable implications of these mechanisms and test them empirically by analyzing the bargaining which produced the multiple rules of Hungary's complex electoral system. Not only does the Hungarian case confirm the bargaining mechanism theory of institutional origins, but the theory also explains many curious features of the Hungarian electoral institutions, including its surprising combination of extraordinary complexity and unusual stability.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe
  • Author: David E. Johnson
  • Publication Date: 07-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: On November 30, 1995, Secretary of Defense William J. Perry testified before the House International Relations and National Security committees on the commitment of U.S. ground forces to the Former Yugoslavia. The commitment, crafted in Dayton, Ohio, had been avoided for some 4 years. Perry carefully discussed the mission, rules of engagement, and exit strategy for U.S. forces.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Yugoslavia
  • Author: Simon V. Mayall
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: At the end of the Cold War every country was forced to reexamine the fundamental assumptions that had formed their security policies for the last 45 years. Among the "victors" of the Cold War, few countries were faced with a more disparate set of new circumstances than Turkey. Unlike the United States and Western Europe, "victory" for Turkey had a very ambivalent quality. Almost overnight Turkey moved from being the buttressing flank of one strategic region, to the epicenter of a new one.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Religion
  • Political Geography: United States, Turkey
  • Author: Marc Sommers, Larry Minear, Ted van Baarda
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: The world's response to the Kosovo crisis dramatizes the increased role of international military forces in humanitarian action. Some people view this development positively as the harnessing of the military for humanitarian tasks; others are alarmed at the perceived militarization of humanitarian action. A workshop convened by the Netherlands Foreign Ministry in The Hague on November 15-16, 1999, assessed these different perspectives on the Kosovo experience in the light of research it had commissioned.
  • Topic: War
  • Political Geography: Kosovo, Netherlands
  • Author: Richard Jolly
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: John W. Holmes' talk for the first annual meeting of the Academic Council on the United Nations System ( ACUNS ) in 1988 was titled Looking Backwards and Forwards. I would like to put the emphasis in this article on looking forwards—from Copenhagen plus one to the year 2000, 2015, or even 2030. In short, I would like to direct attention to the world that the United Nations will need to face in the years ahead, and explore how human advance can be carried forward over that period, rather than dwell on the predicaments in which the world is at present caught up or through which the UN has struggled over the fifty years of its existence.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United Nations
  • Author: S. Neil MacFarlane, Larry Minear
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: This study reviews the intersection between politics and humanitarian action in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Approaching humanitarian action as including both assistance and protection, as well as emergency aid and reconstruction inputs, the study analyzes the intrusion of political agendas into humanitarian responses to the conflict and assesses the damages of the resulting politicization of activities.
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: No abstract is available.
  • Author: Greg Gause
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Mershon Center
  • Abstract: Steve: My impression is that your group has identified the variables that might affect the way the peace process goes. In fact, you probably have too many to factor into any one scenario. One way to proceed might be to divide the variables into First Order and Second Order variables: First Order variables would be those in which a change would have direct and immediate consequences on the peace process; Second Order would be those in which change would have an indirect and/or longer-term effect. You rightly have problematized the question of just what direction your vectors might take. This distinction would add intensity as a second element of the vector.
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: Rick Hermann
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Mershon Center
  • Abstract: My first cut at the hierarchy of driving forces ranks Israeli-Palestinian bilateral factors as the most important and regional and global factors as secondary. Competition between global powers (USA, Russia, China) is currently not intense. None of them see the bilateral Israeli-Palestinian conflict as instrumentally critical to their broader strategic competition with each other. None see their security as centrally tied to this conflict, and, consequently, while interested not even the United States will commit enough resources at this point to overturn the forces driving the bilateral bargain. Competition among regional states is substantial, but the conflicts that do not involve Israel do not involve states powerful enough to project their competition into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For example, Iranian v. Turkish, or Iranian v. Saudi Arabian, or Syrian v. Iraq, or India v. Pakistan might tangentially connect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, mostly in the realm of rhetoric and symbol manipulation. None of these states, however, are strong enough to see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as an instrumental regional manifestation of their broader strategic conflict. The primary determinants of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiation process in the short-term are the conflicting ambitions and calculations made by Israelis and Palestinians. Forces at the global and regional level will affect these bargaining calculations, (affecting both relative coercive leverage and positive reassurance) but they will not impose additional sources of conflict. My examination of global and regional forces, will follow my construction of the primary bilateral dynamic. I do not think global and regional factors will upset the short-term prediction I will make for the bilateral Palestinian-Israeli relationship. They may play a big role in shaping longer-term predictions.
  • Political Geography: Russia, China, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Syria
  • Author: Bruce Jentleson
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Mershon Center
  • Abstract: There are two issues I want to raise regarding our basic approach of focusing on driving forces to trace scenarios and predict outcomes. First is the question of the time frame of the outcomes to which we are driving. I ask this with particular reference to the "violent collapse" outcome. There are numerous permutations here that we need to differentiate. I'm not adept enough to graph it on the computer, but here are the permutations: Two versions of violent collapse: violent collapse as some sort of end state for whatever our timeframe is, or violent collapse as an intermediate outcome which then comes back together and leads to "two state" or "autonomy"; If violent collapse as an intermediate stage, then what conditions make an ensuing path to Palestinian state more likely, and what conditions for autonomy? Or what 's the story line for getting to either of these without going through violent collapse? And what are the parameters and criteria for what we mean by "violent" (Singer and Small had their figures for how many deaths equal a war; how many equal "violent") and by "collapse", as distinct from pause or suspension of talks?
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: David E. Spiro
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Mershon Center
  • Abstract: Several interesting observations came out of our first conference. We realized that the mainstream academic view on the Middle East peace process has changed dramatically—from a belief that there would never be a peace to confidence that the peace process would not be derailed. In trying to make predictions that are not driven by newspaper headlines, we used a fairly uncontroversial laundry list of systemic variables, but we could not agree on which way they would effect the outcome. My aim in this memorandum is to review my past views on the Middle East peace process as an exercise in exploring what changed—both in the Middle East, and in my own implicit assumptions. I will amend my conclusions about the past by examining what has happened since the Oslo Accords. Finally, I will suggest, by way of conclusion, what driving forces will affect the future.
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: Janice Stein
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Mershon Center
  • Abstract: The two-state solution includes continuing but declining violence over time against Israeli and Palestinian civilians as the Palestinian state becomes entrenched and its legitimacy and authority grows, Palestinian leaders develop a commitment to the status quo, and the opposition in Israel reluctantly accepts the permanence of a Palestinian state. If the Palestinian state is poorly institutionalized, violence against Palestinian and Israeli citizens may well increase over time.
  • Topic: Development, Government
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Palestine
  • Author: Don Sylvan
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Mershon Center
  • Abstract: Steve asked each of us to do the following: "Each participant will return to the next meeting with arguments on these seven driving forces. These arguments will include: Logic: what is the causal logic by which the driving force impacts on the intervening and dependent variables. Probability: what is the probability estimate of the effect. Hierarchy: is there an identifiable hierarchy among these driving forces.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: Steven Weber
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Mershon Center
  • Abstract: The election of Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel threw into flux the Middle East peace process. What in early 1996 seemed to many observers the almost inevitable "working out" of a decades-long conflict that had gradually become unsustainable on all sides, was by late 1996 seen more clearly as part of a contingent unfolding set of events which could drive the region in more than one direction, including backwards toward explicit conflict and even war. This presents unique theoretical, analytic, and policy opportunities.
  • Topic: War
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: Sheldon W. Simon
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: We may now be experiencing one of those relatively rare periods in world affairs when the structure of the international system does not dominate foreign policies. While the old cold war alliances have not completely disappeared from U.S. security policy, their ability to determine reflexively America's foreign relations on issues from Bosnia in Europe to the Spratly islands in the Pacific has greatly atrophied. For other states, too, domestic considerations and nearby regional concerns take precedence over alliances with remote great powers whose reliability is problematic in this new era. To better understand this unfamiliar international security environment, analysts should concentrate on internally generated alternative national visions of security which, in the aggregate, are creating a new, innovative structure of international politics.
  • Political Geography: America, Europe, Northeast Asia
  • Author: Edward A. Olsen
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: United States-Korea security relations are experiencing a period of dynamic change that raises serious questions about the way that the relationship will evolve during the 21st Century. A number of well-known factors have provoked this phase. The end of the U.S.-Soviet cold war, North Korea's use of its nuclear card to engage the United States in a broader dialogue, South Korea's pursuit of diverse multilateral approaches to its security to shore up the U.S.-ROK alliance, and the emergence of Chinese and Japanese assertiveness in the regional balance of power, cumulatively have altered the context in which Washington and Seoul conduct their bilateral security relations. Both allies are struggling to come to grips with these new—and sometimes troubling—circumstances.
  • Political Geography: United States, South Korea, Korea
  • Author: William J. Taylor, Jr., Abraham Kim
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: The end of the cold war resulted in a mixed bag of challenges in the Northeast Asia region. The Soviet threat is gone, but the danger of regional instability is not. Lingering conflicts, old rivalries, and security challenges pose an uncertain future for the Asia-Pacific. The U.S. military presence still remains an important stabilizer in the region. Former U.S. Secretary of Defense, William Perry stated: "It is [the U.S. military] presence that the countries of the [Asia-Pacific] region consider a critical variable in the East Asia security equation.... [and] the most important factor in guaranteeing stability and peace."
  • Topic: Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, South Korea, North Korea
  • Author: Samuel S. Kim
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: On 17 September 1991, the first day of its (46th) annual session, the United Nations General Assembly admitted the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) as the 160th and 161st member states. This historical turnabout was made possible by what had already happened in the Security Council five weeks earlier. Indeed, the 3001st meeting of the Security Council on 8 August 1991 may well be remembered as one of the remarkable events or nonevents in the annals of global high politics in the world organization. Since 1947 the Korean question, in a great variety of contentious manifestations, has proved to be one of the most intractable problems constandy intruding upon wider East-West geopolitical and ideological rivalries in and out of the world organization. Yet, on this day the Security Council devoted only five minutes—between 11:30am and 11:35am EST to be exact—to finally crossing the Rubicon on divided Korea. Without any debate, the Council unanimously adopted the report of the Committee on the Admission of New Members concerning the applications of the two Koreas for admission to membership in the United Nations.
  • Topic: United Nations
  • Political Geography: North Korea
  • Author: B.C. Koh
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: North Korea's approach to the United States is arguably one of the few success stories emanating from Pyongyang. While the story is still unfolding, what has transpired thus far has clearly benefited North Korea in both tangible and intangible ways. By contrast, North Korea's approach to Japan has produced but meager results thus far. Potentially, however, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) stands to profit immensely should its quest for diplomatic normalization with Japan bear fruit.
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, North Korea
  • Author: Hong Nack Kim
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: During the cold war era, Japan's Korea policy was geared to the preservation of the status quo on the Korean peninsula by way of supporting the Republic of Korea (ROK) both politically and economically, while refusing to recognize the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). However, Japan's foreign policy in general and its Korea policy in particular had to make some significant adjustments in the aftermath of the collapse of the Communist regimes in the Soviet Union and Eastern European nations, which ended the cold war in Europe, and a train of rapid developments on and around the Korean peninsula in the post-cold war era.
  • Political Geography: Japan, Europe, Korea
  • Author: Larry Niksch
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: The South Korean government has announced that it would affect a delay in the inauguration of construction of light-water reactors in North Korea (DPRK). Seoul acted in response to North Korea's submarine-borne infiltration of military personnel into South Korea (ROK) and what appears to be North Korea's complicity in the assassination of an ROK diplomat in Vladivostok, Russia. The delay probably will be temporary. By the spring of 1997, a formula likely will be found that will allow construction to begin; and implementation of this important part of the October 1994 U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework will proceed.
  • Political Geography: South Korea, North Korea
  • Author: Robert Sutter
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: Chinese-American Rivalry in Korea—A New "Great Game"?There has been considerable discussion in Washington, Beijing and Seoul in recent years about an emerging competition between the United States and China for influence in the Korean peninsula in general and in South Korea in particular. Some in China have voiced concern over alleged U.S. efforts to hold back and "contain" China's rising power and influence in East Asia. They have been impressed by the recent "gains" in U.S. influence with North Korea. Indeed, from their perspectives, the North Koreans have moved away from their traditionally antagonistic stance toward the United States to a foreign policy approach that appears to give top priority to reaching an arrangement with Washington that would allow for the continued survival of the North Korean regime, or at least a so-called "soft landing" for the increasingly troubled government. A possible scenario contrary to these Chinese analysts interests would see the end of the North Korean regime and the reunification of the peninsula by South Korea under arrangements carried out under the guidance and overall influence of the United States, with the support of Japan. In the view of such Chinese officials, such an arrangement would confront China with a major security problem in a crucial area of Chinese concern for the foreseeable future, gready weakening China's ability to exert power and influence in Asian and world affairs. It would give Americans interested in "containing" China a much more advantageous strategic position in East Asia than they now possess.
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, America, East Asia, South Korea, North Korea
  • Author: Thomas W. Robinson
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: Domestic and International Determinants of Chinese Foreign Policy The period beginning with the Tiananmen Incident of June 1989 initiated the third period of Chinese foreign policy. The first coincided with the rule of Mao Zedong, 1949-1976, and the second extended, after a brief interregnum, from Deng Xiaoping's return to power in 1978 to the Beijing disturbances on 1989. While each period naturally exhibited its own special characteristics, all shared a set of three domestic and three international categories of determinants. To understand those of the post-Tiananmen period, one must inspect, for comparative purposes, those of the first two eras as well. In each era, it is clear that domestic determinants predominated, configuring not only the general direction of foreign policy but much of the specific content. The six determinants influenced Chinese policy toward the Korean peninsula as well, and it is therefore useful to provide a brief sketch in each instance.
  • Political Geography: Korea
  • Author: Jane Shapiro Zacek
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: This essay considers Soviet and then Russian relations with North and South Korea since 1988, which was a watershed year for Soviet policy toward northeast Asia. By that time, the Soviet leadership had reassessed basic ideological and security interests as well as the country's growing domestic economic needs. While the Communist Party was still in power and Mikhail Gorbachev was still General Secretary of the Central Committee (a position he had assumed upon the death of Konstantin Chernenko in March 1985), Marxist-Leninist ideology was playing an everdecreasing role in Party politics and policymaking. By 1987, Gorbachev began to stress the critical need to shift primary political power and the policymaking process from the Party to state institutions. He also emphasized the necessity of revamping the Soviet economy, which would be costly and would need foreign assistance. By 1988, the international communist movement, with the Soviet Union at its head, no longer was of interest to the Soviet leader. Rather, he was looking to reconfirm his country's role as a great power in the international arena, a power that could not be ignored in any regional political turmoil and subsequent settlement, whether in Africa, the Middle East, or Northeast Asia.
  • Political Geography: Russia, Middle East, South Korea, Korea, Northeast Asia
  • Author: Young Whan Kihl
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: The unification policies of North and South Korea have changed little from the days of the cold war era in both official lines and basic premise. The "new detente" between the two Koreas, which was to follow from the planned summitry between South Korean President Kim Young Sam and North Korean President Kim II Sung, was the casualty of the latter's sudden death in July 1994. Since then, instead of working toward peace, the frigid cold war atmosphere has returned to the Korean peninsula. Implementation of the historic Agreement on Reconciliation, Nonaggression, and Exchanges and Cooperation between the South and the North, signed 13 December 1991 and promulgated on 19 February 1992, has also proven to be more difficult than anticipated. Not surprisingly, the strategic goals of Seoul and Pyongyang remain far apart and irreconcilable despite official posturing and rhetoric.
  • Political Geography: South Korea, North Korea
  • Author: David Cortright
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: A recent Fourth Freedom Forum study, produced in cooperation with the Kroc Institute at the University of Notre Dame, finds that a settlement of the dispute in Kashmir and a verifiable renunciation of India's nuclear program could convince Pakistani elites to forego the nuclear option.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Middle East, India
  • Author: David Cortright, Amitabh Mattoo
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The Survey. An opinion survey of elite opinion on India's nuclear policy was conducted between late September and early November 1994. The survey consisted of face to face interviews with educated elites in seven Indian cities. Respondents were government civil servants, academicians, scientists, journalists, lawyers, politicians, doctors, public and private sector executives, members of the police and armed forces, and sports figures. Interviews were conducted by MARG, Marketing and Research Group Pvt. Ltd. (New Delhi), for the Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, and the Fourth Freedom Forum, Goshen, Indiana. The target sample size was 1000, with 992 responses. Respondents were interviewed in Delhi, Bombay, Calcutta, Madras, Banglore, Lucknow, and Hyderabad. Views on India's Nuclear Policy. Respondents were divided into three groups. The first and largest group (57 percent, N=563) consists of those supporting India's current policy of keeping the nuclear option open: neither renouncing nuclear weapons nor acquiring them. The second group (33 percent) supports India's acquisition of nuclear weapons (N=326). The third group (8 percent, N=83) favors renunciation of nuclear weapons. The survey probed the factors that might convince respondents to alter their views on nuclear weapons policy. For those supporting government policy or favoring weaponization, i.e., the vast majority of respondents, the most important considerations that would permit India to renounce the nuclear option are "a time-bound plan for global nuclear disarmament" and "a verifiable renunciation of Pakistan's nuclear option." Looking at the reverse question, what would justify India's development of nuclear weapons, nearly half of those supporting the government's position believe that India should proceed with weaponization if Pakistan tests a nuclear device. Threats from a nuclear Pakistan are also the primary consideration for those favoring weaponization. By contrast, the prospect of a border settlement with China and removal of Chinese nuclear weapons from Tibet appears to have little influence on opinion. Nor is there strong belief that a serious deterioration of relations with China could justify the development of nuclear weapons. These findings suggest that the primary motivation for the nuclear option in India is not the perceived threat from China but concern about the Pakistani nuclear program. An intensive effort to negotiate a verifiable test ban and nuclear inspection agreement with Pakistan could significantly enhance prospects for denuclearization. The strong consideration given to global disarmament also suggests that the most important step the United States and other nuclear powers could take to defuse nuclear tensions in South Asia would be to support negotiations for comprehensive nuclear disarmament, as called for in Article VI of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Support for Multilateral Arms Control. Thirty-nine percent of all respondents support the idea of India signing the NPT with or without the condition that Pakistan also sign the treaty. Forty-two percent of those who support the government's nuclear policy favor India signing the NPT either unilaterally or bilaterally with Pakistan. Even 32 percent of those who favor the development of nuclear weapons support India's signing of the NPT. More than 90 percent of all respondents express support for an international agreement for the elimination of all nuclear weapons. Only 2 percent oppose the idea. Use of Nuclear Weapons. Forty-four percent of all respondents feel that nuclear weapons could never be used. Thirty-three percent of respondents feel the use of nuclear weapons would be justified if Pakistan were about to take over Kashmir. Only 23 percent believe that a nuclear response would be appropriate if China were about to overwhelm India militarily. Factors Shaping Views Respondents were asked what would motivate them. to advocate India's acquiring of nuclear weapons as well as what might lead them. to support India's renouncing them. When those supporting India's current policy were asked what circumstances might lead them. to renounce nuclear weapons use, 58 percent cited a time-bound plan for global nuclear disarmament. The survey analysis found a significant correlation (r=.218, significant at .01 level) between the belief that threats from other nuclear powers justify India's development of nuclear weapons and the view that India could renounce nuclear weapons if a time-bound plan for global disarmament were in place. This buttresses the argument that greater international cooperation on disarmament might reduce the tendency of elites to accept nuclear weapons development as a policy option. The next largest proportion of respondents favoring government policy (26 percent) cited a verifiable ban on Pakistan's nuclear weapons development. Fifteen percent saw a boundary settlement with China and the removal of nuclear weapons from Tibet as a prerequisite for India's renunciation of nuclear weapons. This pattern of responses suggests that, while regional security issues are important for reducing the attractiveness of India's nuclear option, a far more important factor in reducing the inclination of elites to support the acquisition of nuclear weapons is a comprehensive treaty leading toward the global elimination of nuclear threats. Respondents who indicated that India should develop nuclear weapons most frequently cited threats from a nuclear Pakistan (57 percent) and an interest in advancing India's international bargaining power (49 percent) as their reasons for taking such a position. Twenty-seven percent of this group saw threats from other nuclear powers as motivating their interest in seeing India go nuclear. While a third of this group saw no circumstance which would lead them. to change their position on nuclear weapons, 42 percent saw a global agreement to eliminate nuclear testing and development as a situation under which India could renounce nuclear weapons. It appears that an international treaty would do two things that would address the primary concerns indicated by these respondents. First it would reduce the regional threat caused by the possibility of Pakistan acquiring a nuclear weapon. Second it would reduce the political leverage which nuclear weapons states have over nonnuclear states, thus reducing the attraction of nuclear weapons development as a political strategy. The group opposed to India's acquiring of nuclear weapons remained firmly opposed to their use, with 60 percent indicating that no circumstance would make them. consider that India should adopt such weapons. Of those who viewed some situations as calling for a nuclear response, the largest proportion viewed threats from other nuclear powers-as opposed to regionalized threats or other international pressures--as a situation which would lead them. to consider changing their views. This would suggest that the absence of international controls on nuclear weapons states creates insecurities which might prevent opponents of nuclear weapons from eschewing their use in international politics. Larger Study. This study is part of a larger study on India's nuclear choices, David Cortright (President, Fourth Freedom Forum, Goshen, Indiana) and Amitabh Mattoo (Associate Professor in International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India). The study is the result of a collaboration between Indian and American scholars, including Dr. Sumit Ganguly (Associate Professor, Hunter College, City University of New York), Dr. Kanti Bajpai (Associate Professor in International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi), Dr. Aabha Dixit (Research Officer, Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, New Delhi) and Dr. Varun Sahni (Reader in Politics, University of Goa). For more information about the survey and the larger study, contact David Cortright at 1-800-233-6786, or fax (1-219-534-4937) or mailto:fff@tln.net (outside the U.S., call 1-219-534-3402). Amitabh Mattoo can be reached in India by mailto:Mattoo@jnuniv.ernet.in or faxing 011-91-11-689-6454.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: India, Asia, New Delhi
  • Author: Zalman Shoval
  • Publication Date: 03-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: The Hebron agreement is now finally in place. During the months that it took to reach that point, some must have been reminded of what the nineteenth century British Prime Minister Lord Palmerstone once said about the Schleswig-Holstein question: there were only three people who understood it - one of whom was dead, one was in an asylum, and he himself had forgotten it.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: Mordechai Abir
  • Publication Date: 09-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: The stability of Saudi Arabia (and the Persian Gulf as a whole) is crucially important to the world's industrial countries. According to the Gulf Center of Strategic Studies, "oil is expected to account for 38 percent of all the world consumption of energy until 2015, compared to 39 percent in 1993. Increasing world-wide demand for oil, now about 74 million barrels per day, is projected to rise by 2015 to about 110 million" (Gulf Report, London, July 1997). Over 60 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are located in the Persian Gulf, and Saudi Arabia alone controls 25 percent of the total.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, Politics, Religion
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Saudi Arabia
  • Author: David Newman
  • Publication Date: 07-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: Maps are a very important part of the political process of conflict resolution known as the peace process. Maps are important parts of all territorial conflicts. We often walk around with the idea of a map in our head and think we know what we are talking about, but often we do not.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Peace Studies, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Palestine
  • Author: Jacob M. Landau
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: When Mustafa Kamal (Ataturk) founded the Republic of Turkey in 1923 (he was its president until his death fifteen years later), he set as his main objective the modernization of the new republic. His preferred means was speedy, intensive secularization and, indeed, every one of his reforms was tied up with disestablishing other Islamic institutions from their hold on Turkey's politics, economics, society, and cultural life.
  • Topic: Government, Islam, Politics, Religion
  • Political Geography: Turkey, Middle East
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: This report presents summary data on the 100 companies, and their subsidiaries, receiving the largest dollar volume of Department of Defense (DoD) prime contract awards during fiscal year (FY) 1996. Table 1 lists the 100 companies in alphabetical order and gives their associated rank. Table 2, identifies the parent companies in rank order, with their subsidiaries, and gives the total net value of awards for both the parent company and its subsidiaries. In many cases, the parent company receives no awards itself, but appears on the list because of its subsidiaries. Table 2 also shows what percentage of the total awards each company's awards represent, as well as the cumulative percentage represented by all companies. Table 3, lists the top 100 companies DoD-wide in rank order and breaks the totals into three categories of procurement: Research, Development, Test and Evaluation (RDT); Other Services and Construction; and Supplies and Equipment. Table 4, lists the top 50 companies for each of the Reporting Components in rank order, and by category of procurement.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 12-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: No abstract is available.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 09-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: No abstract is available.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 05-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: The data in this volume cover the operations of establishments of U.S. affiliates of foreign companies in 1992. A U.S. affiliate is a U.S. business enterprise that is owned 10 percent or more, directly or indirectly, by a foreign person. The volume is divided into two parts. The first covers all industries and presents data on the number, employment, payroll, and shipments or sales of the establishments of U.S. affiliates (hereinafter referred to as “foreign-owned establishments”); it includes data by detailed industry for nonmanufacturing and totals for manufacturing as a whole. The second part presents these data items by detailed industry within manufacturing as well as additional items for manufacturing establishments, including value added, total compensation of employees, employee benefits, hourly wage rates of production workers, and expenditures for new plant and equipment. In addition to data by industry, both parts present data by State and by country of owner. 2 The data for this volume were obtained from the Census Bureau's 1992 Economic Censuses and Standard Statistical Establishment List (SSEL). 3 They are the result of a project that links Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) enterprise, or company, data on foreign direct investment in the United States with Bureau of the Census establishment data for all U.S. businesses. 4 The project was authorized by the Foreign Direct Investment and International Financial Data Improvements Act of 1990. This volume updates data for foreign-owned manufacturing and nonmanufacturing establishments published in Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for 1987 and data for foreign-owned manufacturing establishments for 1988–91 published in Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for Manufacturing, in separate volumes for each year (see “Data Availability”). To aid comparisons of the data in this publication with those in the publications for earlier years, tables A and B provide cross-references between the table numbers used in this publication and those used in the publications for 1987–91. Analyses of the data from the link are available in three SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS articles: “Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for 1987,” in the October 1992 issue of the SURVEY, gives an overview of the 1987 data and an analysis of the attributes of industries with substantial foreign direct investment activity; “Characteristics of Foreign-Owned U.S. Manufacturing Establishments,” (http://raven/ARTICLES/INTERNAT/FDINVEST/1994/0194iid.pdf) in the January 1994 SURVEY, presents a profile of foreign-owned manufacturing establishments using the 1990 data; and “Differences in Foreign-Owned U.S. Manufacturing Establishments by Country of Owner,” (http://raven/ARTICLES/INTERNAT/FDINVEST/1996/0396iid.pdf) in the March 1996 SURVEY, uses the 1991 data to examine whether industry-mix and operating characteristics of foreign-owned U.S. manufacturing establishments vary by country of owner. In addition, an article that will analyze the 1992 data from a regional perspective is planned. The establishment data from the link project complement BEA's enterprise data for U.S. affiliates. BEA's enterprise data are needed for analyzing the overall significance of, and trends in, direct investment and for compiling the U.S. international transactions accounts, the international investment position of the United States, and the U.S. national income and product accounts. The data on positions and transactions between U.S. affiliates and their foreign parents used in compiling the national and international accounts exist only at the enterprise level. Analyses of some topics, such as profits and taxes, are meaningful only at that level. Furthermore, balance sheets and income statements containing the critical, nonduplicative financial and operating data needed for examining these topics exist only at the enterprise level. The establishment data facilitate analyses of the activities and importance of foreign-owned U.S. companies in specific, detailed industries. Each establishment of an enterprise can be classified separately in the establishment data, while BEA's enterprise data classify the entire enterprise, however diversified, in one industry. Furthermore, the level of industry classification can be much more detailed for individual establishments than is appropriate for consolidated enterprises, whose operations may span many narrowly defined industries. As a result, foreign-owned establishments can be classified into over 800 industries, while BEA's foreign-owned enterprises can be classified into only 135 industries. The tables in each part of this volume are organized into three groups. The first group gives an overview of the data by industry, country, and State. The second group presents detailed industry tables for individual States. The third group presents detailed industry tables for selected major investor countries. Some of the tables in each part show totals for key items of all U.S. establishments and the share of the all-U.S. totals accounted for by foreign-owned establishments.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Raymond J. Jr. Mataloni
  • Publication Date: 10-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: The operations of nonbank U.S. multinational companies (MNC's)grew more rapidly in 1995 than they had grown, on average, since 1982—the year in which this annual series began. According to preliminary estimates from BEA's annual survey of U.S. direct investment abroad for 1995, worldwide gross product of U.S. MNC's (U.S. parents and majority-owned foreign affiliates combined) grew 6 percent, compared with an average annual increase of 4 percent in 1982–94; employment increased 1 percent, compared with negligible growth; and capital expenditures increased 8 percent, compared with a 2-percent increase (table 1).
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Russel B. Scholl
  • Publication Date: 07-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: The net international investment position of the United States at yearend 1996 was -$870.5 billion with direct investment valued at the current cost of tangible assets, and it was -$831.3 billion with direct investment valued at the current stock-market value of owners' equity (table A, chart 1). For both measures, the value of foreign assets in the United States continued to exceed the value of U.S. assets abroad. However, for the direct investment component of the position valued on either basis, U.S. assets abroad continue to exceed foreign assets in the United States.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Policy Information Center
  • Abstract: Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, was a pioneer in the movement for African independence. In past centuries, its territory was home to a series of powerful and technically-advanced societies, renowned for their artistic, commercial, and political achievements.
  • Topic: Democratization, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Nationalism, Politics
  • Political Geography: Africa, Nigeria
  • Publication Date: 07-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Policy Information Center
  • Abstract: Electronic networks—and particularly the new tools of e-mail and the World Wide Web (see below for an overview of basic concepts and a glossary with short definitions)—have great potential for enhancing global democratic access to policy-making processes. But de facto access to effective use of these technologies is biased in all the predictable directions: by race, gender, economic status, and location. Africa, to date the least connected continent, is particularly disadvantaged. By cutting the costs of long-distance communication, however, the information revolution is also opening up new possibilities. How well Africa and Africa's friends take advantage of these opportunities will depend at least as much on our collective capacity to learn as on the material resources available to us.
  • Topic: Science and Technology, Third World
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Salih Booker
  • Publication Date: 03-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Policy Information Center
  • Abstract: Recent Congressional action to significantly cut aid to Africa is only one sign among many of a trend to reduce U.S. involvement on the continent. How much further Africa is marginalized in the U.S. will ultimately depend on the ability of Africa's multiple constituencies to reverse this trend. Nevertheless, events on the continent are likely to compel a greater commitment of resources than U.S. policymakers currently contemplate. And engagement at any level needs to be based on clear identification of U.S. interests in Africa and well-defined criteria for establishing priorities.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States
  • Author: Ronald McKinnon, Kazuko Shirono, Kenichi Ohno
  • Publication Date: 12-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: From 1971 through mid-1995, the yen continually appreciated against the U.S. dollar because the Japanese and American governments were caught in a mutual policy trap. Repeated threats of a trade war by the United States caused the yen to ratchet up in 1971-73, 1977-78, 1985-87, and 1993 to mid-1995. While temporarily ameliorating commercial tensions, these great appreciations imposed relative deflation on Japan without correcting the trade imbalance between the two countries. Although resisting sharp yen appreciations in the short run, the Bank of Japan validated this syndrome of the ever-higher yen by following a monetary policy that was deflationary relative to that established by the U.S. Federal Reserve System. The appreciating yen was a forcing variable in determining the Japanese price level. After 1985, this resulted in great macroeconomic instability in Japan--including two endaka fukyos (high-yen-induced recessions).
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, America, Israel, East Asia
  • Author: K.C. Fung, Lawrence Lau
  • Publication Date: 04-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: There are huge discrepancies between the official Chinese and U.S. estimates of the bilateral trade balance. The discrepancies are caused by different treatments accorded to re-exports through Hong Kong, re-export markups, and trade in services. Deficit-shifting between China, on the one hand, and Hong Kong and Taiwan, on the other, due to direct investment in China from Taiwan and Hong Kong, is partly responsible for the growth in the China United States bilateral trade deficit.
  • Topic: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Taiwan, Asia, Hong Kong
  • Author: Donald Emmerson, Henry Rowen, Michel Oksenberg, Daniel Okimoto, James Raphael, Thomas Rohlen, Michael H. Armacost
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: Since the end of the Cold War, the power and prestige of the United States in East Asia have suffered a worrisome degree of erosion. The erosion is, in part, the by-product of long-run secular trends, such as structural shifts in the balance of power caused by the pacesetting growth of East Asian economies. But the decline has been aggravated by shortcomings in U.S. policy toward East Asia, particularly the lack of a coherent strategy and a clear-cut set of policy priorities for the post-Cold War environment. If these shortcomings are not corrected, the United States runs the risk of being marginalized in East Asia--precisely at a time when our stakes in the region are as essential as those in any area of the world. What is needed, above all, is a sound, consistent, and publicly articulated strategy, one which holds forth the prospect of serving as the basis for a sustainable, nonpartisan domestic consensus. The elements of an emerging national consensus can be identified as follows:
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Vishakha N. Desai, Chang-lin Tien, Sanford J. Ungar, Robert T. Matsui, Shirley Young
  • Publication Date: 05-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia Society
  • Abstract: From its inception, more than two years ago, “Bridges with Asia: Asian Americans in the United States” has sought to explore the implications of the bicultural identity—felt or perceived—of the Asian American in a global community in which the Asia-Pacific region has become increasingly predominant. The purpose was to examine the possible relationship between two significant factors in America's national and international experience: the unprecedented growth of the Asian American population in the last three decades and the rise of the Asia-Pacific region as one of the world's most dynamic areas as well as the one most crucial to the future of the United States. With an active advisory committee composed of scholars, community leaders, and representatives of other cultural organizations (see the end of this report), we attempted to address a number of key issues ranging from economic relations between different regions of Asia and the United States to generational attitudes toward Asian Americans' countries of origin. The following questions provided the framework for discussion: What roles do Asian Americans play in the increased interaction between U.S. companies and Asian countries? How are they affecting the domestic economies of their countries of origin? How are Asian Americans perceived by local American political leaders and what is their impact upon American domestic politics? What role, if any, do they play in U.S. foreign policy toward particular Asian countries? How is the notion of “home” used by writers and artists of Asian origin? How are conceptions of loyalty or nationalism made manifest for diverse groups of Asian Americans who often have very little in common except for a census category, or how they are perceived by others?
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Asia
  • Author: Michael E. Mandelbaum, Richard C. Holbrooke
  • Publication Date: 12-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Good evening. Welcome to the second or the third of our Great Debates, it depends on how you're counting. The first formal one was about six weeks ago when Madeleine Albright, our new Secretary of State designate, and Jeane Kirkpatrick debated about the United Nations. Before that we had a trial run with Bob Ellsworth, one of Senator Dole's closest friends and advisors, and Tom Donilon, the chief of staff of the State Department.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, United Nations
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Laura D'Andrea Tyson, Haruhiko Kuroda, Dr. Norbert Walter, Robert C. Pozen, Thomas W. Jones, Alice M. Rivlin, Marshall Carter, Olivia S. Mitchell, Russell J. Cheetham, Yves Guerard, Jan Svejnar, David Hale, Martin S. Feldstein, Robert D. Hormats
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Social Security has been described as the crown jewel of American federal government programs. It is widely recognized to be the major reason why the poverty rate among the elderly in the United States has fallen in half since 1959 and is lower today than the poverty rate for any other population group as a whole. Fifteen million older Americans are kept out of poverty by Social Security.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Dr. LESLIE GELB (President, Council on Foreign Relations): Welcome, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Leslie Gelb. I'm president of the Council on Foreign Relations. And welcome, as well, to our audience from C-SPAN.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, National Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Madeleine Albright, Jeane Kirkpatrick
  • Publication Date: 09-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Presider: Dr. LESLIE GELB:: (President, Council on Foreign Relations): Pundits and pollsters tell us that the American people aren't paying much attention to foreign policy, and we can all understand that. But I think you will agree with me that if Americans would hear our guests tonight, they'd pull out their earplugs because our guests are two masters of statecraft and two possible Secretaries of State: Jeane Kirkpatrick and Madeleine Albright.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: David J. Vidal
  • Publication Date: 05-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: In the architecture of postwar American foreign policy, the twin themes of the Cold War and the national interest emerge as unshakable pillars. In the design of the conference, one session was set aside to explore the practical and political meanings of these themes for minorities. Conferees were asked to consider how Cold War foreign policy priorities intersected with minority concerns. They were also asked to assess whether the declaration made by Hans J. Morgenthau --that "we should have one guiding standard for thought and action, the national interest"--was a useful benchmark. These two points of departure struck the organizers as indispensable to any rethinking of the future.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Cold War, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Alexander Pikayev, Alexei Arbatov, Richard Speier, Rodney W. Jones, John Pike, Michael Nacht, Linton Brooks, Stephen Cambone, Seth Carus, Robert Einhorn, Ronald Lehman II, McCarthy Tim, Yuri Nazarkin, Keith Payne, Henry Sokolski, Mikhail Streltsov
  • Publication Date: 02-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: The first panel focused on the U.S. and Russian stakes in strategic arms control, the prospects for START II ratification in Russia, the status of START III issues, and the possibilities for cooperative approaches to the issues of strategic offense-defense interaction. The Russian panelists, Ambassadors Yuri Nazarkin and Mikhail Streltsov, and State Duma member Alexei Arbatov, explained Russia's START II reservations, steps in the ratification process, and expected implementation problems in eliminating Russia's multiple warhead (MIRVed) intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). On balance, they agreed that START II serves Russia's basic interests, in lower levels of strategic arms, eventual economic savings, and political and military parity with the United States. They acknowledged that the ball is now in Russia's court, and ventured that parliament's approval probably would occur eventually.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States
  • Author: Monique Borrel, Stephen Bornstein, Pierre-Eric Tixier, Chris Benner, Julia E. Kopich, W. Norton Grubb
  • Publication Date: 02-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: From the beginning of the industrial era to the present time, French social history has been characterized by recurrent strikes of great magnitude. Contrary to most postwar industrialized countries where large strikes ceased to play a key role in sociopolitical changes, the French case presents an important anomaly. This research demonstrates that strikes have been instrumental in reshaping French society since the early 1950s. First, strike waves and generalized disputes supported the rapid expansion of the Welfare State throughout the postwar period. They also prompted leftist parties and unions to achieve coordination in their strategies and to orchestrate national demonstration strikes, which resulted in the emergence of a leftist electoral majority. Besides, the 1968 strike waves and the leftist strategy to achieve political power supported the upward trend in unionization in the 1970s. Beginning in the early 1980s, this French pattern of strikes has resulted in a number of perverse effects that account for the crisis of the mid1990s. In that respect, the French experience supports the idea that advanced industrial societies cannot afford recurrent general strikes without damaging the very fabric of democracy and without jeopardizing their economic future.
  • Topic: Education, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: America, Europe, France
  • Author: Wolfgang Seibel, Christopher S. Allen, Hans-Georg Betz, Henry Kreikenbaum, John Leslie, Andrei S. Markovitz, Ann L. Phillips, Michaela W. Richter
  • Publication Date: 03-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: According to West German standards, there is only a weak nonprofit sector in East Germany today. The East German quasi-nonprofit sector nonetheless is an indispensable institutional ingredient of political integration. It is characterized by an amazing degree of structural and ideological continuity. Much of its organizational setting dates back to the pre-1989 era. Both funding and managerial attitudes are shaped by state-centeredness. Nonprofit institutions are heavily engaged in mitigating the social costs of economic transformation. Many of them, especially at the local level, are controlled by members of the former-communist PDS (Party of Democratic Socialism). Thus, the East German quasinonprofit sector presumably integrates two important societal groups more effectively than the regular polity: those alienated from the new democracy due to economic disappointment or deprivation and those alienated from the new democracy due to ideological reasons (former communists in particular). This indicates a remarkable institutional elasticity whose main function is to "synchronize" the dramatically accelerated pace of political change and the much slower pace of societal change.
  • Topic: Cold War, Democratization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Daniel N. Nelson, Andrei S. Markovits, Thomas Banchoff, Patricia A. Davis, Christian Deubner, Lily Gardner Feldman, JoEllyn Murillo Fountain, Stefan Immerfall, Michael Kreile, Carl Lankowski, Barbara Lippert, Susanne Peters, Elke Thiel, Wolfgang Wessels
  • Publication Date: 04-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: This paper seeks to explain the continuity in German policy in Europe across the 1990 divide. Although the collapse of the Soviet bloc and reunification transformed the context of German foreign policy, its fundamental direction remained unchanged. The new Germany, like the old, made solidarity with the western allies the cornerstone of its policy in Europe. Chancellor Helmut Kohl did address new policy challenges in the East. But he made stronger western institutions, and a deeper European Union in particular, his top priorities. Neorealism and neoliberalism, this paper argues, cannot adequately explain the strong western orientation of the Federal Republic in the early 1990s. The constellation of power and institutions at the international level left German leaders with different ways to combine association with the West and engagement in the East. In order to explain the priority accorded solidarity with the West, it is necessary to bring in the foreign policy priorities espoused by Kohl and the views of history and its lessons that informed them.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy
  • Political Geography: Europe, Germany
  • Author: Ole Wæver
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California
  • Abstract: Where is Germany heading? So we have been asking ourselves since the wall fell. We had been reasonably calmed down: they were apparently not out for new adventures of their own. No Eastward going it alone -- neither in Eastern Europe, nor with the Russians. Nor any autonomous power politics. On the contrary, Germany has primarily made itself noticed in global politics through its continued restraint, from half-hearted support in the Gulf War to qualms over participation in UN operations.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Germany
  • Author: Wayne Sandholtz, Alec Stone Sweet
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California
  • Abstract: We posit a continuum of modes of governance, anchored at the poles by intergovernmental and supranational politics. Movement from intergovernmental politics toward the supranational pole implies the increasing importance of three factors in EU policymaking: EU rules, EU organizations, and transnational society. We propose that an increase in one of the three factors creates conditions that favor growth in the other two. We also offer a theory as to what drives initial movement toward supranational governance: increasing levels of cross-border transactions and communications by societal actors will increase the perceived need for European-level rules, coordination, and dispute resolution mechanisms. The theory provides a coherent answer to the question of why integration proceeds faster in some domains than in others. We expect movement toward supranational governance in sectors where the intensity and value of cross-border transactions is rising.
  • Topic: Government, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Alec Stone Sweet, James A. Caporaso
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California
  • Abstract: In this paper, we propose a dynamic theory of legal integration, test the model quantitatively, and then cross-check it by way of process tracing. We show that transnational exchange, litigation, and the production of Euro-rules have evolved interdependently, and argue that this interdependence provokes and reinforces the spillover effects that partly drive the construction of supranational governance. In case studies of the impact of the legal system on outcomes in two areas, the free movement of goods and European social provisions, we show that our model outperforms the dominant framework for understanding how the EC legal system operates - intergovernmentalism. In each of these areas, the data show that the legal system functions to reduce member-state government control over policy outcomes, and to enhance the influence of supranational institutions, national judges, and private actors.
  • Topic: Government, International Law, International Organization, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Neil Fligstein, Jason McNichol
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: One of the central issues in making sense of the European Union is the question of the degree to which it functions as an autonomous state. One pole of this debate conceives of the EU as a supranational entity while the other argues that it remains an intergovernmental bargain. Here, we propose to analyze the EU in terms of the structuring of its policy domains. 12 of 17 domains appear organized by nongovernmental organizations. We conclude that while the governments retain direct control over important parts of the EU, they have allowed most policy domains at the EU level to become autonomous.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Paul Pierson
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: Many European and American observers of the EC have criticized "intergovernmentalist" accounts for exaggerating the extent of member state control over the process of European integration. This essay seeks to ground these criticisms in a historical institutionalist" account that stresses the need to study European integration as a political process which unfolds over time. Such a perspective highlights the limits of member state control over long-term institutional development. Losses of control result from member state preoccupation with short-term concerns, the ubiquity of unintended consequences, and processes that "lock in" past decisions and make reassertions of member state authority difficult. Brief examination of the evolution of EC social policy suggests the limitations of treating the EC as an institutional "instrument" facilitating collective action among sovereign states. It is more useful to view integration as a path-dependent process that has produced a fragmented but still discernible multi-tiered European polity.
  • Topic: International Organization, Politics, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: America, Europe
  • Author: Wayne Sandholtz
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California
  • Abstract: The patchwork of national telecommunications monopolies in the EU was incapable of meeting a rapidly growing need on the part of societal actors for efficient, technologically advanced, cross-border telecommunications. The Commission mobilized various transnational actors -- equipment manufacturers, business users, providers of new services, suppliers of alternative infrastructures -- to support its plans for EU-level liberalization and harmonization. Whereas in a first phase the Commission acted as a source of initiatives and models for states whose policies were in flux, the second phase saw a dramatic shift in the nature of governance. Employing its powers under Article 90 of the Treaty (which does not require Council approval), the Commission set out to abolish national monopolies in telecoms equipment, services, and, finally, infrastructures. The telecoms case thus supports three of the project's central propositions: that societal transactions drive movement toward supranational governance; that changes in EU rules, organizations, and transnational society are interlinked; and that member states do not always control these processes of institutionalization.
  • Topic: Government, International Political Economy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: Everyone studing EMU cites the theory of Optimum Currency Areas: whether a country like Sweden should join the currency union depends on such parameters as the extent of Swedish trade with other EU members and the correlation of Sweden's income with that of other members. Few economists have focused on what we consider one of the most interesting aspects of this issue. Trade patterns and income correlation are endogenous. Sweden could fail the OCA criterion for membership today, and yet, if it goes ahead and joins anyway, could, as the result of joining, pass the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) criterion in the future. (Further, even if Sweden does not enter EMU quickly, it will be more likely to satisfy the OCA criteria in the future as a result of its recent accession to the EU.) The few economists who have identified the importance of the endogeneity of trade patterns and income correlation are divided on the nature of the relationship between the two. This is an important empirical question, which may hold the key to the answer regarding whether it is in Sweden's income interest to join EMU. We review the OCA theory, highlighting the role of trade links and income links. Then we discuss and analyze the endogeneity of these parameters. We present econometric evidence suggesting strongly that if trade links between Sweden and the rest of Europe strengthen in the future, then Sweden's income will become more highly correlated with European income in the future (not less correlated, as some have claimed). This has important implications for the OCA criterion. It means that a naïve examination of historical data gives a biased picture of the effects of EMU entry on Sweden. It also means that EMU membership is more likely to make sense for Sweden in the future than it does today.
  • Topic: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, Sweden
  • Author: Susanne K. Schmidt
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: European competition law allocates far-reaching competences to the European Commission. The paper asks for the conditions under which the Commission may use these rights against the member states, focusing on the most powerful provision - the right of the Commission under Article 90 to issue directives by itself in those cases where member-state governments have allocated specific rights to undertakings that conflict with the Treaty's rules. In addition the Commission may pursue Treaty violations on a case-by-case basis. In European telecommunications policy the Commission has used its powers rather successfully, with all liberalization decisions being based on Article 90. But for European electricity policy the Commission has shrunk away from using these powers in favor of initiating council legislation. The paper analyzes the conditions of the Commission's ability to act under European competition law in a multi-level framework, drawing among others on a principal-agent approach.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Government, International Law, International Political Economy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Frank Schimmelfennig
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: Two seemingly contradictory trends dominate the European debate over legitimate rule. On the one hand, there appears to be no ideologically viable alternative to liberal democracy following the collapse of the Eastern Bloc. On the other, the rapid progress of European integration has triggered an intense public debate over the European Union's "legitimacy deficit" and active popular opposition in many Western European countries. This paper asks whether these two seemingly contradictory developments can be reconciled. It argues that they can once it is recognized that the modern inter-state system is undergoing profound change. State sovereignty is being undermined by the trans-nationalization of foreign policy and the inter-nationalization of governance. In particular, the European Union has crossed the border from horizontal (or anarchical) interstate cooperation to vertical (or hierarchical) policy making in a multi-level political system in which states are but one level of the policy.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, International Organization, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Gregory W. Noble
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
  • Abstract: The last decade has witnessed a momentous transformation in the political economy of East and Southeast Asia. From the 1950s until the early 1980s transnational production played a limited role in the strategies of Northeast Asian governments and firms. Ubiquitous policies of protection and promotion aimed to increase domestic investment, production and exports. Governments discouraged outward investment through financial controls, particularly over foreign currencies; they limited inward foreign investment to narrowly confined niches, and then often subjected it to onerous restrictions to prevent foreigners from gaining a major foothold in the national economy. The few exceptions involved areas in which domestic production was inadequate: investments in Southeast Asian raw materials and energy; investments by Japanese and Western firms in Korea and Taiwan for some labor-intensive products to be sold in local or third-country markets (but rarely in Japan); and a handful of high-tech investments by Western firms such as IBM which enjoyed such strong patent positions that they could not be forced to license their technology. Since the mid-1980s the combination of rapid currency appreciation, rising costs of labor, land and pollution control in Northeast Asia, and liberalizing economic reforms in Southeast Asia led to a huge surge of direct foreign investment, mainly for the production of labor-intensive manufactured goods. The focal point of Northeast Asian economies shifted from export-led growth based on protected domestic markets to management of regional production networks spread throughout Asia.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Japan, Taiwan, Asia, Korea
  • Author: Edmund A. Egan
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
  • Abstract: Microsoft Corporation, the largest company in the US software industry, has been under anti-trust scrutiny from the Department of Justice for most of the 1990s. In 1995, its planned acquisition of Intuit, Inc. prompted a Silicon Valley law firm, on behalf of unnamed complainants, to submit a White Paper to the DOJ, on the subject of Microsoft's long-term strategy. The White Paper, relying on the theoretical concepts of network externalities and lock-in effects, argues that Microsoft will use Intuit's products to attain monopolistic positions in network operating systems, on-line services, and electronic commerce, and will eventually be in a position to affect the content transmitted over electronic networks.
  • Topic: Industrial Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Andrew Young
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: This year, the world celebrated the 100th anniversary of the modern Olympiad. Consider this vision of a world at peace: The opening ceremonies in Atlanta's Centennial Olympic Stadium, where more than 10,000 athletes from 197 countries gathered to demonstrate the highest ideals—teamwork, sportsmanship, and recognition of personal achievement. All invited countries participated, free of the ideological and political restraints that prevented many from attending in years past. For 16 days in July and August the world came together to honor those striving to surmount universal standards of excellence. Our hearts reached out to the hurdler who stumbled just before the finish line, the marathon runner who shook off fatigue, the Paralympian who rose above all expectations. We saw, for a brief moment, the potential all of us have to better ourselves and our world.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Government
  • Political Geography: United Nations
  • Publication Date: 03-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: The Carter Center convened a small, informal meeting to examine the question of whether there might be developed "more effective" international economic sanctions -- those which better achieve desired political goals without causing great suffering to innocent people. President Carter and others have expressed frustration that recent sanctioning efforts have fallen short of their objectives, yet sanctions appear to be one of the only tools available to the international community short of a resort to force. This meeting, chaired by Harry Barnes, Director of the Conflict Resolution and Human Rights programs at The Carter Center, set out to identify 1) what factors might be involved in designing more effective sanctions; 2) what obstacles must be overcome; 3) what steps governments and international bodies such as the United Nations might take to improve sanctions; and 4) what steps might be taken by non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The following is a summary of the discussion and possible follow-up actions, paying particular attention on potential roles for NGOs.
  • Topic: International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United Nations
  • Author: Robert A. Pastor
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: In my travels throughout Latin America, I have always found the region's leaders eager to converse with American statesmen, but with few exceptions, they mostly had to content themselves with speaking to specialists like me. The kind of transnational dialogue that would permit hemispheric relations to rise to a higher level just did not exist. When President Carter asked if I would direct a new program at The Carter Center, my thoughts turned to the question of whether I could help form a group of senior statesmen from thoughts the hemisphere, who not only could consult with each other, but also work together to advance the ideals of human rights, democracy, social justice, and equitable development that lie at the core of the inter-American promise.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Human Rights
  • Political Geography: United States, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean
  • Author: Yagil Levy
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Studies of Social Change
  • Abstract: Wars produce contrasting effects on the state's status in the domestic arena: they bolster its internal control but, at the same time, create opportunities for collective action of which domestic groups can take advantage and weaken state autonomy. As the case of Israel suggests, within the confines of geo-political constraints, states modify their military doctrine to balance the two contradictory impacts. The main purpose of the paper is to lay the foundation for a Sociology of Strategy by drawing on the case of Israel.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Richard Whitman
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster
  • Abstract: The Treaty on European Union (TEU, or 'Maastricht Treaty'), which came into force on 1 November 1993, established a 'three pillar' structure for the new European Union. Pillar one consists of the European Communities - the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC); the European Atomic Energy Community (EAEC); and the European Community (EC). Pillars Two and Three were introduced by the TEU and consist of, respectively, the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and co-operation in Home and Judicial Affairs (HJA).
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Sofía Gallardo C.
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: With the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement different view regarding the possible environmental risks and the measures that had to be taken in order to be able to manage them were expressed. Some environmental organizations for the first time sought to influence international trading issues in local, national and trinational networks. Current globalization processes have established new challenges to the citizens because they have forced them to focus their political action simultaneously in national, regional and global public scenarios. Therefore, Mexican, Canadian and American citizens have been increasingly involved in their countries' economic integration processes, creating awareness of the possible risks generated by the current globalization patterns and of the ways in which they can be affected. This paper concentrates on the challenges that civic organizations in general, and environmental groups in particular, have had to confront in order to maintain or try to improve their living standards with the implementation of NAFTA and offers some considerations on the successes and failures of civic and environmental actions in the purview of NAFTA.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: America, Canada, North America, Mexico
  • Author: Jesus Velasco
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: The classification of current political tendencies in the United States is sometimes confusing. Since the beginning of Ronald Reagan's first presidential campaign, American journalists and scholars have used indistinctly terms like right, conservatism, neoconservatism, ultraconservatism, extreme right, New Right, etc., to define the different political forces behind Reagan's ascent to the White House. This confusion is evident in the work of John Judis. He believes that Kevin Phillips (a conservative scholar), Paul Weyrich (a New Right activist), Irving Kristol (a neoconservative leader), and William Buckley (a traditional conservative), could all be embraced within the term "conservative" without considering any differences in their theoretical and political position.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Susanne Lutz
  • Publication Date: 12-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
  • Abstract: The debate on economic 'globalization' suggests that the blurring of territorial boundaries shifts the power relations between nation-states and domestic market constituencies in favour of the latter. States have lost autonomy since policies are increasingly formulated in supranational or global arenas. Market actors may use their wider choice of geographic location in order to lobby for low regulated market environments. The paper seeks to differentiate this common view considerably. It argues that economic internationalization weakens the capacity of domestic market actors to engage in self-binding agreements that formerly had solved regulatory problems. Networks of interstate collaboration in turn lack the ability to monitor and enforce negotiated agreements. Both developments impose new duties of market supervision on the nation-state. Empirical reference is drawn from the stock exchange sector that went through a process of transformation which has led to an enhanced role of the nation-state in the model of sectoral governance.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Reiner Grundmann
  • Publication Date: 12-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
  • Abstract: Successful international cooperation is a puzzling problem for social scientists. The ozone layer has been subject to both international treaties and domestic legislation. It is one of the foremost success stories in international relations, yet insufficiently understood. In this paper I argue that existing approaches - including the sophisticated and highly acclaimed epistemic community approach - do not take the underlying theoretical problems seriously enough. Departing from the epistemic community approach, I propose a framework for a network analysis combining interests, knowledge and power into a coherent model, which is derived from this case but can apply to similar cases sharing similar characteristics. It is argued that one of two rivaling policy networks gained hegemony over the other, mainly by winning over allies from the competing network. Ultimately this contributed to the competing network's breakdown.
  • Topic: International Relations, Environment, International Cooperation
  • Author: Lykke Friis
  • Publication Date: 12-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: For a short period in May 1998, Denmark once again found itself in the European limelight. After the Danish no to the Maastricht Treaty in June 1992, European governments held their breath when the Danes were called to the ballot box on the 28th of May to accept or reject the Treaty of Amsterdam. A quick glance at the actual debate and the final result could easily leave the impression that everything was business-as-usual. Just like in 1972, 1986, 1992 and 1993 the debate largely centered around broad issues, such as the pros and the cons of Danish EU-membership and the danger of 'little Denmark' being swallowed by the 'big EU'. The final outcome of the referendum also looked familiar: Although 55.1 per cent of the Danish population voted in favor of the Treaty, a large minority continued to give an EU-Treaty their thumbs-down.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Bjørn Moller
  • Publication Date: 07-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Wonderful though it would be, in the real world it is not always possible to combine whatever is desirable and valuable. The present author holds (at least) two things to possess these qualities, namely a defensive restructuring of the armed forces and an expanded role for the United Nations. The purpose of the present paper is to analyze whether these two desiderata are possible to combine, or whether any incorrectable incompatibilities necessitate a choice between the two. The diagram below illustrates some of the possible inherent dilemmas in the form of a hierarchy of values, with an indication of logical (dotted lines) and causal (arrows) connections.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Author: Alexander A. Sergounin
  • Publication Date: 07-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The end of the Cold War, the collapse of the USSR and its Marxist ideology, and the re-emergence of the Russian Federation as a separate, independent entity have compelled Russia to redefine its national interests and make major adjustments in the spheres of both foreign policy and international relations theory (IRT). These enormous tasks, together with an attendant polarisation of opinion on how to deal with them, have pitted Russia's policy makers and experts against one another in a fierce battle of world views. This debate is far from at an end. Neither a new security identity nor a coherent foreign policy strategy have yet been found.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Environment, Government, Politics, Religion
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Pertti Joenniemi
  • Publication Date: 06-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Traditionally regarded as a fairly stable configuration, Norden has in recent years become one of the more uncertain cases on the European agenda. Obviously, it cannot remain unaffected once a new and different logic sets in and drastically reshapes the political landscape also in the northern part of Europe. The range of options is quite broad. Norden might establish itself as a central acronym or, on the contrary, develop into one of the more problematic configurations with a rather bleak future.
  • Topic: Security, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Wolfgang Biermann, Martin Vadset
  • Publication Date: 04-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: UN Peacekeeping after the Cold War shows that options of what the international community can achieve by intervening into or after civil war-like conflicts are in reality more limited than political or moral desires may demand. Finding out the criteria of the 'practicability' and feasibility of UN mandates is a challenging task for research as well as for political and military decision-makers. The Danish Norwegian Research Project on UN Peacekeeping (DANORP) has considered the peacekeepers themselves as a best resource to answer the question of 'practicability' of mandates they are expected to implement, and to identify political and operational "secrets of success" or "reasons for failure".
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe
  • Author: G. John Ikenberry, Daniel Deudney
  • Publication Date: 05-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics, University of Pennsylvania
  • Abstract: The end of the Cold War has triggered new debates about international relations theory. Most of the attention has been focused on explaining the end of the Cold War. Equally important, however, this epochal development raises new questions about the impact of forty years of East-West rivalry on the relations among the Western liberal democracies. This issue is not simply of passing historical interest because it bears on our expectations about the future trajectory of relations among the great powers in the West. Will the end of the Cold War lead to the decline of cooperative relations among the Western liberal democracies? Will major Western political institutions, such as NATO and the U.S.-Japanese alliance, fall apart? Will "semi-sovereign" Germany and Japan revert to traditional great power status? Will the United States return to its traditional isolationist posture? Our answers to these questions depend upon the sources of Western order: was the Cold War the primary cause of Western solidarity or does the West have a distinctive and robust political order that predated and paralleled the Cold War?
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Europe, Germany