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  • Author: Zdzislaw Lachowski, Björn Hagelin, Sam Perlo-Freeman, Petter Stålenheim, Dmitri Trofimov, Alyson J. K. Bailes
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: The international attention paid to the nations of the South Caucasus region and Central Asia—a group of post-Soviet states beyond Europe's conventional frontiers but included in the Conference on/Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE/OSCE)—has been fitful at best over the past decade. During the last years of the 20th and at the start of the 21st century, after the conflicts in Georgia and Nagorno-Karabakh became (at least partly) 'frozen', security concerns about the regions tended to decline and to become overshadowed both by 'oil diplomacy' and by concern about developments within Russia itself, in Chechnya and Dagestan. In 2002–2003 a constellation of changes in the outside world has started to reverse this pattern. Chechnya is no longer a regular topic of high-level political debate between Russia and the West, and President Vladimir Putin has played the anti-terrorist card with some success to secure his freedom to deal with it as an internal security matter. The factors prompting greater international attention to Russia's south-western and southern neighbours, by contrast, have the potential to undermine—perhaps for good—any Russian pretension to decisive influence or an exclusive droit de regard in these regions. At the time of writing, however, this latest shift could again be called in question by a new diversion of focus to the 'greater Middle East' following hostilities in Iraq.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Russia, Iraq, Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Middle East, Chechnya, Georgia
  • Author: Ekaterina Stepanova
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: Since the tragic events of 11 September 2001, much has been said about potential links between the fight against terrorism and peace-building. In the meantime, the fight against terrorism and peace-building have, by and large, continued to be implemented separately and by different sets of actors.
  • Topic: Security, Peace Studies, Terrorism
  • Author: Eugene B. Rumer
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The Central Asian political landscape yields few signs of an impending storm in the near term. The absence of threats to the status quo, however, does not mean that it is acceptable or that it represents a stable political equilibrium in the region. Leadership succession in Central Asia bears watching for several reasons: as a precedent-setting process, it will provide the key missing element for the emerging political structures of the Central Asian states the tenure of the next generation will either make up for the shortcomings of its predecessors or aggravate them in the event of the latter, the stage will be set in Central Asia for more radical changes that could reverberate far beyond remote regional boundaries.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Government
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Howard M. Krawitz
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: China's accelerated push to modernize the People's Liberation Army (PLA) raises two important questions: What impact will such change have upon the PLA image, status, and role in Chinese society? And how will Chinese military modernization affect the strategic interests and security concerns of the United States and China's neighbors in the region? Making the PLA into a more professional, technologically proficient force would certainly strengthen its capability to perform national defense, regional security, and other externally oriented missions more effectively. But modernization could also significantly change internal PLA demographics, resulting in a drastic alteration of the social contract that has traditionally existed between China's military and civilian society.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, China
  • Author: Leo L Michel
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: It should come as no surprise that North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officials are fond of citing Mark Twain's retort to doomsayers that reports of his death were greatly exaggerated. Having survived many rough tests since its birth, the 54-year-old alliance is still working to recover from a bruising disagreement among its members over the decision by some to oust Saddam Hussein's regime. Its services, however, are still very much in demand: About 37,000 NATO-led military personnel remain on crisis management duty in the Balkans. NATO recently launched its first out-of- Europe operation, taking command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. In July 2003, the Senate voted unanimously to encourage the Bush administration to seek help from NATO in Iraq. Several prominent Members of Congress and nongovernmental experts have called for a NATO peacekeeping mission between Israelis and Palestinians.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Europe, North Atlantic, Israel, Balkans
  • Author: Howard M. Krawitz
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Clearly, Washington and Beijing do not see eye to eye on North Korea. From the U.S. perspective, North Korea is a rogue state (one that is still technically a U.S. enemy, to boot), with an announced intent to develop further its nuclear capability and acquire nuclear weapons—in spite of formal agreements in which Pyongyang promised not to engage in such pursuits. Pyongyang's rhetoric and behavior highlight its willingness to use nuclear blackmail as a tool for achieving its aims. It has heightened tensions by implying that it might export nuclear weapons or fissile material if its needs are not met. Summed up, North Korea poses a tangible, real-time threat to U.S. allies in East Asia and to U.S. national security interests.
  • Topic: Security, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: China, Washington, Israel, North Korea
  • Author: M. Elaine Bunn
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: What role should preemptive action play in U.S. national strategy? In the wake of the first public statements by President George W. Bush in June 2002, and in the buildup to military action against Iraq, the issue quickly became a lightning rod for controversy. While some commentators hailed preemption as a valuable concept whose time had come, others condemned it as a dangerous precedent that could damage American interests, strain our relations overseas, and make the United States a feared unilateralist in the international system. All the hue and cry has done little to clarify the issues and choices that policymakers face in weighing the utility and limits of the concept.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America
  • Author: Teresita C. Schaffer
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The combined talents of the people of India and Pakistan, with the fitful help of a long list of others, have been trying for over 50 years to resolve the Kashmir issue. This essay offers no ready-made answers but rather suggestions on where to begin to look for them. Experience with other recent peace processes teaches valuable lessons about how would-be peacemakers need to approach their task and the ways in which third parties can help.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, South Asia, India
  • Author: Joseph McMillan
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The reconstruction and reform of the Iraqi armed forces will inevitably take place in the context of both Iraq's present and past. Saddam Hussein and his predecessors, going back to the creation of the state, have left Iraq a legacy of endemic domestic political violence, dysfunctional civil-military relations, and, in recent decades, an ideology of unremitting hostility to virtually every one of Iraq's neighbors.
  • Topic: Security, Government
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Kim Dong Shin
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (September 2002) provides an important framework from which to examine the current crisis on the Korean Peninsula and other challenges in Northeast Asia. With its focus on terrorism and weapons of mass destruction (WMD), this strategy is concerned with North Korea as much as, if not more than, any other state. In particular, North Korea poses a unique set of challenges in regard to WMD. North Korea stands in sharp contrast to the Republic of Korea (ROK) on issues such as human rights, democracy, and market economies. The National Security Strategy suggests that the United States should revitalize its alliance with South Korea, while encouraging North Korea to transform its political and economic system. Yet South Korea and the United States are currently having some difficulties in developing a consensus on how to approach Pyongyang, and appear to have no clear plan to operationalize the strategy to deal with North Korea.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Asia, North Korea
  • Author: Bernard D. Cole
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: In 1933, Alice Tisdale Hobart, wife of the Standard Oil Company of New Jersey manager in Nanking, published Oil for the Lamps of China. Hobart had traveled widely in China and proved to be a very observant imperialist. Her fictional account of her experiences, not surprisingly, focused on the role played by Western businessmen, especially those engaged in importing and selling petroleum products. One thread that runs through her work is Chinese dependence on foreign sources of energy supplies, which remains the case today. This dependence on foreign- controlled sources means that Beijing's efforts to ensure the availability of energy resources adequate to fuel the nation's economic growth have important national security implications.
  • Topic: Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Environment
  • Political Geography: China, Beijing, Asia
  • Author: Rose Gottemoeller, Ray Takeyh, Danielle Pletka, Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, Dennis Ross, Geoffrey Kemp, Henry Sokolski, Reuel Marc Gerecht, Ladan Boroumand, Thomas McInerney
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
  • Abstract: I'm Patrick Clawson, the Deputy Director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. I would like to thank all of our guests for attending this event today. If I could just take a couple of minutes to explain what our intention is in organizing this event, and then we can plunge right in, after we go around the table and everyone introduces themselves.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States, Iran, Middle East
  • Author: Laura Neuman
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: Following the 1997 elections, the Jamaican electoral authorities instituted a number of reforms to improve the electoral process and increase voter confidence in its credibility. Measures such as purifying the electoral registry, appointing a nonpartisan corps of election day workers, and instituting a policy of consultative decision-making underpinned these successful administrative efforts. More difficult to address than the technical components of the election, however, was the continuing fear of violence and intimidation. Innovative models of conflict prevention and resolution were designed and, to a greater or lesser degree, implemented. Overall, The Carter Center found the 2002 Jamaican elections to be exemplary in its organization and preparations and to reflect adequately the will of the people. Nevertheless, we remain concerned over the violence during the campaign period and the voter intimidation that persisted in these elections, as well as the deleterious effect of the political tribalism and garrison phenomenon.
  • Topic: Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization
  • Political Geography: Caribbean, Jamaica
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: Kenya's independence leader, Jomo Kenyatta, of the Kenya African National Union (KANU), held power from independence in June 1963 to the time of his death in August 1978. He was succeeded by then Vice President Daniel arap Moi, who retained the presidency through Kenya's multiparty elections in 1992 and 1997. However, both elections were marred by controversy owing to political violence, widespread voting irregularities, and fraud.
  • Topic: Political Violence, Civil Society, Corruption, Democratization, Human Rights
  • Political Geography: Kenya, Africa
  • Author: James Clay Moltz
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
  • Abstract: Although missiles, missile defense technology, and space issues are intricately related, most policy analysis tends to treat each in a separate category. This tendency causes policymakers to miss the linkages among them and the overlap in the issues that affect developments in each of the other sectors. For this reason, four organizations—the Mountbatten Centre of the University of Southampton, the Simons Centre of the University of British Columbia, the U.N. Center for Disarmament Research in Geneva, and the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) of the Monterey Institute of International Studies—decided to organize a joint international conference that would consciously explore these linkages and treat the relevant issues in an integrated manner, benefiting from the expertise of specialists present from each of the three fields.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Geneva, United Nations
  • Author: Charles D. Ferguson, Tahseen Kazi, Judith Perera
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
  • Abstract: This study examines the security risks posed by commercial radioactive sources. While these sources provide benefits to humanity through numerous applications in medicine, industry, and research, some of these same materials, if not secured, may end up in radiological dispersal devices (RDDs)—one type of which is popularly known as a “dirty bomb.” Though RDD use has not occurred, the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, al Qaeda's expressed interest in acquiring the means to unleash radiological terror, and widespread news reporting on this topic have sparked renewed concern about the security of commercial radioactive sources.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Counterinsurgency
  • Author: Robert Giloth
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Assembly at Columbia University
  • Abstract: Confronted with businesses facing a long-term shortage of skilled workers and evaluations showing that job training for the poor over the past 25 years had produced only meager results, a number of groups throughout the country have sought to find a more effective approach. The efforts of these partnerships, which editor Robert Giloth calls 'workforce intermediaries', are characterized by a focus on improving business productivity and helping low-income individuals not just find a job, but advance over time to jobs that enable them to support themselves and their families. This book takes stock of the world of workforce intermediaries: entrepreneurial partnerships that include businesses, unions, community colleges, and community organizations. Noted scholars and policy makers examine the development and effectiveness of these intermediaries, and a concluding chapter discusses how to provide a more coherent approach to increasing the viability and capacity of these important institutions.
  • Topic: Economics, Education, Human Welfare, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Assembly at Columbia University
  • Abstract: America is many things. At our core we are a commercial society. Our commercial society underwrites our prosperity. It is the basis not just for jobs and for wealth creation unparalleled in history, but more broadly it is a vehicle for consumer choice and upward mobility, the financier of our great cultural and educational institutions, and the basis for the income of a democratic government that has provided the world with its longest-lived constitution and history’s most open and free society.
  • Author: Pierre Martin
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: French Politics, Culture Society
  • Institution: Conference Group on French Politics Society
  • Abstract: The 2002 presidential and parliamentary elections were marked by stunning outcomes, like the defeat of socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin in the first round of the presidential election and the reelection of incumbing President Jacques Chirac, who garnered more than 80 percent of the votes and defeated the far right candidate, Jean- Marie Le Pen. The presidential election was also marked by a weakening of the communist party, which collected less than 5 percent of the votes, and an exceptional rise of the far right. The number of abstentions was also on the rise. As for the parliamentary elections, they represented a blunt defeat for the left and reinstated the moderate right in power, unified as UMP behind its leader Jacques Chirac. Still, even such major electoral moves were not able to destroy the roots of the party system and electoral order instated after the 1981-1984 years.
  • Author: Sophie Meunier
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: French Politics, Culture Society
  • Institution: Conference Group on French Politics Society
  • Abstract: France has become a worldwide champion of anti-globalization. French intellectuals have long denounced the cultural and economic shortcomings of US-led globalization, while French politicians, on the Left as on the Right, load their speeches with rhetoric critical of a phenomenon that gets a lot less attention in other European countries and in the United States. Yet, at the same time, France is a country whose economy and society have adapted well to this much-criticized globalization. Why this double-speak? Why this disjuncture between words and actions? This article explores this paradox, analyzes the role that France's double discourse on globalization has played in producing the surprising outcome of the 2002 elections, and reflects on the options open to the main political parties today.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, France