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41901. A Note on Credit Allocation, Income Distribution, and the Circuit of Capital (pdf)

Author:
Paulo dos Santos
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This note considers the relationship between credit allocation and the aggregate, class distribution of income in the Circuit of Capital. Production and consumption credit inject means of purchase in different locations in the monetary circuits of capitalist reproduction. On the basis of comparative-dynamic analysis of the properties of steady-state evolutions, the note shows that production credit increases the wage share in total income, while consumption credit increases profit shares. These findings hold in general for any evolution in which sectoral revenue- elasticities of outlays measure less than unity. The note also motivates a new endogenous approach to the aggregate distribution of income, and offers new analytical tools facilitating work based on demand-constrained models of the Circuit of Capital.
Topic:
Inequality, Income Inequality, Economic Theory, Credit, and Capital
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41902. Financing Water in Africa

Author:
Kate Bayliss
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Despite repeated policy initiatives from donors and governments, the human and economic cost of continued lack of access to safe water and sanitation in sub‐Saharan Africa remains high. This paper shows that a radical reorientation of policy is needed to achieve a significant increase in investment finance in order to raise access levels. Rather than continuing to pursue policies that have failed for the past two decades, such as bringing in the private sector and raising prices to cost recovery levels, attention needs to shift to wider aspects of domestic revenue mobilization to support public investment.
Topic:
Privatization, Water, Inequality, Investment, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
Africa

41903. A History of Polyvalent Structural Parameters: the Case of Instrument Variable Estimato

Author:
Duo Qin and Yanqun Zhang
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper investigates the rise and fall of the IV method in macro-econometric models and its subsequent revival in micro-econometric models. The key findings are: (i) the IV method implicitly breaks the contemporaneously circular causality postulated in a simultaneous- equation model (SEM) by redefining the conditional variable concerned as a suboptimal conditional expectation of it; (ii) the IV method falls out of favour in macro-econometrics mainly because of lack of empirical validations for such redefinitions; (iii) the IV method wins its popularity in micro-econometrics by its capacity to produce multiple suboptimal conditional expectations of the latent conditional variables of interest under the disguise of an SEM consistent estimator; nevertheless, (iv) such suboptimal conditional expectations give rise to the insurmountable difficulty of credibly interpreting the IV-based parameter estimates, especially in the case of prognosticated omitted variable bias. The findings highlight the methodological drawback of the estimator-centric strategy of textbook econometrics.
Topic:
Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, and Microeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41904. Modelling Scale Effect in Crosssection Data:The Case of Hedonic Price Regression

Author:
Duo Qin and Yimeng Liu
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
An innovative and simple experiment with cross-section data ordering is carried out to exploit a basic and common feature between many economic variables – nonlinear scale dependence. The experiment is tried on hedonic price regression models using two data sets, one for automobiles and the other computers. The key findings are: (a) Hedonic price indices can be significantly biased if they are constructed using models which disregard possible nonlinear scale effects latent in random data samples; (b) Scale-based data ordering offers considerable potential to filter such scale-dependent information from cross-section samples; (c) The filtering can be easily carried out by systematic adoption of dynamic modelling methods.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Economic Theory, Models, and Price Regression
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41905. Price Non-Convergence in Commodities: A Case Study of the Wheat Conundrum

Author:
Sophie van Huellen
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The close relationship between commodity future and cash prices is critical for the effectiveness of risk management and the functioning of price discovery. However, in recent years, commodity futures prices, across the board, have appeared increasingly detached from prices on physical markets. This paper argues that while various factors, identified in previous literature, which introduced limits to arbitrage have facilitated non-convergence, the actual extent of non-convergence in these markets is caused by essential differences in the mechanisms of price formation on physical and derivative markets. With reference to the particular case of the CBOT wheat market, the paper shows that the size of the spread between futures and cash prices can be theoretically and empirically linked to the increasing inflow of financial investment into commodity futures markets.
Topic:
Agriculture, Markets, Commodities, and Financialisation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41906. Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: An alternative Theoretical Framework

Author:
Bruno Bonizzi
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper represents a theoretical contribution to the analysis of international capital flows. It outlines an alternative theoretical framework based on Post-Keynesian monetary theory, and in particular on Hyman Minsky’s Wall Street paradigm and concept of Money-manager capitalism and Jan Toporowski’s theory of capital market inflation. The key aspects of such an approach are, firstly, that in a monetary analysis capital flows need to be understood as “flows of funds”, as opposed to the traditional understanding of capital flows based on “real” decision, such as saving and investment. A consequence of this is the need of focusing on gross rather than net capital flows. Secondly, when considering emerging markets, the asymmetric nature of the international monetary system must be stressed. Thirdly, it is important to understand the specific forms that capital flows take: in today’s world, pension funds and other institutional investors — alongside banks — are key players in the financial markets, and their role in shaping capital flows to emerging markets must be explicitly recognised. This paper synthesises these elements by understanding capital flows as the result of institutional investors portfolio choice. Along the lines of Minsky and Toporowski, portfolio choice by institutional investors need to be assessed in relation to their balance sheet structure, beside risk/return trade-offs and general state of risk aversion
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Capital Flows, Investment, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41907. After Qaddafi: Building Peace in Libya

Author:
Muzaffer Ercan Yilmaz
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
After the overthrown of Qaddafi, Libya has a historic opportunity to become a democratic country in the Western sense if peace building process is successfully completed in the country in the post-conflict period. This article aims to outline the basic steps of the peace building process, involving transitional justice, forming a representative government, strengthening security, making a new constitution, economic reconstruction, and national reconciliation, in that order. The study also emphasizes that since post-conflict situations usually require outside help due to institutional weaknesses, as well as limited human and financial resources, the assistance of the international community to Libya is crucial in the process of peace building.
Topic:
Civil War, Social Movement, Arab Spring, Peace, and State Building
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

41908. Viral Voices: Revolutionary Song, Social Media, and Youth Culture in the Arab Spring

Author:
Victor A. Vicente
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Focusing on three popular “anthems” of the Arab Revolutions (“Rais Lebled” by El Général, “#Jan25 Egypt” by Omar Offendum, and “Yalla Erhal Ya Bashar” by “Ibrahim Qashoush”) this article critically assesses the ways in which song has come to serve as a force for instigating socio-political and cultural change in the contemporary Arab World, particularly in Tunisia, Egypt, and Syria. The appeal and efficacy of these songs of the “Arab Spring,” as well as their characterization as “revolutionary,” are understood in aesthetic and technological terms. Hence, the article untangles a complex of interconnected, musically-related themes and issues at the core of the discourse on the recent uprisings; namely, those of self-expression and the power of the Arab youth “voice,” those of transitional dissemination via social media and information and communication technology, and those of documentation and representation through music, specifically through the genre of rap. Analysis of the songs and the themes surrounding them demonstrates substantive advancements in contemporary Arab musical, social, and political life, but also exposes serious shortcomings, naïve misconceptions, and willful exaggerations.
Topic:
Culture, Social Media, Arab Spring, Revolution, and Music
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Syria, Tunisia, and Egypt

41909. The Role of the Military in the Constitution-making Process as a part of Democratic Transition: The Comparative Cases of Turkey and Egypt

Author:
Merve Ince
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
The role of the military in the politics in the developing or socalled “Third World” countries has always been fundamental in order to comprehend the historical process of democratization movements in these countries. To be able to fully grasp the politics, particularly democratic transitions, in the Middle East, it is indispensable to look at the role of the military within the transition process. However, because the democratic transition processes involves different practices, in my research paper, I will focus on the role of military within the constitution-making processes in order to narrow down my research. I have chosen the constitution-making process because, as argued by Özbudun, constitution-making, especially during democratic transitions, is an excellent opportunity to build political institutions that will enjoy broad support from society and its political elites. Both the constitution-making process and its outcome are crucial aspects of the transition to and consolidation of democracy. In this regard, in this study, I have chosen to study Egypt and Turkey comparatively in terms of their military involvement in the constitution making process. It should be noted that in both Turkey and Egypt, previous constitutions were made directly by the military or under military influence through various means, which I will evaluate in my research paper in detailed way. I have chosen these two countries due to two reasons. My initial inspiration is derived from that currently, these two significant countries of the region are in the constitution-making process. When we look at current situation of Turkey, it can be argued that Turkey is in constitution-making process, which is supposed to be totally civilian without the influence of the military. On the other hand, in terms of Egypt, it is argued that following to the Arab Spring, Egypt’s new constitution will be the roadmap to a second republic that most Egyptians hope will be free from the tyranny, corruption, and nepotism, which were the trademarks of Egypt’s political life. The second reason is that despite the fact that Egypt and Turkey differ from each other in terms of longevity of their democratic experiences, the militaries of two countries demonstrate some core similarities, which is noteworthy in terms of comparing the two. Considering all of these, the aim of this study is to see how the military can be a part of the political system, especially in the making of constitution, and to understand the current situation and changing position of the militaries in these countries.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Democracy, State Building, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Turkey, Asia, and Egypt

41910. From Spring to Summer? Revolutionary Change in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya

Author:
Imad El-Anis and Ashraf Hamed
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
This article offers an analysis of the early stages of the revolutions that have been taking place in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Here we consider the early stages of the revolutions from winter 2010-11 up until the summer of 2012 and offers a comparative study of the experiences of the early stage of the revolutions in each case study. In particular this study considers the roles of six variables on the process of regime change and transition as follows: 1) duration of the uprising up to regime change; 2) the initial outcome of the revolution/uprising; 3) the number of deaths and casualties; 4) the postregime change status of key members of the former governing elite; 5) the existence and nature of post-regime change elections; and 6) levels of international involvement. This study finds that in all three case studies, considering these variables offers insight into the nature and effect of the early stages of the revolutions. Furthermore, in each case there are key similarities in some of these variables but significant differences in others which suggest that the processes of transition are not directly comparable with each other. This article also offers some thoughts on how the early stages of these revolutions could affect the direction and pace of change in each state.
Topic:
Regime Change, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Revolution
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia

41911. Fostering of Civil Society by Muslim Women’s NGO-s in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:
Muhidin Mulalic
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
The fostering of civil society is vital in multiethnic, multicultural, multi-religious and post-conflict societies such as that of BosniaHerzegovina. Therefore, this paper examines the role of Muslim women’s Non Government Organisations (NGOs) in fostering civil society in BosniaHerzegovina. In this regard, this paper puts in perspective the present role of Muslim women’s NGOs by providing the theoretical background and a survey of NGOs in Bosnia-Herzegovina. In order to determine the role and function of Muslim women’s NGOs, the author examines the main criteria of civil society functions such as control of political power, monitoring of political participation and elections, promoting anti-corruption awareness, advocating values of human rights, tolerance and understanding, offering civic training, promoting civic education and public issues through media, and promoting conflict resolution and inter-faith dialogue. By analyzing civil society functions this paper answers the question of Muslim women’s NGOs involvement in socio-political aspects of a democratic state and fostering of civil society in Bosnia-Herzegovina. The author uses an ethnographic methodology, written sources and interviews in analyzing two leading Muslim Women’s NGOs such as Nahla Education Center for Women and Kewser-Zehra Association of Muslim Women. The results of this paper indicate that although Muslim women’s NGOs in theory do not meet some of the criteria to be considered a civil society actor, especially those of a political and legal nature, they are, nonetheless, significantly involved through their various activities in sociopolitical aspects of the democratic state and, as such, they have contributed significantly towards fostering of civil society in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Topic:
Civil Society, Gender Issues, Religion, NGOs, and State Building
Political Geography:
Europe and Bosnia and Herzegovina

41912. From going between to working together: Learning from structures and attitudes in South Africa’s transition

Author:
Jannie Malan
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
In the old South Africa, with its inhabitants divided into two worlds by an ideology-driven white minority, H.W. van der Merwe was one of the first white Afrikaners who took the risk of crossing the boundary which in the culture of his own group was upheld as divinely ordained. On account of the radical change in his socio-political convictions, and his resulting research and teaching, he was appointed as director of an institution aiming at improving intergroup relations through applied research and educational programmes. He also took the lead in founding an association for conflict intervention. His remarkable contribution to the anti-apartheid struggle and the eventual resolving of the white-black conflict was not only a structural one, however, but also an interrelated attitudinal one. His outreaching understanding and his courageous quest for justice and peace enabled him to bring adversaries together, and also to confront the unflinching guardians of apartheid. It behoves us, therefore, to celebrate his example and to emulate it in our current context. We may be grateful for the degree to which transition has already taken shape in the new South Africa, but so much remains to be done to minimise socio-cultural distances between sectors of fellow-South Africans. H.W.’s legacy may indeed help us to respect ‘them’ and ‘us’ where appropriate, but also to promote an ‘all of us’ orientation as far as fellow-humanly possible.
Topic:
Apartheid, Transitional Justice, Social Cohesion, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

41913. Linking poverty and violence: The South African scenario

Author:
Ampie Muller
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
In present-day South Africa we are daily confronted with individual or group scenes of violence in townships and ‘shanty-towns’ where people live in poverty. Frequently, it involves people clamouring for the redemption of the promises made to them by politicians prior to the first democratic election in 1994 – promises of a wonderful ‘new South Africa’ that would meet their needs. In reality, their common experience is of a housing shortage, poor education, few jobs and very little prospect of alleviating their profound poverty. It seems as if in our country violence has become the power of the powerless. It would, of course, be entirely misleading to give the impression that violence is a phenomenon created by the ‘New South Africa’, for under the previous government we experienced violence on an enormous scale, in particular state-sponsored violence, and structural violence. But it was not accompanied with promises that this would become better. At present it is this gap between the ‘promised land’ and harsh reality that to a large extent seems to fuel the violence. This article will explore the possible and potential links between poverty and violence, in order to gain deeper insight into their intrinsic meaning and the circularity of linkage between the two.
Topic:
Poverty, Sociology, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

41914. Violence as a form of communication: Making sense of violence in South Africa

Author:
Hugo van der Merwe
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This article explores the meaning of violence in South African society against the backdrop of its violent past. Using a perspective suggested by H.W. van de Merwe* and Sue Williams in an article in 1987 – understanding violence as a form of communication – the article seeks to analyse how the persistence and scale of violence can be understood as a legacy of our past. This approach can also help foster spaces for more constructive engagement with those who resort to violence in the face of the society’s failure to provide effective channels for more constructive communication.
Topic:
Apartheid, Poverty, Communications, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

41915. Mediation and conflict resolution in South and Southern Africa: A personal account of the past 30 years

Author:
Charles Nupen
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This article is a personal account of my involvement with mediation and facilitation over the past 30 years. It does not purport to be a comprehensive or systematic account of the growing impact of these processes both in preventing and resolving conflict in our country and beyond. It therefore does not focus on organisations outside my own spheres of involvement, like the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes and the Centre for Conflict Resolution, whose important contributions I readily acknowledge. The insights and experiences reflected in the piece nevertheless point to an ever widening application of the processes across a range of disciplines and tell something of the rich contribution they have made to making South Africa a better, and safer, place.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Memoir, and Mediation
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

41916. Public participation as participatory conflict resolution: Shortcomings and best practices at the local level in South Africa

Author:
Sifiso Mbuyisa
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
In South Africa the constitutional order brought about by the transition to democracy, and the subsequent policy and legislation frameworks, have enabled ordinary people to participate in governance and policy making. Yet, according to some studies, the importance of participation – agreed to by politicians, practised and promoted by academics – has yet to be translated into a lived reality at the local level. In this paper, I write about the debates on participation, its advantages, and disadvantages. This paper offers an additional resource to public participation practitioners and beneficiaries, aiding them in the use of negotiation, mediation, and generic conflict resolution approaches to resolve public participation stalemates, and in the process, to strengthen and legitimise those public participation processes. Drawing on the existing literature, I describe what works and why; I also point out the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches. Ultimately, the objective is to share the complementary nature of conflict resolution and public participation, and show how – if they are combined effectively – public participation can be enhanced. While I strongly believe that the literature supports my contention that conflict resolution principles and practices are useful for fair and equitable public participation, I do not have authoritative empirical evidence to state this as fact. Nonetheless, I believe that the ‘best practices’ outlined in the paper are useful and valuable tools and should be implemented as far as possible.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Apartheid, Democracy, Ethnicity, Conflict, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

41917. The mediator’s moral dilemma: An essay in memory of H.W. van der Merwe

Author:
Andries Odendaal
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
‘Today, with a democratic government in place, it is hard to remember how unpopular concepts such as negotiation and conflict resolution were even a decade ago.’ H.W. van der Merwe, who wrote this in 2000 (110), was referring to the situation during the 1970s and 1980s in South Africa. The then South African government and the liberation movements both shared a common distrust of ‘mediators’ or peacemakers. The government had banned the liberation movements. Establishing contact or facilitating dialogue with these movements was not only illegal, it was treason. The liberation movements similarly rejected peacemaking. The reigning slogan was ‘justice before peace’; and the dominant strategy non-collaboration and armed struggle. Would-be peacemakers, in their opinion, diluted their resolve to achieve victory. Possibly his greatest contribution to the field of mediation1 in South Africa was the manner in which H.W. van der Merwe established, in the face of this huge distaste for mediation, its validity and integrity. He was Director of the Centre for Intergroup Studies at the University of Cape Town from 1968 to 1992, the period in South African history when the struggle for the liberation of the black people of South Africa from colonialism and apartheid reached its climax. Under his leadership the Centre played a pioneering role not only in using, but justifying dialogue, facilitation and mediation as mechanisms to address the conflict. A trained sociologist, Van der Merwe rooted his case for mediation not only in sociological and political theory, but also in religious thought and practice. The latter was important because, at the time, the debate was as theological as it was political.
Topic:
Apartheid, Democracy, Mediation, Morality, and Quakers
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

41918. A just peace agreement, or just a peace agreement: Reflections on the work of H.W. van der Merwe

Author:
Vasu Gounden
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
H.W. van der Merwe can be considered one of the founding fathers of the conflict resolution field in South Africa. His role will always be that of the ‘unsung hero’. True to his Quaker religious background, he did not publicise his efforts to build reconciliation across the apartheid divide in South Africa, and the quiet dialogue he fostered between Afrikaners in South Africa and the then exiled African National Congress (ANC). I first met him in 1990 in Washington, D.C., where I was immediately moved by this quiet but passionate man. I then had the opportunity to work with him in 1991 and to learn about and debate his many well-developed ideas surrounding peace and justice. The relationship between peace and justice, both in the pursuit of peace agreements and more broadly in terms of fundamental questions about society, has long been a subject of rigorous academic and practical debate, one in which Professor Van der Merwe made landmark contributions. This debate is founded upon two specific dimensions: the interpretation of the relationship between peace and justice, and the interpretation of a mediator’s mandate in pursuing specific goals of peace and justice.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Peace, and African National Congress
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

41919. ‘Sowing, cultivating, harvesting and spreading the seeds of peace’: In honour of H.W. van der Merwe

Author:
Valerie Dovey
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This is a personal narrative. As it unfolds, I weave in some qualities that I believe characterised H.W. van der Merwe and his work as a pioneer in the development of peace studies and conflict resolution in South Africa. It is also a reflection on my association with H.W. and the influence this association has had on my own amazing journey in the field of peace education and conflict resolution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Memoir, Mediation, and Narrative
Political Geography:
Africa

41920. Black Money Whitening Law: A Study From Bangladesh

Author:
Attiya Waris and Abdul Latif
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Tax avoidance and evasion are deeply entrenched in Bangladesh, where 37% of GDP comes from ‘black money’. In this country of massive tax evasion, black money is not seen as tax evasion. Instead, tax amnesties are offered to whiten black money in an attempt to raise funds that revenue collectors would otherwise have found difficult or impossible to capture. The evidence on which this policy brief builds was obtained through field research, interviews in particular.
Topic:
Economics, Tax Systems, Money, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

41921. The Ceasefire Drafter's Handbook: An Introduction and Template for Negotiators, Mediators, and Stakeholders

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
The Public International Law & Policy Group’s (PILPG) Ceasefire Drafter’s Handbook is a guide intended to effectively supplement the activities of negotiators and drafters of ceasefire agreements. This Handbook draws from PILPG’s experience in ceasefire negotiations, as well as state practice and comparative analysis of over 200 ceasefire agreements from Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. As part of the ceasefires practice area, PILPG also provides negotiation simulations, strategic memoranda, training modules, and negotiation and drafting assistance to pro bono clients. For more information about PILPG’s ceasefires work, please visit www.pilpg.org. This Handbook includes an Introduction to Ceasefires and an Annotated Ceasefire Template. The Introduction to Ceasefires provides information on the core elements of ceasefires, the effects of asymmetry on ceasefire agreements, the role of third parties, and the legality of ceasefire agreements. The Annotated Ceasefire Template describes core provisions and provides sample language for drafters to incorporate into ceasefire agreements. Although each template section offers drafters a guiding framework, it may be necessary to reshape the provisions to address the nuances of each situation. This Handbook’s comparative provisions and sample language are included to provide options from existing ceasefires to assist the drafter. A full-text database of all the agreements cited in the footnotes can be found on PILPG’s ceasefire database at www.pilpg.org/ceasefire-database/. There are three Annexes to the handbook. Annex A provides a map of geographic ceasefire elements, Annex B provides a sample chart of assembly areas, and Annex C provides a sample timeline of implementation activities.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, Negotiation, Peace, and Ceasefire
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41922. Oil and Mining Countries: Transparency Low, Official Impunity High - 2013

Author:
E. Gyimah-Boadi, Daniel Armah-Attoh, Mohammed Awal, and Joseph Luna
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Twenty-two of 34 African countries surveyed by Afrobarometer stake their countries' economic futures on development of mineral or oil production, but successful shepherding of these natural resources hinges on governments’ ability to manage them while maintaining stable democracies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Oil, Natural Resources, Democracy, and Mining
Political Geography:
Africa

41923. What People Want from Government: Basic Services Performance Ratings, 34 Countries

Author:
Joseph Asunka
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Across 34 African countries , people's ratings of government performance in providing basic services -- water, sanitation and electricity -- are poor and declining. Ratings for health and education are somewhat better, but also declining. Furthermore, large numbers identify serious shortcomings in these services. Ratings on the handling of HIV and AIDS are exceptions: absolute majorities approve of governments' performances.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, Health Care Policy, Leadership, and Social Services
Political Geography:
Africa

41924. Governments Falter in Fight to Curb Corruption

Author:
Samantha Richmond and Carmen Alpin
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
A majority of people in 34 African countries condemn their governments' anticorruption efforts, according to Afrobarometer surveys of more than 51,000 people between October 2011 and June 2013. Fifty-six percent of people said their governments have done a "fairly” or “very bad" job of fighting corruption; while just 35% say their governments have done this "fairly” or “very well". For the 16 countries surveyed since 2002, negative ratings have increased from 46% to 54% with only five countries showing a decline in these negative ratings over the last decade.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Leadership, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Africa

41925. The Partnership of Free Speech and Good Governance in Africa

Author:
Winnie Mitullah and Paul Kamau
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Freedom of speech is not just valuable as a democratic end in itself. It is strongly linked to popular perceptions of both media effectiveness and good governance, according to new data from Afrobarometer, collected during face-to-face interviews with 51,605 people in 34 countries during 2011-13 . People who indicate they are free to say what they think also report higher levels of trust in their leaders, lower levels of corruption, and better government performance – especially greater success in fighting corruption. Greater freedom of expression is also linked to mass media that are more effective in keeping a watchful eye on government.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Democracy, Media, Freedom of Expression, and Freedom
Political Geography:
Africa

41926. After a Decade of Growth in Africa, Little Change in Poverty at the Grassroots

Author:
Boniface Dulani, Robert Mattes, and Carolyn Logan
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
New data from Round 5 of the Afrobarometer, collected across an unprecedented 34 African countries between October 2011 and June 2013, demonstrates that “lived poverty” remains pervasive across the continent. This data, based on the views and experiences of ordinary citizens, counters projections of declining poverty rates that have been derived from official GDP growth rates. For the 16 countries where these questions have been asked over the past decade, we find little evidence for systematic reduction of lived poverty despite average GDP growth rates of 4.8% per year over the same period. While we do see reductions in five countries (Cape Verde, Ghana, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe), we also find increases in lived poverty in five others (Botswana, Mali, Senegal, South Africa and Tanzania). Overall, then, despite high reported growth rates, lived poverty at the grassroots remains little changed. This suggests either that growth is occurring, but that its effects are not trickling down to the poorest citizens (in fact, income inequality may be worsening), or alternatively, that actual growth rates may not match up to those being reported. The evidence also suggests, however, that investments in infrastructure and social services are strongly linked with lower levels of lived poverty.
Topic:
Poverty, Inequality, Economic Growth, and Social Services
Political Geography:
Africa

41927. Eyes Wide Shut: Counter-Narcotics in Transition

Author:
David Mansfield and Paul Fishstein
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
It is now clear that the production and trade of opiates will have a significant influence on not only the economic, political and security landscape, but even the physical terrain of post-Transition Afghanistan. Levels of opium poppy cultivation are already rising; estimated cultivated area rose by 18 percent in 2012 and is likely to rise significantly over the next few years. And this trend may intensify further as politico-military actors make deals and form coalitions in response to the 2014 handover of security responsibility from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF).
Topic:
NATO, International Cooperation, Drugs, Trade, and Illegal Trade
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

41928. To pay or Not to Pay? Citizens’ Attitudes towards Taxation in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and South Africa

Author:
Merima Ali, Odd Helge Fjeldstad, and Ingrid Hoem Sjursen
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
This paper examines factors that determine citizens’ tax-compliance attitude in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and South Africa. Using the 2011/12 Afrobarometer survey data, we find that tax-compliance attitude is positively correlated with the provision of public services in the four countries. However, the correlation depends on the specific service in question and differs between countries. Tax knowledge and awareness are found to be positively correlated with tax-compliance attitude. On the other hand, frequent payment to non-state actors in exchange for security and individual’s perception that their own ethnic group is treated unfairly by the government are negatively correlated with tax-compliance attitude.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Citizenship, Tax Systems, and Social Services
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, South Africa, and Tanzania

41929. Green Transformation towards Sustainable Development?

Author:
Lisa-Marie Althaus
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Both the concept of sustainable development (SD) and the new green transformation concepts (GTC) aim for the integration of environmental protection and development. Previous comparative research on these GTC is not based on theoretically founded crite- ria that are related to the established development paradigm of SD. The study closes this research gap by providing a conceptual comparison of different GTC versions as pub- lished by UNEP, the OECD, and the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). The analysis reveals that GTC concepts are indeed based on central goals and principles of SD. Unlike the concept of SD, the GTC acknowledges planetary boundaries as limits to growth. However, the more economy-focused concepts of UNEP and the OECD do not only disregard important social goals but also concerns of intergenerational equity and the globality principle of SD. In contrast, the WBGU focuses on civil society participation and both intra- and intergenerational equity by aiming for decisive institu- tional changes. It is shown that this GTC partly extends beyond the scope of SD and thus could mark an important step with regard to the further development of the concept.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Green Technology, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41930. India's Aspirations in Global Politics

Author:
Herbert Wulf
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
India is an emerging power and its influence as well as the government’s aspirations in global politics has steadily been growing in recent years. The economy has experienced impressive growth but India’s political, social and economic development has neither been coherent nor smooth and millions of Indians still suffer from inequalities and poverty. The study looks at recent developments in India’s global aspirations, at the history of India’s foreign policy—with its shifts and changes—and at the ideological foundations of these different foreign affairs notions, namely idealism, realism and geopolitics, Hindu nationalism and the now predominant liberalisation and internationalisation concepts. In this report, the debate in India is reconstructed against the background of existing international relations theories. India has a great, but still largely untapped soft power potential and the capacity of integrating tradition and modernity, resulting in the creation of resilient institutions, a functioning federalism and an interesting amorphous character of the society with an aptitude for vagueness and improvisation to make things work. The report arrives at the conclusion that the Indian government is trying to play a greater role in global rule-making but does not want to change these rules fundamentally; it rather wants to enhance its status within the existing nation state oriented global governance system.
Topic:
Governance, Hegemony, State Building, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:
India and Asia

41931. A (Mis)alignment of Governance Structure

Author:
Marie-Luise Mubenbrock
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Improving the quality of water services is vital in many developing countries. In order to ad- dress the issue, many of them launched a series of reforms of which a major element was the involvement of the private sector. However, private sector participation (PSP) did not prove to be a general panacea. In some cases it has led to improved water service quality, such as in- creased access and reduced water losses. In other cases it has resulted in deteriorated perfor- mance, including high tariffs and potentially negative impacts on health and the environment. The question is under which circumstances PSP can positively or negatively impact on the pro- vision of water services. This INEF Report analyses the varying performance of the two water concessions in Metro Manila through the lens of the theory of Transaction Cost Economics (TCE). It shows that a misalignment of governance structures (organisational constructs) ac- cording to the level of transaction costs leads to worse water service provision.
Topic:
Environment, Water, Governance, Political structure, Social Services, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

41932. Crisis and Calm: Demand for U.S. Currency at Home and Abroad From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to 2011

Author:
Ruth Judson
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
U.S. currency has long been a desirable store of value and medium of exchange in times and places where local currency or bank deposits are inferior in one or more respects. Indeed, as noted in earlier work, a substantial share of U.S. currency circulates outside the United States. Although precise measurements of stocks and flows of U.S. currency outside the United States are not available, a variety of data sources and methods have been developed to provide estimates. This paper reviews the raw data available for measuring international banknote flows and presents updates on indirect methods of estimating the stock of currency held abroad: the seasonal method and the biometric method. These methods require some adjustments, but they continue to indicate that a large share of U.S. currency is held abroad, especially in the $100 denomination. In addition to these existing indirect methods, I develop a framework and basic variants of a new method to estimate the share of U.S. currency held abroad. Although the methods and estimates are disparate, they provide support for several hypotheses regarding cross-border dollar stocks and flows. First, once a country or region begins using dollars, subsequent crises result in additional inflows: the dominant sources of international demand over the past decade and a half are the countries and regions that were known to be heavy dollar users in the early to mid-1990s. Second, economic stabilization and modernization appear to result in reversal of these inflows. Specifically, demand for U.S. currency was extremely strong through the 1990s, a period of turmoil for the former Soviet Union and for Argentina, two of the largest overseas users of U.S. currency. Demand eased in the early 2000s as conditions gradually stabilized and as financial institutions developed. However, this trend reversed sharply with the onset of the financial crisis in late 2008 and has continued since then.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Currency, Banking, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

41933. Challenges for the Future of Chinese Economic Growth

Author:
Jane T. Haltmaier
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Chinese economy has been growing at a rapid pace for over thirty years. Most of this growth has come from higher labor productivity, while growth of employment has diminished along with a slower rate of increase in the working-age population. This paper looks at the challenges that China will face over the next two decades in maintaining its rapid pace of economic growth, especially as working-age population growth slows further and then begins to decline. Key questions include whether China will be able to continue to devote nearly half of its GDP to investment, whether such investment will become less productive as the capital-labor ratio continues to rise, whether labor participation and employment rates will fall as the population becomes less rural, and whether future shifts out of rural employment will go more toward the services rather than the manufacturing sector, where productivity is higher. In the baseline scenario economic growth falls gradually from its current pace of about 10 percent to near 6-1/2 percent by 2030. However, a combination of less optimistic, but still reasonable assumptions, results in a reduction in the growth rate to about 1-1/2 percent by 2030.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, GDP, Employment, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
China and Asia

41934. A Theory of Rollover Risk, Sudden Stops, and Foreign Reserves

Author:
Sewon Hur and Illenin O. Kondo
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Emerging economies, unlike advanced economies, have accumulated large foreign reserve holdings. We argue that this policy is an optimal response to an increase in foreign debt rollover risk. In our model, reserves play a key role in reducing debt rollover crises ("sudden stops"), akin to the role of bank reserves in preventing bank runs. We find that a small, unexpected, and permanent increase in rollover risk accounts for the outburst of sudden stops in the late 1990s, the subsequent increase in foreign reserves holdings, and the salient resilience of emerging economies to sudden stops ever since. Finally, we show that a policy of pooling reserves can substantially reduce the reserves needed by emerging economies.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Risk, and Foreign Reserves
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41935. The Cyclicality of Job-to-Job Transitions and Its Implications for Aggregate Productivity

Author:
Toshihiko Mukoyama
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the job-to-job transitions of workers in the United States. I propose a new method of correcting the time-aggregation bias. The bias-corrected series from 1996 to 2011 reveals a procyclical pattern of job-to-job transition and a large decline since the beginning of the 2000s. I construct a model of on-the-job search and explore the implications of this phenomenon. The calibrated model shows that the decline in the reallocation of workers through job-to-job transitions has had a substantial effect on total factor productivity (TFP). From 2009 to 2011, the model accounts for about 0.5%-0.7% annual decline in TFP.
Topic:
Employment, Job Creation, Labor Market, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41936. Asymmetric Information and the Death of ABS CDOs

Author:
Daniel O. Beltran, Larry Cordell, and Charles Thomas
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
A key feature of the 2007 financial crisis is that for some classes of securities trade has practically ceased. And where trade has occurred, it appears that market prices are well below their intrinsic values. This seems especially true for those securities where the payoff streams are particularly complex, for example, structured finance ABS CDOs. One explanation for this is that information about these securities' intrinsic values since the crisis has been asymmetric, with current holders having better information than potential buyers. We first characterize the information asymmetries that were present in the structured finance ABS CDO market. Because many of the CDO dealers had partially or fully integrated the pipeline from mortgage originations through CDO issuance, they had informational advantages over potential buyers that could well have disrupted trading in CDOs as the crisis took hold in August of 2007. Using a "workhorse" model for pricing securities under asymmetric information and a novel dataset for the intrinsic values of ABS CDOs, we show how the resulting adverse selection problem could explain why the bulk of these securities either trade at significant discounts to their intrinsic values or do not trade at all.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Financial Crisis, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41937. Revenge of the Steamroller: ABCP as a Window on Risk Choices

Author:
Carlos Ó. Arteta, Mark Carey, Ricardo Correa, and Jason Kotter
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We empirically examine financial institutions' motivations to take systematic bad-tail risk in the form of sponsorship of credit-arbitrage asset-backed commercial paper vehicles. A run on debt issued by such vehicles played a key role in causing and propagating the liquidity crisis that began in the summer of 2007. We find evidence consistent with important roles for both owner-manager agency problems and government-induced distortions, especially government control or ownership of banks.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Risk, Banking, and Commercialization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41938. On Returns Differentials

Author:
Stephanie E. Curcuru, Charles Thomas, and Francis E. Warnock
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Estimates of U.S. returns differentials have ranged from exorbitant to quite small, in part because of their volatility coupled with the relatively short time series available. We shed light on underlying drivers of returns differentials by presenting a number of decompositions: a by-asset-class decomposition into yields and capital gains, the Gourinchas and Rey (2007a) composition and return effects, and further decompositions of capital gains that focus on exchange rate effects. While each decomposition informs thinking about returns differentials, one constant is evident throughout: to date the existing differential favoring the U.S. has owed primarily to one factor, a differential in direct investment yields. We discuss how our analysis informs the income puzzle (of positive net income flows to the U.S. even as its net international investment position is negative and substantial) and the position puzzle (of a sizeable gap between the reported U.S. net international position and cumulated current account deficits), provide an initial assessment of the literature on the dynamics of returns differentials, and present a framework to guide a forward-looking view of how returns differentials might evolve in the future.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Markets, Investment, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

41939. A Robust Neighborhood Truncation Approach to Estimation of Integrated Quarticity

Author:
Torben G. Andersen, Dobrislav Dobrev, and Ernst Schaumburg
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We provide a first in-depth look at robust estimation of integrated quarticity (IQ) based on high frequency data. IQ is the key ingredient enabling inference about volatility and the presence of jumps in financial time series and is thus of considerable interest in applications. We document the significant empirical challenges for IQ estimation posed by commonly encountered data imperfections and set forth three complementary approaches for improving IQ based inference. First, we show that many common deviations from the jump diffusive null can be dealt with by a novel filtering scheme that generalizes truncation of individual returns to truncation of arbitrary functionals on return blocks. Second, we propose a new family of efficient robust neighborhood truncation (RNT) estimators for integrated power variation based on order statistics of a set of unbiased local power variation estimators on a block of returns. Third, we find that ratio-based inference, originally proposed in this context by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2002), has desirable robustness properties in the face of regularly occurring data imperfections and thus is well suited for empirical applications. We confirm that the proposed filtering scheme and the RNT estimators perform well in our extensive simulation designs and in an application to the individual Dow Jones 30 stocks.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Models, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41940. Taxation, Match Quality and Social Welfare

Author:
Brendan Epstein and Ryan Nunn
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
A large public finance literature argues that taxable income elasticities are a sufficient statistic for the social welfare consequences of taxation. We develop calibrations that show such deadweight loss calculations are overestimates proportional to the quantitative significance of heterogeneity in amenities across job matches. In particular, the endogenous supply of amenities can substantially exacerbate this overestimation in both static and dynamic environments. Given the possibility of gradual migration of workers into more amenity-focused job matches in response to tax increases, welfare calculations based on long-run taxable income elasticities can be more misleading than those based on short-run elasticities.
Topic:
Governance, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, Welfare, and Social Services
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41941. Do Central Banks' Forecasts Take Into Account Public Opinion and Views?

Author:
Ricardo Nunes
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Federal Reserve through the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regularly releases macroeconomic forecasts to the general public and the US congress with the purpose of explaining the likely evolution of the economy and the appropriate stance of monetary policy. Immediately before doing so, the FOMC receives a forecast produced by the Federal Reserve staff which remains private for five years. The literature has pointed out that, despite the informational advantage of the FOMC, its forecast differs from and is not always more accurate than the staff forecast. This finding has raised concerns regarding the loss of relevant information and the usefulness of the FOMC forecasts. This paper brings evidence that the FOMC forecast also incorporates other publicly available forecasts and views, and that the weight attributed to public forecasts is larger than what is optimal given a mean squared error objective. These findings are consistent with i) the institutional role of the FOMC in being representative of a variety of public views, ii) the academic literature recommendation to use equal weights and not to overfit specific forecasts based on past performance. The statistical model can also account for several empirical regularities of the forecasts.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Governance, and Banking
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

41942. Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies: A Brave New World?

Author:
Shaghil Ahmed and Andrei Zlate
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We examine the determinants of net private capital inflows to emerging market economies. These inflows are computed from quarterly balance-of-payments data from 2002:Q1 to 2012:Q2. Our main findings are: First, growth and interest rate differentials between EMEs and advanced economies and global risk appetite are statistically and economically important determinants of net private capital inflows. Second, there have been significant changes in the behavior of net inflows from the period before the recent global financial crisis to the post-crisis period, especially for portfolio inflows, partly explained by the greater sensitivity of such .flows to interest rate differentials and risk aversion. Third, capital control measures introduced in recent years do appear to have discouraged both total and portfolio inflows. Fourth, in the pre-crisis period, there is some evidence that greater foreign exchange intervention to curb currency appreciation pressures brought more capital inflows down the line, but we cannot identify such an effect in the post-crisis period. Finally, we do not find statistically significant positive effects of unconventional U.S. monetary expansion on total net EME inflows, although there does seem to be a change in composition toward portfolio flows. Even for portfolio flows, U.S. unconventional policy is only one among several important factors.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Interest Rates, and Capital
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

41943. Collateral Constraints and Macroeconomic Asymmetries

Author:
Luca Guerrieri and Matteo Iacoviello
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a nonlinear general equilibrium model where occasionally binding collateral constraints on housing wealth drive an asymmetry in the link between housing prices and economic activity. The estimated model shows that, as collateral constraints became slack during the housing boom of 2001-2006, expanding housing wealth made a small contribution to consumption growth. By contrast, the housing collapse that followed tightened the constraints and sharply exacerbated the recession of 2007-2009. The empirical relevance of this asymmetry is corroborated by evidence from state- and MSA-level data.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, and Housing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41944. The Systemic Risk of European Banks

Author:
Lamont Black, Ricardo Correa, Xu Huang, and Hao Zhou
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We propose a hypothetical distress insurance premium (DIP) as a measure of the European banking systemic risk, which integrates the characteristics of bank size, default probability, and interconnectedness. Based on this measure, the systemic risk of European banks reached its height in late 2011 around E 500 billion. We find that the sovereign default spread is the factor driving this heightened risk in the banking sector during the European debt crisis. The methodology can also be used to identify the individual contributions of over 50 major European banks to the systemic risk measure. This approach captures the large contribution of a number of systemically important European banks, but Italian and Spanish banks as a group have notably increased their systemic importance. We also find that bank-specific fundamentals predict the one-year-ahead systemic risk contribution of our sample of banks in an economically meaningful way.
Topic:
Debt, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Regulation, Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Banking
Political Geography:
Europe

41945. Say on Pay Laws, Executive Compensation, CEO Pay Slice, and Firm Value Around the World

Author:
Ricardo Correa and Uger Lel
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Using a sample of about 90,000 observations from 38 countries over the 2001-2012 period, we provide three novel findings regarding say on pay (SoP) laws. First, we find robust evidence that SoP laws reduce CEO pay growth rates at firms. Second, such laws decrease the portion of total top management pay captured by CEOs. Firm values are higher following SoP laws in part because of this reduction in managerial pay inequality. Third, mandatory SoP laws only affect the CEO pay growth rates whereas advisory SoP laws influence various aspects of executive pay policies. These results are robust to instrumental variable estimation and nearest neighbor matching methods.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Inequality, Leadership, and Business
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41946. Global Financial Conditions, Country Spreads and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Countries

Author:
Ozge Akinci
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. The main findings are: (1) Global financial risk shocks explain about 20 percent of movements both in the country spread and in the aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) The contribution of global risk-free interest rate shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies is negligible. Its role, which was emphasized in the literature, is taken up by global financial risk shocks. (3) Country spread shocks explain about 15 percent of the business cycles in emerging economies. (4) Interdependence between economic activity and the country spread is a key mechanism through which global financial shocks are transmitted to emerging economies.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, International Cooperation, Financial Crisis, and Global Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41947. International Evidence on Government Support and Risk Taking in the Banking Sector

Author:
Luis Brandao-Marques, Ricardo Correa, and Horacio Sapriza
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Government support to banks through the provision of explicit or implicit guarantees affects the willingness of banks to take on risk by reducing market discipline or by increasing charter value. We use an international sample of rated banks and find that government support is associated with more risk taking by banks, especially prior and during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. We also find that restricting banks range of activities ameliorates the link between government support and bank risk taking. We conclude that strengthening market discipline by reducing bank complexity is needed to address this moral hazard problem.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Risk, and Banking
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

41948. Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations

Author:
George Alessandria and Sangeta Pratap
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We study the source and consequences of sluggish export dynamics in emerging markets following large devaluations. We document two main features of exports that are puzzling for standard trade models. First, given the change in relative prices, exports tend to grow gradually following a devaluation. Second, high interest rates tend to suppress exports. To address these features of export dynamics, we embed a model of endogenous export participation due to sunk and per period export costs into an otherwise standard small open economy. In response to shocks to productivity, the interest rate, and the discount factor, we find the model can capture the salient features of export dynamics documented. At the aggregate level, the features giving rise to sluggish exports lead to more gradual net export reversals, sharper contractions and recoveries in output, and endogenous stagnation in labor productivity.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Exports
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41949. "Fool Me Once . . . " Did U.S. Investors Play it Safer in the European Debt Crisis?

Author:
Carol C. Bertaut, Fang Cai, and Nyssa Kim
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines U.S. investors' portfolio investment patterns since the global financial crisis, particularly since the European debt crisis that began in late 2009. The global financial crisis during 2007-2009 was accompanied by an increase in U.S. investors' home bias. U.S. investors experienced significant valuation losses and pulled back notably from their foreign investment, especially from foreign debt. In contrast, while they have also incurred sizable losses on cross-border investment during the European debt crisis, U.S. investors so far have not shown any increase in home bias, and they have not even pulled back from their long-term investments in Europe. Holdings data show that U.S. investors have continued to invest in European securities, particularly in government debt, but have made little new investment in the financial sector. This continued interest in European securities could owe to the fact that most of U.S. holdings of European debt have been concentrated in dollar-denominated debt issued by core euro area countries and the United Kingdom, which are deemed relatively safe. Changes in the composition of holdings over the past couple years suggest that U.S. investors have behaved in a way that reflects their diversity and differing objectives: while investors reached for higher yields in government debt, there also appears to be some shift toward safer investment in the financial sector.
Topic:
Debt, Financial Crisis, Investment, Securities, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

41950. Unemployment and Business Cycles

Author:
Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, and Mathias Trabandt
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We develop and estimate a general equilibrium model that accounts for key business cycle properties of macroeconomic aggregates, including labor market variables. In sharp contrast to leading New Keynesian models, wages are not subject to exogenous nominal rigidities. Instead we derive wage inertia from our specification of how firms and workers interact when negotiating wages. Our model outperforms the standard Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model both statistically and in terms of the plausibility of the estimated structural parameter values. Our model also outperforms an estimated sticky wage model.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Business, Economic Theory, Unemployment, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41951. Interest Rate Swaps and Corporate Default

Author:
Urban J. Jermann and Vivian Zhanwei Yue
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper studies firms' usage of interest rate swaps to manage risk in a model economy driven by aggregate productivity shocks, inflation shocks, and counter-cyclical idiosyncratic productivity risk. Consistent with empirical evidence, firms in the model are fixed-rate payers, and swap positions are negatively correlated with the term spread. In the model, swaps affect firms' investment decisions and debt pricing very moderately, and the availability of swaps generates only small economic gains for the typical firm.
Topic:
Debt, Business, Interest Rates, Risk, and Corporate Governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41952. Portfolio Diversification and the Cross-Sectional Distribution of Foreign Investment

Author:
Alexandra Tabova
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In this paper I explore the role of portfolio diversification in explaining the distribution of foreign investment across countries. I capture the portfolio diversification motive by a measure of country-specific riskiness, "covariance risk", which I construct as how countries' growth rates covary with the stochastic discount factor of a representative international investor. My key new empirical finding is a strong and significant correlation between this new measure of country riskiness and foreign investment allocations. Less risky countries, i.e. countries whose growth rates are more highly correlated with the investor's stochastic discount factor, receive larger investment shares than more risky countries. I interpret this result as evidence that investors do take into account diversification opportunities, not only for portfolio investment decisions, but also for foreign direct investment decisions. My empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions of standard portfolio allocation models.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Investment, Risk, Fiscal Policy, Securities, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41953. Can Structural Reforms Help Europe?

Author:
Gauti Eggertsson, Andrea Ferrero, and Andrea Raffo
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Structural reforms that increase competition in product and labor markets are often indicated as the main policy option available for peripheral Europe to regain competitiveness and boost output. We show that, in a crisis that pushes the nominal interest rate to its lower bound, these reforms do not support economic activity in the short run, and may well be contractionary. Absent the appropriate monetary stimulus, reforms fuel expectations of prolonged deflation, increase the real interest rate, and depress aggregate demand. Our findings carry important implications for the current debate on the timing and the design of structural reforms in Europe.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, Economic structure, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Europe

41954. Local Currency Sovereign Risk

Author:
Wenxin Du and Jesse Schreger
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Do governments default on debt denominated in their own currency? We introduce a new measure of sovereign credit risk, the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross currency swaps. We find that local currency credit spreads are positive and sizable. Compared with credit spreads on foreign currency denominated debt, local currency credit spreads have lower means, lower cross-country correlations, and are less sensitive to global risk factors. Global risk aversion and liquidity factors can explain more time variation in these credit spread differentials than macroeconomic fundamentals.
Topic:
Debt, Sovereignty, Currency, and Credit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41955. Trade Reforms, Foreign Competition, and Labor Market Adjustments in the U.S.

Author:
Illenin O. Kondo
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Using data on trade-induced displacements, this paper documents that locations facing more foreign competition in the U.S. have: higher job destruction rates, lower job creation rates, and thereby lower employment rates. In contrast to standard trade theory, a model with variable markups and heterogeneous segmented labor markets is consistent with these facts. Foreign competition has a correlated effect on job destruction and job creation precisely because the most vulnerable locations also have lower productivity. Following an unexpected trade liberalization with limited mobility, employment sharply falls in the worse hit locations while welfare and employment increase in the aggregate.
Topic:
Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Reform, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

41956. Do Small Businesses Still Prefer Community Banks?

Author:
Allen N. Berger, William Goulding, and Tara Rice
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We formulate and test hypotheses about the role of bank type small versus large, single-market versus multimarket, and local versus nonlocal banks in banking relationships. The conventional paradigm suggests that "community banks" small, single market, local institutions are better able to form strong relationships with informationally opaque small businesses, while "megabanks" large, multimarket, nonlocal institutions tend to serve more transparent firms. Using the 2003 Survey of Small Business Finance (SSBF), we conduct two sets of tests. First, we test for the type of bank serving as the "main" relationship bank for small businesses with different firm and owner characteristics. Second, we test for the strength of these main relationships by examining the probability of multiple relationships and relationship length as functions of main bank type and financial fragility, as well as firm and owner characteristics. The results are often not consistent with the conventional paradigm, perhaps because of changes in lending technologies and deregulation of the banking industry.
Topic:
Business, Banks, Local, and Community
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

41957. Argentina’s Race to the Bottom

Author:
Robert F. Noriega and José R. Cárdenas
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Argentina is the poster child for economic dysfunction in the Americas and stands as a cautionary tale of the perils of populist economics. The International Monetary Fund’s recent unprecedented censure of the Argentine government for cooking inflation figures is only the latest installment in a long fall from grace for what was once one of the world’s most productive economies. Moreover, under the presidencies of Néstor and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Argentina has alienated traditional allies such as the United States while reorienting its foreign relations toward radical outliers like Venezuela and Iran. US policymakers must continue to hold Argentina accountable for its failures to abide by its obligations to international financial institutions and work to thwart Argentina’s troubling alliances with rogue governments.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Monetary Fund, and Populism
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

41958. Latin American energy monopolies: Boom or bust?

Author:
Robert F. Noriega and Felipe Trigos
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
At a time when several Latin American economies should be “firing on all cylinders” to sustain growth and development, their critical petroleum sectors are underperforming. Despite hopeful projections, the biggest energy companies in Latin America are controlled by the state and are hampered by government interference and short-term political agendas. Although these companies should be the engines of growth for their national economies, resource nationalism and popular gasoline subsidies limit these companies’ abilities to evolve into more efficient, competitive, and profitable enterprises. Brazil’s Petrobras, Mexico’s Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), and Venezuela’s Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) are energy giants that are being consumed by mismanagement, corruption, and political agendas. For these companies to maximize their productivity and competitiveness and thereby deliver greater benefits to their countries, they should pursue professional management, transparency, and free competition with private companies and should open themselves to foreign capital and technology.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Business, and Monopoly
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

41959. Syrian Opposition: Risks of Fragmentation and Necessity of Consensus

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Syrian revolution’s landscape, with several centers of political and military power rather than one unified center, seems to be accelerating towards a breakdown. A number of factors, including the path towards Geneva II, lukewarm US-Saudi ties, wider differences between the internal and external opposition and the formation of the Syrian Islamic Front, have contributed to this impending breakdown. If the opposition is able to form an interim government despite considerable uncertainties as well as despite the necessary link with and responsibility to the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, it will provide a great opportunity to strengthen the relationship between internal opposition groups and those abroad. The most urgent challenge to the Syrian revolution today is enhancing confidence of all political and military powers in such a way that consensus is built on all levels. Anything short of that will render the revolution (militarily and politically) even more vulnerable to the changing winds around it.
Topic:
Politics, United Nations, Syrian War, Revolution, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

41960. Military Strengthens Grip on Sudanese Regime

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir’s recent changes to his cabinet resulted in the exit of seven major regime actors, sparking questions about hidden agendas because the changes were limited to civilian members of the government. The military’s role was enhanced by this shuffle, casting doubt on the criteria under which the civilian members of the cabinet were dismissed. The urgency of these substantial changes indicates Bashir is working under an undisclosed but important imperative that is associated with the upcoming presidential election as well as the desire of the incumbent Sudanese leadership to protect itself from prosecution by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Topic:
Military Affairs, Elections, and International Criminal Court (ICC)
Political Geography:
Sudan and Africa

41961. Beyond the Limits of Multiculturalism : The Role of Europe's Traditional Minorities

Author:
Tove H. Malloy
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
In the debate on multiculturalism in Europe, traditional minorities are often excluded even though their experience with diversity is longer than most. This is because the received wisdom in Europe seems to equate multiculturalism with immigration and lately mainly with Muslim communities. This is different in the Anglo world, and especially in the context of Canada and Australia, where traditional minorities and indigenous groups are considered a dimension of multiculturalism. However, traditional minorities have been part of the European fabric of cultures for centuries, and they have contributed to making multiculturalism work through a number of inter-cultural dialogue mechanisms. This Issue Brief will discuss the role of traditional minorities in multiculturalism, in particular in terms of institutional arrangements at different levels of government.
Topic:
Multiculturalism, Minorities, Ethnicity, Diversity, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe

41962. Changing the Angle: Does the Notion of Non-Territorial Autonomy Stand on Solid Ground?

Author:
Alexander Osipov
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
The ideas of non-territorial autonomy (NTA) for ethnic groups are used increasingly often, but in such a way, that perhaps it would be prudent at this point to take a step back and ask what some may already view as a naive question; namely, to ask why the notion of NTA is necessary and what added value it brings about. I would argue that the relative popularity of the concept rests not on real achievements in policy-making or research but rather on several taken for granted assumptions. The latter ones require a highly critical examination, and this brings us to a reconsideration of the role the notion may play and the scope of its potential application.
Topic:
Minorities, Ethnicity, Diversity, Identity, and Territory
Political Geography:
Europe

41963. Serbia-Kosovo Agree to Normalize Relations, Now to “Normalize” Society

Author:
Charles Cadwell
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
The prime ministers of Kosovo and of Serbia initialed an agreement Friday to normalize relations between their two countries. This accomplishment—at the last hour and under the careful and forceful leadership of the EU’s Catherine Ashton—does not, by itself, reconcile the long-standing enmity between neighbors in Kosovo, a territory now recognized by 90 countries as a nation. The devil is in the implementation details yet to be worked out.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Negotiation, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

41964. What Will "Our Turn to Eat" Mean the Day After the Kenyan Elections?

Author:
Charles Cadwell
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
All eyes are on Kenya today as some 14 million citizens are expected to vote for an array of candidates for president and other offices. The world hopes to avoid a repeat of the post-election violence in late 2007 and early 2008 that killed some 1,500 people and created as many as 600,000 refugees, a trauma that lingers even five years later. Indeed, one candidate and his running mate are under indictment at the International Criminal Court in The Hague for their role in the 2008 violence. Nonetheless, at a rally last weekend, six presidential candidates held hands and committed to accept the results of the vote. While there are reports of scattered pre-election violence, most observers do not expect a repeat of the last cycle’s mayhem. In this circumstance, it’s easy to lose sight of the dramatic changes in Kenya’s political and governmental structure that take place tomorrow. These elections launch an entirely new constitutional arrangement for Kenya.
Topic:
Government, Elections, Constitution, and Transition
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

41965. Lighting the way to municipal prosperity

Author:
Mary Larzelere
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
When was the last time you thought about street lights? They’re certainly something I’ve always taken for granted, until a recent trip to Kosovo as part of an Urban Institute program supported by USAID, the Democratic Effective Municipalities Initiative (DEMI). DEMI is a three-year, $20 million project dedicated to helping Kosovo municipalities achieve good governance at the local level. DEMI undertakes steps to make local service delivery more transparent and inclusive, and make local officials more accountable for results, a true challenge in any democracy, let alone a new one such as Kosovo’s.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Electricity, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

41966. Addicted to Punishment: The Disporportionality of Drug Laws in Latin America

Author:
Rodrigo Uprimny, Diana Esther Guzmán, and Jorge Parra
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
This document analyzes the proportionality of drug related crimes in seven Latin American countries through the study of the evolution of their criminal legislations from 1950 until 2012. The study suggests the existence of a regional tendency to maximize the use of criminal law for combating this type of conducts. Addicted to punishment is part of a series of studies carried out by the Research Consortium on Drugs and the Law (CEDD) that critically analyze the application of the proportionality principle in relation with drug crimes. The studies find that the punishments imposed and the punitive treatment of the offenders are disproportional, often generating more damages than benefits.
Topic:
Law, Criminal Justice, Drugs, Criminology, and Legal Sector
Political Geography:
Latin America

41967. Recent Developments at the Extraordinary Chambers of the Courts of Cambodia

Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
The death of Ieng Sary, one of the three accused in Case 002 at the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia, cast into sharp relief the many delays and difficulties that threaten to deny justice to the victims of the Khmer Rouge. The court continues to struggle with Case 002, while the specter of political interference haunts Cases 003 and 004, and a funding crisis hangs over the entire institution. This report examines recent events at the court and offers recommendations for action by the UN, the Royal Government of Cambodia, and the court’s donors.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Courts, and Transitional Justice
Political Geography:
Cambodia

41968. Migrant Workers’ Access to Justice at Home: Indonesia

Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
Each year, around half a million Indonesians travel abroad to work, half of those to the Middle East. Many are women who suffer abuse and exploitation when they work abroad but have virtually no access to recourse within their host country’s legal system. The vulnerability of migrant workers abroad makes it crucial for them to be able to seek redress in their own countries. Migrant Workers’ Access to Justice at Home: Indonesia is the first comprehensive study of migrant workers’ access to justice in their country of origin. A collaborative effort by the Open Society International Migration Initiative, the Tifa Foundation, and the Migrant Worker Access to Justice Project, the report analyzes how migrant workers may access justice in Indonesia, and identifies the systemic barriers that prevent them from receiving redress for harms they suffer before, during, and after their work abroad. The report also provides recommendations for improving access to justice and private sector accountability in 11 key areas, addressed to government, parliament, civil society, donors, and others. Migrant Workers’ Access to Justice at Home: Indonesia is an important contribution to advancing the rights of migrant workers and will serve as a valuable guide for civil society groups in Indonesia and elsewhere to better understand, use, and test existing justice mechanisms to enforce migrant workers’ rights.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, Employment, Economic Policy, Justice, Migrant Workers, and Legal Sector
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Middle East

41969. How the EU Can Safeguard Its “Fundamental Values”: Two Ideas

Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
This paper outlines two initiatives that could be taken up by the EU institutions to improve compliance with fundamental rights, democracy and the rule of law by EU Member States. These measures would not require the introduction of new legislation or amendment of the EU treaties. Rather, they could be put into effect within a short time-frame through informal changes in internal policy by the institutions and inter-institutional agreements.
Topic:
Human Rights, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Democracy, Civil Rights, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe

41970. How to Monitor the Rule of Law, Democracy, and Fundamental Rights in the EU

Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
There is a risk that no concrete steps will emerge from consultations and discussions in the European Commission and Council on how to protect the EU’s fundamental values within its member states. The European Commission could take two initiatives to improve compliance with fundamental rights, democracy, and the rule of law by its member states. Namely, to reintroduce country-monitoring and develop a fundamental rights litigation strategy. These measures would not require the introduction of new legislation or amendment of the EU treaties. Rather, they could be put into effect within a short timeframe through informal changes in internal policy by the institutions and inter-institutional agreements. This policy brief explores the legal and practical feasibility of these two initiatives with the goal of informing EU member state diplomats and Commission officials during their ongoing discussions on how best to protect fundamental rights in Europe.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Human Rights, European Union, Democracy, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe

41971. Can Democracy Take Root in Georgia?

Author:
Ivane Chkhikvadze
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
Seven months after a genuinely contested election led to a historic change of government in Georgia, the situation remains precarious. The new “cohabitation” between the Georgian Dream coalition led by Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili in a strengthened parliament and President Mikheil Saakahsvili has weathered constitutional reform but is far from stable. Recent arrests of former high-ranking officials have raised questions. The new government faces the challenge of meeting public demand for accountability for the previous government’s abuse of power while delivering an ambitious legislative reform agenda. Greater openness to civil society and its pro-reform agenda has impressed many impartial observers, but domestic impatience for socio-economic improvement and job creation is growing. This latest policy brief addresses the challenges in Georgia and for the ruling coalition, and argues that reforms aimed at an independent judiciary and effective criminal justice system should take precedence over restorative justice. It also advocates a constructive approach by government and opposition in enacting lasting reforms to state institutions to ensure that they are neutral and not fused with the ruling party. Although it needs to improve communication with international audiences, the government should place less importance on image-making abroad, but rather more time listening to citizens and delivering on reforms. Finally, in the run-up to the presidential elections in October and the Vilnius Summit in November, EU member states, parliamentarians, and officials should desist from taking sides based on partisan allegiances and judge Georgia on the implementation of its commitments.
Topic:
Democratization, Elections, Constitution, Illiberal Democracy, and Political Rights
Political Geography:
Georgia

41972. The EU Charter of Fundamental Rights: What Can It Do?

Author:
Israel Butler
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
The Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union is a legally binding document that contains a list of human rights recognised by the European Union (EU). It could become a powerful tool available to influence policy makers or serve as a basis for litigation. Individuals can use judicial and political mechanisms to hold EU institutions, and in certain circumstances member countries, to account when they fail to comply with the Charter. The Charter can also be used to pressure decision makers to bring policies and legislation under development in line with human rights standards. This background paper explains when and how the Charter can be used by advocates at national and EU level.
Topic:
European Union and Political Rights
Political Geography:
Europe

41973. The Race Equality Directive: A Shadow Report

Author:
Eefje de Kroon
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
The Race Equality Directive: A Shadow Report collects lessons learned from the implementation of the Race Equality Directive in nine European Union member states. The Race Equality Directive is a piece of legislation adopted in 2000 by the Council of Ministers of the European Union implementing the principle of equality for all irrespective of racial or ethnic origin. The directive comes under review at the end of 2013, 10 years after its entry into force. The report includes data on Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain. Annex I contains summaries of developments in each of these member states. The report identifies trends in the challenges facing the countries examined, examples of successful or problematic implementation, and includes recommendations for improving effective implementation. Challenges to the implementation of the Race Equality Directive include: lack of disaggregated data needed to implement parts of this legislation and evaluate its effectiveness; unclear identification of proxy categories that can be used to detect discrimination on the ground of racial and ethnic origin; problems that impede effective access to and use of judicial (individual or collective) redress against discrimination; hindrances to alternative forms of individual (or collective) redress, through the equality bodies. Analysis is based on two sources of data: country reports by specialized international monitoring bodies (excerpts of these are contained in Annex II) and data generated through a short questionnaire (in Annex III) completed by independent experts and subject matter experts within the Open Society Foundations.
Topic:
Race, Law, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Equality
Political Geography:
Greece, France, Germany, Bulgaria, Hungary, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, and Czech Republic

41974. Transforming Health: International Rights-Based Advocacy for Trans Health

Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
Trans people across the world face substantial barriers to adequate health and health care. They are targets of discrimination and violence, are at greater risk of contracting HIV, and experience a higher incidence of mental health problems like depression. They face discrimination from health care providers, a lack of doctors trained to address their needs, and the refusal of many national health systems and insurance providers to cover their care. Yet trans communities are building alliances to promote trans health and to fight for policies that respect gender diversity and human rights. This report profiles projects from 16 organizations in twelve countries that address these barriers. These projects offered general health services as well as those related to gender transition, trained health care providers to respond to the needs and concerns of trans patients, conducted public education campaigns about discrimination against trans people, advocated for legal and medical policy changes, and organized trans communities to empower themselves. Collecting insights from these projects, Transforming Health makes recommendations to governments, rights advocates, health professionals and public health organizations, and health and rights donors.
Topic:
HIV/AIDS, Gender Issues, Health, Discrimination, LGBT+, Public Health, Sexual Health, and Transgender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41975. Position Paper: Bringing migrant detention into line with human rights standards

Author:
Costanza Hermanin
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
On the occasion of the 2013 review of the implementation of the Return Directive, this position paper encourages the European Commission to consider whether to adopt updated guidelines. It urges member states to consider adopting legislation to bring procedural safeguards and minimum conditions in line with human rights standards whenever detention is used during the return process.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, Law, European Union, Legislation, Migrant Workers, and Political Rights
Political Geography:
Europe

41976. Human Rights and the Transformation Process in Turkey

Author:
Bülen Arınç
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
The increase in the number of nation-states and the violent wars of the last century has triggered the evolution of a new approach that seeks to find a place for the individual in international law. In other words, human rights has become internationalised and this is for the good of all humanity. Today, the fundamental human rights principles, such as justice, equality and freedom, have been embraced unquestionably and put into writing, which demonstrates that they were adopted by all peoples on earth. The fundamental principles of human rights include ensuring a life and governance system where all people will be free and equal and not subject to discrimination due to their race, colour, sex, language, religion, faith, nationality or ethnic origin. In addition, the rights must include an adequate standard of living for the individual, encompassing health, education, food, shelter and social services; an equal enjoyment of legal protection; freedom of assembly and association; and freedom of belief, conscience, thought and speech.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey

41977. Turkey’s Regional Approach in Afghanistan: A Civilian Power in Action

Author:
Saban Kardas
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Abstract:
This policy brief studies Turkey’s contributions to the resolution of the Afghan conflict by focusing on its regional approach. The brief puts forth the argument that Afghanistan provides a good show-case to demonstrate the elements of a new security culture Turkey has adopted in its post-Cold War transformation. Reflecting the growing power of civilians in the making of foreign policy, Turkey’s security culture has evolved in ways that it has embraced many liberal elements, which can be grouped under the concept of cooperative security.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey

41978. Making Sense of Turkish-EU Relations in the Aftermath of the Arab Spring

Author:
Bülent Aras
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
Both the EU’s recognition of the importance of its value system and Turkey’s rediscovery of its European component in its foreign policy identity have occurred during a period of radical transformation in the Mediterranean region. The Arab Spring has resulted in a process of renegotiation over territory, identity and governance which has eventually fostered the idea of a new regional political community. The EU is in an advantageous position now if it truly wants to build a political community eastwards and southwards. One logical move would be a renegotiation in the EU over Turkey’s role in a new vision for the future of the EU. Turkey’s European identity and policy style will continue to shape its own neighbourhood policy as it is at the centre of a new geopolitical thinking. Ankara sees itself as having an order-instituting role in its changing neighbourhood and is in a process of recalibrating its policies in this direction. The Turkish and EU models complement each other, and there is no possibility for any other model to compete with these perspectives in the foreseeable
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

41979. Security Matters

Author:
Centre for European Security Studies
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
In 2012 CESS conducted a range of activities in Turkey in the framework of the “Good Governance of the Security Sector in Turkey” programme: In March we organised a conference and a follow-up training course in Ankara on Financial Accountability and Budgetary Transparency of the Security Sector. During these events we discussed the main procedures in reviewing defence budgets and particular attention was dedicated to the role of the Court of Accounts. It became clear during the proceedings of both events that despite the fact that changes have been made for the better in Turkey with regard to financial oversight of the security sector, most of these changes unfortunately are only made on paper and are still not put into practice. The auditing process clearly lacks key mechanisms that would make the military more accountable. Therefore the Court of Accounts still has no real leverage over the military in terms of auditing defence spending.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41980. México ante la Revolución Energética

Author:
COMEXI
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI)
Abstract:
México ante la revolución energética” es producto del análisis y diálogo del Grupo de Trabajo de Energía del Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales (COMEXI). Expertos, especialistas y conocedores de primer nivel relacionados con el tema se dieron a la tarea de discutir y hacer una propuesta relacionada con un asunto clave en el escenario internacional actual: el cambiante panorama energético
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Mexico

41981. Gendering Global Conflict: Toward a Feminist Theory of War

Author:
Laura Sjoberg
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
Laura Sjoberg positions gender and gender subordination as key factors in the making and fighting of global conflict. Through the lens of gender, she examines the meaning, causes, practices, and experiences of war, building a more inclusive approach to the analysis of violent conflict between states. Considering war at the international, state, substate, and individual levels, Sjoberg's feminist perspective elevates a number of causal variables in war decision-making. These include structural gender inequality, cycles of gendered violence, state masculine posturing, the often overlooked role of emotion in political interactions, gendered understandings of power, and states' mistaken perception of their own autonomy and unitary nature. Gendering Global Conflict also calls attention to understudied spaces that can be sites of war, such as the workplace, the household, and even the bedroom. Her findings show gender to be a linchpin of even the most tedious and seemingly bland tactical and logistical decisions in violent conflict. Armed with that information, Sjoberg undertakes the task of redefining and reintroducing critical readings of war's political, economic, and humanitarian dimensions, developing the beginnings of a feminist theory of war.
Topic:
International Relations, Gender Issues, War, International Security, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus
Publication Identifier:
9780231520003
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

41982. 2013-2014 Guide to Women Leaders in International Affairs

Author:
Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG)
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG)
Abstract:
WFPG's Guide to Women Leaders in International Affairs highlights women shaping foreign policy around the world and the role that they play as leaders, diplomats, and policymakers. The Guide provides an index of prominent women from across the international community, including heads of state and government, government ministers and diplomats, and leaders of international organizations and corporations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, United Nations, Women, Leadership, and NGOs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41983. Agriculture as a Potent Economic Growth Driver for the Nigerian Economy

Author:
Daniel S. Ugwu, Emeka Nzeh, and Uzochukwu Amakom
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
This study is an attempt to assess the place of agriculture as a potent economic growth driver in the Nigerian economy. Essentially, the study explores information concerning the critical roles of agriculture to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and or economic growth of Nigeria; the study went forward to identify various endogenous and exogenous factors that have hindered the maximum performance of the agricultural sector in the country. Furthermore, the study, identifies other economic growth drivers that can accelerate the repositioning of agriculture as a major economic growth driver in Nigeria and Africa and finally, the study explores the various strategies that can be adopted to position Nigeria and indeed Africa on the path of prosperity through the development of the agricultural sector of the economy. The primary objective of the study is to explore ways of enhancing economic growth through agriculture by virtue of its potency as a major growth driver of the Nigerian economy and the African continent as a whole.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Poverty, Food, Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

41984. Public Financial Management and Fiscal Outcomes in Nigeria : Empirical Evidence

Author:
Kanayo Ogujiuba and Harrison Okafor
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
This study analysed the relationship between public financial management systems and fiscal outcomes in Nigeria. The findings indicate that institutional factors such as corruption and literacy rate affect the institutional pillars of PFM in Nigeria. The pillars include governance structure, accountability, transparency and predictability. Poor budget coordinating institutions, lack of respect for the rule of law, weak fundamentals of appropriation templates and contract management and poor accounting systems are the critical factors undermining the ability of these pillars to positively influence fiscal outcomes in Nigeria. Thus, the need to critically improve the index of capture, budget institutions and the coordination of the MDA’s capital budgeting system through integrated and systematic accounting system cannot be overemphasized.
Topic:
Finance, Accountability, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

41985. Conclusions of the Warsaw Dialogue for Democracy

Author:
Jerzy Pomianowski
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
Our discussion made me realise, once again, that democracy has one very important feature, brought to our attention by our friend from Libya: “Democracy has a price which has to be paid.” Indeed, there is a price that we have to pay for democracy. This applies equally to individual nations and international relations. I shall never forget the bitter, but how true remark made by a participant from Syria who reminded us that Kaddafi, Assad, Ben Ali or Mubarak could continue to act as long as we, representatives of democratic countries, shook hands with them. This is an important issue postulating that international relations be built on values.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, Democracy, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Poland, Libya, and North Africa

41986. La Pampa, the District with the Most Competitive Primaries

Author:
Adrian Lucardi, Gabriel C. Salvia, and Lara Jeich
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
The internal competitiveness of the 2013 primary elections (PASO) was very low, indicating that parties/alliances remain far from a political opening that involves citizens in the selection of candidates for general elections. In that regard, with the purpose of evaluating compliance with the objectives of the law which enabled the PASO elections to take place, the following is an index that measures the competitiveness of the primaries this year. The internal competitiveness of the 2013 primary elections (PASO) was very low, indicating that parties/alliances remain far from a political opening that involves citizens in the selection of candidates for general elections. In that regard, with the purpose of evaluating compliance with the objectives of the law which enabled the PASO elections to take place, the following is an index that measures the competitiveness of the primaries this year.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

41987. Conclusions of the 17th Forum 2000 Conference

Author:
Gareth Evans
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
A constantly recurring theme in our discussions has been the extent to which a country’s, or group of countries’, distinctive history and culture impacts on what can be done and how quickly it can be done when it comes to both initiating and sustaining transitions from authoritarianism to democracy, and in particular whether revolutions are likely to consolidate or collapse.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Conference, Transition, and Society
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41988. Women Empowerment: A Case Study of a Refugee Women's Group at the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (Appendix E)

Author:
Malose Langa
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
This report evaluates the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation's (CSVR's) work with a group of refugee women affected by torture and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment. Over a period of six years, facilitators from CSVR met with a group of refugee women with the overall aim of facilitating their economic and social empowerment and setting in motion their integration into mainstream South African society. The intervention broke the stereotypes that cast refugee women as helpless victims who are in need of 'hand-outs' by galvanising their self-reliance and agency to form an organisation that will advocate for refugee rights and establish income-generating projects. This evaluation was conducted as part of the critical reflection process that fed into CSVR's development of a model for community intervention to address torture, detailed in Finding our way: Developing a community work model for addressing torture.
Topic:
Women, Refugees, Violence, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

41989. African Union Transitional Justice Policy Framework in Practice: Implementing Accountability Measures

Author:
Jasmina Brankovic
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
Based on work by Naomi Roht-Arriaza, this brief focuses on a central aspect of transitional justice: preventing impunity for past human rights abuses. Drawing on lessons from Latin America, the brief outlines several accountability processes available to African Union member states and African civil society organisations, the strengths and challenges of implementing these official processes at the national level and strategies for promoting accountability that have proven useful in diverse country contexts. It discusses regional litigation and domestic prosecutions, as well as reparations, truth telling and community‐based justice mechanisms.
Topic:
Human Rights, Transitional Justice, Accountability, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Latin America

41990. Homophobia, Injustice and 'Corrective Rape' in Post-Apartheid South Africa

Author:
Kylie Thomas
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
This report offers a critique of the terms 'corrective rape' and 'curative rape' and argues for careful and nuanced application of the concept of 'hate crimes'. The report focuses on a particular, individual life history and experience of trauma. It also argues for understanding gender‐based violence as structural violence.
Topic:
Gender Based Violence, Rape, LGBT+, Sexual Violence, Hate Crimes, and Homophobia
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

41991. The Power of Naming: 'Senseless Violence' and Violent Law in Post-Apartheid South Africa

Author:
Kylie Thomas
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
This report focuses on vigilantism, on the practice of 'necklacing' as a form of punishment, and on police violence in South Africa post-apartheid. The report engages with a series of questions about how popular forms of justice are imagined and enacted and about what the persistence of forms of violent punishment that originated during apartheid signifies in South Africa today. The report explores some of the complex reasons why people understand violence to be a means for achieving justice. It considers issues related to collective violence, violence connected to service delivery protests, and violence widely understood by perpetrators, onlookers, and researchers to be punitive in intent. It contests the idea that such forms of violence are 'senseless', arguing that to do so is to evade the question of how violence is bound to the political order, both past and present.
Topic:
Apartheid, Law, Violence, and Vigilantism
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

41992. The Persistence of Military Identities among Ex-Combatants in South Africa

Author:
Maringira Godfrey and Jasmina Brankovic
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
This report focuses on the ways in which ex-combatants have remained militarised at both an individual and a collective level in post-apartheid South Africa. It argues that ex-combatants' military identities and skills can be both beneficial and detrimental to their families, communities and the state. For this reason, as long as DDRR programmes remain short-term processes aimed chiefly at disarming ex-combatants without addressing their ongoing needs in highly unequal and violent societies, the demilitarisation of ex-combatants' minds and everyday lives will be an unattainable goal.
Topic:
Violence, Reconciliation, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

41993. Opportunities and Challenges of South-South Partnership: Reflections on a Collaborative Research Project on Violence and Transition in Africa

Author:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
This report reflects on the experience of four South-based organisations in conducting collaborative research on violence and transition in Africa. It explores some of the challenges and opportunities offered by working collaboratively on common themes across different contexts with research partners with diverse goals and institutional arrangements, and seeks to draw some lessons for how such partnerships can benefit individual organisations and research on violence more generally. The report is based on the final project meeting where partners engaged in a joint reflection on more than three years of collaboration.
Topic:
Partnerships, Transitional Justice, Violence, and Collaboration
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

41994. Exploring Experiences of Torture and CIDT That Occurred in South Africa Amongst Non-Nationals Living in Johannesburg

Author:
Malose Langa
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
This report is a part of the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR), Trauma and Transition Project, to understand changing patterns of torture and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment (CIDT) in the new South Africa. This report specifically looks at the experiences of torture and CIDT amongst non‐nationals in South Africa. The paper presents findings from desk reviews and primary research carried out in Hillbrow (in Johannesburg).
Topic:
Torture, Citizenship, Trauma, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

41995. The Politics of Sectarianism

Author:
Toby Mathiesen, Marc Lynch, Fanar Haddad, Christian Caryl, and Geneive Abdo
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
A group of Syrian-Americans arrived at an academic conference at Lehigh University last week in Bashar al-Assad t-shirts and draped in Syrian flags adorned with Assad’s face. They repeatedly heckled and interrupted speakers, and one told an opposition figure that he deserved a bullet in the head. When a speaker showed a slide picturing dead Syrian children, they burst into loud applause. When another speaker cynically predicted that Bashar would win a 2014 presidential vote, they cheered. In the final session, they aggressively interrupted and denounced a Lebanese journalist, with one ultimately throwing his shoe at the stage. The panel degenerated into a screaming match, until police arrived to clear the room. This spectacle might seem notable in that it unfolded at a U.S. university, but otherwise it would pass for an alarmingly normal day at the office in today’s toxically polarized Middle East. Such intense mutual hostility, irreconcilable narratives, and public denunciations are typical of any number of highly polarized political arenas across the region. A similar scene between supporters and opponents of Egypt’s military coup is all too easily imagined — just add bullets. That’s why the disproportionate focus on sectarian conflict as the defining feature of the emerging Middle East seems dangerously misplaced. Sunni-Shiite tensions are only one manifestation of how a number of deeper trends have come together in recent years to give frightening new power to identity politics writ large. The explosion of Sunni-Shiite conflict in recent years has very little do to with intrinsic religious differences or with 1,400 years of Islamic history. It should instead be understood as an entirely typical example of identity politics, one in which sectarian differences happen to be the most easily available to politicians hoping to exploit them for cynical purposes. It looks much the same as the ethnic and religious polarization that ripped apart the former Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. The sectarian polarization in Bahrain or Syria has followed very similar patterns to the Islamist-secularist polarization in Egypt and Tunisia. Responding to these sectarian tensions by embracing authoritarian states, focusing on religious authorities or exegesis, or promoting cross-sectarian reconciliation will miss the point. Today’s sectarianism is political to the core — even if it increasingly seems at risk of racing beyond the control of its cynical enablers. Interpreting Sunni-Shiite conflict as just another manifestation of a millennia-old conflict repeats a broadly essentialist position which tends to be the first resort every time ethnic or sectarian violence breaks out. Such approaches tend to focus on intrinsic, deeply rooted, and irreconcilable cultural differences between groups which can always pose a risk of escalation to violence (think Robert Kaplan’s Balkan Ghosts, which supposedly convinced Bill Clinton of the inevitability of Yugoslav ethnic slaughters). Evidence of decades of coexistence or intermarriage rarely impresses proponents of an essentialist approach. These differences might be latent for long periods of time, but given the opportunity — electoral mobilization, state failure, sudden explosions of local violence — people will tend to fall back on these deep identities. Such arguments tend to lead toward solutions involving the heavy hand of authoritarian states to suppress these supposedly inevitable violent tendencies, or toward partition into ethnic enclaves if state collapse has gone too far.
Topic:
Sectarianism, Political Science, Sunni, and Shia
Political Geography:
Middle East

41996. The Political Science of Syria’s War

Author:
Marc Lynch, Fotini Christia, Laia Balcells, James Fearon, and Roger Petersen
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Arab Uprisings, Civil War, Spotlight, Syria POMEPS Studies 5: The Political Science of Syria’s War POMEPS Studies 5The Political Science of Syria’s War POMEPS Studies 5 – December 18, 2013 * For more references on Syria and civil wars click here. Syria is about to enter its third year of a brutal conflict which has killed more than 100,000 people and driven millions from their homes. What began as a peaceful civil uprising inspired by the successful Egyptian and Tunisian uprisings has long since devolved into a complex, protracted civil war fueled by an array of external interventions on all sides. It’s hardly the first complex civil war to scar the modern world, though. Indeed, the study of civil wars is arguably among the richest current research programs in all of political science. So what does the political science literature on civil wars and insurgencies have to say about Syria’s evolving war and how it might be ended? To find out, last month I convened a workshop through the Project on Middle East Political Science (which also sponsors the Middle East Channel). I invited more than a dozen of the leading scholars of civil wars to write memos applying their research to the Syrian case. These scholars were joined by a number of Syria specialists, and a range of current and former U.S. government officials with responsibility for Syria. This special POMEPS Brief collects the memos prepared for that conference, along with several articles previously published on the Middle East Channel. The overall conclusion of most of the contributors will come as no surprise: The prospects for either a military or a negotiated resolution of Syria’s war are exceedingly grim. But that’s only part of the story. More interesting, perhaps, are the reasons that Syria seems so resistant to resolution — and how international policies have contributed to the problem.
Topic:
Conflict, Syrian War, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

41997. Direct Social Expenditures: A Monitoring Guide for Civil Society Organizations

Author:
Rocio Lopez
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
This paper provides civil society organizations with different strategies to obtain and analyze detailed information on direct social expenditures (DSE) by companies. It also provides civil society with useful lessons on advancing the transparency agenda in this area. The World Bank defines corporate social responsibility (CSR) as “companies’ commitment to contribute to sustainable economic development by working with employees, their families, the local community and society at large to improve their quality of life in a way that is beneficial for business and also for development.” Extractive industries engage in CSR because their activities are considered among the most environmentally and socially disruptive and it is critically important for them to secure their “social licenses to operate.” As part of their CSR extractive companies invest significant amounts of resources to undertake social development programs; in 2001, oil, gas and mining companies disbursed more than $500 million in community development programs. These expenditures can have a large impact on small local economies. When poorly conceived and implemented, they can lead to corruption and undermine government authorities and institutions. In addition, these resources are obtained on the basis of concessions of oil, gas and minerals that belong to citizens. Companies receive fiscal concessions or incentives from the social activities undertaken in the countries where they operate. All these reasons make it imperative that civil society organizations monitor DSE to ensure they are spent effectively. Companies can employ different mechanisms to disburse DSE. These could be a function of program objectives and other contextual factors. A company might implement different mechanisms in different countries. It could use public or private disbursement channels, or a combination of both. CSOs need to understand these mechanisms and their pros and cons in order to monitor them. The paper studies the experience of two CSOs—Grupo Propuesta Ciudadana (GPC) in Peru and Instituto Brasileiro de Análises Sociais e Econômicas (IBASE) in Brazil—that successfully made extractive companies disclose information on their expenditures and have since monitored and evaluated the impact of these expenditures. Both CSOs created transparency indices and performed social audits to rigorously assess and rank company performance and undertake evidence-based policy advocacy. GPC successfully obtained information from more than 30 companies on $900 billion worth of social expenditures, and IBASE convinced over 300 private companies to disclose their social audits. The paper also explores experiences of countries that have negotiated including direct social expenditures in the disclosure requirements of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). Despite progress in companies disclosing relevant data in recent years, transparency of direct social expenditures is more the exception than the norm. Companies should improve their reporting by providing detailed information about the types of projects funded, the objective of such projects, the amounts disbursed, and the persons responsible for allocating these resources. Contracts that include social expenditure obligations should be available for public consumption.
Topic:
Civil Society, Governance, Business, Extractive Industries, and Social Responsibility
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41998. Subnational Oil, Gas and Mineral Revenue Management

Author:
Andrew Bauer
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
This paper discusses challenges and approaches in managing resource revenues at the subnational level. Subnational resource-rich governments face distinct challenges in managing revenues from volatile, exhaustible resources. These include: unpredictable and discretionary resource revenue transfers between national and subnational governments, which can undermine development planning; resource revenue volatility which can lead to wasteful spending, poor quality investments; over the longer term, the finite nature of oil, gas and mineral revenues can lead to a long period of economic growth followed by a depression; and difficulty in scaling up public investment efficiently when experiencing a revenue windfall. To address revenue volatility, subnational governments can “smooth” expenditures by delinking revenues from expenditures. When revenues are unexpectedly high, governments can run a surplus, to be saved or used to pay down public debt. When revenues are unexpectedly low, they can draw on those savings or borrow. To prevent long-term booms and busts, governments can also save a portion of resource revenues for future generations, as well as invest in the local economy to generate future growth. Fiscal rules can underpin these policies, constraining government spending decisions and compelling government bodies to adopt a long-term perspective on public finances. Development planning can help prepare resource-rich regions for life after their oil, gas or minerals have been depleted. Planning helps prevent shortsighted reactions to temporary ebbs and flows in oil or mineral revenues, helps define the role of the resource sector in development, and lays the groundwork for a thriving post-extractive economy.
Topic:
Oil, Governance, Gas, Tax Systems, Diversification, Revenue Management, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41999. Local Content Initiatives: Enhancing the Subnational Benefits of the Oil, Gas and Mining Sectors

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Resource-rich regions usually expect and strive for local economies to benefit from oil, gas and mineral projects. Unfortunately, that is not always the case. These regions do not always know how to take advantage of extractive activities to create sustainable economic development, be it creating jobs and developing local businesses or building skills and improving technologies. Local content is the processes of building such economic capital at the national and subnational level, and meeting set public policy objectives. This paper offers guidance on designing and implementing local content initiatives in the oil, gas and mining sectors to ensure economic sustainability within producing regions. It aims to answer the question of how national and subnational governments, industry and civil society can maximize local benefits through partnerships among governments, companies and civil society organizations (CSOs). Governments should set clear targets based on which companies should make commitments and publish transparent reports on results. CSOs can then analyze the results and monitor progress of local content initiatives.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, Gas, Mining, and Extractive Industries
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42000. Trip Modeling and Cost Analysis for Public Road Transport System for the City of Lusaka

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR) and ROM Transportation Engineering Ltd.
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The increase in the use of private motor vehicles for routine travel within the City of Lusaka suggests weakness in the Public Transport (PT) system. Regrettably, the majority of the intra-city travelers have to accept an ineffective and inefficient PT system or resort to walking/cycling whereas those who can afford turn to private motoring. . It is evident that the less privileged travelers of the City are the most affected by the weaknesses of the current PT system. The current PT fares are unsustainably high and service levels undesirable. This is largely owes to the minimal regulation approach to public transport operations in Zambia. The commitment by Government to invest in transport infrastructure such as ring roads, filter lanes and traffic light is backed by the realization that intra-city travel is becoming more and more problematic and that the situation would become unsustainable in future if it were to be left unaddressed. These measures will substantially tackle a lot of the emerging local travel problems, but the need to examine the current travel demand management and its effectiveness in promotion of public transport usage is equally important. Additional measures will be required to enhance PT services provision, making it more efficient, effective and affordable. Enhanced PT services are expected to engender a reduction in dependency on private motoring and the associated traffic congestion concerns on one hand and an increase PT usage on the other. In this research we investigated some of the key features of the PT system in the City of Lusaka, model its trips and analyses its costs. Our analysis is based on a survey of bus services, covering approximately 50 bus routes and over 1,700 passengers. GPS data was also gathered for purposes of modelling trips and charting bus routes. In our analysis we considered aspects of service specifications, current level of service, fuel consumption, revenue, average trip costs, driver expenses, operator expenses and bus revenue allocation. Most of these aspects were found to be far off from the international best practice and international benchmarking. Our research concluded that the PT system for Lusaka fails to sufficiently meet the routine travel requirements of the majority. Finally, we recommend some measure that could be considered to address the issues arising and to better manage the travel demand of the City’s population. These measures are first highlighted in isolation because they can be implemented as such. However, we recommend combining all the measures into a single set of actions which can be implemented in stages in order to harness the synergies of a joint implementation which could yield up to as much as 48 percent PT fare reduction.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Transportation, and Public Investment
Political Geography:
Zambia and Africa