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31. Austrian Migration Policy and the Events in Afghanistan and Belarus

Author:
Łukasz Ogrodnik
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Contrary to the government’s rhetoric about restrictive migration policy, Austria remains open to the settlement of people from outside the EU. The takeover of power by the Taliban in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 and the intensifying crisis on the border between EU countries and Belarus stimulated the Austrian government in international forums in the field of migration. The prospects for cooperation with the V4 countries in this regard were heightened after interior minister Karl Nehammer was elevated to Chancellor.
Topic:
Government, International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, and Borders
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, Austria, and Belarus

32. Germany in the Shadow of War and Inflation: Six Months of the Scholz Government

Author:
Łukasz Jasiński
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), The Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) came to power with the intention of undertaking significant economic and social reforms. Their ambitious plans were symbolised by the title of the coalition agreement, “Daring to Make More Progress”. The war in Ukraine, though, has forced the government to take revolutionary steps in the areas of defence and energy security. The Chancellor’s vagueness about the supply of weapons to Ukraine has been causing his SPD’s ratings to fall and The Greens’ popularity to rise. To reverse this trend, the chancellor will pursue further social reforms.
Topic:
Government, War, Domestic Politics, Inflation, and Olaf Scholz
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Germany

33. The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, public health, and the economy

Author:
Philippe Aghion, Guntram Wolff, Philippe Martin, Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud, Bary Pradelski, Miquel Oliu-Barton, Nicolas Woloszko, Patrick Artus, and Arnaud Fontanet
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
In the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have, among other measures, mandated the use of COVID certificates to prove vaccination, recovery or a recent negative test, and have required individuals to show certificates to access shops, restaurants, and education or workplaces. While arguments for and against COVID certificates have focused on reducing transmission and ethical concerns, the incentive effects of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes and the economy has not yet been investigated. To estimate these effects, we construct counterfactuals based on innovation diffusion theory for France, Germany and Italy. We estimate that the announcement of COVID certificates during summer 2021 led to increased vaccine uptake in France of 13.0 (95% CI 9.7–14.9) percentage points (p.p.) of the total population up to the end of the year, in Germany 6.2 (2.6–6.9) p.p., and in Italy 9.7 (5.4–12.3) p.p. Further, this averted an additional 3,979 (3,453–4,298) deaths in France, 1,133 (-312–1,358) in Germany, and 1,331 (502–1,794) in Italy; and prevented gross domestic product (GDP) losses of €6.0 (5.9–6.1) billion in France, €1.4 (1.3–1.5) billion in Germany, and €2.1 (2.0–2.2) billion in Italy. Notably, the application of COVID certificates substantially reduced the pressure on intensive care units (ICUs) and, in France, prevented occupancy levels being exceeded where prior lockdowns were instated. Varying government communication efforts and restrictions associated with COVID certificates may explain country differences, such as the smaller effect in Germany. Overall, our findings are more sizeable than predicted. This analysis may help inform decisions about when and how to employ COVID certificates to increase vaccine uptake and thus avoid stringent interventions, such as closures, curfews, and lockdowns, with major social and economic consequences.
Topic:
Government, Economy, Public Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

34. Getting Real about Unknowns in Complex Policy Work

Author:
Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
As with all public policy work, education policies are demanding. Policy workers need to ‘know’ a lot—about the problems they are addressing, the people who need to be engaged, the promises they can make in response, the context they are working in, and the processes they will follow to implement. Most policy workers answer questions about such issues within the structures of plan and control processes used to devise budgets and projects. These structures limit their knowledge gathering, organization and sense-making activities to up-front planning activities, and even though sophisticated tools like Theories of Change suggest planners ‘know’ all that is needed for policy success, they often do not. Policies are often fraught with ‘unknowns’ that cannot be captured in passive planning processes and thus repeatedly undermine even the best laid plans. Through a novel strategy that asks how much one knows about the answers to 25 essential policy questions, and an application to recent education policy interventions in Mozambique, this paper shows that it is possible to get real about unknowns in policy work. Just recognizing these unknowns exist—and understanding why they do and what kind of challenge they pose to policy workers—can help promote a more modest and realistic approach to doing complex policy work.
Topic:
Education, Government, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

35. The Israeli Government Falls: New Election and Implications for U.S.-Israel Relations

Author:
David Makovsky and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Watch an expert webcast examining the collapse of the year-old coalition government, the impact on President Biden’s upcoming Middle East trip, and the potential consequences for broader U.S.-Israel policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America

36. Scoring Iraq’s New Government: Metrics for Preserving U.S. Interests

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The protracted post-election process has been a step backward for Iraqi democracy, so Washington will need to closely monitor the new leadership’s actions and hold Baghdad to measurable benchmarks. Iraq’s stalled government formation process finally lurched forward on October 17, with new president Abdul Latif Rashid taking office more than a year after the 2021 election. Incoming prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani will now try to ratify his cabinet during a parliamentary session on October 22. If he succeeds as expected, Baghdad will finally close perhaps its most troubled electoral cycle yet—a chapter in which a clear popular vote nearly failed to produce a peaceful transition of power, and the losing factions spurred the biggest winner to abandon parliament through corrupt judicial rulings. Under these sad circumstances, the U.S. government and its partners need to quietly but insistently push for early, inclusive elections to restore legitimacy to the democratic process. Simultaneously, all of Iraq’s friends must watch the new government like a hawk to ensure that militias and corrupt politicians do not attempt to purge technocrats, conduct witch hunts against Western-leaning officials, cover up past graft, or initiate a new wave of “asset-stripping” via state institutions. After many false alarms, the survival of Iraq’s close relationship with the West is truly at stake right now, and only firm expectation-setting can ensure that the partnership continues.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Terrorism, Reform, Democracy, and Military
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

37. Meloni at the Helm: What Does Italy’s New Government Mean for Sino-Italian Relations?

Author:
Andrew R. Novo
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Questions about the unity of Italy’s new government on several key foreign policy issues persist, ranging from the extent of its support for Ukraine to its commitment to various European Union institutions. However, on the issue of China, the new government of Prime Minister (PM) Giorgia Meloni appears united. This bodes well for transatlantic cooperation and could spell trouble for Beijing, which not too long ago entertained ideas of using Italy as a friendly counterweight in Europe. Under Meloni, Italian foreign policy, particularly toward China, is unlikely to chart a dramatically new course. This is largely because the current government has prioritized its commitment to NATO and needs to focus on domestic issues rather than risk upsetting the international arena. While openings remain for Sino-Italian cooperation in economic terms, such cooperation will be geared toward supporting Italy’s domestic challenges and is unlikely to provide Beijing with the significant foothold that it has long hoped to gain in Europe.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Giorgia Meloni
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

38. Why Elections Won’t Happen in Libya

Author:
Asma Khalifa
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The 2021 agreement on holding elections was perceived by many Libyans as the light at the end of the dark tunnel of civil war and a reset to the political stagnation and the legal crisis. More than 2.5 million Libyans registered to vote, only for them to watch on the media a deliberate sabotage by those who were trusted in the process to commit to the agreement. While Libya is again setting the ground for future elections, this paper puts forward three points on why elections will not happen in Libya.
Topic:
Government, Democracy, Conflict, and Voting
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

39. Tunisia's Economy

Author:
Intissar Fakir, Marwa Haddar, and Fadil Aliriza
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Intissar Fakir is joined by Marwa Haddar and Fadil Aliriza to discuss the economic issues Tunisia is facing, international financial institutions' role in the crisis, and the government's actions, or lack thereof, to help the country.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Finance, International Institutions, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

40. Iraq's Deepening Political Crisis

Author:
Farhad Alaaldin and Robert Ford
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Ten months on from last October’s elections, Iraq still does not have a new government and faces a deepening political crisis. To understand the current situation's perils and what may be next for the future of the country, we are joined by Farhad Alaaldin, chairman of the Iraq Advisory Council, and Robert Ford, MEI Senior Fellow and former Ambassador to Syria and Algeria.
Topic:
Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East