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2. Northeast Asia Defense Transparency Index 2021–22
- Author:
- Chi Fang and Jade Reidy
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Military tensions are on the rise in Northeast Asia as the likes of China, North Korea, and the United States flex their combat capabilities—but this does not mean that war is imminent. This is an important insight from the latest Northeast Asia Defense Transparency Index (DTI) for the period spanning 2021 to 2022. Carried out every two years by the University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, the DTI offers a detailed examination of how open or closed major regional states are in disclosing information on their defense postures, including defense budgets, publication of official annual defense reports, legislative oversight, and the nature of external military activities. The 2021–22 DTI found that there was only a marginal decline in the overall defense transparency level for Northeast Asia, with Japan showing a noteworthy improvement in its transparency performance. The concealment of defense activities is often an indicator that countries are quietly making preparations for military conflict and contributes to declining trust and confidence. The evidence from this DTI that defense transparency is relatively stable in Northeast Asia is cause for cautious optimism that the long peace that the region has enjoyed remains intact for now. Transparency though is just one indicator of the overall state of defense affairs, and the powerful underlying currents that are the main determinants of war and peace, such as threat perceptions and arms dynamics, all appear to be trending negatively.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, International Security, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- China, North Korea, Northeast Asia, and United States of America
3. The Zangezur corridor as part of the global transport route (against the backdrop of power games in the South Caucasus region)
- Author:
- Piotr Gawliczek and Khayal Iskandarov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The restoration of historical transport routes and the creation of new ones is a strategic objective of most states in modern times. Located at the intersection of the North–South and East–West transport routes, Azerbaijan is currently recognised as an important transport and logistics hub. Successful cooperation with European Union countries in this field is taking place. The East–West and North–South international transport routes passing through the territory of Azerbaijan are very convenient for cargo transportation in terms of distance and duration. This paper discusses the plausibility of the Zangezur corridor being used (which is mentioned in the tripartite agreement that dates back to 10 November 2020) and highlights its importance as an integral element of the global transit route. A comparative analysis of different transit routes was carried out, and the advantages of opening this corridor for all stakeholders was justified.
- Topic:
- International Security, Military Strategy, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Economic Security
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus
4. Systemic Operational Design – a study in failed concept
- Author:
- Łukasz Przybyło
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- One of the many reasons for the failure of the Israel Defence Forces’ (IDF) in the Second Lebanon War was the concept of Systemic Operational Design (SOD), translated into de facto military doctrine. The story of the rise and fall of the SOD idea is a warning sign for all militaries faced with “modern” and “fashionable” ideas. The purpose of this paper is therefore to describe and evaluate the Systemic Operational Design created and introduced into the IDF by Brigadier General Shimon Naveh and the Operational Theory Research Institute (OTRI). The study is based on the literature created by the State of Israel, the IDF, and its main proponent Shimon Naveh, as well as other militaries (mainly the US Army). This theoretical background is confronted with the IDF’s operations during the Second Lebanon War of 2006 and their effects on the war’s outcome. The over intellectualised, ambiguous, and not properly structured concept of the SOD, introduced as the IDF’s doctrine and approach to operations, led to military failure (which also had more root causes) in Lebanon. A study of the SOD failure should lead to a careful approach being taken to all new military concepts and ideas. Both change and continuation need to be properly balanced and evaluated, while enhanced military effectiveness could be of great value. At the same time, the impact of concepts which are not well anchored in military science/history and untested, like the SOD, could be devastating for militaries.
- Topic:
- International Security, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Military, and 2006 Lebanon War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
5. Unknown gunmen and insecurity in Nigeria: Dancing on the brink of state fragility
- Author:
- Tope Shola Akinyetun, Victor Chukwugekwu Ebonine, and Iyase Osariyekemwen Ambrose
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- There is a compelling need to address the protracted and recurring multidimensional insecurity in Nigeria. The prevalence of insecurity in the country is multipronged and caught in a cyclic web. Insecurity in Nigeria comprises insurgency, killer herdsmen, extrajudicial killings, ethnoreligious conflict, armed robbery, militancy, banditry, cybercrime and attacks by unknown gunmen, among other things. The incidence of attacks by unknown gunmen is pervasive and symptomatic of a fragile state where the government’s monopoly of force is challenged and where marginalisation, crises and contested spaces are ubiquitous. The thrust of this paper is that the menace of unknown gunmen is pervasive and threatens to plunge Nigeria into a cesspit of fragility. The argument is predicated on the conceptual and theoretical suppositions of a fragile state. To this end, the paper adopts the documentary method of data collection and uses qualitative descriptive analysis to expound on the phenomenon. The findings reveal that the words unknown gunmen – terminology that is used to describe the spate of insecurity in the country – are a bane to peaceful coexistence. The paper also shows that the insecurity caused by these armed attacks and other forms of threat is emblematic of a fragile state. Consequently, policy recommendations – state-building and peace-building – are proffered.
- Topic:
- Security, International Security, Conflict, Legitimacy, and Fragility
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
6. Trojan spoofing: A threat to critical infrastructure
- Author:
- Tegg Westbrook
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- This article explores the phenomenon of location spoofing—where the spoofer is able to “teleport” systems in and out of defined locations, either for the purpose of infiltration into no-go zones or for the “teleportation” out of real, defined zones in the physical world. The research relied on a qualitative methodology, utilising academic research findings, media reports, hacker demonstrations, and secondary data from these sources, to situate the spoofing threat in the context of international security. This conceptual, argumentative essay finds that signal spoofing, the methods of which can be followed via online scripts, allows users the ability to overcome geographically defined territorial restrictions. This, as this article finds, allows violent actors to weaponise systems, such as unmanned aerial systems, potentially leading to the escalation of political tensions in extreme but unfortunately ever-frequent episodes. The article concludes that, while Trojan spoofing (in particular) poses a real and an existential threat to international security, it is only a sum-of-all parts in considering other threats to critical functions in society. If geofences are used as a single point of security to protect assets against hostile actors, managers need to be aware of the vulnerability of intrusion and the resulting geopolitical consequences.
- Topic:
- International Security, Cybersecurity, Information Warfare, Military, GPS, and Deception
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
7. Integrating Earth observation IMINT with OSINT data to create added-value multisource intelligence information: A case study of the Ukraine–Russia war
- Author:
- Ioannis Kotaridis and Georgios Benekos
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 heralded a new “social media war” era. This “hybrid warfare” extends beyond the military landscape and includes attacks in cyberspace and fake news with the aim of destabilising governments. The goal of this paper is to present a high-level of architecture based on imagery intelligence (IMINT) and geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) using geographic datasets and state-of-the-art methods. Integration with intelligence information (like Open-Source Intelligence [OSINT]) produces multiintelligent knowledge for security and defence decision-making end users. The results depict a harmonious and creative collaboration between IMINT, OSINT, and GEOINT. OSINT data helps to identify and describe the meteorological conditions that are present, contributing to the procedure’s responsiveness. Weather and dense cloud cover above Ukraine poses a challenge for optical imaging satellites, but synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensor satellites can operate at night and overcome the problem. We carried out OSINT and IMINT analysis, monitoring the situation shortly after the invasion. OSINT data helped in the choice of an appropriate area of interest. Using the right Earth observation satellite system and artificial intelligence/machine learning algorithms is the best way to keep an eye on many different sites over long periods, send out alerts about unusual activity, and find new places where incoherent changes might be happening.
- Topic:
- International Security, Artificial Intelligence, Hybrid Warfare, Military, Russia-Ukraine War, and Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
8. Measuring economic resilience for the CEE and Black Sea countries in the framework of comprehensive defense
- Author:
- Maria Constantinescu
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The main research objective of this paper is to identify key factors influencing economic resilience from the perspective of comprehensive defence. This involves developing a composite economic resilience index (Ericda) that outlines the relative economic resilience of countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea regions, within the comprehensive defence framework. The paper employs qualitative research methods, focusing on an analysis of specialist literature pertaining to economic resilience. Quantitative methods are also used for developing the Economic Resilience Index from the Comprehensive Approach to Defence (Ericda) perspective. This includes using data on selected resilience indicators in Central and the Eastern European and Black Sea region countries to generate rankings. The results of the study reveal strong positive correlations between the economic resilience index and various factors, such as logistics and infrastructure, economic complexity, foreign trade vulnerabilities and dependence, economic stability and development, governance effectiveness, military, and human capital. Additionally, a negative correlation was observed with the resilience index. The research findings suggest that to ensure effective comprehensive defence, isolated measures targeting individual pillars are inadequate. Economic resilience requires a collaborative approach, extending beyond the purview of the finance ministry and involving a broader range of stakeholders.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Security, Resilience, Economic Security, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Black Sea
9. NATO's Strategic Concept: Implications for Greece and Türkiye
- Author:
- Nikolaos Lampas
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- This article analyses the impact of North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) new strategic concept on its involvement in the Eastern Mediterranean and its implications for Greek-Turkish relations. We analyse the application of NATO’s new strategic concept in the Eastern Mediterranean by focusing on the case study of Greek-Turkish tensions and NATO’s role in de-escalation efforts. The case study of Greek-Turkish relations is vital for two reasons. Firstly, because of NATO’s renewed interest in the Eastern Mediterranean region, and secondly, because the complicated relationship between the two countries has the potential to disrupt NATO’s unity. The findings of this article suggest that while NATO’s intention is to adapt to evolving security challenges, its new strategic concept has done little to de-escalate the tensions between Greece and Türkiye. Despite the Alliance’s commitment to collective defence and conflict resolution, the longstanding disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean have persisted, often with increased intensity. In conclusion, NATO’s new strategic concept acknowledges the burgeoning complexities in the Eastern Mediterranean, yet falls markedly short of introducing effective measures to de-escalate the longstanding tensions between Greece and Türkiye. While the document perceptively addresses the need for heightened engagement in the Eastern Mediterranean and highlights the myriad security challenges, including territorial disputes, migration issues, and the competition for energy resources, it lacks a clear actionable framework for mitigating the discord between these two member states.
- Topic:
- NATO, International Security, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Greece, and Eastern Mediterranean
10. Net spills among NATO allies: Theory and empirical evidence from dynamic quantile connectedness
- Author:
- Panagiotis Palaios, Anna Triantafillou, and George Andrew Zombanakis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The paper draws on the economic theory of alliances to stress the importance of considering both benefits and costs arising from the 0interaction between member states of a military alliance in terms of defence expenditure on equipment. We expand the theory of alliances to incorporate the spills that stem from the obligations of each ally by introducing the notion of spill-outs and net spills, the latter measured as the difference between spill-in and spill-out effects. To assess the net spills contribution of each of the members to the alliance, we test for empirical evidence of net spills among a group of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies, applying time-varying Dynamic Quantile Connectedness analysis. The results that stem from our model considering the cost of spill-outs suggest that there are strong incentives among the allies for free-riding behaviour. In line with our theoretical model, our empirical analysis shows that it is only during crisis period that NATO member-states contribute actively to the alliance, something that has become increasingly clear since the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- Topic:
- NATO, International Security, Alliance, Economic Security, Defense Spending, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America