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61. The EU’s military engagement in Central Mediterranean – Migrant crisis and arms embargo intertwined

Author:
Vojtěch Freitag
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In the new EU Monitor Vojtěch Freitag writes about the ongoing EU’s military mission in the Central Mediterranean Sea called EUNAVFOR MED Irini. The article attempts to overview, critically reflect and present recommendations for the issues connected to it. Notwithstanding EU’s efforts, Sophia had not achieved the prevention ofillicit arms flows. In fact, it could not possibly be successful as the sea is not the only entry point into the vast country. Failure of the embargo has been recently confirmed also by the UN expert panel on Libya, which claimed “total ineffectiveness”. However, the termination of the operation was caused by concerns deemed of greater importance to the member-states than the arms embargo –the question of rescuing and disembarking migrants, an aspect fitting into general EU’s immigration policy debate.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Migration, Military Affairs, and Refugee Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean

62. Taking Stock of the Arms Trade Treaty: Universalization

Author:
Rachel Stohl
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The rate at which states are joining the 2013 Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) has naturally slowed. Universalization efforts have been carried out through a variety of different frameworks, both within the ATT regime—including the Working Group on Treaty Universalization (WGTU), a sponsorship programme and the Voluntary Trust Fund (VTF)—and by the United Nations, regional organizations and civil society. Universalization of the ATT contributes to the development of standards and norms in the international arms trade. If a party flouts the treaty’s require­ments, it undermines the treaty and makes universal­ization less meaningful. Thus, universalization means both expanding the number of states parties and ensuring that they live up to their obligations. This is one of a series of five papers that are being produced as part of a wider project aimed at taking stock of specific aspects of the ATT—its scope, the application of the risk-assessment criteria, its processes and forums, universalization efforts, and international assistance to support ATT implementation.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Arms Trade, and Risk
Political Geography:
Global Focus

63. Taking Stock of the Arms Trade Treaty: Scope

Author:
Paul Holtom
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The scope of the 2013 Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) refers to the conventional arms, ammunition/munitions, and parts and components that are covered by the treaty. ATT stakeholders are providing guidance and assistance for states parties to implement provisions on scope contained in Articles 2–5 of the Treaty. ATT Article 17(4) provides for the Conference of States Parties (CSP) to review the treaty’s scope to take into account relevant technological developments in the field of conventional arms. Now is an opportune moment to explore mechanisms to review the scope of the Treaty to keep it in line with, at least, the coverage of the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms (UNROCA). This is one of a series of five papers that are being produced as part of a wider project aimed at taking stock of specific aspects of the ATT—its scope, the application of the risk-assessment criteria, its processes and forums, universalization efforts, and international assistance to support ATT implementation.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

64. Taking Stock of the Arms Trade Treaty: Processes and Forums

Author:
Roberto Dondisch
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The 2013 Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) has a number of attached processes and forums that are aimed at enabling and promoting both the effective implementation of the treaty by states parties and its further universalization. In order to operate effectively these processes and forums need to be designed and operated in ways that reflect the ATT’s unique status as a trade treaty with a core humanitarian objective. The ATT states parties must consider the current support architecture and the challenges that it faces. These include effectively transitioning from a negotiation to an implementation framework; avoiding inherent risks to the treaty’s objective; implementing the risk-mitigation clause; maintaining the balance between exporters and importers; preserving transparency; and implementing possible good practice options. This is one of a series of five papers that are being produced as part of a wider project aimed at taking stock of specific aspects of the ATT—its scope, the application of the risk-assessment criteria, its processes and forums, universalization efforts, and international assistance to support ATT implementation.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

65. Taking Stock of the Arms Trade Treaty: International Assistance to Support Implementation

Author:
Giovanna Maletta and Sibylle Bauer
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The provision of international assistance is key to achieving the effective implementation of the 2013 Arms Trade Treaty (ATT). Assistance instruments include the ATT’s own Voluntary Trust Fund (VTF), mechanisms established by the United Nations and the European Union (EU), and efforts by other international and regional organizations and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The donors, implementers and ATT states parties should reflect on the role played by the assistance instruments in improving implementation of the treaty. To strengthen the role of international assistance in supporting implementation of the ATT, the ATT Secretariat and ATT-related processes and assistance programmes should enhance the sustainability and effectiveness of assistance efforts and further improve coordination. This is one of a series of five papers that are being produced as part of a wider project aimed at taking stock of specific aspects of the ATT—its scope, the application of the risk-assessment criteria, its processes and forums, universalization efforts, and international assistance to support ATT implementation.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

66. Taking Stock of the Arms Trade Treaty: Application of the Risk-assessment Criteria

Author:
Paul Beijer
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
A central element of the 2013 Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) is the risk-assessment criteria in articles 6 and 7. The flexibility in the wording of the two articles has required efforts to reach common interpretations of the criteria in order to lessen the scope for different assessment outcomes. These efforts, as well as improved and aligned national practices, will enhance the treaty’s long-term impact. While there are limits to how far some states parties will want to go, there is a genuine preparedness to look at ways to increase the effectiveness of the ATT that should be encouraged and supported. This is one of a series of five papers that are being produced as part of a wider project aimed at taking stock of specific aspects of the ATT—its scope, the application of the risk-assessment criteria, its processes and forums, universalization efforts, and international assistance to support ATT implementation.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, Arms Trade, and Risk
Political Geography:
Global Focus

67. Mitigating Humanitarian Impact in a Complex Sanctions Environment: The European Union and the Sanctions Regimes against Iran

Author:
Keith A. Preble and Kolja Brockmann
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Iran is one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world. The combination of sanctions on Iran imposed by the United States, the United Nations and the European Union (EU) in response to, among others, nuclear and ballistic missile activities and human rights violations provides for a sanctions environment that is highly complex and difficult to navigate for exporters, financial institutions and humanitarian actors. Particularly in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, there is renewed attention to the humanitarian impact of sanctions, especially in the case of Iran which became one of the flashpoints of the pandemic. The focus of this paper is on the array of overlapping sanctions and the mitigation of humanitarian impact, with a particular focus on EU sanctions policy and instruments. The paper outlines key milestones and phases in the imposition of sanctions on Iran by the three main sanctioning actors, the USA, the UN and the EU, thus demonstrating the complexity and the at times coordinated or contradictory nature of the different sanctions. It then explores the humanitarian impact of sanctions on Iran by discussing several illustrative indicators and the impact of sanctions on the provision of international humanitarian aid. The paper reviews existing mechanisms to mitigate the humanitarian impact of sanctions and how they could be improved. In the context of the sanctions of Iran, but also beyond, the paper finds that there is a clear need to further strengthen compliance, enforcement and coordination of EU sanctions, including in the context of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. It concludes by providing specific recommendations for the EU and its member states on improving the effective use of sanctions and reducing their humanitarian impact, including through strengthening key instruments and assessment processes, better coordination with the USA and more engagement with humanitarian actors.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Sanctions, European Union, Arms Trade, Disarmament, and Exports
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

68. Additive Manufacturing for Missiles and Other Uncrewed Delivery Systems: Challenges for the Missile Technology Control Regime

Author:
Kolja Brockmann
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Additive manufacturing (AM) has become an attractive production technology for the aerospace sector, particularly in the area of missiles, space launch vehicles and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs). Modern AM techniques—often referred to as 3D printing—create objects from feedstock materials such as metallic powders by building them up from the first to the last layer in an iterative process of depositing and fusing layers of material. AM is being used to produce a growing range of components for missiles and UAVs. AM has been recognized to pose a growing proliferation threat and a challenge to existing export controls. The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) has been discussing AM since at least 2013 and seeks to update and harmonize the export controls of the participating states to mitigate the risks posed by AM and ensure the effectiveness of export controls. The export controls prescribed by the MTCR and some of the other regimes already create controls on AM. However, many of these controls are based on overlaps rather than control list items that cover AM by design and may not ensure adequate coverage. This report provides a short introduction to modern AM techniques and describes a range of specific applications of AM in missiles and other delivery systems. It discusses the proliferation risks posed by AM and the engineering and organizational considerations that have to be weighed against the technical capabilities of AM. It analyses the application of export controls to AM, primarily under the MTCR, by discussing controls on AM production equipment; feedstock materials; transfers of technology and technical assistance; and catch-all controls. The report concludes by outlining key measures through which the MTCR could strengthen its efforts to address AM and the proliferation risks and challenges to export controls it poses.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Science and Technology, Arms Trade, and Disarmament
Political Geography:
Global Focus

69. South Asia’s Nuclear Challenges: Interlocking Views from India, Pakistan, China, Russia and the United States

Author:
Petr Topychkanov and Lora Saalman
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This report provides an overview of views on nuclear postures and escalation affecting South Asia, based on 119 research interviews conducted in 2020 with military, nuclear, political and regional experts from India, Pakistan, China, Russia and the United States. The publication also builds on the findings from a virtual workshop that SIPRI hosted on 8 and 9 December 2020 on ‘Nuclear challenges in South Asia: Views from India, Pakistan, China, Russia, Australia, New Zealand and the USA’. These discussions revealed a variety of interlocking insights on such issues as no first use, lowered nuclear thresholds, conventional and nuclear entanglement and emerging technologies that are shaping strategic stability. The publication consists of five country-focused sections that explore nuclear postures, strategic technologies and escalatory risks, as well as conclusions that offer building blocks for the next steps on engagement. This report was prepared in the framework of the SIPRI project Assessing Nuclear Deterrence Risks and Challenges in South Asia, generously supported by the German Federal Foreign Office.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Power, and Disarmament
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, China, South Asia, India, and United States of America

70. New Technologies and Nuclear Disarmament: Outlining a Way Forward

Author:
Tytti Erästö
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This report sheds light on the impact of recent military-technological advancements on nuclear deterrence and disarmament. Noting that progress towards multilateral disarmament is hardly possible without prior and significant reductions in the largest nuclear weapon arsenals, the report views the resumption of bilateral arms control between Russia and the United States as the most important step towards disarmament at the present moment. It argues that these two countries should move away from their cold war era nuclear doctrines, which seek an ability to win nuclear wars, towards a policy of ‘minimal nuclear deterrence’, that is focused on deterring a nuclear attack. In line with doctrinal changes, further cuts in Russian and US nuclear stockpiles could be achieved by removing nuclear weapons from regional conflict dynamics, meaning that they would no longer serve as a deterrent against conventional aggression. Such a change would help to reduce nuclear risks without undermining regional deterrence, as each side already has robust conventional forces comprised of precision-strike weapons and other advanced military systems. At the same time, the report notes that progress towards nuclear disarmament would be complicated by long-range precision-strike weapons and strategic missile defences, which have raised the bar for credible nuclear deterrence by creating uncertainty about US adversaries’ second-strike capabilities. Lowering that bar and eventually reducing the perceived need for nuclear deterrence will require creative arms control diplomacy, including limits on strategic missile defences; stronger norms against both nuclear and conventional aggression; as well as a clear stigma against nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Disarmament
Political Geography:
Russia and United States of America