Publication Year: within 5 Years / Topic:

15801. Coping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending

Author:: Sebastian Horn, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Official (government-to-government) lending is much larger than commonly known, often surpassing total private cross-border capital flows, especially during disasters such as wars, financial crises and natural catastrophes. We assemble the first comprehensive long-run dataset of official international lending, covering 230,000 loans, grants and guarantees extended by governments, central banks, and multilateral institutions in the period 1790-2015. Historically, wars have been the main catalyst of government-to-government transfers. The scale of official credits granted in and around WW1 and WW2 was particularly large, easily surpassing the scale of total international bailout lending after the 2008 crash. During peacetime, development finance and financial crises are the main drivers of official cross-border finance, with official flows often stepping in when private flows retrench. In line with the predictions of recent theoretical contributions, we find that official lending increases with the degree of economic integration. In crises and disasters, governments help those countries to which they have greater trade and banking exposure, hoping to reduce the collateral damage to their own economies. Since the 2000s, official finance has made a sharp comeback, largely due to the rise of China as an international creditor and the return of central bank cross-border lending in times of stress, this time in the form of swap lines.
Topic:: Debt, International Political Economy, War, History, Financial Crisis, Trade, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15802. Assessing Asia: Sub-Saharan Africa Global Value Chain Linkages

Author:: Heiwai Tang, Douglas Zhihua Zeng, and Albert Zeufack
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper studies the relationship between Asia’s economic engagements in Africa and individual African nations’ participation in global value chains (GVC) over the past two decades. We find that while overall exports from Africa to Asia are still highly concentrated in resource-intensive sectors, a few African countries have exploited the emerging opportunities to diversify export portfolios through exporting to Asia. Each African nation has a distinct main trade partner in Asia, in contrast to the common view that China has become the dominant trade partner of most African nations. Using a panel data set for 46 African countries over 16 years from 2000 and 2015, we find that exports to Asia are positively correlated with exports to the rest of the world, suggesting that in contrast to trade diversion, trade with Asia complements exports to other countries. Asian economic engagement in the continent is associated with countries’ exports “moving up the value chain”, as measured by the upstreamness index proposed by Antras et al. (2012). However, such process was accompanied by a reduction in the length of their production chains, implying that fewer stages and countries are now involved in the production of exported goods.
Topic:: Development, International Political Economy, Natural Resources, Partnerships, Exports, Trade, Global Value Chains, and Data
Political Geography:: Africa, Asia, and Global Focus

15803. Extreme weather events and economic activity: The case of low water levels on the Rhine river

Author:: Martin Ademmer, Nils Jannsen, and Saskia Mösle
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: In this paper, we exploit exogenous variation in navigability of the Rhine river to analyze the impact of weather-related supply shocks on economic activity in Germany. Our analysis shows that low water levels lead to transportation disruptions that cause a significant and economically meaningful decrease of economic activity. In a month with 30 days of low water, industrial production in Germany declines by about 1 percent, ceteris paribus. Our analysis highlights the importance of extreme weather events for business cycle analysis and contributes to gauging the costs of extreme weather events in advanced economies. Furthermore, we provide a specific example for an idiosyncratic supply shock to a small sector that amplifies to an economically meaningful effect at the macroeconomic level.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Supply Chains, and Weather
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

15804. Comparative Advantage in (Non-)Routine Production

Author:: Liza Archanskaia, Johannes Van Biesebroeck, and Gerald Willmann
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We illustrate a new source of comparative advantage that is generated by countries’ different ability to adjust to technological change. Our model introduces substitution of workers in codifiable (routine) tasks with more efficient machines, a process extensively documented in the labor literature, into a canonical 2 × 2 × 2 Heckscher-Ohlin model. Our key hypothesis is that labor reallocation across tasks is subject to frictions, the importance of which varies by country. The arrival of capital-augmenting innovations triggers the movement of workers out of routine tasks, and countries with low labor market frictions become relatively abundant in non-routine labor. In the new equilibrium, more flexible countries specialize in producing goods that use non-routine labor more intensively. We document empirically that the ranking of countries with respect to the routine intensity of their exports is strongly related to labor market institutions and to cultural norms that influence adjustment to technological change, such as risk aversion or long-term orientation. The explanatory power of this mechanism for trade flows is especially strong for intra-EU trade.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Science and Technology, Innovation, Trade, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus and European Union

15805. IPR Policies and Membership in Standard Setting Organizations: A Social Network Analysis

Author:: Jiaming Jiang, Rajeev K. Goel, and Xingyuan Zhang
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Whereas technical standards and Standard Setting Organizations (SSOs) are omnipresent and essential to mass production and mass communications, relatively little is formally known about the propensity of firms to belong to certain SSOs. This paper uses a social network analysis technique to empirically analyze the behavior of market participants and their propensities to belong to SSOs. We concentrate our study on standard setting organizations features and their intellectual property rights (IPR) policies such as licensing rules, disclosure requirements, as well as the features of the decision process of standards. Using data on more than 1060 member firms as participants in 28 SSOs, we are able to uniquely graph the membership of firms in SSOs by highlighting some important characteristics. Finally, a multinomial logit regression analysis studies the propensities of firms to belong to four SSOs and member firms’ network communities.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Intellectual Property/Copyright, and Networks
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15806. Skills in African Labor Markets and Implications for Migration to Europe

Author:: Andreas Backhaus
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper assesses the potential for skilled labor migration from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe. It utilizes representative surveys from Ghana and Kenya to shed light on the quality and distribution of skills in the labor markets of these countries. Skills in both countries are found to be unevenly distributed, with significant parts of the labor force being essentially unskilled. Similarly designed surveys from France, Germany, and the UK further allow comparing skills and formal education between the African and the European countries. On average, the labor force in the sub-Saharan African countries is less skilled and less educated than the European labor force. Importantly, even at the same levels of formal education, workers in Ghana and Kenya are substantially less skilled than workers in Europe. The paper further considers a number of hypothetical scenarios for skilled labor migration from the African to the European countries. It is demonstrated that the European countries would have to recruit workers from the very top end of the African skill distribution to match European demands for skills. In turn, the average worker from the African labor markets would fit only into the low end of the European skill distribution where employment rates are low. Hence, more regular and skilled labor migration from African countries will unlikely be a remedy for skill shortages in Europe unless migrants are positively selected on their skills. In that case, however, additional opportunities for skilled labor migration would risk a brain drain from African countries that could harm economic development there. Improving the quality of education in sub-Saharan Africa on a broad scale remains indispensable for mutually beneficial migration between Africa and Europe.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Migration, Labor Issues, Migrant Workers, and Skilled Labor
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Europe, Ghana, and Sub-Saharan Africa

15807. Estimating the prevalence: Properties of the estimator regarding specificity and sensitivity of the underlying test

Author:: Jens Boysen-Hogrefe and Vincent Stamer
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We provide a calculation tool to assess the properties of a maximumlikelihood (ML) estimator that extrapolates the true prevalence of an infectious disease from a random sample. The tools allow the researcher to correct for the specificity and sensitivity of the underlying medical test, calculate the standard deviation of the estimator and to plan the needed sample size. This document explains the underlying methods of the calculation tools and provides instructions for their proper use. We apply an adaption of the epidemiological SEIR-model to show that ML-estimators from random sampling tests provide a more realistic rate of infection than common approaches.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, and Infectious Diseases
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15808. Labor force participation, job search effort and unemployment insurance in the laboratory

Author:: Wolfgang Lechthaler and Patrick Ring
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: How the provision of unemployment benefits affects employment and unemployment is a debated issue. In this paper, we aim at complementing theoretical and empirical contributions to this debate with a laboratory experiment: We simulate a job market with search effort and labor force participation decisions while varying the maximum length of unemployment benefit eligibility. Our results reveal two separable, opposing effects: Individuals within the labor force search with lower effort when unemployment benefits are extended. However, individuals are more likely to participate in the labor force and to actively search for a job. Concerning employment, the second effect dominates so that unemployment benefits raise employment.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Markets, Labor Issues, Employment, Unemployment, and Job Creation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15809. The dynamic impact of FX interventions on financial markets

Author:: Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth, and Tobias Stöhr
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions in the prevailing higher frequency approaches leaves a gap at horizons going beyond a few days. This is addressed by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Using Japanese data, we find that FX interventions significantly affect exchange rates, although the effect is smaller than in emerging markets, and this impact persists for up to a year. There is no major effect on interest rates, but stock prices increase in line with currency devaluation, in particular those of large (exporting) firms. The results qualitatively hold for US and UK interventions.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Exports, Data, and Models
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and United Kingdom

15810. Does the Belt and Road Initiative stimulate Chinese Exports? The Role of State-Owned Enterprises

Author:: Holger Görg and Haiou Mao
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper evaluates firms’ exporting responses to BRI and considers their heterogeneity in ownership types, product types, regional origin and trade mode. This is done by analyzing firm-product-destination level customs data from 2011 to 2015 in a gravity model framework. Our empirical results show that aggregate export behavior did not change significantly after BRI. However, ownership matters when evaluating firms’ reactions. SOEs increase their total exporting and average export value (the intensive margin) to BRI countries, while private domestic firms show no reaction to BRI at any margin. Further, our results on regional heterogeneity suggests that “open through the west”, i.e., boosting the development of western regions in China, did not appear to work in the short term. Our findings show clearly the implications of BRI’s impact from a firm level perspective.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Exports, Trade, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: China and Global Focus

15811. Urban Land Use Fragmentation and Human Wellbeing

Author:: Christine Bertram, Jan Goebel, Christian Krekel, and Katrin Rehdanz
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We study how urban land use fragmentation affects the subjective wellbeing of city residents. Therefore, we calculate fragmentation metrics based on the European Urban Atlas for 15,000 households in the German Socio-Economic Panel. Using random and fixed effects specifications, we find that fragmentation has little impact on wellbeing when aggregating over all land use types. Looking at particular land use types, however, we find that wellbeing is positively affected by lower average degrees of soil sealing, larger shares of vegetation, and a more heterogeneous configuration of medium and low density urban fabric, especially in areas with above average population density.
Topic:: Agriculture, Health, Natural Resources, Urban, Land, and Farming
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

15812. The US–China trade deal and its impact on China’s key trading partners

Author:: Sonali Chowdhry and Gabriel Felbermayr
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: The US–China Economic and Trade Agreement (ETA) entered into force on 14th February 2020, marking a new phase in their protracted trade and geopolitical rivalry. The ETA includes specific targets for increased Chinese imports of US goods and services, amounting to 200 bn USD over 2020 and 2021. The authors show that these purchase commitments can generate substantial trade diversion effects and market share shifts for China’s top trading partners. In manufacturing, Germany is likely to experience the greatest trade diversion effects in a number of industries such as vehicles (-1.28 bn USD), aircraft (-1.59 bn USD) and industrial machinery (-0.72 bn USD). Moreover, developing countries will be hit if China re-directs its imports towards US suppliers. E.g. Brazil could experience a reduction of 4.95 bn USD in soybeans exports to China in 2021 as a result of the ETA.
Topic:: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Exports, Trade, Trade Policy, and Imports
Political Geography:: United States and China

15813. Negotiating from the Margins: Women’s Participation in Colombian Peace Processes (1982–2016)

Author:: Nina Chaparro and Margarita Martínez
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: In this book, we offer an examination of and recommendations for women’s participation in Colombia’s peace processes, with an eye toward strengthening spaces for participation and, in doing so, ensuring that the peace accord is ultimately translated into long-term social pacts that are inclusive and committed to justice and equity.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Peacekeeping, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:: Colombia

15814. Data Feast: Enterprises and Personal Data in Latin America

Author:: Vivian Newman-Pont, Daniel Ospina-Celis, and Juan Carlos Upegui
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: This book addresses the multiple challenges of this new type of system. It seeks to show how, in the digital age, companies pursue the massive collection of personal data and how they deal with their power of information accumulation while also trying to push forward their business strategy. In the case of the Internet giants—Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple, and Microsoft (GAFAM)—they now possess an ability to reconfigure the behaviour of individuals, clients, and citizens globally. Specifically, this book analyzes the privacy policies of selected companies that use data-driven business models in four Latin American countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. It also assesses how prepared these states are to protect their citizens against the exploitation of their personal data and to face the legal and technical challenges of Big Data in an ever-changing transnational context, and with actors more powerful than nation states.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Internet, Data, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Chile

15815. Beyond the Binary Understanding of Masculinities: Displaced Syrian Refugee Men Living with Disability and Chronic Illness in Jordan

Author:: Aitemad Muhanna-Matar
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), Georgetown University in Qatar
Abstract:: This article analyzes the dynamics of renegotiating masculinities among displaced Syrian men with disabilities in Jordan. The article draws its analysis on the personal narratives of four Syrian men who have experienced disability and chronic illness caused by the Syrian war. Their personal narratives challenge the binary and singular understanding of masculinities in the literature and the gender discourse used by international humanitarian aid organizations, which tend to associate masculine identity with social embodiment. This discourse also perceives the marginalized and subordinated masculinities as either complicit to hegemonic masculinity with its traits of violence, or emasculated by physical disability. The personal narratives provide evidence that disabled men do not completely disavow the normative image of masculinity through loss of their physical strength. Rather, they shape their unique masculinities by composing diverse elements of masculinities that they experienced throughout their life. Their emerging masculinities alter masculine normative traits of domination and aggression with emotional and moral traits of loving, caring, reciprocity, collective responsibility, democracy, and justice. Yet, the emerging composite masculinities of disabled men are still drawn upon the moral virtues of patriarchy.
Topic:: Refugees, Disability, Mental Health, Masculinity, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Jordan

15816. A Study and Analysis of the Treatment of Mexican Unaccompanied Minors by Customs and Border Protection

Author:: Kiera Coulter, Samantha Sabo, Daniel E. Martinez, Katelyn Chisholm, Kelsey Gonzalez, Edrick Villalobos, Diego Garcia, Taylor Levy, and Jeremy Slack
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: The routine human rights abuses and due process violations of unaccompanied alien children (UAC) by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) have contributed to a mounting humanitarian and legal crisis along the US–Mexico border. In the United States, the treatment of UAC is governed by laws, policies, and standards drawn from the Flores Settlement, the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act (TVPRA), and CBP procedures and directives, which are intended to ensure UAC’s protection, well-being, and ability to pursue relief from removal, such as asylum. As nongovernmental organizations and human rights groups have documented, however, CBP has repeatedly violated these legal standards and policies, and subjected UAC to abuses and rights violations. This article draws from surveys of 97 recently deported Mexican UAC, which examine their experiences with US immigration authorities. The study finds that Mexican UAC are detained in subpar conditions, are routinely not screened for fear of return to their home countries or for human trafficking, and are not sufficiently informed about the deportation process. The article recommends that CBP should take immediate steps to improve the treatment of UAC, that CBP and other entities responsible for the care of UAC be monitored to ensure their compliance with US law and policy, and that Mexican UAC be afforded the same procedures and protection under the TVPRA as UAC from noncontiguous states.
Topic:: Human Rights, Migration, Border Control, Children, Youth, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15817. Implementation of the Global Compact on Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration: A Whole-of-Society Approach

Author:: Kevin Appleby
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: The Global Compact on Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration (GCM) provides a blueprint for nations to manage migration flows through multilateral cooperation. Nations are best served by partnering with a wide range of societal actors to implement the objectives of the GCM. Such civil society actors may include non-profit organizations, faith-based groups, the private sector, trade unions, and academia, among other relevant stakeholders. Each of these actors brings unique strengths to the implementation of the GCM, filling gaps in the care and protection of migrants. They perform tasks that governments are unable or unwilling to undertake, especially in the area of irregular migration. A “whole-of-society” approach is the most effective method for managing migration humanely and in concert with the rule of law.
Topic:: Civil Society, Migration, Non State Actors, Humanitarian Crisis, and Non-profits
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15818. Statelessness in the United States: A Study to Estimate and Profile the US Stateless Population

Author:: Donald Kerwin, Daniela Alulema, Michael Nicholson, and Robert Warren
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: In October 2017, the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) initiated a study to map the stateless population in the United States. This study sought to: Develop a methodology to estimate the US stateless population; Provide provisional estimates and profiles of persons who are potentially stateless or potentially at risk of statelessness in the United States; Create a research methodology that encouraged stateless persons to come forward and join a growing network of persons committed to educating the public on and pursuing solutions to this problem; and Establish an empirical basis for public and private stakeholders to develop services, programs, and policy interventions to prevent and reduce statelessness (UNHCR 2014g, 6), and to safeguard the rights of stateless persons (UNHCR 2014d). This report describes a unique methodology to produce estimates and set forth the characteristics of US residents who are potentially stateless or potentially at risk of statelessness. The methodology relies on American Community Survey (ACS) data from the US Census Bureau, supplemented by very limited administrative data on stateless refugees and asylum seekers. [1] As part of the study, CMS developed extensive, well-documented profiles of non–US citizen residents who are potentially stateless or potentially at risk of statelessness. It then used these profiles to query ACS data to develop provisional estimates and determine the characteristics of these populations. The report finds that the population in the United States that is potentially stateless or potentially at risk of statelessness is larger and more diverse than previously assumed, albeit with the caveat that severe data limitations make it impossible to provide precise estimates of this population. Stateless determinations require individual screening, which the study could not undertake. Individuals deemed potentially stateless or potentially at risk of statelessness in this report may in fact have been able to secure nationality in their home countries or in third countries. They may also be on a path to citizenship in the United States, although nobody in CMS’s estimates had yet to obtain US citizenship. According to CMS’s analysis, roughly 218,000 US residents are potentially stateless or potentially at risk of statelessness. These groups live in all 50 states,[2] with the largest populations in California (20,600), New York (18,500), Texas (15,200), Ohio (13,200), Minnesota (11,200), Illinois (8,600), Pennsylvania (8,200), Wisconsin (7,300), Georgia (6,600), and Virginia (6,500). The report recommends ways to improve data collection and, thus, develop better estimates in the future. It also lifts up the voices and challenges of stateless persons, and outlines steps to reduce statelessness and safeguard the rights of stateless persons in the United States. As it stands, the paucity of reliable federal data on the stateless, the lack of a designated path to legal status for them under US law, and the indifference of government agencies contribute to the vulnerability and isolation of these populations.
Topic:: Migration, Citizenship, Humanitarian Crisis, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15819. More than a Wall: The Rise and Fall of US Asylum and Refugee Policy

Author:: Ruth Ellen Wasem
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: This article uses a multidisciplinary approach — analyzing historical sources, refugee and asylum admissions data, legislative provisions, and public opinion data — to track the rise and fall of the US asylum and refugee policy. It shows that there has always been a political struggle between people who advocate for a generous refugee and asylum system and those who oppose it. Today, the flexible system of protecting refugees and asylees, established in 1980, is giving way to policies that weaponize them. It offers a historical analysis of US refugee and asylum policies, as well as xenophobic and nativist attitudes toward refugees. It places Trump administration refugee policies in three categories: those that abandon longstanding US legal principles and policies, most notably non-refoulement and due process; those that block the entry of refugees and asylees; and those that criminalize foreign nationals who attempt to seek asylum in the United States. The article concludes with an analysis of public opinion research to square the growing public support for refugees and asylees shown in polling data with the subgroup popularity of Donald Trump’s harsh xenophobic rhetoric and policies. These seemingly contradictory trends are consistent with research on right-wing populism. It argues that the restoration of generous humanitarian policies requires robust civic engagement and steadfast legislative efforts.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Humanitarian Intervention, Asylum, and Migrant Workers
Political Geography:: United States of America and North America

15820. Revisiting the Refugee–Host Relationship in Nakivale Refugee Settlement: A Dialogue with the Oxford Refugee Studies Centre

Author:: Ingunn Bjorkhaug
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Uganda has long promoted refugee self-reliance as a sustainable livelihood strategy with progressive land-allocation and free-movement-for-work policies. Framed as a dialogue with Oxford University Refugee Studies Centre (“the Centre”), this article explores sustainable solutions that benefit refugees as well as the host populations that receive them. It explores the self-reliance opportunities that depend on the transnational, national, and local markets in which refugees participate. It acknowledges the Centre’s substantial work and welcomes its focus on economic outcomes. For Nakivale Refugee Settlement in Uganda, however, the discussion of “refugee economies” may not be complete without problematizing the effects on the host populations living alongside the refugees. Based on qualitative data collected at Nakivale in 2013 (concurrent with the Centre’s fieldwork), the article discusses the Centre’s market-based approach to refugee economies by emphasizing four essential considerations
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Settlements, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

15821. International Migration amid a World in Crisis

Author:: Joseph Chamie
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: This article comprehensively examines international migration trends and policies in light of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. It begins by reviewing migration developments throughout the past 60 years. It then examines pandemic-related migration trends and policies. It concludes with a series of general observations and insights that should guide local, national, regional, and international policymakers, moving forward. In particular, it proposes the following: National measures to combat COVID-19 should include international migrants, irrespective of their legal status, and should complement regional and international responses. Localities, nations, and the international community should prioritize the safe return and reintegration of migrants. States and international agencies should plan for the gradual re-emergence of large-scale migration based on traditional push and pull forces once a COVID-19 vaccine is widely available. States should redouble their efforts to reconcile national border security concerns and the basic human rights of migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers. States and the international community should accelerate their efforts to address climate-related migration. States of origin, transit, and destination should directly address the challenges of international migration and not minimize them.
Topic:: Migration, Governance, Borders, Public Health, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15822. Caught in the Crossfire: Challenges to Migrant Protection in the Yemeni and Libyan Conflicts

Author:: Danielle Flanagan
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: In spite of the prevailing security dynamics in Yemen and Libya, both states continue to serve as areas of transit along some of the world’s largest mixed migration routes, leaving migrants caught in the crossfire of the two conflicts. This article examines the legal framework governing the protection of migrants in armed conflict under international humanitarian and human rights law. It also identifies two adverse incentives produced by the conflict situations that impede the exercise of these legal protections: (1) profits derived from migrant smuggling and trafficking, and (2) the use of migrants to support armed groups. In the absence of stable conditions in Yemen and Libya, individuals have little reason to respect international legal protections and discontinue migrant abuse connected with the lucrative businesses of smuggling and trafficking. The intractable nature of the two conflicts has also led to the strategic use of migrants as armed support, and more specifically as combatants, weapons transports, and human shields. Given these realities, the article outlines several recommendations to address the issue of migrant abuse in conflict. It recommends that states, particularly those neighboring Yemen and Libya, strengthen regular migration pathways to help reduce the number of migrants transiting through active conflict zones. It further advises that the international community increase the cost of non-compliance to international humanitarian law through the use of accountability mechanisms and through strategic measures, including grants of reciprocal respect to armed groups that observe protections accorded to migrants in conflict situations.
Topic:: Security, Migration, Human Trafficking, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, Libya, and Yemen

15823. The Household Financial Losses Triggered by an Immigration Arrest, and How State and Local Government Can Most Effectively Protect Their Constituents

Author:: Geoffrey Alan Boyce and Sarah Lanius
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Through a survey of 125 long-term resident households in Pima County, Arizona, this study finds that an immigration arrest costs each household an average of more than $24,000. These costs accumulate through the value of assets seized and not recovered, out-of-pocket costs for hiring an attorney, immigration bond, and other expenses involved in supporting an immediate family member as they navigate the immigration court system. But they also include lost income due to disruptions to employment resulting from the arrest, and a physical inability to work while in detention, appearing in court, and immediately following deportation. In this article, we discuss how, when measured at the scale of the household, these financial costs fail to discriminate according to immigration or citizenship status, and accumulate to affect issues of poverty, education, housing security, health and development, and generational wealth inequality — all matters of sustained interest to state and local government. In the second half of the article, we draw on our research findings to evaluate various policies that states, counties, and municipalities can implement to mitigate these financial burdens while promoting the overall well-being of their constituents.
Topic:: Migration, Immigration, Governance, Local, and Police
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15824. Sorry, but the Virus Shows Why There Won’t Be Global Action on Climate Change

Author:: Jason Bordoff
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted daily life, caused widespread sickness and fatalities, and sent the global economy careening toward a depression. Governments have responded by taking unprecedented steps to shut down entire cities, ban travel, and isolate nations—extreme measures that are giving hope to climate activists that similarly ambitious policies might be possible to address global warming, which many consider a similar existential threat. Yet that would be the wrong lesson to draw, as the very same barriers preventing an effective COVID-19 response continue to keep climate change action out of reach. Scientists warn that the impacts of COVID-19 will rise sharply over time, threatening the lives of vast numbers of people, particularly those most vulnerable. They warn that climate change, too, will severely harm many over time, albeit not with the same rapidity. If governments and companies can take extreme actions to cancel sports seasons, shut down workplaces, and restrict movement, surely they can take similarly drastic steps to change how we produce and consume energy?
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15825. Saudi-Russia oil war is a game theory masterstroke

Author:: Antoine Halff
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On the face of it, the idea of Saudi Arabia and Russia starting an oil price war in the middle of a global pandemic is as dumb as it gets. From a game theory perspective, it is a masterstroke. Analysts have called the breakdown of Opec+ and the lifting of the supply cuts that kept the oil market balanced in the last two years anything from a spectacular blunder to collective suicide. A new model of the oil market led by the inventors of mean-field game theory, Fields Medal laureate Pierre-Louis Lions and Jean Michel Lasry, suggests otherwise.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

15826. Reconsidering US Sanctions Policy Amid the Coronavirus Crisis and the Oil Market Crash

Author:: Richard Nephew
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: For energy markets, the profound economic disruptions caused by the coronavirus have broken the arrangements of the OPEC+ oil exporters to limit production, as Russia and Saudi Arabia failed to agree on production caps. Oil prices plunged as producers ramped up output, made worse by the demand shock created by the spread of Covid-19 and resulting plunging global economic activity as countries have sought to cope with the widespread infection and mortality. The global economic shocks and humanitarian crises have left US sanctions policy in a deeply uncomfortable spot. The United States has prioritized using sanctions as a means of creating leverage for resolving myriad foreign policy crises, arguing in part that using sanctions is a more humane option than the alternatives. The United States has long argued that without sanctions, some problems would either get far worse, with their own unpleasant consequences (such as human rights violations, regional aggression, and acts of terrorism), or would be met by US military force instead. Though some would disagree with the notion that sanctions are ever moral or just, it is on this basis—taken in combination with the presence of humanitarian exceptions to sanctions—that US policymakers across the political spectrum have asserted that their approach is appropriate and consistent with humanitarian values.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Sanctions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15827. A Saudi-U.S.-Russia Oil Deal Is Not a Good Idea

Author:: Christof Ruhl
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Oil markets are sending confusing signals at a time when more confusion is the last thing anyone needs. When Russia walked out on OPEC+ rather than contribute to more output cuts, Saudi Arabia turned on the crude taps. Whatever Riyadh’s intention, this “price war” was quickly made meaningless by the impact of the new coronavirus on global oil demand. The price collapse has been beyond anything anyone could have imagined. Now, storage room for crude is becoming scarce. Analysts warn darkly that plunging prices may threaten global economic stability. Equities follow the oil price news. Everyone seems to agree that prices should stop falling; and yet no one seems to argue that a very low oil price is exactly what the world’s economy needs to recover. The combination of price war and pandemic is also creating strange bedfellows. Some American shale producers are advocating that their country blocks Saudi oil imports, others want to talk to OPEC. President Donald Trump’s government has expressed an interest in cooperating on global oil supplies with Saudi Arabia and Russia; it’s nudging OPEC+ to reconvene, or an even wider group of producers to meet. Could we be witnessing the emergence of an unholy alliance of Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S., to “manage volatility,” and incidentally shore up the price of oil?
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

15828. 5 Reasons Why a Global Agreement to Prop Up Oil Prices Won’t Work

Author:: Jason Bordoff
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: In April 1986, U.S. Vice President George H.W. Bush traveled to Saudi Arabia with a request for King Fahd, the country’s ruler at the time: Please raise the price of oil. After falling around 60 percent over the course of a few months, cheap oil was becoming a “two-edged sword for America,” Bush explained. Consumers might enjoy low prices at the gas pump, but evaporating revenues for U.S. oil producers undermined America’s own oil supply, and thus its national security. That was the last time the White House publicly sought more expensive oil—until now. U.S. President Donald Trump has been pushing Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut output in the hopes that less crude on the market will raise oil prices, which have fallen by two-thirds since the start of the year. A low oil price threatens an already teetering U.S. shale oil sector with a wave of bankruptcies and job losses. All eyes are therefore on OPEC and its allies, which will meet by videoconference on Thursday to discuss the way forward—followed by an emergency meeting of G-20 energy ministers on Friday, where the United States will be represented as well. It was at the last meeting of OPEC and key non-OPEC producers in Vienna on March 6 that Russia refused to go along with a Saudi proposal for deeper production cuts. The subsequent surge in Saudi supply set off a vicious price war that has seen the price of oil briefly fall below $20 a barrel.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and OPEC
Political Geography:: Middle East and Persian Gulf

15829. Boosting ESG Finance for the Post-Covid-19 World

Author:: Mauricio Cardenas and Juan Jose Guzman
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: he novel coronavirus crisis has increased awareness about the need for sustainable and responsible investment. Once the spread of the virus is effectively contained, through testing and isolation, the world will focus on the recovery phase. But it should not be a return to business as usual. A successful recovery strategy should combine the need to restore income and economic activity while at the same time preventing another catastrophe resulting from the buildup of economic and financial vulnerabilities and policy mistakes (commonly known as white swans). As we enter what could likely be the worst recession since the Great Depression, the level of awareness about the costs of ignoring the physical limits to economic growth will likely increase. This crisis is revealing how unprepared and vulnerable our socio-economic system is to physical shocks. As opposed to financial shocks, like the ones that caused the global financial crisis over a decade ago, physical shocks originate from ecological and social constraints that, when violated, generate an economic collapse. Thanks to advancements in the natural and social sciences, we are now in a better position to understand their underlying causes, and in some cases assess their likelihood. Mitigating this class of tail-risks is not just possible, it has never been more relevant and urgent. One effective way to do that is to allocate capital intelligently. Although insufficient alone, the use of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) finance is one way to ensure that the post-Covid-19 period does not breed another such experience. Greater focus on sustainable investing, once some normalcy is restored, can reduce the chances that a new physical shock develops into another global crisis.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15830. Under a Cloud: The Future of Middle East Gas Demand

Author:: Robin Mills
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: During the early years of the 21st century, the Middle East emerged as a fast-growing center not just of natural gas production and exports but also of demand. Including Egypt, total growth in annual demand from 2000 to 2017 was greater than any region except Asia, a feat more surprising when considering the region’s relatively small population and economy. That’s about to change, however. After two decades of rapid expansion of natural gas consumption in the Middle East, growth should drop through 2035 due to four factors: improved efficiency, higher gas prices, slower economic growth, and alternative generation. Demand growth was driven by low, subsidized gas prices intended to spur economic growth, encourage energy-intensive industrialization, and share some benefits with the local population. But budget deficits and unsustainably rising domestic energy consumption have encouraged regional governments to cut subsidies and introduce efficiency policies, particularly since the fall in oil prices in late 2014. Industrial demand growth is also poised to fall as the Middle East’s key competitive advantage was its low energy and feedstock cost. The analysis undertaken in this paper to project future gas demand in the Middle East yields significantly lower estimates than forecasts by a number of international bodies (IEA, GECF, BP, ExxonMobil), especially post-2030.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Trade
Political Geography:: Middle East

15831. Columbia Global Energy Dialogue: Natural Gas Flaring Workshop Summary

Author:: Marianne Kah
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The rapid expansion in tight oil production with its associated natural gas has made the United States the fourth largest source of flared gas in the world. The waste, emissions, and pollution caused by this flaring threatens not only the environment and human health but, ultimately, the license to operate for oil and natural gas companies. Responding effectively to the challenge of flaring requires technically and economically sound solutions that also enjoy political credibility and support. To be most credible, solutions for flaring need to be developed through open and transparent processes that provide for candid and constructive engagement by a diverse group of stakeholders. In January 2020, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and the Energy Institute of the University of Texas at Austin gathered senior executives from the US oil and natural gas industry; current and former state government regulators; technical, market, and academic experts; and non-governmental organization (NGO) representatives with expertise in this topic for a workshop under the Chatham House Rule to discuss challenges and potential solutions to gas flaring, primarily in the Permian Basin. The gas flaring workshop focused on trends in gas flaring and greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, flaring and public policy, the disconnect between production growth and midstream infrastructure capacity, best practices and technological solutions for minimizing flaring, and regulatory and other solutions. Participants identified challenges to tackling flaring in the Permian, including poor data quality, the disconnect between the start of associated gas production and the availability of pipelines and other takeaway capacity, and the competition gas faces in the important Texas and California markets from lower-emission energy sources, and from coal in Texas. Participants also discussed potential solutions to these and other Permian flaring challenges.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Natural Resources, and Gas
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15832. The 2020 Oil Crash’s Unlikely Winner: Saudi Arabia

Author:: Jason Bordoff
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: With 4 billion people around the world under lockdown as the coronavirus pandemic grows, demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and other petroleum products is in freefall, as are oil prices. The price of a barrel of crude has been so low in the United States that sellers recently had to pay people to take it off their hands. As a result, oil-dependent economies are reeling. In the United States, the largest oil producer in the world, the number of rigs drilling for oil has plummeted 50 percent in just two months, almost 40 percent of oil and gas producers could be insolvent within the year, and 220,000 oil workers are projected to lose their jobs. Around the world, petrostates from Nigeria to Iraq to Kazakhstan are struggling and their currencies tanking. Some, like Venezuela, face an economic and social abyss. While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, however, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Gas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

15833. The Impact of Covid-19 on LNG Supplies

Author:: Erin Blanton
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The global LNG market, like most commodities markets, has been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic. The ensuing demand collapse came after a warm Northern hemisphere winter that left the global market oversupplied, and now prices for spot LNG cargoes are expected to remain low well into 2021. As market watchers search for clues as to how and when demand may recover, the coronavirus could actually bring forward and intensify longer-term tightening of the LNG market by creating conditions that do not favor additional investments in LNG projects. Already, lockdowns have slowed construction on projects in the works and companies are delaying final investment decisions (FIDs) on potential LNG supply projects by several years. The global LNG market could face a supply shortfall in a few years, a scenario that seemed unlikely at the start of 2020 when proposed projects with 186 million tons of capacity were in the pipeline. The ability of the oil and gas industry to recover from the impacts of coronavirus will have a long-term effect on companies’ potential to secure the financing required for multibillion-dollar investments in LNG supply. In addition to the 359 million tons (MT) of existing global LNG supply, there is over 100 MT of supply under construction and expected online by 2025. Some 30 MT of that supply was expected over the next 18 months, but the timing now appears in doubt.[1] These factors will create additional pressure on the LNG industry, which was already facing difficult questions, including how natural gas will fit into global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and ongoing trade relations between the US and China.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Gas, Pandemic, COVID-19, and LNG
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15834. The Impact of Covid-19 on Global Supply Chains and Sanctions

Author:: Richard Nephew
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The coronavirus outbreak has once again placed a spotlight on global supply chains, particularly those that are involved in the fabrication of medicines, medical equipment, and vaccines. Right now, much of the discussion around these supply chains is in the arena of high-level politics. Observers and officials of a protectionist bent—such as Peter Navarro, a trade adviser to Donald Trump—have used the occasion to emphasize that “if we learn anything from this crisis, [it is that] never again should we have to depend on the rest of the world for our essential medicines and counter-measures.” Others have argued instead that this is why protectionism is inherently counterproductive and dangerous. Global supply chains are likely to leave the realm of elite debate if and when the effects are felt more directly by consumers and in visible ways, such as the shortage of fresh fruits or vegetables. The result will be political pressure on leaders around the world to reduce national exposure to international trade, perhaps not just in areas associated with coronavirus response and mitigation. Underscoring this point, on 1 May, the Trump Administration issued an Executive Order that restricts the procurement of components and equipment for the U.S. “bulk-power system,” arguing that “unrestricted” trade in these goods “augments the ability of foreign adversaries to create and exploit vulnerabilities in bulk-power system electric equipment, with potentially catastrophic effects.” Setting aside completely whether investing the effort in deglobalizing supply chains is sound or sensible, moves to do so will have important effects on global economic statecraft. States that presently have an outsized advantage in the use of such tools—the United States in particular—may find that shifts away from global supply chains are damaging to their ability to use economic leverage, especially sanctions. States that are more vulnerable to these tools, on the other hand, may find their exposure to sanctions reduced, alongside lost advantages from international trade and business; in essence, less reliance on international supply chains could do the work of sanctions.
Topic:: Sanctions, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15835. Why the United States Should Remain Engaged on Nuclear Power: Climate Change and Air Pollution

Author:: Matt Bowen
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Nuclear energy has shown much promise and faced considerable challenges since its origins in the mid-20th century. While the United States drove the early charge for safe nuclear power around the globe, its leadership has waned in recent decades. US reactors now under construction—following no orders for such plants in the United States for several decades—have gone well over planned budgets and schedules. And while the United States was once the leading international supplier of reactors, other countries have since stepped forward to fill that role. Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, as part of its wider work on nuclear energy, is examining the impact of potential American disengagement from nuclear power’s development and where opportunities exist to step back in and shape its future. The program also will assess the US nuclear waste management program and efforts to collaborate with other countries on advanced reactor development, as well as options for improvement on both fronts. This effort will begin with a two-part commentary on some of the benefits the United States might derive from increasing its engagement on nuclear power. The first in the series, this piece, explores the important role nuclear energy can play in lowering greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst potential outcomes of climate change. The second piece will examine the geopolitical and national security implications of the United States and its traditional allies effectively ceding the international nuclear energy marketplace to the Chinese and Russians. The nuclear program’s ultimate goal is to inform readers—policy makers, industry leaders, academics, and others—with objective, research-based analysis. It will strive in the months and years ahead to contribute constructively to a necessary dialogue on the future of nuclear power.
Topic:: Environment, Nuclear Power, Pollution, Air Pollution, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15836. COVID-19 Pandemic’s Impacts on China’s Energy Sector: A Preliminary Analysis

Author:: Kevin Tu
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is inflicting high human costs in China and around the world. The stringent quarantine measures imposed by the Chinese government have severely affected the country’s economic activity, with profound energy and climate implications
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

15837. Evaluating the Trump Administration’s Approach to Sanctions: Venezuela

Author:: Richard Nephew
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Since taking power in January 2017, the Trump administration has overseen a dramatic escalation of sanctions[1] to pressure and punish US adversaries, including high-profile cases against Iran, North Korea, Russia, and Venezuela. Against this background, the Center on Global Energy Policy is publishing a short series of critiques of the Trump administration’s sanctions in the four cases mentioned. The series utilizes findings from the author’s book The Art of Sanctions, which recommends policy makers evaluate their sanctions decisions regularly to assess whether they are using sanctions effectively. It counsels that policy makers should have alternative strategies under development for use if they determine sanctions have or will likely fail to achieve their objectives. Further, the author enjoins those intent on using sanctions to recall that, like all foreign policy instruments, sanctions are only as good as the underlying strategy being pursued. This commentary, the fourth and last in the series, examines the effectiveness of the sanctions put in place against Venezuela. It assesses the sanctions approach within the parameters of the framework outlined in The Art of Sanctions and concludes with recommendations for the Trump administration. The Trump administration began with a conundrum: how to exert leverage on a country that is not only hostile to the United States but also an economic mess. Diplomatic engagement appeared an implausible path toward resolving US concerns with the country—not least of which centered on its potential to be disruptive to the region as a whole—but these concerns did not reach the level that would merit the use of military force. Such situations are usually tailor-made for the application of sanctions pressure, but, in Venezuela’s case, the country was already suffering under considerable economic strain that was entirely self-administered. Sensibly, the Trump administration declined to undertake major new sanctions initiatives for over a year. But upon doing so, the administration found itself in a wholly new and arguably more difficult situation: imposing sanctions on a country in the midst of a contested political transition. To date, the sanctions approach selected has been largely reasonable in this context, but impatience over the slow pace of the aforementioned transition could prompt error, especially if the administration loses sight of the desired end goal and begins to see sanctions pressure as an end unto itself.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: South America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

15838. The Greenest Stimulus Is One that Delivers Rapid Economic Recovery

Author:: Noah Kaufman
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: As governments plot their responses to the COVID crisis, it’s difficult to find an influential voice who is not calling for economic stimulus legislation that simultaneously aims to achieve climate change goals.[1] As International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva put it: “We are about to deploy enormous, gigantic fiscal stimulus and we can do it in a way that we tackle both crises at the same time.”[2] After all, governments will spend trillions of dollars to put people back to work. This could be a once-in-a-generation opportunity to shape massive government expenditures in a lower-carbon direction. Europe appears poised to take this advice, with the European Commission crafting a “Green Deal” at the center of a recovery package.[3] Many European countries have strong climate policy frameworks in place, including emissions regulations and net zero targets. In these countries, clean energy investments within economic stimulus packages can combine with these existing policy frameworks to enable even faster and cheaper decarbonization.[4] Here in the United States, the situation is starkly different. Expectations for climate progress from economic stimulus should be low, for two (related) reasons. First, the United States has no national climate plan in place, and the ability of clean energy spending to deliver emissions reductions without accompanying emissions regulations is very limited. Second, political opposition can prevent or severely weaken climate measures in economic stimulus for the foreseeable future. The climate measures with a plausible chance of inclusion in economic stimulus will, at best, enable the United States to continue muddling along on an incremental decarbonization pathway while temperatures rise to increasingly dangerous levels.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Green Technology, Recovery, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15839. Is China Still a Developing Country? And Why It Matters for Energy and Climate

Author:: Philippe Benoit and Kevin Tu
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: China’s dramatic economic growth in the 21st century has made it not only the second largest economy in the world but also a powerhouse in the global energy system. Now, as the top energy consumer and the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, China is being closely watched and judged as its impact on energy markets and climate grows more profound. Looking forward, many issues are expected to shape the evolution of China’s energy sector, not least of which is its development status. While China’s economic might makes it a superpower alongside the United States, it still faces many of the major challenges of a typical developing country, such as widespread energy poverty, including 400 million people without access to clean cooking, significant air pollution, and dependence on increasing energy use to fuel future economic growth. Its modest income per capita qualifies it as a middle-income developing country. Evaluating China’s development status is not just an academic exercise. How China views itself and its challenges and how the international community classifies it carry real-world consequences that can significantly impact how the country manages its energy needs going forward, what fuels it uses, how it interacts with energy and other partners, and the level of its contributions and commitment to climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts worldwide. Understanding the nature and implications of China’s development situation can help in designing energy policies and fostering an international framework that better promote sustainable growth both within the country and globally. This paper examines how the usual criteria employed by international organizations to determine a country’s development standing have become increasingly difficult to apply to China, given the dramatic changes it has undergone over the past several decades, notably from an energy perspective. The paper finds that China combines significant characteristics of both developing and developed countries and examines the energy and environmental implications of this hybrid status.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

15840. Strengthening Nuclear Energy Cooperation between the United States and Its Allies

Author:: Matt Bowen
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Nuclear energy cooperation between the United States and its allies has been important for over a half century. Bilateral cooperation agreements with key countries date back to the 1950s, and the United States played a principal role in the development of several allied nuclear energy programs. Today, the international nuclear energy marketplace has changed, and the supply chain is globalized—the US program, for example, depends on working with allies for major safety-related components. However, limitations imposed by legacy US statutes and other obstacles are hampering greater collaboration in areas that would enhance the country’s nuclear program today. Developing advanced reactors to produce dispatchable zero-carbon electricity and heat as part of global efforts to address climate change would be aided by greater cooperation and utilization of resources and financing across countries. Deeper cooperation with like-minded allies would also allow the United States to better compete against other supplier countries that have different commercial and geopolitical objectives. If the challenges facing the US nuclear program are not overcome, the country risks further ceding its role as a leading nuclear technology exporter to China and Russia. Already China and Russia are growing their domestic nuclear energy programs and offering attractive financing to prospective customers of this technology around the world. These nuclear competitors may place differing priorities on areas such as nonproliferation, and therefore maintaining a US role in the nuclear supplier regime is connected with national security considerations. This paper, part of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s nuclear power program, examines part of what may be required for the United States to regain momentum in the nuclear power industry after an erosion of domestic capabilities stemming from a long hiatus in new reactor orders. The paper discusses the historical importance of nuclear cooperation between the United States and allies, some of the challenges that the US and some allied nuclear energy programs are facing, and how cooperation could be reinvigorated to the benefit of the United States and its allies.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

15841. From Climate Change Awareness to Climate Crisis Action

Author:: Jan Eichhorn, Luuk Molthof, and Sascha Nicke
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: This report charts attitudes on the existence, causes, and impact of climate change in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Poland, Czech Republic, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It also examines public attitudes to a series of policies that the EU and national governments could harness to reduce the damage inflicted by human-made emissions. Although a clear majority of European and United States respondents are aware that the climate is warming, and that it is likely to have negative impacts for humankind, this report finds there is confusion about the scientific consensus on climate change. This, the report argues, has created a gap between public awareness and climate science, leaving the public underestimating the urgency of the crisis, and failing to appreciate the scale of the action required.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Science and Technology, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, and Ecology
Political Geography:: Europe

15842. Are Agri-Food Workers Only Exploited in Southern Europe?

Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: In recent years, several studies have reported on the exploitation endured by migrant workers in Southern European Union member states—especially in sectors such as agriculture and food production. However, there has been much less focus on the North. New research now shows that agri-food workers in Northern Europe also face poor and even abusive conditions. In this light, Are Agri-Food Workers Only Exploited in Southern Europe? focuses on production in Germany, Netherlands, and Sweden. These three EU member states have stronger social protections than Italy, Spain or Greece—yet the dynamics driving wage compression and the violation of workers’ rights are like those in Southern Europe. This publication provides recommendations on how the EU and national governments can act to make Europe’s agri-food system more sustainable, benefiting farmers, consumers, workers, and the environment.
Topic:: Agriculture, Environment, Human Rights, Labor Issues, Sustainability, Farming, Exploitation, and Consumerism
Political Geography:: Europe, Northern Europe, and Southern Europe

15843. Roma in the COVID-19 Crisis

Author:: Neda Korunovska and Zeljko Jovanovic
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: Roma communities in Europe face a much higher risk of death from COVID-19, as their situation, already marked by extreme racism and poverty, has been worsening in the last decade. However, the European Union member states covered in this policy brief—Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Slovakia, and Spain—have not responded with proportionate support. This brief argues that the COVID-19 crisis and the EU’s recovery plan in response both present an opportunity to improve the conditions of Europe’s Roma—not only in terms of rights, obligations, needs, but in the interests of sound political and economic decision-making across the region.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Human Rights, Health Care Policy, Social Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Spain, Italy, and Slovakia

15844. Do We Need an EU Ethical Food Label?

Author:: Giorgia Ceccarelli and Daniele Fattibene
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: Eradicating the exploitation of agri-food workers, promoting fairer food supply chains, and offering consumers effective tools to make truly informed food choices remain huge challenges in Europe. This report highlights the limitations of relying solely on food labelling schemes to meet these goals, and finds that voluntary certification schemes do not adequately enforce regulations or protect human rights. The report also argues, however, that the EU can use a number of tools to foster more just food supply chains, with ethical labels playing a role in that process as part of a “smart mix” of measures. The case studies in this report show that it is possible to have increased transparency in food labelling and supply chains, as well as better protections of workers in Europe and throughout the world. Additionally, the report explains how the EU can play an important role in providing food businesses with clear regulatory frameworks to ensure their operations do not harm workers or the environment.
Topic:: Environment, Health, Human Rights, Labor Issues, Food, Regulation, and Business
Political Geography:: Europe

15845. Working Together to Address Health Workforce Mobility in Europe

Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: The free movement of people is a cornerstone of an open and integrated Europe. Yet the labor migration of Europeans from lower-income countries in southern and eastern Europe to higher-income countries in northern and western Europe has had significant impact on the workforce—including the loss of skilled health professionals in their most productive years. Indeed, since 1989, hundreds of thousands of European health professionals have left their countries of origin for more promising opportunities in the west and north. Denied opportunities for decent work at home, and recruited by countries facing their own labor shortages, their mobility is a byproduct of a failure throughout Europe to develop health workforces in an evidence-based and strategic way. Ultimately, this failure threatens the human right to health. This brief offers policymakers six key insights, drawn from a literature review and interviews with European experts, on the migration and mobility of health professionals. These insights are offered within a framework that prioritizes human rights, gender equality, and worker solidarity.
Topic:: Migration, Labor Issues, Health Care Policy, European Union, Economic Mobility, and Migrant Workers
Political Geography:: Europe

15846. German Priorities for Africa during Its Presidency of the EU Council

Author:: Bram Dijkstra and Marta Martinelli
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: 2020 is a pivotal year for EU-Africa relations. Germany’s presidency of the EU Council provides an opportunity to address structural challenges—such as health care infrastructure, food provision, and managing the refugee and migration crises—revealed by the current COVID-19 crisis. The policy brief details Germany’s ambitions to foster a new partnership with Africa and offers recommendations in three priority areas: health care policy, economic development, and democratic governance.
Topic:: Agriculture, Diplomacy, Migration, Food, Health Care Policy, Refugees, Refugee Crisis, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Africa and Germany

15847. The Modern Agreement of Amity and Commerce: Toward a New Model for Trade Agreements

Author:: Beth Baltzan
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: Around the world, the process of economic globalization is under fire for serving the needs of corporate elites rather than ordinary citizens. But it is important to recall that trade does not have to aggravate inequality. The rules of globalization matter. If we have better rules for trade, trade will produce better results. In this paper, Beth Baltzan, a trade lawyer with extensive experience in government, proposes a new paradigm for a more equitable trading regime—outlining the key elements of an agreement with the overarching purpose of fostering positive relations between like-minded parties.
Topic:: Globalization, Economic Inequality, Trade, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: Global

15848. It’s Time to Put Climate Action at the Center of U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:: Jason Bordoff
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: In the U.S. Democratic Party, perhaps no issue has risen more in prominence during this election year compared with prior ones than climate change. The number of self-identified Democrats who consider it a “major threat” is up from 6 in 10 in 2013 to almost 9 in 10 today. A slew of proposals—from the Green New Deal embraced by many progressive environmental groups to a new 538-page climate plan released by Democratic members of a special committee on the climate crisis in the U.S. House of Representatives—lay out various policies. Yet while these plans offer much to celebrate, all of them fall short by focusing on domestic actions while paying scant attention to the global nature of the crisis. Every ton of carbon dioxide contributes to climate change no matter where it is emitted, so an ambitious climate strategy cannot only be domestic—it must put the issue squarely at the center of U.S. foreign policy. Past U.S. efforts to advance global action, such as Washington’s leadership to help secure the 2015 Paris climate agreement, have been key to progress. Yet given both the urgency and global nature of climate change, the issue cannot be siloed into U.S. State Department or Energy Department offices and spheres of diplomacy. Many aspects of U.S. foreign policy will impact, and be impacted by, climate change. An effective foreign policy requires taking climate change directly into consideration—not just as a problem to resolve, but as an issue that can affect the success and failure of strategies in areas as varied as counterterrorism, migration, international economics, and maritime security. Human rights offers some important lessons. In the wake of the Vietnam War and the United States’ secret bombings of Cambodia, public concern for human rights was on the rise. Upon taking office in 1977, President Jimmy Carter declared human rights to be a “central concern” of U.S. foreign policy. In contrast to the realpolitik promoted by outgoing Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, Carter argued that protecting human rights would advance U.S. interests and was too important to be divorced from other aspects of U.S. foreign policy. Rather, human rights must be “woven into the fabric of our foreign policy,” as then Deputy Secretary of State Warren Christopher testified before a Senate subcommittee. Despite Carter’s mixed foreign-policy success, climate change demands a similar centrality. As the defining challenge of our time, climate change must be elevated to a foreign-policy priority and cannot be addressed with a compartmentalized approach. It is necessary, of course, to rejoin the Paris agreement, contribute to international finance efforts such as the Green Climate Fund, curb multilateral coal financing, and collaborate with other countries on clean-energy innovation. Yet all these efforts add up to an international climate strategy, not a climate-centered foreign policy. Truly making climate change a pillar of a foreign-policy strategy would have five key elements.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15849. Warsaw, Brussels, and Europe’s Green Deal: Challenges and Opportunities in 2020

Author:: Jonathan Elkind and Damian Bednarz
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Prospects for the proposed European Green Deal—a top European Union (EU) priority despite the headwinds from the global pandemic—require accommodating both the “climate ambitious” policy makers in Brussels, Berlin, and several other EU capitals and the “climate cautious” leaders in Warsaw and other Eastern European capitals. With the European Council’s announcement of an agreed package on July 21, 2020, a tricky step remains: ratification by the European Parliament and national legislatures. If lawmakers support the Council’s package, this impressive feat of deal-making will yield important outcomes
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, European Union, Green Technology, and Green New Deal
Political Geography:: Europe

15850. Green Stimulus Proposals in the United States and China

Author:: David B. Sandalow and Xu Qinhua
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On June 14, 2020 New York time and June 15, 2020 Beijing time, the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University and Center for International Energy and Environment Strategy Studies at Renmin University convened a joint Zoom workshop on green stimulus programs in the US and China. The workshop offered a chance for scholars from the two universities to explore the recent economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, stimulus measures adopted to date and green stimulus proposals in both countries. Participants also discussed other measures to promote clean energy and low-carbon development in the US and China.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Green Technology, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

15851. Nuclear Decision-Making in Iran: Implications for US Nonproliferation Efforts

Author:: Ariane Tabatabai
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Assessments of foreign policy tend to fall into one of two major camps: either they ascribe to a state’s actions all of the characteristics of a unitary actor, in which there is a decision made and executed as designed; or they fixate on the minutiae of the internal politics and deal making that went into the decision, underscoring the complexity of decision-making but often losing the thread of what results. This is particularly pernicious when involving the actions of a state with opaque decision-making and where attribution of responsibility is often itself the subject of intense internal political debate and controversy, as is the case with Iran. In this paper, Ariane Tabatabai seeks to pierce the veil of Iranian nuclear decision-making to both explain how decisions are reached and identify the effects of those decisions as a matter of Iranian state policy. This is, in many ways, an essential matter for those interested in understanding how Iran will decide—and what Iran may decide—to do in response to the continued stresses being imposed upon it by US-led international sanctions, especially when previous analysis has proven to be both overly optimistic (that Iran would meekly absorb the costs of US sanctions) and, at times, overly pessimistic (that Iran would withdraw from the nuclear agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action without delay). It is necessary to understand better how Iran reaches its decisions, particularly in the nuclear sphere, to be able to more accurately predict what it may choose to do next. This has utility in a variety of lines of work and study, but perhaps no more so than in the energy industry, which is both affected by—and has the power to affect in turn—Iranian decision-making. For this reason, we commissioned this paper and commend it to you as an important source of knowledge on how Iran’s decision-making process works, especially as relates to its nuclear weapons–relevant capabilities. Though the weapons program remains dormant, the way in which Iranian officials—and Iran as that unitary actor—think about these capabilities is an essential element of the story to come.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

15852. A Near-Term to Net Zero Alternative to the Social Cost of Carbon for Setting Carbon Prices

Author:: Noah Kaufman, Peter Marsters, Alexander R. Barron, Wojciech Krawczyk, and Haewon McJeon
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The social cost of carbon (SCC) is commonly described and used as the optimal CO2 price. However, the wide range of SCC estimates provides limited practical assistance to policymakers setting specific CO2 prices. Here we describe an alternate near-term to net zero (NT2NZ) approach, estimating CO2 prices needed in the near term for consistency with a net-zero CO2 emissions target. This approach dovetails with the emissions-target-focused approach that frames climate policy discussions around the world, avoids uncertainties in estimates of climate damages and long-term decarbonization costs, offers transparency about sensitivities and enables the consideration of CO2 prices alongside a portfolio of policies. We estimate illustrative NT2NZ CO2 prices for the United States; for a 2050 net-zero CO2 emission target, prices are US$34 to US$64 per metric ton in 2025 and US$77 to US$124 in 2030. These results are most influenced by assumptions about complementary policies and oil prices.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15853. Trends and Contradictions in China’s Renewable Energy Policy

Author:: Anders Hove
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: China is the world’s leader in wind and solar power, although new capacity is being added more slowly than several years ago. Meanwhile, a wave of coal power plant approvals and fewer public mentions of urban air pollution and climate change have raised questions about the future of China’s renewable power sector in the wake of Covid-19. In this commentary, Anders Hove examines China’s recent energy policy announcements and their implications for the 14th Five-Year Plan, which will set energy policy for the period from 2021–2025. He argues that the future of renewable energy deployment in China will be shaped by an ongoing contradiction within the power sector between long-term market-oriented reforms on the one hand and short-term administrative planning on the other. This contradiction is well represented in two draft laws issued in April and June 2020: the draft Energy Law and the draft Guiding Opinion on Establishing a Clean Energy Consumption Long-Term Mechanism. The former states that the country should prioritize development of renewable energy by opening the market to more players, while the latter puts grid companies, provincial officials, and incumbent generation companies in charge of all aspects of planning and target-setting. The ways in which this contradiction will be resolved are unclear. China’s central government remains focused on promoting markets in the longer term, in part based on market models that have worked in Europe and the US, so international lessons and experiences could play a role. China’s power reform could benefit from a greater focus on including consumers and other market players, and greater emphasis of long-term over short-term planning. Such a shift would help ameliorate the current trend of over-investment in unneeded and uneconomic coal capacity at the expense of renewables.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Renewable Energy, Wind Power, and Solar Power
Political Geography:: China and Asia

15854. Fighting Against Imperialism: The Latin American Approach to International Sanctions

Author:: Jose Ignacio Hernandez
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The Latin American experience with international sanctions has been mostly as sanctioned states rather than targeting states. This is not merely because Latin American countries have lacked the interest in using sanctions tools but also because of more complex factors, including the historical evolution of Latin American nationhood, a set of cultural values rooted in the defense of national sovereignty, and opposition to any foreign intervention. Although those values were embraced as a result of defending the independence of Latin American nations against European dominance, the values were also applied in intraregional relations in Latin America. As a result, there is not a strong culture of international sanctions imposed by Latin American countries. With few exceptions—such as Cuba—Latin American countries tend to rely on diplomatic negotiations conducted under the nonintervention principle. The unparalleled crisis in Venezuela has produced a change in perspective. While the main actions adopted regarding this crisis were undertaken to facilitate diplomatic negotiations with the Venezuelan government, Latin America—particularly within the framework of the Organization of American States (OAS)—has started to implement international sanctions as a tool to promote a transition in Venezuelan governance. This shift has not been without controversy in Latin America. Consequently, the principle of nonintervention as relates to the use of sanctions is under stress in Latin America and merits re-examination. This paper, part of the International Security Initiative at the Center on Global Energy Policy, reviews the history of international sanctions in Latin America in the context of broader diplomatic developments.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Imperialism, Sanctions, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and North America

15855. The Implications of an Iran Sanctions Snapback

Author:: Richard Nephew
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: For several months, it has seemed likely that the Trump administration would elect to pursue the reimposition, or snapback, of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions against Iran. For those less steeped in the terminology, the concept of sanctions “snapback” is one developed as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It refers to the ability of the United States and other partners to quickly reimpose the sanctions that were suspended as part of the quid pro quo that saw Iran accept significant restrictions and transparency requirements for its nuclear program. Conceptually, this was necessary because Iran had the ability to restart its nuclear program if the United States or others were seen as cheating on the deal. The United States and its partners needed some assurance that, if Iran were found to be cheating, they could react just as swiftly. On August 20, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo finally submitted the notification that, according to the US government, would trigger a 30-day timeline for the reimposition of these sanctions. In the US view there is now no stopping the return of the UNSC’s original Iran sanctions regime, though there may be some procedural wrangling over how and when the measures will be reimposed. It is not clear, however, whether this will be the case. A fair amount of analysis has gone into the fundamental question of whether the United States has the standing to trigger snapback, which is an issue I explored in 2019.[1] European, Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and other observers argue that the United States has no such standing, because, under the terms of the UN Security Council resolution that created the snapback mechanism (UNSCR 2231), it is no longer a “participant” of the JCPOA following its withdrawal in 2018. Even former National Security Advisor John Bolton—who was in large part responsible for the US withdrawal from the JCPOA—tends to agree with this reading.[2] The Trump administration obviously disagrees. It is an important question, and one that speaks to the underlying credibility and integrity of the US snapback decision as well as its results. But, ultimately, there is no way of finding a conclusive answer. International law being what it is, there are no authoritative arbiters available to determine whether the United States or its many critics are right. Snapback is happening and will have consequences, we now need to shift to considering what comes next. I see four main outcomes that are directly relevant to this decision and the future of US sanctions policy and negotiations.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, Military Strategy, Sanctions, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

15856. Leveraging State Funds for Clean Energy: Lessons from New York State

Author:: Richard L. Kaufman and David B. Sandalow
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic is creating extraordinary financial challenges for state governments. Tax revenues are plummeting and social service expenses increasing, leaving budget shortfalls projected to exceed $750 billion over the next three years.[1] For state governments to continue playing important roles in promoting clean energy, they will need to adopt strategies that leverage their limited funds. This commentary proposes four principles to guide state governments in spending limited funds to promote clean energy and discusses recent programs that applied those principles in New York State. One of the authors, Richard Kauffman, played a central role in the development of those programs as New York State “Energy Czar” from 2013 to 2019 and continues to serve as Chair of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA).
Topic:: Energy Policy, Renewable Energy, COVID-19, and Safe Energy
Political Geography:: New York, North America, and United States of America

15857. Energizing America

Author:: Varun Sivaram, Colin Cunliff, David Hart, Julio Friendmann, and David B. Sandalow
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Clean energy innovation is central to the fight against climate change. The dramatic success in lowering the costs of solar panels and wind turbines in the past decade must be replicated across a wide range of other energy technologies. Doing so will open extraordinary economic opportunities. To rise to this challenge, the United States should launch a National Energy Innovation Mission. Led by the president and authorized by Congress, this mission should harness the nation’s unmatched innovative capabilities—at research universities, federal laboratories, and private firms (both large and small), in all regions of the country—to speed the progress of clean energy technologies. To jumpstart this mission and unlock a virtuous cycle of public and private investment, the US federal government should triple its funding for energy research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) over the next five years.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, Wind Power, Solar Power, and Safe Energy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15858. Reform Is in the Pipelines: PipeChina and the Restructuring of China’s Natural Gas Market

Author:: Erica Downs and Sheng Yan
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Beijing launched the most ambitious reform of China’s oil and natural gas industry in more than two decades with the establishment of the China Oil & Gas Piping Network Corporation (PipeChina) last December. The company is being developed from midstream assets—pipelines, liquified natural gas (LNG) import terminals, and storage facilities—and personnel transferred from China’s national oil companies (NOCs). Beijing expects that its goals of increasing China’s domestic and imported natural gas supplies and consumption will be more effectively advanced by having China’s midstream infrastructure owned and operated by a single company that provides fair and open access to its pipelines, LNG import terminals, and storage facilities instead of by three NOCs reluctant to grant third-party access to infrastructure.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and LNG
Political Geography:: China and Asia

15859. Net-Zero and Geospheric Return: Actions Today for 2030 and Beyond

Author:: Julio Friedmann, Alex Zapantis, Brad Page, Chris Consoli, Zhiyuan Fan, Ian Havercroft, Harry Liu, Emeka Richard Ochu, Nabeela Raji, Dominic Rassool, Hadia Sheerazi, and Alex Townsend
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The case for rapid and profound decarbonization has never been more obvious or more urgent, and immediate action must match growing global ambition and need. An important new component of this discussion is the necessity of achieving net-zero global greenhouse gas emissions for any climate stabilization target. Until net-zero emissions are achieved, greenhouse gas will accumulate in the atmosphere and oceans, and concentrations will grow, even with deep and profound emissions reduction, mitigation, and adaptation measures. This places a severe constraint on human enterprise: any carbon removed from the earth must be returned to the earth.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Green Technology, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15860. Why the United States Should Remain Engaged on Nuclear Power: Geopolitical and National Security Considerations

Author:: Matt Bowen
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Nuclear energy has shown much promise and faced considerable challenges since its origins in the mid-20th century. While the United States drove the early charge for safe nuclear power around the globe, its leadership has waned in recent decades. US reactors now under construction—following no orders for such plants in the United States for several decades—have gone well over planned budgets and schedules. And while the United States was once the leading international supplier of reactors, other countries have since stepped forward to fill that role. Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, as part of its wider work on nuclear energy, is examining the impact of potential American disengagement from nuclear power’s development and where opportunities exist to step back in and shape its future. The program also will assess the US nuclear waste management program and efforts to collaborate with other countries on advanced reactor development as well as options for improvement on both fronts. This effort includes a two-part commentary on some of the benefits the United States might derive from increasing its engagement on nuclear power. The first in the series explored the important role nuclear energy can play in lowering air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst potential outcomes of climate change. The second part of the series, this piece, examines the geopolitical and national security implications of the United States and its traditional allies effectively ceding the international nuclear energy marketplace to the Chinese and Russians. The nuclear program’s ultimate goal is to inform readers—policy makers, industry leaders, academics, and others—with objective, research-based analysis. It will strive in the months and years ahead to contribute constructively to a necessary dialogue on the future of nuclear power.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, National Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15861. Carbon Pricing in Organized Wholesale Electricity Markets

Author:: David R. Hill
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Speaking at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Technical Conference regarding Carbon Pricing in Organized Wholesale Electricity Markets, adjunct senior research scholar David R. Hill delivered a statement on issues surrounding carbon pricing in the FERC-jurisdictional markets. The purpose of this conference was to discuss considerations related to state-adoption of mechanisms to price carbon dioxide emissions, commonly referred to as carbon pricing, in regions with Commission-jurisdictional organized wholesale electricity markets (i.e., regions with regional transmission organizations/independent system operators, or RTOs/ISOs). The conference focused on carbon pricing approaches where a state (or group of states) sets an explicit carbon price, whether through a price-based or quantity-based approach, and how that carbon price intersects with RTO/ISO-administered markets, addressing both legal and technical issues.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15862. Planning a Sustainable Post-Pandemic Recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:: Mauricio Cardenas and Juan Jose Guzman Ayala
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: In 2020, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) will experience the most severe economic recession in decades. This paper looks at the challenges confronted by LAC and proposes a series of actions to structure a recovery plan that minimizes potential moral hazard effects while aligning fiscal, social, and environmental sustainability priorities.[1] High pre-pandemic sovereign debt levels, worsening credit ratings, and low tax revenues limit the much-needed fiscal space to overcome the present health and economic crises. Most countries in the region are at risk of losing two decades of progress in the fight against poverty and inequality, while their upper-middle income status makes them ineligible for debt relief and aid packages from advanced economies. The focus on solving the current crisis may also delay much-needed progress on climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, as well as overall improvements in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). We propose a combination of fiscal policy responses combined with new sources of financing to unlock a sharp recovery with minimal harm to fiscal sustainability in the long run. Through expanded public-private partnerships and blended finance structures, governments should be able to leverage private financing in large job-creation undertakings. Additionally, the issuance of SDG-linked sovereign debt and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) with SDG conditionality could also provide much-needed liquidity at low cost.
Topic:: Environment, International Cooperation, Global Recession, Sustainable Development Goals, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, and North America

15863. New York City’s Building Emissions Law Shows the Importance of Economywide Climate Policy

Author:: Noah Kaufman and Yu Ann Tan
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Regulations of greenhouse gas emissions, which are global pollutants, should ideally be coordinated across broad geographic and economic scopes. That way, climate policies can capture important interactions across sectors and borders. However, the United States has repeatedly failed to implement national and economywide climate legislation. That failure has led to an increasing focus on climate actions that are much narrower in scope: sector-specific regulations from subnational governments. A prominent recent example is New York City’s Local Law 97, which limits carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from a large segment of the city’s residential and commercial buildings. This law is among the most ambitious building emissions regulations in the world, but this commentary focuses on a concern with the design of Local Law 97. The law does not account for the planned decarbonization of the local electricity grid over the next decade, and thus fails to sufficiently encourage a shift from fossil fuels to electricity (or “electrification”), a critically important strategy for achieving a low-carbon building sector. Such a narrow focus is common for sector-specific climate regulations. The following sections explain the importance of electrification to deep decarbonization and the failure of building regulations to encourage it, focusing on New York City’s Local Law 97. Fortunately, solutions to the overly narrow focus of the New York City buildings law are readily available, including via New York State’s comprehensive climate strategy, which can align climate action across economic sectors within the state.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Law, Green Technology, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: New York, North America, and United States of America

15864. Nowhere to Hide: Implications for Policy, Industry, and Finance of Satellite-Based Methane Detection

Author:: Jonathan Elkind, Erin Blanton, Robert Kleinberg, and Anton Leemhuis
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: In August 2020, the Trump Administration finalized plans to roll back regulations on oil and gas industry emissions of methane from new and modified infrastructure. In the same month, the European Commission gathered stakeholder comments as part of its process to introduce the first EU-wide methane regulations. Though contradictory in direction, these regulatory processes on opposite sides of the Atlantic highlighted a critical climate protection challenge: How can the oil and gas industry—and the regulators who oversee it—best detect and address methane emissions to protect the environment and the climate in particular? The answer to this question will drive planning and operational approaches in the oil and gas industry. It could also significantly affect the future role of natural gas. Five years ago, many energy analysts expected natural gas to serve as a bridge fuel that would result in only half as much climate warming as coal, and fewer local air pollutants. Among other roles, gas was seen as a natural complement for variable wind or solar power—a way to provide firm, dispatchable, low-emissions power. Now that it is apparent that our understanding of methane emissions is poor, the climate implications of gas are far less clear. This poor grasp of methane emissions appears likely to become a thing of the past, however. In roughly the next five years, new satellite detection systems—used in concert with existing systems, aerial monitoring platforms, and ground-based monitors—can increase markedly the transparency surrounding methane leakage. The new wave of satellite monitoring capability has major implications for industry and governments. Our world is rapidly becoming a place in which methane emissions will have nowhere to hide. This commentary, co-authored by the Center on Global Energy Policy and TNO, focuses on detection and response to oil- and gas-related methane emissions, which have been the subject of increasing focus on the part of industry and the public policy community. It addresses the significance of methane emissions for the climate, and the challenges of detecting and accurately quantifying methane emissions. It then explores the evolving capabilities of satellite-based methane detection and monitoring systems, which are expected to advance rapidly in the coming years, and which can be especially powerful when used in concert with aerial and ground-based monitoring systems. It concludes with a discussion of the implications of the changing satellite detection landscape for the oil and gas industry, the finance and investment community, and the realm of public policy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Gas, Finance, and Methane
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15865. Expanding the Reach of a Carbon Tax: Emissions Impacts of Pricing Combined with Additional Climate Actions

Author:: John Larsen
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Putting a price on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can help governments reduce them rapidly and in a cost-effective manner. While 10 carbon tax bills have been proposed in the 116th US Congress, carbon prices alone are not enough to reach net-zero emissions by midcentury. Additional policies are needed to complement an economy-wide carbon tax and further cut CO2 from the US energy system. This study aims to provide a better understanding of such policy combinations. It projects the energy CO2 emissions impacts of two carbon taxes, starting in 2021, that span the rates in the carbon tax bills in Congress. The “low” tax scenario starts at $30 per ton in 2021 and rises at 5 percent plus inflation per year, reaching $44 by 2030, while the “high” carbon tax starts at $15 per ton and rises $15 per year, reaching $150 by 2030. The paper then describes the barriers inhibiting emissions reductions beyond those achieved by the carbon taxes alone for each major sector: electricity, transportation, buildings, and industry. Finally, it explores the energy system changes needed to overcome those barriers and the policy interventions that could deliver those changes. For certain key energy system changes, it provides quantitative estimates of emissions reductions incremental to the two carbon taxes. This paper is part of a joint effort by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) and Rhodium Group to help policy makers and other stakeholders understand the important decisions associated with the design of carbon pricing policies and the implications of these decisions. The paper finds the emissions impacts of the low and high carbon taxes alone lead to economy-wide energy CO2 emissions reductions by 2030 of 33 percent and 41 percent, respectively, below 2005 levels. A carbon tax combined with policy actions that support comprehensive, ambitious energy system changes could lead to emissions reductions in the range of 40 to 45 percent, arguably consistent with US midcentury deep decarbonization goals for the energy system. In the 2020s, the bulk of these emissions reductions are likely to occur in the power sector, even under a broad decarbonization strategy, due to the significant barriers to large near-term emissions reductions in the transportation, buildings, and industrial sectors.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15866. Roundtable on Climate-Oriented Economic Recovery

Author:: Center on Global Energy Policy
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On July 2, 2020, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) and Harvard University jointly hosted a virtual roundtable on climate-oriented economic recovery and stimulus packages. Stakeholders included senior experts from universities and policy institutes as well as former high-level government officials. Key questions discussed at the roundtable, held under the Chatham House Rule, included the following: What are the appropriate objectives of economic stimulus and recovery packages? What clean energy lessons from the 2009 American Reinvestment and Recovery Act are most relevant to the design of economic stimulus legislation today? What climate and energy policies are best suited to deliver on both economic stimulus and climate objectives? How does near-term climate-oriented stimulus complement medium-term climate policy and yield progress on long-term climate goals? The following is an overview of the discussion.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15867. Shifts in Global Sanctions Policy, and What They Mean for the Future

Author:: Richard Nephew
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The last four years have borne witness to a range of new sanctions, policies, and approaches around the world. Some of these were predicted in November 2016, as Donald Trump took to sanctions far more than his predecessors, using them to tackle virtually every foreign policy problem he encountered. In fact, Trump’s use of sanctions transcended their typical usage in both form and content, as he employed tariffs and other more traditional “trade” tools to try to manage a bevy of nontrade problems. The long-term effects of this decision have yet to be felt or properly understood. It may be that Trump was ahead of the curve in seeing the fracturing of the global liberal economic order and employed the US economy for strategic advantage while it was still ahead. It may also be that Trump undermined the US position in the global economy through his policies, if not actually hastened the demise of this system of managing global economics. Time and the evolution of policy in other global power centers will eventually tell. The shifting approach to sanctions policy by a variety of other states is a manifestation of the potential effects of Trump’s policy choices in using US economic power. From the EU to Russia to China, other countries have changed long-standing policy approaches as they relate to sanctions, either to respond to or perhaps to take advantage of the new paths forged by the United States. The actions that they have taken are not “unprecedented” per se, as each of these countries or organizations has—at times—embraced policies that are consistent with some of these current actions. But, in aggregate, they describe an overall shift in how the world treats sanctions and trade policy, particularly that as practiced by the United States.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

15868. Between Eurasia and the Middle East: Azerbaijan’s New Geopolitics

Author:: Svante Cornell
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Azerbaijan’s geopolitics have changed considerably in the last decade, along with the growing general instability in its neighborhood. Gone are the days symbolized by the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline’s construction, when a relatively stable balance existed between a loose Russian-led alignment including Iran and Armenia, and an informal entente between the United States and Turkey, which supported the independence of Azerbaijan and Georgia and the construction of direct energy transportation routes to Europe.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Middle East, and Azerbaijan

15869. Geopolitical Keystone: Azerbaijan and the Global Position of the Silk Road Region

Author:: Nikolas Gvosdev
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Historian Peter Frankopan concludes his magisterial sweep of world history, entitled The Silk Roads (2015), by noting that at the beginning of the twenty-first century, “networks and connections are quietly being knitted together across the spine of Asia; or rather, they are being restored. The Silk Roads are rising again.” The Caspian-Black Sea mega-region, to use the formulation of Amur Hajiyev, director of the Modern Turkey Study Center at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, serves as the buckle connecting these various belts together— linking the northern Middle East with Central Asia and Southeastern Europe. Former U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan Matthew Bryza prefers the term “greater Caspian region,” which he defines as “the area stretching from India to the Black and Mediterranean Seas with the Caspian Sea at the center.”
Topic:: History, Geopolitics, and Silk Road
Political Geography:: Azerbaijan and Global Focus

15870. Against ‘the Blob’: America’s Foreign Policy in Eurasia’s Heartland is Becoming its Own Greatest Enemy

Author:: Michael A. Reynolds
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: As this article goes to press, America and the world are in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. The pandemic’s end remains invisible, yet it has already wreaked extraordinary economic disruption around the globe. Inevitably, political upheaval will follow. Indeed, the strain of the pandemic has now catalyzed social and political unrest throughout the United States on a level not seen in half a century.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:: United States and Eurasia

15871. Not A Top European Priority: Can the EU Engage Geopolitically in the South Caucasus?

Author:: Amanda Paul
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The European Union has been active in the South Caucasus since Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia regained independence in 1991. While the EU has established itself as an important partner for all three states over the past three decades, the South Caucasus is certainly not a top foreign policy priority for Brussels. Despite hopes that EU policies could act as transformative tools to help strengthen stability, security, and democracy as well as bring about a more cohesive and resilient region, the results have been rather patchy from the EU’s perspective. Likewise, expectations that the EU would develop a more geostrategic and security orientated policy in order to balance Russia have been dashed.
Topic:: European Union and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe and South Caucasus

15872. Five-Star Hubs: Conceptual Key to Innovation and Prosperity

Author:: Taleh Ziyadov
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: One thousand years ago two fundamental human concepts, namely history and time, were united for the first time by a great figure of the Silk Road region. Serving at the court of Qabus ibn Wushmagir (a great scion of the Ziyarid dynasty that ruled over the Southern Caspian basin in present-day Iran), a young man of around thirty by the name of Abu Rayhan Muhammad al-Biruni was provided with the wherewithal to engage in a lifelong, systematic quest to try to understand nations and societies— irrespective of geographic or cultural provenance—as they understood themselves. Surpassing even Herodotus and Thucydides in investigative open-mindedness, Biruni also went on to become the first to standardize a single, objective timescale measuring system or matrix within which all of the particulars of human history could be compared chronologically side by side.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Innovation, Economic Development, and Silk Road
Political Geography:: Europe, Eurasia, and Global Focus

15873. Eurasia, the Hegemon, and the Three Sovereigns

Author:: Pepe Escobar
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: I t is my contention that there are essentially four truly sovereign states in the world today, at least amongst the major powers: the United States, the Russian Federation, the People’s Republic of China, and the Islamic Republic of Iran. These four sovereigns—I call them the Hegemon and the Three Sovereigns—stand at the vanguard of the ultra-postmodern world, characterized by the supremacy of data algorithms and techno-financialization ruling over politics.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Power Politics, Geopolitics, Emerging Powers, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: United States, China, Iran, Global Focus, and Russian Federation

15874. Silk Road Pathways: The China–Central Asia–West Asia Economic Corridor

Author:: Yu Hongjun
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Since the outbreak of 2008 world financial crisis, issues such as lackluster economic growth around the world and lack of progress in regional cooperation have not been resolved. Conservatism, isolationism, racism, populism, and unilateralism are on the march; political and social movements based on opposition to economic globalization are in vogue; and policymakers as much as ordinary people are expressing concern about the future of the world. Based on his observations and thoughts with regards to modern international relations, as well as his commitment towards a common destiny for mankind, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the launch of the Silk Road Economic Belt and Twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road, which together form the globally influential Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Topic:: International Political Economy and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Global Focus

15875. Completing the Southern Gas Corridor: SGC in a Post-pandemic World

Author:: Akhmed Gumbatov
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The global spread of the latest zoonotic virus, commonly known as COVID19, has become an unprecedented calamity for all humankind. By the time this publication goes to press, it is likely that worldwide around 25 million people will have been infected and the number of lives lost will approach the one million mark.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Political Economy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Pandemic
Political Geography:: Europe, Caucasus, Asia, and Global Focus

15876. The Karabakh Peace Process: Rebuilding Trust for International Engagement

Author:: Dennis Sammut
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The engagement of the international community in dealing with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been somewhat erratic and the efforts to broker a peace deal largely unsuccessful. Short outbursts of violence now regularly alternate with even shorter moments of optimism when peace appears within reach. Since the ceasefire agreement of 1994, geopolitical considerations have contributed to the reinforcement of deeply entrenched local animosities, fears, and distrusts, all of which have reduced the ability of the international community to act as an honest broker. A conflict that many believed could have been defused and resolved 30 years ago now appears intractable and unsolvable.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, International Community, and Peace
Political Geography:: South Caucasus and Nagorno-Karabakh

15877. Iran’s Longstanding Cooperation with Armenia: Domestic Azerbaijani Opposition May be Rising

Author:: Brenda Shaffer
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: When the Soviet Union collapsed in December 1991, Iran’s stable northern boundary suddenly became a shared border with five states: land borders with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan, and maritime borders with Kazakhstan and Russia. Tehran viewed this momentous change as a source of several new security challenges. Among these were maritime delimitation in the Caspian Sea and the establishment of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, two states that shared ethnic ties with large numbers of Iranian citizens.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Iran, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

15878. The OSCE and Minorities in the Silk Road Region: Fostering Social Cohesion and Integration

Author:: Lamberto Zannier and Eleonora Lotti
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: At the beginning of the 1990s new conflicts erupted in Europe as new borders appeared on the map following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia. As emerging states were striving to assert new identities (or revive old ones), various minorities found themselves living within new national borders, which in a number of cases provoked instability and conflict, with geopolitics complicating these dynamics even further. As quickly became apparent, some of these divisions were so deep that a number of those conflicts remain unresolved.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Minorities, Geopolitics, Silk Road, and OSCE
Political Geography:: Europe, Eurasia, and Asia

15879. Strategic Equilibrium: Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy

Author:: Hikmat Hajiyev
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: We all know that today Azerbaijan has good relations with its neighbors—except one, for obvious reasons—and that the country plays a crucial role in the development of the region. The development of mutually beneficial relations with neighbors, based on understanding and respect, is the foreign policy priority of Azerbaijan as defined by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev. The realization of economic projects and the increase of prosperity was the result of the establishment of an atmosphere of partnership, both with regional and other partners. And one can refer to such a successful foreign policy with the academic term “strategic balancing.” But we can more properly classify it as an independent and pragmatic foreign policy based on the national interest.
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Azerbaijan

15880. A Most Significant Geopolitical Development: Strategic Benefits and Strategic Focus

Author:: Metthew Bryza
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The November 10th, 2020, trilateral agreement signed by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Russian President Vladimir Putin could become the most significant geopolitical development in the South Caucasus since the collapse of the Soviet Union—perhaps even more than the establishment of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil and Baku-TbilisiErzurum natural gas pipelines. But it is not yet clear that key actors in the Transatlantic community appreciate this opportunity, especially Washington and Paris, who along with Moscow, comprise the Co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, the supposedly impartial mediating body of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The trilateral agreement defines a peace settlement in line with the framework unofficially agreed by the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan over a decade ago, and thus stands a good chance to hold. The so-called “Basic Principles” or “Madrid Principles” were originally tabled by the American Russian, and French Co-chairs of the Minsk Group in November 2007 at a meeting of OSCE foreign ministers in Madrid.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Geopolitics, and OSCE
Political Geography:: Europe, Eurasia, Asia, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

15881. Reassessing U.S.-Azerbaijani Relations: A Shared Imperative to Look Ahead

Author:: Robert F. Cekuta
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The U.S.-Azerbaijan relationship remains important to both countries, but it is time to reevaluate and update how they engage with each other. The Second Karabakh War is the most visible of the reasons for such a reassessment, given Azerbaijan’s military successes, Russia’s headline role in securing the November 2020 agreement that halted the fighting, and the need to undertake the extremely difficult work of avoiding a new war and building a peace. But China’s high profile economic, diplomatic, and security activities across Eurasia, coupled with the results of the November 2020 election in the United States, have also significantly altered the diplomatic environment. Lastly, multinational challenges—such as the economic, social, and other ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic or the realities of climate change—make the need for revaluation, dialogue, and mapping out new directions in the two countries’ relations even more apparent.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, China, Eurasia, and Azerbaijan

15882. While You Were Sleeping: Winds of Change in the South Caucasus

Author:: Alper Coşkun
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The flaring up of active combat in the Southern Caucasus in late September 2020 between Azerbaijan and Armenia initially seemed to catch many by surprise. An immediate upside of this turn of events was seen in the rekindled interest it generated in the three decade-old conflict in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, which was often misleadingly labeled as being “frozen.” It also acted as a crude reminder of the need for consistency in advocating respect for a rulesbased international order.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

15883. Levelized Cost of Carbon Abatement: An Improved Cost-Assessment Methodology for a Net-Zero Emissions World

Author:: Julio Friedmann
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: New policies are needed to achieve the net-zero emissions required to address climate change. To succeed, these policies must lead directly to swift and profound abatement of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Policies that appear effective on the surface too often have little real impact or are costly compared to alternatives. Governments, investors, and decision makers require better tools focused on understanding the real emissions impacts and costs of policies and other measures in order to design the most effective policies required to create a net-zero world. This paper, from the Carbon Management Research Initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, puts forward a levelized cost of carbon abatement, LCCA, an improved methodology for comparing technologies and policies based on the cost of carbon abatement. LCCA measures how much CO2 can be reduced by a specific investment or policy, taking into account relevant factors related to geography and specific asset. It calculates how much an investment or policy costs on the basis of dollars per ton of emissions reduced. Previous marginal or levelized cost methodologies that assess carbon reduction options often failed to consider the specific contexts that determine the real, all-in costs of a policy and the real, all-in impacts on emissions. These costs and impacts can vary depending on the contexts and details of geography, existing infrastructure, timing, and other factors. LCCA attempts to improve understanding of the real climate costs and benefits by including specific and local CO2 reductions in all estimations and consistently applying standard financial metrics that more accurately represent and compare costs. Investors and policy makers interested in climate, energy, and decarbonization must balance many competing options. The scenarios and analyses presented in this report can provide a foundation for wider analytical applications, and can help focus investments in innovation for hard-to-abate sectors, determine essential infrastructure required to facilitate market uptake, and estimate the value of grants in deployment. If the LCCA is not estimated, decision makers will not know the value of their policies and investments in terms of achieving greenhouse gas reductions and their carbon goals or the opportunity costs of taking one path over another. Finally, although carbon abatement costs are only one consideration of many in crafting climate policy (e.g., jobs, trade, domestic security), LCCA analysis will deploy efficient and effective approaches of GHG reduction and help avoid waste. This paper uses four scenarios to illustrate the discipline and value of LCCA analysis: first, the $/ton cost of using new solar power (utility or rooftop) to displace power-sector emissions in one market (California); second, the $/ton costs of new rooftop solar generation in several states with different solar resources, grid mixes, and policy environments; third, the $/ton cost of various technology options to decarbonize a range of primary iron and steel production methods; and fourth, the $/ton cost associated with sustainable aviation fuels and direct air capture and storage of CO2. The analysis provides insight into (a) the highest value for carbon reduction, (b) the relative discrete costs and benefits for decarbonization options, and (c) the potential shortfalls in policy or portfolio goals. In this context, the LCCA estimates for even simple cases can prove complicated depending on how emissions reductions are achieved. For example, our first scenario finds the costs of reducing emissions by replacing existing power generation in California with solar PV range from $60/ton (utility solar PV displacing natural gas power generation) to $300/ton (rooftop solar replacing a grid-average mix of generation) to more than $10,000/ton (any solar replacement of nuclear or hydropower). These large ranges are contingent on policy, investment, and/or technical decisions.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Green Technology, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15884. Potential Implications of the COVID-19 Crisis on Long-Term Electricity Demand in the United States

Author:: A.J. Goulding, Mugwe Kiragu, and David Nour Berro
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented changes in the ways people interact and approach economic activities. Electricity demand has declined and usage patterns have been altered, changes that could remain even after the pandemic ends. Failure to properly account for these declines in demand could lead to excess capacity in the electric power sector, added costs for consumers, and losses for investors. This paper, from the power sector program at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, presents a methodology to quantify potential permanent reductions in demand triggered by the pandemic. The authors first identify how electricity demand changed in the United States following the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, or “Great Recession,” the last event to cause a major reduction in consumption. They then analyze the unique ways in which demand patterns may change over the next three to five years as a result of the coronavirus, followed by some illustrative calculations of the potential impact. Finally, the authors discuss the implications for policy makers with regard to electricity sector evolution. The paper finds that the COVID-19 crisis is likely to result in a long-term decline in annual electricity consumption, though less than that observed after the global financial crisis. It is also likely to accelerate changes in the structure of electricity demand that were already underway.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Electricity, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15885. The Qatari Sanctions Episode

Author:: Richard Nephew
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On June 5, 2017, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, and Bahrain announced that they were cutting diplomatic ties with and imposing sanctions on Qatar. The most formidable of these sanctions was a comprehensive blockade of Qatar, which involved the closure of the land border between Qatar and Saudi Arabia as well as banning Qatari planes from entering these countries’airspace. The coalition then embarked on a limited program of sanctions advocacy, seeking US, European, East Asian, and other regional support for their efforts. Nearly three years after the crisis began, Qatar’s economic indicators all point to the positive and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has broadly concluded that the Qatari economy is structurally sound. Qatar faces some of the same issues and tensions that other hydrocarbon-dependent economies experience, but is in a comparatively strong position, particularly as relates to its future sanctions resilience as will be described below. This paper, part of the broader sanctions work from the Energy Security program at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, sets aside whether the cause of the Qatari dispute with its neighbors justified the use of sanctions and examines the significance of the execution of those sanctions. Qatar’s experience is not replicable in many contexts, given its sizable advantages in available resources. Nonetheless, how the country responded to and—in this paper’s assessment—effectively defeated the sanctions campaign mounted against it points to several lessons about the design and implementation of sanctions.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Sanctions, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Gulf Nations, and UAE

15886. Latin America Is Avoiding the Obvious Need for Reform. Why?

Author:: Mauricio Cardenas
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Since nearly the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic and political analysts have seen an urgent need – and opportunity – for Latin America to pursue reform. The argument is simple: The aftershocks of the current crisis will be devastating and long-lasting unless the region takes steps now to strengthen its labor markets and improve fiscal sustainability. That means taking advantage of unusual political circumstances to rally support for difficult decisions that have been put off for far too long. A failure to act would risk turning COVID-19 into the preamble to another lost decade. Unfortunately, there is little to suggest that governments in the region are prepared to use crisis in the present to prepare for the future. Throughout Latin America, the general response to COVID-19 has been to confront the challenge with increased spending. This will not have a happy ending. Governments will inherit massive debts, making it hard to deal with social unrest resulting from increased poverty and unemployment. Instead, the region needs to start making adjustments now – not only to spur economic recovery, but also to plant the seeds for a more sustainable performance down the road. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week added its voice to the chorus of those urging governments not to delay reform. As the region takes on debt to deal with the crisis, it will need to avoid falling over the fiscal cliff once the pandemic subsides, according to the IMF. That could mean, for example, pre-approving tax increases or the reduction in certain spending to be implemented once economic conditions return to normal. Labor laws could be changed to make it less costly for firms to hire (or hire back) workers, at least for the time being. Indeed, the right mix of reforms would have benefits in the short term as well. Given a better reading of future economic risks, markets and credit agencies would likely give countries increased fiscal space and capacity to deal with COVID-19 right now, when it is most needed. But there is little to suggest an appetite for reform. Few if any governments in the region have seriously pursued policy changes with a view not just of the short-term crisis but also their countries’ long-term health. Seldom has the disconnect between the opportunity for reform and the interest in pursuing it been so great. Instead of simply trumpeting the importance of reform, then, it’s important to also ask why it isn’t happening.
Topic:: Public Health, Sustainability, Pandemic, IMF, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Latin America and North America

15887. Engaging State-Owned Enterprises in Climate Action: Workshop Report

Author:: Philippe Benoit and Alex Clark
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On February 27, 2020, the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) convened a workshop at the university’s Faculty House in New York City. The workshop brought together a combination of practitioners, researchers, executives, and public sector officials to discuss the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in realizing collective climate action goals. Under the Chatham House Rule, the discussion focused around sectors (power generation, oil and gas) and relationships (government-SOE relations, and the role of public financial institutions), before concluding with a roundtable discussion drawing together the day’s proceedings and outlining the next steps. The following is a summary of that workshop.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Governance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15888. Electricity Oversupply: Maximizing Zero-Carbon Power to Accelerate the Transition from Fossil Fuels

Author:: Melissa Lott and Julio Friedmann
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Decarbonizing and growing the power sector are critical steps to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-efficient and timely manner. As more renewable energy enters the market, the higher penetration of solar and wind sources means periods of temporary overgeneration are likely to increase. There are signs that renewable electricity oversupply is now actively being sought in order to create opportunities to decarbonize other sectors or build export markets for products derived from that additional energy. This commentary discusses the role of electricity in deep decarbonization efforts, and how zero-carbon oversupplies might be deployed. Policy makers must assess what public benefits to prioritize under this recent phenomenon. This commentary examines four countries—Germany, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, and the United States—where excess generation is providing novel opportunities. The case of New Zealand is particularly illustrative of the choices countries and policy makers are facing. There, extra zero-carbon supply has suddenly appeared due to the closure of an aluminum smelter. The reduced load means this new abundance could be used to: expand the transmission infrastructure to feed electric loads elsewhere in the nation, decarbonize non-power sector applications (e.g., transportation or industry), produce and sell new products with near-zero carbon footprints (e.g., hydrogen, ammonia, chemicals, fuels), or operate machines that remove CO2 from the air and oceans.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Electricity, Fossil Fuels, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15889. ESG Investing and the Oil and Gas Industry: Moving Toward a Holistic Approach to Risk, Governance; Performance Measurement, Disclosure, and Results

Author:: Hon Xing Wong, Marianne Kah, and Erin Blanton
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On September 17, 2020, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) held a virtual workshop about environmental performance in the oil and gas industry. Investors, senior oil and gas industry executives, NGOs, and other stakeholders participated in this candid discussion about how environmental risks should be measured, disclosed, and incorporated into investment decisions.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15890. Output-Based Rebates: An Alternative to Border Carbon Adjustments for Preserving US Competitiveness

Author:: Noah Kaufman, John Larsen, Ben King, and Peter Marsters
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Two linked and frequently raised concerns about putting a price on carbon dioxide emissions in the United States are whether such a tax would unintentionally advantage foreign competitors and, as a result, lead to increased emissions outside American borders. The tax could make American products more expensive than those made by companies in countries not imposing comparable climate regulations, which could lead to shifts in production overseas. Because a central aim of climate policy is to reduce global emissions, the “leakage” of production overseas would run counter to this goal. To avoid this outcome, carbon tax proposals commonly include a border carbon adjustment (BCA), which would impose the carbon tax on imported energy-intensive and trade-exposed products and provide a tax refund for exports of the same products. This commentary, part of a series of joint research on carbon tax policies by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and Rhodium Group, highlights an alternative way to ensure that US firms remain on a level playing field with foreign competitors: output-based rebates (OBRs). While a BCA would focus on imports and exports, an OBR would instead compensate vulnerable US firms based on their production—a simpler process. Both BCAs and OBRs have their benefits and drawbacks, but nearly all carbon tax bills recently proposed in Congress included a BCA, and none included OBRs. This commentary reintroduces output-based rebates as an alternative to BCAs, analyzes US industries that could be compensated with OBRs, and estimates the costs of doing so. A border carbon adjustment is an appealing concept: simply apply the same carbon tax to foreign firms that is applied to domestic firms. The key advantage of OBRs is avoiding the most significant administrative hurdles of BCAs, including the complexities of determining the carbon content of foreign goods and providing foreign firms credit for climate regulations in their home countries. The proposed (but not passed) American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, commonly called the Waxman-Markey climate bill, included compensation for energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) US firms with OBRs. This commentary uses the Waxman-Markey proposal as a guidepost to analyze the potential scope and costs of OBRs today.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15891. Building a New Grid without New Legislation: A Path to Revitalizing Federal Transmission Authorities

Author:: Avi Zevin, Sam Walsh, Justin Gundlach, and Isabel Carey
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Zero-carbon electricity will be the backbone of a net-zero economy, not only keeping the lights on in our homes and offices but also powering our transportation systems and industrial processes. Indeed, research indicates that in order to decarbonize the economy at a reasonable cost and within a reasonable time frame, we must rapidly decarbonize and grow the power sector. Electricity—how it is generated, moved along the transmission and distribution grids, and used—is already undergoing a rapid transformation in the United States. This transition has been supported over the last decade by steep cost declines for wind, solar, and battery technologies as well as cheap natural gas produced via hydraulic fracturing. But the transition to a net-zero power sector needs to accelerate to mitigate climate change, which is already impacting the health of people around the country and world. New long-distance, high-voltage transmission lines will be vital if the United States is to deploy enough renewable generation capacity to decarbonize the power sector and to integrate it cost-effectively, as well as electrify our economy in time to meet the targets established in the Paris Agreement. Because Congress may not take timely action to remove barriers to these power lines, policy makers and the incoming Biden administration should explore how the federal government could use existing authorities to foster new long-distance transmission line development. This paper seeks to explain steps that the federal government—particularly from within the US Department of Energy and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission—could take to facilitate development of a future grid that is capable of supporting a reliable, affordable, and increasingly zero-carbon power sector. Consistent with the mission of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA to advance smart, actionable, and evidence-based energy and climate solutions through research, education, and dialogue, the goal in publishing this paper in partnership with NYU School of Law’s Institute for Policy Integrity is to provide insights that are useful to policy makers in the format and time frame needed. We hope that this report contributes to supporting informed dialogue on potential tools for building a sustainable power sector in the United States.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Electricity, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15892. How the US and China Could Renew Cooperation on Climate Change

Author:: Aimee Barnes, Fan Dai, and Angela Luh
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Averting global climate catastrophe depends in large part on progress by the world’s two greatest powers and emitters: the United States and China. However, relations between these two countries—particularly on climate action—have deteriorated over the past four years. With a new presidential administration set to enter the White House in January 2021, there is an opportunity for the US and China to build trust and cooperation on climate change in a way that supports a cooperative and dynamic bilateral relationship more broadly. This commentary takes a close look at the Biden-Harris presidential platform with respect to climate action and China, and assesses China’s domestic and international climate efforts, particularly with respect to the status of its 14th Five-Year Plan. Importantly, what emerges from this examination is a starting point for China and the US to improve their relationship through climate action and collaboration. China’s announcement that it would seek to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is an important step towards such cooperation.[1] The most promising potential areas for US-China cooperation fall into three broad categories: renewing a shared commitment to global climate governance under the Paris Agreement; building trust to enable renewed bilateral cooperation, such as on technology innovation and investments; and supporting subnational leaders' progress in both countries through platforms where they can productively convene. Recognizing that a climate-safe future is bound up in our mutuality, these two world powers can promote a new era of climate action and resiliency.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Environment, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

15893. How Germany and France Could Play a Leading Role in International Donor Coordination

Author:: Lennart Kaplan
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: In the framework of the Agenda 2030 for sustainable development, France and Germany face common challenges, ranging from security to global health. Against this background, this paper discusses opportunities and barriers for a French-German leadership in international donor coordination.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, International Cooperation, Trade, and Donors
Political Geography:: Europe, France, and Germany

15894. Food Security in Times of Crisis: Poor Developing Countries are Different

Author:: Michael Brüntrup
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Until now, the Corona crisis is mainly fought through lockdown measures. In more wealthy countries, these have barely an immediate effect on food security. In poor countries, the situation is different: There, these measures threaten people immediately. The text discusses issues and consequences.
Topic:: Development, Poverty, Food Security, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15895. Migration and the 2030 Agenda: Making Everyone Count Migrants and Refugees in the Sustainable Development Goals

Author:: Anne Koch and Jana Kuhnt
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: With its guiding principle “leave no one behind”, the 2030 Agenda aims at improving the living conditions of poor and marginalised groups. Migrants and refugees are not systematically considered in this process. In oder to do so, data disaggregated by migratory status is urgently needed.
Topic:: Migration, United Nations, Refugees, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15896. Bridging the Gaps: An Integrated Approach to Assessing Aid Effectiveness

Author:: Heiner Janus
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This briefing paper proposes an integrated approach of aid effectiveness that brings together four fragemented policy and research communities. The integrated approach can help development organisations and researchers to better organise and communicate their contributions to the 2030 Agenda.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15897. Pathways for Integrating Socially Responsible Public Procurement in Municipalities

Author:: Maximilian Müngersdorff and Tim Stoffel
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Socially responsible procurement is a powerful policy instruments municipalities can use to help realising the SDGs and limiting human rights violations in value chains. However, implementation is low. We present success factors and triggers to utilise this instrument more broadly.
Topic:: Human Rights, Sustainable Development Goals, and Cities
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15898. Triangular Cooperation: Broader, more Dynamic and Flexible

Author:: Geovana Zoccal
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: rilateral Cooperation (TriCo) has to operate growing complexity in the international development cooperation, going beyond the North-South-divide. TriCo became broader, more dynamic and flexible. The briefing presents recommendations to advance TriCo for all donors, and to make the modality support the 2030 Agenda.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15899. Russia in Africa: Is Great Power Competition Returning to the Continent?

Author:: Agnieszka Paczyńska
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Since 2014 Russian economic, political and security engagement in Africa has grown significantly. This policy brief analyses the motives and recent changes in Russia's Africa policy, and discusses implications for German and European cooperation with Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Power Politics, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, and United States of America

15900. Earmarked Funding for Multilateral Development Cooperation: Asset and Impediment

Author:: Max Otto Baumann and Erik Lundsgaarde
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The United Nations development system and other multilateral organizations have increasingly been funded through earmarked contributions. This has implications for their ability to effectively and independently perform the functions member states’ expect of them.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, United Nations, Multilateralism, Development Aid, and Funding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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