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13901. Guidebook: Direction: An Efficient State

Author:
Gvantsa Ichkiti, Hasmik Grigoryan, Agnieszka Kulesa, Salome Kandelaki, and Stanislav Bieliei
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The Polish Decentralisation Guidebook aims at presenting in a synthetic way the experience of Poland regarding the re-introduction of local government and the decentralisation process since 1989. Its main goal is to provide representatives of central and regional authorities, experts, and representatives of opinion-forming circles in Armenia and Georgia with relevant information and knowledge. The idea of the authors of this Guidebook was to facilitate mutual learning between the countries, the exchange of good practices, and lessons learned. The territorial division of Armenia was established in 1995. Now the country has two levels of administrative division – regions and communities – and the local self-government is exercised only on the level of communities. In the case of Georgia, administrative reform aimed at introducing local government started in 1997. Currently, self-government in Georgia is exercised on just one level – in municipalities (including self-governing cities and self-governing communities). Poland’s experience, in which local government units are established on all three levels of territorial division, might be useful to Armenia and Georgia, if they wish to further reform their territorial administration and pursue decentralisation. This Guidebook is comprised of four main parts. The first part is devoted to the presentation of the Polish experience in five selected areas: Empowerment of local communities Financing of local government units Providing public services Absorption of external funds by local governments Crisis responses The second part is dedicated to the presentation and analysis of needs and main blocking points in decentralisation in Armenia, while the third one concentrates on Georgia. Both of them are structured around the five above-listed areas. The last but very most important section of this Guidebook provides a set of recommendations for Armenia and Georgia based on the Polish experience in introducing local government and decentralisation. The country-specific sections of this Guidebook were prepared mainly on the basis of the results of desk research. This included reviewing the existing literature, relevant state strategies and action plans as well as reports developed by local and international organisations. Key legal acts were also reviewed. In addition, interviews with representatives of local municipalities and other stakeholders were carried out in Armenia and Georgia. This Guidebook was developed as part of the project called ‘Direction: an efficient state. Polish experiences of decentralisation and modernisation, lessons learned for Armenia and Georgia’ co-funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland. It is the joint work of three partner institutions: CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research based in Warsaw, the Tbilisi-based Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP), and the Analytical Centre on Globalization and Regional Cooperation (ACGRC) from Yerevan.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Governance, Economic Growth, Social Policy, Trade, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Poland, and Armenia

13902. WHY HEALTHY SKEPTICISM ABOUT THIS YEAR’S NOBEL PEACE PRIZE IS WARRANTED

Author:
Ida Rudolfsen
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
Today the World Food Program (WFP) receives this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. The award has been called happily uncontroversial, following last year’s prize, which was awarded to Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister of Ethiopia, for making peace with Eritrea. The current conflict in the Tigray region calls into question the durability of that peace. The award is also timely, as estimates show that, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, more than a quarter of a billion people will face acute hunger by the end of the year, increasing from 135 million to 265 million.
Topic:
Food, Hunger, and World Food Program (WFP)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13903. GENDER AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE

Author:
Rose McDermott
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
Recent commentary has noted that countries run by women have done a markedly better job at containing the COVID-19 pandemic than countries run by men. Previous commentary has also suggested that the public tends to think that female leaders do a better job on issues related to health and education. But the COVID-19 pandemic is not simply a health issue; it also presents major challenges in international relations, which begs the question: how does gender influence international relations? Gender affects international relations in many ways. It is at the root of many types and forms of conflict, from domestic violence to war. War is usually thought of as being something that is supported primarily by men even if the negative effects disproportionately fall on women. However, a great deal of conflict begins in and around battles over status between men, and between men and women. This is true in both domestic and international realms. Conflict, like much else, begins in the home. Children watch their parents disagree and observe how fights take place. Do parents have reasoned arguments that end in negotiated compromises? Or does their father beat their mother into submission? Children learn from watching, and take lessons about how to resolve conflict—and the role of domination and coercion in relationships—into the larger world, and use these models as the basis for how they feel they, and their nations, should behave.
Topic:
Political Violence, Gender Issues, Women, Leadership, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13904. TWENTY YEARS AFTER UNSCR 1325: ANY PROGRESS ENDING WARTIME SEXUAL VIOLENCE?

Author:
Robert Nagel, Dara Kay Cohen, and Ragnhild Nordås
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
Tomorrow is the 20th anniversary of the groundbreaking UN Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women Peace and Security (WPS). Where are we on the road to ending conflict-related sexual violence? There is good news and bad news. When the UN Security Council passed resolution 1325 on Women Peace and Security it was a momentous event. Women’s rights and violence against women had never before been on the agenda of the Security Council. Resolution 1325 emphasized the need for increased participation of women in national, regional, and international institutions, and for women’s inclusion in peace negotiations. Perhaps even more importantly, it acknowledged the agency of women in matters of war and peace, in contrast to the predominant idea of women as merely passive victims. A central component of 1325 was to explicitly call on all parties to armed conflict to take special measures to protect women and girls from violence, particularly sexual and gender-based violence.
Topic:
Gender Issues, United Nations, Women, Gender Based Violence, Sexual Violence, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13905. WHAT DO THE BAHRAIN-ISRAEL-UAE AGREEMENTS MEAN?

Author:
Jeremy Pressman
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
How do the Bahrain-Israel-UAE agreements signed on September 15 demonstrate a shift in the Arab-Israeli peacemaking paradigm? While the basic differences from past agreements such as the Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty (1979) are very significant, the new agreements also suggest a major shift for potential pathways to Israeli-Palestinian conflict resolution. Directly trading Arab normalization with Israel for Israeli concessions to the Palestinians is out; alternative pathways include everything from Palestinian surrender to Emirati persuasion to Israeli societal transformation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Peacekeeping, and Trade
Political Geography:
Israel, Bahrain, and United Arab Emirates

13906. THE BIG LESSON OF PEACEKEEPING IN SUDAN: BEWARE OF HOST-COUNTRY OBSTRUCTION

Author:
Allard Duursma
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
Every student that takes a class on United Nations (UN) peace operations will be told on day one that, along with impartiality and the non-use of force (except in self-defense and defense of the mandate), the consent of the conflict parties is one of the three fundamental principles of UN peacekeeping. But students will soon realize that the principle of consent is just that—a principle. Which is often compromised. Host-state consent was compromised during the deployment of UN peacekeepers in the Ivory Coast when Laurent Gbagbo was in power. UN peacekeepers in South Sudan also face the challenge of compromised host-state consent. Peacekeepers in the Democratic Republic of Congo have occasionally also been confronted by government actors trying to undermine their work. The withdrawal of host-state consent has even led to the termination of peacekeeping operations in Chad, Burundi, and Eritrea/Ethiopia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, South Sudan, and Ivory Coast

13907. COVID-19, FOOD ACCESS, AND SOCIAL UPHEAVAL

Author:
Ida Rudolfsen
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
According to the World Food Program’s (WFP) latest report, the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to an 82 percent increase in global food insecurity, affecting around 270 million people by the end of the year. On June 29, the organization announced it is undertaking its largest humanitarian effort to assist an increasing number of food-insecure low- and middle-income countries. In a statement about the plan, WFP Executive Director David Beasley said that “until the day we have a medical vaccine, food is the best vaccine against chaos. Without it, we could see increased social unrest and protests, a rise in migration, deepening conflict, and widespread under-nutrition among populations that were previously immune from hunger.”
Topic:
Food, Food Security, Hunger, Pandemic, COVID-19, and World Food Program (WFP)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13908. THE STABILITY-INSTABILITY PANDEMIC

Author:
Evan Perkoski
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
Will the COVID-19 pandemic increase or decrease conflict around the globe? Across myriad blog posts and op-eds, a consensus appears to be emerging: in the short term, the global community may experience a pax epidemia, as Barry Posen refers to it, where “the odds of a war between major powers will go down, not up.” But the opposite may be true for intrastate conflict—e.g. civil wars and insurgencies—where conditions seem ripe for more turbulent subnational politics.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, War, Conflict, COVID-19, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13909. 5 QUESTIONS ON DEVELOPMENT AND CONFLICT

Author:
David A. Lake and Eli Berman
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
Violence is a feature of life in many developing countries. As governments, private philanthropic organizations, and communities work to reduce inequity, alleviate poverty, and improve the well-being of people living in low- and middle-income countries, what role does conflict play in stymying development? And can development reduce conflict? David Lake, distinguished professor of political science at UC San Diego, poses five questions about development and conflict to Eli Berman, research director at the UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation and professor of economics at UC San Diego.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Governance, Afghanistan, Conflict, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13910. THE DIPLOMATIC BURDEN OF COVID-19

Author:
Benjamin E. Bagozzi and Ore Koren
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
At a time when global cooperation is needed more than ever, new research suggests that pandemics may weaken diplomatic connections between countries and lower the probability that nations will establish new diplomatic ties. Diplomacy is one of the most enduring forms of international political interaction. Administered through embassies, consulates, and their political and bureaucratic support staffs, on-the-ground diplomatic relations are a key tool for international political negotiation, cooperation, trade promotion, dispute settlement, foreign intelligence management, and cultural exchange.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Communications, Peacekeeping, Negotiation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13911. YEMEN’S PROXY WARS EXPLAINED

Author:
Peter Krause and Tyler B. Parker
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
Five years ago today, Yemen became a new front in the “Middle East Cold War” when a Saudi-led coalition intervened to restore President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi to power. Hadi, who took over the presidency after longtime authoritarian leader Ali Abdullah Saleh was forced out during the Arab Spring, had fled to Saudi Arabia in late March 2015 following a months-long takeover of the Yemeni capital of Sana’a by Ansar Allah, a Shia militia supported by Iran and known widely as the Houthis.
Topic:
Proxy War and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Yemen

13912. IS THE RESPONSIBILITY TO PROTECT DEAD? THE VIEW FROM LIBYA

Author:
Lisa Hultman
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
World leaders met recently in Berlin to discuss solutions for ending the civil conflict in Libya. The United Nations (UN)-backed government currently lacks control over large parts of the country, while the opposition is backed by several countries—Russia, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, among others. Hundreds of people have been killed in the last year alone, and thousands displaced. This was surely not the anticipated outcome of the NATO-led military intervention in 2011—an intervention authorized by the UN and justified in the name of Responsibility to Protect (R2P), a doctrine adopted by the UN General Assembly in 2005, that commits countries and the international community to protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity. Libya is the only time in history that military intervention has been justified on the grounds of R2P.
Topic:
NATO, United Nations, Humanitarian Intervention, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
Libya

13913. ON THE ASSASSINATION OF QASSEM SOLEIMANI

Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
On January 3, 2020, an American drone strike killed Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Quds Force, and one of the most influential military and political figures in Iran. It is an extraordinary event—former American army general and director of the CIA David Petraeus called it “more consequential” than the killing of Osama bin Laden—with potentially profound implications for US-Iranian relations, and the entire Middle East. Here, international relations experts from UC San Diego discuss why the Trump administration killed Soleimani; what might come next; and the implications for US domestic politics. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Topic:
International Law, Military Intervention, Assassination, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
United States and Iran

13914. Post-INF Arms Control in the Asia-Pacific: Political Viability and Implementation Challenges

Author:
Tanya Ogilvie-White
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Collaborative efforts to build a new arms-control architecture are urgently needed following the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) – especially in the Asia-Pacific, where arms-racing pressures are unbridled. High-level discussions within the Trump administration on deploying previously prohibited ground-based INF-range (500–5,500 kilometres) missiles in the Asia-Pacific could hamper progress; rather than convincing Beijing to engage in (as-yet-unspecified) trilateral arms-control negotiations, they could increase strategic risks, strain relations between the United States and its allies in the region (Australia, Japan and South Korea) and encourage closer Sino–Russian military cooperation. Efforts to create arms-control momentum are welcome, but to be politically viable, new initiatives need to be fair, equitable and underpinned by strategic empathy, reciprocity and mutual restraint. A more constructive approach would see the US and its Asia-Pacific allies using their combined diplomatic capital to push for a formal regional arms-control dialogue, which could initially focus on confidence building and strategic-risk reduction, and over the longer term help lay the foundations for a new arms-control regime.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and INF Treaty
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13915. Inevitable bedfellows? Cooperation on Military Technology for the Development of UAVs and Cruise Missiles in the Asia-Pacific

Author:
Amy J. Nelson and T. X. Hammes
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Today, the ‘small, smart and many’ revolution is providing state and non-state actors with capabilities that previously belonged only to great powers. Advances in specific technologies and manufacturing are broadening access to long-range precision-strike capabilities, and an increasing number of states have an incentive to take advantage of this – particularly those that share a border with China. This paper examines how the evolution of enabling technologies and changes in strategic objectives are increasing the likelihood that uninhabited-aerial-vehicle (UAV) and cruise-missile technologies will proliferate throughout the Asia-Pacific. Through arms sales, new technology-sharing relationships are likely to be created and existing ones reinforced. The current rapid pace of technological evolution means that non-aligned states, non-state actors and even second-tier defence companies are pursuing and contributing to UAV and cruise-missile capabilities. We conclude that although the proliferation of advanced weapons is normally a cause for concern regarding escalation, modern cruise missiles and UAVs may today serve as weapons that smaller states can use to deter aggression from larger states. Historically, the drive to obtain ballistic-missile technology has – when not inhibited by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and other non-proliferation initiatives – produced unlikely state-to-state development partners (some of which paired off specifically in order to circumvent MTCR restrictions). Ballistic-missile proliferation saw the emergence of partnerships between Pakistan and North Korea, Iran and North Korea, and Ukraine and China – all forged to develop or provide capabilities via aligned political interest. In 2008, Dennis Gormley warned that the pattern of cruise-missile proliferation would likely mirror that of ballistic missiles. It does indeed appear that UAV and cruise-missile proliferation is seeing the same pattern of cooperative, facilitated proliferation. Moreover, while developing nations have historically piggybacked on stronger states through technology sharing, today they are assisted through a number of sharing modalities and mechanisms, including technology adoption, overt cooperation (either co-production or co-development) and sales. To complicate matters further, these mechanisms may also be executed by non-state actors (from violent extremist organisations to defence contractors).
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific

13916. The PLA’s Mask Diplomacy

Author:
Helena Legarda
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Much has been written about China’s “mask diplomacy” during the Covid-19 pandemic. As the epicenter of the pandemic shifted from China to the rest of the world, China’s government sent planeloads of masks and medical supplies to hard-hit countries around the world. Beijing’s “mask diplomacy” sought to bolster China’s image as a responsible global power and was widely perceived as part of Beijing’s attempt to control the narrative around the pandemic and distract from its initial cover-up. But while all the attention focused on the Chinese government’s actions, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was carrying out its own, much quieter version of mask diplomacy. According to MERICS data, in the three months between March 13 and June 19, the PLA sent military planes full of medical material to 46 countries. The material, which mostly consisted of masks and personal protective equipment (PPE), was invariably donated to the recipient countries’ armed forces or defense ministries. The PLA also set up video conferences with foreign militaries to share its experiences of fighting the Covid-19 outbreak and strengthen military-to-military relations. At first glance, the Chinese government’s mask diplomacy campaign and the PLA’s look remarkably similar. However, a number of differences suggest there were different goals and strategies at play.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Public Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China and Asia

13917. COVID-19: Global Trade and Supply Chains after the Pandemic

Author:
David Ramirez
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The COVID-19 outbreak has shaken international trade and supply chains to their very foundations. This paper presents possible trade and supply scenarios, examining in particular the future of China’s pre-COVID-19 role as ‘the world’s factory’. Although disruptions such as the Japan earthquake and tsunami of 2011 and the recent trade war between the United States and China have strained global trade and supply chains in the past, particularly in Asia, COVID-19 has had historically devastating effects. While high levels of uncertainty currently make it hard to foresee exactly how global trade and supply chains will look in the post-COVID-19 era, it is inevitable that they will be reshaped.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13918. China’s BRI: The Security Dimension

Author:
David F Gordon, Haoyu Tong, and Tabatha Anderson
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In this second report published by the IISS Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Project under the Geo-Economics, Geopolitics and Strategy Programme, the authors examine a range of security-related challenges that the BRI confronts as it expands into diverse geographies to China’s west and south. The report explores the risks in operating across environments fraught with political, economic and social instability. Beyond this, it delves into the actual and potential challenges that the BRI faces from Islamic extremism and terrorism. The report also assesses the ways in which the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) fits into China’s growing strategic interests in Southeast Asia, and the development of the Digital Silk Road (DSR) at the forefront of the technological and geopolitical competition between China and the United States. Finally, the report explores the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as a case study of the security risks and governance challenges present in what is probably the single most important country-wide BRI endeavour.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Infrastructure, Hegemony, Digital Economy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Silk Road
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, and Asia

13919. The Consequences of COVID-19: Reduced Chances of Achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development?

Author:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In the second in a series of papers analysing the ways COVID-19 is affecting stability across the world, this paper explores how the pandemic has affected the implementation of the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and undermined progress towards global economic, social and political stability. The COVID-19 pandemic is a major setback on the path towards achieving the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (2030 ASD), making the challenge even greater for international organisations, governments and all relevant stakeholders. Moreover, when the health crisis hit, progress towards development goals was already patchy. The impacts of the pandemic and the consequences of the lack of progress in certain areas are mutually reinforcing, and require a combination of immediate responses to the damage done by COVID-19 and broader, longer-term efforts aimed at increasing resilience to future crises of similar proportions.
Topic:
United Nations, Sustainable Development Goals, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13920. The COVID-19 pandemic: Scenarios to Understand the International Impact

Author:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 spread around the world in a matter of a few short months in 2020. Its long-term effects, as well as the ultimate duration and severity of the pandemic itself, are marked by deep uncertainty. While it is too early to forecast the consequences of COVID-19 with precision, it is possible to systematically explore plausible trajectories for the medium-term future. This research paper uses scenarios to address the following question: what could be the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global political, economic and military balance of power over the course of the next five years? The paper focuses on six clusters of drivers of change to build scenarios. In the realm of politics, the two clusters are governance and geopolitics. The governance cluster straddles the divide of domestic and international politics, combining social cohesion in societies, populism as a political force, the role of the state, nationalism and state capacity. The geopolitics cluster focuses on aspects of international leadership and alliances. In the economic arena, clusters formed around the themes of economic reordering and recovery. In the former, regionalism, protectionism, supply-chain dynamics and Chinese technological leadership are considered. In the latter, the pace of the recovery is set in the context of employment, public debt, finance and energy issues. In the military realm, drivers relating to armed conflict and to military posture were combined to form clusters. The armed-conflict cluster considers projections for threat perceptions, major-power war, conflict among middle powers and intra-state violence. Military posture is captured by examining issues around force projection, the digitisation of armed forces, defence-industrial dynamics, strategic stability and the role of nuclear weapons. Scenarios in this paper are not designed to predict the future, but they are meant to help bound the range of possible futures for which decision-makers may need to prepare. In the scenario Silver Linings, geopolitics in 2025 are characterised by cooperation and the recession of domestic governance challenges. The economic recovery was swift and comprehensive, and although the pandemic modified aspects of globalisation its basic tenets remained intact. Armed conflict of the inter-state and intra-state kind has declined, and military postures are increasingly driven by advanced technologies and a smaller number of overseas operations. In the Downfall scenario, a weakened societal fabric has generated governance challenges at home and geopolitics are characterised by conflict. Economic recovery following the collapse triggered by the pandemic remains slow and incomplete, and economic reordering leads to the fragmentation of pre-existing international ties at the state and commercial levels. Great-power war has become a realistic probability and growing state fragility brought about by the pandemic leads to an increase in armed conflict. The scenario Lost in Transition is full of countervailing forces introducing challenges and a sense of instability. In the realm of politics, the geopolitical situation is marred by conflict, but domestic governance structures are not particularly challenged. Economically, recovery is slow and there are attempts to decouple − leading to bifurcated economic activity − with each strand led by China and the United States respectively. Militarily, new alliances emerge but a key concern is the near-perfect storm that the pandemic has created for security and stability in Africa. The scenario Home Alone outlines a future world in which the economic recovery is highly uneven. Attempts to generate momentum for renewed international cooperation fail as great-power rivalries intensify – however, the European Union emerges as a more confident geopolitical actor. Globalisation is disrupted by a drive to create regional and local supply chains and China forces a bifurcation of production for some sectors. Armed conflict linked to state fragility increases markedly, while the ability and willingness of international actors to provide humanitarian assistance and crisis-management resources fall dramatically. The pandemic itself is an event of world-shattering proportions. Yet many of its political and military implications are likely to be evolutionary in nature. In the period considered here, the potential for radical change (and a break with past practice and assumptions) is perhaps greatest in the economic realm. Furthermore, the scenarios can be helpful in recognising courses of actions that appear to be robust in the sense that they would appear to yield beneficial results across a range of alternative futures. Of course, even ‘future history’ marches on and it will remain crucial to consider the impact of unfolding events to maintain a sense of the direction of travel. The scenario implications will be useful to policymakers seeking to identify particular developments that may be desirable or undesirable. This will in turn facilitate discussion about the levers available and the extent to which such developments can be influenced. The most important point to take away from a European perspective is that across the scenarios a coherent and cohesive Europe is a prerequisite to exploit opportunities and avoid becoming, if not the battleground, than at least the playground for the political and economic policies of others.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13921. COVID-19 and the battle against poverty in the Southern Cone

Author:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In the third in a series analysing the ways COVID-19 is affecting stability across the world, this paper explores how governments in the Southern Cone of Latin America have responded to the devastating impact of the pandemic on poverty and social indicators in the region. The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a huge human, economic and social toll in Latin America − and the Southern Cone in particular − against a backdrop of high levels of informality and urbanisation, underdeveloped social-security nets, and fragmented and underfunded healthcare systems. Despite fiscal constraints, most countries in the Southern Cone have been quick to adopt fiscal-stimulus packages to mitigate the impact of the economic downturn on the most vulnerable. Countries with pre-existing, effective social-safety nets have proven more successful at fighting pandemic-induced poverty. Looking beyond the immediate measures, the pandemic has highlighted the need to address poverty in a durable way in the region. This can be achieved in part by establishing more sustainable development models that emphasise inclusivity.
Topic:
Poverty, Social Services, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America

13922. The Strategic and Geo-economic Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 will have enduring effects on geopolitics and geo-economics in the Middle East, the Gulf and beyond. In this IISS Manama Dialogue 2020 Special Publication we explore the regional and global implications of the pandemic, including essays on Gulf defence economics, global and great-power politics, the Gulf states’ development models, strategy and geo-economics.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13923. Defeating Threat Air Defences: the Return of the DEAD

Author:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
For the past two decades the US and its allies have faced a very limited surface-to-air threat in wars in which they have engaged. This is now changing as the worsening security environment and the emergence of near-peer rivals once again raises the spectre of a strongly contested air domain. A central element of the renewed challenge is the surface-to-air missile (SAM) system. China and Russia have fielded and continue to develop SAM systems across all range categories – and to offer many of these for export – that pose a credible threat to air operations. The US, and to an even greater extent the Europeans, have reduced emphasis and expenditure on what is known as the suppression of enemy air defence (SEAD) role. Counter-insurgency rather than counter-integrated air-defence operations have been the priority since the turn of the century. There is now, however, the renewed challenge of being able to carry out air operations in airspace defended by the latest generations of point-, short-, medium- and long-range SAM systems. Low-observable aircraft only offer a partial solution, particularly as the US and its allies will operate mixed fleets of stealthy and non-stealthy combat aircraft at least until around the middle of the century. The latter types of aircraft remain at greater risk from SAM threats than low-observable aircraft, and their operational utility will depend partly on the wider capacity to counter surface-based threat missile systems. SEAD is an asset-intensive capability, particularly in the early days of a conflict, and has traditionally involved dedicated platforms as well as fighter ground-attack aircraft. In SEAD operations in the 1990s, such as Operation Allied Force during the 1999 Kosovo conflict, up to one-third of strike missions were tasked against ground-based air defences. While the force mix will change as uninhabited systems are increasingly adopted in the inventory, a variety of crewed and uninhabited aircraft and associated weaponry will still be required for the task, and will be required in numbers greater than are available in current inventories if faced by a peer or near-peer threat. Collating what is known as an electronic order of battle against peer and near-peer rivals should once again become a priority, as should the capacity to counter, disable or destroy surface-to-air threat systems.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

13924. The impact of COVID-19 on organised crime in the Western Balkans

Author:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The fourth in a series analysing the ways COVID-19 is affecting stability across the world, this paper explores the impact on organised crime in the Western Balkans of the health and economic crisis brought about by the pandemic. Criminal organisations active in the Western Balkans have proved very apt at exploiting the evolution of the pandemic and related government responses to expand their activities regionally and globally. The key role played by the European Union in recent times to promote the rule of law and institutional reforms against organised crime in the region is at risk of setback given its limited economic firepower post-COVID-19 and China’s increasing influence through its economic and investment diplomacy. Law-enforcement agencies will struggle to prevent criminal groups from further infiltrating the region’s economies amid increasing budgetary constraints. Western Balkans governments should use the current challenging circumstances as an opportunity to redefine medium- and long-term priorities in their efforts against organised crime. However, for these efforts to be successful, the sustained political and operational support of other countries will be needed, given the expanding international reach of regional criminal groups.
Topic:
Political stability, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Balkans

13925. China's Rise as a Global Security Actor: Implications for NATO

Author:
Meia Nouwens and Helena Legarda
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In December 2019, for the first time, NATO leaders recognised China as a new strategic point of focus for the Alliance. This reflects growing concern among NATO members surrounding China’s geopolitical rise and its growing power-projection capabilities, as well as the impact that these may have on the global balance of power. Today, China is not only taking a central role in Indo-Pacific security affairs but is also becoming an increasingly visible security actor in Europe’s periphery. As such, the question of how to deal with an increasingly global China has been an important part of Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s NATO 2030 reflection process. China poses a wide range of challenges to NATO. Beijing sees the Alliance as a United States-centric outfit that may be used by Washington to contain China, and has therefore tried to influence individual NATO members’ decisions in order to weaken the Alliance’s unity. Close ties between China and Russia, especially in the security and military spheres, have also been a source of concern for NATO allies. Besides the Chinese and Russian navies’ joint exercises in the Baltic and Mediterranean seas, there is also the potential for the two sides to further coordinate – or at least align their behaviour – on issues of relevance to the Alliance, including hybrid warfare and cyber espionage, arms-control issues, and their approach to Arctic governance, among others. China’s defence spending and military-modernisation process, along with the growing strength of its defence industry, have led to the proliferation of more advanced military platforms around the world. Beijing is also expanding its stockpile of missiles, some of which have the range to reach NATO countries. China’s military-power-projection capabilities have likewise edged towards Europe as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has expanded its international presence over the last few years. While NATO allies may have agreed that China presents a number of challenges to the Alliance’s security, they have yet to achieve consensus on how to address them. Some of these issues lie beyond NATO’s traditional areas of competence and will require expertise best provided by partners of the Alliance rather than the Alliance itself. NATO allies will need to prioritise how, when, where and with which partners to use their combined resources to deal with them. At the same time, the Alliance acknowledges that China is not its adversary. NATO thus must find areas of common interest where it can continue to cooperate with China, albeit with a more clear-eyed approach than it has done in the past. Addressing the opportunities and problems posed by China as a cohesive alliance will be more important than ever.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
China, Europe, North Atlantic, Asia, and North America

13926. Promoting and Projecting Stability: Challenges and Perspectives

Author:
Amanda Lapo, Bastain Giegerich, and James Hackett
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The ambition to promote stability and foster peace in an increasingly volatile security environment is an established element of EU and NATO policy. There is a risk that the coronavirus pandemic will increase the demand for stabilisation measures while at the same time complicating their supply. This paper focuses on the role that military and security actors can play in supporting stabilisation efforts. The ambition to promote stability and foster peace in an increasingly volatile security environment is an established element of European Union and NATO policy. This ambition is also reflected in many of their member states’ national-level policy and strategy documents. The direction and implementation of these policies are influenced by a range of motivations including security worries, humanitarian concerns and historical ties. Stability is a challenging endeavour at the best of times, and there is a risk that the coronavirus pandemic will increase the demand for it while at the same time complicating its supply.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Political stability, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

13927. Comrades in Arms: Military Masculinities in East German Culture

Author:
Tom Smith
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Berghahn Books
Abstract:
Without question, the East German National People’s Army was a profoundly masculine institution that emphasized traditional ideals of stoicism, sacrifice, and physical courage. Nonetheless, as this innovative study demonstrates, depictions of the military in the film and literature of the GDR were far more nuanced and ambivalent. Departing from past studies that have found in such portrayals an unchanging, idealized masculinity, Comrades in Arms shows how cultural works both before and after reunification place violence, physical vulnerability, and military theatricality, as well as conscripts’ powerful emotions and desires, at the center of soldiers’ lives and the military institution itself.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Culture, Military Affairs, Institutions, and Masculinity
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and East Germany

13928. After the Trump “Peace Plan”: One-State Solution is the Only Way Forward

Author:
Diana Buttu
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Last month, a Palestinian think tank, the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research, revealed its survey results following the release of the Trump/Netanyahu plan. In announcing the results, Dr Khalil Shikaki, the head of the polling centre, noted that 94 percent of Palestinian respondents opposed the plan: “I don't think we've ever seen such a level of consensus among the Palestinian public,” he said. These results are unsurprising, of course, as the Trump/Netanyahu plan effectively seeks Palestinian approval for Israeli land theft, ethnic cleansing and continued subjugation. But alongside the results of the question pertaining to the Trump/Netanyahu plan was a more important question: “Do you support the two-state solution?” A mere 39 percent of surveyed respondents answered affirmatively, while 37 percent indicated that they support a one-state solution. These results should be placed in their proper light: for more than two decades, as the Palestinian leadership and the international community have repeatedly called for the implementation of the two-state solution, increasing numbers of Palestinians have moved away from this view and increasingly supported one state, even though there is not a single Palestinian party – whether inside ‘48 borders or in the occupied territories – advocating for it. In fact, Palestinian leaders and the international community both espouse the common view of decrying the concept of one state and adamantly holding that “There is no Plan B.” The reason for this steadily increasing Palestinian support for one state has both everything and nothing to do with the Trump/Netanyahu plan. This plan makes clear that it aims to ensure that Palestinians will never have a state and instead remain forever under Israel’s boot. But it isn’t just the Trump plan. Over time, Palestinians increasingly have seen that the version of “two states” that the international community will support – and indeed press for – is not the version of two states that Palestinians demand. To the contrary, while the world spoke of a two-state settlement, Palestinians witnessed a tripling of the number of Israeli settlers living on their land. The international community appears content with allowing Israel to build and expand settlements, while at the same time allowing it to demolish Palestinian homes and schools and imprison Palestinians into cantons. This approach condones Israel holding our economy hostage and mercilessly besieging the Gaza Strip, with only the mildest, mealy-mouthed international condemnations. The world community has blocked attempts to press for a condemnation of Israeli settlements in the International Criminal Court and has, in some cases, criminalized support for boycott, divestment and sanctions (BDS). Even the European Union has been loath to uphold its trade agreement with Israel, under which Israeli settlement products should be labelled separately and should not benefit from free trade status. It has become clear that while the international community speaks of wanting a two-state settlement, it has shown itself wholly unwilling to do anything to make that happen. As someone who participated in the peace negotiations, I observed that a state for Palestinians was the furthest thing from the Israeli public and political leadership’s thinking. Instead, they were concerned with how to forever contain and control Palestinians, and how to maintain longstanding international community support in this endeavour. In short, the concept of two states has become devoid of all meaning, with the focus instead on form – whether labelled as a “state” and however dysfunctional and lacking any of the powers that actually define a state. This increasing realization has led many Palestinians to abandon the statehood project. This may sound like a defeatist position or the expression of frustration. Indeed, over the years, we have heard PLO leaders threaten to abandon the two-state project and, separately, threaten to dissolve the Palestinian Authority. Some support for one state is undoubtedly borne of that feeling. But not all. To be clear, my support for one state grew not from the futility of negotiations – even though they were indeed futile – but from a sense that the approach was incorrect. The attempt to divide land simply modelled the power structures I was attempting to fight – economic and political structures that aim to maintain Israeli power and control over Palestinians lives. Therefore, rather than focus on land – where Israel always has an advantage –, the focus should be on people and how we, as people, should live. The time has come to look to a model that focuses on equal rights for all, irrespective of religion; a model which seeks reconciliation and not separation and where people are protected and not viewed as subjects of control or, in the case of refugees, of wholesale and heartless exclusion. Today Israel and the occupied territories function as one territory, with rights and privileges granted to some and not to others. There are no separate border crossings for “Palestine” and no separate Palestinian currency. Yet Palestinians, including Palestinian citizens of Israel, are denied the same rights and privileges as Israeli Jews. I am under no illusion that achieving this equality will be easy. Power is never voluntarily given up by those who wield it but taken through pressing for rights. Palestinians will be better able to break down the system of ethnic-religious privilege that plagues Palestinians (a similar system ruled apartheid South Africa) by getting to the root cause – that of Zionism, a nationalist project that favours one group over another –, by pushing for BDS and for accountability internationally and by challenging racist Israeli laws. In short, we can and must create a just system for all, irrespective of whether we demand one or two states. History demonstrates that ethnic privilege ultimately fails in a multi-ethnic world. And given that Palestinians and Israelis are fated to live together, the real question is whether we will continue to allow this system of ethno-religious privilege to prevail or whether we will press for equality, irrespective of religion. Borders, flags, and currencies can wait.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Borders, Peace, and Settlements
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

13929. After the Trump “Peace Plan”: Two Perspectives on Palestinian Options

Author:
Diana Buttu and Mouin Rabbani
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The “Peace Plan” presented by Trump and his administration as the ultimate solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been overwhelmingly rejected by Palestinians and their leadership. But what comes next? What strategy should Palestinians adopt? These two papers, written by two leading Palestinian analysts, lay out two distinct approaches for attaining Palestinian rights and aspirations. Diana Buttu argues that it is time for Palestinians to push for a one-state solution focusing on equal rights for all, while Mouin Rabbani contends that a one-state approach will not succeed given the current power dynamics and, therefore, favours a renewed Palestinian strategy to preserve the pre-Trump international consensus focused on the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the territories occupied by Israel in 1967 and a just resolution of the refugee question.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Borders, Peace, and Settlements
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

13930. After the Trump “Peace Plan”: Ending the Occupation is the Priority

Author:
Mouin Rabbani
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
It is incontestable that a unitary state encompassing all of historic Palestine in which Palestinians and Israelis live in full equality represents the preferred resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Assuming this entity guarantees both individual and communal parity, and satisfactorily resolves the refugee question, it would achieve the fundamental Palestinian right to national self-determination and be consistent with the broader Palestinian aspiration of greater Arab integration. It is also irrefutable that a democratic one-state outcome in Palestine cannot be achieved without the disestablishment of Zionism, and specifically Israel’s renunciation of the core principles of Jewish political supremacy, demographic superiority, and territorial hegemony that have guided state policy since 1948. The cost-benefit calculation required for a one-state solution is thus one where Israel’s rulers determine that the price of maintaining a Zionist state has become unacceptably high and choose to relinquish it. In practice, there is no political pathway to such a resolution. Israel’s elites, and the overwhelming majority of its Jewish citizens from across the political spectrum, will contemplate a future without Zionism only as a consequence of decisive military defeat. Even then, the temptation of Israel’s leaders to rely on their nuclear arsenal to avert defeat – the so-called Samson option – cannot be dismissed. In view of the geopolitical realities which reinforce, rather than challenge, the prevailing balance of power between Israel and the Palestinians, the only one-state solutions currently on offer are those proposed by the United States in its January 2020 diplomatic initiative, and by the radical Israeli right whose agenda has been embraced by Washington. In other words, proponents of a unitary secular democratic state in Palestine who are unable to offer a credible military strategy for achieving it are dealing in unattainable illusions rather than feasible solutions. The dynamics that have produced these realities may well change, but the current state of the Palestinian national movement and the broader region suggests this will consume decades, not years. It should also be noted that economic pressure – far exceeding that exerted by the BDS movement – has had a particularly poor impact on regime change during the past century, and can play a secondary role at best. How, then, can and should the Palestinians respond to Washington’s latest proposal to formalize permanent Israeli control over the Palestinian people? Should they just abandon the two-state framework in hopes of an eventual democratic unified state? Widely condemned as the institutionalization of apartheid, the Trump-Netanyahu Plan, in fact, goes far beyond the model of structural racism devised by the white minority regime in South Africa. Israel seeks not to exploit a captive population, but rather to achieve its eventual permanent removal. Indeed, this Plan goes so far as to recommend changing the legal status of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian citizens of Israel to residents of a Palestinian entity that will be occupied territory in all but name. The Trump-Netanyahu Plan offers nothing to the Palestinians, neither presently nor in the future, and does not even pretend to do so. It was transparently devised to accomplish each and every Israeli strategic objective at the expense of all Palestinian rights, rather than lay the basis for meaningful negotiations between the two parties in which the core interests of each are met within the framework of international legality. The measures Washington has already undertaken concerning Jerusalem, Palestinian refugees, the PLO, settlements, the legal status of the occupied territories and other issues reveal this agenda and require no further comment or analysis. It is thus imperative that the various Palestinian leaderships categorically refuse any interaction – whether direct or indirect – with this initiative, as such dealings will only serve to legitimize it and provide cover for regional and international parties to seriously engage with it. The strategic purpose and primary threat of the Trump-Netanyahu plan is to transform the international consensus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For better or worse, this consensus comprises the inadmissibility of territorial conquest, the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the territories occupied by Israel in 1967, living at peace with Israel within its 1949 boundaries, and a just resolution of the refugee question. Against this, Washington and Tel Aviv propose a resolution of the conflict on the basis that might makes right, that rights are irrelevant, and that international law is of no consequence. Rather than mobilize alongside the United States and Israel to denounce the international consensus of a two-state framework and demand its replacement, even if for radically different reasons and objectives, and to promote goals which - as noted above - are simply unattainable, Palestinians should do everything within their power to preserve, mobilize, and activate this consensus and present it as the litmus test for the preservation of the international order Washington is seeking to systematically dismantle. Indeed, under current circumstances, the only alternative is a one-state solution, which would permanently remove Palestinian national rights from the international agenda. One may not be enthusiastic about the two-state paradigm, but it would be dishonest to deny that the purpose of the Trump-Netanyahu plan is to replace it with something much worse. The above notwithstanding, to frame the Palestinian debate as a choice between a one-state solution and two-state settlement misses the point, and is today somewhat akin to a condemned prisoner spending the night before his execution agonizing over whether to spend next summer on the French or Italian Riviera. The core issue in 2020 is not about the form of eventual statehood, but rather about upholding the principle that Israel has no right to incorporate territories that international law and the international community consider to be occupied, and that its continued rule in these territories is both illegal and illegitimate. In contrast to a democratic one-state outcome, there are political avenues to ending the occupation that do not require the military resources that neither the Palestinians nor their regional allies currently possess. The cost-benefit calculation for ending the blockade of the Gaza Strip, reversing settlement expansion in the West Bank, and terminating the occupation does not require the wholesale transformation of the Israeli state. Yet, compelling Israel to dismantle the settlement enterprise and to withdraw from the occupied territories rather than annex them may – in the process – transform the state and establish pathways that in time would produce better outcomes It is commonplace to characterize the Trump administration approach to the Question of Palestine as a radical departure from traditional US policy. While this is true in certain respects, it is perhaps more useful to understand the Trump-Netanyahu Plan as the logical culmination of seven decades of US Middle East policy, and of the Oslo agreements, which never envisioned an end to occupation nor the realization of Palestinian self-determination, in particular. The prevalence of this reality and this debate attest above all to the extraordinarily weakened position in which the Palestinian people find themselves. Surpassing it will be particularly difficult, but is by no means impossible. First and foremost, Palestinians must resolve their internal differences and establish a unified national movement led by a credible leadership, with a clear strategy to disentangle from the matrix of control established by the Oslo agreements, as well as to mobilize Palestinians and their regional and international allies and supporters. Palestine needs to become a cause that stands above and beyond regional rivalries once again, rather than a political pawn used by petty autocrats for trivial advantage. It needs to once again become a primary issue on the international agenda, and a global litmus test for justice and decency, rather than a secondary dispute in a region roiled by conflict. In doing so it will also be able to rely on greater levels of popular support than perhaps ever before. A mobilized Palestinian national movement, capable of activating and – where necessary – coercing the support of regional governments, and deploying their collective wherewithal in the international arena, can successfully implement a combination of popular, political, economic, legal, and even military strategies to effectively challenge Israel’s occupation, and in critical instances compel foreign states to do the right thing out of self-interest. The Palestinians today are experiencing an existential moment. This is not a time to pursue the impossible at the expense of survival.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Occupation, Peace, and Settlements
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

13931. Syria’s Growing Economic Woes: Lebanon’s Crisis, the Caesar Act and Now the Coronavirus

Author:
Jihad Yazigi
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The already bleak prospects of the Syrian economy have worsened in recent months with the Lebanon crisis, the enactment of the Caesar Act and now the coronavirus pandemic. This paper examines their impact on the Syrian economy and the population at large. While the cumulative impact is hard to assess at this stage, Syria’s population will remain heavily dependent on the international humanitarian effort. The future of this effort will itself depend on major donor countries whose own economies are likely to emerge weakened from the coronavirus pandemic.
Topic:
Economics, Public Health, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

13932. Morocco: Can the PJD Still Absorb Popular Anger?

Author:
Mohammed Masbah
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The Moroccan monarchy has used political parties, including the PJD, to legitimize the country’s authoritarian political process and structure, and to absorb social and political anger. This paper argues that putting the parties at the frontline without sufficient capacity to enact deep reforms weakens them as a shield against growing popular frustration. While this approach may work in the short term, it risks the country’s stability in the long term.
Topic:
Social Movement, Authoritarianism, Political stability, Protests, Political Parties, and Monarchy
Political Geography:
Africa and Morocco

13933. The Future of the Algerian Hirak Following the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Dris Nouri
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Algeria has forced the Algerian popular Hirak to suspend demonstrations that continued without interruption for over a year despite the authorities’ various manoeuvres to disrupt them. This paper examines the Algerian authorities’ attempt to exploit the suspension of the protests to deal with the Hirak and assesses the ability of the popular movement to overcome this period.
Topic:
Protests, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Oppression
Political Geography:
Africa and Algeria

13934. After the Pandemic: Reimagining the Role of State and Non-State Actors in (Re)building National Health Systems in the Arab World

Author:
Fadi El-Jardali
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
In the Arab region, countries have become increasingly dependent on non-state actors, notably the private sector, for healthcare provision and any response that includes the State alone may not be sufficient to address the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper explores how state and non-state actors in Arab countries have collaborated so far and suggests ways forward to ensure quality healthcare services for all.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Governance, Health Care Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Middle East

13935. Tunisia Facing COVID-19: To Exceptional Circumstances, Exceptional Measures?

Author:
Eya Jrad
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
With COVID-19, Tunisia is dealing with an unprecedented emergency that is testing its newly established democratic institutions. This paper explores how Tunisia’s different institutions have responded so far to the crisis, and sheds light on how each is trying to assert its role under the exceptional circumstances imposed by the pandemic.
Topic:
Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

13936. Testing for COVID-19: What Should Lebanon Do?

Author:
Fatima Al Sayah
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Testing for COVID-19 is globally supported but is approached differently from country to country. This paper outlines Lebanon’s approach to testing so far and asks crucial questions about what the country can do at this stage given its limited testing resources, fragmented and under-financed healthcare system and dire economic circumstances.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

13937. Is the Worst Part Behind Us? Epidemiology, Data and Lebanon’s COVID-19 Response

Author:
Sirine Anouti
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Data from Lebanon suggests that the country is experiencing a significant decrease in COVID-19 spread. Epidemiologists are monitoring to see if infection rates remain low for at least two incubation periods before declaring a successful containment. The lockdown strategy has come at a great cost to middle-to-low income groups given the absence of any social safety measure and the sustainability of lockdown measures will require urgent relief support.
Topic:
Public Health, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

13938. Will COVID-19 Mark the Endgame for Iraq’s Muhasasa Ta'ifia?

Author:
Ahmed Tabaqchali
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Iraq’s sectarian-based political system has depended on oil rents since 2003 to ensure its legitimacy and buy loyalty. Already running out of steam and challenged by protesters, it faces a major new test due to the drop in oil prices caused by the COVID-19 crisis. Unable to maintain its expensive patronage system, and in the absence of any real political reform, the days of the Muhasasa Ta’ifia may be running out.
Topic:
Reform, Protests, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

13939. Mapping Algerian Trade Unions in the Time of Mass Mobilization: Current Dynamics and Future Challenges

Author:
Nacer Djabi
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Algeria has a long and rich history of trade union activism. With the 2019 Hirak, independent unions have participated and supported the protest movement’s demands for regime change, yet achieved only limited success in mobilizing their base. This paper explores the evolution of unions in Algeria and the factors that precluded their full participation in the Hirak. It highlights the need for unions to move beyond a culture of narrow sectoral demands if they are to play a role in the democratic transition.
Topic:
Political Activism, Reform, Unions, and Mobilization
Political Geography:
Africa and Algeria

13940. Lebanon: Managing COVID-19 in the Time of Revolution

Author:
Ishac Diwan and Joelle M. Abi-Rached
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic in Lebanon is a crisis within a crisis. It occurred amidst a broader socio-economic meltdown that has shaken the country in recent months. While Lebanon appears to have responded effectively to the pandemic so far, a number of major challenges await it. With little measures to mitigate the economic impact of the confinement and protesters pushing to return to the streets, the country is entering an extremely volatile period. The only way out will be through measures that address the sanitary as well as underlying socio-economic issues that are threatening the entire country.
Topic:
Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

13941. Can Tunisia Shake Off “Business as Usual” Following Covid-19?

Author:
Salma Houerbi
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The consequences of Covid-19 on Tunisia’s already fragile economy are bound to exacerbate existing social tensions. The government has rolled out a series of socio-economic measures to support individual entrepreneurs and businesses to maintain jobs and incomes across all sectors. This paper argues that the government’s support to the private sector represents a golden opportunity to rectify longstanding problems in state-business relations and institute a culture of corporate accountability. But to do so, the government should place the Covid-19 response within a broader effort to address the persistent and systemic challenges the country faces from corruption to rent-seeking to vulnerable workers’ conditions.
Topic:
Public Health, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

13942. Covid-19 and a Deepening Conflict Worsen Libya's Humanitarian Situation

Author:
Khayreddine Basha
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The military conflict between Haftar and GNA forces in Libya continues to escalate, unaffected by Covid-19 or international calls for a ceasefire. A lack of coordination between the fighting parties and the ineffective implementation of measures to fight the spread of the pandemic further compound Libya’s worsening humanitarian situation. This paper explores Covid-19 impact on the health and humanitarian situation in Libya and examines the factors that contribute to the continuation of the conflict, including the incitement of international and regional actors involved in it.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, Public Health, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

13943. Sudan: Managing COVID-19 Pandemic During a Time of Transition

Author:
Ezman Kunna
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Sudan’s current transitional government has inherited a fragile health system that suffered years of neglect and underinvestment. The spread of COVID-19 poses important challenges to the country’s health and political structures. This Q&A looks at how Sudan’s government and non-government actors are faring against the spread of the pandemic and the impact of the lockdown on the political transition in the country.
Topic:
Political stability, Public Health, Pandemic, Transition, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

13944. Lebanon: Government Recovery Plan Asks Too Much of Ordinary Lebanese, and Not Enough from Elites

Author:
Sami Halabi
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Facing an economy in free-fall, the Lebanese government has finally adopted a financial recovery plan that it has sent to the IMF and international donors. This paper argues that the plan fails to introduce strong accountability measures to address rampant corruption and mismanagement and does not tackle widespread inequality which could be done through a better distribution of losses and the introduction of more progressive taxation. Despite the government’s stated promise to “protect the poorest segments of the population from the dire consequences of the crisis”, the paper expects the plan to inevitably harm Lebanon’s poorest as well as its middle class.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Recovery
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

13945. Tunisia: New Government, New Dynamics?

Author:
Zied Boussen
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
After months of negotiation, Tunisia’s parliament voted in a government like no other since 2011. Headed by a prime minister whose party is not represented in parliament and with more than half of the ministers independent or new to government office, it is the first since 2011 that is not a “national unity” government. This paper examines this new Tunisian political landscape, the relationship between the prime minister and Tunisia’s president, and looks at the impact of this configuration on the ability of the new government to carry out long-awaited reforms.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, Political stability, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

13946. Iran’s Regional Role in the Arab World and Iranian State-Society Relations

Author:
Mahjoob Zweiri
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Iran’s regional role in MENA is influenced by the evolution of its state-society relations and shifts within its state institutions. This paper argues that the growing regional role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a reflection of the militarization and securitization of the Iranian political system. Conversely, frustration by segments of the Iranian population with the political system’s inability to deliver economically has increasingly manifested itself in criticism and contestation of the regime’s regional role.
Topic:
Civil Society, Regional Cooperation, Authoritarianism, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

13947. Syria Torture Trial in Germany is an Arab Issue: Where are the Arab Media and Human Rights Organizations?

Author:
Mansour Omari
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The opening in Germany of the trial of two Syrian security officers accused of crimes against humanity was marked by the absence of regional Arab interest, despite its importance for the fight against impunity in MENA. This paper seeks to understand this lack of coverage by Arab media and the absence of interest from national as well as regional Arab human rights organizations, and highlights the implications of the trial for Syria as well as MENA’s struggle for accountability.
Topic:
Human Rights, Non State Actors, Media, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

13948. In the Footsteps of Martin Luther King: Will We Witness a Revolution Against Racial Discrimination in the Middle East?

Author:
Saad Salloum
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Afro-Iraqis, who number around 400,000, continue to suffer from racial discrimination and marginalization despite their repeated attempts to demand equality. This paper shows the struggle of black people in Iraq through the struggle and activism of Jalal Dhiab, founder of the Free Iraqi Movement, to restore a forgotten revolution and awaken an identity that has long been marginalized in Arab historical writings, in order to defend the rights of this minority and to combat racial discrimination against it in Iraq.
Topic:
Social Movement, Minorities, Discrimination, Protests, and Racism
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

13949. Tunisia: In Tataouine, Socio-Economic Marginalization Is a Time Bomb

Author:
Alessandra Bajec
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Despite being rich in oil and gas, Tataouine in the south of Tunisia has remained severely underdeveloped and marginalized, pushing its inhabitants, time and again, to protest for reinvestment of its wealth in infrastructure and local jobs. This paper examines the underlying drivers of the ongoing unrest in Tataouine, the heavy-handed response of the security forces, and the successive Tunisian governments’ broken pledges to address the region’s socio-economic marginalization.
Topic:
Governance, Accountability, Marginalization, Socioeconomics, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

13950. Syria: Sanctions Should Not Be Lifted, but They Must Be Improved

Author:
Genevieve Zingg
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
While not the chief cause of Syria’s economic crisis, sanctions have exacerbated difficulties faced by the Syrian people – in particular as new humanitarian needs arise from the Covid-19 pandemic. This paper argues that sanctions are essential to sustain pressure in the pursuit of justice and accountability and should be maintained but that they must be improved to allow for a more effective use of humanitarian exemptions and to lessen their negative impacts on the Syrian people.
Topic:
Sanctions, Public Health, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

13951. How Demographics Erode the Patronage Buying Power of Iraq’s Muhasasa Ta’ifia

Author:
Ahmed Tabaqchali
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Iraq’s post-2003 political order, characterized by Muhasasa Ta’ifia with political sectarian elites using employment in public services to strengthen clientelism, has become economically unsustainable. The author’s earlier paper for the Arab Reform Initiative examined the impact of the drop in oil prices on the system. This article examines how Iraq’s growing demography erodes the patronage buying power of the sectarian elites, even though spending on clientelism has mushroomed over the years.
Topic:
Demographics, Inequality, and Elites
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

13952. No Homeland, No Future: Alawite Youth As the Backbone of the Assad Regime

Author:
Alimar Lazkani
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
impacted by the conflict and deteriorating living conditions. This paper examines their reality and the evolution of some of their political views through on the ground research and interviews. It notes that an increasing number of Alawite youth have grown disillusioned and some go as far as voicing discontent in private discussions because they see the regime as having failed to provide them with basic living arrangements. However, it is hard to determine the prevalence of such discontent due to research limitations and the entrenched fear of the security apparatus.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Youth, Accountability, and Quality of Life
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

13953. Diasporas: A Global and Vibrant Force for Arab Democratization

Author:
Amine Al-Sharif
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The Arab Spring was to sound the death knell of the decades-old authoritarian regimes plaguing the Arab world. In the end, only Egypt and Tunisia underwent a democratic transition, and only the Tunisian people succeeded in establishing a real, albeit still fragile, democracy. This regional experience illustrates the difficulty to spur democratic change in Arab countries. A lot of actors are involved in these complex processes, such as the political elite, the army, and foreign states. On top of these, Arab diasporas are also an important player, who can play an even more influential role by self-organizing. What are their actual and potential means of action, and how can self-organizing enhance their influence? Arab diasporas consist of all the Arab people permanently settled in a foreign country who have kept ties with their motherland. These populations, estimated at around 50 million individuals, are highly heterogenous: they are concentrated in Brazil, Western Europe, the United States and Gulf countries; some hold businesses that have thrived, others hold blue-collar jobs; some are conservatives, others modern-minded. And sometimes, they represent an important share of their motherland’s population. The Lebanese and Palestinian diasporas are estimated to comprise more than half of their own populations, making them de facto important players in national politics. Full-fledged democratization in the Arab world is the result of a popular uprising, a transition from authoritarianism to democracy, and a consolidation of democracy. Arab diasporas can contribute to all these stages by engaging in six strategic fields, namely: the civic, media, artistic, entrepreneurial, political, and intellectual ones.
Topic:
Democratization, Social Movement, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Africa and Middle East

13954. Local Authorities in Tunisia Face Challenges of Post-COVID Economic Recovery

Author:
Afef Hammami Marrakchi
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
What role can local authorities in Tunisia play as part of the country’s response to Covid-19? This paper examines the opportunities offered to Tunisian municipalities (communes) by the Local Government Act but also the real constraints – human, logistical, and financial – that these new devolved structures face as they seek to play a key role in the recovery.
Topic:
Recovery, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

13955. Egypt after the Coronavirus: Back to Square One

Author:
Ishac Diwan, Nadim Houry, and Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Egypt’s recent security and macro-economic stabilization has been built on weak foundations and Covid-19 has further exposed this fragility. Egypt is now back to a situation broadly similar to that before the 2011 revolution: stable on the surface, but with deep structural problems and simmering social grievances, and little buffers to mitigate them. This paper argues for a major shift in the ways the country is currently governed in favour of greater openness in politics and markets, and for the international community to seriously engage Egypt on the need to reform economically and politically.
Topic:
Security, Arab Spring, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

13956. Ending Denial: Anti-Black Racism in Morocco

Author:
Stephen J. King
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Morocco is a diverse country that has yet to come to terms with its own black population and the impact of centuries of the trans-Sahara slave trade. Diversity, the history of slavery in Morocco, and the racism that is generally inherent in post-slave societies are not openly discussed and often denied by non-Blacks. This paper examines the efforts of black Moroccans to tell the stories of racial discrimination against them as a first step in an attempt to raise awareness, pierce the taboos and end the denial surrounding anti-black racism in Morocco.
Topic:
Minorities, Political Activism, Discrimination, and Racism
Political Geography:
Africa and Morocco

13957. What Has Changed in Policing since the Arab Uprisings of 2011? Challenges to Reform and Next Steps

Author:
Alex Walsh
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Since 2011, the police have been at the centre of the contestation rocking the Arab world. Part 1 mapped out some of the main modes of contestation and provided a preliminary assessment of their impact on police practices. This paper examines what is still holding up police reform attempts, presents possible future scenarios for policing practices in the region, and assesses the role of donor states, notably Europe, in supporting security sector reforms in MENA
Topic:
Social Movement, Reform, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Africa and Middle East

13958. Eliminating the Protests? The Motives and Circumstances of Basra Assassinations

Author:
Yaseen Taha Mohammed
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Since the October 2019 protests calling for reform and an end to corruption, the Iraqi city of Basra has been the scene of a chilling spree of assassinations of activists. To date, no one has yet been held to account for these crimes that have spread fear in protestors’ ranks. This paper highlights the profile of the activists, the circumstances of the killings, and the possible motives behind them in the context of Iranian influence in Iraq, the approaching anniversary of the protests and the elections scheduled for next year.
Topic:
Social Movement, Political Activism, Elections, State Violence, Protests, and Assassination
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

13959. Timebomb at the Port: How Institutional Failure, Political Squabbling and Greed Set the Stage for Blowing up Beirut

Author:
Reinound Leenders
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The institutional set-up of the Port of Beirut is emblematic of Lebanon’s post-war corruption and sectarian clientelism. Any investigation into the 4 August explosion needs to take into account the port’s dismal institutional record and how the current political class ensured its governance remained opaque and messy. This paper provides critical insights into the port’s set-up over the last 30 years highlighting the failing political system, a greedy political class, and entrenched mismanagement and corruption. It demonstrates how the bickering of key actors over the port’s control and the port’s institutional failures set the stage for the blast, pointing to an urgent need to build an accountable port authority as part of any reform effort.
Topic:
Government, Governance, Accountability, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

13960. Punishing the Regime, Protecting Syrians: The Dilemma of Sanctions on Syria

Author:
Mechym Zaki
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Sanctions have so far failed to change the Syrian regime behaviour, and despite their stated objectives of minimizing harm to the population, indicators show that sanctions are hitting ordinary Syrians the hardest. This paper looks at the mechanisms that Assad has been using to overcome the impact of sanctions on its power structure and provides recommendations on how to make sanctions more effective against the regime while mitigating their negative impact on Syrians.
Topic:
Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Humanitarian Intervention, and Quality of Life
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

13961. Salvaging Lebanon: Expert Opinions on a Way out of the Crisis

Author:
Ismael Sheikh Hassan
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Lebanon is facing an unprecedented crisis with financial and economic collapse, lack of political trust, institutional deadlock, health crisis, and environmental degradation, to name a few. To face these challenges, the government should undertake a reform plan that addresses key priority areas to restore trust and salvage the country. We’ve asked experts to give their views about what they see as essential reforms in each area.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

13962. Towards a Zero-COVID Lebanon: A Call for Action

Author:
Joelle M. Abi-Rached, Nahla Issa, Jade Khalife, and Pascale Salameh
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
In its first report, the Independent Lebanese Committee for the Elimination of COVID-19, a group of concerned citizens with various health-related expertise, addresses weaknesses in current government policy and highlights several directions and actions for a more coherent and sustainable national strategy.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

13963. Saving the Suffering Lebanese Healthcare Sector: Immediate Relief while Planning Reforms

Author:
Hussain Isma'eel, Nadim El Jamal, Nuhad Yazbik Dumit, and Elie Al-Chaer
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Lebanon’s economic downfall had a crippling effect on all healthcare sectors, and COVID-19 has further aggravated the crisis. To save an already ailing health sector, this paper written by medical professionals calls for urgent measures to tackle the immediate crisis. Its focuses on maintaining access to healthcare for all, enhancing primary and urgent care centres, controlling readmission, and introducing telemedicine. It highlights needed measures to reduce the financial strain on hospitals and puts forward recommendations to support healthcare providers as well as the pharmaceutical and medical supplies industry.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Reform, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

13964. The Deteriorated Educational Reality in Lebanon: Towards “Another” Critical Approach

Author:
Suzanne Abdul-Reda Abourjeili and Seham Harb
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Education in Lebanon was hit hard by the financial and economic crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. The sector’s structural weaknesses were brought to the surface by the shift to online and distance teaching. Teachers, parents, and students alike were left on their own to struggle through the school year. This has particularly affected the poorest segments of society, as well as parents and teachers with fewer technical skills to educate children. This paper analyzes the challenges that the educational sector has faced over the last year and presents immediate measures and some future strategic choices as a way forward.
Topic:
Education, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

13965. One Year into Lebanon's “17 October Uprising”: Is There a Reason to Celebrate?

Author:
Jamil Mouawad and Paul Achcar
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
A year has passed since the Lebanese “17 October Uprising”. Just as with other Arab uprisings, the first anniversary raises many questions about successes and failures, the nature of the regime and the reasons behind its durability, the organizational requirements and mechanisms of a political transition, and about the despair or the hope that have been created. In this conversation, Paul Achcar and Jamil Mouawad address these different topics through a political analysis of the movement, its players, and the system and its components. The discussion is not limited to analysis, but also offers some ideas on how to move ahead. This will perhaps help in the transition from a state of contestation to consolidating an opposition that becomes a constant political player in the Lebanese scene.
Topic:
Social Movement, Reform, Protests, and Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

13966. Identity Belonging and Constitutional Reform in Algeria: Reconciliating Ideologies for a Peaceful Transition

Author:
Yacine Adberahmane
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
On 1 November 2020, Algerians will vote in a referendum on a new constitution proposed by current President Tabboune. Algeria’s successive constitutions have historically overlooked the country’s diversity. This paper argues that this latest constitutional process was a missed opportunity to encourage peaceful and meaningful exchanges between the country’s different groups, ultimately worsening tensions between both secularists and Islamists and between Arabists and Berberists. It calls on civil society actors to challenge the grip of the central authorities over the identity debate and to initiate a much-needed societal dialogue.
Topic:
Reform, Constitution, Peace, and Identity
Political Geography:
Africa and Algeria

13967. The Political Economy of Syria: Deepening Pre-War Orientations

Author:
Joseph Daher
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Since 2011, the Syrian authorities have continued to develop economic policies with the aim of consolidating their power and their various patronage networks, all while allowing new forms of capital accumulation. This process had already started in the early 2000s with the liberalization and privatization of the Syrian economy. Tradesmen and new businessmen affiliated with the regime have since then considerably increased and deepened their domination over the Syrian economy, especially in recent years. The policies of the Syrian government after 2011 continued in the same vein.
Topic:
Privatization, Authoritarianism, Trade Liberalization, and Centralization
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

13968. Nizar Saghieh – No society disappears through bankruptcy: Its vitality alone can ensure accountability

Author:
Nizar Saghieh and Jamil Mouawad
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
This interview with lawyer and Executive Director of “The Legal Agenda” Nizar Saghieh addresses the most important dimensions of accountability following the economic and financial crisis that Lebanon is suffering. It expands the notions of justice, lack of trust in the judiciary, and widespread corruption while attempting to create hope by emphasizing the vitality of a civil society brought once more to the fore by the “17 October Uprising.” Rather than a mere uprising against power, this is now known as the revolution that revived and rebuilt society.
Topic:
Civil Society, Financial Crisis, Social Movement, Protests, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

13969. The Gulf States and Israel after the Abraham Accords

Author:
Fatiha Dazi-Heni
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Following Israel’s signing of the Abraham Accords with the UAE and Bahrain, many questions arise as to the impact that the Accords will have on the different GCC countries. This paper seeks to outline the historical context surrounding the accords and provide an analysis of the way the different GCC countries have so far approached this new “normalization” of relations with Israel.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

13970. A Syrian Perspective on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon: What Lessons to Be Learnt?

Author:
Mansour Omari
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Along with the Lebanese, many Syrians were also closely watching the verdict of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. This is due in part to suspicions that the Syrian regime may have been involved in Hariri’s assassination but also because of the growing interest of many Syrians in international options for justice for the grave violations committed in Syria since 2011. This paper examines the lessons that Syrians can learn from the STL’s experience in their goal to hold those responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity accountable.
Topic:
Genocide, Law, Judiciary, Humanitarian Crisis, and Tribunal
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

13971. Solutions for the “Vanishing Drug” Conundrum in Lebanon: A Change in the Subsidy System Coupled with a Digital Prescribing Platform

Author:
Nadim El Jamal, Ulfat Usta, Mona Nasrallah, Elie Al-Chaer, Ghassan Hamadeh, and Hussain Isma'eel
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The shortage of foreign currency caused by the multiple crises in Lebanon threatens the availability of pharmaceutical products, with patients experiencing shortages of many drugs despite an importation subsidy system for pharmaceuticals financed by the Central Bank’s foreign reserves. This paper describes Lebanon’s pharmaceutical supply chain and the Central Bank’s subsidy system and proposes recommendations to ensure the continuous availability of medication on pharmacy shelves.
Topic:
Health, Drugs, Medicine, and Pharmaceuticals
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

13972. Building on Quicksand: Pursuing Transitional Justice in Times of Great Upheaval

Author:
Nadim Houry
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Anyone who cares about transitional justice in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) faces a daunting task. How to address the past when the present is in great upheaval? How to tackle yesterday’s wars and violations when new ones—often worse—are occurring today? Practitioners have long recognized that transitional justice is a slow and nonlinear process that requires patience and long-term planning. Setbacks are expected along the way but, in the end, there is the promise or assumption that “if you keep at it, you will eventually get results.” But is this assumption still valid in the MENA region? Are existing transitional justice efforts succeeding in laying the groundwork for a better future, or are they being washed away by new rounds of violence and repression? The issue is both conceptual and pragmatic. On one level, there is the question of whether a society can start addressing the traumas of the past while simultaneously dealing with new traumas, often caused by new actors. On another level, there is the question of what sort of transitional justice processes and institutions can deal with the past, while also being able to adapt to an ever-shifting present. The challenges are immense and there are no easy answers. Here, I highlight the need for further research on transitional justice processes in the MENA region, with a focus on recent years of upheaval. Two fundamental questions emerge: (i) how to reconcile past and current claims; and (ii) how to accommodate ever-changing sources of legitimacy, given the increasing hollowness of state structures in the region.
Topic:
International Law, Transitional Justice, State Building, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa and Middle East

13973. Tunisia: COVID-19 Increases Vulnerability of Rural Women

Author:
Alessandra Bajec
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Tunisian women in rural areas have played a vital role in maintaining food security during the coronavirus pandemic but continue to suffer exploitation and exclusion. While their working conditions are already known for being dire, the public health crisis has compounded their economic and social insecurity. This paper discusses the systemic exploitative treatment of female agricultural workers, the state’s inability so far to protect them, and how local NGOs are helping to improve their lives.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Women, Rural, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

13974. Mobilizing against Anti-black Racism in MENA: A Reader

Author:
Arab Reform Initiative
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, USA, in May 2020 prompted a global surge of demonstrations in solidarity with the “Black Lives Matter” movement and has ushered in one of the most significant and wide-reaching anti-racism movements in recent history. While much of the world is slowly coming to terms with the painful racial histories that fuel present-day discrimination and tensions, the issue of racism in MENA and the region’s role in the slave trade have long been left either unacknowledged or explicitly denied. This denial reinforces entrenched systems of oppression, marginalization, and social exclusion with wider implications on the lives of MENA communities. Societies from Rabat to Sana’a are not as inclusive as they claim to be. Deeply ingrained racial prejudices continue to be a source of suffering and marginalization for diverse minorities, including black communities. Despite the recent growth of interest in anti-racism in MENA, scholarly and literary work on the subject remains sparse, and history books have either glossed over the plight of black people in the Arab region or ignored the part they play in the region’s social dynamics. As part of an effort to promote more regional discussions on the issue and our commitment to fight discrimination in the region, the Arab Reform Initiative is putting together a series of papers (as part of our Bawadar series) on anti-Black racism in MENA in an attempt to raise awareness about anti-black racism in Arab countries and highlight the mobilization that is taking place by anti-racism activists in the region. As a part of this effort, we are also compiling this reader list to draw attention to key academic and artistic works (in English, French and Arabic), but also to bring and keep the issues of anti-black racism at the forefront of public debates and actions. This list – although not exhaustive – presents works chronicling the history of Black communities in MENA, Afro-Arab experiences, and anti-Blackness in the region. We aim to regularly update it to highlight new authors and works. If you think there is a book or paper that needs to be added to this reader, please email us at the address provided above with a link to the paper or book and a few words as to why you think it should be added.
Topic:
Solidarity, Discrimination, Black Lives Matter (BLM), and Racism
Political Geography:
Africa and Middle East

13975. The Pavements Don't Speak: Silencing Street Theatre in Egypt

Author:
Yasmin Helal
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Although street theatre succeeded in establishing itself as an artistic genre in Egypt in the 2000s, the rising restrictions on freedom of expression and assembly have forced street performers to silence in recent years. Through a series of interviews with artists, this paper addresses the factors that enabled the rise of street theatre, the process of politicization of some of its pioneers, as well as the causes that led to its fall.
Topic:
Arts, Culture, Freedom of Expression, and Theater
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

13976. Sudan: Have the Juba and Addis Ababa Agreements Untangled the Dichotomy between Religion and the State?

Author:
Abdelkhalig Shaib
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The place of religion in Sudan’s state has divided the country since its independence. In September, the transitional government agreed to separate religion and state, in an attempt to end the decades-long contention. Against the backdrop of past constitutional failures to adequately recognize and address Sudan’s diversity, this paper examines the implications of the recent Juba and Addis Ababa agreements in the country’s efforts to build a civil democratic state and the challenges ahead.
Topic:
Religion, Democracy, State, State Building, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

13977. State of Urban Poor Rental Housing in India and Emerging Policy trends

Author:
Anindita Mukherjee, Shubhagato Dasgupta, and Aparna Das
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
“Housing for All”, an often-stated vision for housing policies in India, has come to mean ownership houses for all residents. This singular focus has been part of programs from the early 1970s and has failed to recognize the range of housing tenures that may enable a viable, sustainable market. This paper reviews the evolution of housing policies since independence and shows that the emphasis on rental housing has not been a central part of housing programs to date. It then broadly characterizes the rental housing market in India, based on national statistics, to show how rental housing for the urban poor, is half of the rental housing market and is the least understood. Thereafter based on primary survey findings, it identifies the main issues that may inform a comprehensive rental housing program was to be developed in India.
Topic:
Poverty, Inequality, Urban, and Housing
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13978. Can the Revenue Department Remain Urban Agnostic in India?

Author:
Aparna Das, Anindita Mukherjee, and Baisakhi Sarkar Dhar
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The spatial morphology of Indian cities mirrors a disconnect between the urban statutory spatial plans and Revenue records. The Revenue Department instituted during the colonial times had an overarching mandate to collect land taxes and, till today, is referred to as the "custodian of the land." This was a key institution that prepared robust cadastre maps to support the revenue collection. Post-independence, these spatial records are not updated. The institutional disconnect between the Revenue and Registration departments and Urban Land Administration Institutions in the urban and peri-urban areas coupled with poor land records affect the overall confidence in the land administration system. This further limit the nurturing of a robust land market. Taking two land titling programmes: JAGA mission, Odisha, and LIFE mission, Kerala, this paper argues that to achieve the full potential of such land titling programmes, the role of the Revenue and Registration Departments need to be reimagined.
Topic:
Governance, Urban, Resilience, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13979. Study of State Finances 2020-21 (Provisional)

Author:
Avani Kapur, Sharad Pandey, U Ranjan, and Vastav Irava
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The ‘Study of State Finances 2020-21’ Working Paper delves into the revenue and expenditure performance of 17 States. As the COVID-19 pandemic tightens its grip, this timely analysis offers a unique window into the fiscal space available with States prior to the lockdown. This information is critical at a time when they are expected to craft adequate social protection responses and restart their economies.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Finance, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13980. Comments on the Draft Electricity (Amendment) Bill, 2020

Author:
Ashwini K. Swain, Parth Bhatia, Ira Sharma, Prasanna Sarada Das, and Navroz K. Dubash
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The draft Electricity (Amendment) Bill, 2020, released on April 17, 2020, is an improvement from its predecessors. It has dropped some significant proposals that were resisted and has added new provisions. Are these reform proposals adequate and appropriate to address India’s long-standing electricity challenges? Are these prescriptions based on a proper diagnosis of current trends and future challenges? How will these reforms proposals affect India’s ongoing transition to 21st century electricity? While we appreciate the endeavours and intent, in our comments we focus on some serious concerns the draft raises, vital gaps and issues that need serious consideration.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Governance, Legislation, Electricity, Public Service, and Utilities
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13981. Comments on the Draft EIA Notification 2020

Author:
Shibani Ghosh
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change has proposed a new notification to supersede the Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) Notification 2006 that is currently in force. The Ministry has sought comments from the public on this draft EIA Notification 2020. Shibani Ghosh, Fellow, CPR, in her comments to the Ministry has highlighted that there is a crying need to overhaul the EIA Notification 2006 and the regulatory framework built around it – not only to address its various inherent weaknesses that have been identified over the years, but also to put in place systems and processes that respond to the steadily degrading environmental quality in the country. However, the draft EIA Notification 2020 fails to do so. According to Ghosh, in its current form, the draft Notification is legally untenable as it does not conform to its parent Act – the Environment (Protection) Act 1986, and is in the teeth of various judgments of the Supreme Court, High Courts and the National Green Tribunal. It dilutes the already weak processes of environmental impact assessment, expert scrutiny and public consultation, and wrongly condones violations and illegalities. The comments are divided into two sections. Section I discusses four specific reasons why the draft notification is legally untenable and Section II highlights five major concerns that arise from the proposed regulatory design.
Topic:
Environment, Governance, and Judiciary
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13982. Hunger, COVID-19 and The Indian Administrative State

Author:
Arkaja Singh
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
COVID-19 produced an acute and widespread crisis of hunger across India, which was felt most acutely by migrant workers and those who were outside the reach of India’s highly organised but rigid Public Distribution System (PDS). The hunger was incidental to the actual disease itself, but severe enough to be considered a crisis of governance on its own as it brought the Indian state face-t0-face with one of its oldest and most enduring challenges: how to ensure that essential supplies of food reach those in need of it? Could the Indian government simply have ‘universalised’ the PDS, and made it accessible to all? It was pointed out that the Indian state had adequate buffer stocks of food grain to make this feasible. However, for reasons that were never articulated, this option was never seriously considered by the government of India. Instead, governments tried to extend the reach of the PDS delivery mechanism, and to devise ways to deliver relief outside of the PDS framework. These strategies were however quite challenging for the risk-averse, (nominally) rule-bound Indian state that is disinclined to allow for discretion in spending of government funds, making purchases and allocation of largesse. Typically, the Indian state is all the more reluctant to delegate power to exercise discretion to lower levels of government. For this reason, the Indian state governments (who were at the frontline of this response) seemed to need to devise a framework of rules for the identification of beneficiaries, even in the middle of a humanitarian crisis. As a related problem, the states also did not necessarily have the organisational wherewithal to take up rapid, decentralised and locally grounded interventions. The organisational wherewithal, so to speak, could come in various forms. Some examples of this, which we saw at play, were decentralised government, the capacity to make non-state collaborations and institutionalised systems for the ‘continuous updating’ of beneficiary lists. More fundamentally, however, what is needed is the capacity for high levels of government to be able to formulate responsive policy and to be able to trust in the ability of their subordinate ranks to carry out new interventions, often in case-specific and individualised ways. Arkaja Singh’s working paper explores these issues in the context of state response to the COVID hunger crisis in the states of Delhi, Kerala, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana,
Topic:
Governance, Food Security, Hunger, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13983. Evaluating Recent Proposals to Reform the Power Sector in India

Author:
Deepak Sanan and Sanjay Mitra
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Reforms designed to address core issues and their sequencing and timing would be critical to ensure the eventual success of the latest initiatives in the power sector. Lessons from the experience of earlier sectoral reform programmes and recommendations regarding the general architecture of central interventions, would need to be taken on board. Through a simple scenario building exercise, this paper concludes that the parlous financial position of the distribution utilities after lockdown requires that “reforms” follow “recovery”. The concurrent roll out of stringent reform measures on several fronts during a period of severe financial stress could seriously impair the prospects of a viable power sector in the near future. This, in turn, will not only hamper our planned promotion of renewables-based electricity but act as a brake on the entire process of economic recovery.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13984. PROPERTY AND SOVEREIGNTY: Creating, Destroying, and Resurrecting Property Rights in British India (1600-1800)

Author:
Namita Wahi
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This paper, the first in a series of three papers, constitutes the first systematic legal attempt since the late nineteenth century to describe the changing configuration of property rights of zamindars (landlords) and ryots or raiyats (peasants) relative to the English East India Company in colonial India over a period of two hundred years from 1600 to 1800. This period begins with the Company’s first arrival in India to the court of the Mughal Emperor Jehangir in 1600 as merely a trading company. It ends with the introduction of the Permanent Settlement in Bengal by Lord Cornwallis, the Governor General of Bengal in 1793, pursuant to the Company’s exercise of sovereign authority over the provinces of Bengal, Bihar, and Orissa. As described in the paper, during this period of great political upheaval, scandal, and intrigue, as the East India Company gradually transitioned from a monopoly trading company to a conquering and then an administering power, Company officials, including the Governor General, and later the Supreme Council of Bengal, created, destroyed, and resurrected property rights of landlords and tenant cultivators. Following a series of experiments with land revenue administration and the lives of zamindars and raiyats, with the sole objective of maximising revenue for the East India Company, Lord Cornwallis introduced the Permanent Settlement of Land Revenue in 1793, which completely destroyed the rights of peasant cultivators in favour of zamindars, and wreaked great injustice and misery upon the people of Bengal. It would take nearly seventy years for British government to begin to reverse this injustice through tenancy protection legislation enacted in 1859, and this reversal in law would only be completed following land reforms introduced by provincial governments post India’s independence in 1947. These later developments will be the subject of the next two papers in this series.
Topic:
Sovereignty, History, Governance, and Property
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, South Asia, and India

13985. India as the Engine of Recovery for South Asia: a Multi-Sectoral Plan for India’s Covid-19 Diplomacy in the Region

Author:
Shyam Saran, Gautam Mukhopadhaya, Nimmi Kurian, and Sandeep Bhardwaj
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic presents an unparalleled challenge to the peace and prosperity of South Asia, home to one-fourth of the world population. Aside from the immediate health crisis, the pandemic also threatens to undo decades of economic development in the region and destabilize it socially and politically. It is imperative that India take on the leadership role in the region during this time of crisis. As the largest nation in South Asia, it needs to assume the responsibility of assisting its neighbourhood in combating the pandemic and getting on the path of a sustained recovery. This report, from the International Relations team at the Centre for Policy Research, offers a multi-sectoral action plan for India’s Covid-19 diplomacy in the region, covering critical areas of health, food security, ecology, trade and finance. Focusing on the immediate problems as well as long-term challenges, the report envisions a prosperous South Asia, with India as its engine of recovery.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13986. Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for Slum Upgradation and Delisting in Odisha

Author:
Scaling City Institutions for India (SCI-FI)
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
In continuation to the Government of Odisha’s landmark initiative of the Odisha Liveable Habitat Mission (OLHM), also known as the JAGA Mission, launched in 2018, and the successful implementation of the Odisha Land Rights to Slum Dwellers Act 2017, basic infrastructure upgradation and delisting of slums emerge as the next critical steps towards transforming these informal settlements into liveable habitats, integrated with the urban area. Towards this end the Scaling City Institutions for India (SCI-FI) initiative at the Centre for Policy Research (CPR) as knowledge partner supported Housing and Urban Development Department, GoO to prepare a 'Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for Participatory Slum Upgradation and Delisting’. The SOP intends to benefit the key stakeholders by laying down the procedure and benchmarks for undertaking participatory integrated slum level infrastructure upgradation and establishing procedure and documentation for delisting of the slum, to integrate it to the rest of the urban area. This SOP will act as an enabler for ULBs partnering with the Slum Dwellers’ Associations to ensure the availability of adequate basic services to mainstream the slums into the city fabric. This SOP lays down the integral steps to realise community-level benefits building on land rights distribution towards achieving the broader vision of a Liveable Habitat for all.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Urban, Land Rights, and Slums
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13987. Improving Housing for Urban Poor: Learnings from BLC Implementation in Kerala

Author:
Aparna Das, Anindita Mukherjee, Baisakhi Sarkar Dhar, Sudeshna Chatterjee, Arushi Gupta, and Aastha Jain
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The Government of Kerala dovetailed its state housing programme with the national scheme of Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana in 2015 to realise the vision for ‘Housing for All’. The State Poverty Eradication Mission of the Government of Kerala, or Kudumbashree, is the state-level nodal agency for implementing the scheme in Kerala. The PMAY (U) is converged with the LIFE Mission (Livelihood, Inclusion and Financial Empowerment), the comprehensive housing scheme of the Kerala government, and is implemented as PMAY (U)-LIFE. In Kerala, the PMAY’s Beneficiary-led Individual House Construction or Enhancement (BLC) vertical emerged as the most preferred vertical, owing to an increased subsidy outlay by the Government of Kerala. Further, recognising the lack of state-owned land as a significant hindrance to the uptake of the BLC scheme, the state government converged the implementation of the BLC scheme with the third phase of the LIFE Mission in 2017. This convergence provided an additional subsidy to the landless households to purchase private land, thereby enabling their inclusion under the ambit of the BLC scheme in the state. This report is based on a primary assessment of the state of habitat improvement in Kerala, under the ambit of PMAY (U)-LIFE, through a quantitative household survey in three cities of Kerala – Kochi, Trivandrum and Mukkam. It finds that the State’s interventions towards the Housing for All agenda have underscored the importance attributed to the landless and the homeless in the state, rather than slum dwellers exclusively. The State’s interventions have also successfully demonstrated an approach towards enabling livelihoods through housing and imbibing financial empowerment among women. While the Kerala model has exhibited various successful interventions to achieve a higher uptake of the BLC under PMAY, Kerala now needs to focus on adopting a city-wide, inclusive spatial planning approach. This report concludes by advocating for the provision of allied basic civic infrastructure across the new and existing housing in the state and for a spatial integration of the beneficiaries, to ensure habitat improvement.
Topic:
Poverty, Governance, Urban, and Housing
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13988. Improving Housing for Urban Poor: Learnings from BLC Implementation in Odisha

Author:
Aparna Das, Anindita Mukherjee, Baisakhi Sarkar Dhar, Sudeshna Chatterjee, Arushi Gupta, and Aastha Jain
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
In response to the national housing scheme, the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY), the Government of Odisha designed the Odisha Urban Housing Mission – Awaas in 2015 to realise the goal of housing for all in the state. With an additional outlay as subsidy from the state government and the Centre to the economically weaker sections for building houses on their own land, the Beneficiary-led ‘Individual House’ Construction or Enhancement (BLC) vertical emerged as the most preferred. During the initial days of implementation, the lack of documentary evidence for the land occupied by slum dwellers continued to exclude the majority from the purview of the BLC subsidy. To address this impediment and to enable a wider traction of the scheme, the State introduced the Odisha Land Rights to Slum Dwellers Act, 2017, entitling the urban poor to rights on the land parcels they had been residing on, depending on the tenability. After the completion of the pilot phase of the Act, the Hon’ble Chief Minister of Odisha launched the JAGA Mission, to expand the land rights programme and to transform the existing slums into liveable habitats, with the provision of all essential civic urban infrastructure. Against this background, this report aims to understand (a) the impact of the distribution of Land Rights Certificates (LRCs) among the urban poor on their ability to leverage the housing subsidy under BLC and (b) the existing conditions and challenges in the construction of houses through BLC under PMAY in Odisha. For this purpose, a stratified sample survey of 250 households was carried out in three cities of Odisha – Dhenkanal, Gopalpur and Berhampur – in addition to Key Informant Interviews (KIIs). The study finds that the dissemination of land rights to the urban poor, after the commencement of the JAGA Mission, enhanced the potential beneficiary base in the state for leveraging available BLC housing subsidies. However, the ensuing ‘house only’ approach in the State and the limited focus on improving access to basic services require urgent redressal. While the steps adopted by the Government of Odisha are vital to address the issues of urban planning and housing for slum dwellers, there is now a looming need to adopt a multi-pronged approach towards ensuring an overall habitat improvement and an integration of slums into the city fabric.
Topic:
Poverty, Governance, Urban, and Housing
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13989. State Education Finances: A Deep-Dive into School Education Finances in Eight States

Author:
Mridusmita Bordoloi, Sharad Pandey, and Ruchi Junnarkar
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This study is an attempt to provide an in-depth understanding of school education financing in India through an analysis of expenditures incurred across eight states from FY 2014-15 to FY 2017-18.
Topic:
Education, Governance, Finance, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13990. Social Security for Informal Workers in India

Author:
Mridusmita Bordoloi, Mohammad Hamza Farooqui, and Sharad Pandey
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The brief explores India’s labour market policies on provisioning of social security to informal workers in the unorganised sector.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Public Policy, and Social Security
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13991. Mapping State Interventions Towards Women and Child Protection in Maharashtra

Author:
Accountability Initiative
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This study examined interventions addressing violence against women (VAW) and violence against children (VAC) in Maharashtra. The study, conducted between August 2018 and October 2019, analyses budgetary allocations, expenditures, and utilisation for measures addressing VAW and VAC over 5 years FY 2014-15 to FY 2018-19. This study was commissioned by UNICEF Maharashtra as a part of a larger project between UNICEF, UN Women and Government of Maharashtra on tracking outlays to outcomes for women and children.
Topic:
Governance, Children, Women, Violence, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13992. Unblocking Barriers to Inclusive WASH: Learnings from Slums in Bhubaneswar

Author:
Tripti Singh and Anju Dwivedi
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Urban sanitation in the Indian policy space received focused attention only after the mid2000s with the introduction of a slew of programmes such as Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), followed by National Urban Sanitation Policy (NUSP), Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM), Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT) and the National Policy on Faecal Sludge and Septage Management (FSSM). However, there remains limited literature based on empirical research on urban sanitation in India from the perspective of inclusion. While India made considerable physical progress in sanitation infrastructure creation in the last decade, it continues to grapple with ground realities that are causing widespread social inequalities in accessing water and sanitation. These inequalities differently affect marginalised groups – women, adolescent girls, transgender and persons with disabilities – in accessing water and sanitation, and act as barriers to opportunities for them. For the country to fulfil the commitment to the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) based on the principle of ‘Leave no one behind’, it is imperative for it to place marginalised groups at the centre of programme and policy research. Often, those who are left behind face multiple marginalisations, as they live in poverty, under precarious conditions, with limited access to safe water and sanitation services. Against this backdrop, this study was conducted in 2018-19 across ten slums in Bhubaneshwar (Odisha) to explore to what extent marginalised groups access benefits of sanitation schemes and programmes. The government of Odisha has introduced a range of water and sanitation policies and strategies. These include the Odisha State Water Policy 2007, Odisha Urban Sanitation Strategies 2011 which was revised in 2017, Odisha Urban Sanitation Policy 2017, and Odisha State Urban Water Supply Policy 2013 that deal with provisioning of water and sanitation facilities for the urban poor. While this provides a conducive policy/ legal environment, it is critical to identify both the enabling mechanisms for inclusive sanitation and the barriers to inclusion that exist for marginalised groups in slums in the state. In this context, the study examined tangible and intangible effects of SBM-Urban at both household and community levels. At the household level, the study attempted to understand whether the programmes had a transformative impact on the gendered division of labour within the domestic sphere, particularly concerning water and sanitation roles and responsibilities. At the community level – in this case the slum level – the study examined whether the government programmes strengthened the participation of the most marginalised groups in decision-making processes of planning and implementation. The research proposes recommendations to support the government, Civil Society Organisations (CSOs), researchers and academics in developing inclusive sanitation policies and programmes as well as promoting inclusive approaches on urban sanitation. Some of the key recommendations include developing a framework and guideline for inclusive sanitation, initiating inclusive WASH budgeting, and upgrading the design of existing community toilets (CTs) and public toilets (PTs) to cater to specific needs of transgender and persons with disability.
Topic:
Governance, Sanitation, Slums, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13993. A Comprehensive Overview: Defining and Measuring Informality in India’s Labour Market

Author:
Mridusmita Bordoloi, Sharad Pandey, and Mohammad Hamza Farooqui
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The brief unbundles the global standard definition of informality with respect to the labour market, a concept often considered inexplicit and broad-based. It presents the parameters used to measure informality in the Indian context, and presents key characteristics of the informal workforce.
Topic:
Employment, Work Culture, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13994. A Hidden Cost: The Pandemic’s Impact on Nutrition

Author:
Avani Kapur and Ritwik Shukla
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This brief’s focus is solely on core nutrition specific interventions for pregnant women, lactating mothers, and children under six years of age. These address the immediate determinants of fetal and child nutrition and development. Nutrition-sensitive interventions are discussed where relevant.
Topic:
Development, Children, Women, Food Security, and Pandemic
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13995. Powering Through the Pandemic

Author:
Ashwini K. Swain
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic are consequential for India’s long-term electricity goals. While exacerbating the existing weaknesses in the sector, the pandemic could also affect the trend toward an electricity transition. This report is an attempt to understand the impact of the pandemic on India’s electricity, government responses, and thus, suggest a structural approach to building a resilient electricity future. We find that the Covid-19 caused disruptions in the electricity sector are pervasive and have alarming secondary effects and long-term consequences. While the Central and state governments have been swift to recognise the disruptions, the band-aid approach, focused on fixing existing patterns in the sector, appears inadequate to challenges. Ironically, the long-term electricity reform agenda – proposed in major legislative and policy amendment proposals – shaped in times of a pandemic has failed to internalise the challenges thrown-up and insights gained from the Covid-19 experience. The combination of Covid-19 disruptions, technological driven cost reductions in renewable energy, and the longstanding financial and governance problems of the sector combine to create a ‘critical juncture’ for the sector- a moment to envision a new and alternative configuration of technology, institutions and politics that could transform Indian electricity. While this a long-term and complex conversation, the report suggests illustrative pathways toward these goals.
Topic:
Government, Electricity, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13996. Financing Nutrition in India: Cost Implications of the Nutrition Policy Landscape 2019-20

Author:
Avani Kapur, Ritwik Shukla, Manan Thakkar, and Purnima Menon
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
India should have spent at least ₹38,571 crore in 2019-20, across Union government ministries and State government departments to fully finance a set of core direct nutrition interventions (DNIs), at scale. In this study, you will find information on nutrition costing. It carries forward critical studies that costed for nutrition interventions.
Topic:
Government, Food, and Finance
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13997. Pursuing a Clean Air Agenda in India During the COVID Crisis

Author:
Santosh Harish and Shibani Ghosh
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Air quality was gradually gaining political salience in India in the last few years, but COVID-19 and the deepening economic recession may now change the speed, and possibly the direction, of progress. The aim of this report is to begin the process, even amidst uncertainties, of understanding the effects of the COVID crisis on the air quality discourse in the country, and on the mitigation efforts already underway. We begin with a brief overview of the air quality improvements observed during the lockdown, and then identify some likely implications of the pandemic on how we frame the air quality problem. In view of state actions and public response during the COVID crisis, how should we, if at all, adapt our current framing of air pollution as a public health crisis? In the next section, we discuss broad financial, regulatory and institutional implications: in particular, the need to engage with the available funding channels to initiate and sustain measures to improve air quality amid significant fiscal constraints. There is a worrying erosion of environmental safeguards, which may – in part – be justified as a prerequisite to restarting the economy, and facilitating “ease of doing business”. Given that air quality management in India needs a multi-pronged approach across disparate sources, we then reflect on how the disruptions affect each of the major sources, and the resultant opportunities and challenges.
Topic:
Environment, Governance, Pollution, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13998. Reuse and Recycling of Faecal Sludge-derived Biosolids in Agriculture

Author:
Neha Agarwal, Ambarish Karunanithi, and Anju Dwivedi
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The rapid proliferation of toilets under the Swachh Bharat Mission has necessitated the safe collection, conveyance, and treatment of faecal sludge and septage. Accordingly, the National Policy on Faecal Sludge and Septage Management (FSSM), 2017, sets the imperative for streamlining the citywide sanitation service chain. In doing so, it promotes closing of the resources loop through recycling and reuse of treated wastewater and faecal sludge-derived biosolids. The 2017 amendment to the Environment (Protection) Rules, 1986, lays down clear standards and guidance for recycling of treated wastewater. However, a regulatory lacuna concerning biosolids -whose use as a fertilizer in agriculture has been shown to enhance crop yields and reduce the burden of synthetic fertilizers - deters local action in accessing opportunities for their recycling formally. This guidance note, reviewing international biosolids regulations, is intended as an aid for policymakers and regulators at the national and state level in developing a standard for biosolids utilization in agriculture which is easy to interpret and implement, promotes their scientific and safe reuse, and ensures the protection of the health of the users, the local communities, the consumers, and the environment at large.
Topic:
Agriculture, Environment, Health, Sanitation, and Recycling
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13999. Invisible Sanitation Workers @ Covid 19 Lockdown: Voices From 10 Cities

Author:
Shubhagato Dasgupta, Tripti Singh, and Anju Dwivedi
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Despite precarious working conditions, sanitation workers provide an essential service at the cost of their safety, health, and dignity. With the outbreak of COVID-19, their position is further jeopardised. The situation is likely to become more grave if these invisible frontline workers continue to interact with communities either without or with inadequate protective gear and safety equipment. To combat the ongoing public health crisis, while most strategies focus on scientific and technical solutions crucial to contain the epidemic, simultaneously there is a need to strengthen preparedness and response measures to safeguard these invisible frontline workers. Against this background, a rapid research study was launched to delve deeper into issues sanitation workers face during COVID-19 lockdown across ten cities. Findings and learnings from the study highlight the lived reality of sanitation workers during COVID-19. These vibrant voices showcase variations among sanitation workers across the country based on the nature of their contract, typology of work, the procedure of work, access to protective gear and safety equipment, provision of training, and awareness of institutional response.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Sanitation, Cities, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

14000. A Crisis of Hunger: a ground report on the repercussions of COVID-19 related lockdown on Delhi’s vulnerable populations

Author:
Ashwin Parulkar and Mukta Naik
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The lock-down in response to COVID-19 has created an unprecedented food crisis in Delhi. While monthly-wage earning households may have a few days food supply on hand, daily wage labourers – now without work - have no income and, therefore, no ability to buy food. Even those with means to buy food face local access barriers because vendors and street markets are no longer operational. The Delhi government recently announced relief measures for such vulnerable people. But we find these have serious lacuna that must be identified and addressed to respond to the unfolding crisis of hunger at hand. This report draws on conversations with civil society organisations with deep networks on ground to highlight key issues and possible solutions. We discuss three key Delhi government announcements: the deployment of homeless shelters for provision of food, the use of the construction workers cess for direct benefit transfers, and the increase in PDS allocations. Additionally, we draw attention to measures under the ICDS and on the specific and acute distress among residents of violence affected north-east Delhi. Last, we discuss the plight of migrants trapped inside Delhi who want to return home.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Government, Labor Issues, Hunger, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South Asia and India