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15951. A New Risk to the EU from Coronavirus Viktor Orbán’s Hungary

Author:
András Rácz
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Political leaders could abuse the coronavirus crisis to undermine democracy. Europe’s biggest risk is Hungary. In late March, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán could use his two-thirds majority in parliament to push through a law that would empower him to rule by decrees with no specified time limit. If he succeeds, it will undermine the European Union’s core principles, making the EU even more fragmented and difficult to manage once the pandemic is over.
Topic:
Government, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Coronavirus, and Pandemic
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

15952. Coronavirus in the EU’s Eastern Neighborhood: Why Brussels Needs to Scale Up Its Support

Author:
Cristina Gherasimov
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
While the magnitude of the current pandemic is still unknown, Eastern Europe might be facing a major regional catastrophe. The six countries of the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) have dysfunctional health-care systems and lack resources and protective equipment for their doctors and hospitals. The European Commission’s offer of immediate assistance is good news. However, much more will be needed to help the EU’s eastern partners fight the coronavirus and mitigate the socioeconomic impact of this crisis.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Partnerships, Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and Pandemic
Political Geography:
Europe and Brussels

15953. Time for a Corona Fund: How a Coalition of Willing Member States Can Shore Up the EU Economy

Author:
Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
While the ECB has already taken bold steps, the EU member states need to support its efforts by committing to underwrite together some of the fiscal costs of the COVID-19 Pandemic. The best option would be to launch a Corona Fund with the power to mobilize 1 trillion EUR—support for such a fund need not be unanimous.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Economy, Recovery, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

15954. Deterrence and Defense in Times of COVID-19 Europe’s Political Choices

Author:
Christian Mölling, Torben Schütz, and Sophia Becker
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Europe is headed for a recession that will dwarf the economic downturn after the 2008 financial crisis. The impact on national defense sectors could be devastating. But as crisis and responses are still in the early stage, governments can still take measures to mitigate the effect on defense. To safeguard political and defense priorities, EU and NATO States need to act jointly and decisively.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, Deterrence, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

15955. Issue Paper: Good Practices in Evaluating Tertiary PVE Programs

Author:
Sofia Koller
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The transnational dimension of violent extremism calls for a comprehensive approach to prevention. International exchange of knowledge is crucial to enable an effective response. In addition, while more and more countries have increasingly focused on the prevention of violent extremism (PVE) (as opposed to purely repressive counter terrorism measures), actors need to be able to understand and demonstrate which measures work as well as how and why they do.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe

15956. Towards European Anticipatory Governance for Artifi cial Intelligence

Author:
Georgios Kolliarakis and Isabella Hermann
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
This report presents the findings of the Interdisciplinary Research Group “Responsibility: Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence” of the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities and the Technology and Global Affairs research area of DGAP. In September 2019, they brought leading experts from research and academia together with policy makers and representatives of standardization authorities and technology organizations to set framework conditions for a European anticipatory governance regime for artificial intelligence (AI).
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, European Union, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe

15957. Pushing the EU to a Hamiltonian Moment: Germany’s Court Ruling and the Need to Build a Fiscal Capacity Force a Constitutional Debate

Author:
Daniela Schwarzer and Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The recent ruling of the German Constitutional Court on the ECB was an economic and political bombshell. The deep controversy that resulted – within Germany and on a European scale – illustrates that the ambiguity surrounding the euro area’s legal order and architecture may have reached its limit. The ruling, combined with the plan to build a fiscal capacity to address the economic consequences of the coronavirus crisis, presents the EU with an important opportunity to complete and solidify the euro area.
Topic:
European Union, Constitution, Economy, Fiscal Policy, and Judiciary
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

15958. An International Partnership for Sudan’s Transition: Mobilizing Support, Preventing Instability

Author:
Gerrit Kurtz
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Germany has helped lead efforts to mobilize international support for Sudan’s transition process since President al-Bashir was ousted last year. To be successful, Germany and its partners must deliver on their promises to support the transitional government’s economic reforms with substantial aid. They should keep Sudan’s diverse partners aligned while broadening their outreach. Sudan is thus a test case for how much political capital Germany will spend on its stated objective of conflict prevention.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Government, Partnerships, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Sudan, and Germany

15959. How 'Democratic Security' Can Protect Europe from a Rising China

Author:
Didi Kirsten Tatlow
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The Communist Party of China (CPC) plans for China to achieve effective global dominance by 2049. It is using the major global crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to secure strategic advantage through propaganda and disinformation, assertive, sometimes aggressive diplomacy, pursuing targeted investments, and offering “health cooperation.” The CPC has long targeted European business and political elites to build constituencies of support. Europe must counter by building robust societies based on core democratic values.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, COVID-19, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

15960. Four Scenarios for the Crisis in Belarus

Author:
András Rácz, Cristina Gherasimov, and Milan Nič
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
As protests continue to galvanize Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko is consolidating his grip on power. Volatile domestic dynamics – and Russia’s reactions to them – will shape the discredited regime’s future. This paper outlines four possible scenarios for Belarus up to one year from now. They include options for Russia and the EU, whose strategic objectives differ, but whose short-term interests align: preventing bloodshed, avoiding open geopolitical conflict, and preparing for a post-Lukashenko transition.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, European Union, Geopolitics, Protests, and Transition
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus