9941. Salafi-Jihadism in Africa: A winning strategy
- Author:
- Giovanni Faleg and Katariina Mustasilta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Violent extremism keeps spreading in Africa, showing notable resilience despite years of counter-extremism and prevention efforts by governments and international actors*. In addition to killing thousands, it costs the affected regions an estimated $97 billion in lost informal economic activity each year. Today, armed actors engaging in violent extremism in the continent are mainly affiliated with Islamist militant groups and organisations and particularly Salafi-jihadist ideology. Recent data indicates a dangerous expansion of Salafi-jihadist armed groups — often simply labelled as violent extremist or terrorist organisations — beyond the traditional hotspots in the Sahel, Lake Chad Basin and the Horn of Africa to West Africa’s coastal states and Central and Southern Africa. The proliferation of militants linked to the Islamic State (IS) in particular and the infighting and complex ties among groups affiliated to different jihadist networks are raising growing alarm among observers. The worrying trend is reflected in the increase of acts of violence designated as terrorism. According to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), sub-Saharan Africa was the second region in the world affected by deadly terrorism in 2019, superseding the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) for a second consecutive year. Whereas globally the lethality of terrorism is somewhat decreasing, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing a contrasting trend. Burkina Faso experienced the largest increase in terrorism in the world in 2019 with nearly 600 people killed in terrorist attacks. Terrorism was assessed to have increased significantly also in Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Niger, among others. Seven out of the ten countries most impacted by terrorist violence in 2019 are located in the region. Similar developments continued in 2020. What makes Salafi-jihadist groups appear ‘invincible’? This Conflict Series Brief analyses how Salafi-jihadism spreads across Africa and explores its potential future trajectories. The first section of the Brief analyses the broader picture emerging from recent extremism-affiliated armed violence trends in the region. The second section analyses three aspects making these extremist groups particularly resilient and facilitating their spread in the continent. Based on the findings, the third section demonstrates the dangers of such adaptability, using two foresight scenarios for 2025. Finally, the concluding section outlines the main policy implications: what needs to change to prevent violent extremism from derailing Africa’s Agenda 2063 ?
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Salafism, Conflict, Islamism, and Jihad
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahel