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12281. Can adjustment costs in research derail the transition to green growth ?

Author:
Laura Nowzohour
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
Adjustment costs are a central bottleneck of the real-world economic transition essential for achieving the sizeable reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions set out by policy makers. Could these costs derail the transition process to green growth, and if so, how should policy makers take this into account? I study this issue using the model of directed technical change in Acemoglu, Aghion, Bursztyn, and Hemous (2012), AABH, augmented by a friction on the choice of scientists developing better technologies. My results show that such frictions, even minor, materially affect the outcome. In particular, the risk of reaching an environmental disaster is higher than in the baseline AABH model. Fortunately, policy can address the problem. Specifically, a higher carbon tax ensures a disaster-free transition. In this case, the re-allocation of research activity to the clean sector happens over a longer but more realistic time horizon, namely around 15 instead of 5 years. An important policy implication is that optimal policies do not act over a substantially longer time horizon but must be more aggressive today in order to be effective. In turn, this implies that what may appear as a policy failure in the short-run | a slow transition albeit aggressive policy | actually re ects the efficient policy response to existing frictions in the economy. Furthermore, the risk of getting environmental policy wrong is highly asymmetric and `robust policy' implies erring on the side of stringency. Details
Topic:
Environment, Sustainable Development Goals, Economic Growth, Sustainability, Anthropocene, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12282. Crime, inequality and subsidized housing: evidence from South Africa

Author:
Roxana Elena Manea, Patrizio Piraino, and Martina Viarengo
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
We study the relationship between housing inequality and crime in South Africa. We create a novel panel dataset combining information on crimes at the police station level with census data. We find that housing inequality explains a significant share of the variation in both property and violent crimes, net of spillover effects, time and district fixed effects. An increase of one standard deviation in housing inequality explains between 9 and 13 percent of crime increases. Additionally, we suggest that a prominent post-apartheid housing program for low-income South Africans helped to reduce inequality and violent crimes. Together, these findings suggest the important role that equality in housing conditions can play in the reduction of crime in an emerging economy context.
Topic:
Crime, Development, Inequality, and Housing
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

12283. Financing energy innovation: internal finance and the direction of technical change

Author:
Joëlle Noailly and Roger Smeets
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement and of climate neutrality by 2050 in the European Union will require mobilizing financial investments towards clean energy innovation. This study examines the role of internal finance (cash flows and cash holdings) and financing constraints for innovation in energy technologies. We construct a dataset for 1,300 Europeans combining balance-sheet information and patenting activities in renewable (REN) and fossil-fuel (FF) technologies and estimate the sensitivity of patenting activities to's internal finance. We use count estimation techniques and control for a large set of-specific characteristics and market developments in REN and FF technologies. We find that patenting activities ofs specialized in REN innovation are significantly more sensitive to a shock in cash flows thans specializing in FF innovation. Hence, our results emphasize that innovatives in clean energy may be particularly vulnerable to financing constraints. We discuss the implications of these results for energy transition policies aiming to redirect finance towards clean energy R&D.
Topic:
Environment, Science and Technology, European Union, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, Innovation, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

12284. Food security in the long-run: a macroeconomic approach to land use policy

Author:
Pedro Naso, Ozgun Haznedar, Bruno Lanz, and Timothy M. Swanson
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
It is important to dedicate substantial parts of the global land supply to public good uses in the 21st century, for purposes of climate change management and biodiversity provision. But will it also be possible to meet the food requirements of 12 billion people while doing so? Using a macroeconomic model (MAVA), we demonstrate that it may be possible to provide both for food security and environmental services in the long run. We first show that it may be possible to provide for food security with very substantial constraints on the amount of land used in agriculture with relatively minor welfare losses. We then show that global policies that reallocate labour across sectors of the economy may have the capacity for directing the economy toward reduced reliance on land in agriculture. Focusing on education, research and development, and fertility costs may be the best way to meet these combined goals. Details
Topic:
Development, Food Security, Macroeconomics, and Land
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12285. Heard the news ? Environmental policy and clean investments

Author:
Joëlle Noailly, Laura Nowzohour, and Matthias Van Den Heuvel
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
We build a novel news-based index of US environmental policy and examine how it relates to clean investments. Extracting text from ten leading US newspapers over the last four decades, we use text-mining techniques to develop a granular index measuring the salience of US environmental policy (EnvP) over the 1981-2019 period. We develop further a set of additional measures, namely an index of sentiment on environmental policy, as well as various topic-specific indices. We validate our index by showing that it correctly captures trends and peaks in the evolution of US environmental policy and that it has a meaningful association with clean investments, in line with environmental regulations supporting growing opportunities for clean markets. In firm-level estimations, we find that the salience of environmental policy in newspapers is associated with a greater probability of cleantech startups receiving venture capital (VC) funding and reduced stock returns for high-emissions firms most exposed to environmental regulations. At the aggregate level, we find in VAR models that a shock in our news-based index of renewable energy policy is associated with an increase in the number of clean energy VC deals and in the assets under management of the main benchmark clean energy exchange-traded fund. Overall, our EnvP index provides a lot of substantial information on environmental policy and can help assist the policy and financial community in understanding how these regulations are perceived by investors | providing many avenues for future research.
Topic:
Environment, Investment, Mining, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

12286. Heterogeneous impacts of school fee elimination in Tanzania: gender and colonial infrastructure

Author:
Roxana Elena Manea and Pedro Naso
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
In this study, we investigate the impacts of the 2002 elimination of primary school fees in Mainland Tanzania. We explore how the magnitude of these effects depends on gender and the size of early investments in the educational infrastructure of Tanganyika. We use the 2002 and 2012 census waves as well as historical information on the location of schools in the late 1940s, and conduct a difference-in-differences analysis. We find that exposure to an average of 1.7 years of free primary education has reduced the proportion of people who have never attended primary education by 6.8 percentage points. The benefits of fee removal have been significantly larger for females compared to males, and females from districts where the size of investments in education was relatively larger during colonial rule have been the greatest beneficiaries.
Topic:
Education, Infrastructure, Colonialism, Gender, and Schools
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

12287. Taliban News: Fair and Balanced?

Author:
Janet Steele
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
At the Taliban’s first press conference on 17 August 2021, spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid startled the world by calling for “balanced and fair reporting,” claiming that the Taliban would support free and independent media as long as journalists worked according to Islamic rules and Sharia. In this essay, I argue that Western policymakers should take the Taliban spokesperson’s words very seriously, as his frame of reference is a set of powerful Islamic concepts that are likely to resonate with Muslim listeners throughout the world. It is important both to understand his words within the context of Islam, and to search for common ground in holding the Taliban accountable for what it has pledged.
Topic:
Governance, Taliban, News Analysis, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

12288. More Ethical Political Communication in the 21st Century

Author:
Benjamin Voth
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Ethics as a matter of political communication vexes the human experiment in politics since its inception. A proper and grounded sense of ethics in political communication is a necessary ongoing consideration in all expert analysis of political communication in order to avoid important excesses of politics ranging from injustice to genocide. The key antidote to achieving ethical rather than unethical conduct in political communication is a careful praxis of discursive complexity. As the 21st century intensifies its attachments to vehicles of communication rooted in artificial intelligence, we as expert practitioners must intensify our pedagogy and research toward the encouragement of human dissent. The potential mismanagement of public opinion could through technological savvy unleash nightmares comparable or suprassing the Third Reich in the 1940s.
Topic:
Politics, Science and Technology, Communications, Ethics, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12289. What Do Social Media Activity and Social Networks Mean for Politics

Author:
James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Social media reshapes politics and national narratives in ways that make it more difficult to govern, if by govern we mean collective actions to preserve stability and order through voluntary adhesion to laws and norms, and when necessary, through coercion deemed legitimate by the institutions of the state. Social media’s impact on narrative and legitimacy is what’s most pronounced and, in many cases, what’s most damaging to the ability of governments to govern.
Topic:
Politics, Social Media, Legitimacy, and Social Networks
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12290. Role of Social media in Amplifying Neo-Liberal Cancel Culture

Author:
Greg Simons
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Cancel culture and wokeism are dangerous trends that are increasing in their intensity and the self-destruction of Western civilization is a matter of time as the underlying historical myths and value/normative philosophies that led to its global hegemony is destroyed by a messianic ideology that is engineering an exclusive homogenous worldview in the name of pluralism and inclusivity. In this world of Orwellian doublespeak, the current struggle for ideological hegemony is taking place in the information space for hearts and minds in the cognitive realm. Social media is the very frontline in the future and even very existence of Western civilization, and it has chosen to support those waging the neo-liberal cancel culture in the name of justice, liberation and equality.
Topic:
Culture, Hegemony, Social Media, Neo-Liberalism, and Cancel Culture
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12291. Conspiracy Buffs, Skeptics and the 2016 US Presidential Election

Author:
Ted Goertzel
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
We identified “Conspiracy Buffs” and “Skeptics” based on two conspiracy theory items included in the 2016 American National Election Survey. We then compared these two groups, and the much larger group we called the “Uncertains”, on a large number of closed and open-ended survey items. The Conspiracy Buffs had lower levels of education than the Skeptics, had less facility with language, and were more likely to state that they had not thought much about whether they were liberal or conservative. They expressed strongly angry feelings about Hillary Clinton, often citing the Benghazi incident and her use of a private email server. The Skeptics were just as angry at Donald Trump as the Buffs were at Hillary Clinton, but they did not use arguments drawn from conspiracy theories. They referred to his widely acknowledged personality traits and personal behaviors. These traits were also mentioned by many Buffs, but more in disappointment than in anger.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Voting, and Conspiracy Theory
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

12292. A Rising "Cyber China"

Author:
Jonathan Sullivan, Sarah Jeu, and Weixiang Wang
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
As Xi Jinping prepares to secure an unprecedented third term as party leader, observers will find that the PRC has become increasingly assertive in its regulation of the internet and its infrastructure. The techniques honed in the treatment of China’s domestic cybersphere are increasing in presence in international cyberspace, as domestic propaganda effectively suppresses dissenting voices and nurtures cyber nationalism. The CPC’s promotion of “cyber sovereignty” and “self-reliance” in technological innovation and manufacturing further demonstrate a concerted effort to carve out a “Chinese cyberspace” different from the current free and open model. Understanding both domestic and international aspects of China’s internet is the key to addressing a more proactive and confident “Cyber China.”
Topic:
Infrastructure, Regulation, Internet, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
China and Asia

12293. A Digital Social Contract That Safeguards Democracies and promotes Women's Rights Is Urgently Needed

Author:
Lucina Di Meco
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Globally, women leaders online face relentless abuse, threats, and gendered disinformation campaigns, enabled by the lack of regulation on social media platforms causing women to become discouraged from entering public leadership and allowing anti-democratic regimes to silence critics and undermine women’s political participation. In Turkey, proposed social media reform allowing government regulation based on poorly defined definitions of disinformation coupled with the backsliding of women’s rights movements are providing a breeding ground for gendered disinformation. A small window has opened to show the responsibility of platforms for not acting sooner to address the harms their products cause on women, and democracy. We must take advantage of this moment by highlighting what the evidence demonstrates, shaping the global conversation on online harms against women.
Topic:
Women, Democracy, Gender, and Digital Space
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12294. Not In The Cards: U.S.-China Arms Control In The Era of MultiPolar Competition

Author:
Eliza Gheorghe and Dilan Ezgi Koc
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The distribution of power at the international level and the intensity of the security rivalry can explain the trajectory of arms control between China and the United States. Washington and Beijing were able to work together during the second half of the Cold War and for much of unipolarity because the system was bipolar and the security competition was mild or non-existent. The advent of multipolarity and the ensuing intense security competition put an end to Sino-American cooperation on arms control. The current circumstances are not conducive to a resumption of exchanges.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

12295. When The Stakes Are High: Campaign Messages in Hungary

Author:
Zsofia Bocskay
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
While municipal elections are of less importance than national ones, the study of local election communication shows that there are cases when political actors frame them as first-order elections. In 2019, the opposition managed to challenge the ruling Fidesz-KDNP alliance in Hungary, and gained mayoral offices in strategically important places. In the campaign, PM Viktor Orbán’s party stressed the importance of local elections, utilizing a complex conspiracy theory. They argued that the stakes were high because Hungary’s sovereignty was at risk. In this article, I evaluate the findings of a content analysis conducted on 86 speeches that were performed as part of the ruling party’s election campaign with a special focus on topics and character remarks.
Topic:
Elections, Local, Voting, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

12296. Domestication and Defeminization of Female Leadership

Author:
Abeer Kapoor
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Throughout the article, the author argues that women politicians will always be framed within the domestic context and that they will always be attached to their male family members. Then, if they are to go beyond that, they must remove their feminine identity and discard it in order to compete with men on an equal basis.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Leadership, Feminism, Equality, and Femininity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12297. NATO 2030: Keeping Us Safe In a More Competitive World

Author:
Mircea Geoana
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
In this new age of growing global competition and increasing complex threats, our security environment is more uncertain and contested than ever before. At the NATO Summit in Brussels in June, Allied leaders took bold decisions to adapt our Alliance to a more unpredictable world and ensure that NATO will continue to keep our one billion people safe in this new decade and beyond. Through our ambitious and forward-looking NATO 2030 agenda, our transatlantic Alliance will remain fit to face the challenges of today and future-proof against those of tomorrow. As a highly valued member of NATO, Turkey makes important contributions to our Alliance and its ongoing adaptation.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

12298. Getting NATO Ready For The Rest Of The 21st Century: Is NATO 2030 The Right Roadmap?

Author:
Jamie Shea
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Visiting Brussels in June, President Biden proclaimed that “America is back”. This also means that NATO is back, as Biden reconfirmed the United States’ solemn commitment to the defense of its European allies and Washington’s willingness to once again lead a transatlantic alliance that was much derided during the Trump years. At first sight, this is all good news for NATO; but could it turn out to be a mixed blessing for the Europeans in the longer run? This article analyses whether the NATO 2030 initiative is up to the task, and whether it provides the right answers.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

12299. NATO And Collective Defense in Space: Same Mission, New Domain

Author:
Aurel Sari and Hitoshi Nasu
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The progressive militarization of outer space presents a range of policy and legal challenges for NATO due to its reliance on space assets for operational effectiveness and the increased vulnerabilities of these assets. Indeed, dependence on space-based assets and services in the conduct of military operations has become something of an Achilles heel for NATO as peer and near-peer competitors are honing their counter-space capabilities. Given the vulnerability of space-based assets and services to hostile interference, the question presents itself whether, and under what circumstances, the collective defense commitment, as set out in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (NAT), arises in space. NATO’s ability and resolve to counter threats in space could be challenged due to the uncertain parameters of the right of self-defense itself when exercised in space and the geographical limits that Article 6 of the NAT imposes on the operation of Article 5 of the NAT.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

12300. NATO's China Problem

Author:
Blake Herzinger
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s strategic minds are increasingly occupied with how to handle the People’s Republic of China’s rise as a maritime power in Asia, but this focus is misguided. China is already a maritime power in the North Atlantic, and its influence is rapidly growing. This influence does not represent a crisis for the Alliance but does require addition of China to the Alliance’s strategic considerations within its area of responsibility. Additionally, the Alliance must account for extraregional competition between the U.S. and the PRC which could draw in alliance commitments in the event of escalation between the two powers.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and North America