Publication Year: within 3 Years and within 5 Years / Topic:

9951. El género del fin del mundo: aportes de la investigación feminista por la paz ante el mantropoceno (The Gender of the End of the World: Contributions of Feminist Peace Research in the Manthropocene)

Author:: Itziar Mujika Chao
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El debate del denominado Antropoceno se ha caracterizado por una mirada androcéntrica, pese a que diversas perspectivas feministas como los ecofeminismos o los nuevos feminismos materialistas lleven años realizando aportes sobre la sostenibilidad ecológica y planetaria. Este artículo explora los posibles aportes que se pueden realizar desde la investigación feminista por la paz a este debate, incluyendo así en los análisis feministas sobre la sostenibilidad de la vida en el planetauna mirada crítica en torno a los conflictos y el militarismo.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Feminism, Peace, and Anthropocene
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9952. Understanding Niger Delta’s violence from a World-Ecology perspective

Author:: Oscar Mateos
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: The conflict in the Niger Delta region (Nigeria) has become one of the most environmentally and humanly devastating contexts on the African continent since the 1960s. The network of different actors involved in this context forms a complex web in which multiple and asymmetrical dynamics and interactions can be identified. From Jason Moore’s World-Ecology perspective (2015), the article suggests that this complex interaction should not be understood as a mere postcolonial episode in the context of globalisation, but as a historical network of relations. This network, in which human and extra-human natures are intertwined, is key to understanding the process of capital accumulation in the region and the resulting capitalogenic violencesince the 16th century. Against this background, the article also attempts to counter the tendency to interpret violence and social resistance in the Niger Delta region as mere criminal phenomena or from narratives such as the “resource curse” that has simplified the multidimensionality of violence. In this sense, the paper analyses the different forms, strategies and meanings through which local resistance movements have tried to safeguard and re-appropriate their livelihoods and the commons in recent decades in the face of the growing presence of multinational oil corporations.
Topic:: Oil, Capitalism, Violence, and Ecology
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

9953. Research Perspectives and Boundaries of Thought: Security, Peace, Conflict, and the Anthropocene

Author:: Judith Nora Hardt
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: The geological era of the Anthropocene is expected to trigger a paradigm shift across the natural and social sciences. Within International Relations(IR), the arrival of the planetary has generated various debates that range from questioning the very future of the discipline to proposals for how to fix IR. This article takes stock of different research perspectives from three disciplines, namely IR, Earth System Sciences and New Materialism/Posthumanism. With reference to these different perspectives, it examines the ways in which peace, conflict and security are related to the Anthropocene. This panoramic overview reveals also certain demarcations between the research approaches, disciplines and study fields, and aims to trigger future research on overcoming these boundaries of thought and push the research on Anthropocene thinking further.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Conflict, Peace, and Anthropocene
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9954. Cuando la paz depende delos objetos cotidianos (When Peace Depends Upon Everyday Objects)

Author:: Pol Bargués
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Este artículo acude al pragmatismo filosófico para dar sentido a las crecientes sensibilidades“ neo-materialistas” o “socio-naturales”en los procesos de construcciónde paz. Se ha evolucionado de la idea de paz liberal, en que organizaciones internacionales trataban de imponer transiciones liberales y democráticas en sociedades afectadas por el conflicto, hacia intervenciones que promueven procesos de paz inclusivos y que dan importancia a los elementos materiales sobre los que se edifica el día a día de las gentes. Estos procesos son mucho más experimentales, inciertose imprevisibles. El pragmatismo de James y Dewey sirve tanto para entender las limitaciones y las críticas a la paz liberal, así como para intuir las oportunidades y riesgos que se toman cuando la paz depende delos objetos cotidianos.
Topic:: Philosophy, Peace, Liberalism, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9955. An Introduction to ‘Peace, Conflicts and Security in the Anthropocene: Ruptures and Limits’

Author:: Ignasi Torrent
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Throughout the last two decades, numerous disciplines across the natural and social sciences have witnessed the increasing influence of an emerging set of contemporary theoretical trends that delve into the entanglements between the human and its material milieu (see Haraway, 2016; Latour, 2005).Beyond rigid attributed labels, including new materialisms,Actor-Network theory, speculative realisms and object-orientedontology, amongst others, the genealogy of these theoretical movements arguably traces back to the confluence of two mutually reinforcing processes. On the one hand, the current unprecedented techno-scientific progress in areas such as Earth System Sciences and Science and Technology Studies has led to compelling narratives on unsettling events, including the potential effects of global warming as well as the uncertain future implications of developments in fields as, for instance, Artificial Intelligence. As a result of these challenges and speculations, the hypothetical finitude of the human being on the planet, far from abstract apocalyptic discourses, has become a strikingly perceptible experience. In other words, the stories about the distinctive, superior and masterful character of the human on Earth increasingly seem to fade, and its future seems unquestionably inextricable from broader beyond-the-human phenomena(see Tsing, 2015).The present age in which the human has compromised its own existence, or at least its position of dominance, to anthropogenic processes that surpass the sphere of human control has been defined by many scholars as the Anthropocene (see Crutzen &Stoermer, 2000).On the other hand, the tenets of this growing theoretical rubric claim the exhaustion and incapacity of the post-positivist paradigm, arguably the dominant register within critical theory over the last forty years, as unable to provide analytical tools that enhance the comprehensive understanding of the repositioning of the human in the Anthropocene era(see Bryant, Srnicek &Harman, 2011).To be precise, the limits of textual, discursive and semiotic methodological techniques are exposed as insufficient to capture and examine how Anthropocenic processes of transformation are reconfiguring the role of the human on the planet, let alone the relations with its environment.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, Peace, and Anthropocene
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9956. Recognizing Communities: Local Level Responses to the Pathfinders Grand Challenges

Author:: Tara Moayed
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: Communities are not homogenous. Within a single community, there are often divisions along class, ethnic, and gender lines. Further, not all communities are the same. Dynamics from one community to the next can widely diﬀer, including power relations, land allocations, gender dynamics, mobility, and the level of government inﬂuence. James Scott, in Seeing Like A State, showed how much of the vocabulary of state administration carries with it the mechanisms to disempower local authority and invest it in state agents who can then wield state authority. Rebalancing this relationship requires ﬁnding ways to overcome the monopolies over information, decision-making, and convening power that state agents have, particularly in systems that emerged from an extractive colonial context. Ignoring these dynamics when designing a CDD project will most likely result in elite capture, and possibly lead to local conﬂict, increased inequality, and erode trust between citizens and the state. This research paper argues the importance of the role of the community within the Pathﬁnders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies discussion over inequality. The paper’s case studies are based largely on government-led community-driven development (CDD) programs that aim to ensure recognition of the complicated dynamics within the community itself. Unless the heterogeneity of communities is considered and fostered through an inclusive design and facilitation process, no program or project can hope to impact inclusion, empowerment, and the citizen-state relationship. A deep understanding of community dynamics and good facilitation are prerequisites for any CDD model to have a positive social impact.
Topic:: Citizenship, State, Community, Society, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9957. Inequality, Lockdown, and COVID-19: Unequal Societies Struggle to Contain the Virus

Author:: Paul von Chamier
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: There is nothing equal about COVID-19. It is now well established that poor and underprivileged social groups have absorbed most of the pandemic’s negative impact. However, the connection between COVID-19 and inequality might run even deeper. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, one additional point of the Gini coefficient correlated with a 1.34 percentage point higher rate of weekly new infections across countries. This difference in infection rates compounds like interest every week. This means that after twenty-one weeks of the pandemic, just one additional Gini å correlates with an approximately 1/3 higher overall number of cases in a country. More equal countries might enjoy an “equality dividend” that is associated with more shock resilience during the ongoing crisis. This new research from CIC sought to understand if pre-existing systemic inequities could be linked to higher COVID-19 infection rates, examining infection rates in 70 countries from mid-March 2020 through early August 2020, or what is widely seen as the first 21 weeks of the pandemic. It also studied these nations’ levels of inequality and other potential predictive variables: government efficiency (a measure indicating quality of public services and civil service capability), urban population share, share of the population over the age of 65, lockdown measures (calculated by stringency), and geographic mobility (a population’s physical movements as measured by Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports). The study tracked inequality by using the “Gini Coefficient,” a commonly used metric for measuring income inequality within nations--or, specifically, how far a country’s wealth or income distribution deviates from a completely equal distribution. Under this calculation, the higher the coefficient, the greater the income inequality within that country.
Topic:: Inequality, Resilience, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Society
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9958. Introducing the Mind-the-Gap Index: A tool to understand urban spatial inequality

Author:: Jeni Klugman and Matthew Moore
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: Where people live exerts a strong influence on multiple aspects of their well-being, including their access to economic opportunities, education, health and other services and to their security, as well as other goals envisioned in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In a world with high and growing levels of urbanization, policy makers are increasingly aware that the future of inequality depends largely on what happens in cities. There is also concern that rising spatial inequality can lead to social unrest, rioting, increased crime, and erode trust among separated societal groups. The World Bank estimates that half of the area that will be urbanized by 2050 has not yet been built, which implies major opportunities for the policies and decisions affecting cities to shape the world we live in. First, this paper synthesizes several research papers regarding what we already know–drawing on recent research from UNDESA and others–to outline the extent of spatial disparities, the ways that spatial inequality shapes today’s cities, and the key factors driving spatial disparities. Additionally, the paper introduces a new index designed to capture key dimensions of spatial inequality, along with analysis of results from three pilot applications in Addis Ababa, Jakarta, and Mexico City which highlights the importance of granular and up-to-date data, as well as the accumulating nature of disadvantage in poor neighborhoods.
Topic:: Inequality, Sustainable Development Goals, and Urban
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Mexico

9959. Solidarity Taxes in the Context of Economic Recovery Following the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Attiya Waris
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: There are multiple examples of solidarity taxes imposed across country contexts over previous decades. The solidarity taxes that were levied were done to mitigate effects of a crisis such as a pandemic, as well as rebuilding of nations that had been affected by world wars (examples include Zimbabwe and Germany). Considering the renewed interest in solidarity taxes in the wake of COVID-19, author Attiya Waris reviews the history of solidarity taxes, and discusses key lessons from the past, in addition to drawing these lessons and findings into policy reccomendations moving forward.
Topic:: Tax Systems, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:: Germany, Zimbabwe, and Global Focus

9960. The Way We Voluntarily Pay Taxes

Author:: Ricardo Fuentes-Nieva
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: “Taxes are what you pay for a civilized society” stated US Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes in 1927. Time has shown that “civilized” means better lives and livelihoods for people where there is a solid tax base and collection–a necessary although insufficient condition for a society where people feel safe, heard, and participant in the decisions of the nation. A government that can efficiently collect taxes is a government with a solid administration and with legitimacy based on the fact that citizens pay their taxes by a combination of laws and a sense of duty and belonging. Paying taxes involves legal and moral obligations. The standard economic model for tax compliance assumes a cost-benefit calculation where someone balances the cost of being caught cheating the tax systems versus the benefit keeping some money hidden to the tax authorities. Yet there are other important reasons why people pay taxes that are not captured by a purely rational calculation. This background paper provides a framework that channels tax morale via trust and fairness directly and three elements for each one indirectly; trustworthiness of the government, reciprocity, and transparency/accountability for trust and three types of justice for fairness: distributive, procedural and retributive. This paper also makes a special distinction to the issue of corruption and how it relates to the elements within this framework. This paper will discuss the evidence on voluntary tax compliance, trust, and fairness, and the set of policies and actions that affect different mechanisms. It will provide a new framework based on the literature about the drivers of trust and fairness, with particular attention to the issue of corruption and also provide historical examples where specific interventions have successfully strengthened the tax system. Finally, it will provide ideas on how to identify the best sequence of interventions for increased tax morale in a specific context.
Topic:: Citizenship, Tax Systems, Peace, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9961. Digital Equity as an Enabling Platform for Equality and Inclusion

Author:: Laura E. Bailey and Nanjala Nyabola
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: The global pandemic has laid bare the digital inequities across vertical (income) and horizontal (social, political, and identity) dimensions, while exposing the extent to which pre-pandemic approaches to bridging the digital divide have been dominated by economic considerations even while they are not universally treated as policy priorities. Access to digital is a product of both material investment and political will. Where there is no conscious effort to include marginalized communities into digitalization plans, these communities can be left behind. In countries where identity-based exclusion is routinely built into political behavior, there can be systematic patterns of exclusion of specific groups (e.g., the indigenous First Peoples of North America, the Roma of Europe, or the Somali of northeast Kenya). Many countries around the world have such communities, and any work to digitalize a country must be founded on politically and socially conscious efforts to include groups that may be left behind by historical marginalization. This brief reviews key aspects of the digital divide, with special attention to exclusion and inequality, emphasizing that poor connectivity isn’t just about wealth—it is also about inequality. This paper examines the following: That COVID-19 has shown how poor policymaking in digital access and use deepens the current inequalities in addition to creating new ones, Digital equity through recent thinking, research—and why it matters, and Experience with digital equity initiatives (pre- and post-pandemic). Finally, the authors provide key recommendations for potential digital policies and interventions that can advance equality and inclusion.
Topic:: Inequality, Digital Culture, COVID-19, and Exclusion
Political Geography:: South Asia and Latin America

9962. Social Dialogue as a Tool to Fight Inequality & Recover After a Pandemic

Author:: Liv Tørres
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: Si vis pacem, cole justitiam” – “If you desire peace, cultivate justice,” is the motto enshrined in the foundations of the International Labour Organization’s (ILO) building in Geneva, established in 1919. World War I, the Russian Revolution, and the fear of communism that followed, had convinced world leaders that, “universal and lasting peace can be established only if it is based upon social justice,” as they stated in the 1919 Versailles Treaty. Widespread injustice, inequalities, and exclusion were the enemies of peace. Many would argue they are no less relevant today. Over the past 100 years, “social compacts” and “social dialogue” are frequently referenced all over the world as tools to achieve shared growth and prosperity, better working conditions, higher living standards, and higher productivity. Social dialogue is often seen as a miraculous recipe for sustainable development, decent work, and growth, especially in times of crisis or recovery. This was seen in South Africa, where institutions were established as part of the effort to rebuild after Apartheid. It has also occurred periodically in Latin America when social issues have become contentious. The concept was evoked in the U.S.’ New Deal of the 1930s following the economic “crash,” as well as in crisis-torn Scandinavia in the same decade. Now, social dialogue has emerged again among those who are now planning priorities for next decade in the face of massive challenges amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Liv Tørres considers the following questions in this paper: what actually is social dialogue and what value may it hold for post-pandemic management and recovery?
Topic:: Inequality, Peace, COVID-19, Injustice, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: South Africa and Africa

9963. Inclusive COVID-19 Relief Finance

Author:: Amanda Lenhardt
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has turned all countries’ attention to mitigating the impacts of the crisis, and with this attention has come a wave of finance to address the immediate health risks of the disease and the indirect effects on economies and on well-being. With this influx of spending on welfare and resilience, many have looked on with hope that this collective effort can be done in such a way that the world can ‘build back better.’ But, like any building project, the foundation is critical. This paper sets out to investigate whether countries are investing in the foundational social and economic structures that have led to the vulnerabilities currently upending people’s lives. Failure to address the structural inequalities embedded within societies and across the global political economic structure will ultimately leave the new structure vulnerable to collapse in the long term, and risks exposing marginalized groups to the harshest impacts of the crisis in the short term.
Topic:: Economy, Crisis Management, COVID-19, Marginalization, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: South Asia, East Asia, South Africa, and Latin America

9964. Bridging the Silos: Integrating Strategies across Armed Conflict, Violent Crime, and Violent Extremism to Advance the UN’s Prevention Agenda

Author:: Céline Monnier and Daniel Mack
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: The consequences of violence worldwide are dire. More than half a million people die from violent deaths each year. In 2019, violence cost the global economy $14.5 trillion USD, or $1,909 USD per person. Countries with armed conflicts account for 80 percent of humanitarian spending. Beyond these cold numbers, the human toll of violence results in the suffering of families, trauma-affected communities, and increased fear and hopelessness. Different types of violence—such as crime, violent extremism, and armed conflict—are often interlinked and share risk and resilience factors. Although currently siloed, the UN system has the capacities and knowledge to develop approaches to prevention that cut across interlinked forms of violence. This policy paper makes the argument that the UN can and should adopt a more integrated violence prevention strategy across these three forms of violence. It draws from desk review of UN and academic documents, interviews with UN staff working on different types of violence prevention across the UN system, and a workshop among them. The paper discusses why there is a need for more integrated prevention approaches across different types of violence, what benefits that would bring, and what challenges need to be overcome first. It concludes by making four recommendations: governments should use the SDG 16.1 framework to bring actors together at national level; member states should ask the UN to develop evidence-based guidelines on prevention for countries to implement themselves; the UN should initiate a strategic dialogue at headquarters between fields to better identify commonalities in approaches; and country teams should develop an integrated strategy with specialized sub-strategies.
Topic:: United Nations, International Security, Peace, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9965. Shared Capital Initiatives – for Redistribution and Recognition

Author:: Sanjay Reddy
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: Shared capital, defined as a broadly distributed pattern of rights over productive assets, can be a powerful instrument to address economic and social inequalities. We argue that initiatives to bring about shared capital can foster both redistribution and recognition, and thereby bring about more inclusive and peaceful societies. Based on experience, we suggest moreover that they are feasible and can be advanced by suitable policies and actions—at local, national, and global levels. Shared capital can involve distribution of various rights of an asset, including those of use, control, income, and transfer. This paper considers nine cases which feature some experience of shared capital involving various kinds of rights being distributed and relate these to different kinds of assets. In almost every case, the state has an important role to play in facilitating the distribution of rights.
Topic:: Regulation, Inequality, Peace, Sustainability, Capital, Redistribution, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9966. Social Contracts: A Pathway for More Inclusive Societies

Author:: Erin McCandless
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: States and societies are in crisis around the world, as questions arise around the nature and quality of existing social contracts. COVID-19 has laid bare profound vulnerabilities within and across societies. The global pandemic is revealing deep failures in policy visions, institutional fragility, and incapacities of states to harness societal compliance where trust and a sense of national belonging is weak. At the same time, our interdependencies have never been so clear, as all countries, developed and underdeveloped alike, confront similar challenges. Crisis, however, offers opportunity to do things better, to build forward better – strengthening social contracts at all levels. How then, can social contracts, and compacting in times of crisis, offer pathways to address inequality and exclusion? This paper considers how social contracts can offer frameworks to foster new thinking and shape transformative policy to build more inclusive societies. Such frameworks should tie bold new policy visions to robust and resilient institutional arrangements that uproot harmful structural legacies with lasting effect for inclusive and peaceful societies. They must also offer means to address material conditions of inequality, and those related to recognition, identity, and dignity. The cases of South Africa, Tunisia, Colombia, and South Korea reveal that, while not easy nor predictable, such pathways exist. Key findings in this briefing include: Inequality and exclusion stem from policy choices and are fueled by corruption; they undermine foundations of inclusive and resilient national social contracts, e.g. trust in government and societal willingness to consent to difficult policy choices; Participation in formal electoral processes is declining while protest is rising, indicating a lack of faith in existing politics and institutional mechanisms for resolving conflict and fostering consensual politics; and Civil society movements in and across countries are advancing more inclusive social contracts that tackle vulnerability and risk through a variety of innovative means that deserve greater support.
Topic:: Peace, Justice, Social Contract, COVID-19, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Middle East, East Asia, South Africa, and Latin America

9967. Social Contracts: Embracing a Just Technological and Energy Transition

Author:: Ian Goldin
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: Social contracts determine what is to be provided and by whom. In democracies, political processes determine these outcomes, with the extent to which individuals, communities, cities, businesses, governments, and other actors and institutions provide education, health, security, infrastructure, and justice to shape what comes to be understood as the social contract. Whether prevailing social contracts produce desirable consequences, such as human rights, individual freedom, self-determination, human development, prosperity, and equality reflects their efficacy. What is considered an effective contract in the US or Europe, may however be viewed very differently in China, with the priorities and norms associated with shaping social contracts, as well as the means to achieve them, varying from country to country and over time. In this brief, author Ian Goldin shows that many existing social contracts are inadequate and require renewal to overcome countries’ failures to address the needs of the majority of their citizens. New pressures on societies arising from the pace of change associated with the technological and energy revolutions have created an urgent need to build new social contracts which ensure that no one is left behind. This need has been made all the more urgent by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has shown the extent to which large parts of society—informal sector workers, uninsured self-employed, unemployed, migrants, and others—have fallen by the wayside due to outdated or non-existent social contracts. Establishing secure and comprehensive social contracts is not synonymous with the establishment of a welfare state, as this is only one way to secure effective social contracts. How welfare states adapt to meet the new technological and energy transition, and which other models may serve to build effective social contracts is a key question.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Peace, Justice, Social Contract, Transition, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9968. Essential Workers

Author:: Ian Goldin
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the extent to which we rely on essential workers. Around the world, health workers have been greeted by clapping, but this has not translated into improvements in their working conditions or pay. On the contrary, as COVID-19 cases and deaths have mounted, so too have the pressures and fatalities among health and other essential workers. A new deal for essential workers is not only the right thing to do on ethical and other grounds. It is in everyone’s self-interest. Without a new deal for essential workers, societies will not be able to respond to the intensifying cycle of crises that arise from an increasingly complex, interconnected, and unstable world. Whether it is a natural disaster, large-scale terrorism, geopolitical hostilities, or another pandemic, it is only a matter of time before society must again face down a crisis of unprecedented scale. To build resilience, we need a well-trained, deeply committed, and full complement of essential workers who will rise to the challenge. A new deal for these workers should be seen as a central tenet of creating more resilient economies, and an investment to reduce risk and future proof our societies. In order to close the widening divide between the rhetoric and reality, author Ian Goldin argues in this policy brief paper that a new deal is required for essential workers and begins by defining essential workers and laying out the key facts around the prevailing socioeconomic background for such workers. It then draws on the experience of mitigating and compensating for risks in other socially necessary but hazardous occupations, such as the military, and uses this to define the contours of what a new deal for essential workers should look like.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Employment, Peace, Justice, COVID-19, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9969. Employment Transitions

Author:: Ian Goldin
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: The world of work is undergoing a fundamental transformation that will impact on workers and job seekers everywhere. Among the key drivers of this change are the climate emergency, demographic shifts and technological revolutions. Far from heralding better lives, the employment transition which was created by the industrial revolution led to immense hardships, rapidly rising pollution and heightened levels of poverty, malnutrition, and civil strife, culminating in the French and other revolutions. Today we are faced with an even more rapid, radical, and wide-ranging transformation of work, which threatens to be as disrupting. This time, however, we have the means to analyze and prepare for change. The purpose of this research paper is to identify how employment is being transformed and to examine the options for a just transition, which will lead to improvements for workers around the world. Author Ian Goldin begins this paper by identifying the challenge we are facing. It then defines employment transitions and lays out the weaknesses of current models of employment. Finally, it suggests policy options which tackle transitional assistance for workers, aiming to draw overall conclusions on what works in different economies.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Employment, Transition, and Workforce
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9970. From Rhetoric to Action: Delivering Equality & Inclusion

Author:: Faiza Shaheen, Sarah Cliffe, Liv Tørres, Paula Sevilla Núñez, Paul von Chamier, Amanda Lenhardt, Nendirmwa Noel, Alexander Bossakov, and Avner Cohen
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: The flagship report of the Pathfinders Grand Challenge on Inequality and Exclusion is about the solutions that will deliver equality and inclusion. It is the culmination of several years of research and mobilization undertaken by a unique partnership of ten countries, the United Nations, the World Bank, the OECD, Oxfam, and CIVICUS, along with numerous partners and international experts. The report constructs a bridge between the rhetoric of “build back better” and action: a bridge between promise and progress. The report draws on the lived experiences and desires of people across countries around the world. To understand citizens' concerns about inequalities, their policy priorities, and their desire for change, Pathfinders commissioned a public opinion survey in eight countries: Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico, Sierra Leone, South Korea, Sweden, Tunisia, and Uruguay. These opinion surveys show an immense preoccupation with societal divisions and a consensus that more needs to be done to address them. Additionally, it underlines the need for renewed social contracts between citizens, civil society, the private sector, and governments, as well as between high and low- and middle-income countries. These social contracts must be built to serve future generations, to guard against climate breakdown and pandemics while delivering respect, opportunity, and justice for all. The report should serve as a practical handbook for policymakers and influencers; as a source of possibility for the public; and, as a call to all political leaders to act.
Topic:: Civil Society, Government, Inequality, Research, Social Justice, Exclusion, and Equality
Political Geography:: Canada, South Korea, Uruguay, Sierra Leone, Sweden, Mexico, Tunisia, and Costa Rica

9971. Seeing in the Dark: Real-Time Monitoring in Humanitarian Crises

Author:: Daniel Maxwell, Erin Lentz, Kamau Wanjohi, Daniel Molla, Matthew Day, Peter Hailey, Christopher Newton, and Anna Colom
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: Humanitarian information systems typically provide analysis to predict crisis, assess needs, direct program resources, and assess short- to medium-term effects of programs. But much of this information is “chunky”—a single estimate of “needs,” for example, can be expected to direct resources and programming for up to a full year (IASC 2020). A single early warning scenario might be expected to provide information about potential hazards and the exposure of population to the ill-effects of that hazard for three to four months. And almost by definition, early warning analyses are grounded in known and likely hazards, “population in need” (PIN) figures are based on the impacts of known shocks, and program resources are (or should be) allocated on the basis of known and projected PIN figures. There have long been questions about the timeliness of humanitarian information and especially about the extent to which information initiates appropriate and timely actions (Buchanan-Smith and Davies 1995; Bailey 2012; Lentz et al. 2020). And there have always been concerns that circumstances can change in shorter time periods than standard humanitarian analysis procedures can pick up, so interest in real-time monitoring (RTM) as a component of humanitarian information systems has increased for at least the past decade or so (FSNAU 2015).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Humanitarian Aid, Famine, Food Security, Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Nutrition
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Somalia, Malawi, South Sudan, and Africa

9972. Tackling Hate in the Homeland: US Radical Right Narratives and Counter-narratives at a Time of Renewed Threat

Author:: William Allchorn
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This country report, written by Dr. William Allchorn, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:: Radicalization, Ideology, Violence, Radical Right, and Militias
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

9973. From Direct Action to Terrorism: Canadian Radical Right Narratives and Counter-narratives at a Time of Volatility

Author:: William Allchorn
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This country report, written by Dr. William Allchorn, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:: Terrorism, Ideology, Radical Right, Political Extremism, Narrative, and Direct Action
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

9974. Australian Radical Right Narratives and Counter-Narratives in An Age of Terrorism

Author:: William Allchorn
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This country report is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter-narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter-narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:: Radicalization, Ideology, Radical Right, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:: Australia and Australia/Pacific

9975. From Gangs to Groupuscules and Solo-Actor Terrorism: New Zealand Radical Right Narratives and Counter-narratives in the Context of the Christchurch Attack

Author:: William Allchorn
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This country report, written by Dr. William Allchorn, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Radicalization, Ideology, Violence, Radical Right, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific and New Zealand

9976. Bringing Back the Golden Age: Hungarian Radical Right Narratives and Counternarratives in Light of Historical Revisionism

Author:: Balša Lubarda
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This country report, written by Balša Lubarda, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:: Ideology, Radical Right, Political Extremism, and Narrative
Political Geography:: Europe and Hungary

9977. The Muslim Resolutions: Bosniak Responses to World War II Atrocities in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Please join us for a talk with Hikmet Karčić, genocide scholar and author of The Muslim Resolutions: Bosniak Responses to World War II Atrocities in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Center for Islam in the Contemporary World, June 2021). Moderated by Tanya Domi (SIPA/Harriman Institute).
Topic:: Genocide, Religion, Discrimination, World War II, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Bosnia and Herzegovina

9978. Muslims in the 18th-Century Habsburg Cities: The Social Integration of an Unincorporated Population

Author:: David Do Paco
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Please join the Harriman Institute and East Central European Center for a lecture by David Do Paço, István Deák Visiting Professor at Columbia University (Harriman Institute and Department of History). This lecture explores the social life of unincorporated populations in community-based societies, and analyzes how they used the social fabric of global cities to compensate for their administrative marginality, and still have a political impact. It specifically focuses on Muslims in port, continental, and recently reconquered cities in the Habsburg Empire throughout the 18th century to overcome the traditional opposition between “Islam” and “Europe,” and to support the development of inclusive memory policies. It examines the multiple affiliations of fragile populations and offers a new history of foreigners in early modern Europe. It thus fits into the perspective of a new urban history from the ground up and advocates a trans-imperial and global history of Central Europe. David Do Paço is István Deák Visiting Professor at Columbia University (Harriman Institute and Department of History) and a historian of the Habsburg Empire in the 18th century. His research lies at the intersection of urban history, diaspora studies, and historical anthropology. He defended his Ph.D. in 2012 at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and has since been a EUI Max-Weber Fellow and a CEU-IAS Core Fellow. In 2015, he published his first monograph, L’Orient à Vienne au dix-huitième siècle, as part of the Oxford University Studies in the Enlightenment (Voltaire Foundation). That same year, David joined Sciences Po where, among other responsibilities, he directed the departmental seminar in European History. At Columbia University he is working on his new project “ESLAM: European Societies in the Light of Apolitical Muslims.” He has recently contributed to the Historical Journal, Urban History, and the International History Review.
Topic:: Religion, Minorities, Urban, Cities, and Integration
Political Geography:: Europe and Habsburg Empire

9979. Russian Relations with Central Asia and Afghanistan after U.S. Withdrawal

Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Join us for a meeting of the New York-Russia Public Policy Series, co-hosted by the Harriman Institute at Columbia University and the New York University Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia. In this second event of the academic year, our panelists will discuss the status of Russian relations with Central Asia and Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrawal. Moderated by Joshua Tucker (NYU Jordan Center) and Alexander Cooley (Harriman Institute). The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan and the dramatic collapse of the U.S.-backed government in Kabul has ushered in another period of Taliban rule. Regional powers and neighbors have been anticipating the U.S. exit for some time: Russia remains a critical player in the region and, even before the U.S. withdrawal, had demonstrated a pragmatic approach to engaging with the Taliban. What is Moscow’s plan for dealing with the new Afghan government and what are its overall priorities in the region? How will this affect Russia’s relations with the Central Asian states and China? And are there any prospects for renewed cooperation between Moscow and Washington on counterterrorism issues in this period of uncertainty and potential instability? Please join this distinguished group of academic experts who will explore the new complex dynamics of a post-American Afghanistan and Central Asia. This event is supported by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York. Speakers Ivan Safranchuk, Director of the Center of Euro-Asian Research and Senior Fellow with the Institute for International Studies, MGIMO Nargis Kassenova, Senior Fellow and Director of the Program on Central Asia, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University Artemy Kalinovsky, Professor of Russian, Soviet, and post-Soviet Studies, Temple University Ekaterina Stepanova, Director, Peace and Conflict Studies Unit, National Research Institute of the World Economy & International Relations (IMEMO), Moderated by: Alexander Cooley, Director of the Harriman Institute, Columbia University Joshua Tucker, Director of the Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia, New York University
Topic:: International Relations, Military Strategy, Governance, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

9980. From Street-based Activism to Terrorism and Political Violence: UK Radical Right Narratives and Counter-Narratives at a Time of Transition

Author:: William Allchorn
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This country report, written by Dr. William Allchorn, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:: Violence, Radical Right, Political Extremism, Narrative, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

9981. Cordon of Conformity: Why DSGE models Are Not the Future of Macroeconomics

Author:: Servaas Storm
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The Rebuilding Macroeconomic Theory Project, led by David Vines and Samuel Wills (2020), is an important, albeit long overdue, initiative to rethink a failing mainstream macroeconomics. Professors Vines and Wills, who must be congratulated for stepping up to the challenge of trying to make mainstream macroeconomics relevant again, call for a new multiple-equilibrium and diverse (MEADE) paradigm for macroeconomics. Their idea is to start with simple models, ideally two-dimensional sketches, that explain mechanisms that can cause multiple equilibria. These mechanisms should then be incorporated into larger DSGE models in a new, multiple-equilibrium synthesis – to see how the fundamental pieces of the economy fit together, subject to it being ‘properly micro-founded’. This paper argues that the MEADE paradigm is bound to fail, because it maintains the DSGE model as the unifying framework at the center of macroeconomic analysis. The paper reviews 10 fundamental weaknesses inherent in DSGE models which make these models irreparably useless for macroeconomic policy analysis. Mainstream macroeconomics must put DSGE models, once and for all, in the Museum of Implausible Economic Models – and learn important lessons from non-DSGE macroeconomic approaches.
Topic:: Economics, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Money, Demand, and Models
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9982. Lessons for the Age of Consequences: COVID-19 and the Macroeconomy

Author:: Servaas Storm
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Based on comparative empirical evidence for 22 major OECD countries, I argue that country differences in cumulative mortality impacts of SARS-CoV-2 are largely caused by: (1) weaknesses in public health competence by country; (2) pre-existing country-wise variations in structural socio-economic and public health vulnerabilities; and (3) the presence of fiscal constraints. The paper argues that these pre-existing conditions, all favorable to the coronavirus, have been created, and amplified, by four decades of neoliberal macroeconomic policies – in particular by (a) the deadly emphasis on fiscal austerity (which diminished public health capacities, damaged public health and deepened inequalities and vulnerabilities); (b) the obsessive belief of macroeconomists in a trade-off between ‘efficiency’ and ‘equity’, which is mostly used to erroneously justify rampant inequality; (c) the complicit endorsement by mainstream macro of the unchecked power over monetary and fiscal policy-making of global finance and the rentier class; and (d) the unhealthy aversion of mainstream macro (and MMT) to raising taxes, which deceives the public about the necessity to raise taxes to counter the excessive liquidity preference of the rentiers and to realign the interests of finance and of the real economy. The paper concludes by outlining a few lessons for a saner macroeconomics.
Topic:: Global Recession, Economic Inequality, Macroeconomics, Austerity, Public Health, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9983. Mass Incarceration Retards Racial Integration

Author:: Peter Temin
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: President Nixon replaced President Johnson’s War on Poverty with his War on Drugs in 1971. This new drug war was expanded by President Reagan and others to create mass incarceration. The United States currently has a higher percentage of its citizens incarcerated than any other industrial country. Although Blacks are only 13 percent of the population, they are 40 percent of the incarcerated. The literatures on the causes and effects of mass incarceration are largely distinct, and I combine them to show the effects of mass incarceration on racial integration. Racial prejudice produced mass incarceration, and mass incarceration now retards racial integration.
Topic:: Education, War on Drugs, Mass Incarceration, Integration, and Racism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

9984. The Long Search for Stability: Financial Cooperation to Address Global Risks in the East Asian Region

Author:: C. P. Chandrasekhar
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Forced by the 1997 Southeast Asian crisis to recognize the external vulnerabilities that openness to volatile capital flows result in and upset over the post-crisis policy responses imposed by the IMF, countries in the sub-region saw the need for a regional financial safety net that can pre-empt or mitigate future crises. At the outset, the aim of the initiative, then led by Japan, was to create a facility or design a mechanism that was independent of the United States and the IMF, since the former was less concerned with vulnerabilities in Asia than it was in Latin America and that the latter’s recommendations proved damaging for countries in the region. But US opposition and inherited geopolitical tensions in the region blocked Japan’s initial proposal to establish an Asian Monetary Fund, a kind of regional IMF. As an alternative, the ASEAN+3 grouping (ASEAN members plus China, Japan and South Korea) opted for more flexible arrangements, at the core of which was a network of multilateral and bilateral central bank swap agreements. While central bank swap agreements have played a role in crisis management, the effort to make them the central instruments of a cooperatively established regional safety net, the Chiang Mai Initiative, failed. During the crises of 2008 and 2020 countries covered by the Initiative chose not to rely on the facility, preferring to turn to multilateral institutions such as the ADB, World Bank and IMF or enter into bilateral agreements within and outside the region for assistance. The fundamental problem was that because of an effort to appease the US and the IMF and the use of the IMF as a foil against the dominance of a regional power like Japan, the regional arrangement was not a real alternative to traditional sources of balance of payments support. In particular, access to significant financial assistance under the arrangement required a country to be supported first by an IMF program and be subject to the IMF’s conditions and surveillance. The failure of the multilateral effort meant that a specifically Asian safety net independent of the US and the IMF had to be one constructed by a regional power involving support for a network of bilateral agreements. Japan was the first regional power to seek to build such a network through it post-1997 Miyazawa Initiative. But its own complex relationship with the US meant that its intervention could not be sustained, more so because of the crisis that engulfed Japan in 1990. But the prospect of regional independence in crisis resolution has revived with the rise of China as a regional and global power. This time both economics and China’s independence from the US seem to improve prospects of successful regional cooperation to address financial vulnerability. A history of tensions between China and its neighbours and the fear of Chinese dominance may yet lead to one more failure. But, as of now, the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s support for a large number of bilateral swap arrangements and its participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership seem to suggest that Asian countries may finally come into their own.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Financial Crisis, Central Bank, IMF, Liberalization, Financial Globalization, and Financial Integration
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

9985. On the Non-Inflationary effects of Long-Term Unemployment Reductions

Author:: Walter Paternesi Meloni, Davide Romaniello, and Antonella Stirati
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The paper critically examines the New Keynesian explanation of hysteresis based on the role of long-term unemployment. We first examine its analytical foundations, according to which rehiring long-term unemployed individuals would not be possible without accelerating inflation. Then we empirically assess its validity along two lines of inquiry. First, we investigate the reversibility of long-term unemployment. Then we focus on episodes of sustained long-term unemployment reductions to check for inflationary effects. Specifically, in a panel of 25 OECD countries (from 1983 to 2016), we verify by means of local projections whether they are associated with inflationary pressures in a subsequent five-year window. Two main results emerge: i) the evolution of the long-term unemployment rate is almost completely synchronous with the dynamics of the total unemployment rate, both during downswings and upswings; ii) we do not find indications of accelerating or persistently higher inflation during and after episodes of strong declines in the longterm unemployment rate, even when they occur in country-years in which the actual unemployment rate was estimated to be below a conventionally estimated Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). Our results call into question the role of long-term unemployment in causing hysteresis and provide support to policy implications that are at variance with the conventional wisdom that regards the NAIRU as an inflationary barrier.
Topic:: Inflation, Macroeconomics, Unemployment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9986. Country Risk

Author:: Tarek A. Hassan, Jesse Schreger, Markus Schwedeler, and Ahmed Tahoun
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: We construct new measures of country risk and sentiment as perceived by global investors and executives using textual analysis of the quarterly earnings calls of publicly listed firms around the world. Our quarterly measures cover 45 countries from 2002-2020. We use our measures to provide a novel characterization of country risk and to provide a harmonized definition of crises. We demonstrate that elevated perceptions of a country's riskiness are associated with significant falls in local asset prices and capital outflows, even after global financial conditions are controlled for. Increases in country risk are associated with reductions in firm-level investment and employment. We also show direct evidence of a novel type of contagion, where foreign risk is transmitted across borders through firm-level exposures. Exposed firms suffer falling market valuations and significantly retrench their hiring and investment in response to crises abroad. Finally, we provide direct evidence that heterogeneous currency loadings on global risk help explain the cross-country pattern of interest rates and currency risk premia.
Topic:: Economics, Employment, Investment, Risk, and Contagion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9987. The Updated Okun Method for Estimation of Potential Output with Broad Measures of Labor Underutilization: An Empirical Analysis

Author:: Claudia Fontanari, Antonella Palumbo, and Chiara Salvatori
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper extends to different indicators of labor underutilization the Updated Okun Method (UOM) for estimation of potential output proposed in Fontanari et al (2020), which, from a demand-led growth perspective, regards potential output as an empirical approximation to fullemployment output, as in A.M.Okun’s (1962) original method. Based on the apparent incapability of the official rate of unemployment to fully account for labor underutilization, in this paper we offer estimates of Okun’s law both with broad unemployment indicators and with an indicator of ‘standardized hours worked’ which we propose as a novel measure of the labor input. The paper reflects on the possible different empirical measures of full employment. The various measures of potential output that we extract from our analysis show greater output gaps than those produced by standard methods, thus highlighting a systematic tendency of the latter to underestimate potential output. Output gaps that underestimate the size of the output loss or that tend to close too soon during recovery, may produce a bias towards untimely restriction.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Demand, and Unemployment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9988. Bagehot for Central Bankers

Author:: Laurent Le Maux
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Walter Bagehot (1873) published his famous book, Lombard Street, almost 150 years ago. The adage “lending freely against good collateral at a penalty rate” is associated with his name and his book has always been set on a pedestal and is still considered as the leading reference on the role of lender of last resort. Nonetheless, without a clear understanding of the theoretical grounds and the institutional features of the British banking system, any interpretation of Bagehot’s writings remains vague if not misleading—which is worrisome if they are supposed to provide a guideline for policy makers. The purpose of the present paper is to determine whether Bagehot’s recommendation remains relevant for modern central bankers or whether it was indigenous to the monetary and banking architecture of Victorian times.
Topic:: Economics, History, Central Bank, and Lending
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9989. Automotive Global Value Chains in Europe

Author:: Matteo Gaddi and Nadia Garbellini
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: In this paper we examine the main transformations that are affecting European automotive industry and which challenges, in particular due to the transition to new forms of propulsion, the industry is going to face. The automotive industry is central to the European economy and the nature of the Global Value Chains are rapidly shifting. While individual countries have developed economic plans to address this, a broader EU wide plan is critically important to addressing the employment and environmental effects of these shifts.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, European Union, Manufacturing, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:: Europe

9990. How Milton Friedman Exploited White Supremacy to Privatize Education

Author:: Nancy MacLean
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper traces the origins of today’s campaigns for school vouchers and other modes of public funding for private education to efforts by Milton Friedman beginning in 1955. It reveals that the endgame of the “school choice” enterprise for libertarians was not then— and is not now--to enhance education for all children; it was a strategy, ultimately, to offload the full cost of schooling onto parents as part of a larger quest to privatize public services and resources. Based on extensive original archival research, this paper shows how Friedman’s case for vouchers to promote “educational freedom” buttressed the case of Southern advocates of the policy of massive resistance to Brown v. Board of Education. His approach—supported by many other Mont Pelerin Society members and leading libertarians of the day --taught white supremacists a more sophisticated, and for more than a decade, court-proof way to preserve Jim Crow. All they had to do was cease overt focus on race and instead deploy a neoliberal language of personal liberty, government failure and the need for market competition in the provision of public education.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Supreme Court, White Supremacy, Segregation, Private Schools, School Choice, and Public Schools
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

9991. Why the CHIPS Are Down: Stock Buybacks and Subsidies in the U.S. Semiconductor Industry

Author:: William Lazonick and Matt Hopkins
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) is promoting the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) for America Act, introduced in Congress in June 2020. An SIA press release describes the bill as “bipartisan legislation that would invest tens of billions of dollars in semiconductor manufacturing incentives and research initiatives over the next 5-10 years to strengthen and sustain American leadership in chip technology, which is essential to our country’s economy and national security.” On June 8, 2021, the Senate approved $52 billion for the CHIPS for America Act, dedicated to supporting the U.S. semiconductor industry over the next decade. This paper highlights a curious paradox: Most of the SIA corporate members now lobbying for the CHIPS for America Act have squandered past support that the U.S. semiconductor industry has received from the U.S. government for decades by using their corporate cash to do buybacks to boost their own companies’ stock prices. Among the SIA corporate signatories of a letter to President Biden in February 2021, the five largest stock repurchasers—Intel, IBM, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, and Broadcom—did a combined $249 billion in buybacks over the decade 2011-2020, equal to 71 percent of their profits and almost five times the subsidies over the next decade for which the SIA is lobbying. In addition, among the members of the Semiconductors in America Coalition (SIAC), formed specifically in May 2021 to lobby Congress for the passage of the CHIPS for America Act, are Apple, Microsoft, Cisco, and Google. These firms spent a combined $633 billion on buybacks during 2011-2020. That is about 12 times the government subsidies provided under the CHIPS for America Act to support semiconductor fabrication in the United States in the upcoming decade. If the Congress wants to achieve the legislation’s stated purpose of promoting major new investments in semiconductors, it needs to deal with this paradox. It could, for example, require the SIA and SIAC to extract pledges from its member corporations that they will cease doing stock buybacks as open-market repurchases over the next ten years. Such regulation could be a first step in rescinding Securities and Exchange Commission Rule 10b-18, which has since 1982 been a major cause of extreme income inequality and loss of global industrial competitiveness in the United States.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Regulation, Legislation, Strategic Competition, Subsidies, and Lobbying
Political Geography:: United States of America

9992. Why do Sovereign Borrowers Post Collateral? Evidence from the 19th Century

Author:: Marc Flandreau, Stefano Pietrosanti, and Carlotta E. Schuster
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper explores the reasons why sovereign borrowers post collateral. Such behavior is paradoxical because conventional interpretations of collateral stress repossession of the assets pledged as the key to securing lenders against information asymmetries and moral hazard. However, repossession is generally difficult in the case of sovereign debt and in some cases impossible. Nevertheless, such sovereign “hypothecations” have a long history and are again becoming very popular today in developing countries. To explain sovereign collateralization, we emphasize an informational channel. Posting collateral produces information on opaque borrowers by displaying borrowers’ behavior and resources. We support this interpretation by examining the hypothecation “mania” of 1849-1875, when sovereigns borrowing in the London Stock Exchange pledged all kinds of intangible revenues. Yet, at that time, sovereign immunity fully protected both sovereigns and their assets and possessions. Still, we show that hypothecations significantly decreased the cost of sovereign debt. To explain how, we stress the pledges’ role in documenting sovereigns’ wealth and the management of revenue streams. Based on an exhaustive library of bond prospectuses collected from primary sources, matched with a panel of sovereign bond yields and an innovative measure of sovereign fiscal transparency, we show that collateral minutely described in debt covenants served to document and monitor sovereign resources and development prospects. Encasing this information in contracts written by lawyers served to certify the quality of the resulting data disclosure process, explaining investors’ readiness to pay a premium.
Topic:: Economics, Finance, History, Innovation, Contracts, Sovereign Debt, and Collateral
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9993. Ambivalence About International Trade in Open- and Closed-ended Survey Responses

Author:: Arturo Chang, Thomas Ferguson, Jacob Rothschild, and Benjamin I. Page
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Spontaneous, open-ended survey responses can sometimes better reveal what is actually on people’s minds than small sets of forced-choice, closed questions. Our analysis of closed questions and trade-related open-ended responses to 2016 ANES “likes” and “dislikes” prompts indicate that Americans held considerably more complex, more ambivalent, and – in many cases – more negative views of international trade than has been apparent in studies that focus only on closed-ended responses. This paper suggests that contrast between open- and closed-question data may help explain why the effectiveness of Donald Trump’s appeals to trade resentments surprised many observers.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Public Opinion, Free Trade, Donald Trump, and Data
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

9994. Mexico’s Automotive Industry: A Success Story?

Author:: Jorge Carreto Sanginés, Margherita Russo, and Annamaria Simonazzi
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: In less than three decades Mexico’s automotive industry has gone from a minor role to the 7th largest world producer of automotive vehicles. The Mexican experience is part of the more general case of the “integrated peripheries.” The development of these cannot be accounted for separately from the developments occurring in its core country. Unlike the core-periphery literature, however, our analysis emphasizes that the various clusters of cores and integrated peripheries are not alike. In the case under study, the core has been systematically lagging behind the main transformations pioneered by its competitors. The paper traces the evolution of the Mexican automotive industry, emphasizing the difficulties faced by a late-comer country in developing an independent industry, and the importance of policy choices as well as the macroeconomic context in affecting its development. NAFTA represents the culmination of an integration process that has profoundly transformed the structure of the Mexican automotive industry, deepening its dependence on the US market. While there is no doubt that it has contributed to the spectacular growth of the Mexican auto industry, whether it also increased its resilience or, rather, its dependence is still an open question. This issue is particularly relevant in view of the transformations that are taking place in the automotive sector and in the geopolitical scenario. These include the end of NAFTA and the advent of USMCA, the entry of powerful competitors into the global market, and the transition to electric and autonomous vehicles, which all entail risks and opportunities. The lens of the centre-periphery relationship can help to understand the present integration of North America and its future direction.
Topic:: Networks, Manufacturing, Trade Policy, Production, and Automotive Industry
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

9995. Employment Mobility and the Belated Emergence of the Black Middle Class

Author:: Joshua Weitz, William Lazonick, and Philip Moss
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: As the Covid-19 pandemic takes its disproportionate toll on African Americans, the historical perspective in this working paper provides insight into the socioeconomic conditions under which President-elect Joe Biden’s campaign promise to “build back better” might actually begin to deliver the equal employment opportunity that was promised by Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Far from becoming the Great Society that President Lyndon Johnson promised, the United States has devolved into a greedy society in which economic inequality has run rampant, leaving most African Americans behind. In this installment of our “Fifty Years After” project, we sketch a long-term historical perspective on the Black employment experience from the last decades of the nineteenth century into the 1970s. We follow the transition from the cotton economy of the post-slavery South to the migration that accelerated during World War I as large numbers of Blacks sought employment in mass-production industries in Northern cities such as Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Chicago. For the interwar decades, we focus in particular on the Black employment experience in the Detroit automobile industry. During World War II, especially under pressure from President Roosevelt’s Fair Employment Practices Committee, Blacks experienced tangible upward employment mobility, only to see much of it disappear with demobilization. In the 1960s and into the 1970s, however, supported by the Civil Rights Act and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, Blacks made significant advances in employment opportunity, especially by moving up the blue-collar occupational hierarchy into semiskilled and skilled unionized jobs. These employment gains for Blacks occurred within a specific historical context that included a) strong demand for blue-collar and clerical labor in the U.S. mass-production industries, which still dominated in global competition; b) the unquestioned employment norm within major U.S. business corporations of a career with one company, supported at the blue-collar level by massproduction unions that had become accepted institutions in the U.S. business system; c) the upward intergenerational mobility of white households from blue-collar employment requiring no more than a high-school education to white-collar employment requiring a higher education, creating space for Blacks to fill the blue-collar void; and d) a relative absence of an influx of immigrants as labor-market competition to Black employment. As we will document in the remaining papers in this series, from the 1980s these conditions changed dramatically, resulting in erosion of the blue-collar gains that Blacks had achieved in the 1960s and 1970s as the Great Society promise of equal employment opportunity for all Americans disappeared.
Topic:: Government, History, Employment, Inequality, Mobility, Unions, Middle Class, New Deal, African Americans, and Great Migration
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

9996. Local David Versus Global Goliath: Populist Parties and the Decline of Progressive Politics in Italy

Author:: Matteo Cavallaro
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the role of local spending, particularly on social welfare, and local inequality as factors in the Italian political crisis following the adoption in 2011 of more radical national austerity measures. We employ two different methods. First, we develop an original database of municipal budgets. There we show that even the lowest level of social welfare spending, that offered by Italian municipalities, though also hit by austerity, was still able to moderate this national shock. We test three operationalizations of local spending: aggregate current expenditures, aggregate current expenditures on social services, and current expenditures disaggregated by function. We show that municipal current expenditures, particularly on social spending, significantly affected the post-2011 share of votes for the progressive coalition. The results also show that social spending, especially on education, significantly moderated the combined effect of national austerity and the economic crisis on voting for populist radical right parties, while no significant results appeared for populist parties in general. Local inequality appears to significantly enhance vote shares of populist radical right parties and populist parties in general. We caution that, although significant, the effect is not strong: that local policy and economic conditions can moderate national shocks but cannot reverse them. The second analysis relies on survey data to ascertain the individual-level mechanisms behind the role of local welfare. The paper argues that local economic inputs influence voters’ position on non-economic issues. Our results, however, do not identify any significant individual-level channel of transmission, be it cultural or economic.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Inequality, Populism, and Austerity
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

9997. Inflation? It’s Import Prices and the Labor Share!

Author:: Lance Taylor and Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Recognizing that inflation of the value of output and its costs of production must be equal, we focus on a cost-based macroeconomic structuralist approach in contrast to micro-oriented monetarist analysis. For decades the import and profit shares of cost have risen, while the wage share has declined to around 50% with money wage increases lagging the sum of growth rates of prices and productivity. Conflicting claims to income are the underlying source of inflationary pressure. Inflation affects income (labor’s spending power) and wealth. Monetarist theory around 1900 concentrated on the latter (Bryan and the “Cross of Gold)” leading to the standard Laffer curve. It was replaced by the Friedman-Phelps model which has incorrect dynamics (labor payments do not fall during an expansion – they go up). Samuelson and Solow introduced a version of the Phillips curve that violates macroeconomic accounting. Rational expectations replaced Friedman but was immediately falsified by output drops after the Volcker shock treatment around 1980. There followed a complicated transition from rational expectations to inflation targeting, anchored by economists’ misunderstanding of the physical meaning of ergodicity and ontological blindness. It did not help that the real balance effect is irrelevant because money makes up a small part of wealth. Rather than issuing veiled threats of disaster if its policy advice is not followed, the Fed now announces inflation targets which it cannot meet. Contemporary structuralist theory suggests that conflicting income claims set the inflation rate. Firms can mark up costs but workers have latent bargaining power over the labor share that they can exercise. Import costs and policy repercussions complicate the picture, but a simple vector error correction model and visual analysis suggest that money wages would have to grow one percentage point faster than prices plus productivity for several years if the Fed is to meet a three percent inflation target. The results pose a Biden policy trilemma: (i) the only path toward a more egalitarian size distribution of income is through a rising labor share (money wage growth exceeds price plus productivity growth), (ii) which would provoke faster inflation with feedback to rising interest rates, and (iii) the resulting asset price deflation likely facing political resistance from Wall Street and affluent households.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Inflation, Imports, and Structuralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9998. Artificial Intelligence, Globalization, and Strategies for Economic Development

Author:: Anton Korinek and Joseph E. Stiglitz
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Progress in artificial intelligence and related forms of automation technologies threatens to reverse the gains that developing countries and emerging markets have experienced from integrating into the world economy over the past half century, aggravating poverty and inequality. The new technologies have the tendency to be labor-saving, resource-saving, and to give rise to winner-takes-all dynamics that advantage developed countries. We analyze the economic forces behind these developments and describe economic policies that would mitigate the adverse effects on developing and emerging economies while leveraging the potential gains from technological advances. We also describe reforms to our global system of economic governance that would share the benefits of AI more widely with developing countries.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, Science and Technology, Inequality, Artificial Intelligence, and Redistribution
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9999. The Erroneous Foundations of Law and Economics

Author:: Mark Glick and Gabriel A. Lozada
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The fundamental originating principle of law and economics (L&E) is that legal decisions should be (and are) based on maximizing efficiency. But L&E proponents do not define “efficiency” in the way agreed to by most economists, as Pareto Efficiency. A Pareto optimal condition is obtained when no one can be made better off without making someone worse off. Pareto Improvements are win-win changes where no losers exist. In the judicial system, however, there are always winners and losers, because under Article III § 2 of the Constitution a legal case does not exist unless there is a justiciable “case or controversy” in need of resolution. Unable to use Pareto Efficiency, L&E scholars have been forced to adopt alternative definitions of efficiency. Most L&E scholars claim to define “efficiency” based on the work of Kaldor and Hicks, but (perhaps unwittingly) instead use a definition of “efficiency” derived from the 19th century idea of consumer surplus, which encompasses L&E notions such as “wealth maximization,” and “consumer welfare” in antitrust. Neither of these alternative definitions is viable, however. Outside of L&E, the Kaldor-Hicks approach has long been recognized to be riddled with logical inconsistencies and ethical failures, and the surplus approach is even more deficient. Remarkably, virtually none of the numerous L&E textbooks even hint at such problems. Critically, all definitions of efficiency improvements in economics are biased in favor of wealthy individuals or firms, either because they are dependent on the status quo ante distribution of assets, or because they bestow large advantages on parties with political influence or who can afford to bring lawsuits quickly. Many L&E practitioners treat efficiency improvements instead as being objectively good, an error revealing that L&E is primarily motivated by its neoliberal policy agenda.
Topic:: Economics, Law, Neoliberalism, and Efficiency
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10000. The Political Economy of India’s Transition to Goods and Services Tax

Author:: Chanchal Kumar Sharma
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: What kept the Goods and Services Tax (GST) from becoming a reality in India for a quarter of a century after the adoption of the structural adjustment programme in 1991? What made it possible in 2016? To what extent the Indian model of GST reflects a compromise between the need to keep fiscal federalism intact and to respond to a more global economic imperative? To what extent India’s transition to a concurrent dual GST has brought about a change in the principles, rules, frameworks, and institutions guiding intergovernmental fiscal interactions? This paper investigates these issues and shows that the shifts in the indirect tax regime in India since independence have taken place within the structural context of constitutional rules, the economic policy paradigm and political dynamics. Party congruence after 2014 helped to facilitate the introduction of the GST, but the shape thereof was strongly marked by path-dependent logics and the role of state governments as institutional veto players. In addition, the paper examines the ways in which India’s transition to a concurrent dual GST has brought about a fundamental change in the principles, rules, frameworks, and institutions guiding intergovernmental fiscal interactions.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Governance, Tax Systems, Institutions, and Services
Political Geography:: India and Asia

« Previous
Next »
1
2
…
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
…
257
258

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS