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12301. Migration, Borders, and the EU’s Capacity to Act

Author:
Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
This in-depth monitoring study assesses the EU’s capacity to handle migration. Why does the European Union respond so badly to migration crises? And why does it repeatedly allow itself to be blackmailed by neighboring states which extract concessions in return for holding back migrants? The ongoing situation at the EU’s border to Belarus is no isolated incident. It reveals vulnerabilities resulting directly from the way the EU regulates its borders and international migration. Over the past decade, a pattern has emerged: the more the EU tries to defend the Schengen Area, its passport-free travel zone, the more vulnerable it makes itself.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, and Borders
Political Geography:
Europe and Belarus

12302. The Digital Technology Environment and Europe’s Capacity to Act

Author:
Tyson Barker
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
This monitoring study explores the EU’s capacity to act in digital technology across five categories: 1) how the EU defines the problem it is attempting to address; 2) how the EU sets an agenda; 3) how the EU formulates policy; 4) how the EU implements policy; and 5) to what degree European policy has an impact at home and globally. Ultimately, the EU’s policy success will be determined by its ability to shore up areas where it is weakest and establish constant and interactive benchmarking to create honest performance assessments. The EU must set out clearly defined objectives that confront the tough questions of “what is essential” and “what is nice to have.”
Topic:
Environment, Science and Technology, and Digitization
Political Geography:
Europe

12303. Women and Minors in Tertiary Prevention of Islamist Extremism

Author:
Sofia Koller
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Over the past years, the role of gender issues in addressing and preventing Islamist extremism has received increased attention. Since the fall of the ‘caliphate’ of the so-called Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS), most of the returnees to Western European countries have been women who had joined ISIS and other Jihadist organizations. Many travelled with children who had been brought along on the initial journey or who were born abroad. Working with women and minors, especially returnees, has become one of the main challenges for actors in tertiary prevention of Islamist extremism.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, Women, Islamic State, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Middle East

12304. Communicating in Tertiary ­Prevention of Islamist Extremism

Author:
Sofia Koller
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Tertiary prevention of (violent) Islamist extremism includes measures designed to encourage and support (violent) extremists in prison and in liberty in their efforts to leave their milieus, deradicalize, decriminalize, and reintegrate into society. Actors in tertiary prevention thus intervene in a multitude of contexts and work with various stakeholders. The growing understanding of the complexity of radicalization and deradicalization processes as well as practical experiences leave no doubt that multi-agency cooperation and communication is crucial to be able to reach most potential clients. However, one of the main challenges of professionals working in tertiary prevention is to identify potential points of contact, set up effective frameworks for sharing information, and establish long term relationships.
Topic:
Security, Communications, Violent Extremism, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Europe

12305. Towards More Effective Deradicalization: Urgent Recommendations for Addressing Violent Islamist Extremism

Author:
Sofia Koller
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Violent Islamist extremism is still one of the biggest threats to internal security as well as societal cohesion in the EU. As a crucial part of any comprehensive counterstrategy, tertiary prevention encompasses measures designed to encourage and support (violent) extremists in prison and in society to leave their milieus, deradicalize, decriminalize, and reintegrate into society.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, European Union, Islamism, and Deradicalization
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

12306. Building European Resilience and Capacity to Act: Lessons for 2030

Author:
Roderick Parkes, Anna-Lena Kirch, and Serafine Dinkel
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Containing twelve scenarios for the world in 2030, this report offers insights into how the EU can maintain and build up its capacity to act in the face of the major disruptive changes that are likely to come over this decade. It is being released in the run-up to German elections in September 2021 that will serve as a kind of referendum on ten years of government-heavy crisis management.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Science and Technology, Elections, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

12307. China’s Nuclear Arms Race: How Beijing Is Challenging US Dominance in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Elisabeth Suh and Leonie Reicheneder
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
China is building up its military capabilities. Not only is the country investing heavily in conventional arms, but it is also modernizing its nuclear weapons. To secure its nuclear deterrent, China is diversifying its delivery systems. The United States sees this as a challenge to its military superiority in the Indo-Pacific region. Washington and Beijing are both fueling a qualitative arms race by investing in new capabilities. This spiral poses risks to stability that affect Germany and Europe as well.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Geopolitics, and Military
Political Geography:
China, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

12308. New Caledonia Prepares for Third and Final Referendum on Independence from France

Author:
Ashley Westerman
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Ashley Westerman, Freelance Journalist and Producer, explains that a turnover in government, along with changing demographics, are what analysts believe could edge New Caledonia towards voting for independence in the December 12 referendum.
Topic:
Demographics, Sovereignty, Independence, and Referendum
Political Geography:
France, Asia-Pacific, and New Caledonia

12309. Sustainable Infrastructure Offers Opportunities for U.S. – Thai Cooperation

Author:
Courtney Weatherby
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Courtney Weatherby, Deputy Director and Research Analyst for the Southeast Asia and Energy, Water, & Sustainability programs at the Stimson Center, explains that “Thailand’s forward-looking focus on climate resilience provides ample opportunities for bilateral collaboration with the United States.”
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

12310. Revitalize the Thai-U.S. Alliance by Tackling 21st Century Challenges: Let’s Start by Working Together to Address Marine Plastic Debris

Author:
Piper Anne Wind Campbell
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Ambassador (retired) Piper Anne Wind Campbell, Adjunct Professorial Lecturer at American University and former Chargé US Mission to ASEAN, explains that “In both countries, it seems, our younger populations are not aware of interesting joint initiatives that could inspire a greater sense of collaboration and alliance. The solution is to go beyond a defense emphasis and to revitalize the Thai-US alliance by tackling 21st century challenges.”
Topic:
Alliance, Youth, Pollution, and Plastic
Political Geography:
North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

12311. How to Move the Thailand-U.S. Strategic Alliance Forward

Author:
Darmp Sukontasap
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Darmp Sukontasap, Director, Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies, Rangsit University, Thailand, explains that “gone are the days when an alliance is viewed exclusively from the security and military perspective. The geopolitical realities of the 21st century require alliances to encompass agendas which are non-military, non-political and non-confrontational.”
Topic:
Geopolitics, Alliance, Strategic Interests, and Military
Political Geography:
North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

12312. The Prospects of Thailand-U.S. Economic Cooperation

Author:
Kaewkamol Karen Pitakdumrongkit
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) of Nanyang Technological University, Singapore., explains that “data runs contrary to the perception that Bangkok is leaning towards Beijing… Thailand embraces American economic clout while dreading its Chinese counterpart.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

12313. Can U.S. Assistance Reinvigorate the U.S.-Thai Alliance?

Author:
Thomas Parks
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Thomas Parks, The Asia Foundation, explains that “US-Thai relations matter now more than ever. Since 2018, the United States has been expanding security cooperation with Thailand, after the historic lows of the post-2014 coup years.”
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Alliance
Political Geography:
North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

12314. Thai-U.S. Bilateral Relations: Benefits and Challenges

Author:
Arunrat Chumroentaweesup
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Arunrat Chumroentaweesup, Consulting Manager at Tractus Asia, explains that “American firms enjoy two significant benefits. First, US entities are permitted to maintain a majority shareholding or to wholly own a company, branch office or representative office located in Thailand. Second, US companies are permitted to engage in business on almost the same footing as Thai firms and are exempted from most of the foreign investment restrictions imposed by the Foreign Business Act.”
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Business
Political Geography:
North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

12315. U.S.-Thai Economic Prospects–Turning A New Page

Author:
Judy A. Benn
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Judy A. Benn, Former Executive Director American Chamber of Commerce in Thailand, explains that “for Thailand to take full advantage of post-pandemic opportunities and reignite its economy to make-up for the last 18 months, the nation will need to capitalize on its centralized geographic location and position as one of Southeast Asia’s strongest manufacturing bases.”
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Regulation, and Economy
Political Geography:
North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

12316. Old Ally, New Direction: Cobra Gold and Beyond

Author:
Kitti Prasirtsuk
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Kitti Prasirtsuk, Ph.D., a Professor of International Relations at Thammasat University, explains that despite strained U.S.-Thai relations over the past decade, the Cobra Gold (CG) military exercise “equates to a win for both sides” and “is the cornerstone of the US-Thailand alliance, representing a major bond between the two nations in their post-Vietnam War relations.” As President Biden is strengthening alliance cooperation, the administration will likely revisit the U.S.-Thailand alliance. However, it is important to consider how the context for the alliance has changed.
Topic:
International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, and Alliance
Political Geography:
North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

12317. Learning from Tumultuous Times: An Analysis of Vulnerable Sectors in International Trade in the Context of the Corona Health Crisis

Author:
Oliver Reiter and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic marks an unprecedented shock to global growth and trade and brought international dependencies into the spotlight. This triggered discussions on resilience and robustness of global value chains. In this paper we assess which products can be considered as vulnerable to trade shocks at the global level – referred to as ‘risky’ products – by constructing a ‘product riskiness indicator’ for 4700 globally traded products based on components such as market concentration, clustering tendencies, network centrality of players, or international substitutability. In a second step the bilateral imports of risky products are matched to multi-country input-output tables enabling the analysis of the importance of internationally sourced risky products by country and using industries. Higher-tech industries are more prone to supply-chain vulnerability given the large share of risky products in high-tech product categories. Third, we apply a ‘partial global extraction method’ to assess the GDP impact of reshoring. Assuming that imports of risky products are re-shored from non-EU27 to EU27 countries suggests an increase in the EU27 GDP of up to 0.5%. The non-EU27 countries lose from such re-shoring activities accordingly. This suggests that it is also in the interest of the supplier countries and industries to assure robust or at least resilient supply chains. Finally, selected policy aspects in the context of the envisaged EU Open Strategic Autonomy are debated.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, European Union, Economic Growth, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

12318. To Grow or Not to Grow: Belarus and Lithuania

Author:
Thorvaldur Gylfason and Eduard Hochreiter
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
We compare the economic growth performance of Belarus and Lithuania since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Our interest in this country pair is driven by the two countries´ interwoven histories as well as by the fact that Belarus remains autocratic and strongly tied to Russia, while Lithuania has reinvented itself as a democratic market economy fully integrated into the EU. Our aim is to better understand the extent to which the growth differential between the two countries can be traced to increased efficiency, i.e., total factor productivity, in the use of capital and other resources via, inter alia, better institutions (intensive growth) as opposed to sheer accumulation of capital (extensive growth), the hallmark of Soviet economic growth. To this end, we compare the development of some key determinants of growth in the two countries since the 1990s. A simple growth accounting model suggests that advances in education at all levels, good governance, and institutional reforms have played a more significant role in raising economic output and efficiency in Lithuania than in Belarus, which remains marred by problems related to weak governance as well as autocratic rule. Further, as in Estonia and Latvia, the EU perspective has made a significant contribution to growth in Lithuania. The Russian connection has done less for Belarus. Finally, we touch upon the impact of the corona virus on the economies of the two countries.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Economic Growth, Post-Soviet Space, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Lithuania, and Belarus

12319. Production and Trade of ICT from an EU Perspective

Author:
Amat Adarov, Dimitrios Exadaktylos, Mahdi Ghodsi, Robert Stehrer, and Roman Stöllinger
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The competitiveness of industries and countries is shaped more and more by technological advancement in the production and use of information and communications technology (ICT). This report considers the supply side of ICT goods and services. It studies the drivers of ICT production location and trade across countries with a focus on the relative position of the EU. The analyses clearly indicate that the EU must step up its efforts to accelerate the shift towards digital production and strengthening the ICT sector that produces the required technologies and services. In addition, from a trade policy perspective, a harmonised set of standards and regulatory framework is to be aimed at to minimise mismatches in technical specifications and requirements. This will lead to the diffusion of positive externalities and should allow for a smooth operation of the global value chains in these products.
Topic:
Communications, European Union, Trade, Information Technology, Digitalization, and Production
Political Geography:
Europe

12320. EU Employment Dynamics: The Pandemic Years and Beyond

Author:
Stefan Jestl and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The economic shock induced by the pandemic has plunged European economies into a recession. Lockdowns and social distancing measures have affected economic life in a substantial way, with industries and population groups facing varying difficulties. This study explores potential future employment dynamics across European industries and employment groups for the period up to 2026 by drawing on past sectoral trends and the latest macroeconomic forecast results from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Commission. A scenario analysis is also carried out, taking into account the great uncertainty and risks that are related to the baseline forecasts.
Topic:
Labor Issues, European Union, Employment, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Europe

12321. Economic Sentiment Indicators and Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Evidence from European Union Countries

Author:
Andrzej Cieślik and Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper studies the role of business sentiment in the decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs) to undertake foreign direct investment (FDI) across European Union (EU) member states. Based on the knowledge-capital model, the study employs the Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator and panel data to examine empirically the determinants of FDI across EU member states during the period 2003-2017. The empirical evidence suggests that better economic sentiment in an EU Member State induces MNEs to undertake FDI in that country, while worse economic sentiment in an EU member state motivates an MNE in that country to invest abroad.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Business, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
Europe

12322. Interactions Between Global Value Chains and Foreign Direct Investment: A Network Approach

Author:
Amat Adarov
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The world economy is increasingly shaped by cross-border production and investment activity. The paper uses complex network analysis along with panel data econometric techniques to study the structure and interactions between the networks of global value chains (GVC) and foreign direct investment (FDI). The analysis reveals that both FDI and GVC networks have a distinct core-periphery structure dominated by a relatively small number of countries with the USA constituting the global hub interlinked with regional European and Asian clusters, which, in turn, are centered around regional hub countries like China and Germany. Simultaneous equation model regressions using three-stage least squares suggest that FDI centrality facilitates GVC centrality of countries. However, FDI centrality is driven to a large extent by the FDI statutory restrictions and tax offshore regulations, rather than GVC connectivity.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Borders, Networks, Macroeconomics, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12323. Labour Taxes and International Trade: The Role of Domestic Labour Value Added

Author:
Amat Adarov, Mario Holzner, Branimir Jovanovic, and Goran Vukšić
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper revisits the relationship between labour taxation and international trade, focusing on the role of domestic labour value added. Using sectoral data from 41 EU and OECD economies over the period 2005-2014, we assess how labour taxes affect exports and imports and how domestic labour value added shapes this relationship. We find that higher labour taxes reduce exports but that the effect depends to a large extent on the share of domestic labour value added, which differs by industries, countries and time periods. Imports do not seem to be affected. This implies that changes in labour taxes will not affect all sectors and countries in the same way and that policy makers should be aware of this when deciding on labour taxes. We also calculate the contribution of labour tax changes to the export dynamics in the analysed period and sample of countries, finding that in general the contribution is small.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, Tax Systems, Exports, and Imports
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12324. The Gap that Survived the Transition: The Gender Wage Gap over Three Decades in Estonia

Author:
Jaanika Meriküll and Maryna Tverdostup
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper looks at the gender wage gap throughout the transition from communism to capitalism and throughout a time of rapid economic convergence. The case of Estonia is used, and micro data from the Labour Force Survey from 1989 to 2020 are employed. The communist regimes had highly regulated wage setting and high levels of educational attainment and labour market participation for women. Although the regime was formally egalitarian, the gender attitudes were conservative and the raw gender wage gap was as large as 41% at the end of the communist period in Estonia. The large gender wage gap under communist rule narrowed quickly during the first years of economic transition, but the further decline in the gap has been slow. The paper has two main messages. The first is that there is strong inertia in the gender wage gap persisting through the communist period and economic convergence. None of the known long-run cultural drivers of gender attitudes can explain this. The second is that the decline in the gap is related to the overall decline in wage inequality, the rise in minimum wages, and more egalitarian gender attitudes. The gender attitudes are responsible for a smaller effect than wage inequality is.
Topic:
Economy, Minimum Wage, Post-Soviet Space, Wage Income, Attitudes, and Gender Wage Gap
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Estonia

12325. Is ICT Still Polarising Labour Demand after the Crisis?

Author:
David Pichler and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The impact of ICT capital accumulation and digitisation on labour demand and wage structures has changed in recent years, according to some of the literature on the subject. We analyse the impact of ICT capital accumulation based on recent data differentiating between the period before and after the global financial crisis. Methodologically, we draw on Michaels, Natraj and van Reenen (2014) and are able to corroborate their findings for the period 1980-2004, whereas we find distinctly different patterns since 2011. Results suggest a negative relationship between changes in ICT intensity and the wage share for high-skilled workers, whereas medium-skilled workers were the main beneficiaries in sectors that experienced a more intensive digitisation process. These results are chiefly driven by the dynamics in the Central and Eastern European economies and the service industries. The effect of digitisation on low-skilled workers does not reveal any robust significant impact.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Economies, Demand, Polarization, Skills, and Wages
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Central Europe

12326. Impact of Technical Barriers to Trade on the Trade in Goods in the Information and Communications Technology Sector: Differentiating by Aim of the Regulatory Measure

Author:
Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
In this modern digital world, goods from the information and communications technology (ICT) sector are the engine of the global economy. While tariffs levied on ICT goods have been eliminated or significantly reduced since the conclusion in December 1996 of the Information Technology Agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO), non-tariff measure (NTMs) have come to be used more frequently with regard to imports of these goods. Technical barriers to trade (TBTs), as the most important trade policy measure imposed on imports of ICT goods, form the focus of this study. This paper analyses how different types of TBTs imposed on imports of ICT goods globally affected the values and volumes of imported goods at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) during the period 1996-2018. Keywords cited in the TBTs notified to the WTO give an indication of the aims behind the imposition of TBTs. Therefore, this study digs deeper into the impact of 30 types of TBT, using the keywords cited. The methodology used in this paper controls for zero trade flows using the Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique; and it controls for endogeneity bias using the exogenous instrumental variable approach. Furthermore, the paper provides more detailed analysis of the impact of TBTs across five ICT product categories that are defined by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The results indicate that TBTs have a generally strong positive impact on the value of imports of ICT goods. While many keywords cited in TBTs notified to the WTO affect the values and volumes of imports in a positive way, certain other TBTs function as trade barriers that reduce their values and volumes.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Communications, World Trade Organization, Tariffs, and Information Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12327. Source – Assembly – Sink: Value Added Flows in the Global Economy

Author:
Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
In this paper we provide a method to characterise global value chains and a related decomposition of bilateral gross exports by distinguishing three different stages of the value-added flows: (i) the source of value added, (ii) the final assembly stage of a product, and (iii) the final absorption (sink) of this product. Methodologically this is embedded in a simple framework using matrix algebra allowing for intuitive interpretations of the individual decomposition terms and results. The approach leads to a novel decomposition of bilateral gross export flows and related value-added trade indicators. It is shown how these correspond to existing measures using the property of inverse matrices. Specifically, the paper sheds light on the nature of the double-counting terms discussed in the literature. Finally, the approach outlined is extended by incorporating insights from the hypothetical extraction method. We argue that this is a complementary approach which however can be used to flexibly define the value chains of interest and characterise the respective flows that are considered part of this defined value chain, again carefully differentiating the source, assembly, and sink dimensions.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Economy, Exports, Global Value Chains, and Decomposition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12328. Heterogeneous Effects of Non-tariff Measures on Cross-border Investments: Bilateral Firm-level Analysis

Author:
Amat Adarov and Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
We analyse the heterogeneous effects of technical regulations and safety standards embodied in non-tariff measures on foreign direct investment using global firm-level panel data of bilateral cross-border ownership relationships over the period 2008-2018. To this end, we develop a novel measure of time-varying bilateral ad valorem equivalents of sectoral non-tariff measures, which reveals that technical barriers to trade (TBTs) played a much greater role as a trade-inhibiting factor in comparison with import tariffs and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures over the period 1996-2018, with their relative importance increasing in the post-Great Recession period. Estimations using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood framework reveal the importance of non-tariff measures as a driver of foreign direct investment, with heterogeneous effects observed for the measures imposed by the host and the home country, as well as across sectors and types of non-tariff measures. Among other results, we find that an increase in the stringency of technical barriers to trade imposed by the host country is associated with higher investment in the foreign subsidiaries operating in this country, pointing to the regulatory barrier-jumping motive of foreign direct investment. The effect is much stronger for the multinational corporations operating in the information and communications technology sector.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, and Business
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12329. Do Higher Public Debt Levels Reduce Economic Growth?

Author:
Philipp Heimberger
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
While the effect of higher public debt levels on economic growth has received much attention, the literature partly points to contradictory results. This paper applies meta-regression methods to 826 estimates from 48 primary studies. The unweighted mean of the reported results suggests: a 10 percentage points increase in public-debt-to-GDP is associated with a decline in annual growth rates by 0.14 percentage points, with a 95% confidence interval from 0.10 to 0.18 percentage points. However, we cannot reject a zero effect after correcting for publication bias. Furthermore, the meta-regression analysis shows that tackling endogeneity between public debt and growth makes estimates lean less towards the negative side. In testing for non-linear effects, our results do not point to a universal public-debt-to-GDP threshold beyond which growth slows: threshold estimates are sensitive to data and econometric choices. These findings imply a lack of evidence of a consistently negative growth effect of higher public-debt-to-GDP.
Topic:
GDP, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12330. How do Corporate Taxes affect International Trade?

Author:
Mario Holzner, Branimir Jovanovic, and Goran Vukšić
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper investigates how corporate income taxes affect international trade, and identifies the underlying channel. Using data on 33 NACE sectors, for 34 EU and OECD economies, over the period 2005-2014, we find that corporate income taxes reduce exports and imports only when the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) is high. The effect is present primarily in the service sector and in countries with low corporate taxes. We interpret these findings as evidence that multinational enterprises reduce their operations in countries that raise their corporate taxes. The effect has been found to be small on aggregate, implying that the expected increase in corporate taxes in the future, arising from the global minimum tax, is unlikely to hurt international trade.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Tax Systems, Exports, Profit, Imports, and Corporations
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12331. Israel and the Persian Gulf: A Source of Security or Conflict?

Author:
Steven Simon
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
• In the current geopolitical context, the Abraham Accords, which normalized Israel’s relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain during the final months of the Trump administration, could prove destabilizing by lowering the bar for Israeli military action against Iran.1 • The destabilizing potential of the Abraham Accords will increase if talks to revive the Iran nuclear agreement collapse. This, in turn, suggests that revival of the accord, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, remains important for U.S. security and regional stability. • By securing the JCPOA and supporting diplomacy between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the U.S. maximizes the viability and utility of the Abraham Accords as well as their compatibility with a new and more inclusive regional security architecture. But supporting only the Abraham Accords without reentering the JCPOA and encouraging multilateral dialogue among the Arab Gulf states and Iran could transform the accords from a potential strategic asset to a liability.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Persian Gulf

12332. Will a Military Withdrawal from the Middle East Leave a Vacuum?

Author:
Mark Perry
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
• The Biden administration must not allow disputes among combatant commanders about resource allocation to dictate decisions concerning U.S. force posture. The White House has acknowledged that the Middle East is no longer as central a concern to our national security as it once was and that the U.S. must reshape its military presence in the region. • Fears that Russia or China might take advantage of a reduction in the U.S. military presence in the Middle East are exaggerated. China and Russia have both benefited from America’s willingness to shoulder the security burden of the Middle East. • Washington should complement its reduced military presence in the Middle East with greater diplomatic involvement. The objectives should be retaining influence and advancing U.S. interests in a peaceful and stable environment.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, and Military
Political Geography:
Middle East

12333. Promoting Peace and Stability in the Maritime Order Amid China’s Rise

Author:
Rachel Esplin Odell
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
A shift in the balance of maritime power in the Indo–Pacific region is contributing to rising tensions. This shift is accompanied by a mismatch in perceptions between the United States and China, which is in turn driving a dangerous great-power rivalry at sea. China’s growing presence, assertive behavior, and expansive claims in the maritime domain are also provoking a backlash among China’s neighbors and even some countries far from its shores. While these tensions have thus far remained under control, they could erupt into conflict if not carefully managed. To promote peace and stability in the South China Sea and beyond, the United States should pursue a bilateral détente with China in the maritime domain while also promoting the development of a more inclusive regional and global maritime order. The specific steps the United States should implement include: • Incentivize reduced militarization of the disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea, and support compromise between China and other claimants to maritime jurisdiction and rights; • Significantly reduce the frequency of freedom of navigation operations, and instead promote bilateral and regional agreements on military activities at sea; and • Build more robust maritime crisis-management mechanisms with China.
Topic:
Maritime, Crisis Management, Peace, Strategic Stability, and Militarization
Political Geography:
China, United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and South China Sea

12334. Drawdown: Improving U.S. and Global Security Through Military Base Closures Abroad

Author:
David Vine, Patterson Deppen, and Leah Bolger
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
Despite the withdrawal of U.S. military bases and troops from Afghanistan, the United States continues to maintain around 750 military bases abroad in 80 foreign countries and colonies (territories). These bases are costly in a number of ways: financially, politically, socially, and environmentally. U.S. bases in foreign lands often raise geopolitical tensions, support undemocratic regimes, and serve as a recruiting tool for militant groups opposed to the U.S. presence and the governments its presence bolsters. In other cases, foreign bases are being used and have made it easier for the United States to launch and execute disastrous wars, including those in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya. Across the political spectrum and even within the U.S. military there is growing recognition that many overseas bases should have been closed decades ago, but bureaucratic inertia and misguided political interests have kept them open. Amid an ongoing “Global Posture Review,” the Biden administration has a historic opportunity to close hundreds of unnecessary military bases abroad and improve national and international security in the process. The Pentagon, since Fiscal Year 2018, has failed to publish its previously annual list of U.S. bases abroad. As far as we know, this brief presents the fullest public accounting of U.S. bases and military outposts worldwide. The lists and map included in this report illustrate the many problems associated with these overseas bases, offering a tool that can help policymakers plan urgently needed base closures. Fast facts on overseas U.S. military outposts • There are approximately 750 U.S. military base sites abroad in 80 foreign countries and colonies. • The United States has nearly three times as many bases abroad (750) as U.S. embassies, consulates, and missions worldwide (276). • While there are approximately half as many installations as at the Cold War’s end, U.S. bases have spread to twice as many countries and colonies (from 40 to 80) in the same time, with large concentrations of facilities in the Middle East, East Asia, parts of Europe, and Africa. • The United States has at least three times as many overseas bases as all other countries combined. • U.S. bases abroad cost taxpayers an estimated $55 billion annually. • Construction of military infrastructure abroad has cost taxpayers at least $70 billion since 2000, and could total well over $100 billion. • Bases abroad have helped the United States launch wars and other combat operations in at least 25 countries since 2001. • U.S. installations are found in at least 38 non-democratic countries and colonies.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, and Military Bases
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

12335. China and the Persian Gulf in the Aftermath of a U.S. Withdrawal

Author:
Steven Simon
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
• Given longstanding U.S. economic ties to the Arab Gulf states, the withdrawal of the U.S. military would not mean the United States is departing from the region. Even if it did signify that, however, China would be unlikely to fill the vacuum. A U.S. decision to maintain a military presence in the region should therefore not be based on fear of a strategic vacuum that China will fill to America’s disadvantage. • The United States should leverage China’s interest in stable cross–Gulf relations by working in tandem with Beijing to encourage dialogue and confidence-building measures. • The United States should monitor Chinese military deployments to the Indian Ocean and work with Gulf partners to set limits on China’s military use of air and naval bases. This would serve as a confidence-building measure and ensure that the Gulf does not become an arena for competition amid heightened Sino–American tensions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Military Affairs, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Persian Gulf, and United States of America

12336. Climate Change: The Greatest National Security Threat to the United States

Author:
Anatol Lieven
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
Climate change presents threats to the United States and the wellbeing of its citizens that dwarf those from Russia, China, or Iran. U.S. government policies and priorities should be reoriented accordingly. The necessary policy changes are these: • U.S. strategy toward China should be crafted and focused with a view to making sure tensions between the two countries do not impede international action against climate change. A zero-sum relationship between the great powers will ensure continued prioritization of manageable military threats over existential climate perils. This is precisely the policy framework that must be superseded. • Spending on efforts to limit climate change and mitigate its effects should take precedence over military spending, especially on new, vast, and nonessential programs such as the upgrading of America’s nuclear forces, which are already much larger than nuclear deterrence requires. • International aid should be increased and redirected toward building resilience against climate change in endangered countries, especially, but not only, in Central America. • The United States should seek opportunities to work with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, to improve climate resilience in Asian and African countries. • The United States should maintain cooperation and trade with China in the area of renewable energy technology.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, National Security, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

12337. The Long Shadow: Immediate and Downstream Consequences of the Collapse of the USSR

Author:
George W. Breslauer
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
For most Russians, the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1991 was highly disorienting, if not traumatizing. They were sud- denly living in a new world. Many appreciated the newfound freedoms (of speech, association, religion, travel, and limited economic entrepreneurship) bequeathed by Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms. Still, however much they appreci- ated Gorbachev’s ending of the Cold War, Russians had to get used to a long list of shattering losses. Their country was no longer a distinct, multi-ethnic civilization or an acknowledged “great power” that could take pride in its history. The economy was collapsing amidst deepening shortages of consumer goods, while organized crime climbed above ground to demand protection money and collude with state and party officials to strip state assets.1 Abroad, the country was a lonely “has-been.” The states of Eastern Europe were no longer military allies or vassals, and Russia could no longer claim to be the virtuous leader of an anti-imperialist “world communist movement.” The USSR’s prior claims of being a “global power” were nullified by the parlous state of the Russian military and the country’s economic dependence on the West in the wake of the collapse. The only international status indicator that remained was the claim of being a nuclear “superpower.”
Topic:
History, Economy, Vladimir Putin, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia and Soviet Union

12338. 30 Years Since the Collapse of the Soviet Union: Democracy, Community, and Russia

Author:
Jerzy Buzek
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
I am a man of Solidarity—Solidarność. That is the name of the mass social movement that began in Poland in 1980 and brought freedom and democracy to not only my country but to all of Central and Eastern Europe. 1989 marked the end of the Eastern Bloc, and 1991 brought the collapse of the Soviet Union. Back then, there was hope it would indeed be “the end of history” and that there would be no going back to the past. The fall of the communist empire seemed to be the ultimate proof for us in Poland and Central Eastern Europe, but also for the entire world, that there was no more place for authoritarian regimes and that oppressive governments would perish sooner or later. Such was the experi- ence of generations that lived through the twentieth century. Three decades prior, the air we breathed was full of democracy; we needed that air once more.
Topic:
Communism, Democracy, Community, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia and Soviet Union

12339. The Power of Law and Justice: The Contribution of Latvia to the Global Development and Defense of Democracy

Author:
Egils Levits
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In May 1985, I wrote the following statement in a Canadian Latvian maga- zine: “In 5-, 20- or 50-years’ time the Soviet Union will be gone from Latvia.”1 Back then, I was just a young lawyer and political scientist—a researcher at the University of Kiel in Germany—having emigrated from the USSR-occupied Latvia 13 years earlier. I took an active part in the political life of Latvians in exile. Most believed that the bipolar world in which the nuclear superpowers of the West and East faced off would never change. So, why was I convinced that the Soviet Empire would collapse?
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, Law, Democracy, Justice, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Latvia and Baltic States

12340. The USSR and its Influence on Developments in the Right to Self- Determination

Author:
Robert McCorquodale
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
On a cold day in early March 1990, a phone call was made from the office of an economics minister in the Lithuanian Soviet Socialist Republic (Lithu- anian SSR) to a junior academic at the University of Cambridge. The question was asked: what laws should the government of Lithuanian SSR pass to declare itself independent from the Soviet Union? After a few days, the junior academic proposed a potential course of action to the Lithuanian caller. His proposal, combined with other, more expert opinions, was adopted by the government of the Lithuanian SSR as part of its declaration of (renewed) independence proclaimed on 11 March 1990.1
Topic:
Development, Independence, Post-Soviet Space, and Self-Determination
Political Geography:
Soviet Union

12341. Dynamics of Ukraine-Russia Relations

Author:
Roman Popadiuk
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The end of the Soviet Union seemed to augur an era of peace and coopera- tion: The Cold War was over, Europe was whole and free, and Russia—moving toward democracy and a free-market economy—held the promise of becoming a meaningful member of the global community. While much of the interna- tional community’s focus was on Russia, a key factor for realizing the West’s aspirations was dependent on the development of Ukraine and its relationship with Russia.
Topic:
Cold War, Bilateral Relations, Regional Integration, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Ukraine

12342. Hegemony Without Leadership: Russia’s Strategy in the Post-Soviet Space

Author:
Kataryna Wolczuk
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
During its relatively long existence, the Soviet Union was viewed with a mix of awe and fear: awe, owing to its immense capacity to play economic catch-up and fear, as to how that capacity would be used. It was only after the state’s collapse that its true nature was exposed. Despite its immense—though extremely costly in terms of human suf- fering—achievements, the USSR turned out to be a house of cards: the speed with which its institutions collapsed left behind 15 ostensibly modern, yet mis-developed, states. Not one of them possessed the functional capacity or the expertise to address the manifest legacies of Soviet mis-development, which included an autocratic political culture, maladapted institutions, pervasive cor- ruption, and swaths of socioeconomic deprivation.
Topic:
Hegemony, Leadership, Strategic Interests, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

12343. The Rise of Global Islamophobia and the Uyghur Genocide

Author:
Rushan Abbas
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The world is observing one of the worst humanitarian crises of this century: the Uyghur genocide, a colonial project that uses modern surveillance and widespread concentration camp apparatuses. At the heart of this genocide is a fundamental “otherization” of the Uyghur people that relies on Islamophobic policy and rhetoric to dehumanize the indigenous population of East Turkistan, known to China as Xinjiang. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) employs Islamophobia to over-police Muslim populations and curtail their civil liber- ties. Islamophobic rhetoric has also driven surges in hate crimes against Muslim communities. The United Nations notes that this trend continues today as Is- lamophobic incidents continue to rise globally.1 The genocide in East Turkistan is the defining human rights atrocity of the twenty-first century thus far. The CCP has remolded a global trend of Islamophobia to fit their own needs—a new chapter in a horrific history. Though the motivations of the Chinese state in East Turkistan are varied, economic gain, cultural unification, and national consolidation all rank highly. Specific policies targeting the practice of Islam have allowed for a brutal crackdown on cultural norms in the region. Meanwhile, a global trend toward Islamophobia has given the genocide some political cover in the global sphere.
Topic:
Genocide, Human Rights, Islamophobia, and Uyghurs
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Global Focus

12344. Islamophobia, Internationalism, and the Expanse Between

Author:
Khaled A. Beydoun
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
While delivering a lecture for the BBC, Edward Said maintained, “Speaking truth to power is no Panglossian idealism: it is carefully weighing the alterna- tives, picking the right one, and then intelligently representing it where it can do the most good and cause the right change.”1 This was 1993. A world not yet remade in the image of the war on terror and the new order it ushered in eight years later. Not even Said, the secular hu- manist whose Orientalism crystallized how the West mispresented Islam, could anticipate the coming urgency of his work and the weight of the words he spoke in London.2 Speaking at the doorstep of the imperial power that divided much of the world and entrenched the epistemological binary that oriented Islam as a civilizational other, Said’s spoken truth confronted power beyond domestic boundaries. He was a grassroots internationalist who challenged the violence wrought by transnational hegemonies, new and old. He saw beyond boundar- ies, political and existential, to link struggles and galvanize oppressed groups against hegemonic forces.
Topic:
Ideology, Islamophobia, Internationalism, and Edward Said
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12345. What Did 9/11 Mean for U.S. Media Coverage of Muslims and Islam?

Author:
A. Maurits van der Veen and Erik Bleich
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The twentieth anniversary of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks is an opportune moment to review the impact of those attacks on the U.S. media’s coverage of Muslims and Islam. In 2003, Vice President Dick Cheney famously argued that “[i]n a sense, 9/11 changed everything for us.”1 Evidence suggests that—within the U.S. government—“everything” includes how officials perceive Muslims; they became the target of wide, undifferentiated suspicion.2 The picture for the U.S. media is less clear-cut: some have argued that, as within the govern- ment, the attacks “thrust a certain type of Orientalist stereotype firmly back... into our news media, and into the mouths of politicians.”3 Meanwhile, others have found an “increase in sympathetic representations of Arab and Muslim Americans in the U.S. media after 9/11.”4 In our own research, we find two key changes after 9/11: an enduring rise in the number of newspaper articles about Muslims and Islam and a dramatic increase in the share of articles linking Muslims to terrorism or extremism.
Topic:
Islam, Media, News Analysis, and 9/11
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

12346. Securitization of Islam: The Lethal Combination of Threat and Identity Politics

Author:
Jocelyne Cesari
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The work of Samuel Huntington, first presented in a 1993 article in Foreign Affairs and subsequently elaborated upon in his 1996 book Clash of Civiliza- tions, has shaped the perception of the role of religion in general, and Islam in particular, in international conflicts.1 Huntington argued that Islam is uniquely incompatible with and antagonistic to the core values of the West, values which he defines as democracy and equality of individuals. Since Huntington first presented his work, much ink has been spilled by scholars attempting to invali- date his thesis. They show that civilizations are not homogenous or monolithic players in world politics with an inclination to “clash,” but rather that they consist of pluralistic, divergent, and convergent actors and of practices that are constantly evolving.2 Nonetheless, Huntington’s concept of the “Clash” has remained relevant in political discourse and in the media.
Topic:
Islam, Identity Politics, Securitization, and Threat Perception
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12347. Humanitarian Intervention and International Order: The Endless Wars Problem

Author:
Alex J. Bellamy
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Nowadays, few approve of humanitarian intervention, understood as the use of non-consensual force for the principal purpose of alleviating massive human suffering. Realists have always held that armed humanitarian crusades are an irrational, dangerous, and counterproductive extravagance likely to cause more problems than they solve, and at great expense.1 In a world full of autocracies and communities that define their values very differently from one another, re- alists argue, the forceful pursuit of “liberal hegemony” is likely to produce only “a perpetual state of war.”2 Critical thinkers have always suspected that a thinly veiled Western liberal imperialism lay behind what some described as the “new military humanism.”3 Its confidence in Western perfidiousness was briefly shaken by revelations of its misplaced faith in the Khmer Rouge and Slobodan Milošević but restored with gusto by the false pretexts for war with Iraq in 2003. English School pluralists value international order over individual rights;4 legal positivists lament the illegality of humanitarian intervention;5 post-colonial scholars, states, and other critical writers believe humanitarian intervention is the thin end of a neo-imperial wedge to erode hard-won self-determination and sovereignty;6 pacifists complain that humanitarian war is still, after all, war, and highlight the tragic irony of taking lives in order to save lives.7 More recently, Samuel Moyn situated humanitarian intervention within a broader politics by which “endless war” has been normalized as humane at the expense of war prevention.8 So intense is global antipathy that prominent advocates of the “responsibility to protect,” like Gareth Evans, carefully distinguish the principle they champion from humanitarian intervention. Samantha Power, meanwhile, was chastened by a painful experience in Libya into doubting whether humanitarian goals could be achieved by military force.9
Topic:
Human Rights, War, Humanitarian Intervention, and International Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12348. Armed Conflict and the Protection of Populations: The Debate over Humanitarian Intervention, Using Armed Force, and the Idea of Sovereignty

Author:
James Turner Johnson
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
This paper examines the development of the idea of humanitarian in- tervention and its implications for state sovereignty. It begins with a moral discussion of intervention from the rediscovery of the just war theory in the 1960s and 1970s, extends through public debates about intervention to protect fundamental human rights during armed conflicts over succeed- ing decades, and includes the production of the global commitment of the “Responsibility to Protect” and its treatment in the Outcome document of the 2005 UN World Summit. The article notes that two competing ideas of sovereignty have been recurrent themes in humanitarian intervention debates. One idea, expressed in Article 2 of the UN Charter, defines sovereignty in terms of the inviolability of state territory. The other, surfacing in human rights law and in moral debates in the public sphere, defines sovereignty in terms of the responsibility of states and the world order to protect funda- mental human rights domestically and internationally. This paper identifies the deep historical roots of both conceptions and their mutual, but different, connections to the idea of natural law, as well as their different implications regarding the roles of states, regional organizations, and the UN. It concludes by noting that while the 2005 Summit reaffirmed the former conception of sovereignty, it also acknowledged the latter as a domestic obligation of states, though one in which the international community also has an interest.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Humanitarian Intervention, Armed Conflict, and Protection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12349. The Uyghur Genocide and International Policy Response

Author:
Omer Kanat
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The Chinese government’s treatment of the Uyghurs has gone from a relatively obscure issue in the international press to a central one. It has become the subject of discussion and policymaking in the halls of governments around the world and has gained widespread awareness among the general public. This is because Uyghurs are subject to some of the worst human rights abuses in the world; in many respects, their treatment meets the accepted definition of geno- cide. The fact that these abuses are being perpetrated in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), a nation widely expected to have a major role in shaping the twenty-first century, has contributed to the urgency of the issue. The Uyghur community has welcomed the long overdue response from some governments. An increasing number of parliaments have condemned the Chinese government’s actions as genocide, and some are developing legislation aimed at addressing issues such as forced labor in the supply chain and transnational repression di- rected at Uyghurs living abroad. Although the Chinese government denounces these as attempts to meddle in their internal affairs, the repression of Uyghurs has a global dimension that requires a global response.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Genocide, Human Rights, and Uyghurs
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Global Focus

12350. Moral Imperatives and Legal Realities: The Perennial Conundrum of Humanitarian Intervention

Author:
Chris O'Meara
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Article 1 of the UN Charter embodies a well-known tension that exists in international law. On the one hand, it sets out perhaps the most fundamental purpose of the UN: the maintenance of international peace and security. This principle underpins the operation of the post-World War II rules-based inter- national order. It is reflected in Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which prohibits the “threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political indepen- dence of any state.”1 Such prohibition, while routinely flouted by states, stands as an intransgressible rule of international law.2 On the other hand, Article 1 establishes what appears to be an equally foundational principle: promoting and encouraging respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms. Indeed, the burgeoning body of international human rights law that has arisen since the signing of the Charter has increasingly placed human rights and human security at the center of international concern.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Humanitarian Intervention, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12351. Coups, Conflicts, and COVID-19 in Myanmar: Humanitarian Intervention and Responsibility to Protect in Intractable Crises

Author:
Adam Simpson
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Myanmar is a complex country with an unlucky history that includes op- pressive British colonization, Japanese invasion during World War II followed by independence, the world’s longest-running civil wars, and disastrous military coups. The coup of 1962 resulted in half a century of authoritarian military rule.1 The most recent coup on 1 February 2021 reversed a decade of political and economic reforms, resulted in crimes against humanity, and removed any glimmer of hope for Myanmar’s future.2 The terrifying trauma of a third wave of COVID-19 in mid-2021, dominated by the Delta variant, left much of the country sick and gasping for breath.3
Topic:
Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, Crisis Management, Coup, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

12352. Bolstering Vaccine Manufacturing Capacity in Africa: A move towards self-sufficiency

Author:
Agnes Binagwaho, Praise Mutesi, and Kedest Mathewos
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Patterns of marginalization and exclusion of the vulnerable in medicine and public health have become the norm. The vulnerable, especially on the African continent, have been left out of the distribution of life-saving medical and public health interventions. When included, they have always been last in line to receive such interventions. This inequity prevents Africa from stopping the spread of diseases, resulting in preventable deaths. The repercussions of this inequitable distribution are magnified in countries whose health systems have been weakened by centuries of colonization and unfair international policies such as the structural adjustment programs that hollowed out public investment in health systems.1
Topic:
Manufacturing, Public Health, Vaccine, Marginalization, and Self-Sufficiency
Political Geography:
Africa

12353. Northern Ireland’s 100th Birthday

Author:
Brendan O'Leary
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
On 23 December 2020, Northern Ireland turned one hundred years old— that is, if its birthday is dated by the ratification of the Government of Ireland Act by King George V. Officially titled “An Act for the better Government of Ireland,” it became known to Irish nationalists and republicans as the partition act.1 The U.K. Parliament passed the act without a single vote in its favor from a member of Parliament elected in Ireland. The proposed British “solution” to Ireland’s right to self-determination was the invention of two Irelands, “Northern Ireland” and “Southern Ireland,” each scheduled to be a devolved government within the Union of Great Britain and Ireland. The proposal was enacted during what we Irish call the “War of Independence.”2
Topic:
Politics, History, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Europe and North Ireland

12354. An Unfinished Revolution: The Trajectory of Thailand’s Current Protests

Author:
Pavin Chachavalpongpun
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
This essay investigates the ongoing protests demanding monarchical reform in Thailand. Since July 2020, protestors have strived to place constraints on the monarchy back into the constitution in response to the increasingly unrestrained power of King Maha Vajiralongkorn.1 As part of this effort, protesters proposed a crucial ten-point demand for immediate reform. The demonstrations were driven by several factors, including the generational shift, the evolution of social media, and the interconnectedness with other movements in the region.2 After months of protests, however, Vajiralongkorn has continued to ignore the popular call for change. Instead, he has undermined protests through violent crackdowns, legal measures, and online censorship. The crown is now on the defensive.3 It has become the battle of the century—the outcome of which may take Thailand back to the absolute monarchy of the past or toward a modern republic. The concept of a constitutional monarchy in Thailand has remained elusive since its inception in 1932. Today, such an arrangement is intolerable to many Thais.
Topic:
Social Movement, Reform, Protests, and Monarchy
Political Geography:
Thailand and Southeast Asia

12355. The Rise and Fall of Golden Dawn: Organized Racism Suffered a Great Defeat in Greece—But the Fight is Far from Over

Author:
Eleni Takou
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Golden Dawn was already a violent, marginal, neo-Nazi group in the 1980s. But how did it become a regulator of Greece’s political life? The economic crisis that plagued Greek society in 2010, the lack of a consistent migration policy, as well as the state’s (and other institutional actors’) reluctance to acknowledge its extreme far-right past and address xenophobia and racist crime, led to the group’s consolidation. In 2010, Golden Dawn gained a seat on the Athens municipal council. In the 2012 general election, it took almost 7 percent of the vote, electing 21 MPs.1 Many mark this as the starting point of Golden Dawn’s presence in Greece; however, this approach alone leads to a narrow and historically inac- curate interpretation of extremist far-right violence in Greece.
Topic:
Elections, Far Right, Racism, and Golden Dawn
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

12356. Contemporary Challenges to Global Democracy

Author:
Erica Frantz
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Today’s democracies are under threat. According to the watchdog organiza- tion Freedom House, each year of the past decade has seen a decline in global democracy.1 Importantly, many of these declines have occurred in wealthier and more established democracies, which scholars have typically considered resistant to democratic backsliding. In some instances, these erosions have left democracies weakened, such as in India and the United States; however, in other instances, they have led to complete democratic collapse and the emergence of authoritarianism, such as in Turkey and Serbia.
Topic:
Governance, Democracy, Dictatorship, Political Crisis, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12357. Are European Migration Policies Racist?

Author:
Pastore Ferruccio
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Are European migration policies racist? In times of spreading politiciza- tion of any migration-related issue, such a question may sound rhetorical and partisan. It is not; or at least, not necessarily. Millions of actual and potential migrants and a growing number of decision-makers in migrant-sending countries are earnestly asking this question or close variants of it. If only for this reason, this question becomes a relevant factor in international relations and, as such, it requires evidence-based answers. To answer this question, some historical background is needed. This is why I will start with a brief appraisal of the transition from the colonial to the post- colonial migration regimes of European countries. In particular, I will consider migration policies adopted toward Africa, which forms the key empirical case for my investigation.
Topic:
Migration, History, Colonialism, and Racism
Political Geography:
Europe

12358. Racism, a Challenge For An Increasingly Global China: Confronting a Problem the PRC Does Not Know it Has

Author:
Bonnie Girard
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
As I lay on a gurney in an examining room in Peking Union Medical College Hospital (Xiehe Yiyuan) in central Beijing—pleading with the doctor to give me something, anything for the pain coursing through my head—I could not help but wonder why it was taking so long for hospital staff to give me relief. The diagnosis could come later, I thought, but right now I want either morphine or a gun. The year was 1990. Martial law imposed on Beijing during the aftermath of the massacre that occurred as the culmination of the Tiananmen Square demon- strations of 1989, had only just been lifted five months earlier. The city remained on edge. We were quickly approaching the 1 October Chinese National Day holiday, which would typically celebrate the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) with fanfare and tens of thousands of people in Tiananmen Square itself. The tanks sent to break up the student protests months earlier had rolled by on East Chang’an Avenue only 800 meters away; doctors and nurses in Peking Union had treated survivors and dealt with the dead.
Topic:
Inequality, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Racism
Political Geography:
China and Asia

12359. Frontiers and Borders: The Internet and the Amplification of Illiberalism

Author:
Edward Greenspon
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In March 1985, on winter break from graduate studies in Britain, I visited my first illiberal and non-democratic country. It was a fortuitous moment to be dropping in on the mothership of the alternative system, the Soviet Union, that had provided decades of dystopian fodder for the likes of Orwell, Solzhenitsyn, Koestler, and Kundera. Mikhail Gorbachev had been named General Secretary of the Communist Party two weeks earlier. His photo, with the famous red wine birthmark on his forehead, adorned the cover of the Time magazine I picked up at Heathrow airport. Although some of our reading material was confiscated on arrival, the Gorby cover slipped through. A couple of evenings in, a group of us gathered outside Leningrad’s Winter Palace, once the home of the czars and a key venue in the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. We met three young Russians. It was my birthday. They invited us back to their apartment to listen to “underground” music, drink vodka, and talk.
Topic:
Internet, Borders, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12360. Absolutely Corrupted: The Rise of an Illiberal System and The Future of Hungarian Democracy

Author:
Anna Júlia Donáth
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
“Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”1 Lord John Dalberg-Acton’s words should not be relevant in the era of modern democracy, when political power is distributed and filtered through the institu- tions of checks and balances. Absolute power should simply be off the table. Yet, as shown by the events unfolding in Hungary in the last decade, democratic institutions can be transformed into mere façades that obscure the grim reality of unchecked power in the hands of one person. In the case of Hungary, this man is Viktor Orbán, the leader of Hungary’s dominant right-wing party.
Topic:
Corruption, Democracy, Far Right, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

12361. Academic Freedom: A Test and a Tool for Illiberalism, Neoliberalism, and Liberal Democracy

Author:
András L. Pap
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Using the case study of Hungary, this article investigates the status and role of academic freedom in (neo)liberal democracies and illiberal regimes. Here, academic freedom is gauged in three dimensions: teaching, research, and publishing (cultivated at research institutes and universities). The inquiry begins with an overview of academic freedom under Viktor Orbán’s Hungary. This case study provides a snapshot of how academic freedom can be curtailed in a hybrid illiberal regime. The article’s second half provides an assessment of the three contextual dimensions through which the case study may be relevant—particularly for a social science and international affairs audience. The first context shows how the second phase of emerging authoritarian regimes target cultural life as a soft tool to cement and solidify illiberalism once the capture of constitutional institu- tions has been accomplished. The second context refers to the role and ambition of international instruments to sustain autocracies in the making. The case of the Hungarian government’s entanglement with the European Union (EU), Council of Europe’s Venice Commission, and the European Court of Human Rights documents the institutional inability of multilevel constitutional organs to administer ex-post restorative constitutional justice. It also points to the ten- dency of these organs to experiment with “Al Capone”-like judicial strategies in referring to the breach of equal treatment and General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) commitments to disguise inadequate rule of law shortcomings.
Topic:
Democracy, Neoliberalism, Illiberalism, and Academic Freedom
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

12362. The Two Sources of the Illiberal Turn in Brazil

Author:
Afonso de Albuquerque
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In the early 2010s, the consolidation of Brazilian democracy seemed a well- established fact. Although far from perfect, the prospects for Brazil’s future looked bright. The economy was booming, and Brazil appeared to be on the verge of assuming a more prominent role in international politics. A few years later, Brazil’s fortune has reversed dramatically. In 2018, far-right politician Jair Bolsonaro won the Brazilian presidential election. Nostalgic for the military dictatorship that governed the country from 1964 to 1985, Bolsonaro has cham- pioned an anti-human rights agenda. Throughout his tenure, he has minimized the COVID-19 health crisis,1 denied the existence of climate change, and used his platform to spread disinformation.2 He often attacks the National Congress, Supreme Court, and press. Bolsonaro has even threatened these entities, argu- ing he has the Armed Forces and the people on his side. How did this happen?
Topic:
Democracy, Institutions, Jair Bolsonaro, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

12363. Iraqi Police: A Hard Place Between State and Society

Author:
Afzal Ashraf
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Experts suggest that a police force should closely reflect its state’s constitution and its societal fabric.1 It follows, therefore, that the design of a new policing system or the reform of an old one will be affected by the ideas and the realities of power within the state and by the nature of its society. Nowhere are these principles more visible than in the reconstruction of a post–conflict country. The underlying assumption in such situations is that police reform is a fundamental element of conflict management because a police force, supported by society, can mitigate insecurity and play a significant part in the economic and political development of a country.2 This assumption has one fundamental flaw. For a police force to help deliver security and development in a post–conflict situation, there should exist at least a modicum of security and economic and political development. This “chicken and egg” situation is most starkly evident in the attempts to reform the police service following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. The security sector reform programs in Iraq, of which police reform is a component, not only challenge some assumptions upon which international development is based, but also provide potential insights into the relationship between the police, power, economic security, and society in general. These relationships could also apply to developed countries as their political and eco- nomic systems are challenged or changed by global events.
Topic:
Development, State, Police, Society, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

12364. To Be Served and Protected: Israeli Arab Citizens and the Police

Author:
Guy Ben-Porat
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In January 2021, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu paid a visit to Umm al-Fahm, an Arab city in the north of Israel. The visit, officially celebrating the country’s millionth COVID-19 vaccine recipient, also had a political purpose: winning the forthcoming elections in March 2021. For the first time, Netanyahu and the Likud party hoped to gain support from Israel’s Arab citizens. Among Netanyahu’s promises of economic betterment was a commitment to fight ris- ing crime and violence in Arab cities. He pledged “a comprehensive plan” with the primary goal of constructing more police stations “because a dense network of police stations creates more security.” Going further, he added that he “also want[ed] more intelligence, more officers, and more means [of enforcement].” Netanyahu declared himself “first and foremost committed to the rule of law and safety for citizens.”1
Topic:
Human Rights, Inequality, Citizenship, Rule of Law, and Police
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

12365. The National Police Service and Nigeria’s Woes

Author:
John Campbell
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In October 2020, a viral video showed an officer from the Special Anti- Robbery Squad (SARS), a notoriously brutal Nigerian police unit, killing an unarmed civilian. Following credible reports by human rights organizations about a string of extrajudicial killings by police, this video sparked spontaneous demonstrations in Lagos. The video was widely circulated and the demonstrations spread to other cities. These protests reached a nadir when the police killed at least 12 unarmed demonstrators at the Lekki Toll Gate in Lagos on 20 October; human rights groups maintain that the number killed was far greater.1
Topic:
Human Rights, Governance, Police, and Police Brutality
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

12366. Policing and Violence: The Less Visible Harms of Policing Practices

Author:
Cecilia Menjívar
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In recent years, pervasive physical violence perpetrated by police forces across the world has come to light. From São Paulo to Cape Town, from Hong Kong to every major U.S. city, the public has witnessed—mostly through media images—policing through the use of excessive force, such as beatings, assaults, false arrests, verbal abuse, and terrorization. These acts shock us and may even make us feel unsafe. However, they are not directed toward all groups equally. The experiences of Black people fighting for justice in the United States; poor residents protesting extreme social inequality in Ecuador and Chile; Muslims in India facing violence for their religious beliefs; women in Mexico City and Santiago protesting gender-based violence; and anti-government protesters in Hong Kong demonstrate a clear pattern: vulnerable groups who oppose the state or its policies, or who seek to redress past state violence, are the primary targets of police violence.
Topic:
Human Rights, Inequality, Violence, Police, and Police Brutality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12367. Bolstering Surveillance for a Pandemic

Author:
Jennifer Nuzzo
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the world’s vulnerabilities to pandemics, and the inadequacies of existing surveillance infrastructure and data to help us respond to them. At both the national and global level, insufficient abilities to rapidly identify and characterize the emergence of new pathogens; adequately diagnose and enumerate infected individuals; analyze trends in CO- VID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths; evaluate the impact of public health interventions; track essential supplies; and monitor COVID-19’s development have hindered global effectiveness in stopping its spread. Historically, the answers to these questions have been sought from human clinical and public health sources, such as patients’ diagnostic test results and demographic information. However, as COVID-19 has demonstrated, the human health data available are often insufficient, and the management and response to a complex pandemic also requires data from other sectors, such as businesses, news, and social media; animal health and environmental organizations; and defense, law enforcement, and intelligence. These challenges are not unique to the COVID-19 pandemic and will likely be encountered again in the future unless national governments and international agencies act to improve surveillance capabilities.
Topic:
National Security, Infrastructure, Surveillance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12368. When Local Politics Go Global: How Erdoğan’s Dominance At Home Allowed Him To Reshape Turkey’s Neighborhood

Author:
Ayla Jean Yackley
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
At a lavish ceremony last year commemorating a millennium-old Turk- ish victory over Byzantine forces, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivered a warning to his adversaries: heed the lesson of the medieval battle or risk devas- tation for challenging Turkey. Turkey had recently dispatched warships to hunt for hydrocarbons in internationally recognized Greek waters.1 The maneuver thrust the two NATO members into a dangerous confrontation that unnerved both the European Union and the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

12369. German Economy Winter 2021: Recovery temporarily on hold

Author:
Martin Ademmer, Dominik Groll, Nils Jannsen, Saskia Meuchelbock, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Nils Sonnenberg, and Stefan Kooths
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The recovery of the German economy is interrupted once again. In the winter, the new Covid-19 wave will particularly hit activity in contact-intensive service sectors as in previous waves. As a result, there will be a setback in private consumer spending and probably also small declines in GDP. To the extent that the burdens of the pandemic ease in the spring, a strong recovery will set in, similar to the pattern observed this year. Economic momentum will likely be particularly high as the supply bottlenecks, which are massively dampening industrial production in this year, are expected to ease. Overall, the renewed slowdown in the recovery process caused by the pandemic will probably be larger than we had expected in our autumn economic outlook. However, the setback will be not as severe as last winter. In 2022, GDP will probably increase by 4 percent and thus less strongly than we had expected three months ago (5.1 percent). For 2023, we revise GDP growth upwards to 3.3 percent (autumn outlook: 2.3 percent). This year, GDP will increase by 2.6 percent. Inflation will remain high for the time being, also because supply bottlenecks continue to increase manufacturing costs and tighten the supply of consumer goods. At the same time, private households have accumulated additional savings of around 200 billion euros since the beginning of the pandemic and therefore have a rather high willingness to pay. Consumer price inflation will probably be around 3 percent both this and next year, before easing again in 2023. The public budget deficit will fall noticeably from 3.8 percent in relation to GDP in 2021 to 1.8 percent in 2022 due to the reduced burden of the pandemic. However, the budgets are still expected to close with a deficit of 1.4 percent in 2023.
Topic:
Economics, GDP, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

12370. World Economy Autumn 2021: Stumbling blocks on the road to recovery

Author:
Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Stefan Kooths, and Philipp Hauber
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The global recovery has lost momentum in the first half of 2021 amid new surges of Covid-19 cases and supply chain disruptions. We still expect world production to rebound strongly after the historic collapse in the previous year but we have lowered our forecast for global GDP growth from 6.7 percent to 5.9 percent. At the same time we are now slightly more upbeat for the coming year with global production expected to grow by 5 percent (June forecast: 4.8 percent). With the economy gradually slowing towards the end of the forecast horizon, we expect still relatively strong annual growth of 3.8 percent in 2023. Consumer price inflation has accelerated markedly over the course of this year, largely due to temporary factors. Our baseline forecast expects price pressures to ease in the coming year and monetary policy to remain accommodative. There are, however, upside risks to inflation as large extra savings amassed by private households in many countries over the past year could fuel a sustained rise in prices. In that case, central banks could tighten policy considerably with negative consequences for the growth outlook.
Topic:
Economics, GDP, Inflation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12371. Post-Corona-Boom Underway

Author:
Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths, and Ulrich Stolzenburg
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The global economy remained on track in the first months of 2021, despite surging covid-19 infections and renewed containment measures in many countries. The impact of the pandemic was largely confined to the service sectors. Meanwhile, the pronounced upturn in industrial production and global trade continued until spring, but has started to falter as a result of supply bottlenecks and logistical problems. The tensions in the global economic fabric are reflected not least in sharp price increases for raw materials, intermediate goods and transportation services, which have already contributed to a noticeable rise in consumer prices. Continued highly expansionary monetary policy and considerable fiscal policy stimulus, notably in the United States, but also in the euro zone, are fuelling economic activity this year and next. We expect global output (measured on a purchasing power parity basis) to increase by 6.7 percent in 2021 and by 4.8 percent in 2022, which is still substantially above medium-term trend growth. In view of the high economic momentum and higher inflation risks, we expect the Federal Reserve to start tightening earlier than previously expected. This is associated with the risk of a significant deterioration in financing conditions going forward, particularly for some emerging economies
Topic:
Economics, Economic Growth, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12372. Gender and Extremism in Ethiopia

Author:
Hilina Berhanu Degefa
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
This paper endeavored to provide a gender analysis on the role of women in violent extremism (VE) and government-led efforts on Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (P/CVE) in Ethiopia. It draws its findings and recommendations from three main research methods: a literature review, observation, and one-on-one semi-structured interviews with actors involved in VE and P/CVE efforts across six Regional States in Ethiopia. The study firstly examines the role of women in extremism in Ethiopia, emphasising how and why women are involved in VE, including the gendered nature of association with VE groups. Among those that have been researched are the hardening of in-group identity, sense of community and seeking recognition, romanticism and fascination with a charismatic leader, as well as a sense of victimhood as a result of government action or inaction, including gender-specific violations. All are contributing factors; mostly compounded and cumulatively present in individual cases. Secondly, the study engages with the current standing P/CVE efforts led by the government, analysing the types of womanhood that the state mobilises and produces in the name of, and as part of, P/CVE efforts. While the research has been less conclusive in establishing a commonly agreed-upon definition of VE from respondents, it recommends the need for intersectionality-informed gender analysis in understanding women’s participation in VE as well as in the designing and implementation of P/CVE measures
Topic:
Governance, Women, Leadership, Gender Based Violence, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

12373. Inter-Communal Tensions, Violence and Conflicts in the Time of a Pandemic in Ethiopia

Author:
Yihenew Alemu Tesfaye, Fasika Gedif, Kedir Jemal, and Meseret Asefa
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
The ongoing conflict in northern Ethiopia−in the Tigray region and adjacent Amhara and Afar zones−has controlled the last twelve months discussions and analyses of Ethiopian politics. The magnitude of the conflict, associated humanitarian crisis, and the news about the crisis (sometimes with deliberate circulations of misinformation) have made this the most significant political challenge of the nation since the 1998 Ethio-Eritrea war. However, recent political developments in Ethiopia feed into each other, and it remains imperative to keep examining continued inter-communal tensions, violence and conflicts in Ethiopia and analysing the ramification of the Covid-19 pandemic on outstanding and novel inter-communal tensions and conflicts in the country. As this report shows, political developments are, directly or indirectly, linked with the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, which has escalated hitherto mostly localised inter-communal tensions and fueled armed conflicts in Ethiopia. The primary aim of this study is to investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Ethiopia’s political situation and inter-communal tensions, violence, and extremism. By taking cases from the Metekel zone in Benishangul-Gumuz region, from the central and west Gondar zone (largely the Chilga district) in the Amhara region, and the east Hararghe zone in the Oromia region, this report discusses what occurred during incidents since the onset of the pandemic, how sources attribute the causes of these incidents, and how the narratives of sources, directly or indirectly, implicate the pandemic in triggering or aggravating these incidents.
Topic:
Conflict, Violence, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Communal Areas
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

12374. Pathways for Reconciliation in Yemen

Author:
European Institute of Peace
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
The Pathways for Reconciliation in Yemen project* was developed under the European Institute of Peace’s Conflict Justice and Reconciliation programme. It is the largest effort in recent history and ongoing conflict to engage members of society to consider their needs, perspectives and rights in the search for lasting peace. This report covers highlights from consultations with nearly 16,000 people in nine governorates in Yemen between October 2020 and October 2021. The process reflects a commitment that peace must be shaped by genuine participatory engagement with society beyond those actively engaging in hostilities or involved with the conflict parties. The likelihood of obtaining a legitimate and sustainable settlement significantly depends on how inclusive the process is and the extent to which it engages beyond elite voices of the powerful. Yemen benefitted from the 2013–2014 National Dialogue Conference (NDC). While some of the ideas and conclusions it reached remain relevant, the conditions in the country are now significantly worse. Although the NDC was innovative and inspirational, its model can be improved upon to promote a more inclusive process that helps facilitate more legitimate outcomes. The process of engagement is an essential aspect of sustainable peacebuilding. It should not be seen as a ‘soft’ option or an ornament to ‘serious’ talks with conflict parties. Sustainable peace ultimately requires a critical mass of society to buy into any settlement. To do so, they must believe it represents an improvement to the status quo, and that it is in their interest to stick with it and to withhold support from potential spoilers. The more seriously the settlement’s creation takes into account the views of the wider society, the greater the chances of conferring legitimacy and obtaining buy-in. The Pathways to Reconciliation initiative identifies the priorities and concerns of ordinary citizens. While some of the findings may not surprise, this does not limit their usefulness. Citizens’ genuine engagement in the initial steps of this process is of the utmost importance. A striking proportion of those consulted (78 per cent) did not support any political party; they consider themselves unrepresented, and with no appropriate avenues in which to express their needs and aims.
Topic:
Peace, Justice, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

12375. Scenarios for an impact assessment of global bioeconomy strategies: results from a co-design process

Author:
Ruth Delzeit, Tobias Heimann, Franziska Schunemann, and Mareike Soder
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The replacement of fossil resources with renewable biomass in a bioeconomy is seen as a major contribution to climate change mitigation. This transformation will affect all members of society, making it crucial to consider the views of different stakeholders to ensure a socially acceptable transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy. To explore potential outcomes of bioeconomy strategies assuming different future pathways, a scenario analysis is a tool to inform decision-makers about policy impacts and trade-offs. The inter- and transdisciplinary research project “BioNex – The future of the biomass nexus” is the first project to develop bioeconomy scenarios together with stakeholders from politics, industry, and civil society in an iterative co-design process. As a result, three storylines describing diverging potential global futures are developed and quantified: Towards sustainability, business as usual, and towards resource depletion. The futures are driven by different assumptions on climate policy, cropland expansion, productivity growth in agriculture, prices of fossil energy, and consumption behaviour. Additionally, in the co-design process, three bioeconomy policies are developed: policy as usual, stronger development of the bioeconomy, and no policies. Besides presenting the results of the stakeholder workshops, this paper evaluates the strengths and shortcomings of a stakeholder approach in terms of policy-oriented research. According to the experience made within this study, it provides valuable insights for researchers and funding authorities they can use to optimise the employment of stakeholder-based research approaches.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Economy, Biology, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12376. DART-BIO: A technical description

Author:
Ruth Delzeit, Tobias Heimann, Franziska Schunemann, and Mareike Soder
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The goal of this technical paper is to present in a transparent way a detailed description of the DART-BIO model – the bioeconomy and land use version of the DART model. Key feature of the DART-BIO model is the explicit representation of the vegetable oil industry and the biofuel sector. The paper describes the construction and aggregation of the database used for the DART-BIO model. Further the theoretical structure of the model is elaborated. Thereby, crucial assumptions, elasticities and parameters embedded in the model are presented.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Biology, and Farming
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12377. Employment effects of R&D and innovation: Evidence from small and medium-sized firms in emerging markets

Author:
Rajeev K. Goel and Michael Nelson
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper studies the impact of research and development (R&D) and innovation on employment growth, focusing on small and medium-sized firms. Employment effects of R&D and innovation are unclear a priori as process innovation may be labor-saving or labor might have complementarities with other inputs. Employing firm-level data from 125 nations, results show that both R&D and innovation increased employment growth, suggesting that innovation was either capital-saving or labor had strong complementarities with other inputs. Upon splitting the sample into growing and contracting firms showed that contracting firms benefit from innovation but not from R&D. In other findings, sole proprietorships, larger firms, firms with relatively more experienced managers, firms with females as top managers, and firms facing the threat of informal competition had lower employment growth, while foreign-owned and government-owned enterprises have positive influences on employment growth. Finally, employment growth in shrinking firms was boosted in nations with greater economic freedom, but this growth is undermined by informal sector competition.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Research, Innovation, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12378. Factors facilitating the inventing academics’ transition from nascent entrepreneurs to business owners

Author:
João Ricardo Faria and Rajeev K. Goel
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Considering the sequential nature of nascent entrepreneurship and business ownership, this paper examines the propensities of academic entrepreneurs to be business owners. A theoretical model sets up the empirical analysis based on survey data from a large German public research institute. Traditionally, scientists and entrepreneurs have been seen to occupy opposite ends of a spectrum in terms of their role in innovation. In academic entrepreneurship the two combine on a number of activities. In order to understand the ways in which academic inventors move from pure patenting to nascent entrepreneurship to business ownership and connect seemingly divergent activities. We model their behavior by looking at various factors among German scientists. Academic inventors present a critical case since science and entrepreneurship are often seen as radically different, not the least in terms of knowledge production. By bringing the analysis from the level of social behavior and roles to the level of knowledge production, we can better address questions such as: How is knowledge in the interfaces of epistemic communities produced? How can such knowledge be organized and sustained? and How can relations between individuals on ‘opposing sides’ be constructively managed? The empirical results show that scientists’ positive attitudes towards commercialization of results consistently contribute to tendencies towards academic entrepreneurship; however, the academic discipline and risk aversion did not have a statistically significant impact. Having a doctoral degree lowered the propensities toward nascent entrepreneurship, but had the opposite effect on business ownership. Finally, age and experience made business ownership more likely. The results of this study would contribute to a more general theory of how scientists can combine their commercial and scientific activities in spite of an alleged divergence.
Topic:
Entrepreneurship, Business, Risk, and Academia
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12379. Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century

Author:
Kris James Mitchener and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
How will sovereign debt markets evolve in the 21st century? We survey how the literature has responded to the eurozone debt crisis, placing “lessons learned” in historical perspective. The crisis featured: (i) the return of debt problems to advanced economies; (ii) a bank-sovereign “doom-loop” and the propagation of sovereign risk to households and firms; (iii) roll-over problems and self-fulfilling crisis dynamics; (iv) severe debt distress without outright sovereign defaults; (v) large-scale sovereign bailouts from abroad; and (vi) creditor threats to litigate and hold out in a debt restructuring. Many of these characteristics were already present in historical debt crises and are likely to remain relevant in the future. Looking forward, our survey points to a growing role of sovereign-bank linkages, legal risks, domestic debt and default, and of official creditors, due to new lenders such as China as well as the increasing dominance of central banks in global debt markets. Questions of debt sustainability and default will remain acute in both developing and advanced economies.
Topic:
Debt, Finance, Banking, and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12380. Kind or contented? An investigation of the gift exchange hypothesis in a natural field experiment in Colombia

Author:
Francesco Bogliacino, Gianluca Grimalda, and David Pipke
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The gift exchange hypothesis postulates that workers reciprocate above market-clearing wages with above-minimum effort. This hypothesis has received mixed support in dyadic employer-worker relationships. We present a field-experimental test to assess this hypothesis in the context of a triadic relationship in which only one out of two workers receives a pay increase. We conjecture that inequality aversion motivations may thwart positive reciprocity motivations and analyze the interaction between such motivations theoretically. Across three treatments, the pay increase is justified to workers based on either relative merit or relative need or was arbitrary as no justification was offered. Two conditions in which either none or both workers receive a bonus serve as the reference. In contrast to the gift exchange hypothesis, we find that pay increases lead to a decrease in productivity. Such a decrease is most sizable in the condition where both workers receive the bonus. A post-diction of this result is that workers interpret the monetary bonus as a signal of the employer’s contentment with their effort, which makes them feel entitled to reduce their effort. In other treatments, receiving the pay increase while the coworker does not has a positive effect on productivity, especially when the pay increase is based on merit. This result is consistent with statusseeking preferences rather than aversion against advantageous inequality. Conversely, not receiving the pay increase while the coworker does, leads to lower productivity, especially when the pay increase is assigned based on relative needs.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Labor Policies, and Wealth
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

12381. Green gifts from abroad? FDI and firms' green management

Author:
Peter Kannen, Finn Ole Semrau, and Frauke Steglich
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Improvements of firms' environmental performance crucially determine the speed of a country's green economic transformation. In this paper, we investigate whether firms with foreign ownership are more likely to adopt 'green' management practices, which determine the capability to monitor and improve a firm's impact on the environment. By using multi-country firm-level data, we show that foreign ownership increases the likelihood of implementing green management practices. Considering country heterogeneity, we reveal that only firms based in more developed economies and in countries with better environmental performance benefit from foreign direct investment, while this is not the case for firms based in less developed economies or countries with weak environmental performance. In addition, we find that the effect is more robust for manufacturing sector firms than for service sector firms. Overall, our results suggest that foreign ownership can contribute towards a country's green economic transformation.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Environment, Green Technology, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12382. The Need for Local Governance of Global Commons: The Example of Blue Carbon Ecosystems

Author:
Christine Merk, Jonas Grunau, Marie-Catherine Riekhof, and Wilfried Rickels
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
To limit global warming to 1.5°C, vast amounts of CO2 will have to be removed from the atmosphere via Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). Enhancing the CO2 sequestration of ecosystems will require not just one approach but a portfolio of CDR options, including so‐called nature‐based approaches alongside CDR options that are perceived as more technical. Creating a CDR “supply curve” would however imply that all carbon removals are considered to be perfect substitutes. The various co‐benefits of nature‐based CDR approaches militate against this. We discuss this aspect of nature‐based solutions in connection with the enhancement of blue carbon ecosystems (BCE) such as mangrove or seagrass habitats. Enhancing BCEs can indeed contribute to CO2 sequestration, but the value of their carbon storage is low compared to the overall contribution of their ecosystem services to wealth. Furthermore, their property rights are often unclear, i.e. not comprehensively defined or not enforced. Hence, payment schemes that only compensate BCE carbon sequestration could create tradeoffs at the expense of other important, often local, ecosystem services and might not result in socially optimal outcomes. Accordingly, one chance for preserving and restoring BCEs lies in the consideration of all services in potential compensation schemes for local communities. Also, local contexts, management structures, and benefit‐sharing rules are crucial factors to be considered when setting up international payment schemes to support the use of BCEs and other nature‐ or ecosystem‐based CDR. However, regarding these options as the only hope of achieving more CDR will very probably not bring about the desired outcome, either for climate mitigation or for ecosystem preservation. Unhalted degradation, in turn, will make matters worse due to the large amounts of stored carbon that would be released. Hence, countries committed to climate mitigation in line with the Paris targets should not hide behind vague pledges to enhance natural sinks for removing atmospheric CO2 but commit to scaling up engineered CDR.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, Governance, Global Warming, and Local
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12383. Endogenous Growth, Skill Obsolescence and Optimal Monetary Policy

Author:
Wolfgang Lechthaler and Mewael F. Tesfaselassie
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
We analyze Ramsey optimal monetary policy in a New-Keynesian model with search and matching frictions featuring (i) training costs due to skill loss from long-term unemployment and (ii) endogenous growth through learning-by-doing externalities. In a simplified two-period version of the model, the competitive equilibrium is shown to be inefficient due to two externalities: i) firms do not internalize the effects that hiring has on labor productivity through learning-by-doing; ii) firms do not fully internalize the effects that hiring has on future training costs. These externalities lead to inefficient fluctuations, thereby justifying deviations from price stability in response to productivity shocks. In a calibrated version of the full model we show significant deviations from price stability and significant differences between optimal monetary policy and monetary policy that follows a Taylor rule.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Economic Theory, Keynes, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12384. Accounting for terrestrial and marine carbon sink enhancement

Author:
Marius Paschen, Wilfried Rickels, and Felix Meier
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Any integration of extra carbon dioxide removal (CDR) via terrestrial or marine sink enhancement into climate policies requires accounting for their effectiveness in reducing atmospheric carbon concentration. Different accounting methods have been introduced to quantify the impacts of sink enhancements. Here, we provide a manual for the different accounting methods, accompanying the implementation of the accounting methods in a R-file which is free for download. Hence, the material allows applying the different accounting methods and for demonstration purposes we provide a numerical example.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Maritime, and Carbon Footprint
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12385. Who benefits really from phasing out palm oil-based biodiesel in the EU?

Author:
Ruth Delzeit, Tobias Heimann, Franziska Schunemann, and Mareike Soder
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The latest Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) by the European Union (EU) provides an updated framework for the use of renewable energy in the EU transport sector until 2030. We employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model DART-BIO for a scenario-based policy analysis and evaluate different possible futures of biofuel use under four specifications of the RED II. Our results show that conventional biofuels will not become cost competitive to oil-based fuels. Moreover, we demonstrate the impact of the RED II specifications on the global production of food and feed crops. A further focus of this paper lies on the palm oil phase-out as feedstock for biofuels in the EU, to halt deforestation and land-use change in tropical countries. We find that this phase-out has a relatively small impact on global palm fruit production. Moreover, this study shows that the regulation has the potential to act as a technical barrier to trade, discriminating palm oil producing countries in favour of European rapeseed producers.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

12386. Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo

Author:
Josefin Meyer and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ex-post returns average more than 6 percent annually across two centuries, including default episodes, major wars, and global crises. This represents an excess return of 3-4 percent above US or UK government bonds, which is comparable to stocks and outperforms corporate bonds. Central to this finding are the high average coupons offered on external sovereign bonds. The observed returns are hard to reconcile with canonical theoretical models and the degree of credit risk in this market, as measured by historical default and recovery rates. Based on our archive of more than 300 sovereign debt restructurings since 1815, we show that full repudiation is rare; the median creditor loss (haircut) is below 50 percent.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Finance, and Bonds
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12387. Procedurally Justifiable Strategies: Integrating Context Effects into Multistage Decision Making

Author:
Fynn Kemper and Philipp Wichaardt
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper proposes a simple framework to model contextual influences on procedural decision making. In terms of utility, we differentiate between monetary payoffs and contextual psychological ones, e.g. deriving from the subjects’ normative frame of reference. Monetary payoffs are treated as common knowledge while psychological payoffs are treated as partly unforeseeable. Regarding behaviour, we assume that players act optimal given their local perception of the game. As perceptions may be incorrect, we do not consider common equilibrium conditions but instead require strategies to be procedurally justifiable. As we will argue, various common inconsistencies considered in behavioural economics can be understood as procedurally justifiable behaviour. With the present framework, we add an abstract tool to the discussion which allows to consider also the behavioural implications of players foreseeing the corresponding behavioural effects ̶ which is often not considered in the respective original models.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12388. Regional Solutions to Regional Challenges in the Middle East?

Author:
Brandon Friedman
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Members of two rival camps in the Sunni Middle East — Qatar and Turkey on one side, and Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, on the other — have continued a sustained diplomatic effort at reconciliation that began early this year. In a sign of the delicate progress between Qatar and its Gulf neighbors, on September 17, the Saudi Gazette tweeted a picture of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman standing beside Qatari Emir Tamim Al Thani and Emirati Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed, all dressed informally, in the Egyptian resort city of Sharm al-Sheikh. More recently, on November 24, Mohammed bin Zayed, the Crown Prince of the UAE, met in Ankara with Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in a dramatic reversal of what had appeared to be a hostile rivalry.[1] The visit resulted in the Emiratis establishing a $10 billion fund for investment in Turkey.[2]
Topic:
Diplomacy, Sectarianism, Regional Integration, Sunni, and Shiism
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates

12389. Napoleon’s Bicentenary

Author:
Stephane Cohen
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In 2021, events, expositions, ceremonies, and books commemorated 200 years since the death of Napoleon Bonaparte. Bonaparte himself spent one year in Egypt and what was then the Syrian vilayet (province) of the Ottoman Empire, winning remarkable victories on the battlefield, but failing in the end to achieve his goals and eventually returning to France.
Topic:
Imperialism, History, and Collective Memory
Political Geography:
Europe, Arab Countries, North Africa, and Egypt

12390. Back in Exile: Afghan Stories of a Near Distant Past

Author:
Giovanni Matteo Quer
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In October issue of BeeHive Giovanni Quer explores narratives of escape, identity, and homeland among Afghan exiles.
Topic:
Culture, Identity, Exile, and Narrative
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

12391. Celebrating Ashura in Syria

Author:
Jesse Weinberg
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of BeeHive, Jesse Weinberg explores the social impact of Iranian presence in Syria.
Topic:
Military Intervention, Syrian War, Society, and Ashura
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Syria

12392. For Israel’s Acceptance to the AU as Observer Reveals Continental Divides

Author:
Rina Bassist
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist analyzes the circumstances surrounding Israel's recent accreditation as an African Union observer state, and discusses trends affecting Israeli-African relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

12393. No Boundaries – The Syrian-Lebanese Drug Economy

Author:
Moran Levanoni
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Iqtisadi, Dr. Moran Levanoni analyzes how the Syrian-Lebanese border area has become one of the most important centers for the production of illegal drugs in the Middle East. Hezbollah's key role in the Middle East drug trade is contextualized within its global empire that includes parts of South America, Africa, and Eurasia.
Topic:
Economy, Hezbollah, Drugs, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

12394. Turkey's Nuclear Future

Author:
Assa Ophir
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Turkeyscope Dr. Assa Ophir discusses the implications of Turkish efforts to potentially become a state with an independent nuclear program.
Topic:
NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

12395. Learning from COVID-19: How to make care central to economic policy around the world

Author:
Ruth Pearson and Eva Neitzert
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
After decades of neglect, the COVID-19 pandemic has made visible the vital role that the care economy plays in the functioning of economies and societies—and highlighted the deep crisis at the heart of it. Care recipients and providers of care have been on the COVID-19 frontlines, and the ability of governments to mount an effective response to the pandemic has been hampered by decades of policies that undervalued and neglected the care economy.
Topic:
Economic Policy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12396. The Applicability of Transitional Justice in Pre-Conflict Contexts

Author:
Pablo de Greiff
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The current moment can be characterized, politically, in terms of two macro-level phenomena, a lurch towards populism (of the left and the right) on the part of many leaders (and eventually, their followers), and simultaneously, unusually large popular mobilizations in favor of progressive causes. These seemingly dilemmatic factors arguably share a common underlying cause, namely, great lack of trust in the familiar mechanisms of political representation—a lack of trust which itself has deeper roots in increasing inequality and dysfunctional forms of the politics of recognition.
Topic:
Inequality, Populism, Transitional Justice, and Pre-Conflict Contexts
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12397. From Regressive Subsidies to Progressive Redistribution: The Role of Redistribution and Recognition in Energy Subsidy Reform

Author:
Tara Moayed, Scott Guggenheim, and Paul von Chamier
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Energy subsidies are one of the few domains where there is a near full-throated consensus among progressives, governments, and economists over the need for reform. Nearly everywhere, energy subsidies are regressive, vastly favoring the car-and energy-consuming parts of the population that are the least in need. The costs of these subsidies can vary, but in many countries, they represent a large fiscal burden. Prior to its 2005 reforms, for example, Indonesia's fuel subsidy was nearly the same amount as its health budget and its targeted anti-poverty programs combined. From the perspective of global climate change, few economic policies are as damaging as the direct and indirect contributions of fossil fuel subsidies.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Reform, Fossil Fuels, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12398. A Civil or Uncivil Civil Society?

Author:
Liv Tørres
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Civil society is part and parcel of the institutional architecture that will be crucial to help us out of our current crisis of staggering inequality, pandemic trauma and required recovery. Yet, civil society is large, complex, fragmented, and polarized. It gained renewed and considerable attention during, and after, the ‘Third Wave’ of democracy in the early 1990s when trade unions, professional organizations, women’s and civic organizations, as well as religious organizations and churches in many countries mobilized for democratic change. This was, of course, not the first nor the last period of civic action and mobilization. Civil society has, however, changed dramatically over the past decades. The number of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) has grown. Membership in civil society organizations has kept up, but the meaning of membership has most probably changed. Civic space is under considerable pressure, while social movements, activism, and protests have increased. All in all, civil society now represents a wide variety of actors with different governance structures, with/without membership, varying in size and agenda.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, NGOs, and Participation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12399. A “Hidden Front” in the Battle Against COVID-19: How Behavioral Data is Helping Contain the Pandemic and Improve Policy

Author:
Paul von Chamier and Neil Martin
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
COVID-19 has provided a sharp reminder of the key role citizens’ perceptions and attitudes play in shaping the outcomes of public policy. This experience is changing the way governments use data to combat the pandemic and set priorities for the recovery.
Topic:
Health, Recovery, Data, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12400. Can We Do Informal Housing Better?

Author:
Astrid R. N. Haas
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Across the globe, particularly in urban areas, the gap between the demand and supply of affordable and adequate housing is growing rapidly. This is particularly the case on the African continent, which is currently undergoing the most rapid urban transition recorded in our history. Housing, particularly when it constitutes a home, is the cornerstone of our social, economic, and emotional lives. Having a roof over one’s head epitomizes stability and security for an individual as well as their family. The current COVID-19 pandemic gave housing a new level of importance and also exacerbated inequalities between those with and without adequate housing. In this context, access to affordable and adequate housing is increasingly being recognized not only as a necessity, but rather as a fundamental human right.
Topic:
Regulation, Inequality, COVID-19, and Housing
Political Geography:
South Africa, West Africa, Horn of Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa