Publication Year: within 25 Years / Topic: Government

201. Big Tech, Antitrust, and Breakup

Author:: Michael A. Carrier
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Big Tech is in the news. At the center of our political and economic dialogue is the effect that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have on our lives and what, if anything, governments should do about it. In this article, I explain how Big Tech has come under scrutiny, the antitrust implications of the industry’s behavior, and the potential remedy of breaking up the companies.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Science and Technology, Regulation, Internet, Social Media, and Business
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

202. National Security Update 12: Status of 2020 Defense Authorization/Appropriations and NDAA Highlights

Author:: Jack Kelly
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)
Abstract:: Our twelfth IFPA National Security Update examines the current status of the U.S. defense authorization, appropriations, and budget process with a focus on the Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and assesses its strengths and weaknesses in light of key programs and policies discussed in previous Updates. Topics addressed in our National Security Update series include hypersonic missiles, missile defense priorities, nuclear modernization issues, President Trump's Executive Order on Electromagnetic Pulse, the status of the Space Force, China’s actions in the South China Sea and U.S. options, and the military applications of artificial intelligence. In early 2017, the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis initiated an online series entitled National Security Update. Its purpose is to examine key foreign policy/defense issues and to set forth policy options. These updates are made available to the broad policy community within and outside government, including key policy makers in Washington, D.C.; members of Congress and their staffs; academic specialists; and other members of the private-sector security community. Future National Security Updates will address a range of topics in an effort to provide timely analyses and policy options.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, National Security, Budget, Weapons, Missile Defense, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: China, North America, South China, and United States of America

203. As Israel’s Kingmaker Gets Off the Fence, Gantz Gets a Boost

Author:: David Makovksy
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although Benny Gantz’s party lost the head-to-head battle, Avigdor Liberman’s favorable influence on the coalition math has left the general in a stronger position—and taken some diplomatic weight off the Trump administration’s shoulders. Israel’s third round of elections last week seemed inconclusive at first, but the deadlock may now be broken. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu did better this time than in September’s round two, but his gains were insufficient to form a new government. Potential kingmaker Avigdor Liberman jettisoned his previous idea of getting the two top parties to join forces; instead, personal antipathy and policy differences have led him to definitely state that he will not join any government Netanyahu leads. Thus, while centrist Blue and White Party leader Benny Gantz may have options to shape a new government, Netanyahu has no pathway on his own. In theory, the center-left bloc has the requisite number of seats for a bare majority in the 120-member Knesset, since anti-Netanyahu forces won 62 seats. In reality, the situation is more complex.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

204. Challenges Await Oman’s New Sultan as Mourning Period Ends

Author:: Elena DeLozier
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Sultan Haitham will now be free to put his own stamp on the country's government and foreign policy, and a recent dust-up on the Yemeni border could provide the first indicator of his approach. On February 20, Oman will begin its next era in earnest. The new sultan, Haitham bin Tariq al-Said, was officially sworn in on January 11, but he has remained quiet and mostly out of sight during the forty-day mourning period that followed the death of his cousin, Sultan Qaboos. Now that this period is drawing to a close, he is free to put his stamp on Omani policy. Notably, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will lead the first international delegation to see Sultan Haitham in the post-mourning period. When the meeting was first scheduled, the secretary likely saw it as a chance to get to know the new leader, and also as a symbolic visit to make up for sending such a low-level delegation to offer condolences. Yet the two may have more to talk about now. Earlier this week, a flare-up occurred between Saudi forces and Omani-backed locals in the Yemeni border province of al-Mahra. The confrontation may be Sultan Haitham’s first regional test, and identifying the actors who help him get through it could help Washington discern future power centers within Oman’s often opaque government.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Oman, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

205. Use it or Lose it: Corporate Over-Planning in the Air Force

Author:: Ross Fetterly
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The Canadian government allocates funds to departments through the annual federal budgetary process. With a Department of National Defence (DND) budget in the fiscal year 2019-20 of close to $22 billion,2 and expenditures spread out across a broad range of very different and distinct activities, expending the full allocation can be a significant challenge. While federal departments are permitted some carry-forward of eligible lapsing funds from one fiscal year to the next, in fiscal year 2018-19 the amount designated was up to five per cent of the operating budgets in their Main Estimates.3 With the federal government projecting significant budgetary deficits in the coming years, restricting or eliminating carry-forward of funding may be limited or eliminated to reduce deficits. Past practice within the department has been for the Investment Resource Management Committee (IRMC), chaired by the deputy minister, to decide on funding allocations of the carry-forward, based on departmental corporate priorities. While from an institutional perspective that aligns funding with optimal funding requirements, the consequence to organizations such as the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) is that only a limited amount of lapsed funding may be allocated the following fiscal year. Thus, the air force has a significant incentive regarding its budget: to “use it or lose it”.4 RCAF corporate over-planning (COP) is a principal in-year strategy to maximize the use of allocated financial resources. Yet, at the operational and tactical level, the concept and application of in-year over-planning is not sufficiently understood. This paper will frame over-planning within the context of the RCAF and then recommend strategies to integrate over-planning into the air force culture. Corporate over-planning is essentially a means toward an end; specifically, that of maximizing output given by defined resource allocation. The paper will first consider defence planning approaches and budget allocations, and then consider the strategic environment within which the organization operates. The third section will emphasize the need for change in how the RCAF manages financial resources, followed by a section on adapting to change. The fifth section will review the concept of over-planning. That will be followed by a discussion of RCAF institutional corporate over-planning. The seventh section will consider budgeting as communication and how this supports maintenance of a common operating picture within the RCAF on over-planning. The final section will focus on RCAF corporate over-planning by discussing the structural unexpended rate, applying an absorption rate in operations and maintenance activities, and planning investment opportunities.
Topic:: Government, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and Budget
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

206. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: A Foreign Policy Assessment 2015-2019

Author:: Colin Robertson
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: An internationalist and a progressive, Justin Trudeau consistently boosts diversity, social justice, environmentalism and reconciliation with Indigenous peoples. A gifted retail politician, Trudeau prefers campaigning and contact with voters to the hurly-burly of the House of Commons. He possesses an empathy and emotional intelligence most people found lacking in his famous father, Pierre Trudeau. But are these attributes and causes out of sync with our turbulent times? Mr. Trudeau is learning firsthand what British prime minister Harold MacMillan warned U.S. president John F. Kennedy what was most likely to blow governments off-course: “Events, dear boy, events.” As Trudeau begins a second term as prime minister, the going is tougher. The Teflon is gone. He leads a minority government with new strains on national unity. Parliament, including his experiment in Senate reform, is going to require more of his time. Canada’s premiers will also need attention if he is to achieve progress on his domestic agenda. Does he have the patience and temperament for compromise and the art of the possible? The global operating system is increasingly malign, with both the rules-based international order and freer trade breaking down. Managing relations with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is difficult. Canadian farmers and business are suffering - collateral damage in the Sino-U.S. disputes. In what was supposed to be a celebration of “Canada is back”, there is doubt that Canada will win a seat on the UN Security Council in June 2020. Losing would be traumatic for his government and their sense of Canada’s place in the world. It would also be a rude shock for Canadians’ self-image of themselves internationally.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Politics, and Justin Trudeau
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

207. Financing Capital Assets: The Missing Link in Defence Procurement

Author:: Vern Kakoschke
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Defence procurement in Canada has had some well-known challenges in recent years. Many commentators have suggested possible strategies for fixing the defence procurement system. The identified problems include overspending on defence programs, unnecessary and undue delays in re-equipping Canada’s fleet of aircraft, ships and ground transport, and defence budgets that remain unspent. The problems also include procuring authorities experiencing a shortfall in manpower and expertise, the inability to execute on defence procurements, unjustified sole-sourcing without a proper competition, political interference in selection issues, and the list goes on. The proposed solutions often address process-related matters: establish a single agency responsible for defence procurement or perhaps a cabinet secretariat to manage the involvement of three of four government departments who are often not on the same page. To date, not much has been written or discussed in public policy forums on a critical question: How should the necessary capital assets be financed? At one extreme, Canada could simply write a cheque and pay for them up front, thereby placing the assets on Canada’s balance sheet. At the other extreme, Canada could drop the financing obligation into the laps of private-sector bidders and let them worry about the most efficient way of raising the necessary capital. A middle-ground solution could involve a public-private partnership (P3) structure, a model which seeks to balance the interests of the public and private sectors in a manner that leads to a better solution for all parties. Any public policy discussion often begins with first principles. What is the government’s policy objective? It is to procure the best available equipment, with the most benefit to the Canadian economy or local interest groups and at the lowest possible cost. All three goals must be balanced in a manner that is politically acceptable, meets budget constraints and withstands public scrutiny. In major procurements, capital can be the largest single cost of a defence procurement.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Government, Armed Forces, Finance, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

208. Complex Project Delivery Capability Matters

Author:: Ian Mack
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Canada’s experience with the Phoenix pay system is not just a pay problem. It points to wider problems in Canada’s management of complex major projects. Learning from Phoenix is important for the Government of Canada as a whole and the Department of National Defence specifically, the latter arguably responsible for the largest portfolio of complex projects – both for weapon systems platform and information technology initiatives. Fortunately, it appears that the Liberal government has taken notice. In the most recent Mandate Letters to Ministers, the Treasury Board President has been directed to ‘improve project management capabilities so that all major projects in government are led by a certified professional with at least five years of experience’. Additionally, the new position of Minister of Digital Government was tasked to ‘lead work to create a centre of expertise that brings together the necessary skills to effectively implement major transformation projects across government, including technical, procurement and legal expertise’ (and to lead in the replacement of the replacement pay system). This paper attempts to shed some light on the matter of pursuing complex projects and the enormity of the task at hand. I say “enormity” because complex projects are difficult to deliver at all (let alone on time and budget), as in evidence by the number that continue to fail in the private and public sectors, regardless of the complex project capabilities of those responsible for delivering them.
Topic:: Government, Budget, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

209. Canada’s Campaign for a Seat on the United Nations Security Council: The Historical Context

Author:: Adam Chapnick
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: On Feb. 11, 2016, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau briefed the Ottawa press corps after a meeting with the United Nations (UN) secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon. Having pledged during the 2015 election campaign to re-engage with the UN, he noted that doing so would include “looking towards a bid for the Security Council.” Perhaps this comment should not have surprised. The Conservative government’s failure to win a Security Council (UNSC) seat in 2010 had been a subject of Liberal ridicule for years. Yet, council membership was not included among the Liberals’ 167 campaign promises, nor was it mentioned specifically in then-Foreign Affairs minister Stéphane Dion’s mandate letter. One month later, Trudeau met with Ban again, this time in New York. Afterwards, with Dion looking on, Trudeau announced that Canada would be joining the 2020 Western European and Others Group (WEOG) election for one of two non-permanent seats on the Security Council in 2021-2022. The move was unprecedented. It marked the first time that a Canadian prime minister, and not the Foreign Affairs minister or a member of the foreign service, had publicly declared Canada’s initial interest in a council seat. It was also the first time that Canada had deliberately entered an already contested election: Ireland, Norway and San Marino would be its opponents for two WEOG seats. This brief history of Canadian interest in Security Council membership will suggest that attempting to return to the UNSC was the right decision, made at the wrong time, and for the wrong reasons.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Government, Politics, History, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Canada, United Nations, and North America

210. A Guide to Canadian Diplomatic Relations 1925-2019

Author:: Linwood DeLong
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Much has changed since A Guide to Canadian Diplomatic Relations 1925-1983 was first published in 1985. The Soviet Union and Yugoslavia no longer exist. New states have emerged not only in Europe, but also in Africa. Canada quickly established diplomatic relations with the member states of the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia after their respective dissolutions. In 2003, Canada recognized Eritrea as a separate state and in July 2011, Canada recognized the new state of South Sudan. Finding the date of Canadian diplomatic recognition of a given country or state, the date when diplomatic relations were established with Canada and the date when the first Canadian ambassador or high commissioner took office continues to be a challenge. The print publication, Canadian Heads of Post Abroad 1880-1989, issued by External Affairs and International Trade Canada in 1991, is an excellent source of information, but it is limited by its publication date. A similar online source, Canadian Heads of Posts Abroad Since 1880 (http://w03.international.gc.ca/headsofpost/searchhp-recherchecm.aspx) provides some information specifically pertaining to heads of posts for Canadian diplomatic missions abroad, but it does not always provide information about the date of diplomatic recognition of any given state. In many cases, only the recent information, rather than the historical information concerning the first diplomatic recognition or the date of establishment of diplomatic relations, is provided. Other important sources of information include Canadian Representatives Abroad, the annual reports or annual reviews of the Department of External Affairs (now known as Global Affairs Canada), the External Affairs communiqués and press releases, the publication called External Affairs (which was issued from 1949-1971) and its successor, International Perspectives (published from 1980 to 1991). In this most recent edition of A Guide to Canadian Diplomatic Relations, the following information (if it could be determined) is included for each country: the date of diplomatic recognition, the date that diplomatic relations were first established and the date when the first diplomatic mission was opened (frequently, a legation staffed by a diplomatic representative of lower rank than an ambassador or high commissioner). It also includes the date when the Canadian ambassador or high commissioner first presented his/her credentials and the diplomatic mission officially became an embassy or a high commission. In those few instances where diplomatic relations between Canada and another state were severed, this date, as well as the date when diplomatic relations were re-established, is also provided.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, and History
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and Global Focus

211. The Path of Least Resilience: Autocratic Rule and External Powers in the Middle East

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The examples of Egypt and Saudi Arabia show the risks in betting on the stability of autocratic regimes in the region. Despite the Arab uprisings of the last decade, most countries in the Middle East remain in the grip of autocrats, with a widespread view that this is the 'default setting' for the region. However, an examination of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, where authoritarianism has been revived, reveals both regimes are struggling for popular legitimacy. Increasingly reliant on repression, these regimes risk provoking civil unrest, and external powers should reconsider their assumption that autocracy guarantees stability in the Middle East.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Authoritarianism, Political stability, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Egypt

212. Indonesia's Economy: Between Growth and Stability

Author:: Roland Rajah
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Indonesia has much economic potential but the trade-off between growth and stability continues to bind its growth ambitions. Indonesian economic policy continues to prioritise stability over growth but the adequacy of economic growth has become the bigger issue. President Joko Widodo’s commendable pro-growth efforts have so far only stabilised Indonesia’s trajectory rather than boost it. Doing better will require reforms to be calibrated to make the trade-off between growth and stability less binding while enhancing productivity.
Topic:: Government, International Trade and Finance, Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Asia-Pacific

213. The State of Tunisia's Democratic Transition and the Power and Perils of Consensus Politics

Author:: Daniel Brumberg, Sharan Grewal, Mohamed-Dhia Hammami, Sabina Henneberg, and William Lawrence
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Following elections in September and October, Tunisia is having difficulty forming a government, in part because of the collapse of the 2016 Carthage Pact. MEI is pleased to host a panel featuring several leading analysts of Tunisian politics, who will attempt to answer which approach can produce forward motion while at the same time prevent Tunisia from slipping backward towards authoritarianism. Some parties are defending the consensus model to preserve democratic gains, and others are pursuing to force change based on their political preferences. Presiding over all of this is a populist president without a political party who has in the past proposed a radical overhaul of the entire system, abolishing political parties, and creating a form of direct democracy. It is unclear if Tunisian democracy can survive any of these scenarios, whether it be consensus politics, majoritarian politics, or antipolitics. With any of the formulas, winners win, and losers can easily become spoilers, as nearly happened in 2013 with opposition protests led by the women's movement.
Topic:: Government, Politics, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

214. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 12 Issue 03: COVID-19 and Terrorism

Author:: Raffaello Pantucci, Abdul Basit, Kyler Ong, Nur Aziemah Azman, V. Arianti, and Muh Taufiqurrohman
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has redefined almost all spheres of modern life. While states around the world are redeploying their financial resources, energies and military capabilities to cope with the challenge of the coronavirus, terrorist groups across the ideological spectrum have positioned themselves to exploit the gaps created by these policy re-adjustments. Terrorist groups are milking people’s fears amid confusion and uncertainty to promote their extremist propagandas. The rearrangement of global imperatives will push counter-terrorism and extremism down the priority list of the international community. Anticipating these policy changes, existing counter-terrorism frameworks and alliances should be revisited to devise cost-effective and innovative strategies to ensure continuity of the fight against terrorist groups. With these considerations in mind, this special issue of the Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) features four articles that identify and assess important security risks around COVID-19, given its far-reaching social, economic and geopolitical impact. In the first article, Raffaello Pantucci reasons that COVID-19 will have a deep-seated and prolonged impact across government activity, both in terms of the categorisation of risks, as well as the resources available to tackle other issues. Perceptions of risk around terrorist threats may shift, with states grappling with stark economic, social and political challenges. At the same time, security threats continue to evolve, and may even worsen. According to the author, some of the tools developed to deal with the pandemic can potentially be useful in tracking terrorist threats. However, resource constraints will require states, on a global scale, to think far more dynamically about how to adequately buffer much-needed security blankets both within and beyond their borders. In the second article, Abdul Basit outlines the opportunities and potential implications that COVID-19 has created for terrorist groups across the ideological divide. According to the author, terrorist groups have exploited the virus outbreak to spread racial hatred, doomsday and end-of-times narratives. Among jihadist groups, IS has taken a more totalitarian view of the coronavirus pandemic, while Al-Qaeda (AQ) and the Taliban have used it as a PR exercise to gain political legitimacy. Far-right groups in the West have spun it to promote native nationalism, border restoration and anti-immigration policies. Terrorist groups have increased their social media propaganda to radicalise and recruit vulnerable individuals. At the same time, these groups have urged their supporters to carry out lone-wolf attacks and use the coronavirus as a bioweapon. In the post-COVID-19 world, revisiting existing counter-terrorism frameworks to devise more adaptable and cost-effective strategies would be needed to continue the fight against terrorism. In the next article, V. Arianti and Muh Taufiqurrohman observe that the COVID-19 outbreak has had a varied impact on Indonesia’s security landscape. On the one hand, it has emboldened IS-affiliated Indonesian militant groups to step up calls for attacks, with the government seen as weakened amidst a worsening domestic health crisis. On the other, ongoing indoctrination and recruitment activities of militant groups have also faced disruptions. According to the authors, counter-terrorism strategies will need to be reoriented as circumstances evolve, particularly in dealing with the arrest of militants and the subsequent processes of their prosecution and incarceration. Finally, Kyler Ong and Nur Aziemah Azman examine the calls to action by far-right extremists and the Islamic State (IS), which reveals varying degrees of organisational coherence in the respective movements. According to the authors, such variations influence these two groups’ preferred techniques, tactics and procedures adopted in seeking to exploit the health crisis. For its part, IS has a more organised hierarchical structure, even if it has increasingly granted autonomy to its affiliates to plan and execute attacks. In comparison, the absence of a central authority, or command structure in the far-right, can lead to a fragmentation of interests. These factors invariably create uncertainties in how, when and where extremists of both ilk may seek to operationalise an attack.
Topic:: Security, Government, Health, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: South Asia, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Global Focus

215. Coronavirus and the Middle East

Author:: Dan Gottlieb and Mordechai Kedar
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: The coronavirus crisis has exposed Arab and Islamic notions of fraternity, mutual commitment, and solidarity as hollow rhetorical slogans. Each country in the region is focused entirely on its own efforts to survive economically, socially, and politically as the pandemic continues to wreak havoc.
Topic:: Government, Health, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East

216. Securing macroeconomic and monetary stability with a Federal Reserve–backed digital currency

Author:: Julia Coronado and Simon Potter
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The US monetary system faces significant challenges from advances in technology and changes in the macroeconomy that, left unaddressed, will threaten the stability of the US economy and financial system. At the same time, low interest rates mean that central banks will not have the policy ammunition they had in the past during the next recession. The Federal Reserve needs new tools to meet its mandates of price stability and maximum employment. It also needs to preserve the safety and soundness of the financial system in a rapidly digitizing world. The authors propose a Fed-backed digital currency to solve both problems. Their proposal creates a regulated system of digital currency accounts for consumers managed by digital payment providers and fully backed by reserves at the Fed. The system would be limited in size, to preserve the functions and stability of the existing banking system. Fed backing would mean low capital requirements, which would in turn facilitate competition. Low fees and no minimum balance requirements in the new system would also help financial institutions reach the roughly 25 percent of the US population that is currently either unbanked or underbanked. Digital accounts for consumers could also provide a powerful new stabilization tool for both monetary and fiscal policies. For fiscal policy, it could facilitate new automatic stabilizers while also allowing the Fed to provide quantitative easing directly to consumers. This tool could be used in a timely manner with broad reach to all Americans.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Monetary Policy, Banks, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

217. Reviving the potency of monetary policy with recession insurance bonds

Author:: Julia Coronado and Simon Potter
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In the second part of their Policy Brief, Coronado and Potter discuss how the system of digital payment providers (DPPs) proposed in their first Policy Brief on this topic adds a new weapon to the monetary toolkit that could be implemented in a timely, effective, and inclusive manner. They describe how a digital currency backed by the Federal Reserve could augment automatic fiscal stabilizers and—more importantly—harness the power of “helicopter” money or quantitative easing directly to consumers in a disciplined manner. To implement QE directly to consumers, Coronado and Potter propose the creation of recession insurance bonds (RIBs)—zero-coupon bonds authorized by Congress and calibrated as a percentage of GDP sufficient to provide meaningful support in a downturn. Congress would create these contingent securities; Treasury would credit households’ digital accounts with them. The Fed could purchase them from households in a downturn after its policy rate hits zero. The Fed’s balance sheet would grow by the value of RIBs purchased; the initial matching liability would be deposits into the DPP system. The mechanism is easy for consumers to understand and could boost inflation expectations more than a debt-financed fiscal stimulus could.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Monetary Policy, and Insurance
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

218. Export controls: America’s other national security threat

Author:: Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: While the public was transfixed by the Trump administration’s policies alleging that imports were a threat to America’s national security during 2017–20, there was a concomitant and more quiet US policy shift on the export side. Addressing the national security threat presented by exports posed different economic and institutional challenges from those associated with import policy, including the acknowledgment that export controls for legitimate national security reasons can be the first-best policy to confront the problem at its source. Yet, export controls could also be misused as a beggar-thy-neighbor policy to redistribute economic well-being across countries, even from one ally to another. This paper describes how US export control policy evolved over 2017–20, as well as the international institutions—first the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (COCOM), then the Wassenaar Arrangement—historically tasked with multilateralizing US export restrictions used to protect national security. With the potential for US export control policy to brush up more frequently against WTO rules designed to limit the use of export restrictions, the paper also highlights new challenges for the WTO’s system of resolving trade disputes. Overall, a US failure to strike the right balance for its export control policy would result in it being ineffective at addressing national security risks, costly for the economy, and problematic for trade and diplomatic relations.
Topic:: Economics, Government, National Security, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

219. A New Policy Toolkit Is Needed as Countries Exit COVID-19 Lockdowns

Author:: Olivier Blanchard, Thomas Philippon, and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The measures that most governments took in response to the sudden collapse in economic activity during the COVID-19 lockdowns nearly exclusively focused on protecting vulnerable workers and firms. These measures included unemployment benefits, grants, transfers, loans at low rates, and tax deferrals. As lockdowns are lifted, governments must shift policies toward supporting the recovery and design measures that will limit the pain of adjustment while preserving productive jobs and firms. This Policy Brief explores how such measures can be designed, with particular emphasis on Europe and the United States. The authors propose a combination of unemployment benefits to help workers, wage subsidies and partially guaranteed loans to help firms, and debt restructuring procedures for small and medium-sized companies handicapped by excessive legacy debt from the crisis.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Government, Labor Issues, Unemployment, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

220. Developing Countries Can Help Restore the WTO's Dispute Settlement System

Author:: Ana González and Euijin Jung
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: By refusing to fill vacancies in the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Appellate Body—the top body that hears appeals and rules on trade disputes—the Trump administration has paralyzed the key component of the dispute settlement system. No nation or group of nations has more at stake in salvaging this system than the world’s big emerging-market economies: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Mexico, and Thailand, among others. These countries have actively and successfully used the dispute settlement system to defend their commercial interests abroad and resolve inevitable trade conflicts. The authors suggest that even though the developing countries did not create the Appellate Body crisis, they may hold a key to unlock it. The Trump administration has also focused its ire on a longstanding WTO practice of giving these economies latitude to seek “special and differential treatment” in trade negotiations because of their developing-country status. The largest developing economies, which have a significant stake in preserving a two-step, rules-based mechanism for resolving trade disputes, could play a role in driving a potential bargain to save the appeals mechanism. They could unite to give up that special status in return for a US commitment to end its boycott of the nomination of Appellate Body members.
Topic:: Development, Government, World Trade Organization, Developing World, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, India, South Korea, Brazil, North America, Mexico, Thailand, and United States of America

221. Automatic stabilizers in a low-rate environment

Author:: Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: With interest rates persistently low or even negative in advanced countries, policymakers have barely any room to ease monetary policy when the next recession hits. Fiscal policy will have to play a major and likely dominant role in stimulating the economy, requiring policymakers to fundamentally reconsider fiscal policy. Blanchard and Summers argue for the introduction of what they call “semiautomatic” stabilizers. Unlike purely automatic stabilizers (mechanisms built into government budgets that automatically—without discretionary government action or explicit triggers—increase spending or decrease taxes when the economy slows or enters a recession), semiautomatic stabilizers are targeted tax or spending measures that are triggered if, say, the output growth rate declines or the unemployment rate increases beyond a specified threshold. The authors argue that the trigger should be changes in unemployment rather than changes in output, and the design of semiautomatic stabilizers, whether they focus on mechanisms that rely primarily on income or on intertemporal substitution effects (changing the timing of consumption), depends crucially on the design of discretionary policy.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Monetary Policy, and Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

222. France and the Russian Presence in Africa

Author:: Łukasz Maślanka
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron initiated a Franco-Russian dialogue aimed at improving bilateral relations, as well as EU-Russia relations. This effort could be confounded by the growing Russian engagement in Africa, mainly through their military, business, and propaganda activities. These are increasingly harmful to France, which traditionally engages in the politics and economies of African states. The French government hasn’t yet prepared any coherent strategy vis-à-vis the Russian challenge, preferring to wait it out.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and France

223. The U.S. Fight against Coronavirus

Author:: Marek Wąsiński and Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The coronavirus outbreak is spreading throughout the United States. After its initial underestimation of the threat, the Trump administration has acted to fight against the pandemic, including the introduction of a national emergency. The effectiveness of these actions will be an important factor in whether Trump is re-elected. The limits on social life despite the enormous financial support from the government and the Federal Reserve have dramatically slowed the economy, heading into a recession. Public debt will increase much more rapidly, which may force budget cuts in the coming years.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Health, Financial Crisis, Health Care Policy, Crisis Management, Donald Trump, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

224. The End of “Black Zero”: The Second Wave of Anti-Crisis Measures in Germany

Author:: Sebastian Płóciennik
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The prospect of dire economic repercussions from the coronavirus pandemic has prompted the German government to expand its intervention tools. The latest package puts the emphasis on helping the smallest companies and self-employed, offering more loan guarantees, as well as the possibility of temporary state purchases of shares in companies. The crisis is a challenge for fiscal policy—it will lead to a large deficit in public finances and to rising pressure on the German government to accept joint financial measures in the eurozone.
Topic:: Government, Health, Fiscal Policy, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

225. Latvia’s Climate Policy

Author:: Kinga Raś
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: At the end of January 2020, the Latvian government approved the country’s climate neutrality strategy until 2050, and in March it supported even more ambitious EU targets for reducing emissions. These declarations are connected with the need for a thorough transformation of the economy. The Latvian authorities combine these changes with the outlook for economic growth, including the development of the newest technologies in the energy sector. Latvia’s approach, subordinated to climate action, coincides with the policy of other countries in the region, but differs from the Polish vision of energy transformation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Government, Europe Union, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Poland, and Latvia

226. Implications of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Stability of Iran and the Regional Situation

Author:: Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Iran’s official figures on cases and deaths from COVID-19 (the disease resulting from coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2) do not reflect the real scale of the pandemic in that country, which might be among the hardest hit in the world. The pandemic will deepen the economic crisis and disfunction of the state, becoming a challenge to Iran’s ruling elite. The regime might survive thanks to the security apparatus and, in parallel, continue its support of Shia militias in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, and the Syrian government. Only the succession of power after Ali Khamenei will be the real test of the coherence of the Iranian elite, and in case of disruption, it might result in the collapse of Iran’s theocracy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, Health, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and Elites
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syrian Arab Republic

227. Israel and the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Israel took early preventive measures against the COVID-19 pandemic that contributed to low infection and mortality rates. This allowed lifting the restrictions and restarting the economy at the end of April. The cooperation undertaken with the Palestinian Authority helped limit the spread of COVID-19 across the Palestinian territories. The successful fight against the spread of the coronavirus in Israel has strengthened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but the newly earned support may be halted by the impending economic slowdown.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Coronavirus, and Pandemic
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

228. Political Tensions and the Failure to Curb COVID-19 in Brazil

Author:: Bartlomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The spread rate of COVID-19 in Brazil is increasing and the policies of the federal government, headed by President Jair Bolsonaro, do not contribute to a slowdown in the pandemic. Bolsonaro downplays the threat and rejects restrictive measures as he priori-tises support for the economy. He has clashed with state governors who introduced restrictions and with the Federal Supreme Court, which defended their autonomy. The deteriorating situation in Brazil amid the pandemic and political situation diminish Bolsonaro’s chances of re-election in 2022 and may strain his government’s relations with EU partners.
Topic:: Government, Health, Politics, Health Care Policy, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and Jair Bolsonaro
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

229. A new policy toolkit is needed as countries exit COVID-19 lockdowns

Author:: Olivier Blanchard, Thomas Philippon, and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Most governments have taken measures to protect vulnerable workers and firms from the worst effects of the sudden drop in activity related to COVID-19. But as lockdowns are lifted, the focus must shift, and governments in advanced economies must design measures that will limit the pain of adjustment.
Topic:: Government, Labor Issues, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

230. Will getting Brexit done restore political trust?

Author:: Will Jennings
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: There has been much written and said about the degree of trust that voters have in their government, and in politicians in general. At a time of considerable uncertainty around Covid-19, as well as around the various laws and guidelines governing public behaviour during the pandemic, these questions have taken on a newfound urgency. This report looks provides a starting point for those interested in tracking the relationship between government and governed in this Parliament.
Topic:: Government, Politics, European Union, Brexit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

231. Four years since the referendum: the state of public opinion

Author:: John Curtice, Paula Surridge, Will Jennings, James Johnson, and Anand Menon
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: To mark four years since the EU referendum, our Isolation Insight event looked at how public opinion has changed since the vote, how values have evolved and shaped politics, trust in government and leaders, and more. Speakers: Sir John Curtice, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Paula Surridge, political sociologist, University of Bristol; Professor Will Jennings, professor of political science and public policy, University of Southampton; James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners and former head pollster at 10 Downing Street; Chair: Professor Anand Menon, director, UK in a Changing Europe
Topic:: Government, Politics, European Union, Brexit, and Referendum
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

232. Devolution post-Brexit: new frictions, old tensions

Author:: Katy Hayward, Nicola McEwen, Dan Wincott, Peter Foster, and Anand Menon
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: The UK’s membership of the EU played a supporting role in maintaining the domestic Union, even as devolved powers grew. Brexit has exposed the legal fragility of the UK internal market at a time when relations between Westminster and the devolved governments are especially fraught. Proposals to replace EU regulation with new all-UK frameworks may reduce the risk of internal barriers, but they could also further centralise power in London. Our next Isolation Insight event explored these tensions, considering how they might play into debates on the future of the Union itself. Speakers: Dr Katy Hayward, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Professor Nicola McEwen, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Professor Dan Wincott, director of Governance after Brexit; Peter Foster, public policy editor, @Financial Times; Chair: Professor Anand Menon, director, UK in a Changing Europe
Topic:: International Relations, Government, European Union, Brexit, and Centralization
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

233. Making Sure the Lebanese Revolution Does Not Devour Its Own Children

Author:: Christophe Abi Nassif
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: When protests broke out across Lebanon on 17 October 2019, very few people anticipated the political, economic, and financial consequences that the country finds itself facing today. In an unprecedented buildup of events, a government resigned, a monetary crisis sharply accelerated, and uncertainty about the future of a nation spiked. And while the first few weeks have been particularly raging, a relative status quo between protesters and the government seems to have prevailed. This article makes the case for four essential changes that the Lebanese revolution may want to consider to avoid stagnation and potential decay and ultimately achieve results and a significant breakthrough in political representation.
Topic:: Government, Social Movement, Crisis Management, and Revolution
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

234. Horrible Trade-offs in a Pandemic: Lockdowns, Transfers, Fiscal Space, and Compliance

Author:: Ricardo Hausmann and Ulrich Schetter
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: In this paper, we develop a heterogeneous agent general equilibrium framework to analyze optimal joint policies of a lockdown and transfer payments in times of a pandemic. In our model, the effectiveness of a lockdown in mitigating the pandemic depends on endogenous compliance. A more stringent lockdown deepens the recession which implies that poorer parts of society find it harder to subsist. This reduces their compliance with the lockdown, and may cause deprivation of the very poor, giving rise to an excruciating trade-off between saving lives from the pandemic and from deprivation. Lump-sum transfers help mitigate this trade-off. We identify and discuss key trade-offs involved and provide comparative statics for optimal policy. We show that, ceteris paribus, the optimal lockdown is stricter for more severe pandemics and in richer countries. We then consider a government borrowing constraint and show that limited fiscal space lowers the optimal lockdown and welfare, and increases the aggregate death burden during the pandemic. We finally discuss distributional consequences and the political economy of fighting a pandemic.
Topic:: Development, Government, Political Economy, Inequality, Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

235. The U.S. Government Was Not Adequately Prepared for Coronavirus at Home or Abroad

Author:: Jimmy Kolker
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: : After retiring from the Foreign Service in 2007, Ambassador Kolker spent four years at UNICEF before moving to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. As Assistant Secretary for Global Affairs there, he dealt with a number of international health concerns, including Ebola, Zika, and HIV/AIDS. This piece is adapted from his Virtual Presentation to an online DACOR audience on April 8, 2020. While the Coronavirus outbreak and pandemic found nearly all countries unprepared, U.S. lapses in addressing major documented flaws in our preparedness contributed to breakdowns of international collaboration and solidarity as well as institutional conflicts and stress on our health system at home.
Topic:: Government, International Cooperation, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

236. It Is Up to the State Department to Reimagine a Better Institution

Author:: Tianna Spears
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: My name is Tianna Spears. Many may recognize me as the Black diplomat who ultimately fled the State Department after being harassed by U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials while crossing the border into the country where I was born. At the age of 26, I was diagnosed with debilitating mental health conditions and left traumatized. But I am not my trauma— I am a friend, sister, daughter. A person. I am now 28 years old. This year has been bittersweet for me. My grief, disappointment, rage, and sadness are not just personal, but as a Black woman in America, I’ve grappled with the question of how do I grieve a personal loss that is also systemic?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Government, Race, Reform, and Memoir
Political Geography:: United States of America

237. Timebomb at the Port: How Institutional Failure, Political Squabbling and Greed Set the Stage for Blowing up Beirut

Author:: Reinound Leenders
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The institutional set-up of the Port of Beirut is emblematic of Lebanon’s post-war corruption and sectarian clientelism. Any investigation into the 4 August explosion needs to take into account the port’s dismal institutional record and how the current political class ensured its governance remained opaque and messy. This paper provides critical insights into the port’s set-up over the last 30 years highlighting the failing political system, a greedy political class, and entrenched mismanagement and corruption. It demonstrates how the bickering of key actors over the port’s control and the port’s institutional failures set the stage for the blast, pointing to an urgent need to build an accountable port authority as part of any reform effort.
Topic:: Government, Governance, Accountability, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

238. Powering Through the Pandemic

Author:: Ashwini K. Swain
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: The disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic are consequential for India’s long-term electricity goals. While exacerbating the existing weaknesses in the sector, the pandemic could also affect the trend toward an electricity transition. This report is an attempt to understand the impact of the pandemic on India’s electricity, government responses, and thus, suggest a structural approach to building a resilient electricity future. We find that the Covid-19 caused disruptions in the electricity sector are pervasive and have alarming secondary effects and long-term consequences. While the Central and state governments have been swift to recognise the disruptions, the band-aid approach, focused on fixing existing patterns in the sector, appears inadequate to challenges. Ironically, the long-term electricity reform agenda – proposed in major legislative and policy amendment proposals – shaped in times of a pandemic has failed to internalise the challenges thrown-up and insights gained from the Covid-19 experience. The combination of Covid-19 disruptions, technological driven cost reductions in renewable energy, and the longstanding financial and governance problems of the sector combine to create a ‘critical juncture’ for the sector- a moment to envision a new and alternative configuration of technology, institutions and politics that could transform Indian electricity. While this a long-term and complex conversation, the report suggests illustrative pathways toward these goals.
Topic:: Government, Electricity, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

239. Financing Nutrition in India: Cost Implications of the Nutrition Policy Landscape 2019-20

Author:: Avani Kapur, Ritwik Shukla, Manan Thakkar, and Purnima Menon
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: India should have spent at least ₹38,571 crore in 2019-20, across Union government ministries and State government departments to fully finance a set of core direct nutrition interventions (DNIs), at scale. In this study, you will find information on nutrition costing. It carries forward critical studies that costed for nutrition interventions.
Topic:: Government, Food, and Finance
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

240. A Crisis of Hunger: a ground report on the repercussions of COVID-19 related lockdown on Delhi’s vulnerable populations

Author:: Ashwin Parulkar and Mukta Naik
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: The lock-down in response to COVID-19 has created an unprecedented food crisis in Delhi. While monthly-wage earning households may have a few days food supply on hand, daily wage labourers – now without work - have no income and, therefore, no ability to buy food. Even those with means to buy food face local access barriers because vendors and street markets are no longer operational. The Delhi government recently announced relief measures for such vulnerable people. But we find these have serious lacuna that must be identified and addressed to respond to the unfolding crisis of hunger at hand. This report draws on conversations with civil society organisations with deep networks on ground to highlight key issues and possible solutions. We discuss three key Delhi government announcements: the deployment of homeless shelters for provision of food, the use of the construction workers cess for direct benefit transfers, and the increase in PDS allocations. Additionally, we draw attention to measures under the ICDS and on the specific and acute distress among residents of violence affected north-east Delhi. Last, we discuss the plight of migrants trapped inside Delhi who want to return home.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, Government, Labor Issues, Hunger, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

241. Limits of the Conservative Revolution in the States

Author:: Matt Grossmann
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: Matt Grossmann analyzes the policy consequences of increasing Republican control of U.S. state governments since the 1990s. He finds that Republican states have enacted some new conservative policies, but many other liberal policy revolutions have continued unabated. He argues that conservative policymaking is difficult because federal policy and electoral incentives incentivize continued government expansion.
Topic:: Government, Politics, Conservatism, and Political Science
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

242. Do Global Publics View Human Rights Organizations as Handmaidens of the United States?

Author:: David Crow and James Ron
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: David Crow and James Ron look at how global publics view the relationship between human rights organizations and the U.S. government. They argue that ordinary people across various world regions do not perceive human rights groups as “handmaidens” of U.S. foreign policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Human Rights, Non-Governmental Organization, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

243. Toppling Foreign Governments: The Logic of Regime Change, Melissa Willard-Foster

Author:: Alexander B. Downes
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: The rapid-fire overthrow of the theocratic Taliban regime in Afghanistan (2001) and Saddam Hussein’s Baathist dictatorship in Iraq (2003) by the United States—and the disastrous aftermaths of those and other recent interventions (such as the ouster of Libya’s Muammar el-Qaddafi in 2011)— has sparked popular and scholarly interest in the causes and consequences of foreign-imposed regime change (FIRC). One of the enduring puzzles about FIRCs is that, as highlighted in Melissa Willard-Foster’s terrific book Toppling Foreign Governments, three-quarters of them are carried out by great powers against minor powers in situations of extreme power asymmetry. “Though this asymmetry of power makes an imposed change feasible,” writes Willard-Foster, a political scientist at the University of Vermont, “it should also make that change unnecessary” because “militarily weak leaders who are bereft of allies should back down when confronted by stronger states” (pp. 2–3). The 133 regime changes in Willard-Foster’s study, however, testify that the weak regularly defy the strong—and pay the price for it.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Regime Change, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, and United States of America

244. Changing Cultures in Congress: From Fair Play to Power Plays, Donald R. Wolfensberger

Author:: Ryan D. Williamson
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: In 2017, then Speaker of the House Paul Ryan broke the record for most closed rules in a single session. Ironically, this feat came only two years after vowing to lead the House in a more open and inclusive manner than his recent predecessors had. This about-face was not new or unique to Ryan, though. Indeed, he was simply the next in a string of Speakers over the previous few decades to promise greater debate, only to renege shortly thereafter. Chronicling this decline of deliberation in Congress is the focus of Donald R. Wolfensberger’s work. The former Republican staff director for the House Rules Committee offers a detailed yet accessible insight into how Congress has evolved in recent history. Beginning with a brief discussion of the history of majoritarian politics in Congress, Wolfensberger specifically looks at a litany of case studies from the last two decades. Topics cover a wide range, including health care reform, budgets and deficits, and the Iran nuclear deal, to name a few. Within each, a common theme pervades—the majority party must “rely on extraordinary consultation, pressures, and compromises within its own ranks, as well as on a creative use of the rules, to eke out a victory on contentious legislation” (p. 57).
Topic:: Government, Book Review, and Political Science
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

245. Turkmenistan, Now With Soviet-Style Deficits, on Brink of Explosion

Author:: Paul A. Goble
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Turkmenistan, far and away the most closed country in the former Soviet space, seldom receives much attention except as the butt of dismissive jokes or, more recently, when its leaders tried to deny that COVID-19 is present in their country even as they took measures intended to hinder its spread (see EDM, July 21). But multiple reports over the last few days suggest Turkmenistan is fast descending into an economic crisis that makes its continued socio-political stability ever less likely. Moreover, this Central Asian country now has an opposition based abroad that is increasingly capable of providing leadership to local Turkmenistanis infuriated by the domestic situation they find themselves in as a result of the authorities’ oppressive policies.
Topic:: Government, Crisis Management, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Turkmenistan

246. Başkanlık Sistemi Üzerine: Cumhurbaşkanlığı Sisteminin Zayıf Halkası Parlamento

Author:: Hamza Al
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Türkiye, 2017 yılında, 1876 yılından beri uygulamada olan Parlamenter hükümet sistemine son vererek, Başkanlık sistemine geçti. Uzun süreden beri yaşanan politik, ekonomik ve toplumsal sorunlar, Başkanlık sistemine geçişin gerekçesi olarak sunuldu. Parlamenter sistemden Başkanlık sistemine geçiş sürecinde, yeterli olmasa da, konu tartışıldı. Birçok konuda olduğu gibi bu konuda da baskın iki görüş ortaya çıktı. Başkanlık sisteminden yana olanlar, genellikle Türkiye’de yürürlükteki Parlamenter sistemin sonuçları üzerinden konuya yaklaştılar. Parlamenter sistemden yana olanlar ise Başkanlık sisteminin özellikle Latin Amerika’daki uygulamaları üzerinden konuyu ele aldılar. Artık Türkiye, Başkanlık sistemine geçtiğine göre yapılması gereken, Başkanlık sisteminin zayıf noktalarına ve yürürlükteki Cumhurbaşkanlığının eksiklerine odaklanmaktır. Böylece yürürlükteki sistem, daha güçlü hale gelebilir ve sistemden kaynaklanan sorunlar bir nebze olsun giderilebilir. Bu bağlamada çalışmada, hükümet sistemlerinin doğuşu, aralarındaki farklar, yaygınlıkları ele alındıktan sonra Başkanlık sisteminin zayıf noktaları ortaya konularak yürürlükteki Cumhurbaşkanlığı sisteminin eksiklikleri üzerinde durulmuştur. Buna göre, daha önceki Hükümet sistemi gibi, yeni Hükümet sisteminin de zayıf halkası yasama organıdır. Bu bağlamda Türkiye, yasama organını güçlendirilerek, muhtemel sorunların üstesinden gelebilir.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

247. State Authority Restoration in the Central African Republic: The Striking Gap Between Its Past, Its Potential, and People’s Expectations

Author:: Tim Glawion
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Central African Republic (CAR) could be a case of hope. After years of violence, the main armed groups and the government signed a peace agreement last year. At the end of 2020, elections are set to take place that could strengthen the democratic credentials of the country and grant its institutions the legitimacy needed to rebuild the state. As surveys have shown the populace is tired of the armed groups scattered (and fighting) throughout the country and demand the return of the state. The state is building up its army and deploying troops across a growing part of the country’s territory with the help of international actors. However, the restoration of state authority in the CAR remains unlikely. The state’s history is one of neglect, meaning there remains little to be “restored” and much to be built in the first place. Whether the state is willing and able to live up to the population’s demands is questionable. The military approach to state authority restoration and the integration of armed actors risks marginalizing the calls for an emphasis on public services. Locals hope for the return of the state—and one that is robust and caring. The reality of a militarized and inefficient state would shatter these hopes.
Topic:: Development, Government, Governance, State, and Society
Political Geography:: Africa and Central African Republic

248. National Security Upate 13: Accessing the Technologies and Capabilities of the U.S. Commercial High-Tech Sector: A Defense Department Priority

Author:: Jack Kelly
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)
Abstract:: Our thirteenth IFPA National Security Update examines the growing need of the Department of Defense to access and leverage the advanced dual-use technologies increasingly being developed in the commercial high-tech sector to maintain U.S. technological and military superiority. It focuses on the impediments facing the U.S. government and Defense Department in accessing commercial high-tech technologies, strategies and policies to remove these impediments, specific programs and initiatives to address the problem, and the concerns about the growing technological and military capabilities of China. Topics addressed in our National Security Update series include the FY2020 National Defense Authorization Act, hypersonic missiles, military applications of artificial intelligence, missile defense priorities, the Trump Administration’s Executive Order on Electromagnetic Pulse, the status of the Space Force, and China’s actions in the South China Sea and U.S. options.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, Science and Technology, Strategic Competition, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: China, North America, and United States of America

249. The New Weapon of Choice: Technology and Information Operations Today

Author:: Kelly M. McFarland
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:: In recent years, a growing number of governments, non-state actors, and citizens have rapidly expanded their use of pernicious information operations against other countries and even their fellow citizens. Social media and the internet have become the main tool. The current technological revolution has lowered the cost of entry for those wishing to spread misinformation and disinformation. Some use the internet to propagate an alternative version of the global order they seek to dominate, to damage a regional rival, or to influence their own or others’ elections. The players, tactics, tools, and topics will continue to expand in the months and years ahead, and the coronavirus pandemic has only enhanced the salience of these activities. Information operation campaigns sow confusion, further divide deeply partisan societies, and are an existential threat to democracies around the world. Thus far, governmental, tech sector, and civil society responses have fallen short, although some have fared better than others. In fall 2019 and the spring 2020, the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy convened a series of working group meetings that included academics and practitioners, private sector specialists, and representatives from civil society. The attendees mapped out this space and identified the challenges inherent in this new form of incipient and widespread information operations. This group also identified potential areas of further engagement, collaboration, and research within the private sector, academia, and civil society. Ultimately, the group came up with a set of principles and policy recommendations for governments, private sector companies, and civil society to enact in both the near-and-long-term in order to mitigate information operations.
Topic:: Government, Science and Technology, and Information Technology
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

250. Australia's next cybersecurity strategy: Views from The Strategist

Author:: Fergus Hanson, Gai Brodtmann, Rachael Falk, Nigel Phair, Lesley Seebeck, and Peter A. Dutton
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Back in 2016, Australia launched a new national cybersecurity strategy. The strategy covers a four-year period to 2020, and given the changes in the security environment, an update is now clearly warranted. To that end, the government has just released a discussion paper to kick off the public consultation. The closing date for submissions on the discussion paper is 1 November. To complement the public submission process, ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre is initiating a public debate on what should be included in the next cybersecurity strategy. Contributions will be compiled into a report that we will deliver to the Department of Home Affairs to inform the strategy’s development. This Strategic Insight includes views from The Strategist published in late 2019.
Topic:: Development, Government, Science and Technology, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Australia and Australia/Pacific

251. Paradoxes of Professionalism: Rethinking Civil-Military Relations in the United States

Author:: Risa Brooks
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Security
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The U.S. military’s prevailing norms of military professionalism are poorly suited to meet today’s civil-military challenges. These norms, based on Samuel Huntington's objective civilian control model, argue that the military should operate in a sphere separate from the civilian domain of policymaking and decisions about the use of force. Yet, these norms also undermine the military’s nonpartisan and apolitical ethos, weaken civilian leaders' control of military activity, and undercut the country’s strategic effectiveness in armed conflict.
Topic:: Government, Military Affairs, Public Policy, and Norms
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

252. The 2004 Recurrence: The Impact of Escalation on the Domestic Political Equilibrium in Iran

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Conservative Fundamentalist movement in Iran, directly linked to the Republic’s Supreme Leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is apparently heading towards achieving a significant win in the parliamentary elections due to take place on February 21, 2020. This will play a pivotal role in mapping out political forces within the country before the presidential elections of next year, which the Conservatives might also seize from the moderate stream. The Conservatives are trying to take advantage of the heated political dynamics by using the current escalation with the US, after the murder of Qassem Soleimani, leader of ‘the Quds Force’, the rising possibilities of the failure of the nuclear agreement, and the referral of the Iranian case back to the Security Council, all for the sake of boosting their chances of taking control over the Regime’s center of authority.
Topic:: Government, Reform, Elections, and Conservatism
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

253. A Difficult Mission: Will the appointment of Allawi as Prime Minister end the crisis in Iraq?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The attacks on some Iraqi demonstrators on February 3, 2020, on account of which a number of so-called "blue hats" were indicted, imply the persistence of the Iraqi political crisis, despite the appointment of Muhammed Tawfiq Allawi as head of the new government. Allawi, who was the former Minister of Communications, was officially appointed by President Barham Saleh at the beginning of February 2020. The announcement comes two months after the House of Representative accepted the resignation of Adil Abdul-Mahdi, the former Prime Minister of the Caretaker Government. However, according to the Iraqi constitution, the appointment of a new prime minister should have been selected from the ‘largest bloc’ within the Parliament and should have taken place within a maximum period of 15 days, following the resignation. What is worth noticing here is that the mechanism by which Allawi was nominated for Prime Minister resembles that of Adil Abdul-Mahdi. Identifying the largest bloc within the parliament was also overlooked, because of the consensus between the various political forces, particularly between the two the coalitions, Saairun ‘Alliance Towards Reforms’and the Fatah ‘Conquest Alliance’, which are occupying the largest number of seats in Parliament. This is actually contrary to what is affirmed by the Iraqi constitution in Article 76 thereof, which states that “the President of the Republic shall charge the nominee of the largest Council of Representatives bloc with the formation of the Council of Ministers…".
Topic:: Government, Constitution, and Protests
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

254. Easing Syrian Refugees’ Plight in Lebanon

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Most Syrian refugees in Lebanon have thought many times about going home but in the end deemed the risks too great. Donors should increase aid allowing the Lebanese government to continue hosting the Syrians, so that any decision they make to leave is truly voluntary. What’s new? Pressure on Syrian refugees in Lebanon to return home is rising. Although Syria remains unsafe for most, refugees are trickling back, escaping increasingly harsh conditions in Lebanon and hoping that the situation will improve back home. Procedures that clarify refugees’ legal status are making return more plausible for some. Why does it matter? While even a small number of successful repatriations represents positive news, conditions are too dangerous for mass organised returns. Yet the Syrian government and some Lebanese political factions increasingly insist that it is time for large-scale returns to begin. What should be done? Donors should plan for many refugees to stay for many years, and provide support to help Lebanon meet Syrians’ needs, ease the burden on Lebanon’s economy, and reduce friction between refugees and their Lebanese hosts. The Lebanese government can take additional administrative steps to ease voluntary returns.
Topic:: Government, Refugees, Syrian War, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

255. The Mechichi government: Will it resolve the Tunisian crisis or deepen it?

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Tunisian President Kais Saied tapped Hichem Mechichi to form a new government, following the resignation of Prime Minister Elyas Fakhfakh, whose government lasted a brief, though stormy, five months marred by allegations of conflict of interest and a vote of no-confidence.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

256. The French initiative: technocratic fixes for Lebanon’s chronic crises

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Major Lebanese factions are urgently trying to fulfill French demands for the formation of a technocratic government that opens the door for international aids and alleviates public anger and increasing foreign isolation.
Topic:: Government, Bilateral Relations, Crisis Management, and Technocracy
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, France, and Lebanon

257. Uzbekistan’s New Parliament: Real Reform or Just the Will of the ‘President’s Men’?

Author:: Zaki Shaikh
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The first meeting of the Senate of Uzbekistan’s Oliy Majlis took place in Tashkent January 22, 2020 to carry out its functions for the new term until 21 December 2024. In his keynote speech, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev congratulated the senators on this high status, while the new council includes representatives from diverse professional fields. He also argued it was “imperative to strengthen the role of the Upper House of Oliy Majlis in delivering an atmosphere of the irreconcilable fight against corruption and crime in general in society, as well as boost control over the activities of government bodies aimed at enhancing the role of women in society.” In Uzbekistan, political parties are traditionally seen to serve a symbolic function with their main mission being to mobilize and maintain support for a strong presidential system. Harnessing popular support for the poll could be seen as a crucial step in Mirziyoyev’s strategy of building support in the run up to the next presidential elections, which will be due in Uzbekistan in 2021. This aim will remain a higher priority compared to the pursuit of political transformation, which could allow the new parliament evolve as an autonomous institution and the democracy to mature. This first part of this paper explains the significance of the parliamentary elections held in Uzbekistan on 22 December 2019. The second part brings to the readers’ attention a range of reactions and responses on how the campaign, polling and outcome was seen by voters, party representatives and election observers. The third and final part of the report will conclude with the findings and recommendations of the observers in addition to some projections of how the conduct and outcome of the election may affect the future course of the country’s politics.
Topic:: Corruption, Government, Reform, and Elections
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Uzbekistan

258. Ethiopia’s Challenging Path to the 2020 Ballots

Author:: Anwar A. Bashir
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Since Abiy become the new prime minister of Ethiopia, Ethiopian politics has taken a new turn. He has released political prisoners, promoted media freedom and increased inclusion of women into the political arena. He has also invited the opposition to the discussion table, and reduced tension in the 18-year feud between Ethiopia and Eritrea. As a result, some politically-oriented Ethiopians believe Abiy has taken exquisite and peerless actions. There are also several reprehensible issues, which have started under his tenure. Communal violence has peaked whilst agreements with opposition groups was met with skepticism. Moreover, the number of internally displaced people (IDPs) in Ethiopia has reached a zenith due to the ethnic violence, for which human rights organizations have heavily criticized Ethiopia’s leadership. Several political analysts note that Abiy’s transformations are only a veneer, because his agreement with oppositions groups are yet to be implemented, especially with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), the oldest opposition in the country. This skepticism from the opposition has resulted in a new coalition party aimed at undermining the incumbent government in the upcoming Ethiopian 2020 election. Ogaden Liberation Front (ONLF), the second oldest opposition has complained of mistreatment by the leadership of the Somali region. Outspoken opposition politician Lidetu Ayalew of the Ethiopian Democratic Party has asserted, “Ethiopia as a nation is not ready to hold general parliamentary elections.” On the other hand, Abiy disbanded the longest ruling party in the country, the EPRDF, an action that has resulted in a widening dichotomy within his inner-circle. Jawar, an Oromo media tycoon, has tremendous support from the youth, especially since the Oromo region has boycotted Abiy’s policies. With all these various issues and considerations, there is much anticipation as to how the upcoming elections will unfold.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea

259. Migration Trends in Eastern Europe during COVID-19

Author:: Iulia Joja, Gonul Tol, Adam Eberhardt, and Holger Fabian Sahl
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: COVID-19 has highlighted the vulnerabilities of refugees and migrants around the world, many of whom have been caught in transit as governments shut down borders. The virus is also placing increasing strain on migration pressure points, while enabling new migration trends to emerge. This has been particularly evident in Eastern Europe. Thousands of refugees gathered at the Turkey-Greece border at the beginning of the crisis, hoping to cross European Union borders. Meanwhile, many Ukrainian migrants living and working in Poland are leaving the EU to reach their homes and families. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a virtual panel in collaboration with the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) in Poland. The event will focus on the challenges facing refugees and migrants in Eastern Europe during COVID-19, as well as the response of governments and the European Union. What are the economic, political and security implications for the region? Are policymakers considering refugees in their COVID-19 preparations? Is the pandemic fueling anti-refugee sentiment in countries like Poland and Turkey? What is the role of the European Union in coordinating a regional response, and is it delivering?
Topic:: Government, Migration, European Union, Refugees, Displacement, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Eastern Europe, Greece, and Poland

260. Unintended and Undesired Consequences: The Impact of OECD Pillar I and II Proposals on Small Open Economies

Author:: Matthias Bauer
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Corporate tax laws vary significantly between different jurisdictions. Over the past four decades, governments globally competed for business activity by lowering statutory and effective corporate tax rates. Many governments provide special tax incentives for businesses to invest and expand employment. Special economic zones often grant full corporate tax exemptions to stimulate commercial development. Corporate income tax incentives for research and development activities are common across countries’ corporate tax codes reflecting governments’ desire to stimulate innovation and business development. While corporate tax competition is common government practice in the world economy, the OECD currently aims to curb international corporate tax competition. The OECD’s corporate tax reform proposals officially aim to address “corporate tax avoidance” and “unfairness in taxation”. The policy debate is driven by some governments’ motivation to increase revenues from taxes on corporate income. Economic impact assessments of the OECD’s current Pillar I and II proposals are still scarce. Individual governments have so far failed to conduct impact assessments or are hesitant to make their assessments available to the general public. The OECD’s secretariat expects additional tax revenues of 100bn USD annually, which are said to be evenly distributed among the 137 countries comprising the Inclusive Framework. The narrow focus on changes in governments’ revenues and the static nature of the OECD’s analysis is in various respects misleading. This paper highlights that the proposed reforms would shift taxing powers (tax sovereignty) and economic activity away from small open economies to the world’s largest countries, of which most (currently) apply very high statutory corporate tax rates. The implementation of Pillar I and II proposals would pave the way for a global tax redistribution framework transferring financial funds away from governments that embrace free international trade and investment to the many of the world’s worst-performing governments with respect to economic openness, acceptance of the rule of law, corruption, state interventionism, and the recognition of basic human rights (e.g. Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and Russia). Conversely, the OECD’s proposed corporate tax reforms would punish the world’s best performing economies with regard to economic freedoms, trade and investment openness and the rule of law (e.g. Estonia, the Czech Republic, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland, including small city and island states, such as Hong Kong, Luxembourg and Singapore). The reforms proposed by the OECD would have a significant impact on how much and where multinational enterprises would have to pay corporate income tax in the future. The proposed measures would therefore impact where large companies produce and invest in the future. Continued tax competition would contribute to a narrowing of international corporate tax rate differentials up to the 12.5% minimum tax threshold level proposed by the OCED. The narrowing of tax rate differentials between today’s high-tax jurisdictions, of which most are very large countries, and today’s low-tax jurisdictions would direct international and domestic investments and investment-induced tax revenues away from small countries. Estimates show that inward FDI in today’s high-tax countries would increase and outward FDI would decrease. In a symmetrical way, inward FDI in today’s low-tax countries would decrease and outward FDI would increase. Overall, the shift in effective taxing powers would undermine small countries’ relative attractiveness to international businesses and, on top of that, would induce domestic businesses to relocate to larger countries with the gravity of larger markets. Contrary to claims made by the OECD, the implementation of Pillar I and II proposals would not improve the global allocation of capital. Global trade and investment flows would still be subject to tax competition and prevalent trade and investment barriers. The OECD’s current proposals would likely incentivise the governments of large countries to maintain long-standing barriers to trade and investment. The economic gravity of large countries may even incentivise large country governments to erect additional barriers that would restrict market access for companies from small open economies. For small open economies that are home to research- and knowledge-intensive multinational companies, the OECD’s proposed tax reforms would undermine future investments in R&D, innovation and business model development, with adverse implications for existing research clusters, education systems and high value-added jobs. Policymakers should reconsider whether taxes on corporate income actually contribute to governments’ overall social and economic policy objectives, such as economic development, redistribution and fairness in taxation. Replacing tax systems that include taxes on corporate income by systems that rely more or exclusively on direct taxes on labour income, capital income and consumption (VAT/sales taxes) would increase transparency about the distributional effects of taxation and significantly improve governments’ tax manoeuvrability in response to citizens’ preferences for fairer taxation. A regime change towards greater use of VAT/sales taxes would also have a positive impact on global capital allocation. Companies would no longer have to pay attention to corporate tax rate differentials, while governments would have additional invectives to embrace foreign trade and investment, materialising in lower barriers to trade and investment and a more efficient allocation of global capital respectively.
Topic:: Government, International Political Economy, Business, Tax Systems, R&D, Corporate Tax, and OECD
Political Geography:: Global Focus

261. Optimal Contracting with Altruistic Agents: A Structural Model of Medicare Payments for Dialysis Drugs

Author:: Martin Gaynor, Nirav Mehta, and Seth Richards-Shubik
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP), Western University
Abstract:: We study physician agency and optimal payment policy in the context of an expensive medication used in dialysis care. Using Medicare claims data we estimate a structural model of treatment decisions, in which physicians differ in their altruism and marginal costs, and this heterogeneity is unobservable to the government. In a novel application of nonlinear pricing methods, we theoretically characterize the optimal unrestricted contract in this screening environment with multidimensional heterogeneity. We combine these results with the estimated model to construct the optimal contract and simulate counterfactual outcomes. The optimal contract is a flexible fee-for-service contract, which pays for reported treatments but uses variable marginal payments instead of constant reimbursement rates, resulting in substantial health improvements and reductions in costs. Our structural approach also yields important qualitative findings, such as rejecting the optimality of any linear contract, and may be employed more broadly to analyze a variety of applications.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Health, Health Care Policy, Human Capital, Productivity, and Medicare
Political Geography:: United States

262. Public Transfers and Inequality in China

Author:: Wang Feng
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: On October 7, 2020, Wang Feng, Professor of Sociology at UC Irvine joined Columbia's Qin Gao, Professor of Social Policy and Social Work and director of the China Center for Social Policy for an event: "Public Transfers and Inequality in China." With expanded fiscal capacity and rising concerns over economic inequality, the Chinese government in the last decade and a half has vastly rebuilt and expanded its social welfare regime. Using the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodology and both micro-level survey data and macro-level government statistics, this study examines the distribution of public transfers in education, health care and pension across generations and income groups in 2014 and compare it with those in 2010. While per capita public transfers in absolute terms remained in favor of higher-income groups and the elderly in 2014, as in 2010, the gap in receiving public transfers between the rich and the poor was reduced notably in this short time period. Public transfers also became more progressive in relative terms, with the bottom income group receiving much higher public transfers relative to their per capita household income than the wealthier groups. These results reveal that although the unequal distribution of public transfers continues and it in part results from the fragmented program design and the legacies of socialist inequalities, China’s expanded social welfare programs have contributed to narrowing the vast income inequality in this country.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Inequality, and Welfare
Political Geography:: China and Asia

263. Social Protection under Authoritarianism: Health Politics and Policy in China

Author:: Xian Huang
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: On October 14, 2020, Xian Huang, Assistant Professor of Political Sciencee at Rutgers University joined Qin Gao, Professor of Social Policy and Social Work and director of the China Center for Social Policy for an event: "Social Protection under Authoritarianism: Health Politics and Policy in China." Why would an authoritarian regime expand social welfare provision in the absence of democratization? Yet China, the world's largest and most powerful authoritarian state, has expanded its social health insurance system at an unprecedented rate, increasing enrollment from 20 percent of its population in 2000 to 95 percent in 2012. Significantly, people who were uninsured, such as peasants and the urban poor, are now covered, but their insurance is less comprehensive than that of China's elite. With the wellbeing of 1.4 billion people and the stability of the regime at stake, social health insurance is now a major political issue for Chinese leadership and ordinary citizens. In this book talk, Xian Huang analyzes the transformation of China's social health insurance in the first decade of the 2000s, addressing its expansion and how it is distributed. Drawing from government documents, filed interviews, survey data, and government statistics, she reveals that Chinese leaders have a strategy of "stratified expansion," perpetuating a particularly privileged program for the elites while developing an essentially modest health provision for the masses. She contends that this strategy effectively balances between elites and masses to maximize the regime's prospects of stability.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, Health, Authoritarianism, and Political stability
Political Geography:: China and Asia

264. Is the Coronavirus Catalyzing New Civic Collaborations for Open Government?

Author:: Abigail Bellows and Nada Zohdy
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The pandemic is spurring elite and grassroots civic actors to cooperate more, but the gulf between them remains wide. Civic actors must seize the opportunity for reform on open government issues. From Africa to Latin America to Europe, the coronavirus pandemic has generated a surge in public demand for government transparency and accountability. To seize this window for reform, elite and grassroots civic actors concerned with open governance must overcome the cleavage that has long existed between them. Thus far, the pandemic has catalyzed some new civic collaborations, but not at the scale or depth needed to seize that window. In general, civil society groups report feeling more isolated during the pandemic. In some places, the urgency of tackling open government issues during the pandemic has helped overcome that isolation by deepening partnerships among existing networks. But in other places, those partnerships have yet to take shape, and new alliances are less likely to form without the benefit of face-to-face interactions. Even the partnerships that have crystallized or deepened do not appear to be changing the fundamental roles of elite and grassroots civic actors. It is possible that this shift may happen over time. Or it may be that the pandemic alone is not enough to dislodge structural barriers to deeper cooperation. The pandemic has dramatically changed the operations of elite and grassroots actors alike. The impact of those changes on collaboration between the two depends on preexisting levels of technological capacity. In places with limited connectivity, the pandemic has exacerbated the digital divide, adversely affecting grassroots actors. Meanwhile, in places with good connectivity, technology is enabling broader (though shallower) participation, laying the groundwork for more elite-grassroots collaboration. Although many civil society groups are struggling financially during the pandemic, those effects are mitigated to some degree by continuing donor interest in the open government sector. This is encouraging, as coalition building requires dedicated, flexible resources. Finally, it is a more dangerous time to be working on open government issues in general, and grassroots actors bear disproportionate risks in doing so. This underscores the need for more vertical alliances to mitigate civic space threats.
Topic:: Civil Society, Government, Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

265. How Southern Syria Has Been Transformed Into a Regional Powder Keg

Author:: Armenak Tokmajyan
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: In southern Syria, the regime, opposition, foreign powers, and local groups navigate a contentious zone of conflict. Any shift in this delicate balance could mean yet another escalation. Syria’s conflict has transformed the country’s southern border region into a zone of regional contention. The status quo there, largely forged and maintained by Russia since 2018, aims to prevent expanded control by the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Iranian and pro-Iranian military forces, which could trigger a regional confrontation. The south will remain a volatile area, probably for years, and its fate will be affected by regional politics, not the government’s will.
Topic:: Government, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Syria

266. Playing Politics: International Security Sector Assistance and the Lebanese Military’s Changing Role

Author:: Hijab Shah and Melissa Dalton
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Following the August Beirut port explosion, the Lebanese Armed Forces must rebuild trust with the civilian population. The LAF can serve as a critical pillar in Lebanese government efforts to strengthen national security and identity in the midst of the crisis, in light of security sector assistance from the United States and other Western partners. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and Lebanon more broadly, is one of the largest recipients of foreign assistance in the Middle East. The United States and allied governments have sought to build the capabilities and professionalism of the LAF since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, focusing primarily on counterterrorism and border security. The LAF stood in stark contrast to other Lebanese security services in their restraint vis-à-vis the civilian population during the 2019 protests. However, recent reported violent incidents against civilians, ambiguity of the role of police forces, and concerns about both recovery efforts following the August 2020 port explosion in Beirut and extended powers under the state of emergency established by the Lebanese parliament have raised international concerns about the role of Lebanon’s security services, including the LAF. The LAF has a critical role to play in stabilizing Lebanon through a multi-faceted crisis, but will need to take concrete steps to bolster its professionalism. Lebanon’s modern politics have long been defined by confessionalism, a reality that persists even as the country is engulfed in crisis. International assistance to the LAF over the last fourteen years had intended to support the LAF as a legitimate national institution transcending confessions and supporting a broader sense of Lebanese security and identity. In the midst of the ongoing crisis in Lebanon, political turmoil at the helm of the country, and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, there is an important opportunity for the international community to support a new path for governance in the country—as shaped and envisioned by its populace. This opportunity hinges upon leveraging existing channels of support to the LAF and building in conditionality mechanisms that hold the LAF accountable for its actions, while continuing to promote a clear articulation of priorities for the LAF and a plan to improve military effectiveness through policy and doctrine; training and equipment, education, and exercises; operations; and institutional capacity building.
Topic:: Security, Government, Politics, International Security, Military Affairs, and Identity
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

267. Two Paths to Dominance: Military Businesses in Turkey and Egypt

Author:: Zeinab Abul-Magd, İsmet Akça, and Shana Marshall
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Egyptian and Turkish military businesses have used their institutional privileges to dominate their respective economies, but they have key differences. Turkey’s military businesses are centrally managed while Egypt’s use multiple complex conglomerates. In recent years, Turkish and Egyptian military institutions have followed divergent paths in their respective states. After many decades of full or partial control over the government, the Turkish military today is largely marginalized in politics. By contrast, after periods of exclusion from power, the Egyptian military is now in full control of the state. Despite these differences, both military institutions are powerful economic actors within their states. They have developed extensive civilian economic enterprises over the decades, dominating important sectors by capitalizing on their political influence, legal and regulatory privileges unique to their enterprises, and opportunities provided by market liberalization.
Topic:: Government, Economy, Business, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Egypt

268. Service Delivery with Wanton Protests in Megalopolises, South Africa

Author:: Chuks Ede and Nokukhanya Noqiniselo Jili
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: One of the bequests of the current democratic dispensation in South Africa is the choice by the citizenry to express their feelings without let or hindrance. Since 1994, the people of South Africa have recouped much power as to expressing their grievances towards their government in some of the worst viciously known manners ever recorded among black Africans within the continent-. Since recent times, South Africans have aggravated their protest revolts over what they perceive as government’s failure in the delivery of vital (basic) services, such as electricity, water and sanitation, with some other protests flanking on the provision of quality higher education at affordable cost or possibly no cost at all. With incidents of violent protests almost becoming frequent occurrences, the main aim of this article is to explore the main question that is still remaining “Do South African mega cities really stand to lose much more for not doing enough for their constituencies”? Attempts at providing answers to this question have resulted in an in-depth reviewing of literature into the antecedents of service delivery protests in South Africa. The article reveals that the cost of unaccountability by the failure of megalopolises’ authorities to render adequate municipal services to their people, outweighs by far the very cost of remedying the situational consequences accruing therefrom. Therefore, South African cosmopolitan authorities must be able to deliver based on the expectations of their masses who elect them into power; they also need to put adequate security measures in forceful place to clampdown on civilian protestors in their megalopolises.
Topic:: Government, Social Movement, Democracy, and Protests
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

269. China’s Emerging Disaster Diplomacy: What It Means for Southeast Asia

Author:: Lina Gong
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Chinese government formed two new bodies in 2018 that have been expected to improve China’s response to natural hazards and humanitarian emergencies in other countries. What are the implications for Southeast Asia, where the risk and threat of different types of disaster persist?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Government, Risk, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

270. Beyond COVID-19: Global Priorities Against Future Contagion

Author:: Jose Montesclaros
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Given the credible threat of disease re-emergence and evolution, governments today should allocate resources to preventing future novel diseases, even as they face ‘wartime conditions’ in battling COVID-19.
Topic:: Government, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Global Focus

271. Cushioning Local Governments From The Impact of COVID-19

Author:: Jonas Mbabazi, Fred Kasalirwe, Phoebe Atukunda, and Walter Akena
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This policy brief presents proposals that will cushion local governments from the impact of COVID-19. Undeniably, responding to Covid-19 challenges at any level is associated with heavy demands on human, financial and logistical resources. Globally, Covid-19 emergence response is multi-sectorial to enable a holistic solution to the concomitant challenges. District councils, a creation of the Local Government Act are mandated to oversee health services. Other than frontline health workers, each district has a community-based services department with officers’ in-charge of probation and social welfare, social rehabilitation, children and youth affairs, gender, disability and elderly, culture, labour and many others. Since the mandate of personnel in this department is to operate in communities, these should be enlisted to respond and manage the community-component of Covid-19.
Topic:: Government, Local, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

272. Step by Step Guidelines for Making Ordinances and Bylaws for Local Governments in Uganda

Author:: Onesmus Mugyenyi and Dickens Kagarura
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: Law making process by local governments is a challenging task in Uganda largely due limited skills at the local government level. the publication of these guidelines, therefore, is intended to simplify the process of law making by providing step by step procedure of making ordinances by district councils and byelaws by lower local governments. These guidelines are based on the Local Government Act, and the Handbook on Making Ordinances and Byelaws in Uganda (Second Edition-2010) by the Uganda Law Reform Commission.
Topic:: Government, Governance, Law, and Local
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

273. The Israeli Governmental Conduct in Advancing Cooperation with Arab States

Author:: Ksenia Svetlova and Mor Yahalom
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Cooperation can yield stability, continued development and strengthened ties between states. Broad, fruitful Israeli cooperation with Arab states will open many economic, security, intelligence, energy, tourism, and medical opportunities, with the potential for more to come. Therefore, this goal must be identified and pursued. This paper is intended to enrich the theoretical and practical knowledge of Israel’s regional cooperation and provide background for understanding and assessing the variety of existing practices that Israel employs, on the governmental level, to advance regional cooperation and implement it. The paper details the various Israeli ministries and agencies tasked with managing and developing cooperation with Arab states, the division of responsibility among them and the practices they employ. It also identifies current opportunities and characterizes the challenges hampering and delaying potential cooperation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

274. Sovereign debt restructuring: The centrality of the IMF's role

Author:: Sean Hagan
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Over the past 40 years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has played a central role in the sovereign debt restructuring process. If the COVID-19 pandemic leads to a significant wave of sovereign debt distress, this role will be closely scrutinized. The paper analyzes how IMF policies have evolved to shape the incentives of sovereigns and their creditors at each stage of the sovereign debt restructuring process. It also identifies a number of issues that the IMF will likely have to address as a result of the pandemic, including (1) assessment of debt sustainability in a macroeconomic environment of considerable uncertainty, (2) treatment of official bilateral creditors, and (3) potential benefits—and challenges—of introducing additional incentives to maximize creditor participation in any debt restructuring.
Topic:: Debt, Emerging Markets, Government, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, Macroeconomics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

275. Public procurement in law and practice

Author:: Erica Bosio, Simeon Djankov, Edward Glaeser, and Andrei Shleifer
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper examines a new dataset of laws and practices governing public procurement, as well as procurement outcomes, in 187 countries. The authors measure regulation as restrictions on the discretion of the procuring agents. They find that laws and practices are highly correlated with each other across countries, and better practices are correlated with better outcomes, but laws themselves are not correlated with outcomes. To shed light on this puzzle, they present a model of procurement in which both regulation and public sector capacity determine the efficiency of procurement. In the model, regulation is effective in countries with low public sector capacity and detrimental in countries with high public sector capacity because it inhibits the socially optimal exercise of discretion. The paper finds evidence broadly consistent with this prediction: Regulation of procurement improves outcomes but only in countries with low public sector capacity.
Topic:: Government, Law, Regulation, and Procurement
Political Geography:: Global Focus

276. A new policy toolkit is needed as countries exit COVID-19 lockdowns

Author:: Olivier Blanchard, Thomas Philippon, and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The measures that most governments took in response to the sudden collapse in economic activity during the COVID-19 lockdowns nearly exclusively focused on protecting vulnerable workers and firms. These measures included unemployment benefits, grants, transfers, loans at low rates, and tax deferrals. As lockdowns are lifted, governments must shift policies toward supporting the recovery and design measures that will limit the pain of adjustment while preserving productive jobs and firms. This Policy Brief explores how such measures can be designed, with particular emphasis on Europe and the United States. The authors propose a combination of unemployment benefits to help workers, wage subsidies and partially guaranteed loans to help firms, and debt restructuring procedures for small and medium-sized companies handicapped by excessive legacy debt from the crisis.
Topic:: Government, Labor Issues, European Union, Unemployment, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America

277. Geopolitics and the Constitution in Light of the Democratic Constitutional State

Author:: Guilherme Sandoval Goes
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article is the result of research carried out in the postdoctoral stage of the Postgraduate Program in Aeronautical Sciences at the University of Aeronautics (PPGCA), whose theme was “Geopolitics, Culture and Law: Epistemological dialogues needed in times of postmodernity” Thus, it collimates to examine the scientific connections that unite geopolitics and law, disciplines that overlap in such a way that they end up guaranteeing fundamental rights for ordinary citizens, aiming to analyze the geopolitical control of law from the influence of neoliberal geopolitics on constitutionalism. of the countries of late modernity, as is the case of Brazil, thus it was possible to demonstrate the influence of real factors of world power in the legislative process of the countries of the Global South of neoliberal globalization, whose leadership is being disputed by the United States and China.
Topic:: International Relations, Globalization, Government, Governance, Law, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, South America, North America, United States of America, and Global South

278. The Spread of the Novel Coronavirus Infection in Russia and the Government's Countermeasures

Author:: Hironori Fushita
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: The spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in Russia has been slower than in other European countries, but the number of infected people has surged since late March, especially in Moscow, and has exploded since April. As of April 14, the number of people infected with the novel coronavirus in Russia was 201,122 (up 2,774 from the previous day), with 1,694 recovering and 170 dead1. The following article will provide an overview of the spread of the novel coronavirus infection in Russia and the government's countermeasures, as well as the impact of this infection on the future of Russian politics
Topic:: Government, Politics, Governance, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

279. China's Situation after the National People's Congress

Author:: Li Hao
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: The National People's Congress (NPC) was held in China from May 22 to 28. The 2020 NPC, originally scheduled to open on March 5 as usual, was postponed due to the novel coronavirus outbreak. No new date was announced at the time of postponement and, despite rumours of a meeting in late March or mid-April, in the end it was not held until late May. The session was shorter than usual, and participants underwent PCR testing. Most delegates attended the opening ceremony wearing masks, but the NPC leadership and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Politburo members seated in the two front rows did not wear masks. Before this year's NPC got underway, the key agenda items were whether to declare victory in the battle against the coronavirus and what economic growth targets to establish. However, other issues not initially anticipated, such as the introduction of the Hong Kong version of the National Security Law, also came to garner attention. This paper briefly reviews and analyses issues that were the focus of deliberations at the NPC.
Topic:: Government, Economic Growth, Domestic Politics, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

280. Erratic Behaviour of the United Nations and Global Governance in. Africa: The State as a Smokescreen for World Security

Author:: Agbo Uchechukwu Johnson, Nsemba Edward Lenshie, and Ndukwe Onyinyechi Kelechi
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: State’s choice for human beings emerged when they realized that wild freedom in the “state of nature” where power is right, failed to achieve life and property independence and protection. Human beings were forced to capitulate for the common good to the abstract government. In what Hobbes (1588-1678) called the “social contract”, the state acknowledged this obligation to be governed by a leader of an all-powerful society. In his Second Treatise of Government (1689), John Locke (1632-1704) also agreed with Hobbes’ notion of a social contract, based on the premise that human beings are born free. Individuals enjoy a natural right to life, freedom and the freedom to own or possess estates.
Topic:: Government, Political Theory, Philosophy, State, and Nation-State
Political Geography:: Africa, Brazil, and Global Focus

281. An analysis of optimal devolved government size for growth: Armey curve in Kenya

Author:: Naftaly Mose
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The recent global initiative towards federalized spending has been gradually justified on the basis that decentralization of resources to sub-national governments level are likely to deliver greater efficiency in the delivery of public goods and services and consequently stimulate economic activities at devolved units (Martinez-Vasquez and McNab 2006). The devolution trend in unindustrialized nations is reinforced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB), which considers expenditure decentralization as a key pillar of its economic growth and poverty eradication strategy (World Bank 2016). But, attention to expenditure transfer has been mainly inspired by local political reasons (Mwiathi 2017). Like the case of Kenya in 2007/2008. The 2007/2008 post-election violence saw the introduction of the new governance system, which entrenched devolved systems (GoK 2010). In a number of nations including Kenya, a devolved system of governance refers to devolution. Essentially devolution is one form of fiscal decentralization. However, devolution is more extensive and includes transfer of both economic and political powers from central government to devolved units (Ezcurra and Rodríguez-Pose 2010).
Topic:: Government, International Political Economy, Poverty, World Bank, Economic Growth, Economic Development, and IMF
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

282. Eight Heads of States versus Coronavirus: A Leadership Comparative Question – Part 2

Author:: Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: It seems to be a three-way failure of leadership, national public policies, as well as international institutions, and should not be overshadowed by mere crisis management. By April 12, the infection cases escalated to 1,781,383 with 108,864 deaths worldwide.
Topic:: Government, Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

283. Tunisia’s Fragile Democracy: Decentralization, Institution-Building and the Development of Marginalized Regions – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:: Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Although Tunisia has made great strides over the past seven years, its democratization process remains fragile. Disillusionment with and distrust in the government, particularly high among the young, also manifest themselves in low voter turnout. Young voters were strikingly absent in the 2014 parliamentary elections, and in the first municipal elections in May 2018, only 33.7 percent of Tunisians cast their votes. To a great extent, this disillusionment stems from the various, persistent socio-economic problems which had led to the uprisings and the ouster of the former autocratic regime in 2011. Especially in Tunisia’s historically marginalized regions, these issues remain a key challenge.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Democracy, Fragile States, and Decentralization
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, and Tunisia

284. A New Risk to the EU from Coronavirus Viktor Orbán’s Hungary

Author:: András Rácz
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Political leaders could abuse the coronavirus crisis to undermine democracy. Europe’s biggest risk is Hungary. In late March, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán could use his two-thirds majority in parliament to push through a law that would empower him to rule by decrees with no specified time limit. If he succeeds, it will undermine the European Union’s core principles, making the EU even more fragmented and difficult to manage once the pandemic is over.
Topic:: Government, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Coronavirus, and Pandemic
Political Geography:: Europe and Hungary

285. An International Partnership for Sudan’s Transition: Mobilizing Support, Preventing Instability

Author:: Gerrit Kurtz
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Germany has helped lead efforts to mobilize international support for Sudan’s transition process since President al-Bashir was ousted last year. To be successful, Germany and its partners must deliver on their promises to support the transitional government’s economic reforms with substantial aid. They should keep Sudan’s diverse partners aligned while broadening their outreach. Sudan is thus a test case for how much political capital Germany will spend on its stated objective of conflict prevention.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Government, Partnerships, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Sudan, and Germany

286. Has U.S. Government Angst over the China Danger Diminished?

Author:: Robert Sutter
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The so-called “truce” in the trade war with the signing of the phase one U.S.-China trade agreement on January 15 comes amid indicators that the intense U.S. government consensus pushback against a wide range of perceived challenges posed by China may be subsiding.
Topic:: Government, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

287. Considering a Soil Initiative for Africa

Author:: David Nielson
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Considering a Soil Initiative for Africa JANUARY 31, 2020 By: David Nielson In Sub-Saharan Africa, 65 percent of arable land suffers from soil degradation. The most extensive data on soils in Africa is grounded in soil mapping done in the 1950s and 1960s—60 to 70 years ago—which suggests that the problem could be even worse than currently known. This destruction is stifling agricultural productivity and income growth while prohibiting the soil from carrying out its climate control functions such as carbon sequestration and water filtration. This paper diagnoses the challenges faced by governments, international organizations and research institutions in mitigating and reversing the decline of soil quality in Africa. It highlights the dearth of human capital and resources that undermines these efforts and employs the lessons learned towards outlining a framework that is based on global partnership, stronger farmer engagement and robust investment. The paper argues for a new soil initiative that is organized around workstreams that prioritize establishing soil information systems, understanding the economic costs and consequences of soil degradation, and enhancing human and institutional capacity towards soil science. This multipronged approach will reinvigorate the fight against soil degradation and destruction both globally and on the African continent.
Topic:: Agriculture, Environment, Government, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

288. Bad company: How dark money threatens Sudan’s transition

Author:: Jean-Baptiste Gallopin
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Sudan’s transition to constitutional rule is failing: the reform of political institutions has not begun, while the country faces an intensifying economic crisis, a dramatic decline in living conditions, and a flare-up in localised violence. The civilian wing of the Sudanese state is bankrupt but unwilling to confront powerful generals, who control a sprawling network of companies and keep the central bank and the Ministry of Finance on life support to gain political power. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia appear to be positioning a paramilitary leader known as Hemedti as Sudan’s next ruler, but the military is fiercely hostile towards him. Western countries and international institutions have let the civilian wing of the government down: they failed to provide the financial and political support that would allow Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok to hold his own against the generals. The transition will only succeed if the government stabilises the economy and civilians work hard to tilt the balance of power away from the military and towards themselves. Europeans should use their relationships with Hamdok, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia to establish civilian control of the generals’ networks of companies.
Topic:: Corruption, Government, Reform, Finance, and Transition
Political Geography:: Sudan and North Africa

289. Brief on COVID-19: National governments, not the EU, sleepwalked into the corona crisis

Author:: Christian Kvorning Lassen
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: In his brief, Christian Kvorning Lassen writes that on January 26, the EU’s Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) warned Member States that Covid-19 infection spread in Europe would be probable and considerable. The EU offered in January to support Member States with purchasing of medical equipment, test kits, protective gear, and general support. Member States refused the EU’s help in January, stating that their health care systems were adequately prepared for the Virus.
Topic:: Government, Crisis Management, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

290. Devising an Indian policy on Sanctions for Pakistan

Author:: Ambika Khanna
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:: India must consider new strategies that can be put in place to manage Pakistan's ongoing military aggression and security threat. One policy tool that has been used effectively by many countries but remains unexplored by India is the imposition of sanctions. This paper analyses the feasibility of imposing sanctions on Pakistan and the strategies India should consider to execute this effectively. It makes recommendations on how to establish a legal framework, amend existing laws, include Indian stakeholders with business interests in Pakistan, get government departments to collaborate on implementation, and considers diplomatic measures India can undertake.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and India

291. Tangled Web: The Role of Oil, Gas and Mining in Funding Regional Governments in Indonesia

Author:: David Manley, Rani Febrianti, and Hari Subhash
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Indonesia’s system of funding provincial, district and city governments is one of the most complex in the world, and has undergone substantial expansion over the last two decades. While the system allows thousands of authorities to function, it is failing in three respects: inequality of funding between regions persists, funding for some governments is unpredictable and volatile and some oil- and gas-rich regions have not sufficiently prepared for a possible future with much lower revenues. Indonesia’s planning ministry, Bappenas, should investigate these issues further focusing particularly on clarifying policy objectives, ensuring more reliable funding, supporting oil- and gas-rich regions in becoming more resilient to a long-term decline in prices and clarifying the published rules around the funding system.
Topic:: Civil Society, Government, Oil, Gas, Media, Mining, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

292. Holding to Account: How Publishing Facts about Foreign Corruption Creates Accountability

Author:: Aaron Sayne and Melanie D. Reed
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: The complex, secretive nature of foreign corruption calls for a collaborative, all-hands-on-deck approach. Corrupt actors go to great lengths to hide their wrongdoing, using layers of legal entities, transactions, secrecy jurisdictions and middlemen. No one response can detect and prevent every bad act, and different anticorruption actors have their own unique interests, mandates and abilities. In many cases, they may struggle even to learn the facts of what went wrong. Prosecuting a corruption crime generates reams of valuable information. This can include the names of bribe takers and payers; the industries, countries and public institutions involved; how the proceeds of crime changed hands; and who facilitated or turned a blind eye. Who should get to see this information? Thought leaders on anticorruption, from Transparency International (TI) to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s Working Group on Bribery (OECD WGB), have long endorsed greater transparency in foreign corruption cases. They argue, for example, that access to information raises awareness, gives guidance to anticorruption practitioners, encourages cooperation with prosecutors and boosts confidence in law enforcement. Conversely, opacity in corruption cases can weaken the deterrent value of prosecutions, open doors for prosecutorial misconduct and thwart efforts to make victims whole. These concerns are particularly keen in cases that settle via tools like deferred prosecution agreements (DPAs) or plea bargains. Many governments share evidence from corruption cases confidentially, through formal legal instruments and close working relationships. But how does public disclosure of facts from corruption cases, whether by courts or other law enforcement bodies, aid the broader fight against corruption? Put differently: At a time when enforcement of anticorruption laws remains low in many countries, could more transparency help anticorruption efforts by regulators, companies, the media, civil society and others? To answer this question, the authors of this briefing analyzed materials from foreign corruption cases that have arisen since the inception of laws banning foreign bribery. During the past four years, they also conducted over two dozen interviews with experts government, the private sector, civil society and the press. From this work, they found instances in which other anticorruption actors used published facts from court cases to do their jobs more effectively. Although they undertook this research as part of the Natural Resource Governance Institute’s (NRGI’s) programming aimed at reducing corruption risks in the oil, gas and mining sectors, they did not limit themselves to cases in the extractive industries. Accordingly, their findings and recommendations apply broadly to corruption in other sectors.
Topic:: Corruption, Government, Economy, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

293. Building a Sustainable Electric Vehicle Battery Supply Chain: Frequently Asked Questions

Author:: Patrick Heller, Ethan Elkind, and Ted Lamm
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: The global transition from fossil fuel-powered vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) will require the production of hundreds of millions of batteries. The need for such a massive deployment raises questions from the general public and critics alike about the sustainability of the battery supply chain, from mining impacts to vehicle carbon emissions. Growing demand for the mineral inputs for battery production can provide an opportunity for mineral-rich countries to generate fiscal revenues and other economic opportunities. But where extraction takes place in countries with weak governance, the benefits expected by citizens and leaders may not materialize; in some cases extraction might even exacerbate corruption, human rights abuses and environmental risks. Many EV proponents and suppliers are aware that supply chain governance problems pose a challenge to the evolution of the EV industry, but outstanding questions remain about how these challenges materialize. This brief, jointly published by UC Berkeley School of Law’s Center for Law, Energy & the Environment (CLEE) and the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) provides basic information on the EV battery supply chain and key battery minerals, such as cobalt and lithium, and addresses the following questions: What does the supply chain for EV batteries comprise? How do carbon emissions from EVs compare to traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles? What are the most significant challenges in managing the mineral extraction necessary for the EV supply chain, and what sustainability and human rights initiatives apply?
Topic:: Civil Society, Corruption, Government, Human Rights, Natural Resources, Governance, Regulation, Legislation, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Global Focus

294. What North Korea’s Coronavirus Measures Say About Its System

Author:: Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The North Korean government response to the coronavirus has been extreme, but prudent and reasonable in context. It has closed the border to China almost entirely to both goods and people though surely some transports are still getting through. No travel is allowed to or from China although there must be exceptions to this rule as well. The state (under the banner of the Red Cross, whose branch in North Korea operates as a government entity) has dispatched people around the country to inform people about the virus. No reports have been confirmed at this time of writing, but exile journalists based in South Korea have reported several deaths from the virus from North Korea. Its actions have been blunt and all-encompassing, mainly because the state lacks the necessary capacity to act differently. North Korea doesn’t have the sort of equipment required to monitor people coming from China or to test people at the pace required.
Topic:: Government, Health, Authoritarianism, Border Control, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

295. ‘Thinking big!’: Resetting Northern Australia’s national security posture

Author:: John Coyne
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This report highlights the vast economic opportunities in northern Australia and how they can contribute to our national security. The author makes the case that, while defence spending is vital to northern economies and nation building, it’s focused more on the Defence organisation’s more narrowly conceived portfolio capital investments in defence establishments and facilities rather than on much-needed broader national security and economic decisions. Instead, there’s a need for the federal government and the Northern Territory, Queensland and Western Australian governments to take a more holistic perspective on northern Australia’s critical economic and national security role. The cities of Townsville, Cairns, Darwin and Katherine are vital to our defence, but also to our financial and national security. They’re most definitely more than home bases for the ADF.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Economics, Government, and National Security
Political Geography:: Australia and Asia-Pacific

296. In the shadow of the virus Varieties of power in the COVID-19 crisis in Venezuela

Author:: Peder Østebø
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: While all states face massive challenges when responding to COVID-19, some are in a more precarious position than others. In Venezuela, the pandemic arrived at the worst possible time for its citizens. Facing one of the deepest economic crises outside of wartime in recent years, its consequences have spilled over to all aspect of social life.1 However, the timing seems to have suited the leaders of the Venezuelan regime well. Rather than constituting a threat to the stability of a regime that has lost both democratic legitimacy and the capacity to provide services and security, the government of Nicolas Maduro (2013-present) has seemingly managed to consolidate itself after several years of instability. The starting point of the discussion is an apparent paradox: how can a regime with neither legitimacy nor capacity, two commonly invoked criteria for effective crisis management, strengthen itself during a crisis such as that spurred by COVID-19? The brief presents an overview of how the Venezuelan regime has responded to COVID-19, and how the government of Nicolás Maduro has applied different strategies to consolidate a favorable political status quo. It takes as its starting point three concepts, namely “state capacity,” “legitimacy,” and “power,” all of which are frequently upheld as fundamental for understanding the varying ways in which states have responded to the pandemic. It highlights how relative power relations have shifted in recent years, and how the pandemic has contributed to skewing the balance of power further in favor of the Maduro government.
Topic:: Government, Health, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: South America, Central America, and Venezuela

297. Policy Briefs: National Minorities in Political Processes – Engagement for a Better Future

Author:: Fagan Abbasov, Orkhan Pirverdiev, Rima Marangozyan, Amaliya Babayan, Margarita Khasanshina, Lilit Karakhanyan, Zakir Aivazov, Katya Mosoyan, Varduy Kurginyan, and Heydar Aliyev
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: The Policy Paper Series include policy briefs developed within the framework of the National Minorities in Political Processes – Engagement for a Better Future project. The papers were elaborated by the ethnic minority youth from Samtskhe-Javakheti and Kvemo Kartli for whom it was their first attempt to work on an analytical document. The papers address the challenges and solutions for the engagement of ethnic minorities in the political, economic or social life of Georgia. The project was implemented by the Rondeli Foundation with the support and active participation of the OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities (OSCE HCNM). The project aims to increase the political and social inclusion of ethnic minorities and facilitate a healthy policy debate on the issues of national minorities among the political parties, thus overall contributing to good governance practices. Within the framework of the multi-component project, members of Tbilisi-based political party youth organizations, young people living in Samtskhe-Javakheti and Kvemo Kartli and active representatives of the local community attended various thematic seminars. The project also included thematic meetings of representatives of political parties and government agencies with the representatives of national minorities, the preparation of TV programs and organizing internships in political parties for young people representing ethnic minorities.
Topic:: Education, Gender Issues, Government, Minorities, Elections, Youth, Language, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

298. Stronger Together: A Strategy to Revitalize Transatlantic Power

Author:: Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, Daniela Schwarzer, Christian Mölling, and Sophia Becker
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) convened a strategy group of experts and former government officials from the United States and Europe over the past year to discuss the crisis in the transatlantic relationship and to propose a strategy to revive and strengthen it.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, Government, Science and Technology, Partnerships, Democracy, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, North America, and United States of America

299. The Rule of Law in the EU Budget: Backing Down Is Too High a Price for the EU to Pay

Author:: Milan Nič, Roderick Parkes, Siawomir Sierakowski, and Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Hungary and Poland are threatening to veto the EU’s new budgetary arrangements if other governments apply the rule of law mechanism to them. It is becoming clear, however, that the new EU financial framework, and the much-heralded recovery fund, are more vital to Eastern Europe than to Europe’s South and that time is not on the side of the former. Awareness of this fact allows for a cool assessment of the pair’s bargaining positions – and of the precedent that any hasty resolution to the crisis will set.
Topic:: Government, Budget, European Union, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

300. Poland’s New Foreign Minister: Orbiting Closer to the Center of Power

Author:: Adam Traczyk
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Zbigniew Rau, who was appointed foreign minister on August 26, will help align the trajectory of Polish diplomacy with the government’s general line. His appointment fits into the logic of a larger government reshuffle, expected this fall, which aims for a greater centralization of power. His higher standing in the governing PiS party may, however, halt the gradual loss of relevance of Poland’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and Belarus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS