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3101. Somalia's Future

Author:
Jennifer Cooke and David Henek
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
On January 17, 2007, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in collaboration with the Council on Foreign Relations, the U.S. Institute of Peace, and the Woodrow Wilson International Center, hosted a major conference in Washington, D.C., entitled "Somalia's Future: Options for Diplomacy, Assistance, and Peace Operations." The conference brought together expert observers from Mogadishu, senior U.S. policymakers, representatives from humanitarian assistance organizations, and regional analysts to convey to a U.S. audience the current situation in Somalia and to lay out the challenges facing the United States and the broader international community.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Somalia

3102. The Armenian road to democracy – Dimensions of a tortuous process

Author:
Maria Raquel Freire and Licínia Simão
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper looks at the Armenian transition towards democracy, focusing on the internal and external dimensions of the process. Internally, we consider the decision-making structure, with particular emphasis on the role of leadership, the development of political parties and changes in civil society. Externally, our attention is focused on neighbourly relations and external actors, including international organisations, particularly the European Union (EU), and its specific instrument, the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). The paper aims to shed light on the democratisation process in Armenia and the role of the EU in this process, by looking at the relationship between Brussels and Yerevan, at the instruments and strategies in operation, and at the international context in which these changes are taking place.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Armenia, and Brussels

3103. Fruit of the Poisonous Tree - Member States' Indirect Use of Extraordinary Rendition and the EU Counter-Terrorism Strategy

Author:
Florian Geyer
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Recent investigations, not least by the EP Temporary Committee, have shed light on the illegal practice of extraordinary renditions and unlawful detentions by foreign security services on European territory with the alleged involvement of certain member states, which suggests that the line between cooperation and complicity has become blurred. This paper addresses the issue of how EU member states could not resist taking advantage of extraordinary renditions and unlawful detentions and how they still profit from such practice. Recent examples of this kind of profiteering are provided, together with an assessment of their legality.
Topic:
Development, International Organization, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

3104. Political Islam in Turkey

Author:
Senem Aydin and Rusen Çakir
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Turkey differs from the Arab states studied in the CEPS–FRIDE Political Islam project in not only in having a European Union membership prospect, but also in the fact that a broadly Islamist-oriented party has been in office since 2002. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) still enjoys the primary support of pro-Islamic constituencies in Turkish society and its orientation towards the EU has not changed since its assumption of power. An overwhelming majority in the party still sees the EU as the primary anchor of Turkish democracy and modernisation despite the inferred limitations of cooperation on issues relating to the reform of Turkish secularism. Yet the growing mistrust towards the EU as a result of perceived discrimination and EU double standards is beginning to cloud positive views within the party. Decreasing levels of support for EU membership in Turkish society and the fact that explicitly Euro-sceptic positions are now coming from both the left and the right of the political spectrum suggest that the sustainability of the pro-European discourse within the party could be difficult to maintain in the longer run.
Topic:
Development, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Arabia

3105. The EU Border Management Strategy: FRONTEX and the Challenges of Irregular Immigration in the Canary Islands

Author:
Sergio Carrera
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The EU is developing a border management strategy aiming at an "integrated and global response" to the challenges posed by the phenomenon of irregular immigration through the common external borders. "The Southern maritime borders" constitute one of the main targets addressed by this strategy. On November 2006, the European Commission published a communication calling for the reinforced management of the EU's Southern maritime borders and for the maximisation of the capacities of the European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders of the Member States of the European Union – FRONTEX. This paper provides some reflections about these current policy approaches by looking at the nature, scope and practical implications of the implementation of the Integrated Border Management strategy and its relationship with a common EU immigration policy. After assessing the latest policy developments in these areas, we raise a number of questions about some of the functions and capacities carried out by FRONTEX, and present a series of vulnerabilities characterising the joint operations coordinated by this Community body taking the example of the operations HERA I, II and III in the Canary Islands (Spain).
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Migration
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

3106. Integration: An Ever-Closer Challenge

Author:
Stefano Bertozzi
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This article argues for closer integration to be a key part of the EU's migration policy. It accepts that migration is necessary for a prosperous Europe and looks at the role of the EU and how best to integrate immigrants. Countries' experiences and the need for better aligned policies among member states are examined. The European Commission's role in sharing experiences and best practices is considered, as well as the need for the many stakeholders involved to work together. Integration is a complex and delicate process, and ultimately the EU must be bolder in its promotion of integration if it is to benefit from migration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Migration
Political Geography:
Europe

3107. European Neighbourhood Policy Two Years on: Time indeed for an 'ENP Plus'

Author:
Michael Emerson, Gergana Noutcheva, and Nicu Popescu
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Conceived in 2003 and 2004, the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) has now had two years of operational experience. This initial experience has seen a sorting out of the partner states, with Action Plans drawn up for five Eastern and seven Southern partner states. We would distinguish among these 12 states between the 'willing' and the 'passive'; and among the other partner states without Action Plans between the 'reluctant' and the 'excluded'. These groupings should be the basis for stronger differentiation in the policy packages offered by the EU. In general the political context now calls for a strong reinforcement of the ENP, since the benign situation of 2004 has given way now to a more menacing one, given threats to European values bearing down on the EU from all sides. The EU institutions recognise these needs in principle, and last December the Commission advanced many valuable proposals. 'ENP plus' is a term being used by the current German Presidency, without this yet being defined in a public document in operational detail. In our view, 'ENP plus' could mean: Plus an advanced association model for the able and willing partner states, Plus a strengthening of regional-multilateral schemes, Plus an upgrading of the standard instruments being deployed, and Plus the offer of an 'ENP light' model for difficult states or non-recognised entities.
Topic:
Development and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

3108. Making the EU Citizens' Agenda Work

Author:
Elspeth Guild
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
On 5 January 2007, Elspeth Guild was invited by the European Commission Select Committee of the UK House of Lords to submit written evidence to assist that body in its scrutiny of the European Commission's annual legislative and work programme. This Policy Brief reproduces her submission in full.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Development
Political Geography:
Europe

3109. Don't blame globalisation for the squeezing of the middle class

Author:
Ángel Ubide
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Globalisation is being blamed for the squeezing of the middle class and protectionism is being offered as a solution. We argue in this paper that the increase in inequality is a long-term trend resulting from a variety of factors, including the decline in manufacturing, the reduction in the progressivity of taxation and the steady increase in asset prices, and that globalisation has only had a marginal impact on it. Protectionism will not reverse any of these trends. We discuss some policy options aimed at cushioning this increase in inequality and argue that they will likely result in expanding fiscal deficits and pressure on central banks to test the limits of growth.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, and Globalization

3110. Decision-making in the Enlarged Council of Ministers: Evaluating the Facts

Author:
Julia De Clerck-Sachsse and Sara Hagemann
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In its Communication on Enlargement Strategy and Main Challenges 2006-2007, released 8 November 2006, the European Commission concluded: “Overall, the fifth enlargement has been a considerable success” and “(t)he EU's institutions have continued to function effectively” (p. 4). In his speaking points to the press, Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn (2006) stressed two important criteria for evaluating the integration process: With respect to institutional matters, the EU's decision-making processes must remain effective and accountable, for the sake of current member states as well as in view of further enlargement. With respect to policy-making, the EU needs to be in a position, as it enlarges, to continue developing and implementing common policies in all areas. Accordingly, assessment of the impact of enlargement on EU policies is planned to take place at all key stages of the enlargement process.
Topic:
Development and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

3111. Looking for the cure-all? Targets and the EU's New Energy Strategy

Author:
Christian Egenhofer
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
On 10 January 2007, the European Commission outlined the European Union's 'energy and climate change vision' based on two principal documents: Communication on “An energy policy for Europe”, and Communication on future climate change policy for the period post-2012 when the Kyoto Protocol expires, entitled “Limiting global climate change to 2°C: The way ahead for 2020 and beyond”.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
Europe

3112. Paying for People: Financing the skilled workers needed to deliver health and education services for all

Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This is the first in a series of three papers that examines the financing of services in developing countries. This paper focuses on external assistance in the form of aid and debt cancellation. The other papers in the series will focus on internal revenues; first, receipts from taxation and then receipts from extractive industries.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Education, Health, Humanitarian Aid, International Political Economy, and Poverty

3113. Nagorno-Karabakh: Risking War

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Armenia and Azerbaijan have failed to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, even though the framework for a fair settlement has been on the table since 2005. A comprehensive peace agreement before presidential elections in both countries in 2008 is now unlikely but the two sides still can and should agree before the polls to a document on basic principles, which if necessary clearly indicates the points that are still in dispute. Without at least such an agreement and while they engage in a dangerous arms race and belligerent rhetoric, there is a risk of increasing ceasefire violations in the next few years. By about 2012, after which its oil revenue is expected to begin to decline, Azerbaijan may be tempted to seek a military solution. The international community needs to lose its complacency and do more to encourage the leaderships to prepare their societies for compromise and peace.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

3114. Winding Back Martial Law in Pakistan

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
General Pervez Musharraf imposed martial law in Pakistan on 3 November 2007. He suspended the constitution, sacked the chief justice of the Supreme Court and removed other judges of that court who declared his act illegal. Police immediately began arresting lawyers, politicians and human rights activists. Independent television channels were taken off the air and reporting restrictions imposed. Thousands have since been jailed, journalists threatened and protests by lawyers and others suppressed. Replacing dissenting judges with hand-picked appointees, and ruling by decree, Musharraf's objective is to retain personal power by gaining judicial approval for martial law, followed by the creation of a democratic façade through rigged elections. The international community should demand the immediate restoration of constitutional order, the rule of law and the legitimate judiciary, the release of political prisoners and the appointment of an impartial caretaker government to oversee free and fair elections.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

3115. Guinea: Change on Hold

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Dix mois après le déclenchement d'un mouvement de révolte populaire contre le régime du président Lansana Conté, au pouvoir depuis 23 ans, et sept mois après la formation d'un nouveau gouvernement, la Guinée est toujours dans une incertitude totale quant à son avenir immédiat. L'état de grâce dont a bénéficié le Premier ministre Lansana Kouyaté, celui qui devait conduire le « changement » exigé par le peuple, fut de courte durée. Les fissures au sein du mouvement collectif qui a ébranlé le régime au début de l'année risquent de favoriser une reconquête du pouvoir par le clan présidentiel. Pour éviter tout retour de la violence, le Premier ministre doit impérativement convaincre les citoyens guinéens de sa détermination à oeuvrer en faveur d'une véritable transition démocratique et a besoin de recevoir à cet effet un soutien actif de la Communauté économique des États d'Afrique de l'Ouest (CEDEAO) et des partenaires extérieurs, de même que de la France et des États-Unis qui ont des liens de coopération avec l'armée.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea

3116. Sri Lanka: Sinhala Nationalism and the Elusive Southern Consensus

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sinhala nationalism, long an obstacle to the resolution of Sri Lanka's ethnic conflict, is again driving political developments on the island. Nationalist parties, opposed to any significant devolution of power to Tamil areas of the north and east and to negotiations with the Tamil Tigers, help set President Mahinda Rajapaksa's agenda. The government takes a hardline stance, responding in part to opposition to the flawed 2002-2006 ceasefire and peace process. Would-be peacemakers need to better understand Sinhala nationalism, which is too often dismissed as merely irrational and racist. With little likelihood of a new formal peace process soon, the longterm challenges it poses to the conflict's resolution need to be addressed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

3117. Ethiopia and Eritrea: Stopping the Slide to War

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next several weeks is very real. A military buildup along the common border over the past few months has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military solution if hostilities restart; more likely is a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia and a dramatic humanitarian crisis. To prevent this, the international community – in particular, the UN Security Council and the U.S., which is the single most influential outsider – must act immediately to give both sides the clearest possible message that no destabilising unilateral action will be tolerated. Once the immediate danger is past, efforts should be reinvigorated to ensure that the parties comply with their international law obligations, disengage on the ground and restore the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) – in a longer time frame – to develop political and economic initiatives for resolving the fundamental problems between the old foes.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

3118. Congo: Staying Engaged after the Elections

Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 6 December 2006, Joseph Kabila was sworn in as the first democratically elected president since Congolese independence, concluding a landmark electoral process largely devoid of major violence or gross irregularities. Democratic governance is now expected to support peacebuilding and reconstruction. The new government has weak and barely functioning institutions, however, and the international community, which has given decisive support to the peace process, must continue to help it overcome serious security and political challenges. Immediate agenda items include to set up promptly a new structure to coordinate aid efforts, renew the United Nations Mission (MONUC) with a strong mandate and increase efforts to improve security throughout the country.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

3119. Options for Revenue Generation in Post Conflict Environments

Author:
Michael Carnahan
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This paper advances five proposals for policies to improve revenue generation in post-conflict environments. In the aftermath of violent conflict there often is a gap between demands for the restoration of basic public goods and services, including jobs and security, and governmental capacity to generate revenue to meet these pressing needs. Improved revenue generation is a key task for building both a sustainable state and a durable peace.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Development, and Economics

3120. Peacekeeping in Sudan: The Dynamics of Protection, Partnerships and Inclusive Politics

Author:
Ian Johnstone and Alhaji M.S. Bah
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The inter-related conflicts and peace processes in Sudan present a monumental peacekeeping challenge. The protracted crisis in Darfur has put the African Union – and the broader international community -- to a severe test. Plans for a hybrid African Union-United Nations operation there continue, but Khartoum remains opposed. Meanwhile, implementation of the north-south peace agreement is faltering, with the UN mission struggling to keep it on track in the face of indifference from both parties and frequent hostility from the north.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan