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  • Author: Stefano Guzzini
  • Publication Date: 03-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: There are two main ways to approach the general topic “International Political Economy and war”. One consists in adding a list of items to a definition of war already known. This usually includes a longer list of strategically important economic resources for which countries might go to conflict or they might need in a conflict. Some of this comes now often under the grandiose name of “geo-economics”. Another approach, however, would look what a different understanding of human motivation and the international system makes to our very understanding of war.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Economics, International Organization, War
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Stefano Guzzini
  • Publication Date: 03-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper will try to take the reader on a journey from conceptual analysis, used as a means for variable construction, to concept formation as conceptual history through a series of stops which will add different contextual layers to the analysis. This step by step introduction is meant to show the basic connectedness, and indeed crucial importance, of all this layers for constructivism-inspired scholarship where concept formation is not simply a means but an important end in our knowledge. Throughout the journey, references will be made to the concept of power which, in this indirect way – so I hope – will be shown as variable, as core concept in a social theory, as well as a performative speech act, embedded in a certain historical and cultural context, with the effect of "politicising" issues.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Government
  • Author: Anna Leander
  • Publication Date: 06-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: There is a tendency for political protestors and academic critics of 'glo bal-isation' to focus their attention on the institutions of Global Governance. The meetings of the EU and WTO have to placed in far off, complicated location to be safe from the p hysical threats of the pro testors. And there is literally a flood of critical writings on the impact of the IMF, the World Bank or the G7 on developing countries. However, in this article I want to shift the focus to another, and it seems to me potentially more threatening tendency: the tendency towards 'ungovernance'. In particular I want to dis-cuss the role of mercenaries as an example of this d evelopment.
  • Topic: Security, Government, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Michael Mussa
  • Publication Date: 09-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: The global economic recovery is continuing but at a somewhat slower pace than was anticipated six months ago. Specifically, using the country weights from the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the forecast for real GDP growth in the world economy during 2002 (i.e., on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis) is cut by about half a percentage point to 3 percent—a pace that is slightly below my estimate of the potential growth rate for world GDP. This downward revision reflects primarily slower growth than earlier expected during the first half of 2002 in most industrial countries and the expectation that growth will remain somewhat more sluggish than earlier expected at least through year-end. For 2003, the forecast for global economic growth is also cut by about half a percentage point—to 4 percent—reflecting both general factors suggesting slightly weaker performance in many industrial and developing countries and the particular economic risks arising from possible military action against Iraq and from potential credit events affecting key developing countries. Despite these downward revisions, however, there is little doubt that the world economy will see significant improvement this year from the 1 percent growth recorded in 2001, and it is still reasonable to expect further improvement to a growth rate modestly above global potential during 2003.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Europe, Israel, Asia, South America, Latin America, North America
  • Author: Gary Hufbauer
  • Publication Date: 11-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Some trade disputes—like long Russian novels—never seem to end. The United States, Europe, and other trading nations have disputed the taxation of export earnings since the 1970s. To understand why the Foreign Sales Corporation (FSC) dispute is so hard to resolve, we must start with a historical tour.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: Wendy Dobson
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Recent evidence demonstrates strong links between developing countries' long-term growth and financial reform. Deputy Treasury Secretary Kenneth Dam has suggested that developing countries can transform their domestic financial sectors into "engines of growth."
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Organization, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: John Williamson
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: This policy brief examines whether the pessimism that recently gripped the financial markets about Brazil's economic prospects is justified, and whether the big IMF program in support of Brazil announced on August 8, 2002, is likely to succeed in turning the tide. It concludes that present policies would be adequate to secure a gradual reduction in the debt/GDP ratio given return of the exchange rate to a less undervalued level and a level of interest rates that is normal by past Brazilian standards though still high by world standards, though not under the recent conditions of a severely undervalued real and astronomical interest rates. It also concludes that the strongly improving trend recently evident in Brazilian trade promises a progressive reduction in external vulnerability, though this again could be jeopardized by the maintenance of sky-high interest rates. It then argues that, despite the mixed records of the two principal opposition candidates for the presidency, neither would be likely to choose a policy of deliberately reneging on Brazil's debts. That being so, the recent market turbulence has to be interpreted as a panic in which even those convinced that Brazil's fundamentals are sound did not dare to speculate in favor of restoration of normality. Such situations are exactly those where the IMF can play a useful role in breaking a panic, and hence the new loan much improves the chances of Brazil avoiding the implosion that would be likely to follow a debt restructuring.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Brazil, South America
  • Author: Adam S. Posen
  • Publication Date: 05-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: After more than a decade of economic stagnation and minimal structural change, Japan stands on the brink of outright financial crisis—the only debate is whether the Japanese government can dodge its imminent economic threats for another six months at most, or ride the wave of global expansion to throw still more money at these problems with decreasing effectiveness until the public debt becomes unsustainable (which should be no later than 2005). Either way, volatility in Japanese asset markets will be extremely high for the next 36 months, with significant declines on average in asset prices and the yen.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Japan, Israel, East Asia
  • Author: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Ben Goodrich
  • Publication Date: 05-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: The US Export-Import (Ex-Im) Bank is again at the center of controversy, as Congress debates the terms for its charter renewal. This policy brief critiques provisions of the House and Senate versions of the reauthorization bill and summarizes three justifications for Congress giving adequate support to the Ex-Im Bank. Box 1 provides a capsule description of the Ex-Im Bank's operations.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Marcus Miller
  • Publication Date: 04-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: It was at the National Economists' Club in November 2001 that Anne Krueger, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, threw down the gauntlet. “There is,” she said, “a gaping hole [in the international financial architecture] – we lack incentives to help countries with unsustainable debts resolve them promptly and in an orderly way. At present the only available mechanism requires the international community to bail out the private creditors. It is high time this hole was filled.”
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance