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42161. Reshaping the Security Order in Asia-Pacific

Author:
Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The international strategic landscape is evolving at an unprecedented pace. The widespread assumption is that the global balance of power is shifting from the West to the East (and the South), as a consequence of the convergence of two variables: the sustained economic growth of China and Asia over recent decades, and the Western economic downturn since the 2008 global financial crisis. Though interpretations differ on the meaning and magnitude of this power shift, the prevailing assumption is that it reflects the weakness, and for some the relative decline, of the US and the West against Asia's and primarily China's strong rise. The implications of these developments across the Asia-Pacific are deep and have already led to growing strategic competition between Beijing and Washington for preeminence over the Asia-Pacific and new uncertainties over global and regional governance.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Washington, Beijing, Asia, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

42162. Radicalization in the U.S. Beyond al Qaeda: Treating the disease of the disconnection

Author:
Clint Watts
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
The attacks of September 11, 2001 spawned a decade of al Qaeda inspired radicalization of disaffected Middle Eastern and North African youth and a handful of young Western men. Ten years later, foreign fighters to Afghanistan, Iraq and other jihadi battlefields appear to be declining while in contrast analysts have pointed to an uptick in United States (U.S.) based “homegrown extremism” - terrorism advocated or committed by U.S. residents or citizens.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, and North Africa

42163. The Three Versions of Al Qaeda: A Primer

Author:
Clint Watts
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
Al Qaeda today only slightly resembles the al Qaeda of yesteryear. Al Qaeda operatives or "al Qaeda-like" organizations stretch throughout North Africa, across the Middle East and into South Asia. This disparate string of organizations hosts a handful of al Qaeda's original Afghanistan and Pakistan veterans but mostly consist of newcomers inspired by al Qaeda's message -- disenfranchised young men seeking an adventurous fight in the wake of a tumultuous Arab Spring. Al Qaeda, or more appropriately jihadism pursued under al Qaeda's banner, has morphed in several waves over the course of more than two decades.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Canada, and Arabia

42164. JOURNAL OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 2012

Author:
Dan Fichtler and Andrew Shaver
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
The European sovereign debt crisis is surprisingly persistent in defying any solution. Germany would be a natural candidate to lead the implementation of measures to stop the crisis. However, Germany has shown only limited effort in doing so, although it benefits significantly from the Euro. Germany is often accused of weak leadership and questionable economic assumptions by the media. Instead, this paper will argue that Germany has acted rationally and benefits from a delay of the crisis. The analysis of the current situation, which is based on a game-theoretic model, offers evidence that some countries maximize their benefits by delaying the crisis. The crisis stimulates exports due to an undervalued Euro and significantly decreases interest rates for safe sovereign bonds. The delay of the crisis introduces a high risk that the monetary union will break up, even if all countries would individually prefer to keep the monetary union. This risk is created by the structure of the decision making process, which has an inherent tendency towards the delaying of a solution. A different decision making process based on majority rule would increase the likelihood that a solution to the crisis would be developed more quickly. Alternatively, concessions by countries suffering from a delay of the crisis to countries like Germany can compensate for any foregone benefits.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

42165. Nuclear Developments in North Korea

Author:
Siegfried S. Hecker
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
Three years ago, Pyongyang expelled the international inspectors from its Yongbyon nuclear complex and abandoned the Six - Party talks. The crisis atmosphere on the Korean peninsula sparked by Pyongyang's military actions in 2010 turned into diplomatic calm in 2011, but Pyongyang continued to expand its nuclear program. It conducted a second nuclear test in 2009, unveiled a modern, sophisticated uranium centrifuge facility, and rolled out a road - mobile intermediate - range ballistic missile in 2010. Its coopera tion in missile technologies with Iran continued and nuclear cooperation is suspected. Beijing protected Pyongyang from crippling sanctions while Washington and Seoul remained reluctant to engage having been burned by Pyongyang's unveiling of its clandestine uranium enrichment program. Prospects for resolution of the North Korean nuclear crisis looked grim. Then, surprisingly in December 2011, just before the death of Kim Jong - il, American and North Korean diplomats nearly reached a deal to return to the negotiating table. Even more surprisingly, the new Kim regime agreed to take initial steps with Washington in February. In this paper, I describe the troubling nuclear developments in 2011 and suggest targets for the upcoming negotiations to further reduce the nuclear risks while the parties resume the long road toward eventual denuclearization and normalization of relations on the Korean peninsula.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
North Korea

42166. A Winning Gambit

Author:
Siegfried S. Hecker
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
CISAC Co-Director Siegfried Hecker explains why nuclear arms states stand to gain more than they lose by ratifying the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). He explains why it is crucial to prevent states from testing nuclear weapons, with the strongest barrier to testing being the CTBT.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and International Security
Political Geography:
United States

42167. Table of Contents

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
2005'ten beri yayınlanmakta olan Ortadoğu Yıllığı bu sayısıyla birlikte sekizinci kez okuyucularıyla buluşmuş oldu. Son dönemde içeride demokrasisini sağlamlaştıran ve bunun getirmiş olduğu istikrar ortamı sayesinde belirgin bir şekilde ekonomik, siyasi ve askeri kapasitesini artıran Türkiye'nin Ortadoğu'daki bölgesel güç konumuna uygun politikalar izleyebilmesi için bu bölgenin daha iyi tanınması giderek daha önemli hale gelmektedir. Hem siyasi karar vericiler hem de araştırmacılar ve akademik dünya için Ortadoğu bölgesindeki ülkelerin siyasal, ekonomik ve toplumsal yapılarının detaylı bir şekilde bilinmesi ve bu yapılara dair yaşanan süreçlerin sağlıklı bir şekilde analiz edilebilmesini kolaylaştırmayı amaçlayan Ortadoğu Yıllığı “doğru bilgi ve sağlıklı analiz” sloganıyla yola çıkmıştı. Bu yolda kararlı bir şekilde ilerlemenin ve bir kesinti olmadan sekizinci sayıya ulaşmanın mutluluğunu yaşıyoruz.
Political Geography:
Middle East and Ecuador

42168. Türkiye'nin Ortadoğu Politikası

Author:
Kemal İnat
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
Turkish foreign policy toward the Middle East has confronted with more and novel security challenges in 2012. The problematic issues related to Arab revolutions of 2011 have already had negative repercussions for Ankara. As a result of diverging policy choices toward the Arab revolutions, these conflicting issues caused more strained relations between Turkey and its neighbors in the region. Regional actors divided over how to respond to political deadlocks in the Middle East. While Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have sided together, Iran, Syria and the central government of Iraq have made their policies jointly. This very division between the regional actors has increased the security risks within the Middle East. These two camps have particularly conflicting policy agendas and as a result, they have become part of a “proxy war” in Syria which constitutes the biggest security threat to the whole region. Despite the deteriorating situation in Syria and its own tense political environment domestically, Turkey, has continued to strengthen its economic relations with the Middle Eastern capitals except Damascus. It was partly a result of this policy that Turkey's export toward the Middle East increased significantly.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, and Government
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Damascus, and Ankara

42169. Irak 2012

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
Termination of the US military presence in Iraq at the end of 2011, bring some problems for Iraq on military, domestic politics and economic area. Just a few months later US military withdrawal, escalating political tension began to delimitate coalition government built on a fragile structure and at the same time has led to emergence of some struggles with in the country. Discourses or expectations of many Iraqi leaders that Iraq will be saved from the problems which he faced and even new independent era will start with the year of 2012 have been turned upside down because of violence and political instability occurring at the beginning of this new independent era. Bombings, political and military strife between ethnic groups, struggle between national government and the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and particularly worsening of Iraq-Turkey relations forced Baghdad government to waste large part of its energy on these issues. In addition to this, natural resources having strategic importance for economic developments and Iraq's future stand out as a shaping factor of Iraq's foreign and domestic politics.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

42170. İran 2012

Author:
Murat Yeşiltaş
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
The Arab Spring has resulted in a shift in the nature of Iran's regional foreign policy from a traditional 'resistance' strategy to a 'new engagement' approach. The new approach aims to strike a balance between strengthening cooperation with states in the region such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia and containing threats through maintaining traditional relations with ideological movements. In addition to the new strategic engagement policy, however, the nuclear issue has been constrained Iran's real economic and foreign policy capacity during 2012. The deepening economic crisis and rising inflation rates have also negatively affect Iran's domestic affairs and caused a new fragmentation among the conservative block. The legislative election held on March 2012 was the best example to understand this separation in Iranian domestic politics. In this article, it is analysed Iranian bilateral and regional relations by particularly focusing on its position regarding Arab Spring, nuclear issue and regional developments during 2012.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Iran, Arabia, and Egypt