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  • Author: Lyndelle Fairlie
  • Publication Date: 08-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: A Northern Dimension for the European Union is now taking shape. Originally a Finnish initiative, it tries to take a regional view of the Baltic area which includes member states, EU applicants such as Poland and the Baltic states and Russia. The Northern Dimension specifically mentions the Russian oblast of Kaliningrad. There is very little time left to develop an Action Plan which the EU Council can adopt at the December Helsinki summit. This essay addresses the question of whether or not the EU will use Northern Dimension to solve its Kaliningrad dilemma.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Organization, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia
  • Author: Bjørn Moller
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: There is little doubt that Iraq was in blatant violation of the 1991 ceasefire agreement in general and of the famous “mother of all resolutions”, UNSCR 687 (3 April 1991) in particular, in which the extent and modalities of the disarmament of the defeated aggressor were detailed: The Security Council..... 8. Decides that Iraq shall unconditionally accept the destruction, removal, or rendering harmless, under international supervision, of: a) all chemical and biological weapons and all stocks of agents and all related subsystems and components and all research, development, support and manufacturing facilities; b) all ballistic missiles with a range greater than 150 kilometres... 34. Decides to remain seized of the matter and to take such further steps as may be required for the implementation of this resolution and to secure peace and security in the area.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Law, United Nations
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East
  • Author: Jürgen Altmann
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Cornell University Peace Studies Program
  • Abstract: Acoustic weapons are under research and development in a few countries. Advertised as one type of non-lethal weapons, they are said to immediately incapacitate opponents while avoiding permanent physical damage. Reliable information on specifications or effects is scarce, however. The present report sets out to provide basic information in several areas: effects of large-amplitude sound on humans, potential high-power sources, and propagation of strong sound.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Susan B. Martin
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics, University of Pennsylvania
  • Abstract: This paper responds to recent criticisms of balance of power theory by arguing that those criticisms represent a misunderstanding of both the contributions and limitations of systemic balance of power theory. At the same time, it acknowledges that there are some problems with current work on balance of power, in particular with work that uses systemic balance of power theory as a basis for studies of state behavior. I argue that the problems with this current work are a result of the failure to make the adjustments required by the change in the level of analysis that occurs when one moves from systemic theory to the study of state behavior. In particular, there has been little analysis of what it means for a state to “balance.” To address this problem, I develop a definition of balancing behavior that is consistent with systemic balance of power theory, and then use that definition to develop a general model of balancing behavior. I then show how that general model can be used to integrate and evaluate different hypotheses concerning the balancing behavior of states. I conclude that both systemic balance of power theory and studies of the balancing behavior of states can contribute to our understanding of international politics, and therefore argue that we should resist the suggestion of critics that balance of power theory should be abandoned.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, Politics
  • Author: Carmen Thiele
  • Publication Date: 08-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Centre for Minority Issues
  • Abstract: Using the example of Estonia, the criterion of citizenship as a prerequisite for membership in a national minority and its legal consequences for persons belonging to these groups is discussed. While at the universal level minority protection is considered as a basic human right, at the European level it is still viewed as a right of citizens. The author pleads for a simplification of the naturalisation process and the renouncing of the citizenship criterion as a requirement for membership of a national minority.
  • Topic: Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, International Law, Nationalism
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Estonia
  • Author: Kinga Gál
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Centre for Minority Issues
  • Abstract: The practice of bilateral agreements on good neighbourly relations was 'reinvented' by Germany after 1991 to guarantee the frontiers resulting from World War II and to protect the minorities of German origin in Central and Eastern Europe. A similar policy was pursued by Hungary with five of its neighbours to deal with the problems of the Hungarian minorities. Parallel to this trend, the European Union has also promoted a policy aimed at guaranteeing stability in Central and Eastern Europe through bilateral agreements on good neighbourliness. The bilateral treaties follow each other in time, structure and content. They incorporate soft law provisions, especially with regard to their minority regulations, reflecting the strong influence of the political factor. They do not mention collective rights and fail to provide the national minorities concerned with any form of self-government. Furthermore, they were often negotiated in the absence of the minority communities they were designed to protect. As these treaties are politically highly motivated, the political aspects of the implementation mechanisms have received primacy over the legal possibilities. The treaties, and hence indirectly the provisions of international documents enshrined in them, have the same status as national legislation and could therefore be claimed before national courts. However, the joint intergovernmental committees monitoring implementation have the potential to become the most effective implementation mechanism. In conclusion, although these treaties have not significantly changed the existing practice of minority protection so far, their importance should not be diminished because they contribute to the construction of a new inter-state framework for minority protection.
  • Topic: Ethnic Conflict, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Germany
  • Author: Stephanie Schwandner-Sievers
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Centre for Minority Issues
  • Abstract: Today, many thousands of Aromanians (also known as "Vlachs") live quite compactly in Northern Greece, Macedonia (FYROM) and southern Albania; and there are still traces of Vlach-Aromanian and Aromanian populations in Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia and Romania. In Albania, they were recently estimated at about 200,000 by the English scholar Tom Winnifrith. In Albanian communist times, Aromanians were not recognised as a separate minority group, officially considered to be almost completely assimilated. However, in the early post-communist transition period, a vivid Aromanian ethnic movement emerged in Albania and it became part of a recent global Balkan Aromanian initiative. The Albanian Aromanians' new emphasis of their ethnicity can be seen as a pragmatic strategy of adjustment to successes and failures in the Albanian political transition and to globalisation. It is exactly the re-vitalisation of the conflict between followers of a pro-Greek and a pro-Romanian Aromanian identification that serves to broaden the scope of options for potential exploitation.
  • Topic: Development, Ethnic Conflict, Politics
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Albania
  • Author: Gianni Vaggi
  • Publication Date: 11-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Studies Center
  • Abstract: The paper is an introduction to some of the issues that the enlargement, both in terms of memberships and association, will involve.
  • Topic: International Relations, NATO
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Emilio Gerelli
  • Publication Date: 11-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Studies Center
  • Abstract: Building scenarios of the future has been defined "the art of thinking the unthinkable". And in fact the successful author of scenarios must be able to combine both an open and creative mind, and analytical capabilities to envisage different and sometimes counterintuitive combinations of actors, factors and trends. Our author is often also "heroic", since he knows that most probably he will be disproved by facts. However it is worth bravely accepting the challenge of uncertainty, since "illustrating the future by means of scenarios is a way to overcome human beings' resistance to change. Scenarios can thus open mental horizons to allow the individual to accept and understand change, and so be able to shape the world. Scenarios may help in seizing new opportunities ahead as well as avoiding undesirable effects of misconceived actions". In this connection a historian notes: "it is desirable, possible and even within certain limits necessary to forecast our future…However the process of forecasting must be based necessarily on the knowledge of the past".
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Klaus Becher
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The nations of the European Union represent not only one of the two most important economic actors in the world, but also include some countries of world-wide political importance. Half of the G-8 membership is from the EU, as are two permanent members of the UN Security Council. The responsibilities and obligations that, historically, European powers accumulated in all continents still have many remnants. The two big European wars of the 20th century were also fought in Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia. Europe, while enjoying the benefits of a large, expanding internal market, depends for its prosperity on a secure and functioning global order.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, Iceland, Nagasaki, Taipei
  • Author: Shahram Chubin
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: In the past fifty years five US President's from Truman to Clinton have directly or indirectly, affirmed US interests in the Middle East. The 'doctrines' in the case of Carter (1979) and Reagan (1981) specifically addressed the security of the Persian Gulf. The same period has seen the withdrawal of imperial powers. Three decades ago Britain managed the security of the Persian Gulf. Two decades ago France had the largest naval force in the Indian Ocean. The contraction of these commitments was encouraged by the US, which was unwilling to be associated with colonialism and its evils. Yet since Britain's withdrawal from the Gulf which occasioned the Nixon doctrine, the US has been grappling with how best to assure security. Reliance on regional states ("twin pillars") was upset by the Iranian revolution. In the 1980's the long Iran-Iraq war underscored the need for a Western role, but neither its shape nor its duration were clear. Local forces were reluctant to envisage any thing beyond an "over the horizon presence."
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Britain, United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France
  • Author: Francois Heisbourg
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The Kosovo air war was an eye-opener for many Europeans, particularly for those who normally follow defence issues at a distance. There was no escaping the realisation that close to three-quarters of the aircraft and more than four-fifths of the ordnance released against Serbian targets were American. America's massive dominance in C31 was similarly spectacular, with media commentators using the over-simplified but effective equation: "Fifty U.S. military satellites, a single European satellite". Under such circumstances U.S. influence on all strategic and operational aspects of the war could only be overwhelming, for better or for worse, a situation summarised by the syllogism "no capability-no responsibility". Despite deep strategic flaws, questionable tactics and occasional rank incompetence (the Apache episode, the China Embassy bombing), the U.S. edge is so great that it can afford even serious blunders.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: America, Europe, Middle East
  • Author: Stuart Johnson
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The United States and its NATO allies have engaged in two high intensity conflicts in this decade, Desert Storm in the Gulf and Operation Allied Force in Yugoslavia. Both campaigns were characterized by a strong, and successful, effort to maintain broad coalition participation and cohesion. But the story is more complex than the press releases from NATO Headquarters, Washington, and other NATO capitals would have us believe. Both operations revealed differences in US and European allies' capabilities and styles of prosecuting warfare. These forced the commanders to adopt an ad-hoc, inefficient division of labor in what, to the public, was presented as a seamless coalition operation.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Middle East
  • Author: Dmitriy Gershenson, Herschel I. Grossman
  • Publication Date: 12-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Independent Institute
  • Abstract: The Soviet ruling elite, the nomenklatura, used both cooption and political repression to encourage loyalty to the communist regime. Loyalty was critical both in defusing internal opposition to the rule of the nomenklatura and in either deterring or defeating foreign enemies of the Soviet Union. The cost of coopting people into the communist party was a decrease in the standard of living of members of the nomenklatura, whereas the cost of political repression was the danger that members of the nomenklatura would themselves be victimized. We assume that the nomenklatura determined the extent of cooption and the intensity of political repression by equating perceived marginal benefits and marginal costs.
  • Topic: Cold War, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, China
  • Author: Petra Stephan
  • Publication Date: 11-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Development and Peace
  • Abstract: The General Assembly of the United Nations proclaimed the year 2002 as "The International Year of Ecotourism". Multilateral development institutions such as the World Bank, the Global Environmental Facility, governments in developing countries, the tourism industry as well as local non-governmental organizations all over the world count on ecotourism as a supposed panacea for development and biodiversity protection. With assumed annual growth rates from ten up to thirty percent, ecotourism is often praised as the most dynamic sector in the tourism industry. But some of the stakeholders in the tourism industry seem to use a very extended definition of ecotourism. It includes wildlife watching as well as adventure tourism. Tourism products that are advertised under the label "eco" often only have in common, that they take place in nature. A lot of these offers can be called "ecotourism-light". They only add visits to protected areas to regular package tours, for instance. The concept of "ecotourism" seems to share this fate with the concept of "sustainable development": everybody talks about it and everybody defines it in accordance with one's own interests.
  • Topic: Emerging Markets, Environment, Globalization, International Political Economy
  • Author: William Smith, Roberto Korzeniewicz
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
  • Abstract: The crystallization of the so-called “Washington Consensus” in the late 1980s sparked intense debates regarding the likely social impact of macroeconomic stabilization and structural adjustment. Academic critics and political opponents argued that Washingtonian reforms, and neoclassical economics more broadly, lacked a coherent theory of growth, and were bound to result in long-term negative trends in popular welfare and social inequality. Advocates of neoliberal restructuring, in contrast, while recognizing that market-oriented reforms could lead initially to a decline in output and standards of living, were confident that these reforms eventually would lead to sustainable growth and, as a consequence, greater equality and enhanced social welfare. A decade later we revisit this debate to evaluate recent trends in economic growth, poverty and inequality, and to assess accompanying shifts in the theoretical, policy, and political terrains.
  • Topic: Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: Washington, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean
  • Author: Michael P. Taylor
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
  • Abstract: The Schlesinger Working Group on Strategic Surprises held its first two sessions in the fall of 1999, convening practitioners and area experts to discuss Indonesia immediately before and after that country's presidential selection. Participants debated the composition of the new government, the prospect of further regional separatism, and the future role of the military, and the political and social impact of the continuing financial crisis, among other issues. Many expected that the broad coalition-style government that emerged under the leadership of Abdurrahman Wahid would offer short-term stability at the expense of a decisive policy direction. The center would hold in the short term but be weakened.
  • Topic: Development, Ethnic Conflict, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Indonesia, Asia
  • Author: Colin Kahl
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
  • Abstract: Since the early 1990s, the National Security Strategy (NSS) of the United States has identified civil strife in developing countries as an important threat to American interests and pointed to demographic and environmental pressures as potential sources of these conflicts. As the Clinton administration's 1996 NSS notes, “America's security imperatives... have fundamentally changed. The central security challenge of the past half century—the threat of communist expansion—is gone. The dangers we face today are more diverse... [L]arge-scale environmental degradation, exacerbated by rapid population growth, threatens to undermine political stability in many countries and regions.”President Clinton echoed these sentiments in a speech before the United Nations on June 26, 1997, declaring that efforts to preserve the planet's natural resources were “crucial not only for the quality of our individual environments and health, but also to maintain stability and peace within nations and among them.” Similar concerns have been voiced outside Washington. In 1991, for example, then NATO secretary general Manfred Worner argued that “[t]he immense conflict potential building up in the Third World, characterized by growing wealth differentials, an exploding demography, climate shifts and the prospect for environmental disaster, combined with the resource conflicts of the future, cannot be left out of our security calculations...”And, in an influential and particularly apocalyptic article entitled “The Coming Anarchy,” Robert Kaplan went so far as to suggest that the environment was “the national-security issue of the early twenty-first century. The political and strategic impact of surging population, spreading disease, deforestation and soil erosion, water depletion, air pollution, and, possibly, rising sea levels in critical, overcrowded regions... will be the core foreign-policy challenge from which most others will ultimately emanate...”
  • Topic: Security, Economics, Environment, International Political Economy, Third World
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Washington
  • Author: Stephan Haggard, Ralph Cossa, Daniel Pinkston, Akiko Fukushima
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California
  • Abstract: The U.S. government has been generally supportive of, and an active participant in, a broad variety of multilateral security dialogue mechanisms that have emerged in the Asia-Pacific region in recent years. These efforts at building trust and confidence, both at the official and at the nongovernmental or so-called track-two level, have the potential for enhancing Northeast Asian regional security. All Northeast Asian nations express support for such efforts, and the current trend toward multilateralism is generally consistent with U.S. foreign policy objectives in Asia as an important complement to America's bilateral security arrangements, which remain the foundation of U.S. security policy in Asia.
  • Topic: Security, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, America, Israel, Asia, Northeast Asia
  • Author: Philip L. Martin
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California
  • Abstract: As immigration and integration become subject to heightened public debate and policy attention, Germany and the United States must rethink the policy process in order to promote policy consistency and awareness of its international repercussions. Recent German and U.S. debates and policy changes point to the need for agencies to monitor developments and suggest policy options, and administrative structures that permit some flexibility in administering immigration and integration policies.
  • Topic: Government, Migration, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Germany
  • Author: Walter C. Clemens, Jr.
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: This paper suggests how basic concepts of complexity theory can be applied to international relations and—as a test case—to analyze security and development issues in the Baltic states and Russia. Complexity theory suggests ways to assess the fitness of states—defined as the capacity to cope with complex challenges. Fitness depends not just on material strength relative to changing conditons but also on a capacity for self-organization. Societies that are too rigid or too chaotic lack this capacity. Complexity theory's emphasis on coevolution reminds us to analyze actors in relation to each other and to their common environment.
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Michael w. Collier
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: This paper presents and institutional-choice model that addresses the problem of political corruption, the abuse of public office for private gain. The institutional-choice model first employs a rational-choice game, and then through a constructivist analyses links the game solutions to a surrounding institutional structure that influences agent decisions. This paper models political corruption as a coordination game among a state's ruling elite and citizen groups—a game with multiple solutions that reveal the range of corruption expected among states. A constructivist theory of rules is then used to build the causal mechanisms explaining the domestic and international causes of political corruption. The paper highlights the need to build self-enforcing mechanisms to police the conduct of public officials.This paper presents and institutional-choice model that addresses the problem of political corruption, the abuse of public office for private gain. The institutional-choice model first employs a rational-choice game, and then through a constructivist analyses links the game solutions to a surrounding institutional structure that influences agent decisions. This paper models political corruption as a coordination game among a state's ruling elite and citizen groups—a game with multiple solutions that reveal the range of corruption expected among states. A constructivist theory of rules is then used to build the causal mechanisms explaining the domestic and international causes of political corruption. The paper highlights the need to build self-enforcing mechanisms to police the conduct of public officials.
  • Topic: International Relations, Politics
  • Author: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Very rough preliminary and incomplete draft The modern state-centric international system is generally thought to have its origins in the Treaty of Westphalia. From that perspective, the modern sovereign state owes its origins to the resolution of the Thirty Years War. Prior to 1648, international politics are thought to have been less territorially focused, with feudal ties taking precedence over considerations of state. Here I set out a modest theory of competition between the Catholic church and European kings, especially the Holy Roman Emperor and the kings of France and England, during the years from 1122 onward. That theory suggests that the modern territorial state has its origins in the Concordat of Worms, 500 years earlier than is generally thought. It also suggests that the development of important institutions of the modern sovereign state are an endogenous product of strategic maneuvering between the Catholic Church and European kings over political control within their domains. Naturally, other factors, including competition between kings and barons, and aristocrats and merchants also play an important part in the evolution of political institutions. Those other considerations, however, are not examined here so that what I propose is a partial, incomplete account of the early developments that culminated in the modern territorial, sovereign state. Specifically, the theory maintains that the development of “modern” political institutions and the history of economic growth in Europe are to a significant degree the consequence of competition between monarchs and the Catholic church. This views stands in contrast to the general accounts of economic growth or of institution building found in the sociological literature beginning with Weber or in the historical and much of the political economy literature.
  • Topic: International Law, Religion, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Knowledge progresses through a dynamic process. Arguments are made for the plausibility of hypotheses. The logic of such arguments is scrutinized and the evidence for and against the inferences drawn from the arguments is evaluated. Progress is made by reducing the set of logically and empirically plausible explanations of the phenomena of interest. Such reduction takes place on at least two levels. Some seemingly plausible explanations are eliminated for want of logical coherence. Others, passing the test of logical coherence, are superceded by alternatives that account for a broader array of empirical phenomena and/or a broader set of facts. In this essay I suggest that on both grounds, the neorealist research program is no longer a plausible explanation of the central phenomena in international relations with which it is concerned.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Author: Kenneth Lloyd Forsberg
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Occasionally, terminological problems reflect underlying conceptual confusions that can seriously impede the advancement of discourse and understanding. This paper argues that two such problems currently exist in much of international relations scholarship, focused around the concept “interests.”
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Author: Eric Garcetti
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: In January 1963, Haile Selassie, Emperor of Ethiopia, stood in the dry bed of the Mereb River in northern Ethiopia and in front of the world's cameras cut a ribbon over the border separating Ethiopia and Eritrea to symbolize the recent “unification” of the two states. More than 36 years later, any idea of amity, let alone unity, between Ethiopia and Eritrea lies in shreds along the border, scene of a seven-month military standoff between the two states. As mediators from President Clinton to Mohamar Ghaddafi rush to find a solution to the escalating conflict, both armies are on the precipice of an all-out war.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Nationalism
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ethiopia
  • Author: Paul D. Hoyt
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Over the last few years a new concept has taken on heightened emphasis in the public rhetoric of American policymakers: that is, the “rogue state” and the related “pariah” and “outlaw state” designations. In American post-Cold War thinking, these states have emerged as one of the major, if not the most preeminent, of America's security concerns. As fears of a nuclear confrontation with the Soviet Union recede into memory, “rogue states” tend to be joined with such international evils, and perceived threats to U.S. interests, as terrorism (commonly associated with rogues), drug syndicates, and organized crime.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, National Security
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Xiaoming Huang
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: An assertive and effective state is seen as instrumental in Asian development. This study, focusing on the post-Cold War Taiwan, investigates the changed nature of the polity and, at the same time, the persistent manipulation of market forces by the government, and explains why the state is still a preferred and capable institution in an environment of democratic politics and market economy and even more so in Taiwan; and how the new state activism should be understood in relation to its earlier form in the controlled politics and corporatist society of the Cold War and what it says abut the emergent political economy in East Asia.
  • Political Geography: East Asia
  • Author: Christopher C. Meyerson
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: This paper is circulated for discussion and comment only and should not be quoted without permission of the author. Linked to American efforts to achieve trade liberalization through trade negotiations has been the recognition of the need not only to improve American trade policymaking processes, but also to analyze more effectively other countries' trade policymaking processes. In order to address these needs, this paper, which is a summary of my Columbia University Political Science dissertation, develops a contextual two-level game approach that can be used to analyze trade policymaking.
  • Topic: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, America, East Asia, Colombia
  • Author: Svetlana Valerie Morozova
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: The paper presents a theoretical cross-national study of energy taxation, concentrating on the heavy fuel oil tax. It theoretically investigates the effects that public opinion, institutional corporatism and left-wing ideology may have on the cross-national variance in manufacturing energy taxes, controlling for the plausible influence of budget deficits, energy import-dependency and deindustrialization. It is hypothesized that in more corporatist nations public opinion supportive of energy conservation, in combination with the Left-wing ideology of governing legislative coalition, will lead to higher energy taxes. Deindustrialization, proxied by the declining employment and output value in/of energy-intensive industries is believed to be responsible for a certain share of energy tax variance in the OECD countries. Finally, it is argued that energy import-dependency brings affects national manufacturing energy taxes.
  • Topic: Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Politics
  • Author: Detlef F. Sprinz
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: This paper reviews the current state of research on the effect of international environmental regimes. In particular, the various concepts of regime effectiveness and methods chosen to establish causal regime effects are compared, followed by a summary of the empirical findings on the degree of regime effectiveness and the explanation of its variation. Subsequently, a range of research challenges is outlined which needs to be addressed in order to make substantive progress, esp. in assessing international regimes over longer time horizons. The paper concludes with lessons which the study of the effect of international environmental regimes offers for international political economy.
  • Topic: Environment, International Cooperation, International Political Economy
  • Author: J. Craig Jenkins, Charles Lewis Taylor, Joe Bond, Doug Bond, Zeynep Benderlioglu Kuzucu
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: This paper presents the current state of our project to expand and to replicate Goldstein's Conflict-Cooperation Scale for WEIS Event Data using a Delphi technique and focusing on intrastate as well as interstate interactions. We report here the results of a pilot study conducted with the assistance of a small expert panel. Our intention is to take advantage of a larger and more diverse set of judges representing the governmental, national security, commercial and academic communities while controlling for major demographic characteristics. In our Integrated Data for Event Analysis (IDEA) approach, classic WEIS categories are supplemented with verb cues drawn from the World Handbook and other interaction event taxonomies. Panelists are asked to rank these event categories, with regard to contention-accommodation, coercion-altruism, and physical violence as well as to overall conflict-cooperation. No a priori assumptions are made with regard to the three hypothesized dimensions and their fit or placement within the conceptual space of conflict and cooperation. Interrelationships will be sought empirically. This expansion of the Goldstein scale will be a useful tool in the analysis of conflict and cooperation in international and intra-national political interactions.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation
  • Author: Jessica L. Urban
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: The contributions of feminist scholarship to International Relations have exposed gender bias in the field and have provided inroads toward the internationalization of women's human rights. Nevertheless, non-Western women's bodies continue as an important site for the construction of Western geopolitical discourse. Western discourse on Islam represents Muslim societies as inherently violent and backwards with Muslim men as irrational victimizers of passive Muslim women. The veil epitomizes this oppression. Subsequently, this discourse justifies Western intervention into Muslim countries.
  • Topic: Gender Issues, Human Rights, Islam
  • Author: Kenneth E. Wilkening
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: This paper outlines a general approach for analyzing the role of culture in international environmental policymaking. It draws on work in anthropology and foreign policy analysis. As a first step in investigating the role of culture in international environmental policy, culture needs to be viewed as a “toolkit of environmental ideas.” The second step is to delimit broad definitions of culture to a more workable forms. Three forms are offered (following Hudson 1997a): culture as organization of environmental meaning, environmental shared-value preferences, and templates for environmental action. The third step is to answer three basic questions relative to the specific definition of culture employed: who draws what environmentally-related ideas from the ideas toolkit, how are these ideas employed in the political arena, and how do these ideas, originally drawn upon for political purposes, change and ultimately end up changing the set of environmentally-related ideas in the toolkit. In the political arena the ideas are assumed to be embodied in a “discourse.” The terminology of discourse and the body of theory built up around it is then used as a vehicle for examining the role of culture and cultural change in international environmental policymaking. A rough and preliminary attempt is made to provide a concrete example of the above approach in relation to the role of culture in the transboundary air pollution issue in Northeast Asia.
  • Topic: International Relations, Environment, Politics
  • Political Geography: Israel, Northeast Asia
  • Author: P. Sahadevan
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
  • Abstract: A tumultuous region with a common cultural background and shared political experience, South Asia occupies a prominent place in the global map of ethnic conflict. Many groups have fiercely fought with each other, laid siege on the state, frustrated its nation-building efforts, and burnt bridges to capture the larger consciousness of the international community. In comparison, the region is unique in many ways from the standpoint of ethnicity, use of violence and approach to peace. First, it is one of the world's most complex regions with multi-ethnic societies, characterized by striking internal divisions along linguistic, regional, communal and sectarian lines, but externally linked to one another across national boundaries. Yet, multiculturalism or pluralism as a guiding principle of governance is hardly adopted into the popular political culture of the region. A probable exception is India where different ethnic groups, at least in principle, enjoy 'equally' a modicum of political space for cultural and political autonomy. But there, multicultural arrangements are hindered by the Center's intrusion into the affairs of political institutions, leading to political decay and rupture in center-periphery relations. The manner and the extent of state intervention in promoting the politico-economic interests of groups, therefore, determine the dynamics of conflict.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: South Asia, India
  • Author: Charles Tilly
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
  • Abstract: Aristotle described democratization as a perversion. In a constitutional government, when the majority substituted its particular interest for the community's general interest, self-serving rule of the many — democracy — resulted. In his analysis of political forms, Aristotle went on to specify processes promoting a majority's pursuit of its narrow interest, for example the rise of demagogues and the increase of a polity's size beyond the limits of mutual acquaintance. He also allowed that revolution could convert a tyranny or an oligarchy (his names for degenerate forms of monarchy and aristocracy) directly into a democracy. Aristotle's Politics does not offer a causal theory sufficient to specify the process by which today's Uganda or Uzbekistan could become democratic. It does, however, provide an exemplary model of theoretically coherent explanation. It goes far beyond mapping the initial conditions and sequences of events that constitute paths to democracy. It actually features causes and effects.
  • Topic: Democratization
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Uzbekistan
  • Author: Doug Imig, Sydney Tarrow
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
  • Abstract: The research reported here was inspired by a talk that the second author was induced to give for a seminar in West European Politics at Nuffield College, Oxford, in February 1994 by Vincent Wright, to whom we express our gratitude and to whom all complaints and cavils should be directed.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe, Western Europe
  • Author: Tom Nicholas
  • Publication Date: 01-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Abstract: Recent sociological analysis of the extent to which modern British society has become more meritocratic raises important conceptual issues for the recurrent economic history debate concerning the social mobility of Britain's business leaders. The majority view in this debate is that high social status backgrounds have predominated in the profiles of businessmen throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. François Crouzet's The First Industrialists reveals that Britain's industrial pioneers were drawn largely from the middle-and upper-classes, and that the image of the self-made man as the mainstay of the Industrial Revolution is a myth. Stanworth and Giddens identify a prevalence of 'elite self-recruitment' among deceased company chairmen active in large corporations and banks between 1900 and 1970. Scott's work on the upper classes distinguishes a 'core' business stratum characterised by kinship and privilege. Bringing together a range of research on the social origins of businessmen in the twentieth century, Jeremy asserts that 'it was rare for sons of the semi-skilled and unskilled to rise to national leadership in Britain'. The typical twentieth century business leader is upper-or upper middle-class by social origin, rising through the public schools and Oxbridge into the higher echelons of the business community.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Britain, United Kingdom
  • Author: Philip Epstein
  • Publication Date: 01-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Abstract: Economic convergence has emerged as one of the key debates in the theoretical and historical literature over the last decade. Galor identified three forms of long run per capita income convergence: absolute convergence, whereby convergence occurs independently of the initial conditions facing each economy; conditional convergence, whereby convergence occurs among economies which have identical structural characteristics, independently of their initial conditions; and club convergence, whereby convergence occurs only if the structural characteristics are identical and initial conditions are also similar. Of these, the absolute convergence hypothesis has been discredited whereas there is empirical support for both the conditional convergence and club convergence hypotheses. The club convergence hypothesis, in particular, has much to offer to economic historians. It stresses the importance of both the initial conditions facing each economy and the structural and institutional features of the economy (e.g. preferences, technologies, rates of population growth, government policies, etc.).
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: Christodoulakim Olga
  • Publication Date: 01-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Abstract: Although industrial production and growth in Greece during the interwar period has attracted considerable attention, there has not been any serious challenge either in qualitative or quantitative terms to the orthodoxy established in the period itself. The literature usually sees the 1920s as a landmark in the industrialisation of the country and a time when Greek manufacturing achieved an "unprecedented prominence". The momentum given to industrial expansion in the 1920s was encouraged by institutional changes brought about by government policy aimed at reducing social tensions stemming from unemployed refugees gathered in urban areas, by the depreciation of the drachma and heavy tariffs. The swift demographic changes that happened in the country following the Asia Minor debacle, however, have played a pivotal role in the literature in explaining industrial growth in the 1920s. According to conventional belief, the arrival of the refugees created the preconditions for an industrial expansion in the 1920s. The sudden increase in the population of the country has been linked to industrial growth in three ways: firstly, the abundance of cheap labour gathered in urban centres exerted downward pressures on wages; secondly, the refugees it is argued, brought with them entrepreneurial skills, their skilled labour, in short contributing to an improvement of the human capital in Greece, and took initiatives that promoted industrial development; finally, the sudden expansion of the domestic market because of the increase in the population boosted demand which consequently stimulated industrial production. The carpet industry, an industry that emerge in the 1920s and was mainly run by refugees, is usually mentioned as a representative example of the impact that refugees had in promoting new industries and entrepreneurial skills in the country.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Greece, Asia
  • Author: Jérùme Destombes
  • Publication Date: 01-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Abstract: This research takes Iliffe's suggestion seriously. For the student of Sub- Saharan Africa who has decided to explore a plausible route of causation between nutrition and poverty, the most urgent task is to disregard the initial discouragement triggered by the scarcity of references. The lack of relevant data is commonly pointed out and the contrast with the powerful insights made throughout the last decade by development economists is striking: poverty issues have been comprehensively investigated with behavioural models that strive to capture household strategies to cope with nutritional inadequacy and scarcity of resources. Although these strategies potentially have immense effects on welfare, development and the effectiveness of public policies, there have been few attempts to examine nutrition in less-developed countries through an economic history lens.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Ghana
  • Author: Susanne Jonas
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: This paper presents a political history and interpretation of the Guatemalan peace process, its turning points, and its crises. Beyond the significance of the process for Guatemala itself, the story of the peace negotiations holds fascinating and surprising lessons for a conflict-ridden world. Highlighted are the dynamics of the negotiation in its different stages, the role of the UN as a central player, its interactions with the key Guatemalan players, and some suggested hypotheses about the effects of the UN involvement.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Carol Wise
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: This paper tackles the question of trade strategy and differential economic performance in Latin America, with a focus on the four countries -- Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico -- most important for the successful completion of a full Western Hemispheric integration scheme. The analysis distinguishes between a “standard” market strategy that assigns the task of economic adjustment to market forces and a “competitive” strategy that more actively employs a range of public policies to facilitate adjustment and correct for instances of market failure. The choices of strategy are explored against the backdrop of international pressures, government-business relations, and institutional reform within the state. Two main conclusions are drawn: first, the competitive strategy strongly correlates with more favorable macro-and microeconomic outcomes and, second, mediocre economic performance under a standard market strategy has undermined the spirit of collective action that will be necessary to forge ahead at the hemispheric level.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Mexico, Chile
  • Author: Dick Thornburgh
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Clarke Center at Dickinson College
  • Abstract: On the evening of March 28, 1979 America experienced the first, and worst, nuclear power plant accident in its history. The crisis began when a valve opened, unnoticed, allowing coolant water to escape from the plant's new Unit 2 reactor. Following a series of technical and human failures, temperatures within the unit rose to more than 5,000 degrees, causing the fueling core to begin melting. During the next tension-packed days, scientists scrambled to prevent a meltdown while public officials, including Governor Dick Thornburgh and President Jimmy Carter, attempted to calm public fears. In spite of these efforts, thousands of residents fled to emergency shelters or left the state, driven by rumors of an imminent CHINA SYNDROME. In the end, only one layer of the containment structure was compromised and the accident never reached the proportions of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. The accident nonetheless resulted in the release of some radiation, the quantity and effects of which are still debated.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Island
  • Publication Date: 12-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: At the outset of this study, the Task Force observed that there was no such thing as “just” tactical communications. Rather, it saw requirements for conducting military operations in two major theaters of war as well as for conducting a wide variety of other missions. It also saw emerging requirements for a telecommunication infrastructure to support rapid force projection, early entry, reachback/split-base, and high mobility operations. Furthermore, Joint Vision 2010 (JV2010) assumed information superiority to be necessary for dominant maneuver, precision engagement, full dimensional protection and focused logistics. All these factors have led our Military Services to express a need for a fully integrated, strategic/tactical, voice/data/information telecommunications infrastructure rather than merely “tactical” communications. This infrastructure must bring post-camp-station information services to deployed forces and, conversely, bring information from our deployed forces to the continental United States (CONUS) or to other locations geographically distant from areas of operations.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 10-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: About 150 participants, including an international gathering of experts, examined whether and how technology may be leading to a paradigm shift in the nature and conduct of warfare, a shift that has been generally categorized as a "revolution in military affairs" (RMA).They concluded: The United States is the far—and—away leader in this drive. In fact, the United States is the only country intent on achieving a high technology RMA. No country is likely to match the United States in the broad—based technological sophistication of its military capabilitiesor even to try. US successes in developing RMA capabilities will drive potential adversaries toward asymmetric responses including weapons of mass destruction and information warfare. Some countries probably would be able to pose serious operational and strategic challenges to the United States by acquiring military technologies and capabilities that were in their eyes, "good enough." Also, countries can exploit "sidewise" technologies—old by US standards but still new to many other countries—to pose significant security threats and complicate US military operations. These technologies, if employed in a "novel" operational manner rather than high-end technologies, could drive development of the next RMA. Participants believe that—of the countries considered for discussion—China, Russia, India, and Australia have the greatest potential to achieve an RMA, should they decide to pursue the option.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Security, International Political Economy, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, China, Australia
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: The worldwide ballistic missile proliferation problem has continued to evolve during the past year. The proliferation of technology and components continues. The capabilities of the missiles in the countries seeking to acquire them are growing, a fact underscored by North Korea's launch of the Taepo Dong-1 in August 1998. The number of missiles in these countries is also increasing. Medium- and short-range ballistic missile systems, particularly if armed with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) warheads, already pose a significant, threat to US interests, military forces, and allies overseas. We have seen increased trade and cooperation among countries that have been recipients of missile technologies from others. Finally, some countries continue to work toward longer-range systems, including ICBMs.
  • Topic: International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, North Korea
  • Author: Robert Sutter
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: The National Intelligence Council and the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress hosted an all-day seminar at the Library of Congress on September 24, 1999 assessing the five-year outlook for China's domestic development and international security behavior. Entitled "China's Future--Implications for the United States," the seminar featured seven formal presentations by prominent academic specialists complemented by commentaries by nine China specialists from the US Intelligence Community. The Directors of the China offices in the State and Defense Departments offered concluding remarks on the implications of the conference findings for US policy toward China. Panelists and commentators focused specifically on political leaders and institutions, economic and social trends, security and foreign policies, and the overall prospects for China through 2005 (see seminar program). The main thrust of the deliberations reflected cautious optimism about China's future. The regime appears resilient enough to deal with most anticipated problems internally. China is wary of the United States and is gradually building military power. But unless Beijing is challenged by unexpected circumstances, China is unlikely to break with the United States or engage in disruptive military buildups or aggressive foreign behavior.
  • Topic: International Relations, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, China
  • Publication Date: 08-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: The views expressed are those of individuals and do not represent official US intelligence or policy positions. The NIC routinely sponsors such unclassified conferences with outside experts to gain knowledge and insight to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This memorandum was prepared by the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia based on a meeting held on 7 July 1999. The National Intelligence Council (NIC) routinely sponsors meetings with outside experts to gain knowledge and insights to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in this meeting summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: The National Intelligence Council (NIC) routinely sponsors conferences with outside experts to gain knowledge and insights to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in this conference summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security
  • Political Geography: United States, China
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This conference was sponsored by the National Intelligence Council and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research of the US Department of State. John Battilega of the Science Applications International Corporation served as rapporteur. The views expressed in this conference summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
  • Topic: Security, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States
  • Author: Ellen Brennan
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: One of the most striking features of world population growth is the rising predominance of the developing world. Currently, 81 million persons are added annually to the world's population—95 percent of them in developing countries. The second striking feature is related to urban growth. Although the growth of world urban population has been slower than projected twenty years ago, it has nevertheless been unprecedented. In 1950, less than 30 per cent of the world's population were urban dwellers. Between 1995 and 2030, the world's urban population is projected to double—from 2.6 to 5.1 billion, by which time three-fifths of the world's population will be living in urban areas (United Nations 1998b). As in the case of total population, there will be a significant redistribution of world urban population between the developed and the developing regions. Currently, 59 million new urban dwellers are added annually— 89 percent in developing countries. By 2025-2030, 76 million will be added annually—98 percent in developing countries.
  • Topic: Security, Demographics, Environment, Industrial Policy
  • Author: Yuriy Voronin
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: Russia is facing new difficulties as a result of negative processes in the economy, the deterioration of interethnic relations, and the social polarization of its society, which have created a direct threat to the security of the urban life in the country. This threat is a consequence of the increase in the proportion of the population living below the poverty line, the stratification of society into a small group of rich citizens and a vast majority of needy citizens, and the escalation of social tension, especially in the industrial cities of the Urals, Siberia, and other regions. At present there is a twenty-eight fold difference between the richest ten percent of the Russian population and the poorest ten percent. Although this unequal distribution of wealth is not very different from what existed in the pre-Revolutionary period in Russia, the striking discrepancy is shocking to a population that was accustomed to an ideological commitment to equality and -- despite the collapse of Communism -- continues to retain the socialist ideal of economic parity. Citizens perceive that they have been "robbed" of the assets that they were supposed to have inherited from the Soviet state. Ironically, the new holders of wealth are an alliance of former Communist Party bureaucrats, organized criminals, and dishonest businesspersons. This so-called "gangster industrial complex" is as oblivious to the needs of the people as was the former Soviet ruling elite.
  • Topic: Security, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Russia, Asia
  • Author: Vyacheslav Glazychev
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: The pitiful state of public housing in Washington, D.C., was well known in 1994, when Vyacheslav Glazychev, president and founder of the Academy of the Urban Environment in Moscow, was here trying to understand the function of the Advisory Neighborhood Commissions and in 1997 when he returned to spend several months as a Guest Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center. Based on his observations of Washington, D.C. and his extensive experience in Moscow, he found that despite the obvious differences in handling the issue of public housing in Washington, D.C. and Moscow, at least one thing is comparable: in both cities money spent on maintenance and repair has been insufficient while priority has long been given to new construction.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States
  • Author: Pedro Jacobi
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: Using the mechanism of “participatory budgeting” implemented in the city of Porto Alegre, Pedro Jacobi analyses a new practice of resource allocation in several Brazilian urban areas. He comes to the conclusion that participatory budgeting is an effective tool in the democratization of the city's management— helping to break old patterns of clientelist relations. According to Jacobi, the new mechanism promotes decentralization of municipal decision-making and increases public control over the city's investment policies.
  • Topic: Economics, Human Welfare, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: South America, Latin America
  • Author: K.C Sivaramakrishnan
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: Debate on how the Habitat II Conference in Istanbul influenced thinking on issues of urban governance will have to be preceded by some understanding of what was sought and what was achieved at the conference. The Istanbul conference was an international “happening” that began with a series of events before and during the conference itself. Habitat II adopted a Global Plan of Action (GPA) and an Istanbul Declaration (ID) as the official documents of the conference, summarizing the discussions and the outcomes. This paper is limited to the discussions and recommendations of the GPA on the issues of urban governance, which are gathered mainly in its part D, under the title “Capacity Building and Institutional Development.” To what extent does this chapter reflect an understanding of the realities of urban governance? What is the assessment of the new challenges in this regard, in the context of major political, economic, and social shifts across the world in the wake of increased globalization of trade, investment, and information?
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, Politics
  • Political Geography: Istanbul
  • Author: David Everatt
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: South Africa is one of the most unequal societies on earth. While all South Africans now share equal political rights, they have very different social, economic, and other needs. This is true among and between black South Africans. The black middle class and new ruling class elements have left the townships to live in formerly white-only suburbs, leaving townships more evenly poor. Resentment among squatters, backyard dwellers, and formal homeowners result from high levels of exploitation of these informal settlement residents by their (black) landlords. ANC appeals for township residents to pay their rent and service charges have been ignored. This divide between the black South Africans in turn impacts politics at the local level. Those living in backyard or informal dwellings lack an organizational home. Fear of reprisal from landlord-cum-political leaders prevents many poorer township residents from attending ANC meetings. At the bottom, below even the squatters, lie the migrants from outside South Africa, blamed for crime, dirt, disease and for taking away the few social and economic opportunities that exist. The ANC cannot promise a radical transformation of South African society or economy, bringing poorer citizens back into the fold with talk of dramatic redistribution.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Industrial Policy, Politics
  • Political Geography: Africa, South Africa
  • Author: Raquel Rolnik
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: One of the single most defining features of Brazilian cities today is their dual built environment: one landscape is produced by private entrepreneurs and contained within the framework of detailed urban legislation, and the other, three times larger, is self-produced by the poor and situated in a gray area between the legal and the illegal. In addition to being an expression of economic and social disparities, this contrast has profound implications for the form and function of the cities. The sprawl of what are here termed “precarious peripheries” has led to a great disconnection of poorly urbanized spaces from the city center where jobs and cultural and economic opportunities are concentrated. The effects of this persistent “territorial exclusion” are devastating and occur in both the peripheries and the city center.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Industrial Policy, Politics
  • Political Geography: Brazil, South America, Latin America
  • Author: Richard N. Cooper
  • Publication Date: 12-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: "Development" implies change over time. More specifically, the term implies that particular features of the society, the economy and the polity increase in magnitude with the passage of time.This essay treats development as the process of structural change. As societies develop, they transform: towns grow, industry expands, and per capita incomes rise as labor shifts from employment in agriculture to employment in industry (Kuznets 1966; Polanyi 1944; Chenery and Taylor 1968 ). One source of increased incomes is a growing stock of productive inputs and, in particular, of capital. As each worker gains access to an increased stock of capital, each becomes more productive and the level of output per capita rises. Another source is technical change. In industry, possibilities exist for increasing returns to scale and for complementarities that agriculture lacks. Labor employed in town gains access to technologies that are more productive than those in villages. The shift of employment from agriculture to industry and from village to town therefore results in a rise in per capita output.
  • Topic: Development, Ethnic Conflict, Migration
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Martin C. Libicki
  • Publication Date: 11-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The United States is midway through what may be called a revolution in military affairs (RMA). 9 This revolution opened in the 1970s with the development and refinement of precision-guided munitions 1° (PGMs), which can hit anything that can be located. It is likely to culminate with the multiplication and integration of the DOD C41SR assets, thereby creating a well-populated Grid. In the process, the physical battlespace will become illuminated better than ever. As this occurs, conventional warfare will change from force on force to hide-and-seek. Hence the need for a Grid capable of illuminating the battlespace, a case that rests on five tenets: With precision weaponry, seeing a target is tantamount to being able to kill it. The guidance for such weaponry is potentially shifting from shooters or internal sensors to externally provided information. Defenses exist against PGMs, but the link between seeing and hitting is likely to strengthen over time.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Robbin F. Laird, Holger H. Mey
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The revolution in military affairs (RMA) is an American concept that frames a debate about the restructuring of American military forces in the period of globalization of the American economy. A core task for U.S. allies is to seek to understand the American debate and to identify opportunities for and the risks to themselves in variant patterns of development of the American military in the years ahead.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Diane Paul, Larry Minear, Mark Frohardt
  • Publication Date: 01-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: This occasional paper highlights the practical challenges faced by humanitarian organizations in protecting civilians in today's armed conflicts. It understands the concept of protection to involve ensuring respect for the full range of human rights, which, enumerated in the United Nations Charter, are the birthright of every human being.
  • Topic: Human Rights, International Law
  • Political Geography: United Nations
  • Author: William G. O'Neill
  • Publication Date: 01-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: The term “human rights” evokes a wide variety of reactions. Many of those working in international development, commercial lending, and diplomatic institutions regard human rights as highly political and confrontational intrusions on their activities. Many in the international assistance community and the military view human rights as a threat to “neutrality” that may undermine access to populations needing assistance or the success of peacekeeping operations. Some governments in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa dismiss the concept of human rights as a western creation that fails to respect local culture and traditions and undermines state sovereignty. Perhaps the most favorable views of human rights are held by the international public, which is appalled by flagrant onslaughts against fundamental human decency and dignity represented by such practices as genocide, ethnic cleansing, and the use of starvation of civilian populations as a weapon of war.
  • Topic: Human Rights, War
  • Political Geography: Africa, Middle East, Asia
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: This report describes in detail The Carter Center's activities in China from July 1998 to January 1999 with a focus on the observation of China's village and township elections and recommendations to improve the quality of those elections. The report is divided into two parts. Part I is a report on the Center's observation of township elections in Chongqing. Part II covers the Center's activities with respect to village elections in cooperation with the Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA ).
  • Topic: Civil Society, Democratization, International Organization
  • Political Geography: China
  • Author: Bruce William Bennett
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: It is an all-too-familiar pattern for military forces. Lacking sufficient funds to finance across-the-board military modernization, the country appears to pursue only selective modernization and some force evolution. The majority of military equipment is therefore allowed to slip into an antiquated state. The same financial constraints limit force readiness, especially reducing the combat training essential for the force should it be suddenly thrust into wartime operations. This reduction is then exacerbated by a diversion of the force into peacetime assignments that bear little resemblance to its wartime missions. Commentators wonder whether these military forces have become hollow, with significantly reduced combat capabilities.
  • Political Geography: North Korea
  • Author: Ralph A. Cossa
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: A broad variety of multilateral security dialogue mechanisms has emerged in the Asia-Pacific region in recent years. These efforts at building trust and confidence, both at the official and at the nongovernmental or so-called "track two" level, have the potential for enhancing Northeast Asian regional security. All Northeast Asian nations express support for such efforts. The current trend toward multilateralism is also generally consistent with U.S. foreign policy objectives in Asia, albeit as an important complement to America's bilateral security arrangements (which remain the foundation of U.S. security policy in Asia).
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia, Northeast Asia
  • Author: Doug Bandow
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: To contain Soviet-led communism and, secondarily, to prevent a militarily resurgent Japan, Washington established a network of alliances, bases, and deployments throughout East Asia after World War II. By the 1990s the Soviet Union had imploded, China had become a reasonably restrained international player, and other communist states had lost their ideological edge. At the same time, the noncommunist nations had leaped ahead economically. Despite such momentous developments, however, U.S. policy remains fundamentally the same.
  • Political Geography: United States, China, East Asia, Soviet Union
  • Author: C.S. Eliot Kang
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: The Korean peninsula is crucial to Japanese security. Currently, the Japan-United States alliance is being reinvigorated to meet the continuing threat posed by North Korea as well as new challenges in the post-cold war era. The recently announced new defense cooperation guidelines outline the support the Japanese will extend to U.S. forces during peacetime, during an armed attack on Japan, and in emergencies "in areas surrounding Japan." In order to avoid unduly alarming China and to win public acceptance of the reformulation of the alliance in the absence of the kind of mortal threat once posed by the Soviet Union, the continuing danger posed by North Korea has been underlined. Yet, should the North Korean threat disappear, justifying the Japan-U.S. alliance will be that much more difficult. To forestall any danger of unraveling of the alliance, Japan must work with South Korea to formulate a new vision of the security relationship between Seoul and Tokyo that more closely integrates their common interests with those of their mutual ally, the United States.
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Soviet Union, Tokyo, Korea
  • Author: Il-Keun Park
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: China faces on its east the Tumen River and the Western Sea, located in the north and the west of Korea, respectively. China's Shandong Province is only 190 miles across the Western Sea from Korea. Chinese culture has affected Asian nations for 2,000 years, with Korea serving as a geostrategic intersection linking continental with maritime countries, and allowing the transmission of Chinese ideas. Thus, we can say that China has had a special relationship with Korea.
  • Political Geography: China, Korea
  • Author: Gregory C. Chow
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: It is now just over twenty years since China initiated its economic reform in 1978. Since then its average rate of growth of GDP has been a phenomenal 9.5 percent per year. This essay reviews the reform process, discusses the impact of the current Asian financial crisis, and attempts to assess the prospects of China's economy in the future.
  • Political Geography: China
  • Author: Chan-Mo Park
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: The twenty-first century will be characterized by informatization, globalization, and openness. In particular, the rapid development of the Internet is playing a great role in globalization, in that information flows on it across national boundaries, without time or content constraints.
  • Political Geography: North Korea
  • Author: Eiii Hang Shin, Moon-Gi Suh
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: This study examines the relationship between structural characteristics of business firms and their effectiveness in South Korea, using multivariate regression analysis. The objective is to analyze the relationships between organizational characteristics and financial structure. This study is not concerned with individual-level variables (for example, interaction patterns and role conflict) or psychological variables (motivation, individual stress), although these are also important aspects of organizations. The view of organizations in the present study is strongly influenced by the work of scholars who argue that organizations are characterized by structural relationships among interdependent attributes.
  • Political Geography: South Korea, Korea
39074. What Is KEDO?
  • Author: Desaix Anderson
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: The Korean peninsula, especially the demilitarized zone (DMZ) that splits it in two, is one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints. President Clinton called it "one of the scariest places on earth." In addition to the troops massed on the DMZ, the fragility of Northeast Asian security is underscored by North Korea's military and technological capability. The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), North Korea, has one of world's largest armies, a million men, with artillery capable of bombarding Seoul. In August 1998, the DPRK launched a Taepodong I missile, which has the range to hit anywhere in South Korea or Japan. With further development, such missiles could reach Alaska, Hawaii, or even the continental United States.
  • Political Geography: United States, North Korea, Korea, Northeast Asia
  • Author: Nathalie Tocci, Marc Houben
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Can Turkey's demands for equal treatment with EU member states be reconciled with the EU's demand for autonomous decision capacity? This commentary analyses the Turkish position and assesses the theoretical and practical possibilities for accommodating Turkey's demands in the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP).
  • Topic: NATO
  • Political Geography: Europe, Turkey, Middle East
  • Author: Daniel Gros
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: In terms of meeting the fiscal Maastricht criteria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are better placed today than were some of the current euro area members from the “Club Med” (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) at a comparable point in time leading up to their joining EMU. The CEE-3 should thus be able to qualify for full membership by early 2006, following a decision by the EU as early as 2005.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: Europe, Greece, Poland, Hungary, Spain, Italy, Portugal
  • Author: Daniel Gros
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Health, and not wealth, should be the decisive criterion when considering the prospects of the Central and Eastern European candidates for EU membership and the capacity of the EU to enlarge. Viewed from this perspective, the outlook is promising. The CEECs are still very poor, compared to most of the existing EU members, but they are also much more dynamic. Their growth rates are generally expected to remain around 4-5% for the foreseeable future, compared to about 2-3% for the EU. This still implies that full catch-up in terms of GDP per capita will take decades, rather than years, but full catch-up is not the relevant goal if one is concerned about enlargement. Experience in the EU has shown that problems are much more likely to arise from established rich member countries with stagnant economies (Belgium in the 1980s and part of the 1990s) than poor, but more dynamic states (e.g. Portugal and Ireland today). The fact that most of the so-called 'periphery' is now experiencing stronger growth than the 'core' confirms that EU integration benefits poorer countries even more.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: Europe, Belgium, Portugal, Ireland
  • Author: Christian Egenhofer, Jan Cornillie
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: With the cancellation of the Oslo ministerial mini-summit, the prospects for an early entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol are rapidly fading. Even if the US agrees to an outcome at a resumed COPbis in July, continued Congressional opposition and unresolved questions concerning the developing countries' commitments make US ratification highly implausible.
  • Topic: Environment, International Law, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Jorge Nuñez Ferrer
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The Berlin Summit has been concluded with the suspicious outcome in which every Head of State declares victory. The tone is not so victorious by the Presidency, however, which honestly declared that Germany didn't “win the lottery”. There is reason for suspicion if, after long and arduous discussions to reform policies and reduce EU expenditure, member states declare satisfaction at the result. Something must be amiss, if painful reforms appear not to hurt. In fact, after preliminary calculations and some political considerations, there are grounds to suspect that the reforms proposed are less than satisfactory.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: Europe, Germany, Berlin
  • Author: Daniel Gros
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The ECB has just published the opening balance sheet for the Eurosystem, which is the official name given to the ECB plus the 11 national central banks of the euro zone. All 15 national central banks are part of the ESCB, but the participation of the four outsiders is purely formal. The balance sheet, which is reproduced at the end of this Commentary, reveals two very interesting facts: During 1998, the national central banks of the euro zone increased their holdings of dollar foreign exchange reserves by the equivalent of about 38 bn euro. This means that they de facto intervened consistently to support the dollar during that year. The ECB starts with huge foreign exchange reserves: 237 bn euro plus gold worth 100 bn euro. This is much more than the amount held by the US Federal Reserve and constitutes a major share of the reserves held by all OECD countries.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Daniel Gros
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The outcome of the first round of wage negotiations in post-EMU Germany sheds some new light on the old question: What impact will the euro have on labour markets and unemployment? Economists would say that it depends on the structure of the bargaining process. In wage-setting, it seems that either one of the two extremes of full centralisation or complete fragmentation is conducive to low inflation and unemployment.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Europe, Germany
  • Author: Karel Lannoo
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: With the successful launch of the euro, the start of ESCB monetary policy operations and the operation of Target payment system, the previously national interbank bank markets have been integrated at once in a unified euro interbank market. Outstanding public debt was redenominated in euro, trading conventions harmonised and all EMU stock markets have started quoting in euro. This does not, however, bring us at once to a US-style capital market. Euroland remains profoundly different from the US in the weight of the regions and the importance of banks.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: Growth targets for emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by developing countries should be part of the effort to mitigate global climate change. This policy brief advances an approach for determining appropriate targets. They should be neither so tight as to retard economic development nor so generous as to confer enormous windfall gains. But where in this range should these targets be set? A fair allocation for potential new participants would fit the present pattern of emissions reductions agreed among industrialized countries at Kyoto in December 1997. Richer countries, in effect, agreed to make bigger sacrifices (on average) than did poor ones. Given uncertainty about the future, however, fixing the precise quantitative emission target now would create great risks regarding the ultimate stringency of the target. It would raise concerns that a target could turn out either unexpectedly stringent—unintentionally constraining economic development—or unexpectedly lax—resulting in emissions greater than in the absence of an agreement. Indexing emission targets to a country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth would moderate the effects of uncertainty.
  • Topic: International Relations, Emerging Markets, Environment
  • Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: The recent financial crises in many emerging market economies have raised anew questions about the appropriate exchange-rate regime and the use of capital controls as policy instruments. The use of both mechanisms should be tailored to each country's unique circumstances. Fixed exchange-rate mechanisms, such as dollarization (adopting the dollar as legal tender in place of the national currency), are suited to small open economies or those desperate to import monetary stability. Larger economies, such as the European Union (EU) and the United States, should allow their currencies to float. Intermediate regimes that fall between fixed- and floating-rate regimes—such as bands, baskets, and crawls (See Figure 1 for definitions)—are still appropriate for some countries. Certain well-targeted restrictions on the composition of capital flows might be appropriate for some emerging-market countries as temporary measures when inflows are particularly high.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Ivo H. Daalder
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: At the threshold of a new century, NATO needs a new purpose. A NATO maintained solely as a hedge against an uncertain future (including a possibly resurgent Russia) will become increasingly marginal to the interests of its members. A shift in emphasis to defending common global interests risks magnifying discord among Alliance members. Instead, NATO's purpose should now be to extend security and stability to all of Europe. This will require placing more emphasis on the ability to conduct crisis management operations in the region and taking practical, visible steps to keep the door to NATO membership wide open.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: William G. Gale, Alan J. Auerbach
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: Emerging federal budget surpluses have sparked calls for large-scale tax cuts that would be irresponsible and counterproductive. Surpluses over the next ten years are based on optimistic assumptions regarding revenues and spending. Even if they do materialize, the surpluses will exist only because government accounting obscures the growing cost of future liabilities. The government faces a large, long-term deficit, and tax cuts would make this problem worse. The proposed 10-percent income tax rate cut would provide disproportionately large benefits to wealthy households and little to lower income households. It would have little effect on economic growth, but would impose higher burdens on future generations, and would reduce future budget discipline by violating the budget rules. Moreover, for most families, tax burdens are already at their lowest level in twenty years. Saving the surplus, by paying down public debt, would help the economy much more than would tax cuts.
  • Topic: Government, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Paul C. Light
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: The past six years have witnessed the most significant reshaping of the federal workforce in recent history. On the one hand, government clearly has lost weight. The total number of full-time federal employees has declined, as has the number of federal middle-level managers. On the other hand, government has gotten much taller, at least as measured by the number of layers at the very top of the federal hierarchy. This changing shape means that ordinary Americans will be less likely to contact a federal employee when they call a government 800 number, write an office, or use a service. It also means that the nation's elected and appointed leaders will be further from the front lines, and less likely to know what the public is getting for its tax dollars.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Todd Sechser
  • Publication Date: 12-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: The United States has spent over $3 billion addressing the nuclear proliferation threat from Russia since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Programs managed by the Departments of Defense, Energy, and State have helped safeguard Russia's enormous stockpiles of nuclear material, dismantle nuclear-tipped missiles, and keep nuclear scientists employed in Russia and out of other nations' nuclear programs.
  • Topic: Security, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Jon B. Wolfsthal
  • Publication Date: 10-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: Russia's nuclear weapons complex is spread across 10 remote, closed and formerly secret “nuclear cities,” which employ almost 1 million scientists, engineers and technicians. Moscow's economic collapse has left these former “jewels” in the Russian nuclear crown struggling to survive, and workers with access to nuclear materials and expertise routinely go for months without getting paid. The U.S. Department of Energy, as part of the Clinton Administration's cooperative threat reduction efforts, has launched the Nuclear Cities Initiative (NCI) to reduce the proliferation risks created by the poor economic conditions in these closed cities. By promoting the development of private industry in these cities, NCI seeks to prevent a brain drain of Russian nuclear experts to would-be nuclear-weapon states.
  • Topic: Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Steve H. Hanke, Kurt Schuler
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: President Carlos Menem of Argentina has advocated replacing the Argentine peso with the dollar. Dollarization would benefit Argentina because it would eliminate the peso-dollar exchange-rate risk, lower interest rates, and stimulate economic growth.
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Argentina, South America, Latin America
  • Author: Ivan Eland, Timothy M. Beard
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: Although the end of the Cold War reduced the likelihood of a nuclear exchange between the superpowers, several smaller rogue states, through their dedicated efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles, have emerged as potential threats to U.S. national security. National Intelligence Estimate 95-19 stated that no new missile threats to the United States would develop before 2010. However, given the curious circumstances of the estimate's release and the many analytical faults contained in the document, its results have been questioned.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, National Security
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: C. Richard Nelson, Jr. Gillespie, Brandon Grove Jr., David E. McGiffert
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The implications of the transfer of the Panama Canal go well beyond U.S. relations with Panama. This complex transition provides an important lesson for Latin America and the rest of the world on how countries of vastly different size and outlook can work together. The success of this 20 year process lies mainly in first identifying the primary common interest of the United States, Panama and the major canal users: access to an open, safe and efficient canal. Important but secondary concerns, including U.S. military access to facilities in Panama, were addressed during the process but never were allowed to displace the primary interest. By focusing on this clear, compelling key objective, both Panama and the United States were able to accommodate fundamental changes in the political, economic and security context, including several changes in administrations, tough negotiations and even a military confrontation.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Latin America
  • Author: Roger Kirk, Jack M. Seymour Jr., John Lampe, Louis Sell
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Basic Factors Underlying a Regional Settlement 1. Any overall settlement in the Balkans should be area-wide and coordinated among the entities directly involved, the neighboring states, the key nations of the outside community, and the relevant political and economic international institutions. 2. It will have to include political arrangements, international security guarantees, and substantial economic assistance as a basis for genuine peace and reconciliation. 3. It must embrace generally accepted international standards, including respect for human rights and rights for ethnic minorities; right of return for all area refugees; rule of law; effective media freedom; and free elections supervised or, where necessary, organized by the international community. 4. The settlement should promote and institutionalize political and economic cooperation, regional trade and/or formal ties among the participating states and entities of the former Yugoslavia, and neighboring states as feasible, including the free flow of goods, labor and capital. 5. International assistance in reconstruction, economic reform and development of economic ties among the peoples of the region and with the European Community must be massive. It should, however, be designed to promote democratic institutions, market reform, adherence to peace agreements, and respect for human rights. 6. Such assistance should target the private sector, encourage local initiatives, and help governments pursue effective economic reform policies. It should seek to curtail corruption and the maintenance of unprofitable state industries. It should avoid encouraging international dependency. The purpose should be to build societies and practices conducive to self-reliance, international cooperation, and outside investment. Positive and negative lessons can be drawn from experiences in Bosnia. 7. The support of the broad population of Serbia will be necessary if peaceful and economically viable regional arrangements are to last. The reconstruction process implied in these arrangements will itself be an incentive for the Serbs to opt away from destructive nationalist policies and join in the regional reconstruction process. 8. Neither lasting peace in the Balkans nor democracy in Serbia can be achieved as long as Slobodan Milosevic remains in power. He has been indicted by the Tribunal in The Hague for crimes against humanity and his removal from power is a prime NATO objective. There are increasing and encouraging signs of popular Serb desire to be rid of Milosevic, but it is not certain that he will depart in the near future. 9. A regional settlement may have to be negotiated indirectly with, or imposed upon, Milosevic as the ruler of Serbia. It should nevertheless be made clear that the West condemns Milosevic\'s actions, that Serbia cannot resume its rightful place in Europe as long as it is governed by indicted war criminals, and that the West will help the people of Serbia in their efforts to bring forth new, democratic, cosmopolitan leadership in their country. 10. The Kosovar Albanians cannot be expected to live under Serbian control again for the foreseeable future. Arrangements short of formal independence such as an international protectorate or trusteeship are possible, indeed likely, for a transitional period. A more permanent and self-sustaining arrangement is highly desirable if it can be achieved without creating more instability in the former Yugoslav space and the neighboring area. 11. A credible international military presence is needed to encourage the return of the remaining Albanian-Kosovars, the continued residence of Serb-Kosovars and to maintain peace and order within Kosovo and on its borders. Such a presence will also be a lasting part of any transitional arrangement. Any foreseeable regional settlement will similarly require a prolonged foreign military presence. This settlement should, however, lay the foundation for an end to that presence by, among other things, providing for supervised demilitarization of the states and entities involved, and a comprehensive regional arms control agreement. 12. A central objective of any regional settlement should be to promote conditions that will encourage a stable political and military environment, economic growth, and increasing self-reliance. These changes will permit an end to the foreign military, political, and economic presence in the region, though no date for that termination should be set.
  • Topic: Security, Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Kosovo, Balkans
  • Author: C. Richard Nelson, James E. Goodby, Tomohisha Sakanaka, W. Neal Anderson, Tomohide Murai, Shinichi Ogawa
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The main challenge for Asia is to build a security community that transforms a legacy of military competition into security cooperation. This transformation will be difficult because of the high level of distrust among the states and considerable uncertainty about future relations. Asia lacks the kinds of developed, institutionalized multilateral security arrangements that contribute to transparency, confidence-building and long-term stability. Furthermore, a “ business as usual ” approach that focuses on managing bilateral relationships is unlikely to result in a security community. More attention needs to be devoted to multilateral security efforts. Without the reassurance of a network of cooperative arrangements, including verifiable arms limitations, potential adversaries may place their hopes in achieving unilateral military advantages. Such efforts could foster fears of regional domination and, in turn, a potential arms race that includes nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
  • Topic: Security, NATO
  • Political Geography: United States, Israel, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Donald L. Guertin, Richard E. Balzhiser, Christian Gobert, William J. Dirks, Joy C. Dunkerley, Stephen P. Pettibone
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Despite the recent global economic slowdown, the demand for energy services is bound to increase over the long term in order to provide improved living standards for growing populations, in particular in developing countries. In recognition of its unique characteristics, the demand for electricity will rise even faster than total energy. Several studies present scenarios that show a doubling of global installed capacity over the next twenty years.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia
  • Author: Jeni Klugman
  • Publication Date: 01-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: Complex humanitarian emergencies have caused widespread death and suffering over the last two decades. While recent tragedies in Bosnia, Rwanda and Angola have made the world more aware of the terrible human toll involved, the international community has yet to develop effective policy responses to stem such crises.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, Genocide, Human Rights, Migration, Politics
  • Political Geography: Bosnia, Rwanda, Angola
  • Author: Frank Ching, Lee Kuan Yew, George Hui, Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong
  • Publication Date: 10-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: During my yearly visits to Hong Kong over the last thirty years, I was struck by the upbeat, can-do spirit of its people. However troublesome the situation, such as the noisy demonstrations of the imitators of the Red Guards in 1966 and 1967, or the economic downturn caused by the sudden quadrupling of oil prices in 1973, Hong Kong people were not dismayed or despondent. So when I spent a few days in Hong Kong at the beginning of June this year, I was surprised by its completely different mood. The people I met seemed frustrated at finding themselves in a situation where the solutions were not obvious. Much of the present malaise in Hong Kong arises from the problems of a transition that proved more difficult than expected. In part it was because of the five years of the last governor's policies, aggravated by the Asian financial crisis. Until the territory has come through this transition phase it is not possible to make any long-term forecasts on Hong Kong's future.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Economics, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Israel, Hong Kong
  • Author: John V. Mitchell
  • Publication Date: 12-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: Current trends in transportation are unsustainable. A struggle for new means of mobility is beginning. Changes are inevitable. There is uncertainty about growth in the supply of fuel for vehicles after 2020. (See Briefing Paper No. 10, Changing Oil, by Norman Selley, forthcoming January 2000).The transport sector will be required to contribute to the reductions in GHG emissions required under the Kyoto Protocol. This will involve going beyond the 20-30% improvements envisaged by current voluntary commitments such as those by the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers in Europe, since such improvements extend trends which are already embedded in 'business as usual' projections.To manufacture clean petroleum fuels to protect urban air quality against increasing volumes of vehicle traffic will require increases in hydrogen inputs which cannot be achieved without significant increases in CO2 emissions (unless restrictions on the expansion of nuclear power are lifted).
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Environment, Science and Technology
  • Author: David Simon, Alexander Johnston
  • Publication Date: 12-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: Shortly before he became President of the 'new South Africa' in May 1994, Nelson Mandela stressed that his country's relations with the region's poorer and weaker neighbours would be characterized by 'sensitivity and restraint'. This declaration of intent was welcome given South Africa's traditional dominance as the hegemonic power during the apartheid era and the resulting crude and at times violent exploitation of its neighbours' dependence, in varying degree, on the Republic's economy for a wide range of goods and services, for transport links and a market for employment. Indeed, South Africa's accession to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in 1994 offered the promise of a new deal in regional relations, with the new member acting as an 'engine of growth' and as a cooperative and enthusiastic supporter of purposeful and sustained regional integration.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Christopher P. Hood
  • Publication Date: 11-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: Ishihara Shintaro, known for his strong views particularly on Japan's relationship with the United States, became Governor of Tokyo on 11 April 1999. This paper considers the significance of his election, and whether it symbolizes a rise in nationalism in Japan.
  • Topic: International Relations, Nationalism, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Israel, Tokyo