Roderick Parkes, Anna-Lena Kirch, and Serafine Dinkel
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Containing twelve scenarios for the world in 2030, this report offers insights into how the EU can maintain and build up its capacity to act in the face of the major disruptive changes that are likely to come over this decade. It is being released in the run-up to German elections in September 2021 that will serve as a kind of referendum on ten years of government-heavy crisis management.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Crisis Management, and Resilience
In tertiary prevention of Islamist extremism, civil society and governmental exit programs support individuals (and their families) who wish to disengage from violent extremist groups and distance themselves from extremist ideologies. Exit work and successful reintegration into society involves security agencies as well es very practical elements provided by municipal actors, public services, and civil society organizations. Effective cooperation between civil society and governmental actors including statutory bodies is crucial but can be challenging.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Government, Violent Extremism, and Islamism
Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, Alia Fakhry, and Victoria Rietig
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
South Africa’s migration policy and practice mirror developments in other countries of destination for migrants: South Africa faces increased immigration and growing anti-migrant sentiments, leading policymakers to adopt policies that prefer deterrence over inclusivity. Just like other major migration magnets, South Africa is open to free movement in principle, but is wary of the impact it would have on its domestic job market. Since all these challenges are familiar to European policymakers, they should look more closely at the migration successes (and failures) of their “other” African neighbor.
The relationship between the European Union and Egypt on migration is as uncomfortable for Europe as it is unavoidable. The EU’s goal of reducing irregular migration by working with actual and potential transit countries around Europe has provided Egypt with greater leverage over its European neighbors – a development that worries not only human rights advocates, but many actors who follow the actions of the country’s authoritarian regime.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Migration, Authoritarianism, European Union, Refugees, and Borders
Shahin Vallée, Jérémie Cohen-Setton, and Dominik Buhl
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Germany’s plan to return to its debt brake creates a serious risk of premature fiscal tightening. Given that the fiscal divide between Europe and the US will widen sharply in 2021, a hasty return to European and German fiscal rules would stifle recovery and undermine efforts to rebuild transatlantic ties in trade and macroeconomic cooperation. This paper proposes several practical options to attenuate the fiscal drag associated with a return to the debt brake and calls for a broad debate on its reform.
Topic:
Debt, European Union, Finance, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
After a decade of crisis, the EU now routinely uses futures methods to anticipate the unexpected. Its aim is to address its blind spots. This paper details our experience of designing a foresight exercise to help EU diplomats face up to one of the most ingrained types of blind spot: a taboo issue. But our experience showed instead the dangers of such exercises. Far from needing encouragement to address a taboo, our target audience wanted an excuse to do so, reflecting a shift to a more “geopolitical EU.”
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, European Union, and Strategic Planning
Supporting the rule of law has been central to the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) policy since 2009. There has been very limited success in this, however. The EU’s core problem is what is usually its strength: addressing a highly politicized area through a technical approach. EU policymakers need to acknowledge that their political silence is permitting ruling elites in EaP countries to block progress in the rule of law and that the EU is failing to call out pervasive systems of informality there.
Topic:
Diplomacy, European Union, Partnerships, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and United States of America
Tax avoidance by multinational corporations has become a central feature of the world economy. After decades of opposition, the US wants to set a global minimum corporation tax rate and limit tax avoidance, but it will need all of Europe to stand behind it. A historic 130-country OECD tax agreement is giving some hope but both sides of the Atlantic will need to confront deeply rooted interests if they want to implement the deal and build a new cooperative tax reform framework.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Reform, Economy, Transatlantic Relations, Corporate Tax, and OECD
The EU and the United States are expected to launch a Trade and Technology Council (TTC) on the sidelines of the US-EU Summit in mid-June, which could present a rare opportunity to jumpstart the EU-US technology relationship. Against the backdrop of rapid technological change, a transatlantic digital technology community could be a 21st-century answer to the Coal and Steal Community – a big democratic project that reaches across borders, knits like-minded communities together in a manner that reinforces shared values, and codifies standards of market access, increased interdependence, and intensified political dialogue.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, European Union, Democracy, and Transatlantic Relations
The ECB has been forced – in part by the COVID-19 crisis – to review its bilateral arrangements with foreign central banks. But the recent changes made by the ECB fall short of the European Commission’s ambitions to boost the international role of the euro. We suggest the ECB should put in place an alternative three-pillar framework to improve the international role of the ECB and cement its pivotal role in the international financial system.
Topic:
European Union, Banks, International System, and European Commission