Publication Year: within 25 Years and within 3 Years / Journal:

12101. Forging a Path Forward on US Nuclear Waste Management: Options for Policy Makers

Author:: Matt Bowen
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Nuclear power is considered in many countries a critical facet to maintaining reliable access to electricity during a global transition to low-carbon energy sources. One challenge to its potential in the United States, however, is the current standstill regarding a disposal pathway for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) from commercial reactors. This impasse has a negative bearing on nuclear energy’s ability to supply more zero-carbon electricity and may cost US taxpayers tens of billions of dollars in government liability for failing to meet contractual obligations to take possession of the waste from utilities. Despite the scientific community assessing that commercial SNF and other high-level radioactive waste (HLW), such as from defense activities, can be safely isolated in deep underground repositories, US efforts to license and operate one have flatlined. The original plan for siting at least two repositories for such waste was abandoned first by DOE and then by Congress. Yucca Mountain in Nevada was designated in law as the nation’s sole potential disposal site by Congress in 1987, fomenting the state’s opposition to the project. As a result of that opposition, Congress has not funded the project since 2010. Still, progress has been made over the last few decades in nuclear waste disposal programs in countries such as Finland, Sweden, and Canada. And the United States has seen the successful opening and operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico to dispose of generally less radioactive but long-lived transuranic nuclear waste from defense activities. Such programs offer insights for how the United States can try to resolve the challenges with commercial nuclear waste disposal and potentially alleviate one obstacle to wider adoption of nuclear energy to decarbonize the US economy. This report, part of wider work on nuclear energy at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, explains how the United States reached its current stalemate over nuclear waste disposal. It then examines productive approaches in other countries and a few domestic ones that could guide US policy makers through options for improving the prospects of SNF and HLW disposal going forward
Topic:: Energy Policy, Nuclear Power, and Nuclear Waste
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

12102. Energy Transition Fact Sheet: Pathways to 100% Clean Electricity

Author:: Center on Global Energy Policy
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: In order to decarbonize the US economy at a reasonable cost and on an accelerated timeline, the country needs to both grow and rapidly decarbonize the power sector. This process will require many new technologies that support an affordable, equitable, and achievable transition. Expanding the clean-electricity focus beyond variable renewable technologies to include other types of zero-carbon power—as well as investing in the transmission and distribution grid that delivers this power to communities around the country—will allow the US to build a reliable, secure, and sustainable zero-carbon power system.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Renewable Energy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12103. The Role of Corporate Renewable Power Purchase Agreements in Supporting US Wind and Solar Deployment

Author:: James Kobus, Ali Narshallah, and Jim Guidera
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: In recent years, many of the world’s biggest corporations, including Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and Apple, have pledged to power their businesses with increasing amounts of renewable energy in order to reduce their carbon footprints and contribute to efforts to address climate change. Such efforts have had an encouraging impact on US power sector decarbonization, with a material and increasing share of US wind and solar deployments now driven by the procurement preferences of corporate customers. The vast majority of corporate procurement of renewable energy has been secured via power purchase agreements (PPAs). Going forward, a wider universe of companies is expected to look to such PPA agreements as a means of contributing to a low-carbon future, raising the question of how substantial these initiatives might be in supporting the overall transition to zero-carbon electricity. Indeed, a number of positive underlying trends are likely to facilitate continued growth in the corporate renewables PPA market. For example, electricity demand in the technology sector continues to grow rapidly, while renewables PPA penetration in the commercial and industrial sectors more broadly remains low, with room to grow. Additionally, expectations of continued declines in the costs of solar and wind technologies are likely to facilitate more procurement. Lastly, US companies are facing increased pressure from customers, employees, and institutional investors to improve their greenhouse gas emissions profiles. At the same time, certain factors may constrain the size of the PPA market, such as market regulations that limit the feasibility of PPAs in certain regions and the need for renewable PPA prices to be competitive relative to wholesale power prices. Scale and creditworthiness requirements can also limit the universe of potential corporate buyers, and the financial risks brought about when signing long-term contracts may further deter some market participants. Finally, companies increasingly have alternative emission reduction mechanisms at their disposal, such as renewables energy credits (RECs), carbon offsets, and green tariff programs. This student-led paper, from the Power Sector and Renewables Research Initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, explores the drivers influencing the renewables PPA market and assesses whether these procurement initiatives by nonutility corporations are likely to continue growing in the United States at a rapid enough pace to support power sector deep decarbonization goals. The analysis finds that while robust private sector participation in recent years has been encouraging, the potential market size going forward may be smaller than previously projected, highlighting the need for comprehensive policy frameworks to support power sector decarbonization.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Renewable Energy, Wind Power, and Solar Power
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12104. Approaches for Supporting Smallholders in the Global South: Contentious Issues, Experiences, Syntheses

Author:: Theo Rauch and Michael Brüntrup
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: There is a widely held consensus that it will not be possible to feed the world without the help of the smallholders of Africa, Latin America and Asia, who number up to 570 million farms or 2 billion people. Given the sheer size of this figure alone, the sustainable development of smallholder farming will be key to achieving a range of other sustainability goals.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Global South

12105. Blockchain Technology in Supply Chains – What are the Opportunities for Sustainable Development?

Author:: Katharina Krings and Jakob Schwab
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: While blockchain technology (BT) has gained a great deal of publicity for its use in cryptocurrencies, another area of BT application has emerged away from the public eye, namely supply chains. Due to the increasing fragmentation and globalisation of supply chains in recent years, many products have to pass through countless production steps worldwide (from raw material extraction to the point of sale). Ensuring the quality and sustainability of production in preceding steps is a major challenge for many firms and thus, ultimately, also for the consumer. BT offers potential for achieving significant progress on this front. Put simply, the blockchain makes it possible to verify data decentralised within a network, store it in a tamper-proof and traceable format and make it accessible to all members of a network.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Cryptocurrencies, Sustainability, and Blockchain
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12106. What Are the Distributional Implications of Climate Policies? Recent Evidence from Developing Countries

Author:: Daniele Malerba
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: To avoid catastrophic effects on natural and human systems, bold action needs to be taken rapidly to mitigate climate change. Despite this urgency, the currently implemented and planned climate mitigation policies are not sufficient to meet the global targets set in Paris in 2015. One reason for their current inadequate rollout is their perceived negative distributional effects: by increasing the price of goods, climate mitigation policies may increase both poverty and inequality. In addition, they may disrupt labour markets and increase unemployment, especially in sectors and areas dependent on fossil fuels. As a result, public protests in many countries have so far blocked or delayed the implementation of climate policies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, and Policy Implementation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12107. Assessing Potential Effects of Development Cooperation on Inequality

Author:: Mario Negre
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: With inequality reduction now being officially and broadly recognised as a key development objective with its own Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 10), there is a need for simple, economical and quick methodologies with which to focus on this area and assess progress. This paper presents such a methodology, which allows a rough assessment of the potential impacts of development cooperation on income, consumption and wealth inequality. This is important, as a rigorous causal analysis of the contribution development cooperation makes to reducing a partner country’s inequality is complex and costly. First, the relative contribution of targeted development cooperation programmes and projects to the economies of partner countries tends to be small (though admittedly not in all cases). Second, a myriad of factors contribute to changes in inequality in any given country, and assessing the impact of all of them is a complex, imprecise, time-consuming and resource-intensive exercise.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Inequality, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12108. The Case for Greater Project-Level Transparency of the UN’s Development Work

Author:: Max Otto Baumann
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: There is a case to be made for greater transparency of the United Nations’ (UN) development work at the country level. Transparency can, in the simplest terms, be defined as the quality of being open to public scrutiny. Despite improvements in recent years, UN organisations still only partially meet this standard. Only the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and, with limitations, the World Food Programme (WFP) systematically publish basic project parameters such as project documents, funding data and evaluations. Others do not even publish project lists. Only the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) publishes evaluations – a key source on performance – in an easily accessible way next to programme or project information. Lack of project transparency constitutes not only a failure to operate openly in an exemplary way, as should be expected of the UN as a public institution with aspirations to play a leadership role in global development. It also undermines in very practical ways the development purposes that UN organisations were set up for: It reduces their accountability to the stakeholders they serve, including executive boards and local actors; it hampers the coordination of aid activities across and beyond the UN; and it undermines the learning from both successes and failures.
Topic:: Development, United Nations, Transparency, and World Food Program (WFP)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12109. Tunisian Democracy 10 Years after the Revolution: A Tale of Two Experiences

Author:: Laryssa Chomiak
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: At the 10-year anniversary of the Tunisian Revolution, which toppled decades of dictatorship and repositioned discussions about democracy across the Middle East and North Africa, the democratic transition in Tunisia is in flux, or rather at an impasse. On the one hand, Tunisia is celebrated as the lone democratic success story of the 2011 Arab Uprisings, based on multiple cycles of free and fair elections. On the other hand, serious domestic political agitation over the last decade, coupled with deep structural inequalities and a rise in public perceptions of corruption in government, has nearly derailed its course towards democratic consolidation and stability. Democratisation in Tunisia has hinged on the widely celebrated mechanism of consensus among political adversaries in parliament, and among key political and civil society actors. Yet, instead of achieving consensus on critical political and economic-structural reforms, compromise-based arrangements have fallen apart due to intense party infighting, regular resignations of governments, and enormous public pressure resulting from a stagnating economy and lack of vision for comprehensive and equitable economic reform. The effect has been sustained infighting over economic and social policy, which in turn has resulted in diminishing public trust in political parties and new democratic institutions, an all-time low level of satisfaction with the government’s performance and a significant rise in contentious politics, particularly between 2019 and 2021. The proliferation of micro-parties (209 registered political parties for a population of 11.8 million) has resulted in confusion among the electorate, while the economic reality of a suffocating international debt crisis, which has only been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, has rendered levels of public trust in government to an all-time low.
Topic:: Reform, Democracy, Arab Spring, Revolution, and Transition
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

12110. The Untapped Potential of Global Climate Funds for Investing in Social Protection

Author:: Mariya Aleksandrova
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Social protection plays a central role in achieving several of the social and environmental goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. As a result, this policy area is gaining increased recognition at the nexus of global climate change and development debates. Various social protection instruments are deemed to have the potential to increase the coping, adaptive and transformative capacities of vulnerable groups to face the impacts of climate change, facilitate a just transition to a green economy and help achieve environmental protection objectives, build intergenerational resilience and address non-economic climate impacts. Nevertheless, many developing countries that are vulnerable to climate change have underdeveloped social protection systems that are yet to be climate proofed. This can be done by incorporating climate change risks and opportunities into social protection policies, strategies and mechanisms. There is a large financing gap when it comes to increasing social protection coverage, establishing national social protection floors and mainstreaming climate risk into the sector. This necessitates substantial and additional sources of financing. This briefing paper discusses the current and future potential of the core multilateral climate funds established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in financing social protection in response to climate change. It further emphasises the importance of integrating social protection in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to access climate finance and provides recommendations for governments, development cooperation entities and funding institutions.
Topic:: Climate Change, United Nations, Climate Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Investment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12111. COVID-19 and Conservation: Crisis Response Strategies that Benefit People and Nature

Author:: Ina Lehmann, César Rodríguez Garavito, and Anna Spenceley
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic is a global human health crisis that is deeply intertwined with the global biodiversity crisis. It originated when a zoonotic virus spilled over from wild animals to humans. Viruses can spread easily in disturbed ecosystems, and with increasing contact between humans and wildlife the risk of contagion grows. Conservation is crucial to reduce the risks of future pandemics, but the current pandemic also impacts on conservation in many ways. In this Briefing Paper we suggest strategies to alleviate the pandemic’s adverse effects on conservation in the Global South. Many zoonoses originate there, and livelihoods are strongly dependent on natural resources. The paper considers the pandemic’s overarching economic implica-tions for protected and other conserved areas, and specific ramifications for the tourism and wildlife trade sectors, which are closely related to these areas. As economies shrink, natural resources come under pressure from various sides. Financial resources are reallocated from the conservation to the health sector, countries decrease environmental protection standards to boost economic recovery, and poor people in rural regions resort to protected wild resources as a subsistence strategy. Together, these trends speed up the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services and create supportive conditions for the emergence of zoonotic disease and the undermining of livelihoods.
Topic:: Environment, Natural Resources, Nature, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12112. Resilience through Placemaking: Public Spaces in Rotterdam’s Climate Adaptation Approach

Author:: Katherine Peinhardt
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Public spaces are an often-overlooked opportunity for urban climate adaptation. It is increasingly clear that the unique role of public spaces in civic life positions them to enhance not only physical resilience, but also to enhance the type of social cohesion that helps communities bounce back.
Topic:: Climate Change, Social Cohesion, Resilience, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Europe and Netherlands

12113. Governance of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus for an Integrated Implementation of the 2030 Agenda

Author:: Srinivasa Reddy Srigiri and Ines Dombrowsky
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Understanding the conditions for coordination in the WEFNexus is key to achieving the 2030Agenda. We provide a framework for analysing nexus governance from a polycentricity perspective, which can be useful in formulating coherent strategies for the integrated implementation of the SDGs.
Topic:: Energy Policy, United Nations, Water, Food, Governance, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12114. Can Integrated Social Protection Programmes Affect Social Cohesion? Mixed-Methods Evidence from Malawi

Author:: Francesco Burchi and Federico Roscioli
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Using a mixed-method approach we show the impacts of an integrated social protection programme on social cohesion in Malawi. We find no concrete effect of the lump-sum transfer; in contrast, the business training enhances social cohesion especially when accompanied by participation in saving groups.
Topic:: Poverty, Finance, Business, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:: Africa and Malawi

12115. A Behavioural Perspective on the Drivers of Migration: Studying Economic and Social Preferences Using the Gallup World Poll

Author:: Katrin Klöble
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper addresses the self-selection of potential migrants. In particular, the study examines whether risk and time preferences explain a significant proportion in the movement heterogeneity of individuals. It is further intended to shed light on the role of social preferences (trust, altruism, reciprocity) as potential migratory determinants. By making use of a unique cross-sectional data set on migration intentions (Gallup World Poll) and experimentally-validated preferences (the Global Preference Survey) covering 70 countries worldwide, a probit model is estimated. The empirical results provide evidence that potential migrants exhibit higher levels of risk-taking and patience than their counterparts who stay at home (the stayers). This holds true across differing countries with various cultural backgrounds and income levels. Trust and negative reciprocity are found to be significantly related to migration aspirations as well. Yet conclusive clarifications still remain necessary, providing impetuses for future research.
Topic:: Economics, Migration, Risk, and Polls
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12116. Puzzles of Political Change in the Middle East: Political Liberalisation, Authoritarian Resilience and the Question of Systemic Change

Author:: Oliver Schlumberger
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The discussion paper deals with two questions: (i) Have the changes witnessed in the Arab region since 2010/-11 led to systemic transitions? - and, since the question is negated: Have political changes made systemic transitions more likely than before?
Topic:: Politics, Authoritarianism, Resilience, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: Middle East

12117. The Impact of Patient Capital on Job Quality, Investments and Firm Performance: Cross-Country Evidence on Long-Term Finance

Author:: Christoph Sommer
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Long-term finance is not only important for development and growth, but also has the potential to contribute to better jobs. This paper provides empirical evidence to what extent long-term loans affect job quality, firms’ investments in fixed assets and innovation, as well as firm performance.
Topic:: Finance, Economic Growth, Investment, and Capital
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12118. Social Cohesion After Armed Conflict: A Literature Review

Author:: Charlotte Fiedler and Christopher Rohles
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper brings together 39 academic studies on how armed conflict affects social cohesion. Reviewing the literature shows that conflict mostly harms social cohesion. However, this review also points toward several important caveats as well as blind-spots of the current literature.
Topic:: Academia, Literature Review, Social Cohesion, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12119. Navigating Through an External Agenda and Internal Preferences: Ghana’s National Migration Policy

Author:: Nadine Segadlo
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of Ghana’s National Migration Policy (NMP). A major finding is that the NMP does not primarily respond to a perceived problem related to migration in Ghana but it rather pursues the migration related interests of the European Union (EU).
Topic:: Migration, European Union, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

12120. What Have We Learned About Learning? Unpacking the Relationship Between Knowledge and Organisational Change in Development Agencies

Author:: Pablo Yanguas
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Development practitioners learn, their organisations not so much. In this paper, Pablo Yanguas finds little evidence for the “learning hypothesis” that knowledge makes development agencies more effective. As we near 2030, the role of M&E, research, and adaptive approaches may need to be reassessed.
Topic:: Development and Management
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12121. The Covid-19 Pandemic and Structural Transformation in Africa: Evidence for Action

Author:: Julia Leininger, Christoph Strupat, Yonas Adeto, Abebe Shimeles, and Wilson Wasike
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Direct and indirect effects' of the Covid-19 pandemic on the prospects of structural transformation in Africa are at the core of this study. It is comprehensive and identifies patterns of country groups. Social cohesion matters for effective policy responses and longer-term sustainable development.
Topic:: Sustainable Development Goals, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

12122. Subsidy Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa: Strategic Options and Their Consequences for the Social Contract

Author:: Georgeta Vidican Auktor and Markus Loewe
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Budgetary constraints forced Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia to reduce energy and food subsidy after 2010 but they applied different strategies, thereby transforming their existing, quite akin social contracts into different new ones delivering more protection, provision or participation for citizens.
Topic:: Reform, Social Contract, Participation, and Subsidies
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

12123. Murky Trade Waters: Regional Tariff Commitments and Non-Tariff Measures in Africa

Author:: Frederik Stender and Tim Vogel
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Regional tariff commitments have successfully reduced intra-African applied tariffs but they also sharply reduced the tariff policy space within Africa. Has this come at the expense of the prevalence of non-tariff measures? What are the implications for the AfCFTA?
Topic:: Tariffs, Trade, Non-Tariff Measures, and Regional Economy
Political Geography:: Africa

12124. Reforming European Economic Policies

Author:: Olivier Marty and Damien Ientile
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Despite the European Union's ambitious response, the current crisis is a stark reminder of a nagging problem: the challenge, in practice, to the principles and concepts governing major European economic policies. This situation can be seen in monetary policy, budgetary rules, trade policy, competition, the European budget and the structure of the euro zone. It fuels resentment between Member States and populations and, paradoxically, it encourages economic divergence. It is also undermining the legibility and credibility of European action in the eyes of the public. It therefore would seem advisable to reform the European economic framework in a pragmatic rather than radical way.
Topic:: Reform, Budget, Economic Policy, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

12125. Protecting checks and balances to save the Rule of Law

Author:: Eric Maurice
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: For half a decade, the Polish government has been reshaping the country's judicial system in a process described by the European Union as a "threat to the rule of law". Despite numerous Council of Europe reports and resolutions, several infringement proceedings and decisions of the Court of Justice of the European Union (ECJ), and the unprecedented activation of the so-called Article 7 procedure of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), the transformation of the judiciary into relays of political power has continued and accelerated since the Law and Justice Party (PiS) won a new term in 2019 and the reelection of President Andrzej Duda in 2020, pushing Poland to the limits of the European legal order.
Topic:: Government, European Union, Courts, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

12126. The Governance of the European Defence Fund

Author:: Sarah Brichet, Hugo Chouarbi, Marie Dénoue, Valérian Frossard, Armony Laurent, Nicolas Libert, Anne-Flore Magnuszewski, Pauline Maillard, and Juliette Rolin
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The launch of the European Defence Fund is a true step forward. Its objective is to facilitate the emergence of a European defence industrial and technological base through cooperation between European industrialists and thus reduce European "capability bottlenecks" in the field of military equipment while attempting to increase the Union's "strategic autonomy". With a budget of €7 billion under the EU's new multi-annual budget, a new Directorate General, DG DEFIS, will be responsible for its management, under the supervision of the European Commissioner for the Internal Market, Thierry Breton. At the heart of European institutional and conceptual transformations, its operation and management are of particular importance.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, Governance, and Industry
Political Geography:: Europe

12127. The European Trade Policy in the time of Covid-19: Adaptation or change of paradigm?

Author:: Danièle Hervieu-Léger
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Crises reveal the state of a policy, reveal its ambiguities, strengths and shortcomings, and sometimes force a redefinition or clarification of its guiding principles to ensure its sustainability, if not its survival. Although at the height of the crisis, there is a reflex to completely overhaul what already exists, the constants and structuring considerations quickly tend to dampen the ardour for reform.
Topic:: Reform, European Union, Trade, COVID-19, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Europe

12128. The Eastern Partnership: between resilience and interference

Author:: Pierre Mirel
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the USSR were supposed to usher in a golden age in which liberal democracy and a market economy would naturally spread throughout the European continent. On the strength of this optimism, the European Union concluded accession negotiations with ten countries between 2003 and 2005, opened them to Croatia and Turkey, promised the same to the Western Balkans and launched the Neighbourhood Policy in the East and the South. Initiated in 2004, this policy intended to ensure 'stability and prosperity' on the European Union’s new borders after the accession of the Central and Eastern European countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Partnerships, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

12129. The impact of Covid-19 on posted workers: the new ‘posting framework’

Author:: Sachka Stefanova-Behlert and Martina Menghi
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: We live at a time of deep and radical transformations. The pandemic has accelerated many of the changes that were already underway and has brought new challenges to the surface. Among the most affected realms of our societies, we undoubtedly find work and the freedom of movement of people. In Europe, it is precisely at the intersection of these two elements that the posting of workers lays. In this field, we are also at a crucial moment because the pandemic arrived just a few months before the deadline for the implementation of the changes related to the revision of the Posting of Workers Directive. Hence, it has become even more urgent to understand how all these changes have impacted the posting of workers as well as propose solutions to facilitate workers and companies in this adaptation path. That is key if we are to safeguard an important instrument of the European single market. This is exactly the merit of this article and its two co-authors: offering a first and clear account of the characteristics of posting of workers during the pandemic, identifying the main challenges faced by Member States, EU institutions and businesses, while also identifying some potential future developments, despite the climate of great uncertainty surrounding us.
Topic:: European Union, Crisis Management, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

12130. EU-Africa relations in the light of the Covid-19 pandemic. State of play and prospects

Author:: Alexandre Kateb
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: According to official statistics, the African continent has been relatively spared by the Covid-19 pandemic compared to Europe, America and Asia. The factors behind the low incidence of coronavirus in Africa are not fully understood. According to the WHO, the African continent has benefited from certain structural factors such as the limited international connectivity of most African countries, with the exception of some regional "hubs" such as Johannesburg, Casablanca, Addis Ababa and Nairobi. Incidentally, the most 'connected' African countries such as Morocco and South Africa have incurred the highest prevalence rates of Covid-19, which may lend credence to this explanation.
Topic:: International Relations, European Union, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

12131. Public development aid should refocus on agriculture and education in Africa

Author:: Louis Caudron
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: On 18 December 2020, the European Commission welcomed the political agreement reached between the European Parliament and the Member States allocating €79.5 billion to a new Neighbourhood, Development Cooperation and International Cooperation Instrument (NDCI) for the period 2021- 2027. Since its creation, the European Union has been a major player in public aid granted by rich countries to developing countries. The European Development Fund (EDF) was launched by the Treaty of Rome in 1957 and for decades provided aid to the former colonies in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific (ACP). The eleventh EDF, covering the period 2014- 2020 with a budget of €30.5 billion, will be replaced by the NDICI (Neighbourhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument). The Union and its Member States are the world's largest donor of official development assistance. Their contribution of €74.4 billion in 2018 represents more than half of the OECD countries’ Official Development Assistance ($150 billion in 2018).
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Education, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

12132. De-Securitising and Re-Prioritising EU-Iraq Relations

Author:: Flavio Fusco
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Located at the heart of the Middle East, connecting the Levant to the Persian Gulf, Iraq has always been at the centre of regional dynamics. Yet, the country is today reduced to a quasi-failed state fundamentally damaged in its political, social and economic fabric, with long-term consequences that trace a fil rouge from the 2003 US-led invasion to the emergence of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) and the country’s current structural fragility.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and United States of America

12133. COVID-19 and the Global Vaccine Race

Author:: Lorenza Errighi
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: If 2020 was the year of “mask diplomacy”, as countries raced to tackle the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and acquire the necessary protective gear and equipment, 2021 is likely to be remembered as the year of “vaccine diplomacy”. Growing competition between states to secure the necessary quantities of vaccines to inoculate their population has already become an established feature of the post-COVID international system and such trends are only likely to increase in the near future. It normally takes up to a decade to transition from the development and testing of a vaccine in a laboratory to its large-scale global distribution. Despite current challenges, the speed of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns is unprecedented. To put an end to the current pandemic – which in one year has led to the loss of 2.6 million lives and triggered the worst economic recession since the Second World War – the goal is to ensure the widest immunisation of the world population in a timeframe of 12 to 18 months. In this context, COVID vaccines emerge as instruments of soft power, as they symbolise, on the one hand, scientific and technological supremacy and, on the other, means to support existing and emerging foreign policy partnerships and alliances with relevant geopolitical implications. From their experimentation in laboratories, to their purchase and distribution, the vaccine has emerged as a significant tool for competition between powers, often associated with the promotion of competing developmental and governance models across third countries.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12134. The Plight of the Western Balkans Is a Wake-up Call for Europe

Author:: Vedran Džihić and Paul Schmidt
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In societies devastated by the pandemic, the EU needs to leave its conventional tool-box behind and urgently speed up the Europeanisation of its neighbours in Southeast Europe. The coronavirus pandemic has deepened the vulnerabilities affecting Western Balkan countries and exposed the weakness of their state institutions, especially in the health sector and social protection. At the same time, related to the limited effectiveness of the EU enlargement process over the past years, the progress of reforms has stagnated and some countries have even experienced concerning regressions in the rule of law. The outbreak of the coronavirus crisis has meanwhile increased the presence of other geopolitical players in the region, mainly in the context of competition over vaccinations, not only of China but also of Russia and the United Arab Emirates. Awareness is growing that the EU and the West is not the only available partner. As other powers not known for their democratic practices use or misuse the Western Balkans to promote their interests, the vision of a free, democratic and truly European Balkans is no longer self-evident.
Topic:: European Union, Institutions, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

12135. From Tectonic Shifts to Winds of Change in North Africa and the Middle East: Europe’s Role

Author:: Nathalie Tocci, Riccardo Alcaro, Francesca Caruso, Silvia Colombo, Dario Cristiani, Andrea Dessì, Flavio Fusco, and Daniela Huber
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Winds of change are blowing in North Africa and the Middle East. They originate from Washington, where the new Biden administration is expected to abandon its predecessor’s zerosum, erratic approach and take steps towards supporting regional balances and cooperation. Effects are visible especially in the Gulf, with the US pondering its options to re-activate nuclear diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates grudgingly agreeing to put their feud with Qatar on ice. One way or another, these winds of change are working their way through the Levant, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya. Admittedly, they are still feeble and can easily fade out like a morning breeze. Were that to happen, Europeans would be amongst the most affected – aside, of course, from regional populations themselves. It is now high time for the EU and its member states to leave the backseat they have (un)comfortably been sitting in for years, seize the opportunity of a cooperative US administration and work to play a more proactive role in North Africa and the Middle East commensurate with their considerable financial, diplomatic and military resources.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Affairs, and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America

12136. The Conference on the Future of Europe: Tackling Differentiated Integration

Author:: Nicoletta Pirozzi
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The European Union is struggling to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, which has swept through European societies and economies, causing more than 500,000 deaths (and counting) and a GDP downturn of –6.4 per cent in 2020. This is the third big crisis – and possibly the most dramatic – to impact the EU over the last 12 years, following the economic and financial crisis in 2008– 2010 and the extraordinary influx of migrants arriving on European shores in 2015–2016. All these crises produced asymmetrical consequences on the member countries and citizens. The already marked differences among member states have been exacerbated, making a unified response by EU institutions difficult in the process and suboptimal in the outcome. Indeed, especially during the first wave of the pandemic in Europe, the actions and statements of national leaders revealed a deep rift within the EU and the Eurozone, leading to nationalistic moves in border control and the export of medical supplies. Citizens were therefore exposed to the negative consequences of a Union with limited powers in sectors such as health and crisis management. Meanwhile, important decisions such as the approval of the Next Generation EU package and the new budget for 2021– 2027 risked ending in failure due to the opposition of some member states.
Topic:: Regional Integration, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

12137. Reviving and Reorienting Growth after the Pandemic: The Role of Local Infrastructure Investments

Author:: Nicola Bilotta
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The last decade has witnessed a progressive change in what had long been considered global priorities for achieving growth. The global financial crisis of 2007–2008 and the following European sovereign debt crises of 2011–2012 have brought to light important pitfalls in the functioning of globalized financial markets. Trade and financial liberalization policies have at times caused severe strains in some communities, raising concerns over the effects of rapid increases in international integration. Environmental and social risks have come to the forefront of the policy debate. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought enormous challenges to what was the normal way of living. All these events have had far-reaching consequences on the global economy. Currently, the world is facing at least three major shocks that are affecting health (COVID-19), prosperity (the recession) and the planet (climate change). These have been chosen as the three keywords for Italy’s G20 Presidency. These shocks are different in nature and have very diverse effects across countries, regions and municipalities. This calls for differentiated and targeted responses that take into account the specific needs of individual communities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Infrastructure, G20, Economic Growth, Investment, Integration, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe, India, Vietnam, Philippines, United States of America, and Congo

12138. Europe’s Quest for Digital Sovereignty: GAIA-X as a Case Study

Author:: Simona Autolitano and Agnieszka Pawlowska
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: There is currently much discussion about “digital sovereignty” in Europe. While the term encompasses very diverse connotations, it refers to a broad concept involving data, technological, regulatory and political elements. Cloud computing represents one example of the concrete materialisation of the European Union’s quest for “digital sovereignty” – especially through the development of its GAIA-X project. It is too early to assess whether or not GAIA-X will definitively help the Union to achieve this much-desired goal; however, some challenges have already emerged along the way. Looking to the future, if the EU wants to achieve “digital sovereignty”, a different strategy to the one currently under discussion will be needed.
Topic:: Politics, Science and Technology, Sovereignty, European Union, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, France, and Germany

12139. Financing Infrastructure Investments for Local Communities

Author:: Valeria Branca
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The second Infrastructure Working Group workshop under the Italian G20 PPresidency, titled “Financing infrastructure investments for local communities”, was hosted on 4 February 2021 by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). As the world gradually recovers from the pandemic crisis, most governments are designing strategies to revive long-term growth. A key factor in their success will be the capacity to restart and reorient infrastructure investments. In this context, investments in local infrastructures are particularly important because social needs, work habits and production patterns have been greatly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, whose impact has been most severe on urban areas, the informal sector and marginalised groups – especially in developing countries. Investments in local infrastructures will therefore be crucial in addressing the need to sustain recovery while tackling long-standing problems posed by climate change and social exclusion.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Sustainable Development Goals, Investment, Coronavirus, Sustainability, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12140. Europe’s Missile Defence and Italy: Capabilities and Cooperation

Author:: Alessandro Marrone and Karolina Muti
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Europe’s missile defence is structurally linked to NATO deterrence and defence architecture, and it has to face both a worsened international security environment and an accelerating, worldwide technological innovation. Russia and China are heavily investing in new hypersonic systems which dramatically decrease the time needed to reach the target by flying mostly within the atmosphere. The US remains a global leader in the development and deployment of missile defence capabilities, including the Aegis systems which represent the cornerstone of NATO integrate air and missile defence covering the Old Continent. European countries are increasingly collaborating within the EU framework on the related capability development, primarily via the TWISTER project under the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PeSCo). Being exposed to missile threats from Middle East and North Africa and participating to allied nuclear sharing, Italy has a primary interest in upgrading its military capabilities through PeSCo, maintaining them fully integrated within NATO, and involving the national defence industry in cutting-edge procurement programmes.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Science and Technology, and European Union
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, France, Poland, Germany, Italy, North America, and United States of America

12141. Technological Competition: Can the EU Compete with China?

Author:: Francesca Ghiretti
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The debate on technological development and the unfolding fourth technological revolution tends to neglect the role of the EU, relegating it to follower status. The leadership positions are occupied by the US and China, who compete with one another for technological supremacy. Yet, despite lagging behind in some areas, the EU is better placed than is often assumed and still stands a chance of guaranteeing the delivery of a technological revolution that is not only environmentally but also socially sustainable. This is critical in proposing a model of technological development alternative to that of China, in particular, and especially in such sectors as artificial intelligence, supercomputing and digital skills.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, and European Union
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Europe

12142. Clean Molecules across the Mediterranean: The Potential for North African Hydrogen Imports into Italy and the EU

Author:: Luca Franza
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Hydrogen is the most promising vector for harnessing North Africa’s largely untapped renewable energy potential. Low-carbon hydrogen produced in North Africa can play an important role in enabling the European Union and Italy to reach their increasingly ambitious decarbonisation targets as a complement to electrification and locally produced renewables. It is estimated that the EU could achieve cost savings by producing at least part of its future renewable energy needs in neighbouring high-yield regions. Italy is set to play a particularly important function as both a gateway and a catalyst for North African hydrogen exports. In turn, North Africa stands to benefit from hydrogen both as a source of revenues and as an instrument of diversification, industrialisation and local economic development. This would in turn improve social resilience, increase political stability, reduce the risk of radicalisation and limit migration flows. Italy has a particularly strong strategic interest in all of these areas, given its geographic location in the Central Mediterranean and marked exposure to social, political and security developments in North Africa. North African hydrogen could also create profitable business opportunities for several Italian companies. In sum, hydrogen can contribute to fighting climate change while preserving positive trade interdependence across the Mediterranean. Strong coordination between the private sector and policy-makers is going to be key to abate costs along the hydrogen value chain and launch successful international hydrogen trade schemes.
Topic:: Energy Policy, European Union, Trade, Imports, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:: Europe, North Africa, Italy, and Mediterranean

12143. How Green is China’s Belt and Road Initiative?

Author:: Alice Politi
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been described as the largest infrastructure project in history, affecting around 60 per cent of the global population. Whilst promoting a narrative of connectivity, growth and “win-win partnerships”, the project has received opposing assessments regarding its wider impact, particularly in the environmental domain.
Topic:: Climate Change, Infrastructure, Green Technology, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

12144. The OSCE as Sisyphus: Mediation, Peace Operations, Human Rights

Author:: Philip Remler
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Over the past decade, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has been returning to its origins as a Cold War–era Conference – a forum where states and blocs, often antagonistic to one another and espousing opposing ideals, can air their frictions and hostilities. The OSCE was created without legal personality and with the liberum veto of the consensus principle. These constraints stunted the growth of executive capabilities and bound the OSCE closely to the will of its participating States. That rendered most mediation efforts ineffective, especially where an OSCE state is both belligerent and mediator in the same conflicts. Peace operations have been more effective – notably the Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine – but the same factors have tightly constrained its activity. Though all participating States committed themselves to democratic governance, rule of law and respect for human rights, these ideals failed in much of the former Soviet Union, and autocrats have used the organisation’s lack of legal personality and the consensus principle to hobble the OSCE’s efforts. If the OSCE’s participating States want it to remain an Organization, not a Conference, they must take action to secure its executive autonomy.
Topic:: Human Rights, Peacekeeping, Democracy, Conflict, and OSCE
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

12145. Can Negotiations and Diplomacy Break the US–Iran Impasse?

Author:: Anahita Motazed Rad
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As the Biden and Rouhani administrations’ position to renew diplomatic efforts on the Iranian nuclear file with European support, they face more challenges than their predecessors did in 2015, when the Iranian nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was originally signed. Today, domestic, regional and international confrontations have increased; hardliners and conservatives in Tehran and Washington, on the one hand, and in Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on the other, are now more aligned and coordinated against a diplomatic success than they were in 2015.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Power, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

12146. The Post-COVID-19 Trajectory for Algeria, Morocco and the Western Sahara

Author:: Michaël Tanchum
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As Algeria and Morocco enter 2021, the bilateral relationship stands at a crossroads in which the status quo is no longer tenable. The COVID-19 pandemic and Morocco’s spate of diplomatic successes during 2020, culminating with the US’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara in December, have altered the long-standing, geopolitical dynamics of the Western Maghreb. Algeria now faces the critical decision of whether and how to attempt to offset Morocco’s rising power. The enduring détente between Algeria and Morocco had been characterised by limited coordination against shared threats such as terrorism and a contained competition in the Western Sahara. Since 1991, the Algerian-backed Polisario Front, which seeks to establish an independent Sahrawi state in the Western Sahara, abandoned its armed struggle in favour of working through the framework of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Algeria, Morocco, and Sahara

12147. Countering Zero-Sum Relations in the Middle East: Insights from the Expert Survey

Author:: Flavio Fusco
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Building on emerging debates on the need to develop de-escalation mechanisms for the Middle East, the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) and the Brussels-based Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS), with support from the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, launched a one-year research and outreach project entitled “Fostering a New Security Architecture in the Middle East”. Connected to the research, an expert survey targeting European, US, Russian, Middle Eastern and Chinese experts and practitioners was conducted on key themes, principles and approaches associated with a potential new security architecture for the region. The results of the survey – first published in an edited book volume jointly published by IAI and FEPS in November 2020 – are analysed below, complete with tables and infographics on key themes associated with the research project and the search for new, inclusive mechanisms for dialogue and de-escalation in the Middle East.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, and United States of America

12148. Equal Rights as a Basis for Just Peace: a European Paradigm Shift for Israel/Palestine

Author:: Daniela Huber
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Historically speaking, the European Community and then the European Union have always reacted with paradigm changes in their foreign policies to watershed moments in the Middle East. In response to the two Arab-Israeli wars in 1967 and 1973, the European Community actually set up its own foreign policy in the first place and initiated the Euro-Arab Dialogue. After the Camp David Accords, the nine foreign ministers came out with the Venice Declaration in 1980 which reminded its partners in Washington and Tel Aviv that the Palestine question had been ignored and set the parameters for diplomacy in the 1990s. After the Cold War, however, the European Union became absorbed into the so-called Middle East Peace Process (MEPP), resulting in less independent EU agency on Israel/Palestine. This trend has become particularly obvious over the past four years of the Trump presidency, during which time the EU seemed almost paralyzed. While Europeans are now counting on the incoming Biden administration, during the election campaign Joe Biden stated that he will leave the US embassy in Jerusalem and that he is also favourable of the normalization deals between Israel and certain Arab states which President Trump had pushed for. At the same time, the Biden team seems hesitant to return to negotiations.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Human Rights, Territorial Disputes, European Union, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

12149. Reviewing NATO’s Non-proliferation and Disarmament Policy

Author:: Katarzyna Kubiak
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The global treaty-based nuclear order is running out of steam. The problems facing it are progressively building up, while problem-solving is losing momentum. The search for a “golden key” to address disarmament and non-proliferation in a way fit for the 21st century prompts decision-makers to look for novel approaches. NATO needs to actively shape this newly emerging space. Acting today from within a tight policy and institutional “corset”, the Alliance should strengthen its non-proliferation and disarmament portfolio, and harness its consultative and coordination strengths for agenda-setting, norm-shaping and awareness-raising within the international community.
Topic:: NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and Global Focus

12150. EU–Africa Partnership on Migration and Mobility in Light of COVID-19: Perspectives from North Africa

Author:: Mehdi Lahlou
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic has turned into a global economic crisis with severe social effects in the least developed countries, particularly in Africa. Pre-existing challenges related to widespread poverty, demographic growth, food insecurity and governance issues have been exacerbated by the pandemic. While migration remains one of the key elements of the partnership agenda between Africa and the European Union, the aggravating socioeconomic situation in the African continent due to the impact of COVID-19 and its implications for migration dynamics requires going beyond business-as-usual approaches. The renewed scenario calls for a more comprehensive and development-oriented approach to migration, requiring new policy initiatives addressing the wider set of conditions that, beyond constituting developmental challenges in their own right, also drive migration in North Africa as well as in Sub-Saharan African countries.
Topic:: Economics, Migration, European Union, Mobility, Asylum, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and North Africa

12151. Cyber Defence in NATO Countries: Comparing Models

Author:: Alessandro Marrone and Ester Sabatino
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In 2016 NATO recognised cyber as a domain comparable to the air, land and sea ones, in consideration of the growing number of cyberattacks and of their negative impact on the cyberspace, as well as on the “real world”. Both NATO and its member states have launched initiatives to better tackle the cyber challenge both operationally and in terms of capability development. Nevertheless, among major NATO’s members a common approach to cyber defence is still missing, thus generating a division among countries that pursue a more active defence – US, UK and France – and those that prefer a more defensive approach – Germany and Spain.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, National Security, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Spain, and United States of America

12152. The Biden White House and the Venezuela Crisis: Time for a Policy Change

Author:: Lucía Ramírez Bolívar
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The incoming Biden-Harris administration has been welcomed by great expectations of impending changes in US policy after four years of the Trump presidency. Out of a wide range of issues, US foreign policy towards Latin America and the Caribbean is one domain where a shift in approach may be expected from the new administration.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Oil, Sanctions, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: South America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

12153. Iraq’s Yazidis: Among the World’s Most Threatened Minorities

Author:: Antonella Caruso
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Pope Francis is scheduled to arrive in Iraq on 5 March 2021 for a historic three-day visit. The Holy Father aims to promote a message of hope and support to thousands of Iraqi Christians who have returned or are yet to return to their homes after the official defeat of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) in December 2017. The first-ever Pontifical visit will also include stops in Mosul and the Christian enclave of Qaraqosh, in northern Iraq, in a province which has been ground zero for so much violence and ethnic and religious cleansing over the past years. All minorities have suffered in Iraq – but none as much as the Yazidis, slaughtered by the thousands by IS militants. While other minorities have slowly returned home, the Yazidi future remains bleaker than ever.
Topic:: Religion, Minorities, and Yazidis
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Vatican city, and Mediterranean

12154. Ten Years of the Syrian Conflict: Time for the EU to Reconsider Its Strategy?

Author:: Amer Al-Hussein
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The Syrian conflict entered its eleventh year on 15 March 2021, bringing this “living nightmare” back to our minds.[1] This ominous anniversary should remind the world of the importance of addressing the bleak reality inside Syria. While the new US administration provides a glimmer of hope for a return to diplomacy, multilateralism and an end to the mercantilism of the past years, Europe would be wrong to simply wait for the US lead on Syria.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Sanctions, European Union, Institutions, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, United States of America, and Mediterranean

12155. Beyond May 1: The Future of U.S. Engagement in Afghanistan

Author:: Adam Weinstein
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: October 2021 will mark the 20th anniversary of the U.S. war in Afghanistan. The United States currently finds itself at an inflection point, as it determines whether to withdraw its remaining troops by May 1, as required by a 2020 agreement with the Taliban, or to remain militarily involved in the conflict. The Biden administration should take the following steps to best support a negotiated settlement to end the war, while also bringing U.S. troops home.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, War, Military Affairs, Taliban, Peace, and Troop Deployment
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

12156. The New Southern Policy Plus: What’s New and What’s Next?

Author:: Moe Thuzar
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Building on the New Southern Policy (NSP) implementation experience, and in recognition of the uneven impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on different populations in ASEAN, the ROK may consider the following operational dimensions of implementing the NSP Plus’ strategic thrusts. First, consultation of ASEAN’s collective and individual needs on each of the core strategy areas, leveraging on the ROK’s willingness to share and adapt its successful practices to meet the needs of its ASEAN partners. Second, synchronizing or aligning the NSP Plus’ regional thrusts with the ROK’s bilateral programs in the ASEAN countries, to ensure a seamless continuity of matching regional-level support with in-country requirements. Third, instituting a periodic or mid-term review mechanism for the NSP Plus implementation may help early identification of areas or priorities to adjust or revise, taking into account emerging needs and concerns. Ultimately, the ROK’s NSP niche will be the quality of its impact, in areas where the ROK’s strengths speak most to its “new southern neighbors.”
Topic:: Economy, ASEAN, and Regional Economy
Political Geography:: Asia and Korea

12157. Field-by-Field Changes in China since Covid-19 and Implications for Korea

Author:: Jai Chul Heo
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: China has been able to escape from the Covid-19 outbreak relatively quickly compared to other countries. Nevertheless, it still remains greatly influenced by the Covid-19 pandemic across its politics, economy, society, culture, and other areas, which has led to various changes throughout China. Therefore, this study comprehensively examined the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on various aspects of Chinese politics, economy, society, and culture. And in response to these changes in Chinese society, the study explores new strategies toward China in the post-Covid-19 era.
Topic:: Politics, Culture, Economy, COVID-19, and Society
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Korea

12158. The Effects of Free Trade Agreements on SMEs’ Direct and Indirect Exports

Author:: Kyong Hyun Koo
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: FTAs have been known to have large positive effects on trade creation between member countries. However, it is relatively unexplored how much small/medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) accounted for in the trade creation due to FTAs compared to large-sized enterprises (LEs). We find that Korean FTA policies have significantly increased SMEs’ direct exports to FTA partner countries between 2005 and 2017, although the effects were as much as a half of those for LEs, which indicates a considerable LEs’ premium in the direct export effects of FTAs. We further find that the FTAs also significantly increased the indirect exports of Korean firms, i.e., the domestic input supplies through in-dustrial input-output linkage, and that SMEs have benefited more from the indirect export effects of FTAs than LEs. Considering the direct and indirect export effects together, the LEs’ premium in the total export effects of FTA is found to become smaller.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Free Trade, Exports, Trade, and Industry
Political Geography:: Asia and Korea

12159. The Determinants and Welfare Implications of Labor Share

Author:: Sungbae An, Minsoo Han, Subin Kim, and Jinhee Lee
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The decline in labor share is recognized as a global phenomenon. Concerns have been raised that this trend will exacerbate the income inequality between business owners as capitalists and households as the labor suppliers, prompting a decline in household income and consumption, which are major driving forces for sustainable growth. Meanwhile, various policy measures have been introduced to raise the labor share, with the aim of correcting inequality and boosting growth. This study explores the determinants of labor share and analyzes the effects of these factors on the economy and social welfare, offering various interpretations and policy alternatives according to economic conditions.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Inequality, Economy, Business, and Welfare
Political Geography:: Asia and Korea

12160. South Korea’s New Southern Policy as an Open Regime: A View from Southeast Asia

Author:: Aaron Jed Rabena
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: There are four ways on how the NSP Plus could be further improved. First, to avoid policy limitations and maximize the room for supply chain resiliency and functional cooperation, the coverage of the NSP countries can be expanded apart from ASEAN and India. Second, South Korea can employ the concept of Third-Party Market Cooperation (TPMC) or the pursuit of joint ventures or partnerships with other countries in maximizing capacity-building in third countries (NSP countries). Third, South Korea can help strengthen ASEAN institution-building, regionalism and internal balancing by applying a similar policy framework to the Brunei-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines East ASEAN Growth Area (BIMP-EAGA) just as it does to the Mekong Region. Fourth, there needs to be more reciprocity or two-way interaction in the NSP so as to not make it seem that ASEAN is only on the receiving end of South Korean generosity. Finally, it is important to note that a change in the South Korean administration does not necessarily spell the end of the NSP just as the US’ Pivot or Rebalance to Asia of the Obama Administration was remodeled to the Indo-Pacific under the Trump administration.
Topic:: Markets, Regional Cooperation, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: India, Asia, South Korea, and Southeast Asia

12161. What’s in the New Southern Policy Plus? An ASEAN Perspective on Building Niche-based Pragmatic Cooperation with South Korea

Author:: Chiew-Ping Hoo
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: It is clear that the NSP started off with the right messages and many Southeast Asian countries have been receptive to the initiatives. Despite the pandemic bringing a lot more challenges in implementing the policy initiatives, the NSP Plus has envisioned an innovation-oriented cooperation by transforming the traditional face-to-face operations to electronic and digitalized management. Public health cooperation is understandably the immediate focus, but such cooperation should be also seen as long-term fulfilment of the cooperation on the People pillar in the NSP. Infrastructure connectivity and South Korea’s cooperation in the building of an evolving East Asian regional architecture respectively enhance the Prosperity and Peace pillars. With patience, dedication, and commitment, the NSP Plus will be a long-lasting foreign policy legacy of Moon that brings benefits to Korea, ASEAN, and regional stability.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Political stability, Public Health, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Asia, Korea, and Southeast Asia

12162. Twenty Years of One Country Two Systems in China: Evaluation and Future Prospects

Author:: Jai Chul Heo
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study evaluated China's model of “One Country, Two Systems” (一國兩制) 20 years into operation and the bilateral relationship between Taiwan and Mainland China ‒ focusing on Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan ‒ and examined future prospects. The study is meaningful in that it conducts a more objective evaluation than the previous studies by empirically analyzing data accumulated over the past 20 years of implementation of the One Country Two Systems principle from various perspectives. In addition, it is also a timely study in that it analyzes how the One Country Two Systems arrangement is likely to develop in the future, and what impact this would have, making considerations for changes in China's national strategy during the Xi Jinping period and the competition for hegemony between the U.S. and China. The results of the analysis indicate that over the past 20 years China has been experimenting with the possibility of coexisting different systems in one country, and that the One Country Two Systems arrangement, as a new form of unification which has never been attempted in the history of mankind, has actually shown the possibility of success. However, in recent years, various political contradictions have been exposed in the process of implementing the arrangement, mostly in the Hong Kong society, and the resulting conflict has gradually intensified. While maintaining the current capitalist system for 50 years, Macau is expected to gradually progress in its “Sinicization,” with continuing active economic and social exchanges and cooperation with mainland China. As a result, Macau is expected to be fully incorporated into China's socialist system in 2049, 50 years after the return, but it is likely to remain a city of special character considering Macau's region and its economic structure. On the other hand, the One Country Two Systems arrangement with Hong Kong is expected to undergo a difficult process in the future. In the midst of various conflicts surrounding Hong Kong, the guarantee for Hong Kong’s autonomy is expected to end in 2047 amid efforts on the part of the mainland government to sinicize Hong Kong. And China wants to apply the philosophy of “One Country, Two Systems” to its reunification with Taiwan as well, but in reality this remains very low in possibility.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, Korea, Hong Kong, and Macau

12163. Labor Market Impact of Immigration in the European Union

Author:: Dong-Hee Joe
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Immigration is one of the factors often considered as the causes of Brexit. Researchers find evidences that regions with more immigrants from the new member states of the European Union (EU hereinafter) in eastern Europe tended to vote more in favor of Brexit in the 2016 referendum. Similar relations between the size of immigrant population and anti-immigration attitudes or far-right voting are found in other richer EU member states. A common explanation for this relation is the concern that immigrants negatively affect the outcome in the host labor market. Immigration is drawing attention in Korea too. Although immigrants' share in population is still substantially smaller in Korea than in the EU, its increase is noticeable. Also, certain industries in Korea are known to be already heavily reliant on immigrant labor. Recently, as entry into the country was tightened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, firms and farms are reported to have faced a disruption in production. This trend of increasing presence of immigrants in population and in the labor market, vis-à-vis the low fertility rate and rapid aging in Korea, is raising interest and concern on the socioeconomic impact of immigration. To offer some reference for the debates related to immigration in Korea, KIEP researchers (Joe et al. 2020 and Joe and Moon 2021) look at the EU, where immigrants' presence was much higher from much earlier on, and where the greater heterogeneity among the immigrants allows for richer analyses. This World Economy Brief presents some of their findings that are salient for Korea.
Topic:: Immigration, European Union, Brexit, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Britain, Europe, Asia, and Korea

12164. China’s FDI in Europe and Europe’s Policy Response

Author:: Pyoung Seob Yang, Cheol-Won Lee, Suyeob Na, Taehyn Oh, Young Sun Kim, Hyung Jun Yoon, and Yoo-Duk Ga
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: China’s investment in the European Union (EU) increased significantly during the European financial crisis, but has been on the decline in recent years. The surge of Chinese investment has raised concerns and demands for analysis on the negative effects it could have on the EU companies and industries. In this context, the present study aims to analyze the main characteristics of Chinese investment and M&A in Europe, major policy issues between the two sides, the EU’s policy responses, and prospects of Chinese future investment in Eu-rope, going on to draw important lessons for Korea. To summarize the main characteristics of China's investment in Europe, the study found that the EU's share of China's overseas direct investment has continued to increase until recently. Second, investment in the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) is gradually increasing, although it is still insignificant compared to the top five destinations in the EU: Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Luxembourg and France. Third, China's investment in the EU is being made in pursuit of innovation in manufacturing and to acquire high-tech technologies. When it comes to China's M&A in Europe, the study found that the proportion of indirect China's M&As (via third countries (e.g. Hong Kong) or Chinese subsidiaries already established in Europe) was relatively higher than direct ones. Empirical factor analysis of investment also shows that China's investment in the EU is strongly motivated by the pursuit of strategic assets. Other factors such as institutional-level and regulatory variables are found to have no significant impact, or have an effect contrary to expectations. This suggests that China's investment in the EU is based on the Chinese government's growth strategy, and accompanies an element of national capitalism Today, It is highly expected that the COVID-19 pandemic will have a reorganizing effect on the global value chain (GVC) and Foreign investment regulation in the high-tech sector motivated by national security is emerging as a global issue as the US and the EU are tightening their control. As Korean companies are not free from the risk of falling under such regulations, a thorough and careful response is required. And for the Korean government, it is necessary to prepare legal and institutional measures regulating foreign investment in reference to the US and the EU.
Topic:: Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Crisis, European Union, Economy, Economic Growth, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, Korea, and United States of America

12165. Changing Environment for Opening of Chinese Financial Sector and Implications

Author:: Sangbaek Hyun, Suyeob Na, Young Sun Kim, Koun Cho, and Bongkyo Seo
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The opening of China's financial sector has progressed at a very slow pace, unlike the manufacturing and trade sectors that have pushed for an active opening to the outside world. The Chinese economy has been growing rapidly while serving as a global production base, but since 2012, it has become necessary to modify its approaches to achieve growth as it enters an era of medium-speed growth. Recently, new reform and opening measures have been taken in various fields to improve the quality of the Chinese economy, and the need for reform and opening in the financial sector has also increased. Internally, the financial system centered on China's state-owned commercial banks has focused on indirect financing, which has served as a major obstacle to upgrading China's economy and industry to the next level, further increasing the need for reform and opening of the financial sector. Moreover, externally, the U.S.-China conflict which began in earnest in 2018, is applying strong pressure toward reform and opening in China’s financial sector. The Chinese government began to show a proactive attitude toward financial opening amid such internal needs and external pressure, and an important development was seen in China’s financial opening when President Xi Jinping declared further opening measures at the Boao Forum in April 2018. The Chinese financial authorities have prepared follow-up measures related to financial opening, and the Chinese government’s efforts toward financial opening in the three years from 2018 to 2020 yielded more results than the ten-year opening period since its accession to the WTO. Against this backdrop, this study examines the main contents of China’s financial opening process, which has been accelerating recently, and derives evaluation and implications.
Topic:: Finance, Economy, Economic Growth, and Banks
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Korea

12166. A Comprehensive Evaluation on Korea’s ODA to Rwanda’s Agriculture Sector and Its implications for Strategic Approaches

Author:: Young Ho Park, Minji Jeong, and Soo Hyun Moon
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: There has been a growing consensus in the national and international aid architecture that sporadic or scattered aid modality should be avoided. This study conducted a comprehensive cluster evaluation on Korea’s agricultural ODA to Rwanda between 2013 and 2017, with two newly devised indexes: Cluster Performance Index (CPI) and Resource Allocation Index (RAI). Every Korean agricultural ODA project was categorized into five clusters and numerically evaluated against criteria widely used in the evaluation of development projects: relevance, efficiency, effectiveness and sustainability. Our cluster evaluation reveals that projects are mostly planned appropriately, but in some clusters, large amounts of the budget have been invested in poorly planned projects. Regarding efficiency, there was considerable room for improvement in all clusters. Particularly, in the Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) category, all clusters scored below average. Concerning performance evaluation, all clusters scored relatively high in effectiveness, specifically in goal achievement. Lastly, in terms of sustainability, risk management was found to be relatively inadequate in all clusters. Based on the lessons from the aforementioned observations and analysis results, this study suggests ODA quality can be improved by optimizing budget allocation, improving monitoring efficiency, creating synergistic effects through cluster linkage, and developing agricultural value chain program.
Topic:: Agriculture, Foreign Aid, Economy, and Value Chains
Political Geography:: Africa, Asia, Korea, and Rwanda

12167. Fourth Industrial Revolution in Japan: Technology to Address Social Challenges

Author:: Gyupan Kim, Hyongkun Lee, Boram Lee, Jongeun Lee, and Wonju Son
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In Japan, the challenges posed by its low birthrate and aging population expanded rapidly with the collapse of the bubble economy in the early 1990s, and in March 2011, energy and environmental problems such as power supply shortages and nuclear radiation issues occurred in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima nuclear accident. Also, with the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in January 2020, digital transformation has emerged as a social challenge. In particular, Japan's aging population combined with a decrease in the working age population, has caused the government to face fiscal crisis due to the burden of social insurance, and a sense of crisis of labor shortage in the medical, manufacturing and logistics sectors. This is also leading to a sense of crisis at local governments as well, seen with the collapse of the medical service supply system under “Tokyo centralization,” the rapid increase of the vulnerable in transportation due to the super-aging of rural areas, and the risk of extinction of local communities. The analysis on the healthcare and medical care sectors was conducted in chapter 2, and the manufacturing, mobility, and logistics sectors in Chapter 3, and the local revitalization in Chapter 4 respectively. And chapter 5 of conclusion remarks presents policy implications for the Korean government.
Topic:: Demographics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Nuclear Power, and Economy
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

12168. Economic Policies of GCC Countries in the Era of Low Oil Prices and Their Policy Implications for Korea

Author:: Kwon Hyung Lee, Sung Hyun Son, Yun Hee Jang, and Kwang Ho Ryou
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Over the past several decades, the six member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have implemented economic policies for industrial diversification to lessen severe dependence on the oil industry. Such policy efforts have been driven by their awareness of macro-economic and structural risks from heavy volatilities in international oil markets in terms of fiscal and trade sectors. For instance, the drop in international oil prices reduces export performance in the oil and natural gas sectors, which in turn results in a decline in the stability of fiscal revenue. The recent trends of low oil prices since 2014, as well as high unemployment rates, have strengthened the policy regime for industrial diversification and job creation supported by mid- to long-term economic plans of the GCC countries. This report reviews what has been emphasized in the areas of industrial, employment, trade and investment policies. We then derive implications for Korean companies and policymakers for sustainable cooperation between Korea and the Middle East.
Topic:: Oil, Economy, Diversification, and Trade
Political Geography:: Asia, Korea, and Gulf Nations

12169. The Effects of US-China Rivalry on Latin America and Their Implications

Author:: Sungwoo Hong, Yeo Joon Yoon, Jino Kim, Jeewoon Rim, and Jimin Nam
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The conflict between the United States and China may be the issue of most importance as well as interest to the world, prior to COVID-19. This conflict between the two countries is appearing not only in the economic sector, but also in various field such as politics, diplomacy, and military affairs. Such competition between the two countries is likely to escalate further as multilateral systems such as the WTO are threatened and protectionism intensifies in the post-COVID-19 world. Even within Latin America, the competition between the two countries frequently appears in a variety of forms. Conflicts between the United States and China in Latin America tend to occur mainly in the infrastructure sectors. Furthermore, the United States pressured Latin American countries to choose between the United States and China, with the results of this pressure depending on the political orientation of the ruling government. In order to investigate the impact of retaliatory tariffs between the two countries on Latin American countries’ exports and welfare, we employ an event analysis for exports and computational general equilibrium (CGE) model for welfare, with Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Chile as the subject of our analysis. Based on the outcome of the event study, Brazil’s exports to the United States moderately increased due to the tariff imposition, and such an effect persisted for short term. Its exports to China rose considerably immediately after the tariff imposition, and then the impact tended to decrease over time. By contrast, it is difficult to conclude that the tariff imposition had a statistically significant and lasting effect on the exports of the remaining three countries to the United States and China. As a result of the analysis using the CGE model, meanwhile, the tariffs imposed between the United States and China trivially increased the welfare of Latin American countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economy, Tariffs, Exports, Trade, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South America, Latin America, Korea, and United States of America

12170. Obscure but Powerful: Shaping U.S. Immigration Policy through Attorney General Referral and Review

Author:: Sarah Pierce
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Over the course of four years, the Trump administration used a wide range of executive action tools to make sweeping changes to the U.S. immigration system. Among them is an obscure but powerful bureaucratic authority known as the attorney general’s “referral and review” power. By allowing the attorney general to review and overrule decisions made by the Board of Immigration Appeals (the immigration appellate body within the U.S. Department of Justice), referral and review makes it possible to alter or reinterpret the application of immigration laws—at times with wide-reaching effects. While the frequent and consequential use of this power by Trump-era attorneys general drew increased attention to it, many of the concerns that have been raised about it predate the Trump administration. Among them: that it allows the attorney general—the country’s chief law enforcement officer—to intercede in individual cases, raising questions about the independence of the immigration adjudication system; that referral and review decisions are made with minimal procedural safeguards or transparency; and that the power has remained in the Justice Department, even as most immigration functions were moved to the Department of Homeland Security when that agency was created nearly two decades ago. This report explores how referral and review has evolved over time, including under the Trump administration, whose attorneys general referred more cases to themselves for review than those in any prior administration, Republican or Democrat. The report also looks closely at the two areas of U.S. immigration policy most affected by Trump-era referral and review decisions: the U.S. asylum system and court procedures, including how immigration judges manage their own dockets. Finally, it looks ahead to how the power might be used in the future and recommends ways to improve its use and placement within the immigration bureaucracy.
Topic:: Immigration, Law, Border Control, and Asylum
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

12171. Veteran Disability Compensation and the Army Profession: Good Intentions Gone Awry

Author:: Leonard Wong and Dr. Stephen J. Gerras
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Previous studies analyzing disability compensation have decried its $76 billion annual budget or warned of its perverse ability to incentivize veterans not to work. This study focuses on the impact of this moral hazard on the US Army profession. If soldiers continue to capitalize on an extremely permissive disability system, the trust between society and the military may be threatened, and future Army readiness may be jeopardized should disability compensation be added to the marginal cost of a soldier. More importantly, many of today’s soldiers are rationalizing disability compensation as something owed to them—not for a debilitating injury, but for the hardships of service to the nation. This study uses US Army and Department of Veterans Affairs personnel files, soldier interviews, and discussions with senior leaders to support its conclusions. The intent of the study is to prompt the Army profession to act before the culture surrounding disability compensation becomes permanent. In the end, the essence of the entitlement—taking care of veterans—must remain sacrosanct. This call for reform is driven not by fiscal considerations, but by a desire for the Army to remain both an institution trusted by society and a profession marked by selfless service.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Government, Disability, Army, and Veterans
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

12172. Afghanistan Study Group Final Report: A Pathway for Peace in Afghanistan

Author:: Afghanistan Study Group
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In December 2019, Congress established the Afghanistan Study Group and tasked it with identifying policy recommendations that “consider the implications of a peace settlement, or the failure to reach a settlement, on U.S. policy, resources, and commitments in Afghanistan.” The Study Group’s report, released on February 3, 2021, concluded that there is a real opportunity to align U.S. policies, actions, and messaging behind achieving a durable peace settlement to end four decades of violent conflict in Afghanistan. This new approach would protect U.S. national interests in Afghanistan and the region by reducing terrorist threats, promoting regional stability, and protecting important gains in human rights and democratic institutions that have been made in Afghanistan. Active regional diplomacy could help generate a consensus among Afghanistan’s neighbors that all would benefit in both economic and security terms from supporting and sustaining peace in Afghanistan rather than fueling conflict through proxies.
Topic:: Conflict, Negotiation, Peace, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

12173. North Korea in Africa: Historical Solidarity, China’s Role, and Sanctions Evasion

Author:: Benjamin R. Young
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: North Korea serves as a mutually beneficial partner for many African governments. Although these ties are often viewed solely through the lens of economic and security interests, this report shows Pyongyang's deep historical connections and ideological linkages with several of the continent’s nations. North Korea–Africa relations are also bolstered by China, which has been complicit in North Korea’s arms and ivory trade, activities providing funds that likely support the Kim regime’s nuclear ambitions and allow it to withstand international sanctions.
Topic:: History, Governance, Sanctions, Democracy, and Solidarity
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and North Korea

12174. Mobilization, Negotiation, and Transition in Burkina Faso

Author:: Eloïse Bertrand
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In October 2014, a massive popular uprising unseated Burkina Faso’s long-time president, Blaise Compaoré, and drove a civilian-led transition that culminated in free and fair elections in November 2015. This report shows the importance of the national culture of dialogue and consensus and the benefit of a vast, resilient network across negotiating groups. Although violence in the country has since increased, lessons from Burkina Faso’s transition can inform the dynamics of popular mobilization, negotiations, and prospects for long-term peace and democracy in other settings.
Topic:: Democracy, Negotiation, Transition, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:: Africa and Burkina Faso

12175. “No Going Backward”: Afghanistan’s Post–Peace Accord Security Sector

Author:: Annie Pforzheimer, Andrew Hyde, and Jason Criss Howk
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Failure to plan realistically for needed changes in Afghanistan’s security sector following a peace settlement—and failure to start phasing in changes now—will lead to post-settlement instability. This report examines the particular challenges Afghanistan will face, with examples from the climate following peace settlements in other parts of the world offering insight into what may occur and possibilities for response. An Afghan-owned and Afghan-led strategy that incorporates some of this report’s recommendations can help create a lasting foundation for Afghan and regional stability.
Topic:: Security, Political stability, Rule of Law, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

12176. Extending Constitutional Rights to Pakistan’s Tribal Areas

Author:: Umar Mahmood Khan, Rana Hamza Ijaz, and Sevim Saadat
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: When Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas were officially merged into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province in May 2018, the five million residents of the former tribal areas acquired the same constitutional rights and protections—including access to a formal judicial system—as Pakistan’s other citizens. This report, based on field research carried out by the authors, explores the status of the formal justice system’s expansion, finding both positive trends and severe administrative and capacity challenges, and offers recommendations to address these issues.
Topic:: Security, Rule of Law, Justice, and Tribes
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

12177. Conflict and Crisis in South Sudan’s Equatoria

Author:: Alan Boswell
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: South Sudan’s civil war expanded into Equatoria, the country’s southernmost region, in 2016, forcing hundreds of thousands to flee into neighboring Uganda in what has been called Africa’s largest refugee exodus since the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Equatoria is now the last major hot spot in the civil war. If lasting peace is to come to South Sudan, writes Alan Boswell, it will require a peace effort that more fully reckons with the long-held grievances of Equatorians.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

12178. Enhancing U.S.-China Strategic Stability in an Era of Strategic Competition

Author:: Patricia M. Kim
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: As strategic competition between the United States and China intensifies, preventing a destabilizing arms race and lowering the risk of military, especially nuclear, confrontation is critical. The essays in this volume—based on a series of workshops convened by USIP’s Asia Center in late 2020—highlight both the striking differences and the commonalities between U.S. and Chinese assessments of the root causes of instability and the drivers of conflict in the nuclear, conventional missile and missile defense, space, cyberspace, and artificial intelligence realms.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Peace, Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

12179. Raising the Alarm: Climate Activism in North Africa

Author:: Moussa Sall, Intissar Fakir, Hajar Khamlichi, Thowaba Ben Slema, and Houssem Hamdi
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Across the MENA region, civil society plays a key role in putting climate on the agenda for governments and the private sector. How are activists and advocates in North Africa building momentum in their communities and globally to address climate change? How can social media, film, and art bridge gaps and create a global demand for greater sustainability? Intissar Fakir will be joined in conversation with leading figures in the fight for climate action in North Africa.
Topic:: Civil Society, Climate Change, Arts, Social Media, Film, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

12180. Narrating Memories of the Homeland Paris Based Syrian Artists Reflect on the War

Author:: Vanessa Badre, Lyne Sneige, Kate Seelye, Denis Quenelle, Nagham Hodaifa, and Bady Dalloul
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute's Arts and Culture Center and The Cultural Services of the French Embassy are pleased to host a conversation with leading Syrian contemporary artists, Bady Dalloul and Nagham Hodaifa. The Paris-based artists will reflect on the past decade of conflict and trauma, its impact and influence on their work and their relationship to their homeland. They will be joined by Lyne Sneige, the Director of the Arts & Culture Center at the Middle East Institute. Dalloul grew up in France, the son of prominent Syrian artists. His work confronts the notion of what is real and imagined while challenging the process of writing history. Hodaifa, who left Syria in 2005 to pursue her studies, explores the human condition through the representation of the body. Both artists are in the current MEI Art Gallery exhibit In This Moonless Black Night: Syrian Art After the Uprising, featuring leading contemporary Syrian artists chronicling the hope, trauma, and pain of the past decade through their practice. The artists will be in conversation with Vanessa Badré, art historian, lawyer, and faculty fellow at American University.
Topic:: Arts, Culture, Conflict, Trauma, Syrian War, and Memory
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, France, and Syria

12181. Against All Odds: An Ambitious Climate Policy for Lebanon

Author:: Silvia Crescimbeni, Abi-Nassif, Vahakn Kabakian, and Jessica Obeid
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Amid converging political, economic, and humanitarian crises, Lebanon has recently doubled down on its climate ambition for the next ten years. In its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the country has revised both its GHG emission reduction targets and renewable-energy-sourced power generation targets upwards. Does climate change bear national security implications for Lebanon today? How can climate-proofed infrastructure projects and low-carbon technologies attract investments, create jobs and support Lebanon’s economic revival post-collapse? How will immediate policy choices and renewable energy integration ensure economic growth and shape the future of critical sectors such as energy, water, food, and transportation? What is the role of climate diplomacy and partnerships in achieving Lebanon's climate ambitions? How can Lebanon ensure that its climate policy does not fall through the cracks?
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, National Security, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

12182. Russian Aggression in the Black Sea: Regional and International Responses

Author:: Gonul Tol, Philip Breedlove, Iulia Joja, Yoruk Isik, and Mamuka Tsereteli
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Russia’s largest military buildup since the 2014 annexation of Crimea is taking place along the Ukrainian border and in the Black Sea. Moscow has resorted to escalatory measures, announcing the closing of the Kerch Strait and the Azov Sea to foreign ships and cutting off Ukraine’s ability to export. In response, the West has reacted with warnings and invitations to dialogue while Turkey is trying to walk a fine line between Russia and Ukraine. To prevent further escalation of the crisis, much will depend on the Biden administration’s response. What are possible conflict scenarios of Russia towards Ukraine and the Black Sea? What options does the West have in deterring Russian aggression in the region? In what ways is this significant to the long-term US regional strategy? How is Russian military buildup significant not only for Ukraine, but also for the broader stability of the Black Sea region?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Military Affairs, and Navy
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, and Black Sea

12183. An Uncertain Future: Prospects for ISIS Detainees in Syria and Iraq

Author:: Charles Lister, Vera Mironova, Eric Oehlerich, Mick Mulroy, and Sara Kayyali
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Two years after the territorial defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, tens of thousands of fighters and associated civilians remain in various forms of detention, with little sign of any meaningful solution to their status. Until now, few Western governments have proven willing to repatriate their citizens, choosing instead to leave them in the region, where security is weak and humanitarian conditions are dire. Multilateral efforts to determine the prospects for localized judicial mechanisms have failed, leaving behind an unsustainable crisis that threatens long-term security. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a panel of experts in this timely and important discussion.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Prisons/Penal Systems, Citizenship, Islamic State, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

12184. Ten Years After: Syrian Artists Reflect on the Anniversary of the Syrian Uprising

Author:: Lyne Sneige, Lara Haddad, Maymanah Farhat, and Kevork Mourad
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Marking the launch of the MEI Art Gallery exhibit, In This Moonless Black Night: Syrian Art After the Uprising, MEI is pleased to host a conversation exploring how Syrian artists in exile have addressed the hope, trauma and displacement of the past decade through their art. Among the 14 participating artists, US-based artists Lara Haddad, Essma Imady and Kevork Mourad, as well as curator and writer Maymanah Farhat, will reflect on their artistic practice and the personal experiences that influenced their work over the past 10 years. They'll also examine how the exhibit's diverse imagery and media helps shape our understanding of the magnitude and complexity of the past decade with beauty, grace and humanity. Lyne Sneige, director of MEI's Arts and Culture Center, will moderate the discussion followed by Q&A .
Topic:: Arts, Culture, Media, Syrian War, and Memory
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

12185. Lebanon’s Financial Meltdown and the Prospects for Recovery

Author:: Christophe Abi-Nassif, Haneen Sayed, Alain Bifani, and Nasser Saidi
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Lebanon’s financial and socio-economic crises have been unfolding for nearly 18 months. The Lebanese pound is hitting all-time lows against the US dollar. Food prices have soared more than 400% in just one year. In the meantime, foreign currency reserves at the central bank are dangerously depleting. Citizens have lost access to their life savings and more than half now live below the poverty line. The country’s entire financial system is in dire need of restructuring. Amid the worsening financial collapse and growing civil anger, unrest and poverty, an end to the meltdown is yet to be seen. Where does Lebanon stand today, a year after the first sovereign debt default in its history? How did we even get here? What are immediate monetary and fiscal policy priorities to course-correct? What social policies and programs are needed in the immediate term? What can still be saved? Four Lebanese experts with frontline experience will tackle these issues and shed more light on Lebanon’s uncertain financial, economic, and social future as part of the Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Lebanon program’s events series.
Topic:: Debt, Finance, Economy, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

12186. A Strategic Proxy Threat: Iran’s Transnational Network

Author:: Michael Knights, Hanin Ghaddar, Nadwa Al-Dawsari, and Charles Lister
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Iran’s influence throughout the Middle East has grown dramatically in the past decade, in large part due to its expanding regional network of militias and their assertion of influence in unstable environments. Through the IRGC’s Quds Force and Iranian allies such as Lebanese Hezbollah, the Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen, Iran’s pursuit of regional hegemony through the removal of Western influence threatens stability. What are the main challenges and threats posed by Iran’s regional network? How best should they be dealt with? Can diplomacy remove the incentive for Iranian proxy aggression? How must the United States and the wider international community respond to Iran’s direct and proxy involvement in conflicts across the Middle East?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Transnational Actors, and Proxy War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, and Lebanon

12187. Ten Years After the Arab Spring: Middle East Writers Reflect on the Arab Uprisings

Author:: Jacki Lyden, Yasmine El Rashid, and Kate Seelye
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute's Arts and Culture Center and the Alan Cheuse International Writers Center at George Mason University are pleased to host the second talk in a writers' series marking the 10th anniversary of the Arab uprisings. Launched this past December, Ten Years After The Arab Spring, features the voices of award-winning writers reflecting on the past decade through the lens of their writings and personal experiences. The second book talk in our series features award-winning Egyptian writer Yasmine El Rashidi discussing her debut novel, Chronicle of a Last Summer. Through a young Egyptian woman’s recount of her personal and political coming of age, El Rashidi traces the fine line between survival and complicity, exploring the conscience of a generation raised in fear and silence. Yasmine El Rashidi is in conversation with American author and award-winning journalist Jacki Lyden.
Topic:: History, Arab Spring, Protests, Memory, and Revolution
Political Geography:: Middle East

12188. Oil in the Age of Biden: U.S.-Middle East Energy Relationships Under a New Administration

Author:: Ruba Husari, Samantha Gross, Gerald Feierstein, and Jean-Francois Seznec
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: One of President Biden's most ambitious campaign promises is centered around American energy policy. Biden has vowed to shift away from a traditional focus in oil toward investments in renewable energy sources. Meanwhile, the oil industry in the Middle East is already facing severe repercussions from the coronavirus pandemic. States like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon are struggling to replace oil revenue, cutting social benefits and worsening social unrest in the process. Oil has been the economic backbone on which the U.S. and nations in the Middle East have built diplomatic relationships and maintained mutual security interests. How will these crucial bonds be affected by a greener Biden presidency?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Oil, Pandemic, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

12189. Countering Terrorism since 9/11: International Perspectives

Author:: Edmund Fitton-Brown, Ken Dilanian, Nadwa Al-Dawsari, Jane Marriott, and Aimen Dean
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 were a dramatic wake up call to the United States and the wider world as to the threats posed by violent jihad. However, more than 20 years later, the challenges remain and efforts to combat the likes of al-Qaeda and ISIS have led to even greater levels of conflict and terrorism itself. With a view to hindsight and an eye focused forwards, this panel will seek to assess the lessons learned from the war on terror since 2001 from a range of international perspectives and to present alternative approaches to dealing with the challenges that prevail today.
Topic:: Terrorism, History, Counter-terrorism, and 9/11
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

12190. Egypt, The US, And An Evolving Regional Landscape

Author:: Motaz Zahran, Joey Hood, Paul Salem, Gerald Feierstein, and Mirette F. Mabrouk
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East has become a kaleidoscope of evolving relationships and developments. Following almost a decade of near chaos, Libya has just elected an interim government, paving the way for a new transition. Despite several new normalization treaties with Arab states, Israel remains deadlocked in perhaps the most urgent of its relationships with Arab states; that with Palestine. A decade of stressful and largely fruitless negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is threatening to become even more complicated by Ethiopia’s internal conflicts and the possibility of a civil war spilling over its borders, threatening a fragile transition in Sudan and possibility of stability in the Horn of Africa. Amid all these developments, relationships and alliances are being reformed and reevaluated. Where does Egypt stand on all of these issues? MEI held a private, on the record roundtable discussion with the Ambassador of Egypt to the United States Motaz Zahran and Acting Assistant Secretary of State Joey Hood. MEI President Paul Salem gave an introduction and Senior Vice President Amb Gerald Feierstein and Egypt Programme Director Mirette F Mabrouk moderated the discussion.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, Regional Cooperation, and Transition
Political Geography:: Libya, North Africa, North America, Egypt, and United States of America

12191. The Growing Threat Facing Israel from Iraq

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Iraq is already part of the northern crescent of threats facing Israel. The US presence, broader policy regarding Iran makes Israeli action in Iraq more complicated than in Syria.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Israel

12192. Egyptian Mediation between Israel and Hamas Can Be Useful

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: For the first time in 13 years, an Israeli foreign minister (Gabi Ashkenazi, a former Chief of Staff of the IDF) has visited Egypt for talks with his Egyptian counterpart (Sameh Shukri). At the same time, the head of Egyptian Intelligence, Abbas Kamel, landed in Israel to discuss the situation regarding Gaza with Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gantz. Both visits are parts of a bid by President ‘Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi to take the lead in stabilizing the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel and managing the next steps in the broader Israeli-Palestinian context. Egypt has already benefitted from this. The initiative broke the ice between Sisi and the Biden Administration. Israel, stands to gain, as well. Unlike their predecessors, Sisi and Shukri have welcomed the Abraham Accords. Israel and Egypt have common interests in the eastern Mediterranean. And the Egyptians, for their own reasons, do not trust Hamas. Still, Israel is entitled to insist that as mediators, the Egyptians should keep Jerusalem off the table. It would be dangerous for many in the region were Hamas to gain a strategic foothold there. Israel also should insist on a swift release of its citizens held by Hamas and the return of the bodies of dead soldiers held since 2014. Additionally, it would be useful for the Egyptian government to curb the coarse anti-Israeli and often antisemitic discourse in its state-owned media and the Egyptian public domain, which acts to constrain Cairo’s options.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

12193. Who Won the 2021 Gaza War?

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Since war is about inflicting pain and sustaining pain, Israel clearly can be declared the winner of the recent confrontation.
Topic:: Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

12194. Jewish-Arab Relations in Israel: Between Conflict and Containment

Author:: David Koren
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The violent clashes of this month attest to the depth of national conflict between Arab and Jewish citizens of Israel. Alongside a police response to the challenge, a complementary civil response is required, including dialogue with pragmatic Arab leadership towards coexistence
Topic:: Civil Society, Religion, Conflict, and Containment
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

12195. Iran and Hamas’s Jerusalem/Gaza offensive against Israel

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: As ever, Iran prefers to avoid direct involvement. But without its backing, support and expertise, the latest Hamas offensive against Israel would have been inconceivable.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

12196. The ICC’s folly also hurts the Palestinians

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: If the International Criminal Court of Justice conducted a fair investigation into the ongoing conflict, it would see that Hamas terrorists are committing double war crimes daily.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Terrorism, Conflict, and International Criminal Court (ICC)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

12197. The Biden Foreign Policy Team

Author:: Bob Silverman
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: A guide to the Biden Administration’s first moves and initial set of senior officials. It is no wonder that popular disenchantment with US elites sometimes bubbles to the surface in unexpected ways.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

12198. “The Pot and the Lid” in Eastern Jerusalem

Author:: David Koren
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The key to bringing calm to Jerusalem lies in wise management of the city during in times of calm, as well as handling moments of crisis with a firm hand.
Topic:: Civil Society, Governance, Leadership, and Urban
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Jerusalem

12199. A Deterring Blow is Needed

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: IDF strikes on Gaza’s terrorists should be intense and aimed at causing severe damage to the intermediate level of command, infrastructure and weapons.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

12200. A boiling cauldron

Author:: David Koren
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: There always are tensions bubbling below the surface in Jerusalem. Unfortunately, there are political actors who purposefully stir the pot and instigate violence for religious and political reasons.
Topic:: Religion, Conflict, Diversity, Urban, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Jerusalem

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS