Publication Year: within 25 Years and within 1 Year / Journal:

2401. Vietnam: Briefing sheet

Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Summary, Outlook, and Briefing sheet
Political Geography:: Viet Nam

2402. Kuwait: Political and institutional effectiveness

Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Background, Forecast, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:: Kuwait

2403. Kuwait: Political forces at a glance

Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Summary, Background, and Political forces at a glance
Political Geography:: Kuwait

2404. Sri Lanka: Political and institutional effectiveness

Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Background, Forecast, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:: Sri Lanka

2405. Sri Lanka: Political forces at a glance

Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Summary, Background, and Political forces at a glance
Political Geography:: Sri Lanka

2406. Sweden: Political and institutional effectiveness

Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Background, Forecast, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:: Sweden

2407. Sweden: Political forces at a glance

Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Summary, Background, and Political forces at a glance
Political Geography:: Sweden

2408. Ecuador: Political and institutional effectiveness

Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Background, Forecast, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:: Ecuador

2409. Ecuador: Political forces at a glance

Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Summary, Background, and Political forces at a glance
Political Geography:: Ecuador

2410. Mexico Peace Index 2023

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the tenth edition of the Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP). It provides a comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico, including trends, analysis and estimates of the economic impact of violence in the country. The MPI is based on the Global Peace Index, the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness, produced by IEP every year since 2007. The MPI consists of 12 sub-indicators aggregated into five broader indicators. Mexico’s peacefulness improved by 0.9 percent in 2022. This was the third straight year of improvement following four consecutive years of deteriorations. Seventeen states improved, while 15 deteriorated.
Topic:: Security, Economy, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

2411. Global Peace Index 2023

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the 17th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive datadriven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 163 countries comprising 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. In addition to discussing the findings from the 2023 GPI, the report includes analysis of current conflicts and potential future conflicts, including an analysis of the likely economic impact of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan on the global economy. This year’s results found that the average level of global peacefulness deteriorated by 0.42 per cent. This is the thirteenth deterioration in peacefulness in the last fifteen years, with 84 countries improving and 79 deteriorating in peacefulness in 2022.
Topic:: Economics, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2412. Global Terrorism Index 2023

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from TerrorismTracker and other sources. TerrorismTracker provides event records on terrorist attacks since 1 January 2007. The dataset contains almost 66,000 terrorist incidents for the period 2007 to 2022. In 2022, deaths from terrorism fell by nine per cent to 6,701 deaths and is now 38 per cent lower than at its peak in 2015. The fall in deaths was mirrored by a reduction in the number of incidents, with attacks declining by almost 28 per cent from 5,463 in 2021 to 3,955 in 2022. However, if Afghanistan was removed from the index, terrorism deaths would have increased by four per cent. Afghanistan remained the country most impacted by terrorism for the fourth consecutive year, despite attacks and deaths falling by 75 per cent and 58 per cent respectively. The GTI does not include acts of state repression and violence by state actors and, as such, acts committed by the Taliban are no longer included in the scope of the report since they took control of the government.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Finance, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Global Focus

2413. Safety Perceptions Index 2023 Foundation: Understanding the impact of risk around the world

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The Lloyd’s Register Foundation Safety Perceptions Index (SPI) provides a comprehensive assessment of worries and experiences of risk across 121 countries. The SPI is a unique body of work, providing a deeper understanding of citizens’ feelings of safety than any other publicly available source. The index is produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) on the basis of data from the World Risk Poll, a global survey designed by the Lloyd’s Register Foundation and administered by Gallup. This is the second edition of the SPI. The report analyses two iterations of the World Risk Poll, the first conducted in 2019 and the second conducted in 2021; providing commentary, trends, and insights into these two sets of data. One of the defining features of the research is that one survey was administered prior to the onset of COVID-19 and the other was administered afterwards, allowing for an analysis of the effects of the pandemic on perceptions of risk. This report will be useful in the decades ahead as it will give insight into likely shifts in perceptions of risk for any future pandemics that may occur. The SPI measures two themes, worry about harm and recent experience of serious harm, analysing them across five domains: food and water, violent crime, severe weather, mental health, and workplace safety. These themes and domains are combined into a composite score which reflects perceptions of safety by country and region.The past several years have been characterised by rising feelings of uncertainty worldwide. Central to this shift has been the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted the functioning of social institutions as well as patterns of individual and collective behaviour in countless ways.1 Multiple studies have shown that the pandemic brought about increased levels of fear and anxiety across groups.2 Against this backdrop, there are two central findings of the 2023 SPI report. The first is that there were two parallel developments in people’s perceptions of safety over the last several years. On the one hand, the index showed no meaningful change in levels of worry and experience of harm in the aggregate, with an improvement of less than 0.1 percentage points recorded between 2019 and 2021. On the other hand, complementary data from the World Risk Poll points to a notable rise in generalised and non-specific feelings of fear and lack of safety throughout the world, with people becoming more fearful overall but less certain about the sources of potential threats.
Topic:: Economics, Infrastructure, Risk, Peace, Threat Perception, and Public Safety
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2414. Tracking workers across generations – a cohort-based analysis

Author:: Rosa Abraham
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: Alongside rapid economic growth, India also saw steady de-agrarianisation of its economy in terms of contribution to GDP. In terms of employment, however, the movement out of agriculture was slower, and when they did exit, it was often a withdrawal from the workforce entirely. In general, more of the workforce are in salaried employment, however, these have filtered differently by gender, caste and religion. While cross-sectional data gives us a sense of how these structural changes affect workers at any given point in time, it cannot tell us how these play out for workers over their lifetime as well as how different generations or cohorts of workers have been affected. Here, we use seven rounds of nationally representative official data to construct cohorts who are tracked over these periods to observe employment participation and the patterns over time. We find that younger generations of women systematically less likely to be in paid employment whereas for men, after a certain age, generations look similar in terms of employment rate. Similarly, when examined from the perspective of cohorts, we find that access to salaried employment has changed by gender and caste, and increase in earnings over time over their lifecycle has slowed for certain groups.
Topic:: Women, Employment, Economic Growth, and Economic Mobility
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

2415. Association between Caste and Class in India: Evolution of Caste-Class Dynamics during Economic Growth

Author:: Vaishali Kohli
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: Caste and class are two major markers of social and economic stratification in India. They play a crucial role in sustaining and strengthening the process of social exclusion. It has been often expected that the process of economic growth and modernization may weaken the congruence between caste and class structures and induce social and economic mobility, thereby bringing about a change in the socio-economic environment. In this paper, we focus on the celebrated period of high economic growth in India during the previous decade to study the evolution of caste-class dynamics, to analyze the pattern of association between caste and class positions, and to examine whether this association/congruence has weakened during this period. The analysis is based on four rounds of employment-unemployment surveys of the National Sample Survey Organization covering the period 1999-2012. We construct a matrix of caste and class positions of repeated cross-sections of individuals that shows whether different caste groups are over- or under-represented in different class positions and how these representations have changed over time. We then use a multinomial logistic regression framework to capture the role of caste in explaining the conditional probability of an individual to belong to a particular class position, after controlling for other critical explanatory variables. We further examine how the explanatory role of caste has changed over time. Additionally, we explore the role of education, a crucial channel for socioeconomic mobility, in explaining the class positions of individuals belonging to different caste groups over time. Finally, we examine the impact of high economic growth in determining the class position of an individual in general, as well as for different caste groups over time. The analysis shows that caste has continued to remain an important factor in explaining class locations of individuals during the period of high economic growth. Further, the caste-class associations have continued to persist across different categories of education over time. While there has been a partial weakening of certain associations during the period, particularly for the Other Backward Castes and in some parts of the rural sector, the overall picture is more of continuity than change, with further strengthening and reinforcement of caste-class congruence along several axes. This calls into question the 2 expectations about social mobility with economic growth as well as the nature of economic growth in India.
Topic:: Development, Economic Growth, Class, Caste, Social Exclusion, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

2416. What did they say? Respondent identity, question framing and the measurement of employment

Author:: Rosa Abraham, Nishat Anjum, Rahul Lahoti, and Hema Swaminathan
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: In developing countries, a precise approach to measuring women’s employment remains elusive. Emerging evidence underscores the pivotal role of survey methodology, encompassing respondent selection and question framing, in shaping the assessment of women’s employment. Drawing from two labor market experiments in rural India, this study offers insights on the influence of survey design on the measurement of women’s employment. The first experiment contrasts self-reported women’s and men’s employment figures with proxy-reported data from spouses. Women’s self-reported workforce participation surpasses proxy-reported estimates by six percentage points, while men’s estimates exhibit negligible differences. There are significant differences in the type of employment activities reported by self and proxy for both women and men. These divergences emanate from asymmetric measurement errors, stemming from gender-based norm disparities between spouses, and divergent interpretations of employment. Additionally, information asymmetry between spouses concerning women’s marginal activities and disparities in spousal characteristics contribute to these self-proxy differences. The second experiment investigates if framing of questions and recall period has an impact on reporting of labor market outcomes. We find that employing multiple questions to capture weekly employment status yields a 10-percentage-point increase in reported women’s workforce participation, but men’s participation rate decreases by six percentage points. Furthermore, when a distinct employment query is directed at each day of the preceding week as opposed to a single query for the entire week, reported women’s workforce participation increases by seven percentage points, and men’s by four percentage points.
Topic:: Development, Employment, Survey, Methods, and Gender
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

2417. Jobless growth and structural transformation: Some theoretical considerations and empirical evidence from India

Author:: Zico Dasgupta and Amit Basole
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: The decoupling of output growth and employment growth, known popularly as “jobless growth” has been a problem plaguing many countries. Using cross-country data, we show that India has underperformed significantly on job creation compared to the average developing country with lower than average employment elasticities at both the aggregate level and for the non-agricultural sector. Strikingly, we find a one-for-one relationship between output growth and productivity growth in India’s non-agricultural sector, i.e. a Kaldor-Verdoorn coefficient of one. Despite this joblessness of growth, the Indian economy has experienced some structural transformation with the share of the non-agricultural sector and the share of regular wage employment rising at the expense of agriculture and self-employment. We develop a theoretical model which clarifies the relative roles of labour demand and labour supply in determining the output-employment relationship. In this model, the Indian case of some structural transformation even with jobless growth emerges as one case among four possible cases (growth with or without jobs / structural change or no structural change). We conclude with some policy implications.
Topic:: Employment, Economic Growth, Gender, Structural Transformation, and Jobless Growth
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

2418. Telephone surveys for data collection – some reflections

Author:: Rosa Abraham and Mridhula Mohan
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: Phone-based surveys have emerged as important survey tool with their use increasing particularly during the pandemic-induced lockdowns. However, the use of phone-based surveys comes with concerns around sampling and reporting – the former refers to issues in terms of reaching the intended respondents and adequate representation of different groups while the latter relates to the quality of data collected. Based on a phone-survey of a pre-existing cross-section of households in Karnataka and Rajasthan conducted during the lockdowns of 2020, this paper looks at how sampling and reporting issues play out especially with regard to speaking to women. Access to women, via phone surveys, is limited since most women do not have their own phone, and even if they are reached, they may not have the freedom to respond to all questions asked. We recommend a detailed protocol with multiple callbacks and rescheduling of calls that reduce sampling errors and allow for greater reach of women respondents and minimise discretionary decisions from the enumerators . We also recommend a set of questions to enumerators to help reflect on the quality of data collected. While phone surveys cannot replace in-person surveys, in the event they are used, a well designed protocol along with the use of meta and para data can go a long way in enhancing the quality and reliabilty of the data.
Topic:: Women, Employment, Survey, Methods, and Data Collection
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

2419. The Unhappy Marriage of Women’s Work and Spousal Violence in India

Author:: Vijayshree Jayaraman
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: Gender-based violence against women is a public health crisis that highlights the persistent gender inequalities present in our society. Informed by theories in several disciplines, spousal violence can be modelled as a multi-faceted phenomenon arising from the intersection of many factors, that may either be a risk or buffer factors. This papers tries to understand if a women’s employment is a risk or buffer factor for spousal violence. We use the NFHS 4 data-set and develop linear probability models to understand the different channels through which employment may change the likelihood of violence. We find that, being employed makes a woman more vulnerable to spousal violence, particularly if the woman earns more than the husband. Adding to that, we find evidence suggesting ‘female guilt’ present in working wives, where they justify spousal violence especially if ‘the wife is unfaithful’. We argue the need to account for different form of violence while studying spousal violence, which has not been studied previously in the literature and present results for the same.
Topic:: Women, Employment, Gender Based Violence, Domestic Violence, and Bargaining
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

2420. Estimating the productivity gap between organised and unorganised small-scale units in India’s manufacturing sector

Author:: Amit Basole, Dimple Chopde, and Paaritosh Nath
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: Small manufacturing firms are considered to be engines of growth and job creation. While most research on small firms focuses on formal sector units, in India informal sector units far outnumber the formal. This is true even for manufacturing units employing 5 to 49 workers, which constitute only 5% of all unorganised units, but in absolute numbers are nine times more numerous than organised units in the same size class. Such firms have the potential to contribute to structural transformation but their capacities vis-a-vis formal firms are not well understood. To address this, we create a unit-level dataset combining Annual Survey of Industries data for organised (formal) units with the National Sample Survey data on unorganised (informal) units. We also discuss problems involved in this exercise and some ways to deal with them. We find that matching organised and unorganised units on observable characteristics reduces the labour productivity differences between them to around 25 percent. We discuss some policy implications of our results.
Topic:: Employment, Manufacturing, Productivity, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

2421. Labour Market Flows and Gender Differentials in Urban Unemployment Over the Pandemic

Author:: Paaritosh Nath
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: Utilising data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey, we estimate quarterly changes in urban labour market flows over the period 2018 to 2022 and the impact on unemployment rates for men and women. Our analysis provides non-intuitive explanations for established findings as well as pointing out important questions for further study. Both men and women’s unemployment rates have reduced in 2022 compared to 2018, showing rapid reductions following the high levels reached during the lockdown. Women’s unemployment rates have consistently been higher than men throughout this period. The gap between men and women’s unemployment rates reduced during the lockdown, but have shown signs of increasing since 2021, even as unemployment rates have fallen. For women, flows from the labour force to non-participation play a larger role in explaining changes in unemployment rates as compared to men. Flows from the labour force to non-participation, however, have reduced since the pandemic, providing an explanation as to why labour force participation rates have increased, namely, women staying for longer in the labour force rather than more women entering it. Despite rising labour force participation rates, the gender gap in unemployment rates have risen, in contrast to developed economies.
Topic:: Urban, Unemployment, COVID-19, Labor Market, and Gender
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Global Focus

2422. China Maritime Report No. 25: More Chinese Ferry Tales: China's Use of Civilian Shipping in Military Activities, 2021-2022

Author:: J. Michael Dahm
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: This report provides a comprehensive assessment of Chinese civilian shipping support to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), examining civil maritime-military activities from October 2021 through September 2022. As of 2022, the PLA and its reserve civilian merchant fleet are still probably unable to provide significant amphibious landing capabilities or the maritime logistics in austere or challenging environments necessary to support a major cross-strait invasion of Taiwan. However, large volume lift exercises conducted in 2022 suggest that the PLA has made significant progress in the use of civilian vessels for the large-scale lift of PLA troops and equipment into undefended ports, a capability that may be leveraged in a military assault on Taiwan. This report also discusses other civil maritime-military activities not previously observed, including the use of civilian vessels and infrastructure to conceal PLA troop movements, operations from austere ports, use of ocean-going vessels to transport PLA forces along inland waterways, and logistics support for China’s South China Sea outposts.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Military Affairs, Shipping, Logistics, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

2423. China Maritime Report No. 26: Beyond the First Battle: Overcoming a Protracted Blockade of Taiwan

Author:: Lonnie D. Henley
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: If there is a war over Taiwan, an extended Chinese blockade is likely to determine the outcome. While a blockade might include intercepting ships at sea, the primary focus would be on sealing airfields and ports, particularly on the west coast of Taiwan. China could sustain that type of blockade indefinitely. Penetrating a prolonged blockade and keeping Taiwan alive would require a serious U.S. investment in systems and operational concepts that we currently do not have. Unless we make that investment, we may win the first battle, defeating an attempted landing. But we cannot win the war.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Military Affairs, Maritime, Port, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Blockade
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

2424. China Maritime Report No. 27: PLA Navy Submarine Leadership - Factors Affecting Operational Performance

Author:: Roderick Lee
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: The way the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) selects and manages its submarine officers increases the likelihood of human performance errors onboard a PLAN submarine. First, PLAN submarine officers are selected from applicants with among the lowest college entrance examinations of any PLA educational institution, suggesting that PLAN submariners are among the service’s least talented officers. Second, the Party Committee system at the apex of decision-making aboard PLAN submarines may be less agile than other approaches to command, at least in certain circumstances. Lastly, while the policy of embarking flotilla leaders senior to the submarine captain may reduce some of the negative effects associated with the first two conditions, it could lead to reduced performance when senior leaders are not present. If external events during wartime stressed these factors, the likelihood of human-induced error events in the PLAN submarine force could increase substantially.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Leadership, Navy, Maritime, Submarines, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2425. China Maritime Report No. 28: Bitterness Ends, Sweetness Begins: Organizational Changes to the PLAN Submarine Force Since 2015

Author:: J. Michael Dahm and Alison Zhao
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: “Above-the-neck” reforms in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) that began in 2015 directed the development of a new joint operational command system that resulted in commensurate changes to PLA Navy submarine force command and control. Additional changes to tactical submarine command and control were driven by the evolution and expansion of PLA Navy surface and airborne capabilities and the introduction of new longer-range submarine weapons. Follow-on “below-theneck” reforms inspired significant organizational change across most of China’s military services. However, the PLA Navy submarine force, for its part, did not reorganize its command structure but instead focused on significant improvements to the composition and quality of its force. Between 2017 and 2023, the PLA Navy submarine force engaged in a notable transformation, shuffling personnel and crews among twenty-six submarines—eleven newly commissioned and fifteen since retired—relocating in-service submarines to ensure an equitable distribution of newer, more capable submarines across the fleet. Observations of infrastructure improvements at PLA Navy submarine bases portend even more changes to submarine force structure in the coming years.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Reform, Maritime, Submarines, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2426. China Maritime Report No. 29: PLAN Mine Countermeasures: Platforms, Training, and Civil-Military Integration

Author:: Brian Waidelich and George Pollitt
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has made incremental progress in its mine countermeasures (MCM) program in recent years. The PLAN’s current inventory of about 60 MCM ships and craft includes classes of minehunters and minesweepers mostly commissioned in the past decade as well as unmanned surface vessels (USVs) and remotely operated vehicles with demonstrated explosive neutralization capability. Despite the addition of these advanced MCM platforms and equipment, experts affiliated with the PLAN and China’s mine warfare development laboratory have serious reservations about the PLAN’s current ability to respond to the full range of likely threats posed by naval mines in future contingencies. The PLAN’s MCM forces are currently organized for operations near China’s coastline, but writings by Chinese military and civilian experts contend that to safeguard Beijing’s expanding overseas interests, the PLAN must develop MCM capabilities for operations far beyond the First Island Chain. PLAN and civilian mine warfare experts have proposed various solutions for offsetting perceived shortcomings in the PLAN’s MCM program, including the development of autonomous USVs and unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), deployment of modularized MCM mission packages on ships such as destroyers and frigates, and mobilization of civilian assets such as ships and helicopters in support of MCM operations. Although there appears to have been little to no adoption of these proposed solutions to date, the PLAN recognizes MCM as one of its biggest challenges, and one can expect the PLAN to continue making measured progress in its MCM program in the years ahead.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Integration, Landmines, Civil-Military Relations, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2427. China Maritime Report No. 30: A Brief Technical History of PLAN Nuclear Submarines

Author:: Christopher P. Carlson and Howard Wang
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: After nearly 50 years since the first Type 091 SSN was commissioned, China is finally on the verge of producing world-class nuclear-powered submarines. This report argues that the propulsion, quieting, sensors, and weapons capabilities of the Type 095 SSGN could approach Russia’s Improved Akula I class SSN. The Type 095 will likely be equipped with a pump jet propulsor, a freefloating horizontal raft, a hybrid propulsion system, and 12-18 vertical launch system tubes able to accommodate anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles. China’s newest SSBN, the Type 096, will likewise see significant improvements over its predecessor, with the potential to compare favorably to Russia’s Dolgorukiy class SSBN in the areas of propulsion, sensors, and weapons, but more like the Improved Akula I in terms of quieting. If this analysis is correct, the introduction of the Type 095 and Type 096 would have profound implications for U.S. undersea security.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Armed Forces, Maritime, Submarines, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2428. China Maritime Report No. 31: China's Submarine Industrial Base: State-Led Innovation with Chinese Characteristics

Author:: Sarah Kirchberger
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: In recent years, China’s naval industries have made tremendous progress supporting the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) submarine force, both through robust commitment to research and development (R&D) and the upgrading of production infrastructure at the country’s three submarine shipyards: Bohai Shipyard, Huludao; Wuchang Shipyard, Wuhan; and Jiangnan Shipyard, Shanghai. Nevertheless, China’s submarine industrial base continues to suffer from surprising weaknesses in propulsion (from marine diesels to fuel cells) and submarine quieting. Closer ties with Russia could provide opportunities for China to overcome these enduring technological limitations by exploiting political and economic levers to gain access to Russia’s remaining undersea technology secrets.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Navy, Industry, Submarines, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2429. The Maritime Fulcrum of the Indo-Pacific: Indonesia and Malaysia Respond to China’s Creeping Expansion in the South China Sea

Author:: Scott Bentley
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: China now is attempting to expand its control to the southernmost extent of its nine-dash-line claim in the South China Sea, in waters ever closer to Indonesian and Malaysian shores. This area of the South China Sea, spanning from Indonesia’s Natuna Islands to the South Luconia Shoals, has greater strategic importance than the Spratly or Paracel Island chains farther to the north. Whereas the Spratlys have for centuries been regarded as “dangerous ground” and commercial mariners have avoided them, the vital sea lines of communication (SLOCs) connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans flow through this part of the southern South China Sea. Therefore, these areas are far more vital to international commerce and navigation than the dangerous grounds closer to China’s Spratly Islands outposts.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Armed Forces, Maritime, Commerce, and Expansion
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, Indo-Pacific, and South China Sea

2430. Climate Adaptation in Africa: Locally Led and Nature Based Solutions

Author:: Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
Abstract:: Climate change continues to cause damage in Africa. It triggers food insecurity, poverty and displacement. The impacts of climate change are being exacerbated by rapid urbanization, geopolitical tensions, headwinds caused by the invasion of Ukraine and its impacts on agricultural exports and fertilizers. Equally important, inflationary pressures, risks of global and regional economic recession, and unsustainable debt levels for many countries are amplifying the impacts of climate shocks on African economies and communities. Our recent analysis by the Global Center for Adaptation (GCA)1 shows that Africa is ground zero for the climate emergency. The climate is changing, and Africa needs to adapt. It must adapt to rising temperatures, more extreme storms, and floods, rising sea levels, more intense heatwaves, and longer and more severe droughts. However, an enormous funding gap on adaptation is holding Africa back. This policy brief analyses climate adaptation financial flows to Africa and argues that the limited resources available to Africa for adaptation need to be used in the most efficient and productive manner to dampen the combined impacts of climate shocks and economic downturns. Nature-based solutions (NbS) and Locally Led Adaptation programs (LLA) are critical in this respect. Moreover, multilateralism and collaboration between governments, international organizations, international financial institutions, civil society, and the private sector are critical to ensure more support for adaptation in Africa.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Food Security, Nature, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Africa

2431. South Caucasus at the Crossroad of Peace and War

Author:: Farid Shafiyev
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Caucasus Strategic Perspectives
Institution:: Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)
Abstract:: The current issue of the Caucasus Strategic Perspectives (CSP) journal entitled “South Caucasus at the Crossroad of Peace and War” is dedicated to the different mediation activities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Armenia’s internationally wrongful acts and foreign policy, Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, as well as the news initiatives in the South Caucasus region. The CSP’s new issue includes 7 articles. The CSP’s current authors analysed the EU’s and the US’s mediator roles to reconcile Armenia and Azerbaijan, Armenia’s international responsibility in relation to the formerly occupied territories of Azerbaijan, Russia-Armenia relations, the perspective of the Middle Corridor, and Iran-Armenia relations and its implications for Azerbaijan, etc.
Topic:: Nationalism, Territorial Disputes, European Union, Mediation, Peacebuilding, Regional Security, Russia-Ukraine War, and Ecocide
Political Geography:: Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and United States of America

2432. Incivility in Diplomacy as a Reflection of the Crisis in Foreign Policy Culture

Author:: V. Chumakov
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: The 2020s have been characterized by a profound crisis of confidence in international relations and world politics manifested in the use of political, psychological, and rhetorical methods and techniques that are atypical of traditional diplomatic practices and do not correspond to generally recognized norms of diplomatic protocol. Such manifestations include, for example, the use of unverified information and disinformation, the dissemination of deliberately false information (“fake news”), the unilateral disclosure of confidential face-to-face or telephone conversations to the media, and the publication of diplomatic correspondence not only as an unofficial translation but also as direct copies of informational documents (notes, letters, telegrams, and attachments to them). We also see the use of undiplomatic expressions (accusations, insults, namecalling, threats, blackmail, jokes) against counterpart or senior foreign or international officials, albeit primarily behind their backs, as well personal correspondence between such individuals on publicly available electronic mail services, instant messengers, and social networks.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, European Union, OSCE, New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

2433. Emerging Contours of a New, Just World

Author:: B. Gryzlov, P. Frolov, and V. Vanke
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: Thirty-two years ago, an event took place that American political scientist Francis Fukuyama claimed marked the “end of history.” It was argued that the disappearance of the Soviet Union from the world political scene and the end of the Soviet socialist project meant that there was no socioeconomic alternative to a liberal capitalist world order – a system that puts the individual above society and private business above national interests and gives overconsumption priority over progress. What did the collapse of the Soviet system, the dissolution of the Warsaw Treaty Organization, and the breakup of the Eastern bloc lead to? In the wake of all this and with political support from their governments, British, German, French, and American companies received unlimited sway over a market representing nearly 420 million people, of whom 290 million represented the total population of former Soviet republics and the other 130 million the population of former Eastern bloc countries. In addition to vast opportunities for the sale of consumer and other goods, Western countries gained access to rich natural resources, including natural gas and oil, and this brought about unprecedented industrial growth in Western Europe.
Topic:: History, Soviet Union, Post-Soviet Space, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Soviet Union, South Ossetia, and Post-Soviet Europe

2434. Prescription for Military Paralysis: Wartime Reactor Meltdowns (Occasional Paper 2305)

Author:: Henry Sokolski
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:: More than 15 months into the war, Russian attacks against Ukraine’s nuclear plants have yet to release any radiation. As the likelihood of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant reopening quickly declines and Putin’s desire to distract the world from his declining political and military standing increases, some experts fear he may want to induce a radiological release from the plant. In any case, Putin’s military assaults against the Zaporizhzhia plant have already set a worrying precedent. Last December, NPEC held a wargame, the results of which The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists just published, to examine what might happen in a future Russian invasion of Ukraine. In this reinvasion in 2037, Russia targets power reactors in Ukraine, Poland, and Romania. The United States plans to build scores of new reactors in these countries. What if Russian missiles targeted them in a future war? NPEC tapped the expertise of Ukrainians, Romanians, NATO officials, Poles, US security experts, and Hill staff to find out. It hosted five sessions over two weeks and ran a three-move wargame. The game’s play revealed how the uncertainties and dangers of military attacks against nuclear power plants can paralyze decision-making and fundamentally alter the course of wars. The military disruptions these uncertainties introduce may far outstrip the safety issues any reactor radiological release might otherwise present. The game’s play revealed three reasons why.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Military Affairs, Nonproliferation, War Games, Nuclear Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2435. Commercial Satellite Use Catalyzes Nuclear-Armed States to Combat: A Wargame After-Action Report (Occasional Paper 2306)

Author:: Henry Sokolski
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:: Recent reports of Elon Musk’s refusal to allow Ukraine to use his satellites to help it mount strikes against Russian military targets in Crimea pose a basic question: Just how sustainable might military use of commercial satellites be? So far, the United States and other spacefaring nations have deferred or taken a hands-off approach to dealing with this issue. When it comes to space, states are roughly where they were with sea power in the 1600s and air power before World War I: dramatic acts of air war and naval piracy were about to ensue, but instituting national or international regulation hardly seemed urgent… until they were. How prepared are we to deal with such a transition in space? Can we keep non-state and state actors from using space to intensify the pace of military air and ground operations? Or are space Lusitanias, in which the world’s major powers get dragged into wars, more likely? To find out, the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) designed and conducted a wargame this summer tailored to this purpose. SpaceNews published the game’s results (see below). The game’s play begins in 2027 with a Pakistani terrorist group’s hijacking of “commercial” Chinese satellite services to mount an attack against an Indian nuclear base. The terrorists’ aim is to drag Pakistan into a war with India to help decide the status of Kashmir. Through a number of twists and turns, the game ends with intensified ground operations between Pakistan and India and China and the United States engaging in space combat against a set of each others’ commercial space satellites. Are we ready for this future? The short answer is no. The long answer can be teased from the game’s report and its key takeaways below.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, Space, War Games, Satellite, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: South Asia and Asia

2436. Space: America's New Strategic Front Line

Author:: Henry D. Sokolski
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:: Last week, the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States released its final report. Although Congress tasked it to assess the role of space systems in America’s strategic posture, the commission dedicated less than a half-page of its 160-page review to this matter. Of its 20 pages of specific recommendations, the commission made none on space. This seems odd. As China and Russia build up their nuclear arsenals well beyond what America has deployed, the cost and impracticality of quantitatively countering these threats only grows. The commission report rightly recommends the United States make its strategic nuclear forces less vulnerable to a potential first strike. But what of the argument that to do this America and its allies must be able to stun or disable its adversaries’ military eyes, ears, voices, and nervous systems both on Earth and in space? Those who argue this maintain that if America commands space, it can be assured of victory in war and, better yet, be able to deter conflicts. Does it follow that if America and its allies lose assured command of space, acquiring more and better nuclear weapons may be for naught? What does securing command of space demand? What would it enable our military to do? What space capabilities are our key space adversary — China — and our key Asian allies—Japan and South Korea — planning to employ? What will implementing America’s current space strategy entail and cost? What might alternatives to this strategy entail? Which, if any, space capacities and military actions does the Outer Space Treaty (to which Russia, China, the United States, and most states in Asia and Europe are parties) allow or prohibit? Can these limits be enforced? What can space war simulations do to help get the answers? NPEC commissioned some of the nation’s top military and legal space experts to examine these issues. It then held a series of space simulations to test their answers out. The result, which my staff and I are releasing today, is a 354-page volume, Space: America’s New Strategic Front Line (introduction below). It features insights from space policy experts and practitioners and more than suggests that strategic deterrence will depend on securing space superiority.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, and Space
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, China, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

2437. A Year of War: A Reporter's View of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (3/23/23)

Author:: Joshua Yaffa and Keith Gessen
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year, Joshua Yaffa, who spent a decade living and reporting in Russia, has traveled across Ukraine—where he also has deep experience as a journalist—witnessing the war up close and publishing regularly in The New Yorker. He will share his impressions from his numerous reporting trips, which began in the early, fraught days in Kyiv, when the capital was the primary target of the Russian military; to Kharkiv, a historically Russian-speaking city that has faced relentless rocket and artillery fire; from the decimated towns of the Donbas to Zaporizhzhia, a regional capital in the south that became a waystation for Ukrainians fleeing the horrors of Mariupol and elsewhere. Yaffa will describe how the conflict looks and feels on the ground, whether for civilians trapped under bombardment or newly enlisted soldiers. He will also discuss a number of key questions at the start of the war's second year. What has been the role and effect of Western military aid? What sort of end to the fighting is possible? And how will both Russia and Ukraine be forever changed as a result?
Topic:: Conflict, Journalism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

2438. Jewish Female Mental Health Professionals between Poland, the Nazis, and America (3/29/23)

Author:: Klara Naszkowska and Christopher Caes
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: The forced migration of the Jewish people from Europe to the United States in 1933-1941 is one of the most significant phenomena in twentieth–century intellectual history. However, close to nothing has been written on over eighty Jewish women mental-health professionals (mostly psychoanalysts) who fled Nazi persecution to the US, where they became “essential workers” in mental-health care when America joined World War II. Their professional contributions notwithstanding, they are now neglected, understudied, and at risk of being forgotten. The presentation introduces the diaspora of Polish Jewish mental-health professionals: psychoanalysts, social workers, child welfare workers, social psychologists, and body psychotherapists. It will discuss their personal and professional biographies, including family and religious backgrounds, education and career patterns, experiences of exile and (non)belonging, their relationships with the past, and the construction of national, spiritual and cultural identities, with a special attention to Jewish identity. The presentation is based on an ongoing research project located at the intersection of Jewish gender and women’s studies, personal and oral history, and immigration. The primary source of information on the women under investigation is archival personal accounts: unpublished memoirs, correspondence, interviews, diaries, remnants, memories, and post–memories, along with original interviews with family members, friends, and colleagues.
Topic:: History, Holocaust, Forced Migration, Jewish community, and Nazi Germany
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Poland, North America, and United States of America

2439. A Conversation with Azovstal Defender Illia Samoilenko (2/24/23)

Author:: Illia Samoilenko and Elise Giuliano
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: 28 year-old Ukrainian Lieutenant Illia Samoilenko was the deputy commander of the National Guards of Azov. Days before the Azovstal surrender in May, Lieutenant Samoilenko held a news conference broadcast live from a bunker beneath the steelworks. At this press conference, he described for two hours the desperate conditions that wounded soldiers faced. He also said that he and all the others saw themselves as “dead men.” Samoilenko was held in solitary confinement as a prisoner of war by the Russian Federation for 120 days before he was released in a prisoner swap last month.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Azovstal
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Mariupol

2440. Propaganda Addiction: How Russians Learned to Trust the Kremlin's Falsehoods

Author:: Anton Shirikov
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the world was shocked to learn how often Russians fell for the Kremlin’s pro-war propaganda pushed through loyal state media. Some citizens even trusted television reports more than they believed their own family members in Ukraine. In his talk, Dr. Shirikov will explain how authoritarian media can gain and cultivate such public trust, presenting evidence from surveys and experiments he conducted in Russia in recent years. He will discuss whether Russians are–as scholars often think–sophisticated and discerning news consumers, why they find propaganda messages credible, and why so few of them seek alternative information sources. This research offers insights into how Vladimir Putin’s regime manages public opinion and maintains acceptance of the war.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, Media, Propaganda, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

2441. FACTORS IN CONSTRUCTING INDONESIA’S PERSPECTIVES ON THE INDO-PACIFIC

Author:: Mohd. Agoes Aufiya
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The term “Indo-Pacific” became increasingly significant and was accepted by several countries, including Indonesia. The government welcomed the term as part of its foreign policy projection, which developed its unique perspective or interpretation, including inclusivity, a rule based on international law, and ASEAN’s centrality and cooperation for regional growth. This study would answer the question of how the concept of Indo-Pacific will be interpreted within Indonesia's unique context compared to other countries. Thus, this research aimed to describe several key factors in constructing the Indonesian perspective on the Indo-Pacific concept, particularly under President Jokowi’s leadership. This research applied qualitative with library methods from the primary and secondary data sources. This paper argued six factors that constructed Indonesia’s perspective on Indo-Pacific: maritime historical legacy; the “Bebas-Aktif” principle; ASEAN values; geographical position; and democratic values. The research concluded that Indonesia is one of the major countries that consistently championed the term “Indo-Pacific” within the regional and international spheres, with a “moderate” status in terms of its foreign policy implementation, which is mainly characterized by inclusivity and cooperation in the economy by constructively engaging all countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Economy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific

2442. EXAMINATION OF DECISION-MAKING STRUCTURES’ PERCEPTIONS OF COMPONENTS ON THE INFLUENCES OF SME SUCCESS

Author:: Muhamet Spahiu and Esat A. Durguti
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have succeeded in being the main and dynamic pillar of national and international economies. Education and work experience is essential in increasing SMEs’ efficiency and competitiveness. The changing business environment has created fierce competitiveness among SMEs, requiring active interaction between managers/owners and stakeholders. As a result, this study aims to explore the influence of education, experience, using a business plan, and barriers on the success of small and medium-sized businesses. This research employed an online questionnaire for scientific research. Through ordered logistic modeling, we observed 336 answers from businesses using the qualitative approach. The study’s findings reveal that education and work experience have a statistically favorable influence on the performance of SMEs, whereas barriers have a substantial adverse influence. Findings on barriers are noteworthy in the context of this study since the governing institutions throughout the pandemic and later situations experimented with the measures adopted. The study also benefits SMEs and legislation authorities in understanding the critical concerns that are perceived as barriers to the growth and expansion of SMEs, resulting in the creation of even more sophisticated infrastructures to support sustainable development.
Topic:: Development, Education, Economy, Business, and Competition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2443. PROCESS TRACING AND PROFESSIONALIZATION OF POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS

Author:: Pratyush Paras Sarma
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Recent years have witnessed a significant inner transformation among political parties in both developed and developing democracies of the world. Different factors, such as changes in the structure of the media environment owing to the technological boom in the last two decades and changes in voting behavior, led to the transformation of the political parties in different democracies worldwide. Therefore, studying the patterns of this transformation has become an integral part of the current political science research. Early studies have demonstrated the indexes based on professionalization. However, limited studies have tried to examine the process of transformation relating to professionalization and are almost missing from the studies based on non-western democracies like India. Therefore, against this backdrop, this study tries to expand the literature by providing a theoretical framework consisting of causal mechanisms which would explain the process of professionalization of campaigns with special reference to Indian elections through the theory testing method of process tracing. The framework has been provided in a series of causal mechanisms to answer how the considered individual variables react when they come in contact. This paper concludes by justifying the conceptual framework of professionalization.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Political Parties, and Professionalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2444. THE IMPACT OF PUNISHMENT, BUDGET SPENDING, AND SOCIAL STIGMATIZATION ON FISCAL EVASION: THE CASE OF KOSOVO

Author:: Mentor Gashi and Ramadan Beqiri
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The purpose of this paper was to identify several factors that have an impact on tax evasion. Tax evasion is considered a problem for many different countries in the world, simultaneously attracting the curiosity of researchers. The study employed a convenience sampling technique and collected 221 questionnaires in Kosovo. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistical analysis, linear regression and are reflected in the matrix table of correlation coefficients. In this research, the statistical significance results appear the size of punishment, perception of spending of budget, and social stigma that has effected tax evasion. In this way, as lower the punishment for evaders effected non-encourage citizens to notify the tax evasion. Perception of non-spent properly of budget effected non-encourage citizens to notify the tax evasion. Also, when the lower was a social stigma for the evaders, it increased their willingness to tax evasion.
Topic:: Law Enforcement, Budget, Tax Systems, and Tax Evasion
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

2445. MILITARY SANCTIONS: THE WAR ON TERROR AND THE CASE OF UZBEKISTAN

Author:: Jonathan Honig
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: States frequently find themselves disbursing or receiving military aid, cooperation, and access to military products. Using foreign policy options like "military sanctions" (the suspension of military projects, aid, cooperation, and access) is a desirable, widely publicized way for one state to express its discontent to another while presumably influencing desired policy changes in the client state. However, the small amount of evidence on military sanctions indicates that they are ineffective, short-lived, and may even be counterproductive. This analysis attempted to elucidate this subject by advancing a theory stating that states will impose military sanctions in response to domestic audience pressures shortly after high-profile examples of undesirable behavior by client states. However, military sanctions will be eased as time progresses and public attention has waned. This analysis qualitatively examined Uzbekistan and its relationship with the US, finding support for this theory. It concluded that following high-profile incidents and periods of undesirable behavior by an aid-recipient state, military sanctions would likely be employed by the state providing the military aid and programs. Further, military sanctions are eased or scrapped as time moves from public incidents and attention involving human rights abuses.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Conflict, War on Terror, and Military
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Uzbekistan

2446. HUMANITARIAN DIPLOMACY STRATEGY FOR SYRIAN REFUGEES AND ITS EFFECT ON JORDAN’S FOREIGN POLICY

Author:: Emad Ayasreh
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This research examined the effect of Jordan’s humanitarian diplomacy strategy for Syrian refugees on its foreign policy and attempted to determine whether the strategy is financially sustainable. Humanitarian diplomacy is persuading decision-makers and leaders worldwide to act at all times and in all circumstances in the best interest of vulnerable populations by completely respecting fundamental humanitarian principles. Jordan has allowed many Syrian refugees to cross over and settle in Jordan. This study used a qualitative systematic literature review and quantitative data from the UNHCR to determine the effect of the strategy on Jordan’s foreign policy and whether the strategy could be sustained. The findings showed that Jordan’s stature in terms of its foreign policy has grown, leading to bilateral agreements and participation in international negotiations. However, its humanitarian strategy may not be sustainable with the current level of funding. The funding from foreign countries and international organizations has been insufficient to support the growing number of Syrian refugees in Jordan. The literature on this topic is limited, and comprehensive quantitative research is recommended to determine the future effect of the strategy on health care and education for Syrian refugees in Jordan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Humanitarian Aid, Refugees, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and Jordan

2447. THE ROLE OF REGIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS INSTITUTIONS IN TIMES OF ARMED CONFLICTS IN AFRICA

Author:: Ufuoma Veronica Awhefeada
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Armed conflict is a perennial problem that has plagued Africa for decades, resulting in flagrant human rights abuse. The central problem this paper seeks to address is identifying the laws establishing institutions and agencies for protecting human rights in Africa and examining how well-adapted these institutions are to protect human rights in times of armed conflict in Africa. This research employs the doctrinal research method, which entails an examination of the relevant primary sources of the law as laid down in the statutes and treaties and interpreted by the courts as well as secondary source materials, including journal articles, reports, and other relevant sources materials. It is contended that though human rights institutions were not established with the goal of interventions in times of armed conflict to protect human rights, they can be adapted to meet this challenge to stem the tide of gross human rights violations during armed conflicts. The paper concludes by recommending the expansion in the practice of the mandate of these human rights institutions to accommodate mechanisms for the protection of human rights in times of armed conflicts.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa

2448. POLICY OF RAISING THE CAPACITY OF LOCAL SELF-GOVERNMENTS FOR MANAGEMENT OF EMERGENCIES

Author:: Samed Karovic, Jasmina Brankovic, Sinisa Domazet, and Jelena Jesic
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Local self-governments (LSGs) cannot effectively manage emergencies. To overcome this problem, it is necessary to find action policies that would facilitate the increase of capacities of LSGs in such situations. The starting point for defining the policy was collecting data on the current abilities and capacities of LSGs in AP Vojvodina. The research covered 40% of the total number of LSGs and more than 64% of the population in the AP of Vojvodina. A combined open-ended survey questionnaire was constructed for data collection. The data was collected in field conditions through online procedures, direct sending of written surveys, and direct discussion of project implementation leaders. The statistical analysis of data identified that the legal aspect of LSGs and emergencies was not harmonized with other institutional documents at the level of LSGs. Most LSGs had serious difficulties in managing emergencies, especially civil protection. The platform is envisaged to facilitate raising the prevention capacity of LSGs by integrating all relevant information to provide early warnings and indications for implementing corresponding organizational, technical, and economic measures to deal with emergencies.
Topic:: Security, Law, Business, Knowledge Management, and Emergencies
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Serbia

2449. EFFECT OF CORRUPTION ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT INFLOWS IN COUNTRIES OF THE WESTERN BALKANS

Author:: Artan Hajdini, Lum Collaku, and Safet Merovci
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of corruption on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the Western Balkans countries, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Albania. Secondary data from The World Bank, Transparency International, and International Monetary Fund databases were utilized to complete this study for 2012-2020. The built model of multiple linear regression included four independent variables, namely: Corruption Perception Index (CPI), Western Balkan Corruption Ranking (WBCR), Exchange Rate (EXG), and Inflation Rate (INFL), as well as FDI as a dependent variable, and data effects were analyzed through the SPPS scientific research software program. The results found that if CPI and WBCR were to increase by one unit, FDI would decrease by 0.088, namely 0.624, while if EXG and INFL were to increase by one unit, FDI would increase by 0.165, namely 0.236. In order to fight corruption and potentially attract more foreign direct investment, the governments of these countries should work to harmonize their anti-corruption laws with those of the European Union. In order to prevent the negative consequences of FDI inflows, they should also maintain a balanced rate of inflation, which entails stabilizing exchange rate fluctuations.
Topic:: Corruption, Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Policy, and Inflation
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Balkans

2450. INDIA@75: ASSESSING INDIA’S USE OF SOFT POWER AS A FOREIGN POLICY INSTRUMENT

Author:: Mohammad Reyaz
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The term soft power has become a catch-all-phrase for public and cultural diplomacy since Joseph Nye introduced it in 1990. India has had several historical and cultural advantages regarding its influence in foreign countries. While India and Indians enjoyed goodwill in most countries, the sudden interests in India among the policymakers, businesses, and politicians were mainly after the 1992 economic liberalization that had opened the Indian markets to foreign investments. Besides the nation-branding exercises globally, New Delhi employed soft power instruments in countries it deemed to have more significant interests, from traditional allies like Bhutan and Afghanistan to the countries in the West in the last three decades. Nevertheless, how successful has India been in exploiting its cultural linkages and using its soft power in its branding? This question becomes pertinent as, in recent years, India has often received negative press coverage in international media, and on several freedom/democratic indices, its rankings have gone down. As India celebrates 75 years of independence as Azadi ka Mahotsav (a grand celebration of independence), this paper assesses the scope of its soft power as a foreign policy instrument, points out its shortcomings, and recommends the possibilities.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Soft Power, Cultural Diplomacy, Public Diplomacy, and Bollywood
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

2451. IMPROVING WOMEN’S EMPOWERMENT THROUGH DEVOLUTION IN KENYA: THE CASE OF NAIROBI AND KAKAMEGA COUNTIES

Author:: Sylvester Chisika and Chunho Yeom
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This study aimed to investigate the progress of women's empowerment through employment opportunities in Nairobi and Kakamega Counties in Kenya between 2013 and 2017. Despite the increasing policies that aim to mainstream social equity and equality, there is still a significant gap between policy commitments and practices. The study evaluated whether the implementation of devolved governance in the two counties has improved women's empowerment. The study's framework included an in-depth review of policy documents, official records, and reports from official websites to understand women's economic empowerment status in Nairobi and Kakamega. The study analyzed qualitative and quantitative data from County Integrated Development Plans and other secondary sources. Specifically, it examined compliance with the 30% gender rule, requiring women to hold at least 30% of all elective and appointive positions. The study found that Nairobi commands the largest share of formal sector wage employment in Kenya, and women's access to employment opportunities remains slightly lower than men in both counties. Despite implementing the 30% gender rule, the study revealed the need for more comprehensive policies that promote gender equality and women's economic empowerment in both Nairobi and Kakamega.
Topic:: Employment, Sustainable Development Goals, Representation, and Gender
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

2452. ELECTORAL BONDS: A PERIL TO DEMOCRACY AND TRANSPARENT ELECTIONS IN INDIA

Author:: D. Ananda
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: A democracy is built on free and fair elections. India is one of the world's most populous democratic countries. In 2018, the Indian government launched a new electoral bonds scheme to fund elections. Electoral bonds influence election funding and make it easier for corporate entities to conceal political donations by concealing the bond’s buyer and beneficiary details. The new electoral bonds scheme lures companies and facilitates money laundering. The present article critically evaluates the electoral bonds scheme by analyzing the various acts and statutes. However, the Indian judiciary evaded its role as guardian of the constitution and final interpreter of the constitution by not deciding the cases pending in court. The scheme provides an unfair advantage to the ruling party. Anonymity and secrecy harm accountability in a democracy. The new election funding scheme undermines transparency and fair elections. This new election funding scheme has exacerbated the situation in Indian democracy. This new mechanism of election funding keeps voters in the dark about whether the governing party favors corporate donations.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Transparency, and Electoral Bonds
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

2453. FACTORING THE SMART POWER IN THE INDIA-EUROPEAN UNION ENGAGEMENTS: A SCOPING REVIEW

Author:: Nippun Gupta, Bawa Singh, Aslam Khan, and Jaspal Kaur
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Power is a critical factor in several types of diplomacy. India-EU relations are a classic case of how changing geopolitics prompted diplomatic acumen. This scoping review assesses the changing relations of both partners as a manifestation of Smart Power. The dynamic relations from normative-based to pragmatic and inclusive interests based are evaluated. Their value-based relations are put under international relations theories. Their changing factors of cooperation are used to justify their smart diplomacy, where contemporary relations are less likely to be affected by multilateral interests. To solidify claims of smart power in their relations, the recent TRIPS waiver schism illuminated health diplomacy between the two regions. This health diplomacy discourse promotes smart power diplomacy between India and the EU, where new avenues of cooperation emerge despite pandemic disagreements. The article explores how hybrid power is better than soft and hard power in silos by systematically searching and selecting the existing knowledge in the contemporary context.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Health, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Soft Power, Hard Power, and Smart Power
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, and India

2454. WHAT DOES “BIG DATA” TELL? A NETWORK ANALYSIS APPROACH TO THE JUSTICE AND DEVELOPMENT PARTY’S ROLE PERFORMANCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST BETWEEN 2015 AND 2020

Author:: Hikmet Menguaslan and Sadullah Celik
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: In this paper, we exploited big data (The Global Database Events, Language and Tone - GDELT) by utilizing network analysis to elaborate on the Justice and Development Party’s (JDP) Middle East (ME) policy for 2015 and 2020 - our conceptual framework built on the role theory. We identified two dynamics - the positioning of the “Transatlantic” link in Turkish Foreign Policy’s (TFP) orientation and the shape and politics of the JDP elites’ conception of activism - based on which we developed two hypotheses to conceptualize the JDP’s role performance for the period: 1) There was a mismatch between national role conceptions and systemic role prescriptions for Turkey in the period of analysis; 2) This mismatch led the appeal of partnership with non-Western actors to rise. We utilized network analysis by exploiting the GDELT big data set to test our hypotheses empirically. The empirical findings proved the validity of our conceptual arguments.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Political Science, and AKP
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

2455. RETHINKING STRATEGIC AUTONOMY IN TIMES OF NEXT GENERATION EU: NEW DIGITAL AGENDA

Author:: Miguel Angel Solsona and Marcin Roman Czubala Ostapiuk
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The digital transformation of the global economy and society has accelerated after the Covid-19 pandemic. The European Union (EU), compared to China and the United States, is losing its capacity for innovation and control over data and fundamental raw materials and could even lose ground in the regulatory power it has in the digital realm. This paper pays special attention to the situation and progress toward a new European policy to achieve digital strategic autonomy. It also briefly outlines the Recovery Plan for Europe as a possible incentive for its promotion. Both descriptive and analytical methods were employed to gather the data from secondary sources and provide reliable research results. The major findings of this article are that strategic autonomy is an imperative requirement for sustaining and encouraging European integration, forcing the EU to advance faster toward developing critical digital technologies. There is also an urgent need to secure critical parts of supply chains and data protection, intellectual property, and defense against disinformation. Finally, the European Union must improve its resilience to face new crises and lead the digitalization of its economy.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Economy, Autonomy, Digital Policy, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Europe

2456. PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM NORTH MACEDONIA

Author:: Katerina Shapkova Kocevska
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: In this paper, we studied the impact of public education expenditure on GDP per capita in North Macedonia from 1991 to 2020. The main questions we examined were: 1) What is the relationship between public education expenditure and GDP per capita in the country in the short run?; 2) Does a long-term relationship between the aforementioned variables exist?; and 3) What are the policy implications? This research was based on the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, originally developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The empirical estimations produced interesting findings. In the short run, the relationship between public spending on education and GDP per capita in North Macedonia was negative and statistically significant. The long-term relationship between the variables remained negative but statistically insignificant. These results were robust and consistent with results from earlier empirical studies. The results suggested that government expenditures on education did not contribute to economic growth in North Macedonia in the analyzed period, ceteris paribus. From a public policy standpoint, we concluded that intervention in the education system's financing is necessary to facilitate the transformation of education expenditures into productive human capital and enhance the nation's economic development.
Topic:: Development, Education, Economic Growth, Human Capital, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and North Macedonia

2457. BANK PROFITABILITY DETERMINANTS: EVIDENCE FROM KOSOVO AND ALBANIA

Author:: Vese Qehaja-Keka, Skender Ahmeti, and Muhamet Aliu
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This research aims to examine the factors that impact the profitability of commercial banks in Kosovo and Albania. Profitability is crucial in the financial sector as it directly affects policymakers, regulators, and bank management. The study focuses on several determinants of bank profitability, including the number of employees, loan interest rate, non-performing loans, and total loans. The study employed quarterly secondary data spanning from 2010 to 2020, resulting in 400 observations. The analysis used multiple linear regression, influenced by the huge number of observations and the applicability of ordinary least squares (OLS) for such studies. This method allowed for a thorough examination of the interactions between the dependent and independent variables, providing a more in-depth understanding of the factors driving bank profitability. The statistical significance was determined using software such as STATA and SPSS. The dependent variables in the analysis are return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE). The findings reveal that the loan interest rate, total loans, and non-performing loans significantly influence the profitability of the analyzed banks in Albania and Kosovo. Furthermore, the total number of loans and employees are statistically significant determinants of ROE. These findings provide valuable insights for bank management and policymakers in enhancing bank profitability and stability.
Topic:: Economics, Management, Banking, and Loans
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Albania

2458. SOVEREIGNTY OVER THE PARACEL ISLANDS IN 1884-1945: AN APPROACH FROM THE RIVALRY BETWEEN FRANCE, CHINA, AND JAPAN

Author:: Quyet Luu and Nguyet Nguyen
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The Paracel Islands are situated in the South China Sea geographic center and have an important strategic location for the military and the economy. Since 1884, France has represented the Vietnamese state as a protectorate to manage the archipelago. In the context of France seeking to expand its influence into the Asia-Pacific region, disputes over sovereignty over the Paracel Islands occurred during the colonial period between France (representing Vietnam), China, and Japan. The article aims to analyze the importance of the Paracel Islands in the policies of France, China, and Japan in general. Moreover, the specific activities of France in the struggle with China and Japan to affirm and protect sovereignty over the Paracel Islands would also be analyzed. Based on primary and secondary data, along with historical research methods, research methods in international relations, and other interdisciplinary research strategies, the article concludes that the Paracel Islands play an important role in the strategies of France, China, and Japan. Hence, the Paracel issue in this period has gone beyond the framework of traditional territorial disputes, becoming "internationalization” with consequences that persist to the present day. France's policy to exploit and administer the Paracel Islands was persistent, thorough, and systematic in the military, economic, political, and diplomatic spheres.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Sovereignty, History, Territorial Disputes, and Internationalization
Political Geography:: Japan, China, France, Asia-Pacific, South China Sea, and Paracel Islands

2459. EVALUATION OF THE PRINCIPLE OF TAX FAIRNESS IN THE TAX ON INCOME OF NATURAL PERSONS IN THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA

Author:: Sejdefa Dzafche
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The paper analyzed the development stages in the taxation of the income of natural persons in the Republic of North Macedonia through the prism of their compliance with the theoretical approaches in regulating the matter of income taxation. For this purpose, the initial stage of this research was the review of the impact of frequent amendments to the regulatory framework (relevant legislation) on the realization of the principles of vertical and horizontal justice. In the analysis of the normative-legal framework, the primary focus was the regulation’s influence on the realization of the principle of justice in taxation in the legal system of the Republic of North Macedonia (RNM). Additionally, the teleological method was used to identify the level of realization of the goals and functions of the RNM tax system. In that context, the effects of income taxation on the redistributive function were analyzed. The basic hypothesis from which the paper starts is that the frequent changes and modifications in income taxation concepts resulted in violating social-political principles in taxation. The research results indicate an inconsistency in the development of the system of income taxation of natural persons in RNM, which leads to a violation of the vertical and horizontal justice and the redistributive function of the income tax.
Topic:: Reform, Tax Systems, and Redistributive Function
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and North Macedonia

2460. DIGITAL SOFT POWER DIPLOMACY: THE CASES OF GERMANY, ITALY, AND SPAIN IN THE COUNTRIES OF EASTERN PARTNERSHIP AND CENTRAL ASIA

Author:: Borna Zguric and Lidija Kos-Stanisic
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The main objective of this article was to examine how Germany, Italy and Spain practice digital public diplomacy in Eastern Partnership and Central Asia countries in 2022, i.e., how they promote their countries through their embassies’ Facebook profiles. Three research questions posed by the authors were: 1) Which social networks and applications have embassies of Germany, Italy, and Spain used in the countries of Eastern Partnership and Central Asia to inform and communicate with different audiences?; 2) Which soft power tools were dominantly communicated by the German, Italian, and Spanish embassies on Facebook profiles in countries of Eastern Partnership and Central Asia during 2022 to promote their own countries?; and 3) Are digital diplomacy tools of Germany, Italy, and Spain, that they utilize to promote their own countries and communicate with the public of Eastern Partnership and Central Asia, following their foreign policy focus? The authors have used quantitative content and thematic analysis to answer these questions. The results were presented with the use of descriptive statistics. The authors’ findings indicated that digital diplomacy 2.0 is standard practice for Germany and Italy in Eastern Partnership and Central Asia. Less information was available regarding Spain’s digital diplomacy efforts. The research’s findings further demonstrated that Germany and Italy exhibit greater interest in the Eastern Partnership and Central Asian countries compared to Spain, which was concordant with their foreign policy focuses.
Topic:: Soft Power, Public Diplomacy, Digital Diplomacy, and Eastern Partnership
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Germany, Spain, and Italy

2461. THE REGIONAL DIMENSION OF CORRUPTION RISKS IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC IN THE LIGHT OF DECENTRALIZATION

Author:: Yevheniy Haydanka
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The article elucidates the relationship between decentralization and corruption risks in the Czech Republic. Economic inequality in the regions inevitably leads to corruption risks. The unemployment rate and the wage level determined the fragmentation of the Czech regions. Most Czech regions (8 out of 14) have an average unemployment rate (of 3-5%). The capital Prague (44 thousand korunas), as well as the Central Bohemian Region (35 thousand korunas), significantly differ from the rest of the Czech regions in wage level (within 31-32 thousand korunas). If the Czech regions are similar in the unemployment rate, there is a noticeable stratification between the capital and other regions. The findings of an expert survey among civil servants and deputies of regional Assemblies identified corruption and anti-corruption measures in the regions. The sphere of public administration is the most corrupt. Partially corrupt is the provision of administrative services. The greatest corruption risks result from the employees’ influence on funding sources (grants, subsidies and grants). On a 10-point scale, the average corruption in the regions is 5,8. More research prospects derive from studying corruption risks at the regional rather than national levels and expanding the geographical framework of the transition countries under research.
Topic:: Corruption, Risk, Unemployment, Decentralization, Wages, and Regionalization
Political Geography:: Europe and Czech Republic

2462. COMBATING CROSS-BORDER ORGANIZED CRIME IN THE BORDER REGION OF THE STATE: STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT METHODOLOGY

Author:: Oleh Farion, Dmytro Kupriyenko, Yurii Demianiuk, and Andrii Nikitiuk
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The article describes the methodology for the following successive stages: data collection on cross-border organized crime; analysis of the impact of PEST factors of the border region on the number of cross-border crimes committed by organized criminal groups; generalization and analysis of parameters for assessing the capabilities of organized criminal groups; assessment of the level of capabilities of organized criminal groups to commit cross-border crimes; passporting of organized criminal groups specializing in cross-border crimes; modeling of scenarios of the development of organized criminal groups illegal activities by types of cross-border crimes; selection of options for fighting cross-border organized crime by the targeted impact on organized criminal groups. The strategy envisages a complex of the following measures: rapid (operational) interventions in critical situations; anti-crisis measures of the border guard operation to neutralize threats; other regime and control measures to strengthen the protection of the state border; standard planned and preventive measures; measures of sustainable development of the border security system. Implementing the methodology in practice enables the development of a strategic approach to effectively utilize the resources of state law enforcement agencies in combating cross-border crime.
Topic:: Crime, Development, Law Enforcement, Borders, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Ukraine and Global Focus

2463. INFORMING GLOBAL HEALTH DIPLOMACY: EXAMINING HEALTH AND PEACE THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GLOBAL BURDEN OF DISEASE

Author:: Tomislav Mestrovic, Driton Kuqi, and Goran Bandov
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: In this study, we aimed to examine the interconnectedness of health and peace, recognizing its significance within global health diplomacy, international relations, and human rights. For that purpose, we used the results from previous and ongoing Global Burden of Disease studies, which represent a comprehensive systematic appraisal of health problems and risks affecting populations worldwide. This paper could use its methodological underpinnings to analyze the impact of war, conflict, and terrorism on mortality and overall human health. In 2000, war and conflict were responsible for an estimated 310,000 deaths globally, compared to 2019, when this number decreased to 69,000. Recent findings reinforced the association between war, conflict, and increased all-cause mortality. Interpersonal violence also significantly contributed to human health loss resulting from disrupted peace. In Europe, disability-adjusted life years due to injury – including those caused by conflict – declined between 2000 and 2019. As we prioritize global health, peace-building initiatives, and global health diplomacy, big data will increasingly play a substantial role in accurately predicting and describing the health effects related to conflicts.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Health, Terrorism, Conflict, Peace, and Disease
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2464. LEVERAGING EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT FOR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE: SATISFACTION AND WORK MOTIVATION MANAGEMENT

Author:: Faruk Ahmeti
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Companies must continually adapt to technological advancements to gain a competitive edge and enhance performance. Active employee engagement plays a crucial role in achieving and improving performance, necessitating promoting motivation and job satisfaction. This study explores the relationship between motivation, job satisfaction, and employee performance, with employee engagement as a mediator. Specifically, the research focuses on Information Technology (IT) companies in Kosovo and various locations across the European Union involved in different projects. The sample for this study comprises 112 respondents selected through convenient sampling. The research model is analyzed using Partial Least Square (PLS) analysis with SmartPLS 3.0 software. The empirical findings indicate that motivation positively influences employees’ engagement and performance in various IT positions. However, job satisfaction has no direct impact or exerts a relatively low influence. Nonetheless, employee engagement significantly enhances employee performance by mediating the effects of motivation and job satisfaction. The research findings have significant managerial implications, emphasizing the importance of actively promoting motivation, innovation, and job satisfaction to increase employee involvement and achieve desired outcomes.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Employment, Business, and Performance Evaluation
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

2465. UKRAINIAN MIGRATION DURING THE FIRST YEAR AFTER THE BEGINNING OF THE RUSSIAN ARMED CONFLICT IN 2022

Author:: Rossen Kostadinov Koroutchev
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This study examines the evolution of Ukrainian refugees during the first year after the start of the full-scale armed conflict on 24 February 2022, which resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis and high levels of migration both within Ukraine and towards Europe. Using official statistics, the changes in border crossings from Ukraine to neighboring countries during the first year of the conflict are investigated. Additionally, surveys conducted with Ukrainian refugees in several European countries and author interviews conducted in Bulgaria, Spain, and Germany reveal the specific needs of refugees and the main challenges to successful integration into host labor markets and societies. The Temporary Protection Directives and other local protection programs are analyzed in this study, accompanied by a comprehensive discussion on similar initiatives. The primary conclusion drawn from this research affirms the presence of substantial challenges in the successful integration of Ukrainian refugees into host societies, despite the efforts made by the respective governments.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Borders, and Integration
Political Geography:: Ukraine and Eastern Europe

2466. CHINA-INDIA COUNTERBALANCING MEASURES THROUGH INTERNATIONAL CORRIDORS AND PORTS: THE FOCUS ON CHABAHAR AND GWADAR PORTS

Author:: Kashif Hasan Khan and Ali Omidi
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Beijing and New Delhi, as new world emerging powers, despite border skirmishes, have not considered themselves arch-rivals. Still, the necessities of real politics have forced India to take counter-measures towards China’s grand connectivity strategy in the framework of BRI and the Maritime Silk Road. This article assumes that China’s grand connectivity strategy has not targeted India in particular, but unavoidably it has affected India’s strategic interests in the Indian Ocean and Eurasia. In a qualitative and case study methodology, this research explains China’s grand connectivity strategy and how it affects Indian strategic interests. It also elaborates on India’s counter-measures vis-à-vis China policy. It concluded that the Chinese connectivity strategy has affected Indian strategic interests in the Indian Ocean and Eurasia. Therefore, Chabahar, Gwadar ports, and Malacca Strait are centers of gravity in these great connectivity rivalries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Silk Road, Port, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China and India

2467. OVERLAPPING COMMUNICATION LOGIC FOR GLOBALIZING PUBLIC DIPLOMACY: THE CASE OF JORDAN

Author:: Emad Ayasreh
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper explored how Jordan used overlapping communication logic to enhance its global public diplomacy. Few studies have examined Jordan’s public diplomacy, so this research presents vital information about Jordan’s diplomacy nationally, regionally, and internationally. Because of the dynamic cultures, values, and norms brought about by globalization, nations need to use effective communication strategies to promote public diplomacy. In this case, the public referred to both the domestic and foreign public. The three main communication logics explored were individual, relational, and holistic logic. The research adopted a qualitative systematic literature review, and a sample of ten articles was obtained from Google Scholar and Z-Library. The study found that Jordan has used overlapping communication logic to enhance its public diplomacy domestically, in the Middle East, and globally on different occasions. The limitation of this research was its small sample size. Comprehensive quantitative analysis research is recommended to learn how satisfied Jordanians are with their country’s public diplomacy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Communications, and Public Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East and Jordan

2468. UNPACKING GENDER DYNAMICS IN ALBANIAN JOURNALISM: A POST-COMMUNIST PERSPECTIVE

Author:: Jonila Godole
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This study provides evidence of the challenges faced by women journalists in Albania after the fall of communism based on a nationwide survey of 295 journalists. Despite an increase in the number of women journalists, their emancipation in journalism is not necessarily implied. Women journalists tend to be confined to reporting on “soft news” sections or cultural and social topics, reinforcing traditional gender roles. Many women journalists conform to societal expectations and adopt gender stereotypes to exert influence while facing obstacles such as a male-dominated hierarchy, self-censorship, and pressures from family and editorial supervisors. Female journalists who make a name for themselves often cover male-dominated topics, following a masculine logic to gain respect and struggling to maintain their femininity. The study sheds light on the challenges and complexities women journalists face in Albania, providing insights into the gender dynamics within the media industry.
Topic:: Women, Journalism, Censorship, Gender, and Soft News
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Albania

2469. THE ROLE OF SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE PROCESS OF INFORMING THE PUBLIC ABOUT DISASTER RISKS

Author:: Vladimir M. Cvetkovic, Aleksandra Nikolic, and Aleksandar Ivanov
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Social media informs the public about the most important events and conveys important information. Before, during, and after disasters, social media are used to disseminate information about disasters and collect data relevant to the implementation of preparedness, response, and recovery activities and measures. Social networks are effective in disseminating information and warnings, as well as in educating the public. The subject of the research is examining the influence of demographic factors on the effectiveness of social media in informing the public about the risks of disasters. Using an online survey questionnaire and according to the snowball principle, a survey of 247 respondents was conducted in 2022. The research results show no statistically significant relationship between the respondents’ education level and the assessment of the effectiveness of social media reporting on disasters. Using social media can improve communication between stakeholders in disaster management and facilitate coordination of efforts, fostering communication and allocation of resources. To effectively use social media in disaster management, decision-makers in the disaster management system must be aware of new technologies, their disadvantages and advantages, and ways to collect and analyze data from social networks.
Topic:: Social Media, Risk, Disaster Management, Public Service, and Information
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Serbia

2470. THE IMPACT OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT ON ARMENIA'S FOREIGN TRADE: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

Author:: Diana Galoyan and Diana Matevosyan
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This article aimed to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Armenia’s foreign trade. The research problem was to analyze how the conflict influenced Armenia’s export and import patterns regarding geographical directions and product structure. The objectives were to examine the changes in trade turnover and identify shifts in geographical trade directions and trade structure. The study employed various statistical analysis tools, including dynamic series indicators, structural analysis, time series modeling, trend and moving average approximation, and extrapolation. Through these methods, the study evaluated the effects of the conflict on Armenia’s foreign trade. The key results indicated a positive impact of the conflict on trade turnover, with increased trade activity in various geographical directions. Export diversification was also observed as a result of the conflict. Notably, re-export played a significant role in the unprecedented growth of Armenia’s trade turnover during this period. In conclusion, the findings suggest that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict had a discernible influence on Armenia’s foreign trade, leading to changes in trade patterns and increased trade activity. The study highlights the importance of the re-exports role in analyzing trade dynamics.
Topic:: Economy, Exports, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Armenia

2471. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INNOVATION AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT OF EXPORTING COMPANIES

Author:: Arben Jusufi
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This research aimed to measure the impact of innovations (product innovation, technological innovation, marketing innovation, and process innovations) on the financial performance of exporting enterprises. It was based on return on assets (ROA), increase in return on sales, net profit, and increases in value per employee. The research was carried out based on primary data through the quantitative method. The study's participants were 150 Kosovo exporting companies selected randomly. Based on Pearson’s correlation analysis, it was found that there is a weak positive linear relationship between organizational innovations and product innovation, and financial performance. Additionally, a moderate positive linear relationship exists between marketing innovations, process innovations, and financial performance. Referring to the multiple linear regression, it was revealed that innovations explain 46.7% of financial performance. Process and marketing innovation had the greatest impact on financial performance, while organizational innovation had a lesser impact. The findings of this research contribute to improving the financial performance of exporting companies in Kosovo, focusing on the type of innovation that most influences performance.
Topic:: Finance, Business, Exports, Innovation, Production, and Marketing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2472. FACTORS AFFECTING CORRUPTION IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR: EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM

Author:: Hoa Nguyen Thu
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This research utilizes a structural equation modeling (SEM) technique to comprehensively examine the intricate interactions among various factors influencing corruption in Vietnam’s public sector. The findings reveal that certain factors, including inadequate anti-corruption policies and enforcement, a lack of accountability and transparency in anti-corruption endeavors, and significant income disparities between public officials and anti-corruption measures, significantly and positively impact the cultural and social norms associated with anti-corruption. Additionally, insufficient cultural and social standards exert a notable and positive influence on the level of corruption in the public sector. The outcomes of this study provide valuable insights for developing effective policies and strategies that promote accountability, transparency, and good governance to combat corruption in Vietnam’s public sector.
Topic:: Corruption, Accountability, Public Sector, Transparency, and Institutionalization
Political Geography:: Vietnam and Southeast Asia

2473. LOCAL SELF-GOVERNMENT, COMMUNITY, AND SOCIAL SERVICE DELIVERY IN KOSOVO

Author:: Ferdi Kamberi and Zeqir Hashani
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Community development is vital in networking and creating social capital. Local governments in Kosovo cooperate closely with their communities by offering public and social services, inclusivity, and social integration. This cooperation increases active citizenship, community development, social welfare, and local democracy. This paper aims to research and analyze the relationship between local governments and their communities, focusing on providing social services. The applied methodology included a quantitative survey of 300 respondents from three municipalities: Pristina, Fushe Kosove, and Obilic, targeting citizens aged 18 and above of both genders. The results show that local authorities in these municipalities offer community services and include their communities in policy-making and decision-making. While they also offer social services, community-based services should be restructured, and local authorities should pay more attention to empowering the community more comprehensively.
Topic:: Social Services, Community, Service Delivery, and Local Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

2474. THE IMPACT OF COLLECTIVE MEMORY ON THAILAND’S INVOLVEMENT IN THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

Author:: Sanyarat Meesuwan
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This study uses the theory of collective memory in international politics to examine the connection between collective memory and foreign policy to investigate why the Belt and Road Initiative has witnessed slow progress in Thailand. Qualitative data were gathered from various sources, including books, newspapers, journals, policy documents, and textbooks. The study concludes that cooperation between states is essential for achieving shared objectives but is contingent upon establishing mutual trust. Collective memories that one country maintains concerning another country can influence mutual understanding and trust, becoming ingrained even if the situation responsible for the memories changes or no longer exists. In the case of Thailand and China, the Thai government’s push for the high-speed rail project faced criticism and concerns due to the public’s deep-seated fears and distrust of China, the result of historical events and past experiences. This paper’s findings highlight the state’s role in creating collective memory and otherness, recognizing that external variables such as major power activities play a significant role.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Collective Memory
Political Geography:: China, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

2475. An Overview of the African Peacebuilding Network’s (APN’s) Contribution to African Peacebuilding Literature

Author:: Godwin Onuoha
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This working paper surveys, documents, and analyzes the contributions of APN scholars to the knowledge and practice of peacebuilding in Africa against the background of the 10th year anniversary of the APN program. It takes stock of the contributions and impact of the literature produced by APN scholars, particularly how these have brought different interdisciplinary perspectives and novel methodological approaches to bear on African peacebuilding. The paper systematically analyzes African perspectives on peacebuilding, debates between different schools of thought, provides an overview of different publications by APN scholars, and synthesizes the significance of these contributions to discourses on African and global literature on peacebuilding. As part of a broader intellectual project, the publications demonstrate how APN scholars have forged a nexus at which one can explore conflict, peacebuilding, media, gender, youth, boundaries and borderlands, land grabs, migration and refugees, faith-based initiatives, local/ communal cultures, identities, and COVID-19, among other topics. The publications under review transcend the narrow confines of the literature to engage in the complexities and multidimensional nature and contexts of African peacebuilding. In this regard, the publications mainstream African agency and views, particularly in the production of African knowledge in the field of peacebuilding.
Topic:: Conflict, Literature, Peacebuilding, and Transdisciplinarity
Political Geography:: Africa

2476. Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (PCVE) in West Africa: Lessons from Ghana

Author:: Titilope F. Ajayi
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This briefing note draws on discussions and recommendations from a policy dialogue co-organized in Accra by the West Africa Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP) and the African Peacebuilding Network (APN) on June 25 and 26, 2023. In the past decade, West Africa’s vulnerability to violent extremism and terrorism has intensified as attacks have spread across the region, exacerbating existing multi-layered crises, and raising critical questions about the effectiveness of existing responses. Recent extremist incursions into Coastal West Africa are of special concern. As the only coastal state that has not experienced extremist or terrorist violence, Ghana offers an interesting case study into strategies and frameworks for preventing and countering violent extremism (PCVE) in Africa.
Topic:: Security, Countering Violent Extremism, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Ghana

2477. Working Toward Peaceful Relations between Oromia and Somali Regional States, Ethiopia: Policy Options

Author:: Ketema Debela
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: In recent years, Ethiopia has increasingly faced violent conflicts which are intergovernmental, interparty, and interethnic in nature. In this regard, the conflict between Oromia and Somali regional states, which used to be local and confined to border areas prior to 2017, expanded its scale from local to the regional level, from clan to ethnic level. By drawing on research about intergovernmental conflict resolution and peacebuilding between Oromia and the Somali Regional State, this policy brief identifies the root causes of conflict along the borderlands between Oromo and Somali, examines the effectiveness of the measures taken to address the conflict, and recommends key areas for policy interventions to resolve the conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Armed Conflict, Dialogue, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Oromia, and Somali Regional State

2478. A New Horizon in U.S. Trade Policy: Key Developments and Questions for the Biden Administration

Author:: Trevor Sutton and Mike Williams
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: This issue brief examines some of the key trade initiatives pursued by the Biden administration to date. It then sets out key questions facing U.S. trade policy in a global environment defined by volatility and renewed ambition to tackle the great challenges of the 21st century, such as climate change, inequality, and great power competition.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Inequality, Economy, Trade Policy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and Americas

2479. U.S. Diplomacy Can Prevent Canadian Transboundary Mining Pollution on the Northern Border

Author:: Michael Freeman
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The Biden administration’s America the Beautiful initiative1 has recently bolstered conservation and economic activity in southeast Alaska.2 Yet only a few miles away, Canada is allowing dangerous gold mines in British Columbia to put Alaskans, Alaska Native communities, and the ecosystems they rely on at risk. The United States must exercise its rights under the 1909 Boundary Waters Treaty3 to address these mining and diplomatic malpractices. The United States’ ability to clean up mining activity at home and abroad will soon be put to the test as the world moves to secure new supplies of the critical minerals needed to build a clean energy economy. New mining developments are moving forward in the transboundary region of British Columbia along the Alaskan border without the consent of Tribes and Alaskan communities downstream. Despite U.S. complaints under the Boundary Waters Treaty, both the Canadian federal government and the provincial government of British Columbia are pushing ahead. Much of this new mining activity is focused within the watersheds of the Taku, Stikine, and Unuk-Nass rivers. These rivers flow from Canada’s boreal forest into Alaska’s Tongass National Forest, the site of one of President Joe Biden’s largest 4 conservation achievements5 and a bastion of ecosystem resilience for the state’s salmon fisheries.6 The dams used to capture and retain the toxic mine tailings—or waste—associated with gold-copper mining are prone to leakage and collapse, putting southeast Alaska communities, Tribes, and ecosystems at serious risk. Provincial mining activity in this region is recklessly underregulated, and efforts to introduce safeguards have faced diplomatic stonewalling from both the Canadian government and the provincial government of British Columbia. Low British Columbian bonding requirements, lax environmental protections, and no requirement to consult with the United States on new projects have attracted large gold mining operations to the region without consent or sufficient protections for downstream communities in Alaska. The International Joint Commission (IJC), a forum created to help the United States and Canada work out cross-border waterway issues and governed by the Boundary Waters Treaty,7 has been receiving increased attention as communities and Tribes call on both governments to find protective resolutions.8 The Biden administration should exercise its authority under the Boundary Waters Treaty—which Canada may already be violating by allowing British Columbian pollution to enter U.S. waters—to engage the government of Canada on these important transboundary environmental concerns: The United States should press Canada to join IJC proceedings to work out the mining pollution issues along the British Columbia-Alaska border. Through this process, the IJC should consider setting up watershed boards co-led by local Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities. Similarly, the IJC should follow Indigenous nations’ recommendation to pause all mine permitting in the transboundary British Columbia region until watershed protections are implemented. Both Canada and the United States should also strengthen bonding requirements for mine liabilities so communities are not left holding the bag for tailings dam breaches.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Mining, Renewable Energy, Pollution, and Public Lands
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

2480. Erdoğan’s Reelection Illustrates the Bleak Future of Turkish Democracy

Author:: Michael Werz
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Turkey saw unprecedented political mobilization, partly because going to the ballot box offered one of the last opportunities to make one’s voice heard. But little changed.
Topic:: National Security, Elections, Democracy, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

2481. Protecting Democracy Online in 2024 and Beyond

Author:: Megan Shahi
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: This new report specifically anticipates risks to and from the major social media platforms in the 2024 elections, continuing CAP’s work to promote election integrity online and ensure free and fair elections globally. The report’s recommendations incorporate learnings from past elections and introduce new ideas to encourage technology platforms to safeguard democratic processes and mitigate election threats. In a world without standardized global social media regulation, ensuring elections are safe, accessible, and protected online and offline will require key actions to be taken ahead of any votes being cast—both in 2024 and beyond.
Topic:: Politics, Science and Technology, Elections, Democracy, Social Media, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Europe, India, Global Focus, and United States of America

2482. Striking evidence: The impact of railway strikes on competition from intercity bus services in Germany

Author:: Matthias Beestermöller, Levke Jessen-Thiesen, and Alexander Sandkamp
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper investigates the impact of the largest rail strikes in German history on intercity buses – a then newly liberalised market. Using unique booking data of bus services, we exploit variation in rail service cancellations across routes to show that the disruption in rail transport increases bus ticket sales. Crucially, the effect persists beyond the strike, indicating that travellers do not return to their originally preferred mode of transport. It is particularly pronounced for passengers travelling on weekends. The findings suggest that customers were previously under-experimenting. Beyond transportation, our results highlight the importance of service reliability, as temporary disruptions can cause customers to permanently switch to competitors.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Business, Transportation, and Labor Strike
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

2483. Carbon Capture and Storage - Publics in five countries around the North Sea prefer to do it on their own territory

Author:: Christine Merk, Gisle Andersen, Åsta Dyrnes Nordø, and Torben Helfrich
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) has been identified as an essential part of the lowest-cost path toward reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement. In Europe, an accelerated pace of CCS development indicates that a CO2 transport and storage system could be established by 2030. However, we know little about how the public views the market for transport and storage of CO2 currently under development in Europe. In early 2023, we conducted an experimental comparative survey to study public opinions on cross-border CO2 trade for storage in Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and the UK. The share of respondents that perceive CCS as somewhat positive or very positive varies considerably between the countries; we find the highest share in Denmark (69%), followed by the UK (68%), Norway (67%), the Netherlands (57%) and the lowest share in Germany (49%). Especially concerns about environmental risks and costs lead to more negative views, while perceptions of job creation and economic opportunities lead to more positive evaluations. The experimental results show that importing CO2 for storage is among the least preferred options in all countries, while the storage of CO2 that has been captured in the own country is the most preferred option; the gap in the share of positive evaluations is substantial and amounts to up to 20 percentage points in the UK. Respondents who feel that countries are responsible for reducing national greenhouse gas emissions and storing their own captured CO2 drive the pattern of a more positive evaluation of a domestic CCS value chain and a more negative evaluation of importing CO2.
Topic:: Climate Change, Trade, Carbon Emissions, and Perception
Political Geography:: Europe and North Sea

2484. Spatial Wage Inequality in North America and Western Europe: Changes Between and Within Local Labour Markets 1975-2019

Author:: L. Baluz, P. Bukowski, M. Fransham, A. Lee, and M. López Forero
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: The rise of economic inequalities in advanced economies has been often linked with the growth of spatial inequalities within countries, yet there is limited comparative research that studies the relationship between national and subnational economic inequality. This paper presents the first systematic attempt to create internationally comparable evidence showing how different countries perform in terms of geographic wage inequalities. We create cross-country comparable measures of spatial wage disparities between and within similarly-defined local labour market areas (LLMAs) for Canada, France, (West) Germany, the UK and the US since the 1970s, and assess their contribution to national inequality. By the end of the 2010s, spatial inequalities in LLMA mean wages are similar in Canada, France, Germany and the UK; the US exhibits the highest degree of spatial inequality. Over the study period, spatial inequalities have nearly doubled in all countries, except for France where spatial inequalities have fallen back to 1970s levels. Due to a concomitant increase in within-place inequality, the contribution of places in explaining national wage inequality has remained fairly constant over the 40-year study period, except in the UK where we document a significant increase. Whilst common global social, economic and technological shocks are important drivers of spatial inequality, this variation in levels and trends of spatial inequality opens the way to comparative research exploring the role of national institutions in mediating how global shocks translate into economic disparities between places.
Topic:: Inequality, Labor Market, and Wages
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

2485. It’s not a Sprint, it’s a Marathon: Reviewing Governmental R&D Support for Environmental Innovation

Author:: Leonie Meißner, Sonja Peterson, and Finn Ole Semrau
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: In a race against excessive global warming, the world must accelerate the development and adoption of environmental innovations (EIs). EIs are crucial in decarbonizing the economy and meeting the net-zero targets. In this literature review, we delve into the role of governments in promoting EIs across stages of maturity and the likeliness of such support to reduce emissions and mitigation costs. Various theoretical justifications, such as knowledge externalities, dynamic increasing returns, path dependency and incomplete information, highlight the necessity to promote EI through governmental Research and Development (R&D) support. While emission pricing remains the most cost-efficient climate policy, it fails as a stand-alone instrument to sufficiently encourage EI. Accordingly, the optimal approach is a policy mix complementing emission pricing with governmental R&D support. The theoretical finding is backed by empirical studies on the development and deployment of renewable energies, which also show that investment in R&D can effectively reduce emissions and mitigation costs. By combining theoretical and empirical research, the review concludes by examining two pivotal policy actions aimed at accelerating the take-off of EIs: The US Inflation Reduction Act and the European Green New Deal Industrial Plan. We evaluate their specific aspects and limitations to effectively and efficiently contribute to decarbonization.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Innovation, and Research and Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2486. The Labor Market Effects of Disability Benefit Loss

Author:: Anikó Bíró, Cecília Hornok, Judit Krekó, Dániel Prinz, and Ágota Scharle
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Disability benefits are costly and tend to reduce labor supply. While spending can be contained by careful targeting, correcting past flaws in eligibility rules or assessment procedures may entail welfare costs. We study a major reform in Hungary that reassessed the health and working capacity of a large share of beneficiaries. Leveraging age and health cutoffs in the reassessment, we estimate employment responses to loss or reduction of benefits. We find that among those who left disability insurance due to the reform 58% were employed in the primary labor market, 6% participated in public works and 36% were out of work without benefits in the post-reform period. The consequences of leaving disability insurance sharply differed by pre-reform employment status. 81% of beneficiaries who had some employment in the pre-reform year worked, while only 33% of those without pre-reform employment did. The gains of the reform in activating beneficiaries were small and strongly driven by pre-reform employment status. This points to the importance of combining financial incentives with broader labor market programs that increase employability.
Topic:: Health, Employment, Economy, Disability, Fiscal Policy, Insurance, Labor Market, and Welfare State
Political Geography:: Europe and Hungary

2487. Time to say goodbye? The impact of environmental regulation on foreign divestment

Author:: Haiou Mao, Holger Görg, and Guopei Fang
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We look at divestments by foreign firms – a topic that has received comparatively little attention in the literature – and investigate how changes in the regulatory environment in the host country may impact on such divestment decisions. We use the implementation of China’s Two Control Zone (TCZ) policy as a “quasi-natural experiment”, using detailed firm level combined with city level data for the empirical analysis. Our results show that the implementation of TCZ policy has led to higher probabilities of divestments by foreign firms in targeted TCZ cities and industries. The mechanism behind this seems to be a TCZ-induced increase in discharge fees and efforts to reduce SO2 emissions. Allowing for heterogeneity of effects, we find that the effect is particularly strong for firms from source countries with less stringent environmental regulation, and those using less advanced technology. We furthermore show that firms using intermediates from polluting industries also experience a higher probability of divestment.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Foreign Direct Investment, Regulation, Business, and Divestment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2488. Regional Development and Internal Migration Aspects of Structural Transformation: A Case Study of Senegal

Author:: Askar Mukashov
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This study investigates regional development and internal migration dynamics within the context of modern structural transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa. We develop a regionalized Computable General Equilibrium model that incorporates regionalized production, endogenous interregional migration, and distinct migrant households. Using this model, we simulate the structural transformation of Senegal as a case study. Our findings demonstrate that agricultural stagnation, exacerbated by global climate change, underlies the economic underperformance of rural regions and amplifies regional income disparities. Furthermore, our analysis shows that outmigration from stagnating rural provinces to a more developed capital region positively influences overall economic growth and mitigates regional income inequality. Nevertheless, these effects are limited, and a proactive approach to addressing income inequality across the nation's regions would require supporting agriculture, as it represents a more equitable policy than promoting nonagricultural sectors in both rural and capital regions.
Topic:: Climate Change, Migration, Economic Growth, Labor Market, and Regional Development
Political Geography:: Africa

2489. Export impact on dividend policy for big Colombian exporting firms, 2006–2014

Author:: Federico Merchan
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper studies the impact of exogenous export demand shocks on firms’ dividend policy using firm specific real exchange rate variation as instrumental variable. IV exclusion restriction is plausibly satisfied because real exchange rate shocks were unanticipated -partly explained because of international oil price fluctuation-, and first stage results confirm relevance condition fulfillment. The results indicate that big private Colombian exporting firms decree dividends as a way to mitigate the agency cost generated by exogeneous exports variation via higher free cash flow and cash flow volatility, especially in poor managerial quality firms. Evidence supports agency cost theory and denies signaling.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Exports
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2490. China as an International Lender of Last Resort

Author:: Sebastian Horn, Bradley C. Parks, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper shows that China has launched a new global system for cross-border rescue lending to countries in debt distress. We build the first comprehensive dataset on China’s overseas bailouts between 2000 and 2021 and provide new insights into China’s growing role in the global financial system. A key finding is that the global swap line network put in place by the People’s Bank of China is increasingly used as a financial rescue mechanism, with more than USD 170 billion in liquidity support extended to crisis countries, including repeated rollovers of swaps coming due. The swaps bolster gross reserves and are mostly drawn by distressed countries with low liquidity ratios. In addition, we show that Chinese state-owned banks and enterprises have given out an additional USD 70 billion in rescue loans for balance of payments support. Taken together, China’s overseas bailouts correspond to more than 20 percent of total IMF lending over the past decade and bailout amounts are growing fast. However, China’s rescue loans differ from those of established international lenders of last resort in that they (i) are opaque, (ii) carry relatively high interest rates, and (iii) are almost exclusively targeted to debtors of China's Belt and Road Initiative. These findings have implications for the international financial and monetary architecture, which is becoming more multipolar, less institutionalized, and less transparent.
Topic:: Debt, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

2491. To Russia with Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Regime Support

Author:: Robert Gold, Julian Hinz, and Michele Valsecchi
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Do economic sanctions affect internal support of sanctioned countries’ governments? To answer this question, we focus on the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 and identify their effect on voting behavior in both presidential and parliamentary elections. On the economic side, the sanctions significantly hurt Russia’s foreign trade — with regional-level variation. We use trade losses caused by the sanctions as measure for regional sanction exposure. For identification, we rely on a structural gravity model that allows us to compare observed trade flows to counterfactual flows in the absence of sanctions. Difference-in-differences estimations reveal that regime support significantly increases in response to the sanctions, at the expense of voting support of Communist parties. For the average Russian district, sanction exposure increases the vote share gained by president Putin and his party by 13 percent. Event studies and placebo estimations confirm the validity of our results.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

2492. Exchange Rate Pass-Around

Author:: Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz, and Federico Trionfetti
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: In January 2015, The Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciated unexpectedly against the Euro by approximately 15%. We document a new fact: French firms that exported to both the Swiss market and the Eurozone also exhibited a sudden change in their export prices to the Eurozone. We coin this the “exchange rate pass-around” effect. We rationalise this fact with a simple model based on the endogenous decision of some firms to give up pricing-to-market and opt for single-pricing to all markets. An important implication of this finding is that single-pricing may be one of the causes of the incomplete pass-through. This mechanism has so far remained unexplored in the literature, which may have led to overestimating the importance of other factors. Based on monthly French export data, our empirical analysis confirms the existence of the pass-around. Firms directly affected by the CHF exchange rate shock increased their prices in neighboring markets by 0.8% compared to other exporters. The effect was stronger for firms with lower ex-ante price heterogeneity across markets and for firms with smaller trade costs to Switzerland. However, the effect was short-lived. As time passed, exporters tended to decouple the prices they set on the Swiss market from those for the Eurozone, and the pass-around effect faded.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, European Union, and Exchange Rate Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

2493. Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections

Author:: Matthieu Crozet and Julian Hinz
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Sanctions are meant to coerce political adversaries through economic measures. However, evidence for their effectiveness is scarce. In this paper we assess the impact of sanctions on a democracy — France — by studying the electoral consequences of the sanctions and countersanctions imposed between Russia and Western countries. Contrary to most of the existing literature we find clear evidence for exposure to the sanctions to cause an increase in the vote share for pro-Russian (and far-right) candidates during the French 2017 presidential election. Locally, the impact on voting is substantial. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that about 16,300 votes for the main far-right candidate can be directly attributed to the sanctions’ impact. This is the total number of votes cast in a medium-sized French city. It is however not nearly enough to have affected the outcome of the election at the national level.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, and Elections
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and France

2494. Who is to suffer? Quantifying the impact of sanctions on German firms

Author:: Holger Görg, Anna Jacobs, and Saskia Meuchelbock
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: In this paper, we use a novel firm level dataset for Germany to investigate the effect of sanctions on export behaviour and performance of German firms. More specifically, we study the sanctions imposed by the EU against Russia in 2014 in response to the annexation of Crimea and Russia's countermeasures. We find a substantial negative effect on both the extensive and intensive margin of German exports. While the negative effects are strongest for firms exporting products subject to trade restrictions, we provide further evidence on the indirect effects of sanctions. Analysing the impact on broader measures of firm performance, we document that the cost of sanctions is heterogeneous across firms but overall modest. Our results reveal that the negative impact of the shock was concentrated primarily among a small number of firms that were highly dependent on Russia as an export market and those directly affected by the sanctions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Russia-Ukraine War, and Firm Dynamics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Germany

2495. Potential efficiency gains from the introduction of an emissions trading system for the buildings and road transport sectors in the European Union

Author:: Wilfried Rickels, Christian Rischer, Felix Schenuit, and Sonja Peterson
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: In the European Union (EU), a second emissions trading system (EU ETS2) covering buildings, road transport and small energy and industrial installations is expected to be introduced from 2027. Until 2030, however, EU ETS2 will not be a separate pillar of EU climate policy, but will support Member States in meeting their national targets under the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR). If there are net regional shifts in emission reductions within the EU ETS2, for example, if companies in one member state buy in aggregated terms net allowances, this must be compensated for at the national level. We study the EU ETS2 for the year 2030 using the general equilibrium model DART. In our analysis, the introduction of an EU ETS2 generates about a quarter of the efficiency gains of a comprehensive emissions trading system, assuming that nation states use the flexibility mechanisms of the ESR and compensate for regional abatement leakage through interstate emissions trading. However, this is only true if there is no extensive price stabilization in the EU ETS2. Our analysis suggests an EU ETS2 allowance price of around EUR 300/tCO2. Stabilizing the EU ETS2 price at the envisaged intervention price of 45 EUR/tCO2 would require about 415 million additional allowances and thus imply additional emissions of the same amount in 2030 alone.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Economy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Europe

2496. Is the supermultiplier nil? - A Replication Study of Deleidi and Mazzucato (2021)

Author:: Jens Boysen-Hogrefe
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Analyzing US macro data via a structural vector-autoregressive model, Deleidi and Mazzucato (2021) find strong positive spillover of mission-oriented government spending on private research and development activity and on overall economic dynamism ("crowding in"). However the result hinges on specific transformation of the data. Deleidi and Mazzucato deflate all variables in their model via the GDP deflator. Applying originally price adjusted data a spillover on GDP cannot be found. Estimating the model with data starting in 1984, the results point at “crowding out” of private research and development activity.
Topic:: Economics, Fiscal Policy, Innovation, and Fiscal Multipliers
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

2497. The path of economics research production: Insights into the seesaw between theory and empirics

Author:: João Ricardo Faria, Rajeev K. Goel, and Neela D. Manage
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper provides insights into the apparent seesaw between the generation of theoretical versus empirical economics research over time. A dynamic model considers the incentives of researchers to focus on empirical versus theoretical papers. It yields the main characteristics of the path-changing of economics research, from theoretical-intensive to empirical-focused. The model has two equilibria, one with a higher proportion of theoretical papers and another with a higher proportion of empirical papers. Curiously, the equilibrium with greater theoretical papers is stable, while the one with more empirical papers is a saddle point. This suggests that the current trend of increasing empirical research is unlikely to last.
Topic:: Economics, Research, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

2498. Technology will save the climate! Attitudes towards Norway’s climate policy in four social groups

Author:: Åsta Dyrnes Nordø
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: The risk of opposition from the population increasingly plays a role in choosing the climate policy measures to achieve the objective to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In Norway, there is a long-standing cross-party consensus that the development of new technologies will be crucial for solving climate challenges. Comparing public opinion surveys, Norwegians are significantly more convinced that new technology will solve problems induced by climate change, compared people in other European countries. A concrete example of such a technology is carbon capture and storage (CCS). Despite discussions about the costs of establishing the technology, there is a cross-party consensus in Norway that CCS is a good and suitable measure for reaching climate policy goals. In this article, we review the historical background that has led to this broad support in Nor-way. Furthermore, we look at how this has been expressed in the political parties’ attitudes towards CCS. There has been a long standing consensus among all major parties that CCS should be developed and deployed. We argue that this lay the foundation for the societal support for CCS. We analyze data from the Norwegian Coordinated Online panels for research on DEMocracy and governance (KODEM) to examine the attitudes toward CCS among citizens and three functional elites, namely elected representatives, bureaucrats, and journalists. We find that CCS receives strong support in all four groups, but that citizens and elected representative are more skeptical compared to bureaucrats and journalists. However, when looking at the factors that influence the perception of CCS, the pattern is the same for all four groups. The more technology optimistic a person is, the more positively they tend to perceive CCS as a method to fight climate change. We also find that those who think the political efforts to reduce greenhouse gases are too great are less positive about CCS com-pared to those who think the efforts are appropriate or too small. Overall, the analysis indicates that all four societal groups are technology optimistic and characterized by the same attitudes toward climate change. We discuss the role of technology optimism in Norway’s climate policy and the reasons for the high degree of political consensus across groups with different societal functions.
Topic:: Climate Change, Science and Technology, Carbon Emissions, Elites, and Attitudes
Political Geography:: Europe and Norway

2499. The Ukraine Support Tracker: Which countries help Ukraine and how?

Author:: Christoph Trebesch, Ariana Antezza, Katelyn Bushnell, Andre Frank, and Pascal Frank
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper presents the Ukraine Support Tracker, which lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. Since the third update we track support by 41 countries, specifically the EU member states, other members of the G7, as well as Australia, South Korea, Turkey, Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, China, Taiwan, India and Iceland. The database is intended to support a facts-based discussion about support by other countries to Ukraine. Private donations and aid through non-governmental organizations are not included due to a lack of systematic data. To value in-kind support like military equipment or weapons, we rely on government statements as well as own calculations using market prices. We find significant differences in the scale of support across countries, both in absolute terms and as percent of donor country GDP.
Topic:: Economics, War, Foreign Aid, Military Aid, Geoeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, and United States of America

2500. Patterns of Global and Regional Value Chain Participation in the EAC

Author:: Sebastian Krantz
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Using global Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) data from 2005-2015, this paper empirically investigates the extent and patterns by which East African Community (EAC) countries have integrated into Global Value Chains (GVCs) and Regional Value Chains (RVCs). Results imply that the foreign content of exports (I2E) and the share of exports being re-exported (E2R) are stably between 10% and 20% in most EAC countries. Trade in intermediates with the rest of the world remains 12-14 times greater in value-added (VA) terms than the trade in intermediates inside the EAC. During 2005-2015, Kenya expanded its role as a regional supplier of manufactured inputs (higher E2R with EAC partners), and Uganda slightly increased its agricultural input to the Kenyan and Rwandan food processing sectors. Overall, however, a downstream shift is evident, by which more VA (both domestic and foreign) is used for the production of final goods while maintaining high levels of exports in primary agriculture and mining. This shift goes alongside a loss of comparative advantage in manufacturing in all EAC countries apart from Kenya. Econometric analysis suggests that higher I2E and E2R shares increase GDP with an average elasticity of ≥ 0.25 over 2 years. Estimates for manufacturing sectors were slightly higher at elasticities ≥ 0.3 in response to E2R shifts. These results imply that policy measures to increase manufacturing competitiveness and promote more horizontal RVCs would benefit EAC economic growth in the medium run.
Topic:: Globalization, Regional Integration, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:: Africa

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS