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202. U.S. Trade and Investment Policy
- Author:
- Matthew J. Slaughter, Edward Alden, Andrew H. Card, and Thomas A. Daschle
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The growth of global trade and investment has brought significant benefits to the United States and to the rest of the world. Freer trade and investment, facilitated by rules the United States led in negotiating and implementing, have alleviated poverty, raised average standards of living, and discouraged conflict.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
203. Partners in Preventive Action: The United States and International Institutions
- Author:
- Paul B. Stares and Micah Zenko
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- With the U.S. military overstretched after a decade of continuous combat operations and Washington facing acute fiscal pressures, the strategic logic of preventive action to reduce the number of foreign crises and conflicts that could embroil the United States in burdensome new commitments has never been more compelling.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Peace Studies, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Washington, and Southeast Asia
204. Managing Instability on China's Periphery
- Author:
- Daniel Markey, Paul B. Stares, Evan A. Feigenbaum, Scott A. Snyder, John W. Vessey, and Joshua Kurlantzick
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- If past experience is any guide, the United States and China will find themselves embroiled in a serious crisis at some point in the future. Such crises have occurred with some regularity in recent years, and often with little or no warning. Relatively recent examples include the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1996, the accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999, and the EP-3 reconnaissance plane incident in 2001, as well as several minor naval skirmishes since then. The ensuing tension has typically dissipated without major or lasting harm to U.S.-China relations. With China's rise as a global power, however, the next major crisis is likely to be freighted with greater significance for the relationship than in previous instances. Policymakers in both Washington and Beijing, not to mention their respective publics, have become more sensitive to each other's moves and intentions as the balance of power has shifted in recent years. As anxieties and uncertainties have grown, the level of mutual trust has inevitably diminished. How the two countries manage a future crisis or string of crises, therefore, could have profound and prolonged consequences for the U.S.-China relationship. Given the importance of this relationship to not only the future evolution of the Asia-Pacific region but also to the management of a host of international challenges, the stakes could not be higher.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, and Asia
205. US Tax Discrimination Against Large Corporations Should Be Discarded
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Martin Vieiro
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The United States holds contradictory views about large corporations. When Americans speak of breakthroughs in research and engineering, they are justly proud of large firms that pioneered railroads and steam engines in the 19th century, automobiles, electric power, and oil exploration in the 20th century, and computers, software, and biotechnology in the 21st century. Yet when talk turns to paying taxes, public opinion holds that large corporations should pay a higher statutory tax rate than other business firms, and enjoy fewer deductions in computing their taxable income. Despite common sense and the teachings of economics, tax discrimination is alive and well.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
206. The G20: Engine of Asian Regionalism?
- Author:
- Hugo Dobson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- As a result of the emergence of the G20 as the self‐appointed “premier forum for international economic cooperation”, Asia's expanded participation in G‐summitry has attracted considerable attention. As original G7 member Japan is joined by Australia, China, Indonesia, India and South Korea, this has given rise to another alphanumeric configuration of the Asian 6 (A6). Resulting expectations are that membership in the G20 will impact Asian regionalism as the A6 are forced into coordination and cooperation in response to the G20's agenda and commitments. However, by highlighting the concrete behaviours and motivations of the individual A6 in the G20 summits so far, this paper stands in contrast to the majority of the predominantly normative extant literature. It highlights divergent agendas amongst the A6 as regards the future of the G20 and discusses the high degree of competition over their identities and roles therein. This divergence and competition can be seen across a range of other behaviours including responding to the norm of internationalism in promoting global governance and maintaining the status quo and national interest, in addition to claiming a regional leadership role and managing bilateral relationships with the US.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, India, Asia, South Korea, and Australia
207. What Can and Cannot Be Done about Rating Agencies
- Author:
- Nicolas Véron
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) are prominent participants in the assessment of credit risk by financial markets. They determine and publish credit ratings, which represent the CRA's opinions on issuers' relative probability of default. The market for credit ratings is currently dominated in most western countries by three players: n Standard Poor's (S) is a division of the McGraw- Hill Companies, a US-based media group whose ownership is dispersed (the largest shareholder is Capital Group, with 12 percent of shares); n Moody's Corporation is an autonomous US-based listed company with dispersed ownership (the largest shareholder is Berkshire Hathaway, with 12.5 percent of shares); n Fitch Ratings is a division of the Fitch Group which is jointly owned by Fimalac, a Paris-based listed investment vehicle (60 percent of shares), and the US-based Hearst Corporation (40 percent of shares).
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States
208. The United States Should Establish Permanent Normal Trade Relations with Russia
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Anders Åslund
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- After 18 years, Russia is finally on the verge of acceding to the World Trade Organization (WTO). No country has struggled for so long to become a member of this important organization. The last impediment was removed on November 9, when Russia and Georgia concluded an agreement on monitoring trade flows across their disputed border. The WTO Working Party, which oversaw the negotiations, then approved Russian accession on November 10, clearing the way for formal membership to be adopted at the WTO ministerial conference to be held December 15–17, 2011 (WTO 2011).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Georgia
209. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment
- Author:
- Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer, and Fan Zhai
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Two emerging tracks of trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific—one based on the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and an Asian track—could consolidate the “noodle bowl” of current smaller agreements and provide pathways to a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We examine the benefits and strategic incentives generated by these tracks over 2010-2025. The effects on the world economy would be small initially but by 2025 the annual welfare gains would rise to $104 billion on the TPP track, $303 billion on both tracks, and $862 billion with an FTAAP. The tracks will be competitive but their strategic implications are constructive: each would generate incentives for enlargement. Over time, strong economic incentives would emerge for the United States and China to consolidate the tracks into a region-wide agreement. Each track would bring a different template to such consolidation and can be viewed as defining a “disagreement point” in the Asia-Pacific bargaining game. The study is based on an analysis of 48 actual and proposed Asia-Pacific trade agreements and models impacts on variables including sectoral trade, output, employment and job shifts in 24 world regions.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific
210. A Pragmatic Ideal for Global Economic Governance Reform
- Author:
- Barry Herman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This paper asks how the world of sovereign countries should arrange itself to address global and international economic, financial, social or environmental problems. The current system of institutions and arrangements, informally led by the Group of 20, as convoked by the United States, is hardly ideal. The paper proposes a “pragmatic” alternative with multiple checks and balances, but able to reach timely and effective decisions on the full range of international policy issues. The paper concludes noting that dissatisfaction with current arrangements has reopened intergovernmental debate; it is not the same as undertaking reform, but it is a start.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
211. Saudi Arabia in the New Middle East
- Author:
- F. Gregory Gause III
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- There is arguably no more unlikely U.S. ally than Saudi Arabia: monarchical, deeply conservative socially, promoter of an austere and intolerant version of Islam, birthplace of Osama bin Laden and fifteen of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers. Consequently, there is no U.S. ally less well understood. Many U.S. policymakers assume that the Saudi regime is fragile, despite its remarkable record of domestic stability in the turbulent Middle East. “It is an unstable country in an unstable region,” one congressional staffer said in July 2011. Yet it is the Arab country least affected in its domestic politics by the Arab upheavals of 2011. Many who think it is unstable domestically also paradoxically attribute enormous power to it, to the extent that they depict it as leading a “counterrevolution” against those upheavals throughout the region. 2 One wonders just how “counterrevolutionary” the Saudis are when they have supported the NATO campaign against Muammar al-Qaddafi, successfully negotiated the transfer of power from Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, and condemned the crackdown on protestors by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, and how powerful they are when they could do little to help their ally Hosni Mubarak in Egypt.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Islam, Oil, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia
212. Multilateralism in Trade at Risk: Should and Can we Rescue the Doha Round?
- Author:
- Jagdish Bhagwati, Pascal Lamy, Michael Moore, and Leif Pagrotsky
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Columbia University World Leaders Forum
- Abstract:
- This World Leaders Forum program will feature an introduction by: - Pascal Lamy, Director-General of the World Trade Organization Followed by a panel discussion with: - Jagdish Bhagwati, University Professor of Economics Law, Columbia University; Economic Policy Adviser to Director General of GATT (1991-1993) - Michael Moore, Former Director General of World Trade Organization and Prime Minister of New Zealand; Ambassador of New Zealand to the United States - Leif Pagrotsky, Swedish Minister for Trade(1997-2004); currently member of the Swedish Parliament and of the Executive Board of the Social Democratic Party.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and New Zealand
213. Investment incentives and the global competition for capital
- Author:
- Kenneth P. Thomas
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Investment incentives (subsidies designed to affect the location of investment) are a pervasive feature of global competition for foreign direct investment (FDI). They are used by the vast majority of countries, at multiple levels of government, in a broad range of industries. They take a variety of forms, including tax holidays, grants and free land. Politicians, at least in the United States, may have good electoral incentives to use them.
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
214. President Obama's International Tax Proposals Could Go Further
- Author:
- Reuven S. Avi-Yonah
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- The Obama Administration's 2011 budget proposals include revenues of $122 billion over ten years from “international tax reform.” This set of proposals is similar to but narrower than the ones advanced by the Administration in May 2009, which would have raised $210 billion.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
215. U.S.-Mexico Homeland Defense: A Compatible Interface
- Author:
- Victor E. Renuart, Jr. and Biff Baker
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The United States and Mexico share a common history shaped by military incursions during the 19th and early 20th centuries. The bond between the American and Mexican people, however, has continued to grow closer over time despite occasional negative rhetoric from politicians in Washington, DC, and Mexico City. At local and state levels, relations solidified through the closely knit fabric of our border towns, intermarriage between families on each side of the border, and the development of infrastructure (to include water, wastewater, and gas and electricity utilities) that serves communities to the north and south. At the national level, our relationship became closer due to economic growth resulting from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which now accounts for almost $1 billion (U.S. dollars) in trade per day between the two countries.
- Topic:
- Security, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Washington, Latin America, North America, and Mexico
216. Capital flows, the carry trade and 'sand in the wheels'
- Author:
- Stephen Grenville
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The 'carry trade', in which capital shifts from countries with low interest rates to countries with significantly higher rates, has become an important element of international capital flows over the past decade. With low interest rates in the United States, Japan, the UK and much of the rest of Europe expected to persist for some time, these flows seem likely to become larger in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Particularly for the emerging countries with shallow financial markets, interest-sensitive inflows have the potential to be disruptive. Exchange rates will tend to be overvalued for sustained periods, punctuated by sharp depreciations. These distorted and varying price signals will be unhelpful for good policy-making and steady economic growth.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, United Kingdom, and Europe
217. The Substitution Account as a First Step Toward Reform of the International Monetary System
- Author:
- Peter B. Kenen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Today, the international monetary system is based largely on the US dollar, but reserve currency diversification has begun, thanks to the advent of the euro, and it is apt to continue. Eventually, the renminbi could acquire reserve currency status, and the resulting reserve currency diversification could be more disruptive than it has been to date. To forestall that possibility the quasi-currency issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), could be made to play a larger role in the international monetary system, precluding potentially disruptive diversification and achieving more orderly growth in the stock of international reserves.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
218. The Transatlantic Economy 2010 Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Europe
- Author:
- Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Center for Transatlantic Relations
- Abstract:
- Despite the recession, the United States and Europe remain each other's most important foreign commercial markets. No other commercial artery in the world is as integrated and fused as the transatlantic economy. We estimate that the transatlantic economy continues to generate close to $4.28 trillion in total commercial sales a year and employs up to 14 million workers in mutually “onshored” jobs on both sides of the Atlantic.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
219. Wholesalers and Retailers in US Trade
- Author:
- J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, Peter K. Schott, and Stephen J. Redding
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- International trade models typically assume that producers in one country trade directly with final consumers in another. In reality, of course, trade can involve long chains of potentially independent actors who move goods through wholesale and retail distribution networks. These networks likely affect the magnitude and nature of trade frictions and hence both the pattern of trade and its welfare gains. To promote further understanding of the means by which goods move across borders, this paper examines the extent to which US exports and imports flow through wholesalers and retailers versus producing and consuming firms.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States
220. Do Developed and Developing Countries Compete Head to Head in High Tech?
- Author:
- Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Concerns that growth in developing countries could worsen the US terms of trade and that increased US trade with developing countries will increase US wage inequality both implicitly reflect the assumption that goods produced in the United States and developing countries are close substitutes and that specialization is incomplete. In this paper we show on the contrary that there are distinctive patterns of international specialization and that developed and developing countries export fundamentally different products, especially those classified as high tech. Judged by export shares, the United States and developing countries specialize in quite different product categories that, for the most part, do not overlap. Moreover, even when exports are classified in the same category, there are large and systematic differences in unit values that suggest the products made by developed and developing countries are not very close substitutes—developed country products are far more sophisticated.
- Topic:
- Development, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States
221. The Margins of US Trade
- Author:
- J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, Peter K. Schott, and Stephen J. Redding
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Recent research in international trade emphasizes the importance of firms' extensive margins for understanding overall patterns of trade as well as how firms respond to specific events such as trade liberalization. In this paper, we use detailed US trade statistics to provide a broad overview of how the margins of trade contribute to variation in US imports and exports across trading partners, types of trade (i.e., arm's length versus related party) and both short and long time horizons. Among other results, we highlight the differential behavior of related-party and arm's-length trade in response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States
222. Intra-Firm Trade and Product Contractibility
- Author:
- J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, Peter K. Schott, and Stephen J. Redding
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the determinants of intra-firm trade in US imports using detailed country-product data. We create a new measure of product contractibility based on the degree of intermediation in international trade for the product. We find important roles for the interaction of country and product characteristics in determining intra-firm trade shares. Intra-firm trade is high for products with low levels of contractibility sourced from countries with weak governance, for skill-intensive products from skill-scarce countries, and for capital-intensive products from capital-abundant countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States
223. Revisiting the NAFTA Agenda on Climate Change
- Author:
- Jeffrey J. Schott and Meera Fickling
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- A year ago, we wrote a policy brief titled Setting the NAFTA Agenda on Climate Change, which explored issues of energy and environmental cooperation among the three North American countries in light of the climate legislation that had recently passed the US House of Representatives. Similar legislation did not pass the Senate, and Congressional leaders are now considering much more modest measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reforming US energy policy.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States and North America
224. Deepening China-Taiwan Relations through the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement
- Author:
- Daniel H. Rosen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- On Sunday, June 13, 2010 representatives from China and Taiwan held a third round of talks in Beijing on an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) that would liberalize important aspects of cross-Strait economic relations. Details of what was agreed and what remains under negotiation are still trickling out, and in any case the nature of this framework is that various elements will be agreed upon on an ongoing basis rather than at once. But it is clear from available details that ECFA will be an ambitious accord that fundamentally changes the game between Taiwan and China and hence affects the regional economy and even the transpacific tempo for the United States.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Taiwan
225. Hobbling Exports and Destroying Jobs
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Theodore H. Moran
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The US House of Representatives has just passed the American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Act (HR 4213). This bill will hurt American workers, reduce American exports, and make American companies less competitive in the international marketplace. Since the US Senate has already passed companion legislation, the American Workers, State, and Business Relief Act (S 3336), these ill-considered bills could soon be reconciled in conference and become the law of the land. If so, American firms and workers will pay the price.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
226. A Trade Agenda for the G-20
- Author:
- Jeffrey J. Schott
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- For the past 18 months, the G-20 summit countries have worked together to contain the global economic crisis and encourage a sustainable economic recovery. As part of these efforts, the G-20 leaders have sought to constrain the protectionist pressures that invariably arise during times of economic stress and to maintain an open international trading regime. The G-20 trade agenda, as enunciated in the three summit declarations, has covered two specific trade actions: a “standstill” on new protectionism and a charge to complete the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations.
- Topic:
- Development, Human Rights, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Washington
227. Higher Taxes on Multinationals Would Hurt US Workers and Exports
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Theodore H. Moran
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- As presidential candidate, Barack Obama repeatedly advocated tax “reforms” aimed squarely at US-based multinational enterprises (MNEs). As president, he again declared—in the same State of the Union address that laid out an ambitious goal for export expansion—that “it is time to finally slash the tax breaks for companies that ship our jobs overseas, and give those tax breaks to companies that create jobs right here in the United States of America."
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
228. Innovation and the Visible Hand: China, Indigenous Innovation, and the Role of Government Procurement
- Author:
- Nathaniel Ahrens
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Indigenous innovation has become the greatest immediate source of economic friction between the United States and China. This trend is not unique to these two countries; policy makers globally are actively trying to stimulate domestic innovation. The burgeoning markets for biotech and environment-related products and services and, potentially even more important, countries' efforts to emerge from the global economic slowdown all reinforce this trend. Mindful of this global scene, China has made indigenous innovation one of the core elements of its attempt to make a structural shift up the industrial value chain.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
229. The Transatlantic Economy 2010: Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Europe
- Author:
- Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Transatlantic Relations
- Abstract:
- Despite the recession, the United States and Europe remain each other's most important foreign commercial markets. No other commercial artery in the world is as integrated and fused as the transatlantic economy. We estimate that the transatlantic economy continues to generate close to $4.28 trillion in total commercial sales a year and employs up to 14 million workers in mutually “onshored” jobs on both sides of the Atlantic.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
230. Foreign direct investment and U.S. national security: CFIUS under the Obama Administration
- Author:
- Mark E. Plotkin and David N. Fagan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- There was considerable public scrutiny of the Obama Administration's performance in its inaugural year, but comparatively little focus on one of the Administration's key processes governing the flow of investment into the United States — namely, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Yet, this is a frequent question we receive from foreign investors -- has the change in the administration affected CFIUS?
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
231. Dilemmas of Brazilian Grand Strategy
- Author:
- Hal Brands
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- This monograph analyzes Brazilian grand strategy under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. During Lula's nearly 8 years in office, he has pursued a multipronged grand strategy aimed at hastening the transition from unipolarity and Western economic hegemony to a multipolar order in which international rules, norms, and institutions are more favorable to Brazilian interests. Lula has done so by emphasizing three diplomatic strategies: soft balancing against the United States, building coalitions to magnify Brazilian negotiating power, and seeking to position Brazil as the leader of a more united South America.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Brazil, South America, and Latin America
232. Prospects for Implementing the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement
- Author:
- Jeffrey J. Schott
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) was signed on June 30, 2007. Since then, the Korean National Assembly has vetted the agreement and the pact cleared a major legislative hurdle when the Foreign Affairs and Trade Committee approved it in April 2009; the full assembly has deferred final passage pending comparable action by the US Congress. In the United States, the ratification process has not yet begun; neither President George W. Bush nor President Barack Obama has submitted implementing legislation to Congress.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Law
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, Asia, and Korea
233. How much do U.S. corporations know (and care) about bilateral investment treaties? Some hints from new survey evidence
- Author:
- Jason Webb Yackee
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- A remarkable number of countries have recently entered into bilateral investment treaties (BITs) as a means of protecting and promoting inward foreign direct investment (FDI). But do the treaties “work?” In exchange for giving up some mea sure of regulatory autonomy, host countries hope to receive increased flows of investment. Scholars have devoted substantial energy to examining whether this so-called “grand bargain” has in fact been realized. Most studies follow a common research design. The number of BITs that a state has signed are counted up, with the resulting independent variable regressed against country-level FDI flow data. Unfortunately, the results of these various and increasingly complex statistical exercises are inconsistent. 1 Some studies show that BITs can have massive positive impacts on foreign investment; others show modest positive impacts; others show no impact at all, or even a negative impact.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States
234. Does Profit-Seeking Rule Out Love? Evidence (or Not) from Economics and Law
- Author:
- Julie A. Nelson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Many believe that firms are driven to maximize profits, and therefore are not allowed to take actions that would benefit their workers, communities, or the environment if these actions would reduce profits even slightly. This essay shows that this belief is supported neither by sound economic evidence and arguments, nor by United States statutory and case law. The roots of this belief are, instead, to be found in a centuries-old desire of economists to make our discipline look like Newtonian physics. Among scholars of law, both misinformation and the use of University of Chicago-style economics have contributed to the belief's popularity. Among scholars and the public alike, the dualistic "love or money" view is appealing because of its simplicity and congruence with cultural gender norms. Reexamining the evidence, rather than adhering to common ideologies, this essay offers an unconventional analysis of corporate behavior and commodification.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Law
- Political Geography:
- United States and Chicago
235. Trade Disputes Between China and the United States: Growing Pains so Far, Worse Ahead?
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jared C. Woollacott
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This study covers the history of Sino-US trade relations with a particular focus on the past decade, during which time each has been a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Providing a brief history of 19th and 20th century economic relations, this paper examines in detail the trade disputes that have arisen between China and the United States over the past decade, giving dollar estimates for the trade flows at issue. Each country has partaken in their share of protectionist measures, however, US measures have been characteristically defensive, protecting declining industries, while Chinese measures have been characteristically offensive, promoting nascent industries. We also cover administrative and legislation actions within each country that have yet to be the subject of formal complaint at the WTO. This includes an original and comprehensive quantitative summary of US Section 337 intellectual property rights cases. While we view the frictions in Sino-US trade a logical consequence of the rapid increase in flows between the two countries, we caution that each country work within the WTO framework and respect any adverse decisions it delivers so that a protracted protectionist conflict does not emerge. We see the current currency battle as one potential catalyst for such conflict if US and Chinese policymakers fail to manage it judiciously.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
236. State-controlled entities as claimants in international investment arbitration: an early assessment
- Author:
- Michael D. Nolan and Frédéric Sourgens
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- State-controlled entities (SCEs) are increasingly important participants in international investment flows and international trade. Cumulative FDI by sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) has reportedly reached US$100 billion. SWFs are significant equity investors in, and provide significant debt financing to, every kind of company, from professional sports franchises to container ports. In addition to the role of these funds, national oil companies are growing in regional and international importance. In many countries, other industries are also increasingly government-owned.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States
237. Status, Identity, and Rising Powers
- Author:
- Deborah Welch Larson and Alexei Shevchenko
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
- Abstract:
- In the current era, the most striking development is the appearance of rising powers. These include Brazil, Russia, India, and China but also South Africa, Mexico, and South Korea. No longer can a small group of advanced states, the Group of Seven (G-7), manage the world economy. The G-7 has for all practical purposes been replaced by the G-20, which includes China, India, South Korea, Indonesia, and Australia. The emerging powers in Asia account for a growing share of the world's global domestic product. These powers are spending more on their military—India already has an aircraft carrier and plans to procure two more. China's growing navy is a major concern to the United States military.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, India, South Korea, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico
238. KORUS FTA 2.0: Assessing the Changes
- Author:
- Jeffrey J. Schott
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- On December 3, 2010, the United States and South Korea agreed to incremental changes to the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) that was signed in June 2007 but not ratified by the US Congress or the Korean National Assembly. Most of the changes affect bilateral trade in autos and light trucks; other minor changes involve pharmaceutical patents, US pork exports, and US visas.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States and South Korea
239. Regional Trade Blocs: The Way to the Future?
- Author:
- Alejandro Foxley
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- While middle-income countries have pursued regional trade agreements since the 1960s, these ties are becoming more important as the global economic crisis curtails demand from the United States and other major markets. With the Doha Round of multilateral trade talks stalled, regional trade agreements (RTAs) offer an alternative approach to increase trade, spur stronger economic growth, and lower unemployment rates in participating countries.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, and Latin America
240. US-Vietnam: New Strategic Partners Begin Tough Trade Talks
- Author:
- Raymond Burghardt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Vietnamese and Americans joined together in Hanoi last December for a happy celebration, commemorating the tenth anniversary of the entrance into force of the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement signed in December, 2001. The gathering of current and former trade negotiators, diplomats, and business leaders exchanged witty anecdotes about who had been the toughest negotiator. However, the main focus for both American and Vietnamese participants was on the positive prospects for future US-Vietnam relations across the spectrum of trade and strategic common interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cold War, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia
241. Can the U.S. Remain an Attractive Host for FDI in the Auto Industry? New Labor Policy and Flexible Production
- Author:
- Terutomo Ozawa
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- President Obama has been supporting a new bill, the Employee Free Choice Act, designed to promote the labor unions' drive for unionization. This bill, if enacted, will surely be a big boon for unions as it helps enlarge their membership, enhance their bargaining power vis-à-vis businesses, and enrich their coffers to wield political clout. An important issue here, however, is how such reinforced unionism contributes to the U.S.'s much needed industrial competitiveness and employment—and, more specifically, how this new policy will affect the U.S. as a host to FDI in the auto industry.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States
242. International Investment Arbitration: Winning, Losing and Why
- Author:
- Susan D. Franck
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- We know several things about foreign investment. First, foreign investment matters, reaching US$1.7 trillion in 2008. Second, we know that foreign investors have new international law rights to protect their economic interests. Third, we know that those rights are now being used.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States
243. The global financial crisis: will state emergency measures trigger international investment disputes?
- Author:
- Anne Van Aaken and Jürgen Kurtz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Several developed countries have introduced emergency measures to mitigate the effects of the Global Financial Crisis, including Australia, Germany, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Although the measures taken are still undergoing changes by the executive branch and are thus a “moving target”, our survey reveals early evidence of differentiation between foreign and domestic actors in the emergency plans adopted by this sample grouping. It is this differentiation that may give rise to liability as breaching guarantees against discrimination of foreign investors under international investment law.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, International Affairs, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, and Ireland
244. The United States and the Asia-Pacific Region: National Interests and Strategic Imperatives
- Author:
- James J. Przystup
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- From its earliest days, the United States has been engaged in trade with East Asia. In February 1784, the Empress of China left New York harbor, sailing east to China, arriving at Macau on the China coast in August of that year. The ship returned to the United States the following May with a consignment of Chinese goods, which generated a profit of $30,000. In 1844, China granted the United States trading rights in the Treaty of Wanghia.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
245. Pacific Asia and the Asia Pacific: The Choices for APEC
- Author:
- C. Fred Bergsten
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum comprises 21 developed and developing economies that surround the Pacific Rim. The organization was created in 1989 and holds annual Leaders' Meetings that bring together its heads of government. In this policy brief, I assess the record of the APEC over the 20 years of its existence and discuss the world environment in which APEC is likely to be operating in the next 20 years, with a particular focus on the major change in global institutional arrangements implied by the replacement of the Group of Seven/Eight (G-7/8) by the Group of Twenty (G-20) as the chief steering committee for the world economy and, within that group and other international economic organizations, the increasingly central role of an informal and de facto Group of Two (G-2) between China and the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
246. Understanding Special Drawing Rights
- Author:
- John Williamson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- A once-familiar but long-neglected acronym has reappeared in newspapers in recent weeks. We have read that the G-20 meeting in London endorsed a proposal that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should create $250 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). We have been told that one problem with this proposal is that most of the SDR allocation would accrue to countries that are unlikely to use them, and some readers may have seen proposed ways around this difficulty. We have read that the governor of the People's Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, has proposed that the SDR should gradually displace the dollar at the center of the international monetary system and that surplus countries should be able to convert their dollar holdings into SDR-denominated assets. No one can doubt that the SDR is back.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
247. Improving U.S.-China Relations: The Next Steps
- Author:
- Richard N. Rosecrance
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- A higher Renminbi will have two advantages: for the United States, it will help to equilibrate the past trade imbalance; for China, it will stimulate consumption (and enhance imports). It will therefore help China switch from a purely exporting strategy to one that maintains domestic growth through internal consumption. The goods that were to be sent abroad can now be consumed by an increasingly middle class nation at home. These steps will bring China and the United States closer economically and increase international stability. However, unless the military-security relations of the two countries improve, this will not be a sufficient remedy for the two nations' long term problems.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Germany
248. How Do We Know This is Not Another Great Depression? Lessons for Policymakers from the 1930s
- Author:
- Jeffrey Frankel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The current economic crisis is fundamentally different from those we have experienced in recent past. The proximate causes of previous recessions (1980-2 and 1990-91) were increases in interest rates in response to inflation. This time around, however, low interest rates and loose monetary policy during the period 2003-2005 had contributed to a bubble in asset prices, rather than to inflation. This-coupled with an underestimation of risk in our financial system, failures of corporate governance, and excessive debt by both households and government-caused the crisis of 2007-09.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Germany
249. Criss-Crossing Globalization: Uphill Flows of Skill-Intensive Goods and Foreign Direct Investment
- Author:
- Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This paper documents an unusual and possibly significant phenomenon: the export of skills, embodied in goods, services or capital from poorer to richer countries. We first present a set of stylized facts. Using a measure which combines the sophistication of a country's exports with the average income level of destination countries, we show that the performance of a number of developing countries, notably China, Mexico and South Africa, matches that of much more advanced countries, such as Japan, Spain and USA. Creating a new combined dataset on FDI (covering greenfield investment as well as mergers and acquisitions) we show that flows of FDI to OECD countries from developing countries like Brazil, India, Malaysia and South Africa as a share of their GDP, are as large as flows from countries like Japan, Korea and the US. Then, taking the work of Hausmann et al (2007) as a point of departure, we suggest that it is not just the composition of exports but their destination that matters. In both cross-sectional and panel regressions, with a range of controls, we find that a measure of uphill flows of sophisticated goods is significantly associated with better growth performance. These results suggest the need for a deeper analysis of whether development benefits might derive not from deifying comparative advantage but from defying it.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Malaysia, India, South Africa, Brazil, Spain, and Korea
250. Global Outlook 2010: What lies ahead for the global economy
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- Leo Abruzzese, Editorial Director for North America, discusses the latest EIU forecast for the world. Forward-looking economic indicators have continued to improve in many countries in recent months, suggesting that the worst of the contraction in global GDP is over. The improvement has triggered hopes of an imminent and sustained global economic recovery. But does this signal the start of a genuine strong recovery, or is it a false dawn, to be followed by months—or even years—of anemic growth? What is the outlook for the US, Canada, and Asia, as well as the major emerging markets, over the next couple of years? And what are the downside risks to this outlook?
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, Asia, and North America