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1. Compounding Uncertainty in Afghanistan: Economic Consequences of Delay in Signing the Bilateral Security Agreement

Author:
Casey Garret Johnson, William A. Byrd, and Sanaullah Tasal
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The still unsigned Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Afghanistan and the United States provides the legal basis for continuing U.S. military presence in Afghanistan. In addition to its substantive importance, the BSA is also a confidence-building mechanism. The delay in putting it in place is compounding uncertainty and further diminishing economic confidence during Afghanistan's already challenging and uncertain transition. Afghans' responses include, among others, hedging behavior (legal and illegal), personal decisions on whether to come back to or stay in Afghanistan, delays in investments, incipient job losses, declining demand for goods and services and real estate prices, and farmers planting more opium poppy.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Treaties and Agreements, Insurgency, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

2. PakVotes: A Social Media Experiment in Elections Monitoring

Author:
Nadia Naviwala
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
PakVotes, a pilot project supported by the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), used social media platforms and a network of reporters located in areas outside of major cities in Pakistan to track violence during the 2013 elections. The project offers lessons that could guide future efforts to use social media to record and publicize conflicts and the use of violence during elections and other major events. The hashtag #PakVotes trended for several days around elections, serving as a popular alternative news source to the mainstream media, which was not as diverse in its geographic coverage, sources or story types.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Non-Governmental Organization, Science and Technology, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and South Asia

3. Dilemmas of Campaigning and Governing in the United States: A Conversation with Governor Lincoln D. Chafee

Author:
Lincoln Chafee
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program titled, Dilemmas of Campaigning and Governing in the United States: A Conversation with Governor Lincoln D. Chafee, will feature a discussion with Lincoln D. Chafee, Governor of Rhode Island and the following participants: Introduction:David Johnston, Professor of Political Science, Columbia University in the City of New York Interlocutor:Ester Fuchs, Professor of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University in the City of New York.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and New York

4. Democratic Aspirations and Destabilizing Outcomes in Afghanistan

Author:
Norah Niland
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
The United States and its allies, in control of Afghanistan since October 2001, failed to support the development of an inclusive, legitimate and accountable political system. This paper examines how the imposition of an inappropriate model of democracy, the prioritization of American interests over those of Afghans, and a pattern of expedient political decisions have contributed to the destabilization of the country. The democracy and state-building model imposed on Afghanistan was stymied from the outset by critical foundational flaws. These include the return to power of discredited warlords reviled by most Afghans, the marginalization of particular groups including the remnants of the Taliban movement, and the concentration of power in an executive Presidency at the expense of a weak parliamentary structure. In 2014, along with the drawdown of US and NATO troops, Afghanistan's disputed election saga ended in a no-victor deal that effectively discarded the (as yet unknown) results of the ballot box. Once again, Washington politics reinforced the grip of a warlord-dominated elite on the machinery of the state and exposed the hollowness of the US-led and UN-supported state building project.
Topic:
Political Violence, Corruption, Democratization, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

5. Thinking about Intelligence Within, Without, and Beyond the State

Author:
Peter Gill
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
The reform or 'democratization' of intelligence has been studied in many countries essentially as a process of transition from authoritarian or 'counterintelligence' states to liberal democratic regimes in which security and intelligence agencies are subject to (more or less) democratic control and oversight. These studies have contributed to the growth in comparative studies of intelligence but have often ignored some key issues, including the conditions for the very existence of 'state' intelligence, the continuing significance of parallel non-state intelligence entities and the involvement of an increasing number of corporate actors in intelligence activities. This chapter examines intelligence as it works within and between different 'sectors' and the implications for democratization. Intelligence is a sub-set of 'surveillance', a ubiquitous social activity, and can be defined as: 'mainly secret activities – targeting, collection, analysis, dissemination and action – intended to enhance security and/or maintain power relative to competitors by forewarning of threats and opportunities.' A central element of this definition – as with surveillance more generally - is the link between information/knowledge and action/power (or, 'intelligence' and 'policy') where the objective of the process is security and it will be subject to resistance. Intelligence is exercised at various social 'levels' from the transnational to the personal: even individuals deploy information gathering in the face of uncertainty in order to assess threats etc.
Topic:
Cold War and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States

6. The Dominican Republic: Becoming a One-Party State?

Author:
Carl Meacham
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Is democracy in danger in the Dominican Republic? Is the country headed toward sustained one-party rule? In an effort to understand the state of Dominican democracy and rule of law, CSIS Americas Program director Carl Meacham led a six-month initiative to answer these questions. This report, which details the project's findings, pays particular attention to alleged growing levels of corruption within the government and the independence—and effectiveness—of the country's judiciary, as well as implications for the Dominican Republic's relations with the United States.
Topic:
Corruption and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States and Caribbean

7. The US and the Gulf States: Uncertain Partners in a Changing Region

Author:
Richard LeBaron
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Two important issues are testing relations between the United States and its allies in the Gulf: democratic transitions in the Arab world and regional security. Their outcome will either strengthen or disrupt what has been a long-term partnership. The United States and its Gulf allies are well into their second year of reacting to, and attempting to influence, the rapid political change in the Middle East and North Africa, but their efforts are informed by differing motivations. Meanwhile the looming threat of Iran attaining nuclear weapons has brought greater urgency to efforts to enhance Gulf security, but also some disquiet in the Gulf about any possible US deal with Iran that would serve global non-proliferation interests but threaten their vital regional security interests.
Topic:
Democratization, International Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, North Africa, and North America

8. The Political Kaleidoscope Turns Again in Crisis-Challenged Iran: 2013 Elections

Author:
Barbara Slavin and Yasmin Alem
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Iran has never had what the West would regard as free, fair, and competitive elections. Some would point to the brief periods following the 1906 Constitutional Revolution and between the end of World War II and 1953, when a CIA-backed coup re-installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, as possible exceptions to this rule. The upcoming presidential elections this June will be no such exception, with candidates restricted to eight proven loyalists to the regime. Nevertheless, the vote will be an important barometer of the stability and durability of an embattled regime that is increasingly unpopular domestically and isolated internationally. The elections will also produce a new turn of the kaleidoscope within Iran's shrinking political elite, as existing factions break apart and regroup. The next president is likely to be more moderate in tone, if not in policy, and more competent and less divisive than the outgoing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This could have important implications not just for the country's domestic course but for Iran's confrontation with the United States and the international community over the nuclear question.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

9. US and EU: Lack of Strategic Vision, Frustrated Efforts Toward the Arab Transitions

Author:
Amy Hawthorne and Danya Greenfield
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The United States and Europe have yet to show the requisite political will or to develop sustainable strategies to help Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Yemen in their democratic transitions more than two years after a wave of popular revolutions toppled decades-old autocracies. To be sure, deepening political, economic, and security challenges in these countries from June 2012 to August 2013, the period analyzed in this report, complicated efforts to provide support. Yet the United States and the European Union (EU) missed important opportunities to capitalize on openings where they existed or to send consistent and sustained diplomatic messages where needed. Faced with the vast amounts of cash the Gulf countries could provide rapidly to the transition countries, especially to Egypt, some in Washington and Brussels wondered if the United States and the EU even had much to offer. In the past year, fatigue and frustration more than energy and hope have characterized US and European engagement with these countries.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Social Movement
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Egypt, and Tunisia

10. Virtuality, Perception and Reality in Myanmar's Democratic Reform

Author:
Victoria Christensen
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Since the summer of 2011, the country of Myanmar has been experiencing rapid democratic reform. Headlines lauding these positive changes have become common-place in the international media. However, experts and academics who have been involved in the decade-long campaign to bring peace and democracy to Myanmar remain divided over how sincere these changes are. Some accuse the Government of carrying out “window-dressing” reforms to please the Western governments and enable the lifting of sanctions. They argue that the Government has a vested interest in maintaining the reins of power and that there is no incentive to make true democratic reforms. During a speech in Oslo in June 2012, Aung San Suu Kyi, the Myanmarese Pro-democracy leader described the recent reforms as positive but warned against blind faith in the process and pointed out the main challenges that remain unresolved – namely the ethnic issues and the ongoing imprisonment of political prisoners.
Topic:
Democratization, Human Rights, Political Economy, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Geneva, United States, China, Tehran, Korea, and Southeast Asia

11. Claims to Legitimacy Matter: Why Sanctions Fail to Instigate Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes

Author:
Christian von Soest and Julia Grauvogel
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
International sanctions have been one of the most commonly used tools of Western foreign policy in the post‐Cold War era to instigate democratization globally. However, despite long‐term external pressure through sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States and/or the United Nations, nondemocratic rule in cases such as Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, Iran, North Korea and Syria has proven to be extremely persistent. In this paper, we analyze a new global dataset on sanctions from 1990 to 2011 and assess which international and domestic factors account for the persistence of nondemocratic rule in targeted regimes. The results of a fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) of 120 episodes of sanctions provide new insights for the research on both sanctions and authoritarian regimes. Most significantly, sanctions strengthen nondemocratic rule if the regime manages to incorporate their existence into its legitimation strategy. Such a “rally‐round‐the‐flag” effect occurs most often in cases where comprehensive sanctions targeting the entire population are imposed on regimes that enjoy strong claims to legitimacy and have only limited linkages to the sanction sender.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Governance, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, North Korea, United Nations, and Syria

12. Women and Conflict in Afghanistan

Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As the presidential election approaches in 2014, with the security transition at the year's end, Afghan women, including parliamentarians and rights activists, are concerned that the hard-won political, economic and social gains achieved since the U.S.-led intervention in 2001 may be rolled back or conceded in negotiations with the insurgents. Afghanistan's stabilisation ultimately rests on the state's accountability to all its citizens, and respect for constitutional, legal and international commitments, including to human rights and gender equality. There will be no sustainable peace unless there is justice, and justice demands that the state respect and protect the rights of women, half its population.
Topic:
NATO, Democratization, Development, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

13. Great Expectations: Iran's New President and the Nuclear Talks

Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In a region that recently has produced virtually nothing but bad news, Hassan Rouhani's 4 August swearing in as Iran's president offers a rare and welcome glimmer of hope. There are still far more questions than answers: about the extent of his authority; his views on his country's nuclear program, with which he long has been associated; and the West's ability to display requisite flexibility and patience. But, although both sides can be expected to show caution, now is the time to put more ambitious proposals on the table, complement the multilateral talks with a bilateral U.S.-Iranian channel and expand the dialogue to encompass regional security issues.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, Diplomacy, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

14. The International Politics of Drugs and Illicit Trade in the Americas

Author:
Peter Andreas and Angelica Duran-Martinez
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
Illicit trade has long been a central feature of Latin America's engagement in the world. In this chapter we first briefly sketch the scope and dimensions of illicit trade in the region, and stress the importance of various types of power asymmetries. Drawing on illustrations primarily from drug trafficking (by far the most studied and documented case), we then outline in a preliminary fashion some of the key issues in understanding transnational illicit flows and their impact on Latin America foreign and domestic policy and governance. We concentrate on four themes: 1) the relationship between illicit trade and diplomatic relations with the United States; 2) the relationship between illicit trade and democratic governance; 3) the relationship between illicit trade and organized violence; and 4) the relationship between illicit trade and neoliberalism.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Latin America

15. The People Behind the Press: Building Social Capital in New Media Ecologies

Author:
Steve J. Fox
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The aim of this article is to introduce an original framework in which new media ecologies can be understood to develop. Specifically, it examines the unique, world-leading online ecology of South Korea, to suggest how new forms of democratic process and social organisation can be emulated elsewhere. The discussion identifies and analyses several policy and cultural factors to distil three encompassing variables that comprise a framework for understanding the Korean situation, and the application of new technologies: structure, ethos and activity. Ultimately, it is a framework that may be used to investigate social organisation mechanisms that may potentiate news media's role in democratic society. This concept of social organisation is constructed around the notion of social capital and theorised as an infrastructure for new news media models. In the outcome, it is argued that news media could themselves become civic socialization mechanisms that encourage a more active and engaged citizenry, reflecting social capital's strong relationship with political participation, and thus a continuing foundational role for journalism in democracy.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Communications, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
United States, East Asia, and South Korea

16. How to Promote International Religious Freedom

Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
President Obama's 2009 Cairo speech and Secretary Clinton's 2012 speech at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace persuasively argued for policies that promote international religious freedom (IRF), including links to national security, economic development, and democracy promotion, and as an antidote to religious extremism and terrorism. Unfortunately, current IRF policy--in place since 1998 and largely built around the threat of economic sanctions which no administration has been willing to use--is not up to the challenges or the opportunities that President Obama and Secretary Clinton so eloquently identified. To correct that, the White House needs to embrace a leadership role, building an infrastructure and providing the necessary resources for a reinvigorated policy of new tools and strategies to thrive. The need is pressing.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Economics, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

17. Advancing Myanmar's Transition: A Way Forward for U.S. Policy

Author:
Priscilla Clapp and Suzanne DiMaggio
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In January 2012, an Asia Society delegation visited Burma/Myanmar to engage in a Track II dialogue with the Myanmar Development Resources Institute (MDRI), a newly created, independent think tank based in Yangon. The MDRI participants in the dialogue include advisors with a mandate to provide policy advice in the areas of political, economic, and legal affairs to President Thein Sein and his government. The goal of this informal dialogue is to establish an ongoing channel of communication between experts from both countries and to explore opportunities to advance U.S.–Myanmar relations during a particularly fluid and fragile period of transition in Myanmar.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

18. Democratic Internationalism: An American Grand Strategy for a Post-exceptionalist Era

Author:
G. John Ikenberry and Daniel Deudney
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Over the past half-century—what is often called the “American century”—the United States enjoyed extraordinary success, growth, and influence. It was not only the pivotal “arsenal” in the defense of democracy but also the principal exemplar of democratic capitalism that held enormous appeal around the world. During this era, the United States was simultaneously locked in a geopolitical and ideological bipolar struggle with the Soviet Union and, within the free world community, acknowledged as the leader and defender of a broad community of democratic capitalist countries. Not surprisingly, therefore, the United States pursued a multifaceted grand strategy. It played the role of Cold War leader of a coalition in global great power rivalry. It was also the indispensable leader in building order and cooperation within the free world camp. At the same time, the United States often employed its immense influence to advance a universalistic program of human betterment centered on political democracy, market capitalism, free trade, human rights, national self-determination, and international law and organization.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States and Soviet Union

19. Zimbabwe: An Opportunity for Closer U.S.-South Africa Relations

Author:
John Campbell
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
As Zimbabwe moves closer to elections, the prospect for political violence, even civil war, grows. President Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are wrangling over a new constitution and the timing of upcoming elections. The eighty-eight-year-old Mugabe is suffering from cancer and wants elections soon to ensure his "liberation" legacy. At the same time, Mugabe-allied military factions, flush with off-the-books cash from Marange diamonds mined in the eastern part of the country, are mobilizing to stay in power when Mugabe dies. Political murder is on the upswing and Zimbabwe is as tense and divided now as it was during the run-up to the violent 2008 elections.
Topic:
Political Violence, Corruption, Democratization, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

20. Kazakhstan and the United States: Twenty Years of Ambiguous Partnership

Author:
Sean R. Roberts
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In looking at twenty years of independence in the former Soviet region of Central Asia, Kazakhstan stands out in most respects as a stable oasis in a desert of uncertainty. It is the wealthiest country in Central Asia. It has not suffered any serious conflict since gaining independence, and the development of its economy, financial sector, and private sector has been steadily moving forward as has its engagement with the global economy. It is little wonder, therefore, that the most stable and fruitful bilateral partnership for the United States in the region over the past twenty years has been with the Republic of Kazakhstan. US-Kazakhstan relations have never experienced a significant crisis, and there has been ongoing cooperation between the two countries in a variety of areas, including nuclear non-proliferation, economic development, and energy extraction.
Topic:
Democratization, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, and Kazakhstan