Political Geography: United States / Topic:

7301. Prime Contract Awards, Size Distribution

Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: This report provides data on prime contract actions (PCAs) over $25,000 awarded by the Department of Defense (DoD) in fiscal year (FY) 1998. For reporting purposes, contracts have been distributed by dollar value into 11 different size categories. The tables provide information on the number of total actions, their net value, and their percentage of distribution, by size, and according to a variety of categories. The categories include Defense Component, type of contract involved, extent of competed procurements, kind of contract action taken, selected procurement programs, and labor standard statutes. Table 1 presents data by individual size category (e.g., $25,000 to $49,999, $50,000 to $99,999) while Tables 2 through 7 present data in cumulative categories (e.g., $25,000 or more; $50,000 or more). The information in Prime Contract Awards, Size Distribution, assists DoD management in projecting the workload that will be required by various proposed projects. For example, using data in this publication, DoD officials could determine that a proposal to review all contract actions of $500,000 or more in FY 1998 would require examining approximately 27,000 transactions, or 11.7 percent of the total transactions as shown in Table 2. These data can also be used to identify trends in DoD procurement, (e.g., to identify which of the various types of contracts were most frequently awarded, in terms of number of contract actions, during FY 1998).
Topic:: Defense Policy and Economics
Political Geography:: United States

7302. Prime Contract Award: Fiscal Year 1998

Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: This report presents a variety of current and historical data pertaining to Department of Defense (DoD) prime contract awards. All historical tables commence with fiscal year (FY) 1988 data. Six categories of data on DoD prime contracts are provided. Data are displayed by type of contractor, by procurement program, by competition, and by type of contract pricing provision. Awards for research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT) are discussed separately, as is the DoD Small Business Subcontracting Program. Amounts in this report are shown for the DoD Agency that awards the prime contracts and not the department or agency that budgets for the supplies or services. In addition, data for the Army, Navy, and Air Force include prime contracts awarded on behalf of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and other Federal Agencies, as well as for foreign countries whose Defense purchases are reimbursable. Percentages are derived by dividing the detail line or the subtotal line by the base line designated by 100 percent, unless otherwise noted. Column headings, footnotes, or section narrative are used to identify these exceptions. Indentation is used to provide assistance in recognizing total, subtotal, and detail line information. The data are collected in whole dollars and the totals given in some tables may not add due to rounding. This report includes awards made by Other Defense Agencies (ODAs), which are listed in the Glossary. It also includes tariff or regulated acquisitions under $25,000. It does not include obligations for “in house” work performed at government owned and operated establishments, such as Navy shipyards, Army arsenals, and Air Force research laboratories, except to the extent that such establishments place contracts for supplies and services with industry or other Federal Agencies. The estimated dollar amounts of indefinite quantity petroleum contracts are included in this report, but the number of individual orders written against these contracts has not been included in the totals for procurement actions. For the definition of terms used in this publication, see the Glossary.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Economics
Political Geography:: United States

7303. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of December 16, 1999

Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $25.9 billion in October, from $24.2 billion (revised) in September, as exports decreased and imports increased.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7304. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of November 18, 1999

Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $24.4 billion in September, from $23.5 billion (revised) in August, as exports decreased and imports increased.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7305. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of October 20, 1999

Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $24.1 billion in August, from $24.9 billion (revised) in July, as exports increased more than imports.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7306. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of September 21, 1999

Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $25.2 billion in July, from $24.6 billion (revised) in June, as imports increased more than exports.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7307. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of August 19, 1999

Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $24.6 billion in June, from $21.2 billion (revised) in May, as imports increased more than exports.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7308. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of July 20, 1999

Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $21.3 billion in May, from $18.6 billion (revised) in April, as imports increased and exports decreased.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7309. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of June 17, 1999

Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The Nation's international deficit in goods and services was $18.9 billion in April, virtually unchanged from March (revised), as exports and imports increased.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7310. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of April 20, 1999

Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $19.4 billion in February, from $16.8 billion (revised) in January as imports increased and exports decreased.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7311. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of March 18, 1999

Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $17.0 billion in January, from $14.1 billion (revised) in December as imports increased and exports decreased.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7312. Balance on Current Account - As of December 14, 1999

Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7313. Balance on Current Account - As of September 14, 1999

Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7314. Balance on Current Account - As of June 17, 1999

Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7315. Balance on Current Account - As of March 11, 1999

Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7316. Net Oil Imports - As of December 21, 1999

Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economics and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: United States

7317. Net Oil Imports - As of October 1, 1999

Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economics and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: United States

7318. Net Oil Imports - As of August 17, 1999

Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economics and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: United States

7319. Net Oil Imports - As of January 29, 1999

Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economics and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: United States

7320. Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: New Investment in 1998

Author:: Mahnaz Fahim-Nader
Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: Last year,outlays by foreign direct investors to acquire or establish businesses in the United States surged to $201.0 billion, 2 1/2 times the previous record of $79.9 billion set in 1996 and almost triple the 1997 level of $69.7 billion ( table 1 and chart 1). The 1998 outlays were boosted by two exceptionally large acquisitions, each of which significantly exceeded the size of any previous single investment. However, even without these two investments, outlays were still about 40 percent higher than those in 1996.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7321. Regional Patterns in the Location of Foreign-Owned U.S. Manufacturing Establishments

Author:: Dale P. Shannon and William J. Zeile
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: A new data set on foreign–owned establishments supports an analysis of regional patterns of foreign direct investment in the United States (FDIUS) that uses comprehensive establishment data and is based on geographic areas that are defined on an economic basis rather than on a strictly political or administrative basis. A key feature of the data set is the separate identification of newly built, or “greenfield,” establishments. Greenfield establishments are of particular interest in the analysis of FDIUS because they indicate explicit locational choices by the foreign owners at the time of the investment.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

7322. Illuminating Tomorrow's War

Author:: Martin C. Libicki
Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The United States is midway through what may be called a revolution in military affairs (RMA). 9 This revolution opened in the 1970s with the development and refinement of precision-guided munitions 1° (PGMs), which can hit anything that can be located. It is likely to culminate with the multiplication and integration of the DOD C41SR assets, thereby creating a well-populated Grid. In the process, the physical battlespace will become illuminated better than ever. As this occurs, conventional warfare will change from force on force to hide-and-seek. Hence the need for a Grid capable of illuminating the battlespace, a case that rests on five tenets: With precision weaponry, seeing a target is tantamount to being able to kill it. The guidance for such weaponry is potentially shifting from shooters or internal sensors to externally provided information. Defenses exist against PGMs, but the link between seeing and hitting is likely to strengthen over time.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
Political Geography:: United States

7323. The Revolution in Military Affairs: Allied Perspectives

Author:: Robbin F. Laird and Holger H. Mey
Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The revolution in military affairs (RMA) is an American concept that frames a debate about the restructuring of American military forces in the period of globalization of the American economy. A core task for U.S. allies is to seek to understand the American debate and to identify opportunities for and the risks to themselves in variant patterns of development of the American military in the years ahead.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
Political Geography:: United States and America

7324. OECD Short Term Indicators Databank: March 1999

Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:: There is a considerable range in OECD national tax levels, as tax revenues as a percentage of GDP show. The tax bur- den in 1996 exceeded 45% of GDP in five countries, all in Europe – Den- mark, Sweden, Finland, Belgium and France. In contrast, five countries had tax levels below 30%: Mexico, Korea, Turkey, Japan and the United States. Mexico's total tax revenues were nearly 22 percentage points below the OECD average of 37.7%.
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Europe, Turkey, Korea, and Mexico

7325. OECD Short Term Indicators: March 1999

Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:: Gross Domestic product: Volume series, seasonally adjusted except for Czech Republic and Portugal; Leading indicator: A composite indicator, based on other indicators of economic activity (employment, sales, income, etc.), which signals cyclical movements in industrial production from six to nine months in advance; Consumer price index: Measures changes in average retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services; Current balance: $ billion; not seasonally adjusted except for Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States; Unemployment rate: % of civilian labour force – standardised unemployment rate; national definitions for Czech Republic, Iceland, Korea, Mexico, Poland, Switzerland and Turkey; seasonally adjusted apart from Turkey; Interest rate: Three months, except for Greece (twelve months) and Turkey (overnight interbank rate); .. not available Sources: Main Economic Indicators, OECD Publications, Paris, December 1998. For Hungary, PIB*: CSO and current balance*: Central Bank.
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, Turkey, Poland, Australia, Switzerland, and Mexico

7326. OECD Short Term Indicators Databank: January 1999

Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:: Health care spending In the United States public spending on health care came to 3.9% of GDP in 1980, and rose to 6.3% by 1995. Most countries saw some increase too, but a few countries saw their ratios fall, notably Sweden (8.7% to 7.1%) and Ireland (7.1% to 5.2%). The country with the highest ratio of public health care spending to GDP in 1995 was Germany, with 8.1%. US public spending on health care was about average for the 21 countries in the table, but the United States spends as much again on private healthcare. As a result US total spending on health care stood at 13.6% of GDP in 1995, significantly higher than any other OECD country.
Political Geography:: United States, Germany, and Sweden

7327. OECD Short Term Indicators: November 1998

Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:: Gross Domestic Product: Volume series, seasonally adjusted except for Czech Republic and Portugal Leading Indicator: A composite indicator, based on other indicators of economic activity (employment, sales, income, etc.), which signals cyclical movements in industrial production from six to nine months in advance Consumer Price Index: Measures changes in average retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services Current Balance: $ billion; not seasonally adjusted except for Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States Unemployment Rate: % of civilian labour force – standardised unemployment rate; national definitions for Czech Republic, Iceland, Korea, Mexico, Poland, Switzerland and Turkey; seasonally adjusted apart from Turkey Interest Rate: Three months, except for Greece (twelve months) and Turkey (overnight interbank rate) ..
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, Turkey, Poland, Australia, Switzerland, Korea, Mexico, Iceland, and Czech Republic

7328. American Policy Toward Iraq and Iran in Clinton's Second Term

Author:: Robert O. Freedman
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: During U.S. President Bill Clinton's second term in office, the U.S. "dual containment" policy toward Iran and Iraq, which he inherited from the Bush administration and then intensified during his first term, had come close to collapse.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

7329. Prospects for Northeast Asian Multilateral Security Cooperation

Author:: Ralph A. Cossa
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: A broad variety of multilateral security dialogue mechanisms has emerged in the Asia-Pacific region in recent years. These efforts at building trust and confidence, both at the official and at the nongovernmental or so-called "track two" level, have the potential for enhancing Northeast Asian regional security. All Northeast Asian nations express support for such efforts. The current trend toward multilateralism is also generally consistent with U.S. foreign policy objectives in Asia, albeit as an important complement to America's bilateral security arrangements (which remain the foundation of U.S. security policy in Asia).
Political Geography:: United States, Asia, and Northeast Asia

7330. Old Wine in New Bottles: The Pentagon's East Asia Security Strategy Report

Author:: Doug Bandow
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: To contain Soviet-led communism and, secondarily, to prevent a militarily resurgent Japan, Washington established a network of alliances, bases, and deployments throughout East Asia after World War II. By the 1990s the Soviet Union had imploded, China had become a reasonably restrained international player, and other communist states had lost their ideological edge. At the same time, the noncommunist nations had leaped ahead economically. Despite such momentous developments, however, U.S. policy remains fundamentally the same.
Political Geography:: United States, China, East Asia, and Soviet Union

7331. Korea and Japanese Security

Author:: C.S. Eliot Kang
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: The Korean peninsula is crucial to Japanese security. Currently, the Japan-United States alliance is being reinvigorated to meet the continuing threat posed by North Korea as well as new challenges in the post-cold war era. The recently announced new defense cooperation guidelines outline the support the Japanese will extend to U.S. forces during peacetime, during an armed attack on Japan, and in emergencies "in areas surrounding Japan." In order to avoid unduly alarming China and to win public acceptance of the reformulation of the alliance in the absence of the kind of mortal threat once posed by the Soviet Union, the continuing danger posed by North Korea has been underlined. Yet, should the North Korean threat disappear, justifying the Japan-U.S. alliance will be that much more difficult. To forestall any danger of unraveling of the alliance, Japan must work with South Korea to formulate a new vision of the security relationship between Seoul and Tokyo that more closely integrates their common interests with those of their mutual ally, the United States.
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Soviet Union, Tokyo, and Korea

7332. What Is KEDO?

Author:: Desaix Anderson
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: The Korean peninsula, especially the demilitarized zone (DMZ) that splits it in two, is one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints. President Clinton called it "one of the scariest places on earth." In addition to the troops massed on the DMZ, the fragility of Northeast Asian security is underscored by North Korea's military and technological capability. The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), North Korea, has one of world's largest armies, a million men, with artillery capable of bombarding Seoul. In August 1998, the DPRK launched a Taepodong I missile, which has the range to hit anywhere in South Korea or Japan. With further development, such missiles could reach Alaska, Hawaii, or even the continental United States.
Political Geography:: United States, North Korea, Korea, and Northeast Asia

7333. The Mined Road to Peace in Guatemala

Author:: Susanne Jonas
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: This paper presents a political history and interpretation of the Guatemalan peace process, its turning points, and its crises. Beyond the significance of the process for Guatemala itself, the story of the peace negotiations holds fascinating and surprising lessons for a conflict-ridden world. Highlighted are the dynamics of the negotiation in its different stages, the role of the UN as a central player, its interactions with the key Guatemalan players, and some suggested hypotheses about the effects of the UN involvement.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States

7334. Start the Trade and Labor Dialogue

Author:: David Weiner
Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Overseas Development Council
Abstract:: The debate over trade and labor standards is one of the most divisive in relations between industrial and developing countries. Concern about the impact of trade on workers is undermining support for trade liberalization worldwide.
Topic:: Environment, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: United States

7335. The Future of the U.S. Foreign Assistance Program

Author:: J. Brian Atwood
Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Overseas Development Council
Abstract:: Let me begin by thanking John Sewell and ODC for sponsoring this forum. ODC has contributed so much to development thinking over the years. I could not think of a more appropriate venue for my last message to the development community as AID Administrator. One year ago, I decided it was time to bring my tenure to a close. About that time Sandy Berger asked me if I would agree to serve as Ambassador to Brazil. That decision was obviously a mistake. I lost control over my own timetable. I would probably still be waiting for a hearing if I had not withdrawn my nomination. Timetables are important when you are trying to bring closure to both a government career and a term of office. When I leave government on July 9, I will complete six years, two months and four days as AID Administrator. That is not a record, by the way, it just feels that way ! While it is natural to want to achieve a neat closure to this experience, I have concluded that there will always be unfinished business. That is what I want to talk to you about today.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Globalization, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States

7336. ODC Viewpoint - U.S. Trade Policy: Misreading the Developing World

Author:: David Weiner
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Overseas Development Council
Abstract:: U.S. trade leadership has suffered from a contentious policy debate that has left President Clinton without new fast-track trade negotiating authority since 1994. Disagreement over the impact of commerce with developing countries on jobs and the environment is at the heart of the trade quarrel, but that quarrel misreads what is happening in developing economies and what is achievable in negotiations with them.
Topic:: Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7337. The U.S. Perspective on Globalization

Author:: Stuart Eizenstat
Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Overseas Development Council
Abstract:: The Overseas Development Council was prescient in calling for an international dialogue on globalization last year. It is a particularly important time for a dialogue on the relationship between globalization and development, given new concerns raised by the global financial crisis.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

7338. Croatia—Post-Tudjman Politics

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Croatia is preparing for two elections—parliamentary polls on January 3 and, following the recent death of President Franjo Tudjman, a presidential contest on January 24. Thus, the population has an opportunity to choose real change, and to set Croatia firmly on the path of economic transformation and European integration, after a period of stilted political and economic development, marked by cronyism, under Tudjman. However, this scenario is by no means certain.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and Eastern Europe

7339. Middle East—Renewed Peace Negotiations

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: It was exactly 18 years ago this week that former Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin rushed from his hospital room, where he was being treated for a broken hip, descended on a surprised Knesset, and, within a few hours, forced through a bill imposing Israeli sovereignty on the Golan Heights. This same sense of urgency now animates Prime Minister Ehud Barak in his attempts to negotiate a peace agreement with Syria that will, perforce, require the abrogation of Begin's initiative.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Palestine

7340. United States—Interest Rate Outlook

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The quarter-point increase in the fed funds rate announced at the November 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was accompanied by the adoption of a neutral directive for the inter-meeting period, in place of the bias towards tightening in force since early October. The directive indicates that the Fed intends the rise to be the last of this year. However, the OECD, in its recent Economic Outlook, predicted that another one percentage point increase in the fed funds rate will be needed to restore demand and supply to equilibrium. While the economy will probably not slow sufficiently of its own accord, the incentives to defer action into 2000 mean that rates are likely to remain as they are during 1999, though probably associated with an announced bias towards tightening.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

7341. United States—Senatorial Stability?

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Debate surrounding the US elections in 2000 has centred on the contests for the presidency, and control of the House of Representatives. Far less attention has been placed on the partisan balance within the Senate. During the past two decades, the upper chamber has increased its influence over policy direction, a trend that appears likely to continue. Growing senatorial influence will act as a moderating force in US politics regardless of who occupies the White House or which party holds a majority in the House.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States

7342. Middle East—Peace Process Unfrozen

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Last week's signing of an Israeli–Palestinian agreement at Sharm al-Sheikh represents an important development in the search for a lasting settlement in the Middle East. The deal illustrates that it is possible to reach an agreement from which all parties will gain, while also exposing enduring problems. The progress made at Sharm al-Sheikh represents, as Nabil Shaath of the Palestinian authority described, an 'unfreezing' of the peace process. Whether the whole process can be infused with greater warmth depends firstly on US efforts to impel the Syrian–Israeli peace negotiations; secondly, it relies on the ability of the regional leaders to make the compromises necessary to reach a peace that all can present as a victory to their domestic constituencies.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

7343. United States—Iraq Policy

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: In the past nine months, the United States and the United Kingdom have pursued a low-intensity military campaign against Iraq. Such actions have been made easier by a lack of political scrutiny. However, the US administration in particular now faces mounting criticism from France, China and Russia, who favour a relaxation of policy, and domestic US interest groups favouring a more activist stance. Despite these pressures, US President Bill Clinton is unlikely to change policy significantly in his remaining 18 months of office.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East, and France

7344. United States -- Economic Slowdown?

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: In recent weeks, economic data has produced conflicting signals about the strength of domestic demand within the US economy. A majority within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) believes that growth will decelerate and that only a small tightening of monetary policy will be necessary in the short term. However, the Federal Reserve has consistently underestimated domestic demand, and there are signs that the economy is still buoyant. Moreover, with improving economic prospects in Europe and Asia, the external forces encouraging lower US interest rates are likely to be reversed. The combination of these factors could put pressure on the Fed to tighten further.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Asia

7345. The International Financial Architecture

Author:: Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: The recent financial crises in many emerging market economies have raised anew questions about the appropriate exchange-rate regime and the use of capital controls as policy instruments. The use of both mechanisms should be tailored to each country's unique circumstances. Fixed exchange-rate mechanisms, such as dollarization (adopting the dollar as legal tender in place of the national currency), are suited to small open economies or those desperate to import monetary stability. Larger economies, such as the European Union (EU) and the United States, should allow their currencies to float. Intermediate regimes that fall between fixed- and floating-rate regimes—such as bands, baskets, and crawls (See Figure 1 for definitions)—are still appropriate for some countries. Certain well-targeted restrictions on the composition of capital flows might be appropriate for some emerging-market countries as temporary measures when inflows are particularly high.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

7346. The Case Against Tax Cuts

Author:: William G. Gale and Alan J. Auerbach
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Emerging federal budget surpluses have sparked calls for large-scale tax cuts that would be irresponsible and counterproductive. Surpluses over the next ten years are based on optimistic assumptions regarding revenues and spending. Even if they do materialize, the surpluses will exist only because government accounting obscures the growing cost of future liabilities. The government faces a large, long-term deficit, and tax cuts would make this problem worse. The proposed 10-percent income tax rate cut would provide disproportionately large benefits to wealthy households and little to lower income households. It would have little effect on economic growth, but would impose higher burdens on future generations, and would reduce future budget discipline by violating the budget rules. Moreover, for most families, tax burdens are already at their lowest level in twenty years. Saving the surplus, by paying down public debt, would help the economy much more than would tax cuts.
Topic:: Government and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

7347. The Changing Shape of Government

Author:: Paul C. Light
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: The past six years have witnessed the most significant reshaping of the federal workforce in recent history. On the one hand, government clearly has lost weight. The total number of full-time federal employees has declined, as has the number of federal middle-level managers. On the other hand, government has gotten much taller, at least as measured by the number of layers at the very top of the federal hierarchy. This changing shape means that ordinary Americans will be less likely to contact a federal employee when they call a government 800 number, write an office, or use a service. It also means that the nation's elected and appointed leaders will be further from the front lines, and less likely to know what the public is getting for its tax dollars.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: United States

7348. Drug Trafficking on the Great Silk Road: The Security Environment in Central Asia

Author:: Martha Brill Olcott
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: To address drug proliferation and trafficking in the context of non-traditional security threats and to try to find ways out of the potentially explosive situation, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace sponsored a meeting of representatives of the five Central Asian states, Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, the United States, the United Nations Drug Control Program (UNDCP), the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the Aga Khan Development Network, held in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan in May 1999. This paper analyzes the situation in the region based on the conference proceedings and aims to raise international awareness of the seriousness of the problem. It also advocates the need for a concerted effort within the region and without to help these countries fight this evil.
Topic:: Security and International Law
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Turkey, Asia, and United Nations

7349. Ballistic Missile Proliferation: Does the Clinton Administration Understand the Threat?

Author:: Ivan Eland and Timothy M. Beard
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Although the end of the Cold War reduced the likelihood of a nuclear exchange between the superpowers, several smaller rogue states, through their dedicated efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles, have emerged as potential threats to U.S. national security. National Intelligence Estimate 95-19 stated that no new missile threats to the United States would develop before 2010. However, given the curious circumstances of the estimate's release and the many analytical faults contained in the document, its results have been questioned.
Topic:: Defense Policy and National Security
Political Geography:: United States

7350. Strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention: Illusory Benefits and Nasty Side Effects

Author:: Eric R. Taylor
Publication Date:: 10-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The Biological Toxins and Weapons Convention—signed in 1972—prohibits signatory nations from developing, possessing, employing, or transferring biological weapons. The convention does not contain any protocols for its enforcement, however. There is now an international effort under way to develop such protocols.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States

7351. Corporate Welfare for Weapons Makers the Hidden Costs of Spending on Defense and Foreign Aid

Author:: William D. Hartung
Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The defense and foreign aid budgets are the largest single source of government funding for private corporations. More than half of U.S. weapons sales are now being financed by taxpayers instead of foreign arms purchasers. During fiscal year 1996 (the last year for which full statistics are available), the government spent more than $7.9 billion to help U.S. companies secure just over $12 billion in agreements for new international arms sales. The annual $7.9 billion in subsidies includes taxpayer-backed loans, grants, and government promotional activities that help U.S. weapons makers sell their products to foreign customers. Also, the provision of low-cost facilities and extensive subsidies for research and development and mergers and acquisitions to major contractors fosters a “risk-free” environment in which weapons makers have little economic incentive to produce effective systems at affordable prices. Furthermore, a portion of the $120 billion the Pentagon spends each year on contracts with U.S. defense contractors is being wasted on defense pork—that is, redundant or unneeded weapons systems. Such subsidies and spending for defense pork can interfere with the fulfillment of legitimate security needs.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Climate Change, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: United States

7352. Blunder in the Balkans: The Clinton Administration's Bungled War against Serbia

Author:: Christopher Layne
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The Clinton administration has made one miscalculation after another in dealing with the Kosovo crisis. U.S. officials and their NATO colleagues never understood the historical and emotional importance of Kosovo to the Serbia n people, believing instead that Belgrade's harsh repression of the ethnic Albanian secessionist movement in Kosovo merely reflected the will of President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia. The administration's foreign policy team mistakenly concluded that, under a threat of air strikes, the Yugoslav government would sign a dictate d peace accord (the Rambouillet agreement) to be implemented by a NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo. Even if Milosevic initially refused to sign the Rambouillet agreement, administration leaders believed that Belgrade would relent after a brief “demonstration” bombing campaign. Those calculations proved to be disastrously wrong.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania

7353. Old Wine in New Bottles: The Pentagon's East Asia Security Strategy Report

Author:: Doug Bandow
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: To contain Soviet-led communism and, secondarily, to prevent a militarily resurgent Japan, Washington established a network of alliances, bases, and deployments throughout East Asia after World War II. By the 1990s the Soviet Union had imploded, China had become a reasonably restrained international player, and other communist states had lost their ideological edge. At the same time, the noncommunist nations had leaped ahead economically. Despite such momentous developments, however, U.S. policy remains fundamentally the same.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Washington, Israel, and Soviet Union

7354. Is Readiness Overrated? Implications for a Tiered Readiness Force Structure

Author:: James L. George
Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Readiness, the capability to respond quickly to a conflict with the appropriate force, is considered one of the most important elements in defense planning. From one-third to well over one-half of the defense budget goes toward maintaining readiness. Few people questioned the need for readiness, especially after the attack by North Korea against South Korea in 1950 and during the Cold War, when the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact was poised to quickly thrust into Western Europe without much warning.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Cold War
Political Geography:: United States, South Korea, North Korea, and Western Europe

7355. National Missile Defense: Examining the Options

Author:: Charles V. Peña and Barbara Conry
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: To date, the debate surrounding national missile defense (NMD) has been dominated by political rhetoric. Supporters (usually conservatives) often paint a “doom-and-gloom” picture, pointing out that the United States is vulnerable to an attack by ballistic missiles. Critics (usually liberals) defend the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty as the cornerstone of deterrence and stability and argue that any defensive deployment would upset the balance between the offensive strategic nuclear forces of the United States and Russia.
Topic:: Defense Policy
Political Geography:: Russia and United States

7356. U.S. Assistance for Market Reforms: Foreign Aid Failures in Russia and the Former Soviet Bloc

Author:: Janine R. Wedel
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the subsequent breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, the governments of the United States and other Western countries have provided massive aid to promote a transition to the free market in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. But aid for market reforms in the region has been largely ineffective. Whether provided in the form of technical assistance, grants to political groups or nongovernmental organizations, loans and guarantees to the private sector, or direct financial aid to post-communist governments, that aid has been plagued by a number of problems. The failed $22.6 billion bailout of Russia by the International Monetary Fund in July 1998 only confirmed the flawed nature of the aid-for-reform approach.
Topic:: Economics and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

7357. Tilting at Windmills: Post-Cold War Military Threats to U.S. Security

Author:: Ivan Eland
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Serious military threats to U.S. security have diminished dramatically since the end of the Cold War. The threat from conventional Russian military forces has all but disintegrated and would take many years to reconstitute. China would take 20 to 30 years to transform its bloated and obsolete military into a major threat to U.S. vital interests. The militaries in both nations should be watched, but they may never develop into credible threats.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States

7358. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: The Costs Outweigh the Benefits

Author:: Kathleen C. Bailey
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is now before the U.S. Senate for its advice and consent. The treaty bans all explosive testing of nuclear weapons. Advocates of the CTBT make several arguments in support of the treaty. The reasons reduce to two points: the ban will constrain the modernization and development of nuclear weapons by the nations that already possess them, and it will help prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to additional nations. Both objectives are set out in the CTBT's preamble.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States

7359. Civil Society, the Public Sector, and Poor Communities

Author:: Kingsley G. Thomas and James Gibson
Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: The current devolution debate has focused on shifting responsibilities from the federal level to the states. A byproduct of this shift has been renewed attention to an often neglected element of the policy mix—the costs and benefits of different local institutionalarrangement—and to the potential roles of civil society and community-based initiatives in that mix. The local tableau has recently been rediscovered as a vital leg on which the performance of the public sector is dependent. Students of government are only beginning to understand this play between civil society and the public sector. Here we focus especially on the dynamics within poor communities, where simple assistance is no longer considered adequate to solve problems without the necessary institutional infrastructure that is sometimes included under the label “civil society.”
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Welfare, and Poverty
Political Geography:: United States

7360. The Internet Society and its Struggle for Recognition and Influence

Author:: Raymund Werle and Volker Leib
Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: With the formation of a private non–profit corporation providing mainly technical coordination and guidance for the global Internet, a new, as yet uncertain, era of the network's governance began in November 1998. The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) assumed the responsibility for functions which previously were guaranteed by the US government. Thus ICANN serves as an example of private governance with global significance, in an industry which can neither be completely left to the market nor exclusively be governed by national public authorities or international intergovernmental organizations.
Topic:: Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

7361. Social Funds in Stabilization and Adjustment Programmes

Author:: Giovanni Cornia
Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Well before the introduction of adjustment-related Social Funds (SFs), many developing countries had developed a variety of safety nets comprising food subsidies, nutrition interventions, employment-based schemes and targeted transfers. Middle-income and a few low-income countries had also achieved extensive coverage in the field of social insurance. In countries committed to fighting poverty, these programmes absorbed considerable resources (2-5 per cent of GDP, excluding social insurance) and had a large impact on job creation, income support and nutrition: for instance, in 1983, Chile's public works programme absorbed 13 per cent of the labour force. Their ability to expand quickly depended on a permanent structure of experienced staff, good portfolios of projects, clear management rules, adequate allocation of domestic resources, supply-driven execution and, with the exception of food subsidies, fairly good targeting.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, South Asia, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and Chile

7362. On the Regulation of Telecommunications Markets

Author:: Manfred J. Holler
Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper discusses the theoretical concepts underlying recent developments in the regulation of telecommunications in Europe, the USA and developing countries with respect to efficiency and welfare. It focuses on analysing standardization problems, pricing rules and entry condition related to networks and network effects and derives preliminary policy recommendations for the telecommunications industry through a discussion of network models and related empirical evidence.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

7363. Resource-Led Growth — A Long-Term Perspective: The Relevance of the 1870-1914 Experience for Today's Developing Economies

Author:: Ronald Findlay and Mats Lundahl
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Resource-Led Growth – A Long-Term Perspective surveys the 1870-1914 experience of growth in resource-rich economies: the so-called regions of recent settlement, some tropical countries and some mineral-based export economies. First, three contrasting stylized views of resource-led development are presented. Thereafter the picture of international trade in primary products and the migration of production factors between 1870 and 1914 is sketched. The third section presents some models that may be used to analyse trade and factor movements in the context of resource-rich (staples) economies and provides some details of the experience of fifteen countries: Canada, the United States, Australia and Argentina among the regions of recent settlement, Brazil, Costa Rica, Colombia, Ceylon, Malaya, Burma, Siam and the Gold Coast in the tropical group, and Bolivia, Chile and South Africa among the mineral exporters.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Canada, South Africa, Burma, Chile, and Bolivia

7364. The Election of Ishihara: A Symbol of Rising Nationalism in Japan?

Author:: Christopher P. Hood
Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Ishihara Shintaro, known for his strong views particularly on Japan's relationship with the United States, became Governor of Tokyo on 11 April 1999. This paper considers the significance of his election, and whether it symbolizes a rise in nationalism in Japan.
Topic:: International Relations, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Israel, and Tokyo

7365. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 1999

Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.5 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the end of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

7366. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 1999

Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

7367. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 1999

Publication Date:: 10-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators have paused after strong growth early this year. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

7368. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 1999

Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in September. This report merits careful interpretation, but does not change general conclusions drawn from previous releases, which show the economy is in good health: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems must be monitored for future increases.
Topic:: Economics and Health
Political Geography:: United States

7369. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 1999

Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of 3.0 percent (annualized) in the 3rd quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems do not seem to be a problem yet.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

7370. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 1999

Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in July. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising in the 3rd quarter from the 1.8 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 2nd quarter. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems show inconsistent patterns of growth.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

7371. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 1999

Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising at a pace of 2.7 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999, compared to the advance estimate of GDP showing a 2.3 percent increase. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems are almost nonexistent.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

7372. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 1999

Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index held steady in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of over 2.5 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through the remainder of 1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

7373. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 1999

Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to activity continuing to rise at the start of the 2nd quarter of 1999, but at a pace that is much more modest than the 4.1 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 1st quarter. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least the 4th quarter of 1999. Evidence of cyclical imbalances from the lagging indicators—that might threaten the stability of the economy—is neither consistent nor convincing.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

7374. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 1999

Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.1 percent, and both the coincident and lagging indexes increased 0.2 percent in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators show aggregate economic activity growing at about a 3.25 percent annualized pace in the 1st quarter of 1999 (compared to a 4.5 percent increase in the advance estimate of GDP). The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion for at least six more months. Cyclical imbalances and related conditions are unlikely to jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

7375. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 1999

Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in February. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of about 3 percent (annualized) in the 1st quarter of 1999. The leading indicators show odds are high that the expansion will continue through at least late-1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

7376. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 1999

Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show generally healthy conditions: The coincident indicators show that, although industrial production fell slightly, the first quarter of 1999 started on a positive note. The leading indicators are almost unanimous in predicting continued growth through at least the middle of the year. Signs of cyclical imbalances and other factors that might jeopardize the economy's stability remain relatively subdued.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

7377. Japanese Entrepreneurship: Can the Silicon Valley Model Be Applied to Japan?

Author:: Katsuhiro Nakagawa
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Since 1992, the Japanese economy has been utterly stagnant, with signs of weak performance at every turn. Since 1997, Japan's economy has experienced negative growth, a situation unprecedented in the postwar era. Most large Japanese corporations have engaged in extensive restructuring during this period, which has in turn contributed to 4.8 percent unemployment—higher than rates in the United States. Further, in 1998, the closure rate of small companies (3.8 percent) exceeded the start-up rate of new business ventures (3.7 percent).
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and Asia

7378. Accessing Venture Capital in India

Author:: Rafiq Dossani
Publication Date:: 10-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: In the 1970s, IT exports from India began with “body-shopping,” also known as contract programming. In such contracts, the amount of code was specified in the contract and there was relatively little risk. Until 1991, this was the main form of IT exports, and it was per- formed exclusively by Indian firms. Foreign firms were deliberately excluded as a matter of government policy. It was a difficult business environment. Indian firms that were exporting bodies, as well as firms that operated only in the domestic market, found themselves operat- ing in a closed economy, featuring high tariffs on hardware imports and non-tariff barriers on software imports. Quite by accident, this situation led to a growth of skills that would be of great value to India a few years later. India's UNIX talents, now globally in demand due to the growth of the Internet, developed because the country's closed economy forced Indian computer makers to develop their own hardware and software design skills. Sridhar Mitta noted that, in 1983, the United States used an Intel 386 microprocessor as the base for a simple personal computer, whereas India employed the same microprocessor with the UNIX operating system to power mainframes that controlled large enterprises. India's closed environment also spurred the country's IT industry to develop advanced skills in system design, architecture, protocol stacks, compilers, device drivers, and boards.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, India, and Asia

7379. Assessing U.S. Bilateral Security Alliances in the Asia Pacific's "Southern Rim": Why the San Francisco System Endures

Author:: William T. Tow
Publication Date:: 10-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: At the turn of the century, the United States' postwar alliance network remains a key component of its international security policy. That policy is fundamentally based on maintaining military superiority over current and potential rivals in the Eurasian landmass.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Eurasia, Asia, and San Francisco

7380. Containment by Stealth: Chinese Views of and Policies toward America's Alliances with Japan and Korea after the Cold War

Author:: Yu Bin
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: At the height of the Cold War, the dominant Western theories of alliance building in interstate relations argued that alliances tend to be motivated more by an external need to confront a clearly defined common adversary than by the domestic attributes of alliance partners. The newly reinvigorated U.S.-Japan alliance, however, together with the newly expanded NATO, seems to depart from the conventional pattern by emphasizing shared democratic values and by maintaining a high degree of ambiguity regarding the goals and targets of the alliance. Although these new features of American-led military alliances provide an anchor in an other- wise highly fluid situation in the post–Cold War world, many Chinese foreign-and defense-policy analysts believe that U.S. alliances with Asian countries, particularly with Japan, pose a serious, long-term challenge, if not a threat, to China's national security, national unification, and modernization. The ambiguity of the revised U.S.-Japan security alliance means that it is at best searching for targets and at worst aiming at China.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Asia, and Korea

7381. Crisis and Aftermath: The Prospects for Institutional Change in Japan

Author:: Rafiq Dossani
Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Impelled in large part by the nearly decade-long stagnation of the Japanese economy, institutions in Japan are undergoing fundamental changes. When Professors Masahiko Aoki, of the Stanford University Department of Economics, and Henry Rowen, director of the Asia/Pacific Research Center, were talking about these changes, they realized that an international conference on the subject would be useful and informative. With funding from the Asia/ Pacific Research Center and the Institute for International Studies, a distinguished group of speakers, commentators, and participants was brought together for a one-day conference to look at institutional changes in three distinct sectors of Japanese society: the political system, the bureaucracy, and corporations.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and Asia

7382. Nesting the Alliances in the Emerging Context of Asia-Pacific Multilateral Processes: A U.S. Perspective

Author:: Douglas Paal
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: As Americans consider their options for protecting and advancing their interests in Asia in the twenty-first century, it is natural that there will be wide-ranging views and vigorous debate. Recent events such as the 1996 Taiwan crisis, the Asian economic meltdown in 1997, and the exchange of state visits by presidents Bill Clinton and Jiang Zemin in 1997 and 1998 have intensified, then moderated and redirected, much of the debate over a very short span of time. Two years ago, for example, the Chinese were worrying aloud about American efforts to “encircle” China. Now they talk about “building a constructive strategic partnership with the U.S.” Despite these ups and downs, however, the fundamental choices for the United States have remained largely the same.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, Taiwan, and Asia

7383. When Realism and Liberalism Coincide: Russian Views of U.S. Alliances in Asia

Author:: Andrew C. Kuchins and Alexei V. Zagorsky
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Contemporary discussions of virtually any aspect of Russian foreign and security policy must take as their point of departure the extraordinarily weakened condition of the Russian Federation. There is no comparable case of such a rapid and dramatic decline in the status of a great power during peacetime in modern history. The Russian economy has been in a virtual free fall for most of the 1990s. The World Bank estimated the Russian GNP in 1997, using fixed exchange rates not adjusted for purchasing power parity, at $403.5 billion, making Russia the twelfth-largest economy in the world, just ahead of the Netherlands and just behind South Korea. Russian per capita GNP of $2,740 ranked fifty-first in the world and was in the category of “low middle” income countries. In 1997 the Russian GNP was about 5 percent of that of the United States, 8 percent adjusted for purchasing power parity. The figures for 1998 will be even starker given the devaluation of the ruble to approximately 30 percent of its 1997 value and continuing overall economic decline. A back-of-the-envelope calculation would have Russian GNP at the end of 1998 at no more than $120 billion and per capita GNP at less than $1,000.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Asia, South Korea, and Netherlands

7384. Adjusting America's Two Alliances in East Asia: A Japanese View

Author:: Takashi Inoguchi
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The alliances of the United States in East Asia are in a process of profound change (Okimoto 1998). The treaties with Japan and Korea are undergoing distinctive metamorphoses. These changes are the result of a number of forces that unfolded over the decades of the twentieth century, most notably the Cold War, globalization, and democratization (Inoguchi 1993, 1995; and Archibugi, Held, and Koehler 1996).
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, America, East Asia, and Asia

7385. Changing Relations between Party, Military, and Government in North Korea and Their Impact on Policy Direction

Author:: Jinwook Choi
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: North Korea has recently exhibited some noteworthy changes. In September 1998 it amended its constitution to change the power structure and introduced a number of progressive clauses. It also began to use the slogan “A Strong and Prosperous Nation,” which emphasizes economic prosperity as well as political, ideological, and military strength.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Asia, and Latin America

7386. China and the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Korea Alliances in a Changing Northeast Asia

Author:: Chu Shulong
Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The American security alliances with Japan and South Korea have been a major concern of China's foreign and defense policies. China's position toward the alliances is determined by its foreign policy and security theories, doctrines, and principles; by its approach to a regional security mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region; by its bilateral relations with countries in Northeast Asia; and by incidental issues such as territorial disputes in Asia in which it is involved.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Korea

7387. New Estimates of the United States - China Trade Balances

Author:: Lawrence J. Lau and K.C. Fung
Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The United States and China have vastly different official estimates of the bilateral trade imbalance. The U.S. figures show that the United States had a merchandise trade deficit of US$57 billion vis-à-vis China in 1998 whereas the Chinese figures show that China had a merchandise trade surplus of only US$21 billion vis-à-vis the United States. There is a difference of US$36 billion. Which set of figures is right?
Topic:: International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

7388. Seoul Domestic Policy and the Korean-American Alliance

Author:: B.C. Koh
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: While domestic politics helps to shape foreign policy, the two do not necessarily covary. That is to say, fundamental change in the former may not always trigger corresponding change in the latter. This is especially true of an alliance relationship, for a shared perception of an external threat that helps to sustain such a relationship is frequently unaffected by domestic political change.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, America, Asia, and Korea

7389. Japan-ROK Security Relations: An American Perspective

Author:: Michael J. Green
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This monograph explores contemporary Japan-ROK security relations from the perspective of U.S. strategic interests in Asia. Japan and the Republic of Korea have been aligned but not allied since the beginning of the Cold War, and the United States has long been frustrated in its desire to strengthen the Japan-ROK leg of its network of bilateral alliances in Asia. The United States abandoned the goal of encouraging a formal U.S.-Japan-ROK alliance early on in the Cold War, and in the current strategic environment a trilateral alliance would probably be counterproductive. At the same time, however, the fluidity of East Asian security relations today has heightened the dangers of leaving the Japan-ROK security relationship in an ambiguous state. Closer Japan-ROK security cooperation will enhance U.S. efforts to maintain forward presence, manage diplomacy and potential crises on the Korean Peninsula, and integrate China as a cooperative partner in the region. In contrast, distant Japan-ROK relations would complicate all of these U.S. objectives. Hostile Japan-ROK relations, particularly in the context of Korean reunification, would have a spillover effect on Sino-U.S. relations and could return the region to the great-power rivalry of the last century.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Korea

7390. The Korean-American Alliance and the "Rise of China": A Preliminary Assessment of Perceptual Changes and Strategic Choices

Author:: Jae Ho Chung
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Does history repeat itself? It appears so for Korea as an unfortunate geopolitical pawn of its stronger neighbors for the last century or so. History does not seem to repeat in quite the same way, however. As Chinese diplomat Huang Zunxian recommended in 1880 that Chosun (Korea's official designation during the Yi Dynasty) “side with the Qing” ( qinzhong ) while relegating the relative importance of Japan and the United States to the levels of “aligning and connecting” ( jieri and lianmei ), respectively, Korea remained for the most part the most loyal subsystem of the Sinic world order, thereby missing out on opportunities for self-strengthening and realignment and eventually becoming a Japanese colony. More than a hundred years later, the Republic of Korea (hereafter Korea) may now be about to confront a similar dilemma, but this time with a reversed order of preferences. That is to say, the rise of China, with which Korea has already accomplished diplomatic normalization, may gradually force the Seoul government to reconfigure its Cold War–based strategic thinking and reassess its half-century alliance relationship with the United States.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Korea

7391. Asian Alliances and American Politics

Author:: Michael H. Armacost
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The domestic politics of our Asian alliances is like the story of the dog that didn't bark. Though our defense ties with Japan and Korea were forged in the Cold War, nearly ten years after the Berlin Wall came down, few voices are being raised to amend, let alone terminate, either the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with Japan or the U.S.-Korea Mutual Defense Treaty. Although large numbers of U.S. troops remain in both countries, congressional criticisms of allied “free riding” are rarely heard. Our alliances with Japan and Korea provoke little discernible opposition from the Congress, the press, or the general public. Polling data suggests that public support for the alliances and for forward deployments in both countries remains high. And no prominent leaders of the Congress are threatening to link security concerns to outstanding economic issues with the Japanese or South Koreans—a tactic frequently utilized a decade ago.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Asia, and Korea

7392. Show of Force: The PLA and the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis

Author:: Andrew Scobell
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: China conducted a series of military exercises and missile tests in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait between July 1995 and March 1996. On July 18, 1995, Beijing announced that missile tests would be conducted targeting an area some 90 miles off the coast of northern Taiwan. Then, on three consecutive days, July 21, 22, and 23, a total of six DF-15 missiles were launched from sites in Fujian province—two per day. The following month, after a five-day advance warning, PLA naval vessels and aircraft conducted ten days of live-fire tests off the coast of Fujian. Further military exercises were conducted in mid-November to the south of the Strait, including joint operations involving air, land, and naval arms of the PLA. On March 5, 1996, Beijing announced it would soon begin another round of missile tests. This time they were to be targeted at seas less than fifty miles from Taiwan's busiest ports. On March 8, three DF-15 missiles were fired from bases in Fujian. Five days later, another DF-15 missile was launched. Finally, also after advanced warning, live-fire tests and war games were conducted off the coast of Fujian to the north of the Strait and to the south of the Strait between March 12 and March 25. The maneuvers included amphibious landing exercises and aerial bombing. Some forty naval vessels, two hundred and sixty aircraft, and an estimated 150,000 troops participated.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, China, Taiwan, Beijing, and Asia

7393. The Internet and Global Telecommunications: Exploring the Boundaries of International Coordination

Author:: Michael J. Kleeman
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The Internet is a driving force in global communications and commerce; as such, issues related to its governance and growth have broad implications that reach beyond those of traditional telecommunications services or networks. Unlike prior communications networks that carried primarily voice traffic, the Internet collects and distributes content and facilitates global and local/national commerce— which raises two types of questions: What purposes does the network serve for users? What barriers prevent or constrain such use?
Topic:: Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

7394. Toward Sustainable Competition in Global Telecommunications: From Principle to Practice

Author:: William J. Drake
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: Many observers consider 1998 to be a watershed year in the evolution of the global telecommunications industry. This view is based on the fact that two major changes in the international policy landscape have begun to clear away many longstanding barriers to competition in global networks and services.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

7395. Media Madness: The Revolution So Far

Author:: David Bollier and Max Frankel
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: Henry, for that generous introduction. I am proud to bear the title of Catto Fellow and if I were allowed to recite your biography as you have recited mine, you would know the source of my great pride. But like Harry Evans in a similar recent situation, (and now also his wife, Tina Brown), I am reminded of the New Yorker cartoon showing a partygoer being introduced at a cocktail party while enduring the urgent plea of a spouse: “Tell them who you WERE, dear. Tell them who you WERE!” I have to emphasize who I once was not only because I have retired from executive duties but also because the Revolution that I have come to discuss often regards me as passé, out of date, an expiring person of print—you know, that dying industry. That may be so. But the revolutionary “new” media are exhausting themselves parading their newness while actually betraying highly familiar symptoms of a very old media disease. We are all mad: just not newly mad.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and New York

7396. The Global Wave of Entrepreneurialism: Harnessing the Synergies of Personal Initiative, Digital Technologies, and Global Commerce

Author:: David Bollier
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: Future historians may call this period the entrepreneurial age. Rarely has such an explosion of new business ventures, technological innovation, and cultural experimentation swept across diverse cultures of the globe simultaneously. Government leaders in Beijing and Singapore, Warsaw and Caracas, Moscow and London are looking to business mavericks to energize their economies. Multinational companies are eager to instill entrepreneurial values within their workforces to boost their competitiveness. On the periphery of such power centers, meanwhile, entrepreneurs large and small are remaking entire sectors of the economy and creating high-tech boomtowns in San Jose, California; Bangalore, India; Cambridge, England; Austin, Texas; and many other places.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States, India, London, California, Moscow, England, Singapore, Bangalore, Austin, and Texas

7397. Information Literacy: Advancing Opportunities for Learning in the Digital Age

Author:: Richard P. Adler
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The foregoing paraphrase of Dickens was how one participant in the Aspen Institute's 1998 Forum on Communications and Society (FOCAS) summed up the current state and impact of the Internet. On one hand, the Internet has provided more people with more convenient access to more information in a shorter period of time than any other medium in history. It has given rise to an enormous burst of entrepreneurial activity that has led to the creation of an entire new industry in just a few years. Electronic commerce already is a multibillion dollar enterprise and will become even more important in the near future.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

7398. Reinventing The Climate Negotiations: An Analysis of COP6

Author:: Christian Egenhofer and Jan Cornillie
Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: With the cancellation of the Oslo ministerial mini-summit, the prospects for an early entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol are rapidly fading. Even if the US agrees to an outcome at a resumed COPbis in July, continued Congressional opposition and unresolved questions concerning the developing countries' commitments make US ratification highly implausible.
Topic:: Environment, International Law, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

7399. The First Weeks of the Eurosystem: An Initial Assessment and a Look Forward

Author:: Karel Lannoo
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: With the successful launch of the euro, the start of ESCB monetary policy operations and the operation of Target payment system, the previously national interbank bank markets have been integrated at once in a unified euro interbank market. Outstanding public debt was redenominated in euro, trading conventions harmonised and all EMU stock markets have started quoting in euro. This does not, however, bring us at once to a US-style capital market. Euroland remains profoundly different from the US in the weight of the regions and the importance of banks.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

7400. Iraq's Transition: On a Knife Edge

Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The situation in Iraq is more precarious than at any time since the April 2003 ouster of the Baathist regime, largely reflecting the Coalition's inability to establish a legitimate and representative political transition process. The broad plan sketched out by UN Special Adviser Lakhdar Brahimi, the apparent willingness of the U.S. to delegate at least some political responsibility to the UN and the decision to loosen the de-Baathification decree are all steps in the right direction. But critical questions remain both unanswered and, in some cases, unasked.
Topic:: Demographics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Eastern Europe, and United Nations

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS