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7251. The Paradox of Free Market Democracy: Indonesia and the Problems Facing Neoliberal Reform

Author:
Amy L. Chua
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
This paper will situate the recent problems in Indonesia in a more general framework that I will call the paradox of free-market democracy. The basic thesis I will advance is as follows. In Indonesia, as in many developing countries, class and ethnicity overlap in a distinctive and potentially explosive way: namely, in the form of a starkly economically dominant ethnic minority—here, the Sino-Indonesians. In such circumstances, contrary to conventional wisdom, markets and democracy may not be mutually reinforcing. On the contrary, the combined pursuit of marketization and democratization in Indonesia may catalyze ethnic tensions in highly determinate and predictable ways, with potentially very serious consequences, including the subversion of markets and democracy themselves. The principal challenge for neoliberal reform in Indonesia will be to find institutions capable of grappling with the problems of rapid democratization in the face of pervasive poverty, ethnic division, and an historically resented, market-dominant “outsider” minority.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and East Asia

7252. China, Nuclear Weapons, and Arms Control: A Preliminary Assessment

Author:
Robert A. Manning, Ronald Montaperto, and Brad Roberts
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Historically, U.S. nuclear strategists and arms control experts have paid little attention to the People's Republic of China (PRC). China has not been a major factor in the U.S. nuclear calculus, which has remained centered on U.S.-Russian nuclear arsenals as the principal framework for arms control and arms reductions. Yet today China is the only one of the five de jure nuclear weapons states qualitatively and quantitatively expanding its nuclear arsenal.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Asia

7253. The United States, Japan, and China: Setting the Course

Author:
Neil E. Silver
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The political dynamics of China-Japan relations have changed in reaction to three events: the demise of bipolar world politics, China's ''rise,'' and Japan's unexpected economic stall. These changed political dynamics have brought important challenges and consequences for the United States.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

7254. Humanitarian Intervention: Crafting a Workable Doctrine

Author:
Alton Frye
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
During the more than forty years of the Cold War when we faced direct military threats to our national security and other vital interests, U.S. forces were employed with great rarity and even greater caution. Ironically, in the decade following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have threatened and used military force with increasing frequency in what has come to be called “armed humanitarian intervention.” Had we yielded to all of the calls for help, we would have committed our military forces even more often.
Political Geography:
United States

7255. Future Visions for U.S. Defense Policy : Four Alternatives Presented as Presidential Speeches

Author:
John Hillen and Lawrence Korb
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, our defense policy has been formulated on an ad hoc basis without a clear underpinning. This piecemeal way of doing things has caused problems and frustrations both at home and abroad. Our Congress, military, allies, adversaries, and potential adversaries are confused about the lack of consistency. You and your opponents expressed similar concerns during the campaign.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
United States

7256. The International Trade of Multinational Firms: The Empirical Behaviour of Intrafirm Trade in a Gravity Equation Model

Author:
Kimberly A. Clausing
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Multinational firms are an increasingly important part of international economic integration. In recent years, foreign direct investment has been increasing at a rate that exceeds both the rate of growth of international trade and that of income. For many countries, the sales of affiliates of multinational firms have long dwarfed the value of trade. For example, in 1997, European Union country firms exported $283 billion in products to the United States. In the same year, affiliates of E.U.-based multinational firms sold $816 billion worth of products in the United States, almost three times the value of exports.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

7257. Consumer Credit in the European Union

Author:
Nuria Diez Guardia
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This report analyses the European consumer credit markets and their regulation at European level. Its findings are as follows: European consumer credit markets are characterised by deep national differences and strong market segmentation. The report finds no generalised model of consumer credit from the analysis of statistical data. An Anglo-Saxon consumer credit model cannot be identified. The weight of consumer credit is far higher in the US economy than in the EU countries, including the UK. In the US, the share of consumer loans made by banks is much lower, securitisation of consumer credit assets is very developed and the share of revolving credit is much greater than in the EU countries. Nor is it possible, on account of the large differences in the use of consumer credit observed across EU countries, to identify a European model of consumer credit. Consumer credit is very widely used in Sweden, whereas it is underdeveloped in Greece and Italy. The use of consumer credit reaches comparatively high levels in Germany and the UK and an intermediate level in France and Spain. Lending to consumers is carried out through bank intermediation, crossborder provision is non-existent.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Greece, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

7258. Bosnia's November Elections: Dayton Stumbles

Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Despite five years and five billion US dollars of international community investment in Bosnia, the 11 November Bosnian elections demonstrated once again that international engagement has failed to provide a sustainable basis for a functioning state, capable of surviving an international withdrawal.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Bosnia, and Eastern Europe

7259. Transatlantic Issues in Electronic Commerce

Author:
Catherine L. Mann
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The global and dynamic e-commerce marketplace will increasingly impact the nature of national and international economic and government relations. This paper highlights three areas where the United States and European Union (EU) governments differ in their approaches as to how best to serve their domestic constituencies: treatment of trade flows, approach to tax regimes, manner of protecting personal data. Because the Internet marketplace is global but policy jurisdictions remain local, policy conflicts can develop. Policymakers on both sides need to harness technology and promote incentives for the private sector to help solve problems caused by the jurisdictional overlap. In addition to cross-border jurisdictional overlap, problems within a country can develop from issue convergence and policy overlap. That is, because the e-commerce marketplace is so integrated, the policy toward handling one issue, even within the national context, has implications for the policy set that is available to policymakers on other issues. Therefore, policies within a country must be more carefully meshed with each other with an eye toward consistency in the face of the forces of electronic commerce..
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

7260. Inflation, Monetary Transparency, and G3 Exchange Rate Volatility

Author:
Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Short-term volatility in G3 bilateral exchange rates has been a fact of life since the beginning of the post-Bretton Woods float. It has been established, surprisingly, that this volatility is not only disproportionately large relative to the variation in relative macroeconomic fundamentals of Germany, Japan, and the United States, but is in fact largely unrelated to them. The apparent disconnect between fundamentals and dollar-yen and dollar-euro exchange rate fluctuations has led to perennial complaints about persistent exchange rate “misalignments,” and their real effects on the G3 (and other) economies, giving rise in turn to recurring proposals for government policies to limit this volatility. The idea that volatility reflects nothing more than the (perhaps rational, certainly profit-seeking) behavior of foreign exchange traders seems to give justification for a policy response. Yet, the disjunction between macroeconomic expectations and the volatility seems to indicate as well that some deviation from domestic monetary policy goals would be necessary to intervene against exchange rate swings.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Germany