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252. Should We Worry About Corporate Leverage?
- Author:
- Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
- Abstract:
- There has been a large increase in corporate leverage in many countries since the early 2000s. Figure 1 plots corporate debt to GDP since 2002 for different groups of countries. With the exception of the U.S., both advanced economies and emerging markets have corporate debt exceeding GDP since 2005. U.S. corporate debt is also on an increasing trend. The fastest growth in corporate debt has been observed in emerging markets. A closer look will reveal that China and other fast growing emerging countries in Asia drive most of the increase in corporate debt for the emerging markets.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Markets, Regulation, Multinational Corporations, and Economic Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
253. A World Dividing: The International Implications of the Sino-American Rift
- Author:
- Chas W. Freeman Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration has declared economic war on China. The United States has raised taxes on Chinese imports to levels not seen since the Smoot–Hawley tariffs of the Great Depression. Over the course of this year, Chinese imports of American goods have decreased by 26.4 percent, while China’s exports to the United States are down 10.7 percent. Washington has embargoed exports to China of a constantly expanding list of high-tech manufactures. It seeks to block Chinese telecommunications companies from third-country markets. The United States has mounted a vigorous campaign to persuade other countries to reject Chinese investments in their infrastructure, notably in the case of 5G telecommunications networks.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Global Political Economy, Trade Wars, International Community, and Exports
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and Global Focus
254. Enough Toxic Militarism
- Author:
- Nikhil Pal Singh
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- I teach college students at New York University’s campus on Washington Square in Manhattan and in its prison program in upstate New York. My students have never lived in a time when the United States was not at war. Growing up after the Vietnam War, when the United States had converted to an all-volunteer military, the great majority of my N.Y.U. students have not served in uniform, although the military is more likely to be a stop on the itinerary, or part of family experience, for those who end up in prison. For most of them, the wars in which U.S. soldiers and support personnel have been engaged on three continents for the past two decades retain a hazy, distant, and amorphous character; this perception is also typical now among civilian noncombatants. That the consequences of war-fighting remain seemingly remote ironically reinforces war as a natural and unchanging backdrop to social life in the United States today. We are overdue for a major cost accounting and reappraisal of these permanent wars.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Domestic Politics, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- United States
255. The U.S.-South Korea Alliance: Toward a Relationship of Equals
- Author:
- Jessica J. Lee
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- President Trump contends that “very rich and wealthy countries” like the Republic of Korea should pay more for American troops stationed in their countries. While a more balanced burden-sharing arrangement is necessary, the U.S.’s demand for a five-fold increase in South Korea’s contribution, from $924 million to $5 billion, threatens to tear apart the bilateral relationship and undermines U.S. interests on the Korean Peninsula. The issue demanding attention is not who pays how much, but whether the existing terms of the U.S.–ROK security relationship remain pertinent or must be revised. The long-term goal of U.S. grand strategy should be to facilitate the creation of a peaceful global order consisting of fully sovereign, law-abiding states capable of providing for their own security. Any state that hosts foreign forces and relies on those forces for its defense is not fully sovereign: It is dependent upon others to ensure its security. This describes the Republic of Korea today.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Liberal Order, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, and South Korea
256. On The Question Of Chinese Espionage
- Author:
- Nicholas Eftimiades
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- Throughout recorded history, nations have employed spies to support foreign policy goals and military operations. However, such clandestine activities seldom become the subject of foreign policy themselves, and intelligence and related activities are rarely subject to public review. Yet in the People’s Republic of China, a massive “whole-of-society” approach to economic espionage is creating a new paradigm for how nations conduct, view, and address intelligence func- tions. In fact, a key element in the United States-China trade war is Washington’s insistence that Beijing cease stealing American intellectual property and trade secrets. China denies the claim, but hundreds of recently prosecuted espionage cases prove otherwise. These espionage activities are changing the global balance of power, impacting U.S. and foreign economies, and providing challenges to domestic and national security, as well as foreign policy formulation. Domesti- cally, they threaten economic security, the protection of critical infrastructure, and intellectual property rights.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Law, and Espionage
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
257. Spies, Election Meddling, And Disinformation: Past And Present
- Author:
- Calder Walton
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- Spies, election meddling, disinformation, influence operations, data har- vesting: at present, it seems barely a moment passes without another intelligence scandal breaking on our news feeds. Following Russia’s “sweeping and systematic” attack on the 2016 U.S. presidential election—which was intended to support Moscow’s favored candidate, Donald J. Trump, and undermine his opponent, Hillary Clinton—the media frequently labeled the operation “unprecedented.” The social-media technologies that Russia deployed in its cyber-attack on the United States in 2016 were certainly new, but Russia’s strategy was far from unusual. In fact, the Kremlin has a long history of meddling in U.S. and other Western democratic elections and manufacturing disinformation to discredit and divide the West. Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, a former KGB officer, has reconstituted and updated the KGB’s old Cold War playbook for the new digital age. This paper, an exercise of applied history, has two aims: first, to understand the history of Soviet disinformation, and second, to make sense of Western efforts to counter it during the Cold War. Doing so provides policy-relevant conclusions from history about countering disinformation produced by Russia and other authoritarian regimes today.
- Topic:
- Elections, Cybersecurity, Democracy, Election watch, and Espionage
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Soviet Union
258. American Espionage: Lessons From History
- Author:
- Rhodri Jeffreys-Jones
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- This essay is a historical inquiry into the issue of the intelligence community’s standing—its prestige and credibility in the eyes of the executive, Congress, the press, and the public. Its premise is that the intelligence community needs a high reputation for both competence and morality to serve the best interest of national security.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Espionage
- Political Geography:
- United States
259. The Rising Tide of Change in Iraq: An Assessment of the 2018 and 2019 Protests
- Author:
- Hashim Al-Rikabi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The stability and legitimacy of the post-2003 Iraqi state are undermined by the provision of poor basic services, soaring unemployment, and political paralysis. This has driven ordinary citizens towards waves of protests that peaked in August 2018 and re-surged again in October 2019, demonstrating that without addressing the underlying causes behind these protests, much larger and more aggressive protest waves may shock the system, again and again, threatening its existence. The initial phase of the 2019 protests was similar to the first period of 2018 protests (April - June) in terms of their small scale, their focus on specific issues such as unemployment, and their largely peaceful nature. But quickly, within a few weeks, the 2019 protests escalated with protesters blocking key economic facilities and attacking government buildings and political parties’ headquarters. This escalation mirrored the trajectory of the 2018 which also intensified over time, but what is striking is the speed with which the 2019 intensified and moved from socio-economic focused demands to demands for fundamental political reforms, including new elections. While the involvement of political actors was evident in efforts by politicians, such as Muqtada Al-Sadr, to try to ride the wave of protests as well as the crackdown on protests by armed elements of certain political parties, the 2019 mobilization has also shown the emergence of a new generation of protesters and the rising role of new social actors, such as professional groups. The increasing frequency of protests since 2018 and their widening and deepening scope suggest that the post-2003 Iraqi governance model, with its stalemate between the different political actors, needs a fundamental new formulation that is able to renew trust in a reformed political system. The stalemate could either develop into genuine reforms to address the ills of the post-2003 political and economic system, away from ethno-sectarian politics, or descend into violence.
- Topic:
- Imperialism, Social Movement, Protests, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Baghdad
260. The Syrian State: A Two-Headed Monster is Emerging
- Author:
- Bassma Kodmani
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The Collapse of the Syrian state is largely a reality. Both Russia and Iran, Assad’s allies, know he is not the guarantor of the continuity of the state any more but continue to hold on to him to sign off on projects that consolidate their control. This paper argues that instead of a failed state, a two-headed system has emerged, with Iran and Russia each pushing for their own vision of the country.
- Topic:
- Imperialism, Fragile/Failed State, Authoritarianism, Military Intervention, and Repression
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, Middle East, Syria, and Damascus
261. Ethan Nadelmann: Paradigms For U.S. Drug Policy
- Author:
- Ethan Nadelmann
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- Described by Rolling Stone as “the point man” for drug policy reform efforts and “the real drug czar,” Ethan Nadelmann has played a leading role in drug policy reform efforts in the United States and globally since the late 1980s. His advocacy began while teaching politics and public affairs at Princeton University (1987–1994). He founded the drug policy institute, The Lindesmith Center, and later the Drug Policy Alliance (DPA), which he directed from 2000 until 2017. He also co-founded the Open Society Institute’s International Harm Reduction Development (IHRD) program.
- Topic:
- Crime, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, Domestic Politics, and Criminal Justice
- Political Geography:
- United States
262. Leadership And Policy-Making: Lessons From The U.S. Government
- Author:
- Prudence Bushnell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 6 April 1994, the airplane carrying the presidents of Rwanda and Bu- rundi was shot out of the sky over Kigali, Rwanda. Within hours of the crash, Rwanda’s fragile power-sharing agreement negotiated in the 1993 Arusha Peace Accords became history. Fighting erupted in the streets among forces of the Hutu-dominated Rwandan interim government military and the largely Tutsi Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF). Moderate members of the Hutu opposition and Tutsi political figures and citizens became the first targets for slaughter.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- United States, Rwanda, and Burundi
263. A Multicultural Nationalism?
- Author:
- Tariq Modood
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- Today’s “new nationalism” marks merely the latest iteration of yesterday’s old nationalism. I refer here to the majoritarian nationalism that seems to be the rising or dominant politics in many parts of the world today—Russia, China, India, the United States, many Muslim-majority countries, and central and eastern Europe. Yet, what is genuinely new is the identity-based nationalism of the center-left—sometimes called “liberal nationalism” or “progressive patriotism”—that is appearing in Anglophone countries. In a recent study covering Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, India, South Africa, and Peru, Raymond Taras expresses the novelty of his empirical fndings as a move toward “nationhood.” He sees this as “enlarging the nation so that it consists of difer- ent integrated ethnic parts” and describes it as “a characteristically British way of viewing a political society.”2 I present here a view that falls into this category, which I shall call “multicultural nationalism.”3 I argue that multiculturalism is a mode of integration that does not just emphasize the centrality of minor- ity group identities, but rather proves incomplete without the re-making of national identity so that all citizens have a sense of belonging. In this respect, multiculturalist approaches to national belonging have some relation to liberal nationalism and majoritarian interculturalism, making not only individual rights but, also minority accommodation a feature of acceptable nationalism. Unlike cosmopolitanism, multiculturalist approaches are nationally-focused and not against immigration controls (subject to certain conditions).
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Nationalism, Multiculturalism, Nation-State, and Secularism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and China
264. Affluence, Risk and Community Engagement: The Case of Ascon and Huntington Beach
- Author:
- David P. Adams, Meriem Doucette, and Justin Tucker
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the engagement and mobilization of an affluent community in relation to a known environmental hazard. It extends our understanding of individual responses to environmental risk and provides at least one response to the long-unanswered question: how would affluent communities respond to hazardous sites? Despite the contention that these resource-rich communities will respond differently than the less affluent communities that traditionally have these environmental hazards, we find no meaningful difference in their mobilization and engagement. Despite their perception of risk associated with the Ascon landfill in Huntington Beach and relatively little trust in government to clean up the site, the community is largely unwilling to engage in activities related to site cleanup. This is an important contribution to our understanding of what generates individual action for environmental hazards and compels us to re-examine our understanding of what (if any) role socio-economic status plays in an individual’s response.
- Topic:
- Environment, Health, and Public Health
- Political Geography:
- United States and California
265. Improving Transfer in California: Trial and Error in Statewide Reform and Local Implementation
- Author:
- Andrea Venezia and Su Jin Gatlin Jez
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- California’s community colleges play a wide range of crucial roles in providing educational opportunities for state residents, including providing transfer for students to four-year universities. Transfer students represent about half of each entering class in the California State University System (CSU) and almost one-third in the University of California. In 2010, California enacted legislation to streamline transfer from community college to the state’s four-year universities by creating a new transfer degree. It was implemented in 2012. This study examined how students experience policies and practices related to transfer from community college to California State University in the context of the new degree. Key findings reveal that, although there are improvements, capacity within the CSU and other factors have kept transfer complex and confusing for most transfer students. Major implications are that the state and systems need to continue to simplify the transfer process and strengthen supports for students.
- Topic:
- Education and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States and California
266. Transitory Legality: The Health Implication of Ending DACA
- Author:
- Marie L. Mallet and Lisa Garcia Bedolla
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the effects of the rescission announcement of the DACA program on the health outcomes of Latino DACA recipients in California. Research shows that undocumented immigrants face poorer health outcomes than their documented counterparts and U.S. citizens, and that being offered legal status (e.g. DACA) considerably improves their health outcomes. Even though studies have examined the impact of shifting legal status on incorporation, to our knowledge no studies have considered the effects of announcing the rescission of the DACA program on its recipients. However, this is important because it may have implications on their health outcomes. This study addresses this gap by using in-depth interviews with 43 Latino DACA recipients living in the California San Francisco Bay Area in 2017 and 2018. Our findings suggest that rescission announcement of DACA has led to worsening health outcomes for DACA recipients. Specifically, we find that it created what we call a state of transitory legality among the 1.5 generation, which causes DACA recipients to experience health outcomes that are worse than those before DACA. Our results are important in the field of sociology, public policy and heath care because they show the negative effects of reversing inclusionary immigration policies on the health outcomes of undocumented Latino immigrants.
- Topic:
- Health, Immigration, Citizenship, Immigrants, and Public Health
- Political Geography:
- United States and California
267. Examining Racist Nativist Microagressions on DACAmented College Students in the Trump Era
- Author:
- Valerie Gomez and Lindsay Perez Huber
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Within public discourses of immigration, immigrant Communities of Color are increasingly targeted by expressions of racist nativism—a form of racism that has historically targeted Latinx communities that is based upon real or perceived immigrant status that in turn, assigns a foreign identity that justifies subordinating practices and policies. Beginning with his presidential campaign, Donald Trump has advanced racist nativist discourse that framed undocumented Latinx immigrants as “invaders” and “criminals.” This paper examines how these discourses impact Latinx DACAmented college students through their experiences with racist nativist microaggressions within and beyond their college campuses. Findings indicate these students are targeted by this type of microaggression, shaped by the anti-immigrant and anti-Latinx political discourses that the Trump administration advocates. Analysis of 10 in-depth interviews with Latinx DACAmented college students reveals that as a result of Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric, students are becoming more fearful and uncertain of their future. Even still, we found students felt empowered to resist this racism, remain resilient, and maintain a sense of hope.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Immigrants, and Far Right
- Political Geography:
- United States and California
268. Exploring Undocumented Students' Understandings of the Role of Higher Education during the Trump Era
- Author:
- Karina Santellano
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Law pertaining to immigrants is conceptualized as legal violence (Menjívar and Abrego 2012). Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) is an executive policy with an uncertain future under the Trump administration. In California, many DACA beneficiaries are students at public colleges and universities. This paper conceptualizes DACA as another form of legal violence and draws from 30 in-depth interviews with undocumented students to explore the ways in which undocumented students believe the role of their college/university is to mitigate the legal violence stemming from the liminality of DACA. Some participants believe their colleges/universities should provide safety, specifically via the designation of sanctuary campus status for its symbolic importance, others believe their colleges have a responsibility beyond intellectualism sharing they should be progressive leaders against xenophobia, while others expressed cynicism, describing institutions of higher education as corporations interested in their brand rather than in being immigrant rights advocates on behalf of their students. This study serves as a way for institutions of higher education to learn how undocumented students perceive their roles and duties. At the end of this paper, the author suggests how colleges and universities can work towards mitigating legal violence in the lives of undocumented students.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Immigration, Law, Immigrants, and Higher Education
- Political Geography:
- United States and California
269. DACA, DAPA, and Discretionary Executive Power: Immigrants Outside the Law
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- In June 2012, President Barack Obama announced the creation of DACA, a program which instructed executive branch officials to exercise their administrative discretion to defer the deportation of eligible applicants. Two years later, in November 2014, President Obama announced the DAPA program, which expanded DACA and extended this exercise of discretion to parents of U.S. citizens or permanent residents. Both announcements were met by controversy. Critics charged that, by altering the legal regime from one in which undocumented immigrants were to be deported to one of “executive amnesty,” President Obama exceeded his authority, turning him into an “emperor” or a “king.” The President’s supporters insisted, rather, that President Obama was acting fully within his executive authority. Understanding this debate requires one both to delve into the complicated legal context, and to look beyond legal doctrine. The controversy reflected broader concerns about discretionary executive power and the law, linked to anxiety regarding the sovereign’s head of state as “he who decides on the state of exception.” It also derived from specific concerns about President Obama as the embodiment of the sovereign: his racialized body, depicted as illegitimate and foreign, furthered the perception of his policies as illegal. Lastly, the fact that undocumented immigrants are not perceived as members of the body politic helped to produce this vision of DACA and DAPA as lawless action. In this telling, the sovereign actor, the beneficiaries of his action, and the act itself were all cast as illegitimate through a mutually reinforcing logic; all were exceptions that stood “outside the law.”
- Topic:
- Race, Immigration, Law, Citizenship, and Immigrants
- Political Geography:
- United States and California
270. Alaska: Arctic Groundhog Day
- Author:
- Glenn Wright and Tasha Elizarde
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Since the early 1980s, Alaska has relied on oil taxes for almost all of its state government revenue. Like many resource-based economies, including many of the Western states, the result is a boom and bust economy. With production declining and the price of Alaska’s North Slope crude around $75 per barrel, the state is in a bust cycle, with a large state government deficit. Although Alaska is experiencing a somewhat improved revenue outlook compared to 2017, the state’s executive and legislative branches continue to wrestle with unpopular political choices; do we implement a state income tax, tap the state’s Permanent Fund sovereign wealth fund (and thereby reduce or eliminate Alaska’s annual Permanent Fund Dividend payment to Alaskan residents), or some combination of those two approaches? In Spring 2018, the Alaska State Legislature—supported by Independent Governor Bill Walker—chose the first of these options, tapping Alaska’s Permanent Fund to fund state government operations for the first time. The result is a dramatically improved fiscal position for 2019, and although the state remains in deficit, chances of a balanced budget are much improved. Use of the Permanent Fund has not been popular, however; a number of incumbents who supported the use Permanent Fund earnings were defeated in November 2018 by opponents who campaigned on the issue. At the moment, Alaska’s fiscal future remains in doubt.
- Topic:
- Governance, Budget, Economic Policy, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Alaska
271. Arizona: #RedforEd -- Governor Ducey Forced to Invest in Education
- Author:
- David Wells
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- The FY2019 budget saw the country’s largest movement of teachers descend on the state capital and force Governor Doug Ducey to scramble to save his re-election prospects. Gradually growing through social media, the #RedforEd movement culminated with 50,000 teachers and supporters walking out of classrooms and descending onto the Capitol grounds. Gov. Ducey deftly rose to the occasion from his initial one percent raise to a 20 percent raise by FY2021 before the walkout commenced, moving the pressure to legislators to seal the deal, which they did on May 3, 2018. Stronger revenue growth than prior years enabled the governor and Legislature to find the necessary funds.
- Topic:
- Education, Fiscal Policy, and State Funding
- Political Geography:
- United States and Arizona
272. California: Brown's Last Budget Hurrah
- Author:
- Brian DiSarro and Wesley Hussey
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- California passed a 2018‒2019 budget with record budget surpluses as the state attention shifted to the upcoming 2018 election. This was Jerry Brown’s final budget after sixteen years as governor, a state record. Brown was concerned the state’s volatile income tax revenues might not hold up during a future recession and wanted to store as much of the surplus away in the state’s emergency “rainy-day” fund. Continuing the annual pattern, Democratic legislators wanted to spend some of the surplus on social services, including the increasing problems of homelessness and affordable housing. In addition, legislators began to address the long-ignored problem of sexual harassment in the capitol and was on the front line of the #MeToo movement, leading several legislators to resign. Democrats did well in the November elections, leading to an even bluer California.
- Topic:
- Governance, Budget, and State Funding
- Political Geography:
- United States and California
273. Hawaii: Priced Out of Paradise
- Author:
- Colin D. Moore
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Hawaii adopted a state budget that authorizes $14.3 billion in spending for FY2019. The Aloha State’s economy continues to benefit from record-breaking tourist numbers and robust federal military spending. Although the state’s unemployment rate is among the lowest ever recorded for any state in the nation, the cost of housing has made it increasingly difficult for working families to purchase a home. Tax revenues are strong, but they remain very dependent on the tourism industry. Hawaii also faces huge liabilities for pension and health care payments that are promised to retired state employees.
- Topic:
- Governance, Health Care Policy, Budget, and State Funding
- Political Geography:
- United States and California
274. New Mexico: The Lost Decade
- Author:
- Kim Seckler
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- In January 2018, the New Mexico State Legislature convened for its regular session, a thirty day budget session, per its constitutional mandate. Thirty days later the legislative session ended quietly and the state of New Mexico closed the book on the great recession and a decade of financial and political strife. The 2018 legislature passed a $6.38 billion dollar budget, re-supplied dangerously low general fund reserves, and provided small raises to teachers and state employees. Oil and gas revenues are up, unemployment is slowly coming down and legislative-executive political battles have muted. The balanced budget, signed by the governor in early March, brings the state back to where it began almost 10 years before, leading one observer to refer to the time as the “lost decade in New Mexico” (Cole 2018).
- Topic:
- Governance, Budget, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and New Mexico
275. Oregon: Progressive Agenda, Yet Facing Great Fiscal Risks
- Author:
- Mark Henkels and Brent S. Steel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- The 2018 midterm elections strengthened the Democrats’ control of Oregon’s state government. Governor Kate Brown won re-election with 50percent of the vote defeating moderate Republican Knute Buehler with 46.6percent of the vote. Democrats also increased their seats in both the House and Senate, leading to super majorities in both houses. Governor Brown and the Democrats in Salem have taken fairly strong progressive policy stances in 2017 and 2018, particularly opposing President Trump’s immigration and marijuana policies, reinforcing the West Coast carbon-reduction pattern, and strongly supporting health care coverage expansion. With a booming economy and unemployment at record lows, the state seems to be able to deliver on its progressive agenda for the 2017-19 biennium, but funding progressive policies in the future will be a challenge for the governor for a variety of reasons. The fate of this progressive vision depends on five elements: (1) the continuation of the favorable economy and the corresponding revenue growth in the approaching budget cycle; (2) the ability to manage the ongoing taxing and spending structures that include major obligations for the Public Employees Retirement System (PERS); (3) the constraints of ongoing dependency on income taxes; (4) the vicissitudes of Trump era politics and policy with declining federal funds; and (5) continued public support for expansive public policies.
- Topic:
- Governance, Domestic Politics, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Oregon
276. Washington: Education, Carbon, and Taxes Oh My!
- Author:
- Erin Richards, Michael Artime, and Francis Benjamin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- As a state that overwhelmingly relies on sales tax revenue, Washington benefitted from a strong economy in 2018. However, that revenue was necessary as the state faced a court ordered deadline to fully fund K-12 education, and a need to address transportation, mental health, and a capital budget held over from the 2017 session. This is all in addition to creating a new Department of Children, Youth and Families. The state government was under unified government for the first time since 2012 which may have contributed to the state completing its work in a supplemental budget year on time and adjourning by the March deadline.
- Topic:
- Budget, Tax Systems, and Economic Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Washington
277. Gossip, Corporate Reputation, and the 1905 Life Insurance Scandal in New York
- Author:
- Oenone Kubie, Rebecca Orr, Mara Keire, and Christopher McKenna
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- Oxford Centre for Global History
- Abstract:
- On the evening of 31 January 1905, six hundred of the richest and most powerful members of New York society descended on Sherry’s Hotel dressed in extravagant costumes designed to resemble the court of the French King, Louis XV. The wealth on display was astounding. Pearls, emeralds, turquoise, and diamonds abounded. Mrs Potter Palmer, the queen of Chicago society, appeared dressed in a diamond tiara, diamond choker, and diamond breastplates. Mrs Clarence Mackay, wife of the chairman of the Postal Telegraph Company and a suffragist, wore a gold and turquoise crown and the train of her dress was so long, that despite the help of her two pages, she was forced to sit out the dancing.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, History, Capitalism, and Multinational Corporations
- Political Geography:
- United States, New York, France, and Global Focus
278. The Hudson's Bay Company: Royal Charters, Rivalries and Luxury Hats in the North American Fur Trade
- Author:
- Jason Saldanha, James Haworth, and Christopher McKenna
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- Oxford Centre for Global History
- Abstract:
- French fur traders Médard Chouart des Groseilliers and Pierre-Esprit Radisson sensed an opportunity in the mid-1650s. During their travels within a North American trade network stretching from Montreal to the Great Lakes, the pair had heard rumours from indigenous Cree communities of a “frozen sea”: a region rich in beaver furs further to the north. The resourceful traders, aware of the European demand for luxury felt hats made from these furs, set out to explore. The two traders were not disappointed upon their arrival at the vast inland sea of Hudson Bay, discovering an abundance of high-quality furs. They quickly identified numerous rivers running from the basin that offered valuable access to the continent’s interior: if a shipping route could be forged from these locations, across the Atlantic and finally to European markets, the Hudson Bay region could re-centre the entire North American fur trade. After failing to obtain French support to establish a trading post in the area – and getting arrested upon their return to Montreal for trading without a licence – Des Groseilliers and Radisson found themselves courting English favour for their venture.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, History, Capitalism, Commodities, and Trade Liberalization
- Political Geography:
- United States, New York, Canada, Quebec City, and Global Focus
279. The Boom and the Busts: Mendocino County's Agricultural Revolution
- Author:
- Charlie Harris and Christopher McKenna
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- Oxford Centre for Global History
- Abstract:
- California’s Mendocino County is a single-industry economy. Arriving in the sixties, marijuana cultivation gained a momentum in Mendocino that local government eventually began perceive as unstoppable, filling an economic void once occupied by lumber and fishing. Remote, permissive, boasting near-perfect outdoor growing conditions and conveniently situated between San Francisco and Portland, Oregon – two cities with something of a reputation for the consumption (and nationwide distribution) of marijuana. This convergence of assets, along with the benefit of timing, have led Mendocino County to draw growers – whether seasoned professionals or hopeful amateurs – from all over the world.
- Topic:
- Economics, History, Capitalism, Economic Growth, and Economic Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and California
280. Weary Warriors: Power Knowledge and the Invisible Wounds of Soldiers
- Author:
- Pamela Moss and Michael J. Prince
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Berghahn Books
- Abstract:
- As seen in military documents, medical journals, novels, films, television shows, and memoirs, soldiers’ invisible wounds are not innate cracks in individual psyches that break under the stress of war. Instead, the generation of weary warriors is caught up in wider social and political networks and institutions—families, activist groups, government bureaucracies, welfare state programs—mediated through a military hierarchy, psychiatry rooted in mind-body sciences, and various cultural constructs of masculinity. This book offers a history of military psychiatry from the American Civil War to the latest Afghanistan conflict. The authors trace the effects of power and knowledge in relation to the emotional and psychological trauma that shapes soldiers’ bodies, minds, and souls, developing an extensive account of the emergence, diagnosis, and treatment of soldiers’ invisible wounds.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Psychology, Trauma, Masculinity, and PTSD
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Vietnam
281. Defending Europe: scenario-based capability requirements for NATO’s European members
- Author:
- Ben Barry, Douglas Barrie, Lucie béraud-Sudreau, Henry Boyd, Nick Childs, and Bastain Giegerich
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Institute for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The study applies scenario analysis – with scenarios set in the early 2020s – to generate force requirements, and assesses the ability of NATO’s European member states to meet these requirements based on data from the IISS Military Balance Plus online database. The cost of closing the identified capability shortfalls through equipment acquisition has been estimated. The objective of the study is to enable informed policy dialogue both in Europe and in a transatlantic setting. The study explicitly does not intend to predict future conflicts nor the intentions of any of the actors involved. Neither does it wish to prescribe a certain path of action to be pursued by European NATO governments. The first scenario examined deals with the protection of the global sea lines of communication (SLOCs). In this scenario, the United States has withdrawn from NATO and has also abandoned its role of providing global maritime presence and protection, not just for its own national interest but also as an international public good. It thus falls to European countries to achieve and sustain a stable maritime-security environment in European waters and beyond, to enable the free flow of international maritime trade, and to protect global maritime infrastructure. The IISS assesses that European NATO members would have to invest between US$94 billion and US$110bn to fill the capability gaps generated by this scenario. The second scenario deals with the defence of European NATO territory against a state-level military attack. In this scenario, tensions between Russia and NATO members Lithuania and Poland escalate into war after the US has left NATO. This war results in the Russian occupation of Lithuania and some Polish territory seized by Russia. Invoking Article V, the European members of NATO direct the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) to plan Operation Eastern Shield to reassure Estonia, Latvia and Poland, and other front-line NATO member states, by deterring further Russian aggression. European NATO also prepares and assembles forces for Operation Eastern Storm, a military operation to restore Polish and Lithuanian government control over their territories.
- Topic:
- NATO, Military Strategy, Maritime, and Free Trade
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Europe
282. China Global Security Tracker, No.5
- Author:
- Helena Legarda
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Institute for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Presenting China as a 'responsible power' – Beijing releases first major defense white paper in four years
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Military Spending
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Europe, Canada, Taiwan, France, and North America
283. Advancing UK maritime aviation in the Queen Elizabeth-class era
- Author:
- Nick Childs
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Institute for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The United Kingdom is on the cusp of regenerating what is a transformational capability. The first of the UK’s new-generation aircraft carriers, HMS Queen Elizabeth, has been at sea on trials for two years, and is working up towards its first operational deployment in 2021. The second ship, HMS Prince of Wales, is scheduled to be accepted into service before the end of the year. The F-35B Lightning II has achieved initial land-based operating capability and the Lightning Force has carried out its first overseas deployment, Lightning Dawn. Maritime aviation in the round has undergone a significant transformation, and there has been a substantial increased focus on collaboration and partnering with industry as well as developing stronger links with critical allies. To underscore the significance of the undertaking, then secretary of state for defence Penny Mordaunt announced on 15 May 2019 that the UK planned to produce a National Aircraft Carrier Policy to lay down a blueprint for how the new carrier era would help deliver the UK’s global objectives. In addition, on 4 June, then prime minister Theresa May announced that the UK would earmark the Queen Elizabeth-class carriers to form part of NATO’s significant new Readiness Initiative. These developments have prompted thought and discussion on the extent to which the carrier programme will enable and actually drive the transformation of UK joint-force capabilities, and are posing questions about the demands such a programme will place on UK defence and industry. This paper considers both the opportunities and challenges that the carrier era presents in a number of key areas
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, Military Strategy, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and London
284. European security in crisis: what to expect if the US withdraws from NATO
- Author:
- Lianna Fix, Bastain Giegerich, and Theresa Kirch
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Institute for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Recent developments in transatlantic relations have reignited the debate about the need for Europeans to assume greater responsibility for their own security. Yet, efforts by European leaders to substantiate the general commitment to 'take their fate into their own hands' are so far lacking sufficient progress. Against this backdrop, the Körber Policy Game brought together a high-level group of senior experts and government officials from France, Germany, Poland, the UK and the US to address a fictional scenario that involves a US withdrawal from NATO, followed by multiple crises in Europe. How will Europeans organise their security and defence if the US withdraws from NATO? To what extent will future European security be based on mutual solidarity, ad-hoc coalitions or a bilateralisation of relations with the US? Which interests would the respective European governments regard as vital and non-negotiable? What role would the US play in European security after the withdrawal? The Körber Policy Game is based on the idea of projecting current foreign and security policy trends into a future scenario – seeking to develop a deeper understanding of the interests and priorities of different actors as well as possible policy options. The starting point is a short to medium-term scenario. Participants are part of country teams and assume the role of advisers to their respective governments.
- Topic:
- NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, North Atlantic, North America, and Brussels
285. China and instability in developing countries
- Author:
- Nicholas Crawford
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Institute for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- China has become the largest lender to developing countries, and a major investor there too. As a result, it has a major stake in many countries facing political and economic instability. Western policymakers involved in responding to instability and crises overseas need to understand how China navigates these situations. China’s approach is similar in some respects to that of Western states, but there are also important differences. China’s policy towards countries facing political and economic instability is driven by four main concerns: It seeks to strengthen and maintain its partnerships with those countries to ensure they remain open to and supportive of the Chinese government and its businesses. China is determined to protect its financial interests, businesses and citizens from the harms that result from instability. It is concerned to see its loans repaid, its investments secure, its workers safe and its supply chains undisrupted. It wants to maintain its narrative of non-interference. Any intervention in the politics or policies of its partner states must be seen as being at the invitation of their governments (although China may pressure its partners for consent). China wants to increase its influence in the world, independently and distinctively. It is increasingly proactive in its response to instability in partner countries. Some responses seek to address the instability directly; other responses are intended to protect Chinese interests in spite of the instability. This paper analyses the political economy of China’s responses to instability, identifies the types of responses China undertakes, and assesses these responses.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Cooperation, Developing World, Political stability, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, China, Europe, Beijing, and Asia
286. India, The United States, Australia and the Difficult Birth of Bangladesh
- Author:
- Ric Smith
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Ric Smith has masterfully woven archival material, memories of his own time as a foreign service officer, and conversations with other officers of the then Department of Foreign Affairs to recount the crisis in East Pakistan in 1971 and the difficult birth of Bangladesh. Smith highlights the Cold War incongruities of the crisis, including the Soviet Union’s support for democratic India’s position during the crisis, while the United States supported the military regime in Pakistan. The episode also stands as an example of Canberra diverging from Washington on an issue that was garnering political and media attention in Australia. Australia was able to pursue a policy toward the region that was independent from the United States, accepting early that East Pakistan was “finished” and that there was a need to address an unfolding humanitarian crisis. Smith’s book imparts important lessons about diplomacy for Australia: It is not only possible for Australia’s politicians and diplomats to take independent positions on major international problems, but they are sometimes respected by their allies when they do so.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Human Rights, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, Europe, India, Asia, Soviet Union, and Australia
287. End U.S. Military Support for the Saudi-Led War in Yemen
- Author:
- Enea Gjoza and Benjamin H. Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The Yemeni Civil War is in its fourth year, and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and their allies are not close to a victory over the Houthi rebels.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Military Spending, Military Intervention, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and North Africa
288. Disentangling from Syria's Civil War
- Author:
- Benjamin H. Friedman and Justin Logan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The United States intervened in Syria’s civil war in two ways: (1) anti-Assad efforts—through aid to rebels to help foster regime change and with airpower, troops and support to a militia—and (2) anti-ISIS efforts—through aid to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to destroy the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate. The first mission was an ill-considered failure, the second a success.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Military Intervention, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, and Syria
289. Exiting Afghanistan: Ending America's Longest War
- Author:
- Benjamin H. Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The war in Afghanistan—now America’s longest at nearly 18 years—quickly achieved its initial aims: (1) to destroy the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization and (2) to punish the Taliban government that gave it haven. However, Washington extended the mission to a long and futile effort of building up the Afghan state to defeat the subsequent Taliban insurgency.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, War, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Asia
290. Counting the Cost of Financial Warfare: Recalibrating Sanctions Policy to Preserve U.S. Financial Hegemony
- Author:
- Enea Gjoza
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The American economy, dollar, and banking system create unparalleled power for the U.S. in the global financial system. This power provides disproportionate influence over the world’s key economic and financial institutions, regulatory authority over major foreign companies and banks, and allows borrowing on favorable terms and in dollars, enabling long-term deficit spending.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Sanctions, Finance, and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
291. A Russian View of the U.S. INF Withdrawal
- Author:
- Victor Esin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- The stabilizing role of the INF Treaty is still relevant. Its importance has even increased against the background of the sharp deterioration of relations between Russia and the West in recent years due to the well-known events in Ukraine, aggravated by mutual sanctions and NATO’s military build-up near Russian borders. Preserving the INF Treaty, which has now become the subject of controversy and mutual non-compliance accusations between Russia and the United States, is therefore doubly important.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Nonproliferation, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Europe
292. North Korea’s Shift to Diplomacy in 2018: A Result of U.S. Pressure or North Korean Security Calculus?
- Author:
- Naoko Aoki
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- After conducting a record number of missile and nuclear tests in 2016 and 2017, North Korea dramatically changed its policy approach and embarked on a diplomatic initiative in 2018. It announced a self-imposed halt on missile and nuclear tests and held summit meetings with the United States, China, and South Korea from spring of that year. Why did North Korea shift its policy approach? This paper evaluates four alternative explanations. The first is that the change was driven by North Korea’s security calculus. In other words, North Korea planned to achieve its security goals first before turning to diplomacy and successfully followed through with this plan. The second is that U.S. military threats forced North Korea to change its course. The third is that U.S.-led sanctions caused North Korea to shift its policy by increasing economic pain on the country. The fourth is that diplomatic initiatives by South Korea and others prompted North Korea to change its position. This paper examines the actions and statements of the United States, North Korea, China, South Korea, and Russia leading up to and during this period to assess these four explanations. It concludes that military threats and economic pain did not dissuade North Korea from obtaining what it considered an adequate level of nuclear deterrence against the United States and that North Korea turned to diplomacy only after achieving its security goals. External pressure may have encouraged North Korea to speed up its efforts to develop the capacity to strike the United States with a nuclear-armed missile, the opposite of its intended effect. Diplomatic and economic pressure may have compelled Kim Jong Un to declare that North Korea had achieved its “state nuclear force” before conducting all the nuclear and ballistic missile tests needed to be fully confident that it could hit targets in the continental United States. These findings suggest that if a pressure campaign against North Korea is to achieve its intended impact, the United States has to more carefully consider how pressure would interact with North Korean policy priorities. Pressure should be applied only to pursue specific achievable goals and should be frequently assessed for its impact.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Nonproliferation, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
293. China on Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Strategic Stability
- Author:
- Nancy Gallagher
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- China and the United States view each other as potential adversaries with mixed motives and divergent value systems, yet both can benefit from cooperation to reduce the risk of war, avert arms races, and prevent proliferation or terrorist access to weapons of mass destruction. The two countries have more common interests, fewer ideological differences, and greater economic interdependence than the United States and the Soviet Union had during the Cold War. In principle, arms control broadly defined, i.e., cooperation to reduce the likelihood of war, the level of destruction should war occur, the cost of military preparations, and the role of threats and use of force in international relations, could be at least as important in this century as it was in the last. In practice, though, China’s rise as a strategic power has not been matched by a corresponding increase in the kinds of cooperative agreements that helped keep the costs and risks of superpower competition from spiraling out of control. Why not? This paper argues that because China’s strategy rests on different assumptions about security and nuclear deterrence than U.S. strategy does, its ideas about arms control are different, too. China has historically put more value on broad declarations of intent, behavioral rules, and self-control, while the United States has prioritized specific quantitative limits on capabilities, detailed verification and compliance mechanisms, and operational transparency. When progress has occurred, it has not been because China finally matched the United States in some military capability, or because Chinese officials and experts “learned” to think about arms control like their American counterparts do. Rather, it has happened when Chinese leaders believed that the United States and other countries with nuclear weapons were moving toward its ideas about security cooperation--hopes that have repeatedly been disappointed. Understanding Chinese attitudes toward security cooperation has gained added importance under the Trump administration for two reasons. Trump’s national security strategy depicts China and Russia as equally capable antagonists facing the United States in a “new era of great power competition,” so the feasibility and desirability of mutually beneficial cooperation with China have become more urgent questions. The costs and risks of coercive competition will keep growing until both sides accept that they outweigh whatever benefits might accrue from trying to maximize power and freedom of action in a tightly interconnected world.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Nonproliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Taiwan, and Asia
294. Do as I Say, and as I Do: Chinese Leadership in Nuclear Security
- Author:
- Sara Z. Kutchesfahani
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes China’s words and actions regarding the Nuclear Security Summits to better understand what Chinese leadership on nuclear security could look like in the future. It finds that China accomplished the many things it said it would do during the summit process. The paper also explores how China’s policy and actions in other nuclear arenas could be paired with Chinese nuclear security policy to form a coherent agenda for nuclear risk reduction writ large. Consequently, the paper addresses how China doing as it says and does – per nuclear security – may be used as a way in which to inform its future nuclear security roles and responsibilities. In particular, it assesses China’s opportunities to assume a leadership role within this crucial international security issue area, especially at a time where U.S. leadership has waned.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Beijing, and Asia
295. Reconstructing Iraq: Where Do We Stand
- Author:
- Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- This month last year, the Kuwaiti government hosted a ‘Conference for the Reconstruction of Iraq’. It was attended by the United Nations Secretary General, António Guterres, along with dozens of foreign ministers and large numbers of other government and business representatives. The timing was perfect for Iraq. The country had recently announced the military defeat of the Islamic State (IS) and was enjoying an unprecedented level of optimism and all-round international good will. Until then, Iraq had for a number of years been suffering from a severe economic crisis, precipitated largely by decades of poor management of state resources, never-ending wars and crises, and the drop in oil prices. Hence, the country needed help and, luckily for the Iraqis, its neighbours were willing to help because failure to address reconstruction needs would add to the country’s fragility and chronic instability.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Military Strategy, Reconstruction, and Islamic State
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Kurdistan
296. Iran-US tension and the Ghost of War
- Author:
- Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- The latest tension between Iran and the United States has created an unhealthy debate among local actors in Iraq and the wider Middle East, reflecting minimal insight into Washington or Tehran’s policy environment. This in itself can be extremely detrimental to their own national agenda as well as the overall dynamics. The question here is: where is this US-Iran escalation leading and what policy would be best for the local players in Iraq (and elsewhere) to pursue?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Imperialism, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Tehran, Washington, and D.C.
297. International Support for State-building in Iraq
- Author:
- Middle East Research Institute
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- In his introduction, panel chairman Farhad Alaaldin explained that Iraq is in a state of crisis. The current socio-political situation, as reflected by demonstrations and protests across the various governorates, is both complicated and complex. He explained that this panel, featuring central players from the international community, would examine the contours of this crisis and solicit external perspectives.
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Political stability, Protests, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Baghdad
298. The Real Solution: Regional Response Rather than Border Closures, Mass Incarceration, and Refugee Returns Share
- Author:
- Eleanor Acer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- The Trump Administration has purposefully mismanaged the refugee and humanitarian challenges pushing people to flee political repression, human rights abuses, economic deprivation, and climate displacement in Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Trump Administration policies have actually made things worse, cutting programs countering displacement, turning a blind eye to human rights abuses, encouraging crossings between official ports of entry, and punishing people seeking U.S. protection through punitive and traumatizing family separations and detention. These harmful policies have aggravated humanitarian challenges—deliberately provoking disorder, chaos, and confusion. Congress must take swift action to push real solutions, and over the longer term the next administration will need to ensure these solutions are enduring. Congress should champion a new initiative to strengthen protection across the region. This initiative must truly tackle the rights abuses and deprivations pushing people to flee, greatly enhance the capacity of Mexico and other countries to provide asylum and host refugees, and set a strong example at home by upholding America’s own refugee protection commitments. Upholding human rights commitments is not only the right thing to do, it is also in the U.S. national interest. These commitments have saved millions of lives and encourage countries around the world—including front-line countries that host the vast majority of the world’s refugees—to continue hosting refugees. The heroic work of many Americans—working and volunteering with faith-based shelters, community groups, legal representation, and other organizations—should be supported. They are, and always have been, an essential part of the solution. The measures outlined below would restore order to the region and the U.S. border while upholding the United States’ legal and humanitarian commitments. Key steps include: 1. Address the actual causes of displacement in Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. The United States should increase support for effective programs that counter violence, strengthen justice systems, spur economic opportunities, and safeguard communities from climate displacement, so that people do not need to flee in search of safety or survival. In addition, U.S. diplomats must press the leaders of these countries to safeguard rights, support anti-corruption efforts, and address abuses from security forces. 2. Strongly support increased asylum and refugee-hosting capacity in Mexico and other Latin American countries, so that these countries—which are already hosting growing numbers—have the ability to continue accepting refugees. Asylum filings in Mexico, for example, have increased by over 700 percent since 2014. The United States should sharply increase support for the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) to increase regional capacity, to develop strong asylum and refugee protection systems, and to better integrate refugees in Mexico and the region. U.S. diplomacy, law enforcement cooperation, and rule of law assistance should be leveraged to reduce violence against refugees and migrants in Mexico. In addition, the United States should launch a regional resettlement effort, providing some refugees with routes to safety in the United States as well as other countries, and relaunch the Central American Minors (CAM) program to allow some children with family in the United States to come to our country safely. 3. Combat smuggling in the region while safeguarding access to protection. U.S. agencies must ensure anti-smuggling and anti-trafficking efforts do not block escape from dangerous countries and include measures to safeguard human rights and access to asylum. By strengthening asylum, resettlement, and work visas in the region, more refugees and migrants will have alternate routes to protection. 4. Manage U.S. asylum arrivals effectively through a genuine humanitarian response that upholds U.S. law and provides order, including: Restore timely and orderly asylum processing at ports of entry and ensure humane conditions at all Department of Homeland Security (DHS) facilities; End the Remain in Mexico scheme and “metering” policies that push people to cross between ports of entry and put the lives of asylum seekers at risk as they wait in danger in Mexico; Support and fund NGOs and shelters in the United States—including faith-based groups that have been effectively partnering with DHS in U.S. cities along the border—to address humanitarian needs, a typical and necessary move in managing refugee arrivals; and Launch a community-based case management program that supports appearance, as recommended by ICE’s own advisory group, rather than jailing asylum seekers for even longer. 5. Restore order through measures providing timely, fair, and effective U.S. adjudications, including: Increase, rather than “get rid of,” immigration judges and interpreters. In order to understand what is being said in their courtrooms and ensure due process, judges must be supported by interpreters. And, since a judge set on furthering a politicized agenda is worse than no judge at all, safeguards against politicized court hiring must be immediately restored. Additional measures to support judges include: increased recruitment of interpreters who speak indigenous dialects to assure accurate hearings and prevent continued adjournments, ensuring the time necessary to gather evidence to prove cases, and rejecting absurd schemes that would entrust protection determinations to border agents or rush cases through adjudications; Support a major legal representation initiative to ensure eligible refugees receive protection at the earliest stages of the process and institute universal legal orientation presentations (LOPs)—including for families released from DHS/Customs and Border Protection (CBP) custody—to explain appearance obligations, the legal system, and how to secure counsel; Enable more cases to be granted efficiently at the USCIS asylum office by providing initial decision-making authority to the asylum office in all asylum cases, changing policies and practices that have prompted asylum officers to refer, rather than grant, cases that meet the asylum criteria— unnecessarily adding them to the immigration court caseload—and assure the availability of an application process for “cancellation of removal” relief so these cases do not clog the asylum system; Make the immigration courts independent, as the American Bar Association recommends, to secure due process and judicial independence, ensuring that political appointees can no longer attempt to improperly influence the courts’ decisions in asylum and other cases; and Reverse Trump Administration efforts to prevent refugees from receiving asylum in the United States—including former Attorney General Sessions’ ruling attempting to deny protection to women who have fled domestic violence and families escaping from deadly gangs. The measures outlined above would restore order and bring about real and enduring solutions. As the president and top Trump Administration officials are doubling down on punitive policies and political rhetoric that fail to solve these challenges, Congress must demand effective strategies that are consistent with America’s ideals.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Prisons/Penal Systems, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- United States, Central America, North America, Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador
299. Protecting Refugees and Restoring Order: Real Solutions to the Humanitarian Crisis
- Author:
- Eleanor Acer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- Families and children from Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador—fleeing human rights abuses, deadly violence, climate displacement and economic deprivations—continue to seek refuge in the United States and other countries. This is a regional humanitarian crisis—a manageable one that should be addressed using proven strategies, as are humanitarian challenges around the world. Yet instead of taking the steps necessary to address the crisis, the Trump Administration is making things worse, threatening cuts to effective programs that could reduce the problems forcing people to flee, sending refugees back to danger, canceling rather than expanding case management, and cutting orderly processing at ports of entry, increasing crossings between ports of entry. The Trump Administration’s actions appear designed to generate chaos. The regional crisis requires real solutions in several key areas: tackling the rights abuses and deprivations pushing people to flee, enhancing the capacity of Mexico and other countries to provide asylum and host refugees, and managing U.S. refugee protection requests in fair, effective and orderly ways—ways that uphold America’s refugee laws and treaty commitments. Most immediately, the United States must end the dysfunction at the border by launching a public-private humanitarian initiative and a long overdue case management system, which would keep asylum seekers informed and ensure they appear for their hearings. At the same time, the U.S. government should fix the asylum and immigration court adjudication systems to provide fair, non-politicized, and timely decisions. To effectively manage border and adjudication systems, the United States must upgrade to manage new realities, instead of pushing mass detention and other outdated, inadequate and ineffective responses that are also costly, cruel, and inhumane. As part of this strategy, the United States should launch a major initiative, with other countries, to expand regional protection so that Mexico and others, which are already hosting growing numbers, have the ability to continue accepting refugees. Critically, the United States and other donors should increase support for efforts to build the capacity of these countries to provide asylum, host, protect, and integrate refugees. In addition, the United States should work with other resettlement countries to launch a robust regional initiative that provides orderly routes to protection in the United States and other third countries. The United States must also advance a targeted strategy—leveraging both diplomacy and aid - to address the actual root causes of migration and displacement in the Northern Triangle. This should focus on programs that reduce violence, combat corruption, strengthen rule of law, decrease femicide and other gender-based harms, address gang violence, protect vulnerable populations, and promote sustainable economic development. By helping to build real protections for women, children, LGBTQ, indigenous, and other at-risk people in Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador, while expanding protection of refugees in Mexico and other countries, this strategy will ultimately reduce the numbers fleeing to the United States. The measures outlined below would restore order to the region and the U.S. border while upholding U.S. legal and humanitarian commitments. Congress—and over the longer term, the next administration—must push real solutions.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Prisons/Penal Systems, Border Control, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- United States, Central America, North America, Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador
300. The Future of North America’s Economic Relationship: From NAFTA to the New Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement and Beyond
- Author:
- Meredith Lily, Hugo Perezcano, and Christine McDaniel
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) — known in the United States as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) — was reached on September 30, 2018, and will replace its predecessor if successfully ratified by legislatures in all three countries. Several weeks later, on October 14–16, 2018, thought leaders from Mexico, the United States and Canada gathered for the fourteenth annual North American Forum in Ottawa, Ontario. In light of these events, CIGI initiated a trilateral project to anticipate and predict how North American trade and economic relations would unfold in the near term and further into the future. Three authors, Christine McDaniel, Hugo Perezcano Díaz and Meredith Lilly, each from one of the North American countries, explain the importance of the new CUSMA to their respective countries and how economic relations could be reshaped in the coming months and years. Earlier versions of these papers were presented in a panel discussion at the North American Forum.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, NAFTA, and USMCA
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico