Political Geography: United Kingdom / Publication Year: within 25 Years and within 3 Years / Topic:

101. Shared fortunes: Why Britain, the European Union, and Africa need one another

Author:: Nicholas Westcott
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Britain and Africa are deeply connected through their history and people as much as through trade, investment, aid, and culture. They can both benefit greatly from this relationship – especially in areas where their interests converge, including economic development, security, education, and climate. But political forces on both sides could push them apart – even as, increasingly, Britain needs Africa more than Africa needs Britain. The British government and the EU need to understand the relationship in its geostrategic context – the influence of China, Russia, Gulf states, and others affects African countries’ views on their place in the world. A closer and more responsive relationship between Britain, Africa, and the EU would have significant benefits for all sides – partly because each is weaker individually than they are together, and because Britain still has strengths that are most useful in cooperation with others. But this will only be possible if the British government significantly changes its approach to Europe as well as to Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, United Kingdom, and Europe

102. Sign of the Times: How the United Kingdom’s Integrated Review Affects Relations with Africa

Author:: Zainab Usman and Jonathan Glennie
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: In March 2021, the British government published a vision document: “Global Britain in a Competitive Age: The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy.”1 Previously, the government had issued documents on security, defense, development, or foreign policy, but this integrated review bundled together all aspects of policy related to a vision of a so-called Global Britain. This newly integrated approach to policymaking mirrors a strategic consolidation within the UK government, specifically the merger of the Department for International Development (DFID) with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to become a new Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). While the review is framed as a necessary response to a changing global landscape, domestic political considerations around the British exit from the European Union (Brexit) weigh heavily. The review also points to the current UK government’s inclination to prize geopolitical competition over a previous emphasis on global cooperation. Steep cuts to the UK’s generous foreign aid budget as well as the abolition of DFID have already drawn significant academic, policy, and media attention. Yet these actions are part of a broader UK strategy to redefine the country’s relations to the rest of the world, with significant implications beyond the controversial foreign aid cuts for poor countries, including those in Africa. The review will shape relations with a continent that has deep historical ties from the colonial era, a large diasporic presence, and long-standing economic relations with the UK. This analysis draws out the implications of the UK’s 2021 integrated review for African countries and recommends next steps for African and other international stakeholders to navigate the UK’s overhauled external relations strategy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Development, and Integration
Political Geography:: Africa and United Kingdom

103. UK Must Engage with Argentina Over Future of Falkland Islands

Author:: Carole Concha Bell
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: For Argentina, it’s position in the decades-old dispute over the British Overseas Territory remains clear: Las Malvinas son Argentinas.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Argentina, South America, and Falkland Islands

104. What Next after the Death of Queen Elizabeth II?

Author:: Przemysław Biskup
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The death of Elizabeth II on 8 September closed her 70-year reign. In that time, the United Kingdom underwent deep transformation, including losing its colonial empire, as well as joining and later leaving European integration structures. The succession to the throne may contribute to a further weakening of the UK’s personal union with the 14 Commonwealth monarchies and the British role in this structure. The queen’s passing has also increased the risk of strengthening of separatist movements in Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Separatism, and Monarchy
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and British Commonwealth

105. AUKUS A Look Back at The First Analyses

Author:: David Santoro, Bruno Tertrais, Ashley Townshend, Brad Glosserman, and Robert Ayson
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Announced just over a year ago on Sept. 15, 2021, the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) security partnership promised work on two interrelated lines of effort between the three allies. One entailed providing Australia with a conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarine capability. The other involved cooperation on developing and providing joint advanced military capabilities to promote security and stability in the region, including in cyber, artificial intelligence and autonomy, quantum technologies, undersea capabilities, hypersonic and counter-hypersonic systems, electronic warfare, and information sharing. AUKUS sent shockwaves across the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Some praised the new partnership, explaining that it would tighten the US hub-and-spokes alliance system and stand as a powerful deterrent to China’s new assertiveness in the region. Others¾with the People’s Republic of China in the lead¾were much less enthusiastic, even outright critical, insisting that it would create unnecessary tensions, possibly leading to arms races or crises, and undermine nonproliferation norms and rules. France was also deeply upset because AUKUS immediately led to Australia’s cancellation of a French-Australian submarine deal, without notice. In the days, weeks, and months that followed the AUKUS announcement, the Pacific Forum published, via its PacNet Commentary series, several preliminary analyses on the trilateral partnership, each reflecting a specific national perspective from throughout the Indo-Pacific and beyond. One year later, and as implementation of the AUKUS partnership remains ongoing, we have compiled these analyses into a Pacific Forum Issues & Insights volume. It is our hope that these publications will provide a basis for further study and additional recommendations.
Topic:: Partnerships, Multilateral Relations, AUKUS, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

106. A Reliable Global Cyber Power: Cyberspace and Germany’s National Security Strategy

Author:: Valentin Weber
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Germany’s major allies have declared their roles in shaping cyberspace. The United States sees itself as a democratic, values-driven cyber power ready to impose substantial costs on adversaries engaged in nefarious conduct. The United Kingdom strives to be a responsible cyber power that eschews reckless behavior. France aims to operate as a stabilizing power that counters a destructive Russia and other malicious actors. But what kind of cyber power is Germany to be? As it draws up its first national security strategy, the country can rectify its lack of vision and narrative for its domestic and international cyberspace efforts. This policy brief proposes that Germany espouse a sober focus on reliability that links its cyberspace strategy to those of its allies, thereby providing a vital anchor for Western cybersecurity. To do this, Germany should:
Topic:: National Security, Science and Technology, Strategic Stability, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany

107. Dealing with the Neighbours: The case for an affiliate membership of the European Union and a new Security Council

Author:: Andrew Duff
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Brexit is proving to be even more troublesome than expected, giving rise to a gradual softening of British public opinion towards the EU. Any future UK government is likely to want to renegotiate parts of the separation deal that Boris Johnson struck with the EU. Reconciliation between Britain and Europe will take time and need careful calibration, however. The EU should prepare for this constructively and use the opportunity of a British renegotiation to review all its other association agreements - none of which are without defect. The question of governance lies at the heart of the problems which impair the EU’s relations with its neighbours. The EEA and Swiss arrangements are in any case due for overhaul and upgrading. The EU’s traditional enlargement policy to the east and south has foundered, and it would be better if this were admitted openly. Not only are candidate countries unable to meet the demands of membership, but the EU itself is too weak to take on the burden of new members. Instead, a new category of affiliate membership should be written into the EU treaties. Affiliation should allow the EU to develop close economic and cultural partnerships with its neighbours in a democratic fashion. Affiliate states would enjoy greater access to the EU institutions than is permitted under any of the current association agreements. Affiliate membership would also be available as an option for any current EU member state which, like the UK, chose not to adhere to the goal of an ever closer union. Such differentiated integration of the wider Europe will require the EU to build stronger federal government at the centre. The new structure should also be underpinned by the establishment of a European Security Council combining EU member and affiliate states with NATO — including Canada and the US — in regular strategic and operational decisions to protect Western security. The French presidency in the first half of 2022 should take the necessary first steps. The Conference on the Future of Europe might consider these proposals.
Topic:: Security, Governance, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

108. Brexit and Beyond: the union

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Tensions about the relationships between the UK’s component parts have never been too far from the surface during the political crisis triggered by Brexit. The question of what happens to powers that were formerly exercised at the EU level, but which fall within devolved competence, has been a recurrent source of disagreement between the UK Government and the devolved administrations. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and the union.
Topic:: European Union, Brexit, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

109. Brexit and Beyond: politics

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: How politics in the UK develops over the coming months and years will depend at least in part on the degree to which its focus moves on from Brexit. This mini report on politics taken from our Brexit and Beyond report makes clear, politics will be about far more than inter party competition.
Topic:: European Union, Brexit, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Competition
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

110. Brexit and Beyond: policy

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and policy looking at a wide range of policy areas including immigration, social care, cyber security and manufacturing.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Immigration, Cybersecurity, Brexit, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

111. Brexit and Beyond: public opinion

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and its impact upon public opinion, from the growing division between British voters and the lasting importance of Remain and Leave identities, to the increasing salience of social values, Scotland’s appetite for independence, and the fluctuating importance of immigration to the British electorate.
Topic:: Politics, Immigration, Public Opinion, Brexit, Domestic Politics, and Society
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

112. Brexit and Beyond: economy

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and its consequences for the economy, from its impact upon inequality, employment, and public finances, to future prospects for British trade outside of the EU.
Topic:: European Union, Employment, Inequality, Economy, Brexit, Trade, and Public Finance
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

113. Freeports

Author:: Catherine Barnard
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Freeports will be the centrepiece of the Budget, presented as a concrete sign, especially to ‘left behind’ communities, both of the benefits of Brexit and the Government’s commitment to the ‘levelling up’ agenda. For those looking to create ‘Global Britain’, freeports send out a message: we’re open for business. In this report, Deputy Director Professor Catherine Barnard, Cambridge University examines both the rationale for them and the existing evidence on them. The report concludes that freeports are unlikely to be a magic bullet.
Topic:: Budget, European Union, Business, Brexit, and Freeports
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

114. Brexit and Beyond: government, law and external relations

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and its impact upon British governance and the constitutional makeup of the UK, and what Britain’s place in the world is set to look like outside of the European Union. This mini report is taken from the Brexit and Beyond report.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, Governance, Law, European Union, Constitution, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

115. Whitehall in Brussels: the UK permanent representation to the EU

Author:: Matthew Bevington
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: The UK has left the European Union but the two sides, as neighbours, partners and competitors, will need to continue to work with each other. How this happens matters. The report author, Matt Bevington, looks at how the UK interacted with the EU in the past, and what role the UK mission might play in those interactions going forward.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, European Union, Brexit, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

116. Comfortable leavers: the expectations and hopes of the overlooked Brexit voters

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: This briefing paper draws on workshops conducted by NatCen in summer 2020 with a group of voters we have labelled ‘Comfortable Leavers’. Often overlooked, in favour of narratives that have emphasised the role of the ‘left behind,’ we thought it important to understand what this sizeable part of the Leave vote thought about Brexit and hoped for the future of the country.
Topic:: Politics, Public Opinion, Brexit, Voting, and Society
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

117. The EU Settlement Scheme

Author:: Catherine Barnard and Fiona Costello
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: The EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) allows EU nationals who arrived by 31 December 2020 (and some others) to protect their rights to live and work in the UK. The aim of this report is to explain the scheme, its background, how it works, who has applied, who may not have, and the lessons we have learned so far.
Topic:: Border Control, European Union, Citizenship, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

118. EU-UK 2030

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Five years on from the EU referendum, we are still attempting to learn lessons and digest those we have learnt. In this country, the vast majority of attention has, unsurprisingly, focused on developments here – in parliament, in our constitutional settlement, and in the country as a whole. But how did the EU and its member states approach the Brexit process? What were their priorities in the lengthy negotiations? How did they view the UK, and what are their priorities for their relationship with it in the years ahead?
Topic:: European Union, Constitution, Brexit, Negotiation, and Referendum
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

119. Global Britain: views from abroad

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: ‘Global Britain’ is the term used to denote the UK’s approach to the world post-Brexit. The success of ‘Global Britain’ depends not simply on the energy and resources devoted to it by the UK Government but also on the participation of potential partners. To consider what these reactions might be, UK in a Changing Europe and the School of Security Studies at King’s College London consider perceptions of Global Britain across different states around the world in this new report.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Government, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

120. Covid or Brexit?

Author:: Anand Menon, Jonathan Portes, Alan Wager, Sarah Overton, and Joël Reland
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: The world is emerging from the COVID pandemic, with society and the economy opening up again. The immediate impact has been widespread supply and labour shortages, and rising inflation. But for the UK, the issue is not simply that of post-pandemic disruption, but also the early impacts of the decision to leave the European Union, replacing our membership of the Single Market and customs union with a minimal free trade deal. In what follows, we explore the extent to which current problems in the UK economy are down solely to post pandemic disruption or also the result of the altered terms of trade and labour mobility with the EU.
Topic:: Politics, Labor Issues, European Union, Brexit, Trade, COVID-19, and Society
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

121. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: The UK in a Changing Europe’s regulatory divergence tracker provides an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU standards. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence in regulatory standards between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. It forms the first of a series of trackers which will keep tabs on the latest developments in the regulatory divergence landscape.
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, Brexit, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

122. What do MPs think? expectations, issues and identities

Author:: Alan Wager and Paula Surridge
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: This briefing, authored by Dr Alan Wager, sets out where the House of Commons stands on key public policy issues facing the country and its expectations for the future. Drawing on a representative survey of Members of Parliament undertaken by Ipsos MORI between June and August 2021, it provides a pen portrait of opinion within the corridors of Westminster.
Topic:: Government, Politics, Brexit, Survey, Society, and Parliament
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

123. The impact of Brexit on UK services

Author:: Sarah Hall and Martin Heneghan
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: The service sector stands as a clear exemplar of the trade-offs entailed by Brexit. The emphasis placed by the government on reclaiming regulatory autonomy during the negotiations over the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), and the particular importance of ending freedom of movement had particularly serious consequences for those who import or export services. In this report, Sarah Hall, Senior Fellow at UK in a Changing Europe and Martin Heneghan, Research Fellow at the University of Nottingham explore the consequences to date of Brexit, and particularly of the TCA, for service providers.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Regulation, Economy, Brexit, Services, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

124. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: second edition

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: UK in a Changing Europe’s regulatory divergence tracker provides an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU standards. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence in regulatory standards between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the second edition of the tracker, covering changes which took place predominantly between September-December 2021.
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

125. Two Birds, One Budget: Using ODA for Influence and Development in the Indo-Pacific?

Author:: Rachael Calleja, Sam Hughes, and Beata Cichocka
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This paper explores the UK’s proposed “Indo-Pacific tilt” from a development perspective. In light of recent cuts to the UK’s official development assistance (ODA), we ask how the UK can use scarce development resources in the Indo-Pacific more effectively to capitalise on opportunities to support strategic objectives while ensuring that ODA remains squarely focused on development priorities. Our analysis seeks to understand both how the UK is positioned within the Indo-Pacific, which is an already-crowded development landscape, as well as where the UK’s strategic and developmental priorities in the region might meaningfully overlap. We find that while there are some opportunities for the UK to support both development objectives and strategic interests concurrently in the Indo-Pacific—such as in the provision of regional and global public goods—the countries with the greatest strategic value to the UK are not those where additional ODA could contribute most clearly to poverty reduction. We conclude the paper with six policy recommendations. Among others, we propose that the UK should consider partnering with other like-minded providers to maximise its presence in the region.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, and Influence
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Indo-Pacific

126. Facilitating Environmental Migration through Humanitarian and Labour Pathways: Recommendations for the UK Government

Author:: Helen Dempster, Amelia Dal Pra, and Mariam Traore Chazalnoel
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The impact of climate change, environmental degradation, and disasters on migration and human mobility is receiving more and more attention, by policymakers, academics, and the press alike. While there are gaps in the evidence base, much suggests that the vast majority of people will seek to move internally and regionally, rather than internationally. That being said, there are good reasons as to why high-income countries may want to facilitate so-called international “environmental migration” by adapting their existing legal and policy frameworks. This paper outlines how countries such as the United States of America (US), Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, and various European countries have explored, created, or adapted their legal and policy frameworks to explicitly respond to international environmental migration, and the lessons learned therein. It concludes with a series of policy recommendations for the government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) as to how the UK could adapt their own legal and policy frameworks to better respond to international environmental migration.
Topic:: Environment, Migration, Governance, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

127. Rethinking Humanitarian Reform: What Will it Take to Truly Change the System?

Author:: Patrick Saez, Jeremy Konyndyk, and Rose Worden
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This brief summarizes three years of research under the project, “Rethinking Humanitarian Reform,” led by Jeremy Konyndyk, Patrick Saez, and Rose Worden, and funded by the aid departments of the United Kingdom and Australia. The project aimed to understand the incentives behind the humanitarian system and shift them to better prioritize the needs of affected populations.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, Reform, and Institutionalism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Australia, and Global Focus

128. Strategic Risk Reduction between Nuclear-Weapons Possessors

Author:: Corentin Brustlein
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The topic of nuclear risk reduction has gained momentum in the international security debate among policymakers, nongovernmental organizations, and experts. The current and expected demise of the traditional arms-control architecture, the renewed strategic competition, and the polarization of the multilateral debate on nuclear weapons have contributed to this renewed salience. Building upon the 2019 G7 Statement on Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, this report defines strategic risk reduction as the set of unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral measures that aim at lowering the likelihood of nuclear weapons use through improved communication, predictability, and restraint, and underlines the need to adopt a strategic approach to nuclear risk reduction. Risks emanating from conflict dynamics between nuclear powers are different in nature and severity from those arising from technical incidents. This report argues that in a context of growing geopolitical rivalries, diplomats should prioritize mitigating the former type of risk. Risk reduction efforts should aim at hindering the most dangerous behaviors in crisis time, through measures focusing both on nuclear forces and on nonnuclear capabilities, whose impact on strategic balances keeps growing. Strategic risk reduction can strengthen international security and strategic stability by complementing arms control measures and deterrence policies. It is therefore crucial to ensure that diplomatic initiatives aimed at limiting nuclear risks do not ultimately, and paradoxically, increase the risk of war. Historical experience shows not only the feasibility of such an approach, but also the concrete security benefits that can be derived from it, by channeling the behavior of nuclear powers in times of tensions, reducing the ambiguity inherent in certain strategies and behaviors, or laying the foundations for international regimes based on operational and strategic restraint as well as on transparency.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, Deterrence, Strategic Stability, and Confidence Building Measures
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, China, United Kingdom, India, North Korea, France, and United States of America

129. Complementarity or Competition? Franco-British Cooperation and the European Horizon of French Defense Policy

Author:: Alice Pannier
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: What does future hold for the Franco-British defense partnership after Brexit? France and the United Kingdom have, for long, enjoyed a close defense relationship, thanks in part to their analogous strategic cultures. The 2010 Lancaster House treaties built on this proximity to expand cooperation in the fields of nuclear weapons, force projection, interoperability and industrial integration. In spite of genuine progress in the first years following the treaties, the Franco-British strategic partnership has had to face two pitfalls: on the one hand, Brexit and its political consequences for the United Kingdom, and, on the other hand, President Macron’s attempt to revive European defense and Franco-German cooperation. The tenth anniversary of Lancaster House should offer the opportunity to rethink the convergence between bilateral cooperation and the resolutely European horizon of French defense policy.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, France, and Germany

130. The EU–UK relationship: It is what it is

Author:: Fabian Zuleeg and Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement might have pulled both sides back from the brink of a no-deal cliff edge, but it remains a shaky foundation for the next stage of EU–UK relations. Both sides must invest in the relationship and rebuild trust to prevent any conflict from escalating into a tit-for-tat. Or else, they risk the collapse of the deal and the return to a no-deal-like state. In the first months of its new phase, the relationship is already off to a rocky start. The rows over the diplomatic status of the EU mission in London and the Commission’s (now reversed) decision to trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol expose the volatility of the relations and the importance of good communication and trust. The hope for a deal came with the expectation that it would provide the foundation upon which a closer relationship could be constructed over time. It now seems more likely that it will be the basis for a diverging – and at times conflicting – relationship, with little prospect for a significantly closer economic relationship anytime soon. There seems little political appetite on both sides to build on the economic settlement meaningfully, which would require a significant shift of red lines. Previous expectations that a deal would pave the way for outstanding issues, such as the EU granting equivalence for financial services, have also diminished. Given both the political climate and many red lines, the agreed thin economic settlement may be the most we can expect.
Topic:: International Relations, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

131. Europe after the Brits

Author:: Andrew Duff
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Andrew Duff argues that the loss of the United Kingdom should prompt serious reflection about the constitutional direction of the European Union. The secession of a member state changes the context of European integration. Brexit leaves the EU weaker, smaller and poorer — but it can and should also spur reform. The EU should aim to have major changes in place by 2029, including treaty revision. The reforms should include: (i) a renegotiation of the Brexit deal leading to a new class of affiliate membership; (ii) completion of the constitutional framework for a fiscal union; (iii) a European Parliament fully legitimated by election from transnational lists; and (iv) a ‘European Security Council’ of defence ministers to span the divide between the EU and NATO. The Conference on the Future of Europe may prove to be a useful democratic experiment. But it is not designed to address the important constitutional challenges that the Union faces. Duff therefore proposes creating an expert reflection group to stimulate the full implementation of the Treaty of Lisbon as well as prepare the way for the next Convention which must be called to amend the EU treaties. More immediately, the reflection group should make proposals to settle the controversial matter of how to elect the new President of the European Commission in 2024.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, European Union, Brexit, and Institutions
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

132. After Brexit: Could bilateral agreements facilitate the free movement of persons?

Author:: Diego Acosta
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Some of the millions of EU nationals in the UK and British nationals in the EU are already suffering from Brexit’s drastic curtailment of the right to free movement. How can migration now be governed and facilitated between the two parties? Although an EU-wide agreement with the UK that ensures free movement remains the ideal solution, it is currently unrealistic. This calls for an evaluation of possible alternatives. Bilateral agreements should be explored and examined as a possible alternative to an EU-wide agreement with the UK to facilitate and govern cross-border mobility. Various bilateral free movement agreements across Europe show that their use is not only legal but also habitual. They offer flexibility when it comes to the rights of entry, residency and work, as well as other important rights. And they could also be used as a foundation upon which to build an agreement between the EU as a whole and the UK, if not to facilitate the rebuilding of mutual trust. Migration law expert Diego Acosta makes a further case for Spain being the first possible candidate for a post-Brexit bilateral free movement agreement concluded between an EU member state and the UK. Spain is the most important EU destination for British emigrants, and British migrants residing in Spain constitute the latter’s third-largest non-national population. In turn, the UK is the most important migrant destination for Spanish nationals worldwide, who represent the fifth-largest migrant group from the EU. He offers concrete suggestions as to what a bilateral treaty between Spain and the UK could include. In addition, governments of EU member states that have important reciprocal migration flows with the UK, as well as the UK government, should consider the following recommendations when exploring the possibility of adopting bilateral agreements on migration: The negotiating parties should place the rights and interests of both short-term and long-term British and European nationals residing in each other’s territory at the centre stage. In negotiating a possible treaty, both the respective EU member state (e.g. Spain) and the UK should take the pre-Brexit status quo as the departing point. The status of mobile nationals could be improved beyond that enjoyed by EU citizens pre-Brexit. For example, political rights could be extended beyond the municipal level. Certain categories of individuals (e.g. retirees, young workers) could benefit from special provisions which also depart from the pre-Brexit situation.
Topic:: Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, Diversity, and Mobility
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

133. March 2021 Issue

Author:: Audrey Alexander, Kristina Hummel, Brian Michael Jenkins, Thomas Ruttig, and Douglas Weeks
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: President Biden soon has to decide whether to withdraw the remaining 2,500 U.S. troops from Afghanistan to meet a May 1 deadline agreed to by the previous administration. With time ticking down, the Biden administration has launched a major diplomatic push to broker a peace settlement for Afghanistan. As noted by Thomas Ruttig in this month’s feature article, “Whether and how much the Taliban have changed since their repressive rule over Afghanistan before the fall of 2001 is key to whether a potential peace settlement can create a social and political landscape in Afghanistan that is acceptable to the people of Afghanistan, as well as the United States and NATO allies.” Ruttig assesses that “While the Taliban have softened their rhetoric on some issues (for example, on women’s rights and education) and there is evidence of real policy change in certain areas (for example, on the use of media, in the education sector, a greater acceptance of NGOs, and an acceptance that a future political system will need to accommodate at least some of their political rivals), their policy adjustments appear to have been largely driven by political imperatives rather than any fundamental changes in ideology.” He assesses that “Whether some changes in approach will be perpetuated will depend on the ability of Afghan communities and political groups to maintain pressure on the Taliban. This, in turn, depends on continued international attention toward Afghanistan.” Brian Michael Jenkins, in a feature commentary, examines several possible courses of action the Biden administration could take if the U.S. efforts to broker a peace settlement in Afghanistan do not result in a major breakthrough in the coming weeks. He writes: “What makes a decision on which path to follow so difficult is that each option carries a high risk of resulting in bad outcomes.” He notes that “Decisive action always looks good, but a turbulent world also means calculating risks, avoiding unintended consequences, and hedging bets.” This month’s interview is with Mary McCord, the executive director of the Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection at the Georgetown University Law Center, whose previous service in government included working as Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the U.S. Department of Justice from 2016 to 2017. She offers insights on the heightened threat of far-right extremist violence in the United States and how the country’s legal architecture could evolve to counter it. Douglas Weeks argues that there is “too much pessimism” in the United Kingdom about the possibility of deradicalizing terrorist offenders. He writes: “To address the root causes of the threat, the United Kingdom needs to learn lessons from what has worked for successful ‘deradicalization’ mentors and empower their efforts.”
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Affairs, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, and Radicalization
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United Kingdom, and United States of America

134. UK Economic Diplomacy in the 21st Century: The LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission Final Report

Author:: LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission was convened in 2019 to establish a strategic direction for a new age of foreign economic policy, to understand the domestic ramifications of changes to the UK’s trade agenda, and to present recommendations that may best advance the UK’s priorities at home and abroad. The aim of the Report is to position the UK optimally in a changed 21st century global economy while maintaining the UK’s support for an open, multilateral trade and rules-based international system. The Report proposes a refined economic diplomacy framework that seeks to balance commercial openness with strategic domestic and foreign policy aims, broadly defined.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

135. Shaping the Indo-Pacific? Japan and Europeanisation

Author:: Yee-Kuang Heng
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this Strategic Update, Professor Yee-Kuang Heng investigates European power projection and presence in the Indo-Pacific, and its converging nature with Japan’s attempt to shape the regional environment in its favour. While UK threat perceptions have converged significantly with Japan’s since former Prime Minister David Cameron’s promulgation of a “golden era” in relations with China, managing expectations of Japan’s attempt to ‘shape’ and encourage Europeanisation remains crucial. But is it fair to conclude that Japan has been successful in encouraging a stronger European presence to help it shape the Indo-Pacific order?
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Europeanization, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Japan, China, United Kingdom, Europe, and Indo-Pacific

136. European Middle Powers in the Indo-Pacific amid GreatPower Strategic Competition

Author:: Nilanthi Samaranayake
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: European middle powers are not typically part of U.S. discussions of the Indo-Pacific. However, in an era of growing strategic competition, they are collectively and individually expressing stronger equities in the stability of the region. In May 2021, for example, the United Kingdom’s aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth set sail for the first time on a tour that will take it to various locations, including to the Indo-Pacific region. The Dutch frigate HNLMS Evertsen, as well as a U.S. destroyer and aircraft, are also part of the carrier strike group. Thus, now is a good moment to step back and reflect on the role of European middle powers in the Indo-Pacific amid the backdrop of great-power, strategic competition. The Netherlands, Germany, and France have recently published strategy documents focused on the Indo-Pacific. The Netherlands’ document released in November 2020 discussed concerns about upholding the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in the South China Sea and the need for the European Union to take a more vocal stance on stability in this region. Germany published a similar document in September 2020 in which it emphasized its deep economic interests in the Indo-Pacific “rules-based international order.” Earlier, France led thinking about evolving regional dynamics in 2018. Through the publication of France’s Defense Strategy in the Indo-Pacific and France and Security in the Indo-Pacific documents in 2019, France expressed its concerns about the impact of China’s activities in the East and South China Sea on regional stability. These issues have also been raised through NATO, which has been grappling with the belief that “China does not share our values” and the implications for alliance security and the international rules-based order.
Topic:: Power Politics, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, Netherlands, and Indo-Pacific

137. The European Union and Brexit: Analysis from the Perspective of the Visegrad Group of Countries

Author:: Adrian Chojan
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The article aims to analyze Brexit from the perspective of the Visegrad Group countries in the context of the future of the European Union. Addressing this issue is important from the point of view of assessing the role of the EU for the Visegrad countries. The main thesis of the research is that Brexit will not lead to a reform of the EU in the coming years, which is what some of the Visegrad Group countries are trying to do. The article is provocative, because, during the migration crisis, the Visegrad Group was shown as a brake on the European integration process. After Brexit, it was considered that some of EU Member States could follow Great Britain and leave the EU. The article complements the scientific achievements in this field, as it presents the view from the country of Central and Eastern Europe.
Topic:: Migration, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, and Integration
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

138. A Movement Between Parliamentary Politics and the Pathway to Violence and Terrorism: Germany’s Radical Right Narratives and Counter-narratives

Author:: Maximilian Kreter
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This country report, written by Maximilian Kreter, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:: Civil Society, Far Right, Radical Right, Civil Society Organizations, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Canada, Norway, Germany, Hungary, Australia, and New Zealand

139. Radical Right Narratives and Norwegian Counter-narratives in the Decade of Utøya and Bærum Solo-actor Attacks

Author:: Mette Wiggen
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This country report, written by Dr. Mette Wiggen, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:: Civil Society, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Political Extremism, Civil Society Organizations, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Canada, Norway, Germany, Hungary, Australia, and New Zealand

140. Fog in Channel? The Impact of Brexit on EU and UK Foreign Affairs

Author:: Amelia Hadfield and Nicholas Wright
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: The UK’s rejection of any institutionalised relationship with the EU in foreign, security and defence policy (FSDP) is arguably the most noteworthy feature of the post-Brexit dispensation. In a stark reversal in early 2020, the British government abandoned pledges made in the 2019 Political Declaration to ‘establish structured consultation and regular thematic dialogues [that] could contribute to the attainment of common objectives’, including on the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) (1). This gap was intensified by the absence of any reference to foreign affairs in the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) or the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy (IR) (2). Indeed, the IR essentially ignores the EU, referring only to British ambitions to remain a lead European defence actor, with a focus on multilateral venues (notably the UN and NATO), bilateral relations and ad hoc groupings. In short, an EU-sized hole now exists in British foreign policy thinking. This matters in London and across Europe. While in the EU, the UK exercised significant influence and leadership in FSDP, its EU membership magnifying its global capacities. In leaving, Sir Simon Fraser, formerly permanent under-secretary in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), warned that Brexit represented ‘the biggest shock to [the UK’s] method of international influencing and the biggest structural change to our place in the world since the end of World War Two’ (3). From the EU’s perspective, as observed by High Representative Josep Borrell, ‘with Brexit, nothing gets easier and a lot gets more complicated. How much more complicated depends on the choices that both sides will make’ (4). The choices thus far indicate a rejection of ‘old obligations’ (5) and an essentially transactional relationship that will be ‘structurally adversarial for the foreseeable future’ (6). Nonetheless, Brexit also gives both the UK and the EU a once-in-a-generation opportunity to rethink and reconfigure their approaches to foreign affairs and how they navigate a profoundly changed regional context. To understand the scale of this undertaking, we offer an innovative thematic analysis focused on four ‘Rs’: reputation, responsibility, resources and relevance. Each ‘R’ represents a core element of both sides’ respective foreign policies, offering insights into possible international roles and goals. The four ‘Rs’ also help us identify the main risks and opportunities Brexit encompasses, providing a conceptual symmetry as to how the choices of both the EU and UK might align and impact each other.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

141. From Street-based Activism to Terrorism and Political Violence: UK Radical Right Narratives and Counter-Narratives at a Time of Transition

Author:: William Allchorn
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This country report, written by Dr. William Allchorn, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:: Violence, Radical Right, Political Extremism, Narrative, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

142. Dialogue with Russia: Russia Needs to Reset Relations with the West

Author:: Kalev Stoicescu, Liana Fix, Agnieszka Legucka, Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, Artūrs Bikovs, and Keir Giles
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Moscow’s resurgent foreign policy and the undemocratic rule of President Vladimir Putin ended the relatively friendly relations that had been possible between Russia and the West in the 1990s. In the seven years since Russia annexed Crimea and started a war of attrition against Ukraine, the security situation in the transatlantic region has continuously deteriorated. The Kremlin has demonstrated hostility towards the West, crises and security issues have continued to multiply instead of being resolved, and the risk of outright conflict has come close to Cold War peaks. There is an obvious and urgent need to lower tensions, but Moscow prefers to demonstrate its readiness to escalate. This report analyses Western-Russian relations and proposes a way forward for conducting dialogue with Russia. It offers an analysis of Russia’s relations with NATO and the EU, an overview of the bilateral relations of various Western countries with Russia, a glimpse of China’s role, and an assessment of the main interests and contentious issues in Western-Russian relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, International Affairs, and European Union
Political Geography:: Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, France, Poland, Germany, Latvia, and United States of America

143. UK Green Growth Index

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Our UK Green Growth Index, produced on behalf of Lloyds Banking Group, assesses the degree to which each UK nation and region may be impacted by the challenges of the net zero transition, and how well placed they are to capitalise on green growth. The transition to net zero will require substantial investment and adaptation across the UK economy. This will create unique opportunities for British businesses to innovate, produce, and supply the goods and services needed to enable the transition, not only in the UK but globally. At the same time, for many parts of the economy the transition will create challenges due to the need to adapt products, processes, and skills. Our UK Green Growth Index, produced on behalf of Lloyds Banking Group, assesses the degree to which each UK nation and region may be impacted by these challenges, and how well placed they are to capitalise on green growth. Our research suggests that green growth opportunities are especially strong in Scotland, given its existing base of green economy activity and its access to a workforce with relevant skills. Similarly, Wales appears well placed to capitalise on green growth opportunities, although it may face greater disruption in the nearer term due to its reliance on high emitting industries. Northern Ireland is also relatively exposed to disruption and may need to accelerate efforts to put in place the factors needed to fully exploit green economy opportunities. Amongst English regions, the South East and South West appear to be best placed to capitalise on the green economy and are less exposed to disruption from the transition than many other parts of the UK. In contrast, Yorkshire and the Humber may face greater disruption and has further to go to develop some of the factors needed to capitalise on green growth. London is somewhat of an outlier: its status as a city-region with a service-orientated economy means it is much less exposed to the challenges than areas which rely more on industrial activity, but it also has less scope to capitalise on green economy opportunities in fields such as manufacturing and energy (although it is well positioned to develop as a centre for green finance and other professional services).
Topic:: Environment, International Trade and Finance, Economic Growth, and Green Technology
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

144. The economic contribution of UK rail

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: The UK railway sector supported £42.9 billion of economic production (GVA) in 2019, associated with 710,000 jobs. Productivity and wage levels, both on the railways and in the rail supply sector, were above-average in every region. The UK railway sector supported £42.9 billion of economic production and was associated with 710,000 jobs and £14.1 billion in tax revenues in 2019, new research by Oxford Economics finds. The rail transport system—Network Rail and the train and metro system operators—accounted for £12.2 billion of that total Gross Value Added (GVA) measure of output. For every £1 of activity on the railway system itself, a further £2.50 of income was generated elsewhere in the UK economy, as a result of supply chain links and other knock-on effects. This extra GVA comprised £17.8 billion in the rail supply sector, £0.9 billion in on-station retail and its suppliers, and £12.0 billion across the wider consumer-facing economy due to wage-funded employee spending (the so-called ‘induced impact’). The study, commissioned by the Railway Industry Association (RIA), also finds that both productivity and wages are higher than the economy-wide average, in both the rail transport system and rail supply sector. This is true not just for the UK as a whole, but for every one of its 12 constituent regions and countries. Finally, the analysis looks at the potential impact of extra public spending on the UK rail infrastructure. Looking further into the future, if rail infrastructure spending were 50% higher than the ‘baseline’ expectation, an extra 104,000 rail supply sector jobs would be supported throughout the five-year period 2025-29. Even if these jobs simply displaced other work, the economy would still benefit, because of their high-productivity, high-wage nature. In the more immediate future, the economy will still be recovering from the Covid pandemic, and will therefore have a degree of spare capacity. This means that any extra jobs created by an uplift in rail infrastructure investment could be genuinely additional, rather than displacing other employment. And this work could support more new jobs in turn, through induced effects. Here, we find that every extra £100 million per annum of spending on rail infrastructure would support an additional 1,400 well-paid jobs in the rail supply sector, plus a further 700 jobs across the wider consumer-facing economy.
Topic:: Economics, Infrastructure, Railways, and Travel
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

145. The socio-economic impact of cultivated meat in the UK

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: A report on the potential socio-economic benefits of the cultivated meat sector in conjunction with leading UK producer Ivy Farm Technologies. The cultivated meat industry is in its infancy, both in the UK and in most countries around the world. But it clearly presents significant opportunities for entrepreneurs, investors, and other commercial partners to exploit the global potential of a move away from conventional farming towards more sustainable methods. However, the UK industry is currently not able to take advantage of the commercial opportunities while it awaits regulatory approval. This report has sought to demonstrate that there is a strong economic rationale for allowing UK firms to move from research and development into production. As the report highlights, the UK cultivated meat market has the potential to grow into an industry with a total gross value added contribution to UK GDP of over £2 billion in 2030. The detailed analysis of the value of economic activity generated, the number of highly-skilled jobs created and supported, and the taxation revenue (up to £523 million) generated shows the industry has the potential to become an important sectoral driver of growth during the next decade.
Topic:: Economics, Job Creation, Socioeconomics, and Business Management
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

146. The Economic Impact of an Online Retail Sales Tax in the UK

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Amazon have commissioned Oxford Economics to produce an independent quantitative assessment of the economic implications of the introduction of an online sales tax in the UK. On 27 July 2020, HM Treasury (HMT) announced a call for evidence around the issue of a business rates review. Contained within this document was a consideration of alternative tax bases that could raise revenue for the Exchequer to compensate for any shortfall that might be created by business rates reform. One of the options proposed was an online sales tax (OST). In this context, Amazon have commissioned Oxford Economics to produce an independent quantitative assessment of the economic implications of the introduction of such a tax in the UK. We find that that the introduction of an OST would raise around £1.6 billion in government revenue. The burden of the tax would be split between consumers, online sales platforms, and upstream businesses. Our analysis shows that a majority of the tax’s burden will most likely be borne by consumers who could lose around £1.3 billion in welfare terms. The net inefficiencies due to the OST are estimated to be around £200 million (i.e., 13% of the revenue). The government’s fiscal options will need to be assessed against a range of economic as well as procedural criteria. In our assessment of the OST against the Treasury Select Committee’s principles of taxation, we found that the OST is distortive and also could potentially restrict SMEs from competing in the retail market. Further, the disproportionate impact on households in the lowest income decile and on economically weaker regions of the UK as well as the restrictive effect on the elderly and the disabled raise questions about the fairness of the OST.
Topic:: Economics, Digital Economy, Retail, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

147. The Labour Party in Opposition and Power 1979-2019: Forward March Halted?

Author:: Patrick Diamond
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: The cycle of defeat and recovery begins in 1979 with Labour’s ejection from office following the economic and political crises of the 1970s.2 The party’s defeat was traumatic, if not unexpected. The Prime Minister, Jim Callaghan admitted: ‘There are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics. It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea- change and it is for Mrs. Thatcher’. The loss of office was as nothing compared with the harrowing events of the decade that followed. Labour suffered a further three consecutive defeats. In 1981, the party was almost obliterated by the breakaway Social Democratic Party (SDP), threatening to end Labour’s grip on the centre-left vote. Only the First- Past-the-Post electoral system saved Labour as the dominant force on the Left of British politics. Even so, the party remained bitterly divided. The leadership spent years embroiled in internal factional disputes, such was its determination to destroy the hard Left entryist Militant Tendency. Since the 1950s, Labour was weakened by recurrent intra-party conflict. Most notable were its divisions over Europe, fundamental ideological disagreements about the role of the state in the economy, and the primacy that should be accorded to nationalisation and public ownership in the party’s programme.
Topic:: Elections, Political Parties, Opposition, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

148. Not for patching? Public opinion and the commitment to ‘build back better’

Author:: Karl Pike, Farah Hussain, Philip Cowley, and Patrick Diamond
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Announcing the launch of a ‘Build Back Better Council’ in January 2021, bringing together various business leaders, the Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that ‘as we recover from this crisis it won’t be enough to just go back to normal – our promise will be to build back better and level up opportunity for people and businesses across the UK’. 1 The following month, the Leader of the Opposition, Keir Starmer, said he believed ‘there’s a mood in the air which we don’t detect often in Britain. It was there in 1945, after the sacrifice of war, and it’s there again now. It’s the determination that our collective sacrifice must lead to a better future’. 2 The historian and peer – and the Mile End Institute’s patron – Lord Hennessy similarly argued recently that the Covid-19 experience ‘has sharpened our sense of the duty of care we have one for another, that a state has for all of its people, to a degree we have not felt collectively since World War Two and its aftermath’. 3 These appraisals of the impact of the crisis, and political commitments to change, are giving rise to debate. Are we to experience a moment similar to that of postwar transformation? If so, what is the prospect for the Britain that emerges from the Covid-19 pandemic to be significantly different, in policy terms, from what preceded it? The latter question in particular animates this project – Not for Patching?, of which this report marks our earliest findings, based on an opinion survey. Ipsos MORI surveyed 1,120 adults across Great Britain, posing questions across a range of policy areas. Fieldwork was carried out online from 19 March 2021 to 22 March 2021, and data weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error, but they still give us an insight into the public’s priorities. Further analysis of this data, and further surveys, will continue to add to this project. The purpose of this report is to examine the views of the British public on what rebuilding after the pandemic might mean. What we offer here are some preliminary indications of what policy areas the public want to prioritise, and how the machinery of government has managed and performed during this crisis. We are interested in both priorities and performance here, not least because we consider them linked.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

149. Collaborative and agile. Intelligence community collaboration insights from the United Kingdom and the United States

Author:: Michael Shoebridge, John Coyne, and Rajiv Shah
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: The central aim of this report is to generate insights from the US and UK intelligence communities’ collaboration efforts. It identifies insights so that members of Australia’s national intelligence community, including the ONI, can use them to enhance the community’s collaboration and agility for the purpose of giving Australian decision-makers an insight edge over others. We acknowledge that agencies must contextualise those insights to Australia’s specific circumstances, and we’ve sought to do some of that in this report. The report isn’t intended as an academic think piece but as a guide-and goad-to actions that can advance and protect Australia’s wellbeing, prosperity and security. This report doesn’t seek to second-guess the internal insights that it explores. Instead, it takes an external perspective, informed by experience in relevant agencies and by perspectives from intelligence-community partners and analysts in the UK and the US.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Intelligence, National Security, and Collaboration
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and United States of America

150. What is AUKUS and what is it not?

Author:: Michael Shoebridge
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: What IS the new AUKUS partnership between the US, the UK and Australia? How does it fit with the Quad, ASEAN and other new forums like the government-tech Sydney Dialogue? This new ASPI Insight sets out what AUKUS is—a technology accelerator that’s’ about shifting the military balance in the Indo Pacific. Just as importantly, it sets out what AUKUS it isn’t, to reset some of the discussion that has made some assumptions here. AUKUS isn’t a new alliance structure, a competitor to the Quad between Australia, India, Japan and the US, or a signal of decreased commitment to ASEAN forums by the AUKUS members. And the Insight proposes some focus areas for implementation of this new ‘minilateral’ technology accelerator, including having a single empowered person in each nation charged with implementation and ‘obstacle busting’. This is to break through the institutional, political and corporate permafrost that has prevented such rapid technological adoption by our militaries in recent decades. As is the case with James Miller in the US, this person should report to their national leader, not from inside the defence bureaucracies of the three nations. On purpose and urgency, the report identifies a simple performance metric for AUKUS implementers over the next three years. On 20 January 2025, when the Australian prime minister calls whoever is the US president on that day, AUKUS has become such a successful piece of the furniture, with tangible results that have generated broad institutional, political and corporate support that, regardless of how warm or testy this leaders’ phone call is (think Turnbull-Trump in January 2016), AUKUS’s momentum continues.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Alliance, AUKUS, and Quad Alliance
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

151. Commemorating 50 Years of 'Outcast London'

Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: This event from the Mile End Institute, Raphael Samuel History Centre, and Modern British History Seminar will commemorate fifty years since the publication of Gareth Stedman Jones’ Outcast London. The webinar celebrates the book and featured a panel of experts whose research interests speak to the book’s themes, methods and politics.
Topic:: Development, Labor Issues, Urban, and Industrialization
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and London

152. Forty Years On New Perspectives on the 1981 Budget

Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: This year is the fortieth anniversary of the 1981 UK Budget Statement, one of the most controversial in British history. Geoffrey Howe, the Conservative Chancellor in Margaret Thatcher's first government, deliberately increased taxes during a vicious world recession after two years of tight monetary policy and punishingly high-interest rates, to tame high inflation. Inflation dropped, but the Budget also accelerated deindustrialization and spiralling unemployment, and turbocharged inequality. It has since indelibly shaped memories of ‘Thatcherism’. Forty years on, the current Conservative government is at a new fork in the road in its economic policy, grappling with pandemic spending legacies, the fallout from Brexit, and post-2008 economics, and with electoral pledges both to fiscal probity and to 'level up' the UK.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Governance, Budget, Unemployment, and Deindustrialization
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

153. The Civic University

Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: In 2018, the UPP Foundation established a commission to investigate the civic work of universities. The commission published its findings in February 2019 and recommended that universities set out to co-create Civic University Agreements with other key civic partners in order to beyond traditional civic engagement and become truly civic universities, embedded into their areas.
Topic:: Education, Social Policy, Higher Education, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

154. After the Virus: Lessons from The Past For A Better Future

Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Hilary Cooper and Simon Szreter have published a powerful manifesto for change post-Covid-19. It argues that the world needs ‘a new morality’ to recover from the pandemic and to prepare for future crises - and that Britain’s own history points the way. In 'After the Virus', they show how decades of neoliberalism and austerity left us vulnerable to the effects of Covid-19; they show how important history is for British and global public policy today, going back 400 years to look at Elizabeth I’s innovative Poor Laws, the world’s first universal welfare system; and they present practical proposals, inspired by our own history, that will promote a morality of nurturing, not exploiting, people and the planet.
Topic:: Governance, Neoliberalism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

155. Celebrating 20 Years of The Living Wage at Queen Mary University of London

Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: The Living Wage Campaign was launched by London Citizens in Walthamstow, East London, in 2001. Since then, it spread across the country and became a nationwide campaign led by the Living Wage Foundation. In 2006, Queen Mary became the first accredited university in the UK to pay all staff a real Living Wage, based on the cost of living, not just the government minimum. Queen Mary also improved working conditions so that every staff member at the university – regardless of rank or role – received a minimum of 30 days’ annual leave, access to sick pay, an annually negotiated pay increase, and an employer contribution pension scheme. In 2011, the University became a founding partner of the Living Wage Foundation. At this event to mark twenty years of the Living Wage Campaign, the Mile End Institute hosted a conversation with Matthew Bolton, the Executive Director of Citizens UK, to revisit the history of the Living Wage and the campaign to establish the living wage at Queen Mary. The event reflected on how the Living Wage is a vital strategy in the fight to end poverty in London and the important role of higher educational institutions in creating a fairer society.
Topic:: Economics, Poverty, Labor Issues, and Standard of Living
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

156. Structural and Institutional Racism in the UK - Contemporary Perspectives

Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: The Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities in Britain published its controversial and widely criticised report on structural inequalities earlier this year. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) think-tank in conjunction with Race on the Agenda (ROTA) and the Race Equality Foundation (REF) also recently published a collection of papers in the journal Progressive Review that offer an alternative analysis of structural and institutional racism in the UK. This event explored different perspectives and contributions to the debate about structural and institutional racism in the UK, using the IPPR/ROTA/REF collection as a starting point to consider the limitations of the Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities and the analysis it promoted.
Topic:: Race, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Structuralism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

157. Banking Bailout Law: A Comparative Study of the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union

Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Our expert panellists discussed Virág Blazsek’s book, Banking Bailout Law: A Comparative Study of the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union, which examines the different bank bailout and resolution techniques and tools through carefully selected case studies. The panel explored the pros and cons of the different legal and regulatory options identified by the book to reconstruct a regulatory framework that might better serve countries in future financial crises.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Finance, Banking, and Bailout
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America

158. The Limehouse Declaration 40 Years On: Can the SDP Teach Us Anything Today?

Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: n partnership with Progressive Britain, we were delighted to host this live webinar chaired by MEI Deputy Director, Dr Colm Murphy. Combining the insights of a witness seminar with contemporary analysis, the panel aimed to highlight the similarities (and differences) between the 1981 schism and the contemporary moment, using this anniversary as an opportunity to gain insights into the politics of today.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Progressivism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

159. The Conservative Party in London

Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: The session examined the long-term prospects for the Conservative Party in London following the recent Mayoral and London Assembly elections. The panel considered how the Conservative party are positioned electorally in London, and how they can attract both younger voters and those from ethnic minority backgrounds. They also discuss the policy issues that are likely to dominate the political debate in London over the next few years in the aftermath of Covid-19, and how London can, and perhaps should, relate to the rest of the United Kingdom in the future.
Topic:: Ethnicity, Domestic Politics, Conservatism, and Urban
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and London

160. Where Next for the Liberal Democrats?

Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: In partnership with the think-tank Social Liberal Forum, we were delighted to welcome you to ‘Where Next for the Liberal Democrats?’. The panel considered the recent electoral performance of the Liberal Democrats in UK-wide, national, and local elections, the role of the Party in shaping the policy agenda in British politics, and the broader challenges to political liberalism in the aftermath of Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic.
Topic:: Brexit, Domestic Politics, Liberalism, Political Parties, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

161. A Future Well and Fair: A Post-Covid Vision of the Welfare State

Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: This event launched the report from the project, 'A Future Well and Fair: A Post-Covid Vision for the Welfare State', by Paul Copeland, Mary Daly and Alistair Leitch and is supported by Research England. The report argues that if the UK is to become a prosperous, healthy, fair and more equitable society, it needs to acknowledge that the current system of welfare is effectively broken. Reforming existing policy areas in isolation of each other will do little to move the welfare state beyond its current limitations. It provides a visionary and realistic future welfare agenda based on five principles: repositioning; reforming; reimagining; regulating, and revitalising.
Topic:: Social Policy, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Welfare State
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

162. A New Settlement: Place and Wellbeing in Local Government

Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: This event launched the report, 'A New Settlement: Place and Wellbeing in Local Government', in partnership with LGiU with support from Research England. The report outlines a new settlement for place in England built around the insights and the experiences of councils grappling with these challenges across the country.
Topic:: Government, Governance, Local, and Welfare State
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

163. Keir Starmer's Leadership: One Year On

Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: This special event brought together an expert panel to discuss Keir Starmer’s first year as Leader of the Opposition in the aftermath of the major elections that took place in Scotland, Wales, and other parts of the UK. The session commenced with a presentation by Anthony Wells, Director of Political and Social Research (YouGov), who gave an insight into what the polls say about Labour’s performance over the past year and the present and future challenges facing the Labour leadership.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

164. Brexit, Digital Platforms and Algorithms: Competition Policy in the UK

Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: With investigations into large technology companies’ allegedly monopolistic behaviour across the globe, competition policy has become a central issue in economics and politics. But can more robust enforcement of our current rules tame the power of the tech giants? As the role of the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) expands with Brexit, how does its proposed approach towards tech platforms compare in an international context – especially vis-à-vis the EU – and can it be effective in making sure markets don’t tip in favour of a single dominant player? What can the government, academics and the private sector do to tackle the challenges to competition from algorithms that might be prone to collusion, self-preferencing and other harms to fair market outcomes?
Topic:: Science and Technology, Business, Digitalization, and Competition
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

165. ‘Politics and Law: The Nightmare and the Noble Dream’ - Rt Hon Robert Buckland QC MP

Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: UK Constitutional Reform: What Has Worked and What Hasn’t?
Topic:: Law, Reform, Constitution, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

166. UK Constitutional Reform: What Has Worked and What Hasn’t?

Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: The past two decades have seen some of the most far-reaching changes to the UK constitution since universal suffrage. Many virtues have been ascribed to these reforms. To the extent that criticism exists, it has often been to argue that further reform is necessary. This online conference adopts a different approach. It aims to provide a critical evaluation of recent constitutional reforms. Bringing together leading constitutional experts and politicians from the United Kingdom and around the world, the conference will examine the following questions: Did the reforms deliver what their proponents claimed they would? Have the reforms generally improved governance, or added further complication? Have the reforms helped to unite the kingdom or driven further division? Have reforms enhanced or obscured accountability? The programme consists of 8 panels spread over two half days, complemented by a keynote address from a senior figure in the UK government. See the outline below and containing more information about panels.
Topic:: Governance, Reform, Constitution, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

167. Professor Sophie Harman on the Traps Leaders Can Fall into during a Public Health Emergency.

Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Professor Sophie Harman discusses the five traps political leaders can fall into when it comes to a public health emergency as part of the 'Lessons on a crisis' series, presented by Evan Davis, for BBC Radio 4.
Topic:: Governance, Domestic Politics, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

168. Democracy and Climate Change

Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Dr Robert Saunders chaired a panel with Hilary Benn MP (former Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs), Caroline Lucas MP (former leader of the Green Party), David Runciman (University of Cambridge and Talking Politics podcast) and Rebecca Willis (expert lead, UK Climate Assembly), where they explored the relationship between the future of democracy and the future of the planet.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Democracy
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

169. AUKUS - A Harbinger of a New Geopolitical Reality

Author:: Giorgi Badridze
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: In September of this year, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced the creation of a new defense pact in the Asia-Pacific region called AUKUS (which is an abbreviation for the names of the member states: Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States). This paper will discuss the objectives of this new tripartite pact as well as the rationale behind the reactions thereto vis-à-vis leading international players and how it reflects the current balance of power and security prospects in the world. Ongoing processes in the world today, including the creation of AUKUS, indicate that China's power and influence have grown so much that the more or less stabile world order may be radically altered if this is not balanced within the security sphere. The main task of the United States (the dominant power of the existing world order) and its allies is to prevent irreversible changes in world order; in particular, those that will accelerate the formation of Chinese hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region and the world at large.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Alliance, and AUKUS
Political Geography:: China, United Kingdom, Australia, and United States of America

170. Beyond Global Britain: A realistic foreign policy for the UK

Author:: Jeremy Shapiro
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The UK government’s vision for Global Britain aims to restore British greatness as a maritime trading nation. But this vision does not reflect today’s geostrategic realities, including the continuing importance of the EU. The Johnson government seems to need the perennial fights of a permanent Brexit, but this approach is eroding the UK’s capacity to cooperate with the EU on foreign and security policy. At the same time, as ECFR polling reveals, the British public do not have any particular animus towards the EU. While the public value British sovereignty and independence, they would support a foreign policy that worked cooperatively with the bloc. The public is on to something: Britain still has extraordinary assets and can forge an effective foreign policy. Yet, to do so, it must focus on British strengths, avoid military adventures in distant lands, and find balanced, effective working relationships with the EU and the US. British security and prosperity will increasingly depend on unromantic issues such as carbon tariffs and investment screening – on which the best way to protect British interests is to triangulate between the EU and US positions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

171. Brexit and beyond

Author:: Anand Menon
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. Now the UK is finally able to embark on its new course, we believe that the need for social science to play a role in informing public and political debates is as great if not greater than ever. The contributions that follow underline the scale and scope of the agenda that confronts the United Kingdom. It is meant both as a guide to the issues that will loom large of the months and years to come and as a signal that we intend to deploy the best social science research in order to understand and address them.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, and Society
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

172. Anand Menon: Brexit and beyond report

Author:: Anand Menon
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Professor Anand Menon explains the need for social science to play a role in informing public and political debates is as great if not greater than ever, now that the UK is embarking on a new course after Brexit.
Topic:: European Union, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

173. Not for patching? Public opinion and the commitment to ‘build back better’

Author:: Karl Pike, Farah Hussain, Philip Cowley, and Patrick Diamond
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Announcing the launch of a ‘Build Back Better Council’ in January 2021, bringing together various business leaders, the Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that ‘as we recover from this crisis it won’t be enough to just go back to normal – our promise will be to build back better and level up opportunity for people and businesses across the UK’. 1 The following month, the Leader of the Opposition, Keir Starmer, said he believed ‘there’s a mood in the air which we don’t detect often in Britain. It was there in 1945, after the sacrifice of war, and it’s there again now. It’s the determination that our collective sacrifice must lead to a better future’. 2 The historian and peer – and the Mile End Institute’s patron – Lord Hennessy similarly argued recently that the Covid-19 experience ‘has sharpened our sense of the duty of care we have one for another, that a state has for all of its people, to a degree we have not felt collectively since World War Two and its aftermath’. 3 These appraisals of the impact of the crisis, and political commitments to change, are giving rise to debate. Are we to experience a moment similar to that of postwar transformation? If so, what is the prospect for the Britain that emerges from the Covid-19 pandemic to be significantly different, in policy terms, from what preceded it? The latter question in particular animates this project – Not for Patching?, of which this report marks our earliest findings, based on an opinion survey.
Topic:: Government, Public Opinion, COVID-19, and Boris Johnson
Political Geography:: United Kingdom

174. The UK Iraqi Diaspora and their Mobilization towards Iraq: Homeland Politics, Internal Dynamics, and the Fragmentation of Diasporic Transnationalism

Author:: Oula Kadhum
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: In 2003, for the first time in decades, Iraqis in the diaspora were able to return to their former homeland and help in the rebuilding of their country. Many returned in 2003 with ambitious plans and ideas to help in the country’s development, some through political parties and others through civil society. Due to political developments in Iraq however, and the subsequent ethno-sectarian political system installed under the US-led intervention, diaspora mobilization has been affected and shaped by homeland politics and dynamics, privileging some while thwarting others. Indeed, the post-2003 political system contributed to the fragmentation of diasporic mobilization along ethnic and sectarian lines due to homeland political dynamics. This, in turn, has shaped the issues and the type of transnational and translocal mobilization carried out by different groups. Focusing predominantly on the UK context and to a lesser extent the Swedish one,[i] this study explores both top-down and bottom-up approaches to Iraqi diaspora transnational mobilization, and assesses the opportunities and constraints for coordination in diasporic transnationalism. Drawing on 15 semi-structured interviews conducted with community gatekeepers, organizational representatives, and professionals working in specific sectors, as well as numerous informal interviews, and supplemented by interviews conducted from 2013 to 2018 in both London and Stockholm, this study assess the different waves of migration and socio-economic profiles of Iraqi migrants, how pivotal moments in Iraq’s recent history have affected diasporic transnationalism, and underlines the hindrances to mobilization. The study finds that where the first waves of UK migration saw the arrival of political and religious elites, medical professionals, and artists, latter waves saw the arrival of less skilled and educated workers, as well as refugees. This provides the background both to Iraqi diasporic mobilization and links to the post-2003 political system and to the fragmentation that would ensue. While some diasporic elites went on to serve in the Iraqi government, other diaspora individuals worked through civil society, providing development, training, knowledge transfer, and social welfare. The study also finds that the instability in Iraq, homeland dynamics affecting the positionality of groups vis-à-vis the country, and lack of funds are major obstacles to broader mobilization. To this point, while there is no denying the will of the diaspora to help in the rebuilding of Iraq, distrust in the diaspora among ethnic and sectarian groups presents a particular challenge to collaboration and cooperation. Building trust and reconciliation, helping to create a platform between diaspora groups, the wider public, and Iraqi organizations, and focusing efforts on cultural, heritage, health, and developmental issues – and avoiding party politics – could help overcome these obstacles to allow the diaspora to play a greater role in supporting the Iraqi state and society.
Topic:: Migration, Diaspora, Immigration, transnationalism, Humanitarian Crisis, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Iraq, United Kingdom, Europe, and Middle East

175. AUKUS Security Pact: Setting the Rivalry with China in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Krševan Antun Dujmović
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The announcement of the trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, known by the acronym AUKUS, intended to enhance cooperation between the three countries in the Indo- Pacific region in defense and security, has sent shockwaves throughout the world, especially the UK for the Royal Navy of Australia. The nuclear fueled submarines will be armed by conventional weapons, the number of acquired vessels will be at least eight, and as a typically Australian request, part of the vessels will be constructed in Australia’s naval shipyards. So far, the US, the UK, Russia, China, France in China and Europe. The key element of the AUKUS pact, signed on 15th September 2021, is the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines from the US and and India are the only six countries that have commissioned nuclear-powered submarines. Furthermore, before signing the AUKUS pact, the UK was the only country in the world with which the US was sharing the nuclear propulsion technology, under the Mutual Defense Agreement signed back in 1958. The supply of Australia with British and American nuclear-powered attack submarines, as the most delicate part of the AUKUS pact, attracted by far the most of media attention and provoked China’s aggressive reaction. Even more, the three nations security pact, which is in principal intended to bring “enhanced trilateral security partnership for the 21st century”, has made Beijing particularly worried as China fears that this triple alliance is pointed directly against it. The three countries intend to step up their cooperation in the security and defense sector, and apart from cooperation in industrial production of new military equipment, AUKUS also envisages a broad cooperation in the fields where the three countries feel particularly threatened by China’s staggering growth, and they include cyber security, quantum computing and artificial intelligence.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Alliance, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: United States, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, Australia, North America, and Indo-Pacific

176. The Franco-German Rivarly in the Post-Brexit Europe

Author:: Cagatay Ozdemir
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: A significant foundation of European stability after World War II has been the balance of power between the United Kingdom (UK), France, and Germany. The UK’s accession to the European Communities (EC) in 1973 had carried that ‘balance’ into the EC’s institutional framework. In this regard, the UK’s withdrawal from EU structures may lead to an important political and financial vacuum at the center of the Union. In the wake of Brexit, indications of anxiety and concerns about power imbalances have emerged around the question of which country or counties will steer the Union. There exit fresh post-Brexit assessments that indicate that the UK’s departure from the EU may catalyze the differences between Germany and France. This paper will discuss three essential scenarios for the EU’s political and economic future direction, namely, French leadership, German leadership, and a Franco-German partnership, for the post-Brexit period.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, European Union, Political stability, Brexit, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, France, and Germany

177. West African Elites’ Spending on UK Schools and Universities: A Closer Look

Author:: Matthew Page
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Political, business, and cultural elites from around the world have a strong affinity for the United Kingdom (UK) education system. Nowhere is this truer than in West Africa, where some families in Nigeria and Ghana have a long tradition of sending their children to private boarding schools and universities in the UK. These institutions are especially popular destinations for the offspring of prominent politically exposed persons (PEPs) from the region. Immigration officials, admissions staff, and UK law enforcement are not likely to scrutinize the conditions under which the children of PEPs enroll in British schools, even though the PEPs themselves may have modest legitimate earnings and opaque asset profiles that in other circumstances would raise serious financial concerns. This relative lack of review has allowed some West African PEPs to channel unexplained wealth into the UK education sector. It is not easy to estimate the overall value of this flow, yet it likely exceeds £30 million annually.1 Most of these funds emanate from Nigeria and, to a lesser extent, Ghana; compared with these two countries, only a handful of students from elsewhere in West Africa seek an education in British schools. Tackling this small but significant illicit financial flow should be a priority for UK policymakers. In doing so, they would be helping to realize the UK’s global anticorruption objectives, advance its International Education Strategy, and close a troublesome anti–money laundering (AML) loophole. Failing to do so would exacerbate existing corruption challenges both at home and abroad and increase the UK education sector’s reputational liabilities.
Topic:: Corruption, Education, Law Enforcement, Higher Education, and Elites
Political Geography:: Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, and West Africa

178. COVID-19 credit support programs in Europe’s five largest economies

Author:: Julia Anderson, Francesco Papadia, and Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: n 2020, European governments mitigated the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and other pandemic-fighting programs through a host of initiatives, including efforts to support credit, such as guarantees for bank loans, particularly to small and medium-sized enterprises. This paper presents detailed information about these national credit support programs in the largest national economies of the European Union (France, Germany, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom. The information was collected through thorough examination of published material and extended exchanges with national authorities and financial sector participants. The analysis focuses on (1) how countries positioned themselves on the many tradeoffs that emerged in designing and implementing the programs; and (2) what explains differences in usage across countries and its leveling off everywhere in the second half of 2020.
Topic:: Government, European Union, Finance, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

179. The Impact of the Repression in Xinjiang on China’s Relations with Other Countries

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The policy of repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang has become a significant element of criticism of China in the world. In March this year, the EU, U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on China over the matter. Moreover, the Netherlands, the U.S. and Canada described China’s actions as genocide. For China, however, its actions involving Uyghurs are a key element of domestic politics, which is why it presents accusations as disinformation. It has imposed counter sanctions, including on the EU, and their wide scope indicates that for China, Xinjiang is more important than, for example, the ratification of the Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) with the EU.
Topic:: International Relations, Genocide, Human Rights, European Union, and Uyghurs
Political Geography:: China, United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, Asia, Netherlands, United States of America, and Xinjiang

180. COVID-19 credit-support programmes in Europe’s five largest economies

Author:: Julia Anderson, Francesco Papadia, and Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: In 2020, European governments mitigated the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and other pandemic-fighting programmes through a host of initiatives. These included efforts to support credit, such as guarantees for bank loans, particularly to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). We present and analyse detailed information about those national credit-support programmes implemented in the context of fiscal policy, in Europe’s five largest national economies (besides Russia) in 2020: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. The information was collected through thorough examination of published material and extended exchanges with national authorities and financial sector participants. The analytical part of the paper focuses on two aspects: How countries have dealt with the many trade-offs that emerged in designing and implementing the programmes; What explains the differentiated usage of the facilities in the examined countries, as well as its levelling off in the second half of 2020. Section 1 defines and describes the programmes. Section 2 presents the trade-offs we identified in programme design and implementation. Section 3 explores the factors explaining actual usage in the five countries and over time. Section 4 concludes. Annexes provide details on the programmes for each country (Annex 5) and in summarised matrix form (Annex 4).
Topic:: Business, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Credit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

181. The day after: The conflicting implications of Brexit

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Britain has effectively left the EU after long and tiresome negotiations. But the implications of Brexit have not transpired completely as the aftershocks may be felt within Britain itself in the form of increased desire for independence in Scotland; and London may fail to establish trade agreements that can compensate for its exit from the EU.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

182. Good Practices in Risk Assessment for Terrorist Offenders

Author:: Sofia Koller
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: In November 2019, two people were stabbed to death and three wounded in an attack near London Bridge. One year later, four people were killed and more than 20 injured in a shooting in the historic city center of Vienna. Both attacks were carried out by terrorist offenders recently released from prison. Several other incidents in recent years also involved former terrorist convicts. This brings the issues of risk assessment and management to the fore of the debate on Islamist extremism and terrorism.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Risk
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Germany, and Austria

183. Productivity and the Pandemic: ShortTerm Disruptions and Long-Term Implications

Author:: Klaas de Vries, Abdul Erumban, and Bart van Ark
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: This paper analyses quarterly estimates of productivity growth at industry level for three advanced economies, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, for 2020. We use detailed industry-level data to distinguish reallocations of working hours between industries from pure within-industry productivity gains or losses. We find that all three countries showed positive growth rates of aggregate output per hour in 2020 over 2019. However, after removing the effects from the reallocation of hours between low and high productivity industries, only the US still performed positively in terms of withinindustry productivity growth. In contrast, the two European economies showed negative within-industry productivity growth rates in 2020. While above-average digital-intensive industries outperformed belowaverage ones in both France and the UK, the US showed higher productivity growth in both groups compared to the European countries. Industries with medium-intensive levels of shares of employees working from home prior to the pandemic made larger productivity gains in 2020 than industries with the highest pre-pandemic work-from-home shares. The paper also experiments with US data on employment at county level by allocating within-industry productivity contributions for 2020 to urban, sub-urban and rural areas, showing that the contributions to within-industry productivity growth from manufacturing and other production industries in urban and sub-urban areas increased during the pandemic. Overall, after taking into account the productivity collapse in the hospitality and culture sector during 2020, productivity growth shows no clear deviation from the slowing pre-pandemic productivity trend. Future trends in productivity growth will depend on whether the favourable productivity gains (or smaller losses) in industries with above-average digital intensity will outweigh negative effects from the pandemic, in particular scarring effects on labour markets and business dynamics.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Work Culture, Pandemic, COVID-19, Productivity, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, France, and United States of America

184. Europe’s Missile Defence and Italy: Capabilities and Cooperation

Author:: Alessandro Marrone and Karolina Muti
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Europe’s missile defence is structurally linked to NATO deterrence and defence architecture, and it has to face both a worsened international security environment and an accelerating, worldwide technological innovation. Russia and China are heavily investing in new hypersonic systems which dramatically decrease the time needed to reach the target by flying mostly within the atmosphere. The US remains a global leader in the development and deployment of missile defence capabilities, including the Aegis systems which represent the cornerstone of NATO integrate air and missile defence covering the Old Continent. European countries are increasingly collaborating within the EU framework on the related capability development, primarily via the TWISTER project under the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PeSCo). Being exposed to missile threats from Middle East and North Africa and participating to allied nuclear sharing, Italy has a primary interest in upgrading its military capabilities through PeSCo, maintaining them fully integrated within NATO, and involving the national defence industry in cutting-edge procurement programmes.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Science and Technology, and European Union
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, France, Poland, Germany, Italy, North America, and United States of America

185. Cyber Defence in NATO Countries: Comparing Models

Author:: Alessandro Marrone and Ester Sabatino
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In 2016 NATO recognised cyber as a domain comparable to the air, land and sea ones, in consideration of the growing number of cyberattacks and of their negative impact on the cyberspace, as well as on the “real world”. Both NATO and its member states have launched initiatives to better tackle the cyber challenge both operationally and in terms of capability development. Nevertheless, among major NATO’s members a common approach to cyber defence is still missing, thus generating a division among countries that pursue a more active defence – US, UK and France – and those that prefer a more defensive approach – Germany and Spain.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, National Security, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Spain, and United States of America

186. The AUKUS agreement, what repercussions for the European Union?

Author:: Elie Perot
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: On 15 September, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced the formation of a partnership called "AUKUS", with the aim, among other things, of providing the Australian Navy with nuclear-powered submarines over the next few decades. This trilateral agreement, presented by US President Joe Biden as responding to "the imperative of ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific over the long term", serves the unstated but obvious purpose of counterbalancing an increasingly powerful, and sometimes aggressive, China in its neighbourhood and on the international scene. As such, the AUKUS agreement is not in itself fundamentally opposed to the objectives and interests of the European Union and, in particular, of France - the Member State that had been until now most strongly engaged in the Indo-Pacific in response to the Chinese challenge. Yet the announcement of the trilateral partnership between Canberra, Washington and London led to a particularly severe crisis with Paris, with France losing a major deal it had had with Australia since 2016 for the supply of 12 conventionally powered (dieselelectric) submarines. With the telephone exchange between Presidents Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron on 22 September, during which it was acknowledged that "the situation would have benefitted from open consultations among allies on matters of strategic interest to France and our European partners", it is possible that the worst of this diplomatic crisis is now over. The question now is whether this sequence, which at first sight was played out at the bilateral level between France and the three AUKUS states, could have wider and longer-term repercussions at the EU level. With this in mind, this paper first proposes to understand the new AUKUS agreement in its proper perspective, since above all it signifies a reinforcement of military industrial cooperation between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States rather than a true diplomatic revolution with regard to China. The paper then looks at the French response to this new partnership, emphasising that it was first and foremost the secrecy surrounding the formation of AUKUS, and not so much the resulting breach of the Franco-Australian submarine contract, that led to such high levels of diplomatic tension. Finally, this paper seeks to assess the extent to which France succeeded in bringing this crisis to the European level, with what consequences, but also what limitations.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia

187. The post-Brexit EU-UK relationship: an opportunity or challenge for cyber security?

Author:: Ellie Templeton and Robert Dewar
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: With multiple post-Brexit pathways that could still be pursued following the recent adoption of the new security agreements, the EU-UK cyber security relationship is still evolving. Value must be placed on collaboration to tackle shared cyber threats, the role EU institutions play in bringing cyber security actors together, and Britain’s former contribution to European security. These factors strongly indicate that, although new opportunities may present themselves, there will likely be irreversible losses for collective cyber resilience due to Brexit. In order to work towards a new, valuable relationship model, it is recommended that both the EU and UK uphold professional, transparent and non- political security cooperation going forward, whilst remaining open to flexible operational support in the unpredictable and ever-changing cyber threat landscape. Ultimately, within an international system affected by “instability, insecurity and uncertainty”,61 it remains to be seen what opportunities and challenges arise, and if the resulting relationship, whether based on one specific pathway or a combination of all three, could constitute an effective EU relationship model for non-EU entities in the cyber security field.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Cybersecurity, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

188. Factsheet: Tommy Robinson

Author:: Tommy Robinson
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Tommy Robinson is a British anti-Muslim and anti-immigration activist. A co-founder of the racist English Defense League, Robinson believes Islam is a “disease” and Muslims are invading Europe. He has been connected to trans-national anti-Muslim activists and organizations, including PEGIDA. Robinson has had numerous criminal convictions and is currently serving time in jail.
Topic:: Islam, Far Right, Muslims, Tommy Robinson, and English Defense League (EDL)
Political Geography:: Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS