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1. UK-EU Relations Tracker Q3

Author:
Cleo Davies and Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Released quarterly, the UK in a Changing Europe UK-EU Relations Tracker assesses relations between the UK and EU as well as relationships between the UK and EU member states. This edition of the tracker covers developments from July to September 2023. On 1 October, the UK government introduced the green-lane/red-lane system to ease the flow of goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland as part of the Windsor Framework. In the context of thawing relations post Windsor Framework, the UK and EU have reiterated their commitment to making the most of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). The political agreement on the UK’s association to the Horizon and Copernicus programmes was an important milestone. In other areas, the tracker notes that discussions are ongoing. On the future of the relationship, the tracker highlights a growing mismatch between debates on the two sides. Within the UK, the Labour Party have set out plans for building on the TCA in pursuit of a closer trading relationship. The EU, on the other hand, shows little appetite for revisiting the terms of UK-EU trade. Bilaterally, the UK has now signed general statements or declarations with most EU member states. The focus is therefore shifting from formalising relations to maintaining and implementing them. This requires continued engagement, which the tracker indicates can be difficult to sustain at the highest political level.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

2. Facing Pressure: Iran executes former Defence Minister

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Iran executed on January 14, 2022, a British-Iranian national who once served as its deputy defence minister, defying calls from London and Washington for his release. Alireza Akbari was arrested in 2019 and accused of spying for Britain. He served as a defence minister between 2000 and 2005 under former President Mohammad Khatami, and he fought during the Iraq-Iran war. He also served in other high-ranking positions in the navy and the ministry of defence’s research centre, and was appointed as the general secretariat of the national security council.
Topic:
Security, Elites, and Capital Punishment
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Iran, and Middle East

3. Welfare losses, preferences for redistribution, and political participation: Evidence from the United Kingdom’s age of austerity

Author:
Patricia Justino, Bruno Martorano, and Laura Metzger
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper studies the effect of austerity on forms of political participation—including voting, appealing for reform, and peaceful protesting—and the role of preferences for redistribution in shaping the relationship between individual exposure to austerity and political participation. The paper focuses on the case of the United Kingdom (UK) where, between 2011 and 2019, wide-ranging austerity policies were introduced to deal with high public debt in the aftermath of the 2007–08 financial crisis. Cuts to government spending on public investment, services, and social protection, especially during the initial fiscal consolidation phase of 2011–15, led to significant welfare losses for the population. We provide evidence from observational microeconomic data and a large-scale online experiment in the UK showing that individual exposure to welfare losses from austerity increases political participation and strengthens preferences for government redistribution. The experimental data suggests that changes in individual preferences for redistribution significantly shape the effect of austerity on political participation.
Topic:
Austerity, Welfare, Redistribution, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

4. Authoritarian kleptocrats are thriving on the West’s failures. Can they be stopped?

Author:
Francis Shin and Ben Judah
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
A hidden web of power revealed itself to Internet users in early 2022. Following a brutal government crackdown in Kazakhstan in January, anyone using open-source flight-tracking websites could watch kleptocratic elites flee the country on private jets. A little more than a month later, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought a new spectacle: social media users were able to track various oligarchs’ superyachts as they jumped from port to port to evade Western sanctions. These feeds captured a national security problem in near real time: In Eurasia and beyond, kleptocratic elites with deep ties to the West were able to move themselves and their assets freely despite a host of speeches by senior officials, sanctions, and structures designed to stop them. Kleptocratic regimes—kleptocracy means “rule by thieves”—have exploited the lax and uneven regulatory environments of the global financial system to hide their ill-gotten gains and interfere in politics abroad, especially in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. They are aided in this task by a large cast of professional enablers within these jurisdictions. The stronger these forces get, the more they erode the principles of democracy and the rule of law. Furthermore, the international sanctions regime imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine has little hope of long-term success if the global financial system itself continues to weaken. The West still has a long way to go to rein in the authoritarian kleptocrats who have thrived on the institutional dysfunction, regulatory failure, and bureaucratic weakness of the transatlantic community for far too long. We need to rethink not just how we combat kleptocracy, but also how we define it. Policy makers need to understand that authoritarian regimes that threaten transatlantic security are closely linked to illicit financial systems. As it stands, our thinking about how foreign corruption spreads is too constrained by stereotypes about kleptocratic goals and actions.
Topic:
Corruption, Diplomacy, Intelligence, Politics, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Reform, European Union, Regulation, Finance, Economy, Rule of Law, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, Canada, and United States of America

5. Building a Mature UK Trade Policy

Author:
David Henig
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Global Britain has not delivered according to the hopes expressed by supporters of leaving the EU. Trade with the rest of the world has not grown to make up for leaving a bloc with seamless trade, early Free Trade Agreements with Australia and New Zealand are of minor economic significance, and it is hard to discern much of a strategy beyond completing a few more similar deals. Meanwhile the world of trade policy is transformed since 2016, negatively. The US has essentially declared its national interests to be more important than global rules, while the EU wants to act unilaterally as the global regulator. In both, the climate crisis is being used as an excuse to reintroduce protectionist measures threatening economic damage and global stability. Expectations of what a UK outside of the EU could achieve were exaggerated, but nonetheless the country could be doing a lot better in its trade policy. There is no good reason for such tensions as exist with a broad range of frustrated stakeholders, the absence of clear purpose on UK strengths such as services, or the defensiveness that seemingly takes pride in secrecy and resistance to proper scrutiny. Adjustment time was inevitable, but six years should have been enough.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Free Trade, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

6. United Kingdom Engagement with North Korea

Author:
Alastair Morgan
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
As one of the Allied Powers, The United Kingdom was involved in Post-World War II planning for the Korean peninsula, including the November 1943 Cairo Conference declaration that “… in due course, Korea shall become free and independent.” However, US President Roosevelt’s proposal at the February 1945 Yalta Conference did not establish a formal role for the UK in the trusteeship of Korea. Subsequently, the United States and the Soviet Union agreed to divide the peninsula at the 38th parallel in August 1945, and direct British involvement in the peninsula was limited prior to the Korean War. The United Kingdom’s Korean War contribution to the United Nations Command was second only to the United States, with significant deployments of maritime and air assets in addition to the provision of ground troops. Almost 60,000 British troops saw action, with nearly 5,000 killed, wounded, missing in action, or taken prisoner. Following the armistice, the United Kingdom has continued to send representation to the United Nations Command. The armistice agreement includes an obligation on so-called “Sending States” to respond to renewed hostility. Although there is no automatic UK commitment to send forces, the armistice agreement remains a consideration in engagement with North Korea.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Education, Politics, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, and North Korea

7. The Return of the Foreign Fighters and Their Families to Their Homeland: Existing Practices and Considerations Regarding Security and Human Rights

Author:
Katerina Christoforaki
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
The creation of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has attracted an unprecedented flow of thousands of people from more than 100 countries all over the world to join their cause. After the fall of the so-called caliphate, the countries involved have to deal with the aftermath of the conflict and the future threat of the resurgence of ISIS or other terrorist groups. The people who volunteered and joined ISIS might pose a security threat in the future. This paper aims to examine the different approaches that countries have taken regarding the return of foreign fighters (FFs) and their families who joined ISIS to their homeland. This is a multidimensional and complex matter since it has legal, moral, and political implications, and therefore the decisions in this regard are never unanimous, nor do they come without criticism and opposition. On the one hand, it would be easier to just leave the FFs and their families there, prosecute them there and incarcerate them there. It would also be easier to collect evidence and to have testimonies of the witnesses and the survivors, and also it would keep the potential security threat away from their homeland. However, this would only be beneficial for the countries of origin and in the short term as it wouldn‘t solve the problem of radicalization. In fact, it might fuel it even more, and the proximity of the ISIS member in prisons or in camps could benefit them to rebuild their network and plan future attacks. Moreover, leaving them there would be against all human rights norms regarding the death penalty, fair trial, torture, rights of the child, and more. On the other hand, the return of the fighters and their families could indeed pose a danger to the security of the homeland. Not all of the returnees have committed punishable crimes and for those who have, very often there is not enough admissible evidence to the national courts. In fact, in the case of women and children, the countries are more reluctant to their return because they might have not taken part in the atrocities but that does not mean that they are innocent and bear no responsibility. Complicated is also the case of children and teenagers, some of whom have taken part in the atrocities willingly or unwillingly, some were brought by their families, some traveled alone in order to join ISIS, and some were born under ISIS control and risk statelessness.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Foreign Fighters, and Repatriation
Political Geography:
Iraq, United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Syria, United States of America, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

8. British Nuclear Policy

Author:
Peter Watkins
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Nuclear deterrence has been a major pillar of British defence policy since the mid-1950s. The United Kingdom maintains a minimum, credible, independent strategic nuclear deterrent force, assigned to the defence of NATO. Its purpose is purely defensive: to deter the most extreme threats to the security of the UK and to that of her NATO allies. Potential adversaries must thus take into account the UK’s nuclear capabilities when facing UK conventional forces deployed as part of NATO’s forward deterrence and defence posture, not least the UK-led battlegroup in Estonia. The UK does not see a contradiction between cooperation with allies and having an “independent” deterrent – its nuclear force is operationally independent and only the UK Prime Minister can authorise the use of the UK’s nuclear weapons, even as part of a wider NATO response. Today, the Soviet Union is gone – yet a weaker but more dangerous Russia as well as an increasingly powerful China create a potential “two peer” nuclear challenge. The UK is currently renewing its nuclear deterrent as the existing capability is aging – but continues to seek opportunities for multilateral nuclear disarmament as the strategic circumstances allow. In light of the international security environment, the 2021 change to the warhead ceiling reflected that. But the UK needs to ask itself whether bigger changes will be needed for the future.
Topic:
NATO, Nuclear Weapons, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Estonia

9. British Power in Baltic Weather: The UK’s Role in Nordic-Baltic Security and UK-Estonia Defence Cooperation

Author:
Tomas Jermalavicius and Alice Billon-Galland
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
For many decades, the United Kingdom has been an important player in the Nordic-Baltic region, and today it aims to increase its contribution to security and stability of the region. The UK has long been an attractive partner for countries in the region that seek to maintain strong relations with the geopolitical heavyweight possessing a similar outlook on the security environment, transatlantic relations, utility of military force, and the threat from Russia. Given London’s interest for global engagement and its limited means, ensuring continuous and reliable British involvement in the region is a priority for Nordic-Baltic states. This report analyses the objectives, priorities, and constraints of the UK’s defence policy in the Nordic-Baltic region at a critical juncture for Euro-Atlantic security, as Russia continues its war of aggression against Ukraine and China grows increasingly assertive in the Indo-Pacific. It provides the political and strategic context of British engagement in the Nordic-Baltic region, with a particular focus on the challenges that British defence strategy and capability plans face as a result of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It then explores whether other key security players, such as Germany or France, could eventually take a stronger lead in the Nordic-Baltic area and how that would impact the UK’s involvement and leadership. It discusses the arrangements aimed at enhancing the UK’s military footprint in Estonia — in the framework of NATO’s collective defence and deterrence — that were developed in the run-up to and after NATO’s June 2022 Madrid summit. This analysis is put into the context of expectations from the Baltic states and plans of the Alliance for stronger forward defence in the region that are subject to discussions in July 2023 Vilnius summit and may generate additional demand for the UK’s regional military presence. The report also explores how minilateral formats, such as the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), fit into the regional security architecture and how London seeks to leverage them to sustain its leadership role. Finally, it highlights some key aspects of the UK-Estonia bilateral defence cooperation and analyses its opportunities, challenges, and prospects.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Armed Forces, Deterrence, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Estonia, Nordic Nations, and Baltic States

10. How Russia Went to War: The Kremlin’s Preparations for Its Aggression Against Ukraine

Author:
Kalev Stoicescu, Mykola Nazarov, Keir Giles, and Matthew Johnson
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
This report examines Russia’s preparations for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine: domestically, in Ukraine itself, in the global information domain, and in building its relationship with China. For Russia, crushing Ukraine’s quest for democracy was central to meeting its objectives of reshaping the post-Cold War order in Europe and globally, restoring its own status, and reconstituting the Russian empire and Russian world. Its preparations in the political and informational, military, and economic domains for a full-scale war in Ukraine were too extensive and overt to go unnoticed, but they were not acted upon. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the evidence went against the dominant narrative in the West and was simply brushed aside. In the political and informational domains, Russia’s domestic preparations including cementing the regime’s authority, and taking advantage of the population’s Soviet nostalgia and aspirations for the restoration of the Russian world and the empire. Limited economic preparations were intended to safeguard Russia’s economy against current and future Western sanctions, while Russia’s extensive military preparations involved large-scale defence spending and extensive military modernisation efforts. Russia’s preparations beyond its own territory included: a campaign within Ukraine to divide society and discredit the democratically elected leadership; a campaign directed at the rest of the world about Ukraine, discrediting the country and its people as an object of sympathy and support in their resistance against Russia; and a campaign of intimidation designed to instil in western leaders and populations a fear of obstructing, impeding, or offending Russia. Russia also worked to build a relationship with China. China’s support is essential to Putin’s ambitions. But equally, China’s strategy for confronting the United States – which China cannot do alone – depends on Russia remaining at least a quasi-great power.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Development, Sanctions, Military Affairs, European Union, Resilience, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

11. Raising AUKUS’s Second Pillar: Integrating Uncrewed and Other Emerging Technologies into the Australian Defence Forces

Author:
Bryan Clark and Dan Patt
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
The Australian Defence Force (ADF) is aggressively pursuing a diverse array of uncrewed air, surface, and undersea systems to address capability gaps in today’s force and exploit emerging opportunities in new technology. Thus far, these efforts have yielded a few programs that have transitioned into operational use, consisting predominantly of uncrewed air vehicles (UAV) that support intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) operations. ADF concepts tend to constrain uncrewed system use cases by treating them as extensions of crewed platforms or units, such as the Royal Australia Air Force (RAAF) Ghost Bat program.1 These manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) concepts generally exploit the systems-level characteristics of uncrewed vehicles to provide crewed units with greater reach or persistence, as figure 1 summarizes. Because they do not carry human operators, strategists can consider even relatively expensive uncrewed vehicles attritable, and forces may lose these vehicles to combat or other exigencies with little regret.2 Uncrewed systems can operate for extended periods in severe environments or circumstances, such as space. And without human operators, uncrewed vehicles can be less expensive than their manned counterparts due to fewer requirements for life support, protection, live training, or multi-mission capability.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, Alliance, and AUKUS
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Australia, and United States of America

12. CTC Sentinel: May 2023 Issue

Author:
Paul Cruickshank, Abdul Sayed, Tore Hamming, Colin Clarke, and Mollie Saltskog
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
With Pakistan engulfed by political and economic turmoil, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)—better known as the Pakistani Taliban—is again growing as a threat. In our feature article, Abdul Sayed and Tore Hamming write: “With the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan, the TTP has obtained new more sophisticated weapons and relocated fighters from Afghanistan to Pakistan and is now turning its focus back to its war against the Pakistani state. Over the past two years, the group has gone through a series of mergers, strengthened its media and operational activities, moved away from the indiscriminate targeting of civilians in suicide attacks, implemented a range of new internal policies centralizing its organizational structure, and settled on a localized strategy. With a solid organizational foundation and its eyes set on the Pakistani state, the TTP appears ready to follow in the footsteps of the Afghan Taliban and take control of territory in Pakistan’s tribal areas. The Taliban victory in Afghanistan has emboldened and strengthened the TTP. With the Taliban in control of Afghanistan and sympathetic to the TTP, the TTP now enjoys a level of ‘strategic depth’ that is arguably unparalleled in its history.” Our interview is with Robin Simcox, the United Kingdom’s Commissioner for Countering Extremism. He talks about tackling violent and non-violent extremism across the ideological spectrum and the findings of the recent independent review of the United Kingdom’s “Prevent” counter-extremism pillar. Wassim Nasr recounts his journey through Idlib in late April and early May 2023 on a reporting assignment for France24. He met with senior leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, including its leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani, who told him they have definitively turned away from global jihad. In Nasr’s words: “You have a core jihadi group with core leaders saying, ‘OK, we don’t want anything to do with international jihad anymore.’ This is unique. It’s never happened before.” Colin Clarke, Mollie Saltskog, Michaela Millender, and Naureen Fink examine the recent targeting of infrastructure by America’s violent far-right. They write that “the increased focus and attacks on critical infrastructure by far-right extremists has the potential to wreak extensive, multifaceted societal disruption and damage, impacting communications, the economy, mobility, and basic human necessities.”
Topic:
Infrastructure, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Far Right, Jihad, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Political Extremism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United Kingdom, South Asia, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

13. CTC Sentinel: February 2023 Issue

Author:
Paul Cruickshank, Stevie Weinberg, Aaron Y. Zelin, and David Wells
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Thanks to Editor-in-Chief Paul Cruickshank for allowing me to take over this space this month as we commemorate the 20th anniversary of the founding of the Combating Terrorism Center, established at West Point in February 2003. Originally the vision of Mr. Vinnie Viola, Brigadier General (Retired) Russ Howard, and General Wayne Downing, the CTC has evolved into a trusted global hub for scholars, practitioners, and policymakers. At the heart of what we do are the Cadets of West Point, who have made the Terrorism Studies Minor the number-one choice of minors at West Point over the last 10 years and who graduate to lead our nation’s Soldiers in complex times. This mission is empowered by 20 years of teammates, donors, partners, and stakeholders around the world who ensure the CTC is delivering cutting-edge research and insight in the fight against terrorism. While the CTC has been a mainstay of the CT fight for the last two decades, I posit that the most important time for this team is now. As national security priorities and resources rebalance toward strategic competition, the CTC will maintain its focus on understanding current and future terrorism threats to our nation and to the world, ready to assist our nation and our allies wherever we are called. To all who have made this possible, thank you. In this issue, the directors of the Combating Terrorism Center over the past 20 years—Brigadier General (Retired) Russell Howard, Colonel (Retired) Kip McCormick, Colonel (Retired) Joseph H. Felter, Lieutenant Colonel (Retired) Reid L. Sawyer, Colonel (Retired) Liam Collins, Lieutenant Colonel (Retired) Bryan C. Price, Brian Dodwell and myself—provide our reflections on the contribution the Center has made to the counterterrorism enterprise. In our interview Col. (Res.) Omer Bar Lev, the former Minister of Public Security of Israel, discusses recent security challenges in Israel and warns that a potential third intifada is “getting closer and closer.” Aaron Zelin examines Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s ‘counterterrorism’ campaign against the Islamic State in northwestern Syria. As concern rises over the threat posed by older far-right terrorists, David Wells examines relevant data in the United Kingdom.
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Far Right, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

14. The Politics of “What Works”: Evidence Incentives and Entrepreneurship in Development Organisations

Author:
Pablo Yanguas
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Over the last two decades, national development agencies have committed to results-based approaches and to putting evidence at the centre of their decision-making. For evidence “optimists”, this is a much-needed corrective to past practice; in contrast, “pessimists” worry about ideology masquerading as science, and results-based approaches contributing to the further depoliticisation of development. This paper argues that reality falls somewhere in between these two extreme interpretations, and that the experiences of development organisations are varied enough to warrant further interrogation, not into whether evidence shapes policymaking, but into how it does so, and whose evidence matters most. The paper seeks to address these questions through an analytical framework that highlights the process of contestation between evidence agendas against a backdrop of policy complexity, professional barriers, and organisational incentives. A brief review of evidence from development cooperation agencies – with spotlight cases from Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom – reveals that institutionalisation and entrepreneurship play a critical role in enabling and shaping evidence-based policymaking. This leads to clear implications for practitioners, whose focus should be not only on getting the right kind of evidence, but on getting the politics of evidence right.
Topic:
Development, Entrepreneurship, and Incentives
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain

15. Using Risk Analysis to Shape Border Management: A Review of Approaches during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Kelley Lee, Julianne Piper, and Jennifer Fang
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The near universal adoption of travel measures by governments to control the spread of COVID-19 has proved controversial during the pandemic. National responses have been highly varied and frequently changing, and the use of travel measures—ranging from advisories and screening to quarantine, testing, immunity certification, and restrictions on entry—has been poorly coordinated across jurisdictions. Particularly in the early stages of the crisis, this created chaos for travelers and the travel sector, and caused significant economic and social harms. Many governments also failed to clearly communicate the rationale for using travel measures, the evidence underpinning them, and the measures’ role within overall pandemic response strategies. There is now substantial evidence that these measures’ early and stringent use by some governments during the initial stages of the pandemic slowed the importation of the virus and reduced its onward transmission. Yet, there is also growing recognition of weaknesses in the quality of evidence available to inform policy decisions. Evaluating the appropriateness of travel measures and applying them effectively during future public-health emergencies will depend on international consensus on methodologies that lead to a more harmonized and coordinated approach and to greater public trust in policy decisions. This report presents a comparative analysis of 11 publicly available methodologies used to assess travel-related risks during the pandemic—those of Hong Kong, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, United Kingdom, United States, International Civil Aviation Organization, International Air Transport Association, World Health Organization, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and European Union. It offers a set of lessons learned and recommendations, including a proposed decision instrument that could improve the use of risk analysis for border management during future public-health emergencies.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, International Organization, Governance, Border Control, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Global Focus, and United States of America

16. External Processing: A Tool to Expand Protection or Further Restrict Territorial Asylum?

Author:
Pauline de Oliveira and Nicholas Feith Tan
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Access to territorial asylum is under significant pressure in many corners of the world. Pushbacks at borders as well as pandemic-era mobility restrictions have prevented many asylum seekers from reaching their destinations. And new and ongoing crises, including those in Afghanistan and Ukraine, have highlighted the need to offer protection closer to where vulnerable populations live, and for high-income countries to find ways to share responsibilities with the low- and middle-income countries that host the overwhelming majority of people in need of international protection. This has led to renewed interest in external processing, which involves conducting part or all of the asylum procedure outside a destination country’s territory. Notably, even as countries such as Australia and the United Kingdom have adopted policies to offshore asylum processing to countries such as Papua New Guinea and Rwanda in hopes of deterring spontaneous arrivals, there is growing interest in using external processing in ways that complement existing territorial asylum and expand, rather than restrict, protection opportunities. This report—part of the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—highlights the opportunities that external processing offers as well as the challenges to its implementation and the risks it could pose to territorial asylum. It explores three categories of external processing policies implemented or proposed to date: humanitarian visas, emergency evacuations, and external processing centers. The report also identifies key conditions that must be present for external processing to occur in a protection-sensitive manner.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Governance, Refugees, Asylum, Visa, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Australia, Rwanda, Papua New Guinea, and Global Focus

17. The Technology Policies of Digital Middle Powers

Author:
Alice Pannier
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Digital technology is an element of power in the international system as well as an area for competition among countries. Considering the economic weight and political voluntarism of the U.S., China, and the EU, those three poles of power have received a lot of attention when it comes to their technology policies. This study aims to shift our gaze toward countries outside of the trio. Digital middle powers are those countries that are caught in the middle of the power play in an emerging multipolar international system where digital technology is a determining factor of power. It also refers to countries with established or growing clout in digital technology, and which are regional leaders or global ones in certain sectors. The study provides a qualitative comparison of the technology policies of nine of the digital middle powers: Brazil, India, Israel, Japan, Kenya, Nigeria, Russia, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. It seeks to reflect the diversity of national technology policies, as well as to identify those countries’ convergences and divergences with Europe, the United States, and China. Each case study introduces national technology and digital innovation ecosystems, data policies, and the state of digital infrastructure. These elements serve to examine the strengths of the country’s private sector in technology, the government’s regulatory capacity, and the degree of digital development. The chapters then look at how the digital domain is embedded in the broader dynamics of their bilateral relations with the U.S., the EU, and China. A first conclusion is that digital middle powers can usefully be differentiated between rising digital powers and established ones. Established digital powers have well-developed ecosystems, regulations, and infrastructure, but they are all having to renew and re-focus their technology policies to remain relevant. By contrast, rising digital powers tend to have budding ecosystems in digital services and mobile applications, and large ongoing infrastructure development projects, albeit with limited or patchy regulatory capacity. When it comes to foreign relations, the study confirms well-identified trends whereby the EU’s influence occurs chiefly through the elaboration of norms; the U.S.’s via the strength of its digital services and private sector investment, as well as strong bilateral security ties; while China’s growing influence is underpinned by large infrastructure projects. All the countries studied are attempting to balance their relationships with U.S., China, and the EU. None, save for Russia, has outrightly “picked a side” and severed ties with one or two of the blocs.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Strategic Competition, 5G, and Middle Power
Political Geography:
Kenya, Russia, Japan, United Kingdom, India, Israel, South Korea, Brazil, and Nigeria

18. Rebooting the Entente: An Agenda for Renewed UK-France Defense Cooperation

Author:
Alice Billon-Galland and Élie Tenenbaum
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The Franco-British Summit on March 10th, 2023, will mark a much-needed reset in bilateral cooperation, following years of strained relations. With a recently re-elected French president and a new British Prime minister, both sides are committed to making this summit a success and re-launching a positive agenda for bilateral cooperation. The summit, the first since Sandhurst in 2018, will focus on three key topics: migration, energy, and foreign policy. Defense cooperation will also be addressed, as it remains the cornerstone of the bilateral relationship, though it may take a less prominent part than on previous occasions. Rebooting the Entente: An Agenda for Renewed UK-France Defense Cooperation Download 1.38 Mo Several concrete topics for joint work should therefore be discussed and agreed, from strategic discussions on European security frameworks to joint operational deployments and capability projects. It is crucial to ensure that the symbolic reset of the bilateral relationship at the summit leads to a realistic yet ambitious defense roadmap, with concrete commitments and deliverables. As the Franco-British Summit approaches, defense cooperation remains the cornerstone of the bilateral relationship. As the war in Ukraine continues, it increases the rationale for resuming closer UK-France defense cooperation. Lessons needs to be drawn from the Lancaster House Treaties : overly ambitious and structuring plans are less likely to succeed than pragmatic, budget-conscious and ready-to-use projects. The need to prepare for high-intensity warfare opens new perspectives for capability development in all domains and for operational cooperation across the globe. This Briefing is part of a joint Chatham House-IFRI research project, the "Cross-Channel Strategic Dialogue", investigating prospects for UK-France defence and security cooperation.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and High Intensity Warfare
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, and France

19. Fossil Fuel Industry Phase-Out and Just Transition: Designing Policies to Protect Workers’ Living Standards

Author:
Robert Pollin
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper focuses on just transition policies targeted at supporting workers now employed in the fossil fuel industries and ancillary sectors within high-income economies. As a general normative principle, I argue that the overarching aim of such policies should be to protect workers against major losses in their living standards resulting through the fossil fuel industry phase-out. The impacted workers should be provided with three critical guarantees to accomplish this, in the area of jobs, compensation and pensions. Just transition policies should also support workers in the areas of job search, retraining and relocation, but these forms of support should be understood as supplementary. Within the framework of these broad principles, the paper first reviews experiences with transitional policies in Germany, the UK, the EU and, more briefly, Japan and Canada. A critical point that emerges is that these just transition policies do not provide the needed guarantees for assuring workers that they will not experience major living standard declines. The paper then describe an illustrative just transition program for workers that includes reemployment, income and pension guarantees, focusing on a case study for the U.S. state of West Virginia. The results show that the costs of the just transition program for West Virginia’s fossil fuel industry dependent workers will amount to an annual average of about $42,000 per worker, equal to about 0.2 percent of West Virginia’s GDP. I briefly summarize results from the seven other studies of U.S. states and for the overall U.S. economy. For the U.S. economy overall, the just transition program’s costs would total to about 0.015 percent of GDP. These findings demonstrate that providing a generous just transition program does not entail unaffordable levels of public spending. Robust just transition policies should therefore be understood as an entirely realistic prospect for all high-income economies.
Topic:
Political Economy, Labor Issues, European Union, GDP, Economy, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, and Germany

20. The Political Economy of the Cost of Living Crisis in the UK: What Is to Be Done?

Author:
Ozlem Onaran
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the political economy of the cost of living crisis in the context of the United Kingdom. The paper presents the long-term trends in the wage share, wealth inequality, labour’s bargaining power, and real wages in the UK. The first and second waves of inflation in 2021-22 are discussed presenting the trends in the profit margins. The policy responses by the conservative governments and the Bank of England are analyzed, and their limitations are assessed. The paper concludes with short-run and medium-run policy alternatives to the cost of living crisis
Topic:
Political Economy, Labor Issues, Inequality, Inflation, and Cost of Living
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

21. Monitoring Progress on the Women, Peace and Security Agenda

Author:
Robert U. Nagel, David Guzman, and Carla Koppel
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
To advance the WPS Agenda and monitor progress, in 2019 the governments of Finland and Spain initiated Commitment 2025 (C-25). The member countries agreed to track their efforts to increase the meaningful and substantive participation of women along nine specific commitments related to conflict prevention and resolution, negotiation and mediation processes. This agreement currently has 13 signatories: Finland, Spain, Norway, Iceland, Germany, Italy, Belgium, United Kingdom, Bulgaria, Namibia, Canada, Uruguay, and Argentina. The Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS) has partnered with C-25 members to track progress toward the commitments. To increase transparency and accountability while also providing metrics for progress, we collected and analyzed data on women’s representation in political governance, diplomatic, and peace and security institutions. We combined data from various sources to generate analysis and insights about the status of progress on C-25 commitments. Findings indicate that concerted efforts are needed to reach targets by 2025. Despite some progress, women’s participation and meaningful inclusion in matters of peace and security is still lacking. Governments can and must do better including and empowering women in peace and security institutions and processes. The data underscore the importance of continued dedication to women’s empowerment and the importance of holding governments accountable through monitoring progress.
Topic:
Security, Women, Accountability, Peace, Transparency, and Monitoring
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Canada, Finland, Norway, Argentina, Uruguay, Germany, Belgium, Bulgaria, Spain, Italy, Iceland, and Namibia

22. The state of public opinion: 2023

Author:
Tim Bale, Matthew Blayney, Rosie Campbell, Leonardo Carella, and John Curtice
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
A lot has changed since Boris Johnson celebrated ‘smashing’ the 2019 election. Since then, we’ve faced a global pandemic, two wars, and spiralling inflation and interest rates. Britain has lived through a tumultuous period. The same period saw Labour choose a new leader, whilst the Conservatives elected two. ‘Levelling up’ became the latest buzzword. ‘Partygate’ was followed by a series of allegations about impropriety at the top of government. Nineteen by-elections took place, for reasons ranging from resignations to recall petitions. As the cost-of-living crisis worsened, voter concern about the economy rocketed, whilst interest in Brexit declined. As we approach the next general election, understanding what the public makes of these developments, and how opinion and voting behaviour has shifted since December 2019, is crucial. This new UK in a Changing Europe report brings together over 45 of the UK’s top public opinion experts. They analyse both short and long-term trends that have shaped public attitudes and voting behaviour and will continue to do so in the run up to the next general election and beyond. The 36 contributions cover political parties, the four nations, key policy issues, voting behaviour and Brexit.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Elections, Brexit, and Voting Behavior
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

23. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker Q3 2023

Author:
Joël Reland
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the ninth edition of the regulatory divergence tracker, covering developments from August to October 2023. There are six cases of active divergence (where the UK, or some part of it, changes its rules); nine of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow); two of delayed divergence (where active divergence is delayed); and five of active alignment (where the UK takes steps to align more closely with EU rules, systems or programmes). In a what is now a recurring theme under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the UK has opted to delay some major cases of upcoming divergence.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, and Divergence
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

24. Exploring ‘Bregret’: public attitudes to Brexit, seven years on

Author:
Ines Wittke, James Frayne, Seb Wride, and Sophie Stowers
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Brexit refuses to go away. Over seven years since the referendum, and over three and a half since the UK finally left the European Union, the issue continues to generate headlines and spark furious debate. One reason for this is a sense that public opinion is still evolving. There has been much talk of ‘Brexit regret’ among Leave voters. Given this, Public First and UK in a Changing Europe decided to talk to Leave voters to hear from them what they thought. In a survey carried out in May and June 2023 and a series of focus groups held between May and September, a series of questions were posed to them about what they think about Brexit, how it has gone, whether they have changed their minds and what they think the future holds. This report describes the findings. DOWNLOAD THE REPORT
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, European Union, Brexit, and Society
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

25. UK trade tracker Q3 2023

Author:
Stephen Hunsaker
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The UK in a Changing Europe trade tracker is now being produced quarterly and in a new format. The new format trade tracker will focus on three key areas: UK trade and its performance relative to historical data; UK trade in a global context and how it compares to the G7; and finally, newsworthy developments which have occurred within trade in the last quarter. In this quarter’s edition, the trade tracker looks at how UK trade measures compare to 2019 as well as the proportion of total UK trade made up of trade with the EU. In addition, it looks at the UK’s trade balance and trade openness compared to the G7. Lastly, the tracker summarises the India-UK free trade agreement that has been in the works for the past few years, considering whether it is close to signing and what impact it might have on UK trade, as well as what elements are hotly debated.
Topic:
Economy, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

26. Reviewing the Trade and Cooperation Agreement: potential paths

Author:
Jannike Wachowiak and Joël Reland
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
On Christmas Eve 2020 the UK and EU finally agreed a treaty to regulate their relationship post Brexit. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement was provisionally applied from 1 January 2021 and formally ratified in April. Among its numerous provisions, the treaty contains Article 776 stating that, ‘The Parties shall jointly review the implementation of this Agreement and supplementing agreements and any matters related thereto five years after the entry into force of this Agreement and every five years thereafter.’ Within the UK at least, many are looking to this review to deliver significant changes to the relationship. This report examines those provisions within the TCA and reflects on what might or might not reasonably be achieved in the context of the review. The report proposes three models which the review could follow: a technical check, acting on unfulfilled commitments, and widening the scope of the TCA.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Trade, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

27. The investment gap: the UK’s efforts to replace the European Investment Bank

Author:
Peter Jurkovic and Stephen Hunsaker
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Following Brexit, the UK lost access to funding from the European Investment Bank. In this report, Stephen Hunsaker and Peter Jurkovic detail the impact this has had on the UK development finance landscape. The report outlines not only the role that development banks play in providing longer term financing for projects the private sector might be reluctant to support, but also the specific role the European Investment Bank played in infrastructure investments in the UK prior to 2020. It also explores the potential and ongoing implications of a lack of access to that investment despite the existence of a number of UK based banks intended to fill the gap.
Topic:
European Union, Finance, Economy, Brexit, Investment, Banking, and European Investment Bank
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

28. Policy landscape 2023

Author:
Ben Zaranko, Jonathan Portes, Mike Brewer, Paul Cheshire, and Carole Willis
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
What are the public policy challenges confronting the UK? What plans do the parties have for addressing them? To what extent are these plans fit for purpose? As Parliament returns from its summer recess, Full Fact and UK in a Changing Europe have partnered to produce a series of evidence led, research-based assessments of the key issues that politicians will confront. To do this, we brought together a group of leading experts from respected institutions including the Health Foundation, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and the Royal United Services Institute. We asked each of them to consider, based on the findings of their own research, the challenges the country faces in their area of expertise, the immediate and longer-term issues politicians will need to address, and the potential implications of any choices they might make. We selected the issues based on the Ipsos issues index, and added security, defence and foreign affairs, which did not figure amongst the public’s priorities in July of this year. The intention of the collection is to inform and not persuade. Each article in this collection is the responsibility of its author.
Topic:
Climate Change, Education, Health, Politics, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Economic Growth, Public Policy, Fiscal Policy, Housing, and Standard of Living
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

29. UK-EU relations tracker: April – June 2023

Author:
Cleo Davies and Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This is the second edition of the UKICE UK-EU Relations Tracker, covering developments in relations between the UK and EU and between the UK and EU member states from April to June 2023. This edition looks at key developments in the relationship since the formal adoption of the Windsor Framework on 24 March 2023 which had raised hopes for a reset in relations. Whilst some progress has been made within the framework of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), other areas remain stalled.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

30. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: eighth edition

Author:
Joël Reland
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the eighth edition of the UK in a Changing Europe’s regulatory divergence tracker, covering developments from April to July 2023. There are eleven cases of active divergence (where the UK, or some part of it, changes its rules); eight of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow); two of passive convergence (where the EU takes steps which align with UK rules); three of managed divergence (where the UK and EU make joint efforts to manage the implications of divergence); and one of internal divergence (changes in rules between different parts of the UK).
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Brexit, and Divergence
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

31. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: seventh edition

Author:
Joël Reland
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the seventh edition of UK in a Changing Europe’s regulatory divergence tracker, covering developments since January 2023. There are seven cases of active divergence (where the UK, or some part of it, changes its rules); two of active convergence (where the UK, or some part of it, aligns to EU rules); 17 of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow); and one of internal divergence (changes in rules between different parts of the UK). In addition, the Windsor Framework is significant case of ‘managed divergence’: a UK-EU agreement which alters the regulatory border between Great Britain (GB) and Northern Ireland (NI), as created by the Protocol.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Brexit, and Divergence
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

32. The British monarchy

Author:
Catherine Barnard, Frank Cranmer, John Curtice, Robert Hazell, and Ailsa Henderson
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
May 2023 will witness a landmark event: the coronation of King Charles III. Given the event’s significance, and the high levels of interest in the British monarchy that have been apparent since the death of Elizabeth II, UK in a Changing Europe and the Constitution Unit, UCL, have produced a report to explain the role of the modern monarchy and its place in the UK’s constitutional system. The report explains what the institution does and how it does it, and places the monarchy in its wider historical and comparative context. It provides a clear and accessible account of the monarchy and is intended as an indispensable guide ahead of the coronation. The report includes analysis from specialists on the monarchy and contributions from scholars who study UK politics and society and who examine the institution from their own specialist perspectives.
Topic:
Governance, Constitution, and Monarchy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

33. UK-EU relations tracker: first edition

Author:
Cleo Davies and Sophie Stowers
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This new UK in a Changing Europe tracker provides an overview of the state of relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union. The first edition, which covers January to March 2023, highlights the thawing in relations between the UK and the EU that has taken place during this period in the context of the agreement of the Windsor Framework in late February 2023. Released quarterly, the UK-EU relations tracker will assess relations between the UK and EU as well as relationships between the UK and EU member states. It will also highlight developments in British politics which may affect the UK-EU relationship, and internal dynamics within the EU that might shape its approach to the relationship with the United Kingdom.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

34. Immigration after Brexit: where are we going?

Author:
Anand Menon
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Immigration was a key, if not the key issue in the referendum of 2016. The last few years have seen the biggest shakeup in the UK migration system in at least half a century, coinciding with record levels of immigration across all the main routes – work, students and refugees. This report explores what has happened to immigration, immigration policy and public attitudes towards immigration since the Brexit vote. It examines the way in which the UK government has reacted to the ending of free movement, and explores the impact of new policies on immigration levels. It represents a state-of-the-art analysis of what has happened, where we have got to, and what might transpire in the future.
Topic:
Migration, Public Opinion, Economy, Brexit, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

35. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: sixth edition

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the sixth edition of the divergence tracker, covering developments since October 2022. There are six cases of active divergence (where the UK or some part of it changes its rules), 13 of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow), two of active alignment (where the UK and EU take the same regulatory steps in parallel), and five of delayed divergence (where either side postpones an upcoming case of divergence). This edition of the tracker finds that the UK has engaged in less active divergence over the past quarter. This is due in part to political instability, but also to Prime Minister Sunak’s emphasis on calming the markets and projecting a wider sense of political stability. The new administration has signalled its ambition to reform EU legislation, though in a more targeted manner than under the two preceding premierships.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Brexit, and Divergence
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

36. Where next? The future of the UK-EU relationship

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Six and a half years since the Brexit referendum, UK relations with the EU have still not settled into a coherent and consistent pattern. Partly, this is because the process of leaving itself took so long. Partly, too, because there is much still to resolve, not least whether the treaties signed will be fully applied. This report examines the contours of that relationship. It assesses both where we have got to and how the relationship might evolve. The reports sets out the state of play on trade, migration, public opinion, as well as the various party positions on the relationship. It also highlights the deadlines and decisions on the horizon in a number of areas, such as financial services, electric vehicles and fisheries. Finally, it examines the ways in which the TCA could be deepened, and steps that might be taken beyond the TCA – both unilaterally and through increased cooperation with the EU – concluding that changes to the relationship are likely to be slow and incremental.
Topic:
International Relations, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

37. Assessing the Risk of Foreign Influence in UK Search Results

Author:
Bret Schafer and Peter Benzoni
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
As the de facto gateway to the vast troves of information available online, search services play a critical role in the modern information ecosystem. They are often the starting points for people’s questions about the world around them, from the innocuous to the deeply consequential. The results generated by search algorithms can therefore influence everything from consumer behavior to people’s political and social preferences, often in ways that are imperceptible to users of those systems. Given this significant power, search services are also targets of those who seek to manipulate information to advance a particular, and at times malign, agenda. This includes those working for or on behalf of autocratic foreign governments, who can attempt to leverage search results to whitewash human rights abuses, attack opponents, or interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. The threat is particularly acute with well-resourced states that operate global state-backed media outlets, troll farms, and other state-aligned information outlets that allow them to exploit search services through strategic content production, search engine optimization, or intentional manipulation. DOWNLOAD PDF To evaluate this potential risk, we analyzed data over a 30-day period across six search products on four search services (Google Search, Google News, Microsoft Bing, Bing News, Yandex Search, and Baidu Search) to assess the prominence of foreign state-linked websites, or those that reproduce content from those websites, in search returns for queries related to topics of national importance to the United Kingdom. Importantly, we could not assess, nor was it our intention to assess, whether the prominence of any state-linked sources in search results was the result of deliberate manipulation by those states or merely the product of search algorithms determining that the content produced by those sites was relevant to a given query. We also did not assess the relative quality of any individual state media outlets. We recognize that state-backed information sources exist on a broad spectrum in terms of their authoritativeness and journalistic standards, and that a connection to a foreign state is not necessarily problematic and should not be viewed by search services as an inherent risk. In short, our efforts to understand the prominence of state-linked sources in search results should not be viewed as an attempt to document wrongdoing, either by the sources themselves or by the search services that surfaced those sources. In addition, although we attempted to select topics that were important to UK interests instead of those that favored the interests of any one foreign government, some of the chosen queries—notably those related to the war against Ukraine—were more likely to be the focus of messaging from certain countries. Results from this study should therefore not be used as comparative data points to suggest that any one state is more influential in UK search results than any other. Instead, the goal of this research was simply to gain a better understanding of how and how often content from websites with direct or indirect links to foreign states—primarily state-backed media outlets but also websites directly or indirectly linked to foreign governments or foreign intelligence services—surfaced in search results in the four constituent countries of the UK. Though we offer several illustrative examples highlighting specific vulnerabilities uncovered by our research, the bulk of this report is focused on assessing a potential risk of foreign interference by identifying the types of variables—from the topic searched for to the language used—that regularly generated search results from state-linked websites, without assessing whether the content of those search results is potentially illegal under the UK’s newly created Foreign Interference Offense included in the National Security Act 2023. We did, however, pay particular attention to the presence of content produced by media outlets currently sanctioned by the UK government, namely Russian state media outlets that were sanctioned after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Media, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

38. Transatlantic Trends 2023: Public Opinion in a Shifting Global Order

Author:
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, Martin Quencez, and Gusine Weber
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Transatlantic Trends 2023 presents the results of representative surveys conducted in 14 countries on both sides of the Atlantic: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Divided into five chapters, this report assesses public opinion on contemporary structural issues impacting the world order, transatlantic relations, security and defense, China, and global challenges.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
China, United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, France, Poland, Germany, Global Focus, and United States of America

39. The Lion, the Wolf Warrior and the Crossroads: UK-China Relations at a Turning Point

Author:
Matthew Brazil
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In early 2018, UK Prime Minister Theresa May visited China with a British business delegation, seeking a free trade deal and expressing optimism over Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formula for governing Hong Kong (Global Times, January 31, 2018; Zaobao, January 31, 2018). In her first foreign trip since moving into 10 Downing Street, she promised that the “golden era of relations” between the UK and China would be even better after Brexit (Xinhua, February 1, 2018). Since May’s visit, however, a great deal has happened to move UK-China relations in the opposite direction, with the PRC’s suppression of mass demonstrations in Hong Kong (Global Times, July 29, 2020); the implementation of the 2020 Hong Kong National Security Law that London sees as a breach of “one country, two systems” (PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs [FMPRC], June 12, 2020); the British riposte in offering a path to citizenship for Hong Kongers (Gov.cn, April 14, 2021); and the escalation of tensions between China and its trading partners, particularly the UK’s closest ally, America (FMPRC, September 24, 2021; Xinhua, October 5, 2021). The British establishment, like their American cousins, have changed tack on China of late. In June 2022, MI5 Director Ken McCallum and FBI Director Chris Wray gave a joint address warning business and academic leaders in Britain of the “massive shared challenge” posed by China (MI5, July 6, 2022). Two years earlier, McCallum said that if Russian behavior is like “bursts of bad weather,” then “China is changing the climate” (CIGI, June 2, 2022). Last November, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, referring to UK-China relations, said that “the so-called ‘golden era’ is over, along with the naive idea that trade would lead to social and political reform” in the People’s Republic (ThePrint, November 29. 2022). Even the pro-engagement business weekly Beijing to Britain admits that no one in the UK Parliament “believes that an enriched Chinese middle class will steer the country towards democracy” (Beijing to Britain, January 24, 2021). Britain’s conundrum in stabilizing commercial relations with Beijing while heeding American sensibilities is as difficult as at any time since Nixon’s groundbreaking trip to China in 1972. Meanwhile in Beijing, the decades-old ordeal of striving to play the British off against the Americans has become an increasingly uphill battle. In fact, much of today’s menu of bilateral issues between London and Beijing, with the Washington factor always hovering in the background, might be familiar to Clement Atlee, Winston Churchill, Zhou Enlai and Mao Zedong. That brings some predictability to the rollercoaster ride of UK-China relations, but unsettling variables have changed the course of relations and pushed London, not to mention the rest of NATO, ever closer to Washington. Specific aspects of the PRC’s increasingly destabilizing and aggressive policies that have rankled London include the removal of Hong Kong as a centerpiece of the UK-China bilateral relationship; and Beijing’s announcement immediately prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, that “the Sino-Russian cooperation has no limits, no exclusion zone, no ceiling” (中俄合作没有止境 ,没有禁区,没有上限) (Global Times, December 24, 2021; Gov.cn, February 4, 2022).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, United Kingdom, Europe, and Asia

40. What Growth Strategies Do Citizens Want? Evidence from a New Survey

Author:
Lucio Baccaro, Bjorn Bremer, and Erik Neimanns
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
While research on the economic characteristics of growth models across countries is now extensive, research on the politics of growth models is still in its infancy, even though governments routinely pursue different strategies to generate growth. In particular, we lack evidence on (1) whether citizens have coherent preferences towards growth strategies, (2) what growth strategies citizens prefer, and (3) what shapes their preferences. We address these questions through a new survey of public opinion in Germany, Italy, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, which exemplify different models. We find that preferences for growth strategies are consistent with other policy preferences and are meaningfully structured by class and retirement status, and to a lesser extent by sector of employment. At the same time, differences across class and sector are small, and a large majority of respondents across countries favor wage-led growth. This suggests there is a “representation gap,” since this particular growth strategy is in crisis everywhere.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Economic Growth, Representation, Macroeconomics, Comparative Capitalism, and Growth Models
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, Italy, and Sweden

41. The Socioeconomic and Gendered Organization of Social Reproduction in the Anglo-American Welfare Model: Transformations in the US and UK over Four Decades

Author:
Katherine Moos and Pilar Gonalons-Pons
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Drawing on both gender regime theory and social reproduction theory, this paper employs survey data to offer a quantitative comparative analysis of the socioeconomic and gendered organization of social reproduction in the United States and United Kingdom from 1973 to 2013. Our analysis focuses on household production, paid work, and government social benefits to examine how men and women of different socioeconomic groups contribute to household social reproduction. We combine data from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), the Multinational Time-Use Surveys (MTUS), and additional sources to construct an integrated dataset of harmonized household survey data. We find that household social reproduction in the US and UK reflect variations and path dependence within the Anglo-American model. While our results illustrate important shifts in the organization of social reproduction related to neoliberalism and feminism, we do not observe that social reproduction in either country has been fundamentally destabilized, refamiliarized, or degendered.
Topic:
Welfare, Socioeconomics, Gender, and Social Reproduction
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America

42. AUKUS A Look Back at The First Analyses

Author:
David Santoro, Bruno Tertrais, Ashley Townshend, Brad Glosserman, and Robert Ayson
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Announced just over a year ago on Sept. 15, 2021, the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) security partnership promised work on two interrelated lines of effort between the three allies. One entailed providing Australia with a conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarine capability. The other involved cooperation on developing and providing joint advanced military capabilities to promote security and stability in the region, including in cyber, artificial intelligence and autonomy, quantum technologies, undersea capabilities, hypersonic and counter-hypersonic systems, electronic warfare, and information sharing. AUKUS sent shockwaves across the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Some praised the new partnership, explaining that it would tighten the US hub-and-spokes alliance system and stand as a powerful deterrent to China’s new assertiveness in the region. Others¾with the People’s Republic of China in the lead¾were much less enthusiastic, even outright critical, insisting that it would create unnecessary tensions, possibly leading to arms races or crises, and undermine nonproliferation norms and rules. France was also deeply upset because AUKUS immediately led to Australia’s cancellation of a French-Australian submarine deal, without notice. In the days, weeks, and months that followed the AUKUS announcement, the Pacific Forum published, via its PacNet Commentary series, several preliminary analyses on the trilateral partnership, each reflecting a specific national perspective from throughout the Indo-Pacific and beyond. One year later, and as implementation of the AUKUS partnership remains ongoing, we have compiled these analyses into a Pacific Forum Issues & Insights volume. It is our hope that these publications will provide a basis for further study and additional recommendations.
Topic:
Partnerships, Multilateral Relations, AUKUS, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

43. A Reliable Global Cyber Power: Cyberspace and Germany’s National Security Strategy

Author:
Valentin Weber
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Germany’s major allies have declared their roles in shaping cyberspace. The United States sees itself as a democratic, values-driven cyber power ready to impose substantial costs on adversaries engaged in nefarious conduct. The United Kingdom strives to be a responsible cyber power that eschews reckless behavior. France aims to operate as a stabilizing power that counters a destructive Russia and other malicious actors. But what kind of cyber power is Germany to be? As it draws up its first national security strategy, the country can rectify its lack of vision and narrative for its domestic and international cyberspace efforts. This policy brief proposes that Germany espouse a sober focus on reliability that links its cyberspace strategy to those of its allies, thereby providing a vital anchor for Western cybersecurity. To do this, Germany should:
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Strategic Stability, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany

44. UK Must Engage with Argentina Over Future of Falkland Islands

Author:
Carole Concha Bell
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
For Argentina, it’s position in the decades-old dispute over the British Overseas Territory remains clear: Las Malvinas son Argentinas.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Argentina, South America, and Falkland Islands

45. Sign of the Times: How the United Kingdom’s Integrated Review Affects Relations with Africa

Author:
Zainab Usman and Jonathan Glennie
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In March 2021, the British government published a vision document: “Global Britain in a Competitive Age: The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy.”1 Previously, the government had issued documents on security, defense, development, or foreign policy, but this integrated review bundled together all aspects of policy related to a vision of a so-called Global Britain. This newly integrated approach to policymaking mirrors a strategic consolidation within the UK government, specifically the merger of the Department for International Development (DFID) with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to become a new Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). While the review is framed as a necessary response to a changing global landscape, domestic political considerations around the British exit from the European Union (Brexit) weigh heavily. The review also points to the current UK government’s inclination to prize geopolitical competition over a previous emphasis on global cooperation. Steep cuts to the UK’s generous foreign aid budget as well as the abolition of DFID have already drawn significant academic, policy, and media attention. Yet these actions are part of a broader UK strategy to redefine the country’s relations to the rest of the world, with significant implications beyond the controversial foreign aid cuts for poor countries, including those in Africa. The review will shape relations with a continent that has deep historical ties from the colonial era, a large diasporic presence, and long-standing economic relations with the UK. This analysis draws out the implications of the UK’s 2021 integrated review for African countries and recommends next steps for African and other international stakeholders to navigate the UK’s overhauled external relations strategy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Development, and Integration
Political Geography:
Africa and United Kingdom

46. What Next after the Death of Queen Elizabeth II?

Author:
Przemysław Biskup
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The death of Elizabeth II on 8 September closed her 70-year reign. In that time, the United Kingdom underwent deep transformation, including losing its colonial empire, as well as joining and later leaving European integration structures. The succession to the throne may contribute to a further weakening of the UK’s personal union with the 14 Commonwealth monarchies and the British role in this structure. The queen’s passing has also increased the risk of strengthening of separatist movements in Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Separatism, and Monarchy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and British Commonwealth

47. Germany and the UK: Perspectives for Deepening the Bilateral Dialogue on Development Policy

Author:
Niels Keijzer and Ina Friesen
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Germany and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) are the second- and fourth-largest providers of official development assistance (ODA) worldwide and are key actors in driving international policy discussions on global development in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the G7, the G20 and other key groupings and platforms. The development policies of both countries witnessed important convergence and detailed cooperation during the first decade of this millennium – a period when Western countries understood development cooperation as a source of considerable soft power, which was demonstrated in rising budgets and like-minded policy directions. The austerity policies that followed the global economic and financial crisis, and the UK’s decision to leave the European Union (EU) in 2016, have challenged the bilateral relationship in the development policy area between Germany and the UK. The UK’s departure from the EU has reduced the number of joint interactions and corresponding opportunities for identifying cooperation initiatives. Halfway through the period envisaged for the completion of the 2030 Agenda, both countries are adjusting their development policies, seeking to determine their future European roles and global development ambitions, but they remain key partners in global development. Both the UK and Germany have recently revised or are in the process of preparing development policy strategies as part of their integrated foreign policies – a reflection process which in recent months has been challenged to adjust to the implications of the war in Ukraine. The case remains strong for regular exchanges and cooperation on development policy between both countries, including by intensifying dialogues and resuming formal secondments between the FCDO and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). Two areas in particular offer good prospects. First of all, the UK and Germany should closely work together to deliver on the current G7 Presidency agenda – including the key focus on infrastructure investment, as initiated during last year’s UK Presidency. Other key opportunities for cooperation include gender and climate action, as well as the provision of global public goods. Secondly, Germany and the UK should seek to engage in and harness the role of the OECD as a provider of key standards for international development policy and as an important forum for peer learning. As key providers of global development finance, the legitimacy of its reporting system is essential to both countries’ influence and contribution to global development.
Topic:
Development, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Development Assistance, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany

48. EXPLAINING CONFLICT OVER INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL COOPERATION

Author:
Stephanie Rickard
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
Protecting the environment is one of the most pressing issues countries face today. Yet, nations disagree over how to achieve this goal. In international fora, states often fail to coordinate on protecting the environment. For example, for two decades, countries at the World Trade Organization (WTO), unsuccessfully discussed how to protect the ocean’s biomass. Governments spend $35 billion of taxpayers’ money annually on subsidies to support the fishing industry. Two-thirds of these subsidies directly contribute to overfishing—that is, fishing beyond environmentally sustainable limits. Yet, WTO member countries couldn’t agree on restrictions on environmentally-destructive fishing subsidies.
Topic:
Environment, World Trade Organization, Democracy, and Fishing
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

49. France and AUKUS: Bouncing Back to Live Up to Pacific Challenges

Author:
Jérémy Bachelier and Celine Pajon
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Back in September 2021, the announcement of AUKUS – the defense partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) was a shock to Paris. Not only it meant the brutal conclusion of a submarine deal signed in 2016, but it also provoked a major breach of confidence in France’s relations with its three key partners – shedding crude light on the divergences of approaches regarding the best way to salvage the rules-based order and address the China challenge. This initiative, intended to be a coordinated response to the Chinese expansion in the Indo-Pacific, called into question France’s strategic positioning in the region. One year after, however, AUKUS does not seem to have marked a major turning point regarding the French strategy in the Indo-Pacific, especially in the Pacific. After an immediate aftershock, France's bilateral relations with Washington, Canberra and to an extent London gradually recovered. Political and strategic discussions at the Shangri-La Dialogue in June 2022, the recent visits of the Australian Prime minister and minister of Defense in France and numerous bilateral calls at the end of Summer between French and Australian political and military leaders have pointed to a positive dynamic for an improved strategic cooperation in the region. Rather than prompting a radical change in the France's Indo-Pacific strategy, AUKUS highlighted a fault line between the strategic/political rhetoric level and the operational level of defense cooperation regarding the French engagement in this region. The multiple maritime security and climate change challenges in the Pacific Islands region require France to cooperate closely with its regional partners, starting with Australia, and continue to promote effective multilateralism. In addition, the growing risks of high-intensity conflicts in the vicinity of the Pacific Islands region, particularly in the Taiwan Strait and/or in the South China Sea, require for France to speed up the strengthening of its interoperability with its regional allies in the coming years and probably to decide on the role it would like to - and be able to - concretely support its own interest and allies.
Topic:
Security, Maritime, AUKUS, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, France, Australia, United States of America, Pacific Ocean, and Pacific Islands

50. Pari Passu Lost and Found: The Origins of Sovereign Bankruptcy 1798-1873

Author:
Marc Flandreau
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Verdicts returned by modern courts of justice in the context of sovereign debt lawsuits have upheld a ratable (proportional) interpretation of so-called “pari passu” clauses in debt contracts which, literally, promise creditors they will be dealt with equitably. Such verdicts have given individual creditors the right to interfere with payments to others, in situation where the sovereign had failed to make proportional payments. Contract originalists argue that this interpretation of pari passu clauses has no historical foundation. Historically, they claim, pari passu clauses never granted individual creditors a unilateral right to block payments to other bondholders assenting to a government debt restructuring proposal. This article shows this claim is incorrect. Drawing on novel archival research, it argues that pari passu clauses find one potent historical origin in the operation of a now forgotten sovereign bankruptcy tribunal, the London stock exchange. Under the law of the stock exchange, departure from ratable payments did create a unilateral right for individual creditors to interfere with sovereign debt discharges. In fact, ratable distributions provided the touchstone for the stock exchange sanctioned sovereign debt discharge system. What is more, sophisticated contract drafters availed themselves of the logic. The result was a weaponization of pari passu clauses, and their inscription into sovereign debt covenants in the 19th century. The article concludes that the modern debate on the role of clauses in sovereign debt contracts cannot be held without thorough reconsideration of the history of sovereign bankruptcy.
Topic:
Finance, Banking, Stock Markets, and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and England

51. Separating electricity from gas prices through Green Power Pools: Design options and evolution

Author:
Michael Grubb and Drummond Pike
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper develops a detailed proposal for an efficient way to channel the value of large-scale renewables, which have become much cheaper than gas-driven wholesale electricity prices, to consumers at ‘cost-plus’ prices. This would reduce the fiscal pressure on governments for market- wide subsidies and offer more stable support for consumers most in need. We detail how this ‘green power pool’ approach could interact with the wholesale market to ensure firm power, also bringing transparency to the cost of balancing the variable renewables output, and maintaining incentives for efficient supply and demand responses. We illustrate the approach with reference to the cost and volume trajectories of UK renewables backed by government CfDs, targeted initially to particular consumer groups, as a first step in a wider transition towards direct consumer access to cheap renewables.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

52. Mirroring its British masters: state and outsourced terrorism against the Maoist insurgency

Author:
Felipe Costa Lima
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:
The Indian state has been adopting controversial policies for countering the Maoist insurgency. Even worse, this behaviour seems to mirror British colonial attitudes against India’s population at some level. Consequently, this article attempts to understand this probable ‘paradoxical’ conduct. With the support of the post-structuralist theory, I discuss state and outsourced terrorist practices of the Indian state apparatus against this insurgency. To reach this goal, first, I try to explicate the concept of state terrorism and its application in India. Then, I analyse the historical development of the Maoist movement and India’s concrete policies of state and outsourced terrorism against this counter-hegemonic movement. I believe the British Raj’s colonial practices have had a deep dialectical influence on India’s state apparatus and major political parties to date. So, this inquiry may clarify the persistence of colonial practices within India.
Topic:
Terrorism, Insurgency, Colonialism, State Sponsored Terrorism, and Maoism
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, South Asia, and India

53. NATO Should Defend Europe, Not Pivot to Asia

Author:
Jan Gerber
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
In 2021, the U.K., France, and Germany deployed 21 naval ships to the Indo-Pacific with a stated aim of helping the U.S. shoulder the burden of collective security and sustaining the “rules-based international order.” Naval deployments by the U.K., France, and Germany are symbolic and unlikely to affect the balance of power in Asia. A European pivot to the Indo-Pacific draws scarce attention and resources away from defense issues in Europe. Instead of encouraging Asian forays, the U.S. should encourage its European allies to assume primary responsibility for European security, freeing the United States to focus on the Pacific, if needed.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, France, Germany, and Indo-Pacific

54. El Papel de un Reino Unido Post-brexit y su Nuevo Rol en el Africa Subsahariana

Author:
Juan Ramón Alvarez Cobelas
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Los políticos británicos del Reino Unido tras el ajustado triunfo en el Brexit prometieron a su opinión pública y a los dirigentes africanos que les quisieron oir, que una vez liberados del yugo político-económico que imponía la Unión Europea, las relaciones entre el mismo Reino Unido y los Estados africanos se abriría una nueva era de prosperidad mutua entre el mismo Reino Unido y el África subsahariana hasta el punto de convertirse en unas relaciones de igual a igual .El artículo trata de demostrar que ha ocurrido justamente lo contrario. El artículo examina los diferentes instrumentos de “cooperación” bien unilaterales, bien colectivos, por ejemplo, el “Compact with Africa, para llegar a la conclusión que los británcos perpetúan un cierto neocolonialismo maquillado.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, and Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, and Sub-Saharan Africa

55. África: Competencia y sustitución en un entorno estratégico de rivalidad. Introducción al número especial

Author:
María Ángeles Alaminos and Antonio Marquina
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Este número especial de la Revista UNISCI se centra en la rivalidad creciente entre Estados existente en África y pretende ofrecer una visión comprehensiva del papel de distintos actores internacionales estatales en el continente africano, abarcando tanto el rol de las antiguas potencias coloniales, como la expansión creciente de China y el auge de la presencia e intervención de nuevos actores estatales con intereses políticos y económicos en el continente.
Topic:
European Union, State Actors, Rivalry, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, France, Latin America, and United States of America

56. Post-Brexit EU–UK cooperation on migration and asylum: How to live apart, together

Author:
Alberto-Horst Neidhardt
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The UK’s withdrawal from the EU has created a policy, legal and operational vacuum in migration and asylum matters which undermines the interests of both sides. There is no more binding framework which defines responsibility for asylum seekers and facilitates transfers between the EU and the UK. Brexit also made it harder to devise and implement effective anti-smuggling strategies with European partners. Despite these gaps, a post-Brexit cooperation agreement is not on the horizon, with structural reforms pursued by each side reflecting conflicting priorities and a growing political disconnect. Following the 2020 proposals of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, EU member states are still negotiating a mandatory responsibility-sharing mechanism. Meanwhile, in April 2022, the UK overhauled its asylum and immigration law, undercutting safeguards for asylum seekers reaching the country irregularly. The same month, the UK government signed a deal with Rwanda to deport all asylum seekers arriving via the Channel – a move even the European Commission has criticised. Recent post-Brexit tensions over other policy areas, most prominently the Northern Ireland Protocol, have reduced mutual trust to a historic minimum. This makes an ambitious and comprehensive agreement over asylum and migration matters an unlikely prospect for the time being. Yet, as neighbours, the EU and the UK will continue to depend on each other to pursue their respective policy objectives in migration and asylum. So, despite living separately and facing numerous unresolved tensions, the EU and the UK can and should pursue a post-Brexit cooperation framework in these matters. Otherwise, they will both be worse off. As a first step, the two sides should focus on rebuilding trust. This can be achieved by pursuing less contentious goals within immediate reach, such as enhanced anti-smuggling efforts, while also diffusing political tensions across the board. Once an atmosphere of sincere cooperation is restored, as a second step, the EU and the UK should define a broader and more ambitious partnership. Safe and legal channels from the EU to the UK should be re-established. At the same time, equitable solutions for facilitating the return of third-country nationals from the UK to the EU, in full respect of procedural safeguards, should also be found. Although reciprocity would have to be at the heart of this new arrangement, the EU and the UK should go beyond a transactional approach, particularly by strengthening protection pathways and burden-sharing solutions, including with third countries, in line with their international commitments. The European Commission should take the lead in the negotiation of a post-Brexit EU–UK cooperation framework. This would allow the EU to speak with one voice and pursue clear and coherent objectives across the different policy areas concerned. The newly established EU–UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly should also be involved in the negotiations, helping to democratise the process and achieve a more balanced relationship in the interests of both sides.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, Brexit, and Asylum
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

57. Understanding the Red Wall: Politics and identity in the new electoral battlegrounds

Author:
Paula Surridge and Alan Wager
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The 2019 general election gave birth to a new term for understanding electoral geography, the Red Wall. This report, ‘Understanding the Red Wall: Politics and identity in the new electoral battlegrounds’, focusses on a series of focus groups conducted by Ipsos on behalf of UK in a Changing Europe with voters in seats across Yorkshire and Humberside, that had either been won by the Conservatives in 2019 or held by Labour with a significantly reduced majority.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, Brexit, and Society
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

58. British politics after Brexit

Author:
Anand Menon, Paula Surridge, and Alan Wager
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Drawing on the expertise of over 40 of the UK’s top experts on public opinion, British Politics after Brexit provides a comprehensive overview of public opinion in the UK. The landscape of British politics is as complicated as it has ever been. But if you are looking to navigate it then this report – exploring the public’s views across party politics, public policy and the UK’s constitutional future – is a good place as any to start.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, Brexit, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

59. Constitution and Governance in the UK

Author:
Anand Menon, Jill Rutter, and Sarah Overton
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The UK constitution and system of governance have recently been subjected to unprecedented strain. Brexit and Covid-19, in conjunction with the governing style adopted by the Johnson administration, have raised profound questions as to whether the norms and conventions that form the basis of the UK’s uncodified constitution are still fit for purpose. These are the issues that are brought together in this report, in which 41 leading scholars assess the impacts of Brexit, Covid-19 and the Johnson government on our constitution and system of governance. They discuss whether these arrangements, that have evolved over decades if not centuries, are sufficiently robust and fit for the purpose of governing a diverse and complex UK.
Topic:
Governance, Constitution, Brexit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

60. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: third edition

Author:
Joël Reland, Jill Rutter, and Anand Menon
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This is the third edition of the UK in a Changing Europe’s UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker, covering 27 cases of divergence since December 2021. There are fourteen cases of active divergence (where the UK – or some part of it – takes steps to move away from retained EU law), ten of passive divergence (where the EU legislates and the UK – or some part – does not follow), and three of procedural divergence (where the UK has to introduce new systems to manage policy absent substantive divergence). There are also eleven cases with an additional ‘internal impact’ label, to indicate where UK-EU divergence is leading either to divergence in regulation between different parts of the UK, or has some other impact on the operation of relations between the four UK governments.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

61. Post-Brexit imports, supply chains, and the effect on consumer prices

Author:
Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh de Lyon, Luisa Opitz, and Dilan Yang
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This report documents the decrease in imports and shows how the patterns of imports vary across sectors following the UK’s departure from the Single Market and Customs Unit at the end of 2020. The authors, Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz, and Dilan Yang, focus on comparisons between imports from the EU and imports from non-EU countries. Some products, such as fats, oils, and waxes, experienced a sizeable decrease in trade volumes with EU countries compared to those of non-EU countries in January 2021. Other products, such as minerals, experienced minimal deviation in imports from the EU versus non-EU. We also document that the timing of import changes varies across products: in some cases, the deviation occurs pre-TCA, and there is some evidence of stockpiling; in other cases, the changes only occur post-TCA, and can be either short term or persistent. The fall in imports from the EU will affect the UK economy through its impact on supply chains. Two-thirds of international trade is in products used as inputs to production. We show that imports from the EU fell for products that are used as inputs to production in many industries in the UK. For some sectors such as agriculture, fishing, and car manufacturing, there is evidence that imported inputs began to be sourced from non-EU countries pre-TCA. For others, including vegetable oil, animal fats, prepared animal feeds, and pharmaceuticals, the adjustments occurred post-TCA. Evidence suggests that increased access to intermediate inputs can boost productivity, so a reversal is likely to cause a fall in productivity. Imports also provide cheaper goods to consumers, as well as a wider variety of choice. Focussing on food products, we show that the drop in imports after Brexit caused an increase in prices. Products that were more heavily reliant on imports from the EU increased in price following the election of Boris Johnson in 2019, pre-TCA and then increased further post-TCA. This report therefore shows that changes in imports of goods from the EU have affected UK firms’ supply chains. Part of this change is driven by the adjustment costs incurred as part of the new trading relationship and is likely to be short term, but another part is likely to reflect a long-term increase in the cost of inputs from the EU, which make up a sizable contribution of total imports. This could have a knock-on effect for consumers who will face higher prices, and for workers whose jobs will be affected by adjustments in the supply chain.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Trade, Imports, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

62. The state of the European Union

Author:
Anand Menon and Simon Usherwood
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
In ‘The State of the European Union’, some of the most respected scholars working on the EU provide their analysis of its current state, looking, in turn, at member states, at the EU institutions, at a number of policy areas and cross-cutting political themes and at EU relations with key external partners. This is a crucial moment in the history of the European Union. It has taken on new responsibilities in the face of new challenges and now must deliver, whilst simultaneously managing deep and potentially debilitating divisions between member states. There is all to play for.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Regional Integration, and Institutions
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

63. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: fourth edition

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the fourth edition of the tracker, covering changes which have taken place since March 2022.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

64. The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill: context and consequences

Author:
Catherine Barnard, Joelle Grogan, Katy Hayward, Andrew McCormick, and Jill Rutter
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The UK government introduced a piece of primary legislation, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, in response to concerns over the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. This report explains some of the context to the Bill, the conditions in which it has emerged and its potential ramifications for Northern Ireland, the UK, the EU, and UK-EU relations. It also considers a number of ways in which the stand-off over the Protocol might be resolved. The report brings together the insights of several experts: Catherine Barnard (University of Cambridge, and UKICE), Joelle Grogan (UKICE), Katy Hayward (Queen’s University Belfast), Andrew McCormick (formerly lead official on Brexit for the Northern Ireland Executive) and Jill Rutter (UKICE).
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Constitution, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Northern Ireland

65. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: fifth edition

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the fifth edition of the tracker, covering changes which have taken place since May 2022. It finds there are 13 cases of active divergence (where the UK or some part of it changes its rules), nine of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK does not follow), and three of procedural divergence (changes in the systems for managing pre-existing divergence). In addition, there are two cases of a new category – legal action – where the actions of one side result in the other initiating a legal dispute.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

66. Levelling up: what England thinks

Author:
Suzanne Hall, Will Jennings, Lawrence McKay, Sophie Stowers, Paula Surridge, and Alan Wager
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
For all the discussion there has been about ‘levelling up’ and the problem of regional inequality in the UK, little energy has been expended in finding out how people feel about their areas, what could and should be done to improve them, and who they trust to actually do it. The following report aims to fill this gap. UK in a Changing Europe partnered with YouGov to carry out a survey of over 20,000 people from across England. This was the first survey of its kind on levelling up and regional inequality, and the first to assess the impact of changes to how England is governed, including the effect of the introduction of Metro Mayors. This survey was accompanied by a series of focus groups conducted by NatCen and King’s College London’s Policy Institute in Barking and Dagenham, Blackpool, Nottingham, Blyth and Barnsley – designed to capture the views of metropolitan boroughs, rural towns and coastal communities. The aim was to find out how people in England feel about their local communities, what policies they feel would be most effective when it comes to ‘levelling up’ the country, how they would like these policies to be delivered, and who they trust to deliver them.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Inequality, Economy, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

67. A beginner’s guide to the European Union

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe is launching a new series of ‘beginner’s guides’ – quick, easy guides to the most pressing issues, important institutions and divisive debates in politics and society today. We’re kicking off our series with a guide to the European Union, an institution encompassing around 47,000 staff, seven institutions, over thirty agencies, and a population of almost 450 million. It’s pretty complicated, to say the least. But here we have tried to set out ​in an accessible and straightforward way what the EU is and how it came to be, what its institutions are and what they do, the EU budget, and how the EU makes and enforces laws and regulations. This guide is perfect for those who are learning about European institutions and multilevel governance for the first time during their politics A-level. ​It will also be useful for undergraduate students beginning their studies in law, politics and economics who want to know more about how the EU interacts with their chosen subject area, or seasoned professionals who just want a quick reminder on how member states and European bodies cooperate on key policy areas.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, and Institutions
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

68. Manufacturing after Brexit

Author:
David Bailey and Ivan Rajic
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
In mid-2020, UK in a Changing Europe published its report on the effects of Brexit on UK manufacturing, and the likely effects after the end of the transition period. The present report is an updated view of where UK manufacturing stands after Brexit. The report finds: The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) helped avoid tariff barriers. However, non-tariff barriers have returned, and the end of the transition period has brought adverse impacts for UK manufacturing. The TCA does not fully replace the frictionless trade and market integration that existed before it. The main adverse effects have been: administrative barriers to trade (e.g. customs formalities, proving rules-of-origin requirements) disruptions to labour flows, both affecting certain manufacturing sectors directly (e.g. food and drinks) and indirectly harming manufacturing by damaging service sectors (e.g. logistics) that support it. The adverse impacts are for now mainly showing through reduced exports and imports to and from the EU (around 15% less for both, as compared to a no-Brexit scenario), and through some production disruptions. The ongoing conflicts around Northern Ireland probably represent the biggest risk to UK-EU relations, with the potential to affect the entire TCA in case they escalate. Potential benefits from Brexit have yet to be felt: – There has been some redirection of exports towards non-EU countries, but this has not compensated for the reduction in trade with the EU. The UK has signed only two truly new trade agreements, with New Zealand and Australia, the former still only ‘in principle’. Both countries account for a small fraction of total UK trade, and the expected benefits of the trade agreements with them are minor. Trade negotiations with the US are currently stalled. Whether there is more progress on the trade front in the future remains to be seen. If there is more regulatory divergence from the EU going forward, it will become possible to see whether it will bring benefits or disruptions to UK manufacturers. Any benefits that may potentially arise out of Brexit will not happen automatically. The UK needs an active, integrated, and well-funded industrial policy, within a stronger devolution framework, if UK manufacturing is to benefit from future growth opportunities. This is especially the case in the context of net zero, industry 4.0 and levelling up. The impact of Brexit on manufacturing is likely to be most profound in regions in the north and midlands. That in turn will make levelling up more challenging.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Manufacturing, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

69. Doing things differently? Policy after Brexit

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Brexit is done, but what does it mean? Doing things differently? Policy after Brexit brings together a number experts in their respective fields to investigate how policy and policymaking have changed in a range of sectors. We asked them to consider how changes so far compare to what was promised before Brexit, and to analyse what changes lie ahead and what their impact might be. Their contributions are divided into three sections: first, those policy areas (trade, immigration, agriculture, fisheries and subsidies) where Brexit compelled the UK to put in place alternative policies. Second, those retaining significant amounts of EU law where the government could think seriously about divergence (financial services, procurement, taxation, consumer protection, environmental policy, energy policy and aviation). A final section considers new or emergent sectors in which both the UK and EU are looking to dip their regulatory toes (climate change and net zero, data and digital, autonomous vehicles and bioscience).
Topic:
Agriculture, Immigration, European Union, Regulation, Brexit, Trade, Fishing, Subsidies, and Policymaking
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

70. An EU border across Britain: Scotland’s borders after independence

Author:
Katy Hayward and Nicola McEwen
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This report, An EU border across Britain: Scotland’s borders after independence, considers the prospect of an independent Scotland within the European Union, not as a prediction, but to illustrate how Brexit has profoundly changed the context in which independence is contested and could be realised. If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, the Anglo-Scottish border would become not just an international border between Scotland and what remains of the UK, but a new land border between the EU and the UK. Some of the crossborder arrangements for an independent Scotland that had been envisaged in the 2014 referendum would no longer be possible as a result of the UK’s departure from the EU. Because we know what is required by the EU at its external borders, it is possible to outline the border-related ramifications for an independent Scotland with EU membership. Such ramifications centre upon the land border with its closest neighbour.
Topic:
Sovereignty, European Union, Brexit, Borders, Independence, and Referendum
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

71. Estimating the UK's Return on Investment from an Ambitious Program to Incentivize New Antibiotics

Author:
Rachel Silverman and Adrian Towse
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Anti-microbial drugs form the backbone of modern medicine. Yet their lifespan is naturally limited; over time, use of these drugs selects for mutations that survive exposure those same drugs, driving “anti-microbial resistance,” or AMR. Already, drug-resistant infections kill an estimated 7,600 citizens of the United Kingdom (UK) every year. In the absence of sufficient research and development (R&D) investment for new antimicrobials, deaths from drug-resistant infections could increase dramatically in the coming decade. To address this growing crisis and solve market failures that prevent the development of new antibiotics, the UK has set up “subscription models” for purchasing antibiotics; this has been applied to two drugs thus far, and the model is under consideration for a broader rollout. In this note, we present the results of a modelling exercise to estimate the likely return on investment (ROI) from an expanded program to incentivize new antibiotics, assuming it is paired with complementary and proportionate efforts from the UK’s G7 partners. The results are necessarily imprecise due to several uncertain parameters, but nevertheless provide evidence of a very high expected ROI that is robust to different inputs and assumptions.
Topic:
Health, Science and Technology, Health Care Policy, and Medicine
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

72. Understanding the Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination in Nigeria

Author:
Helen Dempster, Jennifer Dew, Samuel Huckstep, Martina Castigliono, and Cassandra Zimmer
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration (GCM) calls on countries of destination to both expand regular migration pathways and take steps to increase the development impact of these pathways. Migration can have a positive impact on the economic development of migrants themselves, their families, their countries of origin, and their country of destination, if aspects such as integration, remittances, and skill transfers are prioritized. This paper, produced by the Center for Global Development (CGD) and the UK office of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), outlines lessons for the UK Government to implement if they are to increase the development potential of both their existing and new immigration pathways, particularly in the agriculture, nursing, and green technology sectors
Topic:
Development, Migration, Immigration, and Reform
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

73. The Case for Cooperation: The Future of the U.S.-UK Intelligence Alliance

Author:
Jake Harrington and Riley McCabe
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Over the past 75 years, the United States and the United Kingdom have built the deepest intelligence alliance in the world. Despite decades of cooperation, however, there exists today a significant misalignment between the strategic prioritization of this “special relationship” and the regulations, policies, organizational cultures, and technologies that facilitate its day-to-day activities. This report’s recommendations are designed to encourage the adoption of policies, procedures, and tools that will enable the United States and the United Kingdom to achieve the deep level of collaboration they have repeatedly committed to in bilateral agreements, national security strategies, and intelligence guidance. If allies and partners are an indispensable pillar of both nations’ strategies to challenge rising and revanchist authoritarianism and other threats, then the U.S. and UK intelligence communities should jointly pursue robust interoperability that appropriately balances risk with opportunity.
Topic:
Intelligence, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America

74. Are the effects of terrorism short-lived?

Author:
Vincenzo Bove, Georgios Efthyvoulou, and Harry Pickard
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Numerous studies demonstrate that terrorism causes strong public reactions immediately after the attack, with important implications for democratic institutions and individual well-being. Yet, are these effects short-lived? We answer this question using a quasi-experimental design and data on three successful and three foiled terrorist attacks in the United Kingdom. We find that heightened risk perceptions and emotional reactions in the wake of successful attacks do not dissipate in the very short run but are sustained over time and up to 130 days after the attacks. We also find that, whereas large-scale attacks cause a long-lasting shift in risk assessments and emotions, the corresponding effect of smaller-scale terrorism incidents appears to subside within one month. Interestingly, foiled attacks can also affect public perceptions, which, however, quickly return to normal levels. We argue that the extent of media coverage is partly responsible for the duration of these effects.
Topic:
Terrorism, Emotions, and Risk
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

75. Time for Fresh Thinking on Northern Ireland and Brexit

Author:
David Henig
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The Good Friday / Belfast Agreement became, with considerable efforts over several years from so many involved, a broadly accepted if never fully stable political framework for Northern Ireland. A year after implementation, the prospect of the Northern Ireland Protocol delivering similar results is diminishing. Instead, there is a risk it entrenches divisions in which all sides believe others, not themselves, must be the ones to compromise most. Such divisions around the Protocol have spread beyond the land and sea borders of Northern Ireland, increasingly overshadowing relationships between the UK and the EU, and the UK and the US. These are not in any of their wider interests. Talk of trade wars in Europe cannot strengthen any economy, while the UK’s diplomatic relationships with the US remain strained. Finding unity on huge questions like Russia-Ukraine becomes harder against this backdrop. To varying degrees, all of the parties involved in the Northern Ireland Protocol discussions were involved in reaching the 1998 Agreement that ended the 30-year period known as ‘the troubles’. Drawing on the lessons from that time and the arrangements they put in place, there is a need for a new political process, outside of technical discussions on trade matters within the Protocol. A new shared endeavour is needed to resolve what otherwise threatens to be a long and damaging Northern Ireland and Brexit stalemate.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Brexit, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Northern Ireland

76. The UK's First Comprehensive Space Strategy

Author:
Aleksandra Kozioł
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The development of a comprehensive space strategy that encompasses civil and military aspects is in line with the British global strategy adopted last year. Its main goal is to strengthen the domestic space sector in the face of increasing competition on world markets and to make the United Kingdom one of the leaders in this field. The implementation of the strategy will be supported by increased funding, but without setting investment priorities and establishing closer cooperation with allies, including European countries, it will be difficult to achieve the objectives.
Topic:
Markets, Space, Strategic Competition, and Military
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

77. An analysis of central bank decision-making

Author:
Maria Demertzis, Catarina Martina, and Nicola Viegi
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The process by which central banks take decisions has evolved over the years, with a tendency towards independence and decisions taken by committees rather than individuals. Monetary policy committees can be set up formally in different ways, traditionally falling into one of two categories: individualistic or collegial. Individualistic committees reach decisions by voting and publish the votes of each of their members, while in collegial committees, decisions are typically reached collectively. The European Central Bank is an example of the latter, while the Bank of England follows an individualistic approach. Focusing on decision-making, a relevant question is whether the formal set-up in practice leads to different ways of deliberating and reaching monetary policy decisions. We look at decisions taken by the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank over more than 20 years to evaluate how different the decision-making process is in these three central banks. The results indicate that, irrespective of the committee type, their approach to consensus building when they take decisions is similar. The three central banks seem to value reaching decisions by unanimity, both on interest rates – the prime monetary policy instrument by definition – and on asset purchases. Decisions to tighten monetary policy are more often taken unanimously than decisions to ease monetary policy. When maintaining policy unchanged, decisions are usually backed by most committee members.
Topic:
Federal Reserve, Finance, Central Bank, European Central Bank, Decision-Making, and Bank of England
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America

78. UK, Australia and ASEAN cooperation for safer seas: A case for elevating the cyber–maritime security nexus

Author:
Huong Le Thu and Bart Hogeveen
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
A safe and secure Indo-Pacific maritime domain is vital to the UK, Australia and Southeast Asian states for their national prosperity. While there are common objectives, the three parties have different priorities, capabilities and areas of expertis. There’s a long history of multilateral cooperation between Southeast Asia and Australia, among other key partners. In the post-Brexit context and in the light of the UK Government’s Indo-Pacific tilt, London would do well to harmonise its maritime engagements with allies such as Australia and align its activities with priorities of Southeast Asian partners. While maritime security cooperation at sea tends to be dominated by activities, programs and operations of navies, we recommend taking a comprehensive approach to maritime security cooperation that includes partnerships with non-military actors and considers civilian-related aspects of maritime security. In finding a value-added role in the crowded space of maritime security cooperation and capacity building, we suggest exploring UK–Australia–ASEAN cooperation on issues of technology, cybersecurity and maritime-based digital infrastructure. Those are transformational aspects that will define the future of maritime activities in the Indo-Pacific and affect Southeast Asia’s safety, security, livelihoods and regional economic competitiveness. This scoping report recommends UK–Australia–ASEAN cooperation to elevate and further explore the cyber–maritime security nexus.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Cybersecurity, Maritime, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Australia, and Indo-Pacific

79. AUKUS Update #1: May 2022

Author:
Marcus Hellyer and Ben Stevens
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
On the 16th of September 2021, the leaders of Australia, the UK and the US announced the creation of a new trilateral security partnership called ‘AUKUS’—Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. The three national leaders stated, ‘We will foster deeper integration of security and defense-related science, technology, industrial bases, and supply chains. And in particular, we will significantly deepen cooperation on a range of security and defense capabilities.’ At a time of rapidly increasing strategic uncertainty, when it’s increasingly clear that authoritarian regimes are willing to use military power to achieve their goals, it’s important to monitor the implementation of AUKUS so that governments and the public can assess whether it’s achieving the goal of accelerating the fielding of crucial military technologies. To track the implementation of AUKUS, ASPI will publish regular updates on progress. This is the first of those updates.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, Alliance, and AUKUS
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

80. R (Begum) v Special Immigration Appeals Commission; R (Begum) v Secretary of State for the Home Department; Begum v Secretary of State for the Home Department [2021] UKSC 7, [2021] AC 765

Author:
Eric Fripp
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
The decision of the Supreme Court represents yet another prompt to reflection asto the very wide provision for deprivation of British citizenship bytheSSHD undertheBNA 1981s 40(2). By making clear the paucity of domestic law restraints upon the SSHD, the decision may ultimately have the effect of moving attention to the question—which the Supreme Court did not address —of whether domestic law safeguards, if not reformed, might be found so insufficient as to fall short of the international law norm prohibiting arbitrary deprivation of nationality, which the European Court of Human Rights in recent cases has been willing to find applicable through the broader art 8 ECHRrights. That question looms over the future but will,for the moment,remain unresolved. It also raises important questions concerning the absence of protection from serious harms which may, given the technical nature of the statelessness definition, not be alleviated by protection from statelessness, and leaves to be resolved on the facts of future cases important issues of child law, including the international human rights protections of the CRC89.
Topic:
Law, Children, Citizenship, Courts, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

81. New Labour, New Britain: In Conversation with Lord Mandelson

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
n the final session of the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference on 6 May 2022, Dr Robert Saunders was joined by Lord Mandelson to talk about his time as Neil Kinnock's Director of Communications, his ministerial career during Tony Blair and Gordon Brown's premierships, and his reflections on the state of the Labour Party in 2022.
Topic:
Governance, Domestic Politics, Domestic Policy, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

82. New Labour, New Britain: Audience Q&A on Where Next for Labour

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In the third panel session of the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference, Dr Lise Butler, Harry Quilter-Pinner, Professor Eunice Goes and Labour MPs, Rupa Huq and Stella Creasy, answer questions from our in-person audience on 'Where Next for the Labour Party'.
Topic:
Governance, Domestic Politics, Opposition, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

83. New Labour, New Britain: Professor Eunice Goes

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In this panel event from the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference, Professor Eunice Goes considers the position that the Labour Party finds itself in today and asks where next for the Party under Keir Starmer's leadership.
Topic:
Governance, Domestic Politics, Opposition, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

84. New Labour, New Britain: Stella Creasy MP

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In this panel event from the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference, Stella Creasy (MP for Walthamstow) considers the position that the Labour Party finds itself in today, reflects on the state of British politics in 2022 and asks where next for the Party under Keir Starmer's leadership.
Topic:
Governance, Domestic Politics, Opposition, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

85. New Labour, New Britain: Harry Quilter-Pinner

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In this panel event from the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference, Harry Quilter-Pinner from the Institute for Public Policy Research considers the position that the Labour Party finds itself in today and asks where next for the Party under Keir Starmer's leadership.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

86. New Labour, New Britain: Rupa Huq MP

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In this panel event from the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference, Rupa Huq (MP for Ealing Central and Acton) considers the position that the Labour Party finds itself in today and reflects on her time in Parliament since 2015 and her years of involvement in Labour politics.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

87. New Labour, New Britain: Dr Lise Butler

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In this panel event from the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference, Dr Lise Butler considers the position that the Labour Party finds itself in today and asks where next for the Party under Keir Starmer's leadership.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

88. New Labour, New Britain: Q&A about the ‘Blair Revolution’ in British Politics

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
Following a panel discussion at the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference, Polly Toynbee, Will Hutton and Sunder Katwala answer questions from our in-person audience about the extent to which New Labour effected a 'Blair Revolution' in British politics.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

89. New Labour, New Britain: Will Hutton

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In this panel discussion from the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference, Will Hutton reflects on the achievements and failings of Tony Blair's governments and considers whether he affected a 'Blair Revolution' in British politics and society.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

90. New Labour, New Britain: Sunder Katwala

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
n this panel discussion from the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference, Sunder Katwala considers whether there was a 'Blair Revolution' in British politics, how the Blair-Brown administrations changed Britain and how important identity has been to contemporary political discourse.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, Transition, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

91. New Labour, New Britain: Polly Toynbee

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In this panel event from the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference, Polly Toynbee considers whether there was a 'Blair Revolution' in British politics and reflects on her own experiences of campaigning and reporting during the 1980s and 1990s.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

92. 'Between the Obsolete and the Utopian': David Miliband Lecture at the Mile End Institute, 6 May 2022

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
n his Keynote Address to the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference, the former Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, explores the significance of the 1997 Election and the New Labour 'Project', before considering what the Labour Party can learn from 1997 twenty-five years on.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

93. 'Between the Obsolete and the Utopian': David Miliband Q&A on Friday 6 May 2022

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
Following his Keynote Address to the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference on Friday 6 May 2022, David Miliband took questions from our in-person audience about his time in both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown's governments as well as his thoughts on the future of the Labour Party.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

94. New Labour, New Britain: Professor Matthew Hilton introduces the Rt Hon David Miliband

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
On Friday 6 May 2022, Professor Matthew Hilton (Vice Principal for Humanities and Social Sciences) introduces the Rt Hon David Miliband, who delivered the Keynote Address at the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference to mark the 25th anniversary of New Labour's landslide victory in the 1997 General Election.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

95. New Labour, New Britain: Audience Q&A on Modernisation and Change in the 1997 Campaign

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In the first session of the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference, Dame Margaret Hodge, Professor Sarah Childs, Caroline Flint and John McTernan answer questions from our in-person audience on 'Modernisation and Change' on the Road to the 1997 Election.
Topic:
Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

96. New Labour, New Britain: Dame Margaret Hodge

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
n the first session of the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference on 'Modernisation and Change in the 1997 Campaign', Dame Margaret Hodge reflects on the fall-out from the Wilson and Callaghan governments, how the Labour Party changed before 1997 and the contribution of Local Government to New Labour's landslide in May 1997.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Leadership, Local, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

97. New Labour, New Britain: John McTernan

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In the first session of the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference on 'Modernisation and Change in the 1997 Campaign', the journalist, John McTernan, reflects on the significance of the 1997 election and his time as Director of Political Operations for Tony Blair from 2005 to 2007.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Leadership, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

98. New Labour, New Britain: Professor Sarah Childs

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In the first session of the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference on 'Modernisation and Change in the 1997 campaign', Professor Sarah Childs reflects on the 'watershed' importance of New Labour in advancing the number of women in Parliament and considers whether New Labour fundamentally changed how women feel about politics and Britain's political institutions.
Topic:
Governance, Domestic Politics, Feminism, Gender, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

99. New Labour, New Britain: Rt Hon Caroline Flint

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In the first session of the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference on 'Modernisation and Change in the 1997 Campaign', the former MP for Don Valley, Caroline Flint, reflects on how New Labour changed the Labour Party and her experiences serving in the Blair and Brown governments.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

100. New Labour, New Britain: Professor Tim Bale on the result of the 1997 General Election

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In this presentation, Professor Tim Bale explores the result of the 1997 General Election and considers how New Labour changed the electoral geography of the United Kingdom.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe